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Transcript

Full 2026 Fantasy Draft Strategy In Under 15 Minutes · Upper Hand Fantasy

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Most draft strategy videos take forever, 30 minutes, sometimes way more, and they still don't even tell you what to actually do with your picks.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna give you the entire thing in under 15 minutes.
• 0:08
  SPEAKER_00: Where you're picking from, how many running backs do you need by round three?
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: When to grab a quarterback, when to wait, how I pick a handcuff, worth rostering, all of it.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: This is the same approach that had me building around guys like Drake May, George Pickens, and Trey McBride last year before it became obvious to everybody.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna walk you through exactly what to do, whether you're picking first, whether you're picking last, or anywhere in between.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: So some real strategy for you, actual draft slot.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: And then I'll show you the point in the draft where all those different paths start looking the same.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_00: And if you stick around, I'm giving away my blueprint, my actual like if I had only one league draft plan.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: Full breakdown.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: I'll tell you how to grab it in a sec.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: But let's get into it.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: So, real quick, before anything else, the draft is won by round six, not by the sleeper you found in round 14, round six.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: Everybody obsesses over the fun stuff.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna give you that too.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: But we're starting where the draft actually gets decided.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: Where you're sitting in the draft changes what's available to you early.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: That's it.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: That's the only thing that changes.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: Picks one and two, you're most likely getting Gibbs or Bijan.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going Gibbs at one, Bijan at two.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: Picks three through eight, receivers the move most of the time.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_00: Picks nine through twelve, you've actually got a choice, running back or receiver.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_00: So this next part is mostly rounds one and two, the one stretch where your slot actually drives completely different decisions and outcomes.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: It'll drift a little into round three here and there, just as a preview of where these paths start meeting back up.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: After round two, though, it changes and I'll show you exactly how.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: So let's actually walk through it.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: Picks one and two, you took your running back.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: Now, round two at the two, three turn.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_00: This is Brock Bowers' territory for me.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm choosing him a lot of the time.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_00: I think Bowers is a legitimate league winner even this early.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: Clink Kubiak, that role, I think he can do for Bowers what he did for JSN.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody else on that offense is sniffing his target share.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: There aren't many tight ends who can give you an actual positional advantage at the position.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: And I think he's one who has the best shot at giving you the biggest advantage in fantasy this year.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: If Bowers isn't there or he's just not for you, George Pickens and Chris Olave are the next tier.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_00: Honestly, doubling up at receiver here is totally fine, even preferred, because that next elite tier is usually dried up by the time you're picking again at the four or five turn.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: And depending on how the offseason shakes out, Josh Jacobs at a real discount is the boomer bust one, right?
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: You can lock up another RB1 here in the third round at a two, three turn and hope a suspension doesn't hit.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if you're picking a little later and you choose to go McCaffrey, round two, Chase Brown's realistically there.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: McCaffrey and Chase Brown is basically an elite one-two punch, McCaffrey and McCaffrey light.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: And honestly, if it's not Chase Brown for you there, doubling up on running back in general at this spot is probably my favorite strategy overall, going robust running back early.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_00: Then you're loading up at receiver starting in round three, right into that big tier.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get there in a minute.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: Now it's a different situation entirely if you're picking in that three to six range and then you go receiver first.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_00: So you take the receiver, and then a round two, I'm really hoping I can get a solid RB1.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: Chase Brown, Kenneth Walker, Marion Hampton, Saquon if he's still there.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: Any of them falling here is a win, but it happens sometimes.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: So don't count on it.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: If none of them are there, take another receiver.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: You're okay.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: Somewhere like Nico Collins or AJ Brown, you could go Brock Bowers if you really believe, you'll be fine.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: I'll show you how to course correct if you end up going this route, meaning taking two wide receivers with your first two picks.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_00: Not my favorite path, but it is doable.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: If I'm a pick five, that's where I'd actually take Amon Ra over JSN.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: Same situation as above from there.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: Round two, you're taking a back.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: Hopefully, one of Genty, Saquon, Chase Brown, Hampton, or Walker, like I said before.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if you're picking at the very end of the first, like picks nine through 12-ish, James Cook's my guy.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: If he's gone, I'm not settling for a receiver here.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_00: The ones going in that range, we're talking CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and Drake London.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: They're all elite, obviously.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: But Jefferson and London, especially, have some offensive environment questions.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not overly concerned about London.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: I think he can overcome, you know, any quarterback changes.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: We saw what he did with Penix.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_00: He was fine.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: He was actually great with Penix, and two offers a little bit more accuracy that Penix might not have.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_00: So it might end up evening out.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: CeeDee Lamb's in a great situation, but it's more of a 1A, 1B thing than people want to admit.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_00: I think there's a real range of outcomes where the 1B outproduces him this year.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: I'd rather reach on Chase Brown instead in some situations.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: And if it is Chase Brown in round one, I'm still doubling up in round two.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_00: Kenneth Walker, Saquon Barkley, Ashton Gentie if he's there.