Latest / AG Bull / Brian Grete Commstock | Ag Squawk 7/20/2026

Transcript

Brian Grete Commstock | Ag Squawk 7/20/2026 · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: When we closed up shop on Friday, I thought I had it figured.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: I guess I was a little pessimistic about cattle, about hums, about soybeans, about corn.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I'm happy to be wrong on all those accounts.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: My guest today will help me sort out how this could possibly have happened.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: From behind the big blue bodacious microphone of Ag Bull, your pal Davis Michelson, the handsome newsman here with you.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I thought I had it all figured out.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: Cattle was going to keep going lower.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: Soybeans were going to give up the 12 handle.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: That was going to be the end of that.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: And we were going to be down in the dumps today.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: That was not to be the case, y'all.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm I'm very pleased to say so.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: We had a really, really great day.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: I know the good folks at Eggbowl were very, very busy.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: If you if you're not an AgBull subscriber, I would urge you to check out everything that they've got to offer there at Agbol.com, Agbol.com or 855-737 Farm because they've got they've got a knack for this stuff.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: And today was one of those days when you you benefit from having a professional in your corner.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to run down the markets really quick, and then I've got Brian Grady from Comstock to help me sort it out.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: I got in touch with Brian because I'm like, bro, we got to talk about cattle.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: And there were people on Friday who were talking, oh, is the is the bull run over?
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: Is that all she wrote?
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, did you see what happened this week?
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: So we were going to talk cattle, and I was kind of coming from that perspective.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: Cattle shot higher today.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: Soybeans can't be ignored.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_00: Corn hung in there, had a great day.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: There's all kinds of stuff to talk about today.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm really glad that you're here with us on Ag Squawk.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: It's July 20th.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: It's a Monday, Monday, Monday.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: So let's dig into it.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_00: Private exporters reported some sales.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: 264,000 metric tons to China for 2627.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: 110,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown for 2627, and 100,000 metric tons of corn to Columbia for 2627.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: Over to the markets, corn and soybean futures were higher at the start of the day session, with soybeans quickly rising by double digits.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, wheat futures opened with a softer tone.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: After last week's dismal price pressure, feeder cattle sprang sharply higher to start the day today with fat cattle higher as well.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: Lean hogs gained around 50 cents in most contracts by mid-morning.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: Now I've been watching the markets on plus 500.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: We use plus 500 T4 software every single day for real-time quotes and much, much more.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: Plus 500 T4 software, that's plus 500.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: Continuing with the markets, we rounded into the lunch hour.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_00: Corn and soybeans both still working steadily higher alongside the cattle complex.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: Nearby lean hog futures at that point began to falter slightly.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_00: Novi beans, look out 23.62 and a quarter.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: Meal was higher.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: Soybean oil was lower.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: Onto your winter wheats.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: Let's look at the December, the Chicago down eight and a quarter, 691.5 at the settlement.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: And KC HRW, December 26, down 7.3 quarters, 7.39.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_00: Now over to the livestocks.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: Look out for October fat cattle.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: They're up$2.60 all told today,$2.23.30.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: The October feeders up seven bucks even.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: Looks like$339.82.5.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: And the lean hogs, okay.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_00: So the August held at excuse me,$101.27.5.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: The October and the August were both just slightly lower, but then we get a little further out.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: We're 30 cents higher in the December.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: Uh looking out to the February, 52 and a half higher.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: And the April 27 lean hog contract up 65 cents.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_00: Looking all the way out there, we're at 87.67 and one half at settlement.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, with that, let me bring in Brian Grady from Comstock.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_00: Brian, it's great to have you today.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: Um, for reasons the viewers don't need to worry about, I reached out to you on very short notice in a pinch.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: And uh I really appreciate you being being willing to step in for us today.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: And it turned out to be, I mean, a heck of a day, plenty to talk about today.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the show, buddy.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome back.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: You're our friend.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, thanks for having me on on a big rally day.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, you know, soybeans, corn, cattle, boy, all the things we're gonna talk about were good today.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_01: So thanks.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it felt really good.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: You know, I I want to land at the livestock markets, the cattle in particular.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: I've got some stats on the the performance since the mid-June highs in the cattle and and since the uh same period basically in hogs.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: There's an interesting story there, but first we got to talk about these soybeans, Brian.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: I I just read the quotes.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: The NOVE up 23 and a quarter, uh looking out to the Jan up 23 and a quarter.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, even here at the August, up 21 and a half cents today.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: What got into soybean futures today, brother?
