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Cognizant Classic - PGA Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | Single-Entry GPP Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, all systems go clear, lift up. What's up? Ember one?
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Tyler Tambalaine here aka to Tag and Tambo back for
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: another edition of Leverage Lane PGA edition. We're gonna be
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: breaking down the Cognizan Classic this week. Got my guy
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Alex Blickel here with me as always, and we said
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: from the start doing the show, be a little bit
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: of a you know, a work in progress and try
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: and dial it in. I think we really got the
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: NFL sort of structure down this one. We want to
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: kind of change it up just a little bit. I
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: think it'll be exciting for everyone breakdown all of that
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: and more as we get through the show as usual.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: But Alex, I'll bring you in first man, coming off
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: of a week. You know, last week's a little bit
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: different than what we've got going forward for this week,
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: so I know, be a little less of a recap
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: with this one. We don't have to worry about to
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Scottie or not to Scotty. There's not a ton of
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: weather to talk about this week, and there's always weather,
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: but we don't have to get into it where it
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: gets quote unquote or pun intended overblown. But how you doing,
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: my friend and then we'll sort of break down what
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: this is going to look like for this week and
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: moving forward.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: That was probably the worst DFS week I've had in
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: like three years. That was awful, and it was all
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: about the missed like four footers. I can't tell you
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: how many times I would I was watching like PGA
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: Tour live and I'd see two guys roll in twenty
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: five footers and then they'd cut to my guy and
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: he three putt from six feet? What the hell is
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: going on? So it was it was not fun. But
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: I like the fact we talked a little bit before
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: the show about how, like last week, it was really
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: important to recap the prior week because we basically had
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: the exact same DFS puzzle in front of us, So
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: it's the same pricing structure, it's the same field size,
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: basically everything was was similar, and all that change was
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: the course. This week, We've got an entirely new field,
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: really interesting field to talk about, especially with all the withdrawals.
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: So excited to get into this one.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I will say just you know one thing about
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: this late super excited for this conversation because I know
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: what everybody thinks. It's the same and they all, Oh, yeah,
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: all the d slates suck and all those withdrawals at
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: the top of that can be a fantastic thing. I'm
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: actually very excited about this late from the game theory perspective,
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: and with that said, that's part of it. So when
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: we did this show during NFL, we completely focused on
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: single entry and that's it, and it was awesome. And
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: I don't know, you know, necessarily what will change next year.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: You know, we're doing that show again and you know,
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: go back to it and see how it goes. But
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: I will say there's been enough people reach out. The
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: show is leverage Lane, how can we leverage things? There's
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: not just single entry players, there's not just tournament players.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: And I had a lot of people enough to actually
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: have this conversation with you and now to bring it
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: here today to say that we would love to still
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: hear what Tambau and Alex have to say on the
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: MME side of things, because there's different leverage points. Like
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: today will be a big conversation for single entry, but
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: it'll also be around what you're doing. You have a
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: portfolio of lineup, so we are going to keep the
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: focus on leveraging and we are going to go down
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: leverage lane like we'll usually do and break down a
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: lot of the same stuff as usual. The chalk build
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: will be broken down for single entry purposes. We've got
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: one of the best single entry players out there across
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: all sports, but certainly in PGA with Alex, so to me,
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: that's the kind of point I want to hit on.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: But now we will have some mmy angles to it
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: as well. I think this week's going to be a
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: really good week to start that well, have great conversation
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: when we get to all the names that are just
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: getting boosted because of the setup at the top with
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: all the WDS, we'll still break down a little bit
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: of a recap if required. We're going to take a
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: topic every week. This week we're going to talk about
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: satellites and contest selection based around that, so Alex and
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: I are going to go there. That was one of
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: the comments from last week. It was kind of not
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: really a full on comment, just to mention, but we
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: responded to it and then thought of some good stuff
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: to bring to the show this for today, and then
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: each week we'll have a new topic and then we'll
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: get to the course fit. We'll break down the chalk
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: build how we can leverage it in single entry and EMMY,
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: and then we'll get to our lanes for those respective
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: areas as well. At the end, Alex, anything I missed
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: orning you want to add there.
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: So I think it's also important to bring up to the
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: fact that, like, you know, that's one of the most
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: common questions that I've gotten is is just asking more
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: about what my satellite processes. And it's really cool because
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: you and I both kind of like independently found satellites
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: in our own way, and I feel like we were
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: some of the first in the industry to say, hey,
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: wait a minute, like these are really really cool and
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: a really great way to enhance the ceiling of your
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: DFS play without having to spend significantly more money on
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: entry fees each week. So kind of raising the upside
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: of your DFS play without hurting your floor at all.
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: And we probably have drastically different satellite strategies because I'm
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: single entry and you're more of an MME approach. So
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: it's actually gonna be really cool, I think to start
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: this kind of single entry verse MME approach while talking
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: about these satellites. And the final point I'll make is
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: we like satellites in also sports. But I think people
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: who are just starting satellites or they've never done it before,
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: golf is the ideal place to start because the PGA
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: season is kind of built around the major championships and
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: the Players Championship, and the satellites are built around the
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: major championships and the Players Championship, And so right now
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: in the lobby, we have already a bunch of satellites
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: to try and get tickets to contests for the masters
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: and for the players. So it's going to be really cool,
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: I think, to talk through this, and you know, hopefully
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: what we build from this is like a very communal
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: approach to Hey, everyone is talking about whether or not
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: we qualified yet, whether we have tickets to these contests,
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: and we will also do I think a will make
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: a very concerted effort to not just talk about what
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: we are doing with our own satellite play, but how
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: would we approach it if we were starting at a
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: lower bank roll, if we only had fifty dollars a
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: week to spend, what would we be doing to try
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: and build up to the point where we're able to
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: play satellites the way you and I do now. So
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: this is gonna be really fun conversation all around. I'm
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: really really excited to talk to it all.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I thought it was one of the best topics
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: to start with, just because it's a way that, again,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: what does everybody watching us want to do. They want
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: to get a bigger bankroll, they want to win money,
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: they want to get there, and this is one of
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: the ways that you can do.
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: That.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Is not to say satellites are easy. The best players
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: in the world play in satellites. It is literally no different.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: I know, you know Monday q on, you know, PGA, Golf,
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: Twitter X now, whatever you wanna call it. But I'm
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: just saying, like those went away somewhat and all that setup,
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: but that was kind of the same idea, like, yeah,
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: you're going to a Monday queue. You have a chance
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: to get into a PGA event. And this is why
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: I've always compared dfs as like the individual sport. The
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: ability to stick around. You know, you win a big
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: tournament for one hundred K. It's kind of like a
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: good way to keep your card if you will for
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: to giuse you the bank roll to stay in the game,
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: if you stay disciplined in all these other factors, so
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: satellites are important to me. I've always talked about the secrets
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: of satellites. But at those events, you were still playing
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: the best of the best golfers, and you know the
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: que guys that got through. Typically you're like, oh, yeah,
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: I know those guys. Well, there's a lot of guys
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: you know that didn't get through as well. So yes,
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: you will have to go up with some of the
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: best of the best, but you will get ends when
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: take all et cetera. In most cases there is megas
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: that have extra seats to them, but just in general,
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: you will get to play against a much smaller field
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: and you can boat race those things, like you could
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: have a lineup that would finish thirteenth in the five
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: dollars drive the green, where it's like, damn, that got
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: me nothing basically for five bucks. It turn it into
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: like one fifty. But I want to ticket to the
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: thirty three thirty three at the Masters, and my second
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: point before I kick it back to and we'll talk
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: about your strategy first, Like you can literally win all
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: the satellites with one entry because you're playing single entry.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: I'm sort of spraying at them, and I'll go into
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: my approach in a bit, but just noting it. It's
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: not because we get you know, like people always looking
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: at like, oh, you just want to play more tournaments
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: at the Masters because it's a major all these like
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: however you want to look at it, I don't really
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: care what you think, and it's all like teach their own,
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: But it's really just wanting to play in tournaments that
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: are higher buy ins, better structures, smaller fields, life changing
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: or game changing or bankroll changing, however you want to
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: put it money and being able to do it that way.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: That matters a lot more than you know. For some
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: it's the prestige for others, So just to finally play
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: in a big event whatever that looks like first live
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: final for some people, things like that. So everyone has
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: their own reasoning for it, but it's nothing to do
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: with like it's the Masters. I'm gonna if it was
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: at the Player I don't care if it was at
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: the Valero Texas Open. If they're having a big tournament
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: at that, I'm wanting to get into the biggest tournament
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: with the smallest field, the best payout structure, and the
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: most out of money to be won with the strategy
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: that I think I can exploit and use to my advantage.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: So I don't you have further thoughts on that, Alex,
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: But if you do, go ahead. If not, let's hop
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: into sort of your approach for satellites coming from the
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: single entry perspective.
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, should should we share a screen? I can share
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: mine to kind of go through the lobby of the
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: actual contest we're looking at instead of just referencing them.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, if you want to throw it up there, you know,
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: and use that while you're explaining it, that might work.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, I've got some other thoughts, but it might help. Yeah,
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: if you want to pull that up, we can toss
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: it up on the screen there.
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: How does it look? Can you you got it there?
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: Try clicking? Can you click add to screen to the
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: bottom or won't let you there?
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: We go, okay, all right, yeah it looks like you
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: can see that. I'll blow it up even more so.
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: This is the uh, the satellites and qualifiers part. And
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: you'll notice like I'm already in a bunch of these.
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: But essentially what I do is I want to make
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: sure that both the satellite that I'm playing and the
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: contest that I'm trying to get into fit my strategy,
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: and my strategy is built on trying to get into
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: the top one percent of small field contests, and so
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: I don't want to go and you know, I sometimes
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: I'll do like the nine hundred dollars for a World
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: Golf Championship seat, but like, I'm probably not gonna do
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: the the fourteen dollars for you know, up against twenty
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: three hundred people. I'm also not going to go and
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: do a four hundred and forty eight dollars with only
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: eleven people because I want to beat more than eleven people.
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: I want to go up against closer to one hundred people.
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: So where I start is I come down and these
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: are the contests that I love this MILLI for the players,
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: we can click this it's a four four four four
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: and there are let's see does it say, oh, it
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: doesn't say how many people are in that actual contest,
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: but usually this is like a six hundred person seven
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: hundred person type contest. Every now and then it gets
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: stretched to a thousand or something like that. But then similarly,
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: we've got this Master's contest as well, and oh man,
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: they're not even Okay, here we go, so you can
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: see this one is a three thousand, three hundred and
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: thirty three dollars contest, and this one probably will be
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: a little bit more. This one will probably be thirteen
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: hundred people or something like that.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: That one's in the lobby actually, so I can give
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: you that one exactly right now, so just what you're doing.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: That's kind of fun of it. If you go to
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Classic and Masters right now, you can see that one
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: has one thousand, six hundred and sixty six entrants. It's
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: paying out twenty percent to first, but the payout structure
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: in that is one million, five hundred thousand, three hundred,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: two hundred one fifty one hundred seventy five seventy five
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: fifty to fifty. So yeah, it's a little bit more
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: from first, second to first, but ninth and tenth are
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: both ten percent of second place five hundred k. And
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: it's all kinds of six figure payouts, which for everybody
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: that would be a huge boost to the bankroll and
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: in some cases life changing depending on the number you
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: actually win.
