Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 363 - 9/30/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 363 - 9/30/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:20
Hello and welcome to episode 363 of the All Systems Go sports
0:26
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:29
I am your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:37
Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena,
0:40
guys. The final day in the month of
0:42
September. So let's see if we can finish
0:44
off the month on a high note. We got a lot to get to on
0:47
today's podcast because we do have the beginning of the Major
0:51
League Baseball postseason. So there are someday sweats
0:55
going on right now. There's a couple games coming up
0:57
tonight. I'm going to tell you why.
0:59
I'm going to root for the Red Sox but not bet on them.
1:01
I'm not going to bet against them.
1:02
I'm just going to root for them like a fan because there's
1:04
something that is a bit red flaggy here for this game, but I
1:08
do have a play on the other game, so Cincinnati and the LA
1:11
Dodgers, so stay tuned for that. So we will have of course, one
1:15
Major League Baseball play here for tonight.
1:17
And then also we try to use our our downtime throughout the week
1:20
to our advantage. And today's a Tuesday.
1:22
That means we're going to talk some early college football line
1:25
movement. So I did find 3 early plays that
1:28
caught my eye. These are all of the three most
1:30
heavily bet games coming up on Saturday.
1:32
Can you believe we're actually at college Football Week 6?
1:35
Unbelievable. The season's flying by here.
1:37
But either way, guys, we're going to try to put in some
1:40
work. And the whole point of betting
1:41
some of these games earlier than usual is trying to get good
1:44
numbers, trying to get hooks, key numbers before they fall,
1:48
identifying sharp plays with hopefully a rhythm edge.
1:51
You can always add that cherry on top, which is always nice,
1:53
where Rhythm says, you know, hey, this dog is plus 7 1/2.
1:56
Rhythm says they should be plus 5.9.
1:58
Boom. That gives us more confidence to
2:00
play the dog because the AI model is telling us that we have
2:03
located an edge. So 3 plays in college tomorrow,
2:06
of course we'll do 3 plays in the NFL, but it's all baseball,
2:09
it's all college football today. And that is quite all right with
2:12
me now looking back toward yesterday, guys, nice win one
2:16
and O plus 0.69 units with the dolphins money line.
2:20
So only made one bet, but we're able to cash it and only the
2:23
dolphins. You know, I'm a dog better.
2:25
Typically I'm a dog contrarian better.
2:26
That's that's really 9 times out of 10 the play that I'll make.
2:30
But I think you don't want to be a 1 trick pony.
2:31
You want to be able to read the market and not force something
2:34
just because it's your style. So for me, the reason why we
2:37
talked about on the pod yesterday going with Miami is
2:40
the market was telling us all movement and liability was
2:42
toward Miami. They open -2 1/2 -, 110.
2:45
They got juiced up. They never went down to two, but
2:47
they got juiced up toward three. That a really good bet split at
2:50
Circa and we had all these really good favorite straight up
2:53
trends, favorites on the year now 44 and 18 straight up 71% to
2:58
a Remember, he was 25 and 9 straight up at home in his
3:02
career. Now he's 26 and 9.
3:04
He was 5 and O against The Jets. Now he's 6 and O against The
3:06
Jets. What we really liked was the
3:08
fact that we had that rest first tired advantage or maybe just a
3:11
rest advantage because we had the Dolphins playing on a
3:13
Thursday, Jets played on a Sunday and were playing their
3:16
second game on the road. So kind of all adding that up as
3:20
well as the fact that rhythm I believe had Miami around -3
3:23
anyway said, hey, we got a good opportunity, especially on the
3:26
money line. I know sometimes you look back
3:28
and say, you know, why did I lay -145 on the money line when
3:32
obviously the Dolphins ended up winning by 6 and you could have
3:35
laid the two and half. I wouldn't kind of psych
3:37
yourself out with that. Just be happy.
3:39
You want to bet, you know, if, if you could, if you get a great
3:41
cheeseburger, don't be like, yeah, but I wanted 2
3:44
cheeseburgers. No, enjoy the cheeseburger you
3:46
got cuz you want it fair and square.
3:47
And wins are not easy. They're hard to come by.
3:49
So again, the for me money line short favorites protects you.
3:54
Jets did have the ball late with a chance to maybe you know, dash
3:58
our hopes there, but looking at that money line split at Serco
4:01
member only 40% bets 86% dollars are on that money line.
