Latest / Financial Survival Network / The Truth About Florida Real Estate -- Zev Friedus #5904

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The Truth About Florida Real Estate -- Zev Friedus #5904 · Financial Survival Network

0:00
So the inventory is very low right now, but that is primarily driven by
0:06
the high interest right environment. And the connection between the two is as follows.
0:11
If I built my house three years ago, five years ago, and
0:15
I have a three percent interest mortgage, then I can't afoord to move.
0:21
So if I make a lateral move, the cost is going to be astronomic.
0:24
I'm gonna go. I'm paying three percent to playing eight percent. So
0:27
people just saying, look, you're listening to Carrie Let's Financial Survival Network,
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Financial Survival Network now more than ever. And welcome you are listening to watching
0:59
the finance will Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutts. Well,
1:02
hey, we're going to talk to somebody about Florida real estate, but more
1:06
importantly about technology how it has changed the business. Ze fredis He's a neighbor
1:11
of mine down in a Boca Raton, Florida, and the background of his
1:17
picture is actually I want to call a shopping set entertainment center. It's kind
1:23
of evolved into shopping center to an office complex called Meisner Park. If any
1:27
of you were familiar with it, and Zev, you have a background in
1:33
technology, you once upon a time worked for a GEU pretty much marketing software,
1:41
and then you got into real estate. Kind of an interesting story.
1:45
How did that happen? Right? So? I relocated from New York to
1:51
Florida in the late nineties, and I had a goal of investing in real
1:55
estate, residential real estate, just buying multiple and etch properties and renting them.
2:01
So I bought a couple and I ran out of down payment money.
2:05
So I took a day job in the field that I was trained in.
2:10
So I kind a job with a local company. They ended up getting acquired
2:14
by ge I climbed the ladder. I ended up being a product marketing manager
2:17
for quite a successful launch enterprise software product. As I did that for a
2:23
number of years, I traveled all around the world for them, and I
2:27
realized that in doing so, I had put my real estate goals on back
2:32
burner, and a number of years had gone by I had not bought another
2:36
investment property. All the while my co workers were always picking my brain for
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I'm not going there. I was still trying to buy my first house.
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I heard Joe on three How'd you do it? Two thousand and five.
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I just decided to quit my day job and just focus on our real estate.
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So I kind of just fell into it, like most realtors do.
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I figured, if people ask me advice, if I can collect a commission,
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then I can deter or of ament my job search. So I did
3:12
that a few times, and then I ran out of people to sell houses
3:14
too. So I realized that I need to reach the masses. So I
3:17
turned to what I know, which is technology. I put together a website,
3:21
I did some search engine optimization that I started generating some leads, and
3:24
the rest, as they say, is history. I built a huge business
3:29
around that, all right. And so at one point you said, using
3:34
technology, you were able to generate more leads than you could even deal with.
3:40
Yeah. Sure, yeah, most people are trying to rely on the
3:45
history of influence. But regard, no matter how big of a networker you
3:50
are, no matter how big your social circles are, there still only so
3:53
many people that you know personally, and after they all are settled into their
3:57
new homes. You still need to make a living, but if you can
3:59
reach some asses and the Internet is the way to do that, and then
4:02
the sky's the limit. Really, So I just got people off the Internet
4:06
wanting to see Holmes. I would go make them show them homes off the
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MLS, sell it to them like the commission, and then I would turn
4:13
around and recruit the listing agent whose home I just sold with the promise of
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I'll give you leads because I have more than I can handle. And that's
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why I built the business. Fifty percent of all the deals in that company
4:28
were company generated at these versus if you're looking in the brokeradge, it's ninety
4:32
nine point nine nine percent agent generated. So most people, most agents,
4:38
like we were talking pre call, like your average realtor didn't when he was
4:43
three years old, you know, and kids are saying, I want to
4:46
be a cop, but I want to be a fireman. He didn't say,
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gee, I want to be a a realtor, you know, a
4:53
real estate right. So so you deal with a lot of and I'm not
4:59
being to sparranging at all here, but you really deal with with like a
5:03
lot of misfits, don't you you mean the realtors. Yeah, the realtors
5:06
themselves. Yeah, yeah, yes, and yes. But you know,
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I'll tell you there's always, there's always you just have to look at it
5:15
differently. So I come from New York. The work ethic in New York
5:18
is much different than than yeah, here in Florida. He's gonna be New
5:25
Yorker. As a fellow New Yorker, I'm laughing, Well, how long
5:30
have you been down here? Well, I've been coming down since I was
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six. But but you know, it's always been my second home. My
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family lived here. My grandparents moved down in the sixties, my mother and
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sister moved here in the early eighties, and you know, it was always
5:48
a lot like land of the slackers, right right, Dan. I think
