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The three big threats to the U.S. economy · Apple News Today

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  Shumita Basu, Narrating: Good morning! It's Wednesday, September 20th. I'm Shumita Basu. This is “Apple News Today.” On today's show…
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  As baby boomers age, their children are struggling to afford caring for them…
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  Why Illinois eliminated cash bail for defendants…
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  And the U.S. has a new UNESCO World Heritage site.
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  But first, the Fed will make its latest policy announcement later today. The expectation is, it'll keep interest rates right where they are. Investors and politicians love to hate on the Fed, but right now, the consensus is the central bank is doing just fine. Inflation in the U.S. is down sharply from where it was during the worst of the pandemic. And the labor market is still pretty healthy. So, the thinking at the Federal Reserve seems to be, sit back, watch the data, and see how all the previous interest-rate hikes play out.
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  But the problem is, there are some hairy things on the horizon, serious economic threats well beyond the Fed's control. Some are in motion this week, and there are three worth watching.
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  Let's start with the United Auto Workers strike, which is underway, but it could get bigger. Right now, only a few thousand union members are on strike, out of more than 140,000 nationwide. But the union says, if the Big Three automakers don't offer better deals by Friday, it'll expand the strike. Michael Brisson, at Moody's Analytics, talked to “CNBC” about the potentially devastating economic impact of a widespread strike.
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  Michael Brisson: If it goes all the way up to all 140,000, that could be almost $450 million per day to the U.S. economy.
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  [END CNBC ARCHIVAL CLIP]
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  Then there's the possibility of a government shutdown. That's looking more likely after a group of Republican hardliners blocked consideration of a defense bill yesterday. House Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, did not sound happy afterwards.
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  [START NBC NEWS ARCHIVAL CLIP]
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  [BACKGROUND SOUND: INDISTINCT CHATTER FROM THE CROWD]
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  Kevin McCarthy: The idea that you vote against a rule to even bring it up, doesn't make sense to me.
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  [REPORTERS SIMULTANEOUSLY ASK QUESTIONS]
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  [LOUDLY] Especially when you talk about defense.
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  [END NBC NEWS ARCHIVAL CLIP]
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  A shutdown could happen if there's no spending deal in place by the end of next week. And that could cut off paychecks for hundreds of thousands of federal workers.
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  It's still possible that there could be agreements to end the auto strike and avoid a government shutdown. But there's no escaping the third big economic factor: student loan payments restart in October, after a three-year pandemic suspension. All that time, people with education debt had money freed up to spend on other things. Now, tens of millions of Americans will need to resume their payments. And that will take its toll on the broader economy. So, the medium-term future of the U.S. economy may be less about what the Fed says today, and more about what happens at the bargaining tables this week, in Michigan and on Capitol Hill.
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  Now, let's take a look at something that's happening in Illinois, that has national implications. It recently became the first state to eliminate cash bail. On any given day, roughly half a million people in the U.S. are held in jail, not because they've been convicted of a crime, but because they're waiting for their day in court, and they can't afford to pay bail to be released. Critics have said for a long time the system effectively criminalizes poverty.
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  Lavette Mayes: My bail was set at 250,000, 25,000 to walk. I couldn't afford that bond.
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  That's Lavette Mayes. She spoke with “WBEZ” about how the cash bail system upended her life. She spent more than a year in jail waiting for trial, eventually losing her home and her job, which was tough on both her and her kids. Mayes became an advocate to change the system. And she talked about how it feels to see cash bail end in Illinois.
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  Mayes: [EXHALES HEAVILY] I feel like a load has been lifted because we finally got something that's going to help the Black and Brown community. Now I can sleep knowing that people just won't be able to be sent back to jail because they can't afford to pay bail.
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  Illinois has taken the strongest step of eliminating cash bail but giving judges the discretion to still detain someone before trial if they think they're a flight risk or a threat to the public. Other places have severely limited its use - places like Washington DC, New York, New Jersey, and Alaska.
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  In Alaska the experiment to limit cash bail didn't last long. Statistics showed no difference in rearrests after the policy change. But property crimes went up after the law took effect and public backlash followed. Soon, lawmakers amended the law to give judges more discretion over bail decisions.
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  Experts see Washington D.C. as a success story. Cash bail has been rare for about three decades now there. It's only imposed on people who are deemed a flight risk, and their bail cannot exceed their ability to pay. Data shows, court appearance rates for defendants remained high. And very few were arrested for another crime.
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  Now, we'll see what happens in Illinois, the place that's taking this thinking the furthest.