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_01: Well, there was a lot of talk about weather, but really, I mean, soybeans up 20 plus cents, corn up about a nickel.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, if we're in a weather market and it's July 20th, corn would be leading to the upside.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_01: So it wasn't all weather.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_01: We've got Chinese demand news.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_01: You talked about that with more daily sales there to both China and unknown destinations, which in all likelihood is China as well.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_01: We have positive biofuels news on the demand front for both soybeans and soy oil.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_01: And I think it's just kind of a perfect storm.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_01: And it all comes back to money flow, and the funds are really comfortable with long money or money in the long side of the soy complex.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_01: So soybeans, soy meal, soy oil, and soybeans were the big beneficiary of that one today.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_00: Have we moved to another level up technically here?
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: What do the technicals look like in the soybeans after uh after today's upside move?
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so November soybeans didn't make a contract high.
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_01: That was posted way back at the beginning of the contract when it came on on board uh early on and and so years ago.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_01: But during viable trade, where we actually had you know manageable trade in that contract, this is a new move for the high.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_01: And so, for all intents and purposes, it is a contract high, even though it isn't technically.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: So we got a big upside breakout on the charts, looks really strong right now.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_01: You mentioned the$12 level, but we moved above it, and everybody's questioning can we sustain above this level?
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_01: We're not only sustaining, we're pushing out to new highs.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_01: And so I think that that will be something that we need to monitor moving forward, and that's all going to be dictated by that money flow.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_01: So, how long the funds will continue to pump money into the long side of the soybean market and see that as a buying opportunity.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if now is the appropriate time to ask this question or not, but I do have it in in my notes, and maybe it's more of a corn and wheat story than soybeans.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: But the the European heat wave, man, this is this is getting bad over there for them, and there's talk of crops beginning to suffer under the European heat.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm and I'm wondering, as you talk about Chinese demand for soybeans here, when does that European story, if it does, turn into a demand story for US?
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, I I think on the corn side of things, yeah, it it will eventually.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_01: That's down the road, I believe.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_01: We're not going to see that near term.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: And you know that the weather in in Europe, uh, they've as bad as it's been here recently, they've had longer and even more extreme temperatures.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_01: And so it's not really a wheat story, so to speak, somewhat at the tail end of their winter wheat crop, more of a corn story, I think.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_01: And some irreversible damage has been done in some of those areas.
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_01: It was just too hot for too long a period of time, but that's a demand story down the road.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_01: Europe will be in the market for corn and and likely U.S.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_01: corn at some point in time.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_00: And and biofuels on the soybean side, pretty exciting here.
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_00: I I did notice we're just just slightly lower in the soybean oil today, but uh we've we've seen some pretty hot action in the oil, haven't we?
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, absolutely.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_01: And I I think that you know that is probably the big one right now is that we saw the big NOPA crush number, but we saw the huge drawdown in soy oil stocks, despite the soybean crush being stronger than anticipated.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_01: And so there is a bullish demand story there for both soybeans and soy oil.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that that's really contributing to everything, along with the Chinese buying of new crop U.S.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_01: soybeans, and then the weather situation with it looking like the above-normal temperatures will return this weekend and move into early August.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_01: Now, if we get to August and it's still hot, then weather becomes an even greater story for soybeans because you know now they can withstand it.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_01: When they start to to set and and fill pods, then it's it's a bigger deal for soybeans on the weather side.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_00: Uh let's let's go to wheat.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't know if you have any insights on this.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_00: I have none.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_00: So anything that you can offer here, but apparently it's a pretty big deal that the September KC wheat is at a premium to the September Minneapolis wheat there.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_00: Uh looking at the September the KC wheat at 723 and three-quarters, the Minneapolis at 692 and a quarter.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, you got anything for us on that?
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_01: Well, not just that, but spreads are out of whack.
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_01: We've got the the wheat corn spread that's historically wide right now, and and so we got all kinds of spreading action going on, and and that market is is kind of trying to find its identity, so to speak.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_01: So we had the whole Black Sea issues, and and those continue with Russia and Ukraine, but yet we saw the winter wheat markets pull back today.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_01: I think that they've just, you know, nothing changed on the geopolitical front, nothing changed on the production side of things.
