Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 419 - 12/19/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 419 - 12/19/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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54321 All Systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
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welcome to episode 419 of the all systems Go sports betting
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podcast powered by rhythm. I am your host, Josh.
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Applebaum. What's going on everyone, happy
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Friday. Our work week is coming to an
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end and boy do we have a lot to talk about on today's podcast
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because I have a ton of NFL and college football plays for you
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guys upcoming for today for Saturday.
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Did you know there's two Saturday NFL games as well as
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College Football Playoff games? And then of course we got
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Sunday. NFLI even have a play for you
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that I think we should grab right now for Monday Night
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Football with San Francisco and the Indianapolis Colts.
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So a ton to get to 1 college play for tonight.
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Big college ball playoff game here, Oklahoma and Alabama as
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well as one college playoff game for tomorrow.
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I have two NFL plays for tomorrow and then three on
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Sunday for the NFL one on Monday.
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So I really got a laundry list of plays to talk about and walk
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through here for today. And of course, because it is
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Friday, December 19th, we are now what, 123456 days away from
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Christmas? So if you are scrambling and
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this is really kind of your last weekend to get everything
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together, last minute shopping, getting your stocking stuffers,
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getting your gift for your uncle, your nephew, whoever it
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may be, I'm just going to tell you one last time that you can
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make it easy on yourself, make me happy and make that person
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receiving this gift happy by going to Amazon.com, typing in
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the NFL Sharp betting Playbook, as well as my first book, the
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everything Guide to Sports betting.
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If you get it now, still have a few days, but get it now, it'll
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be delivered in time. You can get it wrapped, get it
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in the stocking or under the tree, but it's really just
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everything we talked about from a day driven perspective, how to
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approach betting overall for all the different sports.
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That's the everything guide. And then of course.
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In particular for the NFL, the NFL sharpening playbook.
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So if you'd like to grab one or both of my books, they would
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really, really mean really mean a lot to me.
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And I think the the person. Getting that gift, they're going
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to like it more than a flannel shirt.
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Let's leave it at that. So just want to remind you guys.
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But anyway, looking back to our last night, guys, OMG, what a
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sweat. Arguably the greatest game of
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the entire season. And not only did we win, but we
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nailed it because the Seattle Seahawks came from behind.
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They were down. They took a lead when Walker had
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that long touchdown run. Then they get down by 14 points
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in the what was it? The fourth quarter, late third
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quarter, fourth quarter, Sam Darnold.
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I'm like, why did I bet Sam Darnold?
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I was waiting for the interceptions and he threw
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multiple picks and I'm like, Jesus, Darnold, you are just
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terrible. But Seattle Seahawks, just when
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one of my favorite, you know, quotes of all time, it's always
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darkest before the dawn, The Dark Knight.
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I think it was Commissioner Gordon who said that.
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But man, the Seahawks fought back again.
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Unbelievable. And I saw everyone complaining
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about the refs and Pukunaku obviously tweeted something out
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after the game. It was all the refs.
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People are saying the two point conversion was the incorrect
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call. But no, it was a backward pass.
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And you did see the Seattle Seahawks recover the ball.
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So that was a huge play. And then of course, obviously
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get late into the game. Just unbelievable going for the
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two point conversion, winning it at the end.
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Unbelievable. And why was that such a huge
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play? Well, of course we got to win,
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so we are one and O + 0.83 units.
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So it was a winning night. That's all we care about.
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But this is something that is so near and dear to my heart.
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I say it all the time and last night was a perfect example of
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why you money line short favorites, always money line
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short favorites. Why?
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Because again, if you look at that closing line, it was a good
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sign for us because some books closed, you know, Seattle as
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high as -2 they are pretty much sitting minus. 1 1/2.
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But the important thing there is Seattle only 1 by 1.
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So if you had laid a 1 1/2, and again, you always hear this if
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you really at least I do because I'm a big proponent of always
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money lining short favorites. I tweeted something out and of
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course people are battling me trying to argue the opposite.
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But it's just for reasons like last night.
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Why you do this? Because if you laid a 1 1/2 with
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Seattle or two, of course. I even saw one book I think
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close 2 1/2 out in circa in Vegas.
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I always like when Circa is more bullish on a side than other
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books because they're really sharp.
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Tells me the sharp money's on that side.
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But if you laid the 1 1/2 or more, you lost Seattle on the
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spread. But because we went money line,
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we protected ourselves. We got that decent money line
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price. What was it?
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I think it was -120 ish -125. It was worth those extra few
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cents there because Seattle walked it off going for two and
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gave us a winner. So again, when you hear.
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Me say always money line short favorites.
