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Why America’s Other Economy Is Starting to Struggle · The Financial Exchange Show

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  Speaker 1: Zada and Mike Armstrong.
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  Speaker 2: Chuck Mike Tucker. Here, we've got interesting little day taking
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  Speaker 2: place in Mark. It's kind of reversing the rotation that's
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  Speaker 2: been dominant for the last couple months. SB five hundred
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  Speaker 2: pretty much flat, up eight points after being down about
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  Speaker 2: fifteen points earlier in the day. The Dow Jones Industrial
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  Speaker 2: Average is up eight hundred and twelve points about one
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  Speaker 2: point six percent today, and the NASDAK composite, though down
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  Speaker 2: about point four percent is Semiconductor stocks, led by Broadcom,
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  Speaker 2: are dragging the NASDAK lower this after Broadcom reported earnings
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  Speaker 2: yesterday that were good, but the guidance was just a
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  Speaker 2: little lackluster, and so you've got Broadcom stock down. It
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  Speaker 2: was down north of fifteen percent to start the day,
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  Speaker 2: but trying to make a little bit of a rally
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  Speaker 2: here now down only thirteen and a half percent. So
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  Speaker 2: we'll see where things go on that front. Tenure Treasury
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  Speaker 2: down two point six bases points to four point four
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  Speaker 2: to six five. We've been in a holding pattern there
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  Speaker 2: for the last I don't know, eight to ten days.
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  Speaker 2: Somewhere in that ballpark. Dollar Index down point twenty four
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  Speaker 2: percent to ninety nine point two six five, and we've
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  Speaker 2: got gold up twenty one dollars and ounce to forty
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  Speaker 2: four eighty seven. Crude oil West Text Intermediate down another
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  Speaker 2: three to zho one per barrel to ninety three zero one.
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  Speaker 2: This after a few days of gains to start the week,
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  Speaker 2: so retracing some of those just a little bit triple
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  Speaker 2: a national averagur gas prices down another two cents over
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  Speaker 2: night to four twenty four and one tenth. It's now
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  Speaker 2: about thirty cents off the peak. The bulk of this
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  Speaker 2: coming from gas prices falling in the Midwest now that
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  Speaker 2: some refinery issues there have been fixed, but the broader
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  Speaker 2: US economy seeing gas prices coming in about fifteen to
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  Speaker 2: twenty cents, So still a little bit of relief for
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  Speaker 2: people now at the pump, though prices remain high at
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  Speaker 2: the moment. Mike, there's a piece of the Financial Times
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  Speaker 2: America's other economy tells a different growth story. What is
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  Speaker 2: the other economy?
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  Speaker 3: It's anything that doesn't have to do with AI apparently,
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  Speaker 3: so it's pretty broad. Specifically here that they are talking
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  Speaker 3: about retailers and the struggles that those companies are going through,
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  Speaker 3: and interesting read I again have to reiterate to folks
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  Speaker 3: who may not, you know, for anyone that isn't in
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  Speaker 3: the workforce today and doesn't pay particularly close attention to
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  Speaker 3: how the markets work. The only thing that matters to
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  Speaker 3: the stock market right now is artificial intelligence. I'll say
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  Speaker 3: it again. The only thing that matters right now is AI.
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  Speaker 3: And the struggles of retailers to make their brand stand out,
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  Speaker 3: or the profit boom that energy stocks have received, or
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  Speaker 3: the build out of electricity networks or telecoms, or you know,
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  Speaker 3: amazing successes with weight loss drugs are all interesting, but
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  Speaker 3: are not genuinely contributing all that much to the growth
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  Speaker 3: of the stock market right now.
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  Speaker 4: What matters is these AI trades.
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  Speaker 3: And it's interesting to me, you know, what we might
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  Speaker 3: be able to learn by looking at some of these
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  Speaker 3: other areas. And the Financial Times does have a good
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  Speaker 3: piece here. What you're seeing is that sales volumes at
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  Speaker 3: fifteen to the largest US staples companies, which they include
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  Speaker 3: Coca Cola, Procter, Gamble, Hershey and there, they've been negative
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  Speaker 3: for thirteen of the last eighteen quarters. And there's two
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  Speaker 3: trends that I think these companies are dealing with and
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  Speaker 3: have been dealing with with a while for a while.