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you know it's changing now, especially in the last three years with so many
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people migrating here from New York. I think that, you know, we've
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stepped up a lot. But but for many years, I agree, and
6:03
younger people too, because it was always hey, God's waiting room, right
6:10
correct. So the thing is, you know, coming down here from New
6:14
York with my work ethic and everybody here's wearing flip flops and shorts. The
6:17
short you know, there's a lot of misfits to deal with. But the
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flip side of that is it made it so much easier to be better than
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that. I simply put it, the real church community year was like the
6:31
real church community in New York City. I think it would have been a
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lot harder for me to break into this business. Yeah, yeah, well,
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without saying anything disparaging. Look, Florida is a leisure based lifestyle,
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right, I mean I used to spend eighty percent of my time figuring out
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how to better my career, improve my career, make more money, and
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twenty percent on leisure activities. Now I spend eighty percent of my time planning
7:03
my next fun outing and I spend twenty percent of my time on career.
7:09
But I'm a lot better at this career than I used to be, So
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I don't need to spend the amount of time and I don't want to,
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you know, in different days of life. So I've been really successful.
7:21
Competition is lacking, But nowadays, can you still use the same formula that
7:29
you used back in twenty fourteen and achieve the same results. Is it more
7:33
costly or do you have to change things? Right? So I believe that
7:39
you can. I believe it's not as easy as it was back then.
7:43
Competition certainly is more furious, but the reward is still there. And I
7:49
know that because last time around I built my business, it was completely built
7:55
on generating real estate leads online. The way you do that is through search
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engine optimization. So you try to rank on particular keywords related to the to
8:07
the areas we're working. And there's something called keyword research, which we do
8:13
when we're trying to identify the correct keywords. And the bottom line is,
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if you take the predominant keywords in this area for real estate and you do
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the keyword research, there's still the approximately the same amount of volume every month
8:26
as there was twenty years ago. So the same amount of people pretty much
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go to Google every month and search for real estate, boat or a tone
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of or in any other made club as they did in two thousand and five.
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And there is still real estate companies like mine that are ranking. Yes,
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there's some big portal sites like the Real gen are common zero in those
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sites that dominate the first page of Google, but there's always a few local
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companies also on the first page of Google. So if if there are small,
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independent, local companies that are able to make it to the first page,
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and there's the surge volume is still there. The only stands to region
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the reason that if you can get yourself a seat at that table, you're
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on the same the same results and we did last Do you have to spend
9:11
more money though to get the same results you used to? Yeah, more,
9:16
more time, more money, and you got to be better, all
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right, So so more time, more money, but it's still profitable.
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Yeah, I mean, because think about it. Search engine optimization is all
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relative, right, There is not a magic formula that gets you the number
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one spot in Google. You just to be the number one spot. You
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just have to be better than the number two spot. It's relative relative,
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so every someone is trying to outrank someone else. So the so the stakes
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are ready awesome. How much could just give us? For instance, you
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don't get to the nitty gritty, we don't want to trade secrets, but
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how much could a lead costs nowadays? So I mean, look, the
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best way to put a number on that is to look at the big portal
10:01
site to sell eads and see what they charge. It could easily be one
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hundred dollars a lead, like the this is the loads of the world,
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and and they all have the distance models. Either they charge you, you
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know, monthly fee for x amount you know range of leads, or they
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charge you per lead, or they charge you sometimes a percentage of the commission
10:24
that you make from that. They did a lot of different ways to demonetize
10:26
it, but one way or another, Elite is worth easy one hundred dollars.
