Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 11

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The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 11 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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1:21
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
1:25
Speaker 1: I'm Chad Moment, Chief content Officer of the Action Network.
1:28
Speaker 1: I am joining as I am for every episode my
1:33
Speaker 1: favorite two hours of the week when I get to
1:37
Speaker 1: be with my bff, my companion, my compadre, professional better
1:43
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter. Hello. Saw him in Hello Chad. Here we
1:48
Speaker 1: are buddy. Week eleven. We're getting through it. Man. I
1:51
Speaker 1: felt like I was a little bit worried about what
1:53
Speaker 1: the recording was going to be like the other day,
1:55
Speaker 1: because you know, we didn't have a great week and
1:59
Speaker 1: you wanted to buy and I wasn't in the headspace
2:01
Speaker 1: for it. And now we're come back and we're gonna
2:03
Speaker 1: turn around. We're gonna have a great week. We've moved on.
2:06
Speaker 1: We totally moved on. That's you know what. Not only
2:08
Speaker 1: are you a good friend, you're a professional. We move on.
2:13
Speaker 1: So to remind people today, we will do our big
2:16
Speaker 1: balls better the week, we will finalize the games that
2:19
Speaker 1: we love the most. For our final five reminder. Following
2:22
Speaker 1: the award winning Action Network app see where we land
2:25
Speaker 1: officially by noon on Sunday, see what we end up loving.
2:30
Speaker 1: Simon and I will talk on Sunday after we record
2:33
Speaker 1: Convince Me, which you can watch in the Action Network app.
2:36
Speaker 1: You can watch it on YouTube, you can watch it
2:38
Speaker 1: on the Twitter at Action Network HQ. We will do.
2:41
Speaker 1: I'll remind everybody that our Fox sold bet this week.
2:44
Speaker 1: Pats minus three. Still a couple of minus threes out there,
2:47
Speaker 1: but it's moving, Simon says, Cowboys minus one that's been moving.
2:51
Speaker 1: Executive Decision Texans plus three and a half that's been moving.
2:54
Speaker 1: We gotta get to some screw trowlette. We gotta get
2:56
Speaker 1: to the money line round robin before we get to anything.
3:00
Speaker 1: Let's get to it. Shop calls hello, who's there? I'm
3:08
Speaker 1: talking Yeah, And another week of a couple of guys
3:17
Speaker 1: telling us what we're doing wrong, and then a couple
3:19
Speaker 1: of guys saying how they love our picks. So to
3:22
Speaker 1: know in surprise, Oh, I guess to some people surprised
3:25
Speaker 1: they love the Cowboys new coming in. This was gonna
3:27
Speaker 1: be a professional play. Got a little scared off, right.
3:30
Speaker 1: I took the number of minus two and a shot
3:31
Speaker 1: all the way down to minus one. I go oh man,
3:34
Speaker 1: I might be misreading this one and making a huge mistake,
3:36
Speaker 1: but I think the information I'd be getting is good.
3:39
Speaker 1: Got early word that they had injuries to their offensive line,
3:41
Speaker 1: got early word that Justice Jefferson might be a little
3:43
Speaker 1: banged up again. Still thinks he's gonna play. That's a
3:46
Speaker 1: huge advantage, right, the number one receiver, I guess you
3:49
Speaker 1: could say number two receiver and football behind Tyry Kill.
3:52
Speaker 1: He's a little banged up. That's a concern if you're
3:54
Speaker 1: a Vikings team going up against the Dallas team that, yeah,
3:57
Speaker 1: they have a good secondary, especially there with Dick's UM.
4:01
Speaker 1: That's the game I feel like we're gonna talk about.
4:03
Speaker 1: We like Dallas. The professionals like Dallas. The public. We
4:06
Speaker 1: already knew they're gonna be over Minnesota. They'll tease Minnesota.
4:09
Speaker 1: It's just one of those numbers they love, right. It's
4:11
Speaker 1: a gift the sports books give people every week to
4:14
Speaker 1: give you the plus one and a half on certain games.
4:16
Speaker 1: It's like, yeah, let me take that up to seven
4:17
Speaker 1: and a half on the teas or no brainer. Play
4:20
Speaker 1: um usually as a trap, so but this week I
4:24
Speaker 1: was definitely on that one early. UM. It's nice to
4:26
Speaker 1: hear the professionals like it as well. Um, a game
4:29
Speaker 1: that we we didn't talk much about, but we both um, yeah,
4:34
Speaker 1: we liked. We both liked the side in It was
4:36
Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh Cinci game. Heard from multiple professionals, they like
4:40
Speaker 1: they really like Pittsburgh again this week. They like him
4:41
Speaker 1: as a dog in this position. They liked him my
4:43
Speaker 1: home as a dog. But Tomlin, I can't go against
4:46
Speaker 1: I understand where they're coming from, but to me that
4:48
Speaker 1: since he just feels like a smart play where you know,
4:51
Speaker 1: this is a team that can move the ball up
4:53
Speaker 1: and down the field on most teams. Again, I get it,
4:56
Speaker 1: J J. Watts back that offensive line has issues for
4:59
Speaker 1: since You, but I just can't get there with them.
5:02
Speaker 1: And the fact the numbers come down so much. I mean,
5:04
Speaker 1: we can talk about coming up on the show, but
5:06
Speaker 1: if I got the three and a half three, how
5:08
Speaker 1: do I not take since You there? So it's definitely
5:10
Speaker 1: interesting the numbers come from five and a half the five. Um,
5:13
Speaker 1: that's really smart. Professional money coming in on it again.
