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NFL Week 2 Best Bets · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: anything like this, Man, with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four, I have
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man, with bookends the slump
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached a
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my Bruins hack Man,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: March Hape? Is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: know it's it's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what day is anymore. I don't even
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: know what data is anymore. Man, back with you after
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: the worst day that I could possibly have, Back with
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: you as I always am until I die, at least
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: ohe and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did not go
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: well for me. Own five. The worst month that I've
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I don't
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: know what to even tell you about this anymore. To
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: the slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, it's towed back with you. I was
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: sharing my screen soaps back with you, but I was
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: watching myself because I like, I like to make sure
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: my audio is right. Let me actually make sure that
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: that must have been weird, right, it was like Toed
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Sception toad inception. There. This is the NFL show. All right,
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: we're good, We're good. This is the NFL Show for
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Week two. Baby a week one mixed bag, and we
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: were two and two in the NFL. I'm in a
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: loser too. We got to get better. Obviously. Week one
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: tends to be kind of difficult. Week two tends to
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: be overreaction weeks. So we'll talk about that. Charles, what's up, man,
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: You're watching the UFC? Yeah? I mean canelo? I mean
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: that's on Netflix, act or not? Yeah? It is Netflix, right,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: I don't even know, man, I think it is on
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Netflix tonight. But yeah, I haven't been paying any attention
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: to that, have not delved into the UFC enough, but
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: it seems like it is a big fight card tonight.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: I assume the main fight should be soon right like
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: the main event, because it's already passed midnight my time.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna try to get all the NFL done. Oh
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: it's boxing, Yeah, I mindy? Why Why was I think
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: in UFC ya boxing? I don't know shit, man, about fighting.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: Some I've made a few like fighting plays, but typically
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: I do not. Today we had a winning day today
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: on the show. We're four and two today. Uh, I'd
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: like it to be a little bit better than that.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: College football, I mean we're kind of off to the
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: races of college football. We're winning in college football now
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: after going three and one today. So we're three and
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: two this week. So I believe we're up in college
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: football right I think we're just above five hundred right now.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: But we're gonna We're gonna keep going. Man, Temple was
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: the loser today. You know, what can you do? Oklahoma
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: blew the mouth. Temple just didn't do anything offensively. Missouri
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: State that was a nice winner. They jumped out to
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: ten nothing lead and I'm thinking, man, can Missouri State
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: actually win this game? Outright? They made some mistakes after
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: that though, they fell behind fourteen at ten, and then
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: I had the game on. It was on CBS Sports
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: was doing all these live lookings, so I don't know
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: which channel was actually on, but they kept going to
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: that game and Missouri State they fell down fourteen to ten.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: I think in the third quarter they drove all the
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: way downfield and they think they wound up turning it
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: over on downs. They actually had. I think they first
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: had a turnover on downs that was negated by a
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: pass interference, and I'm like, Oh, they're gonna score here
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: and retake the lead. And then I think they turned
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: it over. They either turn it over or turn it
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: on downs. Turn it over on downs again, I'm like,
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: what the fuck? And I think they just never scored again.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: They lost twenty eight to ten, but they still covered
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: the plus twenty eight. Miami was basically a no sweat winner,
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: even though there was a lightning delay in that game.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: I'm sick of the lightning delays, man, I'm sick of it.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: I know it's Florida, but I mean, somebody could tell
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: me if I'm wrong. But I don't think we've seen
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: anywhere close to this amount of weather delays lightning delays
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: ever in football. It seems like it's like seven every
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: day basically, and like it just completely throws off the offense.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: So I was worried about that it went into a
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: lightning delay in the second quarter. Room, I think when
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Miami was up fourteen to three, and I'm like, what
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: if that throws off their offensive rhythm and they don't
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: get it back. I mean, I hate that shit. Although
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Miami did wind up winning and covering, they won him
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: pretty much a blowout, and then Vandy was also a
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: winner for US in an even bigger blowout. The points
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: didn't even mat man. So I always mentioned that you
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: should sprinkle the money line on these plays, man, like
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Vandy at a plus three price, like put most of
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: the bet on the spread. Yeah, but on that one,
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: you got to put like ten percent on the money line, man,
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: because it's small spread. You're basically saying that you think
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: that they're pretty likely to win the game outright, So
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: they won easy in a blow out South Carolina. They
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: are not good, man. I told you going into that game.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: They've just thrived on defensive special teams touchdowns, and that
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: is not what they were able to do in that game.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Vandy just destroyed them. And then baseball was one on one.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: The over didn't get there in the Rangers Mets not
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: even really close. But there were a lot of hits
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: in that game, dude. Like I looked late in the game.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: It was a two to two game, and they were
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: like eighteen hits in the game. How do you only
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: have four runs total off eighteen hits? I mean, seemed
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: pretty unlucky to me in some ways. Like Patrick Korbman
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: his stat line. He allowed like a lot of hits
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: and a couple of walks I think, and he somehow
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: only allowed one run I think, And I think it
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: was unearned too. I'm like, what, I don't understand it, man,
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Like he puts so many guys on base, I don't
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: really get it about whatever. And then we did get
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: the win with Cleveland barely. We scooped it on that one.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: They they were able to win, I believe three to one.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: So they covered the run line. Baby, they won run
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: line in money line. Let's get into the NFL, man
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: comin event, just start just ended all right, four and two? Yeah,
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: it's a winning day. I mean, I'll take it. I mean,
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna complain too much, but we need to
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: keep winning. Man. Baseball. Baseball has been really, really bad recently. Man,
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: I just don't get it, because usually I do pretty well.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: We'll see what happens with tomorrow's baseball, and the Red
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Sox are probably not gonna make the playoffs, so that's
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: fucking awesome too. No, absolutely not. We do not need
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: dome stadiums. No. I don't want the NFL to turn
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: into some marine up bullshit. It's supposed to be. It's
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: supposed to be like gladiatorial combat. Man, it's supposed to
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: be in the fucking elements in the weather. I've never
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this before. There was a lightning delay
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: in was it in the Wisconsin Alabama game? That might
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: have been with I don't know. There are multiple lightning delays.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: I'm like, what is It's every every single football slate
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: now it happens. Man, It's just man, it pisses me off.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: Let's get into the NFL. I'm gonna give out three
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: plays in the NFL and we'll just we're just gonna
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: run through it. Man, We're gonna run through the entire
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: board here, So let's let's let's go. Why not Patriots Dolphins.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go in order of how they are on
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: the betting board here, Dolphins down for a two and
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: a half point favorites are two point favorite. By the way,
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: I will point out that in the NFL Week two,
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: as I point out, it's overreaction week, So that means
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: that a lot of times the market and especially the
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: public will overreact to what they saw in Week one,
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: and you only have one game results, so you kind
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: of want to temper that, and you actually want to
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: more more often than not, you want to fade what
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: happened in week one. You want to go against the
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: overreaction because you're usually getting value by going against the overreaction.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: And typically UH on one teams against one and oh teams,
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: the own one teams cover more often than they don't,
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: so I'll put that out there as well. So generally,
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: if you have a matchup between a one and OH
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: team and an OH and one team straight up, I
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: think generally you want to look to the own one
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: team to cover the spread, which kind of plays into
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: that same idea, right Like a one and OH team
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: that might be an overreaction that, oh, the team looked
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: really good last week the own one team, Oh, this
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: team looked really bad. That type of thing. But anyway,
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: let's get into it. Patriots Dolphins, these teams both didn't
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: look good. Uh in Week one. The Dolphins are down
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: for two and a half point favorites, are two point
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: favorite at home. Interesting number with the oddsmaker's telling you
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: that they think the Patriots are the better team basically
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: because Miami is basically not even getting home field here
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: and the money has come in on the Patriots fifty
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: seven percent of tickets on them, fifty percent of the
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: cash coming in on the page that I don't disagree
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: with it. This is certainly not gonna be one that
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna give out a play. Oh by the way,
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: I forgot this. I forgot to put it out man,
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: the breakdown. This is the breakdown segment. Yeah, but yeah,
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: I would lean to the Patriots in this game slightly,
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: even though I know the biggest overreaction here is that
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: Miami sucks basically right like, they had a terrible game
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: against Indianapolis and it wasn't even really that misleading. I mean,
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: Indianapolis just blew them out of the building my Indianapolis Colts,
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: because I root for the Colts. The Colts, I mean,
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: maybe it was slightly skewed on the scoreboard because I
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: think the Colts were plus two and turnovers as well
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: in the game or something like that. Miami just couldn't
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: do anything right though. This Miami offense with two on whatever.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: They couldn't get anything going in that game. And I'm
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: not sure that Miami is really any good man to
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: He might not be that good. I know he had
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: some of his moments, but I'm just really not so sure,
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: I man. And then the Patriots, of course, they lost
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: to the Raiders in their home opener, which I did
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: lean to the Raiders in that when I thought the
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: Raiders would be more ready to go in that first
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: game with their new coach, I would say that. I
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: think the Patriots do have a coaching mismatch though in
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: this game against Miami, I think Mike McDaniel whatever his
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: name is from Miami, he's just he's a dumb ass dude,
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: like he is not a good coach. So I think
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: with Mike Vrabel, even though the Patriots is still trying
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: to adjust to his system whatever, I think Vrabel like
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: when he's on. I mean, it's a huge coaching mismatch there.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: Vrabel the much much better coach here, so that has
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: something to do with it, I would say as well.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Both teams looked ugly, though, even though I know Miami
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: looked uglier than the Patriots did. I'm gonna lean to
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: the Patriots, man. I actually think the Patriots they probably
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: have the better defense. I mean, Miami's defense really not good.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: I got to look at the injury report too, because
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: I know the Patriots were without one of their best
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: defensive players last week, which was Christian Gonzalez. Looks like
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: he might still be out. Yeah, he's gonna miss this
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: game too, so he is out. But I still think
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: the Patriots is still gonna win. Man. That would mean
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: my opinion in this one. What was that that I
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: saw up here? Tua has a perfect record against the Patriots,
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: So if you like the Patriots, you are basically fading that.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: I know you're taking two points, but you're basically saying
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: the Patriots will win the game if you do that.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: So Tua has never lost to the Patriots apparently, but
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: I think it'll happen in this game. I would lean
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: to the Patriots, like I said, a metal breakdown for
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: the what do you what do you mean like have
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: a you want some audio on that? You mean right
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: metal music with the graphic there. Yeah, I could think
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: about that. Yeah, Hawk Tua that was my That was
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: my team's name last year. Actually I had Tua on
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: my fantasy team as well. I tend to like I
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: began streaming quarterbacks in my main league because I think
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: whoever I had got hurt whatever, Tua was one of
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: the quarterbacks I picked up, and I changed my team's
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: name to Hawk Tou and I had I had eight
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Chan so I think it was secret eight chan man
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: before that. I think it might have been stop eight
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: Chan hate before that as well. But now my team
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: this year is Sutton on the Dock of the Bay
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: because I have Courtland Sutton and my quarter I'm not
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: streaming quarterbacks in my main league this year. I have
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes, which he did fine for me in Week one.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: I know he's probably gonna have some weeks where he
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: doesn't do well. But I don't have a whole lot
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: else to say in that Patriots Dolphins game, though, And
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: it is interesting though that was never lost to the Patriots,
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: But I mean, I don't think there's a whole lot
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: that you can really take away from that. I mean,
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: the Patriots, they've just been a bad team throughout most
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: of that span, and they're probably a little bit better
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: this year than they have been. Chris chan hate now,
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: you can hate him all you want. Jags Bengals, we
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: see a lot of line movement on this one. The
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: Bengals have dropped from a six point favorite to a
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: three point favorite. Seventy three percent ticket sixty one percent
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: of the cash. The money is coming in towards the Jaguars.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: Professional betters a lot of respect for the Jaguars in
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: both weeks so far. Jaguars, they do look like they're
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: fairly good. I mean, they got Trevor Lawrence back, they
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: got young talent on that offense around him, and they
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: looked solid in Week one. But it was a home
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: game against Caroline, and Carolina is not good. Carolina I
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: think had some turnovers in that game too that made
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: it look even worse. Although they were offense, I'm pretty
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: sure really stunk in that game. And I'm not sure
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: that the Jags defense is really that good, but it
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: is probably the better defense over Cincinnati. Cincinnati's defense is
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: one of the worst in football, I would say, Man,
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: even though they didn't look that bad last week, they
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: were against the hapless Browns that Joe Flacco was old,
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: he didn't look good, and Cincinnati still almost lost that game.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: So I could see this going multiple different ways here. Man,
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: this is not gonna be a play for me. But
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: if you take into account of the fact that Jacksonville
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: has the better defense and they're getting points, I always
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: say that that is to consider, like, that is the
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: way that I would tend to want to look in
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: a particular game. If you get the better defense getting points,
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: that is the way that I would want to look generally.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: So you get that with Jacksonville. But with Cincinnati, they
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: might actually refocus here because they didn't play well against Cleveland.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: They should have lost that game. I'm pretty sure it
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: came down to Cleveland, Like, what did they miss a
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: field goal at the end of the game or something.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: Cleveland was winning the game late in the game, and
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure Cleveland had a shot to win the
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: game at the end. Man. But Joe Flacco, I mean,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: his numbers actually didn't look too bad. I guess he
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: actually he actually out outperformed Joe Burrow. Borrow was terrible
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: in the game. I don't know what that was man
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: Borrow fourteen for twenty three. So it looks like the
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: Browns defense actually can play Borrow. Yeah, just an awful game.
