Latest / The President's Daily Brief / The PDB Situation Report | November 7th, 2026: U.S. Strikes Venezuela & Trump Plans to End Israel Aid

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The PDB Situation Report | November 7th, 2026: U.S. Strikes Venezuela & Trump Plans to End Israel Aid · The President's Daily Brief

0:07
Welcome to the PDB Situation Report.
0:09
I'm Mike Baker with your eyes and ears
0:12
on the world stage.
0:14
Alright,
0:14
let's get briefed.
0:15
First up,
0:16
a deadly US drone strike inside Venezuela
0:20
signals a new level of cooperation between
0:22
Washington and the Delsy Rodriguez government.
0:25
Even his opposition leader,
0:26
Maria Corina Machado returns to challenge the interim president's leadership.
0:32
We'll be joined by Rick de la Torre.
0:34
He's a retired CIA operations officer
0:36
and former station chief for Caracas.
0:40
Later in the show,
0:41
President Trump announces plans to end billions of dollars in annual aid to Israel,
0:46
raising major questions,
0:47
of course,
0:48
about the future
0:49
of the U.S.Israel alliance.
0:51
We'll get analysis from David Daoop,
0:53
friend of the show,
0:54
senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense
0:56
of Democracies.
0:57
But first,
0:58
today's Situation Report,
0:59
Spotlight.
1:01
The US military has reportedly carried out a deadly
1:04
drone strike against Colombian guerrillas inside Venezuela with the cooperation
1:09
of Venezuela's government.
1:11
According to the Wall Street Journal,
1:12
more than 2 dozen ELN fighters were killed in the operation.
1:16
That's a dramatic reversal for a country that once provided sanctuary
1:20
for those ELN fighters.
1:22
Washington and Caracas are now reportedly negotiating an agreement
1:26
that could allow American troops and joint military.
1:29
Operations on Venezuelan soil.
1:31
My,
1:31
how times have changed.
1:33
Meanwhile,
1:34
the opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has returned from exile.
1:38
You probably heard about that,
1:39
adding new pressure for democratic elections
1:42
and potentially complicating Washington's relationship
1:45
with Dulcie Rodriguez.
1:47
For more on that,
1:48
I wanna bring in Rick de la Torre.
1:50
He's a retired CIA operations officer with over 20 years of experience,
1:54
and he's the former station chief
1:56
for Caracas.
1:58
Rick,
1:58
thanks very much for coming back on The Situation Report.
2:00
I appreciate it.
2:02
No,
2:02
it's a pleasure to be here with you,
2:03
right.
2:04
Excellent.
2:04
Well,
2:04
hopefully you feel that way after we finish our conversation.
2:07
Uh,
2:08
I always do.
2:08
So,
2:10
so I tell you,
2:11
it,
2:11
it,
2:12
uh,
2:14
Maria's,
2:14
uh,
2:16
return,
2:16
right,
2:17
to Venezuela.
2:19
Just,
2:19
it,
2:19
it absolutely captured the headlines,
2:22
uh,
2:23
for what appeared to be about 24 hours.
2:25
And then
2:25
just the rush of events,
2:27
other activities,
2:28
mostly because in the US the midterm elections were right around the corner.
2:31
But,
2:31
you know,
2:32
I think also we've got attention deficit disorder as a,
2:34
as a nation.
2:36
Uh,
2:36
but where are we with her return from exile?
2:42
Well,
2:43
I mean,
2:43
I,
2:43
I,
2:43
I,
2:44
I think with her return,
2:45
what,
2:45
what you finally saw now is a counterbalance to,
2:48
to the,
2:49
uh,
2:49
the Maduro regime,
2:50
the Chavista regime,
2:51
Dulcie Rodriguez,
2:52
and,
2:52
and her group that are still very much in power.
2:55
So,
2:55
you know,
2:55
up until then,
2:56
she was outside of Venezuela,
2:58
so that means she's part of the problem.
3:00
She's exterior to the issue.
3:02
Now that she's inside the country,
3:04
well,
3:05
now she has an opportunity to get the opposition leaders,
3:09
opposition folks to rally around her
3:12
and provide now the,
3:13
the needed um counterbalance
3:15
that Trump can use,
3:16
and,
3:17
and,
3:17
and,
3:17
and,
3:18
and Secretary Rubio can use
3:20
to then
3:20
pressure the Chavista regime to make the kinds of election reforms and,
3:24
and actually put an election on the date,
3:26
uh,
3:26
uh,
3:27
on the calendar.
3:27
So,
3:28
so,
3:28
so that,
3:29
you know,
3:29
we,
3:29
we could hopefully start seeing,
3:31
uh,
3:31
some free elections.
3:32
So,
3:33
yeah,
3:33
I,
3:33
look,
3:33
I,
3:34
I know it wasn't,
3:35
um,
3:36
you know,
3:36
it wasn't wall to wall news here in the United States,
3:38
and that's understandable,
3:39
right?
3:39
You know,
3:39
we've got plenty of our own issues and we've got the midterm elections.
3:42
But,
3:43
uh,
3:43
there,
3:43
I can assure you,
3:44
it was definitely the biggest news and it continues to be the biggest news.
3:47
She,
3:48
you know,
3:48
she's being followed by media all the time.
3:50
What are your plans?
3:51
What are the next steps?
3:52
What are your thoughts?
3:53
So,
3:54
what,
3:54
what you're seeing now is something that Venezuela hasn't had in a long time.
3:58
What we're used to here in the United States,
3:59
right?
4:00
Um,
4:00
you know,
4:01
here in the United States,
4:02
they ask the president something and then they turn around and ask someone
4:05
who's opposed to the president,
4:06
what they think.
4:07
Um,
4:07
well,
4:07
now that,
4:08
that's happening in Venezuela.
4:09
So you,
4:09
you get the official report from the government,
4:12
and then,
4:13
you know,
4:13
they,
4:13
they,
4:13
they put a microphone in front of her and what are your thoughts?
4:16
So,
4:17
it,
4:17
it's,
4:17
it's a great dynamic.
4:18
It's starting to play out and,
4:20
you know,
4:20
hopefully,
4:20
it will continue.
4:21
Her safety is paramount and,
4:23
and,
4:23
and maybe we'll,
4:23
we'll,
4:24
we'll,
4:24
you know,
4:24
we'll get,
4:25
we'll get to an election sooner rather than later.
4:28
It,
4:29
maybe I'm wrong on this,
4:30
but my,
4:31
my initial reaction
4:33
was that the,
4:35
the reaction from the White House was less than enthusiastic
4:39
about her return.
4:40
You almost got the impression that the White House
4:43
is,
4:43
you know,
4:43
is,
4:44
is pretty happy with sort of the
4:46
transactional business opportunities that they've developed.
4:49
And it was almost,
4:50
it almost felt like me,
4:52
and again,
4:52
I could be wrong on this,
4:53
but it felt like
4:55
The Trump administration was kind of like,
4:57
mm,
4:58
is,
4:58
is,
4:59
is this a good thing or is this gonna cause
5:01
some problems
5:02
for the business that we're trying to do here?
5:06
Right.
5:07
So,
5:07
I,
5:07
I think,
5:08
I,
5:08
I,
5:08
I think you're,
5:08
you,
5:08
you're right on,
5:09
on,
5:09
on many points there.
5:10
Um,
5:12
let's remember that under Trump 1.0,
5:15
at that time,
5:15
his advisors
5:17
told him that,
5:18
um,
5:18
the opposition leader Juan Guaido
5:20
was the guy to support and that,
5:22
you know,
5:22
Maduro was,
5:23
you know,
5:23
the,
5:23
the whole Chavista thing in Venezuela was a deck of
5:26
cards and it would be easy to blow over.
5:28
Uh,
5:28
all we had to do was just really
5:31
rally around Juan Guaido and,
5:32
and,
5:33
and you'll see everything lines up and,
5:35
That obviously wasn't the case.
5:37
And so,
5:38
I,
5:38
I think it's only fair for him to be a bit suspicious.
5:41
And,
5:41
and then,
5:42
so,
5:42
so you had a group of advisors
5:44
who really focused on,
5:47
and,
5:47
and,
5:47
and,
5:47
and makes perfectly good sense,
5:49
really focused on US
5:51
first
5:52
issues,
5:52
right?
5:53
Uh,
5:53
access to,
5:54
you know,
5:55
uh,
5:55
to,
5:55
to,
5:55
to oil,
5:56
uh,
5:57
you know,
5:57
uh,
5:57
uh,
5:57
building a stronger economy together.
5:59
And then,
6:00
and then you had others that really wanting to focus on,
6:03
on,
6:03
on establishing democracy and whatever that means.
6:06
Um,
6:07
so those dynamics played out and,
6:09
and,
6:10
and I think what the president realized as,
6:12
as he is as a dealmaker.
6:14
Uh,
6:15
he felt that Delsey was the kind of person that,
6:17
that,
6:18
that
6:18
he could work out a deal with.
6:20
Um,
6:21
it's only now over time
6:23
that I think that's happened is
6:25
some of these deals,
6:26
uh,
6:27
have come under a lot of suspicion,
6:29
a lot of concerns about corruption,
6:30
a lot of concerns about backroom deals
6:33
that aren't just gonna pass,
6:34
uh,
6:34
muster.
6:35
And,
6:35
and,
6:35
you know,
6:36
of course,
6:36
The White House wasn't involved in any of these things,
6:38
you know,
6:38
a lot of these issues
6:40
were being driven from,
6:41
you know,
6:42
the,
6:42
the same corrupt folks,
6:43
uh,
6:44
from Venezuela.
6:45
And I know for a fact,
6:46
right,
6:47
there were,
6:47
uh,
6:47
a number of individuals
6:49
who,
6:50
uh,
6:50
I think incorrectly,
6:51
um,
6:53
told,
6:53
you know,
6:53
were telling the president
6:55
that,
6:56
that,
6:56
that Maria just didn't have the support.
6:58
She,
6:58
she wasn't respected.
7:00
She didn't have the leadership experience.
7:02
And,
7:02
and that the support really wasn't there.
7:05
Yet the polling data,
7:06
the outcries of the folks,
7:08
you know,
7:08
uh,
7:09
it was consistent and,
7:10
and,
7:10
you know,
7:11
in her return,
7:12
You know,
7:13
uh,
7:13
she came in over the border,
7:14
uh,
7:15
outside of Colombia.
7:16
And,
7:16
and from that moment on,
7:18
uh,
7:18
you know,
7:18
um,
7:19
what should have been a 4-hour drive to Caracas,
7:21
turned into like 28 hours because everywhere she went,
7:24
you know,
7:25
she got stopped and the entire community will come out to support her.