5:16
Speaker 1: Another game we'll talk about the Houston. We thought we
5:19
Speaker 1: thought when we talked about thought was gonna pros verse
5:22
Speaker 1: Joe's game. The ticket accounts not as spared as I
5:24
Speaker 1: thought it was gonna be. I thought it was gonna
5:25
Speaker 1: be way more tickets on Washington. I thought the public
5:29
Speaker 1: bill over that one. But it's not as far off
5:31
Speaker 1: as you think. But the money is definitely slanted towards
5:34
Speaker 1: this Houston team, which again talked to a couple of
5:37
Speaker 1: different guys that really like Houston this week at three
5:39
Speaker 1: three and a half. I like it at three and
5:41
Speaker 1: a half. I don't know if I love it as
5:42
Speaker 1: much at three. I still think it's a good number,
5:44
Speaker 1: but three and a half feels like the smart number
5:46
Speaker 1: in that game. I could just see it being a
5:48
Speaker 1: field goal game, right. I feel like that's that's what
5:50
Speaker 1: most of us project out with Houston. They'll have a lead,
5:53
Speaker 1: they just don't want to protect these leads, so they're
5:55
Speaker 1: up by two. If if the game's tied, you just
5:58
Speaker 1: assume Houston loses that one. So interesting of the erupt
6:04
Speaker 1: of the tickets are on the Commanders to your point
6:09
Speaker 1: of the money on the Texas. Yeah, and I honestly
6:12
Speaker 1: think that's from two groups, Like I just I know
6:14
Speaker 1: one group that came in really heavy. I don't even know,
6:19
Speaker 1: not not today, but like I would say, twenty four hours.
6:23
Speaker 1: Twenty hours ago, I got a text about a group
6:26
Speaker 1: hitting that number heavy. Not all the books, right, but
6:28
Speaker 1: I just saw as soon as I checked the action app,
6:30
Speaker 1: I saw a bunch of threes across the board, so
6:31
Speaker 1: it was three and a half's all morning And then
6:34
Speaker 1: I really literally got this text. I looked and it
6:36
Speaker 1: was like all these threes just shifted, so clearly there
6:38
Speaker 1: there's a people taking a heavy position. I liked it already,
6:42
Speaker 1: like me and Chad both already better earlier in the week.
6:43
Speaker 1: I've continued to bet it at three and a half. Um,
6:46
Speaker 1: hopefully you're listening to this on Friday, you can still
6:48
Speaker 1: get the three now, because to me, that's that's a
6:50
Speaker 1: key number in this kind of matchup. So the last one, again,
6:53
Speaker 1: I don't think we're talking about much because I don't
6:55
Speaker 1: want to take the Bears. Um Atlanta. Atlanta was minus
7:01
Speaker 1: three all week. The professionals are coming heavy on that. Again.
7:05
Speaker 1: It's the strength versus a weakness, and the fact that
7:07
Speaker 1: Land wants to run the ball and the Bears can't
7:09
Speaker 1: stop the run. I think again, that's what these guys
7:11
Speaker 1: are gonna be betting. Chad's gonna talk about it, maybe
7:14
Speaker 1: that he likes it at three and a half of
7:15
Speaker 1: the Bears hard or argue against that. I've seen all
7:19
Speaker 1: the Lanta's games this year. Right, It's a team I
7:21
Speaker 1: really been on. They play close games and that's a
7:24
Speaker 1: huge key number three and a half. So I would
7:28
Speaker 1: prefer Atlanta minus three if you can't find out your
7:31
Speaker 1: book and all you have is a three and a half.
7:33
Speaker 1: I don't hate it taking the Bears, but to me,
7:34
Speaker 1: I would just pass on that game. So um, it's
7:36
Speaker 1: just interesally. The professionals they like that Atlanta team that
7:39
Speaker 1: bounce back spot here. I think they're on oh and
7:41
Speaker 1: three straight a t S streak after starting six and
7:44
Speaker 1: oh um, I think they think the values come back
7:46
Speaker 1: around on this Atlanta team. All right, we know people
7:52
Speaker 1: are big balls. We're gonna get to that. Uh. A
7:54
Speaker 1: couple of games that are floating around it, and we
7:57
Speaker 1: touched it just now on a lot of the games
8:01
Speaker 1: that we had zeroed in on the other day that
8:06
Speaker 1: we still like. Full disclosure, most of these games, Simon
8:11
Speaker 1: and I have bet at some point during the week. Um,
8:16
Speaker 1: I haven't bet the Bears because I'm still waiting on
8:17
Speaker 1: a three and a half. I haven't bet Atlanta a
8:21
Speaker 1: couple of games that I do want to get to though,
8:23
Speaker 1: So let's talk about the Cowboys because that is one
8:28
Speaker 1: that is so interesting. At what point do you think
8:35
Speaker 1: the Vikings go from being a mediocre team that's getting
8:40
Speaker 1: lucky to a good team that keeps itself in a
8:43
Speaker 1: position to win and makes its own breaks. Because right
8:46
Speaker 1: now they're on what they're they're eating one. Uh. Last
8:51
Speaker 1: week they had the what what we would catalog as
8:56
Speaker 1: the luckiest win in the NFL since two thousand four
9:01
Speaker 1: based on their win probability throughout the game, and the
9:08
Speaker 1: Cowboys like, we're playing the inflation, you know, we're playing
9:11
Speaker 1: the defense. We're playing the Vikings being bigged up and
9:14
Speaker 1: that we think they're lucky. At what point do we
9:16
Speaker 1: change our calculus on the Vikings. I feel like we've
9:21
Speaker 1: been nailing the Vikings all season since that we know
9:23
Speaker 1: exactly what they are. It's like a team that if
9:25
Speaker 1: they're a bigger favorite, we kind of faded when they're
9:28
Speaker 1: at home at one o'clock. I usually buy in on it.
9:31
Speaker 1: This is a nice little sweet spot where it's a
9:32
Speaker 1: four thirty start, So it's like you know, it's the
9:36
Speaker 1: in between where it's like, all right, at least I
9:37
Speaker 1: don't have to just bindly bet the Vikings at home here.
9:40
Speaker 1: But the biggest thing about me then me saying they're
9:44
Speaker 1: not a pretender is like, again, you can go back
9:47
Speaker 1: and watch that game. Kirk's Yes, we say it all
9:49
Speaker 1: the time. He has these moments, he's really dumb moments
9:51
Speaker 1: of you know, either taking the sack or making bad throws.
9:54
Speaker 1: But he also has these throws where it's like, you know,
9:57
Speaker 1: you see Kirk's talent right to that level, and we've
10:00
Speaker 1: seen it this year. He's had I think it's up
10:01
Speaker 1: to five games now where he's come back or whatever,
10:04
Speaker 1: had a game winning drive in the fourth quarter. That's
10:08
Speaker 1: a big deal if you're if you're a fan of
10:09
Speaker 1: the Vikings or you're someone has the futures on the
10:11
Speaker 1: Vikings where it's like, okay, to me, they have that
10:14
Speaker 1: division wrapped up. I just don't see them falling off
10:16
Speaker 1: a cliff here end the season, even though they are
10:18
Speaker 1: due for regression. Um, Like I just talked about, the
10:22
Speaker 1: one score game thing is real, like the best teams.
