Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - LEAKED: The Bombshell Hitting Palantir, Tesla, Nvidia… + Stock Market News 23 January 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - LEAKED: The Bombshell Hitting Palantir, Tesla, Nvidia… + Stock Market News 23 January 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: There are five big pieces of news you need to understand today to be able to make the best decisions possible.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: In addition to that, there is massive, ginormous Palantir news, there is gigantic NVIDIA news and there is plenty of SoFi stuff we need to cover as well.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: I'll also take your questions and put them in the live chat.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: If you are alive, if you are awake, if you're here to make money, put I don't know a smiley in the chat.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Okay, so I know that you are actually a human being and not a bot, so let me run you through everything that's important here right now.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: First the big stuff first, and then we look at the stock-specific stuff the Palantirs, the NVIDIAs.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: So let me share my screen with you here.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Here we go, and yes, there will be plenty of Donald Trump mentions this year.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: So if you don't like the man, well, you could emigrate to Greenland or something.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: That probably won't work either.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: I don't think you'd be able to avoid it.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: So here's what he's saying about Russia.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Why does this matter?
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: He's basically saying end the Ukraine war now, before you can.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Loving all the smileys.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Good morning everybody.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: And why is that good news?
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Because it's good news for the market.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Take away the war.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: Europe looks like less of a basket case.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: You get less tariffs on Russia, you get more trade and things get cheaper.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Inflation goes down, energy prices go down.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: It's, generally speaking, a good thing for the market.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of just like a big sort of hello world piece to sort of start us off with, and obviously you're going to see what happens on that, but I think it's going to happen.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: The second thing, actually the second thing I wanted to spare you the picture of Donald this morning.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: He's a peculiar color, isn't he?
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: What do you make of that skin color?
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: It's sort of a.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: I think it's a spray tan, or where do you think that comes from?
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Anyway, saudi Arabia I'm not that all that far from Saudi Arabia right now are planning to spend 600 billion on US investments and sort of trade in the next four years.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Big number, yes, bigly number even, true, and it might not be $600 billion actually, right, a bit like the $500 billion might not come in at $500 billion on the AI thing, but it's big, it's beautiful, it's shiny and it just means the world wants to do business with the United States and that's good for sentiment, it's good for business, it's good for the stock market, it's good for us.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: So there it is right.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: That's really all it is.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Now, what else is good news?
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: We've got the Russians.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: This this is the biggest thing that moves stock markets.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: The biggest single buyer of stocks is who Does anybody know?
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Does anybody know who the number one buyer of stocks is?
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Put anybody know?
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Does anybody know who the number one buyer of stocks is?
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Put it in the chat.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Maybe you think it's blackrock, maybe you think it's pension funds, maybe you think it's the I don't know, the chinese or something.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: Who do you think it is?
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Put it in the chat?
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Um, and you're probably wrong unless you've been watching me for a while.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: How's the slurping today?
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: I've put on.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: There's been a lot of complaints about my drinking habits apparently Water, that is.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: So I put on a noise gate.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: Let me know if that's any better.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Is it BlackRock?
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Nope, it's not BlackRock.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: It's indeed.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Peter has been paying attention.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: I love you for that.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: Ben has been paying attention.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: A lot of you have been paying attention.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: All the guys here who are saying buybacks yes, companies are their own biggest buyers of stocks.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: So literally what we have is a trillion dollars.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: One trillion dollars is going to be spent in 2025 by companies buying their own stocks, and that's the number one driver of the stock market.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Without that, the market would never go up Seriously, just wouldn't.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: Wouldn't go anywhere.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: A complete waste of time being invested in stocks.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: So we're expecting, yeah, a huge amount in 2025, over a trillion dollars for the first time ever in the history of the stock market.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: And when's that kicking off?
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Again, I put it on the top there, on the 24th of January, which is when Tomorrow, yeah, tomorrow, tomorrow, friday so that's when the buybacks kick back in.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: So it'll properly kick back in to gear next week.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: So are you feeling a bit more bullish now?
