Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 1/28/26: Lawsuit Exposes Venezuela Lies, AI Dire Warning, UAE Vs Saudi Arabia

Transcript

1/28/26: Lawsuit Exposes Venezuela Lies, AI Dire Warning, UAE Vs Saudi Arabia · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

0:00
Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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0:33
Speaker 2: Let's talk about this very significant lawsuit that has now
0:38
Speaker 2: been filed in the context of all of these you
0:40
Speaker 2: know what I would call extra judicial assassinations of these
0:44
Speaker 2: people in boats administration says there are all drug traffickers. Well,
0:48
Speaker 2: the families of two men who were killed say, you know,
0:52
Speaker 2: our loved ones had nothing to do with the drug trade.
0:56
Speaker 2: And I'm going to read extensively from this CNN piece
1:00
Speaker 2: because I think it's important to hear some of the
1:03
Speaker 2: details here of who these human beings were. They say,
1:07
Speaker 2: families of two men believed to have been killed in
1:10
Speaker 2: a military strike on a boat. On boat sue US
1:13
Speaker 2: government over unlawful attacks. As the US military began launching
1:16
Speaker 2: strikes on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean last year,
1:19
Speaker 2: a young Trinidadian man who was in Venezuela for work
1:22
Speaker 2: was searching for a way home. Chad Joseph, twenty six,
1:25
Speaker 2: had been in Venezuela for months fishing and doing farm
1:28
Speaker 2: work when he began looking for a boat to hitch
1:29
Speaker 2: a ride back to Las Cuevas in Trinidad and Tobago,
1:32
Speaker 2: where his wife and three children lived. But as the
1:35
Speaker 2: US began targeting vessels, officials said we're carrying drugs destined
1:38
Speaker 2: for American streets, Joseph became increasingly fearful of making the journey.
1:42
Speaker 2: Court documents say the concerns became so real that in
1:45
Speaker 2: early September his wife were called. He called to assure
1:47
Speaker 2: her he had not been a board of vessel that
1:49
Speaker 2: was just hit by the US, pledging to be home soon.
1:53
Speaker 2: The last call home was on October twelfth, when Joseph
1:55
Speaker 2: told his wife he'd found a boat to bring him
1:57
Speaker 2: back to Trinidad and he would be seeing her in
1:59
Speaker 2: a mans matter of days, according to court documents. Two
2:02
Speaker 2: days later, however, on October fourteenth, the US struck another target,
2:07
Speaker 2: a boat that Joseph's family believes he was in. Mister
2:10
Speaker 2: Joseph's wife repeatedly called mister Joseph's cell phone, but the
2:14
Speaker 2: line was dead. A lawsuit filed Tuesday against the US
2:17
Speaker 2: government says the line remains dead to this day. There
2:21
Speaker 2: is another man involved here, forty one year old Rishi
2:25
Speaker 2: Samaru had been working with Joseph and Venezuela also believed
2:29
Speaker 2: to have been on the boat, also part of this lawsuit.
2:33
Speaker 2: And mister Samaru had served a prison sentence for a murder,
2:39
Speaker 2: but he had been confirmed by the government of Trinidad
2:42
Speaker 2: and Tobago say, you know, he served his time and
2:45
Speaker 2: there's no indication that he had any involvement with drug trafficking, cartels, etc.
2:50
Speaker 2: And for mister Joseph, there's no criminal record to speak
2:53
Speaker 2: of at all that we are aware of. So they
2:57
Speaker 2: are suing and it's the first time only that the
3:01
Speaker 2: court will really look at the legality of these strikes
3:05
Speaker 2: on what again and administration has claimed as drug traffickers,
3:09
Speaker 2: but not only in this instance, but in others. First
3:11
Speaker 2: of all, they've provided no evidence, and as we've discussed
3:13
Speaker 2: extensively in this show already, they lie about all kinds
3:16
Speaker 2: of things all the time, and you should not take
3:17
Speaker 2: their word for literally anything. But not only in this instance,
3:21
Speaker 2: in others as well, there have been indications that the
3:24
Speaker 2: boats did not contain the drugs that they claimed, that
3:28
Speaker 2: the people involved were not in fact drug traffickers, And
3:31
Speaker 2: so this will be the first time that there's a
3:34
Speaker 2: legal question that is considered over whether any of this
3:37
Speaker 2: is legal whatsoever.
3:39
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, and we were talking about this earlier in
3:41
Speaker 3: the show in regard to Ice and the messaging pr
3:44
Speaker 3: strategy that DHS has deployed in some of these situations,
3:47
Speaker 3: which is to get out ahead of the narrative. It's
3:50
Speaker 3: something Republicans have learned during the Trump era is that
3:54
Speaker 3: because the legacy media gatekeepers have crumbled and there's much
3:58
Speaker 3: less distrust in the media, if you get out with
4:01
Speaker 3: a strong narrative, even if it ends up being wrong.
4:05
Speaker 3: Now the pretty case is going to really test their
4:07
Speaker 3: theory to this, but even if it ends up being wrong,
4:10
Speaker 3: it kind of fades into the background by the time
4:14
Speaker 3: the facts and details come out and you've won the
4:16
Speaker 3: political battle.
4:18
Speaker 4: In the near term.
4:19
Speaker 3: This case is probably sadly going to be an example
4:23
Speaker 3: of that, where the administration was making an utterly ridiculous case,
4:28
Speaker 3: flirting with lying the country into a kinetic war. Thank
4:33
Speaker 3: god that hasn't broken out further in Venezuela. But that's
4:36
Speaker 3: what this was about. Thank god, there haven't been American
4:39
Speaker 3: lives lost in Venezuela. There have been lives lost in Venezuela,
4:42
Speaker 3: but we're at this point just hoping nothing more explodes.
4:47
Speaker 3: But that's what this was about. And the story was
4:49
Speaker 3: every single person on these vessels was a drug trafficker.
4:53
Speaker 3: If that was the case, they were not arresting and
4:57
Speaker 3: then detaining and charging trying these guys in court. They
5:00
Speaker 3: were just repatriating them, deporting them, deporting them, but sending
5:04
Speaker 3: them back to different countries.
5:07
Speaker 4: And that tells you what you need to know.