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  On yesterday's show, we talked about the challenges baby boomers face finding affordable housing. Today, let's talk about how the responsibility of caring for seniors as they age is often falling on their adult children. And many of those adults are struggling. Anna North from “Vox” told us about some of the reasons why.
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  Anna North: Baby boomers are also interesting because their family structures were really different than generations past. So, they had smaller families. They were more likely to divorce. They had children later. All these things affect who is available to take care of you as you age.
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  By the year 2030, the U.S. will have more residents over 65 than children. Most will need long-term care at some point, but more than 40 percent of baby boomers have no retirement-savings accounts. Meanwhile their kids find themselves in this "sandwich generation," where they'll have elderly parents and their own young children to care for at the same time. About a quarter of American adults are dealing with this reality currently.
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  North: It's incredibly stressful. People find themselves stretched really thin between needing to take care of perhaps their parents, their grandparents and taking care of their kids. And it can also be an enormous financial challenge to deal with paying for that care while you're still paying for childcare.
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  Women often bear more of the care-taking burden. It doesn't help that the network for elder care in the U.S. is fragmented and expensive. Medicare doesn't cover most long-term care. Medicaid only kicks in when seniors have close to no money left. Paying for a full-time, home health aide costs nearly $60,000 a year. The cost for a semi-private room in a nursing home can be close to $100,000 annually. The people North spoke to told her: “something's gotta give.”
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  North: What everybody I talk to emphasize to me is the importance of improved paid leave. Right now, people can take unpaid time off under the Family Medical Leave Act to care for an older relative, but that's just not feasible for a lot of people. You just can't afford to go without your salary.
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  “Vox” spoke to several people about how caring for a parent has forced them to make considerable life changes. A man named John said he often pulls all-nighters to finish work he couldn't get to while juggling care for his five-month-old daughter and his mother with Alzheimer's.
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  A woman named Michelle said her mornings started with helping her father out of bed, getting him showered, making sure he eats breakfast. Also, nonstop laundry, meal-planning, and grocery shopping, for herself and her parents. And a full-time job. It took a lot of time and mental energy. She told “Vox,” it felt like she was lighting herself on fire to keep other people warm.
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  North: Something that Michelle and really, like, all the family caregivers I spoke with emphasized is just that this needs to be talked about more. And that they felt isolated on their caregiving journeys because there's not a public dialogue and because people get uncomfortable even talking about this in private.
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  The United States has a new UNESCO World Heritage site. These are places officially designated by the United Nations as culturally important to humanity - places like the Taj Mahal and the Great Wall of China. The newest addition is called the Hopewell Ceremonial Earthworks, and it's in southern Ohio.
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  I want you to picture this: multiple mounds of earth - some up to 30 feet high - rising up in these gentle, sloped hills. They form shapes: circles, squares, octagons. These are ceremonial centers built around 2,000 years ago by Indigenous people, who have been referred to in the past as the Hopewell culture. “NPR” member station “WVXU” spoke with Chief Ben Barnes of the Shawnee Tribe about what this means for his ancestors.
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  Chief Ben Barnes: They're great civil engineers, they're artists, they're astronomers, mathematicians. And for my people, that's not the way that Shawnee people or any Indigenous peoples in this country are typically portrayed in media.
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  UNESCO says the site is a "masterpiece of human creative genius." And the design - while maybe it looks simple to the untrained eye - tells a rich story about the people who built them. That they understood geometry, architecture, astronomy and knew how to create something spectacular and enduring.
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  Jennifer Aultman, with Ohio History Connection, was part of the team working on the World Heritage nomination. The quest for recognition goes back to 2008. She talked with “WVXU” about how it feels to finally make the list.
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  Jennifer Aultman: That's really an incredible idea that there's something that all people, no matter of their nationality, no matter where they grew up, that we should care about because they help us understand what it means to be human. And then there are more local reasons. You know, we work with our tribal partners, who, the tribes were removed from Ohio in the 19th century. And this is a way to help elevate their heritage.
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  She says she hopes the UNESCO World Heritage designation will raise awareness and inspire more people to see the Hopewell Ceremonial Earthworks for themselves.
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  You can find all these stories and more in the Apple News app, including coverage of the results of the yesterday's elections in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. And if you're already listening in the News app right now, stick around.
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  “Vox's” reporting that we talked about, on the looming elder-care crisis, is coming up next as a narrated article. So, enjoy listening to that, and I'll be back with the news tomorrow.
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