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  Speaker 3: One is a consumer that increasingly shops online, does not
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  Speaker 3: care much as much about product placement, is more and
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  Speaker 3: more comfortable with generics over traditional brand placement. And two
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  Speaker 3: is a consumer that's just feeling the pinch from years
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  Speaker 3: of high inflation, a stagnant jobs market, and now renewed
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  Speaker 3: inflation from gas prices, none of which are good for
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  Speaker 3: these staples companies.
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  Speaker 2: I would like to throw another hat in the ring,
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  Speaker 2: just of the ones that were mentioned and some others
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  Speaker 2: that have struggled in the last place year or so.
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  Speaker 2: GLP ones absolutely affecting what we're seeing in food choices, yep.
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  Speaker 2: You know, like you take a look at consumer cyclicals
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  Speaker 2: restaurants last year, last twelve months, Young Brand's up three
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  Speaker 2: point eight percent. Who's getting excited about that? McDonald's down eleven,
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  Speaker 2: Chipotle down forty four, Darden down ten, Domino's down thirty two.
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  Speaker 2: You know, there's something there as well that I think
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  Speaker 2: is worth talking about because like some of your other
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  Speaker 2: like defensive names again, like even Coke and PEPSI like
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  Speaker 2: they're up about, you know, ten percent over the last
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  Speaker 2: year or so. Walmart's up twenty, you know, like you can't.
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  Speaker 2: I know, Walmart sells groceries, but fifty percent of what
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  Speaker 2: Walmart sells he can't eat unless you're a moth. Yeah,
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  Speaker 2: So I don't know. I kind of look at some
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  Speaker 2: of this and I think that's an underrated piece as well.
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  Speaker 2: That remember, all stocks get priced on the margin. It's
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  Speaker 2: can you get that extra unit of sales that generates
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  Speaker 2: that extra revenue that gets you that extra profit. And
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  Speaker 2: there's probably something that's happening there when you look at
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  Speaker 2: a lot of these again, a lot of those names
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  Speaker 2: are like food names that are struggling, and I think
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  Speaker 2: there's something there the other places. Again, I'm just looking
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  Speaker 2: like last twelve months, like you will get the names
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  Speaker 2: that have struggled a lot home improvement companies obviously, like
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  Speaker 2: things have remained slow, there no doubt about it. This
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  Speaker 2: one surprised me. You Netflix is down thirty three percent
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  Speaker 2: in the last twelve months.
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  Speaker 4: Not something people are paying attention to.
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  Speaker 2: No, they're really not. A bunch of software names down
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  Speaker 2: you know, thirty to sixty percent. We talked about that
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  Speaker 2: earlier this year. Again, that's part of that AI trade.
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  Speaker 2: Will AI eat software? And then the other piece that's
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  Speaker 2: interesting to me just again looking at last twelve months,
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  Speaker 2: because I you miss things sometimes if you're just focused
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  Speaker 2: on like today or this week. Do you have a
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  Speaker 2: Visa and master Card down twelve and seventeen respectively in
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  Speaker 2: the last twelve months? Wow? Like, would you have ever
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  Speaker 2: guessed that? Likely? I wouldn't have. So I don't know.
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  Speaker 2: I try to like pull together the thoughts of like, hey,
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  Speaker 2: like what is actually a story and what isn't and
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  Speaker 2: if if consumers are really like if if the story
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  Speaker 2: is Hey, anything consumer driven is doing so badly? Okay, Like,
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  Speaker 2: tell me why Marriott and Hilton stock are both up
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  Speaker 2: forty five and thirty five percent. Tell me why TJX
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  Speaker 2: is up twenty four tell me why we're execution, you know,
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  Speaker 2: tell me why Ross Stores is up sixty three percent.
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  Speaker 2: I'm just going through the S and P five hundred
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  Speaker 2: and some of these consumer names.
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  Speaker 3: One more trend that I think's worth looking at, Chuck,
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  Speaker 3: go take a look at the major alcohol companies. And
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  Speaker 3: I know we've covered that story a couple of times,
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  Speaker 3: about changing trends towards consumption and yeah, and younger generations.
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  Speaker 3: Constellation brands off twenty three percent of the last twelve months,
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  Speaker 3: Molten Cores off twenty seven percent, ab and Bev up
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  Speaker 3: seven percent, Diagio down twenty nine percent.
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  Speaker 2: But you know, like I look at like Campbell's Soup
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  Speaker 2: down thirty seven General Mills down forty percent.
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  Speaker 1: Uh.
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  Speaker 2: Like, you go through like a lot of these food names,
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  Speaker 2: and it's there's something there that I think is is
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  Speaker 2: beyond just like consumer problems, because if it was just
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  Speaker 2: consumer problems, then hotels and airlines beginning wrecked too. Well.