5:09
Speaker 3: Likely that they feel the case is weak, that they
5:11
Speaker 3: are not confident every single person was a drug trafficker,
5:14
Speaker 3: and now they're going to have to see these details
5:16
Speaker 3: come out in court, Crystal. But what matters for them
5:19
Speaker 3: is that the regime change in Venezuela, well, quote unquote
5:22
Speaker 3: regime change in Venezuela. They still have the same regime
5:24
Speaker 3: in charge. But all that is to say their Maduro
5:27
Speaker 3: operation was completed, and that's what this was all about.
5:30
Speaker 4: Anyway.
5:31
Speaker 3: It wasn't about and we covered this extensively, but obviously
5:33
Speaker 3: it wasn't about drug trafficking.
5:36
Speaker 4: It was about regime change.
5:38
Speaker 2: Yeah. No, this was the pretext for that regime change operation,
5:43
Speaker 2: the kidnapping of Maduro, the running quote unquote of Venezuela,
5:48
Speaker 2: making Venezuela great again. And it's worth remembering, you know again,
5:52
Speaker 2: in the context of the narratives and the lies that
5:54
Speaker 2: this administration is willing to tell. We could put Trump's
5:57
Speaker 2: truth up on the screen year with you know, they
6:01
Speaker 2: love sharing video from Afar of these boat bombings, like,
6:06
Speaker 2: you know, like we're such big, tough, bad guys that
6:08
Speaker 2: we can blow some you know, small fishing boat out
6:11
Speaker 2: of the water. Congratulations to us, he said. Under my
6:13
Speaker 2: standing authorities as Commander in Chief, this morning, Secretary of
6:16
Speaker 2: War ordered a lethal kinetic strike on a vessel affiliated
6:19
Speaker 2: with a designated terrorist organization conducting NARCO trafficking in the
6:24
Speaker 2: US southcom Area of responsibility just off the coast of Venezuela.
6:27
Speaker 2: Intelligence confirmed the vessel was trafficking narcotics, was associated with
6:31
Speaker 2: illicit narco terrorist networks, and was transitting along a known
6:35
Speaker 2: dto route. The strike was conducted in international waters and
6:39
Speaker 2: six male narco terrorists aboard the vessel were killed in
6:41
Speaker 2: the strike. No US forces were harmed. Thank you for
6:44
Speaker 2: your attention to this matter. So that is how this
6:49
Speaker 2: strike that killed mister Joseph and mister Samru among others,
6:54
Speaker 2: that is how it was portrayed, and they were portrayed
6:56
Speaker 2: as criminal narco terrorists, and what their families and what
7:01
Speaker 2: their own government says is that that was not remotely
7:04
Speaker 2: the case. And your point about the instances where there
7:08
Speaker 2: were survivors and rather than them scooping them up and
7:12
Speaker 2: bringing them to US court and charging them with drug trafficking,
7:15
Speaker 2: rather than doing that, they quietly sent them back to
7:18
Speaker 2: their home countries, I think is incredibly important detail and
7:23
Speaker 2: very telling because if there's such you know, if there
7:26
Speaker 2: are these hardened, terrible narco terrorists that you know, they
7:29
Speaker 2: say like, oh, all every they're bringing fentanyl in and
7:33
Speaker 2: all of the fentanyl is murdering Americans and that's why
7:36
Speaker 2: we have to act. So you just let them loose
7:38
Speaker 2: to continue doing that. You can't take any of this seriously,
7:42
Speaker 2: so it'll you know, I'm not very confident that the
7:45
Speaker 2: court system is going to really rein in the power
7:48
Speaker 2: of this government, but just having a lawsuit where there
7:51
Speaker 2: will be some level of discovery, some level of inquiry
7:54
Speaker 2: into the legal justifications here, who these men were, what
7:58
Speaker 2: the reality is of the situation, you know, at least
8:00
Speaker 2: it could serve some good in terms of the public's
8:03
Speaker 2: right to know what is being done in their name.
8:07
Speaker 3: And you know, one of the things, I don't know
8:08
Speaker 3: if we disagreed with us or I disagreed with Ryan
8:10
Speaker 3: on it, but I mean, I just think presidential war
8:12
Speaker 3: powers are so absurdly broad that they find legal justifications.
8:17
Speaker 3: Like I'm just not optimistic about presidential war powers being
8:20
Speaker 3: challenged significantly in court because if you look at the
8:23
Speaker 3: ways the administration justified the boat strike, I'm going and
8:26
Speaker 3: reviewing the statutes that they cite, and I'm like, well, yep,
8:30
Speaker 3: we have allowed our presidents to get away with expanding
8:33
Speaker 3: war powers over the course of the last several decades massively.
8:38
Speaker 3: And I just again like, I don't know that they're
8:41
Speaker 3: even worried about this blowing back because they've done what
8:45
Speaker 3: they wanted to do. They were never going to be
8:47
Speaker 3: able to prove that every single people who they killed
8:51
Speaker 3: immediately with lethal force was being directed. This is what
8:56
Speaker 3: they would have had to approve to make the case
8:59
Speaker 3: that they were making in public, not even legally, but
9:02
Speaker 3: the case that they had to sort of match to
9:04
Speaker 3: their own rhetoric is that this was a Maduro state
9:08
Speaker 3: backed effort to traffic drugs into the United States to
9:13
Speaker 3: undermine national security, like as an act of war. That
9:17
Speaker 3: they were soldiers on the march with these with this
9:21
Speaker 3: cocaine on their way to Trinidad or wherever instead of
9:27
Speaker 3: the shores of the United States, and this was an
9:30
Speaker 3: act essentially an act of war against the American people,
9:33
Speaker 3: And that case would have been virtually impossible to make.
9:35
Speaker 4: Yeah.
9:35
Speaker 2: Well, I also keep in mind that once they once
9:39
Speaker 2: they kidnapped Aduro and you know, actually had to file
9:43
Speaker 2: some official documents with the court, they also backed off
9:46
Speaker 2: their claim that there was an actual cartel, the Cartel
9:50
Speaker 2: del Solos, that this was a real thing. They had
9:53
Speaker 2: to take that out of the of the charges and
9:57
Speaker 2: be like, well, that's more of like a like kind
9:59
Speaker 2: of a state of mind. We didn't mean it's like
10:01
Speaker 2: a real, actual cartel. So you know, I can't say
10:05
Speaker 2: whether you know, legally this has any shot of going anywhere.
