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Thursday BEST BETS | This Cannot Continue | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB & WNBA | 5/14/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm, man, a hole in
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: your checks, black coffee on the felt.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: Man, you look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three team Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips like.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: They made you this man. But don't you go quiet.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the floor. Your name steal mean
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: something in somebody for show. Put the glass.
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: Down, baby, look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 4: No, hold on, hold on, nothing nice now, hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 4: hold on and me.
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: But it all get the crown. Hold on, hold on
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: and stay with me.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: Now what's up?
• 1:27
  Speaker 5: Everybody is sewed Back with you with Toadstool Sports for Thursday,
• 1:32
  Speaker 5: May fourteenth. H Yeah, the run that we're on, it's
• 1:36
  Speaker 5: not sustainable, man, I'm gonna tell you that right now.
• 1:39
  Speaker 5: Two and allo on the show yesterday. We're now seventy three,
• 1:42
  Speaker 5: thirty four and five over the last forty days. It's
• 1:46
  Speaker 5: been an insane month. I think we're on a sixteen
• 1:49
  Speaker 5: and one run. It might be seventeen and one. Over
• 1:51
  Speaker 5: the last week or so.
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: We had one.
• 1:54
  Speaker 5: Losing play on Saturday on one of the MLB totals
• 1:57
  Speaker 5: and that was it. Today I'm gonna have replays two
• 2:01
  Speaker 5: MLB Totals one WNBA play.
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: We're gonna be back at the WNBA NHL.
• 2:09
  Speaker 5: I have an opinion, but I don't know if I
• 2:11
  Speaker 5: like it enough for it to be a play.
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: There's no NBA tonight, and it's.
• 2:15
  Speaker 5: A somewhat shorter MLB board as it is getaway day
• 2:20
  Speaker 5: and it is gonna be rivalry weekend in the MLB,
• 2:23
  Speaker 5: where I mentioned that the other day, like the series
• 2:26
  Speaker 5: over the weekend or the interleague rivalry series for the
• 2:29
  Speaker 5: most part in the in Major League Baseball, so there
• 2:32
  Speaker 5: could be some look ahead spots today. Teams are some
• 2:36
  Speaker 5: teams are playing in the afternoon today because they gotta
• 2:38
  Speaker 5: travel whatever.
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: Anyway, the two and oh yesterday easy wins.
• 2:42
  Speaker 5: We won with the Miami Marlins on the money line
• 2:46
  Speaker 5: pretty much, not really ever in doubt.
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: On that one.
• 2:48
  Speaker 5: And then the under in San Diego and Milwaukee also
• 2:52
  Speaker 5: is pretty easy.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: That was a one nothing.
• 2:55
  Speaker 5: I think Milwaukee lead and I think they wound up
• 2:57
  Speaker 5: losing three to one. But once San Diego has a
• 3:00
  Speaker 5: three to one lead and you're in the eighth, ninth
• 3:02
  Speaker 5: inning and you're like, yeah, san Diego's bullpen with Mason
• 3:06
  Speaker 5: Miller and all their best relievers available, Like yeah, They're
• 3:08
  Speaker 5: not gonna be any more runs scored in this game,
• 3:11
  Speaker 5: and that is what happened.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: So yeah, in Miami, I think one.
• 3:15
  Speaker 5: I don't even know what the final was, nine to five,
• 3:17
  Speaker 5: maybe working nine to five.
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: All right, yeah, let's get into this.
• 3:23
  Speaker 5: We're gonna have one afternoon baseball play one is in
• 3:25
  Speaker 5: the night slate, and then WNBA we're gonna be back
• 3:30
  Speaker 5: involved in that crap. Tyson, what's up?
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: Thank you? Yes, Kyle? What's up next? For hanging out everybody?
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: All right?
• 3:38
  Speaker 5: Afternoon baseball Colorado at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh got destroyed yesterday. I
• 3:43
  Speaker 5: mean Mitch Keller, I don't know, he just didn't have
• 3:46
  Speaker 5: his best stuff. They lost ten to four yesterday. These
• 3:50
  Speaker 5: teams have split the series so far, so I kind
• 3:52
  Speaker 5: of expect both teams will show up here. Of course,
• 3:56
  Speaker 5: we have rivalry weekend coming up, so Pittsburgh is going
• 3:58
  Speaker 5: to play Philadelphia. Colorado is not playing an interleague series.
• 4:03
  Speaker 5: They don't have a rivalry. Man, they're playing Arizona. So
• 4:08
  Speaker 5: two National League expansion teams from the nineties playing each other.
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: Whatever.
• 4:13
  Speaker 5: Anyway, this game bullpen usage, I gotta figure out a
• 4:16
  Speaker 5: way to do these.
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: Handicaps faster man like on the show. I don't know.
• 4:21
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh used three relief pitchers yesterday. Colorado also used three.
• 4:26
  Speaker 5: These bullpens are both in the mediocre range, Colorado eighteenth,
• 4:30
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh nineteenth.
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: So do with that information what you want to.
• 4:35
  Speaker 5: I guess, hitting wise, Pittsburgh's actually been pretty good eighth,
• 4:39
  Speaker 5: Colorado not that far behind at tenth. These are arranged
• 4:42
  Speaker 5: by whip and ops, by the way, that's how I
• 4:45
  Speaker 5: do it. Chase Donander's pitching for Colorado. He's pretty under
• 4:50
  Speaker 5: the radar, man. I mean, he's a guy that Colorado
• 4:53
  Speaker 5: brought up into onto the major league roster.
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: I think when he was like twenty two, maybe they
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: rushed him up.
• 4:59
  Speaker 5: But he does actually look pretty good this year, although
• 5:01
  Speaker 5: some of this has been pitching out of the bullpen.
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: A lot of it has been out of the bullpen.
• 5:06
  Speaker 5: But he's got a three point three five ERA one
• 5:08
  Speaker 5: point one to nine whip. He's been good on the
• 5:10
  Speaker 5: road two point six y three RA, which makes sense
• 5:13
  Speaker 5: you take him away from coursefield, he pitches better. He's
• 5:17
  Speaker 5: made a bunch of like starter starters workload appearances. At
• 5:22
  Speaker 5: least like his last five outings, he's gone at least
• 5:24
  Speaker 5: five and a third innings in all of them, and
• 5:26
  Speaker 5: he only allowed more than the two earned runs and
• 5:28
  Speaker 5: one of them and it was against the Braves in
• 5:31
  Speaker 5: course field. So he's pitching pretty well right now. Nobody's
• 5:35
  Speaker 5: really talking about it. So I really don't mind Donander
• 5:39
  Speaker 5: here right now. His overall number, his numbers this month,
• 5:42
  Speaker 5: and those two starts are a little bit concerning though,
• 5:44
  Speaker 5: because even though in his most recent start he did
• 5:47
  Speaker 5: hold Philadelphia to two earned runs, he walked five guys.
• 5:50
  Speaker 5: So he has an eight eight strikeout walk ratio in
• 5:53
  Speaker 5: two starts in May, which does worry me a little bit. Overall,
• 5:56
  Speaker 5: forty seven to seventeen ratio on the season not horrible,
• 6:01
  Speaker 5: and thirty four hits a lot of forty three innings. Yeah,
• 6:04
  Speaker 5: I mean, I think he's definitely capable of pitching well
• 6:07
  Speaker 5: in this one.
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh has never seen him before outside.
• 6:10
  Speaker 5: Of Ozoon, who's zero for six with two strikeouts off him.
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: So, yeah, Dollander, he's unfamiliar to Pittsburgh.
• 6:17
  Speaker 5: Uh. Usually that's a little bit of an advantage to
• 6:19
  Speaker 5: a pitcher, at least if they're a talented pitcher and
• 6:22
  Speaker 5: the opposing offense has to spend time trying to figure
• 6:26
  Speaker 5: him out the first couple of times they see him.
• 6:29
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh is going with a bullpen game because they have
• 6:31
  Speaker 5: Mason Montgomery listed as a starter. He's been okay two
• 6:35
  Speaker 5: point eight seven e RA one point two eight WHIP,
• 6:38
  Speaker 5: but he's not gonna pitch that long here. He does
• 6:40
  Speaker 5: pitch better at home one point three five ERA, but again,
• 6:45
  Speaker 5: he hasn't gone deeper than one in two thirds innings
• 6:49
  Speaker 5: in any of his outings this season, so I don't
• 6:51
  Speaker 5: expect him to go more than two innings max here.
• 6:54
  Speaker 5: So this is going to be a bullpen game for
• 6:56
  Speaker 5: the Pirates here. I'm gonna lean to Colorado. I prefer
• 7:00
  Speaker 5: Dollander as an actual starter over what Pittsburgh is doing here.
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: You might want to make it an action play. I
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: consider putting this on my card.
• 7:09
  Speaker 5: By the way, I don't think I'm gonna quite get
• 7:11
  Speaker 5: there with this one, but I like Colorado. Action might
• 7:16
  Speaker 5: make sense because Pitts excuse a. Colorado has used openers
• 7:19
  Speaker 5: in front of Dollander a few times this year, so
• 7:21
  Speaker 5: they might do that again. They might decide to have
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: some guy pitch the first inning and then and go
• 7:26
  Speaker 5: to Dollander.
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: After that. I don't know if they're gonna do that
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: or not.
• 7:29
  Speaker 5: But if you actually want the action to ride, knowing
• 7:33
  Speaker 5: that Donander is probably gonna give you five six innings here,
• 7:37
  Speaker 5: action makes sense on this one. Colorado would be my opinion,
• 7:41
  Speaker 5: seventy three percent of tickets on Pittsburgh, fifty five percent
• 7:44
  Speaker 5: of the cash on Colorado. So the money seems like
• 7:47
  Speaker 5: it is agreeing with me on this. Pittsburgh is around
• 7:50
  Speaker 5: minus one sixty five or so on the money line.
• 7:53
  Speaker 5: I would make it a split bet, probably partially on
• 7:57
  Speaker 5: the puck line, oh god, partially on the run line,
• 8:01
  Speaker 5: partially on the money line, is what I would do,
• 8:03
  Speaker 5: so that if Colorado loses by one, you'll split the bet.
• 8:07
  Speaker 5: That's the way I would play that game. I like
• 8:09
  Speaker 5: Colorado and that one. All right, Hindian, what's up? Thanks
• 8:13
  Speaker 5: for hanging out, Josh, what's up? Thanks for hanging out everybody.
• 8:17
  Speaker 5: Good morning to everybody. Next game up is going to
• 8:19
  Speaker 5: be one of my plays. We have an afternoon baseball
• 8:22
  Speaker 5: play here, all right, Washington, Cincinnati. I know this does
• 8:33
  Speaker 5: not look right, but we're gonna go with the first
• 8:36
  Speaker 5: five inning under in this game under four. I saw
• 8:40
  Speaker 5: at minus one oh five out there at the Roman
• 8:43
  Speaker 5: Emperor's Book, you know what I mean.
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: I saw that the line was kind of all over
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: the place.
• 8:48
  Speaker 5: Some books are trying to crush you by giving you
• 8:50
  Speaker 5: a three and a half and you pay less for it.
• 8:53
  Speaker 5: But there are a few books out there that I
• 8:55
  Speaker 5: have a four, which is why I always say you
• 8:57
  Speaker 5: gotta have as many books available to you as pot possible,
• 9:00
  Speaker 5: man I have. I want nothing to do with the
• 9:03
  Speaker 5: bullpens here, so we're gonna take the bullpens out of
• 9:05
  Speaker 5: this equation. These bullpens are horrible, so we're going only
• 9:09
  Speaker 5: first five under here. Cincinnati u's four relief pitchers. Yesterday
• 9:13
  Speaker 5: Washington used five. No, nothing to do with that. Take
• 9:19
  Speaker 5: them out of the equation. Cincinnati twenty eighth in bullpen,
• 9:23
  Speaker 5: Washington twenty third.
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: Bad stuff.
• 9:25
  Speaker 5: Again, I don't want to touch those those bullpens. Washington
• 9:30
  Speaker 5: is sixth in offense, but they're the better of the
• 9:34
  Speaker 5: two offenses by far. But they're also facing the better
• 9:37
  Speaker 5: starting pitcher here, so I like that. So I think
• 9:39
  Speaker 5: the Reds having a good starting pitcher here can shut
• 9:42
  Speaker 5: down Washington's offense enough. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has not been good offensively.
• 9:47
  Speaker 5: Twenty fifth, which I think might help out washington Sided things,
• 9:51
  Speaker 5: even though I actually like Washington's starting pitcher as well,
• 9:54
  Speaker 5: Foster Griffin. I don't know how he's doing what he's
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: doing this year, but at this point, I don't think
• 10:00
  Speaker 5: really argue much with it. Two point one two ERA
• 10:02
  Speaker 5: one point zero three whip from him. He's just, you know,
• 10:06
  Speaker 5: I don't know what's going on here. He's thirty years
• 10:08
  Speaker 5: old and he's having by far his best season.
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: Makes no sense.
• 10:13
  Speaker 5: Sure he's probably gonna regress at some point, but I'm
• 10:15
  Speaker 5: not sure that it's gonna happen right now. He has
• 10:18
  Speaker 5: exactly the same home in Roady Ray. I know this
• 10:22
  Speaker 5: is a hitter friendly ballpark here, but Washington's pitching staff
• 10:25
  Speaker 5: has gotten absolutely blasted at home this year, and he
• 10:29
  Speaker 5: has not been one of the guys that has had
• 10:31
  Speaker 5: that problem.
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: So I'm fine with that. He's been good recently too.
• 10:34
  Speaker 5: He's allowed one or run in his last three outings
• 10:37
  Speaker 5: this month. He's only allowed that one in his last
• 10:40
  Speaker 5: outing against Miami. He has twenty strikeouts and seven walks
• 10:45
  Speaker 5: over those last three starts, and he's gone at least
• 10:48
  Speaker 5: six innings in every outing. He's gone a total of
• 10:52
  Speaker 5: twenty innings, only allowing nine hits over that span.
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: Granted it was against the White Sox Miami. Those are
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: not good offenses.
• 10:59
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee, their offense has struggled a little bit too, But
• 11:03
  Speaker 5: the Reds offense is no good either, So I like this.
• 11:06
  Speaker 5: He's pitching pretty well right now. His strikeout walk ratio
• 11:10
  Speaker 5: maybe slightly concerning, but not too bad. Forty two strikeouts,
• 11:13
  Speaker 5: fifteen walks on the season, thirty three hits, a lot
• 11:16
  Speaker 5: of forty six to two thirds innings.
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: He is not getting hit too hard.
• 11:21
  Speaker 5: He does have, you know, maybe a few too many
• 11:23
  Speaker 5: fly balls in here, and this is a home run
• 11:26
  Speaker 5: friendly ballpark, but I'm still gonna go with this here.
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: And he's unfamiliar to the Reds.
• 11:32
  Speaker 5: The Reds have never faced him before, so he might
• 11:35
  Speaker 5: have a little bit of an extra advantage just because
• 11:37
  Speaker 5: they've never seen him before, even though I know he's
• 11:39
  Speaker 5: a little bit older. He's been seen a little bit.
• 11:42
  Speaker 5: But really there's not that much like footage on this guy.
• 11:45
  Speaker 5: Because he had made no starts in his major league
• 11:48
  Speaker 5: career until this year, and he hadn't pitched in the
• 11:50
  Speaker 5: major since twenty twenty two.
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: This is some crazy stuff.
• 11:54
  Speaker 5: That's going on with with Griffin Man. But good for him,
• 11:58
  Speaker 5: and we're gonna do it. First five under. I almost
• 12:02
  Speaker 5: gave out the first five under in his previous start
• 12:05
  Speaker 5: as a play and I decided not to, and.
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: I believe it was a winner.