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  Speaker 3: I think it's a value problem like Walmart's. Yeah, maybe not.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, what did you say, McDonald's. McDonald's is struggling too.
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  Speaker 3: I mean Walmart's crushing it. Costco has held.
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  Speaker 2: Costco's down six percent the last year too, So I
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  Speaker 2: think to say, hey, like the consumer's struggling and that's
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  Speaker 2: why these companies are doing badly. No, it's it's not consistent,
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  Speaker 2: Like there's there's more of an execution piece here. I
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  Speaker 2: think that has to be looked at, and I think
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  Speaker 2: the JLP piece is one that's affecting these companies, you know,
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  Speaker 2: at the margin as well. Not all of them uniquely.
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  Speaker 2: You know, some of them can hold up a little
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  Speaker 2: bit better. But again, you look through food names. I
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  Speaker 2: can't find one that's up double digits. I'm looking through it,
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  Speaker 2: and so that to me tells me like, hey, there
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  Speaker 2: might be something else here, you know. Actually, sorry, the
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  Speaker 2: only one that is is Hershey up thirteen percent, And
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  Speaker 2: even that's probably just they have pricing power because the
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  Speaker 2: price of cocoes through the roof and so all is
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  Speaker 2: being equal. If you can raise prices, you don't need
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  Speaker 2: to sell more chocolate. So I don't know, it's it's
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  Speaker 2: just kind of interesting to zoom out because so often
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  Speaker 2: we just sit there and we're like, Hey, what'd this
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  Speaker 2: do today or this week or this month. The one
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  Speaker 2: year numbers give you, you know, a sense of kind
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  Speaker 2: of these bigger trends that are that are in place here,
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  Speaker 2: and I think those are sometimes interesting to look at.
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  Speaker 2: Just on some of this stuff. Just take a quick break.
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  Speaker 2: When we return, We've got trivia. Next.
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  Speaker 2: Mike, we got Blackstone back in the news this morning.
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  Speaker 2: Their big Blackstone private credit fund in the business known
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: as b cred cool that's what they call it. They've
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: got about ten percent redemption requests for the fund.
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  Speaker 4: Not cool.
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: They're only going to allow five percent after allowing seven
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: point nine percent in the previous quarter after tapping senior
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: executives to help finance those withdrawals. Previously, and interestingly, the
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: big alternative asset managers are up today. Blackstone's up six percent,
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: KKR is up four and a half, and so like
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: Apollo Global's up two, and so Aris is up five.
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  Speaker 2: Like you go down the list and you're kind of like, Okay,
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  Speaker 2: does this matter or not?
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  Speaker 3: I was gonna say, Chuck, Honestly, if you had been
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: shown this story and it was twenty percent redemption request,
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  Speaker 3: would you have been surprised?
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  Speaker 2: No?
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  Speaker 4: So maybe that's what I mean.
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  Speaker 3: It's not good news when a private credit fund needs
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: to limit investor redemptions. It means that they're basically refusing
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  Speaker 3: liquidity to customers who are concerned about the direction of
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  Speaker 3: the fund or just want their cash back for.
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  Speaker 4: Some reason or another. But the news has.
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  Speaker 3: Been so utterly bleak for all of these companies for
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  Speaker 3: a while that perhaps that's all this is. Oh yeah,
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  Speaker 3: this is not as bad as we thought it maybe
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: could have been. This is we haven't talked about private
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  Speaker 3: credit a whole lot, frankly, this year.
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  Speaker 4: There's been a couple other things.
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  Speaker 2: Probably the last two or three months, yes, since since
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  Speaker 2: Horn moos.
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  Speaker 3: But for those not paying attention to it, which is
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: most because most investors don't even have the opportunity to
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: invest in this sort of thing, let alone see it
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  Speaker 3: in their portfolios. It's been this black box of yes,
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  Speaker 3: strong returns, but during a very strong economy and market
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  Speaker 3: where there haven't been much in the way of bankruptcies.
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  Speaker 3: And now that things have over the last let's call
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  Speaker 3: it eighteen months, been more called into question about the
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  Speaker 3: state of a the loans that they were making, the
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  Speaker 3: credit quality, and be just the future growth of where
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: we're going now investors have been a little bit more
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  Speaker 3: paying attention to this, again very opaque space in the market.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's something where again the question surrounding the
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  Speaker 2: private credit market for the average person, like, wathould the
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: average person care about this? It's a lot of ifs.
