Latest / Pod Save America / Iowa Episode 5: Voting is not enough

Transcript

Iowa Episode 5: Voting is not enough · Pod Save America

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Posse of America in Iowa is brought to you by ZipRecruiter.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Hawaii, Utah, Nebraska, D.C.,
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: and West Virginia are the states, one of those is
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: not a state, I love it, experiencing the highest wage growth.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: But while higher wages... You might call that Commonwealth. Commonwealth.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: But while higher wages attract more and better candidates, competition
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: for talent remains intense. So if you need to find
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: the best candidate for your growing business, ZipRecruiter is your smart,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: efficient hiring solution. From healthcare to manufacturing to professional and
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: business services, ZipRecruiter makes hiring great people faster and easier.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: And right now, you can try ZipRecruiter for free at ZipRecruiter.com
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: slash crooked. When you go to ZipRecruiter.com slash crooked, with
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: one click, you send your job to ZipRecruiter's network of
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: over 100 of the leading job boards. What happens next, John?
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: What happens next, Tommy? ZipRecruiter finds the best matches for
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: your job and invites them to apply.
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: Wow.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Politely. Hey, would you mind applying?
• 0:58
  Speaker 3: Hey.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: It's so effective that four to five employers who post
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: on ZipRecruiter get a quality candidate within the first day.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: So try it right now for free at ZipRecruiter.com slash crooked.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: If you go to ZipRecruiter.com slash crooked today, you can
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: try ZipRecruiter for free and we will get credit for
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: sending you. So once again, ZipRecruiter.com slash crooked. This to
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: me feels like a real Iowa caucus event. Small town.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Someone's home. It's snowing. It's beautiful. I'm excited. Should we
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: go in?
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: Yep. Hi.
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: How are you?
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: Amy Klobuchar's campaign has been hosting hot dish parties all
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: across Iowa. These are lunchtime gatherings to hear about the candidate,
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: and they're usually at supporters' houses. Hot Dish, if you
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: don't know, is Midwestern for casserole. The host made one
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: with tater tots, ground beef, and cheese. Two cheeses, actually.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: It's Amy Klobuchar's personal recipe.
• 2:06
  Speaker 5: Now, it's also half pepper jack and half cheddar jack.
• 2:11
  Speaker 5: That is because not everybody eats jalapenos. So, Amy's real
• 2:17
  Speaker 5: recipe is on the jalapeno side, okay?
• 2:21
  Speaker 4: The rest is.
• 2:23
  Speaker 5: A more standard Minnesota hot dish.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Iowa, where people think pepper jack cheese is too spicy.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Janie Pryke was hosting the event with her husband, Jim,
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: but she wasn't ready to tell us who she'd be supporting.
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: In your own mind, you have a person. Oh, yes.
• 2:39
  Speaker 5: Actually, in my own mind, I have my first one.
• 2:44
  Speaker 5: If that winds up not being viable, I've got my
• 2:46
  Speaker 5: second one. And if that winds up not being viable,
• 2:48
  Speaker 5: I have.
• 2:48
  Speaker 6: A third one.
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 2:51
  Speaker 5: Oh, I'm ready for caucus.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: We thought we were ready, too. A few months ago,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: this final episode seemed pretty straightforward. You fly to Iowa,
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: you hit as many candidate events as possible, capture that
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: frenetic pace of the final weeks, and then this happened.
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: I'd love to be out there shaking hands and hugging
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: people and answering folks' questions.
• 3:12
  Speaker 7: I have a constitutional responsibility to be here in Washington.
• 3:16
  Speaker 8: I would rather be in Iowa today. There's a caucus
• 3:19
  Speaker 8: there in Two and a half weeks, but I swore
• 3:23
  Speaker 8: a constitutional oath.
• 3:26
  Speaker 9: We were prepared for this. That's why my husband and
• 3:28
  Speaker 9: daughter are there right now. But I have a constitutional duty.
• 3:32
  Speaker 9: The people in these early states are going to understand
• 3:35
  Speaker 9: that I have to do my job.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, they were all stuck
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: in D.C. for the impeachment hearings. Surprisingly, Mayor Pete and
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: Vice President Biden weren't in Iowa either. I thought they
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: would park in the state and take full advantage of
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: having Iowa to themselves. But the only one really working
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: it was Andrew Yang. As you listen to this, Andrew
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Yang is still in the midst of a 17-day Iowa
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: bus tour. It felt a little weird to me to
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: have so few candidates in town, but I'll be honest
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: that this race has felt weird from the very beginning.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: I keep waiting for things to clarify and for the
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: field to shrink, but it just never seems to. The
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: one thing I can say for sure is that no one,
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: not the pundits, not campaign staffers, not reporters, knows how
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: this is going to end. I'm Tommy Vitor, and this
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: is the final episode of a special Pod Save America
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: series about the Iowa caucuses. The other thing I'll say
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: is that we threw this episode together really fast, just
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: to give you guys a sense of what it's like
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: in Iowa right now. I got back like 48 hours ago.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: I ate a lot of tater tots. I drove in
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: a lot of snow and had a few final conversations
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: with some of the hardest working field organizers in the game.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: It's going to be the absolute freshest voices from Iowa
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: that we could bring you.
• 5:07
  Speaker 8: Okay.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: If you've been listening to this series, you know, Olivia Ellis,
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: she's a field organizer for the Warren campaign. Last Thursday,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: we went back to visit her at Warren's headquarters in Ames, Iowa.
• 5:18
  Speaker 10: So tonight, as soon as.
• 5:19
  Speaker 11: You get home, reach out to your team.
• 5:21
  Speaker 7: Make sure that you tell them that you're the precinct captain.
• 5:23
  Speaker 10: If you haven't already told them.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: When we arrived, Olivia was training about a dozen precinct captains,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: most of them double or triple her age. These are
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: the people who will be running the Warren Corner in
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: the almost 1,700 rooms across the state on caucus night.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: While we were waiting for Olivia to be finished, we
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: met a volunteer named Jamie.
• 5:42
  Speaker 12: So when I was eight years old, my family lost
• 5:45
  Speaker 12: their house in the financial crisis and we were homeless
• 5:48
  Speaker 12: until I was 14. And her creating the CFPB showed
• 5:51
  Speaker 12: me that there are people in Washington who care about
• 5:53
  Speaker 12: people like me. I want to grow up and I
• 5:55
  Speaker 12: want to be Elizabeth Warren for somebody else.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: I feel like you're on your way. For all the
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: talk in the media about electability and poll numbers, it
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: was an important reminder of how personal this choice is
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: for so many people. When Olivia wrapped up her training,
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: we sat down with her in a small windowless room
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: that just reeked of printer toner.
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: Toner number five on the day.
• 6:16
  Speaker 13: That's legit.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: They've been cranking out hundreds of walk packets for door knocking. Yeah,
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: so how you doing? We're like 11 days out.
• 6:28
  Speaker 13: I am great.
