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Trump's claims of talks are false as Iran-Oman talks continue · INSIGHT TODAY

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  Speaker 1: The president continues to say that the Strait of Hormuz
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  Speaker 1: could reopen soon, but just in the Iranian deputy Foreign
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  Speaker 1: Minister has denied that Iran is currently in talks with
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  Speaker 1: the US over the strait. He described discussions with Oman
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  Speaker 1: as strictly bilateral. We're joined now by Mark Esper, former
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  Speaker 1: Defense Secretary under President Trump. He serves as a board
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  Speaker 1: member and partner at Red Cell Venture Capital. I wonder
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  Speaker 1: what you think of that secretary, what we're hearing from
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  Speaker 1: the deputy minister here on his assessment of these talks,
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  Speaker 1: and how are you reading that? And does it matter?
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  Speaker 2: It does matter.
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  Speaker 3: We've heard a lot of conflicting statements coming out of
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  Speaker 3: various capitals on this front. We do know that the Iranians,
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  Speaker 3: at least the Foreign Ministry, is talking to the Omanis
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  Speaker 3: about how the strait will be administered. They want to
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  Speaker 3: create a northern route that is adjacent or within Iranian
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  Speaker 3: territory of waters, in a southern route that's in Omani waters.
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  Speaker 2: And frankly, this is consistent with the MoU.
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  Speaker 3: In fac Zero point five of the MoU says that
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  Speaker 3: Iran and Oman and Iran will negotiate the future administration
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  Speaker 3: of the Strait, which to me means we're giving Iran
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  Speaker 3: at least some control of the Strait, which is one
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  Speaker 3: of the issues I have with the MoU. But nonetheless,
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  Speaker 3: it seems like they are talking pursuant to that that
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  Speaker 3: the IRGC is not necessarily involved, and that they consistently
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  Speaker 3: are claiming that there are no direct talks between the
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  Speaker 3: United States and Iran. So look, if an agreement comes
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  Speaker 3: out between Iran and Oman, we're gonna have to see
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  Speaker 3: what's in it and whether we can live with it
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  Speaker 3: or not. It seems to me that there's not a
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  Speaker 3: place where we can live with it, because we do
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  Speaker 3: not believe that those countries, let alone Iran alone, should
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  Speaker 3: have control over the Straight Before moves.
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  Speaker 1: This depletion of US defensive capabilities and long range weapons,
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  Speaker 1: how does that affect us leverage in any negotiations.
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  Speaker 2: Well, it affects.
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  Speaker 3: It affects our position with regard to how much we
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  Speaker 3: want to risk in a return of combat operations.
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  Speaker 2: Of course, you know, well now was the role you have.
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  Speaker 3: To constantly balance the international demands, global risks, you know,
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  Speaker 3: the things that you're very most concerned of. And for me,
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  Speaker 3: I always keep a watchful eye on China, and in
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  Speaker 3: the war with China, we would need FAD missile launch
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  Speaker 3: bad missiles, we would need pack three missile interceptors, we
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  Speaker 3: would need PRISM all those missiles that, to one degree
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  Speaker 3: or another, the Center for Strategic and International Studies reported
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  Speaker 3: were in the stockpiles were low, So I'd be very
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  Speaker 3: conscious of that, and I might be reluctant to employ
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  Speaker 3: them in certain scenarios if I knew that it would
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  Speaker 3: affect my global supply.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, if you're looking at the deterrent effect of the
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  Speaker 1: US military and all of those capabilities being part of that,
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  Speaker 1: and right now it seems the best case scenario is
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  Speaker 1: a negotiation to get out of this with reopening the Strait,
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  Speaker 1: which is where the US was before this war, and
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  Speaker 1: looking at an incredible depletion of munitions, How do you
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  Speaker 1: chalk this up to anything other than a big loss,
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  Speaker 1: putting the US in a really tough spot should they
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  Speaker 1: have to confront another enemy or challenge going forward.