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  Speaker 2: Quite honestly, if the private credit market is large enough,
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  Speaker 2: and if a large enough percentage of those loans are problematic,
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  Speaker 2: and if a large enough of those loans that are
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: problematic are held by companies that we interact with on
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: a regular basis, then this couldn't this could you know,
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: cause a real problem for the US economy sometime. Yeah,
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  Speaker 2: we started talking about this after a few you know,
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  Speaker 2: fairly meaningful defaults in September October of last year.
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  Speaker 4: As well as fraud accusations.
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, some defaults and fraud. I mean, some of the
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: stories were kind of wild, and it's something where again,
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: investors have kind of lost focus on this in the
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: last few months because everyone's been talking about the Middle
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: East and oil and so on and so forth. But basically,
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  Speaker 2: what what I had said at different points was, look,
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  Speaker 2: if this doesn't materialize as a problem in twenty twenty
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: six or the first half of twenty seven, then you
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: can probably put this to bed as being any meaningful problem.
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: But we still have to get through that period and
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: see what we get to this point. Yeah, you've got
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: some issues with redemptions and things like that, but there's
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  Speaker 2: nothing that we're seeing in terms of you know, broad
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  Speaker 2: defaults or anything that are happening. You did have some
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  Speaker 2: fairly influential people within the big private asset managers come
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: out and say like, yes, like some of these are
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: going to go very badly because they don't underwrite their
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: loans as well as we do. Whether that's true or not,
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: I don't know, but I think it's still is a
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: place worth watching for the next twelve to thirteen months,
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: just to see how things develop and if there's any
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: more meat on that bone. So far this year, it
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: hasn't been a real driver of anything, but obviously these
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: things can change quickly when it comes to loans and
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: their default rates. Yeah, we saw that, you know previously.
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: I think to further connect the dots, the scenario where
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: it could matter to the average person would be if
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: these companies needed to alter their lending practices because it
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: turned out they weren't so good at underwriting or just
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: couldn't shoe more much more debt because the appetite for
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: it had dried up. Then there would be implications for
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: the everyday person eventually, right, because then somebody else needs
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  Speaker 3: to take the place of who's going to issue that debt.
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  Speaker 3: My guess is that with all of these private credit
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  Speaker 3: funds over the court, the managers, over the course of
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  Speaker 3: the last several months, they've been you know, combing through
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  Speaker 3: their book looking through other issues like the ones that
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: we saw blow up last year, and.
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  Speaker 4: That takes a little while.
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  Speaker 3: I don't know that you would necessarily have found all
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  Speaker 3: the other issues over the course of the last six
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  Speaker 3: months or so, and so I think that exercise is
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: still taking place, and because of the way they operate,
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: we just don't have a lot of clarity as to
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  Speaker 3: what's going on.
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: Peace and axio stocks drive record share of American wealth.
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: According to data from the Federal Reserve and fact Set,
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: Americans now have about thirty three percent of their household
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: assets in the stock market. The previous high that we
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: hit was just shy of thirty percent back in twenty
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: twenty one, in early twenty two. Before that, it was
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: in the mid twenties in the tech bubble. Generally, for
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: the last you know, eighty years, Americans have had anywhere
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: from between ten and twenty percent of their net worth
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: tied up in stocks. And so there are two ways
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  Speaker 2: to interpret this. Number one is this must be bad.
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  Speaker 2: It can't be sustainable possible. Number two is, hey, Americans
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: are seeing you know, greater success in owning, you know,
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: higher percentage of equities, and so broad a participation then
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: can also fuel greater performance because it's more people pile in.
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: Things keep going, and that can continue for a while
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: until eventually it can't, and you know, at that point
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: it becomes problematic. But I'm not convinced in it of
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: itself that this is at the point where it's going
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: to be self correcting. You get there at some point
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: just because people have to own other things. There's only
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: so much money to move in. But I don't know
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: that that point is now, three months from now or
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: three years from now. Yeah.
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: Look, we're once again in the company of only two
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: times in history, twenty twenty one and two thousand. There
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: are a lot of metrics that you can look at
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: this stock market and say, hey, the only time we've
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: been here is twenty twenty twenty one, and neither of
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: them ended particularly well.
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: But that doesn't tell you anything about timing.