7:28
Recent polling is showing her in,
7:30
you know,
7:30
in the high 60s,
7:31
70s,
7:32
while,
7:33
um,
7:33
while Dulcie Rodriguez,
7:35
the,
7:35
uh,
7:35
the,
7:35
the vice president,
7:36
uh,
7:37
uh,
7:37
she's polling in like single digits,
7:39
10% maybe.
7:41
So,
7:41
so those are things that,
7:42
that,
7:43
that,
7:43
that,
7:43
you know,
7:43
that really can't be reconciled.
7:45
And then we saw in the midterms,
7:46
a lot of Venezuelan-Americans remembered that too.
7:49
Um,
7:50
so,
7:50
I think this is a great opportunity,
7:52
a reset button for,
7:53
for,
7:53
for the president of the United States.
7:54
He's done it before.
7:56
He's pivoted from strategies that aren't effective,
7:58
that.
7:58
Working.
7:59
He's cleaned house and,
8:00
and,
8:01
and,
8:01
you know,
8:01
and,
8:02
and,
8:02
and made the correct calls.
8:03
This is another opportunity for him to review what's happening in Venezuela
8:07
and,
8:07
and maybe steer a little bit more towards the,
8:10
the kinds of reforms
8:11
that are gonna be consistent and,
8:13
and also continue to provide great business deals for the United States.
8:17
Yeah.
8:18
What are the,
8:18
uh,
8:18
what are the key impediments to,
8:20
uh,
8:21
free and fair election
8:22
in Venezuela?
8:24
Well,
8:25
there's no,
8:26
there's no,
8:26
um,
8:28
there's no organized body,
8:29
there's no system in place to guarantee or to make that happen.
8:33
So,
8:33
let's start off with the,
8:34
with the actual election
8:36
machines,
8:37
right?
8:38
These are the very famous machines
8:40
that,
8:40
um,
8:41
now it's being widely reported in the press,
8:43
and,
8:43
um,
8:44
I've got some inside info on that,
8:45
so I won't discuss it,
8:46
but
8:47
according to the press reports,
8:48
Uh,
8:49
you know,
8:49
the,
8:49
the,
8:49
these are machines
8:50
that,
8:51
according to the press,
8:52
um,
8:52
um,
8:53
the Maduro regime
8:54
took active steps to fix,
8:56
some,
8:56
uh,
8:56
to,
8:56
to,
8:56
uh,
8:57
to make sure that,
8:58
that elections could be called the way they wanted to.
9:00
They,
9:01
they had a really strong concerted effort to,
9:03
uh,
9:03
to,
9:03
to export these machines throughout Latin America,
9:06
uh,
9:06
so that they can control elections in those markets.
9:09
And these are the same machines that they use within
9:11
their country,
9:12
right?
9:12
So,
9:13
they have to scrap all those machines.
9:15
They have to clear the electoral rolls.
9:17
They have to bring integrity from the ground up to,
9:20
uh,
9:21
to the uh the electoral process.
9:23
Then you start local,
9:24
then regional,
9:25
then national.
9:26
So,
9:27
best estimates,
9:28
some folks are saying,
9:29
Um,
9:30
12 months,
9:30
others maybe 18,
9:32
but it's certainly within,
9:34
you know,
9:35
a time span that's manageable and workable.
9:37
Um,
9:38
the,
9:39
the regime down there,
9:40
of course,
9:40
they're saying,
9:41
oh,
9:41
no,
9:42
we need,
9:42
you know,
9:42
we need at least 1015,
9:44
you know,
9:45
just absolutely ridiculous,
9:46
right?
9:46
Yeah,
9:47
you know,
9:47
um,
9:48
it's a couple of decades at least,
9:50
yeah,
9:51
yeah,
9:51
yeah,
9:51
yeah,
9:51
yeah,
9:52
yeah,
9:52
yeah,
9:52
we gotta be slow with democracy,
9:54
right?
9:55
So,
9:56
so,
9:56
uh.
9:57
You know,
9:57
it's,
9:58
it's laughable.
9:59
Um,
9:59
their,
9:59
you know,
10:00
their big strategy,
10:00
of course,
10:01
is to,
10:02
to,
10:03
to outlive
10:04
this administration
10:05
and,
10:06
and hopefully,
10:07
you know,
10:07
uh,
10:08
have a second chance,
10:09
a second life,
10:10
uh,
10:11
with,
10:11
you know,
10:12
with the new White House,
10:13
um,
10:14
and,
10:14
and remain entrenched.
10:15
You know,
10:16
it's,
10:16
it's,
10:17
you know,
10:17
you,
10:17
you remember this from,
10:18
from your days working with Russians,
10:20
uh,
10:21
and,
10:21
and others by the Soviet and,
10:22
and communist bloc,
10:24
right?
10:24
You know,
10:24
the,
10:24
the higher up they go,
10:27
In,
10:27
in these systems,
10:28
right?
10:28
The more
10:29
they realize at the top that it's,
10:31
it's all crap,
10:32
none of it is real.
10:33
Uh,
10:33
it's not about ideology,
10:34
it's about corruption.
10:35
It's about lining your pockets,
10:37
and,
10:37
and that's what it is in Venezuela,
10:39
right?
10:40
You know,
10:40
these are folks who have
10:41
not millions but billions of dollars in overseas bank accounts,
10:46
and they're trying their best to make more and figure out how to,
10:49
how,
10:49
how to keep the money.
10:51
Yeah.
10:52
No,
10:52
it's absolutely,
10:54
absolutely correct.
10:55
Um,
10:56
I think with
10:58
With
10:59
The potential,
11:00
right?
11:01
Uh,
11:01
I mean,
11:01
what,
11:02
what is the,
11:03
the timeline?
11:05
From the
11:06
public's perspective.
11:08
I know that's a,
11:08
that's a hugely speculative question,
11:10
but,
11:11
but what's their patience level?
11:13
I mean,
11:14
does it stretch out to 12 months?
11:16
Does it stretch out to a couple of years
11:18
before at some point,
11:20
you would assume there's going to be a level of frustration over all of this.
11:25
I,
11:25
I think we're they're there now.
11:27
Look,
11:27
I,
11:27
I visited,
11:27
I visited Caracas in,
11:29
uh,
11:30
in July,
11:31
and it was palpable.
11:33
Uh,
11:33
I,
11:34
what I saw was,
11:35
um,
11:36
a lot of the locals were saying,
11:38
hey,
11:38
when is Trump coming?
11:39
You know,
11:40
when's the rest of the American forces coming?
11:42
I didn't have a heart to tell him like,
11:44
hey,
11:44
you,
11:44
we've kind of moved on from this,
11:46
right?
11:46
It's kind of up to you,
11:47
and,
11:47
and rightfully it should be,
11:48
right?
11:49
You know,
11:49
uh,
11:50
but,
11:50
but,
11:50
you know,
11:51
they,
11:51
they were so hopeful,
11:52
right?
11:52
And you know,
11:53
right there.
11:54
If,
11:54
if they had the power,
11:55
they would have elected,
11:56
uh,
11:57
President Trump and Marco Rubio,
11:58
you know,
11:59
pres,
11:59
you know,
12:00
president of the world,
12:01
you know,
12:01
um,
12:02
god,
12:02
deity of Venezuela if they could.
12:04
Uh,
12:05
and,
12:05
and obviously,
12:06
then the earthquake happened a few weeks later.
12:09
And,
12:09
and I think that was one of the bigger breaking points because
12:12
there were no emergency services available to Venezuelans,
12:15
none,
12:16
none,
12:16
right?
12:17
A country that has had earthquakes since the beginning of time.
12:21
So it wasn't like a surprise.
12:22
Oh my God,
12:23
there was an earthquake.
12:23
Like,
12:24
it's like,
12:24
you know,
12:24
it's like no one knows there's earthquakes in California.
12:26
Yeah,
12:27
there's earthquakes,
12:27
you gotta prepare for that stuff.
12:29
And when they looked for
12:31
the emergency rations and the Emergency,
12:33
you know,
12:33
uh,
12:34
um,
12:35
systems and,
12:36
and the none of that was there.
12:38
All of that had been looted years ago.
12:40
Um,
12:40
the people who were supposed to
12:42
rise up and lead evacuation efforts,
12:45
they were,
12:46
uh,
12:46
you know,
12:47
uh,
12:47
uh,
12:48
Communist Party,
12:49
you know,
12:49
uh,
12:49
uh,
12:50
apparatchiks who,
12:51
who,
12:51
you know,
12:52
who,
12:52
who just got the job because of relationships.
12:55
One of them was a poet.
12:57
No experience in anything to do with civil engineering or emergency services,
13:02
but he can write really good poetry,
13:03
apparently.
13:04
And,
13:05
and,
13:05
you know,
13:06
that's the response that they sought,
13:08
right?
13:08
Yeah.
13:08
You know,
13:09
so,
13:09
so,
13:09
so that was it,
13:10
that,
13:10
that was really the breaking point.
13:12
They were very grateful for the American response
13:15
because that's what we do as Americans,
13:16
you know,
13:17
um,
13:17
we,
13:18
we're,
13:18
we're the largest donor nation in the world and,
13:20
and we help people.
13:22
Um,
13:22
but
13:23
You know,
13:24
and they're like,
13:24
hey,
13:25
we're sick and tired of the blackouts.
13:26
We're sick and tired of not having jobs.
13:29
We're sick and tired
13:30
of,
13:31
uh,
13:31
of the corruption,
13:32
of the shakedowns,
13:33
of the political arrests.
13:36
And
13:36
I,
13:37
look,
13:37
the best way I can explain this is to,
13:39
you know,
13:39
I,
13:40
I look,
13:40
I'm a Cuban-American,
13:41
right?
13:42
Imagine if,
13:43
if the US government removed
13:45
Fidel Castro,
13:47
but then put Raul Castro in charge.
13:51
Right?
13:51
You know,
13:51
and then,
13:52
and then said,
13:52
hey,
13:53
you know,
13:53
we're,
13:53
we're we're winning.
13:55
Yeah,
13:55
that,
13:56
that's a really bitter pill for,
13:58
uh,
13:58
you know,
13:58
for folks to swallow.
13:59
And,
13:59
and that's how they,
14:00
they see things in Venezuela.
14:02
Yeah,
14:02
you removed,
14:03
obviously,
14:04
the,
14:04
the head of the steak,
14:05
but you left a lot of other little snakes around and,
14:08
and,
14:08
and,
14:09
and they're not until they see.
14:11
Elections when they see people that they know,
14:13
people
14:14
that,
14:15
you know,
14:15
that,
14:15
that believe in representative democracy,
14:17
free press,
14:18
uh,
14:19
capitalism,
14:20
all the things that we believe here in the United States,
14:22
that's what people are,
14:23
are gonna feel better.
14:24
And they remember all this stuff.
