Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 8 Betting Preview

Transcript

NFL Week 8 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: by the one and only Stucky Kendrim Middleton, flying across
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: the globe. From what I've heard right now, experiencing a
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: history of Scotland tour has also I believe she has
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: chugged the barrel of whiskey at this point, and we
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: will get updates come Thursday's episode. But we have all
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: the info that you need to get set for another
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: profitable week. On today's episode, we've got our plant the
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Flag game for week eight, a breakdown of the top storylines,
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: and of course the main event Evans Tuesday primer. You
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: can't start an NFL betting week without it. The curse
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: continues for the Seattle Mariners, Dodgers, blue Jays set for
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: the world series. Make sure you're tracking all of Sean
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Zarrillo's action on all of that on the Action Network app.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: NBA starts tonight.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: We've got you covered with the Best Bets episode over
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: on Buckets. I'm part of that as well as far
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: as the first night of the NBA. Stucky, who you
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: got Tonight? In the National Basketball Association.
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: I don't bet the NBA, so I couldn't die. I
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: didn't even know it was starting tonight. Lo I am.
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: I was told, I see someone has like load management
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: on day one.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Yes, Mitchell Robinson of the New York Knicks. That'll be
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: tomorrow night. I was told, if I was given a
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: debrief before we hit record, that you're not an NBA guy,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: So I figured you'd hit me with that. Do you
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: have one question for me as it pertains to the NBA?
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: Give me your thirty thousand foot I don't care about
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: this league question heading into the season with it starting tonight.
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: Why don't they shorten the season? That's my question?
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: Money, that's insane. There is way too many games.
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: Way too long. But yeah, I mean, look, people, people
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: love that different strokes, different folks teach their own.
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: Well, do you care about everything?
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: I see you out here tweeting about baseball quite often?
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: How do you even have time to be because I
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: assume you're a casual viewer of the game of baseball,
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: but you're on like fifteen podcasts. How are you able
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: to keep up with that sport on a casual level
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: with everything you have going on?
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: Especially this time of year. It's one thing in June.
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I followed most of the year, and
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: it's always I always have it on in the background.
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: It's good background music, so to speak, for when I'm
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: going through all the games. But just comes down to
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: not sleeping. In the fall. We got to college basketball.
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: It's coming up. I'm trying to find time to prepare
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: for that. And I'll be betting that you want to
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: think about that right now. But now I have no
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: questions on them. I couldn't even I'm trying to think, like,
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: what intelligent question I could ask about the NBA. Who's
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: a sleeper in the East. Isn't the East wide open?
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: Like the East?
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: The East is pretty wide open. I would say the
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: Detroit Pistons are a good sleeper in the East. A
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: lot of attention focused on the Knicks and the Calves
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: kind of in a tier at the top, followed by
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: the Orlando Magic. A lot of people expecting big things
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: from them.
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: But what about the Hawks.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: The Hawks could definitely be one of those teams, but
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: they kind of feel like a paper champion. They loaded
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: up in free agency and we've seen them. We see
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: this in the NFL every year, the team that wins
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: the off season is usually the team that falls short
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: of expectation. So there's a lot of hype from the
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: casuals around the Atlanta Hawks, But I think when you
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: get down to brass tacks, they're probably gonna let people down.
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: That was a good question.
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: And don't the rockets out of a point guard or something?
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: Isn't that they don't?
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: They lost their Hey, you know more than you give
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: yourself credit for.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they lost Fred van Fleet before the season started,
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: so they have to turn to a second year guy
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: and read Shepherd, and they added Ky that's right, Kentucky guy.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: Uh So we'll see how that works out. Houston should
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: be really good. I am on OKC. By the way,
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: minus seven and a half track that.
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: Right before we lose all of our followers. We got
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: to get onto the MF.
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: I'm on it. Yeah, let's do it all right.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: Football two games, we saw the Lions slowly dismantle the
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a low scoring game twenty four
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: to nine. Jamiir Gibbs with the fastest touchdown run that
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: we've seen in the last four seasons. Mike Evans broke
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: his collar bone or his clavigal. The Bucks cannot stay
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: healthy to save their lives. Was that a game of
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: the Lions reclaiming the top spot in the NFC? They
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: feel like they are above the pack in terms of
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: that conference.
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: To me, I'd still think the Packers as of today.
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: I mean it was a great effort. I mean that
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: there were so many injuries on both sides that it's
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: like it was hard to make any of that game.
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: I thought Detroit had had a good defensive game plan.
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: A lot of their guys in the secondary stepped up.
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: I thought it was a pretty ugly game overall. Baker
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: Mayfield played awful, probably because I didn't have money betting
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: against him. He missed like some wide open guys and
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: maybe the magic is finally run out because he was
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: going up against a bunch of backups in that secondary.
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: I know that the Bucks that have wide receiver injuries,
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: but that hasn't mattered all year. So yeah, I still
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: need like Detroit has a tough schedule coming down the stretch.
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: It was a great Detroit spot off that loss at
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: home where they're just unbeatable and unbettable against almost so yeah,
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: but the Lions are definitely a player in the NFC.