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: There. Yeah, that's a lot flatter than I would have expected.
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: So that's that's great. And so even though those are larger,
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: they still fit my strategy a little bit. It's very
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: different than like you can come down here and see
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: you know, there are tickets that you can enter for
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: very cheap, but they get you into the MILLI that
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: has fifty thousand people or one hundred thousand people whenever
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: that is. So those are obviously then going to be
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: a lot hard to win. So anyway, going back to
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: what I will do is I'm going to enter all
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: of these where starting at the seventy dollars, I have
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: to beat seventy two people, so you can see them
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: already in that one, then the thirteen dollars and the
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: nineteen dollars and the thirty seven dollars and the fifty
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: six dollars, and I'm going to play one lineup, the
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: same lineup in all of these, And so there is
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: a chance that I'll do really really well and I'll
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: win all of those tickets. But what I've also found
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: it's like, even though I'm doing one lineup, more often
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: than not, if I win, I'm winning one or two.
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: I don't know why mcleven's name is stuck up here.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: He's everywhere, man, he doesn't go away. He haunts your dreams.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: It doesn't matter what you try and do with.
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: DFS mack leven is there so and anyway, yeah, you know,
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: there are gonna be times where I finish first in
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: this seventy dollars and win that ticket, but then I'm
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: fourth here and fifth there, and second in this thirty
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: seven dollars and second in this fifty six hours. Like man,
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: I came so close, but I did get that one ticket.
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: And so this strategy has worked really well for me
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: over time. And like I said, the cool thing is,
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: I'm going to have the exact same lineup in all
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: these qualifiers as I do in my favorite single entry contest,
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: which is this two hundred dollars single entry two hundred
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: and seventy seven entrance and ten k to first. So,
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: you know, because these are similar structures, because the goal
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: in all of them is essentially finish in the top
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: one percent, I can take the same strate throughout. I
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: don't have to have one strategy for this lineup and
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: a second strategy for that lineup. It all fits my
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: skill set and my my week two week strategy. And
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: so knowing you know, how how I tailor my approach
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: to what I think my strengths are, I'm not really
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: interested to hear what you how you approach it given
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: the fact that you like to play multiple lineups and
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: take different strategies on each lineup.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so you can leave that up for a second
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: and we'll let mock love and continue to haunt our dreams.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: But Kenny said this, and I think you answered in
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: the ending there. But like he said, y'all single entering
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: these multi entry cues, and like you do have one
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: entry there in your in say like the thirteen dollar, right,
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: which is a if you went out of the thirteen
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: dollars for a second, I think it's twelve max yep right. Yeah,
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: So that's the players the March twelfth tournament set up
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: starting point. So I think March twelfth is the I
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: think they use the thursday it starts. But that's why anyway,
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: my point being, you're fine with that because they're all
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: under give or take four hundred ish members and you're
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: playing to like four hundreds entry sorry, and you're playing
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: to beat that type of tournament seventy seven. You gotta
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: beat them all the three four It doesn't matter you
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: have it or you don't. But to your point, if
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: you come up short in that, let's say you finished
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: second in the thirteen dollars. Yeah, that sucks, but you
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: probably won by fifty in the seventy dollars. Like again,
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: doesn't mean you will not guaranteed, but when you're going
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: up against seventy people or seventy two or whatever it was,
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: it doesn't matter. But because you're playing against that field,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: it makes sense to that point. Now, it's funny because
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: mine is kind of the same, but in a different
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: way altogether. So I will play almost a twenty max approach.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: So I play the thirteen dollar and I'll max it out.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: I'll play the seventy dollars with two of my mains,
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: I'll play the you know, the fifty six dollars with
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: two others, and then like in the end, that's almost
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: twenty lineups. So if there's a big week, maybe i'll play.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: If I'm playing something like a mega, let's say they
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: have the two seventy six with ten seats or something
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: like that. As we get closer to it, well then
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: I'll play that as my actual main, and my two
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: seventy six will be my two hundred dollars single entry
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: will be my everything. But I'm playing for maximum upside.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: Like those tournaments, the ones that I'm putting into the
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: thirteen dollar, I promise you if I come second, it's
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: because I have like a five of six. I'm winning
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: that thing. When I'm winning it, when I win my
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: satellite tickets, it's usually by thirty plus points because I'm
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: playing for maximum leverage, the show's leverage lane. I'm playing
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: for maximum upside. There is no like chalk with just
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: a few pivots in those lineups. Now, in the seventy dollars,
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: which is a two max, I am playing two lineups
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: inate When I'm playing it, it's it's that could be
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: the one like I had a few weeks ago. If
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: you remember when I won the Mega ticket. In that one,
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: it was everybody was twelve percent owned, but it was
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: a seventy man tournament, and I had a strategy. It
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: was a north course stack missing out on like three
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: of the highest owned plays that just happened to have
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: like all of the secondary or the tertiary like owned,
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: you know, ten to fifteen percent on guys from a
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: from a course stack. So when I'm doing this in
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: the thirteen dollar, those are all they can be. In
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: the three dollars twenty max. They can be in the
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: ten dollars eighteen max. They can be in the five
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: dollars drive the Green with one hundred kff top. I
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: really don't care. I'm playing them to win everything, and
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: so it's like I'm gonna play just to beat a
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: four hundred and down versus yours. Is that way. I'll
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: probably get less tickets that way, but I've definitely had
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: weeks where I win the thirteen dollars by fifty. It
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: makes me, you know, a few hundred bucks and the
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: other tournaments that it's in. But then my seventy dollars
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: is on the same line as those as kind of
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: the bunch are, and it just happens to me that
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: I still have a good enough one in that, so boom,
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: I still get two tickets with two different lineups, and
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: I've definitely had that. So the other thing is sometimes
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: if I like it enough, this seventy dollars lineup could
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: be the same one that's in the two seventy six,
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: that's in the fifty six. It's like, look, I just
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: have the lineup I want this week. I don't need
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: to distinguish it and move it around. So I will again,
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: still using portfolio approach for all the other stuff. But
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: instead of having three main lineups or something that I'm
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: focusing on, I just have got the one that I want.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: I don't have an alt version of that. It could
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: be a week like that, by the way, this week
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: where it's like I'm gonna be spraying in tournaments and
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: we'll talk about that in a minute. With all the
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: game theory and the way this cord, this is like
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: a perfect storm to me. We'll get there in a bit.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: But just noting it. For satellites on my main I
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: may just have a Maine I'm playing in the two
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: hundred dollars. I like the two hundred dollars with fifty
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: k up top it's a bit bigger field. But again,
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: my mind sort of works that way anyway, So just
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: noting it, that's my approach. Do you have any sort
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: of you know, rebuttal follow up questions. If people have questions,
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: they can put them in the chat. And then we
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: got one more from Kenny that you know he brought
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: up for you.
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, I've got a few things and uh and
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: two questions for you. So the first thing I want
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: to bring up is this kind of goes without saying,
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: but it is worth noting there are seventy two people here.
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: There's only one thing that you can possibly win in
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: this contest. You either win the ticket for four thousand
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: and forty four dollars or you win nothing. Second or
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: last place does not matter. So yeah, this is like
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: an even more extreme version of the tournaments that we
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: often play. And that's especially too when you get to
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: like the thirteen dollars and now it's you're either first
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: of four hundred and two and you get the ticket
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: or your last place. And it is a little different
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: because you can also go up top and like I yeah,
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: so here there are going to be some cash price
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: if you're trying for one of the World Championship tickets.
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: But notice like if you get second for one hundred
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: and fifty dollars, that doesn't matter. It's not consequential at all.
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: You either win the ticket or you don't.
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: It's just they didn't have enough, kid, just so some
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: people know, it's they did not have enough cash left
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: over to give another ticket and they're not going to
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: add it on top. So it literally just is like
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: a consolation. But some weeks they've made it actually where
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: those don't even have tickets as bad. Like, if you
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: go off, what's the four to thirty eight? Is the
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: four to thirty eight at the very top or somewhere
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: in there it's four thirty eight. I think that just
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: gets a trade up. Yeah, tickets trade up.
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah. So I first question for you. You you kind
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: of answered this a little bit already, so I know
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: you are very much well, let me ask it this way.
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: So do you build like twenty lineups first and then
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: pick which ones you want to go in which qualifiers?
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: Or are you going to disqualifyer and saying okay, here's
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: a seventy dollars qualifier, let me go into there and
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: build what I want this lineup to be. And then
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: you go to the thirteen dollars and now you build
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: what those twelve lineups are going to be. So are
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: you building other lineups first and then assigning the lineups
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: to qualifiers or are you building each qualifier lineup as
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: you go?
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah? I actually always build I've talked about this a
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: ton over in the DFS Mastermind project. I actually always
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: build out first. I've actually given this. I've had this
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: conversation on a mentorship call, the one on one stuff
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: that I do with somebody the other day. They said, look,
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: I really I played twenty max, but I really struggle
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: getting down to a twenty max pool. And I suggested
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: that They said, what ends up happening is I can't
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: make cuts in all these different areas, and what ends
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: up happening is they end up having like forty golfers
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: for twenty max entry. And they're like, well, I only
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: end up and I end up with five percent Xander
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: last week, end up with five percent Henley, five percent
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: Ben Griffin. But it takes away from the guys I
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: actually wanted more of at the top. So I suggested
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: to them, like, what you might want to do is
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: pretend you're playing one point fifty or whatever and build
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: out they're not playing that many lineups, but you'll start
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: to see, oh, now it's all of a sudden you
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: only have two percent Ben Griffin. It's not to say
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: you can't use both, but just noting like that would
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: give you a good idea of who you actually want
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: more of and help you make those cuts easier. So
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: I always do, even with football, I talk about this
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: a ton. I go from thirty thousand feet above. I
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: want everything on the table first, and then work backwards.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: My main builds I'm building by hand, whatever strategy I'm
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: putting in or thought process or looking at different twov
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: twos and things like that, or all by hand. That's
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: like my three that I'm talking about. If I do
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: the two, seventy six, the seventy, and the seventy, those
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: are all going to be by hand. But for the
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: other like the thirteen dollars, I'm just kind of selecting
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: based off I always call it virtually handbuilding. But once
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: I have my one fifty or my twenty max, I
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: can just sort of pick and choose the ones. Like
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: I told you that I think have the most leverage,
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: the highest upside, the ceiling outcome. I'm playing to like
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: boat race the thing so that if I come up short,
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: I could still win by ten. Like that. That's how
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: I look at It. Doesn't mean it's gonna be right.
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: It's more of a feel at that point, but it's
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: really not because again, because I've built out first, all
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: of my experience, process, strategy, et cetera is already put
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: into it. For me, the stone is the decision maker.
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: I talk about this all the time, like Sabersim is
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: the engine for me. The optimizer that I use, but
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: it's based off of all my decisions. It's like you
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: have a vehicle. I know they're self driving, so we
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: won't go into all the deep routes here, but you know,
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: typically if you're driving your own vehicle, you have to
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: know in your brain, your brain, where you're going. The
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: stone is my brain, and I have to know what
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: the directions are. Great, I got them now. My GPS
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: is Sabersim, and I put it in and it will
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: help guide me there. But I still got to drive it.