4:05
So it was a good finish off to the week there in the NFL with a
4:09
winner winner chicken dinner with the Miami Dolphins.
4:12
So turning the page here guys. I want to start off with some
4:15
college football and then we'll finish up here with my one play.
4:18
If you'd like to join me for for MLB playoffs here tonight, but
4:23
as always trying to pick off, as I mentioned a second ago, hooks
4:26
key numbers, you know, monitor the market.
4:28
What's the early movement saying?
4:30
And then, hey, if we identify something sharp, the question
4:33
is, do we bet it now or do we wait because you think the line
4:35
might get a little bit better? So with that being said, here
4:38
are the three early bets that I've made.
4:40
I've made all these in pockets. So I'm I'm I'm committed here
4:43
with these with these numbers. So first one I jumped that
4:46
jumped out to me noon on Saturday, Iowa State in
4:49
Cincinnati. This one is a gross one, but
4:51
boy, it's it's pretty sharp. It's so sharp.
4:54
I was I cut my thumb and my my pointer finger putting this one
4:58
in my app earlier today. But anyway, noon, noon on
5:01
Saturday. It's the most heavily back game
5:02
of the weekend so far. And boy is it sharp as I said a
5:05
second ago. But anyway, Iowa State 5 and O
5:08
ranked 14th, so undefeated 14th overall ranking.
5:11
They just took down Arizona 39 to 14 last week, easily covered
5:16
as a four point home favorite. Meanwhile, Sensi 3 and one just
5:19
upset Kansas 3734. They went outright as a 5 1/2
5:23
point Rd. dog. Now what do we see across the
5:27
market? Well, this game open, Iowa State
5:28
listed around a 2 1/2 point Rd. favorite, and the public says
5:32
that line is way too low because Cincinnati is 3 and one.
5:36
But they're unranked. Iowa State's the much better
5:38
team, right? They're five and on.
5:40
They're ranked 14th, only laying 2 1/2 on the road.
5:43
Easily, Iowa State will win by three or more, six or more.
5:46
This is an easy, easy play with the Cyclones.
5:48
However, even though we opened Iowa State -2 1/2 on the road,
5:53
and currently we are getting 75% of spread bets laying it with
5:57
Iowa State on the road. Iowa State is not up from -2 1/2
6:01
up to -3 - 4. No, we've completely flipped the
6:05
other way toward Cincinnati. So even though Iowa State's
6:08
getting 75% of spread bets, we have seen Cincinnati go from
6:13
getting 2 1/2 to now laying 1 1/2.
6:15
So we have a, you know what that is?
6:17
Woo woo. Dog to fave line since he
6:19
opened, getting 2 1/2. Now they flip to -1 1/2.
6:23
So dog to fave reverse line, move public all over Iowa State
6:26
line, flip to Cincy. Just on the contrarian side.
6:30
It's the most heavily backed game of the weekend right now.
6:33
We'll see if it stays that way or we'll talk about another game
6:35
that's a primetime game on Saturday, which will probably
6:37
overtake it at some point. But just from a contrarian spot,
6:40
heavily bet nationally televised, everybody's on Iowa
6:44
State automatically. I'm leaning Cincy, but as we try
6:47
to talk about on the pod and I read about this in in my book,
6:50
the NFL Sharpening Playbook, you know, contrarian is a
6:52
foundation. It's not the end all be all.
6:54
It's like the first box you want to check just to place yourself
6:57
against the public who's betting based on gut instinct and bias.
7:01
But if you really want to make the sharpest bet that you can,
7:03
you want to have contrarian and you want to have some element of
7:06
sharp action. So the Bearcats here have that
7:08
contrarian angle only getting 25% and they also have that
7:11
sharp action dog to fave line move, reverse line move as well.
7:15
DraftKings since he's only getting 25% bets, but 52% of
7:20
dollars. So some low bets, higher dollars
7:22
there, which is nice in favor of Cincy.
7:24
You also look at an opportunity to again play a money line like
7:28
if you want to lay -1 1/2, all the power to you, but I'm going
7:31
to go money line here. I got Cincinnati at only -120
7:34
felt like a kind of a a cheap price there.
7:37
And I really like the money line splits on Cincy as well. 16% of
7:41
bets, but nearly half the money, low bets, higher dollars.
7:44
And then the other thing about this dog to fave line move is
7:46
just the unranked versus ranked situation because Cincinnati
7:50
unranked yet now they're favored over ranked team.
