Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 6

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The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 6 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast, presented by Brett three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network,
0:16
Speaker 1: live from our Tommy John Home studios.
0:20
Speaker 2: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network.
0:22
Speaker 1: This is our Sunday Night episode in which we review
0:26
Speaker 1: the faves five picks we put into the contest, dissect
0:30
Speaker 1: why we left some games out, and we'll preview the
0:33
Speaker 1: early lines we already like for week seven. I'm joined
0:39
Speaker 1: as always by my cos my companion, my Campadre, my
0:43
Speaker 1: BFF Professional Better.
0:44
Speaker 2: Simon hunter head O Soomon.
0:48
Speaker 1: Today when Chalk was having its way in every single way,
0:56
Speaker 1: and that was the baseline of a comment that you
1:02
Speaker 1: made to me this morning that helped us keep some
1:06
Speaker 1: games in and allowed us to get to a two
1:11
Speaker 1: and two day.
1:14
Speaker 2: We are.
1:17
Speaker 1: Five hundred right now, two and two. Like I said,
1:20
Speaker 1: we have the Jets plus two and a half remaining.
1:23
Speaker 1: The games we won we won handily. The games we
1:29
Speaker 1: lost we were kind of in but not really. Mostly,
1:35
Speaker 1: I thought this conversation we had before our final picks
1:37
Speaker 1: this morning that led us all the way around the
1:40
Speaker 1: league and back again was really fun. The whole day
1:45
Speaker 1: was interesting. We are going to review what we missed.
1:49
Speaker 1: We're gonna break it all down. If you believe you
1:52
Speaker 1: could beat our picks this season, be our guest and
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2:53
Speaker 2: All right, So a.
2:55
Speaker 1: Couple things trends we were paying attention to. The public
3:00
Speaker 1: had been having a terrible year, and then today the
3:06
Speaker 1: public was on Houston, the public one. The public was
3:10
Speaker 1: on Detroit the public one. The public was on who
3:14
Speaker 1: am I missing? Tampa Bay? The public one. That's number one.
3:19
Speaker 2: Number two.
3:20
Speaker 1: We've been tracking the NFL underdogs of six plus points
3:25
Speaker 1: or more. They had been sixteen to two and one
3:28
Speaker 1: against the spread this season. After today, that is no
3:34
Speaker 1: longer the case. The Panthers did not cover as six
3:38
Speaker 1: plus point favorites. The Commanders pushed as six plus point underdogs.
3:45
Speaker 1: I mean the Panthers were doused too. The Browns covered.
3:48
Speaker 1: So not a great day if you were a six
3:51
Speaker 1: plus point dog. It's in line with the chalkiness of
3:54
Speaker 1: the day. We're gonna run through these games. First one up,
3:59
Speaker 1: Arizona Green Bay. We had Green Bay five and a half.
4:02
Speaker 2: Loved it all week. I really loved it all week.
4:07
Speaker 1: I believe you came around in my thinking I might
4:09
Speaker 1: have bullieted you into it and it went exactly as
4:11
Speaker 1: we expected Simon Big exactly.
4:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, Kyler didn't show up, and that was really our
4:20
Speaker 3: preference about the whole reason for Ben. It was like,
4:22
Speaker 3: we haven't seen him put back to back really competitive
4:25
Speaker 3: road starts in his career that are against really competitive,
4:29
Speaker 3: good teams. And you know, that was a huge win
4:31
Speaker 3: they pulled off against forty nine ers, But me and
4:34
Speaker 3: you talked about it. It was a little I don't
4:37
Speaker 3: know if they really won that game so much as
4:39
Speaker 3: the forty nine ers might have lost that game. Yes,
4:41
Speaker 3: And you know, we were five minutes into this Green
4:45
Speaker 3: Bay game and Kyler coun't get anything going. They punted
4:49
Speaker 3: back to Green Bay and they're already up seven to nothing.
4:52
Speaker 3: They come right down score another fourteen, and then off
4:55
Speaker 3: from there. It was just a bad game all together
4:57
Speaker 3: from the Cardinals team. I think Arvan Harris went out
5:01
Speaker 3: in the first quarter after a hit. Yeah, okay, so yeah,
5:06
Speaker 3: I didn't know that was injury. So yeah, it just
5:08
Speaker 3: it just battle around for them. On the flip side,
5:10
Speaker 3: you know, Jordan Love it took him a little bit
5:13
Speaker 3: to get going, but he looked really good in that game.
5:15
Speaker 3: Like a couple of big time throws really nice reads
5:19
Speaker 3: using his idds and move the safety's around to get
5:21
Speaker 3: his receivers open deep and like you know, once the
5:24
Speaker 3: floor gets a team on their heels, you know, he
5:26
Speaker 3: just schemes it up so well. So yeah, all the around,
5:30
Speaker 3: that was a fun game. Like we talk all the time,
5:32
Speaker 3: it's fun sometimes to bet on the chalk. That was fun.