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: So it's like I'm driving the vehicle. It's the engine.
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: You have an Apple MacBook computer. Now they have their
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: own chips, but it used to be Intel chips in it.
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: To me, Sabersim is the chip that does it all,
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: that runs it all, But it's the decision driving process
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: that I'm putting into it. I'm setting it up for
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: what I want. So when I'm choosing those lineups, they're
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: not at random, they're not. I mean again, my thought
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: process is put into them, but they've been built off
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: of what I want to see happen. So I'm already
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: getting my leverage into my pool. Now I'm just selecting
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: from that pool for my satellite's what I'm using. Love that.
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I'm basically doing the same thing where
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: the GPP scores are largely driving me, but then instead
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: of the engine for me being an optimizer, it's it's
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: just my brain sits. I'm doing a handbuild. Next question
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: for you, So you've got these twenty lineups, they're going
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: into qualifiers. Are you also putting them in a twenty
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: max type contest or are you then spreading those over
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: single entries in three entries and some twenty max.
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Since I'm playing to win everything, like even like
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: my two hundred dollars, I get that it's only fifteen
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: hundred people. And there's different arguments or as the one
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: where I be on the opposite side, like I guarantee
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: you and love our partnership and love everybody over there,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: but the saber. Some guys would say, well, don't do that.
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: They're completely different tournaments. They are. I fully agree with them, actually,
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: and that's the value of the contest sims if you
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: have them. But again, nothing says I can't ignore that
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: and do it my own way because I understand what's happening.
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: I understand my risk verse reward. Do I need it
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: to be that aggressive? No, but I prefer it because,
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: like I said, when I aim for my perfection of
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: coming up, you know, winning the tournament, if I come
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: up short and hit excellent, maybe I only win the
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: tournament by ten points instead of the fifty I was
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: hoping for it. I just want to win. In the end,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: it still is Vin Diesel standing there on fast and furious,
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: an inchro a mile. Well, winning is winning, but it's
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: my thought process that goes into it. So yeah, it's
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: more of a I will play it in the like
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: I said, the ten dollars eighteen max, the three dollars
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: twenty max, the thirteen dollars twelve max. Mixed in with
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: the other ones, that already gets me to about fifteen
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: to eighteen lineups, give or take. And with all that,
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: there's some weeks there's two seventy dollars where I might
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: play all four of them. Right, I'll play four different
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: lineups and do it that way, and that covers it out.
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: So to me, it's about it's about twenty lineups, and
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: that's the ones that I stick to us sort of
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: my mains that I'm going after.
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: And by the way, I agree with you and disagree
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: with anyone who's saying you shouldn't play single entry that
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: aggressively just because it's single entry, because look at this
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: pays structure. This is driving me crazy. I don't know
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: why I Makeinglevin's name is still here in the way,
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: But twenty five percent is going to first and about
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: sixty percent is going to the top one percent of finishers.
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: There are eleven eleven people, so that means, like you know,
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: eleventh place is a top one percent finish. Sixty percent
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: of the pay prize is going to the top one percent.
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: If you're not playing that aggressively, you're playing it in correctly.
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: Twenty five percent's going to first place out of one
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: one hundred and eleven people play it aggressively. I'm so
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: in agreement with you on your strategy there, so.
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: I think I might answer someone Kenny's point here too, though,
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: right he says, I feel like I'm at such a
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: disadvantage when I do that. But to be fair, I
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: can't win the single lecture. One's either some nothing new's
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: making fun of himself as usual two point five inches
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: if you know you know, but just noting it. If
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: you do think about this. The way you're looking at
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: it is also I want to tie in and I'll
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: let you Rebuttal, it's your a question kind of for you,
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: but I do want to bring in. Sorry, that's the
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: next one I want to bring in. Go collect my guy.
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: Kyle says, I always enter the satellite lineup into a
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: GVP to maximize potential ROI in the case that it
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: is like to each your own. I don't know if
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: the exact right thing for this, but the reason I
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: say it kind of ties into what Kenny mentioned is
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: for you, if you come up short in the thirteen dollars,
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: like I said, and come second, you probably crush the seventy.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: Not always some Peter Gibbons mack loobn on the screens.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: Nobody could have you Tokal like one of those guys.
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: They could have a lineup that still outdoes you in
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: the seventy and it just is what it is. And
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: maybe they didn't even play the thirteen dollars so you
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: don't see it in both places, or maybe it is
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: them in both places. They're in first in both We
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: see that in NFL all the time. But it's kind
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: of that same thought process mine is the flip side
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: where yes, mine is still in the three dollars twenty max,
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: but in the three dollars twenty max with all those people,
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: which people, oh, but it's a twenty max. But it's
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: still a massive field, and so that's why the ceiling
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: matters and all this other stuff. The point would be
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: is in that one, it's go pull up the three
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: dollars payout structure for a second, or the ten dollars.
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, the ten dollars eighteen one is better, but
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: go pull up the three dollars twenty max. If you
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: can find it under the tournament three dollars twenty max.
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: If you can find it, that's probably up dot doubt
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: you got it right there, right, it's still twenty seven
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: almost thirty thousand entries. I get, like when you put
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: three bucks and turn it into five hundred, it's phenomenal. Sure,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: but I promise you that eleventh place for five hundred
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: is most weeks winning you the thirteen dollars. I can't
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: promise it, will, I'm saying, but I promise you. Like
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: that's kind of the for me. It's the opposite effect
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: of like, yeah, I only got five hundred, but it
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: smooths my feeling of losing the top nine to ten
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: spots after that to say, I got a forty four
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: to forty four ticket and now you know I still
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: have a chance down a million dollars where a min
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: cash beats first prize in the three dollars and oh yeah,
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: it's only against seven hundred people at the Players the tournament.
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: I love and all these different factors and feel good about.
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: So again, however you want to think about it is
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: up to you. But I think that's a key component
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: to mention. I know this is going a little bit
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: longer than usual, but I honestly think this is way
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: more valuable. And it sounds like the chat does in
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: some cases than you know us talking about a recap
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: of Scottie Scheffler missing his first ten top ten in
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: twenty events, like who gives a shit?
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: Can you bring up the question that was for me again?
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: So I correct me if I'm wrong, Kenny, But I
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: think he's asking about the fact that I'm only having
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: like one lineup up against four hundred and up again
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: guys who have twelve and that like thirteen dollars for example.
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, for you know, for context here too, and I'm
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: sure you remember this, but if you don't, just everybody
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: out there nose because not everybody watches every week, could
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: be a first time er. We appreciate you make sure
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: to hit that thumbs up and subscribe, but just noting it.
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: Kenny plays the Nosebleed stakes. He plays one lineup per week.
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: He's playing the thunder Dome. He's playing it in the
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: thirty one eight. So I mean he is playing the
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: thirty one eighty without max entries with one lineup, and
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: but again that's a smaller field, and obviously the Thunderdome
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: gets really small. But he was saying, I just feel
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: like I'm at such a disadvantage when I do that.
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: To his point of mentioning earlier of you entering one lineup, yes,
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: you're playing it in the seventy dollars with seventy two
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: people winner take all, but you're also throwing it into
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: the twelve max thirteen dollars where you're only playing one
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: instead of twelve.
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: It's funny. I know him as a different screen name,
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: but when you said he plays the Nosebleeds, he's a
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: click of who who Kenny is? So that's funny. So yeah,
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: I think what I'll say here is this is a
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: lot easier to do in PGA than another sports. I've
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: talked a lot about this in my discord. This is
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: a longer, more complex conversation than what we should have
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: here today on the show. There is a reason why
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: you should be afraid of playing against you know, really
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: good DFS players who have twelve chances against your one chance.
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: The simplest way I can, you know, say it quickly,
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: is that they're able to inversely correlate between lineups and
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: that puts you at a disadvantage. There is a strategy
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: that you can then use to counter that. But we'll
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: say that for my discord, and what I'll just say
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: is PG is a little bit different because it's really
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: really hard to do that in PGA in weeks where
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: there can be a wave advantage and it looks like
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: there's you know, there's a good chance that something is
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: going to be advantageous, but we don't know what and
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: so there's uncertainty there. Then I actually will avoid this
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: and I will only do like the seventy dollars and
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: the fifty six dollars and play it that way. But
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: and it's typical week like this one where correlation really
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: doesn't exist that much, then there's not really a disadvantage
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: whether you're playing against four hundred and two or four
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: hundred and one other entries where they're all four hundred
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: and one unique DFS players. Verse when you're playing a
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: twelve max against four hundred and one other entries and
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: so you know that you're going against some people who
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: have twelve different lineups, there's there's effectively no difference in
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: a week like this.
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'm not gonna drag the songs. Like I say,
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: we like this is the whole point of the Mastermind project,
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: the whole point of your discos. It's not the hide stuff.
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: When we were half hour into this conversation, but like I said,
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: no one really goes through this at all. And I
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this show unless it's something unique
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: to the industry. I literally had this conversation with Alex
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: last night. We already know everyone's doing the same show
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: every week. You can go watch those I support those
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: many of my friends, former colleagues, mentors, people I got
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: to do those shows. I just don't want to do
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: those shows. And luckily I have the fortune of not
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: having to do them if I don't want I want
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: to do this show and I want to have these conversations,
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: so I would decide to talk about this.
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean to elaborate on that, Like I enjoy
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: watching those shows, you know, I don't want to then
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: go do the exact show that I just watched. Yeah,
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: And when I do this show with Pat, I don't
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: want to do the exact same show the next day
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: that I just did the day prior. So having these
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: like really unique conversations is not just more valuable to everybody,
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: but I also think it's more fun on our end and.
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: The idea moving forward. I mean, this took a little
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: bit longer because we introted to just so you guys know,
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: but the idea of what we said from the start's
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: not changing. We want there to be evergreen content within
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: these shows. Meaning it's gonna break down pretty simple. The
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: first fifteen to twenty minutes are going to be a
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: topic like this that you can go take away. There's
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: a single entry mme perspective, You're gonna get everything you
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: need that way to the sport you want it to.
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: You can use it for instead of reviewing. You'll be
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: able to use. Like some weeks we will review and
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: that'll tie into the topic, but just little things like
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: that you'll be able to take away and then the
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: remaining thirty to forty minutes will be based around everything else.
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: The betting stuff. Alex already does a phenomenal job with
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: Pat breaking down you know, the Scotty to not Scotty
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: markets in betting, the three way, the each way with
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: three way. That's something you brought up recently. Like things
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: like that, you're already covering week after week, so it's
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: like better to keep that stuff there. We've got our
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: guy sheets does a lot more one and done stuff
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: like for us, we want to focus on DFS. Hopefully
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: this helps people. But these these satellites can be a
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: game changer for many people, and I know there's people
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: in the chat already that have had success. Funny enough
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: to Kenny W seventeen thirty two is actually his screen name.
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: You might have been thinking of it. So there's no
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: such thing as a Kenny W that's bad at DFS.