10:33
And I mean a lot of these places who sell you leads for giver
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take that amount. They'll sell the same leads and multiple people. Yeah,
10:39
Like the second you click that you're interested in a mortgage, your phone starts
10:45
ringing off the hook. That's what they do right now. The flip side
10:50
of that, if you can from the realtor perspective, because I talked to
10:54
real churs every day. I hire realtors and they say, oh, I
10:56
signed up for this on that one and I get leads, but I could
11:00
never get them on the phone. The line is always busy. The reason
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the line is busy is because that person, like you said, they clicked
11:07
the button and then the company that captured the lead, they sent it out
11:13
automatically to I don't know four or five different agents, so by the time
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you can dial the phone, you know somebody beat you to it. Okay,
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And and let's not forget that also people don't answer their phones like they
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once did. That is true, But I think the bigger challenge is that
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the that they give the same lead to multiple agents. And I know for
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a fact that there are some brokerages that buy these leads and have automated systems
11:43
to dial all the customer as soon as the lead comes in. Yeah,
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predictive dialers, right, like like some software that the email or text message
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that comes from the lead provider and then dials the bone and then connects it
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to a live person pull center. So if you're if you're just an agent
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riding around town with customers in your car, and you want to buy leads
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from one of these providers, and they're also selling it to one of those
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companies with call center and an autodialer, you're never going to get an You're
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at a real so you got an auto dialer there and you've got people sitting
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at the phone. So h me, I don't because I just build a
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few things. I don't buy leads from these providers because I'm not interesting leads
12:24
I go to other people. I generally lease myself. And my promise to
12:28
my agents is I will not give If I give you a lead, I
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give it to you all the head. I'm not going to get a ten
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dios right, Okay. So so your agents get a better deal because you're
12:43
generating the leads, and you get more value for your dollars spent. By
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generating leads from my agents, I do two things. I create a value
12:50
proposition from my agents. Right, if half of their business is coming from
12:56
they're broker, they're not, they wouldn't even think about switching broker because they
13:00
leave their business behind. So that's number one, it's great for hiring and
13:05
retaining agents. And number two, I just grow the bottom line because if
13:09
my agents sell, lare I make more? Right? Yeah, So it's
13:13
a cosanguinity of interest there. And because we know that brokers otherwise, we'll
13:22
just go to the highest bidder where they get the highest commission rate. Right,
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I mean you right, agents, So the terminologies they have one cls
13:31
agents right, right, So the agents will just go, We'll just go
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and there's there's brokers that do it for one hundred percent. You know,
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and so if you know the old the old saying in this business, when
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you become the broker, right, when you first you're an agent working under
13:46
broker, then if you become the broker, the joke is that you become
13:50
broke or the client became broker, like stock market broke, right, right.
14:01
But that's it. But that's because most brokers are competing on price,
14:05
and when you compete on price, it's just a race to the bottom because
14:07
there's always somebody willing to work for less than you. So if you ask
14:11
value, it's different. So let's look at a different business model. When
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you're talking about discount brokers. Here in real estate, we think of redfin,
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right, Oh, has that model proven successful for them? So the
14:28
redfin model is actually a little different. The redfin model is very dependent on
14:33
lead generation. But then how they monetize it as different. So they take
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the lead, they hire agents, and they pay them not a salary,
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but they pay them, say per showing let's say anything orders to go open
14:48
the door. So they generate a lead off the internet and they then send
14:52
it to an agent to go open the door and let them see the house.
14:56
And they don't have to pay the agent because they paid the agent as
15:01
they went, you know, to open the door. So the house gets
15:05
the broker, I guess keep the whole commission. Now, Yeah, could
15:07
be a discounting commission because they give back some of the commissions to the client
15:11
and that's just their incentive on how to get the clients to work with them.