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: I can't see it with the Bucks. It's like, I
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: don't I don't see it with the defense overall. I mean, look,
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: it's taken Baker Mayfield playing at a top five level,
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: which I'm not sure he can sustain in order for
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: them to basically win a bunch of games in the
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: final minute. So I'm not I don't think that they're
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: a legit real player, especially with all the injuries that
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: they're dealing with in the NFC. And then I mean,
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: I thought overall is I think Seattle is definitely interesting.
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: I mean it's they're playing such a top division, Like
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: who's going to come out of that division? I think
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: maybe San Francisco eventually falls behind just because of all
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: their injuries on the defensive side of the ball, But
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: they're gonna get healthier on offense. But you have the
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: Rams who look really good, and I think the Seahawks
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: with that defense, that defense is elite, that defensive line
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: is elite, their secondary is only going to get healthier.
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: And Sam Darnold that offense are real. I mean they
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: push it downfield off play action as well as anybody
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: in the league. And then you have the Cardinals, who
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: I know that they're two and five, but they basically
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: are in every single game they easily could be four
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: and three or five and two, and they've had a
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: ton of injury, so they're gonna get healthier. So that
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: division is going to be an all out war. But
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: I think you have to take Seattle seriously at this point.
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: And for the Texans, it's the same old story. It's like,
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: did we even get a new offensive coordinator? All the
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: short yardage runs a predictable run. Has it worked for
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: the Texans since like twenty nineteen and their goal line,
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: their short yardage, their early down play calling is so
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: bad and it all comes down to the offensive line,
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: So like, you have to be proactive about that. Get
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: Straud out of the pocket more, don't run on you know,
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: known predictable downs when you know you can't get a
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: push and you know you're gonna lose the line of
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: scrimmage coaching malpractice from Tamiko Ryans. At the end of
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: that second down, run then and then and then the
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: kickoff into the end zone. Then basically the game went
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: to the two minute warning and it was over. So
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: you know, I would love that a team where I'm
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: the head coach, and by head coach, I mean I
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: just do all in game and challenges and clock management.
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: And then I got Mike McDaniel as my offensive coordinator
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: Damiico Ryans as my defensive coordinator. Both great minds and
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: their own aspects maybe not cut out to be the
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: best head coaches. So yeah, Houston looks like they're just
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: you can't take them serious. It's the same exact issues
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: as last week.
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: Didn't store.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: They didn't score an offensive touchdown last night until two
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: minutes left in the game. At that point it was
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: garbage time, so really not able to get into the
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: end zone. As you mentioned Seattle, they're really good with Houston,
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: and I feel like we kind of know what Seattle is.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: I feel pretty confident about our read on what they are.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: I feel like when we look at the Texans from
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: a power rating perspective, they're still graded among the decent
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: teams in the NFL, and I just wonder if we're
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: if we're not overrating them. I mean, this week they're
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: favored against the San Francis GO forty nine ers. What
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: have they shown to warrant that I think that we
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: may I think we might have to just bail on
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: Houston with their inability to score, and C. J. Stroud
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: is just essentially a less effective version of Jared Goff.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: If he's not able to work off of play action,
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: he's lost. He throws off his back foot, he misses
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: receivers over the top, and this seems a disaster. Are
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: we is this a by low or is it we
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: haven't gotten low enough on the Texans. I think that's
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: sort of the story with Houston is do you view
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: them as well, they can't get any worse, they're going
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: to be on the come up, or we should actually
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: go further into dragging their rating down.
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think they're just like a slightly
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: below average team that they have an elite defense, like
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: you could argue they have on paper a top three
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: defense in the league. So that's always gonna keep them
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: up a bit from like really plummeting. Overall. Nico Collins
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: got hurt, that's huge. Otherwise if without him got to
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: I mean, it's early, it's Tuesday, we won't really know
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: much for the next day or two. But without him,
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: it's just like a bunch It's like a bunch of
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: young Iowa state wide receivers on the outside. So yeah,
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: I mean, look, San Francisco that are like just an
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: all out max effort with all of their backups on defense.
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: We got to keep an eye on the injury report
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: with them as always, so I could potentially see myself
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: buying Low. I mean they I need Nico Collins in there.
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: The San Francisco defense, I think it just played up
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: on Monday night. They're without Bosa and without Warner, They're
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: they're not going to be able to get pressure. They're
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: not going to be able to just completely overwhelm an
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: offensive line likes a Seattle Can, which is what you
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: saw against you. So Houston's offensive line won't look as
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: bad against San Francisco, and they'll be playing at home,
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: and that defense is always going to come to play,
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: especially at home, in like pretty much a desperation spot.
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I could see myself potentially buying Houston, but
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: a lot of injuries on San Francisco to keep track
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: of it. Then Nico Collins is a big one for Uston.
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: Need him in there, so we'll see. I haven't played
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: anything there as of yet.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: As for the NFC West, before we move off of
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: them completely, if you look at the odds right now
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: on DraftKings to win the division, every single team you
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: can get it plus money. The Rams are plus one
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: forty five, the forty nine ers are plus one fifty,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Seattles plus two seventy. I think if I had to
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: take a bite of the apple, that would be my bite.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: And the Cardinals are two hundred to one, so that
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: might be worth a dollar if you had to bet
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: it right now, who would you place your money on
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: to win the Division?
