Latest / Racers Odds / Can Driver #3 Pull Off The Richmond 3-Peat?
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_00: Welcome to Racers Odds.
- 0:01SPEAKER_00: I'm David Stiles.
- 0:02SPEAKER_00: He's Andrew Curlin.
- 0:03SPEAKER_00: Ty Gibbs able to snag his second victory of the season and of his career in the Iowa Corn 350 out in Newton, Iowa.
- 0:12SPEAKER_00: And we had a pretty good week last week on Racers Odds.
- 0:15SPEAKER_00: Andrew, I know you were on vacation.
- 0:17SPEAKER_00: We had Nick Yeoman join us.
- 0:18SPEAKER_00: He hit a three-legg parlay.
- 0:20SPEAKER_00: I bet 50 units last week, and we made 28 units out of all of those bets.
- 0:26SPEAKER_00: I hit about half of mine.
- 0:28SPEAKER_00: So it was a pretty good week for the show, and you were having a pretty good week because uh you were down in the Cayman Islands uh looking at octopuses or octopi.
- 0:37SPEAKER_00: I always say that wrong, but uh it was a good week all around for everyone involved here on Racers Odds.
- 0:42SPEAKER_01: Yeah, 100%.
- 0:44SPEAKER_01: We are uh refresh and ready to go once again to finish off the rest of this season.
- 0:50SPEAKER_01: It was a nice week off.
- 0:52SPEAKER_01: Uh I really took advantage of it.
- 0:54SPEAKER_01: No Caribbean reef sharks.
- 0:56SPEAKER_01: That's what we wanted to see.
- 0:57SPEAKER_01: Saw some nurse sharks, um, but obviously uh an octopus or two on a night dive.
- 1:03SPEAKER_01: And so uh that was a lot of fun.
- 1:05SPEAKER_01: I've got the bug.
- 1:06SPEAKER_01: Now I want to go uh before the Echo Park races next year to the Atlanta Aquarium and dive with a whale shark.
- 1:14SPEAKER_01: So I'm already researching my next uh dive adventures and trying to uh do it around these NASCAR races.
- 1:22SPEAKER_00: Yeah, the Atlanta Aquarium, if you've never been there, folks, it is phenomenal.
- 1:26SPEAKER_00: It's a huge, it huge aquarium.
- 1:29SPEAKER_00: And like Andrew said, they have whale sharks.
- 1:31SPEAKER_00: It's just a really, really cool, really cool place.
- 1:33SPEAKER_00: I like the sea creatures.
- 1:34SPEAKER_00: I'm a big octopus fan, so it uh what you were doing, I was kind of a little bit of FOMO.
- 1:40SPEAKER_00: I was watching and going, man, this is some really cool stuff.
- 1:42SPEAKER_00: We had some really good racing, though.
- 1:44SPEAKER_00: And Ty Gibbs was able to hold off a late charge from Christopher Bell.
- 1:48SPEAKER_00: He ends up with his seventh second place finish on the season.
- 1:52SPEAKER_00: And now we get ready to head to one of NASCAR's oldest tracks, and that is Richmond Raceway.
- 1:58SPEAKER_00: And things are looking up for our short track aces, but I don't know if I would put any money on Ty Gibbs this week, even though he won last week at a short track.
- 2:09SPEAKER_00: Andrew, what are you thinking as we get ready to go to Virginia and another great race coming up here before the end of the regular season?
- 2:18SPEAKER_01: You'd be foolish to not be thinking about Austin Dillon and this being his week.
- 2:23SPEAKER_01: Uh that's that's at the top of my mind.
- 2:26SPEAKER_01: And and I know that his crew chief Richard Boswell was on Sirius XM earlier this week saying, you know, I know we've got a target on our backs.
- 2:34SPEAKER_01: Uh, it's just about executing.
- 2:36SPEAKER_01: And there's a reason he's won this race two years in a row.
- 2:40SPEAKER_01: Um, obviously, the first time around that he won it, it was a controversial finish, but he was the best car that night.
- 2:48SPEAKER_01: And last year, same story.
- 2:50SPEAKER_01: Uh, he was the best car.
