Latest / AG Bull / Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | War & Weather Grains Pop

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Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | War & Weather Grains Pop · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_03: Welcome back, everybody.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_03: Tom Grossofi, AgBO Media AgBull Trading.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_03: You're listening to Weesmeyer's Perspectives.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_03: Well, I drove from Valparaiso, Indiana to Nashville today.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_03: It's about 3:30 central time.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_03: Jim and I are going over our notes, and well, we're going to talk about volatility, weather, geopolitics, and how that affects the markets.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_03: I want to take a second to tell you what I do during the day.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_03: I'm a commodity broker and a commodity trader.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_03: I own a seat at the Board of Trade.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_03: I participated in markets for a long time.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_03: This combination of Tommy and Jim, this is an interesting duo, you get to see.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_03: And I want to ask you to drop a note below.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_03: Why do you watch this show?
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_03: And I mean that seriously, because we're watching the amount of hours that people consume Wees Myers Perspectives, it's just going up and up and up.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_03: If you could do us a favor, this show is currently free.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_03: I can't say it'll always be free, but right now it's free.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_03: And if you enjoy this show, when you hear this came out on Sunday or Monday and you're watching it, text it to a friend.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_03: Hopefully they click like and subscribe and enjoy it as much as you do.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_03: But to enjoy it, we got to bring the star of the show in.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_03: You stay right there, we'll bring them in.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: It's got a little jazz in it, and I like jazz.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, we need a little quieter because of the what you mentioned, the volatility.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, we we have it in spades coming up at the beginning of the week.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: You said ever ever since after July 4th, and then this past week's USDA crop production and WASDI reports, coupled with this weather uh significance, the demand pull markets that we have, especially in corn, and the geopolitics with Iran, US, back to Tit versus Tat, and and and uh some other other volatility measures that we'll talk about in Ukraine and and Russia.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: So we're ready to get through it, Tommy, and let's go to the market uh you know section first.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_03: Absolutely, Jim.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_03: I got her all queued up for you.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_03: What an exciting week to bring these prices.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_03: Do tell my friend.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_00: Look at the right-hand side, the weekly change.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: Look at corn, just uh up almost 20 cents, 19 and a half cents.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_00: So I mean 43 cents.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: That's a combination.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_00: China's coming in to buy.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: And I mean, when you add up the tonnages from USDA's flash reports, the weekly report, and take maybe the bulk of the undowned destinations, they're at that 1 million metric ton area, Tommy.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: So I think all those naysayers are gonna have to be wrong again, and that's a good thing for soybean prices.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: Meal, up 14 uh bucks.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: Look at oil.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: That that's been on the downturn, but uh it was up 358 points.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: Uh wheat, wow, look at wheat, soft red, 40 cents, hard red winter, call it uh 38 cents rounded, 33 cents for spring wheat.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: That was a combination of USDA confirming what we thought, but even lower crop, and some weather wools in in Europe.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: And of course, that also bled into the corn market, where the markets finally we've talked about it for weeks, that they're finally focusing on the burning spigot called uh French corn.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: Cotton, they needed a rebound, and we got one up 442 points for the week.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we're up.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_00: We closed at 80, call it 81 and a half cents.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_00: And wow, that was up just at 91 points from Thursday's market.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: So we we had a good day.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: Cattle have been hit hard lately, Tommy.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: And I'll let you go through, you know, some of the reasons there.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_03: Sure.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_03: Well, Jim, looking at this cattle market, I'll pop my pretty face in there, if you can call it a pretty face.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_03: The cattle market one, it's got to deal with these higher grain prices.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_03: These things don't just, you know, they don't run on battery, they run on grain and wheat and feed them anything.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_03: And same thing with the hogs.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_03: So their cost, you know, interest rates have been creeping up.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_03: Never in the history, if anyone's out there who raises cattle, never in the history has it been more expensive to buy a load of cattle.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_03: Now, maybe there are a few bucks off all-time highs, and we do see sell-offs sometimes early in the morning, and then the cash markets kick in and the market claws back.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_03: Those prices, Jim, aren't nearly as bad as they were at one point on Friday.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_03: I do want to tell everyone though, when you see those wheat weekly closes before the USDA report on Friday, Border Trade and Casey Wheat, a few minutes for the report, and that report, folks, came out 11 o'clock central, they were up 30 cents, and Minneapolis was up about 16.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_03: So a lot of that wheat move came almost in just a day, day and a half's trade.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_03: And we'll get to why that happened here in a little bit.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_03: I did talk to a good friend of mine, his name's Chad Layman from uh Eureka, Illinois, and he said, Tommy, this hog market just isn't good.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_03: We went through what was supposed to be one of the most prop, you know, the third quarter is profitable, Jim, oftentimes for hog producers with Father's Day, 4th of July grilling season.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_03: America turned 250.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_03: You tell me people didn't consume a lot of products.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_03: And with that, the hog market's still soft.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_03: That's very uh concerning, Jim.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: We'll have to I'll look into the hog market to see what my veteran traders are saying.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe we'll have a report next week for him, Tommy.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_03: That sounds good.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_03: And also, folks, I just want to pop on here.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_03: Chad Lehman will be on in a few weeks, and he's gonna be on.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_03: I don't know if y'all are catching it, but our we got a show in the afternoon that's something else.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_03: I like the morning show too, but Davis in the afternoons is just he's doing so well.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_03: Look at that guy right there.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_03: That's uh Ag Squawk in the afternoon with host Davis Michelson.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_03: You could find that anywhere you like to consume content.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_03: Uh, we have ag squawk AM with Mr.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_03: Jed Sidwell and myself.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_03: Share that spot, but on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, click like and subscribe.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_03: Those shows are free, and I have no intention of making them not free.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_03: Now, not everything's free, Jim.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, sometimes free is too expensive, and that's why we have the uh pay for platform two$25 a month,$250 annually.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_03: If you like it, subscribe.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_03: What could you get a taste for?
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_03: Now, our dear friend recorded with us last week, and if you are an Ag Bull subscriber, Monday afternoon you will be getting this right here.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_03: This is a doozy, Mr.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_03: Paul Nefer, the Ag CPA, exclusively for Ag Bull subscribers.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_03: Of course, we do a lot more with our subscriber service.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_03: We have, you know, what my daughter said on the way here, she goes, Dad, I think the single best thing you have on that subscriber package is those text alerts, Jim.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_03: And a lot of the information I'm putting on those text alerts comes from you.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_00: They're called teasers, they're called teasers, and they're good.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: Mentioning Paul Nefer, he makes tax and some government uh farm policy make sense and in English, even from a tax person.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: I think brilliant.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_03: He so he really is, he really is breaks it down so we can all understand.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_03: That's what we're gonna do in today's show.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_03: Let's bring it in here.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_03: We went through markets, all right.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_00: USDA reports, we're gonna bottom line it because we've got a lot to talk about, but USDA estimated the smallest U.S.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_00: wheat crop since 1970.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_00: That was your headline, at to just a little over one.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_00: Full disclosure, folks.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_03: I was not born yet.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_03: I was not born.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_03: Where were you in 1970?
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_00: I was just uh uh leaving college to go to my first job in that something.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_03: Oh man, I could just I couldn't imagine you as a youngster.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_03: When I see you as a youngster, you know what I think of.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_03: What's that?
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_03: I I think of this the police.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_03: I know you probably got picked up a few times.
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_00: No, I if they would have had Redlin, I would have been on it, but they didn't.