10:25
Speaker 1: The best team last year in one score games was
10:27
Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raiders this year, they're the worst team
10:30
Speaker 1: in one score games. That's how it is. It's just
10:33
Speaker 1: like eventually these things turn. Maybe it won't be this year,
10:35
Speaker 1: and maybe the Vikings will keep pulling off these miracles. Um.
10:40
Speaker 1: I just as someone that's just going off the pure
10:43
Speaker 1: data in the math, it's like, Okay, the Vikings are
10:46
Speaker 1: very talented team. I just don't think there are a
10:49
Speaker 1: top three, top four team in the NFC. And like, again,
10:52
Speaker 1: that's nothing to take away from them. It's more about
10:55
Speaker 1: their defense. Again, they're not as good as as people
11:00
Speaker 1: you're giving them credit for. It's like I've seen it
11:03
Speaker 1: where their d line has played well and I give
11:05
Speaker 1: them credit for that, but their secondary has major issues.
11:08
Speaker 1: On offense, again, Kirk is played incredibly. We're gonna see
11:13
Speaker 1: it this week. They might have major trouble on that
11:15
Speaker 1: offensive line with these injuries they have. So again in
11:17
Speaker 1: Minnesota team, I think they have a ton of talent.
11:20
Speaker 1: It's all gonna come back in the end of this
11:22
Speaker 1: head coach where it's like I've liked what they've done.
11:24
Speaker 1: They put Kirk in good positions, but you just talked
11:27
Speaker 1: about they've been on the luckier teams all season. So
11:30
Speaker 1: I don't want to say bad things about Minnesota because
11:32
Speaker 1: they have played so well. But this is just like
11:35
Speaker 1: a typical spot where even if they win this game, right,
11:38
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna over adjust or like, okay, now they
11:40
Speaker 1: are for real top two team, because I try not
11:43
Speaker 1: to overadjust those things. I just on paper, I look
11:45
Speaker 1: at this Cowboys team as they are better across the board.
11:48
Speaker 1: They match up very well across the board against the
11:50
Speaker 1: Minnesota teams. So just going off the matchups, that's where
11:53
Speaker 1: I like this. And then I'm playing the value of
11:55
Speaker 1: the number. I have this at three, it's minus one.
11:58
Speaker 1: That's what I'm taking the number. Again, if this was
12:00
Speaker 1: three and a half, I'd be all over in Minnesota's
12:02
Speaker 1: a home dog. At three and a half, that would
12:04
Speaker 1: be an amazing number. Maybe you can think about them
12:05
Speaker 1: at my plus three, but at plus one and a half,
12:09
Speaker 1: I think it's a bad number. And that's why I'm
12:10
Speaker 1: taking Dallas here. So I'm trying not to overthink it
12:13
Speaker 1: because I do think Minnesota is a good team. Um,
12:17
Speaker 1: it's just just a good spot to take a Dallas team.
12:19
Speaker 1: That again, the public is just simply often this is
12:22
Speaker 1: a truly a professional game. The pros are the ones
12:25
Speaker 1: betting this game. The public will be all over in
12:27
Speaker 1: Minnesota in this matchup. Vikings getting the bets, Cowboys getting
12:33
Speaker 1: seventy seven percent of the money. Yeah, and again we're
12:38
Speaker 1: not always right. Chat Chat says all the time, like,
12:40
Speaker 1: we get you wrong all the time. But it's just
12:42
Speaker 1: this is a game that pros will take a stance
12:44
Speaker 1: on just because they have the same number as I do.
12:46
Speaker 1: It's like this is a mitch a mismatch and a
12:48
Speaker 1: good matchup for this Dallas team. I still love the Cowboys. Uh,
12:54
Speaker 1: we still love the Texans at plus three and a half. Um,
12:59
Speaker 1: we think think Stucky. Listening to Stucky and Raybone this
13:02
Speaker 1: morning on the Action Network podcast, we were already on
13:06
Speaker 1: the Texans. Uh. Stucky was talking about how much he
13:09
Speaker 1: liked the Texans, and we had all the right theories
13:12
Speaker 1: on It's sort of the inflation um the luck factor
13:16
Speaker 1: for the for the Commanders in that game, some bad turnovers,
13:20
Speaker 1: some bad calls, like they were the better team, but
13:22
Speaker 1: they still got outgained on a yards perplay basis. The
13:26
Speaker 1: Texans outgained the Giants on the yards perplay basis. They
13:30
Speaker 1: outplayed the Giants on the yards per play basis. I
13:34
Speaker 1: will reiterate what I said the other day for red
13:37
Speaker 1: zone possessions in the Texans. Two turnovers, two field goals.
13:43
Speaker 1: So they are they they were the better team on Sunday.
13:48
Speaker 1: They didn't cover. Now they get to go home, they
13:51
Speaker 1: get a that we get the inflationary bounce on the Commanders.
13:57
Speaker 1: So now it's a three and a half. I come on, people,
14:00
Speaker 1: just do the right thing. Take the Texans. That's all
14:03
Speaker 1: we're asking. We're just asking you to be some goddamn professionals.
14:07
Speaker 1: It's another pros Joe's game. We talked about and the
14:11
Speaker 1: Commanders on the Texans, and I was right there with Chat, right,
14:18
Speaker 1: I love this game. Sunday night, right when this number
14:22
Speaker 1: came out, I was like, all right, this would be
14:23
Speaker 1: a good number. I'll wait, get the three and a half.
14:25
Speaker 1: Hopefully it gets there. Throw a little bit on it.
14:27
Speaker 1: Me and Chat I think we talked Tuesday morning, but
14:30
Speaker 1: still three. And then before um we did our show,
14:32
Speaker 1: jumped up a three and a half. That's when I
14:33
Speaker 1: was like, all right, I gotta grab that number. Surprised
14:36
Speaker 1: to hear that are two different groups really loved this
14:39
Speaker 1: game and they're betting heavy money on this game where
14:42
Speaker 1: I don't know. I try to stay away from the
14:43
Speaker 1: worst teams of football because you never know when teams
14:46
Speaker 1: have given up, right, when teams have just simply given up.