14:25
The regime's only been there for 20 some odd years,
14:27
so most adults remember what it was like.
14:30
Yeah,
14:31
no,
14:31
absolutely.
14:31
I mean,
14:31
they've got the advantage of,
14:33
of,
14:33
you know,
14:34
of,
14:34
of remembering,
14:35
uh,
14:35
democratic society of what it means to have elections that,
14:39
you know,
14:39
the sort of things they don't have in Iran now,
14:42
uh,
14:42
you know,
14:43
after all these years with the Islamic Republic and why it's so difficult to get,
14:46
you know,
14:47
the potential for change there.
14:48
Um,
14:49
a lot more questions here,
14:50
Rick,
14:50
but,
14:51
uh,
14:51
we need to take a quick break.
14:53
So don't go anywhere.
14:55
Uh,
14:55
and we'll be back with more from Rick de la Torre,
14:57
former CIA.
14:59
Uh,
14:59
operations officer,
15:00
a former station chief for Caracas,
15:02
right here on the Situation Report,
15:04
so stick around.
15:06
Hey,
15:06
Mike Baker here.
15:07
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15:08
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15:11
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16:11
Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report.
16:13
Joining me once again is former CIA station chief for Caracas,
16:17
Rick de la Torre.
16:18
Rick,
16:18
thanks very much for being there.
16:19
If you
16:20
come back and you weren't in your chair,
16:22
that would have been,
16:23
uh,
16:24
awkward.
16:25
But
16:26
what's so thank you for sticking around.
16:28
Uh,
16:29
of course,
16:29
look,
16:30
we,
16:31
we've been talking about,
16:33
you know,
16:33
the potential for elections in Venezuela,
16:36
um,
16:37
to what degree?
16:39
Uh,
16:40
is all this hinging on
16:43
The
16:44
Venezuelan military security apparatus and where they view their survival.
16:51
Yeah.
16:52
Well,
16:52
look,
16:52
like,
16:52
like,
16:53
like all good to solitary regimes,
16:54
the first thing you do is control all the guns and the ammo and,
16:57
and,
16:58
and,
16:58
and the military,
16:59
right?
17:00
So,
17:00
what you have there is you have,
17:03
um,
17:04
uh,
17:05
you know,
17:05
a group of,
17:06
uh,
17:06
uh,
17:06
generals and colonels and,
17:08
and military units
17:09
that have been handpicked,
17:11
uh,
17:11
over the years by the regime.
17:13
One of the first thing Dulcie did when,
17:14
when,
17:14
when she took over
17:16
was she,
17:17
she immediately removed anyone.
17:20
Who she,
17:20
you know,
17:21
felt would be a threat to her and her power,
17:23
and,
17:23
and immediately promoted,
17:25
you know,
17:25
people off the street that she knew and made them,
17:27
you know,
17:27
generals and colonels and in charge of the units that she wanted them to be,
17:31
uh,
17:31
including the person who who who who
17:33
who led the Venezuelan army.
17:35
Um,
17:36
the real,
17:37
you know,
17:37
uh,
17:38
you know,
17:38
the,
17:39
the,
17:39
the,
17:39
the real guy who's,
17:40
who's
17:41
extremely evil out there,
17:42
the guy who's got American blood on his hands,
17:45
one who orchestrated and masterminded a lot of the kidnappings,
17:49
uh,
17:49
of Americans over the last year,
17:51
uh,
17:52
is,
17:52
uh,
17:52
is,
17:53
is the head of the,
17:54
the Venezuelan intelligence services and the internal police,
17:57
a guy named Estado Cabello.
17:59
Uh,
17:59
DEA he's got an arrest warrant out for $25 million.
18:03
Uh,
18:03
and,
18:04
and he's still there,
18:05
and he's still in charge,
18:06
and he still runs these units.
18:09
And,
18:09
um,
18:10
uh,
18:10
you know,
18:11
I,
18:11
I,
18:11
one of the things I realized when I was there in,
18:13
in July,
18:14
which shocked me,
18:14
I didn't,
18:14
I didn't know this was this,
18:15
this is after Maduro's arrest.
18:17
He's out of the country,
18:19
like every night.
18:20
Uh,
18:21
on,
18:21
on the local television channels,
18:23
like at a certain time,
18:25
uh,
18:25
this is old Soviet propaganda stuff,
18:27
right?
18:28
You've got somebody who comes up and you've got the Dear Leader's poster behind you,
18:33
and,
18:33
you know,
18:34
they rattle on for like two hours giving you,
18:37
you know,
18:37
that,
18:38
you know,
18:38
that day's communist sermon,
18:40
you know,
18:40
right out of the Book of Lenin.
18:42
Oh,
18:42
it's breveting sucks.
18:43
It's absolutely,
18:44
yeah,
18:44
yeah,
18:44
exactly,
18:45
yeah,
18:45
yeah,
18:46
yeah,
18:46
exactly.
18:47
And,
18:47
and you know,
18:48
it is full of all the poison and evil,
18:50
you know,
18:50
I'll blame the US and I,
18:52
so
18:53
I,
18:53
you know,
18:53
I,
18:54
I'm in town,
18:54
I'm sitting in the hotel,
18:55
I turn on the channel,
18:56
and they're still broadcasting that stuff.
18:59
Let's still happening,
19:00
right?
19:01
And,
19:01
and so,
19:02
so this is a guy who,
19:03
this is what he does.
19:03
He goes on TV and,
19:04
and he calls all American leaders butchers and
19:07
that communism is very much alive and well,
19:10
and that,
19:10
you know,
19:10
Maduro's been kidnapped and he'll be returned.
19:13
And the political repression still continues,
19:15
right?
19:16
They're still arresting the Venezuelans.
19:17
In the street,
19:17
they're still throwing them into poli,
19:19
uh,
19:19
you know,
19:20
uh,
19:20
into jail.
19:21
Um,
19:21
they're still tracking down people.
19:23
They're still shaking down businesses.
19:25
That,
19:25
that system is still very much alive and,
19:28
and continues
19:29
and will continue
19:30
until there's a change in,
19:32
in,
19:32
in,
19:32
in government there.
19:34
Well,
19:35
but you could argue,
19:36
uh,
19:36
a couple of things here,
19:38
right?
19:38
Uh,
19:38
first of all,
19:39
you could argue that
19:39
we've got $25 million sitting on Cabello's head,
19:43
and he's still there and he's still visible.
19:45
It's not like he's gone into
19:46
hiding somewhere.
19:47
Um,
19:48
so that begs the question,
19:49
just how interested is the US in,
19:52
in continuing this effort or have they just decided,
19:55
as you pointed out earlier,
19:56
in a,
19:56
in a way,
19:57
they've moved on.
19:59
Um,
20:00
and then
20:01
that system's still in place and in part also
20:03
as you pointed out because they've all become wealthy,
20:06
they're off of this system,
20:07
they all want to maintain this system.
20:10
So,
20:11
without,
20:11
I mean,
20:12
it sort of implies that without really significant
20:15
US involvement here.
20:18
Um,
20:19
You're hard pressed to see how some
20:22
well-meaning opposition.
20:24
is going to replace
20:26
the system that's there.
20:30
Look,
20:30
I,
20:30
I agree,
20:31
there's no easy choices here.
20:33
I,
20:33
I am encouraged though,
20:35
um,
20:35
Secretary Rubio,
20:37
um,
20:37
I,
20:37
I think is,
20:38
well,
20:38
I,
20:38
I know this,
20:39
right?
20:39
I,
20:39
I,
20:40
uh,
20:40
when I used to brief Senate Oversight and,
20:43
and he was the,
20:44
the senior ranking member there.
20:46
He was certainly one of the senators,
20:48
uh,
20:49
who,
20:50
well,
20:50
I gotta tell you,
20:51
I think he was the only senator
20:52
that actually took the time to read all our intel reports,
20:56
uh,
20:56
um,
20:57
dive into the,
20:59
the,
20:59
the ops traffic,
21:01
ask us real,
21:02
real questions
21:03
about how we saw things.
21:05
Um,
21:06
and,
21:06
you know,
21:07
we'd listened to the analysts and then he'd turned,
21:08
you know,
21:09
he turned to us and say,
21:10
well,
21:10
from an offside,
21:11
how do you see it,
21:11
right?
21:12
And,
21:13
and he got it.
21:14
Yeah,
21:14
I mean,
21:14
he really,
21:15
really understood it.
21:16
So,
21:16
I,
21:16
I have no doubt that he gets it and he understands it too.
21:19
Um,
21:20
and,
21:20
and I,
21:21
I,
21:21
I think,
21:22
You know,
21:23
like everything,
21:24
there's there's no one way of doing things.
21:29
You know,
21:30
Diostado,
21:31
right?
21:31
He,
21:31
he,
21:32
uh,
21:32
Cabello has access to the weapons systems.
21:34
He,
21:34
he does command power.
21:36
Um,
21:37
I think,
21:37
I think his time is limited.
21:39
Uh,
21:39
I,
21:39
I,
21:40
I don't think he's gonna be around,
21:42
uh,
21:42
forever,
21:43
and I think
21:44
he's gonna face justice at some point.
21:46
It,
21:46
it is happening.
21:47
It's just not happening at the pace that I think Venezuelans would like to see,
21:51
right?
21:52
And,
21:52
um,
21:53
You know,
21:53
um,
21:54
some recent stuff going on,
21:56
um,
21:56
you know,
21:57
they,
21:57
they just appointed a new foreign minister.
21:59
I think,
21:59
uh,
22:00
you know,
22:00
uh,
22:01
just reading the body language and the stuff coming out of the State Department,
22:05
you could tell it was a very cold relationship with,
22:07
uh,
22:08
Secretary Rubio.
22:09
Um,
22:10
you know,
22:10
during,
22:11
during,
22:11
uh,
22:11
the United Nations Federal Assembly,
22:13
uh,
22:14
Marco Rubio stayed very clear
22:16
of taking any photos with,
22:18
uh,
22:18
with Dulcie Rodriguez or any of those Venezuelans.
22:21
So,
22:22
I,
22:22
you know,
22:23
I,
22:23
I think he,
22:24
he understands better than anyone,
22:26
um,
22:26
the kinds of changes that need to happen there.
22:28
Uh,
22:29
but,
22:29
you know,
22:30
we,
22:30
we don't control the timeline
22:32
and,
22:33
and,
22:33
and this is,
22:34
this,
22:34
I granted,
22:34
it's gradual,
22:35
it's step by step.
22:37
All I'm saying is I think the Venezuelan people,
22:39
they're at a stage now where they want to see more,
22:42
um,
22:42
and,
22:42
and,
22:43
and,
22:43
and,
22:43
and,
22:44
and maybe they're ready for it.
22:46
How would they feel about it if,
22:47
if,
22:48
uh,
22:49
Yeah,
22:50
look,
22:50
I mean,
22:51
this is kind of a.