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: I mean, to be honest, I would probably just throw
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: some couch change on the Cardinals at two hundred to one.
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: I mean, they're only going to get healthier like they go.
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: I mean, their schedule is not easy, is but like
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: this is the team that's been in every game. But
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: if I the way that it probably plays out, and
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: this is all priced in is I just don't think
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: that San Francisco can overcome their defensive injuries, and the
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: Rams are I think just a little bit above. I
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: know they have a loss to San Francisco already, which
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: is what you have to account for, but I think
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: the Rams, as long as they stay healthy, are cut above.
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: But you know it's I mean, the reason the Cardinals
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: are two one, are two and five, and there's three
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: really good teams significantly ahead of them.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: So like, in order to call them of the remaining
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule, the Cardinals have the toughest rated strength
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: of schedule left among these teams.
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: In the bottom. They're in the twenties in terms of
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: strength of schedule.
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's that there's a reason it's two
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: hundred to one. Like jumping all three of those teams,
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: that's a that's a tall order. So I yeah, maybe
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: just for fun the Cardinals, But I do think the
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: Rams eventually take the division. The value is probably in
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: Seattle though, as you said, but I'm pretty close to
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: market when I when I ran it just now like,
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: but Seattle, their offense is real and their defense they've
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: been playing without guys in the secondary. When they get
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: healthy on the back end, with that defensive front, they're
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: they're definitely a scary team. So yeah, I think the
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: Rams win it, but I think the value is probably
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: with Seattle.
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'm gonna end up placing something on Seattle.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about the ravens Lamar did not practice on Monday.
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: The line indicates that he's gonna play.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: The Ravens are taking on the Bears this week, Ravens
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: off of a bye, Ravens favored by six and a
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: half points. But with a week off, and then you
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: come back on Monday to practice and Lamar Jackson still
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: isn't out there. Jim Harball or John Harball rather never
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: said well, he's definitely going to play in week eight.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: He said that I hope he plays in week eight.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: So there's still a lot of unknown out there. I
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: took a little grab at the plus six and a
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: half on Chicago because there's no guarantee that Lamar is
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: going to be out there. That is a gift from
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: the gods. Lamar is worth about seven points to the spread.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: So yeah, maybe I get caught here with a bad number.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: But if Lamar doesn't play, I'm sitting pretty I put
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: a I put one unit on that. Where do you
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: land on how we read this one early in the
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: week with the Ravens.
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: I completely disagree with you.
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: Are you going head to head? What? Let's go ahead
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: to head?
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: Sure?
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: I mean the Raves gonna be my plant, my flag game.
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: I do think that Lamar plays. I mean it makes
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: sense to give him a couple more days of rest
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: with his hamstring. I mean there's been time where he
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: doesn't practice until Thursday or Friday of a game week,
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: and then he'll play. So like, I don't even think
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: if he doesn't practice today, I don't even think it's
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: a big deal. I mean, there's obviously a chance he
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: doesn't play. So I mean, if you wanted to take
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: the number because of that, that's fine. I'm of the
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: belief that he is going to play. Uh, and then
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: the Ravens are going to be pretty much fully healthy
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: across the board except for their defensive line. They're gonna
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: have everyone back in the secondary line back, the Roquan
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: Smith will be back. They're finally go out there full
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: arsenal like Recard likely they're all their weapons on offense
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: assuming Lamar is back, and they could finally run the
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: offense that has been arguably the best offense the NFL
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: over the past three years. That's big And this is
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: also a fate of the Bears. So I mean, I
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: think that if if Lamar plays and you have John
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: Harball is the best coach in the NFL after the
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: buye since he took over in Baltimore, desperation spot for
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: the Ravens against the Bears team that's won four straight.
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: But if you look at what the Bears have done,
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: and look, they're improving under Ben Johnson, but they've beat
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: the Commanders who shell unit the Raiders, and they got
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: crushed in that game statistically, ra a game by like
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: three arts per play, the Saints and the Cowboys, who
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: were extremely banged up as well, so they've benefited from
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: a lot of injuries. And across those games they went
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: three for four and fourth down their opponents three for
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: eight plus thirteen turnover margin over their past four games.
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: Over that stretch, they're third and EPA per play on defense,
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: but they're twenty fourth in success rate, and if you
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: take away those turnovers, twenty ninth and EPA per play
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: twenty ninth in success rate. It's been a bottom three
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: defense even during the four game winning streak. Said, they've
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: just gotten a lot of turnovers against some bad quarterbacks,
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: so and some pluky turnovers like the Washington fumbles, and
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: but yeat Gino Smith just throwing it right to them
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: multiple times the Saints last week. So I'm not I'm
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: not sold on this Bears defense is still really bad.
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: They also have some injuries. I think this is a
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: spot as long as Lamar plays, and to your point,
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: it's not guaranteed. So if you I can't blame, you're
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: taking the points in saying, well, maybe he doesn't play.