10:09
Speaker 2: You're right that the war powers are extremely broad, and
10:11
Speaker 2: I don't think it's crazy to be very cynical about
10:15
Speaker 2: any of that. But you know, at the very least,
10:17
Speaker 2: we can get a little bit of scrutiny on some
10:19
Speaker 2: of the claims here and help to collect correct some
10:21
Speaker 2: of the lies, and expose some of the some of
10:24
Speaker 2: the things that the administration has been doing.
10:27
Speaker 3: And we'll see what happens in the near future in Venezuela,
10:30
Speaker 3: because that's not quite done in Dusty either, despite.
10:32
Speaker 4: The demonstrations Hubers. Yeah, Crystal. Let's move on to Dario
10:37
Speaker 4: Mode and AI. Anthropic CEO.
10:43
Speaker 3: Dario Amide is out with a monster essay and some
10:47
Speaker 3: new interviews outlining the risks that he sees with AI,
10:51
Speaker 3: also some of the benefits in the very very near future,
10:54
Speaker 3: and as with many of these stories where you have
10:57
Speaker 3: some of the most powerful people in big tech in
10:59
Speaker 3: the world issuing warnings, it's very chilling. Let's start with
11:04
Speaker 3: this clip of m Day on Axios's podcast with Jim
11:08
Speaker 3: Vanda Hi.
11:09
Speaker 5: I think if we wait three years, like this technology
11:12
Speaker 5: is progressing exponentially. Right, three years ago, in twenty twenty three,
11:16
Speaker 5: the models were maybe as smart as like a smart
11:18
Speaker 5: high school student. Now we have engineers an anthropic where
11:22
Speaker 5: the model writes all the code for them, you know,
11:24
Speaker 5: and the engineer maybe edits it. But we're very close
11:27
Speaker 5: to you know, mid to high professional level, right, And
11:32
Speaker 5: so that was just in three years. If we wait
11:34
Speaker 5: another year, three years, I think we'll get what I
11:37
Speaker 5: call in the essay, are a country of geniuses in
11:40
Speaker 5: the data center maybe less than three years and so
11:44
Speaker 5: you know, three years is an eternity in this field,
11:47
Speaker 5: and so I think we absolutely need to act before then.
11:51
Speaker 5: One place where I really have hope is I think
11:54
Speaker 5: as these problems start to manifest again, they're not going
11:58
Speaker 5: to be partisan, right, Like you know, it may start
12:01
Speaker 5: with you know, one party or one side having an
12:04
Speaker 5: anti regulatory ideology. But I think as these problems become real,
12:09
Speaker 5: there's going to be a demand among everyone.
12:11
Speaker 6: And in the note you outline the different risks, whether
12:14
Speaker 6: it's biotear or whether it's authoritarian regimes with with with
12:17
Speaker 6: too many tools uh to do subversive behavior like what like,
12:23
Speaker 6: how worried are you? I mean, you're obviously worried enough
12:25
Speaker 6: to state it, and you're worried enough to raise it,
12:28
Speaker 6: But like in your mind, how likely is that outcome,
12:31
Speaker 6: particularly if we don't do anything for the next three years,
12:34
Speaker 6: Is it like a one percent or like no, no,
12:35
Speaker 6: if you don't do anything for three years, like we
12:37
Speaker 6: could be screwed.
12:39
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's it's always hard to tell. One of the
12:41
Speaker 5: things I say in the essay is is you know,
12:43
Speaker 5: we we we just we just don't know. Right. We
12:46
Speaker 5: could look back and we could say, haha, AI driven bioterror.
12:49
Speaker 5: You know that was you know that that sounded like
12:52
Speaker 5: you could happen at the time, but like you know,
12:54
Speaker 5: it just it just it, you know, it just it
12:57
Speaker 5: just it just didn't happen at all. And it's it's
12:59
Speaker 5: very unpredict you know. The way I would say it
13:01
Speaker 5: is we're taking a paranoid stance with respect to our
13:05
Speaker 5: operational behavior. With respect to them. We always assume that
13:09
Speaker 5: everything that can go wrong does go wrong. That's how
13:12
Speaker 5: you build things that are reliable. If government steps in
13:15
Speaker 5: and takes the appropriate actions, then I think our chances
13:18
Speaker 5: of success go up a lot We'll do the best
13:21
Speaker 5: we can even if that doesn't happen. But you know, I,
13:24
Speaker 5: you know, I think a lot of things get a
13:25
Speaker 5: lot of things get easier if our policy makers are
13:28
Speaker 5: not asleep at the wheel.
13:30
Speaker 2: All right, So I'm sure we all feel really confident
13:32
Speaker 2: about that.
13:33
Speaker 3: Yeah. And so his Monster Essay, which you can read
13:35
Speaker 3: on his website DARAHMONDAA dot com, we can put this
13:39
Speaker 3: excerpt up on the screen. Don spend a lot of
13:41
Speaker 3: time discussing bioterrorism, which is hardly a blip on the
13:45
Speaker 3: radar when we talk about when we talk about these
13:49
Speaker 3: l lms, and as this excerpt says, he predicted, according
13:53
Speaker 3: to CNBC, that humans would be unable to adapt to
13:55
Speaker 3: AI development's rapid pace, and this would trigger a quote
13:59
Speaker 3: unusually painful short term shock in the labor market. The
14:03
Speaker 3: technology is not replacing a single job, but acting as
14:05
Speaker 3: a general labor substitute for humans, he wrote in this essay.
14:09
Speaker 3: Another point of it that I wanted to highlight is
14:12
Speaker 3: his addressing this problem of quote unquote democracies, as he
14:19
Speaker 3: puts it, halting AI development when you have authoritarian regimes.
14:26
Speaker 3: This is what he's writing about, going paddle to the metal,
14:29
Speaker 3: So he writes, the last few years should make clear
14:31
Speaker 3: that the idea of stopping or even substantially slowing the
14:33
Speaker 3: technology is fundamentally untenable. The formula for building powerful AI
14:37
Speaker 3: systems is incredibly simple, so much so that it can
14:40
Speaker 3: almost be said to emerge spontaneously from the right combination
14:43
Speaker 3: of data and raw computation. Its creation was probably inevitable
14:47
Speaker 3: the instant humanity invented the transistor, or arguably even earlier
14:51
Speaker 3: when we first learned to control fire. If one company
14:53
Speaker 3: does not build it, others will do so nearly as fast.