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Last night is a perfect test case why it was difference
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between a win and a loss. And I also hear people argue
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like, yeah, lay lay the 1 1/2 and you'll just save the juice.
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But that's basically the difference between winning .83
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units and like, you know, .89 units .9.
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You're still going to win, you're just winning a little
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less, but you're gaining the added protection of the outcome
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being exactly what we saw last night.
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So just an unbelievable sweat for the Seahawks.
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I my heart was racing in that fourth quarter, especially going
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getting down by two scores, but Seattle battled back just
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unbelievable ending. So Seahawks got us a nice little
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1 and O + 0.83 unit night. So that being settled so we can
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keep the good vibes going and talk about one play for tonight.
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And then I got a huge list of plays for this weekend.
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So the one game that I'm focused on tonight, Alabama and
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Oklahoma. Now this one is very, very
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interesting for a variety of reasons, but I do have official
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play for you in this match up. So going into it got to know
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number one, this is not a bowl game.
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It is a College Football Playoff game first round.
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So obviously the stakes are high.
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You don't have to worry about opt outs or motivation or
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coaching Staffs who are leaving. They're both playing everybody
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and they're both going to try to win this game.
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So it's kind of a bit of an equalizer there.
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But anyway, let's set the stage talk, splits, line movement, see
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what rhythm and truth real have to say and I'll give you my play
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here. So coming into it, we got Bama,
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by the way, 8:00 kick tonight. Bama is 10 and three.
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They're the nine seed. They just got rolled by Georgia
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28 to 7 and the SEC championship game did not cover as a 1 1/2
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point neutral sight dog. Meanwhile, Oklahoma 10 and two,
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they're the eighth seed, just held off LSU 17 to 13 and their
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last game, but did not cover as a 12 1/2 point home favorite.
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So have you seen across the market here?
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Well, this game open, Bama listed around a 1 1/2 point Rd.
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favorite and the public doesn't know what to do.
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They know Bama is a huge powerhouse.
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But of course, they also got rolled by Georgia, Oklahoma, new
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to the SEC, good record. But I think there's this kind
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of, you know, bias a bit toward Bama, just name recognition,
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kind of like the Yankees, the pinstripes, something like that.
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But it's interesting to me that if you look at DraftKings, the
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tickets right down the middle 5050, public doesn't know what
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to do. They're saying Bama at basically
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a, you know, super short pick them or now even a dog more on
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that in a second or Oklahoma with true home field advantage
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laying basically now laying a short number.
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So public split, they don't know what to do 5050 And what do we
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always talk about when we start with splits that are 5050?
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Well, number one, we say, OK, no contrarian value because there's
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no heavy predominant lopsided side where you can go the other
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way. But 5050 tickets split.
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Again, we're not talking money, we're talking tickets.
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You would assume in a vacuum, theoretically speaking, a line
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shouldn't move at all because bets are even.
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Yeah equals equal on amount on both sides, so therefore you
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really shouldn't see that line move one way or the other.
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However, that's not what has happened here.
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Even though it's 5050, this line is shifted dog to fave.
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In favor of Oklahoma. So Oklahoma reminds me a lot of
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Seattle last night. Dog to fave obviously you know I
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hope we don't have to sweat it that hard but no matter what it.
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What it takes, I'll sweat this thing to the better end.
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We just got to get the Sooners to win this game.
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But we have this dog to fave in favor of Oklahoma, who went from
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plus 1 1/2 to now -1 1/2. So much one 1 1/2 around there.
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But if you look at Circa, this is what's interesting to me.
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DK is 5050. But at circa only 42% spread
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bets, but 86% of spread dollars on Oklahoma.
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So even though the public across the country is split at DK,
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you're getting a huge, huge low bets, higher dollar split on
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Oklahoma at Circa where the wise guys are at.
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So as I mentioned before, perfect example last night, I'm
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not going to lay a 1 1/2, have them win by 1 and we lose our
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bet. So I went money line here.
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I was able to get Oklahoma -112 at FanDuel other shops again,
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shop around because there are a few others like -115 but aside
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from the dog to fave line move. We also have Oklahoma at Circa
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getting 47% money line bets but 61% money line dollars.
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So low bets, higher dollars split on the money line as well.
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Tells me pros out in Vegas also going money line here.
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One big advantage for Oklahoma though, I'm going to give him a
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rest advantage because they last played on November 29th.
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Alabama last played on December 6th.
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So that's a full week rest advantage, which again, rest,
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rehab, injuries, but also game film preparing.
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It's Alabama, hopefully an advantage there.
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Sooners do have the better defense, only giving up 14.9
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points per game. Crimson Tide giving up 18.8.
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Oklahoma did beat Alabama earlier this year.
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I remember because we took the points there plus 6 1/2 on the
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road. They won 23 to 21.