• 12:08
  Speaker 5: But also the other side of this is that we
• 12:10
  Speaker 5: get Chase Burns pitching for the Reds here, and he
• 12:14
  Speaker 5: is their best starting pitcher two point one one ERA,
• 12:17
  Speaker 5: one point zero four whip. Some of the handicappers will
• 12:20
  Speaker 5: tell you that he's overrated, that he gets over valued
• 12:24
  Speaker 5: in the market, but I mean, come on, man, I've
• 12:27
  Speaker 5: given you guys multiple plays on him this year, and
• 12:29
  Speaker 5: they've been winners for the most part. I don't know
• 12:32
  Speaker 5: how many of these games we've lost with Burns. I
• 12:34
  Speaker 5: can only remember the winners we won with him. The
• 12:36
  Speaker 5: last time he pitched, we won, I think really early
• 12:39
  Speaker 5: in the season with them.
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: I don't know when else I've given out a play
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: on him. Burns. He is a little bit worse at home.
• 12:44
  Speaker 5: It's a hitter friendly ballpark, but still that amounts to
• 12:47
  Speaker 5: a two point five to four homeye RA, which is
• 12:50
  Speaker 5: not bad at all. Obviously, he's been pitching really well
• 12:53
  Speaker 5: as well. He's allowed no more than tour in runs
• 12:56
  Speaker 5: in his last five outings. He's only allowed more than
• 12:58
  Speaker 5: two once all season. It was here at home in
• 13:02
  Speaker 5: a kind of outlier of an outing against Anaheim. Overall,
• 13:06
  Speaker 5: he's got forty eight strikeouts, sixteen walks is a little
• 13:09
  Speaker 5: bit iffy. That's too many walks, But the rest of
• 13:11
  Speaker 5: his numbers are pretty good. Thirty three hits allout of
• 13:14
  Speaker 5: forty seven innings pitched. Yeah, and I don't know what
• 13:19
  Speaker 5: else I have to say about it, but yeah, this month,
• 13:21
  Speaker 5: he's gone thirteen innings, he's only allowed seven hits. Nine
• 13:24
  Speaker 5: strikeouts is a little bit low for him, so that's
• 13:26
  Speaker 5: maybe a little concerning. And he walked three guys in
• 13:28
  Speaker 5: his last outing against Houston, has four walks on the month.
• 13:32
  Speaker 5: But I'm not too concerned by that. And as numbers
• 13:35
  Speaker 5: against Washington are fine, they only have sixteen at bats
• 13:38
  Speaker 5: against him, which is not a lot. Only six of
• 13:40
  Speaker 5: their hitters have faced him seven strikeouts, one walk, two
• 13:44
  Speaker 5: fifty average six sixty nine ops. I think we can
• 13:48
  Speaker 5: do it. I think we can go with it. We're
• 13:50
  Speaker 5: gonna go first five under Washington. Cincinnati try to find
• 13:55
  Speaker 5: a four out there that would be my recommendation. Money
• 13:59
  Speaker 5: looks like it's a agreen with this sixty percent of
• 14:01
  Speaker 5: tickets seventy nine percent of the cash on the under.
• 14:04
  Speaker 5: Full game totals around eight eight and a half, but
• 14:07
  Speaker 5: again I would not go full game. I do not
• 14:09
  Speaker 5: want these bullpens to factor into this. The money is
• 14:13
  Speaker 5: also hitting Washington, which is interesting, which actually kind of
• 14:17
  Speaker 5: is a good indicator for the under because I think
• 14:20
  Speaker 5: Griffin is the bigger question mark here over Burns, and
• 14:24
  Speaker 5: the fact that Washington is getting seventy three percent of
• 14:26
  Speaker 5: the cash on top of fifty two percent of the tickets,
• 14:29
  Speaker 5: that kind of tells you that the professional money seems
• 14:33
  Speaker 5: like it's back in Griffin at least to pitch decently here.
• 14:36
  Speaker 5: So that seems to coincide with the under here as well.
• 14:42
  Speaker 5: First five under at least minus won fifty or so,
• 14:45
  Speaker 5: minus one fifty and minus one fifty five or so,
• 14:48
  Speaker 5: I guess is what the money line is on Cincinnati here,
• 14:52
  Speaker 5: But we're not going with the side in that game.
• 14:54
  Speaker 5: First five unders to play in that one. I never
• 15:00
  Speaker 5: play these fucking first inning bets. I never do that. No,
• 15:05
  Speaker 5: these guys that do the nerfy, the yur fie no
• 15:09
  Speaker 5: fucking way. I'm not gonna limit myself to just a
• 15:13
  Speaker 5: whether or not a flu cappens in one inning. No,
• 15:19
  Speaker 5: I would not go full game over in that game either.
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: First five on.
• 15:24
  Speaker 5: If I go first five under, I'm not recommending it
• 15:26
  Speaker 5: over in the full game.
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: I mean, those things just they clash with each other.
• 15:31
  Speaker 5: It's just that I think the biggest advantage to playing
• 15:33
  Speaker 5: the under is to cut the bullpens out. But no,
• 15:36
  Speaker 5: I would not go over in that game.
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 15:40
  Speaker 5: The starting pitching matchup I think is too good. It's
• 15:43
  Speaker 5: it's good enough to hold that total down Detroit and
• 15:47
  Speaker 5: the Mets. Here, Mets are on the verge of sweeping Detroit. Uh,
• 15:53
  Speaker 5: this is how bad the American League is. That the Mets,
• 15:56
  Speaker 5: who have been playing atrocious baseball, they're about to swing Detroit. Although,
• 16:01
  Speaker 5: of course we know Detroit has some major problems, you
• 16:05
  Speaker 5: know from Bervaldez has been suspended. He just came back
• 16:09
  Speaker 5: SCHOOLBLS injured. No idea if he's even coming back. Bad
• 16:13
  Speaker 5: bad times for Detroit. But they're gonna at least show
• 16:16
  Speaker 5: up because they're trying to avoid a sweep peer. The
• 16:19
  Speaker 5: Mets have a huge series on deck against the Yankees
• 16:22
  Speaker 5: Subway series over the weekend rivalry week and Detroit only
• 16:27
  Speaker 5: plays Toronto. Not much of a rivalry there, and not
• 16:29
  Speaker 5: an interleague series either. By the way, Washington is playing
• 16:33
  Speaker 5: Baltimore in the rivalry weekend in Cincinnati's playing Cleveland, which
• 16:38
  Speaker 5: makes sense. Those are the interleague geographic rivals. Anyway, this game,
• 16:43
  Speaker 5: the Mets did use a decent amount of their bullpen yesterday,
• 16:47
  Speaker 5: four relief pitchers, Detroit only three. The Mets do have
• 16:54
  Speaker 5: the better bullpen generally. They have the tenth ranked bullpen
• 16:58
  Speaker 5: Detroit twenty first, although Detroit's bullpen Eray is not really
• 17:02
  Speaker 5: that bad, so they're probably a little bit better than that.
• 17:05
  Speaker 5: Hitting wise, Detroit is the better team. They're eleventh. The
• 17:08
  Speaker 5: Mets have been got awful. The Mets are dead last
• 17:11
  Speaker 5: thirtieth in offense. Detroit has a chance in this game,
• 17:15
  Speaker 5: and I mean situationally, the situation definitely screams Detroit here.
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: With the Mets.
• 17:20
  Speaker 5: Already having won this series and probably looking ahead to
• 17:23
  Speaker 5: the Yankees, Detroit can get it done. But the problem
• 17:26
  Speaker 5: with this is the Mets have their best starting pitcher
• 17:29
  Speaker 5: pitching here, but Detroit has Keeter Montero pitching he's actually
• 17:32
  Speaker 5: been good. Three point one eightyra point nine to six
• 17:36
  Speaker 5: whip that's some pretty good stuff. His home road splits
• 17:39
  Speaker 5: are basically non existent, so he's good either way. He's
• 17:43
  Speaker 5: given up two urned runs and two starts combined this month.
• 17:46
  Speaker 5: That's pretty good, but a strikeout rate is low six
• 17:49
  Speaker 5: to three strikeout walk ratio this month, but not along
• 17:53
  Speaker 5: a lot of hits. He's got twenty nine strikeouts on
• 17:55
  Speaker 5: the season in thirty nine to two thirds innings, eight
• 17:58
  Speaker 5: walks and thirty hits the though, so that's pretty good.
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: He's not putting guys on base.
• 18:04
  Speaker 5: He's an extreme fly ball pitcher, which I don't like
• 18:07
  Speaker 5: to see, but you know, it only matters really when
• 18:10
  Speaker 5: you're in one of these home run cond some ballparks,
• 18:12
  Speaker 5: and this is not really one of them, so or
• 18:16
  Speaker 5: it's not one of them, I should say. He's also
• 18:19
  Speaker 5: unfamiliar to the Mets. They only have four hitters I've
• 18:21
  Speaker 5: ever faced him. They only have nine at bats against him.
• 18:24
  Speaker 5: Bob Baschett has the only extra base hit, a double.
• 18:27
  Speaker 5: They have three strikeouts, one walk. They're two for nine
• 18:30
  Speaker 5: two twenty two average six thirty three ops.
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: So Montero he's got a good match up here.
• 18:38
  Speaker 5: I think he's pretty unfamiliar to the Mets, and his
• 18:40
  Speaker 5: numbers against the guys that have hit against them are
• 18:43
  Speaker 5: pretty good. But again, Nolan McClain is pitching for the Mets,
• 18:46
  Speaker 5: so I'm not calling for him to have a bad
• 18:48
  Speaker 5: game or anything like that. He's been really good at
• 18:50
  Speaker 5: two point seven to eighty RA point nine whip, a
• 18:54
  Speaker 5: little bit worse at home three point one to three
• 18:57
  Speaker 5: home y RA, which is still good. He had one
• 19:00
  Speaker 5: slightly rough outing this month, but still has a twelve
• 19:03
  Speaker 5: to two strike out walk ratio this month, even though
• 19:05
  Speaker 5: he had a start get cut short against Anaheim and
• 19:08
  Speaker 5: only went four innings, but he's still allowed no more
• 19:11
  Speaker 5: than three or in runs in any start this season.
• 19:13
  Speaker 5: He's allowed two or few, you know, all but two
• 19:15
  Speaker 5: of them. Fifty seven to twelve strike out walk ratio,
• 19:19
  Speaker 5: twenty nine hits, allowed him forty five and a third
• 19:21
  Speaker 5: innings pitched. All these numbers across the board very very good.
• 19:26
  Speaker 5: And Detroit has twelve at bats against him. He actually
• 19:30
  Speaker 5: pitched against Detroit last year. I think mclan I believe
• 19:34
  Speaker 5: he did pitch last year. Yeah, he made eight starts
• 19:36
  Speaker 5: last year. One of them was actually against Detroit. They
• 19:39
  Speaker 5: have twelve at bats against him, no extra base hits,
• 19:42
  Speaker 5: three strikeouts, two walks, two fifty average six h seven ops.
• 19:47
  Speaker 5: So he did fine in that start last year. Obviously,
• 19:50
  Speaker 5: I think he will do well again here. I think
• 19:53
  Speaker 5: both starting pitchers set up to do pretty well here.
• 19:56
  Speaker 5: So to me, this does look like an under. Maybe
• 19:59
  Speaker 5: a five inning under makes sense here. This one is
• 20:03
  Speaker 5: not on my card, you know, I I don't know.
• 20:06
  Speaker 5: I mean, the totals a bit lower. If you go
• 20:09
  Speaker 5: full game, you're getting under seven basically, is what you're
• 20:12
  Speaker 5: doing with this the under seven and a half. You
• 20:14
  Speaker 5: might be able to find a minus one twenty out there. Again,
• 20:17
  Speaker 5: if you have enough books at your disposal. The money
• 20:20
  Speaker 5: is hitting the under sixty four percent of tickets eighty
• 20:23
  Speaker 5: five percent of the cash on the under. That is
• 20:26
  Speaker 5: probably my strongest opinion on this game would be to
• 20:29
  Speaker 5: go under. I worry a little bit about the bullpens.
• 20:32
  Speaker 5: I mean, you could go first five innings under, but
• 20:34
  Speaker 5: then you're looking at maybe at three three and a half.
• 20:37
  Speaker 5: But you know, I would still lean that way towards
• 20:40
  Speaker 5: going with an under in this game. In some capacity.
• 20:43
  Speaker 5: I lean to Detroit as well.
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: Slightly.
• 20:45
  Speaker 5: I think that if like situationally, that's gonna factor into
• 20:49
  Speaker 5: this game a bit, fifty two percent tickets fifty four
• 20:52
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash on Detroit, and if Montero can
• 20:55
  Speaker 5: pitch well enough, he could keep this game close. But
• 20:57
  Speaker 5: then again, Detroit does not have the better bawl pen,
• 21:00
  Speaker 5: so that's kind of the concern with that.
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: Like, you know, you could go first.
• 21:04
  Speaker 5: I don't know, man first five under or excuse me,
• 21:08
  Speaker 5: first five on Detroit makes some sense, but you know
• 21:12
  Speaker 5: you really are You're trying to call for Detroit to
• 21:14
  Speaker 5: actually win the game here though, basically or be ahead
• 21:17
  Speaker 5: at that point if you're doing that, and I'm just
• 21:19
  Speaker 5: not so sure about that. Like, if Detroit had the
• 21:22
  Speaker 5: better bullpen, I would like this a lot more because
• 21:24
  Speaker 5: I'd say, yeah, Montaro could probably actually keep this game
• 21:27
  Speaker 5: close into the later innings and then maybe the edge
• 21:30
  Speaker 5: would shift to Detroit.
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: But the edge they do have here is the situation,
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: so the human factor here.
• 21:37
  Speaker 5: But yeah, I like the under in that game more
• 21:39
  Speaker 5: than anything else, but also slightly lean to Detroit. And
• 21:42
  Speaker 5: that's on ESPN Unlimited, MLBtv, etc.
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: Whatever.
• 21:46
  Speaker 5: That's one of the ESPN Unlimited games, though all right,
• 21:50
  Speaker 5: Miami and Minnesota, and yeah, you know, I I am considerate,
• 21:55
  Speaker 5: Like I'm thinking about it, and I'm like, why do
• 21:56
  Speaker 5: I not want to play an under in that game?
• 21:59
  Speaker 5: Detroit Matt's and it's it's close. I'll say that it
• 22:03
  Speaker 5: is close. The undermakes sense to me in that game.
• 22:07
  Speaker 5: Maybe I just don't fully trust Montero man.
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: I don't know what's.
• 22:11
  Speaker 5: Going on in my mind. But with McLain, you're not
• 22:14
  Speaker 5: getting too much value in there. By the way, as
• 22:16
  Speaker 5: far as the money line is in like the one
• 22:19
  Speaker 5: sixty range on the Mets, by the way, like to
• 22:21
  Speaker 5: the Mets really deserve to.
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: Be minus one sixty. That's the other thing.
• 22:24
  Speaker 5: The price, the price on the Mets is like pretty high.
• 22:29
  Speaker 5: Even the McClain is really really good. I don't know
• 22:32
  Speaker 5: if the Mets as a team deserves to be, you know,
• 22:36
  Speaker 5: favored by that much. And the other advantage Detroit does
• 22:38
  Speaker 5: have is, let's not forget, their offense is better. Although
• 22:41
  Speaker 5: I don't weigh the offense is that heavily, but they
• 22:44
  Speaker 5: do have the better offense pretty significantly.
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: Verlander, why why was that a mistake?
• 22:52
  Speaker 5: They're like probably paying him like next to nothing and
• 22:55
  Speaker 5: he gets to retire with Detroit and they're not using
• 22:58
  Speaker 5: him right now.
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 22:58
  Speaker 5: I don't think that's a mistake. I think it's kind
• 23:01
  Speaker 5: of meaningless. Other than that it means something to his career.
• 23:05
  Speaker 5: But it's not like they're like spending a ton of
• 23:07
  Speaker 5: money on him. I don't think they're probably paying him
• 23:09
  Speaker 5: like some almost minimum contract at this point, I would guess, Yeah, no,
• 23:16
  Speaker 5: no school at tax On Detroit.
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: It's just the Detroit's.
• 23:21
  Speaker 5: You know, the team is gonna be in the tank
• 23:23
  Speaker 5: because they don't have the best pitcher in baseball anymore.
