Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 79 - 7/19/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 79 - 7/19/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 79 of the All Systems Go Sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Friday, the work week is almost over, the weekend is
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ahead of us and more importantly gamblers vacation has come to an
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end. Hope you guys enjoyed your very
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quiet week with not too many sweats to choose from.
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But you know what, I'm actually very happy that we have baseball
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back because I missed getting to choose from 15 different games
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each day looking for sharp moves.
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Just the grind of betting baseball every night, I missed
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it. So I'm very happy that we have
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baseball back in our lives as the All Star break is over and
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we're back to our daily grind and daily routine of betting
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baseball. With that being said, I got a
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loaded slate for you today, guys.
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I have a six pack of MLB sweats today, including a bunch of
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sharp line moves. Couple dogs here, actually would
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have 122 dogs. One's more of kind of a pick and
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play. And then also we're going to
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fade our favorite starting pitcher to fade.
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If you know what I'm talking about, you know who I'm talking
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about. Aside from a big baseball slate,
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we also have some partying in the arena.
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That's right, UFC is back. If you remember last week I had
1:36
a bit of a bad beat. Even though we didn't lose, we
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had a no contest. We got our money back.
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It was a refunded bet. But you remember our guy Al
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Hassan went out to a big start and then there were some
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inadvertent blows to the back of the head and it was called a no
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contest. So we're looking at a kind of a
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knockout win within the 1st 20 seconds instead.
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Again, it could have been a loser, it could have been a
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disqualification and a loss. But either way, I'm looking to
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get back into the Octagon and sweat some some biting, some
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UFC. And I have a very sharp steam
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move that I'm going to share with you, including a variable
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here that I think gives us a great edge for the specific
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bout. So with that being said, right
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back at it, guys, let's get right back on the horse, get
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right back to Major League Baseball and get back to doing
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what we love to do. So without further ado, let's
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get right into MLB. As I mentioned, a six pack.
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Tell you what, guys, there's a lot of games that were catching
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my eye today, and I probably whittled it down.
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I have 6, which is kind of a lot.
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I try not to go more than five, but I said, hey, there's value
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across the board. Let's try to take advantage and
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maximize our edge. So first one on the board here.
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6:40 PM Eastern Time, Phillies visiting the Pirates, and I'm
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going to go with the Phills. Baby, give me Philly.
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I got Philly a little bit earlier today around -165.
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Now they're creeping up, which is a good thing.
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Closer to -170 not a great thing if you haven't bet it yet.
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But anyway, going to this matchup, the Phillies are 62 and
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34. They did just drop two or three
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against the Athletics. I couldn't believe this.
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They lost their last game before the unofficial end of the first
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half before the Ulster break. They lost 18 to 3.
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They're a -, 245 home favorite and the Athletics got them.
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However, on the flip side, the Pirates 48 and 48, they're at
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500 just swept The White Sox won that series finale before the
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break 9:00 to 4:00 as a -, 165 road favorite.
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So for tonight's series opener, the Phillies are going to go
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with ready Aaron Nola, who's 11 and four with a 3.38 ERA.
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Meanwhile, the Pirates are going to rebuttal with lefty Martine
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Perez, who's one and five with a 5.15 ERA.
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What have we seen across the market here?
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Well, if you're like me and I, you probably are.
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If you're listening to this pod, you enjoy data-driven, sharp
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contrary and bedding. You probably noticed this big
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line move over the last 24 hours or so because the Phillies only
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open this one at around a -, 135 road favorite.
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Now they're all the way up to -165 even -170 So that is a
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massive, massive 3035 cent steam move in favor of Philly.
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Yes, if you're laying it now, you're not getting the best of
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it, but you're also on the sharp side with no buyback.
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So that is why I am laying this number with the Phills.
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Now the Phillies are getting 85% of bets but 94% of dollars, so
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that's a pretty good low bets, higher dollars bet split
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basically tells us that the public's on the Phills, but also
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smart money is with that big steam move.
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And we have a lot of system matches on Philly.
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One would be our Rd. favorites getting $0.10 of steam or more
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system match, that's 55 and 33 this year, 62% with a 5% ROI.