15:16
But ultimately it's very profitable for the broker because they don't have to pay
15:20
out the commissions to the agients. Right. Okay, So so you don't
15:28
sound super enthusiastic about it, is that the it's very profitable for dvand Redgens,
15:35
a very good company. I think that the I mean, look,
15:39
it's a trade off if you as an agent, if you want a more
15:45
sure, steady income, you can do that, but they're not going to
15:48
make the upside that a commission based agent. Right, So less risk,
15:54
less reward right, a lot of guaranteed income. Buzz you Your income is
16:00
your guarantee is less? Right? Yeah, like most things, right,
16:06
risk versus rewarding. Yeah, it's fascinating. So, hey, what I
16:11
really wanted to get John was talk about the state of Florida real estate,
16:15
because all we hear about is higher interest rates, and you know, basically
16:23
Florida real estate is going to go down. Florida sales are down year over
16:27
year. I'm not sure if that's more an issue of inventory or if it's
16:33
just an issue of interest rates. What's your take there, So it's both
16:37
and they're connected to each other. So inventory is very low right now,
16:44
but that is primarily driven by the high interest rate environment. And the connection
16:48
between the two is as follows. If I bought my house three years ago,
16:53
five years ago, and I have a three percent interest mortgage, then
16:59
I can't afford to move. So if I make a lateral move, the
17:03
cost is going to be astronomical. I'm gonna I'm playing three percent to playing
17:06
eight percent. So people just saying, but anyone who has a low interesting
17:10
mortgage would be foolish to sell their house. That's abolutely for sure. Yeah,
17:15
like, why would you do it? Right? Three percent mortgage you
17:18
can't get them. The mortgage rates are over seven percent now, So that's
17:25
artificially constricting sales. And it's a question of right, how much you need
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to move right? Right? Well? And then and then you have the
17:37
the hall owners who do not have mortgages right who paid cash on their most
17:41
spring. They don't want to move either, and that's simply because of how
17:48
Mutch prices have gone up in Florida. If you move again, take them
17:53
mortgage out out of the picture. But if I sell my house, I'm
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going to have a huge COUNTITAL again. I'm gonna pay the i RS a
18:00
big chunk of that, and my real estate taxes are gonna quadruple if I
18:04
make a lateral mood. I never even thought of that. So yeah,
18:08
because you're going to buy a new home at current market value, and when
18:12
you move in, the tax appraiser basically equalizes your rate to current market value
18:18
or below it, but still maxes go up substantially pretty much. But it
18:23
all basically comes back to the homestead laws in Florida, which are a good
18:29
thing. So homestead laws are when you when you have your primary residence in
18:33
Florida, right, they cannot raise the assessed back value more than three percent
18:40
a year. Correct. I say, you know, twenty years ago,
18:44
if a million dollars, they can only bump it up three percent a year.
18:48
But now it's worth and million dollars and I'm hanging on one point by
18:52
one point three. Some some much much, you know, a fraction of
18:56
what it's really worth if I move next door to the to the identical house.
19:00
Now, now they have portability, so you can take some of that
19:04
protection with you, but it's only half a million dollars, just like the
19:07
half get on the capital gains. But in this market here where houses are
19:11
you know, five million, ten million, twenty million dollars, that half
19:17
a million does nothing for you. So it's just it's just the cost they
19:22
to move right now. M okay, so uh so that's yet another reason.
19:27
And then the insurance insurance, yes, insurances or is bad news here.
19:33
That's a big problem here. And that one I don't really know what's
19:37
a solution. The other ones there are solutions, like the homestead situation.
19:41
I believe there's a simple thing that that the government can do that will really
19:45
help the market and help the people, which is there should be no cap
19:49
to portability right now, the thing from home to home. You will be
19:56
able to take this right And now there are even guessed if they need the
20:00
revenue, but the reality the revenue they had a twenty billion dollar surplus last
20:06
year. I mean, like you need more money and I need more money.
20:11
But not like they're going to go broke without it true. But even
20:15
besides that, I think that logic is wrong because they're not going to get
20:19
the revenue anyway, because no one's going to move under those conditions. And
20:26
when people don't love, they lose a lot more revenue than the hypothetical tremendous
20:32
tax bill that they're never going to get anyway. They lose all of the
20:37
will or somebody else will come in from New York or from one of the
20:42
failing over tax states and buy it anyway, so we don't have to do
20:48
anything. But it's not always like that. This probably is temporary phenomena,
20:52
don't you think, Well, whether timber or not depends on what they do
20:57
going forward. But me adjust that that scenario of someone wealthy coming from New
21:03
York and buying it anyway, I'll tell you why that logic doesn't work.