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: I think he's gonna play. I think this closes above seven,
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: and I think the Ravens win this game by twenty plus.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: The Ravens with Lamar have a very rich history against
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: the NFC, and I'm sure that that will be on
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: Evans primer. I can't even get to I can't get
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: to seven with Lamar on this game. So I love
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: the six and a half right now, but I'm not
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: gonna throw. If I love a bet, I'll throw two
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: units on it in the NFL. But I'm gonna wait
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: just in case Lamar plays. Maybe I get a better number,
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: but I probably going to come back in on the Bears.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: Even if Lamar does play. We'll go head to head
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: on that this week. I'll have to come up with
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: some sort of wager.
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: What about the defensive injury? Yeah, maybe like maybe like
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: a hat something like that add to the collection.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: What about the defensive injuries for the Ravens Because it's
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: with Lamar being part of the storyline here, he's going
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: to gobble up all the headlines. But the Ravens have
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: been dealing with a lot of injuries in the secondary
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: and just all around their defense. It looks like they're
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: getting some guys back. Is that what you're seeing as well?
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: Yeah, everyone's back except for some guys on a man
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: of Bouquets out for the year, so that's he's never
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: coming back. But Roquan Smith's coming back. And then their
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: entire secondary, which I think is top two or three
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: in the NFL. Everyone's back, Hamilton Humphrey, Aloozia, So everyone's back.
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: They're gonna have their full compliment on the back end.
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: Basically everyone practice that was available except for Lamar yesterday,
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: So they're gonna be signal efficantly healthier than they have
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: been over the past couple weeks. I just think it's
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: a smash spot for the Ravens. But if Lamar doesn't play,
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: then yeah, you're gonna have a good number. I'm just
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: I just think that he will. But yeah, defense will
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: be much healthier, so it won't be a JV defense
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: like they've been fielding a couple weeks. Before the bye,
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: so I think you get a good effort there.
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: We're about to take a look at Thursday Night Football
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: Vikings at Chargers, but first a word from our friend
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: Kendra as we chat about DraftKings.
• 19:30
  Speaker 5: The Favorites podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sportsbook, where
• 19:33
  Speaker 5: new customers can bet five dollars and get three hundred
• 19:36
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• 19:39
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• 19:42
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• 19:48
  Speaker 5: to get three hundred back and bonus bets.
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: If your bet wins.
• 19:50
  Speaker 5: Plus three months of NBA League Pass, the crown is yours.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: Before we get the Thursday Night football Stucky last week
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: he gave us a dub on Tuesday Night in College.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: Can we keep the good fortune rolling? Should we just
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: double back on Fiu?
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: I do think Ifius brought the small bet at three
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: kensall has been good. But I think that they're kind
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: of peeked out in the market. So I think at
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: plus three FIU, who I think is a little undervalued
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: in the market due to the fact that they played
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: a couple games without a lot of key guys in
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: their secondary. They're now fully healthy. Their depth is really
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: really bad there. So yeah, Panthers in Pitbull Stadium. I
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: think we're at a small bet.
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: Not all right?
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: How about that two weeks in a row, see if
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: we can profit off of the FIU Panthers. Let's look
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: at Thursday Night Football Vikings Chargers.
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: Thursday Night Football.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: Chargers favored by three over under, sitting at forty four
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: and a half. The Vikings quarterback situation still an unknown.
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: Carson Wentz has reverted back to bad. Carson Wentz through
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: two interceptions, one of those was a pick six to
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: the Eagles.
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: But the Chargers haven't been good either. They lost. They've
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: lost three of their last four.
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: Now we have injuries to monitor Joe alt on the
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: Chargers side, Andrew Van Ginkel on the Viking side.
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: I tend to lean towards the Vikings.
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: Here, as frustrating as WinCE is, and we have no
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: idea if JJ McCarthy is any good at football yet.
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: I just think Minnesota is the better team right now.
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: So this will be one of my biggest discrepancies on
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: the board in terms of the numbers that I make,
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: I think red zone issues one for six Minnesota was
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: last week and they had a pick six. It's swinging
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: some people's perception. The only issue is, and the only
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: reason why I haven't fired on this is that this
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: is a by low for both of these teams. So
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: I'm just not ready to slap this with the best
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: bet tag. But where do you land on Thursday night?
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think at three you can only look at Minnesota.
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: I mean, look against the Eagles. They basically mean they
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: give up a fourth down long bomb touchdown and threw
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: a pick six and then they had the I mean,
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: they should have covered that game. They had a touchdown
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: that was called back for holding, they had another touchdown
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: that they was reversed after a review. They were plus
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: twelve percent net success rate over the Eagles down the
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: down basis. They dominated that game. They're just a couple
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: of bombs that the Eagles hit on third and longs
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: and fourth downs, and then Minnesota had a snap over
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: their head at one point and then threw a pick six.
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: And we're in the red zone seven times and had
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: one touchdown, So they were actually really good. The Chargers
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: just got dominated. Then they have their offensive line issues.
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: Maybe Joe All comes back, but are so crippling right
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: now that it's hard to see them winning by margins.