- 2:52SPEAKER_01: I think you'd be foolish to not look at Austin Dillon to once again find a way to steal a race and win this race.
- 3:00SPEAKER_01: Um, I know the format is different, but there's just something magic that goes on with these Richmond cars at the RCR camp.
- 3:08SPEAKER_01: And he's plus 1,200 to win.
- 3:10SPEAKER_01: I feel like that is that's some really good juice on a guy that you wouldn't expect to win really any other weekend, but when you come to Richmond, you think of Austin Dillon.
- 3:20SPEAKER_01: This is his wheelhouse and it's his track, and I think you'd be foolish to ignore that.
- 3:24SPEAKER_00: Completely agree.
- 3:25SPEAKER_00: And last week I had a few bets for that three team and RCR and Austin Dillon, and they both hit.
- 3:31SPEAKER_00: And I think it's time to go back to that well.
- 3:34SPEAKER_00: He's the only active driver that has consecutive wins at Richmond.
- 3:38SPEAKER_00: The closest one to him was Kyle Bush, Martin Tricks Jr., and Jimmy Johnson, but those guys aren't racing anymore.
- 3:45SPEAKER_00: And so he's the only active one to win back-to-back races right now out of this group of drivers that we have in the Cup Series.
- 3:51SPEAKER_00: So for me, I'm looking at Austin Dillon to top five.
- 3:54SPEAKER_00: I know that the juice is really good to squeeze on him to win at plus 1200.
- 3:59SPEAKER_00: I think the top five is almost a, it's gonna happen, almost a perfect hit, minus some kind of catastrophe and him getting mired back in a wreck or something of that nature.
- 4:10SPEAKER_00: You can find that on DraftKings at plus 160.
- 4:14SPEAKER_00: So that's another solid, solid bet for Austin Dillon.
- 4:17SPEAKER_00: And like I said a little bit before, I know Ty Gibbs has been really good at the short tracks.
- 4:21SPEAKER_00: He won at Iowa last week.
- 4:23SPEAKER_00: He won at Bristol earlier in the season.
- 4:25SPEAKER_00: I think you need to stay away from him, even though he's got a lot of momentum coming in to Richmond Raceway.
- 4:31SPEAKER_00: His average finish at this track is 19.
- 4:34SPEAKER_00: So just a little bit of fade there on last week's winner.
- 4:37SPEAKER_00: I know that we didn't really talk much about Ty Gibbs last week on the betcast, but if you're looking at him, I just caution you.
- 4:45SPEAKER_00: I think Andrew is right, and you need to go with Austin Dillon.
- 4:48SPEAKER_01: Now, there's another Austin that I've got my eye on at Richmond, and that is Austin Sindrick.
- 4:54SPEAKER_01: He finished fifth last year, but he was a top 10 car all night long.
- 4:58SPEAKER_01: Finished in the top 10 in both stages, um, and he's plus 215 to top five.
- 5:03SPEAKER_01: I like that out of the Penske camp.
- 5:06SPEAKER_01: Uh, and I've I'll I'll go on a little bit of a roll here and just explain the rest of my thought processes, but um I've heard from a handful of drivers talking to them at North Wilkesboro that North Wilkesboro and Richmond for some reason remind them of the other track.
- 5:25SPEAKER_01: Like there's they s there seem to be a lot of similarities between North Wilkesboro and Richmond.
- 5:30SPEAKER_01: We'll look at the Penske car that won North Wilkesboro in a dominating fashion, Joey Logano, who also finished fourth last year and was one you know straight away away from winning this race that Austin Dillon ended up winning back uh in twenty twenty-four when Austin Dillon wrecked Joey Logano.
- 5:51SPEAKER_01: I've got him minus one oh five to top five.
- 5:54SPEAKER_01: I really like that.
- 5:55SPEAKER_01: And if we're sticking on the trend of North Wilkesboro and Richmond, we'll race similar.
- 6:01SPEAKER_01: SVG finished 14th in this race last year.
- 6:05SPEAKER_01: He ran really well at North Wilkesboro, capturing an impressive top 10.
- 6:10SPEAKER_01: I've got him plus 300 to top 10 this weekend at Richmond.