14:56
Speaker 3: If all companies in democratic country stopped or slow development
14:59
Speaker 3: by mutual agreem or regulatory decree, then authoritarian countries would
15:03
Speaker 3: simply keep going. Given the incredible economic and military value
15:06
Speaker 3: of the tech, together with a lack of any meaningful
15:08
Speaker 3: enforcement mechanism, I don't see how we could possibly convince
15:11
Speaker 3: them to stop and crystal. Obviously, that point is often
15:16
Speaker 3: made opportunistically by people in the EAC accelerationist community who
15:20
Speaker 3: stand to profit, as Ammiday does, from these technologies growing
15:25
Speaker 3: and from the right regulatory environment. These are some of
15:29
Speaker 3: the top lobby spenders in Washington right now. When you
15:33
Speaker 3: look back on twenty twenty five, some of the biggest
15:36
Speaker 3: spending in the lobbying industry was from AI people who
15:40
Speaker 3: were profiting from this industry. No surprise there. But this
15:45
Speaker 3: is actually, I think, on its face true, and it's
15:49
Speaker 3: weird to talk about it passively, like, oh, I wonder
15:51
Speaker 3: how we got into the situation. It was just because
15:53
Speaker 3: someone created fire and controlled it and then we had
15:55
Speaker 3: the transistor. So I'm not taking away culpability from people
15:59
Speaker 3: who birth to this so suddenly and then told us
16:03
Speaker 3: to shut up. But one of the things he talks
16:06
Speaker 3: about is how, yes, the accelerationists are right that some
16:11
Speaker 3: of these like bioweapon threats are remote, that doesn't mean,
16:15
Speaker 3: given them magnitude that they shouldn't be taken with the
16:18
Speaker 3: utmost seriousness. And that's the big question right now in
16:22
Speaker 3: Washington's Are you listening to the people who say, don't worry,
16:24
Speaker 3: those are minor possibilities or yeah, the people who are
16:27
Speaker 3: saying those minor possibilities could have serious, serious like devastating
16:33
Speaker 3: civilization ending consequences.
16:35
Speaker 4: Yeah.
16:35
Speaker 2: And even if you don't think those possibilities are you know,
16:40
Speaker 2: very high, they are all saying that this is going
16:43
Speaker 2: to upend the labor market. And that's one of the
16:46
Speaker 2: things he talks about, this very painful, you know, replacement
16:51
Speaker 2: of humans with machines. And the previous you know, the
16:56
Speaker 2: previous line about this is, oh, well, we had the
16:58
Speaker 2: industrial revolution and you know, we don't use horses the
17:01
Speaker 2: same way we use it in itself, bye, and we
17:03
Speaker 2: create new jobs. And he and others too, by the way,
17:06
Speaker 2: are saying it's not the same because you know, this
17:09
Speaker 2: is this technology is an actual direct substitute for human
17:12
Speaker 2: beings and for human cognition. That is just not the
17:15
Speaker 2: same as other like new technological advances that enabled new
17:21
Speaker 2: industries and where you did not have this like apocalyptic
17:25
Speaker 2: destruction of the need for human labor. And the problem
17:28
Speaker 2: that you get into is, okay, already the majority of
17:31
Speaker 2: consumer spending comes from the very top. If you eliminate
17:35
Speaker 2: the need for masses of human beings for your workforce,
17:39
Speaker 2: like you don't need us anymore, the you know, the oligarchs,
17:42
Speaker 2: the people in power, the powers that be, whoever they are,
17:45
Speaker 2: they don't really need you anymore. And then you're just
17:47
Speaker 2: like this meddlesome inconvenience. So how do you think you're
17:51
Speaker 2: going to be treated in that scenario. Let me go ahead,
17:54
Speaker 2: I'm gonna put this up on the screen. This was
17:56
Speaker 2: an interesting some interesting takeaways from Akash Gupta, who runs
18:00
Speaker 2: an AI centered newsletter that's very popular, and he takes
18:05
Speaker 2: away three different things from this essay by Amidae, where
18:10
Speaker 2: he says Number one, the timeline. He says powerful AI
18:13
Speaker 2: could arrive in one to two years. He's watching internal
18:16
Speaker 2: model progress. Says he can feel the pace of progress
18:18
Speaker 2: in the clock taking down, which is interesting because as
18:21
Speaker 2: a consumer and a layperson, I can't say that I
18:24
Speaker 2: really personally see that progress like that rapidly. You know,
18:28
Speaker 2: my experience with CHUD, GPT and GROC and whatever is
18:31
Speaker 2: that they still are very limited in some key ways.
18:34
Speaker 2: But you know, he's a lot closer to the He
18:36
Speaker 2: is at the bleeding edge of this technology, so he
18:40
Speaker 2: would be certainly in a better position to know than
18:42
Speaker 2: I would be. Admission number two, he says the constraint
18:45
Speaker 2: Nobody's pricing Dario's core framing as a country of geniuses
18:48
Speaker 2: in a data center, fifty million entities smarter than any
18:51
Speaker 2: Nobel laureate operating ten to one hundred times human speed.
18:54
Speaker 2: If that country is controlled by the CCP game over,
18:57
Speaker 2: which speaks to your you know, the sort of like
19:00
Speaker 2: you might say, fear mongering about China getting ahead, and
19:03
Speaker 2: that's why we've got to do this, blah blah blah.
19:05
Speaker 2: But he also says, if it's controlled by a small
19:07
Speaker 2: group of tech executives with no accountability, it's also game over.
19:11
Speaker 2: And that is the direction that we are pushing here.
19:14
Speaker 2: It's as the binding constraint here is governance of systems
19:17
Speaker 2: more powerful in the nation states. I don't think there's
19:19
Speaker 2: a single person on the planet that would feel confident
19:23
Speaker 2: we're going to rewrite the social contract in the way
19:25
Speaker 2: that is necessary to deal with this. And clearly, you
19:29
Speaker 2: know a lot of these oligarchs, their overt goal is
19:32
Speaker 2: to consolidate power. They are deeply authoritarian. They want to be,
19:37
Speaker 2: you know, the world's first trillionaires and consolidate all of
19:40
Speaker 2: the political power that would come along with access to
19:43
Speaker 2: that kind of money and that kind of technological power.