5:36
Speaker 3: Our fear was, you know, you bet four and a half.
5:39
Speaker 3: I bet a lot of money at five. It got
5:42
Speaker 3: up to five and a half in our contest and
5:43
Speaker 3: it was just like, okay, is this gonna come down
5:45
Speaker 3: and matter this half a point? Clearly we overreacted to
5:49
Speaker 3: that half point. It did not matter at all. Really
5:51
Speaker 3: happy we didn't take it out or even think about
5:53
Speaker 3: taking out. It's just a week where unfortunately we didn't
5:57
Speaker 3: take all favorites, but we talked about how we got
6:00
Speaker 3: force in some of these favorites and luckily we did
6:02
Speaker 3: with this Green Bay team.
6:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, the public was eight three and one today. This
6:08
Speaker 1: was the last one in. To be honest, and we
6:13
Speaker 1: we love this game because we believed Jordan Love and
6:16
Speaker 1: the Packers were undervalued after losing to the Vikings and
6:19
Speaker 1: then playing badly against the rams on the road. We thought,
6:22
Speaker 1: now three weeks return from his injury, playing at home
6:25
Speaker 1: against a soft defense, he would just be the better
6:29
Speaker 1: quarterback leading the better team.
6:31
Speaker 2: And he was right.
6:32
Speaker 1: Like this offense gained four hundred and thirty seven yards,
6:36
Speaker 1: It ran seventy plays, it had more than six yards
6:40
Speaker 1: per play. Jordan Love threw for nearly two to sixty
6:43
Speaker 1: and had four touchdowns. And the Cardinals did what we
6:46
Speaker 1: thought they would do. They just made a lot of mistakes,
6:50
Speaker 1: three fumbles lost. We should explain we had a conversation
6:56
Speaker 1: this morning and we nearly pulled the Packers out. It's
7:02
Speaker 1: fair to say the Packers were our last team in
7:06
Speaker 1: Explain from your point of view why we nearly pulled
7:11
Speaker 1: the Packers out, and also tell people we almost put
7:15
Speaker 1: it in.
7:17
Speaker 3: It was bad weather, honestly, I mean I liked the
7:19
Speaker 3: under there and it was forty seven and a half
7:22
Speaker 3: got really lucky, landed right on forty seven. They only
7:25
Speaker 3: scored three points in the fourth quarter, and that's just classic.
7:29
Speaker 3: Bet the number, bet the spot, and yeah, that was
7:32
Speaker 3: that was the main concern was the weather. Honestly, in
7:34
Speaker 3: my opinion, it was just we know how random weather
7:37
Speaker 3: can make these football games, and we saw with Arizona,
7:39
Speaker 3: right with all those stupid fumbles. That's the scary part
7:42
Speaker 3: with bad weather. It's just you don't know which team's
7:43
Speaker 3: gonna react better to it. Shocking to no one. The
7:47
Speaker 3: indoor team did not react well to it, right, and
7:49
Speaker 3: clearly green Bay they're used to playing in forty degrees
7:52
Speaker 3: shitty weather. So the team we thought about putting with
7:56
Speaker 3: the Raiders, and you know it was honestly though, between
8:00
Speaker 3: them and the Chargers, and you know you were your
8:03
Speaker 3: love for the Raiders was just a good sales by
8:06
Speaker 3: Sean Kerner, totally just he got you with a good
8:09
Speaker 3: sales pitch. You fell in love with it, and I
8:11
Speaker 3: was just like, I can't do it. Even though it
8:14
Speaker 3: was a great number, is Aidan O'Connell. I just couldn't
8:16
Speaker 3: get there with the kid. And I was just like,
8:18
Speaker 3: it's still it's something's throwing off because they're playing against
8:20
Speaker 3: the Pittsburgh defense. So, like you just said, thank god
8:23
Speaker 3: we didn't do because it would be a brutal sin
8:25
Speaker 3: here on one in three, knowing we switched out a
8:27
Speaker 3: Green Bay team to end up not even being a sweat.
8:29
Speaker 1: We're going to talk about the Chargers. After we get
8:32
Speaker 1: through our games Houston and New England. If the Packers
8:36
Speaker 1: went exactly as we expected, this one didn't go anywhere
8:41
Speaker 1: near the way we expected. New England was kind of
8:45
Speaker 1: never in this game, except they were tantalizingly close to
8:54
Speaker 1: putting themselves in the game. And I want to give
8:58
Speaker 1: you some some scenarios just from the second half, the
9:03
Speaker 1: very start of the second half, they're down fourteen to
9:07
Speaker 1: seven to start the second half, they get the ball. Actually,
9:12
Speaker 1: let me take it back further. Early in the game,
9:17
Speaker 1: they had been stopping the Texans in the red zone
9:21
Speaker 1: twice on third down, and both times they got called
9:25
Speaker 1: for pass interference penalties, and the Texans score on the
9:29
Speaker 1: very next play. Yep, So all of a sudden, they're
9:31
Speaker 1: up fourteen to nothing. They got lucky with a Kayimi
9:33
Speaker 1: Fairbairn missed field goal.