• 6:30
  Speaker 7: I have, no, I really do have a lot of
• 6:32
  Speaker 7: hope and I was able to find my precinct captain's
• 6:36
  Speaker 7: before Christmas. And so I've just been building my team
• 6:40
  Speaker 7: and they've been training their own teams. And so I
• 6:42
  Speaker 7: have all the confidence in the world in them. So
• 6:44
  Speaker 7: that's helpful. If I didn't have my precinct captains, I
• 6:46
  Speaker 7: might be freaking out right now, but I do feel
• 6:49
  Speaker 7: slightly calm.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: So, so we just did a precinct captain training. Why
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: are the people we just met so important? And like,
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: what did these teams do for you?
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 6:58
  Speaker 7: So on caucus night, there are going to be roughly
• 7:01
  Speaker 7: 1700 precincts that are 100% volunteer led. And so, you know,
• 7:07
  Speaker 7: the organizers, the staff, we're not going to be in
• 7:11
  Speaker 7: those rooms. And so whatever happens is up to our captains.
• 7:15
  Speaker 7: And so we want to make sure that they're trained
• 7:17
  Speaker 7: to get as many people in the corner as possible.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: We've talked about this before, but I want to remind
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: you of how the caucuses work. You show up at
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: your precinct at the designated time, and you literally stand
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: in the corner where your candidate supporters are gathering, and
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: you get counted. If your candidate has support from more
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: than 15% of the people in that room, he or
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: she is considered viable and you're locked in as a
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: supporter of that person. If your candidate does not have
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: the support of 15% of the people in that precinct,
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: your candidate is not viable and you have to realign.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: That means you either go home or you pick another
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: corner to stand in and back your second choice candidate
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: who did meet that viability threshold. It's so weird to
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: think that there's scenarios where there could be like four
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: or five people viable.
• 8:02
  Speaker 7: In a precinct.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: Like, are you, do you even try to game that out?
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: Is it even worth thinking about or is just like,
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: get our people there?
• 8:08
  Speaker 7: I mean, here's the thing we we've been here for
• 8:11
  Speaker 7: almost a year. And so we've been building relationships with
• 8:15
  Speaker 7: these people on the ground for a year now. And
• 8:17
  Speaker 7: so even if they commit to other candidates, they know
• 8:21
  Speaker 7: who we are. And our precinct captains have built relationships
• 8:25
  Speaker 7: with other precinct captains from other teams. And we know
• 8:28
  Speaker 7: that if other candidates are not viable, hopefully they'll end
• 8:32
  Speaker 7: up in our corner at the end of the night.
• 8:34
  Speaker 7: And so that's really what we want to be planning
• 8:36
  Speaker 7: for is being the nicest team in the field so
• 8:39
  Speaker 7: that people feel not only comfortable, but excited coming into
• 8:43
  Speaker 7: our corner if their first choice isn't able to make it.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Do you have a closing argument pitch that you've been
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: honing for 10 months? How long have you been here?
• 8:52
  Speaker 7: Oh my gosh.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 8:53
  Speaker 7: 10 months. And now we have 11 days. That is crazy.
• 8:58
  Speaker 7: Oh my God. My closing argument. I mean, here's the,
• 9:01
  Speaker 7: I hope that we have built these badass teams so
• 9:04
  Speaker 7: that an Iowan walks into that room on caucus night
• 9:08
  Speaker 7: and sees our corner and electability just flies out the window.
• 9:12
  Speaker 7: I hope that's what happens. They walk into that room
• 9:16
  Speaker 7: and say, oh, I see my neighbors standing proudly in
• 9:18
  Speaker 7: that corner. I'm going to go into that corner.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: I feel like if they walk in the room and
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: they see the most people in your corner, that kind
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: of is an electability argument in and of itself.
• 9:26
  Speaker 4: Exactly.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: You've been living every day of your life for February
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: 3rd for 10 months.
• 9:30
  Speaker 8: Uh-huh.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: I know that, like, what happens that day is kind
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: of the only thing that matters in some ways. But, like,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: have you been able to pause with this group of people,
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: like your best friends, and reflect on what you guys
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: have done and how meaningful it is?
• 9:44
  Speaker 7: I think we, yeah. I mean, we do sometimes this
• 9:47
  Speaker 7: office is buzzing and we just kind of look around
• 9:51
  Speaker 7: and see what we built. Like, when you walked in,
• 9:53
  Speaker 7: there was a team of precinct captains sitting around a
• 9:56
  Speaker 7: table talking about their game plan for their final meetings
• 9:59
  Speaker 7: with their team. And I think in those moments, you
• 10:02
  Speaker 7: can't help but look around and see what you built.
• 10:05
  Speaker 7: And I think it was really special.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: You were very authoritative at that meeting. Was I? Yeah.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: You got a bunch of older people, like some seniors,
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: some professors, a professor of professors at the ag school.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: And they were just like, taking notes, listening to you.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: You're not fucking around.
• 10:23
  Speaker 7: I mean, absolutely not.
• 10:25
  Speaker 10: Nope.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: Where are you going to be on Cox Night?
• 10:28
  Speaker 7: I have absolutely no idea. I don't have answers.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: Can you lock that one down, maybe?
• 10:34
  Speaker 7: Okay, I think we will probably be in this office
• 10:39
  Speaker 7: putting out fires. Like, I know in 2016, our deputy
• 10:45
  Speaker 7: organizing director, Chelsea, tells a story of how In one
• 10:48
  Speaker 7: of her precincts, the caucus chair showed up like visibly drunk.
• 10:53
  Speaker 7: So she had to go and like run a caucus.
• 10:56
  Speaker 7: So I think we're just going to be sitting here
• 10:58
  Speaker 7: waiting for one of those fires to happen inevitably.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Speaking of visibly drunk, that is how I spent most
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: of my time after losing on campaigns. But that was
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: not the case with Mitch. You guys remember Mitch Smith
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: from the Booker campaign. The last time we talked, he
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: was preparing for Senator Booker to speak at the Liberty
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: and Justice dinner. But on January 13th, Senator Booker suspended
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: his campaign, citing challenges raising money and qualifying for the
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: debates and the fact that he was going to have
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: to be in D.C. for impeachment. But far from wallowing
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: in self-pity, Mitch and Booker's Iowa team had spent their
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: time volunteering at a food bank, thanking supporters, and hitting
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: doors for other candidates. We caught up with Mitch at
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: a coffee shop in Des Moines. So last time we talked,
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: it was before Senator Booker decided to drop out of
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: the race. Can I first just ask you, how did
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: you learn the news? Yeah.
• 11:51
  Speaker 14: So I woke up, I think, to a calendar invite
• 11:55
  Speaker 14: for an all-staff call, which was not at the usual
• 11:58
  Speaker 14: time we would have an all-staff call. So I pretty
• 12:02
  Speaker 14: highly suspected what was going to happen. And so everyone
• 12:05
  Speaker 14: across the country got on a Google Hangout together. And
• 12:08
  Speaker 14: Corey came in and told everyone that he was suspending
• 12:12
  Speaker 14: the campaign and And of course, you know, thanked everyone
• 12:14
  Speaker 14: for all their hard work. And then our campaign manager, Adisu,
• 12:18
  Speaker 14: you know, did the same. And it was a tough day. Definitely,
• 12:22
  Speaker 14: definitely a lot of sadness, you know, but also also
• 12:25
  Speaker 14: a time for like our staff all here and I
• 12:27
  Speaker 14: all got together right after and, you know, spent a
• 12:31
  Speaker 14: lot of time together kind of reflecting and being sad together,
• 12:33
  Speaker 14: but also celebrating what we.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: What we had done, too. Do you drive from the
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: conference call to the bar or like how does that go?