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And then we get into a couple other angles here.
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I pop open rhythm. And Rhythm is also telling me to
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play Oklahoma. I have two Rhythm models.
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Get a load of this guy's. One model has Oklahoma -2.8,
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another model has Oklahoma -5.8. So again, favored by three as
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high as six. And we can money line a favorite
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around -1 -. 1 1/2. Love that one of the recommended
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place is also a Green Star money line recommendation.
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So again, also gets me a little bit more confident to play
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Oklahoma. Lastly, I popped open juice
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reel, noticed a 14% sharp mush edge in favor of the Sooners.
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So you add it all up here guys, we got a dog to fave.
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Move on Oklahoma 5050 line move at DK but super contrarian, low
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bets, higher dollars at circa rest advantage, better defense,
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good rhythm edge. Juice reel sharp mush edge as
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well. Add it all up.
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I'm going Oklahoma Sooners money line again.
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You can get them as low as -112 at FanDuel, some shops like
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-115. Now in terms of the total, just
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want to mention this, I didn't play it, but it is a bit of a
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line freeze windy under because it opened it like 40 1/2, got up
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to 41 1/2. Now it's back down to 40 1/2
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even though about 70% of tickets at DK are going over and we do
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have high 40. So it's not freezing cold in
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Oklahoma, but 15 to 20 mile per hour winds gusts up to 35 mph.
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So that is a windy under system match.
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So again, I'm not playing the total because I feel like my
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edge is greater. On the side, but just wanted to
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mention that windy kind of line. Freezer really hasn't moved.
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Did tick up slightly but came back down even though public is
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hammering the over. So I'll root for anyone who's
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playing the under here. You might be able to get a 41
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instead of a 40 1/2, but my play is a dog to fave sharp rhythm
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edge. Sooners money line.
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Let's go. Sooners win the damn game.
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Next one for you. Let's go to tomorrow.
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Big match up here between Miami, FL and Texas A&M.
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So this is your noon game tomorrow.
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I really don't understand why this is a noon game because
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James Madison, Oregon is the prime time game, but Oregon's
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favored by 21. Tulane Ole Miss is your 330 game
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to Ole Miss is favored by 17. The shortest and most
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competitive game. Why would you put it at noon?
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I don't get that. Texas A&M, Florida should be
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your your 8:00 game. Whatever.
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I don't make the schedule, but if I was I would definitely put
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this at 8:00 anyway. Miami is 10 and two the 10 seed
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Texas A&M 11 and one the seven seed.
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Miami has won four straight just beat Pittsburgh their last time
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out 38 to 7 Aggies 11:00 and 1:00.
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But they just suffered their first loss, loss to Texas, 27 to
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17, so. What are you?
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Seeing across the market here, well, this game opened, A&M
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listed around a 3 1/2 point home favorite.
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And the public is saying, give me A&M all day.
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You know, they have a slightly better record, better ranking.
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They're at home. It's a relatively short number.
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So right now you're getting nearly 70% of spread bets at DK
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laying it with the Aggies. However, Aggies haven't gone up
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-3 and half to -4 - 5. Nope, they're actually getting
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juiced up on the Miami side. Plus 3 1/2 -, 115 and a quite a
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few other books. You're actually down to three.
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So this is a true line freeze or reverse line move.
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Play public A&M very heavily back game on ABC.
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Again, it's not a prime time, but it's your early game that's
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very heavily bet. And even though Publix on
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Aggies, the liability with the juice and the line movement is
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going toward Miami, FL. So I took plus 3 1/2 with Miami.
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You can still get them plus 3 1/2 -, 115 at BET MGM.
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Other books are like plus 3 1/2 -, 120 and a lot of books are
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down to three, but you got to get the hook here.
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Miami loses by three most common key number.
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We got to be able to cover with that hook in addition.
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We have Miami as a dog who can score system match, so they
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average 33.1 points per game. So if a dog's going to cover a
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number for you, they have either got to have a great defense,
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keep it low scoring in cover, or be able to put up points, keep
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pace or backdoor cover. Carson back, also veteran QB.
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Obviously it was with Georgia. And then we get to our rhythm
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models. I have two rhythm models, both
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recommending Miami. First one is Miami.
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Plus 2.5, second one is Miami plus 3.1.
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So it's not like they're saying this should be a one point game
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or pick em game. But still, if you can get that 3
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1/2, which you can still get it, it's available, you're getting
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about a full point or a half point edge over the rhythm
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recommendation. So everyone's on Texas A&M, but
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the juice and movements going toward Miami.
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We got a rhythm edge. We got a dog who can score
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system match. We have a contrarian play and a
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very heavily bet playoff game. I took EU + 3 1/2.