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_03: So uh thank God they didn't have cameras back then.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_03: That's all I can say.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I survived that one.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_00: Winter wheat production fell to 990 million bushels.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_00: That was down 29 from a year ago, Tommy.
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_00: The planes drought really hammered that hard red winter wheat crop.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_00: We knew it, but Kansas output is down 43 percent.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_00: So the wheat ending stocks, and this is why, whenever you're uh dropping carryover, that's not a bear market.
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_00: Wheat ending stocks dropped to 722 million bushels, that's down 22 percent from last year.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_00: We had larger Russian, Ukrainian, and Argentine crops.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_00: Now that limited the the the wheat price gains, and that was wheat, but we're gonna get into that real reason.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: I think wheat went up was Ukraine and Russia in the Azov Sea.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_00: But well, that's our next item.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_00: Now, corn corn ending stocks were cut a little more than the market thought.
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_00: 170 million bushels to 1.79 billion you know bushels on stronger feed use and exports, and they don't have much, if any, U.S.
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_00: corn exports to China in that number.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_03: I see that.
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_03: That's amazing, Jim.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and then look at the corn yield.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_00: Of course, they kept it, they didn't have a survey.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_00: This was not a survey, that's coming August 12th in the first survey estimate of corn and soybean yields.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_00: But the corn yield is forecast in their implied SD at 183 bushels an acre, making those August estimates critical, Tommy.
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_00: And you had a 3.7 million ton cut to that uh EU corn crop that's been heat and drought stressed, and that could go down further.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: The market's finally paying attention to that now.
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_00: Soybean production, a lot of people called it neutral, but a lot of people call it a little friendly.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_00: Production rose 40 million bushels, but stronger exports absorbed that increase.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and soybean stocks uh held at 310 million bushels.
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_00: Now, that's still adequate, but if China keeps on buying US soybeans, which they will, you know, based on our sources, that means that ending stocks will probably go lower.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: And once you get into that 280 to 300 million bushels, that's pipeline stuff there.
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_00: So yes, yes.
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_00: Rice production, I just not corn and soybeans here.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_00: Rice production was slashed a slash nearly 13%, and that cut ending stocks 28%.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_00: Cotton rice needs help.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: Cotton production and stocks were increased, keeping those price prospects subdued.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_00: So we got a little negative on cotton, but they went along for the ride in this in the in the marketplace Friday.
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_00: As we said before, USDA's August 12th survey-based corn and soybean yield estimates are going to be key, Tommy.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, and I have that pop up.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_03: Explain to us, Jim, in the best way you can.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_03: Why is USDA August 12th report so important in your opinion?
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_00: Well, first survey-based estimate and coupled with the relatively looks like high yields that uh trend line yields they have factored in to their current supply demand balance.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_00: So I we're gonna get to the weather eventually.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_00: Let's do the Russia first, and then let's get into some of this weather because that's what's driving the market this weekend and and we'll on this Monday.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_03: This one's interesting, number three, because when you and I woke up and you you and I both wake up early on Friday, the wheat market was lower at five, six o'clock central.
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_03: It went from down five six cents to about up 20, real close to that.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_03: Before the uh I call it the biscuit break at 7:45 Central when the electronic market shut off a little bit.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_03: But do tell what happened here, Mr.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_00: Well, Tommy, you're the one who alerted this is how we work really good together.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_00: Tommy text me saying, Hey, this Azov C area, there's been drones, it's affecting the shipping through the Kerch uh Strait and the Don Azov uh channel.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_00: And that's all I needed.
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_00: I searched, I called around to veteran traders and analysts that I know.
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_00: It forced Russia to suspend shipping through the Kerch Strait.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_00: We have a map there, Tommy.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, you want to see the map real quick?
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_00: I want to see the map and then I'll explain it.
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_00: And the Don Azov channel that's disrupted the key wheat export corridor that handles roughly one quarter of Russia's wheat exports.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_00: That's why we we uh bumped up that 20 cents that you mentioned.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_00: The strikes hit more than 20 vessels in recent days.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_00: The Euro text wheat futures, that's the wheat futures.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_03: The Matif, the Matif, I believe.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that that jumped four percent on the concerns, and that's what got the market going.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Russia's major Black Sea export terminals remain open.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_00: Now that's limiting the impact.
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_00: So let's have balance here.
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_00: Now, prolonged disruptions, if they uh continue, would raise the freight, insurance, and transportation cost in that area.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: And but if the closures are brief, the market gains are gonna fade.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_00: So sustained drone attacks make Russian wheat exports less reliable and support for overall global wheat markets.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_00: That's what all that that little item that Tommy texts me in one one line that that uh that's how that's significant.
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_00: And we get our news from different people, and you might want to mention who from Tommy.
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, well, that particular item came from Mr.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_03: Richard Crow, and he got it from Mr.
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_03: Evan Bossey, Dan Bossey's son.
• 14:09
  SPEAKER_03: And we got to give folks credit, you know, who help us with the show because in the trading community, it helps to you may not like everyone, you may not agree with everyone, but it it does good to network with people.
• 14:23
  SPEAKER_03: Now, one of the best ways we we have two sponsors of the show, as you all know.
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_03: If you don't, I'm gonna plug them real quick.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_03: But trade the news was talking about it also.
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_03: I also took that tidbit and I have the ability to message the desk and I said, Hey, trade the news, do you see this?
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_03: And they said, Yes, it's starting to come across wires.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_03: And so Trade the News is an audio squawk service, they are a sponsor of all the Ag Bull programs, including Weissmeyer Perspective.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_03: And Jim and I and the whole staff have trade the news.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_03: And how do we tie that in the markets?
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_03: Well, we use, I personally use T4 software, and a lot of the people here at Nesvik use T4, and that is from Plus500.
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_03: Plus 500 is a FCM futures clearing merchant in Chicago.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_03: Now, some people, Jim, like yourselves, you know, you don't trade, and full disclosure, I do trade, but you do always love knowing where the markets are.
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_03: You like looking at the crude oil, the Brent crude, this Matif.
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_03: You know, you could see all these things.
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_03: You know what I like watching that's so important that a lot of people don't have access to one spring wheat.
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_03: A lot of people, as that contracts switch exchanges, they don't have spring wheat quotes.
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_03: Folks, we can get you those.
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_03: I love watching canola trade because as the soybean oil market heats up, canola's traded on the ice exchange and it's traded in Canadian dollars.
• 15:41
  SPEAKER_03: And I know it's a small contract and a small tick, but if you're trading soybean oil or anyway involved in veg oils, you've got to keep an eye on canola.
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_03: And to make us sound smart, the state of North Dakota and the country of Canada planted a ton of canola, so they're getting a bump in price with what is close to record acres.
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_03: Is that true, Jim?
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it it is.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_00: And also, the the reason some of the traders and analysts were surprised when they saw some of the import-export numbers, especially the imports of used cooking oil and other oils, but that shouldn't have been a surprise.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_00: If you recall more than a few months ago, we we said that we're going to see a big pickup in imported uh biofuels because the RFS beginning in 2028, the 50% rin value.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_00: In other words, they're gonna cut it for imported biofuel or biofuel made from imported feedstocks.
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_00: So they're starting to accumulate the imported biofuels, Tommy.
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_00: So that's why you're gonna see those numbers because we're we're exporting less soybean oil because we're utilizing it domestically for our rather bullish RFS program, and maybe they're positioning for the Farty 5Z program.
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_03: And remember a few weeks ago I asked that question.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_03: I said, I think this is a silly question, but behind my parents' restaurant and all restaurants, you'll see an ugly, ugly black container, and it usually has several barrels in it.