• 12:40
  Speaker 14: To brunch, where I was greeted with a shot of tequila.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: What do you tell the folks? I mean, you guys
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: have to go through this conference call, which I'm sure
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: is just brutal and heartbreaking. Do you try to reach
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: out to volunteers and precinct captains before the news becomes public?
• 12:54
  Speaker 14: So the news became public very shortly after the conference call,
• 12:58
  Speaker 14: but I didn't have to reach out to them because
• 13:00
  Speaker 14: I just got a flood of texts and calls and
• 13:03
  Speaker 14: emails and Facebook messages from all these people who I
• 13:07
  Speaker 14: had gotten to know so, so, so well And that
• 13:11
  Speaker 14: was probably the hardest part of that day, was trying
• 13:15
  Speaker 14: to figure out how to respond to each one of
• 13:18
  Speaker 14: them in the way that they deserved. I mean, we
• 13:22
  Speaker 14: built the whole campaign on this idea of relational organizing,
• 13:25
  Speaker 14: and that means that when the relationships get close to ending,
• 13:28
  Speaker 14: it's really, really hard. I've been over to multiple of my...
• 13:34
  Speaker 14: you know, houses for dinner to, to kind of start
• 13:37
  Speaker 14: to say goodbye. And, you know, I'm not, haven't left yet,
• 13:39
  Speaker 14: but it's, it's, uh, it's a really, really hard process. Um,
• 13:43
  Speaker 14: and you know, I mean, if, if any of them
• 13:45
  Speaker 14: are listening, I would, I would love for them to
• 13:47
  Speaker 14: know how much I appreciated them. And it's really hard
• 13:50
  Speaker 14: to be an organizer on a campaign. The hours are
• 13:53
  Speaker 14: really long and getting told, you know, no go away
• 13:56
  Speaker 14: or being hung up on so many times is really hard. Uh,
• 13:59
  Speaker 14: and having these people come in, And donate their time
• 14:02
  Speaker 14: and energy is the most inspirational thing ever. So just so,
• 14:06
  Speaker 14: so thankful for everything they did.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: When you guys were sitting around talking about the campaign,
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: what are the things you're most proud of?
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: A lot.
• 14:14
  Speaker 14: And I have felt every single day since we ended.
• 14:17
  Speaker 14: We set out months and months and months ago to
• 14:21
  Speaker 14: build a really, really strong organization in Iowa. And as
• 14:24
  Speaker 14: the campaign went along, we did exactly that. You recorded
• 14:28
  Speaker 14: the Cabernet for Corey event back in August, I think.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: It was a great event.
• 14:33
  Speaker 14: No one was committed. I think maybe we had one
• 14:34
  Speaker 14: person who was committed to Corey at that event. And
• 14:37
  Speaker 14: out of that, I got, I think, four of the
• 14:39
  Speaker 14: five eventually committed. I got a precinct captain. I got
• 14:42
  Speaker 14: someone who knocked doors every weekend. We set out to
• 14:45
  Speaker 14: build this organization that, regardless of where the polls were,
• 14:48
  Speaker 14: was going to work really, really hard to make sure
• 14:50
  Speaker 14: that Corey was the next president. Um, and obviously, you know, that's,
• 14:54
  Speaker 14: that's not going to happen, but we did what we
• 14:56
  Speaker 14: set out to do. We built that organization. And I
• 14:58
  Speaker 14: think that like that organization too, is going to last
• 15:02
  Speaker 14: after Corey, you know, we were, we were training volunteers
• 15:04
  Speaker 14: who are going to knock on doors to make sure
• 15:07
  Speaker 14: that we win the Senate seat here in Iowa and
• 15:09
  Speaker 14: make sure that we win the house races here in
• 15:11
  Speaker 14: Iowa and make sure that we take back the state house. We,
• 15:14
  Speaker 14: you know, obviously are disappointed, but here in Iowa and our,
• 15:17
  Speaker 14: you know, organizing team across the country really feels very
• 15:21
  Speaker 14: proud of, of what we did.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Do you want to jump on another campaign? What are
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: you thinking about? What's next?
• 15:27
  Speaker 14: Yeah, I mean, the fight is not over. I don't
• 15:30
  Speaker 14: know yet what I'm doing. I got in this not
• 15:34
  Speaker 14: only because I thought that Senator Booker was the best choice,
• 15:38
  Speaker 14: but also because we're in a moment where nothing matters
• 15:42
  Speaker 14: if we don't beat Trump and don't take back the
• 15:45
  Speaker 14: Senate and don't keep the House. So I'm looking at
• 15:47
  Speaker 14: a lot of different potential next steps right now. I
• 15:50
  Speaker 14: think I will almost definitely be working on a campaign, though.
• 15:53
  Speaker 14: I'm not sure whether that means another presidential campaign or
• 15:56
  Speaker 14: a House race or a Senate race. But yeah, if
• 15:58
  Speaker 14: you're not doing it, if you're not doing something, then
• 16:02
  Speaker 14: you need.
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: To start doing something. So almost everyone who works on
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: a campaign will lose, by definition. Do you have any
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: message or advice to all the other campaigns that will
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: soon be suspended?
• 16:16
  Speaker 14: I think my message for... people who've worked incredibly hard and,
• 16:20
  Speaker 14: you know, will not end up winning is, like, remember
• 16:25
  Speaker 14: why you're doing this. And, you know, yeah, it doesn't
• 16:29
  Speaker 14: always work out, but there's no better job to have
• 16:31
  Speaker 14: right now. There's no more important job. So just know
• 16:33
  Speaker 14: that it was worth it. And then keep working on
• 16:35
  Speaker 14: another campaign until November.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: Adisu Demesi was Cory Booker's campaign manager. And like Mitch,
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: he has no regrets, but he does have one critique.
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: Can I use my platform here to talk about polling
• 16:49
  Speaker 4: for a second?
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: Go off.
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: By the way, if Adisu's audio sounds a little funky,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: it's because we FaceTimed him as he was in the
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: bathroom when Cory Booker was next door making thank you
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: calls to supporters. Like I said, this campaign is just
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: top to bottom full of good people.
• 17:06
  Speaker 4: Let me just give my one minute diatribe about polling,
• 17:08
  Speaker 4: which I actually think I don't hate pollsters. I think
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: they do very important work. But polling is the bane
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: of my existence and public polling. And here's why. First
• 17:19
  Speaker 4: of all, it just drives narrative. And polling, as we
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: all know, is not predictive. It's just a thermometer. It's
• 17:24
  Speaker 4: not a predictive tool. But because the DNC used it
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: as a threshold issue for getting in the debates, it
• 17:31
  Speaker 4: became so important to voters, actually, who became sort of pundits.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: One thing to know about polling and the debates is
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: that not every poll counts for debate qualification. So Booker
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: did really well in some polls that for various arcane
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: reasons didn't count to get him into the debates. That's
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: still a big issue for some of the candidates on
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: the bubble like Andrew Yang. He didn't qualify for the
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: last debate in Iowa.