22:52
Broad question.
22:54
We did cover here on the PDB,
22:56
uh,
22:57
the past couple of days.
22:58
We covered the,
22:58
uh,
22:58
drone strikes along the border with Colombia,
23:01
uh,
23:01
in Venezuela,
23:02
which,
23:03
which seems to
23:04
imply
23:05
sort of a,
23:05
a,
23:05
a bit of a sea change in terms of
23:07
military cooperation between the US and Venezuela.
23:11
Um,
23:12
you know,
23:12
given that,
23:13
given the US military drones went in and
23:16
reportedly killed upwards of 2 dozen ELN fighters
23:19
with the cooperation of the Venezuelan military.
23:22
Um,
23:23
seems
23:25
like,
23:25
OK,
23:26
that's good.
23:26
We've got a relationship there.
23:28
Um,
23:30
but
23:30
in a way,
23:31
it's bad.
23:32
You would see,
23:33
I guess,
23:35
In my mind,
23:36
I would think,
23:36
well,
23:36
look,
23:37
Cabello's there,
23:38
you got a lot of fat stacks riding on picking him up,
23:40
you know,
23:40
if someone,
23:41
you know,
23:41
rolls him over,
23:42
um,
23:44
US military goes in and picks him up,
23:46
you know,
23:46
and brings him to justice.
23:47
I don't,
23:47
you know,
23:48
I,
23:48
I,
23:48
on one hand,
23:49
I,
23:49
I,
23:49
I,
23:50
I think to myself,
23:50
why wouldn't we
23:52
do that to help accelerate this process,
23:55
uh,
23:56
plus he deserves it.
23:57
Uh,
23:58
but on the other hand,
23:59
I can see where the White House would be like,
24:01
look,
24:01
we've done enough here.
24:02
We got other issues on our plate.
24:04
We're gonna move on.
24:05
They're gonna get themselves sorted out.
24:07
Or maybe they won't.
24:09
I don't,
24:09
I don't know.
24:10
But again,
24:11
that's a terrible way of framing what really,
24:12
I guess,
24:13
no,
24:13
I know it wasn't much of a question.
24:16
Well,
24:16
look,
24:16
I,
24:17
I,
24:17
there's one thing about this administration too is
24:19
we don't get into military hostilities just for,
24:22
for ideological reasons,
24:24
right?
24:24
You know,
24:25
you could argue that's probably been some mistakes we've made,
24:27
right?
24:27
That there's gotta be a clear reason why it's a benefit to the United States.
24:31
And
24:32
there's competing interests there and perhaps there's
24:33
competing interests there that I'm not tracking,
24:35
that the press isn't tracking,
24:37
and,
24:37
and,
24:37
and maybe you could,
24:38
so,
24:38
so,
24:38
you know,
24:39
we'll,
24:39
we'll certainly give,
24:40
um,
24:41
you know,
24:41
some deference there.
24:43
But,
24:43
but do you get,
24:44
uh,
24:44
let me ask you this.
24:45
Do you think,
24:45
do you think there's a,
24:46
a be a benefit?
24:47
Do you think there's a national security benefit,
24:49
uh,
24:50
that it's in the interest of the US
24:52
to
24:53
have,
24:54
uh,
24:54
a
24:55
free democratic
24:57
society in Venezuela?
24:59
Oh,
24:59
absolutely.
25:00
Yeah,
25:01
absolutely.
25:02
Well,
25:02
because,
25:02
you know,
25:02
because if you have a free democratic society in Venezuela,
25:05
then that means you have rule of law,
25:07
you have institutions,
25:09
you have
25:09
a system in place.
25:11
If you have this communist system in place right now,
25:14
the totalitarian system that just makes decisions
25:17
willy-nilly,
25:18
then,
25:19
you know,
25:19
what's to stop,
25:20
you know,
25:21
on January 20 21st of 2029,
25:25
of everything just going back to what it was before.
25:28
Right?
25:28
You know,
25:29
so,
25:29
so,
25:29
so,
25:30
that's why you need these things.
25:32
Um,
25:32
we're blessed that,
25:33
that a lot of the opposition,
25:34
if not most of them,
25:36
want closer relationships with the United States,
25:38
are embracing free markets,
25:40
believe in rule of law and contracts and constitutions.
25:43
So,
25:44
so the,
25:45
you know,
25:45
I think we're in a better position if,
25:47
you know,
25:47
if we do do that.
25:49
And,
25:49
and look,
25:49
and I'm honest to add,
25:50
I,
25:50
I,
25:51
I look at,
25:51
it,
25:51
it actually,
25:52
it,
25:53
it,
25:53
it actually
25:54
serves the purpose of,
25:55
look,
25:55
if,
25:56
if,
25:56
again,
25:56
and I know this makes me sound cynical,
25:58
but,
25:59
you know,
25:59
you and I have,
26:00
have been around the block a few times.
26:02
And as a result of that,
26:03
you do have a certain level of cynicism.
26:06
But
26:07
If the White House views Venezuela right now as a,
26:09
let's not rock the goddamn boat,
26:12
right?
26:12
With worrying about this opposition situation and elections,
26:14
and who knows what that's gonna do to these business deals because we believe that,
26:18
that creating the business,
26:19
maybe that's the long-term driver for a democratic society.
26:24
So,
26:24
OK,
26:25
that's what we wanna focus on.
26:27
Uh,
26:28
Then,
26:29
if that's not the case,
26:30
then I would argue that rule of law issue is a much better driver for
26:35
better business and the,
26:36
and the future of
26:38
Venezuela and US business interests,
26:41
because otherwise,
26:42
yeah,
26:43
otherwise,
26:43
you're just talking about trying to cut some business deals
26:46
in a semi-totalitarian environment.
26:49
Um,
26:50
you know,
26:50
and you go back to,
26:51
I,
26:51
I don't know.
26:52
It,
26:52
it just seems to me that,
26:53
that,
26:54
um,
26:55
Yeah,
26:55
I worry,
26:55
I guess this is what I'm saying,
26:56
Rick.
26:56
I worry that,
26:57
that
26:58
we're doing what we tend to always do,
27:00
which is we lose interest,
27:01
we move on to other things,
27:03
um,
27:04
you know,
27:04
great,
27:05
we're making lots of money on the oil and gas situation in Venezuela,
27:07
that's good enough.
27:09
Right?
27:09
And then we lose an opportunity.
27:12
You,
27:13
you're,
27:13
you're absolutely right.
27:14
No,
27:14
no,
27:14
you,
27:14
you're absolutely right.
27:15
And,
27:15
and,
27:16
and
27:17
look,
27:17
um,
27:18
our adversaries used Venezuela as an aircraft carrier in,
27:22
in our hemisphere,
27:23
where,
27:24
where the Russians,
27:25
the,
27:25
the Chinese,
27:27
uh,
27:27
the Iranians,
27:28
all,
27:28
you know,
27:29
all of them were able to launch off this aircraft carrier and,
27:32
and spread their,
27:33
their evil
27:34
throughout,
27:35
you know,
27:35
the hemisphere.
27:36
Um,
27:37
we now have an opportunity to make sure that doesn't happen again.
27:41
Uh,
27:41
certainly,
27:42
hopefully in our lifetimes,
27:43
and,
27:43
and actually do something even better,
27:46
bring,
27:46
you know,
27:47
that country
27:48
really close
27:49
to,
27:49
to a,
27:50
a good hardworking relationship with the United States.
27:53
Um,
27:53
what we saw with these drone strikes,
27:55
uh,
27:56
in,
27:56
you know,
27:57
along,
27:57
you know,
27:58
the borders there with Colombia,
28:00
but,
28:00
you know,
28:00
that,
28:01
that's a step in the right direction.
28:02
Um,
28:03
is there collaboration with Venezuela?
28:05
Well,
28:05
I,
28:05
I suspect so if we were able to do it from,
28:07
from their territory and,
28:08
and apparently they were aware of it.
28:11
But,
28:11
um,
28:12
I'll also say,
28:13
you know,
28:14
that,
28:14
that,
28:14
you know,
28:15
ever since
28:16
9/11,
28:17
we fight,
28:18
you know,
28:19
global terrorism wherever it is.
28:20
We always try to work with
28:22
the local governments,
28:24
uh,
28:24
you know,
28:25
and,
28:25
and,
28:25
and cooperate and work with them,
28:27
but that doesn't stop us from killing terrorists if they're in a country that,
28:31
that we don't have relationships with,
28:32
right?
28:32
We,
28:33
we,
28:33
you know,
28:33
we've done that in the past.
28:34
We continue to do that today.
28:36
So,
28:36
you know,
28:37
if,
28:37
if,
28:37
if I was,
28:38
if I was in the Venezuelan military or government,
28:41
and the United States,
28:42
you know,
28:43
uh,
28:43
military came to me and said,
28:44
hey,
28:45
we've identified these,
28:46
these terrorists in your country,
28:49
we're gonna kill them.
28:50
Would you,
28:50
you know,
28:51
would you give us permission to do so?
28:53
And,
28:54
you know,
28:54
what's the answer gonna be,
28:55
right?
28:56
So,
28:56
so,
28:57
so,
28:57
you know,
28:58
I,
28:58
I,
28:58
it's a step in the right direction,
28:59
but I,
29:00
I wouldn't claim that,
29:01
that,
29:01
that somehow we've,
29:02
we've,
29:03
um,
29:04
You know,
29:04
we've,
29:05
uh,
29:05
uh,
29:06
we've harmonized a liaison military relationship
29:10
with,
29:10
with the Venezuelans.
29:11
We are very far
29:13
from that.
29:13
And,
29:14
and,
29:15
and I guarantee you that the,
29:17
the targeting deck and the information and
29:19
the intel that carried that operation out,
29:20
I guarantee that was not shared with anybody on the ground.
29:24
Uh,
29:25
and,
29:25
you know,
29:26
and,
29:26
and occurred,
29:27
and then,
29:27
you know,
29:27
all we got was the lawyers to sign off on it.
29:30
Oh,
29:30
you said yes.
29:31
OK,
29:31
great,
29:31
we'll get back to you.
29:32
And the next thing that happens,
29:34
right,
29:34
we blow up the whole thing,
29:36
right?
29:36
So,
29:37
so,
29:37
so
29:38
I,
29:38
you know,
29:39
the flip side of that is Colombia,
29:40
you know,
29:41
uh,
29:41
Colombia is also coming out now,
29:43
um,
29:44
you know,
29:44
they,
29:44
they,
29:44
they've,
29:44
they've got a government now that is much more supportive,
29:47
much closer.
29:48
We've,
29:48
we've had a long Outstanding working relationship with the Colombian,
29:51
Colombian military.
29:52
Great folks over there.