14:48
Speaker 1: And we saw Brandon Cooks, who was a captain of
14:51
Speaker 1: their team, he was stripped of his captaincy for this
14:54
Speaker 1: Houston team. Again, this is the guy that people would
14:56
Speaker 1: talk highly about. He got burned out from losing, Like
15:00
Speaker 1: that's a real thing. So that's my only worry with
15:03
Speaker 1: this Houston team is that they could be they could
15:06
Speaker 1: be cooked, right, they could have given up and just
15:09
Speaker 1: tuning out. Love you Smith. At this point, that's a
15:11
Speaker 1: major risk when you're taking this kind of game and
15:14
Speaker 1: this kind of number. But line test people, I'm like, again,
15:17
Speaker 1: I'm begging you, this is just a professional bet. You
15:19
Speaker 1: have to take the three and a half. It's overinflated
15:22
Speaker 1: line like Chad just talked about, games would be closer
15:25
Speaker 1: to I don't know, say one or two. The fact
15:28
Speaker 1: that it's three and a half at this point, it's
15:29
Speaker 1: been bet up that high just because of what Washington
15:32
Speaker 1: did on Monday night. It's too much. Um, Washington is
15:36
Speaker 1: not not the kind of team that blows teams out.
15:38
Speaker 1: We've just seen it all year. They let teams back
15:40
Speaker 1: and they play close games. So three and a half,
15:42
Speaker 1: it's just a no brainer, smart number. We will die
15:45
Speaker 1: on this hill, especially our contest. I know bringing out
15:47
Speaker 1: a three and a half hopefully, UM, I have to
15:50
Speaker 1: take It's just a no brainer play, you have to
15:53
Speaker 1: take it. We love the Texans for the contest. We
15:56
Speaker 1: love the Cowboys. I think we'll get a one or
15:57
Speaker 1: one and a half for the Cowboys. UM, let's talk
16:02
Speaker 1: about the New Orleans sense. We liked him the other
16:04
Speaker 1: day at minus four. We didn't know Stafford was playing.
16:07
Speaker 1: Stafford practiced today or practice yesterday. You said before we
16:13
Speaker 1: came on, you heard he had been cleared and he
16:16
Speaker 1: will be playing this weekend. The number is now down
16:19
Speaker 1: to three. UM, I still love the Sins. I don't
16:23
Speaker 1: care who's playing quarterback for the Rams. Yeah, it's just
16:27
Speaker 1: interesting that you know the professionals like Stafford and they
16:31
Speaker 1: came and have you on this Rams team. Where the
16:34
Speaker 1: issue to me is the Rams O line just keeps
16:36
Speaker 1: getting worse and worse every week. They keep losing guys. Um,
16:40
Speaker 1: they can't argument that guys this week lasts this week,
16:43
Speaker 1: the Saints don't get that much pressure. Um, I think
16:46
Speaker 1: they've improved as the season is going along. Here again,
16:48
Speaker 1: they've had weird matchups where you know, you have to
16:50
Speaker 1: throw out that Atlanta game because I was on Atlanta game.
16:52
Speaker 1: All they did was run the ball, so of course
16:53
Speaker 1: they didn't get any pressures in that game. Um, I
16:56
Speaker 1: just I don't really overreact to it. But Chad is
17:00
Speaker 1: dead on, Like, if if I could get a three
17:02
Speaker 1: in the contest, I'll take that. With the Saints team
17:04
Speaker 1: at home in a matchup against a Rams team that
17:06
Speaker 1: just has major issues across the board. Throw on top
17:10
Speaker 1: of that, they just lost Cooper Cup. I can't get
17:12
Speaker 1: over that. And I feel like the books aren't reacting
17:14
Speaker 1: enough to that that info, Like Stafford is really worth
17:17
Speaker 1: a point and a half at one point, what's Cooper
17:20
Speaker 1: Cup worth three points? Like seriously, And I'm like, Cooper
17:23
Speaker 1: Cup is there is of their offense exactly and at
17:27
Speaker 1: one point it was fifty percent of it. So it's
17:29
Speaker 1: just it's a major, major deal. I think the books
17:32
Speaker 1: are factory into it. So hopefully we get a good
17:34
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17:36
Speaker 1: a half off the locked at that number yesterday I
17:39
Speaker 1: passed on that, but at three, I would love to
17:42
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17:43
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Speaker 1: West Virginia. Can we talk about the Indianapolis Colts in
19:52
Speaker 1: the Philadelphia Eagles, please? Because right now, right now, the
19:58
Speaker 1: Colts are all of a sudden, a seven point under
20:00
Speaker 1: dubbed I. I'm starting to feel strongly about the Colts
20:09
Speaker 1: because Jordan Davis not playing for the Eagles. As far
20:14
Speaker 1: as they know, he will not be playing. That troubles me.
20:19
Speaker 1: If the dominant defensive alignement for the Eagles is Fletcher Cox.
20:24
Speaker 1: We saw what happened when he had to play at
20:25
Speaker 1: a ton of game, ton of plays on Monday night.
20:29
Speaker 1: The Colts can be a better running team than Washington.
20:34
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan, I like having him back under center in
20:37
Speaker 1: this kind of contest, going on the road, winning by
20:41
Speaker 1: a touchdown in the NFL. That's fucking hard, you know
20:47
Speaker 1: it is again everything you said, it's like, it's it's
20:49
Speaker 1: one of those I'll walk away from him most likely,
20:52
Speaker 1: but I don't know. Come Sunday, I feel like I
20:54
Speaker 1: might be able to convince you to take the six
20:56
Speaker 1: and a half. It's just to me, the biggest discrepancy
20:58
Speaker 1: is the head coaching position. Like the coaching for the
21:01
Speaker 1: Eagles to me is so much better than what the
21:04
Speaker 1: Colts have. And you know, we can say it all
21:06
Speaker 1: we wanted about last week, the I'm winning in that spot,
21:09
Speaker 1: I still believe it has more to do with the
21:11
Speaker 1: Raiders than anything else. And again, the Raiders were in
21:13
Speaker 1: that game, but they were winning twenty nineteen and they
21:15
Speaker 1: had the ball and you know, Derek Carr, you could argue,
21:19
Speaker 1: one of the worst qbs in football right now, gave
21:21
Speaker 1: the ball back to the Colts, which they took it
21:24
Speaker 1: down the field and score. So looking at this matchup,
21:28
Speaker 1: do we see Hurts having another bad game? Again, he
21:30
Speaker 1: didn't know that bad of a game last week, but
21:32
Speaker 1: the team just said as a whole, I just don't
21:35
Speaker 1: see it. The Eagles to me, are just a well
21:36
Speaker 1: coached team. Defensively, they got embarrassed. We've seen historically teams
21:41
Speaker 1: that get embarrassed tend to bounce back. But Chad's right,
21:44
Speaker 1: they're one of the worst ranks run defenses in football.