• 23:26
  Speaker 5: Miami at Minnesota. Minnesota lost the game yesterday. These teams
• 23:31
  Speaker 5: have split the first two games of the series. I
• 23:33
  Speaker 5: believe it's a three game series. Yeah, so we got
• 23:35
  Speaker 5: the win with Miami yesterday. Miami does play Tampa Bay
• 23:41
  Speaker 5: over the weekend. I don't know if that's gonna be
• 23:42
  Speaker 5: a cause for a look ahead or not. Minnesota's playing
• 23:45
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee is their geographical, geographic rival whatever, Yeah, if you
• 23:51
  Speaker 5: want to call it that, that's what they.
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: Have to look forward to here. I don't know.
• 23:56
  Speaker 5: I don't really think there's a huge situational edge one
• 23:59
  Speaker 5: way or the other. Heere Soda used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 24:02
  Speaker 5: Miami used three as well. Minnesota's bullpen is horrible, twenty
• 24:08
  Speaker 5: ninth out of thirty, really really bad. Miami has a
• 24:11
  Speaker 5: huge bullpen advantage. They're number three in bullpen and that
• 24:15
  Speaker 5: was part of the handicap yesterday. Minnesota. Offensively, they're a
• 24:20
  Speaker 5: little bit better than Miami. They're at thirteenth. Miami is
• 24:23
  Speaker 5: eighteenth Miami. This is a really, really weird pitching matchup.
• 24:29
  Speaker 5: Braxton Garrett is pitching from Miami here. He has not
• 24:34
  Speaker 5: pitched in the majors since twenty twenty four. He was
• 24:37
  Speaker 5: a starter with Miami for a while. He was actually
• 24:40
  Speaker 5: pretty good in twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three.
• 24:42
  Speaker 5: His one full season was in twenty twenty three.
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: He was good. His walk rate was really low.
• 24:50
  Speaker 5: He had a five point four strikeout walk ratio that season,
• 24:53
  Speaker 5: had a one point one five whip three point six
• 24:56
  Speaker 5: sixty ra That was good stuff. And then twenty twenty
• 24:59
  Speaker 5: four his whip was still pretty good as the ray
• 25:01
  Speaker 5: was high, but kind of misleading. I'm pretty sure he
• 25:04
  Speaker 5: got hurt and he hasn't been seen since then, and
• 25:07
  Speaker 5: now he's making his return from what I presume is
• 25:10
  Speaker 5: probably Tommy John surgery, because that's what happens to everybody.
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: Now, the question is is he going to come back
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: from that? We don't know.
• 25:18
  Speaker 5: He's twenty eight years old. The younger you are, the
• 25:20
  Speaker 5: more likely it is that you're gonna bounce back from
• 25:22
  Speaker 5: an injury like that. If that's what it was, some
• 25:25
  Speaker 5: sort of elbow injury. He obviously is capable of being
• 25:28
  Speaker 5: a good pitcher, as we could see in his past numbers.
• 25:31
  Speaker 5: But this is gonna be a real, real mystery here
• 25:34
  Speaker 5: what he's gonna do this time. I looked at his
• 25:37
  Speaker 5: numbers in the miners in like Triple A. They weren't
• 25:40
  Speaker 5: really that good. He pitched in the miners a little bit,
• 25:43
  Speaker 5: I could. I'm gonna try to bring it back up
• 25:44
  Speaker 5: right now, hang on, Brax and Garrett. I'm looking at
• 25:50
  Speaker 5: his minor league like rehab stints this year. Actually he
• 25:55
  Speaker 5: wasn't too No, no, I take that back. He was
• 25:58
  Speaker 5: actually pretty good this season. He went thirty one in
• 26:02
  Speaker 5: the third inn. He's had a two point three ERA
• 26:05
  Speaker 5: point eight whip. The walks are really the one problem.
• 26:09
  Speaker 5: He had thirty two strike cuts in fifteen walks. That
• 26:12
  Speaker 5: was in Triple a over a span of six starts,
• 26:17
  Speaker 5: so I mean, most of his numbers look good except
• 26:20
  Speaker 5: for the walks. He's gonna have to get that wildness
• 26:22
  Speaker 5: under control. But he might actually pitch okay in this game.
• 26:25
  Speaker 5: He's made a lot of minor league starts this season,
• 26:28
  Speaker 5: so he does look like he's ready to go. Minnesota
• 26:31
  Speaker 5: does not have a lot of experience against him. They
• 26:33
  Speaker 5: have three hitters who have faced it before. Eleven at bats,
• 26:37
  Speaker 5: two seventy three average, six oh six ops, no extra
• 26:41
  Speaker 5: base hits, one strike out, one walk, So he may
• 26:46
  Speaker 5: actually pitch okay here. Zebbie Mattews, I think might be
• 26:49
  Speaker 5: more of the concern. He's pitching for the Twins and
• 26:53
  Speaker 5: he's still young twenty five. He's pitched in the majors
• 26:56
  Speaker 5: over the last two seasons, and he has not done well.
• 27:00
  Speaker 5: Career ERA five point nine to two, one point five
• 27:04
  Speaker 5: four whip. His strikeout rate was always good, though he
• 27:06
  Speaker 5: had a high strikeout rate. I'm in the majors, but
• 27:10
  Speaker 5: he was walking a few too many guys.
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: He was allowing too many hits.
• 27:13
  Speaker 5: Though he's he's that's actually been his biggest issue is
• 27:17
  Speaker 5: he's way too hittable. I mean, you think that that
• 27:20
  Speaker 5: doesn't coincide with being a big strike up pitcher usually
• 27:23
  Speaker 5: not that hittable. I don't know, man, but he's still
• 27:26
  Speaker 5: he does have the potential to pitch better than what
• 27:30
  Speaker 5: he has been. But I looked at his minor league
• 27:32
  Speaker 5: numbers this season were actually not good, and that is
• 27:35
  Speaker 5: kind of an issue that I have. He hasn't been
• 27:37
  Speaker 5: good in the majors so far. In the minors, I'm
• 27:41
  Speaker 5: gonna bring it back up right now. He sorry, this
• 27:44
  Speaker 5: is not in the right window. But in the miners
• 27:46
  Speaker 5: this season Triple A, he has a four point seven
• 27:48
  Speaker 5: to two ERA one point five to one whip really
• 27:53
  Speaker 5: really bad. Again, he's too hittable. Actually he's allowed trying
• 27:59
  Speaker 5: to see the number hits that he's allowed here, Yeah,
• 28:02
  Speaker 5: well over.
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: One hit per inning.
• 28:03
  Speaker 5: And he has the thirty three to eleven strike a
• 28:05
  Speaker 5: walk ratio in Triple A this season. So I think
• 28:08
  Speaker 5: Matthews is actually the bigger concern. But Garrett has not
• 28:12
  Speaker 5: pitched in the majors for multiple years. Man, Matthews did
• 28:15
  Speaker 5: bitch in the majors last year. This game is a
• 28:18
  Speaker 5: huge question mark, Like, obviously I'm not putting this game
• 28:21
  Speaker 5: on my card. I don't even know what to do
• 28:23
  Speaker 5: with this game. Man, the money is coming in on Miami,
• 28:26
  Speaker 5: uh fifty eight percent of tickets, sixty three percent of
• 28:28
  Speaker 5: the cash on the Minnesota's in the minus one twenty
• 28:31
  Speaker 5: five range. Here, it looks like we don't see any
• 28:37
  Speaker 5: percentages on the total here, the totals eight and a half.
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: You know, I'll probably agree with Miami.
• 28:44
  Speaker 5: I mean, we've just seen better performances out of Garrett
• 28:48
  Speaker 5: during his like his major league career is the more
• 28:51
  Speaker 5: established one. He looked better at Triple A this year
• 28:53
  Speaker 5: than Matthews did. Miami's got the better bullpens still, so
• 28:57
  Speaker 5: I think I will lean to Miami there. But I'm
• 28:59
  Speaker 5: not gonna make that a but you are getting Miami
• 29:02
  Speaker 5: as an underdog in that game. I'm not really sure
• 29:04
  Speaker 5: that Minnesota with ZEBI map these plus their bullpen, should
• 29:08
  Speaker 5: they really be favored in that game.
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: I'm not so sure about that. All right, San Diego
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: and Milwaukee.
• 29:15
  Speaker 5: We got the undercorrect in this game yesterday, three to
• 29:17
  Speaker 5: one San Diego win.
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: That ended a five game win streak for Milwaukee.
• 29:22
  Speaker 5: And I talk about when teams lose a win streak,
• 29:24
  Speaker 5: a lot of times they will be hung over into
• 29:27
  Speaker 5: the next game, so maybe not necessarily a great spot
• 29:29
  Speaker 5: for Milwaukee. Hero though, I don't think they're gonna be
• 29:32
  Speaker 5: looking ahead to Minnesota over the weekend, because who cares
• 29:36
  Speaker 5: San Diego. They are going to be playing Seattle, and
• 29:40
  Speaker 5: I don't know why that's a geographic rivalry if it
• 29:43
  Speaker 5: is one, but that's who they're playing over the weekend.
• 29:45
  Speaker 5: I don't know that that's a look ahead spot either.
• 29:47
  Speaker 5: Probably not. I think these teams are gonna be focused
• 29:50
  Speaker 5: on this game, trying to win the series, because these
• 29:52
  Speaker 5: teams have split the first two games of the series.
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: San Diego did use their better relievers to.
• 29:58
  Speaker 5: Get the save yesterday, so Mason Miller probably not gonna
• 30:01
  Speaker 5: pitch today, so they're gonna try to get themselves in
• 30:05
  Speaker 5: a situation where they don't need him. Milwaukee, their closer
• 30:08
  Speaker 5: will be available today. Miguil pitched the day before that.
• 30:12
  Speaker 5: They used two relieve pitchers yesterday. San Diego does have
• 30:15
  Speaker 5: a very good bullpen, though they're ranked fourth right now
• 30:18
  Speaker 5: in bullpen Brewers have been making the climb.
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: They're fifteenth right now.
• 30:22
  Speaker 5: So just like I said yesterday, both of these bullpens
• 30:25
  Speaker 5: are capable at the very least and these offenses have
• 30:29
  Speaker 5: not been very good, so that factored into the under
• 30:32
  Speaker 5: handicap yesterday Milwaukee's.
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: Twentieth San Diego twenty eighth. San Diego really struggling offensively.
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: Griffin Canning is pitching.
• 30:42
  Speaker 5: For San Diego though, I mean, just based on who
• 30:46
  Speaker 5: he is alone, nothing personal, but I just can't trust
• 30:49
  Speaker 5: Griffin Canning, dude, I just can't do it. Like, based
• 30:52
  Speaker 5: on what he's done over the last few seasons in
• 30:54
  Speaker 5: the majors. I'm not a fan. He showed some signs
• 30:59
  Speaker 5: of improvement, but yeah, I don't know. I mean, he's
• 31:01
  Speaker 5: thirty years old. He's not Foster Griffin man. His name
• 31:04
  Speaker 5: is Griffin though Foster Griffin Canning. No, Canning is a
• 31:10
  Speaker 5: six point seven five RA one point six to one
• 31:12
  Speaker 5: win this season.
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: That's bad.
• 31:14
  Speaker 5: Obviously he's been He does not have any home road
• 31:19
  Speaker 5: splits that we can see it right now. He's only
• 31:21
  Speaker 5: made starts at home so far. So this will be
• 31:23
  Speaker 5: his first road start, which might be a concern because
• 31:26
  Speaker 5: you remember, San Diego has a very pitcher friendly ballpark,
• 31:30
  Speaker 5: and now this is gonna be his first start.
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: Away from that stadium.
• 31:34
  Speaker 5: He got lit up in his last start too, against
• 31:37
  Speaker 5: Saint Louis in that ballpark. That's not a great sign.
• 31:41
  Speaker 5: He's got twelve strikeouts in nine to third innings is
• 31:43
  Speaker 5: pretty good. Five walks is not great. Ten hits a
• 31:46
  Speaker 5: lot is not great. So he hasn't pitched that well.
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: Really.
• 31:50
  Speaker 5: Now he's going up against the Brewers. They have good
• 31:53
  Speaker 5: numbers against him in the past. Not a huge sample
• 31:55
  Speaker 5: of twenty six at bats, three strikeouts, one walk, but
• 31:58
  Speaker 5: they have hit three forty six off him one twenty
• 32:01
  Speaker 5: four ops. Uh, Andrew Vaughn, I guess must be back.
• 32:05
  Speaker 5: Like some of these injured players are coming back from Milwaukee, man,
• 32:08
  Speaker 5: so you're probably gonna see their offense get.
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: A little bit better.
• 32:11
  Speaker 5: Chorio came back like a week ago, Vaughn, Yelich. They
• 32:15
  Speaker 5: were all on the on the d L and I
• 32:16
  Speaker 5: think they're all back now. It looks like it's like
• 32:19
  Speaker 5: because ESPN is factoring them into that stat sheet there,
• 32:23
  Speaker 5: that must mean they're all back. Yellick Yelich, how everything now?
• 32:30
  Speaker 5: Say he has listed as day to day though, but
• 32:32
  Speaker 5: the rest of those guys are back. So interesting anyway,
• 32:38
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee is Kyle Harrison pitching. When I first looked at this,
• 32:41
  Speaker 5: I was like this is a clear pitching mismatch in
• 32:45
  Speaker 5: the starting pitching in favor of Milwaukee, Harrison Overcanning. I mean,
• 32:48
  Speaker 5: it looks so obvious. Harrison's the way better pitcher. Yes,
• 32:52
  Speaker 5: his overall numbers are way better. He's been awesome this year.
• 32:55
  Speaker 5: Two point four to one ERA, one point two to whip.
• 32:59
  Speaker 5: Not the best, but still pretty good. He's been slightly
• 33:02
  Speaker 5: better at home, but not significant home road splits.
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: He struggled in his last game against the Yankees. He
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: walked four guys, but he still limited them to two runs.
• 33:10
  Speaker 5: They took him out after four innings even though he
• 33:12
  Speaker 5: wasn't really that deep into his pitch count, so I
• 33:14
  Speaker 5: don't know what really went on there. But he's not
• 33:17
  Speaker 5: a lot more than two earned runs in any start
• 33:19
  Speaker 5: this season. Forty one to thirteen strike a walk ratio
• 33:23
  Speaker 5: in thirty three and two thirds innings with.
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: Twenty eight hits allowed.
• 33:26
  Speaker 5: These are good numbers here against San Diego, though his
• 33:29
  Speaker 5: numbers are actually really bad against San Diego. They're familiar
• 33:33
  Speaker 5: with him because remember he was on the Giants. But
• 33:36
  Speaker 5: you might have to take these numbers with a grain
• 33:37
  Speaker 5: of salt, because he's way better now than he has
• 33:40
  Speaker 5: been in the past, like this is he's only twenty four, dude,
• 33:44
  Speaker 5: So like this looks like his season where he's actually
• 33:46
  Speaker 5: reaching that next step in his career. So he wasn't
• 33:49
  Speaker 5: as good back when he was on the Giants. So
• 33:52
  Speaker 5: maybe you have to not put that much weight into
• 33:53
  Speaker 5: these numbers. But these numbers are bad enough that I
• 33:56
  Speaker 5: can't give you a play on Milwaukee.
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: Here.
• 33:58
  Speaker 5: He's got forty two at against San Diego. They're very
• 34:02
  Speaker 5: familiar with him because he was in their division. Nine strikeouts,
• 34:05
  Speaker 5: two walks, three eighty one average allowed, twelve sixty six ops.
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: That is not good. So I gotta stay away from this.
• 34:13
  Speaker 5: Even though starting pitching wise, this looks like it's a
• 34:17
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee game, you know, maybe even full game because San
• 34:21
  Speaker 5: Diego used their better relievers yesterday. Milwaukee is around minus
• 34:25
  Speaker 5: one fifty or so in this game. It's definitely a
• 34:29
  Speaker 5: little bit of a steep price. Again, I don't think
• 34:31
  Speaker 5: you lay that price with Harrison's matchup numbers. Here, the
• 34:35
  Speaker 5: money is indicating towards San Diego, which I would not
• 34:38
  Speaker 5: do that. I'm not gonna have my money on Griffin Canning.
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: I'll tell you that eighty five percent of tickets eighty
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: percent of the.