29:54
Um,
29:54
there's an opportunity now to really put a squeeze play on,
29:58
on,
29:58
on F FARC D,
29:59
ELN,
30:00
these terrorists there,
30:01
because they're originally Colombian.
30:03
Colombia pushed them into Venezuela.
30:05
Whenever Maduro put a squeeze on them,
30:08
they moved on to Ecuador.
30:09
Then when Ecuador was sick of them,
30:11
then they'd moved back to Venezuela,
30:12
then they'd pay off Maduro,
30:14
and then,
30:15
now,
30:15
If you look at the geography under Trump and the amazing stuff he's done there,
30:19
Colombia is aligned.
30:20
Ecuador is aligned.
30:21
Brazil,
30:22
not so much,
30:23
but,
30:24
you know,
30:24
now we're operating militarily in Venezuela too.
30:27
It's a real squeeze play.
30:28
These guys have nowhere to go.
30:29
And,
30:30
and,
30:30
and if you look at those military units,
30:32
what are we talking about?
30:33
About a few 1000 people,
30:34
uh,
30:35
2,
30:36
3000 guerrillas maybe.
30:38
We,
30:38
we could wipe out,
30:39
right?
30:40
Uh,
30:40
just about,
30:41
you know,
30:41
every Marxist military force in that area,
30:44
and that would be the end of that.
30:46
Yeah,
30:46
well,
30:46
it does seem like there's,
30:48
I mean,
30:48
there's certainly been talk about Rubio's talked about,
30:51
you know,
30:51
extending the,
30:52
the cooperation between US and Venezuelan
30:55
militaries and,
30:56
and,
30:57
uh,
30:57
potentially putting
30:58
troops on the ground there,
31:00
whether it's a,
31:00
I
31:01
doubt it would be a permanent base,
31:02
but in some capacity.
31:03
So
31:04
it is a fascinating development,
31:06
Rick,
31:06
um,
31:07
I've got another page and a half of questions for you,
31:09
but I have no time.
31:11
Um,
31:12
so that means,
31:13
that means you gotta come back when we call you again.
31:15
Anytime,
31:16
anytime you do that.
31:17
Excellent,
31:18
man.
31:18
Listen,
31:18
thanks so much.
31:19
I,
31:19
I hope to see you soon.
31:21
Yeah,
31:21
please,
31:22
yeah,
31:22
same here.
31:23
Good luck.
31:23
Talk to you soon.
31:24
Take care.
31:26
That was Rick Deltare,
31:27
former CIA senior officer and former,
31:30
uh,
31:30
station chief in Caracas with some excellent insight
31:33
into what's happening there in Venezuela.
31:35
Night,
31:36
coming up next,
31:37
President Trump
31:38
says Israel
31:39
no longer needs billions in American military.
31:42
Military assistance,
31:42
really,
31:43
who does
31:43
any longer need billions in assistance,
31:46
signaling a major shift in Washington's relationship with Jerusalem.
31:51
We'll get analysis from David Dao.
31:52
You know him.
31:53
He's a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
31:56
So please
31:57
stick around.
31:59
Hey,
31:59
Mike Baker here.
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33:02
Welcome back to The Situation Report.
33:05
President Trump says the US will end nearly $4 billion in
33:09
annual military aid to Israel by the end of this year.
33:13
Trump claims he reached an agreement with Prime Minister Netanyahu,
33:16
arguing that
33:17
Israel no longer needs American financial assistance.
33:21
Washington would continue selling weapons to Israel,
33:23
but the announcement does raise some serious questions.
33:26
The current aid agreement runs through 2028,
33:29
and Congress
33:30
controls the funding.
33:31
Israeli officials were reportedly caught off guard even though Prime
33:35
Minister Netanyahu has talked about this arrangement in the past,
33:39
while critics warn the decision could weaken
33:41
the long-standing alliance.
33:43
Joining me now for more on this is David Dao,
33:45
senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
33:49
David,
33:49
thank you very much
33:51
for the courage that you show in continually coming back on the program.
33:56
You know,
33:57
it's a,
33:57
it's a tough audience here,
33:58
but uh,
33:59
I like a challenge.
34:01
It is,
34:02
it is,
34:02
and,
34:02
and thank you for acknowledging the,
34:04
uh,
34:04
studio audience.
34:05
They're,
34:05
they're they're perfectly quiet,
34:08
being stopped to have them in
34:10
they're all packed with the living room right now as
34:14
the house band,
34:15
uh,
34:16
busy
34:17
working on the theme song for the sit rep.
34:19
Uh,
34:20
well,
34:20
we got lots to,
34:21
we got lots to cover here,
34:22
but
34:23
let's,
34:24
let's start with this,
34:25
this aid.
34:27
Issue,
34:28
right?
34:28
The,
34:28
the,
34:29
it,
34:29
it really,
34:30
it garnered a lot of the headlines.
34:31
The idea that the US is going to put an end
34:34
to,
34:35
uh,
34:35
roughly $4 billion in US
34:38
aid to Israel.
34:40
Um,
34:41
Trump says starting,
34:42
you know,
34:43
end of this year.
34:45
What do you make of this announcement?
34:46
What was the genesis of it,
34:48
um,
34:49
and where do you think this is all going?
34:52
Um,
34:53
well,
34:54
uh,
34:54
simple question,
34:55
not that simple to answer.
34:57
I think that
34:58
that's a very specific question.
35:01
That's why I come on here,
35:02
uh,
35:03
um,
35:04
look,
35:04
I think this has been a long time coming,
35:06
for better or for worse,
35:07
uh,
35:07
the nature of the US-Israel relationship,
35:10
um,
35:10
has been a central question of American political discourse for
35:15
several years now,
35:16
uh,
35:17
particularly after October 7th,
35:19
this came more to the forefront,
35:21
uh.
35:21
And the question of US aid has been,
35:24
or US aid to Israel,
35:25
the $3.8 billion that we we give to Israel annually,
35:28
this has come under increased scrutiny.
35:29
It's in,
35:30
in some ways,
35:31
and you know,
35:32
barely,
35:33
uh,
35:33
in other ways conspiratorially,
35:35
and I think what President Trump was trying to do here was trying to,
35:38
I think he said this,
35:39
right?
35:39
He's trying to get rid of,
35:40
um,
35:41
kind of an easy,
35:42
low hanging fruit.
35:44
Uh,
35:45
target for the other side,
35:46
which has transformed this,
35:48
um,
35:49
again,
35:49
beyond the question of,
35:50
as the United States
35:52
is engaged in the process of reassessing its role in the world,
35:56
um,
35:57
what do we make of the US's relationship and how do we,
36:01
um,
36:01
modify it or change it
36:03
to suit
36:03
our changing needs,
36:05
our changing posture,
36:07
um,
36:07
into something,
36:08
you know,
36:08
that that's a legitimate conversation,
36:10
but it's been made into,
36:11
well,
36:11
you know,
36:13
The reason why your eggs are expensive is because of Israel,
36:15
which is
36:16
insane and ridiculous.
36:18
Um,
36:19
we've seen kind of the impact,
36:20
unfortunately at the polls of of of this narrative.
36:23
I think President Trump was in part trying to um get out of this,
36:27
um.
36:28
Now,
36:28
one of one of this.
36:31
I,
36:31
I,
36:31
I'm sorry for interrupting.
36:32
I
36:33
before I,
36:33
before I forget,
36:34
once an idea
36:35
pops in my head,
36:36
I gotta say it out loud like,
36:37
otherwise forget it.
36:39
Uh,
36:41
the White House has implied,
36:43
and I think,
36:43
um,
36:44
Netanyahu has said as much himself,
36:46
that Netanyahu would actually
36:48
raised this issue
36:50
early in the.
36:50
Year saying,
36:51
you know,
36:52
it's time
36:53
for Israel to,
36:54
you know,
36:55
stop accepting this financial assistance.
36:57
We've become successful,
36:58
uh,
36:59
we can actually afford to pay
37:01
for all this assistance.
37:04
You know,
37:04
from what you're hearing from your sources and contacts,
37:07
um,
37:07
is that correct?
37:08
Did the idea start
37:09
on the Israeli side?
37:11
Well
37:12
if it started on the Israeli side,
37:13
and there's no need,
37:14
no reason to go even beyond what's been publicly disclosed,
37:17
uh,
37:17
Prime Minister Netanyahu has talked about moving towards self-sufficiency,
37:21
autarchy even,
37:22
uh,
37:22
in terms of Israel's,
37:24
uh,
37:25
you know,
37:25
self,
37:25
self-reliance,
37:26
uh,
37:27
even production of weapons,
37:28
whether this is a,
37:29
a realistic prospect moving forward or not that Israel can
37:33
produce domestically all of its,
37:35
uh,
37:35
its military needs or not.
37:36
This is something that Prime Minister Netanyahu has been talking about,
37:39
and it's been
37:39
It's become more central,
37:41
more central part of the political conversation even in Israel for a while,
37:44
and yeah,
37:44
it's as you stated that Israel feels itself in a
37:47
position that it no longer needs to accept this aid and
37:50
it no longer needs this aid,
37:52
and perhaps the price
37:53
that Israel is paying for receiving this aid,
37:57
uh,
37:57
is one of loss of confidence.
38:00
Uh,
38:00
in the American public,
38:02
uh,
38:02
which is translating into,
38:03
you know,
38:04
uh,
38:04
more,
38:05
more critical,
38:05
uh,
38:06
more,
38:06
uh,
38:07
tense relationship,
38:08
political relationship between Israel and the United States.
38:10
So it could be an assessment in Israel that,
38:12
you know,
38:12
what we're getting out of this,
38:14
we don't need,
38:15
we can pay for this ourselves,
38:16
and what we're losing
38:17
credibility among the American people is far more substantial,
38:20
and it's not just Prime Minister Netanyahu.
38:24
You may have heard,
38:25
Israel also had its own elections,
38:26
uh,
38:27
recently,
38:27
and this has been a central plank
38:29
of the opposition as well.
38:31
The changing nature of,
38:32
uh,
38:33
the US public's and US politicians' perception of Israel
38:36
and how to adjust that,
38:37
and part of that is obviously money.
38:40
Yeah,
38:40
it does seem as if they're,
38:41
they're sort of setting the table or trying to get out ahead of,
38:44
of what they're perceiving as a
38:47
real seismic shift in a way,
38:49
um,
38:49
in,
38:50
you know,
38:50
US attitude.
38:51
I'm old enough to remember when
38:52
a lot of the Democratic Party,
38:55
uh,
38:55
were big
38:56
keen supporters
38:57
of,
38:58
uh,
38:58
Israeli assistance.