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: There is a awful feedback loop with public polling that
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: I think we just got to get our arms around
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: and figure out because otherwise you're never going to allow
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: a real grassroots campaign to emerge. I mean, Andrew Yang, like,
• 18:08
  Speaker 4: come on. We want all those Yang folks like I
• 18:11
  Speaker 4: desperately want them to become Democrats. And we are basically
• 18:14
  Speaker 4: telling them right now, he can't poll high enough so
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: you don't count. Like, that's crazy to me. So anyway,
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: I'll get off my soapbox.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: The good news for the Yang gang is he'll actually
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: be back on the debate stage in February after he
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: hit 5% in a qualifying poll this weekend. While the
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: campaigns try to do everything possible to win the Iowa caucuses,
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: the Iowa Democratic Party is working overtime just to make
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: sure that they happen. Troy Price is the chair of
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: the Iowa Democratic Party. His team is responsible for making
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: sure that every one of the nearly 1,700 precinct caucuses
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: has a big enough location, they have the right forms,
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: the results get reported back in a timely manner, and
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: just generally making sure that things run smoothly. Given the
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: stakes involved, I thought Troy's office in Des Moines was
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: going to be a madhouse. But it was not.
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: I feel good. I feel good.
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: You know, we're what?
• 19:05
  Speaker 15: Today we're 11 days out from caucus day, and.
• 19:10
  Speaker 15: It's hard to believe that we're already here because, I mean,
• 19:12
  Speaker 15: we've been preparing for this, I mean, in earnest since
• 19:14
  Speaker 15: the day after the election last year or in 2018.
• 19:18
  Speaker 15: But honestly, as a party, we've been preparing for this
• 19:20
  Speaker 15: since the day after the caucuses in 2016.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: One big change since 2016, which we talked about in
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: more detail in an earlier episode, is that the party
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: is going to release more data on caucus night than
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: ever before. They'll release the raw vote totals after the
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: first count, then the raw vote totals after the second count,
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: which is after the realignment period. and the delegate numbers. Ultimately,
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: the Iowa caucuses are a competition to see who can
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: get the most delegates. So is the entire primary process.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: But this year, you could see a scenario where a
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: candidate who doesn't get the most delegates does get the
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: highest raw vote total. And then it's just off to
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: the races to spin the press on which is more important.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: When we come back, we'll see how the Klobuchar and
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: Sanders campaigns are filling the void while the bosses are
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: stuck in Washington. Patsy of America and I was brought
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: to you by feels. Do you experience stress? Do you
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: have anxiety or chronic pain or have trouble sleeping at
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: least once a week? I always read this copy the
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: night after I don't sleep at all. So you're not alone.
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: I'm not alone. Many of us do. That's why I
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: got to say I've done some of these feels drops before.
• 20:42
  Speaker 6: Quite often lately. I liked how the tense changed midway.
• 20:46
  Speaker 6: I have done them quite a lot lately.
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: They're really good.
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: It helps.
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: It helps you kind of mellow out at night. It
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: helps you fall asleep.
• 20:53
  Speaker 6: Honestly, honestly, if we could get Melania to kind of drip, drip,
• 20:56
  Speaker 6: drip a little CBD under the tongue.
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: Of the you-know-who, everything would be better. A little bit.
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: It wouldn't be as worse.
• 21:04
  Speaker 16: Yeah.
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: Like Donald Trump, we were searching for anything that would help.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: And then We discovered feels. Get them on that dropper
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: like it's a fucking hamster water bottle. Feels is a
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: premium CBD delivered directly to your doorstep. Feels naturally helps
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: reduce stress, anxiety, pain. Listen to my voice and sleeplessness.
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: Feel how calm everything is right now. It helps with sleeplessness. Listen.
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: I put love it to sleep. Listen. CBD. It's for me.
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: You know me. You put a few drops of feels
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: under your tongue. You feel the difference within minutes. Are
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: you new to CBD? Not even remotely new. Uh, feels
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: offers free CBD hotline and text message support to help
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: you guide your personal experience. One of those like ayahuasca guides,
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: but nothing like that. Nothing like that. Absolutely. Nothing. Nothing
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: like that. It works naturally to help you feel better.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: There's no high, there's no hangover, there's no addiction.
• 21:57
  Speaker 6: Just, just, just, just mellow. Just turns the volume down. Hey,
• 22:02
  Speaker 6: it just, just, uh, it's like, um, it's like a
• 22:04
  Speaker 6: rain machine for your mind.
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: Join the Feels community to get Feels delivered to your
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: door every month. You'll save money on every order and
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: you can pause or cancel at any time, but you're
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: not going to want to because this stuff is good.
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: Feels has me feeling my best every day. It can
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: help you too. Become a member today by going to feels.com
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: slash crooked. That's F-E-A-L-S dot com slash crooked. Get 50%
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: off your first order with free shipping. That's F-E-A-L-S dot
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: com slash crooked. Become a member. Get half off. Look,
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: you'll sleep better. It helps. It works.
• 22:37
  Speaker 6: Like Stevie Wonder says, you can feel it all over.
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: Oh. Positive America in Iowa is brought to you by SimpliSafe.
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: Every night, local police departments across America receive hundreds of
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: calls from burglar alarms. The vast majority of the time,
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: they have no idea whether the call or the alarm
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: is real. Is there really a crime going on or not?
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: The copy asks. All the alarm company can tell them is, quote,
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: the motion sensor went off. SimpliSafe home security is different.
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: If there's a break-in, SimpliSafe uses real video evidence to
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: give police an eyewitness account of the crime. That's a
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: really good idea. I like my SimpliSafe. That means police
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: dispatch up to 350% faster than for a normal burglar alarm.
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: Love it. Is that true when a certain life partner
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: of yours accidentally sets off the alarm? He's occasionally accidentally
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: set it off. He doesn't register beeping because it's not
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: a scoop alarm. Uh, so, but, um, but, uh, I
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: often will, uh, the app is really useful. So like, I'll,
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: I'll like, I'll, I'll be going to walk pundit and
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: I'll open the door and I'll already be kind of
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: be out the door and realize, oh, I forgot I'd
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: put the alarm on. And so the alarm is beeping
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: and I'll just, while we're walking, I'll just go into
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: my phone, turn the alarm off, turn it back on.
• 23:51
  Speaker 6: So you don't need to stop moving.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: Oh, that's so cool.
• 23:53
  Speaker 6: And like right now I'd be like, oh wait, did
• 23:55
  Speaker 6: I forget to turn the alarm on? I go into
• 23:56
  Speaker 6: my phone right now and bada beep, bada boop, I'm checking. And, uh,
• 24:00
  Speaker 6: That house is secure.