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  Speaker 3: Look, deterrence is not just military capability. It's your soft
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  Speaker 3: power capabilities, and in this case, it's also your economic
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  Speaker 3: strength and might specifically here, it's your munition stockpiles. The
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  Speaker 3: enemy wants to have a sense of how long you
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  Speaker 3: could sustain it fight and with what type of weapons.
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  Speaker 3: And importantly, your economic and industrial base and defense industrial
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  Speaker 3: base is something that we vascin needs improved in terms
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  Speaker 3: of it's certainly a surge capacity. We are not where
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  Speaker 3: we need to be. And frankly, it was our economy
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  Speaker 3: that really won World War Two when you go back
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  Speaker 3: and look at history. So look, I think all those
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  Speaker 3: are factors when you think about the terrence in this scenario.
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  Speaker 2: I've argued the last few weeks.
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  Speaker 3: Look, I think the strategy needs to pivot here toward
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  Speaker 3: an economic blockade complete of all of Iran, just into
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  Speaker 3: the Strait but all see air ground routes, strangle them,
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  Speaker 3: globalize the conflicts, we have allies, partners, everybody else joining in,
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  Speaker 3: and then slowly close the news on them. They are
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  Speaker 3: facing the highest inflation they've ever had in decades.
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  Speaker 2: The economy is weakest it's been in decades.
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  Speaker 3: To me, that's where the pressure point is right now
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  Speaker 3: there and the IRGC, and that's where I would lean
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  Speaker 3: more toward rather than trying to re engage in a
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  Speaker 3: military assault from the air.
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  Speaker 2: In the pursuing weeks, do.
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  Speaker 1: You have confidence in the diplomacy that you've seen so far,
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  Speaker 1: if that's an indication of what you're going to see
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  Speaker 1: going forward to solve that issue.
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  Speaker 3: Again, I would globalize the diplomacy as much as I could.
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  Speaker 2: Lease a list.
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  Speaker 3: Allied partners, allied and partners in this and look, I
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  Speaker 3: think any efforts we can at diplomacy are worth it
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  Speaker 3: because this is a conflict that's now become strategic in nature.
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  Speaker 3: We're not talking about the nuclear program as much anymore,
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  Speaker 3: which is where we begin. We're talking about control of
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  Speaker 3: the straight h Hord moves, and I think the Iranians
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  Speaker 3: at this point think they're winning the fight, and so
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  Speaker 3: to me, we should never not pursue diplomacy. In fact,
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  Speaker 3: we should double down on it and list again more
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  Speaker 3: of our partners and allies in that purpose.
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  Speaker 1: Just really quickly. We have about twenty seconds. Do you
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  Speaker 1: see indications that this administration is globalizing their diplomacy.
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  Speaker 2: Now? I don't. I wish they would.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, there's if anything, Iran is expanding the attacks
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  Speaker 3: by launching strikes presumably against Egypt, They're threatening Bulgaria, They're
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  Speaker 3: expanding to other states and countries that are now enlisting
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  Speaker 3: the Houtis and Yemen, and there was a ship sunk
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  Speaker 3: this morning in the babel Man.
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  Speaker 2: Dev So they are globalizing it.
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  Speaker 3: I think we need to globalize our response as well
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  Speaker 3: and put more again, full court press on them, beginning with.
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  Speaker 1: Economics Secretary Usper thank you so much for being with US.
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  Speaker 4: Uranian media is costing doubts and Donald Trump's claim that
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  Speaker 4: the Strait up all moves could be reopened as soon
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  Speaker 4: as today. On Tuesday, Trump said that he expected it
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  Speaker 4: to happen very soon, or else the US attacks would
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  Speaker 4: on Iran would restart the other great up.
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  Speaker 2: Rose the asking supporting that moment the.
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  Speaker 3: Mold happen tomorrow.
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  Speaker 5: A lot of progress has been made.