21:47
Speaker 1: And Jordan Davis is not coming back and Fletcher Cox,
21:51
Speaker 1: who Yeah, I hate to say it as an Eagles fan,
21:54
Speaker 1: he's just not that good anymore. And the man had
21:57
Speaker 1: to play seventies snaps in a football game last week. Um.
22:00
Speaker 1: They interviewed him, I think it was yesterday about how
22:03
Speaker 1: he felt, and he said he felt like ship. He
22:05
Speaker 1: said his whole body hurt. And it's like, well, Chad
22:07
Speaker 1: just nailed it. They gotta turn around a short week
22:09
Speaker 1: and now he's gotta play a bunch of snaps again.
22:11
Speaker 1: That's a big issue. So I wish I'd come in
22:14
Speaker 1: confidantly be like, no, you take the fucking Eagles here,
22:16
Speaker 1: this is the play. Chad's probably right. I'm probably being
22:19
Speaker 1: a little blinded here, um by the mismatch and the
22:21
Speaker 1: coaching staffs. But I just I can't. I cannot be
22:25
Speaker 1: talking to the colts at this number. Seven and a half. Eight.
22:29
Speaker 1: You pique my interest, But it was eight and a
22:30
Speaker 1: half Sunday night, was eight Monday morning, moved to seven
22:35
Speaker 1: and a half by Tuesday morning, and then seven by
22:39
Speaker 1: time or six I think six and a half by
22:40
Speaker 1: the time we did our show. Clearly professionals are with
22:44
Speaker 1: Chat like that's pro money keep coming in, moving that
22:47
Speaker 1: number um. Definitely an interesting game this week. Uh, I said,
22:52
Speaker 1: Chad's probably be on the right side of the professionals.
22:54
Speaker 1: But at six and a half, I already kind of
22:55
Speaker 1: made a position on this Eagles team. You know what
22:59
Speaker 1: that's to be? Are you doing it together? Right? We're
23:01
Speaker 1: not gonna agree on every game. We have to make compromises.
23:04
Speaker 1: We're in a relationship. At the end of the day,
23:08
Speaker 1: I think we make more correct decisions together. Uh. And
23:12
Speaker 1: if this ends up not being one, so be it.
23:14
Speaker 1: That's the world we live in. Yeah. And again, if
23:17
Speaker 1: you if you come to me Tuesday, I mean Sunday
23:20
Speaker 1: morning and it's seven and a half in our contest,
23:22
Speaker 1: and you're like, guy, I fucking love the Colts. It's
23:24
Speaker 1: one of my favorite two. I wouldn't say no because
23:27
Speaker 1: to me, everything we just talked about the truth. It's like,
23:30
Speaker 1: if they can then get a lead, the Colts and
23:32
Speaker 1: they can run the ball with last year's best running
23:35
Speaker 1: back in football Jonathan Taylor, who looks like he's kind
23:37
Speaker 1: of getting back into form here, that's a huge deal. Like,
23:40
Speaker 1: that's a team that can control the clock against an
23:43
Speaker 1: Eagles team that we've seen struggle in second half this year, So, um,
23:46
Speaker 1: I get what your head's at again, seven and a
23:48
Speaker 1: half would be the number for me at seven. Still
23:51
Speaker 1: kind of leaning towards the Eagles. Chargers plus six we
23:55
Speaker 1: said on we said on Tuesday, taking the plus seven,
23:58
Speaker 1: they're now plus six getting send you five percent of
24:01
Speaker 1: the money. That's why the numbers moving down. Um do
24:07
Speaker 1: we not like him at six in the contest? We
24:10
Speaker 1: like him at six and a half. I am not
24:12
Speaker 1: a buyer on the Chiefs as a near touchdown favorite.
24:15
Speaker 1: They don't do well in these games. Patrick Mahomes does
24:20
Speaker 1: not cover at big numbers. The Chargers are supposed to
24:24
Speaker 1: get Keenan Allen back, maybe Mike Williams back. Um, I
24:31
Speaker 1: we like the Chargers as dogs at big numbers. The
24:34
Speaker 1: variants plays to their favor Yeah, it's all about where
24:37
Speaker 1: the numbers at for our contest. But in real life people,
24:40
Speaker 1: you might get sick of the saying this because they
24:42
Speaker 1: burned us last week the Jaguar. But more than that
24:45
Speaker 1: touchdown favorite or even I think it's three and a
24:48
Speaker 1: half favorite. He's right, that's that's what That's what it is.
24:52
Speaker 1: He's below a t s and there's a reason for that.
24:55
Speaker 1: It's an inflated line backed off my home. So um yeah,
25:00
Speaker 1: I love the I love the Chargers. It just is
25:03
Speaker 1: always scary when Chad says all this money is coming
25:06
Speaker 1: in against my homes, um, because it's usually where he
25:08
Speaker 1: bites you. Like again, my homes is that talented. The
25:12
Speaker 1: books know what they're doing. They're flirting with us line
25:14
Speaker 1: here right, we saw it dropped down a five and
25:16
Speaker 1: a half, then it jumped up to six. They're just
25:18
Speaker 1: like us. They're trying to dictate what's gonna happen here
25:20
Speaker 1: with this Keenan Allen, Mike Williams News, because that's a
25:23
Speaker 1: big deal again, the secondary, you can look it up.
25:25
Speaker 1: They have a small secondary in the Chiefs. If you
25:27
Speaker 1: get two big body receivers, that's that's so huge for
25:31
Speaker 1: this Chargers team that on third down, that's where they've
25:33
Speaker 1: struggled again, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, if you go back
25:37
Speaker 1: and watch film, they are exactly who he looks for
25:39
Speaker 1: on third down this year. What has he been doing, Herbert?
