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The Most Likely Breakout RBs in 2026 · BDGE Fantasy Football

0:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Good morning, friends and enemies.
0:02
[SPEAKER_00]: In today's video, we are going through the most likely breakout running backs in 2026.
0:09
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to score all them on a scale of 1 to 10, who is the most likely breakout candidates.
0:14
[SPEAKER_00]: And the way this is going to work is we're going to look at running backs ranked outside of the top 12 right now per 80 p. So if they're already getting drafted as a top 12 guy, they're already expected to break out.
0:24
[SPEAKER_00]: So we're going to start at running back 13.
0:26
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to double that.
0:27
[SPEAKER_00]: and go through running back 26.
0:29
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm going to talk about each player that has never finished as an RB1 so far in their career.
0:34
[SPEAKER_00]: And what I think the likelihood of them finishing as an RB1 this year will be on a scale of 1 to 10.
0:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Now I also want to caveat the scale of 1 to 10 if I give a player a 9.5 at a 10 does not mean I think they're having 95% chance of finishing as an RB1 this year.
0:48
[SPEAKER_00]: It will be relative to the other players on this list.
0:51
[SPEAKER_00]: So if I think the RB17 has the best chance of every player on this list to finish as an RB1,
0:57
[SPEAKER_00]: 9.5 or a 10, relative to the other players on the list.
1:00
[SPEAKER_00]: So their chances are as strong as any other player to break out this year.
1:04
[SPEAKER_00]: The other important criteria, this will not take injuries into account.
1:09
[SPEAKER_00]: The lens I'm looking at is purely from a going into the season, their current situation, the likelihood of them finishing as an RB1 by the end of the year.
1:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Like if we get to Kalmanunga, I'm not going to sit here and say if DeAndre Swift got hurt,
1:25
[SPEAKER_00]: All right.
1:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's stop talking about the rules.
1:27
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's get into some players here.
1:28
[SPEAKER_00]: The RB13 and ADP right now was the number three overall pick in the NFL draft that is of course Jeremiah love of the Arizona Cardinals.
1:36
[SPEAKER_00]: It's it's pretty messy right there in this backfield, right?
1:39
[SPEAKER_00]: They went out and signed Tyler out of your to some some real money James Connor broke his ankle last year, but it was early and
1:44
[SPEAKER_00]: and they also brought him back in so expected to pull some carries there.
1:48
[SPEAKER_00]: They still have trade bens in.
1:49
[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's a real chance he gets traded or moved out of this backfielder right now.
1:53
[SPEAKER_00]: It was a little bit too much firepower.
1:54
[SPEAKER_00]: So when I look at Jeremiah Love, what I like about his draft position is like you're not paying what those like Ezekiel Elliott say quembarkly prices were, you're able to typically get him around, the end of the second round early third round.
2:07
[SPEAKER_00]: while there's going to be a lot of talk about like, oh, you're getting him at his floor.
2:09
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the conversation to have is, what is the likelihood that he reaches his floor or that he ends up performing at his floor versus the ceiling?
2:17
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's easy to say, oh, you're getting him at his floor, but if you performs at his floor, and that's a 70% chance likelihood of him performing that way, then was it really that good of a pick?
2:27
[SPEAKER_00]: And you can break down whatever the odds are that you want to, but I think looking at the situation right now,
2:31
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it'll lose a bit of a base work.
2:33
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's kind of obvious withels you're there and James Conner there.
2:36
[SPEAKER_00]: But probably not a crazy amount, right?
2:38
[SPEAKER_00]: There are a team that just invested top five capital into this running back.
2:41
[SPEAKER_00]: You're going to assume they're going to use them at a heavy pace.
2:43
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll see what the goal line role ends up boiling down to.
2:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Last year, Arizona as a team scored six rushing touchdowns inside the five yard line.
2:51
[SPEAKER_00]: That is um.
2:52
[SPEAKER_00]: horrendous.
2:53
[SPEAKER_00]: They did, however, have 126 running back targets last year.
2:57
[SPEAKER_00]: It was a team pass attempt total of 649, which is obviously extremely extremely high, but it's still a good target here.
3:03
[SPEAKER_00]: They're laying somewhere, I think, in the 17 to 18% range, in terms of target shared to the running back position.
3:08
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's obviously where I got like Jeremiah Love, who's incredibly explosive, incredibly athletic.
3:12
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll dominate the passing down role, I think, in this offense, on a team that's not expected to win a lot of games.
3:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Right now, if you go to the look ahead lines, Arizona is the underdog in every single game on their schedule this year.
3:22
[SPEAKER_00]: And I don't blame Vegas because their schedule is actually insanely difficult.
3:26
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not that they're just a bad team or expected to be a bad team, but their schedule is one of the hardest schedules in the entire NFL, which is crazy because they were bad team less year and now they get the schedule.
3:34
[SPEAKER_00]: That's kind of part for the course when you play in the NFC West.
3:37
[SPEAKER_00]: And you got the Niners and you got the Rams and you got the C Hawks and that ends up encapsulating 35% of your games.
3:42
[SPEAKER_00]: But I also think that's a case for the upside here where you look back at last year.
3:46
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, through the ball so many times, it was like a statistical outlier that will never happen again.
3:51
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like it can kind of happen again because of the makeup of the schedule because of the makeup of the team.