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Philly's by the way, the best team or actually second best
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team as a favorite. When they're favored, they tend
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to come through for you 54 and 26 as a favorite 68% I'm going
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to bank on the Phillies bats. I'm banking on nola obviously,
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hopefully pitch a good game but hopefully the bats of Philly get
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to Perez today because the Phills are hitting 259 with 118
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homers and 477 runs scored. Pittsburgh's hitting 231 with 99
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homers and 402 runs scored. Phillies, meanwhile, have some
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additional betting value as a non division favorite with a
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lack of familiarity benefiting the better team and correlative
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betting value favorite in a low total game.
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Told him this one is 8. Although some shops maybe we're
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taking up toward 8 1/2 at one point came back down to 8.
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Philly, by the way, 15 and four in Nola's 19 starts this year.
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Pittsburgh is just four and 10 and Perez's 14 starts.
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And the Phills in particular again, always look it up.
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How's the team do if they're facing lefty?
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The Phills offense, they're hitting 262 against lefties this
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year. That's the 7th best.
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And Major League Baseball, Phillies, by the way, 25 and 18
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on the road, Pirates 22 and 24 at home.
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So add it all up here, guys. You know, you had me at hello,
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the great Jerry Maguire quote. You had me at this steam.
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Let's go fills hopefully to start our day with the winner.
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I'm on Philadelphia at -165 keep on cruising. 6:45 PM Eastern
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Time. Cincinnati and the Washington
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Nationals now going to this one. The Reds are 47 and 50 before
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the break. They took two out of three from
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Miami. Meanwhile, Washington 44 and 53
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and before the break they also took two out of three against
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Milwaukee. So going to this one, let's look
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at first the pitching match up we have on the bump for the
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Reds. Frankie Montas four and seven,
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4.38 ERA and the guy we want to fade, Patrick Corbin, happy fade
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Corbin Day. Corbin on the year one and nine
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5.57 ERA. What have we seen across the
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market here? Well, some good solid movement,
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sneaky movement and still a short number in favor of
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Cincinnati. The Reds open this game as low
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as a -, 110 -, 115 road favorite.
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Now we're seeing the Reds up to -125 S.
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It tells us we got some good steam hitting Cincinnati.
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Now the Reds are getting 73% of bets, but 80% of dollars.
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So kind of a pro and Joel bet split here in their favor.
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And then a lot of system matches on Cincinnati Short Rd.
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favorites -130 or less our sweet spot system that's 145 and one
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1955% this year with a 3% ROI. Both teams are below 500.
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Take the favorite that's 60% this year fading.
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Corbin is 14 and five on the year, 74% with a 15% ROI.
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All these systems would be matching with since he since he
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would also be a non division favorite, which we like with the
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lack of familiarity benefiting the team expected to win.
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And then if you dig a little bit deeper, since he's got the
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better offense, 108 homers, 432 runs scored versus the Nats, 80
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homers, 402 runs scored. Also, Cincinnati is 2 and one
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head to So I want to, I want to continue
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to bet a bet against Corbin here in two July starts before the
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break, Corbin had a 6.3 O ERA. So once again, short favorite
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Cincy on the road. They've gotten some steam to
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tick up here in terms of their price.
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I want to fade Corbin. I want to go with the steam.
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Give me the red legs. Shop around.
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I got the Reds at -125 keep on cruising.
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Next one up for you, Let's go to the great state of Ohio.
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Let's go to Cleveland. It's not Jacobs Field anymore,
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it's Progressive Field, I believe.
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But anyway, Padres visiting the Cleveland Guardians.
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There's a 7:10 PM Eastern Time. First pitch.
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Little background here. Padres 50 and 49, dropped two or
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three against the Braves before the break.
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Lost that finale six to three as a + 140 home dog.
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Meanwhile, the Guardians 58 and 37 had a great first half but
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kind of tailed off a little bit. I think they lost four of their
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last five. Maybe they needed that All Star
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break to get a bit of a breather here.
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They did lose before the break, two or three against the Rays
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lost 2 nothing in the last game before the break as a + 110 Rd.
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dog. So for the interleague series
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opener tonight, pods are going with ready Matt Waldron, who's
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five and eight with a 3.71 ERA. Guardians are going to go with
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Tanner BB fellow ready seven and four 3.77 ERA.