7:53
Yes, you got to apply home field advantage, but still shouldn't
7:56
Iowa State, the undefeated ranked team, clearly be the
7:59
favorite here? Tells me we got a lot of smart
8:01
money going the Bearcats and oh, by the way, I got a system match
8:04
for you. Unranked home favorites versus
8:06
ranked opponents straight up are 54 and 2866 percent, 6% ROI
8:13
since 2017. So that got me pretty excited to
8:15
play Cincinnati. And oh, by the way, not a huge
8:18
edge, but I did notice Rhythm has Cincinnati -1.2.
8:22
So even though it's not an edge off the laying of 1 1/2, it is
8:26
Rhythm telling you that since he should be favored in this game,
8:28
even though the public says no, no, no, it should be Iowa State
8:31
easily favored so extremely heavily back game.
8:34
Everybody on a Cyclones dog to fave towards Cincinnati.
8:38
Really good bet split. I'm going to protect myself.
8:40
Go money line. It's my first bet coming up on
8:43
the weekend here. Cincinnati money line -120 next
8:47
one for you. Let's go to a prime time game,
8:49
7:30 PM Eastern Time on Saturday.
8:52
Miami and Florida State little battle in the state of Florida.
8:55
Miami comes in four and O ranked third in the country having a
8:58
great year. Remember they picked up Carson
9:00
Beck in the transfer portal. They just took down Florida 26
9:03
to 7, easily covered as an 8 1/2 point home favorite.
9:07
Meanwhile, Florida State 3 and 1 ranked 18th.
9:10
They just fell to Virginia 46 to 38 and double OT lost outright
9:14
as a 7 point Rd. favorite. I'm totally happy with that
9:17
because we had Virginia in the points there on Friday night.
9:19
But anyway, what are we seeing across the market?
9:21
Well, Miami, the undefeated ranked team opened as high as a
9:25
7 point Rd. favorite and the public is saying totally cool
9:29
with me. We'll lay the seven easily, you
9:31
know, double digit win or more for the the Hurricanes here.
9:34
However, even though 69% of spread bets are laying the
9:37
points in Miami, Miami is not up -7 to -8 - 9.
9:42
No, it's come the other way, crashing down in favor of
9:45
Florida State. Florida State is gone from +7
9:48
down to plus 4 1/2 and you're even seeing a couple shops
9:51
juiced a little bit on the Florida State side.
9:54
So let's take a step back. If everyone's playing Miami and
9:58
the public is saying all the way to 7 all day, why are the odds
10:01
makers now saying, oh, public betters drunk guys at the bar,
10:03
you want to lay A7 here, just lay a 4 1/2.
10:05
Now that means you're going to double down.
10:07
But we say that that's fishy. Something's going on.
10:09
Take a step back. Tells us smart money here is
10:12
going FSU in the points. Florida State is one of the top
10:15
bet against the public plays of the week.
10:17
They're only getting 31% of spread bets in a true prime time
10:21
game. This is 730 on ABC.
10:23
So just from a straight up contrarian angle, prime, these
10:26
are the games that we like to bet against the public with the
10:28
most public influence and and saturation of the market.
10:31
You look at circa Florida State, 44% of spread bets, 75% of
10:36
spread dollars. Another good discrepancy there
10:38
in favor of FSU and the home dog.
10:41
Florida State is also a buy low team that was just a favorite
10:44
who lost straight up and didn't cover versus a sell high
10:47
undefeated team who won and did cover.
10:49
So anyone who played Florida State last week is mad at them.
10:53
You know, we're happy because Virginia won and covered, but
10:55
they're mad at Florida State. They don't want to play them and
10:57
no one who played Miami last week is happy they won and
10:59
covered. So they're going to take that
11:00
over into this week. You also have the Seminoles with
11:03
a conference dog system match. So built in familiarity, rivalry
11:06
aspect levels the playing field benefits, benefits the team
11:09
getting points. A little cherry on top here, not
11:12
only is the Super sharp reverse line move going in favor of
11:16
Florida State, great splits system matches, but I popped
11:19
open rhythm. Rhythm has has FSU plus 3.9, so
11:24
that's an edge on the 4 1/2. So I put in FSU plus 4 1/2.
11:30
I was debating should I wait? Can I get a 5?
11:32
You know, will it creep back up? We shall see.
11:34
I'm hoping we get down to four as we progress throughout the
11:37
week. But I decided to jump on it now,
11:39
especially that rhythm edge. So I am on Seminoles plus 4 1/2.