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: I've literally turned around from trips to the airport to
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: rearm an alarm, so that sounds like a very good service.
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: Get comprehensive protection for your entire home. Get outdoor cameras.
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: You can get doorbell alerts to anyone approaching your home.
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: There's entry and motion and glass break sensors that guard
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: the inside. Plus, SimpliSafe protects your home from fires, water damage,
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: and carbon monoxide poisoning. It's 24-7 monitoring.
• 24:25
  Speaker 6: Thankfully, you can't take that deep breath because you have
• 24:27
  Speaker 6: been alerted to any leaks.
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: It's 24-7 monitoring by live security professionals. You can set
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: up your system yourself. No tools needed, not a suite
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: or any other. Or SimpliSafe can do it for you,
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: and it's only 50 cents a day with no contracts.
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: Visit simplisafe.com slash crooked. You'll get free shipping and a
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: 60-day risk-free trial. You got nothing to lose. Go now
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: and be sure you go to simplisafe.com slash crooked so
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: they know where to send you. It's Friday morning, 10
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: days out from the Iowa caucuses. Amy Klobuchar is in D.C.
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: watching a whole bunch of Republicans pretend that Donald Trump
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: isn't guilty. Her daughter, Abigail Bessler, though, is in Newton, Iowa,
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: which is about 40 minutes east of Des Moines. When
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: we told Mitch Smith and another former Booker staffer that
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: we were going to a house party in Newton, they
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: literally said, I bet it's the Price House on such
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: and such street, and they were right. There were about
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: 30 people there for hot dish and the chance to
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: hear from Bessler. She's 24 years old, she's poised, she's funny,
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: and she stood on the house stairs near a very
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: distinctive cuckoo clock that luckily only went off once, and
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: she made the case for her mom.
• 25:45
  Speaker 10: Okay, well, thank you all for being here. I've been
• 25:48
  Speaker 10: campaigning for my mom this week. As you may know,
• 25:51
  Speaker 10: if you've been watching any of the national news, she
• 25:53
  Speaker 10: has a little bit of a scheduling conflict this week.
• 25:56
  Speaker 10: So I'm out here on her behalf. As she said,
• 25:58
  Speaker 10: she's a mom, so she can do two things at once.
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: Being a can-do mom is a big part of Amy
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: Klobuchar's pitch out here. Bessler said she'd been trying to
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: think of some embarrassing stories about her mom to tell
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: because Amy always trots out stories about her.
• 26:13
  Speaker 10: But as I was thinking through stories to tell about
• 26:15
  Speaker 10: my mom today, and I really did try to come
• 26:17
  Speaker 10: up with some embarrassing stories, I really actually just kept
• 26:21
  Speaker 10: coming back to one story, which is a story of
• 26:25
  Speaker 10: when I was born, which is actually the story of
• 26:27
  Speaker 10: how my mom got into politics in the first place.
• 26:30
  Speaker 10: So when I was born, I was really sick. I
• 26:32
  Speaker 10: actually couldn't swallow for the first year and a half
• 26:34
  Speaker 10: of my life. I had a feeding tube. And my mom,
• 26:38
  Speaker 10: just 24 hours after giving birth, was kicked out of
• 26:41
  Speaker 10: the hospital because at the time, the insurance rules were
• 26:44
  Speaker 10: that you just got kicked out in 24 hours no
• 26:46
  Speaker 10: matter what. I was still in the intensive care unit
• 26:49
  Speaker 10: at the time.
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: So....
• 26:51
  Speaker 10: She couldn't believe that, and she actually went out and advocated.
• 26:55
  Speaker 10: She wasn't an elected official. She was just a mom
• 26:57
  Speaker 10: and got the first law in the country passed to
• 27:00
  Speaker 10: guarantee new moms and their babies a 48-hour hospital stay,
• 27:03
  Speaker 10: which then became national law.
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: After she finished talking, Bessler took questions from the crowd.
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: Some of them were what you'd expect.
• 27:10
  Speaker 17: I've got two questions.
• 27:12
  Speaker 5: One, where does Amy stand on pro-choice and gun control?
• 27:19
  Speaker 18: At it.
• 27:20
  Speaker 10: So my mom has always been pro-choice.
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: While others were a little more niche.
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: I hear people that don't support her say they don't
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: like her stand on taking wolves off the endangered species
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: list in Minnesota.
• 27:38
  Speaker 14: Iowa.
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: Hot dish and high heat on wolf policy. From the
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: Pryke's house, we headed further east to Iowa City. We
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: wanted to check out the campaign we'd been hearing about
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: all weekend. Bernie Sanders. Everyone we talked to said that
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: it just felt like they were operating off the grid.
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: Bernie's not using the same apps and tools as the
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: rest of the field, so other campaigns aren't really able
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: to track their work. And they've been investing in turning
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: out new voters, and those people aren't necessarily showing up
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: in the call lists that everyone else is using. And
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: so the people we talked to felt like either the
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: Sanders campaign has this huge operation that they can't see,
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: or they don't, and we just won't know until caucus night.
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: But if the event I went to on Friday night
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: is any indicator, Iowa City is certainly feeling the burn.
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: It was snowy, it was cold, and Bernie Sanders himself
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: wasn't even there.
• 28:31
  Speaker 6: But that didn't stop about 800 people from showing up.
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: At the University of Iowa campus anyway. Mike Posner played
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: an acoustic set, and then Bernie called in from Washington
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: on a super shitty phone line. But no one really
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: seemed to mind because he had a pretty high-wattage surrogate
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: lined up, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
• 29:04
  Speaker 8: I spent so many years of my life scared. I
• 29:10
  Speaker 8: spent so many years of my life scared. I spent
• 29:13
  Speaker 8: years of my life scared that I wasn't going to
• 29:17
  Speaker 8: be able to make rent at the end of the month,
• 29:19
  Speaker 8: scared that I might get sick and not afford a doctor,
• 29:22
  Speaker 8: scared that the lights might be turned off on my
• 29:25
  Speaker 8: mom's house when I get home.
• 29:26
  Speaker 13: I'm sick of being scared. I want to solve these
• 29:30
  Speaker 13: problems once and for all. We should not be scared
• 29:41
  Speaker 13: of what will happen if we try. We should be
• 29:46
  Speaker 13: scared of what will happen if we don't.
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: She was, she is, really good. Really good. And she
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: gave a pitch to everyone in that room to give
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: as much as they can over the next 10 days.
• 29:58
  Speaker 8: We've got 10 days left. 10 days. So with that said,
• 30:10
  Speaker 8: we have 10 days left. I want every person in
• 30:14
  Speaker 8: this room to ask, what do we have to give
• 30:17
  Speaker 8: in the next 10 days? It could be canvassing every day.
• 30:21
  Speaker 13: It could be talking to your neighbor.
• 30:24
  Speaker 8: And even if you cannot caucus, In 10 days, you
• 30:29
  Speaker 8: still have something to give. Maybe you can babysit for
• 30:33
  Speaker 8: your neighbor while they go off after a long day
• 30:36
  Speaker 8: of work in order to caucus.