3:55
[SPEAKER_00]: And they might need to throw the ball a thousand times again this year.
3:57
[SPEAKER_00]: And if they're trailing and we're expecting Jeremiah love to be the passing down back here, which it's definitely not going to be else year, it's definitely not going to be James Connor.
4:04
[SPEAKER_00]: If they keep Tray Benson, maybe he gets sprinkled in a little bit as a breather back in passing down roles, but if Tray Benson's out of that situation, you'd imagine Jeremiah loves going to be a check down king here.
4:14
[SPEAKER_00]: I also think if we look historically at runningbacks drafted early in the NFL draft, it's a little bit more pronounced when you actually break up where they were drafted in the NFL draft.
4:23
[SPEAKER_00]: You have guys that go at pick 32 or guys that go at pick 24 or 26 or whatever, they don't have as much success.
4:28
[SPEAKER_00]: But when you look at guys that were top 10 in the NFL draft, the NFL has actually done a pretty good job of hitting on those guys.
4:34
[SPEAKER_00]: So I looked at the runningbacks drafted inside the top 10 over the last 15 years.
4:39
[SPEAKER_00]: You have Ash and Jenty last year finishes as the RB 11.
4:43
[SPEAKER_00]: and these finishes are overall finish in PPR.
4:46
[SPEAKER_00]: So, Gentie was the RB 11 last year overall in PPR.
4:49
[SPEAKER_00]: B. John Robinson was the RB eight.
4:50
[SPEAKER_00]: His rookie or say quant was the RB one.
4:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Leonard Furnett was the RB nine.
4:54
[SPEAKER_00]: C. Mac was the RB 10.
4:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Z. was the RB two.
4:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Gurly finishes the RB 10 while missing the first four games.
5:00
[SPEAKER_00]: And surprisingly Trent Richardson was actually, obviously a top 10 pick within the last 15 years.
5:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Finished his rookie season as the RB eight in PPR.
5:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Despite what we talk about when we talk about T-Roll.
5:10
[SPEAKER_00]: So you'd actually have to go back 16 years back to 2010 to find CJ Spiller who was the last running back draft in the top 10 of the NFL Draft not to finish as an RB1 and PPR in their rookie season kind of wild.
5:23
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think he's going to kind of have to piece it together like where he's getting his yardage from.
5:27
[SPEAKER_00]: It's going to have to be you know 75 targets his rookie year.
5:30
[SPEAKER_00]: He's probably going to have to score three or four receiving touchdowns, four to six rushing touchdowns.
5:37
[SPEAKER_00]: in the run game because I don't think he's going to end up being a 335 carry type guy out to gate maybe next year or the year following but because of how messy this backfield is right now I think he'll lose a lot of base down where that being said when you're the RB13 you are knocking on the door when you have this type of draft capital and you look at the history of guys drafted this early when you look at kind of the catch-up ball that they're going to have to play and he's the best pass catching back in this backfield I mean I don't think there's going to be a guy that has a situation quite like this with this type of capital behind him
6:05
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm putting Jeremiah in that 9.5 at a 10 score here, and again, that's relative to the other players that we're going to talk about on this list, not necessarily me saying that Jeremiah loves a 95% chance of finishing as in RB1.
6:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, the next five
6:20
[SPEAKER_00]: running backs in ADP have already finished as an RB1, so we're not going to get into them.
6:24
[SPEAKER_00]: That is Bree's Hall, Karen Williams, Travis CTN, Josh Jacobs, and Javante Williams, which lands us at RB19, and that is Mr. Cam Scadabo of the New York Giants, and I've got to say I really, really like Cam Scadabo this year.
6:38
[SPEAKER_00]: really liked him in college was, you know, relatively unsure about how he was going to translate, but he was just so good as a football player that regardless of being a little bit slow, I thought he brought so much athleticism and three down ability to the field that it just like, it took hold of the NFL immediately.
6:56
[SPEAKER_00]: The first thing that needs to be addressed obviously is the injury, and when we look into our draft guide, we have the injury rating and all this kind of stuff for every single player that is dealing with and or coming back from an injury, he suffered an open ankle dislocation with a fractured fibula and ruptured deltoid ligament in late October.
7:13
[SPEAKER_00]: obviously had to have emergency same day surgery because it was an open ankle dislocation got to take care of that immediately.
7:19
[SPEAKER_00]: He was cleared to jog by spring and attended April voluntary workouts and was seen doing backflips at the team softball game giving him a real shot of being 100% by week one.
7:27
[SPEAKER_00]: At this point, you guys have probably seen, you know, the videos of camscadobo just out in public doing things that you probably shouldn't be doing with the type of injury, but it feels pretty obvious to me that he is very ahead of schedule.
7:38
[SPEAKER_00]: that he feels very comfortable with the injury, that he is very close and near to what he used to be.
7:44
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think with Cam, it's like, this isn't a guy who has four, three, two speed.
7:49
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's not necessarily a guy where I'm worried about his long, distant, explosiveness coming off of the injury.
7:55
[SPEAKER_00]: We look at Deepak Shona, he said, Cam's goto, likely no limit by week one.
7:59
[SPEAKER_00]: That's average dip, 12 months October November.
8:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Suspect short yards roll sees less of a hits.