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: It's really interesting how Cincinnati just continues to be awful
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: in September. They just get off to really really slow starts. Man.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: Luckily for them, they won the game, because three years
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: in a row, I think they'd lost the first game
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: of the season. Luckily for them, they got to play
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: one of the worst teams in the NFL in the
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: Browns here. Men. I know they started Joe Burrow in
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: the preseason games this year to try to get over
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: that hump and try to really focus on winning that
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: first game, and they still almost lost the game. So
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: in a way you could argue, yeah, Cincinnati's gonna refocus
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: and do better here. I'm not entirely sure about that,
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: because Cincinnati under Zach Taylor, who I don't think is
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: a good coach at all now, not the former president
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: Zachary Taylor, who'd probably be a better coach actually than
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: Zach Taylor. With him and Joe Burrow. Cincinnati has a
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: really really bad record in September. Man, they're like, I
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: don't know, I think they're three for their last ten
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: against the spread or something like that in September. It's
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: just not good and they lose a lot of the
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: games straight up to I might have that number one,
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: but it's something around that. So it's just it's bad, man,
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: I think. And that's I think most of their September
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: games with Joe Burrow. So they don't play well, and
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: the public is still on Cincinnati because I think the
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: public is just thinking when we know who Cincinnati is,
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: and there's no way that they can like play two
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: really bad games in a row, right, And people just
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: don't think the Jags are any good at all, just
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: because they haven't done anything for multiple years now. But
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence has been hurt now, you know, recently, and
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: right now he's healthy. So I could definitely see see
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville competing in this game. I would probably lean that
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: way because that is the market read there, and when
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: you know you have kind of conflicting like situational angles
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: to look at it a game, I would tend to
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: resort to what the market is doing. That is a
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: significant move that went through like key numbers there, four
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: and three and a half. You'll probably still get a
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: three and a half on Jacksonville if you do want that.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: The battle Cats, Yeah, that is who they are, man,
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars, Brown's Ravens. This is a game that almost
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: was a play for me. I like the Browns plus
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: the points in this one. As bad as that sounds,
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: I know, Joe Flacco wasn't really terrific in that game.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: He did throw two interceptions which made a QBR pretty
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: bad in that game. It was against a pretty bad
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: Bengals defense, I know. But the one thing that gives
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: me hesitation in this one is the fact that the
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: Browns almost pulled off that huge win in their home opener.
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: So they could be hung over a little bit having
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: to travel to Baltimore, They're still gonna get up for it.
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: It's always a big game in the division. Man. So
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: I still think Baltimore is in the worst spot. But
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: I have a little bit of hesitation there again because
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: I think Cleveland's in a little bit of a bad
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: spot too. Like when I first saw the spot for Baltimore,
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: I was like, oh, man, I want to fade Baltimore
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: here because it is kind of a sandwich spot. But
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: Cleveland having to bounce back up off the mat after
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: almost winning in their home opener against Cincinnati, which would
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: have been huge. They played a really tough game. They're
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: gonna have to keep that effort two games in a row.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be a little bit difficult. But I know Baltimore,
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: they are in the worst spot, man. I mean, they
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: had that total collapse against Buffalo. That was a huge
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: game for Baltimore on the road at Buffalo. Now it's
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: gonna be a shorter turnaround time for them because they
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: played that game on Sunday night, so Cleveland has a
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: little bit more time to rest here, though they do
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: have to travel. Both teams after travel because Baltimore has
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: to come home from Buffalo. Baltimore had that game, man,
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: that was a huge game, including the fact that it
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: was revenge because Buffalo beat Baltimore in that same stadium
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: in Buffalo last year and knocked them out of the playoffs.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: So it was a huge revenge spot for Baltimore too,
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: and they looked like there was no chance they were
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: going to lose that game. Baltimore pretty much dominated the game.
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: They dominated the game statistically, they had the game in hand,
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: They were winning the game forty to twenty five with
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: like four minutes left, and then what happened. They gave
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: a touchdown to Buffalo, Derek Henry fumbled at like the
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: most inopportune time possible, Buffalo scored again, and then Buffalo
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: got the ball back one more time. I think it
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: wound up winning with a field goal, because I think
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: prior to that they would They were trying for the
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: tie with a two point conversion and they missed that,
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: and then they wound up getting the game winning field
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: goal to win the game. Just epic, epic collapse by Baltimore.
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: So I think it's gonna be difficult for them to
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: get back up off the mat after that. Man, even
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: though it is their home opener, it's the Browns. I mean,
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: do you really get up for the Browns that much?
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: I don't really know, man. I think Cleveland will actually
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: probably be the more motivated team here in Baltimore. I
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: think it's a game where maybe it's just kind of
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: get in, get out. They think it's gonna be kind
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: of an easy game against Cleveland, And who do they
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: have up next? They got to play Detroit and then
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: Kansas City's. Those are two big, big games man coming
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: up next after this, so they know those two teams
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: are good. So this looks like the downspot in their schedule.
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: So I would lean to Cleveland plus the points. The
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: money is agreeing with that. It's down from twelve and
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: a half to eleven and a half. I think there
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: were some thirteen's out there for a bit. Uh, eighty
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: nine percent of tickets seventy four percent of the cash
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: on the Ravens. So the public is on the Ravens,
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: the cash is less. So so yeah, I would take
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: the points of the Browns. The total is fairly low
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: as well, in the mid forties there. So Browns, I mean,
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: they're way better defensively than offensively. I know the Ravens
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: have a really prolific offense. I know they have one
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: of the best offenses in the NFL. That is true.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: But if the Browns coming, they play defense, man, if
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: they you know, if they come, if they gizz on
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: the field, this Browns defense does have the ability to
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: slow the Ravens down a bit at the very least.
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: So and in a spot where the Ravens might not
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: be totally paying attention. That is the way that I
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: would lean a wild pick. Yeah, I mean, well that's
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: what I do. I go contrarian like almost all the
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: all the time. Yes, sir, that's almost a play for me.
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: By the way, that was really close, Like that's that's
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: one of the first ones that I'm leaving off of
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: my card here. When I first saw that Ravens spot,
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: I wanted to do it. Man, it's us a commercial
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: over here. I think I have the Minnesota and Cal
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: game on. It's one of the it's the late night
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: Degenerate special or whatever the hell is going on over
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: there at Cal. It looks like a really ugly I
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: think I picked Minnesota on some of my pick thems
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: that are ones that are just not worth money. But
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: I think they were losing last I saw, Yeah, dildo predictions.
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: I mean the first dildo that was thrown in the
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: regular season was in Chicago, So I don't know. I mean,
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: there should be some props on that was predictions. I
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: get it. We'll see where it goes from there. Man,
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: Giants Cowboys. This is kind of a weird one man,
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: where the Cowboys moved up from a three point favorite
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: to a five and a half point favorite, And I
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: will say that you do have to look at the
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: look ahead lines two, So I'm actually gonna pull those up.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: I forgot like the look ahead lines. This is kind
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: of made me think of that. So it's like, like,
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: where was the line, you know, before the first week
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: games were played, you know what I mean? So the
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: look aheadlines can tell you, like where the biggest overreactions were,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: especially in week two, if that makes sense you want
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: to Basically there are sites that like that will just
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: track them, Like you can go look like look for
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: like Week two NFL look ahead lines, and what they
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: will show you is what were the lines in these
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: games before the Week one games are played? And now
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: you can see where the lines are now, so you
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: could see where were the biggest overreactions. And there wasn't
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: really much of an overreaction in that Browns Ravens game,
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: by the way, it was still minus two and a half.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: The let me see some of the other games. The
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: Bengals were minus five and a half, which is kind of
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: where they open This Giants Cowboys game was just minus three.