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Let's win the damn game outright or lose by three or less.
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Now let's talk about some games for tomorrow in the NFL because
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if you haven't paid attention yet, I'm sure you guys know.
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But we do have two NFL games for Saturday, and I got plays on
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both of them. So let's start off with the 5:00
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game. We have the Philadelphia Eagles
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visiting the Washington Commanders.
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Obviously this is kind of a, you know, discrepancy in terms of,
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you would think, you know, playoff chances and all that
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because Philly comes in nine and five.
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Philly is fighting to win or they pretty hopefully will win
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their division easily. I have them I.
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Bet a -, 170 before the year started future to win the NFC
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East, but going for a high seed, you know, looking toward the
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playoffs. Commander is the opposite.
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Jaden Daniels has been shut down there 4:00 and 10:00.
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They actually had a long losing streak before they beat the
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Giants last week, 29 to 21. Eagles just shut out Vegas 31
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nothing but for the 5:00 game here for tomorrow.
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Couple things jump out to me #1. Nobody wants to play Washington,
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Philadelphia, Philadelphia Eagles.
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They opened as low as -5 1/2 - 6.
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Now they've been bet up all the way to the key number of seven.
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And right now 81% of spread bets are on Philly.
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So anytime you get a, an island game like this, 5:00 tomorrow
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and 81% of bets are on the favorite.
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You know, I'm thinking about going with the dog here and
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that's what I'm doing. Give me Washington plus seven
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guys. Couple things going on here.
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Number one inflated line off the opener.
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So they open five and a half 6 now you can get A7 better number
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again also because some money came in on Philly got you got to
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respect that too. But if you look at the plus
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sevens, a lot of them are plus 7 -, 110, but some are plus 7 -
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115. So I'm wondering does it get
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does it get back down to 6 1/2 between today and tomorrow?
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That would be a good sign if you're going to go commanders
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with me and sweat. Marcus Mariota, however, +7
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Washington, it is your #1 contrarian play not only of
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Saturday but of the entire weekend.
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They're only getting 19% of spread bats.
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You also look at a divisional dog.
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Divisional dogs, again, they've been decent this year, 37 and 34
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against the spread 52%, but they're closer to 54 percent, 4%
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ROI since 2020. Built in familiarity, leveling
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the playing field, benefiting the team, getting points and you
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also have a relatively big dog low total.
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So total in this one is 44 1/2 and you're getting a 7.
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That's another angle here that's worth, you know, getting behind.
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Also, we've talked about Jalen Hurts before, but guys great as
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a dog and he's pretty good as a short favorite.
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But lane 6 points or more, he's only covering like 38% of the
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time. So is this a Philly win?
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Probably, but can Washington lose by 6 or less?
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I think there's a there's a case to be made here.
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And oh, by the way, I popped open juice, sorry, Rhythm.
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And I have three models on this game.
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One says Washington should only be plus 0.6, which is a little
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crazy, but plus 1.2 and another model plus 3.9.
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So even if you take the 3.9, maybe a four point game, maybe a
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5, maybe a six point game. To me this isn't a sharp play on
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Washington, but it is your number one bet against the
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public play. Only 19% of spread bets.
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Divisional dog, inflated dog with some really good rhythm
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edges here. So I played Washington plus
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seven. I got -110 but shop around.
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I think it was Bet MGM. A lot of other books though are
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plus 7 -, 115 actually do see one book down to 6 1/2.
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So hopefully that seven will be your best number.
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So give me Washington +7 Green Bay, Chicago, your 820 game
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tomorrow night, your primetime match up here should be a great
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one. We have Green Bay 94 and 1
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Chicago Bears 10 and four Packers had a big winning streak
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and they lost to Denver 3426. Fine by us because we had Denver
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plus 2 1/2 their Bears, by the way, they have won.
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Let's see for their last five, 123456 of their last seven just
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beat Cleveland 31 to 3. So what do you see across the
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market here? Well, I don't know if it's just
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something in the air, but we got another dog to fave line move
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because Green Bay open this game as high as a -3 favorite on the
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road -3 1/2. And we've seen this line now
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flip to Chicago -1 1/2. So big injury here.
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Obviously you have Micah Parsons, who's out for the year
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now, you know, give up those multiple first round picks.
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Then he tore his ACL. Now seeing there are a few other
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injuries on the Green Bay side, but very clear here, dog to fave
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in favor of Chicago. Now you look at the splits at
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DraftKings, 63% bets but 78% dollars on Chicago spread, circa
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75% bets but over 90% dollars on the spread.
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So I don't love that it's technically public slightly in
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here. We have low bets, higher
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dollars, and we have that dog to fave line move in favor of
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Chicago. We also have a really good money
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line split. So I played Chicago on the money
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line at -121 at Bally bets or Bally Bet in Massachusetts.