25:41
Speaker 1: Were those guys out checking it down to Austin Ekeler?
25:44
Speaker 1: That doesn't work again, amazing fantasy football, but Austin Ekeler
25:47
Speaker 1: is not picking up those first downs like he would
25:50
Speaker 1: if he had these two big receivers. So if you
25:52
Speaker 1: missed the good numbers again, six and a half seven,
25:56
Speaker 1: I get if you want to take the six, But
25:58
Speaker 1: to me, I I would wait, you wait, wait and
26:00
Speaker 1: see if it's gonna Mike Williams or Keenan Allen here. Um,
26:03
Speaker 1: if me Chad do get words today morning that they
26:05
Speaker 1: are gonna be playing and we get six and a
26:07
Speaker 1: half in our contest, I'm gonna have to put that in.
26:10
Speaker 1: That's that's too big of a number of division of
26:12
Speaker 1: match a division matchup between these two teams here, especially
26:15
Speaker 1: when the Chargers, no, this is it right, they need
26:17
Speaker 1: to win this game if they have any chance in
26:19
Speaker 1: this division, which I've written them off. I don't think
26:21
Speaker 1: they have a chance in this division, but this would
26:23
Speaker 1: flip that. Then then winning this game would totally uh
26:27
Speaker 1: throw people into this division where they would actually have
26:29
Speaker 1: a chance at winning it. So to me, this is
26:31
Speaker 1: gonna mean more to this Chargers team. Um wait, wait
26:34
Speaker 1: on the number though, again, major major, major news of
26:37
Speaker 1: those two receivers play. I didn't wait on the number.
26:43
Speaker 1: You got You got the seven, though, didn't you? I
26:45
Speaker 1: got it? At six. Uh yeah, I mean I got
26:50
Speaker 1: the seven. So that's why I feel comfortable waiting or
26:52
Speaker 1: even six and a half, you got that, I feel comfortable.
26:54
Speaker 1: But yeah, if you're scared, I just want to grab
26:56
Speaker 1: the six just to be safe, because I do think
26:57
Speaker 1: i'll drop right as soon as those two guys get clear,
27:00
Speaker 1: it will drop the go ahead and grab it. Um. Again,
27:02
Speaker 1: it feels like the Cleveland game we talked about Cleveland,
27:04
Speaker 1: Buffalo blindly just grabbed day and a half because we
27:07
Speaker 1: knew the snow was coming. That taught me way more snow,
27:10
Speaker 1: apparently telling you be three to six feet now, which
27:13
Speaker 1: that's good for them, but just two towns over they're
27:15
Speaker 1: literally getting fift of snow. So this is ever evolving. Um,
27:20
Speaker 1: people asking about that game is gonna be canceled to
27:22
Speaker 1: Chad everything you read these people on Buffalo, these maniacs.
27:26
Speaker 1: They say that it's the snow is the day before,
27:28
Speaker 1: So it's not like the snow will be affect in
27:30
Speaker 1: that game. It's the cancelation would be are people gonna
27:33
Speaker 1: be able to get to the game. Um? So that
27:36
Speaker 1: was pretty funny reading all these comments online about this
27:39
Speaker 1: Buffalo game, because it's just tough, fast people up there.
27:41
Speaker 1: There's like, listen, we've had worse snow storms like this.
27:44
Speaker 1: We've made the Bills game. UM yeah, I again, as
27:49
Speaker 1: much as I would love um for this game, you're
27:51
Speaker 1: playing the snow. It seems like it's gonna be the
27:53
Speaker 1: kind of thing where it's the snow the day before,
27:55
Speaker 1: so you know it won't be that terrible during the game.
27:58
Speaker 1: I love the over though. If that's true and there's
28:01
Speaker 1: not gonna be snow and they're not gonna be crazy
28:02
Speaker 1: ship happening during the game, take that value and take
28:05
Speaker 1: the over. Um already grabbed it at forty one and
28:07
Speaker 1: a half forty one, it's at the forty two and
28:09
Speaker 1: a half of a bunch of books key number. I'd
28:11
Speaker 1: still grab it there. You could see it if it's
28:14
Speaker 1: clear day. If it's a clear sunny day and it's
28:15
Speaker 1: snow to ton the day before, who cares, Like that's
28:19
Speaker 1: perfect weather for josh Onen to throw in against a
28:22
Speaker 1: horrible Cleveland defense that you know, we just saw them
28:24
Speaker 1: to get it up by in Miami. We've seen the
28:26
Speaker 1: Bills be able to get run on and we had
28:28
Speaker 1: Nick Chubbin Town, so a low total in the game
28:30
Speaker 1: that you assume would be highest scorning without bad weather.
28:33
Speaker 1: I'd grab it now. Call it a snover. Snover, we
28:37
Speaker 1: got a snow over. Um okay, alright. We talked about
28:43
Speaker 1: the Chargers, we talked about the Cowboys, we talked about
28:45
Speaker 1: the Texans. We talked a little bit about the Saints,
28:48
Speaker 1: which are now down to three in some places. Um uh, Pats,
28:54
Speaker 1: if we can get three in the contest, we still
28:56
Speaker 1: like that, um green alflets carry off three and a
29:00
Speaker 1: half of the Pats, I don't think so. Okay, yeah,
29:03
Speaker 1: because because I told you, I make it four four
29:06
Speaker 1: and a half, so I think there's still good value
29:08
Speaker 1: on that number. We have not come up with the
29:11
Speaker 1: big balls yet, and I kind of was hoping to
29:12
Speaker 1: convince you that the Colts could be our big balls
29:17
Speaker 1: better the week. But it doesn't sound like I can't
29:19
Speaker 1: and now because I let you do it. Last week,
29:21
Speaker 1: I wanted to be Pittsburgh, so I was too easy
29:24
Speaker 1: and he took the Jaguars, and I got a lot
29:25
Speaker 1: of hate about I need to start standing firm against Chad.
29:30
Speaker 1: I was like, I like the Jaguars last week, though,
29:32
Speaker 1: what am I gonna do here? It's hard When he
29:34
Speaker 1: says big balls, and I like the game. I mean,
29:37
Speaker 1: if you want, brother, we're gonna go big balls. No,
29:41
Speaker 1: I can't do it. No, I guess it would be
29:44
Speaker 1: the Chargers, right, Yeah, I was just gonna say, the
29:46
Speaker 1: only other option is the Chargers, Like I was gonna say,
29:49
Speaker 1: that's the only one that truly is making me feel sick.