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: So basically these openers that you see here are basically
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: where those numbers were so yeah, and the Patriots are
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: minus two and a half. I don't know if I
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: want to just you know, call out all the look aheads,
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: but the basically, I think the openers that you see
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: here were actually kind of the look ahead lines. So
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: I think that's what we're seeing here. So that's kind
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: of a crazy move from three to five and a half.
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: And it was all kind of just based off of
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: what we saw because I don't think that was the
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: money doing that because the Cowboys, I mean, they're very public,
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: eighty nine percent of tickets, only eighty eight percent of
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: the cash. The public is definitely coming in on the
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: Cowboys here because they looked fairly good in Week one
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: on an isolated primetime game. The Giants looked like ass
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: yet again, so the public is just coming in on
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys here. Man. I think it's more that they
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: want to fade the Giants more so than play the Cowboys.
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: But the Cowboys did look fairly good in Week one,
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: and they were a winner for me on the show.
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: They were my first winner that we had of the
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: NFL season, covering the spread there in that lightning delayed game.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: Lightning tinged game. Yeah, Minnesota is losing this game. It's
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: a close game the third quarter though, ten to seven
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: cal over here. But anyway, Yeah, so I think the
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: three was the look ahead, which is interesting. So basically,
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: just based off of Week one's results, the Cowboys are
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: now like teetering on being a six point favorite, So
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: I think the value is on the Giants. Man, as
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: ugly as that seems, that's the way I would look.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: I would fade the public again in this one. I mean,
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: more often than not, That's what I'm gonna want to do.
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, I mean, I don't know if I
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: have a whole lot to say about that. Otherwise, the Cowboys,
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: I know they have extra time off to rest, that
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: is true, but sometimes when you play a big game
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: like that was their season opener, they played the Eagles
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: really tough. Sometimes when you come off of a big
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: game like that, having that extra time off doesn't actually
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: help you that much. And the Giants, they're going to
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: be totally embarrassed, man, And that was an embarrassing performance
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: in Week one. I know, it's a second straight road
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: game that is a difficult, fairly difficult spot to be in,
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: but they were the team that look way way worse. Man. Again,
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: the line value at the very least is going to
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: be on the Giants. Here. Again, the number was going
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: to be three prior to week ones games, So which
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: is kind of crazy to think about that. The Osbegers
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: are basically saying the Cowboys are like almost even with
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: the Giants power radiers wise, and basically just giving them
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: home field. I think the Cowboys really get less than
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: three for home field though. I think they get about
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: two to two and a half for home field at most.
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: The Cowboys don't have a very good home field advantage.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: It's a very like cal in a cavernous stadium and
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: it doesn't get very loud there. I would lean to
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: the Giants, but man, I mean, if Russell Wilson is
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: back out there, I got some issues with that, man.
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't know. Man, Russell Wilson was so bad,
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: like he's they're gonna have to get rid of. They're
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: gonna have to pull him. Man, They're gonna have to
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: get Jackson Dart out there man soon. So we will
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: see there. But all that being said, I do think
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: the Giants have the better defense of the two. I
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: know I said that when they were up against the
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: Redskins too, but the Giants do have a decent defense,
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: at least a decent front seven there. The Cowboys are
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: somewhat one dimensional offense. They can't run the ball that well,
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: so the Giants might be able to kind of slow
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: that Cowboy offense down. Cowboys recent history. They also don't
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: do that well as a home favorite either, because they're
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys. They tend to be overvalued quite a bit
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: at home, so they don't do that well at covering
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: as a favorite at home, or they weren't for at
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: least a while up until I think maybe they stop
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: being overvalued a little bit when they started playing a
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: little bit worse. Yeah, the masses are asses. You want
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: to Yeah, fade the masses man. Scriptwriters have the Cowboys
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: having a good season. Well. In my preview that I
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: did with Clint, I had the Cowboys getting the last
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: playoff spot in the NFC. So we will see. But
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: I haven't watched that documentary yet. I was actually just
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: about to start it, so after I finished this video,
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: I might actually watch some of it. But we got
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: to get this done, man, We got to keep going.
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: I haven't given on any of my plays yet of course,
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: these next two games are both plays for me, the
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: Rams Titans and Bill's Jets, So be prepared. Man, Bears, Lions.
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: We have another game, but we're still in the one
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: pm Eastern slate here another interesting one. We have a
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: lot of divisional games here. I felt like there were
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: a lot last week too. Lions up from four and
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: a half to six and a half here, which again
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: I think that's not really the money doing. And I
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: think that's the overreaction from week one again, so which
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: doesn't even make sense, right because it's basically just if
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: that's the over reaction, if that was the let me
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: see if that was the opener. I think it was.
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: I think that's what we're looking at here. I think
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: we're seeing what all the like look aheads were here.
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: Like I said, I'm trying to find here. Yeah, it
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: was four and a half. I see it right here.
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: I have it, I have the documents, I have it
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: right here. So yeah, so that is crazy. So there
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: was just that big of a line move. Even though
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: the Lions looked bad against the Packers they lost to
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: the Packers. The Bears, I guess, looked so bad on
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: Monday night, blowing that game against the Vikings that the
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: line moved up to six and a half, which is crazy,
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: and it's teetering on that key number seven. Eighty three
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, only sixty nine percent of the cash
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: on the Lions, so the Lions are public. The money's
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: coming in against the Lions. Oh man. I mean, I
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: have a really hard time recommending the Bears in this
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: game though. I mean, they're on a short week coming
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: off Monday night. It was ugly though. Sometimes the teams
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: look too ugly on Monday night, even though they're on
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: a short week. Sometimes they are the way that you
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: want to look in that now. And you know the
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: Bears will get up for this. It's a divisional game
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: at Detroit. You gotta figure Detroit's gonna get up for
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: it too, though, because Detroit that was a bad game, man,
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: I mean they looked really bad on offense. Jared Goff
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: looked lost without Ben Johnson there, and I did mention
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: I didn't mention him when I talked about these picks.
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: But I'm kind of mad that I didn't give out
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: Green Bays a play because some of the professional betters
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: that I follow actually did have Green Bay as a play,
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: like they added it to their card. Green Bay pretty
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: easy win for them, but Detroit's offense was really bad
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: in that game. I think Green Bay's defense as solid
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: as we saw. Their defense was solid against slowing down
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: the Redskins. So Green Bays played some good defense against
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: two offenses. It should be pretty solid. But one thing
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: that I didn't mention when I handicapped that game last
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: week was Jared Goff is oero for nineteen in games
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: where he doesn't either have Sean McVay as his head
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: coach or Ben Johnson as his OC. When he has
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: neither of those two guys, which I don't I don't
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: think he's ever had both of them together. But when
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: he has neither of those two guys, he's never won
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: a football game. So that is insane. I mean, do
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna lose to the Bears, Not really,
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: but I mean it's something to be on the lookout for.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, that offense looked really, really bad without Ben
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: Johnson there. I know Detroit, I mean, they have a
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: lot of talents still, they shouldn't be this bad. I
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: thought they would take a little bit of a step
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: back from last year, though, losing both their offensive and
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: defensive coordinators. What's even more interesting, though, is that Ben Johnson,
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: defensive coordinator last year of the Lions. He's the head
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: coach of the Bears here now, so this is the
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: battle of the Ben Johnson. Johnson is now going to
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: be facing his former team, So that might actually give
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: Chicago a little bit of an edge if you think
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: about it. So, I know, Detroit they're gonna know what
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: Johnson did, you know as an OC. But Johnson has
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: been in that Detroit locker room Maance, so I think
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: his information is actually more valuable, Like he knows what
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: Dan Campbell does. He knows how this Detroit team operates, man,
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: So you got to think about that. I think Ben
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: Johnson might have some inside information here that the Bears
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: can actually use. Detroit will show up. I mean, it
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: was an embarrassing loss for them in Week one, even
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: though I know it was against a good Green Bay team,
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: But they're gonna show up as well. You know they're
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: gonna want to bounce back from that. And you've remember
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: the last time they played the Bears here, they almost
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: blew the game. It was that Thanksgiving game last year,
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: which I believe was actually the first time Jared Goff
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: had actually won on Thanksgiving. I think they showed that
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: in the on Netflix Quarterback documentary Goff because he was
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: talking about, you know, one of my dreams was to
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: win on Thanksgiving and eat that turkey, and I was
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: finally able to do it. I'm like, that's crazy that
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: Detroit hadn't won a Thanksgiving game with him until then,
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: because he had been there for a while and they
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: always host a Thanksgiving game. That was the first one
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: they won and they almost blew it, so they might
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: be thinking about that too. They had some bad clock
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: management at the end of that game, I think from Chicago.
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: Chicago had some bad clock made management and that kind
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: of saved Detroit in that game. So Detroit had a
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: big lead in that game they almost blew it. So
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: Detroit will still show up here. But as crazy as
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: it sounds, would I would lean to the Bears in
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: this game slightly plus the points. You know you're getting
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: lied value because the line moved multiple points off of
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: where the number was before the Week one games happened,
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: so there's no real good reason for the line to
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: move like that. And again with the Ben Johnson inside information,
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: even though the Bears are on a short week. The
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: short week is a little bit easier to overcome when
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: you're used to going to that place. Right, So the Bears,
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: they're only going for Chicago to Detroit. It's a short travel.
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: They play at Detroit every year, so they're used to
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: that travel spot. So I don't think it will be
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: as bad having that like one day fewer of prep
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: time when it's a divisional matchup and you're that familiar
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: with that travel, with that location, with that opponent, I
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: think it's you know, it is a little bit of
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: an easier spot to overcome there or the Bears being
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: on the short week. Seahawks Steelers. I can tell you
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: that a lot of professionals like the Seahawks and this
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: one plus the points, it won't be a play for me.
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: The Steelers are up from two and a half to
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: three here, going through that key number three, you might
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: be able to get three and a half on the Seahawks.
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: Public are on the Steelers. They saw Aaron Rodgers light
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: it up in Week one. Four touchdowns in Week one
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: for Aaron Rodgers, I know there are not that many
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks who have done that. He looked really good and
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: it's what's supposed to be a pretty solid Jet defense. Rogers,
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: I'm a fan, manying. I keep telling you, like, he
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: just gets all this hate just because of his anti
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: vaccine state, Like his anti vaccine positions, I should say,
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: and whatever, his anti vaccine stance is what I meant
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: to say. Whatever, He's still a good quarterback. He wasn't
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: even bad last year, man, so he lit it up.