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_01: It's just that we had some spreads that were out of whack and and we got some corrections on those today.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_00: All right, all right.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_00: Let's we we might as well take us over to corn.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: We're up about five and a half cents in most contracts there.
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody that I've talked to, I guess I've I've heard of some some rolling and and a little bit of response to the heat that's ongoing here, some concern over the overnight temperatures.
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_00: I can tell you here in Kansas City, it was hot overnight.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_00: We couldn't our bedrooms up on the second floor, and that's probably a mistake.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: You know, it's our own fault.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_00: We just lay there and sweat sometimes.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_00: Last night was one of those nights we get a we get a nickel and a half cent here in the corn to start out the week, Brian.
• 11:21
  SPEAKER_01: Well, like I said before, if we were really in a weather market and really concerned with weather, corn would have performed much better than it did today with soybeans 20 plus cents higher.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_01: And so I think that, yeah, it's a background issue right now.
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_01: We're waiting to see, want to see what USDA does with crop condition ratings, and we'll react to that in all likelihood.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_01: But I think generally speaking, the trade is looking at kind of a trend line number for yield for corn.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_01: And we will get an update on that from USDA in August with the first yield and production estimates.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_01: So we're kind of in a holding pattern.
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_01: The weather is a concern, but it's not a huge concern because crop condition ratings are still high at this point in time.
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_01: If we see an appreciable drop on a week-to-week basis, then the market probably becomes more concerned at that point.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_00: If you're saying we're in a holding pattern on corn for the time being, and we go higher on a day like today, I suppose that we could call it spillover pressure from soybeans, but you know, almost part of me wants to hear that as the path of least resistance for corn is to the upside, even if only slightly so.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_00: Am I pushing it too far, Brian?
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I think corn is going grudgingly higher.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_01: You know, that soybeans definitely had the the influence today.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_01: There's no doubt about that.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_01: There was a weather component, but it was mostly soybeans.
• 12:41
  unknown: Yeah.
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_00: All right, very good.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_00: Anything I want to move into cattle now.
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_00: Anything more that that the viewers need to keep in mind here on corn, soybeans, or wheat at all?
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_00: You did a really great job there.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_00: I just want to make sure we don't miss anything.
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I I think there's you know four things that are in play: weather, geopolitics, demand, and money flow, and all four of those can be highly volatile and highly explosive.
• 13:05
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, expect volatility, big moves up, big moves down, uh, daily price swings, that type of thing.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_01: I we're right in the middle of it with four of those volatile factors all in play.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_00: Wow.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_00: All right, all right.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_00: Exciting times, eh, brother?
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, exciting.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_01: Not not boring.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_01: You know, some days are better than others, obviously, in in those scenarios, and and Monday happened to be a very strong bullish day.
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah, very good.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_00: By the way, Brian Grady from Comstock is is my guest today.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_00: Comstock with two M's C-O-M-M-S-T-O-C-K dot com is where you get more.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_00: Did I get that right, Brian?
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_00: Right on, you betcha.
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_00: Let's let's steer into the cattle yard.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_00: I made myself a little XL spreadsheet here, did some percentages, did a little math today as of Friday, because I was looking at Friday.
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_00: I walked away from Friday, like I said at the top of the show, thinking, man, this is this could be it.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_00: I really don't feel like the fundamentals have changed.
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think there's any more cattle out there than there used to be, but somehow turned a little sour last week.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_00: Since the mid-June highs, I'm looking at the October contracts.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_00: Since the mid-June highs, October fat cattle are down$21.30 as of Friday's close.
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_00: That doesn't include today's, down 8.8%.
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_00: The October feeders since the June 25 high down$35.52.5 for about a net loss of 9.6% lower.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_00: And then October hogs moved in the other direction since a June 16 low by my reckoning.
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_00: 10% higher over the period, up$8.2.5 as of Friday.
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_00: Now, those numbers are no longer valid, Brian, because we had a sharply higher day in the feeder cattle.
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_00: I'm calling it moderately to moderately sharply higher in the uh in the fat cattle.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if we need to talk about all three of these markets at the same time.
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_00: I'd like to start with cattle if we possibly could.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_01: Sure, absolutely.