• 17:14
  SPEAKER_03: That's where we put our used fryer shortening.
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I said, Jim, is that a big deal?
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_03: You said that's a very big deal.
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_03: That stuff is not, that's worth something.
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_00: That's that's worth some money now.
• 17:24
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and it's gonna grow in money.
• 17:26
  SPEAKER_00: But let's also get to the weather now.
• 17:28
  SPEAKER_00: I think we have do we have the two uh this weekend it started to really percolate on the nighttime temps.
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_00: I learned years ago from Merrill Oscar, the beginning days of ProFarmer, he always taught us to watch the overnight temperatures in corn at the critical growing weather season, and we're there now, okay?
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I have a charge of that.
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_03: You want that one up?
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_03: The overnight temps?
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, the overnight temps.
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_03: I've heard our mutual friend Chip Flory talk about this a lot.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_03: Go ahead.
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_00: Because he came up through the pro farmer psyche, but the corn belt nights temps have turned sharply warmer from Tuesday onward.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_00: That's the forecast, okay?
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_00: This these orange ones here.
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_00: The lows are gonna be near or above 70 degrees.
• 18:13
  SPEAKER_00: Now, these are overnights, it raises the corn yield risk.
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_00: Nebraska may see overnight lows reach 77 to 79 degrees Fahrenheit.
• 18:23
  SPEAKER_00: That's the lows, Tommy.
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_00: The daytime highs are going to approach 100 degrees Fahrenheit in the western belt.
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_00: The warm nights limit the recovery and may reduce the kernel set and the weight of that corn crop.
• 18:39
  SPEAKER_00: The western and northern areas are facing the greatest stress.
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_00: That's what's going to be in the market tonight and Monday, in my judgment, based on what I heard from traders.
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_03: Well, we got a couple of things coming in the markets tonight.
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_03: Now, the markets aren't open yet, and I don't want to predict, you know, and and we know the regulatories watch our the regulatory agencies watch our videos, and we we're glad they're watching our videos.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_03: I hope they're watching everyone's videos.
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_03: But just common sense.
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_03: If you go home over the weekend and oil had sold off hard, and then they're bombing the heck out of each other.
• 19:13
  SPEAKER_03: You got Russia being aggressive again with bombings in Kiev.
• 19:17
  SPEAKER_03: So that means Ukraine's gonna go back and bomb Russia, right?
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_03: We have this weather mix now.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_03: You're starting to get to a fragile environment, and this is why it's so important to manage the risk.
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_03: Everyone's assuming still we have 183 bushel yield.
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_03: Knock that yield down to just 180, no big deal, but it is a big deal.
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_03: That would put us in a, we'd say, as Dennis Gartman used to say, the charts would go from the bottom left to the top right because we are using an incredible amount of corn domestically.
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_03: You talk about that, Jim.
• 19:53
  SPEAKER_03: We are gobbling up corn, we're selling corn, we're not selling a lot of wheat, we're starting to sell soybeans, but corn is a popular item.
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_00: I will talk a little bit more as we're putting uh more weight on those cattle for whatever reasons, and uh and uh and also on the export, we have record uh corn exports, but now also on the weather, over the past 30 days, Tommy, our midsection of the country has been hammered by repeated deluges of rain.
• 20:21
  SPEAKER_03: That's me, my area.
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_00: That yeah, yeah, that was capped by a one in one thousand-year flood in Missouri.
• 20:29
  SPEAKER_00: Wow, okay, while the West withered on a fraction of its normal rainfall, and dryness is creeping back into the Carolinas.
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_00: So there has no been no such thing as an average rainfall in our great country lately over the past 30 days, ending July 11th.
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_00: I'll have a report on this on Ag Bull Media tomorrow.
• 20:50
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 20:50
  SPEAKER_00: One in six U.S.
• 20:52
  SPEAKER_00: counties, 555 of roughly 3,100 in the lower 48 received more than one and a half times its normal rainfall.
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_00: And 151 counties took in better than double.
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_00: At the same time, 246 counties got less than half of what they normally count on, and 87 received under a quarter.
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_00: So the middle of the distribution, the place where rainfall is simply ordinary, that's been squeezed nearly out of existence.
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_03: Okay.
• 21:25
  SPEAKER_00: And so we'll have some maps on our story tomorrow.
• 21:28
  SPEAKER_00: But so what what you're hearing from us is we're getting into a weather market.
• 21:33
  SPEAKER_00: Now we all know weather markets are fickle.
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_00: They can they can weather forecasts can change and things like that, but we have to present the news as we know it at the time that we're you know commenting on it.
• 21:46
  SPEAKER_03: And one more little nugget, Jim.
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_03: The world stocks in corn went down.
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_03: When you look at the world balance sheet of all the numbers that came out Friday, there was only one that stuck out to me.
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_03: World ending corn stocks went down.
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_03: And if yields go down and world ending corn stocks go down and demand stays just to where it is now or increases, because you know when there's plenty of it, you just become I'll buy it as I need it.
• 22:10
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
• 22:10
  SPEAKER_03: And then when you start to realize, uh oh, there's a little problem, you go out and get it.
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_03: Now we're forgetting to tell them about something.
• 22:18
  SPEAKER_03: What did the funds do?
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_03: The funds went from a record long to short.
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_03: They're now covering those shorts in their neutral.
• 22:25
  SPEAKER_03: The funds have a huge ability to pile back in the longs, Jim.
• 22:29
  SPEAKER_03: They do, they do.
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_00: And we're we're we're we're beginning in the fledgling days of a potential weather market, potential, and uh we've had a demand pull market.
• 22:40
  SPEAKER_00: Uh the market just hasn't really focused on that.
• 22:42
  SPEAKER_00: But we've mentioned for corn and look at the utilization domestically in the soybeans.
• 22:48
  SPEAKER_00: Wheat is just a function of a low crop and some problems around the world.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_00: But that brings us to the China one.
• 22:54
  SPEAKER_00: I think you'll have that next, right?
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_03: I do, sir.
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_03: I do.
• 22:57
  SPEAKER_03: Okay, sure.
• 22:57
  SPEAKER_00: Remembered all the chatter that the trade had on where they're going to be July talks and they they the between U.S.
• 23:04
  SPEAKER_00: and China trade officials, our Treasury Department officials.
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_00: The rumor talks remain unconfirmed, but neither government has issued any schedule or delegation list or readout.
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_00: The potential deal, whenever it is, and it's coming, I've been told, would remove China's 10% tariff on U.S.
• 23:23
  SPEAKER_00: farm goods, and the U.S.
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_00: in return synchronized would drop its 10% fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese imports.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_00: Now, I now I've been getting to hear the effective date for that could be, again, could be October 1.
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_00: That's been discussed, but it's not yet confirmed.
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_00: Now, what about these talks?
• 23:44
  SPEAKER_00: The July 27th is the next key date in the U.S.
• 23:50
  SPEAKER_00: trade reps tariff review process.
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_00: And we mentioned that weeks ago that we're saying, hey, we don't know whether or not this July 10th is going to be actualized for the talks, but it could come on the 27th or shortly thereafter, because that's the end of the comment period and the rebuttal period for the U.S.
• 24:09
  SPEAKER_00: trade reps tariff review process, also relative to the Board of Trade concepts relative to the US-China agreement.
• 24:17
  SPEAKER_00: Remember, in May between President Trump and Xi Jinping's China leader.
• 24:22
  SPEAKER_00: So we've got China, I think, is going to build as a market factor.