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: Kenny Willman is the infamous Hamhawk who is an absolute
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: absolute crusher. I have an interview with both these Kennies
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: over in the Mastermind Project Dfsmastermind dot com or ship
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: at nation dot com, slash Mastermind, I you want to
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: check it out, but just noting it. Hamhawk, by the way,
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: absolute college crusher, the CF Beast, and now the college
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: Basketball Beast. This guy's got four seats already to the
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: King of the Bracket tournament and just absolutely dominating over
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: in the Shiba Nation discord scene a daily. So congrats
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: to him. But I love this comment from my man.
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: Beatle Bane says, these leverage shows have helped me. The
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: picks and play shows are all the same. Yeah, we
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: would rather try and help you get better at the
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: actual game, and I think that's important to remember. So
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: let's try and do that. Alex. Let's hop in now
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: talk about the former Honda Classic. This is actually where
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: I first I met you for the first time is
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: at the Hunt. Huh the DFS open back in the day.
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: You know, my man Alex got to a playoff and
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: couldn't get the job done. This guy sinks this eighteen footer.
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: But myself and Kenny Kim shout out to another Kenny.
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: We were out on the golf cart half loaded. We
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: were not making any finals in this Alex was, of course,
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: and he gets in a playoff one on one against
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: this guy and unfortunately, Alex, I remember perfect your drive
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: a little wayward left off the tee. You were able
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: to recover it and get it up to the green,
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: but he ended up sinking a put. I think it
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: was like a nineteen footer or something, is what it is.
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: You were right there quite the recovery. But that's right.
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: First thing, I've got a really cool story about this,
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: actually about man. I'm gonna mix up the exact timeline
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: a little bit after. So what happened on that playoff
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: hole is it's a right to left hole. And I
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: don't hit draws. I hate hitting draws. I struggle with draws.
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: I like to play a cut. I actually considered taking
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: driver and hitting a cut onto the adjacent fairway and
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: then hitting from there. Didn't do that. Tried to hit
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: the hit draw with a three wood and pulled it
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: left a little bit after that, I want to say,
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: maybe a year and a half, two and a half
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: years something like that, I was playing in a corn
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: Ferry Tour Monday qualifier and I got into a playoff
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: and one of the playoff holes was a right to
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: left hole, and I had the thought, okay, should I
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: try to hit the draw and I decided not to.
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: I clubbed down, hit my cut, laid up, hit a
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: good shot, tied that hole, and then got through on
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: the next hole. So I don't I can't tell you
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: if I would have ever been able to play a
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: corn Faery Tour event had I not lost the playoff
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: in the way that I did in them has opened
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: so uh pretty uh pretty cool kind of you know,
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: uh full circle kind of thing there. But but yeah,
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: let's uh, let's jump into this thing. It's really cool one.
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: That's an amazing story because it's part of the game
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: that we always talk about, right, like you learn from
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: your you know, winter win or learn not win or lose.
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: It sucks to lose in the moment, of course, but
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: there's something to take away from that. And the only
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: way you lose is completely is if you quit. You
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: can't win. If you quit, like, you can't come back
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: from it.
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: So I love that, and then back then we can
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: we can take that too to.
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: Well, this is what's funny. I was gonna let you
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: finish the thing. He The funniest part of that is
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: is he's right Kenny. Kim is never half loaded. Shut
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: to my boy, Kenny, always miss him, you know, try
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: and stay in touch as much as possible, but don't
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: get to see him nearly as often. But he said
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: he was acting, and I said, uh, he was actually
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: loaded when he got to the course from the night before.
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: We're not going to go into that story. I know
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: the whole details to it, but yeah, I forgot about
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: that he was actually definitely still drunk when he got
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: to the course from the night before at a potential
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: gentleman's club situation.
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: Before we jump into uh this week, I think one
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: one last thing there is we we just talked about,
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: you know, kind of learning, learning the lesson and applying
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: it to my uh my qualifier. There's also a DFS
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: parallel there. What did I do in that playoff? I said, Okay,
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to try to do something that I
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: that I'm less comfortable doing. I'm going to do the
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: thing that I know is my strength. Just like in
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: my DFS play I stick to single one tes, I
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: stick to satellites that fit my strategy. I don't go
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: and try to mm me just because I really like
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: the satellites that week or something like that. So one
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: of the kind of cool things about this conversation is
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: as we get closer to the players, as we get
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: closer to the masters, we'll revisit this and we'll say like, hey, Tambo,
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: I don't have a ticket yet to the players. Do
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: you think that I should invest a little bit more?
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: Do you think I should go do the the one
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: hundred and sixty eight dollars instead of just a seventy
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: dollars just to give myself a better chance. Things love
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: that nature, So it's going to be really fun conversation
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: going on. But yeah, stick to your strengths and let's
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: jump into this week.
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, let's hop into it. I mean, you know a
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: lot about every course, but tell us your course fit
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: wise sort of what you're seeing with this course. I
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: know you guys do a ton of stuff over at
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: FTN related to this. We've got course fit rankings and
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: all these different factors as well that our guy Lee does.
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: So what our man Gannon is boots on the ground
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: as usual, So he's already posting up on X and
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: in the discord on the boots bullets over at Triper Nation.
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: But what sort of your take on this course? That
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: we're going into this week, I think the game theory
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: discussions gonna be bigger and better. But real quick, just
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: what you see with this course this week?
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I do think there's a bit of a contrarian
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: angle at this course, which is I think distance matters
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: more than people realize, and and it's understandable why people
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: would assume that distance just doesn't matter at all here.
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: There are a lot of holes where you're coming down
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: driving distance as a hole is a lot lower on
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: average than on the typical golf course here at PG National,
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: But there are instances where distance really does matter, and
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: particularly like there are a couple scoring holes where distance
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: can really help, and there are a couple t shots
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: where having a little bit extra distance actually widens the fairway,
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: like on the back nine. So there are reasons why
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: the distance signal is higher than usual here, and particularly
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: it's higher than what the field believes it is. And
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: so historically this has been a very good week for
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: me because of this course fit advantage. The further our
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: course fit model is from the industry narrative about the course,
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: I think the larger my edge has been historically, so
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: this has been a pretty good event and now what
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: I will say beyond that is it's also a place
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: where approach play really matters, and that's the part that
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: the field gets right. Approach play you do have to
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: do well here. The last thing about the course fit
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: model this week, this is one of the primary courses
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: where our strokes gain driving accuracy. Approach really helps us
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: over anyone who's using fairways gained or percent of fairways
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: hit as their measure of driving accuracy, because so often,
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: especially at this golf course, accuracy isn't about being able
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: to hit your line. It's about controlling which direction you miss.
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: On the sixth hole, for example, the par four with
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: water left, if you miss the fairway by three yards
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: to the left, that's a full penalty stroke. You just
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: lost an entire stroke with that t shot. If you
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: miss forty yards right and you're in the rough, you
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: probably lost like zero point one five strokes or something
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: like that. So controlling your miss is so important strokes. Again,
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: driving accuracy captures that percentage of fairways hit does not
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: percentage of fairways hit treats every single miss as equal.
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: It's not. And the other point there is, like to
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: that point when somebody gets to the sixth te Guess what,
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: They're not aimed down the middle of the fairway. They're
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: aimed just probably inside the right edge of the fairway.
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: So they can hit a really really good drive and
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: miss a couple of yards into the right rough. They
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: didn't hit an inaccurate TEA shot to miss that fairway.
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: They hit a very accurate TA shot to miss it
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: in the right spot. So again that I think that's
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: another reason why this has been a really good one
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: for me historically.
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that call quite a bit. And the
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: other thing too. You know, someone said it here again
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: and was out there, but he said the course is
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: bouncier and playing firmer and then we'll see what the
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: winds are like over the weekend. But you know, looking
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: at low apax around the green that type of stuff,
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: was there anything I know, you're talking about distance, talking
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: about some of the accuracy, the you know, approach obvious,
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: like you said, everyone's looking at it from that angle particularly,
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: But is there anything with the other stuff when it
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: comes to like around the green or any other alt
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: stats that you would consider not really?
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: So one of the case I understand about this course
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: is the biggest change that they made since Cognizant took
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: over a sponsor is they're now overseeding the golf course.
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: And what this means is that the grass type is
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: different than it used to be. And it used to
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: be bermuda, which is a very difficult, unpredictable grass type.
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: The overseed is really really easy to play on. I
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: can even think about, like the Mini Tour events that
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: I played. I used to go down to the Florida
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: every single winter and Orange County National hosted a lot
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: of the events that I played, and it was overseed,
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: and I do not like chipping, especially off bermuda, and
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: it was always such really for me to get to
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: the overseat at Orange County National and have that really easy,
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: easy lies to make a contact with around the green.
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: And so the effect is over the last couple of
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: years this has been a really, really easy around the
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: green golf course. There's also not a lot of places
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: where you can be short sighted with no chance to
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: get it close. Guys have basically all the control they
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: could possibly want around the greens now. Ethan pat Show
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: did say that the oversea has come in a little
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: bit patchy this year, so maybe it won't be quite
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: as easy, but it's still going to play a lot
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: easier than what we used to really love and expect
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: from from PG National, So that's actually really disappointing to me.
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: I want to see the teeth. I know Billy Horschell
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: had a great quote about the Bermuda and how much
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: it really affected things here, and particularly like the firmer
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: the greens, the more unpredictable. We want the rough because
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: we want those flyers to be bounding through and we
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: want that premium to be on hitting the fairway. Just
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: it kind of isn't anymore. So yeah, it's unfortunate the
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: changes that they made, but there's not really a whole
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: lot else that we have to think about now, just
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: because the changes have made this a much more straightforward
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: test for these players. The last thing I'll say is
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: the firmer conditions that is somewhat typical to PG National,
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: and I think that's another reason why distance is more
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: predictive than people expect here, because being closer to the
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: green gives you more control when you're coming into firm greens.
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: And there's also a very real correlation between distance off
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: the tea speed and your ability to create the spin
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: that you need when you're hitting these approach shots.
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, stat brings up a good point, by the way,
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: to get into the Florida swing. Now, so we got
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: you a little bit more early stuff or at least
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: kicking it off in Florida. So we we'll like that.
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: But Sean asked the good questions, would you recommend to
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: lean more into course fit over recent form for this event?
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: Specifically any thoughts on that one.
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: Yes. The way that we do it over at FTN
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: is we don't have to choose between recent form and
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: course fit. We're using recent form to create our expectation
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: for the player's strokes game profile, and then we're looking
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: at that strokes game profile to measure course fit. So
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: recent form absolutely still matters. But the thing that you
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: want to look for is like, if someone has recently
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: played really well on a course where distance doesn't matter,
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: and then they go to a course where distance matters,
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: you can't factor in their recent form as as much
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: as somebody who now really fits the golf course. And similarly,
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: someone who just played, you know, three straight events where
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: the course really didn't fit their game and now they're
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: getting to a course that does fit their game. If
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: they have recent if they have poor recent form, you
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: should dismiss that a little bit more than usual. So
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: just kind of understand the story for each player. But
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: that's kind of all taken care of for you if
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: you're an f dand subscriber, because it's all factored into
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: our models anyway.