8:08
[SPEAKER_00]: why I really like Scatable going into this year if you can get past the health thing if you're someone who's like listen the history of that type of injury which is a very small sample size that we have for NFL running backs it's not a good one you know we've had the 20 powders we've had other players that have had trouble coming back from this injury so if you can't get over that I've got no problem with that I am personally in on camscatable I think everything I've seen
8:28
[SPEAKER_00]: got me to the point where I'm like, okay, fading the injury risk on this one, which is not how I historically play fantasy football, but Camp Scaddle has such a clear three down skillset.
8:37
[SPEAKER_00]: And as soon as he got onto the field last year, he just ended up taking that job.
8:41
[SPEAKER_00]: He was playing 70 to 75 to 80% of this snaps and played all of the valuable snaps.
8:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, yes, he is a short down grinder, but he got all the go-line carries.
8:50
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a phenomenal pass catching back.
8:51
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's where I think the upside comes into play.
8:53
[SPEAKER_00]: In the five games that he was like the starter and he was really the guy he averaged about five targets per game.
8:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Him and Jackson Dart have this crazy chemistry already.
9:00
[SPEAKER_00]: I think if they look at like the past catchers in this offense as well, like you have Wandell Robinson who has gotten 140 targets in back to back season, he's gone and now he's in Tennessee.
9:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Malik neighbors obviously is dealing with his own injury if he starts on the pup.
9:12
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, who else is Jackson Dart really going to throw the ball to besides the running backs and guys like Isaiah likely and dareyously in.
9:18
[SPEAKER_00]: And we have the sample of last year what we saw with this running back group.
9:22
[SPEAKER_00]: And obviously it's a new set of coaches coming in there.
9:25
[SPEAKER_00]: But when Cam and Tyrone Trace here were both back on the field healthy, it was Cam's backfield indefinitely.
9:29
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think he obviously would have ended up going on to have a massive season how he not gone hurt.
9:34
[SPEAKER_00]: You got Tyrone Tracey behind him who I think is pretty much as good as like any running back two, you're gonna find in the NFL.
9:39
[SPEAKER_00]: But I still think he's a 25 to 30% snap guy.
9:42
[SPEAKER_00]: And if Scott's playing 65 to 70% of the snaps in the NFL next year, like there's just not many running backs
9:48
[SPEAKER_00]: uh... if you look at the numbers you don't have like the clear old school work horse running backs that really exist in the NFL anymore and they drafted an offensive line in top ten in the NFL draft this year so expecting to have a little bit better of an offensive line you have the mobile quarterback which i do think opens up things for the running back and opens up more holes for the uh... line i would say the biggest downside i was worried about before i started doing a little bit more research was
10:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Disjax and Dart end up scooting in for six or 10 rushing touchdowns of his own.
10:15
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm looking back at, you know, what I think this offense might look like.
10:18
[SPEAKER_00]: You have Matt Nagy coming in as the offensive coordinator.
10:19
[SPEAKER_00]: You also have Greg Roman as like the senior offensive assistant for the Giants.
10:23
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think when we look at like Greg Roman in his offense, you know, he was obviously in Baltimore for a while.
10:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Lamar was never really using side of the five-hour line.
10:31
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not used in the way that Josh Allen or Jalen Hertz are.
10:33
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's to protect him from, you know, getting hurt.
10:35
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think we'll see a lot of that carry over to a Jackson Dart.
10:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Todd Duncan was a guy who never used Lamar inside the five and I was like I bet like Greg Roman did a little bit more.
10:43
[SPEAKER_00]: What I found during those four seasons that Greg Roman was the OC and Baltimore.
10:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Lamar had a total of 16 carries inside the five yard line.
10:50
[SPEAKER_00]: So he total of just four in the entirety of the season.
10:53
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think when you have a guy like Jackson Dart, you want to protect him.
10:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Especially when you have a guy like Cam Scatobo where it's like we don't need to protect him.
11:00
[SPEAKER_00]: He's just going to, he's going to do what he wants to do regardless.
11:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's just chuck him up the middle and see what happens here.
11:05
[SPEAKER_00]: So, all that to say, again, really big fan of CamScatible this year, he will be a dude that I'm likely targeting pretty heavily in drafts, come redraft season, the three down skills set in an offense that I think can be pretty good this year, improvements on the offensive line, opportunities in the targeting game will get a lot of the goal line work.
11:23
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he gets the valuable touches there, and I think he proved last year that he's a pretty good player, and they want to use him to a very, very high capacity.
11:29
[SPEAKER_00]: So ultimately, I think I'm going to score Cam Scattle at a 7.5 out of 10, which is a very, very strong candidate for this list.
11:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Moving on to the next running back in the ADP Chamber, we've got Bucky Irving.
11:39
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think the first thing to do with Bucky Irving is the RB20 right now in ADP.
11:43
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he's going to continue to fluctuate as reports kind of come up and come down on his injury status.
11:48
[SPEAKER_00]: The biggest deterrent for him is whatever the hell is going on with his health.
11:51
[SPEAKER_00]: So I want to pull back because it was very odd last year.
11:54
[SPEAKER_00]: We never got a real read on what was going on with Bucky Irving.
11:58
[SPEAKER_00]: I want to give you guys a quick timeline to give you a reminder of like what happened a buckierving last year how it ended what's going on this summer and like catch you up to current date buckierving.
12:07
[SPEAKER_00]: So bucky started last year obviously coming off a really good rookie year and played the first four weeks and he was he was good.