• 34:44
  Speaker 5: Cash on Milwaukee. Milwaukee still kind of makes sense, like
• 34:49
  Speaker 5: a split bet run line money line, you know, to
• 34:52
  Speaker 5: take the Harrison question mark out of the equation because
• 34:55
  Speaker 5: he might be really good because he's been good this year.
• 34:57
  Speaker 5: He might be bad because his matchup numbers are bad.
• 35:01
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee over their team total makes some sense to me
• 35:04
  Speaker 5: in this game. I think that might actually be the
• 35:05
  Speaker 5: better approach in this game, because I was gonna lean
• 35:08
  Speaker 5: over because bull starting pitchers have bad matchup numbers, even
• 35:12
  Speaker 5: though I know we have some decent bullpens here or whatever.
• 35:15
  Speaker 5: Totals at eight which is not really that high. But
• 35:17
  Speaker 5: if you sort of into the over sortling to Milwaukee,
• 35:21
  Speaker 5: but there are some question marks with those, Milwaukee over
• 35:24
  Speaker 5: their team total makes some sense to me. Then you
• 35:26
  Speaker 5: just need Milwaukee to get runs off a grip and
• 35:29
  Speaker 5: canning and then yeah, they'll have to score potentially off
• 35:32
  Speaker 5: of San Diego's bullpen, which is a little bit of
• 35:34
  Speaker 5: a concern, but you're probably asking them to score five
• 35:38
  Speaker 5: runs in the game. I mean, didn't have to get
• 35:42
  Speaker 5: most of it in the early innings of a canning though,
• 35:45
  Speaker 5: But that's probably what I would do, is Milwaukee over
• 35:47
  Speaker 5: their team total. All right, dirty sock, what's up? Thanks
• 35:51
  Speaker 5: for hanging out? The heater is obviously going to end.
• 35:53
  Speaker 5: This cannot continue. This is obvious, Like this is so unsustainable.
• 35:58
  Speaker 5: I mean, I like that it's happening, but and I
• 36:01
  Speaker 5: don't like that I'm not putting enough money on these
• 36:04
  Speaker 5: games because yeah, this has been yeah fire recently, but
• 36:08
  Speaker 5: it's going to end and it's probably gonna crash and burn.
• 36:11
  Speaker 5: I mean, I'm not gonna say obviously we're gonna keep winning,
• 36:16
  Speaker 5: just in general.
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: Long term that's the goal. Win long term. We're doing that.
• 36:20
  Speaker 5: But this type of run, you can't sustain this. All right,
• 36:26
  Speaker 5: This has been like one of the hottest months I
• 36:29
  Speaker 5: think that I've probably ever had. All Right, May tends
• 36:32
  Speaker 5: to be really good for me, though, Man, historically I
• 36:34
  Speaker 5: have crushed in May, and usually it's NBA playoffs. But
• 36:38
  Speaker 5: NBA playoffs have not done that well for me. But
• 36:40
  Speaker 5: hockey playoffs in baseball usually do pretty well as well.
• 36:43
  Speaker 5: But baseball has been really good. Hockey playoffs have been
• 36:46
  Speaker 5: good as well. Somehow, NBA playoffs are the one thing
• 36:49
  Speaker 5: I can't get right, and WNBA has helped us out
• 36:52
  Speaker 5: as well. Hopefully that continues tonight because I have a
• 36:54
  Speaker 5: WNBA play on the board as well.
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 36:58
  Speaker 5: All right, Seattle at Houston. Houston finally got a win yesterday.
• 37:03
  Speaker 5: Congrats they won by one run.
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: Yesterday.
• 37:06
  Speaker 5: Seattle won the first two games of this series. It
• 37:09
  Speaker 5: is a four game series, but Houston ended a losing streak,
• 37:12
  Speaker 5: so they might have a little bit of momentum here.
• 37:15
  Speaker 5: When a team ends a losing streaks sometimes you do
• 37:17
  Speaker 5: want to look towards that team to win again in
• 37:20
  Speaker 5: the next game. Houston does play Texas in rivalry weekend,
• 37:25
  Speaker 5: even though it's not an interleague series, but they are.
• 37:28
  Speaker 5: They're obviously geographic rivals though, so it makes sense in
• 37:31
  Speaker 5: that way. I don't know that Seattle is gonna really
• 37:34
  Speaker 5: care about playing San Diego next to the san Diego
• 37:36
  Speaker 5: is having a good season, so maybe Seattle did just
• 37:39
  Speaker 5: lose a win streak. So losing a win streak sometimes
• 37:42
  Speaker 5: they'll hang you over. But it was only a two
• 37:44
  Speaker 5: game win streak. It was just the two games they
• 37:46
  Speaker 5: won in this series. As far as the bullpen usage Houston,
• 37:52
  Speaker 5: I mean, their bullpen is awful and they used four
• 37:55
  Speaker 5: relief pitchers yesterday.
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: I don't know how they held on to a win.
• 37:58
  Speaker 5: It was an extra inning game, by the way, and
• 38:00
  Speaker 5: Seattle used a lot of relief pitchers as well.
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: Seattle used six relief pitchers. That's not good.
• 38:06
  Speaker 5: So I think whatever you do with this game, I
• 38:09
  Speaker 5: would not want to factor the bullpens in in any
• 38:12
  Speaker 5: positive way. Houston, I would never rely on their bullpen
• 38:16
  Speaker 5: in any way. They're the worst bullpen in baseball, absolutely pathetic.
• 38:21
  Speaker 5: Their rays below six again, though, so there you go.
• 38:24
  Speaker 5: They suck bad. Seattle's bullpen is considerably better at fifteenth,
• 38:29
  Speaker 5: and their ray is actually one of the best in baseball.
• 38:32
  Speaker 5: They're a good bullpen, but they are very used up
• 38:34
  Speaker 5: after last night's extra inning game. So I don't know
• 38:38
  Speaker 5: that i'd want anything to do with Seattle's bullpen here either,
• 38:40
  Speaker 5: although they are the better of the two. Still, hitting wise,
• 38:44
  Speaker 5: Houston's been pretty good. They're fourth, Seattle seventeenth, so Seattle
• 38:48
  Speaker 5: is improving in that department. Luis Castillo is picturing for Seattle.
• 38:53
  Speaker 5: I still have no idea what's going on with this guy?
• 38:56
  Speaker 5: Six point five to seven Erara one point six to whip.
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: What is up with this?
• 39:01
  Speaker 5: I have no idea. Castillo has been a pretty solid
• 39:04
  Speaker 5: pitcher throughout his career.
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: So I keep saying that there's no way this is sustainable,
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: Like he's not this bad.
• 39:10
  Speaker 5: Maybe he's injured. I don't, dude, I have no idea
• 39:13
  Speaker 5: what's going on. He's been really bad on the road
• 39:16
  Speaker 5: seven point five roadyra It makes sense that he's better
• 39:19
  Speaker 5: at home. Seattle has a very picture friendly ballpark, but
• 39:22
  Speaker 5: his overall numbers being this bad are just, you know,
• 39:26
  Speaker 5: really really confusing. And he hasn't been pitching well recently either,
• 39:30
  Speaker 5: except that he does have an eleven to two strikeout
• 39:33
  Speaker 5: walk ratio this month, so that tells you something that
• 39:36
  Speaker 5: he is. You know, his command numbers look good. He's
• 39:40
  Speaker 5: not walking guys, he's striking guys out. It looks like
• 39:42
  Speaker 5: he's gotten unlucky this month. He's only allot eleven hits
• 39:46
  Speaker 5: in ten innues, which isn't that bad, but he's allowed
• 39:49
  Speaker 5: eight runs over those two starts against Kansas City and
• 39:52
  Speaker 5: the White Sox. But to me, that looks like he
• 39:54
  Speaker 5: did get a bit unlucky in those two starts. So
• 39:57
  Speaker 5: I still think at some point he's gonna turn this
• 39:59
  Speaker 5: thing around. He's just nowhere near this bad. Thirty seven strikeouts,
• 40:04
  Speaker 5: thirteen walks on the season, that's not that bad. Forty
• 40:07
  Speaker 5: nine hits is not good though, in thirty eight and
• 40:09
  Speaker 5: a third innings, So he's been too hittable.
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it makes no sense. He's got to figure it out, man.
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: He had a good start.
• 40:15
  Speaker 5: At home to open the season against the Yankees and
• 40:18
  Speaker 5: really hasn't done much good since. But at some point
• 40:21
  Speaker 5: I think he is going to pitch better than this.
• 40:24
  Speaker 5: Maybe it's not gonna happen here. I don't know if
• 40:25
  Speaker 5: Houston's familiar with him. The numbers are decent against him,
• 40:29
  Speaker 5: one hundred and thirteen at bats against him. He does
• 40:31
  Speaker 5: have a really good thirty to four strikeout walk ratio
• 40:34
  Speaker 5: against them though, so that is good. But he's a
• 40:36
  Speaker 5: lot of two seventy four average, so he strikes a
• 40:39
  Speaker 5: lot of them out, but when they make contact with him,
• 40:41
  Speaker 5: they hit him pretty hard. To seventy four average seven
• 40:44
  Speaker 5: to twenty four oh ps is not that high. Jordan
• 40:48
  Speaker 5: Alvarez has ten hits off him in twenty two at bats,
• 40:51
  Speaker 5: including four home runs, So possible player prop potential there
• 40:55
  Speaker 5: if you want the guy that has the best offensive
• 40:58
  Speaker 5: numbers against him, Houston, though you know, I would not
• 41:02
  Speaker 5: say that their starting pitcher is better the castillo.
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: He's not. Mike Burrows is pitching for the Astros. He's
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: not having a good season.
• 41:10
  Speaker 5: Five point zero four ERA, one point four to eight whip.
• 41:13
  Speaker 5: He's been worse at home five point seventy five home ERA.
• 41:17
  Speaker 5: This month, He's been pretty good though. He's made two starts.
• 41:20
  Speaker 5: It was against the Red Sox in Cincinnati, who have
• 41:23
  Speaker 5: not had good offenses, though, but he only lot three
• 41:26
  Speaker 5: earned runs across those two outings in thirteen innings, nine strikeouts,
• 41:29
  Speaker 5: two walks. That was pretty good, and it's good that
• 41:32
  Speaker 5: those were both on the road in hitter friendly ballparks,
• 41:35
  Speaker 5: so give him credit for that. He pitched actually pretty
• 41:38
  Speaker 5: well against the Yankees the start before that, too, So
• 41:41
  Speaker 5: Burrows does look like he is trending in the right direction.
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: I'll give you that. So he he's.
• 41:45
  Speaker 5: In better form right now than he has been throughout
• 41:48
  Speaker 5: the season. His overall numbers are not too bad except
• 41:51
  Speaker 5: for the amount of hits fifty two hits and forty
• 41:54
  Speaker 5: four to two thirds innings. He's got forty two strikeouts,
• 41:56
  Speaker 5: fourteen walks.
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: That's not that bad.
• 42:00
  Speaker 5: Eight home runs is not really that great though, But overall,
• 42:03
  Speaker 5: I think Borrows is probably a little bit better than
• 42:05
  Speaker 5: his numbers suggests. Both these starting pitchers I think are
• 42:08
  Speaker 5: better than their numbers suggest. Seattle's had good numbers against
• 42:11
  Speaker 5: him in the past, though he's actually faced Seattle more
• 42:14
  Speaker 5: than you would think. Forty five at bats three point
• 42:17
  Speaker 5: thirty three average, allowed nine to fifty six ops eight
• 42:20
  Speaker 5: five strikeout walk ratio.
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: Those numbers not great. He actually faced them.
• 42:24
  Speaker 5: This year and he had his worst start of the
• 42:26
  Speaker 5: season actually, or yeah, probably his worst was at Seattle
• 42:30
  Speaker 5: up pitcher friendly Ballpark. He gave up eleven hits in
• 42:34
  Speaker 5: that one in six innings, six are in runs, allowed,
• 42:37
  Speaker 5: three strikeouts, one walk. That's not that bad, but the
• 42:39
  Speaker 5: rest of those numbers are really bad.
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: So Seattle has.
• 42:42
  Speaker 5: Been able to hit him, so they might be able
• 42:45
  Speaker 5: to continue to do that. So that's not a great
• 42:46
  Speaker 5: sign there. I don't have a good read on this game, man.
• 42:50
  Speaker 5: The money's coming in on Seattle. They're only like minus
• 42:53
  Speaker 5: one twenty something here.
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: If you look at.
• 42:55
  Speaker 5: These pitchers' careers, like I think it is pretty clear
• 42:58
  Speaker 5: that Castillo is the better pitcher, Like he's the way
• 43:02
  Speaker 5: more established pitcher.
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: I just don't know what's going on with him.
• 43:05
  Speaker 5: This season, man, the money is indicating on Seattle fifty
• 43:08
  Speaker 5: three percent of tickets seventy six percent of the cash
• 43:11
  Speaker 5: on them. Seattle still has the better bullpen as well,
• 43:14
  Speaker 5: but Houston, you know, might have some new momentum after
• 43:17
  Speaker 5: winning yesterday.
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: The totals at nine.
• 43:20
  Speaker 5: I mean, I think if you're gonna go over in
• 43:23
  Speaker 5: this game, probably full game makes sense because you get
• 43:26
  Speaker 5: you get to take advantage of Houston's horrible bullpen, and
• 43:30
  Speaker 5: Seattle's bullpen is unrested as well. You know, an over
• 43:33
  Speaker 5: full game does still make sense to me. And this one,
• 43:35
  Speaker 5: all the money's kind of disagreeing with it. I don't
• 43:39
  Speaker 5: have a good read on the game, man, I really don't.
• 43:41
  Speaker 5: That's probably one of the games that I'm least confident
• 43:44
  Speaker 5: about here. All right, you've increased the amount. I don't
• 43:50
  Speaker 5: consider any money to be house money, like I do
• 43:53
  Speaker 5: not want to lose, Like I don't want to give
• 43:55
  Speaker 5: the house the money back that I've won at all.
• 43:58
  Speaker 5: The goal is to continue winning and that like I Yeah,
• 44:01
  Speaker 5: I do not consider anything to be house money.
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: All right. It's a grind, man.
• 44:06
  Speaker 5: The goal is to win at all times. Saint Louis
• 44:10
  Speaker 5: at the A's we had a winner in this series
• 44:12
  Speaker 5: in Game one with Saint Louis winning. The A's bounced
• 44:16
  Speaker 5: back and won yesterday, which I think I did lean
• 44:18
  Speaker 5: to the A's yesterday slightly.
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: They got a win yesterday.
• 44:22
  Speaker 5: I thought the pitching, like looking at the flyball ground
• 44:25
  Speaker 5: ball rates for these pitchers is something you want to
• 44:27
  Speaker 5: do in these games at this stupid A's stadium and
• 44:30
  Speaker 5: in course field as well. But this is similar in
• 44:33
  Speaker 5: that it's a very home run friendly stadium. It's a
• 44:35
  Speaker 5: stupid Triple A stadium. The As just need to get
• 44:39
  Speaker 5: over to Las Vegas already man become a real team again.
• 44:43
  Speaker 5: The Aas used four relief pitchers yesterday. I mean their
• 44:46
  Speaker 5: bullpen's not good. Neither is Seattle or excuse Saint Louis.
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: Seattle.
• 44:50
  Speaker 5: Saint Louis STL makes me think Seattle. Saint Louis used
• 44:54
  Speaker 5: three relief pitchers yesterday. I don't trust either bullpen. The
• 44:57
  Speaker 5: A's A ranked twenty fourth, Saint Louis twenty second in bullpen.
• 45:02
  Speaker 5: A has been good offensively seventh, Saint Louis ranked thirteenth.