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I think that the only look there is
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: Minnesota plus three or better if this comes. I also
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: think it's a what's this total totals forty four and
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: a half should be like a lower scoring game, I
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: would imagine, So I also don't think, you know, if
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: this is like two and a half ish, If it
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: gets down to the two and a half by the
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: time you're listeners on Thursday, it's not a bad teaser piece.
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: If you want to tease up through three and seven,
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: pair with like Atlanta getting Atlanta down to like minus
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: one and a half against the Dolphins, I don't think
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: that's a bad teaser either. But yeah, I think it's
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: I think it's Minnesota or nothing. The Chargers right now,
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: their offensive line is basically just their offense is broken,
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: and it's hard to see them pulling away from a
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: game Minnesota team with Brian Flores. If you have a
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: beat up offensive line playing that Minnesota defense, it's not
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: going to be a walk in the park. So I
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: think it's Minnesota or nothing.
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: I just psychologically have a really hard time pulling. I
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: love betting teasers. I usually have two going into any
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: weekend in the NFL, and I've been doing really well
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: with them this year, But Thursday night teasers frustrate me
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: to no end, because if you don't hit the Thursday
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: night leg, then you just have this great number sitting
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: out there on Sunday that means absolutely nothing. Some of
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: the others, since you mentioned some possible legs to a
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: teaser forty nine ers up to seven and a half,
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: I like what you said about the Falcons down to one,
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: the Saints up to ten and a half against the
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: beat up Bucks team in the division, and the Cowboys
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: up to nine against the Broncos. That has close game
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: written all over it. Those are some others that I
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: think we could look out there and yeah.
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: That's talk with this a lot of our actioncocust generally speaking,
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: I mean, you want to get the would I would
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: try to get minus I would normally only try to
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: go through three and seven, and that's and then the
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: lower the total the better. Obviously, if you have like
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: a really high total of like fifty five, then you
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: know points getting those six points is in as valuable
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: as say, if you had a total of forty one,
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: So the lower the total the better. And then if
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: you can go through three and seven, which are the
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: two most key numbers when it comes to football betting,
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: that's your ideal long teaser on both ends. Now, there
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: are exceptions to the rule, and everyone has a little
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: bit of art to the to their own teaser making,
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: but those are the general rules that you want to
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: follow for the most part. If you go back and
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: do the math, historically that that's that's the best way
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: to go. But I think my favorite one of the
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: weekend would be charge if the charters are like two
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: and a half, teasing them up, excuse me, if the
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: vikings are at two and a half, teasing them up
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: eight and a half, pairing them with the falcons both
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: totals under forty five points.
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: I tend to limit myself to to two legs. Are
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: you of the same mindset? Don't go past two with
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: the teasers.
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: There's some there, There's an argument to me, and it
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: all comes down to price. So there are times for
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: a three team teaser can make sense, but that's a
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: conversation for another day. But I generally just two team,
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: two teams six point teaser. There was a time when
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: you used to be able to get them, like how
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: you had a place one time where I could get
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: them plus one ten and then for a while two team, yep,
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: then plus one hundred for a while. That is no longer,
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: no longer a thing.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: Minus one twenty five is about the best that I
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: can find out there.
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: These days you.
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: Still get minus one twenties are out there DraftKings, I
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: think it or minus one thirty five. Some of them
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: are dynamic. But yeah, there was a time you can
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: get plus money on them. All good things must come
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: to an end.
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: Well, it is time to plant our flag presented by
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: draft Kings of the Crown is yours?
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: It shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: Okay, you're really planning your flag in that thing.
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: I have a feeling I know where you're going, Stucky.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: Would you like to make another case for the Baltimore
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: Ravens minus the points here?
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: No, my case, it's my team wrong before, But my
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: track record it's pretty good on the Ravens. I think
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: it's just the smashpot Bears have been extremely fortunate with turnovers.
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: If Lamar plays I don't see much resistance that these
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: Bears defense will provide, and I think the Ravens defense
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: will look a lot healthier. Harball will lead off the
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: buy and yeah, I think this has a bloodbath rotten
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: all over it. Assuming Jackson place, that's the big mystery.
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: But I think this line should be above a touchdown
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: if he does well.
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: If you like Stucky's side on this, just know that
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: every time we've gone head to head, it's either been
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: a draw or I've lost.
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: So perhaps well, I definitely do.
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: That's what what do doesn't mean anything got to come
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: through with the win. I like the Steelers Sunday Night
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: Football plus three. That's where I will plant my flag.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: I love this spot for Pittsburgh ten days to prepare
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: Green Bay off of a Western time Zone road game
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: heading over to Pennsylvania. The Packers have not looked dominant
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: as of late. And then of course you have the
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers aspect to this. He's going to be extra
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: dialed in for this one. This is the first time
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: he's ever played against the Green Bay Packers, and I
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: love the way their offense looks.
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: Rogers is pushing the ball down the field all of
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: a sudden.
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: That's the more trustworthy unit for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: you also have Mike Tomlin as a dog one of
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: the more tried and true trends that's out there.
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: Just a lot to like.
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: I like sitting with that plus three in pocket before
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: we get the Sunday.