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: So the public's on the Steelers year seventy four percent.
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: I think it's only sixty nine percent of the cash.
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: Public doesn't like what they saw out of the Seahawks.
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: I mean they see the Steelers score thirty whatever points,
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: and they see against the Jets, and they see the
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: Seahawks only score like thirteen or whatever in their game.
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: So the public's gonna be on that. They want to
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: be on that team that scored more points. They want
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: to be on the Aaron Rodgers side. Here. I can
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: understand the professional money disagreeing with that, and I'll probably
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: agree with that. I'll lean that way. It's a low
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: total too, it's all the way down to forty, so
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: it's one of the lower totals of the week. It
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: might be the lowest. Actually, of the weeks. That's a
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: pretty low NFL total. So the oddsmakers are telling you
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: they don't think the Steelers are gonna light it up
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: offensively this time. The Seahawks do have a fairly solid
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: defense and they have a defensive minded coach. Their coach
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: I forgot who it was last week. It's On McDonald,
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: I think, isn't Mike McDonald. There's Mike McDaniel. There's Mike McDonald,
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: not the guy from the Mos Mike McDonald and the
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: Doobie Brothers. Did I get that right? I don't even remember.
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: But not him. He used to be the defensive coordinator
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: of the Ravens and they had a really solid defense,
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: So he's about a defensive mindset to the Seahawks. Even
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: though I think the Seahawks offense is miserable. I don't
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: think Sam Donald is good. I don't like that offense
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: at all, but their defense could keep them in this game.
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: And I don't think the Steelers are gonna light it
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: up on offense the way that they did against the Jets.
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: I do think it's kind of a letdown spot as
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: well for the Steelers. That was a big game. I
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: was I didn't realize Aaron Rodgers would be that pumped
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: up to beat the Jets. Man. I thought Justin Fields
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: was gonna that chip on his shoulder playing against the
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: Steelers because the Steelers stopped playing him and then let
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: him go. I thought Rogers wouldn't be as pissed at
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: the Jets. But Aaron Rodgers after the game, man, he
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: confirmed that he wanted to beat the Jets. He was
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: angry about it. So I think it's a bit of
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot for the Steelers after that. Man, you
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: don't have to look at who these teams are playing
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: next week too, in some cases because you might have
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: a look ahead spot and whatever. So you know, there
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: isn't really one for the Steelers here. They played New
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: England next week, that's not really gonna be a game
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: they're gonna look ahead too. Yes, this is their home opener.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: It'll be the Aaron Rodgers home openers. So there are
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: some things that should still motivate the mirror's seattle going
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: out to the East coast. I know people talk about
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: these West Coast teams going east to play these one
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: pm games. It's like at a ten am time on
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: their biological clock. But I always say that that's not
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: actually that much of a factor. These West Coast teams
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: going east to play the one pm games, that's not
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: as bad as the East Coast teams going west to
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: play on a primetime night game. That's really where the
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: biological clock factor like fucks you. When you're playing a
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: game like late, like towards like midnight, your time. These
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: early start times are not as bad because you wake up,
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: you know, you prepare, you're ready to go right, Like
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: your energy is there, you know what I mean, Like
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: you have the energy in the morning. The problem with
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: those late late games, your energy is kind of like
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: dropping right because you've been awake for you know, a
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: lot of the day. So that's kind of the issue there,
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: I think because I keep seeing it happen so at Seattle,
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: by the way, I know they have a different they
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: have different personnel now. But Seattle has been a team
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: that's actually been a really good road team. They've been
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: particularly good at winning these East Coast games. Maybe it
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: was the Pete Carroll factor though, because Pete Carroll was
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: able to do it with Las Vegas last week against
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: the Patriots, so maybe it was him that knew like
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: how to coach his team to get those wins. But
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: Seattle generally has been good in those spots. So do
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: it that information what you will, I guess, but it
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: looks like it's gonna be a low scoring, defensive slugfest,
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: which I thought was gonna be the case of the
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: Steelers game last week. It wasn't. But yeah, I will
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: agree with the professionals that will lean to Seattle. But man,
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: do I hate Seattle's offense and I worry about Seattle
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: a little bit because they're coming off a big game
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: against the forty nine ers. Man, that was a big
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: divisional game. That was their home opener of the season,
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: and they could have won that game. I don't know
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: if you saw how that game ended, but Seattle did
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: get outplayed. So Seattle lost the game on turnovers to
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: some extent, but they got out played in the game
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: as well. San Francisco, Yeah, they outgained Seattle, I think
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: by overall hundred yards in the game. So San Francisco
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: should have won the game more easily. But San Francisco
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: lost like a bunch of their players in the game.
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: I think they lost their best offensive lineman, Trent Williams.
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: I don't know if he's coming back. We'll talk about
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: that when we talk about the San Francisco New Orleans game.
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: So he's potentially injured right now. Brock Perdy got injured.
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: He's not gonna play this week. Greg Kittle got is
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: Greg George George Kidd? Why do I think? Why do
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: we keep saying Greg? It's George? Right? George Kittle got hurt.
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: So he's the star tight end for the forty nine ers.
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's playing this week. So San Francisco
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: had a lot of their guys go down man, so
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: they were injured, and then Seattle still blew the game
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: the end. Seattle was down inside the San Francisco like
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: ten yard line I think at the end of the game.
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: And there was a play that Seattle had where one
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: of their offensive linemen got too close to Sam Donald.
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: I think that Donald went to throw the ball in
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: his arm hit his own offensive lineman. It was a
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: fumble and the forty nine Ers recovered, and that's basically
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: how they won the game, which is ridiculous. So that's
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: how they lost a game like they were gonna take
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: the lead late in the game and fumbled it over
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: amount of losing the game that way, but that's a
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: brutal loss. It's a big divisional matchup. So Seattle going
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: out on the road. And you know, if you watch
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: my show, I do talk about road non conference games
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: are the games that matter the least on your schedule
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: because the conference record is a tiebreaker when it comes
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: to the playoffs. So those teams aren't thinking about that
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: early in the season really, But road conference games are
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: the games that you can kind of afford to let
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: slip a little bit, and they're gonna be the games
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: where you're the least familiar with going to that venue. Right.
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: So Seattle, they don't play in Pittsburgh very often, so
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: they're not gonna be that familiar with going there. So
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: those are some drawbacks and again they could be in
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: a bit of a hangover spot after a big divisional
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: game in their home opener. So those are my thoughts
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: on that game. I worry a bit about the Seattle
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: spot there, but I know the professionals are on Seattle,
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: and I will generally agree with that. Dewbie Brothers Yeah,
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: and they do Blackwater right, Oh Blackwater keep on roll Lint, Yeah,
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: I mean that's that song. That song rules man. It's
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: really good for a cappella. We should have done that
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: in my a cappella groups, which I was in a
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: bunch of them, but I don't think we ever did.
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: You don't want to play the Seattle game, Yeah, I
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: mean that's a stay away forty nine or Saints to
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: finish the one PM slate. Except for the best bets
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: that I'll have at the end of the show, forty
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: nine ers, we're gonna be a seven point favorite. But
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: obviously this line has moved to three because of their injuries.
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: So I always talk about the injured player theory. Man,
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: So when you have a star player, I don't know
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: if we consider brock Purty to be a star, but
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: he is their quarterback. And when you have a player
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: like that go down, the line has to move and
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: usually it overreacts. So a lot of times you want
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: to look to play on that team, it's the injured
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: player spot. So basically, the theory is that you're getting
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: valume on the team whose player just went down just
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: that first game. Without the player, like moving forward, you
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: don't get value anymore on that team, but just that
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: first game, the line will overreact because that player is
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: out and the team will step up their game play
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: like they know they have to play like harder to
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: compensate for that player being out. So it is an
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: injured player spot for the forty nine ers, but they're
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: missing multiple players here. They're missing Kittle and they're potentially
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: missing Trent Williams. You got to see if he's gonna
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: be back, because if he's gone, their offensive line is
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: gonna suffer a bit. And we do have another issue,
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: I would say because Brock Purdy's backup. The quarterback for
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: the forty nine ers in this game is gonna be
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: Mac Jones. So man, I mean, if you want to
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: play in the injured player theory spot and you want
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: to go with the forty nine ers, you got to
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: deal with Mac Jones as your quarterback. And he sucks.
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: I mean we saw him on the Patriots, we saw
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: him on the Jags. I know those teams weren't that
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: good when he was on those teams, but man, he's
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: not good. And he's gonna be the quarterback for the
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: forty nine ers. Yere so a Blackwater. Yeah, I might
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: be able to do that on Ukulelea. I wouldn't be
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: able to get all the like different vocal parts in
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: the a cappella stuff though, like I'd just be doing
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: it solo, you know, so you don't get the like
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: back and forth like vocal harmony. It almost kind of
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: turns into like a few type of thing or whatever.
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: So the forty nine ers have dropped on minus three,
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: So yeah, debatably, there is mine value there, But seventy
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: two percent of tickets, only seventy percent of the cash
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: on the forty nine ers. So they're very public, So
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: the public is not dissuaded by betting on mac Jones.
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: I think it's because they're fading the Saints. They know
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: the Saints are the Aints this year, so the public
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: is basically saying we don't want any part of the
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: Saints here. Regardless, seventy two percent of tickets only seventy
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on San Francisco. So I'm man,
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, as ridiculous as it sounds, I might still
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: lean to the to the New Orleans side in that one,
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: even getting the fewer points there, getting the three there,
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: I might still lean that way. And the spot isn't
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: really that great for the forty nine ers as far
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: as the fact they're coming off that big divisional win
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: over Seattle, they have to travel from Seattle to New
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: Orleans and then they do have another divisional game in
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: their home opener next week against Arizona. Although I don't
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: really know if Arizona is any good at this point,
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: but it is a bit of a divisional sandwich for
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: San Francisco there New Orleans. They're obviously not good though,
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: but can they hold within this number? Maybe with San
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: Francisco having all those offensive injuries, mac Jones might not
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: be scoring a lot, so maybe the Saints will be
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: able to do it. I mean, they they almost covered
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: last week against Arizona. They just missed by about a
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: half point on the closing line. At least I think
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: the closing line was six and a half there. I
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: know the Saints aren't good, but I mean Spencer Rattler,
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: he's still probably worse than mac Jones, and he's less
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: experienced than mac Jones. But this could be a pretty ugly,
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: low scoring game. This is gonna be a real ugly
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: offensive game. I think this totals all the way down
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: to forty and a half too. I think because of
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: the forty nine ers injuries and whatever the money's coming
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: back on the over though, thinking that maybe that's a
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: little bit of an overreaction over reaction, but yeah, it
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: is looking like it could be a pretty ugly game,
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: which does me. The points are at least worth more
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: as well, So that's one of the games that I
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: like the least on the entire card here though, a
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: lot of underdogs. Yeah, well, I mean my players are
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: all gonna be underdogs. Man. I'm gonna be on all
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: home underdogs, which I like more. Man, So that's what
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: we're gonna be doing, and I believe I'm gonna be
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: going on. No, they're not all own one teams against
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: one and oh teams though, but I think two of
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: the three are. You kind of know what they are
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: already anyway though, Starting the four pm slate Panthers Cardinals,
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals have gone up from four and a half
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: to seven, although some of that movement was again from
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: the look ahead I guess was four and a half,
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: so it does look like the line move too much.