• 45:06
  Speaker 5: So these are offenses that can hit. Michael mcgreevy's picture
• 45:10
  Speaker 5: for Saint Louis. He's been definitely he's been the better
• 45:13
  Speaker 5: of these two pitchers this season. Two point one eighty ray,
• 45:16
  Speaker 5: point eighty six whip. That's really good stuff. McGreevy always
• 45:21
  Speaker 5: confuses me because he is not a strike up pitcher
• 45:24
  Speaker 5: at all, but he puts up good numbers, so you
• 45:27
  Speaker 5: might be able to get some value pitching or playing,
• 45:30
  Speaker 5: you know, picking spots to play on the Cardinals with
• 45:33
  Speaker 5: McGreevy pitching because he's got good numbers and nobody cares
• 45:37
  Speaker 5: because he's not you know, a guy that has electric
• 45:39
  Speaker 5: stuff or anything like that, this might not be a
• 45:41
  Speaker 5: spot road want to bank on him, though he's not
• 45:43
  Speaker 5: as good on the road three point two to two
• 45:45
  Speaker 5: roadra which is two runs higher than it is at home.
• 45:48
  Speaker 5: Right now, Saint Louis is a pitcher friendly ballpark. The
• 45:52
  Speaker 5: A's stadium is certainly not, so he might have a
• 45:54
  Speaker 5: little bit of an issue pitching in this stadium.
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: He's been really good though.
• 45:59
  Speaker 5: Over his last three starts, he's gone eighteen innings, he's
• 46:01
  Speaker 5: allowed one run, and he's got eighteen strikeouts of five
• 46:05
  Speaker 5: walks over that sman, including a shutout for six innings
• 46:09
  Speaker 5: of the Dodgers he's allowed no runs this month. Yeah,
• 46:12
  Speaker 5: he's in pretty good form right now, other than the
• 46:14
  Speaker 5: fact that he has five walks over the last two outings,
• 46:17
  Speaker 5: but twelve strikeouts in twelve innings. Not too bad. Yeah,
• 46:21
  Speaker 5: he's pitching well. He's only allowed more than tour in
• 46:23
  Speaker 5: runs twice this season. Not a high strikeout rate, thirty
• 46:27
  Speaker 5: three of them in forty five and a third innings.
• 46:28
  Speaker 5: But he's only allowed ten walks twenty nine hits. None
• 46:31
  Speaker 5: of that is bad. So yeah, he's a pretty good
• 46:34
  Speaker 5: pitcher man, even though he doesn't blow guys away, and
• 46:38
  Speaker 5: he might pitch well here because his numbers against the
• 46:40
  Speaker 5: Aas don't exist. He's unfamiliar to the a's, so that's
• 46:44
  Speaker 5: an extra advantage when you have a decent pitcher going
• 46:46
  Speaker 5: and the other team has to try to figure him out.
• 46:49
  Speaker 5: A lot of times the pitcher will do well the
• 46:51
  Speaker 5: first couple times through that lineup, So that's an advantage
• 46:54
  Speaker 5: from agreevy as well. His ground ball fly ball rate,
• 46:58
  Speaker 5: it's not awful, but he does a lot more flyballs
• 47:01
  Speaker 5: and ground balls. He's not an extreme flyball pitcher, So
• 47:04
  Speaker 5: that alone, wouldn't you know, wouldn't tell me that you
• 47:07
  Speaker 5: have to completely stay away from him here, and in fact,
• 47:10
  Speaker 5: I actually I think I leaned towards him actually pitching
• 47:13
  Speaker 5: decently here, but I don't think it's.
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: Good enough to do anything with it.
• 47:17
  Speaker 5: But he is going up against Jacob Lopez, who really
• 47:20
  Speaker 5: is not having a good season. Six point one to
• 47:23
  Speaker 5: one ERA one point seventy five whip for the A's.
• 47:26
  Speaker 5: It looks like, you know what, those like stretches where
• 47:30
  Speaker 5: he was pitching really well last year looked like they're
• 47:32
  Speaker 5: kind of a mirage. At this point, he was putting
• 47:35
  Speaker 5: up massive strikeout numbers, but he doesn't even throw hard.
• 47:38
  Speaker 5: He throws like a low nineties fastball. He was striking
• 47:40
  Speaker 5: everybody out with his curveball, which is a nasty curveball.
• 47:44
  Speaker 5: But still, I don't know, man, He's just he doesn't
• 47:47
  Speaker 5: have it right now. His numbers have been worse at home,
• 47:50
  Speaker 5: which makes sense to bad stadium to pitch in six
• 47:53
  Speaker 5: point seventy five home ERA bad. He's been a little
• 47:58
  Speaker 5: bit better this month.
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: He's allowed four earn runs and ten and two thirds
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: innings over two starts against Cleveland and Baltimore. Not exactly great.
• 48:07
  Speaker 5: Offenses, though Saint Louis's offense might be probably they are
• 48:11
  Speaker 5: better than both of those. Ten to three strike out
• 48:15
  Speaker 5: walk ratio this month is not too bad over the
• 48:18
  Speaker 5: course of the season.
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: His numbers are really bad though.
• 48:20
  Speaker 5: Twenty eight to twenty four strike out walk ratio, that's
• 48:24
  Speaker 5: really bad, and thirty eight hits a lout in thirty
• 48:26
  Speaker 5: five and a third innings is not great either. One
• 48:30
  Speaker 5: of the starts this month was at home. Actually, that
• 48:33
  Speaker 5: start was bad against Cleveland. I got that wrong. I
• 48:36
  Speaker 5: said he allowed four earned runs. I apologize it's eight
• 48:39
  Speaker 5: earn runs. He allowed four home runs, So yeah, that's
• 48:42
  Speaker 5: way worse. So yes, Actually, he's not in particularly good
• 48:46
  Speaker 5: form right now either. Except the strike out walk ratio
• 48:49
  Speaker 5: was pretty good over those two starts, but Cleveland actually
• 48:51
  Speaker 5: knocked him around, and that was, of course in a
• 48:53
  Speaker 5: home start.
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: He pitched better on the road against Baltimore. But I
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: would not bank on him here, although Saint Louis has
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: never faced him before, so he does have that advantage
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: of unfamiliarity there.
• 49:05
  Speaker 5: But I'm gonna lean to Saint Louis in this one.
• 49:08
  Speaker 5: I would trust McGreevy a little bit more. The money
• 49:10
  Speaker 5: doesn't seem to agree. Seventy nine percent of ticket's only
• 49:13
  Speaker 5: seventy eight percent of the cash on Saint Louis. The
• 49:16
  Speaker 5: A's are a favorite, but I think they were a
• 49:18
  Speaker 5: smaller favorite in this one than they were in the
• 49:20
  Speaker 5: other two games. They're minus one ten. It's basically a
• 49:23
  Speaker 5: pick the winner price. The money looks like it is
• 49:25
  Speaker 5: agreeing with the A's and the over here, but again, yeah,
• 49:29
  Speaker 5: I don't know, man. I think I would lean to
• 49:31
  Speaker 5: Saint Louis slightly in that game. I think the starting
• 49:35
  Speaker 5: pitching edge goes to them, and then the bullpens are
• 49:37
  Speaker 5: just kind of a wash if.
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: You do go over in this game.
• 49:41
  Speaker 5: Obviously, a full game over is what you would want
• 49:44
  Speaker 5: to do, because both bullpens are bad. The total is
• 49:46
  Speaker 5: actually kind of low for an A's game, an A's
• 49:49
  Speaker 5: home game. It's at nine and a half. I usually
• 49:52
  Speaker 5: see ten on this thing, so that's a little bit interesting.
• 49:55
  Speaker 5: I think it's because McGreevy has good numbers. I think
• 49:58
  Speaker 5: that's what's keeping that total a little bit and checked there,
• 50:01
  Speaker 5: all right. Philadelphia and the Red Sox. The Red Sox
• 50:07
  Speaker 5: got the win yesterday. Sunny Gray had another pretty good
• 50:10
  Speaker 5: start yesterday. These teams to split the first two games
• 50:13
  Speaker 5: of the series, so I think both teams will show
• 50:15
  Speaker 5: up here. I mean, both teams are gonna try to
• 50:17
  Speaker 5: get a win here. Philadelphia has their rivalry against Pittsburgh next.
• 50:21
  Speaker 5: The Red Sox have their rivalry against the.
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: Braves over the weekend.
• 50:25
  Speaker 5: That's the Braves are the Red Sox historic interleague rival
• 50:30
  Speaker 5: because the Braves, like, what is this eighteen eighty eight,
• 50:34
  Speaker 5: Because the Braves used to be the Boston Braves probably
• 50:38
  Speaker 5: up until.
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: What like the very early nineteen hundreds or something. We're over.
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: It's a rivalry that's over a century old.
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know, it's stupid, but yes, the Braves
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: a long long time ago in a galaxy far away. No,
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: it is May the fourth did just happen?
• 50:59
  Speaker 5: I forget what I was about to say, but yeah,
• 51:00
  Speaker 5: Atlanta was a Boston The Braves were a Boston team.
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: Way way back in the day. All right.
• 51:06
  Speaker 5: Anyway, these games have been low scoring in this series.
• 51:10
  Speaker 5: These teams can't hit, so we've had two really low
• 51:13
  Speaker 5: scoring games. Philadelphia used four relief pitchers yesterday. The Red
• 51:17
  Speaker 5: Sox us three. Red Sox did use Chapman last night,
• 51:22
  Speaker 5: but he didn't pitch for three days prior to that.
• 51:25
  Speaker 5: And sometimes they do use them multiple days in a row. Chapman, dude,
• 51:30
  Speaker 5: what he's doing at the age of thirty eight or
• 51:32
  Speaker 5: whatever is pretty insane. He's still like a top tier
• 51:35
  Speaker 5: closer at that age. That's just insane. Red Sox have
• 51:39
  Speaker 5: had a good bullpen this year, the ranked fifth right now.
• 51:42
  Speaker 5: Philly's not as good at seventeenth, so the Red Sox
• 51:45
  Speaker 5: do have a bullpen edge year. Red Sox offense has
• 51:48
  Speaker 5: been awful. They're twenty seventh. Philly's not really that much
• 51:52
  Speaker 5: better at twenty first, but a little bit better. I
• 51:55
  Speaker 5: apologize for calling Kyle Schwarber nick Schwarber, dude.
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: I just don't know.
• 52:00
  Speaker 5: Half the time something just slips out and I don't
• 52:02
  Speaker 5: even it's because I had a stroke.
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: I think like, I don't know if just words get
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: mixed up in my brain, I don't know.
• 52:08
  Speaker 5: Kyle Schwarber is what I meant to say the other day.
• 52:12
  Speaker 5: Red Sox should happen back man, He hits really well
• 52:15
  Speaker 5: in Fenway anyway, Uh hazus. Lozardo's pitching for Philly. His
• 52:20
  Speaker 5: numbers look pretty bad on the season, but as I
• 52:23
  Speaker 5: keep saying, he is better than these numbers would suggest.
• 52:26
  Speaker 5: Five point seven to seventy RRA, one point four whip.
• 52:29
  Speaker 5: Like I said, throughout most of the seasons so far,
• 52:31
  Speaker 5: he's been allowing the guys to get on base against him,
• 52:34
  Speaker 5: to score at a really high rate. But his whip
• 52:38
  Speaker 5: is still pretty bad right now, so it's not all
• 52:41
  Speaker 5: luck at this point. He's been way better on the
• 52:44
  Speaker 5: road though, two point zero four Roady Ray, so I
• 52:48
  Speaker 5: think he is certainly capable of pitching well here. He's
• 52:51
  Speaker 5: coming up a game where he got pretty much rocked
• 52:54
  Speaker 5: against Colorado, and it was not rocked by the Rockies
• 52:57
  Speaker 5: and it was not in course field, so he did
• 52:59
  Speaker 5: have a beat in that game. But he pitched really
• 53:02
  Speaker 5: well the two starts prior to that against the Giants
• 53:04
  Speaker 5: and Miami, though one of those was at home against
• 53:07
  Speaker 5: the Giants, but their offense is putrid. Miami's not that
• 53:11
  Speaker 5: good either, but the Red Sox offense is also bad.
• 53:14
  Speaker 5: So I think Luzardo may bounce back here. I mean,
• 53:16
  Speaker 5: he does have a sixteen to three strikeout walk RA
• 53:19
  Speaker 5: issue this month, and if you expanded to his last
• 53:22
  Speaker 5: three outings, it's twenty four to three, so.
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: That's pretty good. Overall, fifty seven strikeouts and forty three
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: and two thirds innings. That's good.
• 53:31
  Speaker 5: Twelve walks that's not even that bad. He's just been
• 53:33
  Speaker 5: too hittable forty nine hits allowed. He's had issues with
• 53:37
  Speaker 5: tipping his pitches, like it started happening last year as
• 53:40
  Speaker 5: far as I know where he had some just awful
• 53:43
  Speaker 5: starts and it seemed to be that the hitters were
• 53:45
  Speaker 5: able to figure out what his pitches were gonna be.
• 53:48
  Speaker 5: So I don't know he's he would be bad at poker,
• 53:51
  Speaker 5: like he's doing something to tip his pitches, but I
• 53:54
  Speaker 5: don't think he's gonna pitch bad against the Red Sox.
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: Man. He's better on the road.
• 53:58
  Speaker 5: He's been able to pitch pretty well against bad lineups.
• 54:01
  Speaker 5: Although you know Colorado, I know they're not a good
• 54:04
  Speaker 5: hitting team on the road. But the Red Sox are
• 54:06
  Speaker 5: legitimately just a bad offense this year right now, even
• 54:09
  Speaker 5: though you'd expect based on who they have, they wouldn't
• 54:12
  Speaker 5: be this bad. But Luzardo has been pretty good against
• 54:14
  Speaker 5: them in the past. And forty nine at bats two
• 54:17
  Speaker 5: forty five average allowed, six ninety eight ohps, eleven strikeouts,
• 54:21
  Speaker 5: eight walks. Yeah, that's too many walks, but the rest
• 54:23
  Speaker 5: of his numbers are pretty good. He is going up
• 54:26
  Speaker 5: against ron Yr Suarez, which is a very interesting situation
• 54:31
  Speaker 5: because Suarez is getting to face his former team for
• 54:34
  Speaker 5: the first time because he was on the Phillies up
• 54:37
  Speaker 5: until the offseason. Now I don't believe it was a
• 54:40
  Speaker 5: trade though, I believe he was a free agent, but
• 54:43
  Speaker 5: so the Red Sox signed him. I liked the signing.
• 54:46
  Speaker 5: Suarez is pitch well for the Red Sox so far.
• 54:48
  Speaker 5: I liked the signing. I thought his style of pitching
• 54:51
  Speaker 5: pitch like. His style of pitching is pretty good for
• 54:55
  Speaker 5: hitter friendly parks like Fenway, Like he gets a lot
• 54:58
  Speaker 5: of ground balls and stuff, so I like that. But
• 55:03
  Speaker 5: for Suarez, he might get up for this game extra
• 55:06
  Speaker 5: because he's facing his former team. I think if they
• 55:08
  Speaker 5: traded him away, it would be better, Like he'd be
• 55:12
  Speaker 5: more motivated, you know what I mean. But you're I
• 55:14
  Speaker 5: think he's gonna be motivated the first time facing his
• 55:16
  Speaker 5: former team because they didn't trade him, but they did
• 55:18
  Speaker 5: let him go right like, they didn't re sign him
• 55:21
  Speaker 5: over the offseason, so I think he still might want
• 55:24
  Speaker 5: to prove something and pitch well here.
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: So I think he is going to do that.
• 55:28
  Speaker 5: He's had a good season two point seven to seventy
• 55:31
  Speaker 5: RA point nine to five whip. Although he's had, you know,
• 55:35
  Speaker 5: some minor injury issues already.
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: He's pitched a little.
• 55:38
  Speaker 5: Bit worse at home, but three point four to eighty
• 55:40
  Speaker 5: RA is still not really that bad.
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: He only went.
• 55:44
  Speaker 5: Four innings his last time out against Houston. I think
• 55:47
  Speaker 5: that was the outing where he got injured.
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it was.
• 55:51
  Speaker 5: So he's actually pitching off schedule, so that's a problem.
• 55:53
  Speaker 5: He actually hasn't pitched in eleven days, so yeah, he
• 55:56
  Speaker 5: got hurt in that start. He was shutting out Houston
• 55:58
  Speaker 5: through the first four innings and then yeah, he landed
• 56:02
  Speaker 5: wrong or something. I think he like pulled his hamstring
• 56:04
  Speaker 5: or something like that. So hopefully he's ready to go.