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break, Trivia Answer and Wall Street
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: Watch next.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio. Every day,
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Tell you no Foo whoa Street Watch treking the stocks,
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: the data and the headlines driving markets so far today
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: right here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 19:58
  Speaker 5: Well a tech sector now reversing course and calling back
• 20:01
  Speaker 5: earlier losses after Broadcom disappointed with its guidance. Right now,
• 20:05
  Speaker 5: the Dow is up one point seven percent or eight
• 20:10
  Speaker 5: hundred and seventy four points, SMP five hundred up about
• 20:13
  Speaker 5: a quarter percent. The nasdak it was down over one
• 20:16
  Speaker 5: percent earlier, now down only a quarter over percent or
• 20:20
  Speaker 5: sixty six points. Rusted two thousand is up about one
• 20:23
  Speaker 5: point four percent, ten year Treasurreel down two basis points
• 20:27
  Speaker 5: at four point four to six percent, and Oil down
• 20:30
  Speaker 5: three percent, treading right around.
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: Ninety two dollars a barrel.
• 20:34
  Speaker 5: Broadcom down by thirteen percent despite the chip maker reporting
• 20:37
  Speaker 5: a higher revenue in the previous quarter with solid demand
• 20:39
  Speaker 5: for AI chips. However, its outlook failed to impress investors
• 20:44
  Speaker 5: of these. Other semiconductor stocks, including Micron, Super Microcomputer, Intel,
• 20:50
  Speaker 5: and AMD are all seeing sympathy losses. Meanwhile, CrowdStrike down
• 20:54
  Speaker 5: seven percent after posting disappointing second quarter guidance. Elsewhere, Discount
• 20:59
  Speaker 5: Retail five below shedding thirteen percent despite offering as stronger
• 21:04
  Speaker 5: than expected outlook. Petko's stocks Our stock is down by
• 21:09
  Speaker 5: twelve percent after the pet retailers current quarter forecast fell
• 21:13
  Speaker 5: short of street expectations, and Tommy Hillfigger and Calvin Klein
• 21:17
  Speaker 5: parent company PVH tumbling twenty one percent after it reiterated
• 21:22
  Speaker 5: full year earnings guidance. The company's first quarter earnings beat estimates,
• 21:26
  Speaker 5: but its revenue came in line with expectations. I'm Tucker
• 21:31
  Speaker 5: Silva and that is Wall Street Watch. And in the
• 21:33
  Speaker 5: previous segment, we asked you the trivia question who is
• 21:36
  Speaker 5: the last Republican governor of California that will of course
• 21:39
  Speaker 5: beat Arnold Arnold Schwarzenegger.
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: And Patrick from Quincy, Mass is our winner.
• 21:44
  Speaker 5: Today taking home the Financial Exchange Show t shirt. Congrats
• 21:47
  Speaker 5: to Patrick, and we played trivia every day here on
• 21:50
  Speaker 5: the Financial Exchange. See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange
• 21:54
  Speaker 5: Show dot com.
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: Mike, we got our It seems like we got one
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: of these articles published every I don't know, every month
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: or two. So security benefit cuts could average five hundred
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: a month for retirees if trust fund runs dry.
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: Times that's how MathWorks.
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: Yes, we've talked about this at length that basically there's
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: a twenty four percent benefit cut that is on the
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: table if the trust run trust Fund runs dry and
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: Congress does not do anything to change the current law.
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: Mike and I have also spoken at length that the
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: most likely thing Congress does is say, hey, we're not
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: necessarily going to fix this, but we're just going to
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: authorize more debt in order to cover this so that
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: payments aren't reduced.
• 22:39
  Speaker 4: Awesome, I also love when articles like this talk about research.
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: In some states, the benefit cuts would amount to more
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: according to the research. Again, the research is just figuring
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: out the average social security benefit in each state and
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: multiplying it by twenty four percent, which you know is
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: it's research.
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: Is it's like third grader research.
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I guess it's a little more credit than that.
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: It's you know, late middle school, high school, you know,
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: early high school.
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: So this is a genuine threat to retirement. I also
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: find it very unlikely, and I do want to address
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: that that again and again, we're seeing these stories. I
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: wish there were more of them. I wish that people
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: paid more attention to them, because if we don't push
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: lawmakers to do something about it, then I fear the
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: most likely scenario is what we just discussed, which is
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: as screw it, just print the money and we'll add
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: the money to the deficit and you know, mortgage our
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: kids future.
• 23:44
  Speaker 4: But I do think that's the most likely route we
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: go down.
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: And more and.
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: More I see people.