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: Based on what we saw last weekend. The Cardinals were
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: not impressive. I mean they won at New Orleans, they
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: didn't win that handle, even though they wound up covering
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: at the end. But they didn't look that good. The
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: Panthers looked even worse though. The Panthers, their offense really
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: struggled against the Jaguars. They did not look good in
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: that game. So I think the line moving to seven
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: was almost entirely because the Panthers look so bad. And
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: the public is heavily on Arizona ninety percent of tickets,
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: ninety two percent of the cash though, So it looks
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: like maybe some of the professional money might actually be
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: joining the public on Arizona here. I don't know if
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: I see it. I mean, I don't know if I
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: would lean that way myself. Arizona they have a big
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: game up next, like I told you, against San Francisco,
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: So it is kind of a look ahead spot for
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: Arizona here. It is still their home opener, not really
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: thinking they're going to lose the game, and it is Carolina.
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: They do have to go out to Arizona. It's not
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: really an easy thing for Carolina to do. It's not
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: a late night game at least though, or anything like that.
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: It's a you know, a later afternoon game. Carolina. They
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: will want to bounce back. I mean, they didn't look good,
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: but they are playing a second straight road game too,
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: so not really that easy of a spot for Carolina.
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: So maybe I'm safe if I'm gonna do Arizona and Survivor.
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: I said that I was gonna do Arizona last week
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: at Survivor, and I want to. I went with the
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: Jags last week, actually, so I went against the grain
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: with that one. I liked the line movement on the Jags.
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: I went with the Jags. But do I go against
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: Carolina again and Survivor this week and use Arizona. I might,
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: because they don't really have much future value at this point,
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: so it's a tough Survivor pick, man. I mean, the
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: obvious pick is Baltimore, but then you use Baltimore, which
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: you probably want to save Baltimore for a better spot.
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: So man, I mean, it's pretty difficult. But I really
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: think that maybe Arizona is like the only other play
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: that even really makes a whole lot of sense this week,
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: which is, you know, pretty ugly. But I mean, I
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: think that that might be the way to do it.
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure the Panthers are ours are as bad
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: as they look. I mean, Bryce Young didn't really have
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: it in the game, but he showed signs of improvement
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: last year, and he's got some young talent around him
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: on that offense. So the Panthers defense is bad though,
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: So I mean, I'll probably still slightly lean to the
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: Panthers there, just because I fad the public more often
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: than not, and we know there is probably a little
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: bit of live value there again. But man, the Cardinals
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: should be able to score against the Panthers, though their
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: defense is pretty ugly. Although interestingly, the total did drop
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: in that game though, but looks like some of the
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: money is coming back in on the over, so I
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: don't really have a feel for that total at all.
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: Broncos Colts, So this is Cole's favorite team, the Broncos,
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: against my favorite team, the Colts. The Broncos beat the
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: Colts last year, I believe in Denver. If I'm not mistaken.
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: I think I gave out a play on the Colts
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: in that game, and the Colts lost the game on turnovers. Man,
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: So it is revenge for the Colts, hero, though I
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: don't think revenge really matters much, you know, just because
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: the Colts lost to the Broncos last year in the
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: middle of the season. I don't think that really matters.
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: But the money is coming in towards the Colts, even
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: though you'd think that the public would kind of overreact
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: in the direction of the Colts, right because they slaughtered
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: Miami in Week one, But the public is still not
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: buying it. Man. The public is buying the Broncos going
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: to the playoffs last year. They're buying bo Nicks. Even
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: though the Broncos didn't really look that good offensively last week.
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: The Titans defense was pretty impressive. The Titans defense looks
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: like it's decent. Man. That was a tough spot for
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: the Titans to go on the road like that, and
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: the Titans hone in that game. The Broncos were only
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: winning that game by one late in the game, they
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: wound up scoring a touchdown to push it to eight.
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: Late in the game. Titans still covered the larger spreads
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: that were out there, but the Titans played solid defense there. Man,
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: Broncos have a solid defense as well. But the Broncos
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: have dropped from three to one here, and I think
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: some of that in this case that might actually be
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: a legitimate movement. So we know that that does mean
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: that the the opener was a three point line there basically,
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: But I think some of This is real honey coming
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: in on the Colts because he sees sixty four percent
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on the Broncos, but fifty the cash
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: coming in on the Colts. The money kind of coming
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: in on the Colts, even though again you'd think that
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: it might be a little bit an overreaction because the
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: Colts looked really good against Miami. But I did tell
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: you they dominated that game statistically, so the Colts. Maybe
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: the Colts defense is actually solid, so maybe it's not
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: just Miami. Maybe they were Miami's offense doesn't stink that much.
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: Maybe the Colts defense there is something to be said
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: there for them holding that Miami offense so far down
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: in that game. Yes, I know, the Colts did also
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: benefit from some turnovers in that game as well, and
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: the Colts I think committed some turnovers themselves in that game.
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: So they're gonna have to clean that up a little bit.
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: But the Colts, they're looking like they might not be
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: that bad with Daniel Jones a quarterback man. I mean,
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: the public is still not wanting to take Jones. I mean,
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: he's seemingly basically been written off, but he's at least
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: better than Mac Jones. He's the better of the two.
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: Jones is we're gonna be Jones and tomorrow, hopefully for
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: my purposes, because I'm probably gonna be leaning against Mac
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: Jones and towards Daniel Jones. So hopefully for my picks
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: and whatever in my pools, hopefully we get the better
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: performance out of Daniel Jones in this one. But he
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: looked fine with Indy, you know, and we wan it
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: was against a bad defense though, So of course, the
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: one issue here with India is this is a much
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: more difficult defense to face. Denver is a way better
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: defense than Miami, that's for sure. So it's a more
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: difficult game though. It is a more difficult game. But
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: I think there is there's some reason for all this
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: money to have been come for Ah. I can't even
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: talk to her. There is some reason that we're seeing
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: all this money having come in on Indy though, So
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: I will lean that way, you know me. I mean,
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna lean base it into the market reading every
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: single game here, and that's the way it is. It's
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: my autism too, So that's that game. Eagles Chiefs is
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: a pretty interesting one. Man. The line looks like it
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: flipped from the Eagles plus one and a half to
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: minus once. The Eagles are a favorite at Arrowhead, which
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: seems he's pretty crazy, mister Jones and Toad. Yeah, well yeah,
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: we're gonna We're gonna be Jones in a bit tomorrow.
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: I guess that's uh, that's he's my guy now because
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: I'm a cold fan, so I guess Jones has to
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: be my guy. It's interesting that the Eagles are favored
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: in this one, man, I mean, should they be because
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: last week saw the Eagles Chiefs. These teams aren't that
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: much different really, the Eagles versus the Chiefs, right, although
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: some of it maybe because the Chiefs do have some injuries.
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: We know Xavier Worthy got injured stupidly because he's not
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: my fantasy team and he was in my lineup last week.
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: Gets injured on the first play of the game. Basically
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: Travis Kelsey runs into him. I injured his shoulder. He's
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: listed as like doubtful I think, or maybe questionable. But
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna play. I mean, I think
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: he's gonna miss multiple more weeks, so he's not gonna
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: be there. But would Worthy being out really mean that
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: the Eagles should be a one point road favorite. I
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: don't even I don't think so. And they opened plus
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: one and a half before last week's games are played.
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: I think so the line hasn't moved that much. It's
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: still basically a pick the winner. The Eagles are public
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: sixty five percent tickets, only sixty five percent of the cash,
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: but only but we see basically the same number on
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: the tickets and cash, So I think the Eagles are public.
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: I do lean to the Chiefs in this one. Man,
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: I mean this is Super Bowl revenge for the Chiefs,
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: So I mean revenge. A lot of times it doesn't matter,
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: but you know, super Bowl revenge matters. The last time
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: we saw these two teams played each other in the
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl, and the Eagles blew out the Chiefs. Right,
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: So that's what the public is gonna remember. They're gonna
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: see what these teams did in Week one the Eagles
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: beat the Cowboys. Everybody saw that. The Chiefs looked ugly
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: in that Brazil game lost to the Chargers. The public
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: is off the Chiefs manwagon. Now, man, I think that
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: is the spot where you want to actually come in
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: on the Chiefs. I actually think the Chiefs have the
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: better defense here. At least, and you know, I tend
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: to lean towards the better defense. The Eagles, their defense
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: lost a lot of guys that they had last year, Mats,
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: I think their defense is not really as good this
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: year as it was last year. So the Chiefs, you're
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: basically getting them as a home underdog in revenge with
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: the better defense. I actually think that may be the
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: way to look here. Man. As ugly as that may sound,
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: I think that is the right lean here. The only
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: issue I have with that is that Kansas City is
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: returning from Brazil, so you know, that's a difficult travel spot.
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, these teams are not used to that. They
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: played that tough divisional game in Week one in Brazil,
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: and now they have to come back. It is their
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: home opener, so there is that. So they'll be pumped.
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're obviously gonna be pumped up for it.
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: I mean they're gonna be focused. They want Super Bowl revenge.
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: The Eagles do have, you know, an extra time off too,
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: though I know the Eagles will still be focused too.
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: It's a big game for both teams here. But the Eagles,
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: will their extra time off really help them? I'm not
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: really sure about that because they are coming off that
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: big divisional win. I mean, the Eagles and the Cowboys
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: hate each other, so coming off that game, even with
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: extra rest, I don't think the teams use that extra
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: rest properly necessarily. But again, the Eagles did good winning
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: that game, even though the public wasn't really that high
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: on Dallas, but still a pretty big divisional game there.