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't mind this one. I mean it's a
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: classic Tomlin Rauros spot, catching points at home against a
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: good team. Generally speaking, in the past, his teams have
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: performed very well in this spot and Rogers is gonna
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: get rid of the ball quick here neutralized. I mean,
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: we saw that when the Steelers played the Vikings. When
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: the Steelers played the Browns, who have elite pass rushers,
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: Packers do as well. Rogers get rid of the ball
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: very very quick, neutral eye that pass rush, and I
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: think that there'll be some opportunities for the Steelers to
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: move the ball. It's a tough spot, as you mentioned,
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: classic raw Ros spot for Tomlins, so I think taking
• 29:10
  Speaker 3: the three there makes sense.
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: That plus three minus one oh two.
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: Right now on DraftKings as we speak to recap our
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: plant the flag games for this week, we don't have
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: one from Kendra, but we will get an official leg
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: for our two Kings and a Queen parley coming up
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: on Thursday, but our plant.
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: The Flag games for this week.
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: Stucky has the Ravens minus six and a half against Chicago.
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: I have the Steelers plus three against the Green Bay
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: Packers on Sunday night football. Now is time for the
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: main event. No betting week can start without it. Is
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: the primer courtesy of Evan Abrams. Go check out his
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: article at actionnetwork dot com. Evan, Welcome to the show.
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: Are you betting the NBA tonight?
• 29:52
  Speaker 6: I was gonna say Happy NBA Day everybody. I mean
• 29:55
  Speaker 6: a little bit. I'll dabble here and there. It's not
• 29:58
  Speaker 6: my top sport, you know, no question about it. But
• 30:02
  Speaker 6: I know what's going on. I follow here and there.
• 30:05
  Speaker 6: Good friend Matt Moore, you, I'll listen to buckets. We'll
• 30:08
  Speaker 6: get it done.
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's dig into this. I think we'll start with
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: the Ravens Bears. It's been the hottest topic of the
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: show today. Lamar, if he does return, just off of
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: memory for me, has a very good history against the NFC.
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: What do you have on that?
• 30:26
  Speaker 6: Yeah, really good history against the NFC. But to be
• 30:29
  Speaker 6: honest with you, it hasn't been great lately. I mean
• 30:31
  Speaker 6: when you look at the numbers, I believe they've lost
• 30:33
  Speaker 6: a few overall. They lost to Detroit a little while
• 30:37
  Speaker 6: ago as well, I believe, so to me, some of
• 30:40
  Speaker 6: those numbers have kind of come back to the mean
• 30:43
  Speaker 6: a little bit. I mean, he was twenty three and
• 30:45
  Speaker 6: one first twenty four versus NFC since then losing to
• 30:48
  Speaker 6: Philly and Detroit, so numbers are there, but.
• 30:51
  Speaker 4: To me, it's you know, turned a little bit.
• 30:53
  Speaker 6: The one number I was going to look into this
• 30:55
  Speaker 6: week is coaches facing Lamar for the first time, which
• 31:01
  Speaker 6: I will probably have in my article, which is pretty terrible.
• 31:04
  Speaker 6: Usually when they first see him, it's a little bit difficult.
• 31:06
  Speaker 6: Obviously he's got to be out there to play, but
• 31:09
  Speaker 6: a little bit difficult. Nonetheless, I believe he's like, you know,
• 31:12
  Speaker 6: thirty eight and eleven or something like something crazy, So
• 31:15
  Speaker 6: that'll be in there as well.
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: But I think that's one part of it. He's a
• 31:17
  Speaker 4: very very difficult to game plan for.
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: Uh jule Off.
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: The buyer Harbay extra Prep. Do you have that in
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: there this week?
• 31:26
  Speaker 4: Yeah?
• 31:27
  Speaker 6: So if you look at the Ravens off a buyer
• 31:28
  Speaker 6: to Harbaugh fourteen and three straight up in the regular season,
• 31:33
  Speaker 6: three and one in the playoffs, so pretty good. Lamar
• 31:36
  Speaker 6: seven and two in his nine starts off of bye week,
• 31:39
  Speaker 6: so good stuff, but kind of baked into the number
• 31:42
  Speaker 6: a little bit.
• 31:43
  Speaker 4: It's just like ten and seven things like that. Raven
• 31:45
  Speaker 4: is usually a favorite.
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: I will say that the By the way, there's other
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: quarterback news to watch, which is like Bryce Young, Jane Daniels.
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: Am I missing anybody else that's questionable this week?
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: Well, I'm party, but I'm not.
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: Sure Prety, Yeah, the sand Feran news. But I will
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: just say this, if you're thinking about betting the Ravens
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: Bears game, like tomorrow is the big day. That's all
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: I'll say. Now, even if he doesn't practice, Thursday is
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: like a huge day. But today and yesterday as a
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: Ravens fan and knowing just the cadence of their practice
• 32:27
  Speaker 3: and how they handle these things, it doesn't mean anything.
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: Doesn't mean he's gonna play. But I'll just tell you
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: that if he doesn't practice today, it doesn't mean anything.
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: Tomorrow big, Thursday huge. But I've seen Lamar in the
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: past with an injury doesn't practice until Friday, the plays,
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: But tomorrow is meaningless to me. Tomorrow will be the
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: first like read on what's going on. But I digress.