• 15:13
  SPEAKER_01: You, Davis Michelson, turned the market around because you thought that it was just going to keep going down day after day after day, and we had the sharp losses.
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_01: So when everybody thinks it's it's going to continue to go down, that's typically when you put in lows.
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_01: Now, far too early to call this a low, but we did get at least a corrective breather today.
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that that's the important thing.
• 15:35
  SPEAKER_01: The keep in mind that the steep downtrends are still in place, and we still have a lot more work to do from a bullish standpoint to get lows in place and start to rebuild here.
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_01: But you know, we've seen the futures drop off sharply over the past three weeks.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_01: We've seen a$21 drop in cash fat cattle prices.
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_01: The dressed price, that's live prices.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_01: The dressed prices are down$31 over that period of time.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_01: And so just you know, heavy selling, not only or heavy pressure, not only in the futures, but also in the cash market.
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_01: And wholesale beef prices have just been under heavy pressure as well.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_01: And so just everything kind of came together.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_01: So we shall see.
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_01: We have a cattle on feed report at the end of the week.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_01: We also have a cattle inventory report at the end of the week.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_01: And so maybe just some positioning ahead of that will allow some of that selling pressure to relieve itself as we move forward here through the remainder of the week as well.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_01: But there's there's some key data coming at the end of the week, and and the boat had been shifted pretty heavily to one side.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_01: Now, the funds are still long, they've gotten out of a lot of length, but they're still long.
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_01: And so we could see some more liquidation pressure if we don't start to get some positive fundamental news.
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_00: So so technically it feels like maybe a place where we we need to be darn good and sure that that we've placed a near-term low before we can be confident in any move higher.
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_00: Is that fair to say?
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I don't think traders are gonna want to put their neck out there and step in and say, you know, I'm gonna call the bottom pair and I'm just gonna put my neck on the line and go out and be an aggressive buyer.
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_01: I think they'll cover short positions and things like that, and and you'll get some corrective gains, but we're gonna need to see all the fundamentals turn around as well before they rebuild the confidence for buyers.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_00: You mentioned the cash market, you mentioned boxed beef.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_00: How are the Packers positioned here?
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_00: How long can they continue to uh to put up with the market like this?
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_01: Well, they you know what they've they've gotten a decent amount of cattle bought at the sharply lower prices over the past three weeks, and so somewhat of a surprise on that front, I guess.
• 17:41
  SPEAKER_01: We're into a lull period for beef demand until we get to that uh Labor Day buying from the retailers, and so I think they're positioned okay.
• 17:49
  SPEAKER_01: With that said, as far as we've dropped here recently in the cash markets, I I think we're probably close to a short-term low there.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_01: The problem is, though, that the the wholesale beef prices have just dropped too, and and the Packers remain upside down and and printing red ink, and so there's some reluctance there.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_01: They aren't going to go out and be real aggressive with bids if they don't have to be.
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, absolutely.
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and then you've got the feed yards who are holding back cattle, waiting for I guess their magic number to come floating along.
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_00: This this sets up quite the standoff between the feed yards and the Packers themselves.
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and I will say that uh the the weights have come down significantly because of all the heat that we face.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_01: So the cattle weights have dropped.
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, the the feedlot was holding back animals and putting more pounds on them to offset some of the reduced numbers.
• 18:40
  SPEAKER_01: Well, they lost some poundage over the past couple weeks, and so I maybe they'll they'll try to hold off a little bit more than they have in the past couple weeks as we move forward, and I think that that's probably the likely scenario which would help us put in a short-term low in the cash market.
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_01: But boy, it's it's too early yet to say that that's going to be the case.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_00: Is there enough steam in in this market in the feeders or and or the fats?
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_00: I guess I I could ask both or either separately to get us back up to those those mid-June highs.
• 19:13
  SPEAKER_01: I doubt it at this point.
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_01: We dropped so sharply.
• 19:15
  SPEAKER_01: I doubt that we get all the way back to the highs.
• 19:17
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, the history in the cattle market would tell us that when we make a major top and and have a significant pullback, you'll make rally attempts again, but you'll just never get back to the highs.
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll have to see on that front.
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, feeder cattle should lead us.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_01: They've led almost every single move to the upside over this long stretch of bull gains in the cattle complex.