21:07
Someone from New York might be willing to come here and buy ten million dollars
21:11
house and pay a two percent annual real estate tax, pay two hundred thousand
21:15
dollars a year. Someone might be willing to do that, but what house
21:18
is he going to buy? For every buyer, you need to sell her,
21:22
and the guy living in that house who's paying fifty thousand a year now
21:26
is not going to sell it to the guy in New York is willing to
21:29
pay. So they're not going to get that anyway. Yeah, unless they
21:32
want to downsize for whatever reason. But downsizing doesn't make any sense because if
21:37
you op, you know you're just going to pay more in taxes, and
21:42
you wind up paying more in taxes for a house that's double or triple the
21:47
size. So why bother right right now? If they had unlimited portability,
21:55
then people who are here will move and that will make more inventory for new
22:00
money to come in, which ultimately will help actually having him. I see
22:04
your point, totally agree. So my grandparents moved here in nineteen sixty seven
22:11
or sixty eight, and I think they moved for the weather, mostly because
22:17
back then New Jersey wasn't really a high tax state. It was a low
22:21
tax state. We didn't have a state income tax in New Jersey. But
22:25
certainly the weather. But my point is, we go back to nineteen sixty
22:30
there were five million people in the state in nineteen fifty. I think there
22:37
were two million or one point seven million in twenty twenty three. It's getting
22:42
close to twenty three million. So this trend really of people fleeing is only
22:49
increasing taxes in the high tax states. No one could tell me that people
22:56
a major factor in your decision to move to Florida isn't because the high taxes,
23:04
all Right, the difference why you move to Florida as opposed to why
23:10
you moved to Alaska, which has no state income tax either it's clear,
23:15
or to North Dakota, say, which is still in the fifty the lower
23:18
forty eight. Uh, you're going to move to Florida unless you love you
23:25
have this love of snow and unlimited amounts of it. Right, Oh yeah,
23:30
And there's there's a few states for sure in the country that have favorable
23:33
attacks. But but but most of the other state sepo in that category don't
23:40
have our weather. But but the thing is affordability in the state. Even
23:47
before interest rates went up, you know, due to the pandemic and the
23:52
people fleeing more restrictive pandemic regulations controls, that number only went up. But
24:02
is there a limit to how many people can live in Florida? Heres of
24:04
so, I think that it is certainly overpopulated, at least in South Florida.
24:10
It's certainly frustrating for someone at first, someone like myself that lives here.
24:12
I moved here in the nineteen nineties from New York looking for a more
24:18
quieter, slower lifestyle, and now everything I left has followed me here.
24:23
I'm not for business, you know, there's a lot of good that came
24:29
from all the migration, but it's certainly it's certainly getting crowded here. But
24:34
price wise, you know, ices are so much harder than they used to
24:38
be here. But I don't I don't see them coming, you know,
24:42
crashing like like some people think. And I'll tell you what a few reasons.
24:48
First of all, if you compare Florida prices with the rest of the
24:52
country, it's it's still far more horrible than maybe other major cities. So
24:59
anyone kin you know from New York, delish any of these places. They've
25:03
also gone out, so well, we're still a better deal. You still
25:07
get more house here for your my name do in those places. And also
25:14
something that you have to adjust your you're thinking too, is the value of
25:18
the dollar. It's just not what it used to be. So you know,
25:22
I like to joke that a million dollars. It's just not worth a
25:25
million dollars anymore. Now it's worth it's worth a tenth set of the twenty
25:30
thirty year thirty forty years ago. Maybe forty years ago, it's worth about
25:34
ten percent perhaps, Okay, right, So take the value of your house
25:38
and take a zero zero. Yeah, and then I ask yourself as it
25:42
over, pray, Hey, and taxes are less here, for sure,
25:48
real estate taxes. When I left the Westchester County, New York, we
25:52
were blessed with the highest real estate taxes in the country. That was our
25:56
claim to fame. And they were still paying forty percent of what I paid
26:02
there a lesser house. Well maybe the house isn't really lesser, but maybe
26:07
it's twenty percent less house than I had in Westchester. So I'm paying a
26:11
fraction of what I paid there, and no staying income tax. And I
26:15
realize that that says are not considered to be low. I'm not by any
26:18
of the percent of the eye of the home. It's not it's not,
26:22
you know, it's not that low. Where we really make up for it
26:25
is the lack of income tax. Yeah, lack of income tax. And
26:29
yeah, food is pretty much the same cost as it is their guests probably
26:34
about the same. Yeah, pretty much income tax and you know, well
26:42
I was going to say lower tolls, but we're getting lots of tolls now,
26:47
so yeah, but not like me, not like twenty bucks to go
26:52
over a bridge. Actually, yeah, I remember. I feel like the
26:56
old timer. I remember when it was twenty five cents to go each way
27:00
through the Lincoln or Holland Tunnel or over the GW bridge, and now it's
27:04
it's forty times that say, so much for inflation. You know, tolls,
27:10
road tolls have gone up as fast as healthcare expenses and college educations,
27:15
you know, and both of those things also went up a lot more than
27:19
they should. Yeah, hey, so prognosis. There's got to be a
27:25
limit though, because look, go what happened last two winters ago, where
27:30
or I should say summers ago where people stayed here after the winter because they
27:36
didn't go back to lockdowns, right, you know, it really disrupted the
27:41
supply chain of your supermarkets. And the supply chain was already disrupted, but
27:45
you saw it in the stores. So the question is how much longer can
27:49
the party go on? Zev are you asking our price is going to crash.