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think the bigger conversation that's coming up
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: anyway right now is going to be about just the
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: way this tournament played out. Again, everyone knows this already,
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: rehash all this stuff exce all the shows do a
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: great job of it. But with those wds that we had,
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: it's kind of created a situation here, right I know,
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: we'll still get it spased out some and everyone's gonna
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: get ownership, and I'm interested to see where you're out
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: on that. But I mean you'll you'll see guys like
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: Lowry Girard, specifically Gerard Nikolai Hogard, who you know is
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: the brother of Rasmus and hundred bucks less it just
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: he's projecting in a way that it looks like his
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: ownership will be boosted compared to Rasmus for example, just
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: based off of everything else. So let's talk about that
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: angle of it and the game theory of this event
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: because optimizers by hand, whenever you look at it, not
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: many people will have to go into the six k
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: range for anything. And even with being spread out up top,
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: it's still very easy to sort of just build a
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: lineup that contains one of, if not multiples of those
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: guys at the very top. So give us your thoughts
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: on that.
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's a really fun game theory week where
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: you really have to I think, not just understand the
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: game theory is important, but it helps to understand why
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: the ownership is going to be so high at the
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: top this week. And we already had a week where
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: I think the guys up top we're going to be
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: higher owned than what we typically see of top because
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: already we had a much lower like upper bound of
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: the pricing, right, so I think ten to seven might
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: have been the highest price or ten to six something
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: like that, and we only had two guys over ten thousand,
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: so already we were going to see a little bit
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: more ownership at the top.
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: But now.
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: Without the withdrawals, and I think there were three guys
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: over nine thousand dollars who are now out of the
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: player pool, all that ownership is going to other expensive guys.
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: It's not like anyone's going to say, oh, now that
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: I can't use Ben Griffin, I'm gonna go use Max McGreevy. Right,
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: They're all pivoting to other expensive guys. And so the
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: effect is the ownership at the top is now a
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: reflection both of how people feel about the players and
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: the fact that everybody is being filtered to this nine
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: thousand dollars range. You're being forced into it. You almost
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: can't build a lineup without it that makes any sort
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: of sense. And so from just a perspective of how
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: likely is this guy to have success given his price,
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: and what is his actual likelihood of success and what's
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: his ownership, everyone's going to be quote unquote over owned
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: at the top. And on the one hand, like you
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: can say, okay, well i'll just shift things. So now
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: somebody who's twenty percent owned is different than someone who's
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: you know, is still relatively contrarying for someone who's thirty
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: five percent owned. While true, we also have to go
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: back to that conversation that we've had a bunch on
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: this show, dating even back to the NFL edition of
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: leverage language is we want separation, we want potential separation.
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: And so you know, a twenty percent Rasmus Houiygar or
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: twenty percent Keith Mitchell. Well, even though they're relatively contrarian
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: compared to their peers, they're not providing as much separation
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: as they would have if they were ten percent compared
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: to twenty percent from from their peers. So it's still
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: important to recognize that and understand that what it means
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: is we're gonna have to find separation else we're gonna
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: have to find separation within the eight k range, at
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: the seven k range, or even the six k range,
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: And that opens things up to even be you know,
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: more contrary this week. And I think it's it's just
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: a very fun puzzle. This week's incredibly different to what
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: we've seen the last couple of weeks.
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I mean this is gonna be one of
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: the biggest questions that comes up, So I'll start there.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, particularly like literally for me, any tournament this week,
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: like whether it's single entry, if you like it, like
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: you don't have just I think people that's another thing
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: we talked about earlier, but not having to be you know,
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: like with with we talked about like the opposite effect
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: of like people saying, Okay, you know, if you're playing
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: only a two hundred man tournament, you don't have to
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: be technically yes, like we get all that, but it
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: doesn't mean you have to stop what you feel is
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: the right approach. It's your lane. That's the whole point
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: of the show. So if you want to get after
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: it that way. It's the same thing here if you're
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: playing a single entry. Just because it's a single entry
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: doesn't mean any more reason to not leave eight hundred
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: bucks or thought like if you're looking at it and say, man,
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: I only have the money left for Keith Mitchell, and
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: I wish I could get to one of the Hoguard brothers, Yeah,
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: I get it. But if you're like, after Keith Mitchell, honestly,
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: Burger's my favorite guy, well then just leave that money.
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: I don't care if it's single do you don't have
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: to drop down and then bring someone else back up.
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: It's like an automatic thought. It's like, if that's what
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: you feel and the rest of your guys are solid
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: and you're having to go off of what you actually want,
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: definitely don't hate that. But honestly, for MM and that's
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: why I'm bringing this side of it now to the
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: show is that's like the whole game this week, Like
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: this is the perfect storm because all these guys that
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: are now going again. I like your point on the separation,
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: agree wholeheartedly with that. We're not necessarily getting the separation
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: you would hope for of like a eighteen percent delta
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: on someone that you would have got had we have
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: had Griffin and Bridgeman and Adam Scott, et cetera, et cetera.
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: But there's nothing that says that like Lowry and Gerard
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: and those are the next best up in the betting
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: markets and the top twenty markets. So all these factors,
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: of course, but nothing made them any bigger or better
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: or stronger than they were outside. I mean once the
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: withdraws happened, yes, but I'm saying like as far as
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: now their ownership getting all stacked on an additional added
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: on top doesn't necessarily mean it's any better than a
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: guy like Bez or somebody down there that could be
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: able to find their way around here. So my point
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: just being Or or Thor or Nearguard Peterson or whoever
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: you're looking at there, all those guys are still viable.
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: So you just because you have ninety nine hundred left,
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: you don't have to play Shane Lowry. You could play
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: neerguard Peterson Leeve eight hundred, or you could find a
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: lineup that plays it that way and you do spend
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: the extra money. So all that to say, like, I
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: think there's a ton of ways to play it this
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: way where you leave money on the table, and that's important,
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: but not just leaving money in your optimizer. Maybe doing
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: some stuff in your optimizer where it's like leaving money
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: plus not including the nine K range, because that way
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: you're leaving money on top of not leaving money with
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: the same dudes everyone else has. So it's like little
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: things like that that you can do. I think there's
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: a ton of different ways you can build for this slate,
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: and that's what makes it interesting to me. I also,
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: actually I'm gonna bring up one more thing. The drive
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: the Green drove off the bridge this week, like it
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: literally went for a thirty K and a balanced failed
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: structure to one hundred kop top and pennies after that.
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: I actually love that for this slate because well, it
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: sucks if you come up second, you don't get it
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: all or whatever. I want a slate like this when
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be that top heavy and I'm gonna be
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: playing to win the top heavy slate. So I'm definitely
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: playing in that this week, and I actually almost prefer it.
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: I wish it was like fifty k and not one
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: hundred and then balanced a little more, but I actually
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: don't mind it if it's gonna be a week like that.
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: I prefer it to be a week like this where
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: I want to embrace the chaos. And I got one
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: more thing, but I'll let you rebuttle some of that
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: first if if you got anything else to add, well.
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I necessarily disagree. It might just
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: be more of a single entry versus MM approach type thing,
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: But I'm very much against the idea of leaving money
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: on the table, and I talked about this a little
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: bit with Pat yesterday. But there are a couple things
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: that I look at when I think of this approach,
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: and the first is there are like, I mean, let's
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: see how many guys are in this field. There are
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: almost one hundred and twenty guys in this field. The
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: likelihood of duping with somebody is really really low. Again,
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: especially in single entries. It's it's obviously a lot higher
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: in the you know, the five dollar drive the green
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: where you're going up against seventy one thousand other people.
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: So I'm not worried about duping, which then means the
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: only reason why I would like that that to me
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: is kind of the only reason to leave money on
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: the table, because otherwise, again I'm going for separation. I
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: can't get separation by playing six chalky guys and just
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: having a unique combination of six chucky guys, because no
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: one else is going to leave that much money on
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: the table. I can only find separation from low owned
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: guys actually doing this, or low owed you know, combinations
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: of you know, two or three players. So I can
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: find that separation by playing better players, and in doing so,
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: I then don't run into the issue where if I
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: leave eight hundred dollars on the table, now I'm asking
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: every single one of the players in my lineup to
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: beat all of the guys who are up to eight
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars above them. So like if you have to
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: for your example of Nierguard Peterson, if you use Nierguard Peterson,
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: where you're leaving eight hundred dollars on the table instead
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: of just asking him to beat Koepka, Berger, Rye and
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: thorpe Jornson, the guys in his price range. Now you're
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: also asking him to beat Mitchell, the Hoyguards, Gerard and Lowry.
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: I don't want to ask that of every single one
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: of the players in my lineup, So in single entry,
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: I don't want to leave that much money on the table.
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: I pretty much never leave more than five hundred.
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: I'd say, yeah, And I think the breakdown there in
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: the communication piece would be like use, let's use even
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: Hoguard Nikolai. To be exact, him and Lowry could end
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: up almost the same ownership this week. They're almost the
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: exact same projection. We have them like a point and
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: a half or something apart. That's five hundred bucks on
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: the table. But it's prefer whoever your guy is your guy,
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: So it's not necessarily leaving anyone who's leaving money in
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: like classic PGA to beat. Being duped is just silly.
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, you're not gonna be duped rarely. Ever. We
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: see the highest dupes on Crazy Chalk weeks from Skyhook.
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: You know, Skyler over on at ETR and puts it
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: out on X. That's like you know, twenty one dupes
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: or something. So you're not doing like that's like showdown
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: NFL showdown things like that, mma that's what you're looking
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: to do it for that reason. In this case, what
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to say is like, just because you have
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: Lowry money left, doesn't mean you have to play Lowry
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: if you prefer Hoguard, because up top they're almost the
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: exact same projection. Down low your seven thousand dollars guy,
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: I've got spots where there's like a seven k guy
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: that has a higher projection than the seventy five hundred
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: dollar guy. So even like a two v two swap
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily get you there or make it difference. So
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: I guess my point was we're not talking about thousands,
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: Like you don't need to go build out a forty
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: seven to five lineup here. But I'm saying if you
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: if you land on Lowry money, you don't just have
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: to assume, Okay, Lowry's my guy because he's the best.
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: Look look at your landmup and decide what you want.
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: But if you really like you know, Nikolai Hogard or
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: Rasmus or Keith Mitchell or thor or whatever you like,
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't be as concerned at that point, and it's
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: not about ownership or dupes as much as like they're
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: almost the same thing in ownership wise and almost projection wise.
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: Just like to your point earlier of the separation piece,
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: I would be focused more on like who do I
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: actually want in this lineup or who do I think
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: is better? Because like you said, I'll play the better golfer, Well,
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: the better golfer to somebody might be thor over Lowry.
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: And it's like, if that means leaving seven hundred and
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: there is no other upgrade they can find, then by
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: all means I'm okay with it. You know. Again, what's right,
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: wrong or indifferent, we'll find out on Sunday evening. But
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: I don't mind leaving a little bit if that's the case.
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: But I think in large field stuff, my my biggest
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: thing is this, I'll go in to the next piece
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: here and then we can get to like the chalk build.