11:44
Last early game for me. Vandy Alabama 3:30 PM Eastern
11:49
Time. Big late afternoon sweat as well
11:51
on Saturday setting the stage here.
11:53
Vanderbilt 5 and O ranked 16th, just took down Utah State 55 to
11:58
35. Didn't cover though as a 23 1/2
12:01
point home favorite. Meanwhile, Bama 3 and 1 ranked
12:04
10th. Just had a huge win for US1
12:06
outright against Georgia 24 to 21, one outright as a 2 1/2
12:10
point Rd. dog. So what have you seen across the
12:12
market here? Well, this came open Bama as
12:14
high as a 13 point favorite at home and the public and the pros
12:20
and Joe's are kind of in agreement saying the signs a
12:22
little bit too high because we've seen this line fall away
12:25
from Bama toward Vandy. So Vandy went from plus 13 now
12:29
down to plus 10 1/2 with the hook.
12:31
And if you look at the splits of DraftKings, I don't love this
12:34
band. Vandy is getting 66% of spread
12:37
bets. I would technically be public
12:38
again, I don't love that. But they are getting 81% of
12:41
spread dollars. So it's a pro and Joe split low
12:43
bets higher dollars and on itself 66% bets, 81% dollars.
12:48
That'd be notable just because you are getting more money than
12:51
bets. But it's the fact that even
12:53
though it's public in terms of the bet split, you know, ticket
12:57
percentage, you are combining it with a sharp line move.
12:59
So like if this opened Bama -13 and they're still -13 you know,
13:05
and the Publix on Vandy, that wouldn't get me excited.
13:07
But you're getting low bets, higher dollars, and the line
13:10
move toward Vandy. So you are technically checking
13:12
off those boxes. Vandy would have a good betting
13:15
system value as a conference dog.
13:17
Again, built in familiarity, levels the playing field,
13:20
benefits the team getting points.
13:22
I have another really crazy stat here, but the first one is when
13:25
2 SEC teams face off in a conference game.
13:28
So almost like NFL divisional dogs.
13:31
The dog is 7 and five ATS this year, 58%.
13:34
They're 48 and 28 ATS, 63 percent, 10% ROI since the start
13:39
of last year. So an SEC game typically,
13:41
they're close, they're competitive.
13:43
You take the points, you've done pretty well.
13:45
But listen to this, if you layer on one little factor, SEC
13:48
conference dog getting 10 points or more, you draw a line at 10
13:51
or more. Listen to this.
13:53
They improved to 25 and six against the spread, 81 percent,
13:58
54% ROI. So that would match with Vandy.
14:02
Vandy. Lastly, it would be a dog who
14:04
can score. System match increases the
14:06
chances you can back to recover, keep pace.
14:08
Did you know The Commodores are averaging 50 points per game
14:11
this year? That is #1 best scoring offense
14:15
first overall in college football.
14:17
So again, I don't love the fact that 66% of bets are on Vandy.
14:21
Let's see if that evens out throughout the the week.
14:23
Let's get it down hopefully into maybe the 50s or lower.
14:27
But we got a line move toward Vandy.
14:29
We have a low bets higher dollar split dog who can score system
14:32
match and an epic SEC conference dog getting 10 or more covering
14:36
81% of the time since the start of last year.
14:38
So add it all up here guys. I was wondering, will it creep
14:41
up back to 11? But I didn't want to miss out on
14:43
the hook. Actually saw some books that
14:44
touched down as low as 9 1/2 or 10 earlier or the last day or
14:49
so. So I said, you know what, let's
14:51
grab this hook and make sure we get it.
14:53
I did play officially Vandy plus 10 1/2, so 3 early bets.
14:58
Can we get 2 of them? Cincy money line, FSU plus 4 1/2
15:02
and Vandy plus 10 1/2. Now over to some Major League
15:07
Baseball. Here we go.
15:09
Can you believe it? I'm going to tell you real quick
15:11
why I'm not going to bet the Red Sox game even though I'm a Red
15:13
Sox fan. One, I think there is value.
15:17
Crochet on six days rest divisional dog.
15:19
Red Sox have had the Yankees number better bullpen.
15:21
There are cases to be made why you take Boston, but I didn't
15:24
like the fact that as I was getting ready for the pod, the
15:27
Yankees crept up a little bit more.
