Taiwan Contingency Planning from RAND

VocaCast: Any Topic, Explained · Oct 22, 2026 · 4m

Here is the most unsettling idea in this whole debate. A conflict over Taiwan could be won by a blockade that never fires a shot, and the danger may come from that very restraint. Planners at the US Department of Defense increasingly treat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as the "pacing scenario," the benchmark that shapes how the military builds its forces.

Briefing as of October 22, 2026. Later developments are not covered.

Sources:

[1] Denial Without Disaster: Keeping a U.S.-China Conflict over Taiwan Under the Nuclear… — Center for Global Security Research

[2] Denial Without Disaster—Keeping…