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What are we seen across the market here?
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Well, another big steam move in favor of Cleveland.
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Cleveland open this game kind of a modest -125 home favorite.
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Now Cleveland's up to round -155 -, 160.
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So about a 2530 cent, even $0.35 steam move in favor of the
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Guardians tells me a lot of money came in here on Cleveland.
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I want to be with that sharp money.
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Guardians are getting 77% of bets and 82% of dollars.
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So nice but low bets, higher dollars.
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Pro and Joe Bet split in addition to that big steam move,
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also Cleveland value as an interleague favorite.
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Lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the better team.
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Cleveland would also have value as a favorite with $0.10 or more
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steam playing a team who missed the playoffs the previous year.
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161 and one O 461% this season and a favorite with a winning
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record off a loss. 194 and one 3060% as well.
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Guardians, by the way, just mentioned how the Phillies are
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great when they're favored. Well, the Guardians are the best
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chalk team in baseball this year when they're expected to win.
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They're 42 and 1870% Cleveland as well as that interleague
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favorite value also has some correlative betting value as a
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favorite low total told this one is just 7 1/2.
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Some books are 887 and a half. It's kind of going back and
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forth, but lack of the fewer amount of expected runs scored
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more likely to come from quote UN quote that better team.
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And also the Guardians, they've been good at home, really good
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at home. They're the best home team in
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baseball, by the way. They're 30 and 11 at home.
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So you add it all up, big steam, interleague, favorite system
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match, a lot of systems lighting up on the Guardians.
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I'm going to go Cleveland tonight.
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Guys, shop around. I got, I was almost going to
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call him the Tribe. Not anymore.
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Let's go Guardians. I got the guardians at -155 keep
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on cruising. Now we got some late games here.
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If you're like me on the East Coast, put on a pot of coffee.
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We're staying up late on a Friday night.
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Let's go out to Oakland where the Angels are visiting the
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Oakland A's. Now going into this one, we have
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the LA Angels 51 or sorry, 41 and 55 on the year before the
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break. However, they did take three out
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of four against Seattle. You know, all the A's, 37 and
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61. And they did take two or three
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against Philly. Again, that was surprising that
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they went to Philly and took two out of three.
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But anyway, pitching match up here for tonight.
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Now, this one is interesting because we don't officially know
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who the Angel starter is. I saw reports it might be
11:27
Griffin Canning, but that's unconfirmed.
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But we know for sure Oakland starter is going to be JP Sears,
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the lefty who's six and seven with a 4.56 ERA.
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Now, the first thing I noticed about this game and why I kind
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of selected and had had my eyes focused on this game is that
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even though it's TBD undecided, we don't know officially who the
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Angels pitcher is. This line's moving toward
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Oakland. So that tells me either wise
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guys know who it is and they want to bet against him, or
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they're saying we don't care who the Angels put out there.
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We like this spot for Oakland here tonight.
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So if you look at the line movement, even though again, we
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don't know who the pitcher is for the Angels, this open around
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Oakland, a very short -110 home favorite.
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Now Oakland is up to -115 -, 120, so it may only be 5 or
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$0.10, but again, the fact that we don't have the pitcher
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officially yet wise guys are taking a position tells me
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they're like Oakland. So this is an action play.
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You probably hear me say it quite a bit during the baseball
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season, action versus listed pitcher. 99 times out of 100,
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you want to go listed pitcher because if a guy gets scratched,
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you want to protect yourself. You can always just re bet the
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game afterwards. Here's a situation where I'm
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going to go action. That means regardless of who the
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starting pitcher is, we're still going to take Oakland.
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So just keep that in mind. But looking at JP Sears a little
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bit, I like the fact that he's pitched really well in July.
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In the month of July, he made two starts, 0.84 ERA.
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Back on July 4th, he actually opposed the Angels and went five
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innings, two hits, no runs. It was a 5 nothing win.
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And I probably should have led with this, but a great bet split
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toward Oakland. Oakland is only getting 51% of
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bets. So the public's down the middle.