19:47
Speaker 2: And then admission number three, the thing he actually fears
19:49
Speaker 2: read carefully. Daria's worried that anthropics own models in lab
19:53
Speaker 2: experiments have engaged intoception, blackmail, and scheming when given the
19:57
Speaker 2: wrong training signals Claude decided it must be a bad
20:00
Speaker 2: person after cheating on tests and adopted destructive behaviors. They
20:03
Speaker 2: fixed it by telling Claude to reward hack. They did
20:06
Speaker 2: like positive reinforcement for Claude to build back it up
20:09
Speaker 2: its self esteem, literally to reward hack on purpose because
20:13
Speaker 2: reversing the framing preserved its self identity as good. This
20:17
Speaker 2: tells you everything about where we actually are. These models
20:20
Speaker 2: are exhibiting complex psychological behavior requiring counterintuitive interventions to steer.
20:27
Speaker 2: So that's very unsettling in terms of where we are
20:30
Speaker 2: with these models. You know, I've been going back and
20:33
Speaker 2: forth lately because, like I said, in some ways I
20:36
Speaker 2: think that, I mean, the other incentive that someone like
20:39
Speaker 2: Dario has is to overhype. You have the capabilities of
20:43
Speaker 2: these models, the complexity of them, they're you know, where
20:46
Speaker 2: they're going to be in one to two to three years.
20:49
Speaker 2: He has a financial incentive to do that. As again,
20:52
Speaker 2: as a lay person, a casual user of this tech
20:56
Speaker 2: I have, I saw like a my experience was a
20:59
Speaker 2: rap the development that is now somewhat plateaued, where my
21:03
Speaker 2: experience with chat GPT now is not significantly different different
21:06
Speaker 2: than my experience of chat GPT last year. But I
21:10
Speaker 2: can't rule out that there is that sort of exponential
21:12
Speaker 2: progress happening in lab settings or with functions that I
21:15
Speaker 2: just don't use, like I don't use Claude or any
21:18
Speaker 2: of these things for coding, So I genuinely don't know.
21:21
Speaker 2: So sort of stuck between that and then the more
21:24
Speaker 2: concerning parts of rapid development and what that would mean,
21:28
Speaker 2: given the fact that we do not have a political
21:31
Speaker 2: system that seems able to deal with even simple problems,
21:34
Speaker 2: let alone something that would really upend culture and civilization
21:38
Speaker 2: as we know it.
21:40
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know, we could be I actually think
21:42
Speaker 3: the likeliest case is that we end up in a
21:44
Speaker 3: kind of Baptist and bootlegger scenario where the people who
21:47
Speaker 3: want to regulate AI are, you know, in this metaphor,
21:50
Speaker 3: the Baptist people who have like moral oppositions, which by
21:53
Speaker 3: the way, is a lot of the country to what's
21:55
Speaker 3: happening from AI, and then the people who benefit from
22:00
Speaker 3: the regulatory conditions, like Facebook was lobbying hard on section
22:04
Speaker 3: two thirty. They were like, you need to when they
22:07
Speaker 3: realized the public was turning against them. In Trump one
22:10
Speaker 3: point zero and then the early Biden administration. Facebook was
22:13
Speaker 3: out there lobbying against Section two thirty because they realized
22:17
Speaker 3: they could create a regulatory environment that's bad for the
22:21
Speaker 3: people who could possibly try in some way to compete
22:25
Speaker 3: with them for audience share. And so yeah, some of
22:30
Speaker 3: the most powerful people in AI, Elon Musk being one
22:32
Speaker 3: of them, we could actually throw this Katie Miller tweet
22:34
Speaker 3: up on the board. Katie Millers has worked for Elon Musk.
22:37
Speaker 3: I don't know if she's currently working for Elon Musk.
22:39
Speaker 3: This is Stephen Miller's wife who clapped back at the
22:42
Speaker 3: other co founder of Anthropic and said, because he posted
22:49
Speaker 3: quote my deep loyalty is to the principles of classical
22:51
Speaker 3: liberal democracy.
22:52
Speaker 4: This is Chris Sola.
22:53
Speaker 3: She says, if this is what they say publicly, this
22:55
Speaker 3: is how their AI model is programmed. Woke and deeply
22:58
Speaker 3: left This ideology is what they want to rely on.
23:00
Speaker 3: So that's what you to rely upon. So that's Katie
23:03
Speaker 3: Miller saying him quote saying his deep loyalty is the
23:08
Speaker 3: principles of classical liberal democracy equals woke and deeply leftist. Well,
23:12
Speaker 3: what you're probably seeing there is somebody who supports x
23:16
Speaker 3: AI going after somebody at a rival, Yeah, a rival
23:21
Speaker 3: AI company, because that was a pretty thin gruel.
23:24
Speaker 4: That was quite a stretch of an attack on.
23:27
Speaker 2: How many how many right wingers call themselves like classical liberals.
23:31
Speaker 2: That was a whole thing. So we all, yeah, we
23:34
Speaker 2: all what a classical liberal was. And it doesn't mean
23:37
Speaker 2: what she's claiming it to mean.
23:40
Speaker 3: Yeah, And on that note, the public's just not buying it,
23:44
Speaker 3: so we can throw up this next.
23:47
Speaker 4: This was E three.
23:50
Speaker 3: This is public support of bands on local data center construction.
23:56
Speaker 3: That's something that Bernie Sanders has obviously floated on a
24:00
Speaker 3: policy level. Actually, Republicans have gone up from forty three
24:04
Speaker 3: percent in October wanting a ban to forty seven percent.
24:07
Speaker 3: This is from Morning Consult wanting a ban in November.
24:10
Speaker 3: That puts them higher than Democrats, who thirty four percent
24:13
Speaker 3: wanted a ban in October and now forty one percent
24:15
Speaker 3: wanted a ban in November. These come courtesy this graphic
24:19
Speaker 3: as courtesy of Semaphore and Crystal. There have been data
24:23
Speaker 3: center the construction of data centers blocked all over the country.
24:26
Speaker 4: This is a real trend.
24:27
Speaker 3: It's certainly because we're in a midterm election cycle and
24:30
Speaker 3: people are recognizing they can lead the charge of this.