• 24:27
  SPEAKER_00: We saw it in soybeans last week that we had confirmation of soybean purchases, and we're going to see if it spreads for additional purchases and also maybe going into more sorghum.
• 24:40
  SPEAKER_00: They've been buying sorghum, some cotton they've bought and and and other commodities.
• 24:45
  SPEAKER_00: So China's going to remain in the news for more than a few months, Tommy.
• 24:49
  SPEAKER_03: Let me ask you, this guy's super important to it, Mr.
• 24:51
  SPEAKER_03: Jameson Greer.
• 24:52
  SPEAKER_00: Jamison Greer is the U.S.
• 24:54
  SPEAKER_00: trade rep.
• 24:55
  SPEAKER_00: And and we've got an item coming on him later on that we'll get into why he's so important, Tommy.
• 25:01
  SPEAKER_03: Okay.
• 25:01
  SPEAKER_03: Well, let's move along.
• 25:02
  SPEAKER_03: We got an action pack show.
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_03: Number five, U.S.
• 25:05
  SPEAKER_03: Iran.
• 25:06
  SPEAKER_00: You saw uh last week where Trump got upset, and he should have been, of saying the ceasefire is over, but yet technical talks uh will continue.
• 25:15
  SPEAKER_00: Well, who are they talking to, Tommy?
• 25:18
  SPEAKER_00: This is what everybody asked.
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_00: Are that there's a there's the the military people in Iran or the aggressive ones, and those are the ones who fired on the Strait of Harmuz vessels, and that's what got the U.S.
• 25:33
  SPEAKER_00: to really retaliate this weekend.
• 25:35
  SPEAKER_00: We had more than a few missiles in that you know, Strait of Harmuz area, and Iran came right back and and and got some of our other Mideast areas around the Mideast, but I think this is accelerating, it's not going the other way, regretfully.
• 25:53
  SPEAKER_00: But it it just shouldn't surprise people.
• 25:55
  SPEAKER_00: You just cannot trust, you just cannot trust Iran.
• 25:59
  SPEAKER_00: So I know this is gonna impact fertilizer prices, they're not gonna go down, is what we were hoping for, urea prices, uh uh, etc.
• 26:08
  SPEAKER_00: So the the Iran you know situation you know situation is gonna remain a market factor.
• 26:16
  SPEAKER_00: We're we're pressing Iran for unrestricted Harmuz shipping, even if they say it, the military people are not going to follow through on that.
• 26:25
  SPEAKER_00: And Iran is challenging Trump on the Harmoose.
• 26:28
  SPEAKER_00: They want a role in the future to control those vessels going through the strait.
• 26:34
  SPEAKER_00: We want no part of it.
• 26:35
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we want no part of it.
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_00: What we're saying is here is this is not going away.
• 26:40
  SPEAKER_00: It'll continue to be a market factor, affecting energy prices.
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_00: We've seen a pretty good run-up in energy in both WTI, what's the U.S.
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_00: oil price, crude oil, and the uh Brent, uh, that's the international crude oil prices.
• 26:54
  SPEAKER_00: They they had a positive week last week on the upside for crude.
• 26:58
  SPEAKER_00: So we've got more volatility in U.S.
• 27:01
  SPEAKER_00: Iran geopolitics.
• 27:02
  SPEAKER_03: Well, let's go to happier, and this is where you said we'd talk about the trade rep.
• 27:06
  SPEAKER_03: Number six, trade policy, USTR.
• 27:09
  SPEAKER_00: That's Jamison Greer as our trade rep.
• 27:12
  SPEAKER_00: Good guy.
• 27:12
  SPEAKER_00: He's the nerd of of uh Trump's cabinet, I always say, but you got to listen because he follows through on what he says.
• 27:20
  SPEAKER_00: Now, uh Larry Cudlow on Fox Business had an interview with Greer that I thought that was perfect.
• 27:26
  SPEAKER_00: We had it on Agbol Media.
• 27:29
  SPEAKER_00: Basically, he was saying, look, relative to the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, he said Trump has already modified it with the aluminum and steel tariffs.
• 27:40
  SPEAKER_00: And and and we're gonna, yes, we're gonna use the negotiations for leverage.
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_00: And we want to make sure we didn't think that the original US Mexico-Canada trade agreement, USMCA, with Trump actually started it, okay, it didn't work out the way they thought.
• 27:59
  SPEAKER_00: So it could be improved.
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_00: And he said the primary primary proof of change is they want rules of origin in Mexico for countries like uh China and Vietnam doing an end around to put some of their products through Mexico into the market that they want to get into the most, the U.S.
• 28:20
  SPEAKER_00: market.
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_00: And they're and the Greer and Trump wants to stop that.
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_00: And that's that's why they're gonna really negotiate hard on the renegotiation of the USMCA.
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_00: Then he said something else relative to arbitration as far as disputes.
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_00: He said, you know, on non-sensitive issues, yes, we have the dispute resolution embodied in the original US-Mexico-Canada agreement, but on the sensitive ones, we have the U.S.
• 28:50
  SPEAKER_00: trade tools that we'll use and we have used.
• 28:53
  SPEAKER_00: So I've never heard him say it like that before, but that's what he did.
• 28:58
  SPEAKER_03: That's interesting.
• 28:59
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's there's another element of trade that we had a uh recent trade clash with Spain.
• 29:06
  SPEAKER_00: If you'll recall President Trump, when he went over to NATO, threatened to cut off all U.S.
• 29:13
  SPEAKER_00: trade with Spain, and that got the market in a downturn that day for a few hours.
• 29:18
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, but then Wednesday evening, news broke that uh Trump had talked to the leader of Spain, and they worked thing, they apparently worked things out.
• 29:30
  SPEAKER_00: There was never an official announcement of this, but there were some misreporting on this.
• 29:36
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, some news services who don't check their facts said that we had uh implemented no trade with Spain.
• 29:44
  SPEAKER_00: That's not the case.
• 29:45
  SPEAKER_00: In fact, Trump several months ago threatened the same thing.
• 29:49
  SPEAKER_00: It's not as easy to cut off trade U.S.
• 29:52
  SPEAKER_00: trade with Spain because they're part of the EU.
• 29:55
  SPEAKER_00: So we would have to jump through so many hoops to do this, Tommy.
• 29:59
  SPEAKER_00: Bottom line, uh trade continues with Spain.
• 30:03
  SPEAKER_00: So this, if you hear it from somebody that we've cut off uh all ag trade with Spain, it's not accurate.
• 30:11
  SPEAKER_00: I just wanted to put that out.
• 30:12
  SPEAKER_03: A little bit of fake news, as we call it.
• 30:14
  SPEAKER_00: It it well, our news that they don't follow up on.
• 30:17
  SPEAKER_00: I just some reporters or analysts or uh uh radio people are lazy as far as I'm concerned.
• 30:24
  SPEAKER_00: They just should check their facts, okay?
• 30:26
  SPEAKER_03: Not us, not us.
• 30:27
  SPEAKER_03: Well, we're working on Sunday, baby.
• 30:29
  SPEAKER_03: Number seven, Congress returns, and we do have some breaking news, some sad news.
• 30:34
  SPEAKER_03: Someone who you know passed away.
• 30:37
  SPEAKER_03: So breaking news on this, we won't even do the beep beep beep beep be beep because uh I talked to my dad and others.
• 30:43
  SPEAKER_03: They they really Mr.
• 30:45
  SPEAKER_03: Lindsey Graham passed away, and he was just in Ukraine in President Trump's day.