39:00
So,
39:01
I,
39:01
I can see,
39:02
I could see them,
39:04
although,
39:04
you know,
39:04
then,
39:05
then you have this issue of internal politics
39:06
in Israel because they had Yer Goan and,
39:08
and,
39:09
uh,
39:09
Eisenkott and some others criticizing Netanyahu,
39:12
uh,
39:13
you know,
39:13
trying to make hay off of the fact that,
39:15
well,
39:15
we're gonna lose this.
39:16
What's this gonna mean for Israeli taxes and taxpayers and,
39:19
you know,
39:20
can we fill the gap and yada yada yada.
39:22
So,
39:22
I think internally,
39:23
they're just,
39:23
they're just playing some games there.
39:25
But
39:26
I do,
39:26
it does feel as if
39:28
Um,
39:29
early on,
39:30
I mean,
39:30
not just in the past couple of months,
39:31
but early on in the year,
39:33
probably before then,
39:34
they thought,
39:35
yeah,
39:36
we can,
39:36
we can give this up,
39:38
uh,
39:39
because otherwise,
39:40
you know,
39:40
the,
39:40
the,
39:40
the cost is too great.
39:43
Mhm.
39:43
I agree,
39:44
and look,
39:44
I mean,
39:46
there is a domestic component to this in that,
39:48
OK,
39:49
$3.8 billion
39:51
is also a principal economy,
39:52
it can afford it,
39:53
uh,
39:54
but
39:54
You know,
39:55
the money's gonna have to come from from somewhere,
39:57
this isn't a small amount either,
39:59
and you have a whole segment of the population
40:02
that is not contributing economically or militarily,
40:04
Cost of living is high,
40:06
and this impacts cost of living,
40:07
and there's a huge welfare state
40:09
uh in Israel that's uh used
40:11
or that's that's
40:12
Built to cater to
40:14
the sustenance of this,
40:16
you know,
40:16
the ultra-orthodox community,
40:17
which again is not contributing militarily or economically,
40:20
and the ultra-orthodox issue,
40:22
uh,
40:22
is a central plank of uh all the parties running in opposition to Netanyahu,
40:27
the Zionist parties at least,
40:29
the idea of,
40:30
you know,
40:31
Shiri Bene,
40:32
uh,
40:33
equality of burden and integrating the ultra-orthodox into the mainstream.
40:38
Because
40:39
if it's not done now,
40:40
in 4 years,
40:41
this may be something that Israel can no longer address,
40:44
um,
40:45
in a way that maintains Israel's technological superiority,
40:48
economic superiority,
40:49
uh,
40:50
uh,
40:50
military edge,
40:51
uh,
40:51
and it might have a corrosive impact on Israel's durability as a state.
40:56
Um,
40:57
so,
40:57
you know,
40:57
you can cut the money from here,
40:59
but the money has to come from internal,
41:00
from somewhere internally,
41:01
and I think what what the opposition parties don't want.
41:04
Is that this,
41:05
you know,
41:05
again this welfare,
41:07
uh,
41:08
society or this welfare system,
41:09
uh,
41:10
used to fund,
41:10
uh,
41:11
the,
41:11
the,
41:11
the ultra-orthodox societies already burdening the Israeli taxpayer,
41:14
whose number one issue,
41:15
by the way,
41:15
going to the polls,
41:17
has been cost of living.
41:18
So now what they're saying is you can't burden them even more with more tax.
41:22
Yeah,
41:22
yeah,
41:22
oh,
41:25
you have to be a universal,
41:26
seems,
41:26
yeah,
41:27
it seems to be universal.
41:28
People,
41:28
people like to live comfortably and not like to be able to afford things.
41:32
I don't know.
41:33
The Republican leadership in the US didn't seem to
41:35
get,
41:36
uh,
41:36
get with the idea that one issue.
41:39
Uh,
41:40
so,
41:41
let me ask you this,
41:43
and,
41:43
and,
41:43
you know,
41:44
if you don't have the number off the top of your head,
41:45
you know,
41:46
well,
41:46
then we're just gonna cancel this interview.
41:48
But,
41:48
uh,
41:49
what percentage of
41:51
Israel's population is,
41:52
uh,
41:53
considered ultra-orthodox?
41:55
So right now 14%,
41:57
uh,
41:57
but they're fast,
41:58
they're a very fast growing population,
42:00
I think they've doubled,
42:01
I think it's since 20,
42:02
if I'm remembering the number correctly,
42:04
since 2016 till today,
42:06
the population's number has doubled,
42:08
I think they were like 750,000.
42:10
Uh,
42:10
in 2016,
42:11
and now it's about 1.5 million,
42:13
and they have the highest birth rate in the country,
42:17
uh,
42:17
I think 4 times even,
42:19
if I,
42:19
again,
42:19
don't,
42:20
don't quote me on this one,
42:20
but I,
42:21
I,
42:21
for some reason 4 is popping into my head,
42:23
4 times the rate of,
42:25
um,
42:25
Arab-Israeli Muslims were the second highest,
42:28
uh,
42:28
in terms of,
42:29
uh,
42:30
birth rate.
42:31
So
42:32
fast growing population,
42:34
massive population,
42:35
and they're very young.
42:36
That's the other thing,
42:37
they're very young.
42:38
Uh,
42:38
so a lot of the communities,
42:40
some are in the twenties and they're Israel's youngest population.
42:43
Is there a,
42:44
I don't know where I'm going with this,
42:46
but is there a correlation between
42:48
the ultra-orthodox
42:50
population that exists there
42:51
and some
42:52
outlier in terms of,
42:54
uh,
42:54
unemployment
42:56
number or percentage?
42:57
I mean,
42:57
are they?
43:00
That's all you consider employment.
43:01
Now,
43:02
most,
43:03
they're not employed in a proper sense now,
43:05
or that of ultra-orthodox women aren't largely part of the workforce.
43:09
I think,
43:09
you know,
43:10
something like 80% of of ultra-orthodox women are working,
43:13
and among men it's like closer to 40 or 50%.
43:17
Uh,
43:17
so more women
43:18
work in that community than do the men.
43:21
And it's just hosted.
43:22
What are those,
43:23
what are those dudes up to?
43:25
There's a lot of viewers right now.
43:28
How did they get on?
43:30
Well,
43:30
they're sitting and then learning Torah ostensibly,
43:33
and they're,
43:34
you know,
43:34
the way they're presenting it is they can't do both.
43:37
Even though
43:38
other Israelis,
43:39
including religious Israelis,
43:40
seem to do,
43:41
especially religious Israelis seem to do both,
43:42
right?
43:43
The religious Zionist community,
43:44
for example,
43:45
fully integrated into the Israeli mainstream,
43:48
uh,
43:48
served in the army and finds time to study Torah.
43:51
This has never been like this,
43:52
this,
43:52
this,
43:53
uh,
43:54
you know,
43:54
unsolvable puzzle in Jewish history,
43:57
I mean.
43:58
The rabbis in the Talmud used to compete
44:01
over who,
44:02
uh,
44:02
who had a job,
44:03
right?
44:03
They were,
44:04
they were proud of having a job,
44:06
and they were obviously,
44:07
again,
44:07
the,
44:07
the
44:08
The biggest scholars in Jewish history.
44:11
So,
44:11
but the ultra-orthodox are saying no,
44:12
well we can't
44:13
deviate from Torah study,
44:15
we can't interrupt our Torah study,
44:16
we have to sit and learn Torah all the time.
44:18
Oh and by the way,
44:19
this is what really sustains the state,
44:20
so that's what they're doing.
44:22
Uh,
44:22
now whether that is considered employment in
44:24
Israeli employment statistics is a different issue,
44:26
and also what kind of employment do these people have?
44:30
Again,
44:30
it's the women in these communities that are usually getting the higher
44:33
degrees and working in more professional fields rather than the men.
44:37
OK.
44:37
Well,
44:37
I wanna,
44:38
I wanna move from that,
44:39
but I did find that interesting because again,
44:41
what you talked about in terms of
44:42
how they view the economy
44:44
and the welfare state and what that may mean and something where you,
44:48
where,
44:48
yes,
44:48
they are gonna have to cover this gap in the,
44:50
in the,
44:50
in,
44:51
in
44:51
financial assistance.
44:52
But again,
44:53
the government
44:54
and,
44:54
and most elements of the government seem on board with the concept.
44:57
So,
44:57
I suspect that's,
44:58
that's moving forward.
44:59
Then it becomes an issue of
45:01
US administration,
45:02
regulatory policies,
45:03
legislation.
45:04
How do you,
45:04
how do you kind of get that?
45:06
To a position where you can say,
45:07
OK,
45:08
we're not providing this assistance even though it's been
45:10
covered or essentially
45:12
accounted for through 2028.
45:14
Um,
45:15
man,
45:16
that made me sound like a policy wonk.
45:18
Uh,
45:19
you're not at all,
45:19
you're not at all.
45:22
Oh,
45:22
you're right.
45:22
You're right on
45:23
point.
45:25
Uh,
45:26
so
45:27
if you'll stay right where you are,
45:28
we've got,
45:29
uh,
45:29
a bunch more questions to throw your way,
45:31
but we'll be back with more from David Daoud here on the Situation Report.
45:35
So please stick around.
45:38
Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report.
45:41
Joining us once again is senior fellow
45:42
at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies,
45:44
David Dao.
45:45
David,
45:45
thank you very much for,
45:46
for staying put.
45:48
Uh,
45:48
we've been talking about the,
45:50
the announcement
45:52
of the uh aid cut to Israel.
45:55
Um,
45:58
You know,
45:58
I,
45:58
I just want to touch on this and then I wanna get to the recent,
46:01
uh,
46:01
elections in Israel and,
46:03
and particularly
46:04
kind of the part that the Arab parties might be playing
46:07
going forward.
46:08
Um,
46:09
but
46:10
Uh,
46:10
Vice President JD Vance
46:12
came out over the past couple of days with a fairly lengthy,
46:15
I don't know how long he spent typing it,
46:17
uh,
46:18
social media,
46:19
uh,
46:19
script saying,
46:20
you know,
46:21
this is why the Republicans lost.
46:23
Well,
46:24
you know,
46:24
might have been due to,
46:26
uh,
46:26
a variety of factors,
46:27
but he put it down essentially to the war in Iran.
46:30
Uh,
46:30
and he also cited
46:32
as something that has to be addressed
46:34
is the relationship going forward with Israel.
46:38
Now
46:40
I mean,
46:40
obviously,
46:41
we talked on,
46:42
in the first segment,
46:43
we talked a bit about sort of the,
46:44
the,
46:45
the left,
46:46
the,
46:46
the Democrat Party,
46:48
uh,
46:48
kind of a sea change that we were seeing here in terms of
46:51
how they view Israel.
46:52
They're,
46:52
they're much,
46:53
you know,
46:53
more
46:54
hardcore or hawks on the Ukraine conflict
46:57
than they are on this,
46:58
this Iran issue.