12:13
[SPEAKER_00]: He was fine, right?
12:14
[SPEAKER_00]: And then he suffered both a foot spring and a shoulder subluxation in week four.
12:18
[SPEAKER_00]: And those two things kept him sideline until week 13.
12:22
[SPEAKER_00]: So the foot sprain was like the immediate short-term concern in which like he couldn't really run or plant whatever.
12:28
[SPEAKER_00]: And he eventually recovered from the foot sprain, but the shoulder injury was more of a long-term concern.
12:33
[SPEAKER_00]: So he comes back in week 13, the foot sprain is fine, but he saw a massive dip in his receiving performance when he ended up returning, which I think makes sense if you have a bad shoulder injury, like it's hard to pass block, it's hard to reach your hands above your head to like make plays in the passing game as well.
12:48
[SPEAKER_00]: So passing downs are tough for a guy, I think dealing with a shoulder injury.
12:51
[SPEAKER_00]: So the season ends and he has off season surgery on the shoulder.
12:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Todd Bulls comes out and lights Twitter on fire by saying the team expects him back sometime in the summer or fall.
13:04
[SPEAKER_00]: And when you hear that you're like, okay, sometime in the summer or fall can mean July, can mean August when you say the fall, like the fall literally goes into, you know, October and November.
13:13
[SPEAKER_00]: So people were like losing their minds.
13:15
[SPEAKER_00]: And then like five seconds later, Bucky Irving showed up and was participating in OTAs.
13:20
[SPEAKER_00]: Their non-contact, and I imagine it'll probably be non-contact for a lot of the drills that they do, recovering from the shoulder injury, but it definitely eases the concern around a lot of the negative injury.
13:29
[SPEAKER_00]: And other, you know, tweet from Deepak Shona, low concern average six months from February surgery, data strongly favors playing week one, plus return to pre-injury production.
13:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Look at Dr. Jesse Morse, the normal timeline for return to contact is about six to nine months depending on specifics.
13:43
[SPEAKER_00]: The good news is there's a very good chance he returns to 100% full strength once he is surgically cleared.
13:49
[SPEAKER_00]: So it will depend on the timeline again.
13:50
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he'll probably be non-contact for the majority of the summer here.
13:55
[SPEAKER_00]: What I think is the bigger concern, like we know Bucky's a good running back.
13:57
[SPEAKER_00]: We know he's elusive.
13:58
[SPEAKER_00]: We know he's explosive.
13:59
[SPEAKER_00]: We know he can perform at the NFL level.
14:01
[SPEAKER_00]: It's what kind of committee are we going to see in Tampa Bay?
14:04
[SPEAKER_00]: Now they let Rashad White walk, but they did sign Kenneth Gainwell, which is like, you know, you're you're letting your pass catching back walk out.
14:11
[SPEAKER_00]: And that was a guy that they kind of like had given up on.
14:12
[SPEAKER_00]: I think like by the end of Bucky's rookie year, they kind of faced him out.
14:16
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think they wanted to use a much less year until Bucky's injury.
14:19
[SPEAKER_00]: And then they sign Kenneth Gainwell to a two year 14 million dollar deal.
14:23
[SPEAKER_00]: which I think in my eyes allows him to operate almost definitely as they're passing down back.
14:29
[SPEAKER_00]: And I also think there's a world where Sean Tucker is really, really involved on the goal line last year.
14:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Sean Tucker led the team with nine carries inside the five yard line.
14:38
[SPEAKER_00]: And what's more of a shocking sad, I think, is while Bucky was hurt most of the year.
14:42
[SPEAKER_00]: He appeared in 10 games.
14:43
[SPEAKER_00]: So listen, he might have been at like 70% for six of those 10 games.
14:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Ultimately, Bucky had zero carries per PFR inside the five yard line.
14:53
[SPEAKER_00]: So you have Sean Sagaward 9, still on the roster, and you have Bucky Irving with zero.
14:58
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, it's not black and white, maybe it's injury, maybe we don't want to shove him up the middle when he's got the shoulder injury.
15:02
[SPEAKER_00]: But still a little bit alarming in terms of what this committee can end up being.
15:06
[SPEAKER_00]: So I look at Bucky Irving and I'm like, you know, what's the ceiling we can get from a dude like Bucky and I do think the ceiling is something like what we saw from Aaron Jones in 2024, which if you look at the numbers, it pretty underrated, but still somehow felt a little bit disappointing.
15:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Aaron Jones is the dude who like.
15:21
[SPEAKER_00]: quietly ended up with 14 to 1500 yards in skirmage, caught a decent amount of passes.
15:25
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it was in like the 50 range, scored six or seven touchdowns.
15:28
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's kind of a realistic outcome or ceiling form, given that we have Kenneth Gainwell who signed not enough thing deal.
15:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, we're shot white signed a one year $2 million deal with Washington.
15:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Kenneth Gainwell, two year $14 million deal.
15:41
[SPEAKER_00]: So they could have kept we're shot white for a much cheaper price.
15:44
[SPEAKER_00]: And they went out and filled the void with a guy that they clearly think is going to be a part of their backfield.
15:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Ultimately, when I look at Tampa Bay last year, I would definitely lean towards most of the offensive woes that they ended up, you know, going through, I would attribute a lot of those to injuries.
15:57
[SPEAKER_00]: You have bakers, shoulder injury, you have Evans, and a book is hamstring injuries.
16:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Godwin was returning from a very serious lower body injury the year before.
16:04
[SPEAKER_00]: Tristan Wurf's missed four games.
16:05
[SPEAKER_00]: So like, the narrative definitely still exists.
16:08
[SPEAKER_00]: I think there is a little bit of systemic risk.
16:10
[SPEAKER_00]: They are with the new offensive coordinator.
16:11
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's their fourth offensive coordinator in four years now, Zach Robinson coming over.
16:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, there's a chance that the offensive line is just not a top 10.
16:18
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, anymore, there's a chance that a boooka maybe is a little bit more second half of boooka than he was first half of boooka.
16:24
[SPEAKER_00]: The departure of Mike Evans definitely shifts the dynamic of this offense for sure.
16:27
[SPEAKER_00]: So again, I think this, there's a world where they're not a top half of the NFL offense, like maybe they're offense 17 or 18 or 19 or something like that.
16:35
[SPEAKER_00]: And that obviously hurts all the running backs in the backfield.
16:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Ultimately, I'm going to score a bucky of 5.5 at a 10 year.
16:41
[SPEAKER_00]: I think his pass catching ceiling is limited by kind of game will being here.
16:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I think his touchdown ceiling is limited by Sean Tucker taking a lot of the goal-line carries.
16:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, Bucky's not like a full fade for me by any means.
16:52
[SPEAKER_00]: He doesn't scream upside to me the way that going into last year felt like he might have that.
16:56
[SPEAKER_00]: The very next running back in ADP RB21 is Traveon Henderson and I went pretty deep into Traveon Henderson in a video I put out a couple of weeks ago talking about guys that I probably won't own very much of in fantasy this year and to me it's like buckierving RB20, Traveon Henderson RB21.
17:13
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a pretty easy choice for me.
17:15
[SPEAKER_00]: I won't go like super in depth here because I did so in the previous video and I will link that down below.
17:19
[SPEAKER_00]: If you want to watch that, also I'll be doing the same exact video version for the wider severs in the next video, so if you are not subscribed and you want to hang around for that, please subscribe to the channel.
17:30
[SPEAKER_00]: So ultimately we try to be on Henderson.
17:31
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's just very clear if they're going to use a committee here.
17:33
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it was very clear that Ramanjari just completely outperformed him last year.
17:37
[SPEAKER_00]: It was very clear that Ramanjari was a better passwalking back and a better in between the tackles runner.
17:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Josh McDaniel's still their OCD.
17:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Josh McDaniel has always historically used a running back by committee.
17:48
[SPEAKER_00]: And in the very, very few years that he had.
17:50
[SPEAKER_00]: hasn't done that, it was with a bigger bruising type of back, like a no-shon arena.
17:55
[SPEAKER_00]: So, I just don't see a world that was driven on Henderson becomes this workhorse running back in the offense.
17:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Can he make plays?
18:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Can he have, you know, big explosive games on a week-to-week basis?
18:03
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, that's what we go through in fantasy trying to figure shit out on a 17-game sample size here.
18:08
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, yeah, Trayvon had a couple blow up games last year, of course, when Remodry wasn't there.
18:12
[SPEAKER_00]: But Remodry's in the lineup, like Trayvon's not really going to have that opportunity to get 20-25 touches a game.
18:17
[SPEAKER_00]: many running backs that get a game in which they can get 20 to 25 touches are going to have big games.
18:22
[SPEAKER_00]: I saw a Jordan Mason earlier in the year.
18:23
[SPEAKER_00]: We saw it with the manual Wilson in Green Bay.
18:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Like it's not this is the replacement value of running back argument that everybody has when they talk about football and they talk about fantasy football is like you can kind of stick a lot of running backs into a starting role and if you're going to give them a ton of volume they're probably going to hit a couple of big plays and have a big outing overall and I think we saw that which
18:42
[SPEAKER_00]: You can look at a lot of the numbers.
18:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Remandre was actually more explosive.
18:45
[SPEAKER_00]: He was more elusive.
18:46
[SPEAKER_00]: He was a better pass blocking back.
18:48
[SPEAKER_00]: It's all that kind of stuff.
18:49
[SPEAKER_00]: I think their strength is schedule is pretty difficult.
18:52
[SPEAKER_00]: They also add a lot more target competition this year with AJ Brown and Romeo Dobbs coming in.
18:57
[SPEAKER_00]: So Henderson to me is going to get a three out of ten here.
19:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Moving to the very next running back in ADP.
19:04
[SPEAKER_00]: That is RB 22, Deondre Swift, Chicago Bears.
19:07
[SPEAKER_00]: He has finished basically every single season of his career as an RB2 in fantasy.
19:11
[SPEAKER_00]: To be fair, he missed the game last year, finished as the RB14 in full PBR.
19:14
[SPEAKER_00]: If he plays all 17, he probably sneaks in as the RB12 is not really qualified.
19:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Ben Johnson is just a maniacal run scheme coordinator.
19:22
[SPEAKER_00]: He is just so good with getting his running backs production.
19:24
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think something we talked about a ton less here on this channel, and I don't know that you get this on a lot of other, you know, base level fantasy channels is like the interior offensive line adjustments that they may bring in Joe Tune, Jonah Jackson and Drew Dalman was going to make a world of difference for the Chicago Bears, and that obviously was one of the biggest storylines of the entire year, and because of that, they finish as, you know, one of if not the best run blocking line in the entire NFL.
19:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, going into this year, we do have some changes because Drew Dalman, who signed a three-year deal coming over from Atlanta, Chicago, is one of the best rum-blocking centers in the league last year, just kind of randomly retired this off season.
19:56
[SPEAKER_00]: So they will not have him also Azi Patrello, ruptured his Achilles, they're starting left tackle in their playoff game last year, so he'll likely miss almost all of 20, 26.
20:04
[SPEAKER_00]: So I do think we'll see a little bit of natural regression from their offensive line and the rum-blocking ability, but I also think like
20:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Ben Johnson, year two, another year of Caleb Williams, having all these young playmakers kind of ascending into their prime at the same time, Luther Burton, Colson, Lovelin, Roman Dunes, I will take this offense enough up efficiency wise at even if it's a little bit tighter up the trenches in terms of run blocking, like the other factors in the offense will probably mitigate a lot of that.
20:29
[SPEAKER_00]: So we saw the Andres Swift score nine times on the ground, let's hear, which, you know, I haven't even touched on Kalmanunga.
20:35
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's that's probably the bigger talking point here is the rookie at a Rutgers last year, Kalmanunga was awesome.
20:41
[SPEAKER_00]: And by the end of the year, they were just purely splitting drives.
20:44
[SPEAKER_00]: It was DeAndres Swift gets his drive.
20:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Kalmanunga gets his drive.
20:47
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think a lot of the touchdowns are going to come down to whoever just ends up being on the goal line when that drive gets down there.
20:53
[SPEAKER_00]: However, I don't want to overthink it too much because if Ben Johnson's the play caller here, you also look back to his time in Detroit when Gibbs and Dave Montgomery were both eating on a weekly basis.
21:02
[SPEAKER_00]: But they were basically locks to score every single week here.
21:05
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think DeAndre Swift just has a very, very high floor being in this offense.
21:09
[SPEAKER_00]: If touchdowns break his way, you know, he scores somewhere in like the 8 to 11 range of touchdowns and it's an overall week running back year in terms of fantasy, you can definitely break the top 12, I think.
21:20
[SPEAKER_00]: But there's also a world where Ben Johnson feels common.
21:22
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm guys a little bit more equipped to take those gold line carries as a more of a bruising dude.
21:27
[SPEAKER_00]: That's also within the range of outcome.
21:28
[SPEAKER_00]: So for Swift, I would put him at about a 5.5 out of 10 here.
21:32
[SPEAKER_00]: Great chance to finish as the RB 18.
21:35
[SPEAKER_00]: He has to have a lot of things I think break in his favor for him to finish as a top 12 back though.
21:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Next up, we've got running back 23, Queen Sean Judkins, Cleveland Brown's second year runner.
21:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, fractured ankle, week 16, reportedly looking phenomenal, and exposed to an OTAs in camp so far.
21:51
[SPEAKER_00]: If you look at most of the Twitter doctors analysis of it, it was kind of like a best case scenario, because there was no knee aspect involved in it.
21:57
[SPEAKER_00]: So from everything I've heard from camp, following and trusting the people that I do trust to beat reporters, et cetera, and just kind of reading between the lines.
22:04
[SPEAKER_00]: Judkins feels like he's in a really, really good spot to be,
22:09
[SPEAKER_00]: healthy by the time week one rolls around.
22:11
[SPEAKER_00]: The obvious problem with Quincia Juttkins and his outlook going into 2026 is Cleveland, right?
22:17
[SPEAKER_00]: Last year, Juttkins faced the single highest percentage of eight plus defenders in the box.
22:23
[SPEAKER_00]: The offensive line was a bismal.
22:25
[SPEAKER_00]: He ranked dead last in yards before contact per attempt at a 49 qualified running backs.
22:30
[SPEAKER_00]: He was 49th in yards being opened up before he was actually contacted there.
22:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, they do have five brand new starters on the offensive line.
22:38
[SPEAKER_00]: They made some moves.
22:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Zion Johnson, Elkton Jenkins, Titus Howard.
22:42
[SPEAKER_00]: Top 10 pick out of Utah, Spencer Fano, third round pick another day to pick Austin Barber on the offensive line.
22:47
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's it's easy to say like, okay, they got an a lot of new talent coming in.
22:51
[SPEAKER_00]: How quickly are they able to gel?
22:54
[SPEAKER_00]: How quickly are they even good?
22:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Are these players going to be a good fit together?
22:58
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, there's only one way to go with this offensive line because of how bad they were, but there's also a realistic chance they go from the 30 second ranked offensive line to the
23:06
[SPEAKER_00]: 29th or 28th and you still don't really want to be selecting a running backs with really, really poor offensive lines like that that aren't necessarily in a very high scoring offensive situation.
23:14
[SPEAKER_00]: But ultimately, Joaquins was awesome when he was on the field last year.
23:17
[SPEAKER_00]: He looked a part of a war course running back last year.
23:20
[SPEAKER_00]: You also have to remember, he missed almost like all the entire summer with a legal situation last year where he didn't get into camp.
23:25
[SPEAKER_00]: He wasn't training at all until like the very last minute.
23:28
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think that's kind of a positive in his corner.
23:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Right now, you have Deshawn Watson and Shidorah Sanders banging it out for
23:35
[SPEAKER_00]: We don't know who's going to be the starter this year, not great regardless of how you cut it.
23:39
[SPEAKER_00]: I do want to leave a little bit of room though for the Cleveland Browns offense to be better than expected.
23:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, I really like Harold Fan and they went out and used the first round pick on KC Concepts Yone and then an early second round pick on Denzel Boston.
23:49
[SPEAKER_00]: So now you put Jerry Judy as maybe the wide receiver three and you've got some talented past catchers, maybe Shidorah's a little bit better than we want to give him credit for like we've been wrong about quarterback situations before.
23:58
[SPEAKER_00]: I think Shidorah showed some flashes last year, if he can improve and be a top
24:03
[SPEAKER_00]: 25 quarterback, like maybe this offense is a little bit better than we're giving credit for.
24:07
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think ultimately, conjunctins do what Nick Chub did there for a while, where he didn't catch a lot of passes, but even in years when Cleveland was not a very good team, he was still getting, you know, 300 calories and putting up 1,400, 1,500 yards on the ground there.
24:23
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's probably the upside case for conjunctins.
24:26
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think anyone would be super surprised if that ended up coming through here.
24:30
[SPEAKER_00]: So with Juggins ultimately, very easy to get excited about the talent, very difficult to get excited about the situation.
24:36
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm gonna give him a score of six out of 10.
24:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Next, I'll be on this list is David Montgomery.
24:40
[SPEAKER_00]: He has already finished as an RB1, and then we move on to RB25.
24:43
[SPEAKER_00]: So we have two more running backs left.
24:45
[SPEAKER_00]: We got RB25, Basheol, Tutin in Jacksonville.
24:47
[SPEAKER_00]: It's two ends and another dude that I don't wanna go to in-depth here, because I went really in-depth on the players with League Breaking Upside video.
24:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you Jackson, put that link down below.
24:56
[SPEAKER_00]: And ultimately, I have an optimistic outlook for base all two.
25:00
[SPEAKER_00]: And I spoke highly of him was not like a huge punten of him coming into the NFL.
25:05
[SPEAKER_00]: I didn't have like a very strong take on two.
25:07
[SPEAKER_00]: And as a rookie, Travis E. T.M.
25:08
[SPEAKER_00]: was obviously there and kind of ate him up in the backfield last year.
25:11
[SPEAKER_00]: But I do think two and it's kind of similar to the chase brown, very, very similar size, expulsiveness, athleticism, and situations where brown took a minute to,
25:19
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, get away from Zack Moss, get away from Smoggy P-Rine before busing out becoming this legitimate like workhorse in the NFL.
25:25
[SPEAKER_00]: I thought we saw a lot of good from BaseHall 2 in last year and now obviously Travis he Tiana's moved over to the New Orleans Saints, but they did bring in Chris Rodriguez who was reuniting with Liam Cohen.
25:35
[SPEAKER_00]: They were together at their time in Kentucky.
25:37
[SPEAKER_00]: So there is a little bit of that going against to in Chris Rodriguez.
25:40
[SPEAKER_00]: However, it is missing a lot of time with a foot injury right now.
25:43
[SPEAKER_00]: So we'll see if that plays into it.
25:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Ultimately, I think to and just so much more explosive and gives this off and so much more upside than a guy like Chris Rodriguez does.
25:51
[SPEAKER_00]: The Queen Allen will probably take a decent amount of pass down work here.
25:55
[SPEAKER_00]: This is a very good scene.
25:56
[SPEAKER_00]: They're projected to win 10 games this year in Vegas.
25:58
[SPEAKER_00]: And I wouldn't be surprised if they end up going
25:59
[SPEAKER_00]: over that mark.
26:00
[SPEAKER_00]: So I don't think it's going to be a situation where, you know, Jeremiah love needs to be on the field a lot as the past catching back because they're only projected to win four games.
26:08
[SPEAKER_00]: This is a good team that's going to be able to control the clock that's going to be able to control their offense, kind of play the way that they want to play.
26:13
[SPEAKER_00]: And even when they're traveling, it probably won't be by the number where you need to have a specific pass down back on the field for it.
26:19
[SPEAKER_00]: So.
26:20
[SPEAKER_00]: tons of opportunity.
26:21
[SPEAKER_00]: This is like explosive running back in an uncertain committee tied to a very good offense, you know, 20 touchdowns by this backfield last year, and then nine rushing score for Trevor Lawrence.
26:31
[SPEAKER_00]: So this could be a backfield that scores 25 touchdowns this year, right?
26:34
[SPEAKER_00]: And if they shall two ends seeing 50% of the snaps, like probably ends up with eight to 10 overall touchdowns.
26:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Their fantasy playoffs drank the schedule, Dallas and Washington week 16 and 17 is beautiful, E.T.
26:44
[SPEAKER_00]: and saw a ton of screen targets last year.
26:46
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that could be Base All Tutans roll.
26:48
[SPEAKER_00]: So, yeah, the floor is obviously him just being in a three-down committee with Rodriguez taking a lot of the early-down roles to in seeing 10 to 12 touches per game and the Quinn Allen playing on.
26:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, passing down situations, but I think there's a world where two and just completely separate themselves from the rest of the backfield.
27:02
[SPEAKER_00]: So, I'm going to give Base All Tutans on this list of five at a ten.