9:36
Speaker 2: So now they just.
9:37
Speaker 3: Said that felt like to me that was the game.
9:39
Speaker 3: There's two third down calls like both times too, the
9:44
Speaker 3: defense outplayed the offense and got off the field. Yeah,
9:46
Speaker 3: but those calls flipped it. Like you just said, it
9:48
Speaker 3: gave them fourteen points, but it should have been six.
9:51
Speaker 3: And like you said, once you're up fourteen on Drake May,
9:55
Speaker 3: who now has to push the ball downfield. You're dead,
9:58
Speaker 3: like you said, that's if we would have saw the
10:01
Speaker 3: game going that way in any way, we wouldn't have
10:03
Speaker 3: taken it. I put it on me because I my
10:06
Speaker 3: whole problem with that game was it was his first
10:07
Speaker 3: star Drake Mate chat I said that to you, It's like,
10:10
Speaker 3: we are backing this kid in his first start, and
10:12
Speaker 3: we've seen how much better these other rookies have played
10:15
Speaker 3: after their first start. It's just that first start is
10:18
Speaker 3: such a brutal game. Even when we talk a little
10:20
Speaker 3: bit about the Saints, and I told you I couldn't
10:22
Speaker 3: do it. Just car he had money on Tampa. I
10:23
Speaker 3: didn't want to betting again on a rookie making his
10:25
Speaker 3: first start. Looked like the same with Drake May. He
10:27
Speaker 3: had a couple of really good plays, but overall he's
10:30
Speaker 3: on a really bad team. It doesn't matter if he's
10:32
Speaker 3: making a couple of plays here and there. It's like
10:34
Speaker 3: they need the bounces to go their way and the
10:36
Speaker 3: referees calls to go their way, and we didn't get
10:39
Speaker 3: any of that. And then the nail on the coffin
10:41
Speaker 3: was Joe Mixon, like we talked, that's what we were
10:44
Speaker 3: hoping for last week and to be back with the Bills.
10:47
Speaker 3: You saw today, they're just a totally different team when
10:50
Speaker 3: he's on the field. He's that good for them, and
10:53
Speaker 3: he's that big of a difference maker in their run
10:55
Speaker 3: blocking scheme where he just knows how to be patient,
10:58
Speaker 3: pick his holes, and when he hits it, he hits
10:59
Speaker 3: it so hard. It's just he's just so much better
11:02
Speaker 3: than the other guys they've been running back there, Like
11:04
Speaker 3: you immediately saw a difference once he was in the field.
11:06
Speaker 3: So that's definitely as much as I want to be, like,
11:09
Speaker 3: this was your whatever scoot for left pick. You love them,
11:13
Speaker 3: I love them too. We talked last Sunday. I bet
11:15
Speaker 3: Hi when they were plus seven. I thought it was
11:17
Speaker 3: a good number, bad read, just a bad read overall,
11:21
Speaker 3: being Drake May his first start and I should have
11:23
Speaker 3: put more stock into Joan Mixon coming back for this one.
11:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say that.
11:28
Speaker 1: I feel like we completely screwed this one up because
11:32
Speaker 1: we had the chance. This morning, like we were going
11:34
Speaker 1: through the games and we were really focused on Green
11:37
Speaker 1: Bay and Detroit, and at one point I said, are
11:40
Speaker 1: we sure we don't want to take out the Patriots,
11:43
Speaker 1: the Panthers, or.
11:45
Speaker 2: The Jets, and.
11:48
Speaker 1: We've sort of felt like we liked all those games
11:50
Speaker 1: and we liked the spots for those teams, and here
11:56
Speaker 1: we sit. The favorites were the ones that were easy,
12:01
Speaker 1: and the dogs are the ones that lost the way
12:04
Speaker 1: they always lose. The Patriots had they were down fourteen seven,
12:09
Speaker 1: got the opening kick in the second half, Drake May
12:12
Speaker 1: fumbles deep in his territory. Texans scored a touchdown. Patriod's
12:15
Speaker 1: down twenty four to seven. They fumbled on the first
12:18
Speaker 1: drive after going down twenty four to seven in their
12:23
Speaker 1: own territory, leads to a field goal. They're down twenty
12:26
Speaker 1: seven to fourteen. After they go down twenty seven to fourteen,
12:31
Speaker 1: first play the next drive through a pick at their
12:34
Speaker 1: own twenty two. Like every time they came close to
12:37
Speaker 1: getting it in, they lost the way these teams lose,
12:40
Speaker 1: which is what you get when you're betting on these teams.
12:44
Speaker 1: But it occurs to me, and I will put this
12:46
Speaker 1: note down. We didn't like We both love the Texans
12:50
Speaker 1: with Joe Mixon, it's been a reason why we felt
12:53
Speaker 1: they haven't been playing as well and one of the
12:56
Speaker 1: reasons why we faded them. Why didn't either of us
12:59
Speaker 1: think to say, wait a second, he's back. We knew
13:02
Speaker 1: he was back at this point, he had been announced
13:04
Speaker 1: he was going to play.