47:00
Uh,
47:01
but
47:02
How do you interpret Vance's comment there?
47:06
Um,
47:06
I think it's positioning.
47:07
Look,
47:08
uh,
47:08
you know,
47:09
there's not one factor that led to this,
47:12
this,
47:12
this change,
47:13
right?
47:13
The Trump administration's been
47:14
in,
47:15
in office for 2 years,
47:16
and,
47:16
you know,
47:17
the Trump administration came to office on the promise of,
47:21
You know,
47:22
MAGA 2.0,
47:23
which was to,
47:24
you know,
47:24
put more money in our pockets,
47:26
lower the cost of living.
47:27
Again,
47:27
there's that cost of living thing,
47:29
uh,
47:29
deal with immigration properly,
47:31
seal the southern border,
47:33
and there were a lot of promises that were made,
47:35
um,
47:35
and the cost of living has not gone down and.
47:38
Again,
47:38
I think polling here also showed that cost of living was the number one issue.
47:42
Again,
47:42
surprise,
47:43
surprise.
47:43
That is not to say that the Iran war has
47:46
had no impact on the choice that Americans made,
47:49
uh,
47:50
when they went to the,
47:51
to the polling stations.
47:52
Um,
47:52
part of it,
47:53
I think,
47:53
um.
47:54
Is the failure of the administration,
47:56
uh,
47:58
wars obviously impact the bottom line of the average American,
48:01
right?
48:01
Oil prices did go up,
48:02
right,
48:03
the,
48:03
the,
48:03
the money that the average American had to put out
48:06
on a day to day basis went up.
48:08
Uh,
48:08
again,
48:08
it's not the only thing that affected it,
48:10
but I think the average American couldn't understand why
48:13
do we have to go to war with Iran,
48:14
and that's something this administration failed to do,
48:16
which is to explain the danger
48:18
that.
48:18
Iranian regime
48:20
poses
48:21
not just to
48:22
Israel's existence,
48:23
right,
48:23
because it's inflated in the old curve for destruction,
48:25
not just to our partners in the Middle East,
48:26
not just to our Middle Eastern interests,
48:28
but ultimately to our way of life
48:30
at home.
48:30
And it's not as uh,
48:31
you know,
48:32
as,
48:32
as
48:32
comical as something like,
48:33
you know,
48:33
Iranian
48:35
soldiers marching down the streets of Washington.
48:36
No,
48:37
no,
48:37
no.
48:37
Iran wants to,
48:38
in the Middle East and with this global alliance
48:41
of similar.
48:43
diminish our
48:44
global reach,
48:46
break the international order that we built on
48:48
off of American blood after World War II.
48:51
Uh,
48:51
and through doing that kind of put us into a corner to where we're just,
48:54
another second-rate country,
48:55
and eventually they can dictate to us,
48:57
including how we live our lives here.
48:59
That's something that was not explained to the American people.
49:01
So I think what Vice President Vance is trying to do,
49:03
look,
49:03
what,
49:03
what is,
49:04
what is this saying?
49:05
Uh,
49:05
defeat is,
49:06
is an orphan.
49:07
Um,
49:07
he's,
49:08
he's clearly positioning himself for,
49:10
uh,
49:10
a run in 2028.
49:12
Um,
49:12
like,
49:12
the,
49:13
you know,
49:13
Trump,
49:13
President Trump only has 22 more years left,
49:17
um,
49:18
and I think what he's trying to do is position himself as the guy who
49:22
warned about this,
49:23
and,
49:23
you know,
49:24
even though he's in the administration,
49:25
it's like,
49:26
guys,
49:26
guys,
49:27
this thing that you don't like,
49:28
I had nothing to do with it.
49:29
I was the other guy.
49:31
He's been,
49:31
he's been more vocal.
49:32
You're absolutely right.
49:33
Um,
49:34
recently,
49:35
leading into the midterm election and just immediately afterwards
49:38
about,
49:39
you know,
49:39
trying to remind people,
49:40
you remember I was privately,
49:42
I was really against this,
49:43
you know,
49:44
but then I did go along.
49:45
Um,
49:47
so,
49:47
I,
49:47
I get that part.
49:49
It's the,
49:50
it's the changing relationship with
49:52
Israel,
49:53
which seems to be almost him,
49:56
um,
49:57
trying to placate.
49:59
Whether we're talking about independents or sort of center
50:03
Democrats or center-left,
50:04
whatever.
50:05
Uh,
50:05
it seems like,
50:06
so I,
50:06
I guess that's all part and parcel of just trying to set the table for 2028 perhaps.
50:11
I,
50:11
I,
50:12
I think so.
50:12
Look,
50:12
I think he's trying to build as
50:14
what we've learned even when President,
50:16
with President Trump uh winning,
50:17
winning,
50:17
winning the last election,
50:18
wasn't just,
50:19
you know,
50:20
lifelong Republicans that voted for him,
50:22
large blocks of,
50:23
of,
50:24
you know,
50:24
voters came from independents and
50:26
right now,
50:27
unfortunately the Israel issue is not a very popular issue uh among,
50:30
among Americans,
50:31
and I think.
50:31
What he's trying to do is position himself as the Republican
50:34
who will change the nature of the U.S.Israel relationship in a way that aligns
50:38
with this growing skepticism to the rela towards
50:41
the relationship and even hostility towards the relationship
50:43
uh among independents.
50:45
And
50:45
again,
50:46
if you can pull away some Democrats,
50:47
why the heck not?
50:48
That's more numbers for you.
50:49
Um,
50:50
so,
50:50
I think to have this in the.
50:51
Bag,
50:52
he's trying to,
50:52
you know,
50:53
where Israel,
50:54
where support for Israel used to be a bipartisan issue,
50:57
I think now unfortunately the shift is that
50:58
hostility towards Israel is becoming,
51:01
uh,
51:01
you know,
51:02
a cross-partisan issue,
51:03
and
51:04
Vice President Vance is trying to tap into
51:06
that sentiment to make sure that he doesn't lose
51:09
the voters over the Israel issue come 2028.
51:12
And what,
51:12
what primarily accounts for that,
51:14
that shift in from your perspective,
51:16
you spent a lot of time in this
51:18
arena kind of studying
51:20
uh the region and
51:22
US relationships with
51:23
that region.
51:24
What do you think accounts primarily for this shift that we're seeing?
51:28
I think there's several factors.
51:30
First of all,
51:30
the October 7th war happened at a
51:33
time when the United States was already reassessing
51:36
its role in the world,
51:37
and that was independent of,
51:38
of,
51:39
of Israel,
51:40
um,
51:41
and this,
51:41
this war happened to happen at that moment where we were already going,
51:45
whether
51:45
right or left in a more
51:47
isolationist,
51:48
uh,
51:48
if you want to call it that,
51:49
or more America first direction.
51:51
I mean,
51:51
one thing I've been highlighting the irony is that
51:53
you have people who are on the far left,
51:55
uh,
51:56
who.
51:56
Two or 3 years ago were calling America,
51:58
you know,
51:58
irredeemably,
52:00
uh,
52:01
exceptionally evil,
52:01
a systemic racist,
52:02
a systemically racist country,
52:04
conspiracy theory now positioning themselves as the America firsters.
52:08
Um,
52:09
right,
52:09
and it's because they're trying to tap into the sentiments.
52:11
So
52:12
at a time where America's going this way,
52:14
Israel's needs went the other way,
52:15
needing American support,
52:17
needing,
52:17
uh,
52:18
American,
52:18
uh,
52:19
American,
52:19
uh,
52:19
help,
52:20
uh,
52:20
needing American aid.
52:22
Another thing happened also,
52:23
you had the growth of anti-Semitism.
52:25
Um,
52:25
and at a time where Americans kind of got tired of,
52:28
uh,
52:29
what they,
52:29
what they felt as,
52:30
uh,
52:31
you know,
52:31
speech policing and,
52:33
you know,
52:33
cries of racism and feeling that they were being silenced with cries of racism,
52:37
the Jewish community,
52:38
uh,
52:38
raised the alarm about growing anti-Semitism.
52:41
Um,
52:41
and this didn't,
52:42
this kind of was out of lockstep with,
52:44
with the American electorate.
52:45
You also had a concerted effort by people
52:48
who don't want to see Israel exist.
52:50
Uh,
52:50
to create a narrative
52:52
that demonized Israel,
52:54
um,
52:54
and its conduct of the war.
52:56
And also,
52:56
look,
52:57
let's not forget the Israeli contribution to this in the sense that look,
53:00
like every war there's going to be horrific scenes that come out of it,
53:03
there's gonna be war crimes.
53:05
The Israelis did not do enough to kind of get ahead of that in terms of their PR
53:08
and there were ministers in the government who were
53:11
either saying or doing things,
53:13
uh,
53:13
that made it,
53:14
um,
53:14
you know,
53:16
Very difficult for even centrist Republicans or Democrats,
53:19
politically costly to come out and say we're supporting Israel,
53:22
we're we're backing Israel.
53:23
So a lot of different factors.
53:25
Again,
53:25
perhaps the Iran war
53:26
contributed to that,
53:27
but you know,
53:28
it was like this perfect storm of a moment for this war to happen
53:32
when American sentiment was already
53:34
going in a different direction,
53:35
irrespective of,
53:37
of what the Israelis were doing or not doing.
53:39
Yeah,
53:40
no,
53:40
I think there's a lot there within what you've
53:43
been saying.
53:44
I mean,
53:44
looking at the Iran conflict,
53:45
I think the Trump administration did a terrible job of explaining themselves.
53:49
Um,
53:49
you,
53:50
you,
53:50
if you say that it's imminent,
53:51
that this problem is imminent,
53:52
you have to,
53:53
you have to figure out a way to declassify something
53:57
to back that up with some level of evidence.
54:00
Again,
54:00
you're not gonna blow sources and methods,
54:02
but you're going to have to
54:04
be a little bit more.
54:05
were clear and their messaging has always been
54:07
kind of abysmal,
54:08
you know,
54:08
regardless of what the subject is.
54:10
So they didn't do themselves any favors.
54:13
I think the,
54:14
the,
54:14
the vast majority of,
54:16
of Americans
54:18
looked at what happened on October 7th and were horrified,
54:21
absolutely horrified.
54:22
But at the same time,
54:23
then shortly after had a hard time squaring what was they were seeing in Gaza
54:27
as being some sort of proportionate response.
54:30
And I think that was a,
54:31
a,
54:32
a major issue on their,
54:33
their,
54:34
their plate,
54:34
but
54:35
Um,
54:36
let me ask you about this in the time that we've got left.
54:39
The elections that just took place,
54:41
you know,
54:41
nobody got a majority.
54:43
So now,
54:43
once again,
54:44
you've got smaller parties,
54:46
uh,
54:47
potentially acting as kingmakers.