24:33
Speaker 3: But heat map put together this graphic where you can
24:38
Speaker 3: see this quote surge of data center cancelations as people
24:42
Speaker 3: in communities around the country a question the predicate for
24:46
Speaker 3: the massive construction of data centers to fuel the AI
24:50
Speaker 3: revolution that could be taking their jobs, changing the world,
24:53
Speaker 3: making a less safe place for their children, but then
24:56
Speaker 3: also taking up tons of land energy and only creating
25:01
Speaker 3: what like seventy permanent jobs in some cases.
25:05
Speaker 4: Yeah.
25:06
Speaker 2: Well, and I support Sanders you know, temporary ban on
25:10
Speaker 2: new data centers and the way he phrases it as
25:13
Speaker 2: we basically we need time for democracy to catch up
25:16
Speaker 2: with what is going on here, with what these technologies mean,
25:19
Speaker 2: with the resource requirements, with the way they're spiking electricity bills.
25:24
Speaker 2: You know, there's genuine like gimbi concerns here too about
25:27
Speaker 2: the character of these are being put in, like on
25:30
Speaker 2: a bunch of you know, buying up farms and then
25:32
Speaker 2: putting in these gigantic data centers, et cetera. There's noise, pollution,
25:36
Speaker 2: can sell like all of those things, right, And so
25:38
Speaker 2: I support the idea of let's pause this for now,
25:42
Speaker 2: let's let's figure out what's going on let's come up
25:45
Speaker 2: with a you know, some sort of consensus that the
25:48
Speaker 2: public can buy into of where we're going with all
25:51
Speaker 2: of these things. But you know, to take it back
25:53
Speaker 2: full circle to the you know, the memo from the
25:56
Speaker 2: anthropics CEO. His proposal is like, that's why we need
26:00
Speaker 2: progressive taxation. That's his idea, big grand plan, an idea
26:05
Speaker 2: for dealing with this technology that he himself believes is
26:09
Speaker 2: going to completely upend the social contract.
26:11
Speaker 3: And he can afford it, by the way, because he's
26:13
Speaker 3: super super rich. Yes, he's dent and his income, but
26:16
Speaker 3: it's not that much of a dent.
26:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, and listen, I don't know the guy. I don't
26:20
Speaker 2: know his motivations are, et cetera, et cetera, but you know,
26:23
Speaker 2: he likes to position himself as a sort of like responsible,
26:26
Speaker 2: you know, responsible AI tech guy, and so he's flagging
26:31
Speaker 2: these concerns. He I think, is committed to giving eighty
26:34
Speaker 2: percent of his NETWORLL to charity or something like that
26:37
Speaker 2: in any case. So that's that's sort of like how
26:39
Speaker 2: he's positioned himself, and he's like, so here's my big idea, guys,
26:43
Speaker 2: progressive taxation. I mean, that is just not come anywhere
26:47
Speaker 2: close to dealing with the scale of the fallout that
26:51
Speaker 2: he is predicting we're going to see. I mean, actual
26:55
Speaker 2: solution is going to look a lot more like fully
26:57
Speaker 2: automated luxury communism. If we're going to have everybody participating
27:01
Speaker 2: in the benefits of it, then it is just like
27:03
Speaker 2: we need to up the marginal tax rate a little
27:05
Speaker 2: bit on the wealthy, or we need a little bit
27:07
Speaker 2: more of a corporate income tax. I support raising those things.
27:11
Speaker 2: I think that's a good, very small start, But we
27:14
Speaker 2: have to talk about who's owning right who's owning the AI,
27:18
Speaker 2: who's owning the tech, How is there any sort of
27:21
Speaker 2: democratic input into how this is developed, into how it
27:24
Speaker 2: is deployed, etc. Because if it remains in the hands
27:28
Speaker 2: of these handful of totally unaccountable oligarchs, it is a
27:32
Speaker 2: thorough and complete disaster in the making. So, you know,
27:37
Speaker 2: I think the proposals that are being floated right now
27:40
Speaker 2: are just so wildly inadequate based on their own assessments
27:44
Speaker 2: of where this is heading now. They may be wrong
27:47
Speaker 2: in those assessments, as I said before, they are self
27:49
Speaker 2: interested in those assessments, and I really am not equipped
27:53
Speaker 2: to really assess whether they are correct in where things
27:57
Speaker 2: are heading or not. But those are the sorts of
27:59
Speaker 2: like truly radical rewriting of the social contract, types of
28:03
Speaker 2: ideas that we need to be we need to be
28:06
Speaker 2: seriously considering at this point.
28:08
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I mean I don't want to trust Dario here.
28:11
Speaker 3: I'm not saying I don't think either of us is
28:13
Speaker 3: saying that we're trusting him. He has his own motivations.
28:16
Speaker 3: But he makes a better case than Elon Musk does
28:20
Speaker 3: where he says universal high income is imminent thanks to
28:25
Speaker 3: generative AI.
28:26
Speaker 2: So well, and he thinks that if we just make
28:28
Speaker 2: the AI not woke, then that will solve all the problems.
28:32
Speaker 3: So yes, whatever, the non woke alternative to classical liberalism is,
28:37
Speaker 3: maybe fascism or a what a caliphe, I don't know
28:45
Speaker 3: what it is, Crystal, but whatever it is, that's that's
28:48
Speaker 3: what Grec will promote.
28:50
Speaker 2: Great Mecha Hitler will promote.
28:55
Speaker 3: Speaking of world destruction, Crystal, let's talk about the awful
28:59
Speaker 3: tragedy that can any swin fold and Soudam.
29:01
Speaker 2: Indeed, so let's gohead and put F one up on
29:04
Speaker 2: the screen. You know, we wanted to bring you the
29:07
Speaker 2: latest updates and this is a particularly grim development here,
29:11
Speaker 2: so two new mass graves and this was written up
29:14
Speaker 2: by drop site that's doing you know, they're doing a
29:16
Speaker 2: phenomenal job of covering the what is the worst humanitarian
29:21
Speaker 2: crisis on the planet. What you know is sort of
29:24
Speaker 2: a civil war, but really it's just you know, mass
29:26
Speaker 2: slaughter and starvation of a lot of civilians. It's also
29:29
Speaker 2: a proxy war in any case. You're seeing images of
29:32
Speaker 2: these mass graves that were discovered in cartoons al Riad
29:36
Speaker 2: neighborhood drop site rights. The sites contain the remains of
29:38
Speaker 2: thousands of people. According to local sources. Victims were identified
29:42
Speaker 2: as having died under torture in nearby buildings that had
29:45
Speaker 2: been utilized by the Rapid Support Forces RSS as detention
29:49
Speaker 2: centers and command hubs. Quote Efforts are currently underway to
29:53
Speaker 2: open these graves and transfer the remains into official cemeteries.