• 30:38
  Speaker 10: We all have something to give.
• 30:41
  Speaker 8: And all of us have power.
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: Now, it's important not to read too much into a
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: campaign getting big crowds. Lots of caucus goers attend events
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: for candidates they don't ultimately support. And lots of people
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: just probably wanted to see AOC speak. Clarity Guerra was there,
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: even though she's definitely going to caucus for Elizabeth Warren.
• 31:00
  Speaker 11: I will be caucusing for Elizabeth Warren, but I'm very
• 31:03
  Speaker 11: excited to be here tonight. And also just, you know,
• 31:06
  Speaker 11: feel solidarity with the groups that have kind of been.
• 31:11
  Speaker 4: Faux warring.
• 31:12
  Speaker 11: I don't want that feeling to persist, and I want
• 31:16
  Speaker 11: us to all feel like we're on the same team.
• 31:17
  Speaker 11: We all want to defeat Trump, so.
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: But whether or not that whole crowd was for Sanders,
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: it is undeniably impressive to get that many people out
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: on a freezing cold Friday night. And if just a
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: handful of those people leave as Bernie supporters or sign
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: up for a canvassing shift, it really adds up. Bernie's
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: campaign later told me people signed up for over 300
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: new volunteer shifts at just that one rally. Ari Rabenhop
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: is the deputy campaign manager for the Sanders campaign. I
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: told him that we'd heard from a bunch of other
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: campaigns that they just don't have a handle on what
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: Bernie is doing. A lot of folks are bracing for
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: Bernie's team to sneak up on the Macacus night.
• 31:54
  Speaker 17: It's not, I don't think it's a sneak up. We've
• 31:57
  Speaker 17: been pretty transparent about our hands. And I think the
• 32:01
  Speaker 17: problem is people don't buy it until, by the way,
• 32:04
  Speaker 17: they come to a room like this where Bernie Sanders
• 32:06
  Speaker 17: isn't going to be and a thousand people show up
• 32:09
  Speaker 17: in the room and then they're like, oh.
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: Bill Neidhart is the Iowa deputy state director for the
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: Sanders campaign. He says there are a few reasons they
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: might be flying a little under the radar. One is
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: relational organizing. We've talked about this before because the Warren
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: and Buttigieg campaigns are leaning on relational organizing too. That
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: means having your supporters call their friends, call their family,
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: and not just calling through the traditional voter rolls.
• 32:34
  Speaker 18: But I will say, relational is part of a program.
• 32:38
  Speaker 18: It's hugely important in Iowa. But the most important thing,
• 32:41
  Speaker 18: you know, just think about it. is the brute force
• 32:44
  Speaker 18: of having the largest volunteer base. That's our singular biggest
• 32:49
  Speaker 18: advantage in Iowa, is that we have more volunteers.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: It's as simple as that. Here's Ari again.
• 32:55
  Speaker 17: If you want to talk about other interesting pieces of Iowa,
• 32:58
  Speaker 17: I think us targeting communities that typically get left out
• 33:02
  Speaker 17: of the Iowa caucus has been, and targeting them in
• 33:06
  Speaker 17: very specific ways, the Latino community in Iowa, which is
• 33:08
  Speaker 17: strong and growing. Bernie Sanders has a huge base among
• 33:11
  Speaker 17: Latino voters today. across the United States. And there's a
• 33:13
  Speaker 17: significant portion in Iowa that have not caucused before. And
• 33:17
  Speaker 17: if you can drive them out to caucus, it changes
• 33:19
  Speaker 17: the dynamic of the caucus.
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: A few thousand.
• 33:21
  Speaker 17: People is a lot in the state.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: Two people in a precinct that doesn't get a lot
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: of turnout is.
• 33:25
  Speaker 15: A big deal.
• 33:27
  Speaker 18: The numbers where this is really clear is the Latino
• 33:31
  Speaker 18: community here. 2016, depending on the estimates, you have between 1,500
• 33:35
  Speaker 18: and 3,000 Latinos who caucused. You look at the actual population,
• 33:41
  Speaker 18: we're talking about over 50,000 registered voters who are Latino. So,
• 33:46
  Speaker 18: I mean, that is a massive gap. And that's, you know,
• 33:50
  Speaker 18: turning out that difference, you are playing with multiple percentage
• 33:53
  Speaker 18: points of the actual outcome.
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: For the caucus. Bernie's campaign strategy sounded pretty familiar to
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: me because that's the approach we took on the Obama
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: campaign in 2008. We knew that if we just focused
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: our efforts on traditional caucus goers, we would get killed.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: So we had to find and turn out new people.
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: Everyone said Obama couldn't do it, but that's how we won.
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: Can Bernie replicate that success? We just won't know until
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: Monday night. So there are probably a lot of people
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: listening to this episode and thinking, Tommy, just shut up
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: and tell us who's going to win. And while we
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: still have a no predictions rule here at Pod Save America,
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: here is what I will do for you. First, I'm
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: going to walk you guys through the results of an
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: Iowa poll we did with Change Research. that we did
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: exclusively for this episode. And then I'm gonna bounce some
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: of the cases I heard from campaign staffers and pundits
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: and reporters for how each major candidate could win or
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: do better than expected. And to keep me honest, I
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: brought in my Pod Save America co-host and Polar Coaster
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: fellow writer, Jon Favreau, for a gut check on what's
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: actually realistic. Jon, welcome to the show.
• 35:00
  Speaker 16: Thanks for having me. Let's ride that Polar Coaster.
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: Welcome to Des Moines, almost. Okay, first the poll results.
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: So here are the numbers. Bernie Sanders, 27%. Mayor Pete, 19%.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden, 18%. Elizabeth Warren, 15%. Amy Klobuchar, 10%. Yang
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: and Steyer have 4% each. So that is a sizable
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: eight-point lead for Bernie Sanders. And it tracks with other
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: polls that show him leading in the Iowa caucuses right now. Interestingly,
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: Bernie is way ahead with 18 to 34-year-olds. And he
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: even leads narrowly in our poll with 50 to 64-year-olds.
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: Biden finally takes the lead with caucus goers over 65. Now,
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: some notes about the sampling. The New York Times poll
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: estimates that 48% of caucus goers will be under 50.
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: Our poll, the change poll, estimates that only 38% of
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: caucus goers will be under 50, which is closer to
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: the estimates I've heard from some of the rival campaigns
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: to Bernie. So it's just worth noting that if there
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: is a surge of young people, it's likely that Sanders
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: will win even bigger than this poll says. But here
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: is a huge caveat. 48% of caucus goers say they
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: could still change their minds and 52% haven't made up
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: their minds or did so in the last month. So John,
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: pretty good news for Bernie Sanders here. Yeah, it's really,
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: really good news.
• 36:17
  Speaker 16: I mean, I was interested in this poll because we have,
• 36:20
  Speaker 16: I think the two best polls that are out there
• 36:22
  Speaker 16: right now are the Des Moines Register poll and the
• 36:23
  Speaker 16: New York Times Santa College poll. And I was wondering
• 36:25
  Speaker 16: if ours would look more like that or more like
• 36:27
  Speaker 16: some of the other ones that showed Biden in the lead.