15:28
They're up to like, I think they open -130 they're up to like
15:31
-140 at this point. And if you look at the splits
15:33
right now on the Yankees at Circo, they're only getting 40%
15:36
bets but 70% dollars. So I don't want to force
15:40
something just because I'm a Red Sox fan.
15:42
So I'm going to watch the game like a like 9 year old Josh
15:45
Applebaum rooting for Nomar and and Pedro and move on and my
15:49
favorite players. So that's just going to be a fan
15:52
play for me. No play.
15:53
I don't like the line move toward New York.
15:55
What I am going to play is the Reds in the Dodgers game.
15:58
Now, let's set the stage for this one.
16:00
Going into it, this is your biggest series price discrepancy
16:04
because the Dodgers, who are coming in with a record of 93
16:07
and 69, weirdly, that's kind of like a down year for them.
16:10
Usually they're around 100 wins. But again, you can look at it
16:12
the other way and say, damn, are they consistent, always winning
16:15
over 90 games And they spend the money too, which I respect.
16:18
But the Reds 83 and 79 had to eke into the postseason needed
16:21
the Mets to collapse. But going into what we have at
16:24
DraftKings dodgers -260 to win the series since the plus 2:15.
16:30
So pitching match up for tonight game one of the wild card round.
16:34
We have Hunter Green, the righty going for the Reds.
16:37
He is 7 and four 2.76 ERA this year.
16:41
He'll be opposed by Blake Snell, who was really good.
16:43
He was injured for a lot of the year, but five and four, 2.35
16:47
ERA. So so far this season in the
16:50
regular season for the Dodgers. Now my play here, I know it's a
16:54
bigger number. I'm taking the Dodgers.
16:56
I got Dodgers at -200 again, this is a betrus versus bet to
17:01
win. If you're playing the Dodgers
17:02
with me, you're risking 1 unit trying to get a half unit back.
17:05
You're not risking 2 units to win one unit because if the
17:07
Dodgers lose, you don't want to lose 2 units.
17:09
You want to any play you ever lose, it's one unit.
17:11
That'll just save you long term from digging A deeper hole.
17:15
But my thought process here is 1.
17:17
This is one of the games today or it is the game today with the
17:20
biggest steam because we opened with the Dodgers around a -, 170
17:25
- 175 home favorite and now they're up to -200 some shops
17:30
even -2 O 5 - 210. It's right off the bat tells me
17:34
a lot of big money has come in on the Dodgers 'cause that big,
17:37
you know, 3035 even 40% forty cent steam in their favor.
17:42
The other angle is really good bet split.
17:44
So again, we're trying to build a case here.
17:45
Steam to the Dodgers. That's the first one.
17:47
Second one you'll get circa only 53% of spread of money line bets
17:52
I should say are on the Dodgers, but it accounts for 93% of the
17:56
money line dollars. So half the tickets over 90% of
17:59
dollars with a big steam move. Another thing angle there to
18:03
like about the Dodgers non division favorite lack of
18:06
familiarity benefits the better team.
18:08
They should you know, if your amount of expected run scored
18:10
favorite low total total. This one is 7.
18:13
So non division favorite favorite low total.
18:16
We're starting to check off a few more boxes here.
18:19
Then we look at some other factors like if we get back to
18:21
these pictures, big discrepancy Hunter green home Rd. at home.
18:25
Even though you know, Great American ballpark is a tiny
18:27
little little bandbox. 1.58 ERA has been really good at home on
18:31
the road. 4.81 ERA. You look at Blake Snell at home
18:35
this year five and one 1.17 ERA. So he's really done well at
18:40
home. So some home Rd. advantages.
18:43
You also look in general Home Rd.
18:44
Dodgers 52 and 29 at home, Cincy 38 and 4043 on the road.
18:50
Dodgers hopefully peaking at the right time the end of the
18:52
regular season. 9 and two in their last eleven games.
18:56
I'm hoping the offense shows up for the Dodgers.
18:59
They're hitting 253 on the year, 244 homers, 825 runs versus the
19:05
Reds hitting two 45167 homers, 716 runs scored.
19:10
You digging a little bit more into these batting averages?
19:13
LA Dodgers are hitting 260 at home this year.
19:15
That ranks 7th in baseball. They're hitting 252 against
19:19
righties, that ranks 10th. So they're top ten against both
19:23
righties and at home. Since he on the road is hitting
19:27
238, that ranks 21st and they are hitting 229 against lefties.