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be pretty straightforward. But my biggest
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: thing is, you know, typically in a field like this,
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: the six K range has a ton of guys, like
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: there's one, two, three, four, five, six seventy nine to
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: level three. There's probably fifteen guys that I would consider
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: right out of the gate, and almost all lineups won't
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: use them, won't even use one because you just don't
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: require it. So that's more of the point where I
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: could say, Okay, what's a seventy five dollar guy for
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: a sixty eight hundred dollars guy? And I like add
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: C more than I like Grio at seventy two, Well
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: that's four hundred bucks. I'm in a six K range
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: instead of staying in a seven K range, and I'm
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: playing a guy that's gonna be probably less owned or
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: similar owned projects very similarly, but it's just what I like.
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: So I'm gonna get away doing that more often. But
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: the biggest point for me at this one why I
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: said it's almost like a perfect storm doesn't always mean
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: it will work out. The sample size is small. Everybody
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: knows I like a good sample. But speaking of Kenny Kimberly,
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: I think it was him that said it. You know,
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: PJ National where chalk goes to die like this is
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: notoriously a very low six to six week and the
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: chalk plays get destroyed because it's one hole, it's one mistake,
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: it's one run through the bear trap, you'll see guys
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: that people are already checking off as a made cut.
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: Go through the bear trap, lose five strokes and bye bye.
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: No longer as that lineup the six of six you
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: thought it was on literally day two, at the last
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: stretch of all they need to get through. So I'm
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: going to be embracing that a lot more. And that's
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: kind of how it'll all shake out for stuff like this,
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: where if I do back to the opposite of you said, so,
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: maybe we are on opposite size this, but like if
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: I land on a again, the optimizer will do it
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: all once I address it this way. But the Lowry
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: dropping to nearguard Peterson, Yeah, I'm giving up eight points
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: in projection. It's not for the ownership. It's not for
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: the door sorry, it's not for the duplication. It's not
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: for the worried about the projection because it's only eight
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: points of a medium projection. It's way more that if
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: that chalk piece goes to die and Lowry's just a
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: T thirty one this week or something, well, my Neerguard
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: Peterson lineups if he finishes top five, are now all
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: in a better place in that particular instance or that spot.
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: So for again the portfolio approach, I'm gonna like that
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: a lot more. I think for single MPs, you gotta
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: make sure of that. And yeah, Sean, these are discords everywhere,
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: not just the ship it nation discord. This is a
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: week man, you ain't gonna like being in there on
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: a Thursday. I can promise you that people are gonna
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: be plus six plus five whatever it is, and all
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: this stuff and complaining as it is. But hopefully that
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: helps clear up some of my thoughts just on the
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: overall process.
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that. We didn't touch on it earlier
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: in our conversation with the with the satellites, but one
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: thing I did want to bring up about them was
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: there were some crazy ownerships last week. So like in
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: my seventy dollars satellite last week, Olberg was thirty five
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: percent something like that. So one of the reasons I
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: think to also play more satellites for anyone watching is
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: you're going to see some really weird stuff that you
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: can take advantage of. And it also then it's almost
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: differentiating your your portfolio in a different way where what
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: you're doing isn't any different, but what the field is
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: doing is so different that you're still giving yourself, you know,
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: more rouse to success that way. So it's just something
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: I wanted to touch on because I was I was
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: just thinking about the fact that outside of the top
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: really don't have much of an idea of who's going
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: to be super popular yet this week.
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think this was that was brought up.
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: Actually Kenny brought that point up right. Well, Yeah, I
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: feel like once you get past the nin k, ownership
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: is a crapshoot, That's the thing. It's it's all going
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: to be, you know, somewhat you know, sort of spread
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: out up there after that. Sure, certain guys may or
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: may not, but I don't think a lot of people
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: know the difference between if it ends up being Alex Smalley,
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: Max McGreevy, or how Tong Lee in that range. I mean,
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: Johnny Kiefer looks like he could get some love. I
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: could definitely see that one. But after that, you could
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: see a bunch of the guys in the seven K
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: range be seven to ten percent, and it's completely spread
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: out because it's look, I'm congregated up top, but then
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: I'm spreading out at the bottom. I could see that
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: being a way away. Things happen no matter how you
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: shake it out. Optimizers, handbuilds, whatever. That's kind of how
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: I see the value plays spreading out of the bottom.
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: Last week, we were talking about how it'd be cool
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: to have ownership that was like, hey, this guy's twenty
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: percent plus minus five percent for every guy. This would
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: be a week where everyone's a little bit wider. And
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: remember last week, like, one of the reasons why I said, wait,
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: I don't do that is because I think it's more
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: important to understand the story of the ownership. Scotty is
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: plus minus ten percent, but I don't want the guys
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: below him to just be also plus minus ten percent,
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: because the important thing to realize is the higher Scotty is,
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: the less Rory's gonna be, the less time he's gonna be.
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: And so it's that connection that's more important, and the
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: interconnectedness of ownership. It's more important, not just understanding that
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: everyone has a specific spread. This week, it's less about
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: a connection and it's more just about we have a
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: very differ We're gonna have a very difficult time predicting
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: exactly where personal preferences are, especially because just listen to
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: the conversation that we've had today so far just about
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: like all the different ways that we are gonna look
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: to be different, knowing how much ownership is going to
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: the top, knowing that you can't win this week by
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: having the right combination of guys up top, because there
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: are gonna be plenty of people who end up with
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: the right combinations of guys at top. So everyone's already
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: now trying to look for that hidden low owned guy,
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: the sneaky play in the eight K range of the
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: seven K range, and that means that like people aren't
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: just playing the guys who are projected best in that range.
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: So it's gonna be really, really tough to project ownership
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: this week. And I'm not looking forward to to diving
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: in tonight to finalize things at all, because this is
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: gonna be a tough one to do for sure.
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think a couple of things, just like you know,
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: the main thing for the you'll get into the chalk
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: build is you know Girard some form of like Girard
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: Nikolay or Lowry Gerard nicola like two of those three.
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: If not people can find it with all three, I
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: think Thor is just behind them or somewhere close to them.
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: So it's like those four up top are getting blended
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: in and then after that, like I said, well you'll
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: see a lot more like you know, randomness. I think
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: Johnny Keefer could show up. I think Michael Brennan could
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: show up. I think some of those guys. But honestly,
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: it's really tough to say who's gonna get the full
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: steam till kind of tonight. When you get a feel
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: for everything shakes out and the shows and the updates
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: and all that stuff, you'll start to see where that's going.
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: One of the things. And we'll save this topic outside
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: of satellites for another conversation a different week, but contest
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: sims are also a good Like so many people are like, oh,
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: I don't want to pay extra for these things. Well,
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: first of all, I'm not selling you on this. I
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: don't care. It's up to you do your own thing.
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: You know a lot of people are using them a lot, aren't.
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: You don't need them, and I think it matters how
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: much you play and all those different factors matter. But
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: I'll note the reason they're helpful is not just building
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: your line ups accordingly. If you have accurate ownership and
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: can set up those fields appropriately or properly if you will,
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: more accurately I should say, but those also help guide it.
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: And I think you've talked about this in the past.
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: Won't go do it heavily here, but I think in
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: the sense of, if you see the contest sims are
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: really driving up, let's use Michael Brennan as a guy,
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: like Michael Brennan ends up being the dude and Johnny
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: Keefer ends up being the dude. If the contest sims
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: are pushing those guys up and the projections are already
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: there on them, even if it's only by a hair,
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: that's gonna mean they're just going to start showing up more.
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: And it relates to single entry versus M and me
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: as well. But just noting it, I think that's important
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: to remember as well, and why it's so important to
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: kind of get a feel for what people are actually doing.
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: That's one thing I'll say about the Monday Tuesday shows
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: that can't do what a Wednesday show can do, is
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: like we already have at least some general sense an
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: idea of how these optimizers and things are starting with
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: the fun with closer to final updates are spitting things
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: out and that's what drives steam and moonwalking and the
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: moonwalking side of it, you know, to your point also
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: comes with the ranges and the moves up top, like
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: on the Scotty weeks. Like you said, it's not just
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: Scotty goes to these guys, it's this matters for this.
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: It's all subjective to like what's happening, it's all connected
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: story to what's happening here goes to there. So I
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: do think that's important to remember for a week like
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: this as well.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: Let me let me run off a list of names
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: here for you that I think are going to be popular,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: and tell me if you think I'm either missing anybody
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: or I said, somebody that you don't expect to be popular.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: So just eight, eight and seventy k range here, Thompson, Smally, McGreevy,
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: how Tong, Meisner, Kirk, borderline, than Keefer, hoey Vellamacky.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's tough. I don't think they all can be.
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: But I also could see like all of them coming
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: in twelve to eighteen percent, and I'm putting a bigger
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: range on it. But it's like that's kind of the point.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: Are any of those guys getting to twenty. I actually
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: don't think.
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: The only heart that I am confident we'll get to
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: twenty is McGreevy.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think we've got them at seventeen from
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: our initials. So it's like it definitely is possible with
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: McGreevy that that's a prime example. Though again like McGreevy
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: can crush me this week, but like I would, I'll
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: take my boy mac Meisner, I'll take Smally, I'll take Zal,
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: I'll take I'll think Thorbjorn, I'll take a bunch of guys.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: And it's not about the plays. I'm saying. If I
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: had to make cuts, I'll have a portfolio. I could
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: end up with McGreevy at sixteen percent, which is underweight
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: to the field, but it's enough because I have a portfolio.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: But McGreevy will not be in lineups with all the
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: chalk up top and the other guys that were already
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: thinking could get steamed down below because those lineups just
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: aren't gonna play well for a large field tournament with
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: one hundred k up top. If I have McGreevy, it
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: might be with Nierguard Peterson and Aaron Rye, And like
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: randomness of like a guys that could be under ten
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: percent above him, and then other guys under ten percent
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: down low, people like, oh, I thought you weren't playing
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: that Donkey Chock McGreevy. My struggle with single entry versus
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: emine and trying to explain this to people is I
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: am literally shut out and rip to our guy DJ
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: and the big guy in the sky. I always said this,
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: but somehow people have forgotten. One of his most famous
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: lines was, we don't play Donkey Chock wait for it
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: except when we do, And people somehow forgot that part
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: of it. All this Donkey Chock loser got there, Donkey
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: Chuck gets every week, almost every single week, Donkey Chock
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: gets there. Play it accordingly. It's not who you play,
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: it's how you play them. We don't play it except
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: when we do. And the joke was we do every week.
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: It's just where do we play it and how? You
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: know what I mean? It's not always just fading to
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: fade like people see. And then the other thing is
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: when people do that, go another Tambo's tangent here. But
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: people fade a guy like, oh, fading Donkey Chock in
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: one place, let me fade them in two let me
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: fade them in three, let me fade them in four.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: Now your lineup sucks. You've got a line up that's
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: like you know again, doesn't mean you can't. You don't
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: don't you don't have to play it. But I'm saying
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: even when the like, I know you do this all
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: the time in single and I think last week you
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: did it. You technically had no donkey chock cause all
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: your guys I think were seven to nine percent, but
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: you had the next best version, like you were saying, like, Okay,
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: I didn't quite get to any donkey chock because I
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: don't need it. But you didn't. You didn't have all
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: one percent on guys in your main lineup. And I
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: know this because you post your you know, afterlock, you'll
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: post it in discord and show people what's up. My
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: point being, you didn't. You played the guys that a
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: lot of people talked about and didn't fully get in
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: on board with. You played a lot of guys that
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: were nine to ten percent range instead of one percent.