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_01: And so we need to see some strength in the auctions again, the feeder cattle auctions.
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_01: And and if we start to see that, then that would probably be your first clue that we're putting in a bottom, not only in the the cash markets, but then the futures as well.
• 19:54
  SPEAKER_00: I can remember when when you and I were under the same roof back in Industrial Park, and people people were pulling for team, they called him Team 200, team 200 on the feeders, and people thought, no, are you crazy?
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_00: And now here we are in the in the mid-300s.
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_00: It's quite the dynamic market that we've got going here.
• 20:15
  SPEAKER_00: Uh I was talking to Jared Dillian on a completely unrelated subject on Friday's show.
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_00: A fascinating conversation.
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_00: But he talked about how a shortage is generally followed by a glut.
• 20:32
  SPEAKER_00: And that kind of got me thinking about the tightness in the national cattle supply.
• 20:38
  SPEAKER_00: Like you said, we've got a cattle inventory report coming up later on this week, so we'll get some numbers on it.
• 20:43
  SPEAKER_00: Excuse me, but I guess I just I just wonder if, in your experience, you've been doing this a pretty long freaking time, brother.
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_00: I want to lean into that experience.
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_00: Have you seen tightness turn into a glut?
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_00: Does it count for cattle as well?
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it it takes a long period of time to go through the rebuilding phase.
• 21:02
  SPEAKER_01: And so actually, what happens as you retain heifers, you pull more beef out of the slaughter mix because those heifers are now being held back to to breed.
• 21:11
  SPEAKER_01: And so it's a longer process than it is with other industries.
• 21:16
  SPEAKER_01: Hogs are quicker, poultry definitely quicker, much, much quicker.
• 21:20
  SPEAKER_01: So it it takes a period, and we're we're going through that.
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_01: We're working through that period right now.
• 21:26
  SPEAKER_01: There have been some signs of of some herd rebuilding and and things like that.
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_01: It's it just simply takes time, and that's part of the issue with all the stuff that the the administration's trying to do on the beef side of things and and fix prices and supplies, and it it just takes time.
• 21:43
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, you got to work yourself through the process.
• 21:46
  SPEAKER_00: 18 months to make a cow, roughly, isn't it?
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, absolutely.
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_01: And and you know, and that's the first wave, and then you have to have the second wave and the third wave, and and so this is a long, drawn out process.
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_01: It's it's years, it isn't you know months, let alone weeks.
• 22:02
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_00: I don't recall if last time we spoke, it wasn't that long ago, just a few weeks, if the HP report was out.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_00: at that point or not, but you know, you've you've got this makes a a pretty decent segue into the hog market there.
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_00: I mentioned a 10% gain off of the June lows, the mid-June lows.
• 22:21
  SPEAKER_00: We've got the August up over$100 now at$101.27.5 at the uh settlement today.
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_00: Pigs per litter, this the sow herd itself is a little bit smaller as I recall from that HP report, but pigs per litter continues to go higher.
• 22:37
  SPEAKER_00: Take us over to the hog market.
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_00: Can we talk about what got into the hogs today in today's trade?
• 22:42
  SPEAKER_00: Are they drafting higher?
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_00: Is there some new demand that's come in here?
• 22:46
  SPEAKER_00: What's the story on hogs?
• 22:47
  SPEAKER_01: So I think cautiously higher would be the the way to you know we we saw the front end of the market pull back a little bit that we built modest uptrends off those June lows.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_01: You know everything from March to June was contra seasonal.
• 23:02
  SPEAKER_01: We just fell and and continued to fall and and couldn't find buyers and and then in June we hit a low and we've started to build that little bit of an uptrend but it's cautious.
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_01: The futures are out in front so the August is above the cash index.
• 23:16
  SPEAKER_01: We're waiting on the cash index to climb.
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_01: It's climbing but at a steady pace not a you know it's not sprinting by any means and and so we're kind of in that process now of of feeling things out.
• 23:28
  SPEAKER_01: The slaughter numbers they're about where they need to be based on what the HEP report said and so there's no real surprises either bullish or bearish on that side of things.
• 23:38
  SPEAKER_01: So you're we're just kind of in wait mode right now the traders are are waiting and and so you probably aren't going to see huge moves to the upside because they would then be building in too much premium for what the cash index is doing from a performance standpoint.