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: And the public's just off the Chiefs because the Chiefs
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: did not look good losing to the Chargers and the
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: public doesn't think that highly of the Chargers, and I
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: think the Chargers continue to be undervalued anyway. All of
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: that being said, I do like the Chiefs and that one,
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: that one was close to being a play for me. Actually,
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: it's just I really don't like to travel spot returning
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: from Brazil, so I worry about that quite a bit.
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: Oh the Count and Crows song, Yeah, yeah, I'm not Yeah.
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: I don't remember too much about the Count and Crows,
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: even though I grew up through like the nineties whatever.
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: They were not my thing. Really, they were not my jam.
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: But I I do remember that song. Though we got
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: Sunday Night Falcons Vikings. This is an interesting game because
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: this is this is the College Football National Championship rematch.
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: So how much does that matter, I don't know. But
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: this is JJ McCarthy against Michael Pennix junior. And if
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: you remember, that was the quarterback matchup in the College
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: Football National Championship two years ago when it was Michigan
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: against Washington and these were the two quarterbacks. So I
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: was insane is that these two quarterbacks get to play
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: each other. McCarthy for the Vikings at home in his
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: home opener against Michael Pennix on the road. Pennix, he
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: only played one game on the road so far. He's
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: played I believe four NFL games now, but only one
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: of them has been on the road, which was last year,
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: and he played okay in the game. It was against Washington,
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: and if you remember, I had a play on the
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: Falcons in that game, and the Falcons were an underdog
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: on the road and they took it into overtime and
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: they still didn't cover. I think there were like a
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: four and a half point underdog and they lost by
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: six in overtime. I was very pissed about that. One
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: should have been a win for me. He should have
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: been a cover for me. And that was so Penix
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: did fine in that game, but will Pennix be able
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: to do well against this Vikings defense? Though, I don't know, man,
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: this is so Vikings defense. But the money is coming
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: in towards the Falcons. The Vikings are now for four
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: and a half to three here, so the money has
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: moved towards the Falcons. Fifty eight percent of tickets, seventy
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: six percent of the cash coming in on Atlanta. Interesting.
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, the Vikings have the better defense, but they
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: are laying points. The Falcons probably have the better offense.
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: The Vikings, I mean, they're still gonna be going through
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: some growing pains there with McCarthy there, I know they
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: have some. He definitely has a strong supporting cast around him, though,
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: though Addison or whatever his name is. Is it Addison
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: or Allison? I always forget which one it is. He's
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: still out. He's on my fantasy team too, waiting for
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: him to come back for suspension. Falcons, I think do
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: have the more talented offense, though Pennix has a little
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: bit more experienced than McCarthy at least, and he's got
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: you know, Bijon Robinson. He's one of the best running
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: backs in the game. Really and Drake London's really really
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: good as well, very very good wide receiver and big
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson big, you know, not bigger, but better for
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: the Vikings sil Falcons, they got some good offensive weapons. Man,
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: money is coming in that way. So maybe also thinking
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: that that Pennix will get his revenge against McCarthy, and
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: I mean I think he will have that somewhere in
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: his mind there. Hey, like I get to face McCarthy again,
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: this time on the NFL stage, and I get to
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: get revenge against them. It's an interesting scenario, man, in Minnesota.
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, some of the reason why Minnesota is being
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: faded by the money here is probably because they're coming
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: off the Monday night game. So everybody saw that they
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: made a huge comeback. JJ McCarthy looked pretty good in
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: the game, so everybody saw that. And now they're traveling
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: on a short week. I know, it's home, you know,
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: they get to play their home opener here, but short week.
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: Like if everybody the whole nation, you know, basically saw
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: you play well on Monday Night, then you go on
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: a short week, that isn't the easiest spot. So that's
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: probably part of the reason why the money is coming
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: out in Atlanta. Although Atlanta they were one of my
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: picks last week. They were in my money, like pick
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: five for the NFL, and they lost the game. They
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: should have won that game, man, they they weren't in
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: that game. They had the lead late in the game.
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: They wound up blowing the lead really late in the game.
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: Then they had the chance at the game time field
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: goal at the end and Coup blew it from forty
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: four yards out. Coup might not be good anymore, man.
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Ku is not coo with me anymore. Man,
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: So yeah, we're no longer cooing for Coup. That sucked.
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: They could have sent it into overtime. It looked like
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: the Falcons are gonna win that game. That was a
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: big divisional matchup for the Falcons. Mental though it was
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: revenge for Tampa because the Falcons actually, I believe beat
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: Tampa both times they played them last year and still
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: didn't win the division. And I think those were both
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: with Kirk Cousins, which I don't even know if Kirk
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: Cousins is still on the Falcons. I said that they
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: had kept him, but I don't even know if he's
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: actually still there because I heard somebody say that they
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: cut him. I don't know if that happened or not,
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: but it is Panics's team now. But the Falcons are
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: still coming up that tough divisional game that was a
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: really tough loss, and they are having to go on
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: the road to a place they are not too familiar with,
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: playing in Minnesota. So that's not gonna be a play
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: for me. But the money is saying Falcons plus the
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: points there. I mean, generally I will lean towards fading
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: a team that won on Monday night more often than not,
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: so potentially we'd be looking in that direction. But I
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: think it's it's a better spot to fade a team
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: that played on Monday night if they're gonna play, like
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: in the middle of the afternoon on Sunday in a
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: game that isn't like a huge game like this is
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: another primetime game, So it's a game that the Vikings
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: have to get up for again, you know what I mean.
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: So it's not a game that they might like just overlook.
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: Also on a short week, you know, so they should
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: still get up for and at least they get a
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: little bit of extra rest than they would if they
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: were playing in the afternoon. Right because they get to
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: at least wait to play at night. So there is
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: that too. Yeah, Yumway Cuckoo is his name now he
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: is insane. And then we got two Monday night games,
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: the Monday night doubleheader. I'm gonna have a play on
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: the second one, on the late night one, which I
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: like quite a bit. The first game I'm not gonna do.
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: But we do have Buccaneers at Texans. Texas are off
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: from two to two and a half with juice. The
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: money's coming into the Texans. I agree with it. Percent
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: of tickets on Tampa fifty seven percent of the cash
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: coming on the Texans. Public doesn't want anything to do
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: with the Texans at this point. Man. They like Baker Mayfield.
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: They know the Buccaneers have been in the playoffs multiple
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: years in a row. They liked that Bucks Bucks offense
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: with you know, Mike Evans. And I think Godwin might
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: still be out, so you got to keep that in mind.
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: Chris Godwin has been hurt. I think he's gonna miss
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: a bunch of weeks. Actually, I think he might be
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: out until like the middle of the season. So that's
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: something to keep in mind there for Tampa Bay. But
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: they have other offensive weapons. Of course, they have a
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: decent rushing attack as well. The public does not want
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: anything to do with this Texans offense. And I know
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: I gave out a play in the Texans last week
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: because I like their defense and their offense was not
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: very good. I mean, they did score three times and
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: I think they only scored field goals in the game,
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: which was not good. Texas are lacking right now. It
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: looks like they're gonna be without mixing the running back
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: and Tank Dell, one of their best wide receivers for
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: maybe the majority of the season, if not the full season.
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: That would really suck down missing multiple seasons in a row.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: That's insane. I had him on my fantasy team last
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: year when he got hurt. By the way, Texas do
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: have Christian Kirk and I forget who else. They picked
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: him one other wide receiver as well, and those guys
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: are both hurt as well, so they're basically Nicocollins and company.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: I don't even know who else they have there. So
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: the Texans have a depleted offense, but their defense is good.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: And you know me, I tend to lean towards the
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: team with the better defense, and that is the Texans,
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: although they are laying points here. The Buccaneers defense, I
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: don't think he is as good and the Buccaneers secondary
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: isn't that good. So maybe the Texas with CJ. Stroud there,
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: even though he doesn't have that many weapons with him,
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: maybe they will be able to take advantage of a
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: Buccaneers defense that isn't really that good. Although I'm wasn't
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: really sold on the Rams defense last week either, and
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: the Texans couldn't really do that much against them. But
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: money's coming in on the Texans. I'll lean to the
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: Texas there. I mean, the Buccaneers are playing a non
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: conference road game, and you remember what I just said
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: about non conference road games, Those are the games that
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: mean the least on your schedules. Sometimes those teams don't
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: show up, although I think they will show up because
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: it is Monday night, so you're gonna show up from
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: Monday night game typically. But it is a second straight
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: road game for Tampa as well, so makes it a
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: more difficult spot coming off a big divisional win. It
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: was double revenge as well in that divisional win Houston.
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: They are traveling back from the Pacific coast, but this
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: is their home opener. You know, they didn't look good
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: in week one, so maybe a bit of an overreaction
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: from the public to what we saw in week one
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: as well. There and it's one of those games it's
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: a one and oh team and gets an OH on
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: one team. Remember, So let's actually try to run down
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: which which of these games are one and oh versus
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: oh and one? Trying to figure out so Ravens Browns
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: is one of them or no, Raven's lost? What am
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: I saying? What the fuck am I saying? There aren't
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: that many? Actually, Rams Titans is won. The Rams are
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: one and oh, Titans are own one. Bill's Jets is one.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: The Bills are want to know the Jets are own one.
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: Steelers Seahawks is one. Stealers of want to know Seahawks
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: are owing one. Niner Saints, Niners that want to know
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: Saints are own one. Uh, Panthers Cardinals is one. Panthers
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: owned one. Cardinals want to know. Eagles Chiefs. Eagles will
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: want to know Chiefs are own one. Falcons Vikings is one.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: Vikings are want to know Falcons are only one. So
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: and I lead to all the own one teams, go
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: figure all the on one teams are the are the
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: market reads and those and then also Texans own one
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: against Tampa Bay. I want to know. I think I
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: got all that right. And then we're gonna talk about
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: the bets that we have. We're ready for this. It's
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: the best bets segment now, man, and then we'll get
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: out here. Won't be too long on a video. Let's
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: do it, man. I don't know if you guys are
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: gonna love any of these, to be honest, the first
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: one up is gonna be the Tennessee Titans. You knew
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: this was coming home underdogs, being home underdogs are the team.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: I love these home underdogs and this is one of
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: the on one teams against the one and oh team.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: We're gonna take the ten to see Titans plus five
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: and a half. This is one of the few lines
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: that actually hasn't moved at all, so interesting that basically
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: is just sitting there in no man's land. Public is
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: coming in on the Rams seventy three percent of tickets
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: on the Rams, only fifty of the cash though, so
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: the money is coming in on the Titans. I know
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: we do have to worry about cam Ward. He wasn't
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: very good against Denver in Week one. Denver's a good defense.