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Other books are as high as -125 - 130, but I like how Chicago is
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like -1 1/2 - 2, but at Circa, they're they're -2 juiced up
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like it may go to 2 1/2. So again, it's always notable to
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me when Circa is more bullish on the side because it tells me
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smart money's in that in that direction.
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DraftKings money line 64% bets, 87% dollars.
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You also look at 1 angle that you know, we remember from last
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night in the Patriots Bills game is that when you're playing a
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divisional opponent for the second time, it's kind of hard
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for that team who won the first game to win the second game.
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It's just there's kind of a leveling of the playing field
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and it's really hard to sweep a divisional series.
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So we saw what the Patriots Bills where Pats won the first
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one, Bills won the second one. Ram Seahawks, remember, Rams won
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the first one. Seattle won last night.
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So Green Bay did hold on to beat Chicago.
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They were I think -6 1/2 just two weeks ago.
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And they beat the Bears 28 to 21, actually covered the spread
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there. But this is the second go around
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and they're at home. So I think that kind of rivalry
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or revenge angle does bode well here for Chicago.
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But we have a dog to fave line move.
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We also have a 7% sharp mush edge from our friends at Juice
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Reel on the Chicago Money line. And I did notice that Rhythm has
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one Green Star recommended play on the Chicago Money line as
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well. So prime time in Chicago.
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Dog to fave. Give me Dick on the Bears.
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I got the Bears money line -121 now few plays for Sunday.
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We haven't really talked about these, but we were talking about
21:04
them last night on the Rhythm Rundown.
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So thank you all who have who tuned in last night.
21:08
Reminder, if you want Rhythm, you can use promo code START 25
21:11
to get 25% off. And Rhythm also just added a bet
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sync so that's really cool. You can go right from the Rhythm
21:17
app to your sports book and get your bets in.
21:19
But I have 3 plays for tomorrow. So the first one I'm going
21:23
Giants plus three Giants are at home against Minnesota.
21:26
It's a 1:00 game on Sunday, and we've seen a big move toward the
21:29
Vikings because a lot of books open as low as, you know,
21:32
Vikings -1 1/2 and we saw the Vikings get all the way to -3
21:37
and really, nobody wants to play the Giants in this one.
21:41
Giants are only getting 28% of spread bets.
21:43
Everyone's playing JJ McCarthy, remember?
21:45
I got to give them credit because they had a big win for
21:48
us last week with the Minnesota Vikings going to the Cowboys and
21:53
getting that win. What was the final score, 36 to
21:56
24. So I think people are just
21:57
saying, oh, JJ McCarthy is actually good.
22:00
You know, Vikings have a better record.
22:01
They're 6 and 8G men are only two and 12, but open -1 1/2.
22:05
Minnesota got got to the key number of three.
22:08
But here's the important thing. Even though everybody and their
22:10
mother is on Vikings, they're getting 72% of spread bets.
22:14
We didn't go through the three and get up to 3 1/2.
22:16
We're starting to come back down to 2 1/2.
22:19
So that's an. Indicator to me that you had
22:21
some respected money hit the giants plus three, bring that
22:24
number back down toward 2 1/2. Now the key here is you got to
22:26
get the three because a lot of books are down to 2 1/2.
22:29
But I did notice a couple we're still at plus 3 -, 120.
22:33
You do have valley bet at plus 3 -, 117.
22:36
So that's what I jumped on. But again, shop around, make
22:38
sure you can get the key number of three because if G men lose
22:41
by three, we want to push that bet instead of lose that bet.
22:44
But super contrarian, only 28% bets, but 67% dollars on Jackson
22:49
Dart in the G men, circa 45% spread bet, 70% dollars on the G
22:55
men. You're also buying low.
22:56
Vikings have won two in a row, Giants have lost man
23:00
123-123-4567 eight in a row. So kind of the ultimate buy low,
23:06
sell high. It is a low total of 43.
23:08
So you can get that dog +2. And oh, by the way, I have three
23:12
rhythm models. One says this game should be a
23:14
dead pick em plus 0.0, another one 0.3, another one 0.9.
23:19
So rhythm is saying should be about to pick em or a one point
23:22
game. We can still shop around and get
23:24
that three. It is available at a couple
23:26
shops. You got to get that three.
23:27
It's really key and we're very contrarian.
23:29
But again, the key thing to me is it the threes are now
23:32
starting to fall back, which tells me a lot of sharps did hit
23:35
giants +3. So that's what I'm going to do.
23:37
I'm taking the G Man +3 next one for you Chargers and Cowboys.
23:44
You got to take the the Chargers, right?