- 6:14SPEAKER_01: I think we're gonna see the SVG oval racer come out once again.
- 6:19SPEAKER_00: I like both of those bets, and I will give you another Logano bet.
- 6:22SPEAKER_00: Everyone knows I like these matchups.
- 6:25SPEAKER_00: He is matched up with his teammate, Ryan Blaney.
- 6:27SPEAKER_00: They're both minus 115.
- 6:29SPEAKER_00: I'm putting the money on Logano at minus 115 in that matchup, and I think that it will be pretty strong.
- 6:34SPEAKER_00: Another Ford that I think will be good, and Nick Yeoman hit on him last week.
- 6:40SPEAKER_00: Josh Barry to top 10 at this racetrack is plus 190 on DraftKings.
- 6:44SPEAKER_00: I think that's another solid bet, and he could be a sleeper in this pack as well.
- 6:49SPEAKER_00: He finished fourth last week, and that was a true fourth place finish.
- 6:53SPEAKER_00: Earned it every single lap.
- 6:55SPEAKER_00: And so I think Josh Barry to top 10 will be another solid one.
- 6:59SPEAKER_00: There's two other matchups that I'm looking at, and then another top 10, and I'm probably going to take these matchups and put them into a parlay.
- 7:07SPEAKER_00: And I know we're getting down towards the end of the season.
- 7:10SPEAKER_00: I'm trying to maximize as much of these units as I can, and I think both of these matchups have a good probability of hitting, and they've got some good odds.
- 7:19SPEAKER_00: I'm going to pick Christopher Bell versus Denny Hamlin in a head-to-head matchup.
- 7:24SPEAKER_00: Bell is plus money on Caesars at plus 100.
- 7:26SPEAKER_00: Hamlin is favored at minus 130.
- 7:29SPEAKER_00: If you look at the top 10 averages and who runs here finishing position, it's Denny Hamlin and then Christopher Bell.
- 7:36SPEAKER_00: I know the sample size is much bigger for Denny Hamlin, but Christopher Bell has a ton of momentum coming into this race, and I think he could finish ahead of Denny Hamlin at Richmond.
- 7:48SPEAKER_00: The next matchup, the third matchup in this three-leg parlay, is two teammates again head to head, and that is Chase Elliott versus William Byron.
- 7:58SPEAKER_00: William Byron, he's been kind of hit or miss.
- 8:03SPEAKER_00: Chase Elliott?
- 8:04SPEAKER_00: Very much so.
- 8:04SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 8:05SPEAKER_00: Yes, very much so.
- 8:06SPEAKER_00: And Chase Elliott, he has eight top ten finishes here at Richmond.
- 8:11SPEAKER_00: So I like him at minus 105 to Byron's minus 125.
- 8:16SPEAKER_00: If you take all three of those matchups and put them into a three-leg parlay, it's plus six thirty-five, and I think that's some pretty good value.
- 8:23SPEAKER_00: I am going to lay some money on each one of those matchups individually, and then also hit the three-leg parlay.
- 8:29SPEAKER_00: This way I'm kind of hedging my bets a little bit.
- 8:31SPEAKER_00: This way, if one of them doesn't pan out, I still get a little bit of return there.
- 8:36SPEAKER_00: So what do you think of these matchups?
- 8:38SPEAKER_00: And are you looking at any head-to-head things, Andrew?
- 8:40SPEAKER_01: I have not looked at any head-to-head matchups uh yet, but I do like Bell over Denny Hamlin.
- 8:47SPEAKER_01: I mean, i it's a running joke at this point that this guy has so many second place finishes he can buy the bridesmaid dress at this point.
- 8:56SPEAKER_01: But I think, and I saw a tweet about this uh the other day.
- 9:01SPEAKER_01: I'm sorry I can't give credit to who it was, but that's a car and a team and a driver that's in championship form for the chase format.
- 9:11SPEAKER_01: And Christopher Bell, just like I think Denny Hamlin uh and even Ty Gibbs to a certain degree, can win anywhere.
- 9:18SPEAKER_01: Um look at all the second place finishes he's had and the variety of racetrack types.