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: Making decisions about their social security futures based on incomplete
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: or information or fears about the fut future. As such,
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: I want to tell folks about an event that we
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: have going on throughout the course of the summer, but
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: in particular on June twenty fifth, down in Quincy, we're
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: going to be joined by Susan Powers, who will be
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: presenting on Social Security claiming strategies for retirement and fie Vasulis,
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: who is a enrolled agent with Medicare and we'll be
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: talking through the Medicare program for retirees. We chose these
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: two topics not only because they do directly relate to
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: each other, but they tend to be two of the
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: most misunderstood and most commonly asked questions that we get
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: as financial advisors at the Armstrong Advisory Group about what
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: they need to do as they get closer to sixty
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: two and then sixty five and then all the way
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: up to seventy. For social Security, if you share those questions,
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: if you're uncertain about how social Security is going to
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: work into your retirement plan and all of the options
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: available to you if you are married, divorced, where all
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: sorts of different caveats as to how this stuff works,
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: the taxation of the benefits, and common missteps that people make.
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: Will be presenting on all of that and more. You
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: do need to register to reserve your spot again. It's Thursday,
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: June twenty fifth at the Marriott and Quincy. It's free
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: to register. We'll be giving this presentation on social security
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: and Medicare. You can go to Armstrong Advisory dot com
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: slash events or call us eight hundred three nine three
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: four zero zero one. But again the date June twenty fifth,
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: five pm, Marriott Quincy, Armstrong Advisory dot com slash Events.
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: your own financial, tax into state planning advisors before making
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: advisory services.
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: Peace from CNBC referencing some redfin data. Nationwide, five point
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: eight percent of all home listings were pulled off the
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: market in April. According to red de, listings were up
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: three point eight percent compared with March. I'm not sure
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: this matters a ton here, based on the fact that overall,
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: again it's a relatively modest shift in the amount of delistings.
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: It is something what I can tell you, and this
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: is data from Mike Simonson, who we've had on the
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: show quite a bit. What looked at the start of
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: this year to be a continued inventory build is now
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: turning into inventory contraction on a nationwide level. Now that's
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: not happening in every state. Obviously, there's different things that
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: are afoot. But the markets that had been seeing the
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: greatest inventory builds down in the southeast and parts of
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: the Southwest, they're stabilizing now because prices have fallen far
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: enough for people to start dipping their toe back in
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: the water, and so supply and demand a pretty well
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: matched And actually you've got inventories contracting throughout the state
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: of Florida now as an example, after building significantly for
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: the last few years.
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: So the pace of d listings is not what concerns me,
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: but I think it does say something about the market
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: that those homeowners are confident enough in their own finances
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: to say, hey, I'm just going to take this off
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: the market rather than accept the price I would prefer
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: not to accept.
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: And what if it's another piece, what if it's the
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: other side of the trade for that that the buyer's
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: just not there. No. What I mean is mortgage rates
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: have gone up about half a percent since the the
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: the bottom maybe not quite half like point four percent,
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: So I don't want to move anymore. What if it's hey,
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: I could have you know, taken this mortgage at you know,
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: six I'm not sure I want to go and get
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: a six and a half percent mortgage. Yeah.
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: Look, I think there's a number of things contributing to
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: what we're seeing as a very weak housing market this year.
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: I don't think oil prices are the main one. I
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: think it's interest rates. Now, you could blame higher interest
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: rates on oil prices and the straight of horm moves,
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: that's fine, But I think I think that the interest
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: rates story is the main story that we should be
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: focusing on when it comes to the housing market. And
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: it doesn't seem to me, at least that it's going
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: to be easily fixable in the short terart Like, Yeah,
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: I have a really tough time now seeing interest rates,
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: for example, down at five percent by next spring. It's
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: not impossible, but it's pretty tough to see.
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: We've talked to like, the only way that I think
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: we get there is if there's a recession. Yeah, and
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: there's nothing pointing to recessionary data right now. Right in
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: my opinion. Let's take a quick break here. When we
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: come back, let's do a little bit of stack Roule's Okay.
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: Real time financial insight as news breaks. The Financial Exchange
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: is life on x Watch the show and follow us
• 28:42
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• 28:44
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• 28:49
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• 28:53
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• 28:56
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• 28:59
  Speaker 1: This is the financial Exchange.