27:05
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the committee approaches very real, but I also think the upside of the player is very real as well.
27:10
[SPEAKER_00]: So moving on to the very last player on the list, and of course if you've enjoyed this video up to this point, go hit the button.
27:15
[SPEAKER_00]: That looks like this would be very much appreciated and subscribe if you want the wider receiver version coming later this week.
27:21
[SPEAKER_00]: RB26, Jadarian Price, the very last pick of the first round for this Yaddle C-Hawks.
27:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, C-Hawks lose kind of the walk at a free agency.
27:29
[SPEAKER_00]: He's in Kansas City.
27:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Zack Charbonet, tears his ACL in late January.
27:33
[SPEAKER_00]: that gives him seven months to return for week one.
27:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Right now, I think a lot of the talk kind of centers itself on Charmene projecting a late October early November return.
27:44
[SPEAKER_00]: So today our price will have every opportunity to dominate this backfield early on.
27:50
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a little bit of a tough evaluation obviously because he played behind Jeremiah Love at Notre Dame.
27:54
[SPEAKER_00]: So Notre Dame had both of the first round running backs drafted in this year's NFL draft and he was never
28:00
[SPEAKER_00]: He is a good fit for the Seattle scheme.
28:03
[SPEAKER_00]: They do not have Clint Kubiak anymore, though.
28:05
[SPEAKER_00]: He is now the head coach of the Raiders.
28:07
[SPEAKER_00]: They got Brian Flurry coming in, former San Francisco Rungian coordinator and tight-ends coach.
28:12
[SPEAKER_00]: And they also signed Emmanuel Wilson, the former Green Bay, back up running back to a one year, $2.1 million deal.
28:18
[SPEAKER_00]: So ultimately, the backfield looks like this right now, sharp, coming back from injury.
28:21
[SPEAKER_00]: You have GDRM price at the top of it, but George Alonni's been getting a lot of runs with the one as well.
28:25
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he'll end up probably having a passing down roll.
28:27
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think Emmanuel Wilson will chip in for a couple of carries a game and be more of like a breather back for GDRM price.
28:32
[SPEAKER_00]: I will again say though, while the first round draft capital is phenomenal, it is important to note that while I went through all those great performing players for GDRMI love, once you get to the second half of first round running backs, you do start having a little bit
28:46
[SPEAKER_00]: faltering within how consistent these guys produce, especially as rookies.
28:50
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, we have an example of this, you know, in this team, in this franchise and Seattle, not too long ago when they took were shot penny and then Chris Carson came in and just ate that man's lunch as a seventh round pick.
29:00
[SPEAKER_00]: So with your dairy in price, I'm not off your dairy in price.
29:03
[SPEAKER_00]: If it's if it's price,
29:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Ironically gets too high.
29:06
[SPEAKER_00]: I probably will be.
29:07
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not someone I'm like fading, not someone I'm targeting.
29:09
[SPEAKER_00]: I'd be okay having him on my team because I think the path to him being an RB1 is incredibly clear.
29:14
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a first round pick.
29:14
[SPEAKER_00]: He'll likely be seeing 12 to 15 touches out of the gate.
29:17
[SPEAKER_00]: And if he's good, if he is a legitimate first round talent, you don't have much of a reason to not let him rip for the remainder of the year.
29:23
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you have a first round running back, you know, seeing 15 plus such as per game, he's likely going to finish inside the top 12 fantasy running backs by years end.
29:31
[SPEAKER_00]: On the flip side, there's a very real committee, though, that he doesn't get passing down work, that Zack Sharbernade comes back in week eight to 10, and then that's a clear committee in the most important part of your fantasy season.
29:41
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's my biggest deterrent when it comes to jadarian price.
29:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think there's a lot of room for error here for him because of Sharbers return later on in the season.
29:48
[SPEAKER_00]: This could end up being very similar to what we saw last year and it's just like you can never predict on a weekly basis whether it's gonna be a Kenneth Walker game or Zack Sharbernade game who's gonna be on the field inside the 10 yard line.
29:59
[SPEAKER_00]: That gets really messy
30:00
[SPEAKER_00]: when you were in weeks 12, 13, 14, fighting for a playoffs spot.
30:03
[SPEAKER_00]: And then you're actually in the fancy playoffs.
30:05
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like having a dude who's an unconfident, incompetent, non-confident, or be three on your team feels like a waste.
30:12
[SPEAKER_00]: So path isn't incredibly clear.
30:13
[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of opportunity out the gate.
30:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Just be good.
30:15
[SPEAKER_00]: And you will probably be able to be good for the rest of the season.
30:18
[SPEAKER_00]: I think because that's so clear, I'm gonna end up putting him at a six out of ten, which is relatively strong on this list, I think.
30:25
[SPEAKER_00]: But
30:25
[SPEAKER_00]: The guys are early on, the Jeremiah Loves gets a 9.5 out of 10 camps catabok.
30:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Those types of guys will obviously have much more opportunity, better chance to finish as an RB1 this year in fantasy football, and I will wrap up there.
30:35
[SPEAKER_00]: You will see the culmination and the conclusion of all the guys and their scores right here.
30:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Up on the screen, again, if you enjoyed the video, hit the button, it looks like this.
30:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Subscribe to the channel if you want to see the wider sea reversion of this video, and I will be back in a few days.
30:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Love y'all.