13:05
Speaker 2: Why didn't we even mention that?
13:08
Speaker 3: I mean, obvious answer is I had a decent amount
13:11
Speaker 3: of money already bet on it. The luck rankings loved it,
13:14
Speaker 3: which I put a lot of stake into, And there's
13:17
Speaker 3: trends at pointed two taking this number. So if you
13:20
Speaker 3: would have just going back in time to be like, well,
13:22
Speaker 3: Joe Mixon is back this week out of said that,
13:24
Speaker 3: who fucking cares it's his first game back, clearly would
13:27
Speaker 3: not have known he was going to come in and
13:29
Speaker 3: just wipe the floor with us. So, yeah, you're right,
13:32
Speaker 3: it's like I wish I could have thought about back.
13:33
Speaker 3: But again, it's not just you know, just the the
13:38
Speaker 3: fading of the public for what we do. Sometimes it's
13:41
Speaker 3: there's trends, there's what we're hearing the professionals are doing.
13:44
Speaker 3: And like we always say, if the luck Rankings love
13:47
Speaker 3: a spot, it's always gonna tilt us to it towards it.
13:50
Speaker 3: So and I think you picked it for your best
13:53
Speaker 3: bet on convinced me this morning, didn't you.
13:57
Speaker 2: I went with the Patriots.
13:59
Speaker 3: There's no we were dead. We were dead. It's it's
14:02
Speaker 3: just picking teams. You get caught every now and then.
14:05
Speaker 1: It was a dead bet. It was a dead bet,
14:09
Speaker 1: a great bet. Detroit at Dallas. We had Detroit minus
14:13
Speaker 1: three and a half. We handicapped this one perfectly. Our
14:18
Speaker 1: analysis was this team is on the rise. They are
14:22
Speaker 1: still undervalued. The Cowboys are getting more credit than they
14:25
Speaker 1: deserve for beating a bad Steelers team that could not
14:30
Speaker 1: take advantage of offensively of Dallas miscues. We believed the
14:36
Speaker 1: Lions would be physically dominant, and they were in.
14:38
Speaker 2: Every aspect to your credit, To your credit.
14:43
Speaker 1: When we were discussing the lines this morning, I was
14:46
Speaker 1: so nervous about it being Chalky. I did ask if
14:48
Speaker 1: we should take the Lions out because it was so
14:50
Speaker 1: public and we had a bad line, and we had
14:53
Speaker 1: been hearing noise all week about people liking the Cowboys,
14:58
Speaker 1: about professionals life king the Cowboys. And what you said
15:02
Speaker 1: to me was, Chalk is due. Thank god you were right.
15:09
Speaker 1: Chalk is eight three and one today, heading into the
15:11
Speaker 1: Senate football game, we need the Giants. We're going against
15:15
Speaker 1: the chalk tonight. We're going against the chalk tomorrow. But
15:20
Speaker 1: it was true today the Lions were on the right
15:24
Speaker 1: side from the get go, that they were never nervous
15:28
Speaker 1: in this game.
15:30
Speaker 3: I also never wavered on it. I mean I loved it.
15:32
Speaker 3: I think we talked Sunday about it. I bet it
15:35
Speaker 3: early just in case, I said, in case Dallas got
15:38
Speaker 3: blown out Sunday night. They didn't. We came in Tuesday show,
15:42
Speaker 3: you you believe me of your exact decision, and I
15:46
Speaker 3: said to you, you hadn't. I was gonna make it,
15:48
Speaker 3: Simon says. And then on Thursday show, I literally made
15:51
Speaker 3: it my sputure let pick.
15:53
Speaker 1: You totally fucked me on that totally. You totally stole
15:56
Speaker 1: it from me because you had first choice, and like
16:00
Speaker 1: I'm like, you fucker.
16:02
Speaker 3: But that's my whole point of Like, there was never
16:05
Speaker 3: a minute all week where I wasn't heavy betting this
16:09
Speaker 3: Detroit team, Like I bet them all along. And the
16:13
Speaker 3: scariest part was why was the number not moving? And
16:16
Speaker 3: I tell you all the time, sometimes the books know
16:18
Speaker 3: they're fucked and they know if they move it too much,
16:20
Speaker 3: they'll get even more money on the other side because
16:22
Speaker 3: then people will be like, see the professionals moved that.