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: You don't need to play all one percenters. You don't
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: need to play all donkey chock. It's a good balance
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: and sometimes it works out in your favor that way.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, what I went in on last week was the
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: idea that I recognized, and I felt a little bit
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: silly afterwards because I spent you know, the Tuesday and
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: Wednesday shows talking about how the soft conditions were going
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: to increase the effect of driving distance and lower the
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: effect of driving accuracy. But then I saw just people
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: going like all in on that narrative, and I said, Okay, well,
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: what if I just played the really good players who
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: are accurate and are going to be really low owned,
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: And so I was. I nailed the ownership. I got
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: Russell Henley at like five percent, but my guys then
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: also sucked, so I didn't get paid off for it
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: at all. Also, by the way, I really feel like
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: we've got one and done ownership, like really nailed down.
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: I played three different guys last week. They were one percent,
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: one percent, and three percent. Did they play well, No,
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: they did not. But I feel very good now about
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: my one and done ownership process. So that that's also
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: something you can check out over in my discord. Last
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: thing I'll say here is we just had this conversation about, Okay,
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: sometimes we do play donkey chalk, Is there chalk that
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: you are more likely to play than others in the
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: range that we just talked through.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: Well, I guess in the range that we just talked through,
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: probably not as much. Again, and it's you know, we're
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: always on record for the stuff, so people a trying
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: to like, again, we play what we say. I promise
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: you when you go over to ship and heyes, you
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: see what I'm in on my main courts and the
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: two hundred dollars single lend You're like, you all to
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: know what I'm playing. It'll be there. But my point
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: would be more And the way you ask the question
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: I have to answer it, probably not. But what I
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: was going to say, if you just left it open
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: ended instead of saying, in the range that we just
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: talked about, I will definitely be more in on the
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: donkey chok at the top because of your point, you're
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: not fully getting the separation that you're expecting. And then
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: for the most part, if you go pull up, you know,
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: win equity and top twenty and top ten odds and
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: things like that, those just are the better golfers where
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: it's probably some of those guys getting involved. And because
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: the bottom is so spread out, like we said, like
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: maybe the McGreevy guy. But even if you go below set,
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: just to seventy nine hundred and below, there's a chance
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: that three or less golfers are in double digits seventy
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: nine hundred and below this week, just the way it
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: sets up, because you're already gonna have two to three
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: nine K guys, you can easily fit an eight K
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: guy or two, so like you're only gonna get two
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: to three seven K guys re lineup, and then those
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: are gonna get spread out. So if I do play
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: even a lowry and sorry, let's say I probably wouldn't
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: do this, but let's say a Gerard and a Nikolai
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: Hoguard in a spot, Well, I can do that because
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: there's gonna be four guys below five percent that easily
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: fit it down below. And yeah, I got some donkey
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: chalk from the top. But it's based on the fact
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: that it's not necessarily like honestly just noting this. We'll
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: see how the week shakes out by tonight. But Rasmus
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: could end up getting even more steam if you right
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: now you're only seeing kind of like a ten percent
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: delta maybe between him and his brother. Everyone's on nikola
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: We get it. But it's not like it's twenty eight
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: to eight. It's like twenty eight to eighteen. You could
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: see that be twenty five to twenty one by tomorrow.
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: Maybe not. And I'm not trying to predict it here.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: Alex is good for that. Good for him, you know,
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: he gets to go do that. Our team over Intribernation
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: does that. But I'm noting it to make the point
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: of you're not really getting like so many people are like, oh,
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the other brother, and if nobody wants him,
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: lots of people start doing that, And the answer was
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: just to play the guy you actually wanted. If you
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: really like Nikola more than Rasmus, you can probably just
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: play Nicolay and get away with it in other ways
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: and find separation elsewhere. I know you can, So I'm
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: just noting it from that perspective, kind of play what
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: you like. I don't think the ownership delta is gonna
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: be enough to make that like the angle you should
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: should attack from.
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm almost certainly gonna do that exact thing up top,
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: where Nikola is projected so much higher than anybody else
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: for us that I'll be playing Nikolay and then I'll
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 2: just find my separation elsewhere. Of the of the range
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: that we talk through, I do think there's some chalk
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: that I'm more interested than others. McGreevey's definitely not that
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 2: guy for me, But Howtong, Howei and Kiefer especially, I
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: think are guys that I am interested in, and also
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: a little bit interested in Meisner. But what I will
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: say is there's also a chance that I don't play
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: any of those guys, not because I don't think they're
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: good chalk, but because there are so many really good
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: GPP scores this week, just because there are a lot
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: of guys in this field, so you're gonna be able
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: to find some that are that are under own and
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: particularly some like in the seven K range that I'm
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: very confident people are not going to play like Kevin
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: Roy or Doug gimm who look pretty good for us.
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: So I don't know who I'm gonna end up on,
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: but I don't think I'll be fading anyone other than
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: McGreevy in this range simply because of the ownership. It's
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: just a matter of do I end up liking others more?
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that call. Anything else you want to
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: talk about when it comes to sort of leveraging it
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: or going against it. I know, again, people always looking
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: for the picks in the plays we talked about a
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: million times. Its kind of the opposite of our approach.
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: We want to sort of give you thoughts, theories, concepts,
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: ways that you can approach a slate as a whole.
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: I think that was kind of a good breakdown. But
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: is there anything else we missed on or anything else
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: you think we should touch on before we move on?
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: I think we will keep the one and Done segment
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: just for something to go through because I want to
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: get your take on that, and I think everybody likes
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: that we have the ship in Nation one and done.
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: Pat's got his. You know, people are in the Rick
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: run Good Splash one. There's a lot of conversation around that.
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: But is there anything else you want to talk about
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: when it comes to the DFS slate over on this
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: fur this event?
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 2: No, I think we're ready for the one and done
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: and we better still talk about one and done. You
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: and I have the joint entry now.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: Oh we are, yeah? Yeah, I mean we'd always still
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: make our picks. I just mean this from another perspective.
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: Do you have a quick bet. I know, like I said,
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: as far as like the full betting breakdown, you're gonna
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: have a lot more of that over on the show
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: with Pat. But do you have a bet bet for
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: the week that you could give the people?
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the only one that I've played so far, I
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: might add, but the only one I've played so far
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: is Nikolai Hoygard thirty to one in the one fifth
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: each way for three spots over at bet three six five.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: I believe the best available for him elsewhere is like
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: twenty to one, So just a phenomenal number using this
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: specific each way, and we've got him an eight point
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: eight percent to win, so significantly higher than his implied
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: probability at that thirty to one. And yeah, I mean,
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: he's so The cool thing about this bet for me
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: is I've sort of been higher on Nikolai than his
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: projections since like the Scottish last year, and he has
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: continued to play really well and really well, and I've
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: continued to be higher on him than our model, and
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: now the model has kind of caught up to it,
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: and so now it's like every you know, piece of
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: confidence that I've had in Nikolai now seems to be
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: validated in the numbers, and maybe that means that now
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: it's caught up to him and it's actually over projecting
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: him now because of how well he's played. Maybe, but
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: at the very least, I think it shows that this
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: guy's a really, really complete golfer. Like when you think
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: of Nikolai Hoygard, when you think of both Hoyguards, really
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 2: you think of a bit of a wild card, a
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: volatile player who can hit the ball far and make
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: some putts, but he's also gonna be, you know, a
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: little bit bad around the green and maybe his irons,
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: he's gonna have some bad iron days. Nikolai isn't really
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: that anymore. He's become a very consistently good player. His
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: driving accuracy is really strong, his approach play is barely
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: behind Lowry and Gerard in our estimates now, So he's
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: just become an excellent player, and he's a much better
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 2: putter than those two guys. So he's actually our top
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: projected player by a pretty margin, and the best course
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: fit by a pretty wide margin. So I love Nikolai
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: this week, And because I don't usually bet on someone
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: this high up on the board, I almost feel like
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: I'm less inclined to bet longer shots this week.
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: I like that. That's why you told me to put
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: them on the cover. Right we got we got the
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: most popular guy that people know is Lowry. You put
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: Ryan Girard on a cover. It might be like that
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: Jeopardy question I saw this week where nobody knew who
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: SGA was, even though he's the MVP and you know,
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: winning everything and championship winner and all that stuff, they
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: had no idea who he was on Jeopardy, And that
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: would be where the Ryan Girard card gets pulled when
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: it comes to to Jeopardy. I think. But a lot
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: of people know Shane Lowry, so we put him on
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: there as well. But Nikola Hogard thirty, like you said,
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: getting it at the top three. Each way that you
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: guys broke down on I think it was last week's
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: show that you went through with Pat. So let's go
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: to one and done. You said you sort of figured
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: out ownership talk to the people. I mean, it's one
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: thing I always want to I kind of, you know,
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: obviously have a good sense on this stuff, and I'm
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: going to sort of work through it. I'm still horrible
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: at one and done, but I certainly understand the metrics
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: and the game that we're playing. Our guy Sheets does
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: a really good jobing it down as well for members
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: over at Triper Nation. But how do you factor in
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: the ownership versus just like there's only so many weeks,
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: I can only play the top golfers, et cetera, et cetera,
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: saving guys, how are you using the ownership to your advantage?
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: And earlier in the season, I think is where people
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: start to think through it a little bit less, because
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: later on in the season they understand like, yeah, playing
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: the most popular is not going to get me a
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: catchup spot here. I have to get unique. But how
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: are you using it to your advantage early in the
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: season would be the way I'd put the question.
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: It's it's definitely easier to predict the ownership in the
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: signature events and major championship ships because then you don't
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: have to factor in, well, who do people want to save?
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: So that part makes it a little bit tougher. And
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 2: then the other thing is there isn't a dominant course
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: fit narrative this week the way Bombers were the dominant
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: course fit narrative last week, So in both instances, it's
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: going to be a little bit tougher to predict the
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 2: ownership this week, but what I will say is I
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: think it's it's very unlikely that Nickel will be higher
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: owned than Lowry, And if I had to guess, it
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 2: would go Lowry first by a pretty wide margin, then
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: Gerard and Nikolay kind of in a second tier, and
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: then maybe Thorpejornton just a little bit behind them in ownership.
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: And to me, that's just a mistake. Nikola should be
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: the highest owned guy. So I'm pretty sad. I'm just
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: using Nikolay and my personal entries, and if you're not
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: opposed to Nickolay, then I think that's who who we'd
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: have for our joint entry as well.
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: Definitely okay with it. And I also want to add
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: to that because I mean, you kind of hit it
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: on when you were talking in the betting area. You
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: kind of just hit on it again there. But I
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: just want to clarify a piece and maybe I'm wrong,
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: but just to note it for people is like when
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: we talked, who's the guy that we used last week,
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to remember the guy Makawa. No, No, I
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: know who we used. I'm saying like there was somebody
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: in the field last week that we said we might
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: not use them now because they'll probably get a tournament
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: later in the year. Well, there'll be I think it
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: was Jake Napp. Okay, actually Kick Napp was brought up.