23:46
The Chargers are a dog. You got to take the Chargers,
23:48
right? But Nope.
23:49
What have what have we been saying all year long, especially
23:52
I would say the last month or so, we've been saying that we
23:55
hate playing the Cowboys when they are popular and everyone is
23:59
is on the the boys bandwagon. But we love playing them when
24:03
they're unpopular and no one wants to play them.
24:05
So remember, Dallas Cowboys against the Eagles were very
24:09
unpopular, won the game outright against the Chiefs, unpopular
24:12
won the game outright. But they were a bit of a trendy
24:14
dog against Detroit and got rolled and they were a very
24:17
trendy favorite against Minnesota and lost last week.
24:21
So this is actually a very rare sharp fade.
24:24
The trendy dog play in favor of the Cowboys that give me the
24:27
give me the boys here guys. I like the Cowboys in the spot.
24:30
The more I'm looking at this game, the more it jumps out to
24:31
me. So Dallas Cowboys opened mostly
24:35
around -1 1/2 - 2. You've pretty much stayed -1 1/2
24:40
- 2. Some books are even at 2 1/2
24:43
year, even though no one wants to play the boys, Nearly 70% of
24:48
spread bats are going Chargers. Yeah, you got to take the
24:51
Chargers, the 10 and four, and they're getting points against
24:54
Dallas. You got to play the Chargers.
24:56
But he's a good spot to back a desperate Cowboys team because
24:59
to keep their hopes alive, they got to win this thing.
25:02
And for us again, we need to win.
25:04
So I went money line with the boys once again, not laying a 1
25:08
1/2, two 2 1/2 have a win by one or two and I lose.
25:11
So I got Cowboys at -127 I believe that was Bally Bet or
25:15
might have been Bet MGM, but they're only getting around 30%
25:18
of bets, but nearly 60% of dollars at DK.
25:21
It's kind of a line freeze. There's still a favorite even
25:23
though everyone's playing the Chargers.
25:25
So it tells me books don't want to drop the line and give out a
25:28
better number to contrarian. Cowboys betters money line at DK
25:32
33% bets, 44% dollars and then I also have 3 smart signals on the
25:37
Cowboys money line all from rhythm.
25:41
So again, moral the story here guys, Cowboys, you look at them
25:44
one of two ways they're popular. People are supporting the boys,
25:48
believing in the boys. We want to fade them, but when
25:50
they're gross, when no one wants to touch them, when everyone.
25:53
Says the wrong team is favored. And they're hammering the
25:56
Chargers, yet the line staying pretty much right where it's at
25:59
tells me you got a good opportunity to back Dallas on
26:01
the money line in this one. I have a system to, let's see,
26:05
non conference favorite straight up.
26:07
They've been really good historically.
26:09
They're 70% this year, 49 and 21.
26:12
They're 71% since 2020. So give me the boys here.
26:16
Money line -127 last one coming up on Sunday before we wrap up
26:21
with a Monday night game. Give me the Miami Dolphins.
26:24
Dolphins are at home against the Bengals 1:00 on Sunday.
26:27
And this is just to me a huge overreaction because Joe Burrow
26:32
again, weird things are going on with him.
26:33
He's you know, he's press conferences, he's talking
26:35
philosophically about life. And it's just, I don't know,
26:38
maybe he's done with Cincinnati. But if you look at Miami to A
26:42
tag of Iloa has been benched. So he is not only the backup of
26:46
the third string and they're going to start Quinn Newers, who
26:49
you remember from the Texas Longhorns last year, who I
26:52
thought was pretty good. He end up being a seventh round
26:53
pick. But anyway, when this game was
26:56
thought to be Tua, it was basically a pick em, pick em
26:59
game or -1 one and a half with Cincy.
27:04
Well, now this line with Quinn yours in has gone all the way up
27:06
to cincy -4 1/2. So again, a huge, huge
27:11
adjustment with yours in for two up.
27:13
And to me, part of the part of the angle here is just the fact
27:17
that, you know, you don't have to put up a million points, but
27:19
can you just not turn it over? I mean, how many times have I
27:22
sweat the Dolphins when 2 of throws picks and I'm like, dude,
27:25
what are you doing? So maybe the advantage here is
27:28
just again, limiting the turnovers.
27:30
But anyway, plus 4 1/2 I jumped on Miami.
27:33
Plus 4 1/2 feels like an overreaction play.
27:35
It's very contrarian. Dolphins are only getting 32% of
27:38
spread bets, but nearly 60% of spread dollars.
27:41
Inflated dog opportunity. You also have conference home
27:45
dogs 5 or less. They've covered 57% of the time
27:48
since 2018. And since he I know it's Burrow,
27:52
but what kind of frame of mind is he in?