16:25
Speaker 3: That is the right side. Now let's keep going heavier
16:27
Speaker 3: on Detroit. But even then, you know, it was just
16:31
Speaker 3: a bad number I took. Like I talked to bookmakers Friday, Saturday,
16:35
Speaker 3: and Sunday. All of them were saying it was like
16:37
Speaker 3: ten times the amount of money was on the lines,
16:39
Speaker 3: on the spread and all their parlays everything, And I
16:43
Speaker 3: was just like, man, you guys are really taking a
16:45
Speaker 3: standard on a bad Dallas team. I just did not
16:48
Speaker 3: understand it. Yeah, thank god we hammered that one. We
16:53
Speaker 3: needed it to go to and two. And like we
16:56
Speaker 3: always say, when you when you bet on these good quarterbacks,
16:59
Speaker 3: it's sometimes it's the best feel in the world because
17:01
Speaker 3: it's like, man, that was a no doubter, or they
17:04
Speaker 3: were just imposing their will the entire game. I think
17:07
Speaker 3: even the first drive, Dallas went down and kicked the
17:10
Speaker 3: field goal, and I just remember thinking, if if Detroit
17:12
Speaker 3: goes down and scores a touchdown, me and chat are
17:15
Speaker 3: good here. Not even that. They just literally ran it
17:17
Speaker 3: down their throat their first drive, and it's like, Okay,
17:19
Speaker 3: Montgomery's humming if once he gets going, you know, they're
17:22
Speaker 3: gonna get it going through the air, and that's what happened.
17:24
Speaker 3: I mean they almost put up fifty points once again.
17:27
Speaker 3: So yeah, But we talked about with Dallas, they're coming
17:31
Speaker 3: into this year. They're not that good of a team.
17:33
Speaker 3: Can't run the ball, can't stop the run. Detroit, we
17:36
Speaker 3: talked about them being my number one seed in the NFC.
17:41
Speaker 3: Every week. They just keep proving they're the best team
17:43
Speaker 3: right now. It's just when that offense is humming. I
17:45
Speaker 3: don't care what defense in the league can't stop them
17:49
Speaker 3: when it's indoors. So yeah, they're the team. Yeah, they're
17:52
Speaker 3: the team. If they get that one seed, it's gonna
17:54
Speaker 3: be crazy important. But I really can't wait to talk
17:56
Speaker 3: next week's games because it's like your division right now,
17:59
Speaker 3: every Divis game is going to be amazing, like all
18:02
Speaker 3: your all the teams in the NFC North are so good.
18:05
Speaker 3: I really can't wait to start getting these divisional matchups.
18:08
Speaker 1: So look, the NFC North right now was eighteen and
18:10
Speaker 1: four again bred entering week seven. It's the best ATS
18:17
Speaker 1: win percentage for any division through six weeks. In the
18:21
Speaker 1: wild card eras.
18:24
Speaker 3: With a rookie Sam Darnold and second year starter Jordan Love.
18:28
Speaker 3: That's pretty impressive.
18:29
Speaker 1: And by the way, Jordan Love, who missed multiple games,
18:31
Speaker 1: Yeah right, And so like, the Vikings are five and
18:36
Speaker 1: o ats, the Bears are five and one Ats, it's crazy.
18:40
Speaker 1: Lions are four and one. Packers are four and two.
18:43
Speaker 1: Caleb Williams. We're not going to spend too much time
18:45
Speaker 1: on it, but the guy accounted for five touchdowns today.
18:50
Speaker 1: Like he was freaking brawless, four touchdown passes, a touchdown run.
18:54
Speaker 1: He's scrambling strategically on a beautiful, beautifully designed play where
19:00
Speaker 1: it was like reverse like he had to fake a
19:05
Speaker 1: reverse fake, a screen hit Cole Commit streaking down the middle.
19:08
Speaker 1: The fort work was beautiful. The way he handled the
19:14
Speaker 1: fakes was perfect. I mean, this team was insanely good.
19:18
Speaker 1: Now all admittedly they played bad teams, but you gotta
19:22
Speaker 1: beat bad teams, and they're looking really good doing it
19:24
Speaker 1: right now, especially today. Here's the story out of this game,
19:29
Speaker 1: as much as it was about how terrible the Cowboys
19:31
Speaker 1: are and the Lions dominating on offensively. Aiden Hutchinson was
19:36
Speaker 1: the leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. He
19:38
Speaker 1: was leading the league in sacks. He was a guy
19:40
Speaker 1: we both bet at fourteen to one to lead the
19:43
Speaker 1: league in sacks. This team has finally figured it out
19:46
Speaker 1: what their identity is as a physically dominant team, dynamic
19:52
Speaker 1: athletically on both sides of the ball. He represents so
19:55
Speaker 1: much of who they are. He went out with a
19:57
Speaker 1: gruesome leg injury. Had to he cut it off. He
20:00
Speaker 1: knew it immediately on his second sack of the game.
20:04
Speaker 1: I don't know what happens now, Like I, how do
20:08
Speaker 1: you as a professional better handicap this? Because it does
20:12
Speaker 1: change their dynamic defensively.
20:16
Speaker 3: It does. No, it's brutal. I mean, it's hard to
20:19
Speaker 3: put what it's going to mean to the model. I
20:21
Speaker 3: mean maybe half a point, but I doubt that I'll
20:24
Speaker 3: move it that much honestly, But we'll see he could.