- 9:24SPEAKER_01: Christopher Bell is heating up in a massive way, and I I think just like you said, David, I think you'd be foolish to ignore that.
- 9:32SPEAKER_01: Um second place, yeah, it's not winning, it's it's not the ultimate goal, but second place pays a lot, especially in this format and for this uh chase that we're about to enter.
- 9:45SPEAKER_01: And I'm liking the the trends of that 20 team.
- 9:50SPEAKER_01: I know there may be some dejection of man, why can't we win?
- 9:55SPEAKER_01: But overall, if I'm Adam Stevens, if I'm Christopher Bell, I'm pretty happy with the speed in our race cars week in, week out.
- 10:04SPEAKER_01: I mean, they're they're they're right there.
- 10:05SPEAKER_01: I think he could win it this weekend.
- 10:07SPEAKER_01: He's minus uh, no, no, he's not minus.
- 10:10SPEAKER_01: I'm looking at top 10.
- 10:11SPEAKER_00: He's plus 480 to win on Caesars.
- 10:13SPEAKER_00: I know.
- 10:13SPEAKER_01: I have him plus 550 on DraftKings, but he's the second most favorite driver behind Denny Hamlin.
- 10:19SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 10:19SPEAKER_01: So um I like fine headset with Chris Scherbell.
- 10:23SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and that's why in this head-to-head, if he's plus money, I think that it's a solid bet.
- 10:27SPEAKER_00: I mean, it there is a good chance that he will finish ahead of Denny Hamlin.
- 10:31SPEAKER_00: And for me, he's got the best crew, you know, the pit crew, and a good crew chief.
- 10:37SPEAKER_00: So all of that is going to play into the factor of what we will see at Richmond.
- 10:42SPEAKER_00: And he may end up not winning this race.
- 10:45SPEAKER_00: And we joked earlier in the week that he may win the championship and have nothing but second place finishes.
- 10:52SPEAKER_00: And that could happen, but he's got a ton of momentum.
- 10:56SPEAKER_00: He's running top five, top three every week.
- 10:59SPEAKER_00: And when you're doing that, you're getting looks at wins and chances for wins, and you're scoring lots of points.
- 11:05SPEAKER_00: So I agree with everything that you're saying.
- 11:07SPEAKER_00: I think they're getting hot at the right time.
- 11:09SPEAKER_00: The last bet that I have is Chase Elliott to top ten.
- 11:14SPEAKER_00: Like I said, he has eight top 10, eight top tens here.
- 11:17SPEAKER_00: That's plus 100.
- 11:19SPEAKER_00: Oh, that's good.
- 11:19SPEAKER_00: I think that nine team, that's on DraftKings as well.
- 11:23SPEAKER_00: I think that nine team, they're going to be the best Hendrick Carr out of this group.
- 11:27SPEAKER_00: I would stay away from Kyle Larson.
- 11:29SPEAKER_00: I I don't know what's going on with them, but they seem to be in a funk, and they're getting wrecked out at a crazy rate, and I'm just not comfortable with it.
- 11:38SPEAKER_00: Even though Kyle Larson has a pretty good driver rating here and a pretty good average finish, I think Chase Elliott may be the bell of the ball when it comes to the Hendrick drivers this weekend.
- 11:48SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
- 11:50SPEAKER_01: I I wish you luck on that.
- 11:52SPEAKER_01: I'm staying away from Hendrick for the time being.
- 11:54SPEAKER_01: I just I don't know what's going on with them as an organization.
- 11:58SPEAKER_01: Uh, they just haven't shown up.
- 12:00SPEAKER_01: And uh I think I think talking about top 10, I mean you you need to finish 10th to finish in the top 10 for that bet to pay out.
- 12:08SPEAKER_01: So um I think they're back half of the top 10, top 15 type of team this weekend at Richmond.
- 12:15SPEAKER_01: Um but certainly not bad to take a look at Chase Elliott.
- 12:19SPEAKER_01: Last guy I want to highlight, it's actually the guy that led the most laps last year, and it wasn't Austin Dillon.
- 12:24SPEAKER_01: It was Bubba Wallace who finished second and first in both stages, led 123 laps in the race, didn't have the result to show for it.