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_00: Right or wrong we we tend to focus on the$12 level in soybeans as kind of a hinge point there.
• 24:00
  SPEAKER_00: Is there an equally perhaps unrealistic an equally psychological is is 100 in the August contract a a similar hinge point for for hogs well if you were going to tell me at the beginning of the year we'd be talking about$100 and and you know and being a potential hinge point I would have called you crazy to be honest with you.
• 24:25
  SPEAKER_01: I mean in a normal year we would be trading 115 120 or higher than that at the moment and during the summertime highs and and we just everything was upside down.
• 24:35
  SPEAKER_01: Instead of summertime highs we made summertime lows and now we're trying to recover and and so the hog market's kind of on its head and and everybody's trying to feel their way through all that very good I did have one question here.
• 24:49
  SPEAKER_00: I want to circle back I appreciate that circle back to cattle for just a moment because this story does feel like it's falling off the radar completely New World screw worm.
• 25:00
  SPEAKER_00: Moving northward the traps aren't finding anything but people are saying that's that doesn't mean anything that there aren't any traps it hasn't gotten into the wildlife it seemed like it it was such a concern and we were watching it track northward toward the Texas border and then it crossed over wider than confirmed I from what I hear as far as spread further north than people would would like but I don't know if this has gotten into the markets or not is this is the NWS still a market mover I I think it's a non-market factor to be honest with you.
• 25:34
  SPEAKER_01: It's one of those background things that I check it every single day with USDA's dashboard.
• 25:38
  SPEAKER_01: The numbers continue to climb but we have more inactive cases than active cases at the moment we did just have one show up on the Texas Mexico border on the Rio Grande.
• 25:50
  SPEAKER_01: And so that's probably something to watch because you know that and when it started it was further inland and so this is our southernmost case at the moment.
• 26:01
  SPEAKER_01: So maybe watch that but I I think generally the market the traders just aren't paying a whole lot of attention to it.
• 26:08
  SPEAKER_01: If we get a huge surge in numbers if we start to see instances in fly traps or the feral hog population or wildlife or things like that then it probably becomes a bigger deal because that means it's spreading and and USDA may not have it under control.
• 26:26
  SPEAKER_01: As it is right now it seems pretty controlled with the number of cases and and how they're unfolding.
• 26:31
  SPEAKER_00: I kind of feel like if we find it in in feral hogs we might be in trouble at that point.
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_00: What do you think?
• 26:38
  SPEAKER_01: That was my concern initially and we haven't found any yet so we shall see and you know cautiously optimistic on that front but yeah if that happens because boy everybody that lives down there in the south that it has feral hog issues knows about that just uncontrollable and and really hard to get a handle of yeah yeah you don't hear much about the feral hogs anymore it seems like uh but well we don't up here in in the Midwest but in the south it's a pretty darn big deal.
• 27:09
  SPEAKER_00: Well and I can't imagine that the the feral hog herd has gotten smaller over time by any means.
• 27:14
  SPEAKER_01: No growing and and expanding further northward but it it's it's far removed from us where we live very good.
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_00: Any any final thoughts before we move on on the uh on the livestocks we didn't really touch on demand a whole lot other than seasonally you know maybe kind of a lull in the beef demand up until the next holiday that we get for grilling but any any anything that we left out talking about the livestocks?
• 27:42
  SPEAKER_01: Oh I think that you know on the trade side of things beef was on the exempt list for Brazil and those tariffs to go into place on Wednesday on the 22nd.
• 27:51
  SPEAKER_01: Beef tallow was not that's an energy issue biodiesel and and that's a a feedstock for that.
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah all right well good boy I got something in my throat today.
• 28:02
  SPEAKER_01: Terrible hang on I'm gonna mute there I'm I'm okay now you got you one of those the million dollar rains around Sparkle City today didn't you oh absolutely you know it was we knew we were supposed to get some rains but uh it's kind of been one of those situations over the past couple weeks where every time rain is in the forecast we haven't seen anything develop and they've been spotty and and hit and miss and we've been on the miss side of things.
• 28:27
  SPEAKER_01: With that said we are in great shape compared to some of the other areas and and so I don't want to sound like I'm complaining but boy it came through today had a very nice rain this morning and it literally was a million dollar rain.