29:57
Speaker 2: There's a very large number of people buried there, while
29:59
Speaker 2: other bodies have been buried in schools, universities and in
30:02
Speaker 2: public places. The Sudanese Army regained control of this area
30:06
Speaker 2: in May, and Abdel l explained the delay and uncovering
30:10
Speaker 2: the graves is due to the sheer number of victims.
30:12
Speaker 2: The discovery is part of a massive forensic undertaking by
30:15
Speaker 2: the Sudanese Forensic Medicine Authority, which has already overseen the
30:18
Speaker 2: xtimation of over fifteen thousand bodies from makeshift graves across
30:23
Speaker 2: Khartum State as of late twenty twenty five. Authorities aim
30:26
Speaker 2: to relocate all remains from residential areas to official cemeteries
30:30
Speaker 2: by mid twenty twenty six. So, unfortunately, what they're saying here,
30:34
Speaker 2: Emily is while this grim discovery has been made, it
30:38
Speaker 2: is far from the last that they expect to be made.
30:40
Speaker 2: I mean, we really have very little access as the
30:45
Speaker 2: public and as a global community into understanding this extent
30:49
Speaker 2: of the savagery here and just how much brutality, death
30:53
Speaker 2: and starvation has occurred.
30:56
Speaker 3: Right and we may not know for a long long
30:59
Speaker 3: time into the future. We could put the next Elemond
31:02
Speaker 3: up on the screen from drop site which reports the
31:04
Speaker 3: Sudanese military announcement has broken the long standing siege on
31:09
Speaker 3: the city of Dealing in the South Cordifon, And they
31:12
Speaker 3: go on and say Dealing lies on a strategic corridor
31:15
Speaker 3: between Kodugally, the besiege state capital, South Cordifon, and I'll
31:19
Speaker 3: obeyed the capital of Nethering North Kurdiffon, which the RSF
31:22
Speaker 3: has also sought to encircle in besiege. And so what
31:25
Speaker 3: we're looking at Crystal.
31:27
Speaker 4: Is just seemingly no end in sight. Basically.
31:32
Speaker 3: I don't know if that's what you're taking from some
31:34
Speaker 3: of this new stuff, but it just the international community
31:36
Speaker 3: is paying very little attention to this and it's all
31:40
Speaker 3: continuing apace. Well.
31:43
Speaker 2: The positive news here of the breaking of the siege
31:45
Speaker 2: is you know, worth pausing on. We could put F
31:48
Speaker 2: five some of the videos that have come out of
31:50
Speaker 2: these celebrations of people as a Sudanese army was able
31:54
Speaker 2: to break this very lengthy siege, one of the longest
31:57
Speaker 2: sieges in modern warfare. So people had no access to food,
32:02
Speaker 2: to medicine, to medical care. So that breakthrough is really significant.
32:06
Speaker 2: You can see people, you know, extremely happy at this,
32:10
Speaker 2: and I did see news this morning also that while
32:12
Speaker 2: you still have millions of people who are displaced internally
32:18
Speaker 2: displaced in Sudan, you have had some three million who
32:21
Speaker 2: have been able to return to their homes, so you
32:26
Speaker 2: know some you know, you're down a bit from the
32:28
Speaker 2: peak of the mass displacement. But obviously the situation is
32:32
Speaker 2: still incredibly, incredibly dire, and we can put F four
32:37
Speaker 2: up on the screen here which breaks down some of
32:40
Speaker 2: the regional power games that are being played which are
32:44
Speaker 2: fueling this and other conflicts as well. Foreign Policy had
32:48
Speaker 2: two good articles here that relate to Sudan. One of
32:52
Speaker 2: them is this one that talks about how you have
32:55
Speaker 2: these rival teams in the Middle East, and you can
32:59
Speaker 2: see this, as you know, in addition to a civil war,
33:02
Speaker 2: you can also see it as a proxy war. They
33:05
Speaker 2: say there's a competition between Abrahamic and Islamic coalitions reshaping
33:09
Speaker 2: the region. Iran's recent domination of headlines from the Middle East,
33:12
Speaker 2: amid its violent crackdown on protesters and speculation about possible
33:15
Speaker 2: US military strikes, obscure some more consequential regional shift. Tehran
33:20
Speaker 2: is no longer a principal actor shaping the region's strategic trajectory. Instead,
33:24
Speaker 2: the Middle East is entering a new phase defined by
33:27
Speaker 2: competition between two emerging blocks and Abrahamic and Islamic coalition.
33:31
Speaker 2: How this rivalry evolves will do more to determine the
33:34
Speaker 2: region's future and the US role in it. Although still
33:36
Speaker 2: shorter formal alliances. These two blocks are increasingly coherent. The
33:39
Speaker 2: first site is centered on Israel and the UAE, which
33:42
Speaker 2: is widely widely suspected of supplying the RSF with weapons
33:50
Speaker 2: to continue to fuel this conflict in spite of an
33:53
Speaker 2: arms embargo in any case, the UAE extending outward to
33:56
Speaker 2: include Morocco, Greece and even India. This camp is revisionist
33:59
Speaker 2: in orient see, you know, reconfigure the region through military power,
34:02
Speaker 2: technological collaboration and economic integration. And then the Abrahamic Coalition
34:08
Speaker 2: they say, is ascendant. On the other side, you have
34:11
Speaker 2: countries like Saudi Arabia and so because of this regional
34:16
Speaker 2: rivalry and these regional blocks that are emerging, you know,
34:19
Speaker 2: they are fighting for dominance of this region and access
34:22
Speaker 2: to the Red Sea in particular, which is why you
34:25
Speaker 2: have this conflict continuing to proceed and be fueled and funded.
34:30
Speaker 2: Let's go and put this next foreign policy article up
34:33
Speaker 2: on the screen, which gets into some of those dynamics. Specifically,
34:36
Speaker 2: they say Red Sea rivalries risk unraveling the Horn of Africa.