• 36:29
  Speaker 16: And they certainly look more like the gold standard polls
• 36:32
  Speaker 16: that show Bernie leading. And what you just mentioned about
• 36:34
  Speaker 16: the age groups really stuck with me, that the fact
• 36:38
  Speaker 16: that Bernie is leading among every age group up to
• 36:41
  Speaker 16: 64 years old shows that, like you said, whatever the
• 36:45
  Speaker 16: turnout is among young people, it basically could mean a
• 36:48
  Speaker 16: difference between Bernie winning by what we're seeing in this
• 36:51
  Speaker 16: poll or even more.
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah. And you were saying you saw some interesting things
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: about what happens after realignment.
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 36:56
  Speaker 16: So the other thing, we asked people in our poll,
• 36:59
  Speaker 16: Just choose between these four candidates, Bernie, Biden, Pete and Warren,
• 37:03
  Speaker 16: because those were the four candidates over viability threshold just
• 37:07
  Speaker 16: to see what reallocation might look like. And it turns
• 37:10
  Speaker 16: out that no candidate, no one candidate benefits disproportionately from reallocation,
• 37:16
  Speaker 16: which is even better news for Bernie Sanders, because there
• 37:18
  Speaker 16: was some talk that after reallocation, maybe Klobuchar supporters or
• 37:22
  Speaker 16: some of the other ones. go to a moderate like
• 37:23
  Speaker 16: Biden and boost him. But it turns out that it
• 37:26
  Speaker 16: boosts everyone equally.
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, honestly, the best news for Bernie maybe
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: in all these polls is that he has a bunch
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: of rival candidates who are splitting the so-called moderate vote.
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: And there's a prisoner's dilemma here that's shaping up well
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: for him. Okay, let me run by you a couple
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: best case scenarios for each of the major candidates for
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: how they could win or do well.
• 37:42
  Speaker 14: Cool.
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: So Bernie Sanders, we kind of just did this one.
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: He's leading our poll. He's leading the New York Times poll,
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: the CBS poll. His supporters over time have been rock solid.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: They're least likely to jump ship And Pete Biden and
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: Amy Klobuchar are splitting the moderate vote. So that's a
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: pretty good case for Bernie there.
• 37:58
  Speaker 16: Yeah. And I think the other thing I'd add to
• 37:59
  Speaker 16: that is the one candidate who's been losing the most
• 38:01
  Speaker 16: altitude in all of these polls is Elizabeth Warren, who
• 38:04
  Speaker 16: has been, and basically Bernie has been gaining from her
• 38:07
  Speaker 16: loss more than any other candidate.
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Joe Biden. So he's the best known. He's arguably
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: the most experienced. And In a state where all anyone
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: cares about is so-called electability, you could see late deciding
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: voters break to his corner because they think he's the
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: guy who can beat Trump.
• 38:24
  Speaker 16: So the New York Times had a story yesterday morning.
• 38:27
  Speaker 16: A third of people who participated in an Iowa Democratic
• 38:30
  Speaker 16: primary in 16 or 18, the primary, not the caucus,
• 38:34
  Speaker 16: said they weren't likely to caucus this time around. And
• 38:37
  Speaker 16: those voters backed Biden by 11 points. So some of
• 38:40
  Speaker 16: these polls may be showing Biden ahead because he has
• 38:43
  Speaker 16: voters who are less committed, even though they're older. So
• 38:46
  Speaker 16: Biden could win if he actually mobilizes some of these older,
• 38:48
  Speaker 16: less committed voters.
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: That's tough news for Biden because, you know, I don't
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: think many observers have seen him with a particularly strong
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: organization that could mobilize those voters. All right. Mayor Pete.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: So he effectively capitalized on early press attention and money.
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: And he started running TV ads in Iowa to build
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: name ID. He's also put together a strong organization. He's
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: carved out a moderate sort of unifying position that appeals
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: to Iowa caucus goers. So you could still see him
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: surprising people here, I think.
• 39:17
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 39:17
  Speaker 16: And I think geographically, he has some of the most
• 39:20
  Speaker 16: evenly distributed support. The other thing I thought was interesting
• 39:22
  Speaker 16: from our poll is we asked people, do you want
• 39:24
  Speaker 16: a candidate who can beat Donald Trump or a candidate
• 39:27
  Speaker 16: who will change Washington in a big way and beat Democrats?
• 39:30
  Speaker 16: Trump is Biden and Klobuchar supporters, which is not surprising.
• 39:34
  Speaker 16: Change Washington is Bernie and Warren. But Pete is also
• 39:37
  Speaker 16: change Washington, his supporters by a large margin. So Pete
• 39:40
  Speaker 16: could actually benefit from people who both want to be
• 39:42
  Speaker 16: Trump and change Washington.
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: Interesting. Elizabeth Warren. So she was leading for a while,
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: but then she took some shots on Medicare for all.
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: and dips in the polls. She's rebounded a bit in
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: the latest Des Moines Register poll. She also got some
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: late momentum with endorsements from the New York Times, or
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: at least half of it, in the Des Moines Register.
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: And she has what I believe to be the strongest
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: organization that can help capture that support and put her
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: over the top. That's probably her best case. Yes, that
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: and in our poll, she is everyone's second choice, pretty much.
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: She's the second choice of most people's candidates.
• 40:13
  Speaker 16: So if she can capture some enthusiasm in this final week,
• 40:16
  Speaker 16: like you said, the organization and the endorsements could put
• 40:18
  Speaker 16: her over the top.
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: Amy Klobuchar. She's close, strong. She had strong debate performances.
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: She got the other half of the New York Times
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: editorial board's endorsement. She got some Iowa newspaper endorsements. She
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: has a bunch of electeds who support her in Iowa.
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: And there's sort of a Minnesota cultural affinity and electability
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: argument that she's been making that you could see leading
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: to her having a surprisingly strong finish and then going
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: on to the later states. Yeah.
• 40:43
  Speaker 16: Biggest plus for Amy Klobuchar in our poll, late momentum.
• 40:46
  Speaker 16: One out of every four people who've made up their
• 40:48
  Speaker 16: minds in the last week have gone to Klobuchar.
• 40:50
  Speaker 10: Wow.
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: That's great news for her.
• 40:51
  Speaker 10: Okay.
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: Andrew Yang, the Yang gang. No one has outworked Andrew
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: Yang in Iowa in this final stretch. And like everybody
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: likes Andrew Yang. You don't hear a lot of people
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: who don't like him. He's doing four or five town
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: halls a day. He's doing it for 17 days straight.
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: And he's bringing new people into the process that don't
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: look like traditional caucus goers. Now, it's unlikely that he'll win,
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: but he may pick up some delegates. He may be
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: a spoiler in some precincts. And that might really help
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: him propel himself to the next contest.
• 41:18
  Speaker 16: Yeah, I think that's right. What I'm watching for on
• 41:20
  Speaker 16: Yang is it seems like there could be some overlap
• 41:23
  Speaker 16: with Yang supporters and maybe even Bernie supporters. So I
• 41:26
  Speaker 16: wonder what he does to Bernie's margin.