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  Speaker 4: All right. T Iran denies it is even talking with
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  Speaker 4: the United States, and Iran state broadcaster is reporting that
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  Speaker 4: any future agreement will be with Oman and it won't
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  Speaker 4: involve reopening the straight Rosemary Clinic is the director of
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  Speaker 4: In the Least Program at Defense Priority. She's also the
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  Speaker 4: author of Black Gold and black Mail, Oil and Great
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  Speaker 4: Power Politics. She joins US Live now. Rosemary, it is
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  Speaker 4: so good to have you. I think it's been a
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  Speaker 4: while since we've spoken. But just in terms of you know,
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  Speaker 4: your assessment of the only way in which the US
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  Speaker 4: is going to sort of end this war, do you
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  Speaker 4: think the only way out is with Iran gaining either
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  Speaker 4: some or all control over the Strait of will moves?
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  Speaker 4: Is that the only way that this war is going
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  Speaker 4: to come to an androids We.
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  Speaker 5: Yes, I think so, And that's been my view for
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  Speaker 5: a long time, and I think more and more analysts
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  Speaker 5: are coming to the same conclusion. And the reason is
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  Speaker 5: that Iran has demonstrated for months now that just by
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  Speaker 5: threatening attacks on tankers or other ships, or by doing
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  Speaker 5: limited attacks ones that don't even sank these vessels, they
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  Speaker 5: can throttle shipping through the Strait of Hormus enough to
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  Speaker 5: really cause a deficit in global oil markets that's been
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  Speaker 5: depleting inventories over time. And no matter what kinds of
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  Speaker 5: military the emissions the US has done to try to
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  Speaker 5: shuttle oil through Hormus, we have been unable to reopen
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  Speaker 5: it fully with military power alone, given the Iranian threat
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  Speaker 5: from drones and missiles and attack boats, et cetera, et cetera.
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  Speaker 5: So you know, Iran has demonstrated it can threaten traffic
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  Speaker 5: through the strait, it can do it indefinitely. It can
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  Speaker 5: do it cheaply, and it's pretty much going to be
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  Speaker 5: an endemic condition going forward that Iran has this ability.
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  Speaker 5: So the choice for the US left is to keep
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  Speaker 5: fighting a war with no resolution in sight, or to
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  Speaker 5: allow even tacitly Iranian authority over the strait, even if
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  Speaker 5: it means that they impose tolls.
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  Speaker 4: And speaking of those possible tolls, this agreement that is
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  Speaker 4: being negotiated between Iran and Oman, we don't know one
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  Speaker 4: hundred percent what is in it, but according to reports
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  Speaker 4: is this idea that ships would essentially enter the straight
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  Speaker 4: through the Iranian route and they would exit the straight
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  Speaker 4: basically hugging Oman, like going sort of close to Oman,
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  Speaker 4: and that there would be they're not calling it tolls,
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  Speaker 4: but they're calling it service fees for security. Just you know,
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  Speaker 4: explain to us first and foremost Iran's thinking with that
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  Speaker 4: sort of strategy, this idea that they would exit enter
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  Speaker 4: one way and exit via Oman. And also, obviously one
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  Speaker 4: of the major concerns is going to be that the
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  Speaker 4: security fees that Iran ends up charging is going to
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  Speaker 4: be used, possibly for nefarious purposes, possibly building their missile program.
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  Speaker 4: Who knows, but just give us your thoughts on that
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  Speaker 4: strategy here.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, so the strategy you know, in some ways is
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  Speaker 5: it actually makes me optimistic from a Western perspective, that
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  Speaker 5: Iron wants to bring Oman into this arrangement to begin with. Right,
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  Speaker 5: they're not saying we're going to be in charge. We're
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  Speaker 5: you know, we're not going to split authority with anybody,
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  Speaker 5: and we're not going to allow anybody else to charge tolls,
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  Speaker 5: et cetera, et cetera. They are trying to do some
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  Speaker 5: kind of cooperative framework with Oman in Arab state in
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  Speaker 5: the region, and that softens politically the outcome for the
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  Speaker 5: United States and for the rest of the region that
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  Speaker 5: it's not just Iran that's benefiting from this arrangement. So
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  Speaker 5: that's that's a cause for optimism, because they could be
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  Speaker 5: much harsher and more aggressive in the control that they
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  Speaker 5: want to impose over over the strait. The fact that
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  Speaker 5: they want to be in control of the incoming traffic
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  Speaker 5: does give them an upper hand because if you control
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  Speaker 5: the incoming traffic, you essentially control the outgoing traffic. Right,
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  Speaker 5: no one goes out that doesn't go in first, So
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  Speaker 5: it's a more important role for them, but it still
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  Speaker 5: does give Oman some sort of sense of control and authority,
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  Speaker 5: and you know that's it could be a lot worse
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  Speaker 5: that way. It could be a lot worse in terms
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  Speaker 5: of Iran cementing its leverage. I mean, it could always
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  Speaker 5: be worse, right, that's sort of the general role of
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  Speaker 5: international politics. It could always be worse.