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Angels, Oakland, both losing teams, but Angels have a
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slightly better record and they're getting a little plus
13:09
money. Why not take the Angels, right?
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However, only 51% of bets on Oakland, but Oakland's getting
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80% of dollars. That's a 5050 line move.
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Again, line shouldn't move at all in a vacuum based on even
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tickets. But we know that the bigger,
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sharper waiters are on Oakland because of the line move and
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because that 80% of money on Oakland.
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So that's a + 30% smart money discrepancy.
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So that really is what jumped out to me.
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Don't know for sure who the pitcher is for the Angels, but
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line keeps creeping up to Oakland.
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We got some good 5050 line move as well as good splits on
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Oakland. I'm going to bank on JP Sears
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and the A's hopefully to get it done again.
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Took two out of three against Philly.
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Let's hope that they carry that momentum to tonight.
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So I'm going to go Oakland. Shop around.
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I got the A's at -115 keep on cruising.
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Let's finish our night off with some dogs.
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Let's get some dogs to bark for us.
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Houston at the Seattle Mariners is a 10:10 PM Eastern Time.
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First pitch coming in Houston is 50 and 46.
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Remember, they were below 500 much of the year.
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So they really turned it on in like June turning into July.
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I should probably look up those odds to win the the, the AL West
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because it's going to be probably a close race anyway.
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Seattle, 52 and 46. Seattle, as you mentioned, lost
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three of four to the Angels to end the break.
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Astros lost two or three against Texas.
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But going into this one pitching matchup, we have Hunter Brown
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for Houston, the righty seven and six, 4.39 ERA.
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He was terrible early in the season.
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He's been pitching much better as of late.
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More on him in a second. He'll be opposed by fellow ready
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Luis Castillo, who's 8:00 and 9:00 with a 3.53 ERA.
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So what have we seen across the market here?
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Well, the public is going Seattle.
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They're at home again. Castillo's been a pretty good
14:52
pitcher throughout his whole career.
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And there's a short number here on Seattle.
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Seattle open only -120 at home. However, despite nearly 60% of
15:00
bets on Seattle, this number has fallen.
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Seattle's gone from -120 down to like -115 -, 110.
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So if nearly 2/3 of bets are on Seattle, shouldn't they be up to
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-125 -, 130 instead? It's going the other way.
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Tells me we got smart money on Houston, so I'm going to go
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Houston here, guys. They open plus 1/10.
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You can shop around, maybe find a - 1 O2.
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I see a - 1 O five out there. I got a - 1 O2.
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But again, shop around. Try to get the best number.
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You actually might get a + 100. So try to get as close to even
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money as you can. But a great bet split only 43%
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of bets, but 69% of dollars on Houston.
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So they have a reverse line move.
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They're also divisional dog. So that built in familiarity
15:43
levels the playing field benefits the team getting plus
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money. And Hunter Brown back in late
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May did oppose Seattle and he pitched well 6 innings pitch
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only gave up one run and he had a 1.16 ERA in June.
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He had a really good June. And Houston is 6 and one in
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Browns last seven starts. And I'm going to bank on the
16:01
offense of Houston. Seattle is kind of surprising
16:04
because they their offensive numbers are really bad, yet
16:06
they're still above 500, but they're only hitting 219 on the
16:10
year and they've only scored 379 runs.
16:13
You look at the Houston Astros, they're rating 262 with 457 runs
16:18
scored. And usually Houston puts a lot
16:20
of guys in the All Star game. I want to say maybe Jordan
16:22
Alvarez was the only one, but I think it's a good break for guys
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like Altuve, Bregman, you know some of their big boppers to
16:29
have that break and get re energized here for tonight.
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But the moral or the the story of this game guys is public
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Seattle yet lines dropping toward Houston.
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So I'm going to go Houston here again.
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Try to get as close to plus money as you can.
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I got Houston at minus one O 2. Then to finish off the night,
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I'm going to sweat my Boston Red Sox.
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That's right, let's go Sox. I actually told my wife that I
16:50
was going to boycott the Red Sox this year because I hate John
16:52
Henry and the guy's a multi multi multi billionaire and yet
16:57
won't spend any money on the roster.
16:58
But then I told her the other day, I'm like, man, the Sox.