• 29:04
  Speaker 5: If you got questions for Chuck and Mike, well, we're
• 29:08
  Speaker 5: doing the the Old Money Matters mail bag on tomorrow's
• 29:11
  Speaker 5: show right around eleven thirty five. So if you have
• 29:15
  Speaker 5: any questions for Chuck and Mike, email us to the
• 29:20
  Speaker 5: address TFE Show at gmail dot com. Once again that
• 29:24
  Speaker 5: email address, TFE Show at gmail dot com, or you
• 29:29
  Speaker 5: can leave us a voicemail at three three nine three
• 29:32
  Speaker 5: nine nine four triple three.
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: Mike, What do you got for stack Roulettes?
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: I love the you know, very critical data we can
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: get from all sorts of weird places such as dating
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: apps and uh In twenty twenty six, what the dating
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: apps are finding is that people on the sites are
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: narrowing their dating radius, which they attribute to very high
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: gas prices, which I've find just to be one of
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: the funniest ways of tracking things and looking at things
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: as an alternative metric on consumers and their ability to
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: afford different things. Yeah, in twenty twenty six so far,
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: for the last few months, you have seen users of
• 30:17
  Speaker 3: dating apps finding ways to save money by narrowing the
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: radius in which they're willing to look for matches in
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: order to presumably save on gas prices, which of course
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: makes me think of the Meatloaf song. Apparently the one
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: thing that he wouldn't do for love is drive more
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: than thirty miles away for a date.
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: Right man. Like imagine imagine if, like at the end
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: of Goodwill Hunting, like Matt Damon's like, Hey, I had
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: to go see about a girl, but she lived twenty
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: six miles away, so I decided it wasn't quite gonna
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: work out.
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: It'd be really funny if, after all these years, you know,
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: it turned out that's what me loave was talking about.
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: You know, It's it's kind of wild. Netflix aims to
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: use to help viewers manage content overload. Good use of
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: AI that's okay, that's fine.
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: Effective.
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: First of all, this is not even generative AI. He like,
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: I mean, I guess like you could use it if
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: you wanted to. But here's what they're talking about doing. Uh.
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: They're talking about integrating generative AI with natural language processing
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: to help discern what a viewer is in the mood
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: to watch. Okay, it's testing a voice user interface and
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: other experiments that combine a person's viewing preferences and history
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: with other factors like what's trending, helping the platform make
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: a highly tailored recommendation Netflix.
• 31:41
  Speaker 4: You know what you need.
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: You need to grow up and you know, learn something
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: from Google here. I shouldn't have to tell you. You
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: should be able to read all of my metadata, and
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: you know, based on my emails and social media and
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: shopping habits, you should be able to know exactly what
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: type of material I want to consume right now. Talk
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: to you. Gotta go talk to the folks at either
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: Google or Facebook. They know what I want to watch
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: on Netflix right now.
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: You know, sometimes I wonder if I'm the only person
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: who knows what it feels like to be human, Michael,
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: Sometimes I wonder that because you guys both remember Friday
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: nights as a kid, you went over to Blockbuster, uh
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: huh yeah, and you'd spend anywhere from like if your
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: dad could get you out of there quickly enough, ten
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: minutes at a minimum, but more likely you spent like
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: half an hour to forty minutes looking through every aisle
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: to be like, well, is there something that we missed?
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: Is there's something we missed?
• 32:43
  Speaker 5: And then in one movie, like huge Blockbuster movie was
• 32:46
  Speaker 5: It's got the whole wall.
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's all out, So like, I don't know, Like
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: part of being human is learning how to make choices
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: for yourself, and I feel like we're doing ourselves at
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: disservice when we're just like I can't decide what to
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: watch Netflix play Whatever's sad, Like I don't like, come on,
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: like pick your One of my favorite things like about
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: going to Blockbuster, it wasn't just the fact that you
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: had to pick your movie. It's that you had to
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: pick your movie and then you had to bring it
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: up to the front and be judged by like the judgy, you.
• 33:23
  Speaker 4: Know, per teenager.
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's like oh, like yeah, here's my ring, here's
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: my rom com, and they're looking at you like sleepless
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: in Seattle. Huh. It's like, yeah, you better believe it,
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: you know, like, yeah, there was there's so much life
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: that you had to live just within that store, and
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: now it's just, oh, Netflix, I'm feeling flowery today. Can
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: you give me something that bursts with color? It's like, no, like,
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: make your own choices, man, Like, I'm I'm sorry. I
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: don't want like every tech company be like you would
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: like this. No, I'll tell you what I like. That's
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: what I like.
• 33:59
  Speaker 4: I'll take the other side of that one.