• 56:09
  Speaker 5: So that's a little bit of an issue. You know,
• 56:11
  Speaker 5: sometimes when a pitcher is off their normal schedule will
• 56:13
  Speaker 5: throw them off a little bit.
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: But he was pitching pretty well.
• 56:17
  Speaker 5: He's given up no earned runs in four of his
• 56:20
  Speaker 5: last five starts, although granted that one was shorter. But
• 56:22
  Speaker 5: the only start where he got knocked around was against
• 56:25
  Speaker 5: the Yankees really good offense.
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: That was at home.
• 56:28
  Speaker 5: But he's really pitched pretty well, like since he had
• 56:32
  Speaker 5: two bad starts to start the season. Besides that Yankee start,
• 56:35
  Speaker 5: he's been really good, and of course the Phillies offense
• 56:39
  Speaker 5: is not that good. Overall, He's got a thirty two
• 56:41
  Speaker 5: to ten strikeout walk ratio, twenty seven hits a lout
• 56:44
  Speaker 5: on thirty nine innings. That's all pretty good. Those numbers
• 56:47
  Speaker 5: are good. The strikeout race is a little low, but
• 56:49
  Speaker 5: he's not a huge strikeout pitcher.
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 56:52
  Speaker 5: Phillies, Yeah, I do think their offense is going to
• 56:54
  Speaker 5: turn it around more at some point.
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: They've started to kind of do that.
• 56:58
  Speaker 5: So I'm not gonna say they're actually bad, but they've
• 57:00
  Speaker 5: been performing pretty bad this year. Suarez, obviously because he
• 57:04
  Speaker 5: was on Philly for I think, like his entire career, yeah,
• 57:07
  Speaker 5: up to this point, which, by the way, that should
• 57:10
  Speaker 5: motivate him more because this will be the first time
• 57:12
  Speaker 5: he faces the team that he spent his entire career with.
• 57:15
  Speaker 5: I think he's gonna want to pitch well against them here.
• 57:18
  Speaker 5: But that means they also haven't really seen him. Only
• 57:20
  Speaker 5: three of their hitters have faced him before, and it's
• 57:22
  Speaker 5: obviously the three hitters that have been on different teams.
• 57:26
  Speaker 5: He's held him to a one sixty seven average four
• 57:28
  Speaker 5: to eighty eight ohps in eighteen at bats, three to
• 57:31
  Speaker 5: one strike out walk ratio, and all of the hits
• 57:34
  Speaker 5: are from Trey Turner three hits, two doubles. Nobody else
• 57:38
  Speaker 5: in their lineup has reached base against Suarez before. And
• 57:42
  Speaker 5: while they're gonna know what he does, you know, because
• 57:44
  Speaker 5: obviously he was on their team for so long, they
• 57:46
  Speaker 5: know what he throws. They've probably seen him in like
• 57:48
  Speaker 5: batting practice and whatever, but that doesn't compare to facing
• 57:54
  Speaker 5: him in a real game, you know. So I think
• 57:55
  Speaker 5: Suarez might pitch pretty well here. I would lean under
• 57:59
  Speaker 5: in this game. I think both pitchers actually line up
• 58:01
  Speaker 5: to pitch all right here. I don't really hate either bullpen.
• 58:04
  Speaker 5: This has been a very underconducive series. It's not my
• 58:08
  Speaker 5: favorite play, but I like the under. Eighty eight percent
• 58:11
  Speaker 5: of tickets, ninety three percent of the cash on the under.
• 58:13
  Speaker 5: The total is low at seven, and it is a
• 58:16
  Speaker 5: hitter friendly ballpark, so the oddsmakers are telling you they
• 58:19
  Speaker 5: think this is going to be a pitching.
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: Duel here with that really low total.
• 58:23
  Speaker 5: But it's also because the offense have performed horribly this year,
• 58:26
  Speaker 5: so that is part of it as well. You know,
• 58:29
  Speaker 5: the Bullpens I think are decent enough that they could
• 58:32
  Speaker 5: both hold this game under as well.
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: This one's not gonna be on my card.
• 58:36
  Speaker 5: I think I actually like it a little bit less
• 58:38
  Speaker 5: than the the other one. What was the other one
• 58:41
  Speaker 5: that I mentioned that I like the under in oh,
• 58:43
  Speaker 5: Yeah Detroit the Mets. I think I like that under
• 58:46
  Speaker 5: a little bit better than this one. But yeah, I
• 58:49
  Speaker 5: lean under in this game. Nonetheless, it looks like it
• 58:51
  Speaker 5: might be a little bit of a public side though,
• 58:53
  Speaker 5: but you're getting a little bit more leeway with this under.
• 58:55
  Speaker 5: And Lozardo, I mean, his overall numbers this year do
• 58:59
  Speaker 5: worry me quite a bit, which is not really a
• 59:02
  Speaker 5: concern in that other game with Yeah Detroit and Mets,
• 59:06
  Speaker 5: Montero and McClain. You know what, I'm really tempted, man,
• 59:11
  Speaker 5: I am tempted to add that under hang on, because
• 59:15
  Speaker 5: it's like, why haven't I done that? Do I really
• 59:17
  Speaker 5: want that many plays today?
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: Though?
• 59:23
  Speaker 5: Looking at you know the where the money's coming in.
• 59:25
  Speaker 5: You know what, I'm gonna add it last minute, even
• 59:28
  Speaker 5: though I'm not even talking about that particular game right now,
• 59:33
  Speaker 5: I'm trying to see what the best price is out
• 59:35
  Speaker 5: there on that It looks like it's closer to seven.
• 59:39
  Speaker 5: Now on that game Tigers and Mets, what's the first
• 59:42
  Speaker 5: five number look like?
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: Oh, holy crap. You can get a much.
• 59:47
  Speaker 5: Better number on the first five and exclude Detroit's bullpen.
• 59:52
  Speaker 5: There at the Lion book that starts with the m
• 59:55
  Speaker 5: I see an under Ford a pretty good price the room,
• 59:59
  Speaker 5: and his book is giving you an okay price on
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 5: it as well. Yeah, you know what, all right, let's
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 5: do it. Although I don't trust the bullpens enough. And
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 5: what did I say? I think that game went into
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 5: extra innings yesterday? Right, Mets Detroit? Yeah, so the bullpens
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 5: are a little bit used.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: You know what, We're gonna go. Let's do it. Let's
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: add another best bet on the fly here. Usually when
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: I do this, it doesn't go well. But we're doing
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: it here. Let's go. Dude.
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 5: I know I'm skitz so today I apologize, but we're
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 5: gonna do it. Detroit and the Mets first five under four.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 5: I found it minus one.
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: Eighteen out there.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 5: That's the extra play. There you go, so we have
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 5: one extra play there. I'm not gonna add the Red
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 5: Sox game though, I don't know. I just I have
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 5: more concerns with it than I do with that one
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 5: Detroit and the Mets actually looks pretty good to me.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 5: I just can't really think of a good enough reason
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 5: why I didn't have that on my card. So probably
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 5: my weakest of the three plays I'm gonna give out
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 5: here in Major League Baseball though.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: That's your extra play there.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 5: We have three more games to talk about. One of
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 5: them does have a play for me. One of them
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 5: is a huge game between the Cubs in Atlanta. I'm
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 5: gonna be right back and then we'll finish this off.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 5: We don't have two more games. Too many more games
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 5: to talk about here, all right. Next game up is, yeah,
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 5: Cubs Braves. The Braves are on the verge of sweet peer.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 5: They won four games in a row against the Dodgers
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 5: and the Cobs.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: Braves looking really good.
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 5: You know, people may have thought, you know, this start
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 5: was kind of ridiculous for the Braves.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: I was not that high on the Braves.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 5: Coming into this season, you know, with the profile suspension,
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 5: with all their starters being injured, although they did.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: Get Strider back already.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 5: But yeah, they're playing well against some of the other
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 5: teams in the National League or in baseball really, so
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 5: that looks good, but now they're on the verge of sweep. Now, Atlanta,
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 5: are they gonna look ahead to the Red Sox?
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 5: I mean, the Red Sox have a lot of history,
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 5: but I don't know if they're really gonna look ahead
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 5: to that. The Cubs have.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: Their of course, we know who their rivalry is.
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 5: They have their Subway Series if you want to call
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 5: it that against the White Sox coming up, so possible.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: You know, will they look ahead to that? I don't
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: really know.
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 5: Probably not, No, I mean no way, because the Cubs
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 5: are trying to avoid a sweep here. They've lost four
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 5: games in a row, so I think the Cubs are
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 5: gonna show up for this game with a little bit
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 5: more motivation here, whereas that Atlanta maybe starts taking them
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 5: a little bit lightly after beating them twice.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: Atlanta used four relief pitchers yesterday.
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 5: Though they've had one of the best bullpens in baseball,
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 5: Cubs bullpen hasn't been bad either, They only use one
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 5: relief pitcher, so I think both bullpens still set up
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 5: okay here, but the Cubs are the more rested bullpen here.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: The Cubs are ranked ninth.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 5: In bullpen, Atlanta number one in bullpen hitting wise, Atlanta
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 5: also number one, and the Cubs are number five right now,
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 5: both teams capable offensively, but both starters might actually be
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 5: be capable of holding these offenses a little bit in check.
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 5: Ben Brown is a bit of a question mark dude,
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 5: Like Ben Brown for the Cubs, He's always had pretty
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 5: good stuff, but like he could definitely.
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: Strike guys out at a high rate.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 5: He's got good stuff, but I don't know, I mean,
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 5: he struggled like throughout his major league career so far.
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 5: He's twenty six now. He looked pretty good back in
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 5: twenty twenty four. Last year, Yeah, he was just all
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 5: over the place. They kept moving him back and forth
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 5: between the rotation and the bullpen. Did have a really
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 5: high strikeout rate last year. It was just I don't know,
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 5: he was way too or he was, yeah, too hittable.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 5: But I actually think he got a little bit unlucky
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 5: last year to some extent. So I actually think Brown
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 5: is not that bad this year. He is a one
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 5: point eight two ERA one point nine to one whip
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 5: home road splits are not really significant for him, but
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 5: he's made almost all of his appearances out of the bullpen,
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 5: so we have to be concerned about that. He's only
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 5: made one start so far, and that was because the
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 5: Cubs of all these injuries to their starting rotation. I
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 5: don't know how the Cubs are continuing to do this
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 5: because they lost Kate Horton was a really good starter.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 5: They just lost who else did they lose? They lost
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 5: Matthew Boyd, So I think Brown filled his spot in
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 5: the rotation. Brown went four shutout innings, four no hit
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 5: innings against Texas. He only threw forty six pitches in
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 5: that outing as well. But you know what they're trying
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 5: to do is they're trying to not overwork him. They're
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 5: trying to ramp him up. So maybe it made sense
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 5: to take him out at that point. Though you never
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 5: like to see a guy exit when he has a
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 5: low pitch count. He's got a no hitter going on,
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 5: but it's a good sign.
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: He pitched well.
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 5: But it wasn't against a weak Texas lineup in a
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 5: very pitch of friendly stadium.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: But that was good to get, you know, his feet
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: wet again.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 5: As a starter, I think he might be able to
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 5: pitch Okay here, I'm against Atlanta are actually good, although
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 5: they only have eighteen at bats against him, small sample,
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 5: but that doesn't mean he's kind of unfamiliar to them too.
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 5: They have no extra base hits against him, ten strikeouts,
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 5: two walks, one sixty seven average for seventeen ops, but
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 5: some of those might have been in relief appearances. Remember,
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 5: but Brown has pitched well against Atlanta, and I actually
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 5: do think he's a pretty good pitcher, dude, despite the
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 5: numbers you know last year, I actually think he's pretty good.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 5: Chris Sale is pitching for Atlanta. Obviously we know he's good.
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 5: Two point two ERA point eight eight whip. ESPN has
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 5: to continue rubbing it into my face by keeping up
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 5: videos from years ago when he was on the Red Sox.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 5: Sale has been really good at home point seventy five
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 5: home ERA. Yeah, I mean ridiculous, he's been.
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 5: Just He's had one bad start on the season at
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 5: on the road at Anaheim, and other than that he's
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 5: been pretty much untouchable. He's allowed one or fewer earned
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 5: run in all but his most recent outing, aside from
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 5: the Anaheim one.
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 5: Allowed one or fewer earned runs in every outing except
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 5: the Dodgers game in his last outing, where he still
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 5: only allowed to earn runs, had seven strike cuts and
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 5: didn't walk anybody in seven innings. Yeah, I mean he's
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 5: dominating right now. Two or fewer earned runs and five
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 5: outings in a row. Pretty high strikeout rate here. Fifty
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 5: six strike cuts and forty nine innings only thirty one
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 5: hits allowed, twelve walks. Yeah, this is some really good
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 5: stuff from Sale. Numbers against the Cubs are.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: Not as good as you would think.
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 5: Fifty eight bats, nineteen strike cuts, eight walks. Six of
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 5: the walks are Bregman though, so yeah, Bregman actually has
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 5: hit two of them runs off him. So Bregman's like
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 5: the one guy that's actually had some success against him
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 5: really in a decent sized sample. But he has held
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 5: him to a two forty batting average. Seven sixty five
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 5: opens is a little bit high, somewhat because of those
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 5: home runs. I still think Chrisale is going to pitch
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 5: well here. I still think an under is probably the
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 5: lean in this one. Although I know, you know, the bullpen,
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 5: like Atlanta's bullpen got a little bit used, we're still
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 5: looking at two pretty good bullpens, Chicago's the Cubs is
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 5: the lesser of the two bullpens, but they're rest and
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 5: the money looks like it's coming in towards the over.
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 5: I think an under makes some sense here, the total
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 5: seven and a half on the full game. Brown is
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 5: more of a mystery though, and you don't know how
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 5: deep he's gonna go into the game, so that's kind
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 5: of concern. The concern there, but the money's actually coming
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 5: in on the Cubs seventy percent of tickets on Atlanta,
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 5: fifty five percent of the cash on the Cubs. I
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 5: don't really have a huge disagreement with it. I mean,
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 5: you know, you're paying a premium for Chrissale. They're around
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 5: minus one sixty five here on the money line. If
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 5: you wanted to go split bet plus one and a
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 5: half run line and the other part of it on
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 5: the money line with the Cubs, take them.
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 2: As the dog. Then if they lose by one, you'll
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 2: push the I don't really hate that because again, I
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: think the situation does favor the Cubs here.
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 5: I think Brown is an underrated pitcher. He might be
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 5: able to duel in this game. And then the bullpen
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 5: advantage in Atlanta has is not huge really because both
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 5: bullpens are good and Atlanta's the less rested one, So
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 5: those are my thoughts on that game. Kansas City at
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 5: the White Sox. The White Sox are on the verge
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 5: of a sweep. They've won four games in a row,
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 5: so they might take Kansas City a little bit less
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 5: seriously here, although they only won each game six to five,
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 5: so it's not like they've been blowing them out. But
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 5: of course, remember the White Sox do play the Cubs
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 5: over the weekends. That's a pretty big potential look ahead spot.
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 5: Kansas City is going to play Saint Louis over the weekend.
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 5: That is their rival, obviously their inter league geographic rival.
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 5: Don't know if that's going to be a look ahead
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 5: or not, although Saint Louis does have a pretty good
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 5: record this year. Both of these bullpens have been bad,
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 5: Kansas City and the White Sox. Kansas City, who's three
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 5: relief pitch?
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: Yesterday?
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 5: The White Sox used four. I thought it was an
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 5: extra inning game, but I guess it was not. But
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 5: both bullpens are pretty untrustworthy.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: They're ranked White Sox twenty fifth, Royals twenty sixth in
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: bullpen hitting has actually been good for both teams. Believe
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: it or not.