17:01
I I like what they're doing. They're scrappy this year,
17:03
they're young. Let's get tickets and go to a
17:05
game. So I may be ending my boycott.
17:07
I still hate you, John Henry. Imagine buying the Red Sox for
17:10
like, I think he bought them for like, was it 300 million or 600
17:14
million? Now they're worth like 4
17:15
billion. Anyway, if I was an owner, I'd
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be a great owner. I'd spend a lot of money and put
17:20
the best winner I had out there. Anyway, Red Sox at the Dodgers,
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rematch of the 2018 World Series.
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We have the Red Sox coming into this 153 and 42.
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The Sox took two or three against the Royals and the first
17:35
half. Dodgers.
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Meanwhile, 56 and 41, they lost two or three against Detroit and
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actually struggle a little bit to end that first half ended up
17:44
losing. Let's see, 123456 of their last
17:47
seven. So maybe it's a good time to bet
17:49
against the Dodgers. Anyway, going to this one, we
17:52
have Boston going with Nick Pavetta on the year.
17:55
Pavetta four and six, 4.18 ERA. He'll be opposed by Gavin Stone,
17:59
nine and three, 3.26 ERA. What are we seeing across the
18:03
market here? Well, similar to that Houston
18:05
Seattle game, we have the line going in favor of the road dog,
18:08
even though the home favorite is getting the majority of bets.
18:11
So the Dodgers are getting 74% of bets, yet the open -135
18:17
they're down to -120 so why is line falling away from the
18:20
Dodgers if they're the majority? Bet play tonight tells me we got
18:23
a reverse line move on Boston who opened getting around plus
18:26
120. Now they're down to plus 110.
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I'm taking that plus 110. Give me Boston here.
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Only 26% of bats, but nearly 40% of dollars.
18:36
Good sharp reverse line move. Also a dog high total total this
18:39
games. 8 1/2. And then also, if you dig a
18:42
little bit deeper into the pitchers, I want to bank on
18:45
Pavetta over Stone. Now, Stone's numbers are better
18:47
on the year mentioned nine and three, 3.26 ERA.
18:51
But he's a young pitcher and maybe he's starting to hit a
18:53
wall because in July 2 starts before the break, he had a 9.39
18:57
ERA. He gave up eight runs and 7.2.
19:00
And he's pitched. He's been worse at home than on
19:02
the road. On the road, 2.83 ERA, at home,
19:05
3.67. Meanwhile, Nick Pavetta, who's
19:07
on some good rest 2.63 ERA into July starts.
19:11
He's also been better on the road than at home.
19:13
On the road, Pavetta 2.97 ERA at home 5.5 O Also the Red Sox 29
19:20
and 17 on the road. And if you didn't know this,
19:23
they are the second best dog team in baseball.
19:25
When the Red Sox are a dog, they're 24 and 21, and if you
19:29
were, if you have a winning record as a dog in a money line
19:31
sport, you're really good. They're only winning 53.3% of
19:35
the time, but because of those plus money payouts, that's
19:37
nearly a 18% return on investment.
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So I'm staying up late. I'm sweating the Sox.
19:44
Let's go Boston. I got Boston at plus 110, so Red
19:47
Sox, Houston, Oakland, Cleveland, Cincinnati and
19:51
Philadelphia. 6 pack. Can we get four of those or
19:55
more? That would be great.
19:56
Let's try to get 4 and grind out a winning night.
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Now to finish up the pod, a little bit of UFC biting in the
20:02
arena. We have a big UFC card for
20:06
tomorrow. It is the Fight Night Lemos VS
20:09
John Deroba and I found a bout that caught my eye for a couple
20:13
different reasons. So the one that caught my eye is
20:16
Dion or Dionne. Is it Dionne Barbosa against?
20:21
I almost remember Leandro Barbosa played for the Celtics
20:23
for a hot minute. And the sons.
20:25
But anyway, she is fighting Miranda Maverick.
20:28
This is the women's flyweight. It's in the prelims.
20:31
So first thing that caught my eye is a good sharp line move
20:34
toward Miranda Maverick. I'm going with the Maverick
20:37
here. Do it for John McCain.