20:27
Speaker 3: But I would say for any fan, it just makes
20:29
Speaker 3: you not think, No, I shouldn't say. It makes you
20:33
Speaker 3: think that maybe this team come playoff time won't go
20:36
Speaker 3: to the super Bowl, like a lot of people are
20:37
Speaker 3: picking them for right, because you know there's any moments
20:39
Speaker 3: where you need yeah guy, And we see it like
20:43
Speaker 3: Nick Bosa in that Seahawks game. He took over right
20:46
Speaker 3: once the team had to pass the ball. That's when
20:48
Speaker 3: these guys who are just such game changers take over.
20:51
Speaker 3: And how do you not suffer when you lose a
20:54
Speaker 3: top five pass rusher. It's like, these guys are so rare,
20:58
Speaker 3: so unique, that's why they make so much money. You
21:01
Speaker 3: just can't replace something like that. So for me, I
21:04
Speaker 3: don't know. I probably doesn't do anything for me divisionalwise.
21:07
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna let my lines bet keep riding for
21:09
Speaker 3: right now. But how does it not make you nervous
21:12
Speaker 3: knowing that in the playoffs it's going to matter, like
21:14
Speaker 3: him not being there is going to matter in these
21:15
Speaker 3: really close games where every little snap is the difference,
21:20
Speaker 3: and he is the ultimate game changer for that defense
21:22
Speaker 3: in Detroit. So yeah, brutal for Detroit fans, big loss.
21:26
Speaker 1: Reddick is out there, been dropped by his agency, has
21:29
Speaker 1: lost about twenty million bucks around.
21:31
Speaker 3: I mean, don't want to kind a big story about it.
21:33
Speaker 3: But what happened to him in Japan? The man went
21:35
Speaker 3: to Japan, skipped camp and has not been the same since.
21:41
Speaker 2: Like, so that's a whole other story. It's bizarre, It's
21:44
Speaker 2: totally bizarre.
21:46
Speaker 1: The fact he was shuttled out of Philly is kind
21:49
Speaker 1: of bizarre considering how well he was playing.
21:51
Speaker 3: Well he wanted new money, and how he was just like, Okay,
21:54
Speaker 3: get him out of here before this comes into a problem.
21:57
Speaker 3: And I never thought it would be like this though
21:59
Speaker 3: He's a good dude.
22:00
Speaker 1: What I was going to say is that Trayvon Walker,
22:03
Speaker 1: who was the number one overall pick of the Jags
22:06
Speaker 1: taken instead of Aden Hutchinson, there was a mention in
22:11
Speaker 1: a story this past week that could the Lions trade
22:14
Speaker 1: for him as sort of the complementary rusher if the
22:17
Speaker 1: Jags continue to fall out of contention. So who knows
22:21
Speaker 1: what the Lions are going to do, but certainly it's
22:23
Speaker 1: something that's going to be a conversation because this is.
22:26
Speaker 2: A team I like.
22:29
Speaker 1: Going into this week, I felt like they were the
22:31
Speaker 1: number one team in the NFC, like what they had
22:32
Speaker 1: done against Seattle and what I expected them to do
22:35
Speaker 1: against the Cowboys. Most complete team changes a little bit,
22:40
Speaker 1: so we've talked about a little bit so we don't
22:42
Speaker 1: just spend too much time on it. But the conversation
22:44
Speaker 1: we had this morning, like we weren't loving the lines
22:47
Speaker 1: we were getting. They were about half point worse than
22:50
Speaker 1: the market. Ultimately, it didn't matter. You know, we nearly
22:54
Speaker 1: put the Raiders in and kicked out the Packers. We
22:56
Speaker 1: decided we were overthinking it. The one game we screwed up,
23:00
Speaker 1: think was the Chargers. Like it's similar to the Cardinals.
23:03
Speaker 1: Last week we had the best number of any game
23:06
Speaker 1: that was two and a half. We had great analysis
23:09
Speaker 1: on this team all week. We loved it. Do you
23:12
Speaker 1: think we passed because this was a game where while
23:16
Speaker 1: we loved it, we were hearing whispers from professionals that
23:20
Speaker 1: they liked the Broncos, Like, why did we end up
23:23
Speaker 1: walking away from this one?
23:25
Speaker 3: It could be you're right, though we definitely did talk
23:28
Speaker 3: about I mean we both bet it. We thought, yeah,
23:31
Speaker 3: this was a funky number all week. It was very
23:34
Speaker 3: telling by the sports books that this number was off
23:37
Speaker 3: in favoring this Vegas I mean this Chargers team, where
23:41
Speaker 3: us and the general public were like, well, this Broncos
23:44
Speaker 3: defense is playing really good and bow Knicks has been
23:46
Speaker 3: playing well enough not turn the ball over and keeping
23:49
Speaker 3: them in games. And you know the last time we
23:51
Speaker 3: saw this Chargers team, they were all banged up and
23:53
Speaker 3: all out of sorts, especially Herbert, I mean talk about
23:56
Speaker 3: night and day. Right, that was a great Herbert game,
23:59
Speaker 3: you have a complete contry all the whole game. You know, Cowherd,
24:02
Speaker 3: I know Cowhard's crazy theory about just taking the better QB.