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: Having sat in a room with my mother in law
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: and wife for over thirty minutes trying to figure out
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: what in god, that's where I'm at we can do
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: for dinner that Night's I'll let a I figure it out.
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: No, No, Michael, that is life like.
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: It's it's all because if you know how many times
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: I've listed out different, like uh, different culinary options for
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: us and then been like, all right, can you just
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: can you cross one of them off the list here
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: so I can make a decision. Give me approach, I
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: I know, but like, what are you gonna do if
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: you don't have that? Yeah, I won't be able to
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: complain about it. On live radio anymore.
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: Then there's just be the next one. I was gonna
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: be like, well, what seat should we sit in? And
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: and then it's like, well there's an app for that
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: of course.
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: Like by the way, one time that I didn't ask
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: my wife was yesterday and I brought home Indian and
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: she had Indian for lunch.
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: That work out for you, poorly, Yeah, poorly what you
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: should ask? You see, you got it. You gotta have
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: the conversation and man like.
• 35:00
  Speaker 5: Not to mention that's a bold choice to just make
• 35:03
  Speaker 5: be like, yeah, I'm gonna get I'm getting Indian and
• 35:05
  Speaker 5: all of you are gonna eat it.
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: It's it's one thing if you're like it's like, yeah, pizza,
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: I got pizza. You know, we're like, because here's the
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: thing within you, Like.
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: You gotta be like, okay, this is like specifically what
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: I'm getting, Like, you gotta know what everyone wants. Whereas
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: pizza's just like here's a cheese, no veggie you want
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: to find toss and beat lovers in there. It's fine,
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: like there's three food groups pizza.
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: To be clear, Chuck, I know exactly what my wife
• 35:33
  Speaker 3: likes from that Indian restaurant.
• 35:34
  Speaker 4: I I got that part right.
• 35:37
  Speaker 5: You got to be in a mood, though, but you
• 35:39
  Speaker 5: got to know the mood.
• 35:40
  Speaker 3: Yes, true, I was in the mood for Indian food
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: and that was the only matter at the moment.
• 35:43
  Speaker 5: Your wife's mood is the only mood that matters when
• 35:45
  Speaker 5: it comes to dinner.
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: Be honest.
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: Learned that the hard way.
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm I'm anti Netflix telling me what to watch. Uh.
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: Personalized pricing falls into this same bucket of things that
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: I'm not excited about, and law make are scrambling to
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: try and ban it, which I don't think they're going
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: to be successful in doing. But we've been dealing with
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: personalized pricing in a number of different industries for some time.
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: Personalized pricing, think about it like you do airline tickets.
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: We all know they change all of the time. They
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: are not allowed to price these things based on illegal,
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: restricted categories. They can't charge you a higher rate because
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: they think you're old, or white, or you know, any
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: number of different restricted ways of doing it. But they
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: certainly are, under current law allowed to do it based
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: on what they perceive to be your willingness and ability
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: to pay. And guess what all of these places now
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: have the type of data needed to target you from
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: that perspective right now, mainly using it in advertising. Right
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: if I want to go run an ad campaign with
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: Google or Facebook, they won't do it and say hey,
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: here's a group of fifty five year olds, but they
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: will be more than willing to say, hey, this is
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: a targeted ad demo of folks that live in these
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: zip codes and have expressed an interest in retirement and cruises.
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: And so you can very much customize things these days.
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: And where we are heading, I think is complete pricing
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: based on your willingness and ability to pay in all
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: sorts of categories that we're not used to it right now,
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: but you.
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: Know where you know where I think we're heading. Then
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: everyone's gonna have multiple identities to try to game the system. Yeah,
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: you know, you remember in Minority Report when Tom Cruise
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: had to have the other guy's eyeball planted in order
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: to like pretend to be someone else so we could
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: break into the pre crime place. Yeah, that's what it's
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: gonna be. In order to go grocery shopping, you're gonna
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: have to get new eyeballs every weekend in order to
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: get the best grocery prices.
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: Oh god, I mean these digital price tags at the
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: grocery stores. That's where they want to go eventually. They
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: might be telling you they don't, but that's where they
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: want to go eventually. Is instantaneous price changes based on
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: the temperature outside and what they think you're willing to pay.
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: Right, I walked by, Oh, Chuck loves buying oyster crackers.
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: Jack the price up by twenty percent. Yeah, he's gone
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: bring it back down quick break. We're gonna be back
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: tomorrow that we've got a jobs report, and we would
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: love it if you would join us to talk about it.
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: Then