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_00: Amarian Hampton, if those other guys aren't.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: Either way, two backs, two picks, draft gets easier from here.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_00: So now that we're done with the first two rounds, you might notice something here: five different starting points, five different first two picks.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: And by round four, I'm choosing a lot of the same players.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: Past round two, your draft slot barely matters anymore.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: And honestly, ADP starts mattering a lot less too.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: What matters is what's already on your roster.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna pause real quick right here because everything I'm walking you through here is the framework.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: If you want the extended version, my actual round by round draft plan, if I genuinely only had one league to play this year and draft in, it's completely free.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_00: Just DM me the word blueprint on Instagram at upperhand fantasy and I'll send it over.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_00: So find me on Instagram at upperhand fantasy.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_00: DM me the word blueprint and I'll send it over for free.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_00: Back to where we were.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: Whichever of those paths you took in the first two rounds, here's where you land after two rounds.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: Running back heavy, receiver heavy, or balance with one of each.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: And from here, that's what actually drives your next few picks.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: If you're running back heavy after two rounds, meaning you have two running backs on your roster so far, you're loading receiver hard.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: Rounds three and four.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: This is where that big tier lives.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: We're talking Chris Olave, Devante Smith, Emeka Ibuka, Jalen Waddell, Lad McConkey, uh Luther Burden, Zay Flowers, Malik Neighbors as a value name if the recovery keeps trending up.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: Any two of those in rounds three and four, you are happy.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: Round five and six, this year.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: I actually like leaning back into running back here, even reaching into that dead zone a little.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: Scatabou, Tutin, Montgomery, Swift, same names either build is looking at by this point.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: Tutin, especially.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: He's one of my favorite backs to draft at his price.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_00: And by then, you should have three running backs and two receivers.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: If you're wide receiver heavy after two rounds, which means you have two receivers at this point, you're kind of pigeonholed into taking Javante Williams in round three.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: That's really your spot for him.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: He's usually not around by round four.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: And I think round three is a perfectly good price to pay for Javante Williams.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: I just love taking wide receivers in round three, round four.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: But in round four, I do like to grab another receiver from that same big tier that we mentioned.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: Then hopefully by round five, one of those other backs is still there for your RB two, scatterboo, Montgomery, Swift.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_00: If it's Tutin, you're sitting really pretty.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: That's two running backs, three receivers heading into round six.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if you took Bowers in round two at that two, three turn, tight end solved.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: You don't have to worry about trying to find one later on, but you do have some catching up to do at running back and receiver.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: Round three on, it's pure best player available between the two, same names as everybody else.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_00: And it means you can skip the whole tight end conversation later in this video.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: No need to fight for craft or wait on Goddard.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_00: That's a problem you already don't have.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if you're balanced after two rounds, one back and one receiver, you've got the most flexibility of anyone here.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_00: Best player available, round three, a second receiver from that big tier is completely fine.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: You don't need to force a running back here.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_00: If you do want to back, Javante Williams will be the one worth reaching for.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: Either way, you can still circle back for running back depth in round four or five once that receiver tier has been addressed.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_00: And a couple of notes as you work your way through the draft, you want to balance your risk as you go.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: If you reached last round, maybe you play it safe this round.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_00: For example, Montgomery and Swift over another Tutin style swing.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_00: If you already took your shot, right?
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_00: Tutin's the swing, and Montgomery and Swift are the safer guys.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_00: I like to treat like one draft as a portfolio, not a series of independent bets, if that makes sense.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_00: One rule that I would keep in mind through this whole stretch, especially if you're picking at the turns, go get your guys.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_00: Like, don't only look at the guys like four before the ADP and four after ADP.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_00: Go get them.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: If you take him around early, take him around early.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_00: And also don't force to fill out your starting lineup as you're drafting.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_00: If you got two running backs and there's another great running back still on the board, take the running back.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_00: Sure, that might be considered a luxury pick, but you can put that pick in your flex.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: So now you have three baller running backs and you can worry about wide receiver later.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_00: There's a ton of value.
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_00: So for me, honestly, like it is very tough to avoid at least one receiver from that big tier that I mentioned, no matter what my roster already looks like.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_00: And one name that I'm hunting for specifically, like the guy that I'm calling out here, when you once you hit round six or seven, is Parker Washington.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_00: He's been one of my guys all offseason, you know, real top 12, top 15 upside at receiver.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_00: I'd rather reach for him than settle for a safer lower ceiling option in that range.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, running backs and receivers are mostly locked in by now.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk about the two positions I'm intentionally not touching yet, starting with quarterback.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_00: I wait every year, mostly.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_00: There's a real value tier.
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_00: You got Jaden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Drake May, Jackson Dart this year, all going within a few picks of each other, all underpriced relative to their ceiling, especially the guys not named Jackson Dart.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if you wait even more, there's another whole tier Caleb Williams, Herbert, Prescott, Trevor Lawrence.