54:48
These parties have to come together.
54:50
They have to
54:51
agree to work together as,
54:52
as a coalition
54:53
in order then
54:54
to have
54:55
the president turn around and say,
54:56
OK,
54:57
I want you,
54:57
Netanyahu,
54:58
or whomever to form a government.
55:00
Uh,
55:00
the Arab parties
55:02
had a historic showing there in Israel,
55:04
which probably
55:05
surprises a lot of people that don't understand the demographics of Israel.
55:09
Talk to me about that and,
55:10
and,
55:10
and what role the parties may play.
55:13
So they went from being the lowest,
55:15
lowest,
55:15
uh,
55:16
turnout to lowest involvement demographic to,
55:18
I think they,
55:19
the,
55:19
the,
55:19
the turnout from the Arab community in Israel
55:22
even outdid the turnout from the Jewish,
55:24
uh,
55:24
the Jewish sector.
55:25
Uh,
55:26
so more,
55:26
more percentage of Arab Israelis came out than,
55:28
than Jews.
55:29
The problem is,
55:30
um,
55:30
you know,
55:31
look,
55:31
that should give,
55:32
uh,
55:34
Got the Eisenko technically a majority,
55:35
and today there are now there are consultations
55:38
uh
55:38
between
55:39
the president of Israel and these various parties,
55:41
and for those who can speak Hebrew
55:42
or understand it,
55:43
I highly recommend watching these consultations because they're,
55:46
they're fully recorded,
55:47
they're fully,
55:48
you know,
55:48
they're put up on the,
55:49
on the president's YouTube channel,
55:51
and basically he sits down with the delegations from these parties and
55:54
talks to them about the issues and what he's trying to.
55:56
Emphasize
55:57
is unity and compromise.
55:59
Um,
55:59
and when it comes to the Arab parties,
56:00
the main sticking issues,
56:02
right,
56:02
and,
56:02
and not all of them,
56:03
you can't lump them all together because you have Mansour Abbas's party,
56:05
which is highly,
56:06
much more highly pragmatic and much more willing
56:08
to pursue a course of Arab-Israeli integration
56:11
into Israel as a Jewish state,
56:13
and that's,
56:14
that's a critical point.
56:15
The joint list parties,
56:17
uh,
56:17
kind of what,
56:17
what,
56:18
you know.
56:19
The,
56:19
so that accounts for 8 of the 19 seats that were won by Arab parties in,
56:24
in this election.
56:25
The remaining 11 were won by the joint list.
56:27
The joint list,
56:28
uh,
56:29
it's constituent parties,
56:30
you know,
56:30
it's made up of 3 parties,
56:32
and this,
56:32
this coalition.
56:33
Um,
56:34
are explicitly anti-Zionist,
56:36
uh,
56:36
want to shrink the budget of the IDF,
56:39
uh,
56:39
are against the integration of Arab-Israelis into Israeli society.
56:44
They're opposed to what they call Israelization of Arab Israelis,
56:47
and they want to,
56:48
they want
56:49
to promote a feeling of connection between Arab Israelis and
56:52
Palestinians and Palestinian national identity.
56:54
Um,
56:55
you know,
56:55
they refuse to call Hamas a terrorist organization.
56:58
Their,
56:58
their conception of who is the regional threat,
57:01
uh,
57:02
differs fundamentally from Jewish Israelis,
57:03
right?
57:04
They view Israel
57:05
as the regional threat rather than viewing Israel as viewing,
57:07
as,
57:08
as,
57:08
as,
57:08
as,
57:08
you know,
57:09
confronting regional threats.
57:11
And so because of that they wanna,
57:12
they don't want ultra-orthodox conscription,
57:14
they.
57:14
The IDF,
57:15
which they view
57:16
as an inherently negative organization,
57:18
to be,
57:18
to be weaker,
57:19
uh,
57:19
both in terms of its budget and its personnel.
57:22
But it seems like they're trying to be pragmatic.
57:23
I don't know,
57:24
today I haven't been,
57:25
I've been on interviews all day,
57:26
uh,
57:27
but,
57:27
uh,
57:27
I got a snippet.
57:28
I got to see a snippet of some of these consultations,
57:31
uh,
57:31
including the President Hertzog speaking to,
57:33
um,
57:34
Yusuf al Jabarin,
57:35
who's the chairman
57:37
of uh of,
57:38
of the joint list,
57:39
and he asked them specifically what happens if Israel
57:42
is going to be confronted with some kind of regional security situation,
57:45
you know,
57:45
we're having to go to war with Hamas or Hezbollah or Iran.
57:48
Where are you going to sit on this if
57:49
you're either supporting the government from the inside,
57:51
which doesn't seem like they're going
57:53
to do,
57:53
or,
57:53
you know,
57:54
providing the 61 from outside of the government,
57:56
which you can do,
57:57
right,
57:57
as long as you,
57:58
as long as the government has the votes,
57:59
it doesn't matter if they're part of the coalition or not.
58:01
And they said,
58:02
look,
58:03
we didn't,
58:03
uh,
58:04
it's a very vague answer
58:06
that,
58:06
that,
58:06
uh,
58:07
Jabarin gave,
58:08
but effectively,
58:09
he said,
58:10
we didn't
58:11
come here to get Netanyahu out of power so we could pave the way for his return.
58:15
Um,
58:15
so what we're going to do is look at our,
58:18
um,
58:18
our,
58:18
our broader strategy and,
58:20
and,
58:20
and work in accordance with that.
58:22
Now what What does that mean practically?
58:23
I don't know.
58:25
Uh,
58:25
I think it's deliberately vague.
58:26
Does that mean that come the moment,
58:28
uh,
58:29
if Israel has to go to war because they have,
58:31
they,
58:31
they view these the jointless views that it has bigger priorities than squabbling
58:36
with the Jewish-Israeli majority on Israel's security needs,
58:38
that
58:38
they're going to act pragmatically or like at least not oppose
58:42
an Israeli military action that the rest of the country views as necessary.
58:47
Perhaps,
58:47
perhaps,
58:48
uh,
58:48
it remains to be seen,
58:49
but.
58:50
This is much more flexibility than we've seen from these parties in the past,
58:54
um,
58:55
and that's important because on its face,
58:57
if you look at what the Zionist opposition parties ran on,
59:00
that,
59:01
you know,
59:01
all of them,
59:02
uh,
59:03
sitting with parties that are for universal conscription,
59:06
uh,
59:06
Jewish and democratic nature of,
59:08
of the country,
59:09
uh,
59:09
going after Hamas and the security threats,
59:11
right?
59:11
There's not that much of a difference,
59:13
if at all,
59:14
in terms of the
59:15
framing of the.
59:16
Threats that,
59:17
that,
59:17
that face Israel all the way from the left to the,
59:19
you know,
59:19
to Bengvir.
59:20
Uh,
59:21
all Israelis,
59:22
all Jewish Israelis,
59:22
all the parties view,
59:24
uh,
59:24
Iran as a threat,
59:25
Hezbollah is a threat,
59:26
Hamas is a threat.
59:26
The question is how do you deal with them,
59:28
uh,
59:28
how do you get rid of these threats?
59:30
Um,
59:31
so,
59:31
you know,
59:32
on its face,
59:32
the platforms of the joint list and the
59:34
platforms of the Zionist opposition parties are irreconcilable,
59:39
but politics is,
59:40
you know,
59:40
the art of the possible,
59:41
so.
59:42
It remains to be seen what the Arab parties are going to,
59:46
uh,
59:47
how much flexibility either side can show so that there can be kind of a,
59:50
a,
59:51
a,
59:51
a government that's birthed,
59:52
and what we see from President Herzog,
59:54
the one thing he keeps asking all parties,
59:56
um,
59:57
that I've watched even yesterday,
59:58
uh,
59:58
is,
59:59
what do,
59:59
you know,
59:59
what are you willing to compromise?
1:00:01
What,
1:00:01
how are you,
1:00:01
are you willing to sit with the other side?
1:00:03
What if,
1:00:03
you know,
1:00:04
What,
1:00:04
what,
1:00:04
what if you were seated in a government
1:00:06
with someone from the entirely opposite political,
1:00:08
political
1:00:08
part of the spectrum,
1:00:09
what are you willing to do?
1:00:10
He wants to avoid second elections,
1:00:11
he's trying to get everyone to come to the table,
1:00:14
so we'll see.
1:00:16
Yeah,
1:00:16
compromise.
1:00:17
Well,
1:00:17
there's a thought.
1:00:18
Listen,
1:00:18
David,
1:00:19
thank you,
1:00:19
man.
1:00:20
Uh,
1:00:21
great stuff,
1:00:21
really,
1:00:22
really interesting,
1:00:23
and,
1:00:23
and as always,
1:00:24
we obviously very much appreciate your insight.
1:00:27
Um,
1:00:28
and I look forward to the next conversation,
1:00:30
uh,
1:00:30
which hopefully will
1:00:31
not be too Far down the road,
1:00:32
I have a feeling that uh
1:00:34
after this midterm elections,
1:00:36
something's going to happen.
1:00:37
Either we get a negotiated settlement with the Iran conflict or,
1:00:41
or we end up,
1:00:42
you know,
1:00:42
launching new military strikes and,
1:00:44
you know,
1:00:44
either way that goes,
1:00:46
we look forward to having you back.
1:00:48
My pleasure.
1:00:49
Whenever there's problems,
1:00:50
call me.
1:00:51
David Dowd Foundation for Defense of Democracy is a great guy.
1:00:55
Well,
1:00:55
that's all the time we have for this week's PDB situation report.
1:00:58
Look,
1:00:58
if you have any questions or comments,
1:00:59
and I hope you do,
1:01:01
well,
1:01:02
write them down,
1:01:03
fax them to me,
1:01:04
or maybe not,
1:01:05
you know,
1:01:05
just put them on a postcard or
1:01:07
a tele.
1:01:08
I'm not sure.
1:01:09
Possibly an email is the most efficient thing to do.
1:01:12
Just
1:01:12
reach out to me at PDB@hefirstv.com.
1:01:15
And you know what we do with a lot of those questions.
1:01:17
We try to mush them together every month.
1:01:19
Sometimes we're speedier at it than other times depending on travel,
1:01:22
and we put them into an episode we call Ask Me Anything.
1:01:26
Yeah,
1:01:26
yeah,
1:01:26
within reason.
1:01:27
Uh,
1:01:28
so there you go.
1:01:28
Keep your cards and letters coming and finally,
1:01:30
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1:01:31
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1:01:33
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1:01:39
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1:01:42
I'm Mike Baker and until next time,
1:01:44
you know the drill,
1:01:45
Stay informed,
1:01:46
stay safe,
1:01:48
stay cool.