19:31
That ranks 24th. So Dodgers are top 10 home and
19:35
verse righties since he is bottom 10 road and versus
19:38
lefties. So that's my angle here guys.
19:41
We got a huge steam move toward the Dodgers.
19:43
Great bet split out at Circa. Non division favorite favorite
19:47
low total, better offense, better situational offense.
19:51
Hopefully you got the better pitcher on the bump and you've
19:53
done well at home. And since he is below 500 on the
19:56
road, so again, it's a bigger price.
19:59
So you're you're risking 1 unit trying to get a half unit back.
20:02
But I did play the Dodgers tonight -200 at Bet MGM.
20:08
So that about does it for episode 362 of the All Systems
20:11
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by rhythm.
20:14
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
20:16
start first as always, by saying thank you.
20:19
Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
20:21
busy lives. And we got a lot going on.
20:23
But you find 20 to 30 minutes to sweat some sharp data-driven
20:26
breakdowns with me and that means the world to me.
20:29
So keep listening, keep tuning in.
20:31
I really appreciate you guys. Could you please, if I ask, can
20:34
I ask a favor? Would you give this podcast a
20:36
five star review on Spotify or iTunes that would help us to
20:40
grow the pod? Recommend the pod to a friend,
20:42
hit the follow button, leave a comment under the review
20:45
section. That would also be fantastic.
20:48
Next, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, data-driven,
20:51
sharp contrarian betting, focusing on what the market, the
20:53
numbers are telling us, not what our biases are telling us.
20:56
If this style of betting has appealed to you, it's provided
20:59
you a bit of a blueprint to attack the market.
21:01
Hopefully you're beating closing lines, you're paying attention
21:03
to splits and line moves and system matches and taking a
21:06
contrarian approach. Well, if that's the case and you
21:08
want to let me know you appreciate the pod or you want
21:11
to learn more about data-driven betting.
21:12
Or if you have a friend or colleague or family member or
21:15
somebody who wants to get into betting, doesn't know how and
21:18
maybe they bet already and they lose a lot and they just don't
21:20
have a strategy whatsoever. Again, that it's difficult, it's
21:23
hard. You know what you should do?
21:25
You should go to Amazon.com and type in the NFL Sharp betting
21:29
playbook and then type in the everything guide to sports
21:32
betting. My two books that I've written,
21:33
very proud of both of them. But if you'd like to pick up one
21:36
or both and bring them in the sports book, I'll sign them for
21:39
you. I'll buy you a beer and we'll
21:40
sort the Dodgers together or ginger ale, whatever you want.
21:43
We got some nachos, but let's go Dodgers.
21:46
But if you'd like to also again, leave a five star review,
21:49
especially for the NFL Sharp Betting playbook because it's
21:51
newish, that would mean a lot to me.
21:53
So thank you, especially to those who've already bought.
21:55
It means a lot. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
21:58
and Juice Real yet? My two favorite sports betting
22:00
apps. If you haven't done it, now is
22:02
the time rhythm Remember we have our Thursday 6:00 live streams
22:06
every Thursday. So hope to see you guys there
22:08
live on Twitter. You can follow me at Josh under
22:10
score insights. So a couple days from now we'll
22:12
have our next one. But rhythm great for their AI
22:14
backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
22:17
We also have the leaderboard contest.
22:19
You can win up to 1000 bucks. So just enter those right when
22:21
you download rhythm, it'll be right on the homepage.
22:24
There's also refer refer a friend discount and you can also
22:28
join the discord and talk to some other sharp rhythm people
22:32
and then also go download juice reel.
22:34
Juice reel has got so many great features.
22:36
One that I like is you can sign up to get the all systems go
22:39
official best bet picks exclusively and only on Juice
22:42
reel. Again, this pod is free.
22:44
It cost you nothing, so I'm going to pass the hat.
22:46
If you want to tip your podcast host, you can do it in the form
22:49
of signing up to get those ASG best bet picks, which you'll get
22:52
as soon as I make. They're sent right to juice Reel
22:56
for my sports book because I'm all synced up.
22:58
You can tail fade, do whatever you like, but it costs $4.99 a
23:01
week, 5 bucks. You get all the plays and you'll
23:04
always find them there first. Also you're going to get the AI
23:08
driven Robo Jackson. Best bet picks, sharp mush
23:11
indicators, arbitrage plays. Shop for the best sign features
23:14
all available within Juice reel. So download rhythm, download
23:17
Juice reel, give me a five star review in the App Store.