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: You mentioned Andy Dalton. What is Andy Dalton's record as
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: a starter against the spread?
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: Do we have that in the article this week?
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: I could pull it in a few minutes.
• 33:03
  Speaker 6: The way I was looking at this situation was just
• 33:06
  Speaker 6: kind of comparing the two quarterbacks.
• 33:08
  Speaker 4: I mean, at least from one standpoint. I mean, Dalton's
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: been pretty bad since twenty three, one.
• 33:12
  Speaker 6: In five straight up one and five against the spread,
• 33:15
  Speaker 6: losing by about eight points per game on the margin ats.
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: I feel like that's the relevant number two.
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: I'm not that concerned with his career, because it's just
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: that at that point we're stretching into a sample that's
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: not relevant, correct.
• 33:29
  Speaker 6: But to me, the interesting part is, I don't think
• 33:31
  Speaker 6: it's a shock to anybody that's watched both these quarterbacks
• 33:34
  Speaker 6: play like Dalton's been better. He's about seventeen spots better
• 33:38
  Speaker 6: EP eighth per play and eight to ten spots better
• 33:40
  Speaker 6: in success rate versus Bryce Young.
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: In that span.
• 33:43
  Speaker 6: So record showing one thing, but I think Dalton's actually
• 33:47
  Speaker 6: kind of played better and been more consistent. But we
• 33:50
  Speaker 6: will see based off the scenario this week.
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: Right now, that game, by the way, for the Bills.
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: The Bill's favored by seven and a half against the
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers, so the Panthers will be getting a couple
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: of extra points with Bryce Young not playing in that game.
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: We also have a double digit spread in the Colts
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: Titans game. Cults favored by fourteen against the Titans. I'm
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: sure there's value on Tennessee. It doesn't matter, they never
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: come through on it. But multi touchdown favorites in division,
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: what about that?
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: I mean, we just saw the Chiefs do it. Yeah,
• 34:28
  Speaker 4: we just saw the Chiefs do it and they won
• 34:30
  Speaker 4: thirty one nothing.
• 34:30
  Speaker 6: So I wouldn't say you should be running to the
• 34:32
  Speaker 6: window to bet Tennessee. But yeah, like the number over
• 34:36
  Speaker 6: the last twenty years faves and division above ten points,
• 34:39
  Speaker 6: forty five point nine percent, it's a really really small
• 34:43
  Speaker 6: tight spaces. The one thing I will say, November or
• 34:46
  Speaker 6: earlier with those numbers.
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: Forty three percent, forty three.
• 34:49
  Speaker 6: And fifty seven against the spread, so gets you know,
• 34:52
  Speaker 6: it gets a little bit better. But to me, this
• 34:55
  Speaker 6: has got to be a play on a different level.
• 34:57
  Speaker 6: I'll just give you one of my favorite facts from
• 34:59
  Speaker 6: the week, so Daniel Jones knows something about overcoming expectations.
• 35:03
  Speaker 6: Colts six and one straight up this season after entering
• 35:06
  Speaker 6: the year with a regular season win total of just
• 35:08
  Speaker 6: seven and a half. The only recent example dating back
• 35:11
  Speaker 6: to start of the twenty fifteenth season of a team
• 35:13
  Speaker 6: starting six and one with a win total below eight
• 35:17
  Speaker 6: the Giants in twenty twenty two, who started six and one,
• 35:19
  Speaker 6: of course with Daniel Jones. So Daniel Jones done it.
• 35:22
  Speaker 6: Two separate teams, quick starts, low win totals, just overcoming expectations.
• 35:27
  Speaker 6: But yeah, Colts minus fourteen in this game at the moment,
• 35:32
  Speaker 6: just kind of hard to look either way based off
• 35:34
  Speaker 6: of what they've done.
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: Especially Colts ats margin up to.
• 35:37
  Speaker 6: Like eleven points per game, highest we've seen since the
• 35:40
  Speaker 6: twenty one Cardinals.
• 35:41
  Speaker 4: So just a wild start.
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: Colts team total over might be a look with if
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: Simmons is out for the Tennessee Titans, I might play
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: it that way, but we'll see what that looks like. Stucky,
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: you have anything else. That's all of the notes that
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: I had for Evan.
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: Panthers defense has quietly been very very good. I think
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: they're up to like third and success right the run
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: Dye has been dominant. I'm curious to see if Buffalo
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: comes out out of the by and lets Alan cook
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: instead of trying to run, which I think they've been
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: doing a little too much so far this season. So
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: I'm curious to see how the Bills approach their offensive
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: game plan out of the buy let me look, I mean, yeah,
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: I'm I show some value in the Titans. Am I
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: going to get Simmons? Is obviously huge? Am I going
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: to get there? I don't know. I'm tired of losing
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: money on the Titans.
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: That's the best thing I'll say, stuck is the look
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: ahead on that game, like three season look ahead was
• 36:36
  Speaker 4: three and a half.
• 36:38
  Speaker 6: So if you just want to talk about the differences
• 36:40
  Speaker 6: in the two teams, that is one crazy one.