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_00: I'm avoiding Mahomes at his price, and I do love Brock Purdy.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_00: I just need to see his receiver room stabilize a little bit before I trust it.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_00: That offense has had real injury concerns this summer.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_00: That's just the time of this video as I'm making it.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_00: But honestly, my quarterback is usually either Purdy or Trevor Lawrence, even Dak Prescott, right in that round eight dead zone.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: Dead zone meaning like for other skill position players.
• 9:09
  SPEAKER_00: And that's kind of the round where guys like Pittman and Godwin are going.
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_00: And I like those guys there, but I'm I know I'm giving up the same like weight and value logic applies at tight end, with one exception right at the top.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_00: And that one true anchor is Brock Bowers.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: After that, I will wait if I don't grab him.
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_00: Now, Tyler Warren's really good.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_00: I just don't end up with him much, only because there are too many skill position players I'd rather have in that range, other skill position players, I should say, in that range.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_00: My guy is Tucker Kraft, right in that sixth round range.
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_00: That's a spot where you know I'm not really upset about anything I passed up to get him.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, if he's gone, Sam Laporte's growing on me a little bit with a new OC.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_00: Kincaid is a pure upside bet.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_00: If the playing time ends up being real, my favorite weight though is Dallas Goddard, ninth or tenth round, maybe even later in most leagues.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_00: You kind of load up everywhere else, you grab him last, he holds it down all year for you.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_00: Like that's what I want.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if you really, really want to wait longer, Isaiah Likely is probably your best shot after that at holding down the position all year for you.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_00: Chico Conko, maybe a round or two later, a little less likely, but he's got a real role.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_00: After that, with maybe your last round pick, Terrence Ferguson is a pure dart throw.
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_00: I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up top five at the position, if he gets the role he's capable of.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: But once you look at the totality here, you have quarterback handled, tight ends handled.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_00: Everything from here on, the whole rest of your draft is a different mindset.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_00: From here, I'm not chasing floor anymore at all.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_00: I am chasing pure ceiling.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_00: What you want to do too is watch for depreciating value, guys whose role might shrink as the season goes on, like Kyron Williams last year, lost snaps to Blake Quorum as the season went on.
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_00: Could easily happen again this year.
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_00: Same idea with J.K.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_00: Dobbins potentially, Chuba Harvard, Aaron Jones.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_00: Good players, bad direction, right?
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_00: Now there's two backfield plays worth knowing in general.
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_00: Now I want to touch on handcuffs real quick and which handcuffs to actually roster and keep them on your roster all year round.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_00: Now you could handcuff your own running back.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: I call that playing defense.
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_00: It's mostly insurance.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_00: Most of the time, the backup doesn't outscore the starter he's replacing.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_00: It's fine to do, but it doesn't win you the league by itself.
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_00: Now rostering someone else's handcuff, that's playing offense.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_00: Your own handcuff only pays off when you're already worse off.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: Your starter's hurt.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_00: Someone else's is different.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_00: Your team stays exactly as good as it already is.
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_00: And if another starter goes down and you have that handcuff, you just added a league winner for free.
• 11:21
  SPEAKER_00: You put it right into your flex spot, and now look at your team.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_00: Pure upside, no downside against it.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_00: And then you look at the genuinely murky backfield, I call them ambiguous backfields, right?
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_00: I would not avoid them by all means.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_00: I know a lot of people do, but feel free to pick a side because a lot of times you get a league winner from these guys.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_00: Jalen Warren over Rico Daddle in Pittsburgh, for example, Jadarian Price in Seattle, Kenny Gainwell at his price, maybe over Bucky Irving at his price.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: That one might be a little too spicy for this video.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_00: Similar thing in the commander's backfield, right?
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_00: Looks like a crowded backfield, two or three guys splitting it.
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_00: But if one of them emerges as the clear lead, whoever that is severely outproduces his ADP.
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_00: Like Jakori Krosky Merritt is like probably has the most chances of becoming the guy.
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of people think that there won't be a guy, so that's why all of these guys' prices are depressed.
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_00: Jakori Krosky Merritt is my pick there, then Rashad White, and then K Tron Allen as a fallback name.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_00: If those guys are not on the board and you're picking super late, so if you have real conviction on who potentially can win an ambiguous backfield, that's an advantage.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: And that back is usually underpriced because the market's hedging and you don't have to.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if you'd rather not gamble in any of that, there is a safe floor tier, kind of in like round seven to ten range.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_00: If you want to bank on a little bit of certainty instead, Chris Gowin, Michael Pittman, Wandell Robinson and PPR, Josh Downs a little later as well, Jordan Addison.
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_00: Those are guys that you can potentially depend on if you're needy at wide receiver and you went running back heavy or you chose a tight end early, etc.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_00: All right, let's bring it home.
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_00: That's the whole thing.
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_00: Draft slot gets you started after round two.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_00: It's about what's on your roster, not where you're picking from.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_00: You want to wait on quarterback for the most part, wait on tight end for the most part, chase certainty early and upside late.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if you want the extended version of what I just gave you, kind of this round by round plan, the prices, the targets, all of it, find me on Instagram at Upperhand Fantasy, DM me the word blueprint, and I'll send that over for free.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_00: Good luck in your drafts this year.