23:21
Next you have a live odds page. If you don't have one, you need
23:24
one. You got to be able to track the
23:25
market. You got to know what the game
23:27
opened at what is it now? How is it moved?
23:29
Pull up the line history, identify steam live scoring live
23:32
in game wagering odds shopping for the best price without a
23:35
live odds page, you are betting sports blind again, you're up up
23:39
up the Creek without a paddle. That is so critical to be able
23:42
to track the market with the live odds page.
23:45
So there's a lot of them out there.
23:46
Best one is odds logic. You guys should give it a shot.
23:48
Just go to odds logic dot com slash Josh 123 make sure you do
23:54
the slash Josh 123 at the end. That'll give you 7 day free
23:57
trial 50% off your first month of service.
24:00
Next, do you have a betting exchange?
24:03
If you don't, that's OK. It's new.
24:04
You might have never heard of it, but it's just like a sports
24:07
book. But it's different because
24:09
instead of betting against the house, you're betting against
24:11
other betters. You're getting better prices.
24:14
The best one around is no vague because you're literally laying
24:17
minus one O 5 - 1 O 7 -, 110 or less.
24:20
If you win, you won't get booted and it works just like a sports
24:23
book. You put in money, you're off and
24:25
running. So if you'd like to give Novig a
24:27
shot getting better prices, you should download Novig and then
24:31
use the promo code Josh 123. That'll be 100% deposit match up
24:36
to 25 bucks. So you put in 25 bucks to fund
24:39
your account. You put in Josh 123 in the promo
24:41
code, you get another 25. So you have 50 bucks off and
24:44
running. You put in more, but they'll
24:45
they'll give you that 25 but give it a shot again, Novig.
24:49
That's kind of a cool new way to bet it's legal as long as you're
24:52
in an illegal no big state, but that about does it guys.
24:55
For today's episode 363 of the ASG pod, as always, two final
24:59
thoughts. One, whether I see you at the
25:01
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
25:04
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
25:06
Connecticut, the Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park,
25:08
Casino, MGM Springfield, the Nash and my neck of the woods in
25:12
New England. Out in the desert where the true
25:13
grinders get down. Or Billy Walter sends his number
25:16
runners. Or the lowest juice possible is
25:17
found at the South Point. Or sweat and sharp and train
25:19
plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
25:22
When you cash a big ticket at Circa, you're going to walk up
25:24
to me and we're just we're just going to flash our Miami
25:27
Dolphins tickets again. What what sound does a dolphin
25:30
make? It's like eek, eek.
25:32
It's kind of like a sonar type. I'm trying to think about Ace
25:36
Ventura pet detective. We're going to make some
25:38
dolphins swimming, you know, with our arms.
25:41
I don't know what we're going to do, but either way, we're going
25:43
to celebrate our Dolphins ticket.
25:45
First one's on me, next one's on you.
25:46
We'll post about the book and put it on the Dodgers here
25:49
tonight. So as always, guys coming off A1
25:52
and OO and one. Good night, bad night, awesome
25:55
night, terrible night. Grinding somewhere in the middle
25:58
through ups and downs, hots and colds, colds.
26:00
We just got to stick with it. Again, we're never as hot as we
26:03
think or good as we think when we're hot.
26:04
We're never as bad as we think when we're cold.
26:06
Always remember, sports betting is difficult.
26:08
If things aren't going your way, don't get down on yourself.
26:11
Just got to continue to grind. If things are going great, don't
26:13
get cocky and think it'll always last that way because there's a
26:16
lot of ups and downs and we just got to ride the wave.
26:19
And we got to do it by staying consistent, staying even keeled,
26:22
staying disciplined with our bankroll and finding games that
26:24
fit our model. And you guys know it by now.
26:26
Games that fit our model sound a little bit like this.
26:29
Against the public, with the house, with the pros, Flat bet,
26:32
avoid parlays and get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
26:35
to be successful betters. So have a great Tuesday night,
26:38
everybody. Last day in the month of
26:40
September. I'll see you in October and
26:43
we'll see if the Red Sox can win for me as a fan and hopefully
26:46
the Dodgers can win for us as betters tonight.
26:48
But either way, we'll be right back at it tomorrow for a big
26:51
Wednesday edition. That'll be episode 364 of the
26:54
All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
26:58
Good luck everybody and go LA.