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: You just got world peace.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: You got 600 billion from the Saudis.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: You got a trillion dollars from Apple and Nvidia and PayPal and whoever buying their own stocks, which is pretty good.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: I already thought it was Winston.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: You don't like my ASMR.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: You don't like my ASMR.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: We should have some buttons make some funny sounds.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: This is random, isn't it?
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Why do you care about rent?
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: Because what's the biggest driver of inflation right now?
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: That's the one thing that's left standing in terms of inflation.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: What is it?
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: Is it eating out?
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Is it energy?
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: Is it cars?
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: Is it fridges?
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: What do you think it is it?
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Is it eating out?
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Is it energy?
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Is it cars?
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Is it fridges?
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Is it?
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: What do you think it is?
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Well, bit of a clue here on the screen.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Right, right, it's rent.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Rent is the number one thing that's been a cause of inflation.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: And guess what?
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: Asking rents, which are new rents for new leases, are basically zero or actually falling negative, for the bigger the houses are, the lower they are.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: It means that inflation is going to come down right.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Housing avocado toast yes, avocado toast, I hear is is a big problem.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: So what does this mean?
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: The fed knows, knows this.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: Jerome the magnanimous Powell was talking about this in December.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: He was talking about new rentals coming in a bit softer.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: This is brilliant news.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: It's a bit random.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Nobody really understands this, nobody really looks at this, but you now know that it looks like inflation is going to come down over the coming months significantly because existing leases get replaced by the new leases and therefore the Fed is less worried about inflation.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Rate cuts are on the way.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: What happens when rate cuts come in?
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Stocks go where?
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Up or down.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: Up or down.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Where do stocks go when interest rates come down?
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: Let me know in the chat they go up.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: That's the way they do it, especially tech stocks.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: The correlation is basically minus 1%.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Rate cut gives us about I want to call it 8%, 9%, maybe 10%, to make it simple, 10% up in stocks, so you get a 1% cut on the interest rates.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: The stock market goes up by 10%.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: That's sort of the general idea and you guys are getting it Brilliant.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: It's a little bit on the higher side for tech stocks, non-profitable.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: It's a bit on the lower side for your more established, profitable stocks.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: So, in a nutshell, goldman Sachs, the bankers with a great big heart, you know, the ones who just care about the fluffy bunnies, those kind of bankers.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: They are basically saying we're not getting a recession and therefore, after a rate cut which is what happened here, as they say in France, it sounds just like the ear.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: The French have a problem with the letter H for some reason, one of their many.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Ok, let's not.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Let's not go into the French bashing here this morning.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: Basically, what happens is that the stock market does very, very well.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: It goes up about 50% in the two years after the first rate, cut If it's a normal market, that sort of green thing there, which is that green line there, normal market.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: So what have we got in store then?
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Beautiful bull market.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: That's really all it is right, which is pretty nice.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Are you in Doha, says Mark, not that far off, but you know close-ish, close-ish Lots of sand here, that's for sure.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: But there is a problem.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: There is a problem that makes most investors average.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: It makes most investors, you could argue, poor, and that is what that most investors put all their money into index funds, which is a heck of a lot better than not putting your money anywhere.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you just have the money in the mantras or in your bank account or something, you're losing massive amounts of money every year.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Right, the market went up.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: How much last year?
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: 24%.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: Right, last year we went up 24%.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: So if you had your money sitting in a bank account, you would be 24% poorer, in a sense, on the value of that money.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: That money lost 24% value.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: People will tell you oh, inflation is 3%, no, bollocks, inflation is 24%, which is where you could have put your money if you put it in the market.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: Now, there are some people out there.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: You know the sort of unlikable people like me who might make, you know, 100% plus last year, 100% plus last year, and that means that my money got 100% bigger and other people's money didn't.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: So those other people get, relatively speaking, poorer, and that's just the weird competitive world that we live in.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: So I'm not harming them, but in a sense I am Because I can now afford to buy something more easily than they can.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: And the problem with index investing is and that's why I keep bashing it a little bit, and I do buy the index, so I'm a little bit of companies did better.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: My handwriting on this little mouse pad here is a bit terrible.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: That's not better.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: It's meant to be better than.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: Okay, you can't see it anyway.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: Anyway, you get the idea 29% of stocks did better.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: What does that then mean?