24:06
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, yeah, I hate that theory, but today he's
24:10
Speaker 3: a genius. Basically every game the better quarterback to Yeah,
24:16
Speaker 3: a good day for Cowherd and his his betting. But
24:19
Speaker 3: like he was right talking about this game with that
24:22
Speaker 3: where it's like one side has the better quarterback and
24:26
Speaker 3: right now the best weaponry is their offensive line. Like
24:30
Speaker 3: when those guys are all healthy up front, they completely
24:34
Speaker 3: neutralize the front seven of Denver, which is what's been
24:37
Speaker 3: Denver's strength. And Patrick Sartaine, I believe went out in
24:41
Speaker 3: the second quarter. I could be maybe it was a
24:43
Speaker 3: third quarter, but no, really think you would think that's
24:46
Speaker 3: not big of a difference, but it is. He's that dominant,
24:48
Speaker 3: that shutdown of a corner that as soon as he
24:50
Speaker 3: did go out, you saw every third down Herbert needed it.
24:53
Speaker 3: He had guys streaking open in the middle for you know,
24:56
Speaker 3: various reasons. So yeah, that that was good number A
25:00
Speaker 3: game I wish we had put in. But at the
25:02
Speaker 3: end of the day, I don't know for me to
25:05
Speaker 3: convince you to put three favorites in. That would have been, Uh,
25:08
Speaker 3: that would have been pretty tough. I think same for me,
25:10
Speaker 3: Like for you to be like, let's go three favorites.
25:12
Speaker 2: This week, we wouldn't have done it.
25:14
Speaker 3: I know. We're just not built that way unfortunately, which
25:16
Speaker 3: I hate, like even today again that we both had bets,
25:21
Speaker 3: liked them all week in Detroit and just because they
25:24
Speaker 3: were so public, for a second we thought about switching
25:27
Speaker 3: them out, which is like, again I said it to
25:29
Speaker 3: you in the moment, it was just like, we're overthinking
25:31
Speaker 3: this right now. Don't switch any of these fucking guys out.
25:34
Speaker 3: Let's just keep these five. And no matter what we
25:37
Speaker 3: would have done, I'm just so glad we didn't put
25:40
Speaker 3: that Raiders winning because that was just just a bad bet. Right,
25:43
Speaker 3: So the charge one we did read write, but it
25:45
Speaker 3: was just tough to put a third favorite in.
25:47
Speaker 1: I wish we had taken out Carolina. We had Carolina
25:49
Speaker 1: five and a half. Shame on us, Shame on the Panthers. Uh.
25:53
Speaker 1: The only thing I'll say is that this there was
25:56
Speaker 1: a drive in the fourth quarter.
26:00
Speaker 3: One five against the spread this season.
26:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, this drive to start the fourth quarter epitomizes Carolina
26:06
Speaker 1: and why we didn't deserve to win. They're in the
26:08
Speaker 1: game the whole time. They're down twenty eight to twenty.
26:10
Speaker 1: To start the fourth, they're playing against the worst rush
26:12
Speaker 1: defense in the league. They have Tuba Hubbard to start
26:17
Speaker 1: this quarter runs the ball four times for thirty four yards.
26:23
Speaker 1: Run run, run, run, run, running all over this team.
26:27
Speaker 1: Then they decide to get cute. They have Andy Dalton
26:30
Speaker 1: roll out, throws it in completion. Next play, fake run,
26:35
Speaker 1: Andy Dalton throws a pick at the falcons sixteen yard line.
26:41
Speaker 1: Next drive, the Falcons go eighty four yards score put
26:45
Speaker 1: away touchdown. And by the way, Algiers he was running
26:51
Speaker 1: on one of the plays first got gang tackled at
26:55
Speaker 1: the twenty two yard line of the Falcons didn't go
26:58
Speaker 1: down until the thirty six. Like we get what we deserve.
27:03
Speaker 1: I'm I'm ashamed. We shouldn't have done it. We were
27:06
Speaker 1: so excited we thought, like, oh my god, I was like,
27:09
Speaker 1: I got I got the Panthers plus six and a
27:11
Speaker 1: half today, Like, fuck me, that's just ridiculous. How do
27:18
Speaker 1: we not put the Colts in? We had the Colts
27:20
Speaker 1: of plus three and we knew Joe Flaka was playing,
27:22
Speaker 1: which if we knew Joe Flacca was playing on Tuesday
27:25
Speaker 1: and we had the Colts of plus three, we would
27:27
Speaker 1: have taken that in two seconds.
27:28
Speaker 3: Well it's two and a half contest, but I agree,
27:31
Speaker 3: like we talked about it on convinced me. We're like,
27:34
Speaker 3: oh my god, Joe flatc goes in, he's getting two
27:36
Speaker 3: and a half against Will Levis. But no, the Panthers.