• 30:51
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, President Trump said he spoke to him a few hours before he passed.
• 30:57
  SPEAKER_00: And he was said he's Republican from South Carolina, he just turned 71 this past the last few days.
• 31:05
  SPEAKER_00: He it was a sudden illness, look appears to be a heart attack.
• 31:08
  SPEAKER_00: His death came two days after a final diplomatic visit to Kiev, uh, Ukraine.
• 31:15
  SPEAKER_00: The governor of uh South Carolina, McMaster, he's got an appointment interim senator through January 3rd, 2027.
• 31:24
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll have to listen to see who he appoints.
• 31:28
  SPEAKER_00: South Carolina Republicans must replace Graham on the November ballot.
• 31:32
  SPEAKER_00: So now they have some time for that.
• 31:34
  SPEAKER_00: Who are they gonna pick?
• 31:35
  SPEAKER_00: The appointee could gain, the appointee from the governor could gain a major advantage in securing that Republican uh nomination.
• 31:44
  SPEAKER_00: So, as far as uh Graham, I knew him, I knew Lindsay.
• 31:47
  SPEAKER_00: He was a funny guy at many times, but he could work with the Democrats, he could argue with them in a very intellectual way, and and he proved himself many times.
• 31:59
  SPEAKER_00: He was the budget committee chairman, that's an important committee.
• 32:02
  SPEAKER_00: Think of budget reconciliation, things like that.
• 32:05
  SPEAKER_00: So they're gonna have to uh choose a new budget committee chairman.
• 32:09
  SPEAKER_00: He helped advance for the ag angle, he helped advance those farmer safety net provisions, those much higher reference prices and other good features that we saw in Farm Bill Title I in the budget reconciliation.
• 32:24
  SPEAKER_00: That's that one big, beautiful bill that he helped get through the Senate.
• 32:29
  SPEAKER_00: He was a clear leading voice on Ukraine, pro-Ukraine, anti-Russia.
• 32:35
  SPEAKER_00: Israel, he didn't back off like too many in both parties are doing right now in Israel.
• 32:40
  SPEAKER_00: Iran, he he he implored President Trump to get more aggressive on Iran and keep following through.
• 32:48
  SPEAKER_00: And he has a bill that's in the hopper on further sanctions on Russia that I think will get added life now because of his death.
• 32:57
  SPEAKER_00: So what we watch out for, McMaster's appointment.
• 33:01
  SPEAKER_00: Who is he going to appoint?
• 33:02
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna have to look for the Republican nominee, and we're gonna have to look for the odds of Graham's sanctions bill as a uh testimonial to him from both sides of the political aisle, Tommy.
• 33:15
  SPEAKER_00: That's about what I would say on Lindsay Graham.
• 33:18
  SPEAKER_03: Good guy, good guy.
• 33:19
  SPEAKER_03: Polly Market's already starting to make bets, and uh, they said uh they threw back up the name Nancy Mace, and she was she loved the press.
• 33:27
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, well, she was fifth or something in the governor's race.
• 33:30
  SPEAKER_00: And let me just put a prediction very low odds.
• 33:33
  SPEAKER_00: The White House is going to argue against that, and I cannot see it.
• 33:37
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll see if she even runs far.
• 33:39
  SPEAKER_00: Does she want to be embarrassed again?
• 33:41
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 33:42
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not a Nancy person, if you can see.
• 33:46
  SPEAKER_03: Is this what got just a little tidbit?
• 33:48
  SPEAKER_03: Isn't a situation like this what got Rod Blagoevich in trouble when he had the power to appoint someone to the Senate?
• 33:56
  SPEAKER_00: It could have been.
• 33:57
  SPEAKER_00: I'd have to refresh myself on him.
• 34:00
  SPEAKER_00: He's good.
• 34:01
  SPEAKER_03: I don't know if you ever Obama days on the podcast.
• 34:03
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, yeah.
• 34:03
  SPEAKER_03: Well, yeah, he wasn't happy that he went away to jail.
• 34:06
  SPEAKER_03: He's one of the few politicians that he's come back.
• 34:09
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, yeah, but you spend a day in jail, that's a day too much.
• 34:12
  SPEAKER_03: I think you spent seven, eight years in jail.
• 34:14
  SPEAKER_00: But let's go, Congress returns tomorrow.
• 34:16
  SPEAKER_00: The House for eight days before their next time off, and the Senate for 20.
• 34:21
  SPEAKER_00: And they have a busy agenda for ag.
• 34:23
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, go through some of the agendas.
• 34:25
  SPEAKER_00: We'll go through bottom line stuff: the additional farmer aid.
• 34:28
  SPEAKER_00: Trump wants in his supplemental spending bill for Iran$11 billion,$11.1 billion for additional aid,$10 billion for row crops, and$1.1 billion for Florida ag disaster.
• 34:41
  SPEAKER_00: And you've got GT Thompson, House Ag Committee Chairman, Republican from Pennsylvania, Bozeman, Senate Ag uh Committee Chairman from Arkansas.
• 34:50
  SPEAKER_00: They want$15 to$17 billion.
• 34:53
  SPEAKER_00: So but now with this attached to the additional funding for Iran, that's going to get into uh you won't get many Democrats to vote for this.
• 35:04
  SPEAKER_00: So there's a little concern in farm country that this is attached to a must-pass bill, but it it's it's not going to be easier.
• 35:13
  SPEAKER_00: I think most of these issues, the farmer aid, the Iran funding, the fiscal year 2027 appropriations bill that the Senate hasn't passed one yet, Tommy.
• 35:24
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's going to be kicked until after November 3rd elections into a lame duck session of Congress.
• 35:31
  SPEAKER_00: So we're going to be on this issue for a while, and that's probably going to include the White House push for year-round E15 for corn ethanol.
• 35:39
  SPEAKER_00: I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am.
• 35:41
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
• 35:42
  SPEAKER_03: Well, oftentimes you're right.
• 35:45
  SPEAKER_03: And you have that comes with experience, Jim.
• 35:47
  SPEAKER_03: That's a compliment or a polite way of saying you're older.
• 35:51
  SPEAKER_03: I don't know either way.
• 35:52
  SPEAKER_03: Congress returns.
• 35:53
  SPEAKER_03: Did we cover all this?
• 35:54
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 35:54
  SPEAKER_00: RFS next, set three.
• 35:57
  SPEAKER_00: We had some interesting stuff this past week on Agbomedia.com.
• 36:01
  SPEAKER_00: Sometimes when you write a story, and there was one line in my initial report on set three is the 2028 mandate, RVOs, we call them mandates for corn and bio biofuels, bio-based biodiesel, etc.
• 36:15
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we had one line in a report I wrote that and a proposed rule, not the final, could come out within weeks.
• 36:23
  SPEAKER_00: Well, after that, well, after that hit, I got more than a few calls from stakeholders in the industry.
• 36:31
  SPEAKER_00: Several who have who had met with EPA the week before Tommy, and they said, you might want to update the story.
• 36:41
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 36:42
  SPEAKER_00: And the story was, of course, we updated it.
• 36:45
  SPEAKER_00: EPA told the stakeholders they're likely to miss the October 31 statutory deadline for the final.
• 36:52
  SPEAKER_00: Now remember, not the proposed for the final 2028 RFS volumes.
• 36:57
  SPEAKER_00: That's the mandated amounts.
• 36:59
  SPEAKER_00: The reason they they they want to see how the set two, that's the 26 and 27 RFS mandates, are going to work out into the marketplace.