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Well, you can't see it anyway.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: Anyway, you get the idea 29% of stocks did better.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: What does that then mean?
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Well, it means that 71% of stocks underperformed the index.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: 71% underperformed the index.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: So if you buy the S&P, 71% of the stocks in there are rubbish, terrible, dreadful, are rubbish, terrible, dreadful, sandbags, basically, while you're swimming.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: So you've got to argue and that's what all the big investors out there say like Druckenmiller, one of the greatest hedge fund investors everywhere he said it last week Once again.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: He said this is the era of stock picking.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: And you might then think, well, it's really hard to pick stocks and if you don't know where you're starting.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: I agree with you.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: There is some stuff to learn here, and it's for that very reason that tomorrow we're doing something super, super exciting.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: When literally 6,000 of you have said you're joining 6,000 people, isn't that amazing?
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: So we're going to teach tomorrow 6,000 people in a live masterclass how to pick the right stocks, how to get out of the wrong stocks at the right time, and we'll do that live.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: We'll do it at 10 am New York time, 10 am Eastern time, which is the equivalent of about 45 minutes from now, but tomorrow, on Friday, and it's completely free.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: It'll be about an hour and a half, probably maybe a bit longer if you want to ask me lots of questions, which is the intention and it'll be pure unadulterated education.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: I'll teach you what I've learned over the last 10, 15 years from my mentors and my journey, and how we make shit loads of money.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: Okay, so come and join me there tomorrow.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: I have upgraded our plan to 3 000 attendees.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: We're gonna have to talk to zoom about that one again, given that I woke up to 6 000 people on this.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: So go to felix friends at org slash webinar and grab yourself a seat.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: My friends and we're gonna have a lot of fun there and I'm super, super excited that so many of you are like I want to learn.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna get going to get better.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: I realize there is a skill to be had here, and that's the amazing thing with this community that we've built here over the last four years that there are so many people here who understand that it's important to learn this stuff, because a lot of people out there you don't realize it.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: They just think, ah, you could just get lucky.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you can get lucky, but that's not really the way you're going.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: Some of you have to work.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: Well, you know, I, I, I.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: I used to do this.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: I used to work and I used to learn at the same time.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: It's a little bit of an extra commitment, but it's the one thing that got me away from having to work right, and then I got retired and then I started working more well, no, because I enjoy what I do and it's I, I.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: You know, I'm 44 years old.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: It's not like I can just sit around, um and wait to die Well, some people do.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: But I want to do something that actually has a real impact, and I wake up every day now to these amazing messages from so many of you who are saying amazing things about how well you're doing because of what we're doing here, and that, to me, is the most fun thing I've ever done.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: Plus, my trading gets well, just gets more fun, gets a little bit less lonely as well.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: Freemason there, thank you very much.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: Smash that button.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: Are you a Freemason, my friend?
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: Get a remote job.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's definitely a first good step there.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: So Palantir news, and then we'll look at some other stuff as well, but there is a lot in this.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: So there is the army.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: The United States Army has a contract with Microsoft to make those AR goggles and they've had some issues like soldiers get dizzy, they throw up allegedly when they use the Microsoft goggles, and you wouldn't really think of Microsoft as the classic defense contractor.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: Right, they were the people who got the contract.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Basically, nobody else wanted to do it when they got the contract about two years ago.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: Palantir has put out a mixed reality headset, which is sort of an AR thing.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: It's a piece of goggles you can put on and you still see the world, but you see information put in like a sort of thing that Meta makes or Apple used to make.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: Long story short, they're going to reopen this contract, clearly because they're not happy with Microsoft.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: Palantir isn't running for it.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: There is another company that's running for it and I'll show you that one in a second.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: There's 30% or 30% or something since yesterday which is a real breakout and might be something that's worth looking at.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: But this is a big deal.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: Why is it a big deal?
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: Because this initially was a $22 billion contract and I suspect this contract is going to get bigger, because you will not have a soldier in the world in a few years who will walk around looking, you know, through the bushes.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: Everybody will have some sort of headset because it'll allow you to see around the corner.