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 5: White Sox are ninth in offense Kansas City twelve. Both
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 5: these teams have been climbing the offensive standings there. Chris
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 5: Bubitch is pitching for Kansas City. He's been pretty good
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 5: three point five ERA, one point one to seven whip,
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 5: not really significant home roads splits, slightly worse on the road,
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 5: but not by much. This month, he's had some walk issues,
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 5: although his team has won four games in a row
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 5: that he's pitched, and he hasn't allowed more than three
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 5: or in runs in any of them. But he has
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 5: six walks in his last twelve and two thirds innings,
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 5: which isn't great. He's walked too many guys in a
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 5: lot of outings in a row. Actually he's allowed Actually,
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 5: if you go throughout the course of the entire season,
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 5: he's only walked fewer than three twice, so that's not good.
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 5: His walk number is a concern, including his last couple
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 5: of starts where he walked six and struck out twelve,
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 5: which is decent. He's got forty seven strikeouts on the
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 5: season in forty six and a third innings.
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: That's pretty good.
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 5: Thirty one hits allowed, that's pretty good, but twenty three walks.
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: That's the problem. Man. He's gotta stop walking guys.
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 5: Other than that, his numbers are good, but he has
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 5: pretty much dominated the White Sox throughout his history though
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 5: forty career at bats, seventeen to five strike out walk
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 5: ratio won seventy five average, allowed four to sixty seven ops.
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 5: He faced them this year and he had his best
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 5: start of the season against them, went seven innings.
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: This was in Kansas City.
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 5: He two hit the White Sox, shut them out, had
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 5: eleven strikeouts in one walk.
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: That that was the outing where he had the fewest walks.
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 5: So yeah, he does historically dominate the White Sox, so
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 5: he has a really good matchup for himself here.
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: He's also the better pitcher against.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 5: Anthony Kay, who is not good. Kay has a four
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 5: point eight ninety RA one point five to seven whip
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 5: for the White Sox.
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: He's kind of a converted reliever.
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 5: He's been better at home though, three point nine to
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 5: four homey RA. Actually has not been too bad this month.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 5: He's allowed two horned runs over ten innings this month
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 5: over two starts, ten strike ups, three walks.
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: That's not really too bad.
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 5: So he is actually pitching a little bit better, getting
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 5: used to being a starter, but his overall numbers don't
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 5: look good. Twenty five strikeouts and thirty five innings seventeen walks.
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: That's pretty high.
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 5: Thirty eight hits allowed not very good either, but he
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 5: looks to be trending in the right direction. He did
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 5: face Kansas City this year on the road, picked up
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 5: a win in that game. He shut them out for
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 5: five and two thirds innings, three hits allowed, two walks,
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 5: six strikeouts. That was a pretty good outing from him,
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 5: and in fact, his numbers against the Royals are pretty good,
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 5: but it's a small twenty two at bat sample size
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 5: seven strikeouts, one walk, one thirty six average three to
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 5: ninety ops. K might actually do okay in this game here.
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna lean first five under in this one. I
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 5: think both pitchers actually have a good match up here.
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 5: The money seems like it does agree sixty percent of
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 5: tickets on the over, ninety two percent of the cash
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 5: on the under.
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 2: I still don't really.
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 5: Know if K is totally trustworthy, though I would trust
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 5: Boo Bitch a little bit more to get that job done.
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 5: I obviously I don't want to include the bullpens. If
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 5: you go under here, this is not a play for me,
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 5: but I lean first five under here. The total in
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 5: the full games eight, you're probably looking at four four
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 5: and a half on the first five under.
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: That would be my lean. In that game, I lean
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: to Kansas.
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 5: City because they're in a situation where they're trying to
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 5: avoid the sweep. The White Sox might look ahead to
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 5: the Cubs. I think Boo Bitch is more trustworthy than KA.
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 5: I don't think there's a bullpen edge, particularly one way
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 5: or the other. But you got eighty one percent of tickets,
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 5: only sixty five percent of the cash on Kansas City,
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 5: So the money is fading Kansas City.
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 2: Some of it might be because they're.
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 5: Minus thirty five on the money line here, like maybe
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 5: that price is a little bit too high for Kansas
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 5: City on the road. And as I just showed you,
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 5: k has good enough matchup numbers that he might be
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 5: able to keep this game close. But I would prefer
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 5: the more established pitcher and the better situation, which is
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 5: the Royals. So I do lean to the Royals in
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 5: that game. But I think I prefer first five under.
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 5: And that leads us to the MLB Network night game
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 5: in California, the late game. Pretty much every game is
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 5: gonna be over when this game starts, and we're not
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 5: going over in this game. In fact, we were going
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 5: to go under in Giants Dodgers here.
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: This game. This series has been weird.
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 5: The Dodgers lost the first two games, both of them
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 5: hit at least eight runs, and then last night we
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 5: finally had a lower scoring game, four nothing win for
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 5: the Dodgers San Francisco. I mean, their offense has been
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 5: so bad this season that you don't you gotta think
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 5: their offense is not going to do what it did
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 5: in the first two games this series.
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 2: It's not gonna continue.
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 5: And when we look at the pitching matchup, I think
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 5: that also kind of tells you that will be the
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 5: case here. Finally, the Dodgers were able to get a win.
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 5: You know, I thought they were gonna win the last
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 5: couple of games, but they did get the win yesterday.
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 5: Otani shut the Giants down. I think that maybe that'll
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 5: start some new momentum here.
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: It might end that.
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 5: Hot streak that San Francisco had with their offense. The
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 5: Dodgers might finally start pitching better. The Dodgers ended a
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 5: four game losing streak, so that might help the Dodgers
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 5: win again here and regain their momentum. I think they
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 5: will show up here because they don't want to lose,
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 5: you know, a series of San Francisco, and I don't
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 5: think the Dodgers are gonna be looking ahead to their
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 5: geographic rival of Anaheim, you know, I mean, Anaheim has
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 5: not been good, so.
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: Probably not. San Francisco plays, of course, the Bay Area
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: arrival in their series over the weekend they're playing against
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: the A's. I don't know if that's gonna be a
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: look ahead. Probably not.
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 5: I mean, the Giants are probably gonna get up for
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 5: any game they have against the Dodgers.
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: Pretty much.
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 5: As far as the bullpen usage, the Dodgers only used
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 5: two relief pitchers yesterday, Sar Francisco used two as well.
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 5: Both bullpen's set up all right here, so that's going
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 5: to factor into our under here.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: I like both bullpens.
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 5: Dodgers bullpen's been pretty solid, the rank sixth right now
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 5: in bullpen. The Giants are only ranked twentieth, but their
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 5: ERA is still in the top like five, so I
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 5: don't think their bullpen is actually that bad, even though
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 5: I know, whip matters more, and the whip isn't that good,
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 5: but you know, I think with like a few good
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 5: out like bullpen outings from them, they're gonna move up
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 5: into the mediocre range again at the very least. So
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 5: I don't hate the Giants bullpen at all, and I
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 5: like the starting pitching. Of course, Landon Roup is on
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 5: the mound, because why wouldn't he be when we're going
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 5: with an under man. I think that he's underrated. Still,
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 5: he's been good at three point h nine R one
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 5: point one whip pitching for the Giants this season. He's
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 5: been better on the road by more than two runs
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 5: on his RA two point h one road era, which
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 5: is interesting because San Francisco is a pitcher friendly ballpark.
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 5: Raup has been better on the road, so that's a
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 5: good sign for this outing here. I know he didn't
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 5: pitch well in his last two outings though, so his current.
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: Form is a little bit iffy.
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 5: He only went eight and the third innings, and those
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 5: two didn't make it five innings in either of them.
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 5: He did hold Pittsburgh to one run last time out, though,
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 5: and he had eight strikeouts and four innings, so his
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 5: strikeout rate is still here, so that does tell you
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 5: he is still fooling hitters. He has fourteen strikeouts over
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 5: that span in five walks, but eleven hits. I mean,
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 5: I think he got a little bit unlucky. He's got
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 5: to get the walk number under control a little bit.
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 5: Ralp is a good strikeout pitcher, though he strikes out
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 5: guys with his crazy breaking stuff. He's got fifty one
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 5: strikeouts and forty three and two thirds innings on the season.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 5: He's only allowed twenty nine hits, so he is not
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 5: been hit a ball, and you know, his walk number
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 5: is not too bad at nineteen on the season. He's
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 5: also more of a ground ball pitcher, which doesn't really
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 5: matter in this stadium, but I just kind of like
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 5: to see that. He's allowed more than three or and
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 5: runs only twice this season. He did pitch against the
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 5: Dodgers back on April twenty first at home, and he
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 5: one hit them. Through five inning. He's allowed one ear
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 5: and run, did walk five guys. That's a little bit
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 5: of an issue there, but seven strikeouts. He generally pitched
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 5: pretty well, and he pitches well historically against the Dodgers.
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 5: Believe it or not, he has forty eight at bats
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 5: against them, one sixty seven average, allowed, five to ninety
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 5: three ops, eighteen strikeouts, pretty high strikeout rate, and eleven walks.
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 5: But again, five of those are in that last outing,
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 5: and four of them are Freddy Freeman, So that walk
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 5: number is a little bit misleading because the you know,
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 5: a lot of the walks are kind of in.
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: Like they go. A lot of the walks are just.
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 5: Accumulated in like an outline, like one outlier start or
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 5: against one specific hitter. So I actually like raup to
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 5: pitch pretty well here. I also like I at she
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 5: and to pitch pretty well. I think we're getting two
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 5: starters that are definitely capable that are being undervalued in
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 5: the market.
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: Here Shean for the Dodgers.
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 5: His numbers don't look that good four point seven to
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 5: nine ey Ra, one point three to five Whit, but
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 5: he's been good at home, so he get the better
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 5: of both pitchers home road splits here three point nine
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 5: to eight Homie Ra, So I like that. He also
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 5: didn't make it five innings in either of his last
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 5: two starts, but he had fifteen strikeouts and one walk
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 5: over that span of nine to third innings. So even
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 5: though he had too many hits allowed fourteen. This is
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 5: the case with both of these starting pitchers today, and
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 5: they both had shortened outings in their last two outings,
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 5: but they both had a ton of strikeouts, so it's
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 5: not like their stuff has disappeared.
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: You know, they're both.
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 5: Fooling hitters and with she and he's also not walking anybody,
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 5: so that's good. Oh, the course of the season, his
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 5: numbers are pretty good. Forty three strikeouts, walks, thirty eight hits,
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 5: a lout, and thirty five and two thirds innings. Again,
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 5: that's too many hits, but a lot of it was
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 5: in those last two starts, and one of them was
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 5: against the.
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: Braves in his most recent outy.
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 5: But he still held them to one earned run in
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 5: that outing and had seven strike cuts in one walks.
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 5: That's not exactly a bad performance. And in fact, he's
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 5: had seven or more strike cuts in his last three starts,
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 5: which were all against teams.
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: That have hit well. Atlanta, Saint Louis and the Cobs
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: is better of the two.
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 5: We're both at home and then you know, to finish
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 5: this handicap off, Shean dominates the Giants. He has thirty
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 5: four at bats against him, only have three hits off him,
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 5: no extra base hits, twelve strikeouts, three walks, eighty eight
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 5: batting average allout against him two point fifty oh ps.
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 5: This is a pretty dominant match up here based on
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 5: these numbers, So I like that. I think both pitchers
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 5: are going to pitch well in this game. And then
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 5: you know, I think the bullpens can kind of hold
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 5: us in the game as well. So we're going under
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 5: in this game as well.
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 2: We don't see the money on the total here, the
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: totals at eight full game, we're going full game on this.
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 5: I founded at reduced juice because the money's kind of
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 5: on the over eight here. You might be able to
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 5: find an eight and a half, but I see the
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 5: under juice that minus one twenty. So I decided not
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 5: to do that because there's not that much of a
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 5: difference between eight and a half and eight. The odd
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 5: numbers are the key numbers, So I think taking the
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 5: cheaper price and going under eight makes more sense unless
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 5: you can find an under eight that's at about like
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 5: under eight and a half, I mean that's at like
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 5: minus one fifteen or better than I might start to say, Okay,
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 5: take the minus eight take the under eight and a half,
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 5: all right, but for now the eight is the better
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 5: price that I see.
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: The money's coming in on San Francisco, So I like
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: that because that means that the the professional money seems
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: to think Raup is going to have a good start here,
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 2: and I think he's actually the more questionable of the two,
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 2: like Shean does have really good matchup numbers, sixty four
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets on the Dodgers and sixty percent of
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: the cash on San Francisco. And of course the Dodgers
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 2: have the way better offense, so that's the other thing.
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 5: If the money is coming in on San Francisco, that
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 5: seems to indicate the Dodgers' offense is going to be
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 5: held a little bit more in check then you would think.
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 5: So that does I think correlate to an under here,
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 5: like the Giants cannot get involved in a slug fest.
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean.
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 5: And as far as you know the hitting, I don't
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 5: think I showed the hitting. But obviously the Dodgers are good.
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 5: They're number two in hitting. San Francisco is the second
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 5: worst hitting team though at twenty ninth, So that does
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 5: help us with the under as well. That one of
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 5: the offenses is really bad, and the market seems to
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 5: be indicating the other offense is going to be held
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 5: a little bit in check.
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 2: So that's what we're doing under in that game. Man
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 2: for a Thursday.
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 5: It's gonna be a long video, but we don't have
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 5: too much left to talk about. There's no NBA. We
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 5: have two WNBA games on Amazon Prime. The first of
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 5: the two is Minnesota at Dallas. I do not have
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 5: a play in this game. Dallas is coming up a
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 5: kind of ugly loss, I guess, although I think they
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 5: were an underdog at home against Atlanta.
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 2: Atlanta of course where Angel Reese is now.
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 5: But it was kind of a letdown spot for Dallas
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 5: because Dallas beat Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever in
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 5: their first game, so kind of a letdown. Maybe it's
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 5: gonna be a bounce back here for Dallas. Minnesota has
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 5: been one of the best teams in the league. Last
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 5: couple of seasons. Minnesota's won and one. They also lost
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 5: to Atlanta. They beat Phoenix in their last game, but
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 5: remember that was a huge revenge game from Minnesota, so
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 5: they could be in a letdown spot here now because
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 5: if you remember Minnesota was the best team in the
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 5: league last year. They were in the number one seed
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 5: and Phoenix upset them in the playoffs and knocked them out,
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 5: So that was a big revenge spot. So I did
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 5: give out a lean on Minnesota. It wasn't a play
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 5: for me because I felt that Phoenix also was in
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 5: a bounce back spot or something. But Minnesota got the win,
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 5: huge revenge win outright as an underdog. So I think
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 5: Minnesota is in the worst spot here. I think they
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 5: were in a letdown spot. And people are gonna look
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 5: at this and remember last year when, of course Dallas
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 5: was bad enough last year. They got another number one
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 5: draft pick this year and of course picked their other
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 5: number one draft.
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: Picks lesbian lover. Minnesota was the number one team in
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: the league last year, and now you're gonna look at
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 2: this line. Dallas is a four point favorite.
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 5: Like I think, that's just not gonna jive with what
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 5: the public thinks, you know what I mean. So I'll
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 5: lean to Dallas here. This one is not my play,
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 5: but I agree with the Dallas side here. I don't
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 5: know if I'm quite wanting to lay four points with them,
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 5: but that's the way I would lean seventy two tickets
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 5: ninety four percent of the cash on Dallas, so the
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 5: money seems like it agrees with that. The play that
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna give out is a zigzag in the other game.
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 5: And speaking of not wanting to lay four points, well,
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 5: we're gonna lay eleven and a half instead with the
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 5: New York Liberty against the expansion team Portland Fire. And
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 5: why do we want to do this, Well, because it's
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 5: a zigzag spot. The Liberty just had to play Portland
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 5: in the last game. They're playing in the same venue
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 5: again here, and the Liberty lost the game outright as
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 5: eleven and a half point favorites, so we're getting the
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 5: same number here. What do I always say when a
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 5: big favorite has a horrible game and they lose the
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 5: game outright, you want to look for them to bounce
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 5: back in the next game.
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 2: And also when a team pulls off a.
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 5: Big upset, double digit upset, you want to fade them
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 5: in the next game.
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 2: But we have both going for us here.
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 5: And because it's the same two teams, that means that
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 5: the Liberty just saw Portland, so they know what went
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 5: wrong in that game. They're the way better team. I
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 5: think the Liberty are one of the top teams in
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 5: the league this year. Portland is probably one of the worst.