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: The Rams defense is probably not as good as Denver's is,
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: so maybe Ward gets a little bit of a reprieve there.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: It is Ward's home opener here though, man, So it's
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: gonna be a big game for the Titans. They're getting
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: a ton of points, and the Rams offense really really
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: struggled last week. Man. I mean, I know it was
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: a good defense with Houston. With the Titans, they look
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: like they have a pretty good defense too. Man, We're
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: getting maybe the better defense and the Titans getting points
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: at home. That's something I'm always gonna look for as well.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: Titans defense held them in that game against Denver, And
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: I know it's a little bit of a tough spot
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: to travel back out of elevation when the Titans did
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: play tough as like the biggest underdog of the week
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: last week. A lot of times I won't want to
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: play a team that, you know, like almost took like
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: a better team to their limit. But I don't know
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: if the Titans were like that up Like, it wasn't
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: like a huge game necessarily playing Denver. Really it was
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: Kim Ward's first game. But I think the Titans they're
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: gonna want to show up for this home opener. Man,
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: They're not gonna overlook the Rams. And for the Rams, again,
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: I will point out this is an out of conference
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: road game, so those are the games that mean the
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: least on your schedule. The Rams won their home opener.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: I know that wasn't a big game for them, necessarily
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: against Houston, but they won the home opener. I'm not
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: sold on the Rams offense. And I told you in
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: that game Matthew Stafford as a bad back dude, So
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know how good Matthew Stafford really is right now.
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: And he didn't play in preseasons. So the Sean McVay
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: teams sometimes they start slow because they don't play their
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: starters in preseason. And who do the Rams play next?
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: By the way, this is a major major look I
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: had spot for the Rams. They play the Philadelphia Eagles
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: in Philadelphia next. They might be looking right past Tennessee
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: to Philadelphia because that is a huge game that is
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: playoff revenge and it's at the scene of the crime.
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: If you remember, the Rams got knocked out of the
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: playoffs last year by the Eagles at Philadelphia, So I
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna want to show off for that, and
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: I think it's actually double revenge as well, because they
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: think Philly went to the Rams last year and blew
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: them out in LA two, if I'm not mistaken, in
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: a very high scoring game where I think I was
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: on the Rams in that game at the Rams and
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: I lost on that one. And then I think I
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: was on Philadelphia in the playoff game in Philadelphia didn't cover,
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: I think, so, I don't know they did. I think
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: they did. I think they did right, they barely covered
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: or maybe it was a push, I don't remember whatever
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: it was. But that is a huge game. You know
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: that the Rams have that thing circled man playoff revenge.
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: It's one of the only revenge scenarios that really matters
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: a lot in the NFL, playing not only the team
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: that ended your season, but the Super Bowl champions. Yeah,
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: the Rams, I think they're gonna look past Tennessee. Man.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: Tennessee will show up. I think their defense can hold
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: them in this game. This is a low total. It's
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: all the way down for forty five and a half
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: to forty one and a half. The money. It looks
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: like it's coming pretty significantly on the under, so expecting
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: a low scoring game here, not a lot of offense,
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: and you know, when that's the case, points matter more
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: as well, So we will go with the Titans plus
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: the points. There. You know my NFL players are super ugly, man,
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: Oh thank you? Yeah, the best bets, that's the they.
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: I'll show it one more time. Yeah, he the toad
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: just looks cool there, like, check it out, baby, these
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: are gonna be all my losers. Next up, this one
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: you might hate even more. By the way, I don't
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: know if this number is still around, but it's gonna
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: be the Jets plus seven. We get a home opener,
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: we get a not a home opener, but a home underdog.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: Excuse me, that is actually staying at home this week.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you can still get the seven,
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: but I still might do it at six six and
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: a half. I think there's still six and a half's
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: out there right now. The seven's got chewed up, man,
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: But I I gotta like just throw out these plays
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: on my midweek shows. Man, I should just be like, hey,
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: I think this line is gonna drop, So go out
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: and get the Jets plus seven. There's a chance you
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: might be able to get the seven, Like there's no
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: reason to play it right now if there's no seven
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: out there, because come tomorrow, you know the public's on
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: the Bills. We're fading the Bills here. Yeah, I know,
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: this doesn't seem like a good idea. I get it.
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: Seventy seven percent of tickets around the Bills, only sixty
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: five percent of the cash, so the bills very public.
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: They've dropped from eight to six through that very key
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: number seven. So that is a pretty significant line move
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: when it goes through a key number against the public action,
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: and you know that that was an actual move that
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: was not an overreaction, because the overreaction would move the
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: number towards like the number would move towards the Bills
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: right after seeing what they did last week. So this
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: is a real legit move on the Jets. In my opinion,
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: You're getting an own one team as a big home underdog.
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: This is a big divisional game for the Jets. I
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: think it matters more to the Jets than it does
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: to the Bills. The Bills are on a short week.
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: I think they're in a letdown spot again. They're coming
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: off that absurd comeback against Baltimore Man on Sunday night,
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: monster monster win for Buffalo. I don't know. I still
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: don't know how they came back and they won that game.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: And in addition to them being in a big letdown
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: spot potentially after that huge win on primetime. Again, as
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: I told you, they got outplayed in this game. Actually
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: maybe' well maybe I'm wrong. They got out play for
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: most of the game. But the Bills did actually wind
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: up out caning Baltimore. I didn't think they did, but
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: I guess Baltimore did wind up getting out game. Baltimore
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: did turn the ball over, Baltimore did have more penalties, whatever,
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: so the Bills did actually beat them. But whatever, it
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: still stands what I said still stands that it's a
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: huge letdown spot for Buffalo. The Jets tend to always
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: play Buffalo pretty tough at home. Man last year, Buffalo
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: only won the game by three at the Jets, and
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: I was pissed because I had the Jets. I'm pretty
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: sure I had the Jets plus two and a half
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: in that game, or maybe it was closer to a
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: pick them, but I was pissed in that game and
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: I had the Jets in that game. The Jets were
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: like barely letting me down every single week.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: I had the Jets as plays like maybe four times
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: when they just barely missed the number. And you know,
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers doing that to me, one of my favorite guys.
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: I'm like, come on, man, but think about what I
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: just said too. The Jets were like almost a pick
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: them I think in that game against Buffalo last year,
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: and now they're a six six and a half seven
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: point underdog year. Why, like, how different are these teams
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: from last year. I know the Jets don't have Aaron
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: Rodgers anymore. Maybe it's a downgrade from him to Justin Fields. Okay, fine,
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: but I mean is that significant enough to have this
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: line move six seven points from where it was last year?
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, Buffalo has a similar, similar team, although I
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: think James Cook didn't play in that game so he
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: was hurt, but I think he I mean, he's back now.
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: But I don't know how significant that really is, the
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: fact that Buffalo was missing there running back Buffalo, it
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: still all just kind of runs through Josh Allen. So
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, I just don't see. I don't know why
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: the line has changed that much, man. I think it's
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: just based off of what we saw in week one,
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: and then of course the Jets. Yes, it was a
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: big game against the Steelers. It was both quarterbacks playing
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: against their X teams Rogers, you know, and Justin Fields.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: But I think it was a misleading final result, even
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: though Rodgers did get the win there, the Jets are
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: winning this game, dude, from a lot of it. The
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: Jets had a twenty six to seventeen lead going into
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: the fourth quarter, so a little bit misleading in my opinion. There.
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: The Jets out gained Pittsburgh three ninety four to two
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: seventy one, So that Jet offense surprisingly actually moved the
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: ball well against the Pittsburgh defense. It's supposed to be
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: pretty good. The Jets Devens actually did pretty well. I know,
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers, it was all about Aaron Rodgers four touchdowns whatever.
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh didn't gain a lot of yards, only two hundred
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: and seventy one. So the Jets totally outplayed Pittsburgh statistically
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: and they wound up losing the game. They were minus
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: one in turnovers, they had more first downs, they had
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: more time of possession, so yeah, I mean they were
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: better on third down as well. Jets got penalized more.
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: But yeah, the Jets. I think they're flying a little
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: bit under the radar, and I think they're better than
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: people think. You're getting all these points again, and I
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: think you're getting the better defense with the Jets. The
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: Bills have kind of improved their defense a bit, but
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: you see that defense for the Bills give up a
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: lot of points sometimes against some of the better offenses.
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: I know the Jets are not one of the better offenses,
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: but still they can put up some points against Buffalo's defense.
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: I think Jets, I think are the better defense at home.
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: So as ugly as it is, will go Jets plus seven.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: You could take the plus six six and a half.
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: Like I said, I would wait though, see if the
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: seven comes back at some point, because they will be
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: the anti public side there. Oh thank you sir. That's
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: a yeah. The rizzed out toad and the graphic there.
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: You didn't bet on the fight, Canelo, What were the
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: odds on it? You bet on the Bills. You better
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: have gotten the better number. At least you better have
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: laid like six or six and a half with that.
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I like the Jets quite a bit. Plus
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: the points in that one. I think the Jets have
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: a decent chance to actually win that game outright. To
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: be honest, I think that game is gonna go to
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: the wire. I think it's gonna be close, and I
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: think it'll be lower scoring. So I would actually say
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: an under. Let's look at what is the total doing
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: in this game, because I would say an under could
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: potentially be worth a look here. The total is very public.
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: Although it did go up from forty four and a
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: half to forty seven and a half, some of that
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: might have been overreacting, like, let me see, the total
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: in this game was going to be I'm looking at
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: the look ahead the line right now? Where is it? Yeah,
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: it was forty four and a half, so that was
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: the look ahead. So why did the line on the
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: total go up to forty seven and a half? The
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: public is on at eighty eight percent of tickets ninety
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: five percent of the cash on the over. But both
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: teams played such ridiculous high scoring games last week. I
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: think there might be some value playing that game under too. Again,
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: I mean those games are just so high scoring last week.