29:51
Speaker 1: It just sucks that it's at six, But I guess
29:53
Speaker 1: at the same time, it's a good number. So for
29:55
Speaker 1: big balls, I would do the six. It's just here's
29:58
Speaker 1: what I would say. Does it take big balls to
30:01
Speaker 1: bet the Bengals at three and a half? I don't
30:05
Speaker 1: to get your team, Pittsburgh, it does. It takes big
30:09
Speaker 1: balls to bet a road favorite of more than a
30:11
Speaker 1: field goal in a divisional game when the wise guys
30:15
Speaker 1: are on the Steelers. Big balls just about betting underdogs.
30:19
Speaker 1: It's do you have the fucking cohonis to go against
30:22
Speaker 1: the pros, Go against the pros, to bet a not
30:25
Speaker 1: perfect number because you've got conviction that you are on
30:29
Speaker 1: the right side of history. Here, sure I'll do it.
30:34
Speaker 1: I mean I feel sick in my stomach, feel sick
30:36
Speaker 1: to my stomach doing it. So unless you must be right,
30:38
Speaker 1: must take a sicker you feel the bigger the bet
30:43
Speaker 1: we're going since minus three and a half? Yeah, going
30:46
Speaker 1: against our boy, Chris. Oh yeah, we're going against Raybon.
30:50
Speaker 1: We're we're saying since, let's confirm we I don't want
30:55
Speaker 1: to be overly enthusiastic and convince you here. I told
30:59
Speaker 1: you that a proser on Pittsburgh this week. Like, I
31:01
Speaker 1: had a couple of calls and I said to them,
31:03
Speaker 1: what we're saying right now? It's like, all right, keep
31:05
Speaker 1: bending it. Let me get three and a half. It's
31:07
Speaker 1: three and a half. Vanduel, I gotta be a man
31:09
Speaker 1: of my word. Chat, I'm with you on it. We're
31:11
Speaker 1: doing looking Bengals Bengals big balls better than we care.
31:19
Speaker 1: I'm not in a hotel this week. I can screen
31:21
Speaker 1: it from the top of my fucking lungs. Cincinnati Bengals,
31:25
Speaker 1: big balls better. The week's still a lot up in
31:31
Speaker 1: the air. Yeah, and again, a lot can change, like
31:34
Speaker 1: Sunday morning. Again, we didn't really talk about it. Chad
31:36
Speaker 1: loves forty Niners. I want to take Arizona if they're
31:40
Speaker 1: down to their third string quarterback. I will be joining
31:43
Speaker 1: Chat on the forty Niners and again. If it's seven
31:45
Speaker 1: and a half eight in our contest, um, I'm happy
31:48
Speaker 1: to put that in. I'd make that number ten. It's
31:50
Speaker 1: the third stringer in there, so big deal. Again. Talked
31:53
Speaker 1: to a bunch of me amigos down in Mexico. They're
31:56
Speaker 1: all going to the game. They're all forty Niners fans.
31:58
Speaker 1: They said, it's about to be a fucking party. So
32:01
Speaker 1: do you want to know what the real people in
32:02
Speaker 1: Mexico City and uh in Mexico are doing. They are
32:05
Speaker 1: going to spots fans and they're going to party. So true,
32:18
Speaker 1: so so true. All right, we did big balls. Talked
32:22
Speaker 1: about a lot of games. I don't know that we've narratified,
32:25
Speaker 1: but I think in the category if people are getting
32:28
Speaker 1: six or seven, we like, yeah, like the Texans, the Paths,
32:32
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, the Chargers, the Browns a little bit, the Bengals.
32:37
Speaker 1: We we like. Saints at minus three we really like.
32:41
Speaker 1: So yeah, like, if it's down to six and a
32:44
Speaker 1: half seven, the Browns and we got eight and a
32:47
Speaker 1: half eight in the contest, we'll probably have to Yeah,
32:50
Speaker 1: we probably have to do it. Yeah, we'd have to
32:52
Speaker 1: do it. All right, let's talk about our money line.
32:56
Speaker 1: Round robin parlay and then we gotta do some scooch roulette.
33:04
Speaker 1: Dog your dog, Your dog Dog. I did not like
33:10
Speaker 1: this week Like last week. I feel like we had
33:12
Speaker 1: three three games that were just like good money lines.
33:15
Speaker 1: We did three. Uh, we had three winners last week.
33:18
Speaker 1: We had the Commanders we had I know, we had
33:21
Speaker 1: the Vikings. The Vikings we have someone else, I think Pittsburgh.
33:27
Speaker 1: We'll start off easy Bears, no brainer, like that's one
33:31
Speaker 1: of those again. If you got at three, I would
33:33
Speaker 1: just take them money line there. I just I could
33:35
Speaker 1: either see them one in this game or losing by
33:37
Speaker 1: two touchdowns. That's how the Bears have been this season
33:40
Speaker 1: and up and down team. Give me the Bears is
33:42
Speaker 1: our first leg game. We didn't even touch on, a
33:45
Speaker 1: game I didn't getting much info from pros about so
33:47
Speaker 1: I didn't really have a feel for. I think everyone's
33:49
Speaker 1: a little scared off in the professional community of this
33:51
Speaker 1: Giant's team. But Detroit feels like a smart side, but
33:55
Speaker 1: a smart side of sense. I'm just gonna take their moneyline.
33:57
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna mess with the points here. We're on
33:58
Speaker 1: the stinkier games this week, So start off with the Bears.
34:01
Speaker 1: Give me Detroit. I know chat, I wants to do it.
34:07
Speaker 1: I can't do it. I can't and say it, but
34:09
Speaker 1: I'll have to say it. Colts, we were in the
34:12
Speaker 1: mind Melde right there. You said it at the exact
34:14
Speaker 1: same time. I knew it, though. It's just you and
34:16
Speaker 1: you're spot on about It's like teams go through different
34:19
Speaker 1: periods in the season where they just dropped games. We've
34:22
Speaker 1: seen it. We just saw with the Bills. The Bills
34:23
Speaker 1: have dropped two games that ship no. I'm projecting out
34:27
Speaker 1: so I'm losing the Jets and then Minnesota at home.