20:39
But Maverick open at -175 She's up to -215 Some shops are even
20:45
higher, like minus closer to -230.
20:47
But again, like any sport, especially UFC, though, you can
20:50
have money lines that are vastly different from one book to
20:52
another. So I was able to get Maverick at
20:54
-215. Now, I'll tell you right now, I
20:59
did not get this morning that great e-mail that I look forward
21:02
to every Friday from my guy John Ewing at Bet MGM.
21:05
It sounds like Bet MGM had some kind of technical difficulty.
21:08
I couldn't log into my app. My buddy John Ewing said that
21:11
his data is down. Something's going on with Bet
21:13
MGM. Hope they can solve that.
21:15
And it's, you know, not a big issue.
21:16
So we don't have the betting percentages.
21:18
So I, I wish Maverick was getting, you know, 5040% of
21:22
bets, 80% of money. We don't have that Bet MGM data
21:25
is having an issue right now. So this is an old school
21:28
handicap for me. So number one, we got the line
21:30
move toward maverick -175 to -215.
21:34
Secondly, we have a youth advantage.
21:36
Maverick is 27 years old. Her opponent is 32 years old
21:40
now. She doesn't have the height
21:41
advantage. She's 52.
21:43
Barbosa is 55, and the reach advantage is the same.
21:46
They're both around 66 inches. But we have the line move and we
21:49
have a youth advantage toward Maverick.
21:51
So let's dig a little bit deeper.
21:53
Significant strikes per minute. This is important because when
21:56
you look at a lot of women's bouts, I'm not trying to be
22:01
sexist or anything, but a lot of them go to decision.
22:04
You don't have as much, I guess, firepower for knockouts or
22:07
submissions. So you, a lot of them go the
22:09
distance and that's important because if it goes to the
22:11
judges, we want to have a better scorecard of more offense.
22:15
Maverick dishes out 3.8 significant strikes per minute
22:18
versus only 2.2 for Barbosa. So hopefully that's a benefit.
22:22
And then allowing significant strikes per minute, how much
22:24
punishment do you take? Not a huge difference, but
22:27
Maverick has been better, only giving up 2.6 versus nearly
22:30
three for Barbosa. I was reading about both these
22:35
fighters a little bit. One thing I'm going to bank on
22:37
with Maverick is her wrestling. She's really good on the mat.
22:40
She has a takedown percentage of 46% versus only 25% for Barbosa.
22:46
And this is kind of a vet versus a prospect bout.
22:49
The veteran here is actually the younger, the younger poiter,
22:52
which is Maverick. She's only 27, her opponent's
22:55
32, but Maverick is 6 and three in the UFC.
22:59
She's four and one her last five bouts and she's faced a lot of
23:03
elite competition. Barbosa's five year years older,
23:06
but she's only making her second UFC appearance.
23:09
So you would think the older person would be the veteran.
23:11
That's not the case here. It's Maverick who has more
23:13
experience. And then here's really the
23:16
cherry on top, why I really like Maverick in the spot.
23:19
I like Maverick quite a bit because this is a tough spot for
23:22
Barbosa and a huge benefit toward Maverick, hopefully
23:26
because Barbosa is on short notice.
23:29
Maverick actually was expected, was scheduled to face Cortez and
23:33
Cortez got bumped up to face Rose Nam and Judas last week.
23:37
So Cortez left the bout who Maverick was scheduled to fight
23:41
and they needed someone to fill in and they picked Dion Barbosa
23:44
to fill in. So that's a big, you know,
23:47
difficulty for Barbosa. Anytime you're a late addition,
23:50
it's just difficult because you take the fight, you want the
23:52
opportunity, you want to get paid.
23:55
You know, you're never going to say no to that if you're the one
23:57
coming in late, but it's really at a detriment because you
24:01
hadn't been game planning against that opponent.
24:03
You're kind of behind the 8 ball.
24:05
It's almost like the NFL like playing on a short week.
24:08
So I want to bet against Barbosa on a late short notice entry.
24:13
And I want to back Maverick, who's had a full training camp
24:15
in his, you know, been scheduled and ready to fight this bout,
24:18
you know, for quite a while here.