27:54
And their defenses are very good.
27:56
I think T Higgins still might be banged up.
27:58
I don't know his status, but I'm going to buy low and take Miami
28:00
here plus 4 1/2. You got to shop around because
28:02
some books aren't 4. But the other angle is an 18%
28:07
sharp mush edge from Juice Reel. So that's a pretty, pretty
28:09
sizable one. And then Rhythm.
28:11
I have three models, Miami plus 1.4, Miami plus 1.6.
28:16
And I have one model that says Miami should be favored -1.3.
28:19
And this is factoring in Quinn humors.
28:21
So you got it all up here, guys. You got to get the hook, but I'm
28:24
going to play a good rhythm discrepancy A Bilo inflated dog.
28:29
I got Miami plus 4 1/2. Lastly, again, we're going to
28:33
come back on Monday for that'll be episode where we at.
28:36
That'll be 420 of the pod where my I'm not going to make a joke
28:41
there, but maybe maybe we'll watch the movie half baked on
28:44
Monday as well. But anyway, San Fran in the
28:47
Indianapolis Colts, everybody is on San Fran.
28:50
You look at the splits right now, you are getting nearly 70%
28:54
of tickets on the 49ers, but they open -5 1/2 - 6 and they
28:59
really haven't moved at all. You're still 5 1/2 for six.
29:01
So 7 out of 10 bets are on the 49ers.
29:05
Why aren't they up to -7 - 8? You know, that hasn't happened.
29:09
Tells me liability on the Colts here, Mr. old Man Rivers.
29:13
So we are a Monday night game super contrarian.
29:16
Colts only getting 30% of bets at circle.
29:19
They're only getting 23% bets, but 64% dollars.
29:23
There's a 17% sharp mush edge on the Colts.
29:27
And Rhythm has three models. Colts plus 3.3.
29:30
Colts plus 4.3. Colts plus 2.5.
29:34
So I'm going to play Old Man Rivers and again, a lot of books
29:36
are at 5 1/2, but you should be able to find that 6.
29:39
I got plus 6 -, 1 -, 110. Some shops are again plus 6 -,
29:44
115 -, 120, and some are at 5 1/2.
29:46
So 6 is a kind of a bit of a key number.
29:48
That's why I wanted to mention it today.
29:50
So you can get the six so that if it's down to 5 1/2 or maybe
29:53
it's down to five, who knows. On Monday, you want to be
29:55
holding that CLV in your pocket. So I did play Colts +6.
30:00
So that about does it. Guys hit on a lot of games.
30:02
There should be hopefully a good weekend.
30:04
A lot of great action to bet on. Didn't even mention college
30:07
basketball. Huge slate tomorrow, but that
30:10
should that should keep us occupied with some great
30:12
football games. And don't worry, college hoops.
30:14
I'm a huge college hoops guy. Got a couple of guys DM me and
30:17
say, you know where your college basketball plays and I'm like,
30:20
hey, football is is where it's at right now.
30:22
We're doing pretty decent, knock on wood and want to capitalize
30:26
because it's nearing the end of the season and pretty soon, you
30:29
know, it'll be all college basketball.
30:30
Don't worry, once we get to conference play and the calendar
30:33
gets into January, let's see if we can maximize our edge again,
30:36
as an old mentor of mine used to say.
30:39
But anyway, guys, with that being said, wrapping up the pod
30:42
here with a few final thoughts, words of wisdom, some resources.
30:45
First off, I want to say thank you.
30:47
Thank you for listening. Thank you for tuning in.
30:49
Thank you for grinding in the arena with me every single day.
30:52
Benton Sharp contrarian plays, money lining, short favorites.
30:55
When people are crying they lost the 1 1/2, we say, Yep, you
30:58
should have money lined that one.
31:00
But anyway, if you'd like to help me grow this podcast,
31:02
please could you give it a five star review on Spotify or iTunes
31:06
rate and review, leave a nice comment, click the follow
31:09
button, retweet the pod when I put it out, recommend the pod to
31:12
a friend. That would all be fantastic.
31:14
Next, as I mentioned before, holiday seasons coming up.
31:17
If you enjoy these breakdowns, the style of betting, you want
31:20
to learn more about data-driven betting or you got to get a gift
31:23
for that person in your life that you have no clue what to
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get them. Well, you should go to
31:26
Amazon.com, type in the NFL sharp betting playbook or the
31:29
everything guide to sports betting.
31:31
Grab one or both of my books, bring the sports book, I'll sign
31:34
them for you and I'll buy you a beer next.
31:38
Have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Reel yet?
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My two favorite sports betting apps.
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Rhythm, great for their AI backed models and predictions
31:44
for game bets and player props. And then of course Juice Reel.