- 12:33SPEAKER_01: But um I I'm still trying to find the value in that necessarily.
- 12:38SPEAKER_01: He's minus 150 to top 10.
- 12:40SPEAKER_01: I don't know if I like to take that, but something to keep your eye out is bubble wallets.
- 12:46SPEAKER_01: Pay attention to the speed he's got in practice and qualifying.
- 12:48SPEAKER_01: If you're feeling it, if he's looking good, maybe that's the guy you pick up later in the weekend.
- 12:53SPEAKER_01: But um, that's all that I have.
- 12:55SPEAKER_01: David, should we get to pick him?
- 12:57SPEAKER_00: Let's go ahead and do it.
- 12:58SPEAKER_00: I mean, it was an atrocious week.
- 13:00SPEAKER_00: If Nick would have we asked him last week, if you had one guy to pick, who would you pick?
- 13:05SPEAKER_00: And he said Ryan Blaney, and he he would have done decently.
- 13:08SPEAKER_00: Pretty good.
- 13:09SPEAKER_00: We we both were not we didn't do well.
- 13:12SPEAKER_00: I didn't know that you had picked Keslowski when we recorded last week, but uh you couldn't have picked him anyways.
- 13:17SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I couldn't have picked him anyway.
- 13:19SPEAKER_00: I've already used him at the first Darlington race, and so uh it is what it is.
- 13:24SPEAKER_00: I mean, how many points did you end up netting?
- 13:26SPEAKER_00: Ten.
- 13:27SPEAKER_00: Ten.
- 13:27SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and I had six, so we're we're back at like two hundred for me in the bet book uh that I'm down.
- 13:35SPEAKER_00: And yeah, and it's uh it's not looking good.
- 13:39SPEAKER_00: I mean, we we're gonna have to start pulling some big hitters right here.
- 13:42SPEAKER_01: So I I I think you can only pick one driver the entire season, so you gotta save them for the right times.
- 13:49SPEAKER_01: But uh, David, since you scored less points than I did, you get to pick first this week.
- 13:54SPEAKER_00: Well, I think we all know who I'm gonna pick.
- 13:56SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's pretty obvious.
- 13:57SPEAKER_00: We haven't used this guy yet on my side of the board.
- 14:00SPEAKER_00: We're going with Austin Dillon.
- 14:02SPEAKER_00: I think he he goes for the three Pete.
- 14:04SPEAKER_00: The crazy thing is you look at these stats, there's been multiple drivers that have won consecutive races here.
- 14:11SPEAKER_00: Richard Petty has done it seven times in a row, which is just it blows my mind when I'm reading these stats.
- 14:19SPEAKER_00: But Austin Dillon has a chance to continue his streak and go for three in a row, and I think it's doable.
- 14:26SPEAKER_00: I think that three team is just really good here.
- 14:29SPEAKER_00: They have the secret sauce when it comes to Richmond Raceway, and I think they'll get it done this weekend again.
- 14:34SPEAKER_01: You know, I'm looking at uh Pickham here, and I'm just trying to check and make sure I haven't picked this driver, and I don't think I have.
- 14:45SPEAKER_01: And David, you might need to check me if I'm wrong.
- 14:48SPEAKER_01: I originally had Austin Dillon when I saw you scored less points than I did.
- 14:52SPEAKER_01: I'm like, all right, I need to come up with a backup plan.
- 14:55SPEAKER_01: Um truthfully, that backup plan was gonna be Austin Cindrick because uh I feel like he had good speed last year, good solid top 10 speed.
- 15:04SPEAKER_01: That's what I'd be looking for.
- 15:05SPEAKER_01: But I I like the RCR speed.
- 15:10SPEAKER_01: And if you remember, Austin Dillon wasn't the only fast RCR car last year.
- 15:16SPEAKER_01: It was Kyle Bush as well.
- 15:19SPEAKER_01: So the question is, I I I don't think I've picked him, but I might go with the other RCR car in Austin Hill.
- 15:25SPEAKER_01: I think I think they're gonna have they're gonna have wicked fast setups in both of their cars this weekend.