• 37:10
  SPEAKER_00: My ear heard that EPA may be getting a little nervous that they got too aggressive on that bio-based biodiesel mandate.
• 37:20
  SPEAKER_00: They didn't say that, but that's what my ear is hearing.
• 37:23
  SPEAKER_00: They're worried that the U.S.
• 37:25
  SPEAKER_00: soybean processing industry is not geared up fast enough to actually execute the mandated levels that they put out for 26 and 27.
• 37:36
  SPEAKER_00: So, where does this leave us?
• 37:38
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, my contacts expect the proposed rule uh for 2028, RFS volumes, late this year, and a final rule could be kicked to early to mid 2027.
• 37:52
  SPEAKER_00: Here's the way we test this.
• 37:54
  SPEAKER_00: The Environmental Protection Agency, which issues this, has not yet sent their proposed rule to the Office of Management and Budget.
• 38:04
  SPEAKER_00: Now, one of the reasons could be that the uh EPA air chief, that now the air chief is the one who really helps determine the proposed levels.
• 38:15
  SPEAKER_00: He's over the RFS.
• 38:17
  SPEAKER_00: His name is Aaron Zabel.
• 38:20
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 38:21
  SPEAKER_00: He announced that he's leaving EPA.
• 38:24
  SPEAKER_00: So, with no successor yet named, that may be one of the reasons why this these decisions, because that's the political appointee who has to make some hard political choices on these uh mandated levels and the RINs and the SREs and the reallocations, all that embodied in the RFS.
• 38:43
  SPEAKER_00: If you know the RFS, you know what I'm talking about.
• 38:46
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 38:47
  SPEAKER_00: So that's why this may come later rather than sooner as EPA assesses the set two's impact, 26 and 26 and 27 mandated on soybean crush and biofuel markets.
• 39:01
  SPEAKER_00: That's the update that I can uh tell you.
• 39:04
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't think that's going to change for a while.
• 39:07
  SPEAKER_00: But we're going to monitor when EPA actually officially sends their proposed rule to OMB because that'll tell us a lot there.
• 39:14
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 39:15
  SPEAKER_03: Very good.
• 39:16
  SPEAKER_03: Number nine, screw worm.
• 39:17
  SPEAKER_03: Almost every week, Jim, we talk about screwworm.
• 39:20
  SPEAKER_03: I don't think the story's going away.
• 39:22
  SPEAKER_03: It's been heavily speculated on border opening, closing.
• 39:25
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, now Mexico has it, we have it.
• 39:27
  SPEAKER_03: So what happens next?
• 39:28
  SPEAKER_00: Well, Brewster County case that they announced raised the U.S.
• 39:32
  SPEAKER_00: total to 34.
• 39:34
  SPEAKER_00: Detections now have been found in 14 counties.
• 39:38
  SPEAKER_00: But here's the the news, Tommy.
• 39:40
  SPEAKER_00: The case extended the outbreak deeper into what we call the Big Bend area in Texas.
• 39:46
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the concentrated spread favors a very targeted eradication effort.
• 39:51
  SPEAKER_00: So that means what USDA is doing so far is the right approach.
• 39:55
  SPEAKER_00: There's been no wildlife infections or positive fly traps reported.
• 39:59
  SPEAKER_00: And boy, that's a good thing.
• 40:01
  SPEAKER_00: Expect heavier trapping and sterile fly releases in West Texas.
• 40:07
  SPEAKER_00: That's what I was told.
• 40:08
  SPEAKER_00: So, bottom line, you're exactly right.
• 40:11
  SPEAKER_00: Your bug on this one, this is not going to go away.
• 40:13
  SPEAKER_00: We'll probably be reporting on it uh several days each week for the next few months.
• 40:18
  SPEAKER_00: Let's let's again hope we're wrong, but I don't think we are.
• 40:21
  SPEAKER_03: But it doesn't jerk the market around as much anymore.
• 40:24
  SPEAKER_03: Not as much.
• 40:24
  SPEAKER_03: No, because we have it.
• 40:25
  SPEAKER_00: So like they think it's controlled right now.
• 40:28
  SPEAKER_03: And Mr.
• 40:29
  SPEAKER_03: Mike Sands, folks, if you're part of the subscription package, you you know Mr.
• 40:33
  SPEAKER_03: Mike Sands.
• 40:34
  SPEAKER_03: Every morning he does a before the bell.
• 40:36
  SPEAKER_03: Mike Sands is uh with us here at uh MBS Research and he's part of Nesvik, also a good friend of Mr.
• 40:42
  SPEAKER_03: Weesmeyer.
• 40:43
  SPEAKER_03: But yes, every morning at about 8 15, we have his conference call.
• 40:47
  SPEAKER_03: He does a conference call just about cattle, cattle cash and everything else.
• 40:51
  SPEAKER_03: But he what he's brought up in the conference call was how the heck is it showing up and not one animal has it, not one trap has it?
• 41:00
  SPEAKER_03: Like, how can the traps not be getting it?
• 41:03
  SPEAKER_03: And then my question would be but it sounds kind of smart ass, you know, ish is who's who's like, hey, Mr.
• 41:08
  SPEAKER_03: Raccoon, can I look at your back?
• 41:10
  SPEAKER_03: Hey, Mr.
• 41:11
  SPEAKER_03: Deer, how's your ear feeling?
• 41:12
  SPEAKER_00: Or you know, like how could you even check on these animals unless it's hard to track unless you have those drones or stuff checked?
• 41:20
  SPEAKER_00: But I'll tell you, if it gets into the wildlife area, then it becomes a market factor.
• 41:24
  SPEAKER_00: Then it becomes a market factor for sure.
• 41:26
  unknown: Okay.
• 41:27
  SPEAKER_03: Did we cover everything you want to on this?
• 41:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, I do.
• 41:30
  SPEAKER_03: We're at towards the end of the show.
• 41:32
  SPEAKER_03: Uh, number 10.
• 41:33
  SPEAKER_03: But boy, did you go heavy on the bullet points like putting too much hot sauce and some chili here full screen on this?
• 41:40
  SPEAKER_00: I spoke earlier this past week, Wednesday, I think it was, to the National Farm Bureau, American Farm Bureau Federation.
• 41:49
  SPEAKER_00: They had all the presidents from each state.
• 41:51
  SPEAKER_00: So they had 50 other presidents there.
• 41:53
  SPEAKER_00: And I love that because those presidents know farm policy already.
• 41:57
  SPEAKER_00: So I don't have to go into the minutiae to help explain things to them.
• 42:02
  SPEAKER_00: So in the questions they ask, etc.
• 42:04
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that morning, the National Corn Growers Association issued their report on the cost differences, some pretty big ones, between growing corn in U.S.
• 42:15
  SPEAKER_00: versus growing corn in Brazil.
• 42:17
  SPEAKER_00: And it showed that farmers pay substantially more than Brazilian growers for seed and crop protection products.
• 42:23
  SPEAKER_00: Corn scene prices average 68% higher.
• 42:27
  SPEAKER_00: But in a follow-up story that we put on AgBull Media.com, we said you can explain that because on average, U.S.
• 42:37
  SPEAKER_00: corn yields are about twice higher than Brazil.
• 42:41
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 42:42
  SPEAKER_00: But it's this other inputs, the insecticides, the herbicides, that you cannot explain.
• 42:49
  SPEAKER_00: They the corn insecticides averaged 80% higher during 23 to 25.
• 42:54
  SPEAKER_00: Herbicides cost nearly twice as much.