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So many great features including the ability to track every
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single best bet from this podcast.
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You can get it right from Juice Reel.
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It costs $4.99 a week, but think of it as tipping your podcast
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host, getting the plays early, or maybe just a Christmas bonus
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for your guy over here. But I'd love for you guys to
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support the pod. Get those $4.99 a week best
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bets. You also get the Robo Jackson
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best bet picks, the sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays,
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the shop for the best line features, all available when you
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download Juice Reel. So download Juice Reel, download
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Rhythm, give him a five star review in the App Store.
32:22
Next you have a live odds page. If you don't have one, you need
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one. It's super important.
32:26
Got to be able to track line movement and identify dog to
32:29
fave line. Was very easy on the live odds
32:31
page to see the top team, you know, open -1 -, 2.
32:34
Now the bottom team is -1 - 2. So that's huge.
32:38
Got to be able to track line movement splits, not splits, but
32:41
shop for the best price, pull up the line history, identify
32:44
steam. You can all do all of that and
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also monitor the market. That's the biggest thing.
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So if you want to give it a shot 7 day free trial 50% off your
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Lastly, Novig. Have you downloaded Novig yet?
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Novig is a sports betting exchange and not a sports book.
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So as a result you are getting a better juice price on every
33:11
single game. So for example, I'm looking
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Oklahoma Bama, you get Bama plus 1 1/2 -, 1 O3 you get Oklahoma
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-1 1/2 at +100. You get over. 40 1/2 - 1 O 6
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under 40 1/2 + 100 So because you don't have to pay the juice
33:27
to the book, and you're in an exchange, which means you're
33:30
exchanging money and bets between other betters, you're
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getting better juice prices. So you can win at the same rate
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you would betting every game at DraftKings or FanDuel, but make
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more money because you're risking less juice, which means
33:41
your risky unit, you're getting more on the back end, so you're
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making more money. And when you're doing well and
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winning, you're not going to get limited or booted.
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So download Novig, fund your account by using promo code Josh
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123. It'll tack on another 25 bucks
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to your account. Lastly, because the playoffs are
33:58
getting closer every single day, please would you think about
34:01
joining my Splash Sports Survivor contest for the NFL
34:05
playoffs? I might have DM D you guys, but
34:08
I tweeted about it. It's in the description of the
34:10
podcast 25 bucks right now. You can join, but obviously you
34:14
won't have the games in the slate until, you know, the
34:16
playoffs come around, which I think is the 11th of January.
34:19
But I'd love for someone to turn 25 bucks into 5K as our buddy
34:23
Manny Davison did with the inaugural Applebaum splash
34:28
contest there. So that about does it for
34:30
episode 419 of the ASG Pod on a big fade the public Friday.
34:35
As always guys, couple final thoughts.
34:37
One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
34:40
River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
34:42
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut, the Encore in
34:45
Boston, Plain Ridge Park, casino, MGM Springfield, the
34:47
Nash and my neck of the woods in Nashua, NH on the border of New
34:52
Hampshire and Massachusetts. Or of course, out in the desert
34:55
where the true grinders get down or Billy Walters sends his
34:58
number runners where the lowest use possible is found at the
35:00
South Point where sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping
35:03
in the stadium swim pool. When you catch a big ticket at
35:05
Circo, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
35:08
You're going to show me a beautiful Seahawks money line
35:12
ticket. That's why we money line short
35:15
favorites, guys saves you. You win the game by one.
35:18
You're not going to cover a 1 1/2 or two, but you will win
35:21
your money line bet. So show me a Seahawks ticket.
35:24
We'll reinvest it into into Oklahoma tonight.
35:27
So as always, guys coming off a 1 and over and O and one, a
35:29
winning night, a losing night, a great week, a terrible week, a
35:32
hot stretch, a cold stretch. There's going to be ups and
35:34
downs and betting. There's going to be nights where
35:37
two point conversions go our way crazy, you know, situations like
35:40
last night or you win on a walk off 2 point conversion.
35:43
There's going to be nights when you lose on a walk off 2 point
35:46
conversion that is against you or your team doesn't convert,
35:48
but that's betting. But you know what we can do?
35:50
May not be able to control the outcome, but we can monitor the
35:53
market, identify the smart side with our head and on our heart
35:56
and not put ourselves in the best position to cash.
35:59
So again, we're always looking to find games that fit our model
36:02
against the public with the house with the pros flap that
36:05
avoid parlays and get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
36:09
to be successful sports betters. So have a great Friday night
36:11
everybody. Have an even better weekend.
36:13
I'll see you back on Monday for episode 420 of the All systems
36:18
Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
36:21
Good luck everybody and have a great weekend.