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 2: The Liberty.
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 5: You know, I think they can make the adjustments here
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 5: and bounce back. And I think part of the reason
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 5: why they did bad in that game. If you remember
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 5: what my handicap was in that game, I leaned to
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 5: Portland to cover the number in that game. I did
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 5: not call for an outright win, but I did say
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 5: the Liberty were traveling to the Pacific Coast for the
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 5: first time this year. They had played on the East
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 5: coast the first two games, so I thought it was
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 5: a bad, you know, time change spot. And the other
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 5: thing is Portland's a new team, so the Liberty had
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 5: never played in that arena before, so that was a
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 5: disadvantage in them. But now, guess what, those disadvantages are
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 5: out the window now.
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 2: Because they're still in Portland.
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 5: They're now adjusted to the time zone difference, and they
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 5: just played in that stadium already. So all those disadvantages
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 5: they had in that first game they're out the window now,
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 5: and now they have advantages because they saw what Portland did.
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 5: You know that was maybe kind of the other disadvantage
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 5: was that they didn't know what Portland was gonna do
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 5: because they'd never seen this Portland team before. But Portland,
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 5: you know, I mean, there's still a new team.
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 2: They're gonna be.
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 5: Growing paints here with these you know, teams that you
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 5: build out of an expansion draft. Like, it's not like
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 5: the you know, chemistry still needs time to develop. And
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 5: then if you look at what happened in this game,
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 5: the stat sheet is kind of interesting. Both team shot
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 5: really well in the game, so I expect that to
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 5: regress too, so an under. Actually I don't do like
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 5: WNBA totals at all, but an under would make sense
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 5: to me in this game because the last game, both
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 5: teams scored in the nineties and both teams shot crazy high.
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 5: I mean these percentages, both teams shooting fifty percent or above,
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 5: both teams hitting almost.
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 2: Half their threes.
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 5: Those are good percentages for an NBA game. And this
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 5: is the WNBA, and I'm sorry, but these ladies can't shoot.
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 5: They do not shoot as well as NBA players, so
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 5: I expect some pretty major regression there as well, So
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 5: I would not disagree with an under in this game.
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 5: The total in the last game is one seventy four
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 5: and a half. This total is uh at one seventy
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 5: six now, so it's gone up one and a half
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 5: points basically just because of the last game. So an
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 5: under makes a lot of sense to me in this
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 5: game too, which I know doesn't seem like it correlates
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 5: with the side here, but we are gonna go with
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 5: the side here anyway, just because it's the zigzag.
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 2: I think it makes sense. But yes, the under makes
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: sense to me as well.
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 5: But the other thing, if you look at this game,
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 5: it was not what it looked like on the scoreboard.
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 5: The Liberty were winning seventy seven percent of the game.
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 5: They led the game by double digits. They were leading
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 5: by thirteen at one point in the game, and they
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 5: had the lead for the majority of the game. They
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 5: won the rebound battle. They lost the turnover battle, which
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 5: I think they can clean up. That's part of the
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 5: reason they lost. But the Liberty were the better team
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 5: in this game, dude. They won the rebound battle and
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 5: led for most of the game and then somehow lost
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 5: the game.
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 2: At the end. They were winning the game by double digits.
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 5: In the middle of the game, you know, for decent stretches,
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 5: the Liberty were looking like they were gonna run away
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 5: with this game.
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 2: But this does happen in the WNBA. The WNBA has
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 2: ridiculous runs.
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 5: In it where teams will just stop scoring completely, but
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 5: hopefully more of those are gonna be on the side
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 5: of Portland this time. But yes, this game was not
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 5: what it looked like on the scoreboard, really, and the
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 5: Liberty had a horrible fourth quarter. They were winning by
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 5: seven headed into the fourth quarter and they got outscored
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 5: by nine in the fourth quarter, and that was the
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 5: only quarter they were held under twenty three points.
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 2: So as long as they.
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 5: Can avoid a really bad quarter like that, I think
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 5: they're gonna be able to make the adjustments here and
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 5: win this thing. So yeah, I mean the under. I
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 5: do like the under quite a bit now that I
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 5: think about it more. Look at that box scre I'm
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 5: just not really that much of a totals guy. But
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 5: we're gonna lay the points to the Liberty, you know.
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 5: I could see this being a game where the Liberty
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 5: win this game like ninety to seventy or something in
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 5: that range, you know what I mean. So Portland's team
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 5: total under makes a lot of sense to me in
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 5: this game as well. But we're just gonna lay the points.
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 5: I think it's a zigzag spot and the money does
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 5: agree with that. By the way, fifty eight percent of the.
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 2: Tickets on Portland and fifty four percent of the cash,
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 2: so the public looks like it's on Portland with less
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 2: of the money on them, thinking, oh my god, if
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: they can win the game outright, of course they're gonna
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 2: cover an eleven and a half point spread here, So no,
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna lay the points.
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 5: But yes, the under actually makes a lot of sense
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 5: to me in that game as well. Okay, you know,
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 5: I'm becoming more of a guy that pays attention to totals now,
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 5: even though I've been doing this for almost two decades
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 5: and not really paying attention to totals. All right, let's talk
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 5: about NHL and then that'll be it. There are two
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 5: NHL games tonight. Montre on Buffalo is the first game up.
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 5: These games are TNT true TV HBO Max. Buffalo won
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 5: the last game to even the series back at two
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 5: to two. And you know I talk about when a
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 5: series is tied to two, usually get intense defense. So
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 5: an under does make sense, but I just don't really
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 5: want to do it with the way these empty net
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 5: goals happen and whatever, I'm not gonna do it, but
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 5: the total, you can get it at under six at
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 5: a decent price.
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 2: So that way, if.
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 5: It's two to two and then there's gonna be one
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 5: more goal, you're still fine with the under.
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 2: The money's actually coming in on the over. I don't
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 2: agree with that.
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 5: I think when you have a two to two series,
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 5: you tend to get intense defense. Although I know the
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 5: last last game went under at five.
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 2: But none of these.
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 5: Games of the series have been high scoring except for
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 5: the six to two Montreal win two games ago.
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 2: The rest of these games have been six or fewer
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 2: goals scored, so or have had six or fewer. But
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 2: the side I think is a little bit more. The
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 2: side is the way that I'm actually looking in this game.
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 5: Well, I'm not going to play it, but I'm paying
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 5: more attention to the side here as I always do.
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 5: I think the road teams actually are not really at
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 5: that much of a disadvantage in this series because the
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 5: travel is not that crazy. Both teams actually were decent
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 5: on the road this year, so I.
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 2: Don't think that's much that's that much of a concern
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 2: for these teams.
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 5: This game is back in Buffalo now. But what I'm
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 5: looking at is what happened in the last game. Yeah,
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 5: Buffalo won, but if you look at the and I
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 5: leaned to Buffalo in the game, but if you look
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 5: at what happened in the game, Buffalo scored two hour
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 5: play goals and that's how they won the game. Their
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 5: last two goals were both power plays and even strength.
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 5: Montreal won the game two to one, with the excuse me, no, no,
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 5: it was one one, my mistake, it even strength. The
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 5: game was one to one, my mistake. But Montreal won
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 5: a lot of the statistical stuff in the game. The
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 5: game was close the whole way, and Montreal had more opportunities.
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 5: They had thirty shots to Buffalo's twenty two. Montreal out
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 5: hit them as well, and the face off percentage was
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 5: pretty close, so the Buffalo did win it slightly, but
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 5: the stats indicate that Montreal was the slightly better team
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 5: in this game. So that's kind of what I'm looking
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 5: at here, is that that was a little bit of
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 5: a misleading result. So I'm gonna lean to Montreal to
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 5: win this one here. Even though they're on the road,
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 5: they're not really that bad of a road team, sixty
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 5: five percent of the tickets around Buffalo fifty one percent
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 5: of the cash on Montreal, So the money is indicating
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 5: on the Canadians, and I don't want either of these
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 5: teams to win, So go Carolina, I guess, you know.
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 5: Even though Montreal was my grandfather's home city, his city
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 5: of birth, and his team, but he actually liked the
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 5: Bruins as well. Even though Montreal one of the Bruins,
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 5: they're like the Bruins' main.
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 2: Rivalry, but he rooted it for both of them. Whatever.
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 5: I never really knew him though, because he was an
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 5: alcoholic and he died when I was a child. Anyway,
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 5: Buffalo is about minus one twenty here. I would lean
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 5: to Montreal as the slight dog in that one. I
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 5: think they have a pretty decent chance to.
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 2: Win that game.
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 5: And the other game is Vegas Anaheim. Vegas won in
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 5: a close game in the last game they were able
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 5: to win three to two.
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 2: Of course, you know, I have Vegas winning the Western
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 2: Conference in my bracket.
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 5: Don't know if that's gonna happen. Still don't know if
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 5: they're gonna win this series. Anaheim's been good at home,
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 5: so this has been a series where I'd be more
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 5: inclined to look at the home team, And we did
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 5: get a win with Anaheim in the last home game
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 5: that they had, and I believe the home team has
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 5: won the majority of the games in this series. Anaheim
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 5: was definitely better at home this year and Vegas was
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 5: not as good on the road, So the home team
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 5: does have a little bit of an advantage in this
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 5: series more than usual.
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 2: Even though this is a close.
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 5: Geographic series, the series has definitely been very back and forth. Actually,
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 5: the road team has won two of the games in
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 5: the series so far, so the game the series has
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 5: not really been that home centric. Vegas did just win
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 5: Game five at home, though.
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 2: And it was a close game.
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 5: But if you look at the stats, yeah, I mean
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 5: there's not a whole lot to read into. The stats
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 5: are all really close. The teams were pretty close. Anaheim
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 5: had a.
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 2: Slight shot edge, Vegas had a slight physicality edge with
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 2: the hits and with the face off percentage. I think
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 2: Vegas is the slightly better team, but I don't know,
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 2: man going back to Anaheim here where Anheim's a little
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 2: bit better home. Both teams scored one power play goal
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 2: in the game, by the way, so that doesn't matter
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 2: a whole lot now. I mean, I don't know, man,
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 2: I mean that was a dramatic win in overtime for Vegas. Like,
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 2: I don't know, Anaheim falling down three to two.
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 5: Do you think Anaheim is gonna come up flat in
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 5: this game after the way they lost that game? I
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 5: don't really think so. Because you're down three to two,
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 5: you're obviously not out of this series, and.
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 2: You're at home.
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 5: You got the home game here. I think I'm gonna
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 5: lean to Anaheim here. I just think their home numbers
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 5: are better. But the money is coming in on Vegas Vegas.
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 5: At some books, Vegas is actually a slight favorite. Some
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 5: other books have Anaheim as a slight favorite. Most of
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 5: the books have Vegas is a slight favorite here, though,
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 5: which was the case the last time they were in Anaheim.
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 5: We got Anaheim at even money the last time we
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 5: played Anaheim in the game at home, I think Vegas
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 5: is the better team, but it's pretty close. Fifty eight
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 5: percent of tickets eighty four percent of the cash on Vegas.
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 5: Vegas does have more experience, though this gets to the
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 5: point where experience does.
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 2: Start to matter a little bit.
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 5: Vegas definitely has the more experienced roster here, so there
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 5: is that, and the money is indicating on Vegas for
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 5: what that's where it looks like there's a pretty strong
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 5: market read on Vegas.
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 2: Pregame still does not fixed.
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 5: Their bullshit, by the way, So we're going with wager talk,
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 5: and you know, I'm fine with supporting wager talk, of course,
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 5: because again they have the way better They're just the
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 5: way better content at this point. Man, they have the
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 5: better handicappers there, so I follow a lot of their content.
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 5: I've learned a lot from the guys that are at
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 5: that place wager Talks, so definitely a shout out to them.
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 5: All right, that's gonna do it, man. Those are my
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 5: thoughts on these games. I don't have I don't really
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 5: have a thought on the total there. The money looks
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 5: like it's somewhat indicating on the under total in that
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 5: game is a little bit higher Vegas Anaheim.
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 2: The total is at about six. Vegas does have a pretty.
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 5: Strong offense, and Anaheim is you know, kind of the
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 5: better defensive team, but they could definitely score as well.
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 5: I don't have a good thought on the total in
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 5: that one though, though A lot of these late series
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 5: games tend to go more towards the under, and that
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 5: is where that money is indicating in that game, even
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 5: though for some reason it's not in the other game.
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 5: But yeah, a lot of these games tend to be
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 5: more defensive.
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 2: But then again, you gotta worry about empty net goals.
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 5: All right, that's gonna do it my place today. We
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 5: have more plays today than I thought. We have a
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 5: bunch of unders.
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 2: In baseball.
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 5: We're gonna first five under one Washington, Cincinnati exclude those bullpens. There,
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 5: first five under Detroit and the Mets as well. I
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 5: found a four for both those numbers. We're going full
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 5: game under in Giants Dodgers. I might be a little
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 5: bit more concerned with that one at this point.
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 5: Maybe I'm going a little bit too crazy. And then
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 5: we're gonna lay the points with the New York Liberty
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 5: in WNBA in a zigzag spot, and that's.
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 2: Gonna do it. We're gonna ruin my undefeated WNBA season.
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 5: Man, We're not gonna win every bet, but we're two
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 5: and zero right now and we should be three. And oh,
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 5: I apologize for not adding Golden State as a play,
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 5: but I did mention. I felt pretty strongly about that
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 5: one back when they were playing against Phoenix off of
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 5: that ridiculous Phoenix blow out of Vegas. But we won
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 5: on that game and that set us up to win
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 5: on Vegas in the next game. So that's gonna do it.
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 5: I'll be back tomorrow at some point. I'll be back
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 5: to do that NFL season win total show. So like,
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 5: subscribe to the channel here getting notifications when we go live.
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 2: Man, we had a ton of views on the show
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 2: yesterday live.
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 5: I don't know what happened. Maybe it was a glitch
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 5: on Twitter or something. Because we're back to kind of
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 5: the normal viewership here, which is too low.
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 2: Tell people about it.
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 5: We're on audio as well, Apple Spotify, so do all
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 5: that for this show. I'm on Twitter of course and
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 5: Instagram at learn to Toad, so check that stuff out
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 5: covered in you because my yuke channel on YouTube, you
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 5: can check that out. We have a Patreon, paedron dot
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 5: com slash learn to Toad. I got to update the
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 5: feed with my latest covers that I've done, so I
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 5: apologize I'm not active enough on there. I want to
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 5: do more, you know, extremes where people can come on
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 5: and hang out with me and whatever, and I jam on,
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 5: you can do requests and whatever. I got to do
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 5: that at some point, man, I know, I keep saying
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna do it.
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 2: I said, I don't know.
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 5: It's been a thing where you know, I want to
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 5: do it not too late at night, so I'm, you know,
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 5: not going to piss off the neighbors too much because
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 5: you know they're close by.
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 2: I don't know what else do I have. That's about it. Oh,
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 2: we have Loser casts every Tuesday night. Go check that out.
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 2: We had a good show this week.
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 5: I think Giants g Spot podcast will be back at
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 5: some point as well. I know I keep saying it will.
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 5: I don't know when it's gonna happen, but it will
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 5: at some point. That's gonna do it, all right, Kyle, Yeah,
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 5: subscribe to me under a bunch of extra accounts. That's fine.
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 5: Up my subscribership, that's fine. It'll that'll make me look better.
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 5: Just if the same person is commenting constantly, that doesn't
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 5: look right. But like, yeah, if you want to subscribe
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 5: under multiple different accounts, go ahead, all right, that's gonna
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 5: do it. Peace, everybody, let's get some wins today. We're
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 5: definitely gonna have some losses today, but let's hope to
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 5: go three and one today.
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 2: Peace, but don't you go quiet. Don't you play from
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 2: the flow.
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 1: Your name still means something to somebody for a show.
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 1: Put the glass down, baby, look at me, No.
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 4: On, hold on.
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 2: Nothing now.
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 4: Now, hold on, hold.
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 3: On, let me fo.
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 4: The lock by hon.
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 3: Don't get the crown. Hold on, hold on and stay
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 3: with me now