• 42:57
  SPEAKER_00: Fungicides exceeded Brazilian prices by more than 100%.
• 43:03
  SPEAKER_00: So those other inputs carry no comparable yield stories, like I just said, on the corn.
• 43:09
  SPEAKER_00: You got to look at seed revenue, Tommy.
• 43:12
  SPEAKER_00: When you look at seed revenue, I wouldn't get so mad at the corn at the seed price because we're yielding twice as much as Brazil.
• 43:21
  SPEAKER_00: But the national corn growers want the gaps explained and closed.
• 43:26
  SPEAKER_00: The input prices rose when commodity prices increased, but have not fallen proportionally as crop prices declined.
• 43:34
  SPEAKER_00: So bottom line in this report, the corn growers want greater price transparency, more competition, and a public interest test and trade remedy cases affecting farm inputs.
• 43:46
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that's what uh Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden at USDA told us earlier this year, and he's telling audiences after that.
• 43:54
  SPEAKER_00: So that's that report.
• 43:56
  SPEAKER_00: It was, I think it was a worthwhile report because now we got the debate going full time.
• 44:01
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, and our good friend Tyne Morgan talked about this.
• 44:04
  SPEAKER_03: She put out a tweet about it.
• 44:06
  SPEAKER_03: That tweet was retweeted 221.
• 44:09
  SPEAKER_03: Times it's got 478 hearts.
• 44:11
  SPEAKER_03: Heart doesn't mean you love it or don't love it.
• 44:13
  SPEAKER_03: That's just how X lets you identify.
• 44:15
  SPEAKER_03: It has eight 185,000 impressions.
• 44:19
  SPEAKER_03: Now, when I typically put out an X post, if I have 5,000 impressions, that's a lot.
• 44:24
  SPEAKER_03: When I tell you this caught the eye of folks in agriculture, uh, this is a big deal.
• 44:29
  SPEAKER_03: Now, who's gonna who's gonna go explain this?
• 44:32
  SPEAKER_00: Who's like is someone in trouble, or who's gonna say, oh, yeah, like this is well, they've got the Justice Department looking in on a number of these areas, so we're gonna see they're gonna have to explain it.
• 44:42
  SPEAKER_00: I think again, I say I I'm not a I'm not a defender of the seed companies, but I think you they have a case to be made on there's variance here when you how you price your seeds in the US versus Brazil because of the yield, you know.
• 44:57
  SPEAKER_00: But it's these other areas that they're gonna have to take a look at.
• 45:00
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm not pointing finger, I'm just saying what this report said that corn insecticides and herbicides and fungicides are theirs, and that's why the corn growers want to see, you know, uh, you know, uh uh greater price transparency.
• 45:14
  SPEAKER_00: And so I know Texas AM University may be doing research report on this same topic.
• 45:21
  SPEAKER_00: I hope they do because they usually do very good, very good research.
• 45:25
  SPEAKER_00: But you're gonna see Congress pick up on this report, Tommy.
• 45:28
  SPEAKER_00: That's that's one of the impacts of this.
• 45:30
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 45:31
  SPEAKER_00: That NCGA, I know, is going to get echoed by hearings probably up on the hill, and probably further investigations, not only by Congress, but the administration.
• 45:41
  SPEAKER_00: Again, you haven't heard the last on this topic.
• 45:43
  SPEAKER_03: Okay, before we end, Jim, I'm gonna go full screen on you.
• 45:47
  SPEAKER_03: You are such a uh a value to what we're doing, but I want you to explain from someone it this is interesting because you're you're approaching 80, you're not there yet, but I you know you're close to 78.
• 46:01
  SPEAKER_03: You're closer to 80 than 70.
• 46:03
  SPEAKER_03: I want you to tell one cute story for the end, and then we'll get into a plug.
• 46:07
  SPEAKER_03: I asked you the other day off air, how sharp are you?
• 46:10
  SPEAKER_03: Like one out of a hundred, you think you're 95, and you tell the story of when the nurses do the cognitive test about how you give the answers from the prior.
• 46:19
  unknown: Yeah.
• 46:20
  SPEAKER_00: When when you go when you're older like I am, when you go to the doctor, older, not old, when you they give you a cognitive test where they give you three things that uh words, and then they talk, they try to divert you, and then at the end you have to say, recall those three words.
• 46:39
  SPEAKER_00: Well, what I did this last time, and it was two months apart from my last visit.
• 46:45
  SPEAKER_02: I hope you're shitting down, folks.
• 46:47
  SPEAKER_00: I went into the same nurses and I said the same three words that I had to remember on that last visit, and they just roared.
• 46:56
  SPEAKER_00: They just roared.
• 46:58
  SPEAKER_00: So I said, now if you could do the same thing for my leg and neck, I would feel very good.
• 47:04
  SPEAKER_00: Mine's about 95% there.
• 47:06
  SPEAKER_00: The leg and the neck is called 78 years old.
• 47:10
  SPEAKER_03: Oh, I think we've had presidents who weren't one-third as sharp as you are.
• 47:14
  SPEAKER_03: We may have a co-host who's not one-third as sharp as you.
• 47:17
  SPEAKER_03: Break break people down.
• 47:18
  SPEAKER_03: You've gotten to know what I was super excited about someone like you that you're working with some really incredible young people, some former co-workers.
• 47:26
  SPEAKER_03: We have ag squak AM.
• 47:28
  SPEAKER_03: You've gotten to know Jed better.
• 47:29
  SPEAKER_03: Tell people about Jed and Ag Squawk AM.
• 47:32
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I love, I've often ask who who is coming up in the ag industry because they know I've, you know, I've known a lot of people a long time.
• 47:42
  SPEAKER_00: Are there uh who who do I see coming down the pike?
• 47:46
  SPEAKER_00: And that's why I love uh uh younger people who have the first quality that you gotta have in this industry is passion.
• 47:55
  SPEAKER_00: That's the most important thing to me.
• 47:57
  SPEAKER_00: You have to have intelligence though, too, but you have to know markets.
• 48:00
  SPEAKER_00: And I think one of the secrets that in the early days, again, I'll say a pro farmer, what uh we knew how to write, but you can teach somebody actually you can teach somebody markets, but it's harder to teach somebody how to write.
• 48:17
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 48:17
  SPEAKER_00: So if you can join those two, see if if you're good at the markets, you can be even better at news eventually.
• 48:27
  SPEAKER_00: Why do I say that?
• 48:28
  SPEAKER_00: You can cite a particular news and where you're at on the market, like are you at the bottom of a corn chart uh or at the top of a corn chart?
• 48:37
  SPEAKER_00: So that's why when you have and Conrad Leslie, an old uh trader and crop uh survey person years ago taught me this.
• 48:46
  SPEAKER_00: He said, if you have bullish news at the bottom of a corn market, traders put more weight on that because your markets are already low.
• 48:56
  SPEAKER_00: So they're afraid that they either get out of their sharition or they'll turn around and go the opposite direction, go long.
• 49:05
  SPEAKER_00: And the same thing happens at the top end when you're you're in your trading range at the top of the marketplace.
• 49:11
  SPEAKER_00: That's where a bearish story has more significance.
• 49:14
  SPEAKER_00: Those are just some of the tools that you learn over the years of how markets can mesh with a news person if you know both.
• 49:22
  SPEAKER_03: Right.
• 49:23
  SPEAKER_03: We have a phenomenal team.
• 49:24
  SPEAKER_03: Jed and I are doing a squawk AM.
• 49:26
  SPEAKER_03: I will be on Ag Squawk AM.