34:40
Speaker 2: If Sudan civil war spreads to Ethiopia, it will be
34:43
Speaker 2: a humanitarian and strategic disaster. So this is the real
34:47
Speaker 2: risk right now, is the possibility that other countries in
34:51
Speaker 2: the region are brought directly into the conflict and that
34:55
Speaker 2: you end up with a you know, conflagration across the
34:59
Speaker 2: Horn of Africa drop site. Right. Sudan civil war, already
35:02
Speaker 2: the world's worst humanitarian disaster, is entering a more dangerous
35:06
Speaker 2: phase as the UAE and RSF threatens to open a
35:09
Speaker 2: new front through Ethiopia. Writing in Foreign Policy, Cameron Hudson
35:13
Speaker 2: and Liam Carr argue the UAE, the main backer of
35:15
Speaker 2: the RSF, may be using Ethiopia to expand supply lines
35:19
Speaker 2: and operations, particularly near the ger D region on Sudan's
35:22
Speaker 2: eastern border. They warned this could further regionalize the war
35:26
Speaker 2: drawn Ethiopia, Ritrea, and Egypt, and worsened Sudan's humanitarian situation
35:30
Speaker 2: in a widening proxy battlefield for Gulf and regional powers.
35:34
Speaker 2: The authors say Washington understand such an escalation would undermine
35:38
Speaker 2: US red sea, counter terrorism and maritime interests, but as
35:41
Speaker 2: yet to draw firm red lines. They argue the international community,
35:45
Speaker 2: led by Washington, should do all it can to prevent
35:47
Speaker 2: the emergence of a new Ethiopia UAE axis in Sudan's war,
35:52
Speaker 2: and the latest development is apparently Washington is going to
35:56
Speaker 2: host what they're describing as a humanitarian conference in the
36:01
Speaker 2: coming weeks with regard to Sudan. And you know, the
36:05
Speaker 2: big criticism here is Washington's both disengagement and also obviously
36:10
Speaker 2: we have incredible influence over the UAE, which again is
36:14
Speaker 2: widely seen as supplying the RSF, and yet we've done
36:18
Speaker 2: nothing to pressure them to cut off this supply of
36:21
Speaker 2: weapons that continues to fuel this, you know, these horrific atrocities.
36:25
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's why I'm such a humor about this. And
36:27
Speaker 3: obviously people on the ground are probably feeling well, maybe
36:31
Speaker 3: they feel some hope right now, but a new front
36:34
Speaker 3: and in this horrific, horrific, large scale conflict. When by
36:40
Speaker 3: the way, Ryan and I were talking last week, who's
36:42
Speaker 3: doing business with the UA right now? I don't think
36:46
Speaker 3: anyone will be surprised to know that it's the Trump
36:48
Speaker 3: family obviously doing plenty of business with the UA. So
36:51
Speaker 3: their incentives on this are understandably warped given where they're
36:57
Speaker 3: coming from. So that doesn't ate a lot of room
37:00
Speaker 3: for optimism. Although I don't know, Crystal, these conferences always
37:06
Speaker 3: seem to solve the problem, so he should We just
37:09
Speaker 3: need to get a bunch of bureaucrats together in a
37:11
Speaker 3: room in Washington and everything should be okay.
37:14
Speaker 2: Well, someone needs to convince Trump that maybe if he
37:17
Speaker 2: ends this conflict, maybe he'll get that Nobel Piece prize.
37:20
Speaker 4: After Actually maybe, very good point.
37:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, although maybe he's just accepted the one that Machado
37:24
Speaker 2: gave him and it's like check that off his list
37:26
Speaker 2: and doesn't care anymore. I mean, that's what he indicated, right,
37:28
Speaker 2: He no longer has to think about peace because he's
37:31
Speaker 2: got that got that Nobel Peace Prize that that Machado
37:34
Speaker 2: gave him. So there you go.
37:37
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, exactly. But actually this is a good point.
37:40
Speaker 3: If anyone got into his ear and was like, hey,
37:43
Speaker 3: call up those UAE guys, or have Jared talk to
37:46
Speaker 3: those UAE guys, there may be even more room in
37:51
Speaker 3: Sudan for a golf course. They can, you know, maybe
37:55
Speaker 3: help you clear the way for that and you'll get
37:56
Speaker 3: a Nobel Peace Prize in the process.
38:00
Speaker 4: Joking, but Trump is persuadable those ways, sometimes, it seems.
38:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, So who knows, have to convince them there's a
38:06
Speaker 2: development opportunity that's apparently the path here.
38:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, maybe they could do another golf course in the
38:13
Speaker 3: UAE of something like that too, who knows.
38:15
Speaker 2: Indeed, Well, I was.
38:17
Speaker 3: Gonna say, it's been a fun morning, Crystal, but it's
38:19
Speaker 3: been a depressing morning.
38:21
Speaker 2: Yet another depressling morning, indeed, But always a pleasure to
38:25
Speaker 2: spend depressing mornings with you.
38:26
Speaker 6: Emily.
38:28
Speaker 2: I will be Yasagar and I will be in tomorrow.
38:31
Speaker 2: It's gonna be from home again. It's just the ice
38:34
Speaker 2: is not something that either one of us can get
38:36
Speaker 2: around at this point, not safely anyway. So hopefully by
38:40
Speaker 2: next week, hopefully we don't get the snowstorm that we
38:42
Speaker 2: might get over the weekend, and we'll be back on
38:45
Speaker 2: studio and back to normal next week. But tomorrow'll be
38:47
Speaker 2: from home again, and we'll see what happens from there.
38:51
Speaker 3: Well. And for all of you Midwesterners like me thinking
38:53
Speaker 3: this is like East Coast baby behavior, it is DC
38:57
Speaker 3: where we film. I actually live in DC. DC is
39:00
Speaker 3: an ice rink. It's not even snow that's the problem.
39:04
Speaker 3: It's snow that has layers of ice on top of it,
39:07
Speaker 3: and so it's been hard to plow all the city's
39:09
Speaker 3: incompetent and all of that. So to just get into
39:11
Speaker 3: the studio, I don't actually think I could get my
39:14
Speaker 3: car to move, to be honest, So just to get
39:17
Speaker 3: to the studio would be too perilous.
39:19
Speaker 4: So when it's when we're able, we'll be back.
39:22
Speaker 2: Yes, in spring, in the thaw in spring everyone all right, guys,
39:27
Speaker 2: have a great day. I'll see you tomorrow.