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  Speaker 4: It could always do us. But just in terms of
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  Speaker 4: the security fees or the tolls that Iran may end
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  Speaker 4: up imposing. That is very tricky because once you introduce tolls,
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  Speaker 4: it's very difficult to not introduce tolls anymore, to sort
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  Speaker 4: of then say to Iran, actually, we don't want you
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  Speaker 4: to introduce toles anymore. Once you've said yes to that,
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  Speaker 4: you can't easily climb down from that.
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  Speaker 5: Absolutely, And that's what Iron is counting on. I think
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  Speaker 5: they don't just want the income. The income would be nice,
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  Speaker 5: it's important to them. It could be anywhere from eight
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  Speaker 5: billion to fifteen billion dollars a year according to various estimates.
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  Speaker 5: That's not jump change. But considering that Iran has suffered,
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  Speaker 5: by some estimates, three hundred billion dollars of damage from
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  Speaker 5: the Iran from Trump's war, and the US is reelly
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  Speaker 5: air strikes, it would still take them almost thirty years
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  Speaker 5: to get back to zero to break even, right, just
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  Speaker 5: on reconstructing their economy. So it's you know, it's favorable
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  Speaker 5: to Iran in certain ways. In the larger context, it's
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  Speaker 5: a drop in the bucket for what Iran can get.
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  Speaker 5: But yes, once you put the taxes on, and this
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  Speaker 5: is a tax, right, this is essentially Ron imposing security
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  Speaker 5: authority and charging at tax for using the straight And
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  Speaker 5: once you do that, it's pretty hard to remove money.
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  Speaker 4: Is it hard to remove? But then it sort of
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  Speaker 4: sets a precedent for other parts of the world, doesn't it.
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  Speaker 5: It could, although I don't think that the present argument
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  Speaker 5: is as strong as people think it is, because Horrmus
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  Speaker 5: is just so different from everywhere else. Right, Iran controls
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  Speaker 5: the entire northern coastline of the Persian Gulf. The Strait
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  Speaker 5: of Hormuz is one hundred miles long. That's one hundred
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  Speaker 5: mile long gauntlet that ships have to run under Iranian fire.
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  Speaker 5: The cargo that's passing through oil is so important for
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  Speaker 5: the global economy. It's just Iran just has more leverage
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  Speaker 5: over Hormus than say, the Huthis will ever have over
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  Speaker 5: the Baba landab which is only thirty miles long, which
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  Speaker 5: is like the length of the city of Chicago. So
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  Speaker 5: even though it's narrower, it's a smaller passage that ships
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  Speaker 5: have to go through from top to bottom. The Red
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  Speaker 5: Sea's much larger, of the hoothies are weaker, et cetera,
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  Speaker 5: et cetera. So other countries might try to impose a
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  Speaker 5: similar scheme, but I don't think they're going to have
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  Speaker 5: the leverage that Iran does over Hormus. It's just a
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  Speaker 5: pretty unique situation, all right.
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  Speaker 4: So it's circumstantial, and it just so happened that several
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  Speaker 4: factors worked out in their favorite in their ability to
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  Speaker 4: control the Strait Rosemare Clinic. We have to leave with that,
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  Speaker 4: Thank you so much