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean that the Colts just keep covering like
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: it's it's pretty insane. I mean the Jets. I show
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: value in the Jets. I mean the Bengals are approaching
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: a touchdown favorite with.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: They're up to seven right now on DraftKings. This was
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: six and a half yesterday.
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: Like now we have to see that's another quarterback. They
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: another quarterback storyline Fields or Tyro Taylor if Tyron Taylor
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: plays and we have to watch Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner.
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: Not having Sauce Gardner might hurt against Chase Nickots. But
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: like Flacco is not a good quarter. I had a
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: good he had a good day, but I mean, he's washed.
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: This is the worst offensive line in the NFL, or
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: one of them arguably the worst defense in the NFL.
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: Like you're gonna tell me the Jets with if it's Tyrod,
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: I mean, I think Rod's an upgrade ever fields at
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: this point, if like especially if Wilson is there an
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: update on Garrett Wilson, I don't know if there is one.
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: He's questionable.
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: Wilson and Taylor play like this is the number rat
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: Like I took the Jets plus seven seven and a
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: half at Tampa, Like this is the number at home
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: against the Bills, and like they're gonna be catching this
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: at Cincinnati with Joe Flacco, no offensive line and zero defense,
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: Like even the Jets might be able to move, Like
• 38:11
  Speaker 3: the Jets should be able to move the ball. Everyone
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: can move the ball, like you can just hand it
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: off and you're gonna be able to like since he
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: has no resistance, but who's playing quarterback. Garrett Wilson. Obviously
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: he's important. Otherwise you're just your thermy to the throw
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: in too, like Josh Reynolds every play, and then Sauce
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: Garner is obviously big for this particular matchup. But this
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: is getting a little rich for Cincinnati, who was like
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: two weeks ago, you know, catching two touchdowns. Now they're
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: favored by a touchdown over team. I get the Jets
• 38:44
  Speaker 3: are winn us, but I mean they've cut their three
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: and four or four. Both these teams are the same
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: against the spread record, so that one's getting a little
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: up there. Man, there's some bad football teams. This just
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: look back at this past weekend. There was like two
• 38:57
  Speaker 3: good games like Vikings Eagles and then the end of
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: the Giants. That game sucked for the entire game quarter
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: and then what was the other like really watchable game
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: like Packers Cardinals, Like that was pretty much it. There's
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: so many bad teams.
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: The one o'clock window was one of the worst that
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: you'll that you'll ever see.
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: Trying to sell like sell the witching iron. He was like, well, okay, well,
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: nothing's one possession game now. So a lot of the
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: injury stuff I have a lot more on Thursday. We'll
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: have some of our Action Network podcast that we record tomorrow.
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: I got to go through a lot of these matchups
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: and injuries. Ones that stuck out to me that I
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: just wrote down were the Jets depending on their injuries,
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: the Ravens that's obviously it's my plant the flag. Possibly
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: the Texans but need injury info. So there's a lot
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: of There's a lot of injury and quarterback info this week,
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: which makes a little tougher, especially this early in the week.
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: So there was no like slam dunk spots or games
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: that I do like your the Steelers call out that
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: was one, But other than that, now I got nothing.
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: What about the Broncos and the Cowboys.
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: These are two teams that I think were I think
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: they're both coming into this game overvalued. It's kind of
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: the opposite of Thursday Night Football, where you have two
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: by lows with the Vikings and the Chargers, and I
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: think those are two sell high teams that I think
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: I want to be on Denver, but I.
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: Don't like betting Denver as a favorite, Like you need
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: bow Knicks to win by margin, and he's just not
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: playing well, like he'll have he has flashes, Like against
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: the pre event of the Giants, he came back. They
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: put up but they had zero points to three quarters
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: against the Giants defense at home. This is the team
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: that barely beat the Jets the week before. So I
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: just don't want to like points them. Am I running
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: to bet the Cowboys? I mean they were offense, Like
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: if you give me three and a half flat, I
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: could only look at the Cowboys just their offense is
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: playing so well. You got the much better quarterback, certain
• 41:04
  Speaker 3: can only take out one of those receivers. But I
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: mean the Cowboys defense is really bad. But there's no
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: reason why, Like bow Knicks is gonna get stops. He
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: stops himself, and like there's no reason why Dak and
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: this offense the way that they're rolling, can't put up
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: enough points to cover. But three is probably the right number,
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: so it should be an entertaining game. But I just
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: don't like blank points, especially you know, over a field
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: goal with with bow Knicks in that offense.
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I might take the cow I think
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys are a perfect teaser leg for this week.
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: I might just play it that way. Evan, thanks so much.
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: That's gonna do it for today's episode special thanks to
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: David Payne and Gifford Gould, our producers. Phenomenal stuff by Stuckey,
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: and we will get a pick from Kendrick who's in Scotland.
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: We'll get a pick from her. On Thursday, we'll do
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: our official Week eight best Bets, unveiling this week's two
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: Kings and a Queen parlay. We'll see you next time
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: here on the Favorites presented by DraftKings, We're out.
• 42:18
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• 42:22
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• 42:27
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