• 28:41
  SPEAKER_01: It will add bushels locally here and uh so that that area it came through some of southern southeastern Minnesota northeastern Iowa down into eastern Iowa some of Wisconsin got it northern Illinois got it so it wasn't huge widespread but it was probably a little bit more developed system than what I anticipated it to be.
• 29:01
  SPEAKER_00: It's uh it's been hot here.
• 29:03
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's going to break for us uh in the next couple days hot in Kansas City currently it's about uh oh not quite 20 to three central time we're at 96 degrees headed for a high of 98 are you guys still heat waving up there as well you know what it's it's kind of breaking and in the rains that came through for us locally here that did break the temperatures we've got one more day here of a little bit warmer temps and then it backs off but then the heat rebuilds like I talked about late in the week.
• 29:30
  SPEAKER_01: Are you seeing any of that uh wildfire smoke down where you are I you know I just we just noticed it on Sunday I hadn't seen anything prior to that and and was driving along highway 20 kind of along your old stopping grounds there and yeah you could definitely definitely noticeable the rain's tamped it down this morning though I I think they still have the the life or the the weather hazards or whatever for the the breathing hazard stuff but you know all in all no uh not nothing like they have north of us and and further to the east of us.
• 30:03
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah doesn't sound like you got uh a whole lot of crop concerns going on up there in central Iowa this is a backyard itis allowed zone here Brian so we're window how do you look we're we're blessed and we have been blessed up here in this area for several years in a row now so yeah that everything looks pretty darn good in in this area.
• 30:23
  SPEAKER_00: All right very good well let's uh let's talk about the National Weather Service a tropical system in the Gulf is expected to gradually strengthen the next few days off the Florida panhandle and Alabama coasts instances of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast severe thunderstorms to develop and move along a cold front crossing the upper Midwest and through the Ohio Valley and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday uh thoughts and prayers go out to those in Texas there's flooding down there I saw a thing on uh wildfires in Oregon now of all places Colorado's got fires fires of course that we talked about up in in Canada there's uh there are there are definitely some some significant weather events going on out there um Brian I really appreciate you being with us brian grady from comstock comstock.com before I let you go can I uh can I bring you in on some items of mild interest and treat you just a little unfairly can I do that?
• 31:24
  SPEAKER_00: Oh sure absolutely all right on this date it's uh it's July 20th 2026 today in 1874 a plague of locusts swarmed the American Midwest the the Midwest giveth and it taketh away doesn't it Brian Brian oh absolutely and uh you know I mean that long ago I guess you know the locust is today's wildfires that's right that's right in 1869 American Neil Armstrong became the first person to walk on the moon and in 356 BC Alexander the Great Macedonian king was born it's Alexander the Great's birthday today and Brian we hadn't quite started this you were our very very first guest on the Ag Squawk PM show since then it's gotten a little ugly we've we've started a new program at the end called the the Ag Bull injustice each day I ask my guest to do something that I am completely unable to do my myself it's completely unfair it's an absolute injustice but this this is how we roll this is the this is the way it's shaking out are you down to uh to put yourself up against today's Ag Bowl injustice very good well we were just talking about Alexander the Great when this famous leader was 32 he began to weep when he saw the statue of Alexander the Great as he realized that he had done nothing great in his life while Alexander had conquered the world when he was the same age this leader from history this famous man went on to pioneer a salad that still bears his name who was this ancient leader I'm gonna go with Caesar Caesar is correct that was today's egg ball injustice Brian Grady you have risen to the challenge today uh very proud of your work on that and on everything else that you've done today Brian Grady from Comstock.com that's comstock.com with two M's uh man thank you so much short notice you hopped in on a on a day when it was really important to get it right and uh you you delivered for the viewers there thanks a lot Brian we'll see you again soon I hope oh absolutely and thanks for having me very good uh for a view behind the quotes look to trade the news we use trade the news for some of that added detail in the markets there trade the news everybody and may I also direct you to agbol.com where you can dig deeper with Ag Bull Intel take the markets by the horns with Agbull visit Agbol.com or call 855-737 Farm for all the details thanks for watching everybody Davis Michelson here along with Brian Grady from Comstock Jed will be back first thing in the morning to get you ready for whatever comes next and then I'll be talking tomorrow with Rachel Fishback from Pride of Pork thanks everyone for being here come back tomorrow we'll see you then