24:20
So even though we don't have these bet splits because Bet
24:22
MGM, let's say a prayer for Bet MGM, something's going on with
24:25
them. We have a great line move.
24:27
We have a youth advantage, more offense, better wrestling, more
24:32
experience, as well as a fade of Barbosa on short notice.
24:35
So you add it all up here, guys. Let's do it for John McCain.
24:38
RIP. Let's go Maverick on the money
24:41
line to win this bite at -215 That about does it for episode
24:47
79 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by
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Obviously, they're fantastic for WNBA, which WNBAI believe is off
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for a bit here for the Olympics or is there All Star break?
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I know they don't have a game here in quite a bit, but they do
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have golf. So I did see Tony Feenau had not
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a great day today, but we use the podcast I believe.
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What was it on Wednesday to talk about how to use rhythm to your
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advantage betting golf. So if you're a golf better take
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advantage of rhythm. WNBA is coming back.
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And I also noticed I meant to tell you guys this.
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I was popping open my rhythm app and I noticed that NFL and
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Get ready for football season to return.
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And then of course, Juice Reel is fantastic for syncing up your
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So go sign up for Juice Reel right now as well.
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Of course, if you enjoy these breakdowns, you missed maybe the
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But more importantly, you enjoy betting and basically from a
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data-driven perspective where we are acting like Wall Street
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traders looking at numbers, leaving our opinions at the
27:01
door, betting based on where the smart money's going.
27:04
If this style of betting appeals to you, you're not going to
27:06
become a millionaire overnight. But it's a grinder mentality
27:09
long term, grinding out a profit.
27:12
Then guess what? If you want to learn more about
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data-driven betting or you just think I'm a good guy, you want
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to make my day and make me happy, please go buy my book.
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Support the team. Go to Amazon.com and type in the
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Pick up a copy for you or for a friend.
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It's got everything I've learned in the industry, how lines are
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27:35
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So pick up a copy, give it to that buddy of yours that parlays
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everything and double S down and triples down in chases and does
27:46
all the things that we say not to do in the bankroll management
27:48
chapter. Lastly, guys, some parting words
27:51
as always, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City,
27:55
Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods
27:58
or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut, at the Encore in
28:01
Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield.
28:04
In my neck of the woods in Massachusetts or out in the
28:06
desert where the true grinders get down, where Billy Walters
28:09
sends his number runners, where the lowest juice possible is
28:11
found. The South Point or Sweat and
28:13
Sharp Contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool at
28:15
Circa, wherever it may be. You're going to walk up to me
28:18
and hopefully show me some MLB winning tickets from tonight.
28:21
Hopefully show me a Miranda Maverick money line ticket for
28:24
tomorrow. Guess what?
28:25
First one's on me, next one's on you.
28:27
We're going to post about the book and sweat sharp contrarian
28:29
plays all night long. So that about does it everybody
28:33
hope you have a fantastic Friday and an even better weekend.
28:36
Reminder, no pods on the weekend.
28:38
So we back at it on Monday, but you can check my Twitter account
28:41
at Josh under score Insights. Give me a follow because I will
28:44
be writing sharp reports for visen.com for both Saturday and
28:48
Sunday. So you'll get, you'll get 6
28:50
plays this weekend in baseball, three Saturday, three Sunday.
28:53
So you can catch me on Twitter. Anyway, guys, have a great
28:56
weekend. Good luck.
28:57
And my parting words, as always, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet
29:00
against the public, place yourself on the side of the
29:02
house. Always be with the smart money,
29:04
never against it. Will smart money win every time?
29:07
Of course not. If you haven't realized yet,
29:09
sports betting is kind of hard, which makes you, I don't know,
29:12
give you more confidence when you're struggling and gives you
29:14
a good perspective when you're winning.
29:16
But here's the thing, we can end up on top if we stay true to the
29:20
model. We make bets with our head and
29:22
not our heart against the public, with the house, with the
29:24
pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that COV.
29:27
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
29:30
So enjoy the sweats. Everyone, have a great Friday.
29:33
I'll see you back on Monday for episode 80 of the All Systems Go
29:37
Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
29:40
Good luck everybody, have a great weekend.