• 49:28
  SPEAKER_03: Mr.
• 49:28
  SPEAKER_03: Jed's uh attending a concert tonight, and I said take it off.
• 49:31
  SPEAKER_03: Now then we end up in the afternoon, and these two shows, AgSquawk AM and Ag Squawk PM, are free, and you can find them on Apple, Spotify, YouTube.
• 49:40
  SPEAKER_03: You can find them uh vocally, you can listen, or you can now watch.
• 49:44
  SPEAKER_03: We have video on Spotify, Apple, and YouTube.
• 49:47
  SPEAKER_03: Those come out around 7 and 3.
• 49:50
  SPEAKER_03: We may adjust those times a little bit.
• 49:51
  SPEAKER_03: It's been ending up a little bit more towards 7:30 or 3 o'clock.
• 49:54
  SPEAKER_03: If you're a client, we email them, text them to you, and stuff, but they're free.
• 49:57
  SPEAKER_03: You can go get them.
• 49:58
  SPEAKER_03: Then we bring it home with the one and only Davis Michelson behind the bodacious blue microphone.
• 50:06
  SPEAKER_03: What can you say about this young man?
• 50:07
  SPEAKER_03: That's Davis, but his father, you know.
• 50:10
  SPEAKER_00: I started with his father for many years, Ron Michelson.
• 50:13
  SPEAKER_00: In fact, they look very similar.
• 50:16
  SPEAKER_00: They sound if you heard both of them together, you couldn't tell the difference.
• 50:20
  SPEAKER_00: There sound like that.
• 50:21
  SPEAKER_00: And Ron was really came up through the broadcasting end, his father did.
• 50:25
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, Davis has the ability that he learned to ask good questions.
• 50:31
  SPEAKER_00: But here's the secret of a good news person and a broadcaster.
• 50:34
  SPEAKER_00: It's your follow-up question, Tommy.
• 50:37
  SPEAKER_00: You can have very good questions, but you have to listen to who you're interviewing.
• 50:42
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of broadcasters don't.
• 50:43
  SPEAKER_00: They like to hear themselves speak.
• 50:45
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, I'll just leave it there.
• 50:47
  SPEAKER_00: That's not you.
• 50:48
  SPEAKER_00: If you listen to who you're interviewing, they might say a really interesting thing.
• 50:53
  SPEAKER_00: If you follow up with that, that's where you get some of your best insights, whether it's a government official, trader, T-R-A-D-E-R, or an analyst.
• 51:03
  SPEAKER_00: It's the follow-up questions, but you have to listen.
• 51:06
  SPEAKER_00: So you have to have dumbo ears when you're interviewing to know when to follow up and how to follow up on the question.
• 51:13
  SPEAKER_00: It's just like what we said earlier in the weather markets.
• 51:17
  SPEAKER_00: We learned a long time ago, nighttime temperatures for corn is important because if the corn doesn't breathe, you're going to have a yield degradation.
• 51:25
  SPEAKER_00: The the rain, where was the rainfall distribution for the uh last month?
• 51:30
  SPEAKER_00: And we're seeing we're saying there was no average, you either got way too much or way too little.
• 51:35
  SPEAKER_00: So it's starting to add up.
• 51:36
  SPEAKER_00: These are the things that, but to to go back to your original story, what I'm seeing with your fledgling operation there is like the early days, which was the best time in my career at ProFarmer.
• 51:51
  SPEAKER_00: It was entrepreneurship, it was exciting, it was coming out with new products, and it was listening to the audience of what they wanted to give them less of if they didn't want it, more of if they liked it.
• 52:03
  SPEAKER_00: And that's, I think, what we're doing now.
• 52:05
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, absolutely.
• 52:05
  SPEAKER_03: Folks, one more time.
• 52:06
  SPEAKER_03: If you're not paying, that's okay.
• 52:08
  SPEAKER_03: Keep listening to this show.
• 52:09
  SPEAKER_03: Tell a friend about this show.
• 52:11
  SPEAKER_03: This show is free.
• 52:13
  SPEAKER_03: Text it to your friends.
• 52:14
  SPEAKER_03: But if you want to go the other side,$25 a month,$250 annually, you can go to the Ag Bull website, check out what we offer there.
• 52:21
  SPEAKER_03: Tomorrow, paid clients will receive Mr.
• 52:23
  SPEAKER_03: Paul Nefer's video that's exclusive for Ag Bull subscribers.
• 52:27
  SPEAKER_03: All right, a little sad news about Lindsey Graham.
• 52:30
  SPEAKER_03: Of course, we have uh more bad stuff.
• 52:33
  SPEAKER_03: How the how the heck are you gonna put a positive spin?
• 52:36
  SPEAKER_03: I know what you're gonna do.
• 52:37
  SPEAKER_03: I know what you're gonna do, and it's gonna be the big D demand.
• 52:40
  SPEAKER_03: Take it home, brother.
• 52:41
  SPEAKER_00: Big D demand, and we're seeing it uh with the fear of the weather.
• 52:45
  SPEAKER_00: We're in a fledgling weather market, we're not totally in a weather market yet, but boy, that it's kindling fire.
• 52:51
  SPEAKER_00: It's starting to build because of what we said before, those overnight temps, the red too much, too too little in the rainfall area.
• 52:59
  SPEAKER_00: We've got Europe burning up, we've got China coming in for beans, and eventually they'll come up, they'll come in for other products.
• 53:07
  SPEAKER_00: We've got corn record corn exports, we've got the biofuel program kicking in the fourth and fifth gear on utilization, both for corn biofuels.
• 53:16
  SPEAKER_00: We've got uh sorghum getting uh some rally here in the recent weeks as a result of China purchases for their bijou with their liquor uh industry.
• 53:26
  SPEAKER_00: Total cotton is coming back here.
• 53:29
  SPEAKER_00: And if China continues to buy uh U.S.
• 53:32
  SPEAKER_00: cotton, we're gonna see additional price uh appreciation.
• 53:36
  SPEAKER_00: Demand pole markets, Tommy, are the best uh sustainable markets as opposed to just a weather market, that shark crop long tail is the phrase, right?
• 53:46
  SPEAKER_00: Shark crop long tail.
• 53:48
  SPEAKER_00: But when you build in, and I haven't seen this for a while, uh a combination of weather plus demand-fueled market.
• 53:57
  SPEAKER_00: Wow.
• 53:58
  SPEAKER_00: Now I can't 100% guarantee that.
• 54:00
  SPEAKER_00: Like I said, we're we're we can only see today what we feel, but you can feel it in your bones right now that this thing has some legs, and we're gonna see.
• 54:09
  SPEAKER_00: Weather can change very quickly.
• 54:11
  SPEAKER_00: Geopolitics can zap in your best laid plan.
• 54:15
  SPEAKER_00: So you always got to worry about geopolitics following everything up.
• 54:19
  SPEAKER_00: But we have some ingredients here for higher cash and futures prices.
• 54:24
  SPEAKER_00: I think we'll end it there.
• 54:25
  SPEAKER_03: Whew, you've been listening to Wiesmeyer's Perspectives, Mr.
• 54:28
  SPEAKER_03: Jim Wiesmeyer.
• 54:29
  SPEAKER_03: Good looking, smart brain.
• 54:31
  SPEAKER_03: He says 95, 100% legs, closer to that 65% crop rating on those legs.
• 54:37
  SPEAKER_03: Jim, I love you, brother.
• 54:38
  SPEAKER_03: I'll see you soon.
• 54:39
  SPEAKER_00: See you, Dolly.