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's interesting to me, too. John, you'll love this one. Lastly,
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: there's the total clusterfuck scenario. This is where you have
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: one candidate win the delegates. You have another win the
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: raw vote total. A bunch of them are kind of
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: grouped together and close in the final margin, and they
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: just limp along until New Hampshire and things just get
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: nastier and nastier.
• 41:45
  Speaker 16: We haven't talked about this enough, I think, and because
• 41:48
  Speaker 16: it could be the most likely scenario. And even if
• 41:51
  Speaker 16: Bernie wins a clear in the raw percentage, Bernie wins,
• 41:55
  Speaker 16: I think the way delegates could get split, like what
• 41:57
  Speaker 16: if Bernie only wins one or two more delegates than
• 41:59
  Speaker 16: the next candidate? Then we're just moving on and that's it.
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: John, thanks for being here. On that hopeful note, there
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: is one more loop we have to close on this series.
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: Back in the third episode, we talked to the Iowa
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: State Auditor and my pseudo doppelganger, Rob Sand. He talked
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: about the campaigns seeking his endorsement and his struggle making
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: up his mind. Rob was one of the few Democrats
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: to win statewide in Iowa in 2018. And so he's
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: a coveted get. And I wanted to check in with
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: him and just see what he was thinking. We caught
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: up with Rob in his enormous, gorgeous office in the
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: Iowa State Capitol, which is full of taxidermy of deer
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: and other things that he's bowhunted.
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: I have said I don't think I'm going to endorse.
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: I still think that that's true. But my brain is
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: just like always thinking about stuff. And it could happen
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: that I wake up at three in the morning next
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: week and I'm like, this is the right thing to do.
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: And here's the reason why that I just realized.
• 42:59
  Speaker 10: Yeah.
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: But right now I keep coming back to this. We
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: have so little ability to pick the right horse, right?
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: And so much of choosing sides seems to be about
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: picking the right horse, but this is not a horse race.
• 43:19
  Speaker 4: This is not a bet.
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: This is supposed to be us making sure that we
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: went back to white house and that American values are
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: upheld and the American traditions are upheld. And those are
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: the stakes in 2020. And then I keep coming back
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: to this. Citizens need to be looking for sacrifice, not
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: for saviors. There is no one person that if we
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: select the right person, we can then put our feet
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: up and say, ha ha, we've outwitted you. Look who
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: we nominated.
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: It doesn't work that way.
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: And I, and I, and I don't want to participate
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: in the system that seems to right now, be so
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: heavily favored towards looking for a savior. I want to
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: tell people like, let's expect sacrifices. There's this guy, Steve
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: Fredrickson in Jasper County who quit his part-time job in
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: the run-up to the 18 elections to volunteer full-time. So
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: he literally just said, you know what? I can work
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: after election day. You know what I can't do? Make
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: phone calls, knock doors. It isn't, voting is not enough.
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, we have to have people who are activated
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: in ways they never have. And, and, Making sacrifices the
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: way that Steve Fredrickson did in 18 to make sure
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: that we win this. For whoever's listening, whoever does care,
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: that's what I want them to hear me say, that
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: we need to make a sacrifice. And so our own desires,
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: we need to negate. And so in that sense, I
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: negate my own desires. Could I do the hard thinking
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: of deciding who my actual favorite is and make an endorsement?
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: Yes, I could.
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: But if I did that at the end of the day,
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: what I'm saying is this is the person that we pick.
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: And what I would rather have people hear me say
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: is it's not about who we pick. It's about who
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: we are and what we actually do to make sure
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: that we win for whoever the nominee is.
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: I've said all along that the field organizers are the
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: lifeblood of these campaigns and that they are the most
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: important people in all of this. So I want to
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: give them the last word. Here's Mitch Smith again.
• 45:18
  Speaker 14: There's a lot of reason to be scared and worried
• 45:20
  Speaker 14: right now, but I think there's also a lot of
• 45:22
  Speaker 14: reason to be very hopeful. And I was lucky because
• 45:26
  Speaker 14: I got to see the on-the-ground reality of people exercising
• 45:30
  Speaker 14: their ability to make change. And that's an ability that
• 45:33
  Speaker 14: no matter what the hell crazy shit Trump is doing,
• 45:36
  Speaker 14: we still have a chance to do. And so we
• 45:40
  Speaker 14: better do it.
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: And here's Olivia Ellis.
• 45:45
  Speaker 7: Please come volunteer. I mean, this is, it's like a
• 45:48
  Speaker 7: four-way tie, basically. And organizing means so much right now.
• 45:52
  Speaker 7: And so if you believe in Elizabeth Warren's vision of
• 45:55
  Speaker 7: what this country can be, like, come do something about it.
• 45:58
  Speaker 7: Turn off this podcast and come knock doors.
• 46:00
  Speaker 4: Sorry.
• 46:01
  Speaker 10: Yes.
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: That's how we're ending the show. Get your ass to
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: Iowa for a week.
• 46:05
  Speaker 10: Yeah.
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: Now, I'm not here to tell you to go support
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: Warren or any other candidate. That's Olivia's job. But I
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: want you guys to support the person who feels right
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: to you. And just to know that it is not
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: too late. I mean, literally, if you are listening to
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: this right now, it is not too late to help
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: the campaign and the candidate you believe in. It's not
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: too late to go to Iowa. You can drive there.
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: You can fly there for that last weekend. You can
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: make calls from your house and send texts from wherever
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: you are. It is definitely, definitely not too late for
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: New Hampshire or Super Tuesday or the general election. Because
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: I know that Olivia and Mitch are going to do
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: the work. but we will only win this election if
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: the rest of us do too.
• 46:47
  Speaker 7: And I can tell you, you know, Donald Trump and
• 46:50
  Speaker 7: his cohort has been organizing for almost four years now
• 46:55
  Speaker 7: for this. And so people, you know, will say, oh,
• 46:57
  Speaker 7: there's a lot of time. And, you know, you really
• 47:00
  Speaker 7: don't have time. Like, think back to how you felt
• 47:02
  Speaker 7: the morning after the 2016 election and think about what
• 47:05
  Speaker 7: more you could have done. Like, you know, pick up
• 47:08
  Speaker 7: the call from your organizer, knock one packet, You know,
• 47:11
  Speaker 7: it really means all the difference.
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: I'm Tommy Vitor. This series is produced by Kat Aaron.
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: Production help from Justine Daum, Nagarainish Ashagre. Joel Lovell is
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: our editor. Music and mixing by Hannes Brown. The executive
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: producers at Pineapple Street Studios are Jenna Weiss-Berman and Max Linsky.
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: Thanks also to Maria Robbins-Somerville and Alexis Moore. A special
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: thank you to Tanya Somanator, Sarah Wick, Michael Martinez, Kyle Seglin,
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: Brian Semel, Nikki Fancy, and Jordan Silber from the Crooked
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: Media team.
• 47:58
  Speaker 4: How long are you guys here?
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: Oh, was I supposed to be quiet?