34:29
Speaker 1: It's just that's wonky parts of the season that could
34:32
Speaker 1: be easily be the Eagles. You're dropping again, Washington dropping
34:34
Speaker 1: a game with the Colts. Give me Houston, no brainer.
34:37
Speaker 1: We love him at home and a bounce back spot
34:39
Speaker 1: here and top of alf Our big balls Chargers outright
34:43
Speaker 1: win again. It's not our big balls beat since he
34:45
Speaker 1: is our big balls bat. You're right the Chargers should
34:50
Speaker 1: be in this money line, Parlotte, You're I will I
34:54
Speaker 1: will listen because I wrote, I wrote, I wrote Chargers
34:57
Speaker 1: and big balls and I forgot to cross it out.
34:59
Speaker 1: You're right? Is it because you want Chargers in big balls. No,
35:02
Speaker 1: I'm going with either of them. They're both to me
35:04
Speaker 1: or take huge balls. They both make me feel sick.
35:07
Speaker 1: Fucking balls. Do you want, brother? I want scoocher let.
35:14
Speaker 1: Last week, Um I did. I had the Steelers. You
35:20
Speaker 1: had denver Um. Last night, I got a tax for
35:25
Speaker 1: old school, the old school fans of the Odds, the
35:28
Speaker 1: old school fans of the Behind the Bets podcast at ESPN,
35:33
Speaker 1: and then the buffet with Scooch. One of the main
35:36
Speaker 1: characters in the Odds. He was the Golden Boy. His
35:39
Speaker 1: name is Jim Corona. Jim Corona is now a massive
35:42
Speaker 1: executive in Vegas, has been for a long time. He
35:46
Speaker 1: was sort of the apprentice bookmaker to Bob Scucci and
35:50
Speaker 1: Joe Lupo at the Stardust in the late nineties. When
35:53
Speaker 1: I was doing the book The Odds and I love
35:56
Speaker 1: Jim Corona, he texted me. He texted Bob SCOOCHI ne
36:00
Speaker 1: texta Joe Lupo last night because someone had asked him
36:04
Speaker 1: to sign a copy of The Odds. Uh So, shout
36:08
Speaker 1: out to Scooch, Shout out to Jim coronas got shout
36:11
Speaker 1: out to Joe Lupo. Yeah, as we play this latest
36:16
Speaker 1: round of scooch Roulette, when all hope is lost, all
36:21
Speaker 1: that's left is relief. Let's play scooch Rolette. It's so ugly.
36:29
Speaker 1: I feel like I chose the Texans for exact decision.
36:32
Speaker 1: I'll take the Chargers plus six. There you go. I'm
36:36
Speaker 1: all in. I have to do it. I don't even
36:38
Speaker 1: have a choice. Give me Dallas minus one and one
36:41
Speaker 1: and a half. I'm all in on this week. It
36:43
Speaker 1: might be your biggest bet of the year. Yeah, it's
36:45
Speaker 1: shaping up that way I got. And it's the worst
36:47
Speaker 1: because now I can't sleep, like I won't starting Friday,
36:50
Speaker 1: will not be able to sleep. It's just there's just
36:52
Speaker 1: too much on the line. But it's Um, I feel good,
36:56
Speaker 1: I honestly do, like I just love this spot for
36:58
Speaker 1: this Dallas team. So got to keep under wraps. Don't
37:01
Speaker 1: want the bad farm up. But um going within scooch Roulette,
37:04
Speaker 1: need to win. Where we are right now, my one
37:07
Speaker 1: of my seven. I'm six and four in scooch Roulette.
37:11
Speaker 1: You are seven and three in scooch Roulette. Listen, neck
37:16
Speaker 1: and neck right now, I started off hot, you had
37:18
Speaker 1: a little bit of a run. We're both coming off
37:21
Speaker 1: hot right now. So six and four, seven and three. Yeah,
37:25
Speaker 1: the little thing we like to call cheating, but not really,
37:29
Speaker 1: it's just smart betting. I just rode Seattle a little.
37:33
Speaker 1: I just I just saw I saw Seattle a getting
37:36
Speaker 1: hot here. I was just like, you know what, I'm
37:36
Speaker 1: just gonna ride them in the scoot roulette and uh
37:38
Speaker 1: it served me. Will winds are winds? All right? I
37:43
Speaker 1: think we've done it all. Next week. Next week we
37:46
Speaker 1: have a normal episode on Tuesday, and we are off
37:49
Speaker 1: on Thursday, because, as Mett Mitchell says, nobody's fucking Lizzes
37:52
Speaker 1: in the podcasts Thursday and Friday of Thanksgiving week, and
37:57
Speaker 1: those looking to join us on app odd willing it
38:00
Speaker 1: will work, we will be on a PM Eastern on
38:05
Speaker 1: Tuesday where they can catch us though, where they can
38:08
Speaker 1: catch us on Thursday and Sunday. You can catch us
38:10
Speaker 1: on Thursday and Sunday. And convinced me a nice job,
38:13
Speaker 1: Simon Jesus Christ. I can't believe that, like this is
38:17
Speaker 1: only your third or fourth year doing it. There are
38:19
Speaker 1: people who have been doing this for twenty years or
38:22
Speaker 1: thirty years like me, who would forget to tell people
38:24
Speaker 1: where to catch us watch a sun Convinced Me Me,
38:27
Speaker 1: Simon Raybond, Coroner, jenra Vl, Samantha Paviti. We have a
38:30
Speaker 1: Thursday episode Action Network HQ on Twitter, in the app,
38:34
Speaker 1: on YouTube, and then we have a Sunday episode eleven
38:37
Speaker 1: a m. Eastern Catch us. It'll be awesome. We'll be
38:40
Speaker 1: doing a lot of talking about gambling as we do.
38:42
Speaker 1: And uh download us from Apple podcasts, from Spotify, wherever
38:45
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. Don't forget rate review, subscribe five stars,
38:51
Speaker 1: say whatever you want feedback as a gift until next time.
38:54
Speaker 1: For Simon Hunter, for Matt Mitchell, the greatest producer ever,
38:58
Speaker 1: cares about you guys more than you know. I'm Chad Nolman.
39:02
Speaker 1: Love you. M m m hm