- 15:30SPEAKER_01: Um then I can save Austin Cindrick for when I want him and find another time for Austin Dillon.
- 15:37SPEAKER_01: So I actually think I'm going to go with Austin Hill this weekend as my pick.
- 15:43SPEAKER_00: I like that because then you can use Austin Dillon at Daytona in a couple of weeks.
- 15:48SPEAKER_00: He's he's pretty good down there, too.
- 15:50SPEAKER_00: So I it's starting to get a little bit hairy in the pick'em because we're running out of drivers and we were both kind of doing the same strategy where we're holding some of the better drivers for the end of the year.
- 16:01SPEAKER_00: And so it's gonna get real interesting here, real quick, because we're both gonna want to pick some guy at the same place, and we're gonna end up having to choose one of our other big hitters.
- 16:11SPEAKER_00: And so stay tuned for that.
- 16:13SPEAKER_00: We're we're getting down to the nitty-gritty.
- 16:15SPEAKER_00: I'm way behind in pick them, but both of us are doing pretty well in the bet books.
- 16:18SPEAKER_00: If you've been following along with all of our bets, I'm plus 28 units from last week, so I'm up almost 50 something units on the bet book.
- 16:27SPEAKER_00: I think Andrew or 250-something units on the bet book.
- 16:30SPEAKER_00: Andrew, you're around that too.
- 16:32SPEAKER_00: You're at plus 300 something.
- 16:34SPEAKER_00: So if you're following along and you're betting with us, you're doing pretty well.
- 16:40SPEAKER_00: So the the show is doing well.
- 16:42SPEAKER_00: And and Andrew, what what are your thoughts so far as having done almost a full season of Racer's odds on where we are as far as that is concerned?
- 16:50SPEAKER_01: Well, it's funny just looking at the momentum and how uh certain drivers are hot and they're not.
- 16:56SPEAKER_01: And one bet that I am purposely leaving out this week that I normally do is$1 on Tyler Reddick, because um if it was one dollar for Tyler Reddick to DNF, I think I would take that bet, but uh that one's not available.
- 17:11SPEAKER_01: But yeah, just it's interesting how the season ebbs and flows and um how momentum and track history both play into it all.
- 17:19SPEAKER_01: So um it's been fun to it's been fun to try to predict, especially when you get it right.
- 17:25SPEAKER_01: I've been looking at the pick'em standings, and I think I've picked three winners this year when you can only pick one driver once at one racetrack.
- 17:32SPEAKER_01: So um I'm pretty proud of that.
- 17:34SPEAKER_01: And so that's what makes it fun, is is now I'm gonna root for Austin Hill this weekend, try to get me some points at Richmond to extend my points lead and pick them.
- 17:43SPEAKER_00: Well, I'll I'll give you your kudos on that.
- 17:45SPEAKER_00: I'm not good at pick'em.
- 17:46SPEAKER_00: Like it's just not my thing.
- 17:48SPEAKER_00: I'm good at these matchups and I'm good at shorting it and looking for the value and trying to stay around the bankroll.
- 17:54SPEAKER_00: So we've both got our strengths and our weaknesses, but we're trying to give you more excitement, inject some fun into these races as you get ready to enjoy them every weekend and help you grow your bankroll.
- 18:05SPEAKER_00: Again, we're not here to get rich quick or make a bunch of money just on one parlay bet.
- 18:10SPEAKER_00: It's about trying to grow that investment and treat it as something that has value instead of just, you know, money you're throwing down the drain.
- 18:18SPEAKER_00: So hopefully you're finding some value and some information.
- 18:22SPEAKER_00: I need to get us a shirt made.
- 18:23SPEAKER_00: I know Kevin started the thing, find the value.
- 18:27SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna get us some shirt made, you know, some t shirts and some swag or something like that, and we'll have some find the value gear at some point.
- 18:34SPEAKER_00: But if you're on YouTube watching us, make sure you like, comment, and subscribe, and then also check us out on Apple Podcasts and on Spotify.
- 18:42SPEAKER_00: For Andrew Curland, I'm David Stiles.
- 18:44SPEAKER_00: Thanks for stopping by, Racer's Odds.