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: So yeah, and then the Bills. By the way, I
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: don't think it's really a look ahead. I should have
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: mentioned the Bills. You play the Dolphins after this, So
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know if they're gonna pay
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: more attention to Miami than to the Jets. I mean,
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: Miami looked like ass so maybe not. But so I
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: don't think it's a look ahead, but I do think
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: it is a major letdown spot at the very least.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: What were the odds on Canelo? I'm gonna look right now. Actually,
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: and you said you bet on him? I don't even know.
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: But he's the guy that has all the name recognition, right,
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: So he was a minus two under favor but it
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: got bet all the way down to minus one fifty.
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: It looks like so, uh yeah, I don't know, man, money,
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: it looks like the money came in on Crawford. Is
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: that who he's up against? So and when you see that,
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: you see line movement going against the guy who's the
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: name that everybody knows. Everybody knows the name Canelo Alvarez.
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: Everybody knows him. So when you see the line move
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: against him like that, that's some significant movement. So the
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: professional betters, I think we're betting on Crawford. I think
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: it's his name there, So I can tell you that much.
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: I'll just by reading some of the reports there about
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: what happened with the betting market. Maybe I should just
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: bet fights, because I could just bet like what the
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: market is doing. But you might not be able to
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: win doing that because once you see the market having
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: moved too much, if you chase, you know, and you
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: get the worst number every time, you're not getting the
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: best value that you could have. Let's finish this off, man,
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: and this is my favorite of the week. Is my
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: last bet of the week here. My favorite one is
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raiders plus three and a half. It
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: might be at three right now, three to three and
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: a half. Either way, you could do it. I think
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: it is three and a half out there right now
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: if you don't get it now. This is a Monday
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: night game, so you could probably get it on Monday
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: if you don't see it now. I love the idea
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: of fading the Chargers in the spot. Man. I think
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: it's a terrible, terrible spot for the Chargers. This is
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: this is like a mega, mega sandwich spot for the Chargers.
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: Like you thought, maybe the Evens are in a sandwich
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: spot because they're coming up that huge game against the
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: Bills and they got the lines next, wait till you
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: see this Chargers spot. And it's even worse because they
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: have travel from Brazil. Sixty three percent of tickets, only
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: fifty three percent of cashits. I don't know if we
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: call that a Brazilian sandwich. But what would a Brazilian
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: sandwich be? I know, I only I mostly just know
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: Brazilian steak where they just feed you meat off of
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: swords until you tell them that you can't take anymore,
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: which I do like that a concept. But there, I'm
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: sure there are some Brazilian sandwiches too, which yeah, I mean,
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: I've known a Brazilian woman as well, so in college
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: she would probably be pissed at me for not knowing
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: Brazilian cuisine better after spending quite a while hanging out
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: with her. Chargers up from three to three and a half,
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: but not a significant move there, and some of that
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: was I think from the look ahead. Again, their public
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: sixty three percent of tickets, only fifty three percent of
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: the cash. The money looks like it is someone coming
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: in on the over, but I'm not really too concerned
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: with that because we're just fading the spot here, man,
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: here you go, here's the spot for the Chargers. I
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: know this is the one that I have that's a
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: one on one team won an O team against a
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: one and OH team. I know. So the other two
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: that I give out our own one teams against one
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: and OH teams. But this Chargers spot is horrendous. Man.
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: They just got double revenge against Kansas City. They beat
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: Kansas City absolutely monster divisional win there, man on that
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: primetime game, isolated game. Everybody was watching it in Brazil.
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: I think it was a Friday night game. Huge win.
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: So yes, I know they have extra time off. They
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: get an extra day, get an extra two days, I
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: guess because they played on Friday. But I still don't
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: think that's gonna help them in when you're riding that high,
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: that big win like that, I think the extra time
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: off might actually hurt you. And they're not used to
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: playing in Brazil. I mean, those teams didn't play in
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: Brazil prior to this year, so they're not used to that. Man,
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: they're coming off that win having to do unfamiliar t
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: I know this location isn't unfamiliar to them. They have
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: to play at Vegas every year, but traveling back from Brazil,
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: they're not used to that. Man having to play the
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: very next week without a bye, and then who do
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: they have up next on a short week? No less,
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: it looks like because I think they're playing wait, oh yeah,
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: it's on a sure weekend because they're playing Monday night
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: this week. That's right, this is a Monday night game.
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: So on Sunday on a sure week they gotta play Denver.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: That's a huge divisional matchup. Man. So if if they're
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: gonna I know, these are all divisional games, but if
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: they're gonna overlook one team in their division, who's it
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: gonna be. I mean, let's be real about it. They're
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: gonna overlook the Raiders. If they're gonna overlook one of
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: these teams, man, Denver basically seems to be their competition
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: as far as which one of these teams, because basically,
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: the you know, the narrative coming into the season is
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: Kansas City is gonna take a step back. I told
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: you they would. I liked their team, their season win
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: total under and then it's basically which team is gonna
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: rise up and take the division? And I said it
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: was gonna be the Chargers. Some people think it's gonna
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: be I don't. I think bo Nicks might be in
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a sophomore slump, so I tend
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: the slump continues. So I tend to think that it's
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: gonna be the Chargers. Second year under Horrible, they got
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: more experience there. I tend to think it'll be them,
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: And I like the way the Chargers play, even though
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: I know I'm fading them here, But yeah, so I
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna be looking ahead to Denver, man because
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: basically that's that battle, Like which team is gonna replace
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs. Nobody's saying it's gonna be the Raiders. Nobody's
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: gonna care that the Raiders beat the Patriots. Nobody's buying
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: into the Patriots. Yet everybody's gonna see that the Chargers
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: beat Kansas City and put way more weight on that win, Right,
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: everybody's gonna put way more stock into that win than
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: what the Raiders did. So yeah, huge wins. So everybody's
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: gonna be talking about Denver versus the Chargers. That's gonna
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: be the battle for the division. They might look right
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: past Vegas. Here in Vegas they have some continuity at
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: least because they got Pete Carroll and Gino Smith and
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: they were together, not sexually not homosexually. They were together
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: in maybe they were on don't know, in Seattle, so
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: they at least kind of know each other there and
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: that helped them out in that Week one game. They
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: look decent against the Patriots, but I think they're still
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: flying under the raidar because again, nobody's really gonna care
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: that they beat the Patriots. But they did. As far
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: as like the stats. They outstated the Patriots in the game.
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: They had more yardage, you know, more first downs, the
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: time possession was very close. It was a fairly close game,
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: but the Raiders got the win as the underdog. And
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be their home opener, man, which I
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: think is gonna be a bigger thing. I think the
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: crowd's gonna get nuts. Man. It's Vegas. It's a betting town.
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: They like having a football team there. Now there's some
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: excitement there because they got Geno there. Now he's a
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: decent quarterback with some decent experience behind him. They got
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: Pete Carroll. He's could still considered to be a really
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: really good coach there. So they're gonna be up for it. Man.
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be a coaching battle two really good coaches.
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: Yere and as I was about to say, the Chargers,
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: the way they play football, they don't win by margin
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: a lot of times. Man. I know, they just beat
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: Kansas City by six, but they play a lot of
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: low scoring games. That's the way that they play. They
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: run the football a lot, they possess the ball. They
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: play that possession style, so they play a lot of
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: lower scoring games. They play good defense. They also make
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: their defense look better than it is because they possess
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: the ball for so long that they keep their defense fresh,
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: keep them off the field. But that's not really a
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: great recipe to cover as a road favorite, man, So
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: we're getting the Vegas as a home underdog here. I
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: think the spot is just terrible for the Chargers here.
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: I know Vegas is having to fly back from the
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: East Coast, but I don't think that's a real big issue.
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is their home opener again. I mean
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: this is where their home is, so they'll have already
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: gone back home, They'll have adjusted their biological clocks already.
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, they all live out there, so it's not
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: unfamiliar for them and be playing a late night game
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: in the Pacific time zone. So that's gonna be it man,
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be on ESPN, the ESPN Monday Night doubleheader,
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: will take the Raiders get back to that silver and gold,
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: the days of the glory days. Man, the Al Davis.
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: Now they have Mark Davis there, Mack Davis, who is
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: one of the weirdest looking people ever. I mean, Al
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: Davis is pretty fucking ugly at least two years old.
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: But Mark Davis doesn't even look like Al Davis. He
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: looks like what does he even look like? He looks
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: like a chucky doll that's been like over inflated or something.
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: I don't even know. But that's gonna do it.
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: I'll let you guys go. I'll let myself go not
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: getting fat. But I'm gonna probably start watching some of
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: that Cowboys documentary and yeah, and then hopefully I get
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: some sleep because I gotta be back tomorrow because we've
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: gotta talk about baseball in the morning, and we gotta
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: I think we gotta talk about w NBA too. So
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: Crawford is good, Yeah, he's I think he's a good fight.
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: I don't really know who he is. But a steak sandwich,
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: a Brazilian steak sandwich, sleepless in Seattle, Boston Toad. I
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: can try to turn him on a little bit, turn
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: myself on who that's hot? Yeah. So WNBA. By the way,
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: I did a very short WNBA playoff bracket special earlier tonight.
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: If you missed that, everybody missed it. Nobody was in
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: the chat. I think Nate was so shout out to Nate.
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know where he is right now, but he
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: commented on something right as right as I'd hit the
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: end stream button, I'm like, ah, fuck, I didn't get
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: to say hi to Nate. But yeah, you can go
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: check that out. It's a very short video. There's not
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: a whole lot to say about the WNBA, but I
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: filled out my bracket. I might not have the champion
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: that you might think because I like to go against
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: the grain, baby, So you can go check that out.
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: But the WNBA playoffs start tomorrow, so I gotta cover
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: that on the morning show, and I gotta cover baseball,
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: and we gotta fucking improve our baseball. Man, it's we're
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: gonna have a losing season. I mean, there's no way
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: to really get it back at this point. So football
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: needs to get better as well, and that would be
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 1: the way that we get it back. We're decent in
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: football today at least. Oh, thank you, sir. Yeah, I've
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: heard it's a good documentary the Cowboys once, so I'm
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: gonna keep doing that. You were burning leaves, setting fire
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: to them out in the leaf the leaf pile outside.
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: All right, man, thanks Charles, you've been the only one
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: hanging out with me tonight on my weekly NFL show.
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: Usually get more. It seems like I get more people
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: for the college football show. I guess more people want
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: to do it Friday night. That's Saturday night. I don't know.
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: It's just the way that it is. But I'll be
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: back tomorrow. We got to start getting some wins again. Man,
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: let's turn this entire thing around. Or today was the
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: DSA's start, so let's keep going. It's gonna do it
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: for now. Peace,