27:55
No, I'm saying, what are you're asking? How long can more
27:57
people get motivating? Yeah? Yeah, that's what can the population go?
28:02
Can we go to thirty million like Texas? Yeah? So here's what I
28:06
think will happen. I think other other parts of Florida have yet to see
28:12
the best of it yet. There are parts of Florida that are still much
28:17
more affordable than where we are sure and still have all the benefits that we're
28:22
talking about again, Still Florida lot, it's large Texas, it's Florida weather
28:26
on places like Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville. These areas have plenty of room
28:33
to grow, and they're not as overpopulated as South Florida. I think those
28:37
will be the areas that will see huge upside in the next few years.
28:42
Okay, so new home builders they seem to have slowed down a bit here
28:48
though, where they're cutting stuff and trying to make it more affordable by cutting
28:56
out stuff and I guess adding more extras. Right. Home builders are kind
29:03
of a trickier business because of the lean time it takes from from when you
29:10
buy the land till you get approvals, till you put the shineers build the
29:14
development ten years, right, So so what they try to do is and
29:18
you know, it's all done with financing, right that it's these builders aren't
29:22
buying land for cash and building everything out of their own pocket. It's all
29:25
construction loans and all kinds of financing. So so there's a time cost of
29:30
money. So they try to and then they have to predict, you know,
29:33
what prices will be at the completion of the project. So, I
29:38
mean they've all done very good over the past few years because whatever their business
29:41
plans, well they did better, so you know, there was no surprises
29:45
to the downside. But they still need to think about what's going to be
29:48
a few years out and what's going to cost to get from here to there.
29:52
So I think they're just being extra cautious. They will. If you
29:55
couldn't make money as a home builder in Florida over the past say five years,
30:02
four or five years, then you had some serious serious issues going on
30:07
in your business plan and your quality and everything else. Even with bad quality,
30:11
you could sell anything the past few years. Maybe now it's a little
30:15
more difficult. So hey, Zev, really appreciate you coming on. How
30:19
do we find you on the web? How do we connect with you.
30:23
Sure. So Ze freedis ZFC real Estate. Our website is at ZSC dot
30:30
com and the links in the show notes this interview on Financial Survival Network dot
30:34
com. If you got a question for Zev or myself, just shoot me
30:38
an email k L at Krelutz dot com. I happen to be a realtor,
30:44
but I am nonpracticing. But hey, I can give you some advice
30:48
if you want. I'm not saying everybody should live in Florida. It's not
30:52
for everybody. I find myself. I can't retire, Zev because most of
30:57
my activities take place at night, my leisure activities. I'm not a golfer
31:03
and not much of a tennis player. I do like to walk, so
31:07
I got to keep working during the day otherwise I will have nothing to do
31:11
and I'm not sitting around watching TV or playing with the internet. You know,
31:15
Yeah, yeah, idea, Yeah, all right, Hey, thanks
31:21
a lot, and again, Zev's u r L is in these show notes
31:23
to this interview. Got a question kl at carry Lets dot com. On
31:29
the one hand, I don't want you to move down because it's getting too
31:33
crowded. On the other hand, look, everybody's entitled to pursue your happiness,
31:37
however that may be. And Zev, I'm sure you agree. When
31:41
it comes to from October to like the beginning of May, there's no place
31:48
in the country better to be than Florida. Agreed. Thanks for listening to
31:52
carry Lets's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times. For the
31:59
latest, go to Financial Survival Network dot com. Financial Survival Network now more
32:05
than ever,