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: Maybe it was last week, but or recently when we
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: talked about Jake Knapp and said we won't use him here,
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: not because he's gonna be too popular or anything like that.
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: We said, but like, using him now is almost unnecessary
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: when we will get an event later in the season
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: where he's gonna be like a top three favorite to
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: win the event and we can use him met and
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: we don't need to waste him right now. I would argue,
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: or at least say, from my perspective, this is the
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: spot for Nikolai. There is not gonna be you know,
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: if you're looking for the nap version of that, it's
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: this week for Nikolai. Will it come with a little
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: bit of ownership, probably yeah, But at the end of
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: the day, this is the spot to use him. And
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: like someone said, it could be too early to worry
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: about that type of stuff. Anyway, If you're gonna use
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: Nikolai and you want him in a field where you
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: think he can win, and you want to get him
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: at like a reasonable sort of ownership but not too crazy.
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: There might not be a better catch up spot. Now,
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: he'll be a guy later on that nobody's using in
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: a signature event or something that he's into, or a
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: bigger event where that you might need him to play catchup.
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: So if you don't use him this week, that would
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: be your next angle of attack with a golfer as
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: good as him. But that kind of goes with what
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: you said with him here this week, So I like
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: that call quite a bit. Interested in that as well.
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the example you're alluding to is was
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: a Nap at the WM Phoenix Open, where we were saying, Okay,
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: it's a small payout and he is one of the
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: better players, but he also still has to go beat
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: Scotty in a couple other elites, and he's gonna play
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: other events this year where the payouts the same, the
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: price pools the same, and he doesn't have to beat
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: the elite players. And to your point, this is that week.
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: This is the week where NAP's not in the field,
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: but for Nikolai, for Mitchell, for Rasmus, even for Lowry
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: and Gerard like, those are the best players that they
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: have to beat. There is no Scotty in this field.
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: There's no Xander or Rory in this field. It's just
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: these guys, and that means their win equity is as
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: high as you're gonna get in this week, in any week.
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: And the other point there is like, even if you
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: turn it into an expected value of money earned, I
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: think it might be higher this week for a lot
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: of these guys than in most signature events because even
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: though the field is because even though the purse is
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: so much lower, the win equity, the top five equity,
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: the top ten equity is so so so much higher
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 2: for these guys this week than in any signature event.
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: So I think we want to just go with the
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: guy that we think is the best play, and for me,
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: that's Nikolay. Yeah.
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: I love that you add that piece because for those
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: that followed along during the NFL Survivor stuff, totally different sport,
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: this is much more high variance. I get it, Like
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: those lines in Vegas are extremely sharp for a reason.
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: But the way our guy Sheets was using the calculators
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: is just to get people that were inside and if
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: you weren't you'll still get it, I'm guessing. But like
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: he was showing that look even this week when the Bills,
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: let's use a team that was a popular team one week,
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: like they were gonna be twenty five percent owned, we
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: were espuying ownership percentage mattered. The ev on them that
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: week was still positive. So it's like, I'm, yeah, I'm
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: using them, but I'm using them because it's still a
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: good spot based off of that. Anything you're worried about
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: with Lowry or Gerard or Hoguard, whoever their ownership might be,
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: is probably still built in there in the fact that
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: the field strength, they're upside for even a top ten,
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: top five on this type of prize pool with the
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: ability to still go and win it, and even if
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: they ended up somehow being twenty percent owned, it's typically
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: not the case in one and Dun's to be honest
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: for most for the most part, because it gets spread
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: out based off of that. But let's say they're fifteen
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: to twenty percent, that's eighty percent of the field that's
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: not picking up a win from that golfer, and you
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: still have the other guys that you didn't play available,
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: So it's like there's a ton of ways you can
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: look at it, but I think that's a good way
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: to put it for this week. So I like that
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: quite a bit. All right, anything else we missed? If not,
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: what is your lane gonna be? I'm thinking about some
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: stuff here. I'm gonna apply my to mme like I
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: said I would for moving Forward. I definitely have a
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: thought I could apply it to single entry as well.
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: But do you have your lane ready to go for
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: this week?
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: I guess so. It's a hard one to figure out
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: the lane. I've used this before, but I'm gonna use
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: it again. My lane is going to be leaning into
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: our Birdy rate over expectation data, and I will post
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 2: the Birdie rate over expectation data in my discord. Again.
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: I don't know how long I'm gonna be able to
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: put it in my discord, because once it's an official
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: FTN thing, then it's just an FTN thing. But for
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: now it's still, you know, just my beta testing of it.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: But I believe in it. And one of the things
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: that I found in doing the research for this stuff
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 2: is that the Bertie radover expectation data is more predictive
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: on easy courses than it is on hard courses, and
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: this with the overseed, I do expect to once again
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 2: be an easy course. So it's it's going to be
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 2: a week where it's, you know, to Kenny's point, this
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: is the course where chalk goes to die. So we
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 2: know scoring variants is higher than usual here. We also
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: know that it's a week where it's going to be
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: attle bit harder to nail down ownership. The thing that's
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: not hard to nail down is who's going to score
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: really well in DraftKings when they play well, And that's
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: what the Bertie raid Over expectation data says. So Nickel's
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: way up there. Actually, both Hoyguards, Mitchell thorpe jornsen Koepka,
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: how Tong Kiefer. Those are just some of the names
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: that immediately really stand out to me as both good
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 2: plays from a GPP score perspective, but also I know
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: that they're going to be really solid scorers when they
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: play well.
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that. Mine is a you know, going
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: to be an mm stuff. Anbody who's followed me for
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: a long time has heard me talk about this in
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: the past. But I'm definitely gonna build in sets this week,
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to play some lineups that are pm
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: AM only and it has nothing to do with weather.
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, it kind of does, but it doesn't. It's
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: not like people like, what do you mean, I don't
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: see anything. I'm not. It's not that we're not playing
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: that game again, I don't care. What I want to
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: note is one I've talked about this a ton in
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 1: the past. I can tell you some cases. Every golfer
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: is different, but PM AM, when you get out there
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: in the afternoon on Thursday, get through it and then
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: grind out the morning and just post your best number,
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: it's sometimes better than going through the bear trap in
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: the afternoon and being like, damn, I only can lose
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: one stroke going through this bear trap now, and it's
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: the winds up a little bit, and this that and
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: the other. Whatever the case is. So it's that, but
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: it's really not that. So I just brought that to
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: get it out of the way. I will note this though,
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: Shane Lowry, Nikolai Hogard, who else did I have here?
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: Davis Thompson, Max McGreevy, Johnny Keith, for just to name
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: some five, that's like five of the highest owned plays
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: on this slate, and they're all AM PM so just
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: by doing this, I will have a natural different lineup.
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: I'm already not on five of the top highest owned guys,
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: so it plays into all the theories round shock goes
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: to die, this, that and the other. So I can
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: build some really nice lineups that are pm AM only
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: nothing to do with the weather, all to do with
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: the game theory and the idea of the tournament that
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: that's at hand, all these different factors where some of
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: those five or six is four or sixes, et cetera,
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: if they bust up or any of those jock plays
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: don't come through, I can have the opposite side of
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: that and could lead to more six and sixes, which
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: in this tournament would be very valuable. And you know,
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: if anything from the past comes true.
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: I think an important point here is you don't have
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 2: to see anything in the weather ye to make this
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: a viable bet. Where you're now leaving yourself like you're
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: leaving the door open for the possibility that maybe the
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 2: wind does pick up in one of the afternoons, or
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: maybe the you know, the greens just get a little
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 2: bit firmer and more unplayable in one of the afternoons,
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 2: and you luck into a situation where there is like
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: a half stroke to a full stroke scoring advantage in
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: your favor. So yeah, I always kind of am in
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: favor of this kind of this move in PGA, even
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 2: though so as we look at the weather this week,
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 2: like it seems pretty symmetrical, So both afternoons look a
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: little bit windier than the mornings. Yeah, it doesn't seem
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: like there's going to be an advantage, but there might
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 2: be an advantage, and if there is, you're gonna have
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 2: the opportunity to lock into just a really well correlated event.
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's more of that exactly. Like that's where people
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: sort of miss that. And I don't mind, you know,
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: just tossing it out there and let people think what
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: they will with it. But that's that's how I look
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: at it. It's worked in my favor many times. It's
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: just it's a natural way to move off some of
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: the chalk, and it's not I actually don't think there's
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: gonna be any weather advantage from what I can tell.
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: It's that's not why I'm doing it. I'm noticing something
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: on the board. I'm tying it together with game theory
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: and this tournament from experience and back end stuff, So
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: it's like all works together in my favor. It's you know,
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: you can dedicate one, twenty fifty, whatever number you want
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: put your whole single entron. It's up to you. But
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: it's definitely a way that you can play to naturally
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: get different still find the best of the best. This
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: would almost work out to what I mentioned with your
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: single entry earlier. It could work out. I could end
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: up with everybody seven to twelve percent, and I've just
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: got the best versions of the guys within those ranges
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: that not everybody could get to because they are focused
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: on whoever the quote unquote best play is in that range,
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: which leads to them having the twenty percenters and the
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: twenty five percenters in those spots and whoever they have
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: down low. I would just have a nice balanced line
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: up of you know, maybe everyone's sort of that ten
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: to fifteen or or eight to sixteen percent range and
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: call to day. And I'm pretty happy with that. So
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: good with this, man. I hope everybody enjoyed it. Let
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: us know in the comments still for sure, anything you
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: thought was stop provoking if you like this, If anything
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: else he wants to focus on more. Any feedback is good. Feedback,
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: but we do want this to be a unique show
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: to the industry, something that you can use to help
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: you play dfs and get better and hopefully win some satellites,
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: boost those bankrolls, win some tournaments. Alex, I'll let you
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: close out where the people can find you everything else
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: you've got going on, and then we'll get out of here.
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, find me at alex Blika one on Twitter. If
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 2: you want to sign up for the discord, you can
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: use promo code leverage for ten percent off forever. If
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 2: you're interested in some of the data over at FT
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: and Fantasy, use promo code blick for ten percent off there.
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: And yeah, let's let's go win some tickets this week.
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm excited. I'm gonna be in those for sure.
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: If you guys want to join us over at ship
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: a Nation, you can get a couple of different deals.
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: I'll just pull it up quick. But just going to
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: join the nation, click on single Sport. You'll see all
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: of our golf packages here. We have a partnership with
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: Rick run good and Sabersim, so as little as forty
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: five a month, including all of ship Nation, Rick run Goods,
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: tools and full offering over on his site, including the
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: Sabersim Optimizer, you can build up to one hundred and
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: fifty lineups twenty nine a month if you pay. The
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: annual price is the lower price with just Sabersim no
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: Rick run Good, or as low as twenty five a
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: month if you want to get in on just the
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 1: PGA package only, so find me on x at Toteg
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: and tambo hit me up in the discord at ship
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: Nation if you're a member. That's gonna do it for
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: this week guys, for Alex and for myself Toteg and
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: Tambo let ship it