27:41
Speaker 3: I don't want to talk about too much because I
27:43
Speaker 3: just know our fans have already turned the show off
27:44
Speaker 3: as soon as we brought them up. I'm sorry everyone,
27:47
Speaker 3: I promise I don't even care. If they win five
27:50
Speaker 3: straight in a row, we will never have them again.
27:53
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, let's talk about some week seven lines,
27:56
Speaker 1: thank you, that we're looking at. Like, obviously Casey is
28:00
Speaker 1: minus one at San Francisco right now, every part of
28:04
Speaker 1: my being wants to take San Francisco's.
28:08
Speaker 3: Bet three, six, five or plus one.
28:11
Speaker 2: Really, so it's move, it's moved, It's moved.
28:13
Speaker 1: Then it's moved since I came upstairs to my very
28:20
Speaker 1: expansive third floor studio, the Tommy John Studio. So wow,
28:26
Speaker 1: that's interesting. That is so all right, give me your
28:30
Speaker 1: your hot take right now. It's not a game that,
28:31
Speaker 1: like I was pegging we have to bet it, but
28:34
Speaker 1: I didn't want to not talk about it.
28:38
Speaker 3: I mean, we're supposed to take the Chiefs now, but
28:43
Speaker 3: I don't got to read on this one. I'll love
28:44
Speaker 3: the number, dictate it where it's like, if it moves
28:48
Speaker 3: up to Chief's been a bigger dog, no brainer. If
28:51
Speaker 3: the forty nine Ers end up becoming the dog, maybe
28:53
Speaker 3: I'll end up being the forty nine ers, but I
28:55
Speaker 3: just like the dog on the side. It's just in
28:59
Speaker 3: my mind this this number should be minus one and
29:02
Speaker 3: a half Chiefs, Like, I think they're the better team
29:05
Speaker 3: right now. I think the value is in the Chiefs,
29:06
Speaker 3: So I'll take the one right now. But it's like,
29:10
Speaker 3: if this is one and a half, you gotta find
29:11
Speaker 3: a partner for a teaser. Teasing the Chiefs up to
29:13
Speaker 3: seven and a half against the forty nine ers team
29:15
Speaker 3: is like a gift. We see we talked about last week.
29:19
Speaker 3: They're just the forty nine ers is not the same
29:20
Speaker 3: team without Christian McCaffrey and yep, it's it's apparent that
29:25
Speaker 3: you're putting a lot onder brock pretty shoulder. Now he's
29:28
Speaker 3: going up against the Spags defense that you know they're
29:31
Speaker 3: going to turn you over. If you're throwing the ball
29:32
Speaker 3: a lot. It's just only a matter of time. He'll
29:34
Speaker 3: he'll get you eventually. So yeah, I definitely think the
29:38
Speaker 3: Chiefs keep becoming a bigger dog. This will end up
29:40
Speaker 3: being one over five.
29:42
Speaker 1: Green Bay is a two and a half point home
29:44
Speaker 1: favored against Houston. My immediate instinct is I like green
29:51
Speaker 1: Bay less than field goal.
29:53
Speaker 3: Wow, my immediate I like Houston. So we're split.
29:56
Speaker 2: Interesting, All right, Well, give me give me your take.
30:01
Speaker 3: My take is I think the public will think like
30:04
Speaker 3: you and maybe I'll maybe maybe you're right, this is
30:06
Speaker 3: a good time we take it now, because I do
30:07
Speaker 3: think I'll go up a little bit, That's what I think.
30:10
Speaker 3: So I think maybe I'll be able to get a
30:11
Speaker 3: better number on Houston. But yeah, that's that's that's a
30:15
Speaker 3: fun game. You know, you're probably right. I bet you.
30:19
Speaker 3: The Packers probably is the smart side to take right now,
30:22
Speaker 3: just because it is under three. But I think this
30:25
Speaker 3: is just a nice matchup for a Houston team that,
30:29
Speaker 3: you know, say what you want about them, when when
30:33
Speaker 3: CJ is in rhythm and that defense is getting pressure
30:37
Speaker 3: from the outside, they're just really hard to beat Houston.
30:39
Speaker 3: There's a reason they have only lost one game this year.
30:43
Speaker 1: CJ on the road. The Packers are a better team
30:48
Speaker 1: than the Patriots. Jordan Love is a better quarterback than
30:52
Speaker 1: Drake may We don't know from a defensive back point
30:57
Speaker 1: of view, who's going to be back for Huon. A
31:00
Speaker 1: lot of guys missed today as much against the Patriots.
31:03
Speaker 1: But Matt LeFlore is a better coach than Girad Mayo. Like,
31:10
Speaker 1: this is a very interesting game. I think you're getting
31:14
Speaker 1: It would be very interesting on Tuesday when we talk
31:16
Speaker 1: to see where the money is and how the line
31:19
Speaker 1: is moved, because I think Houston's the public side here.
31:23
Speaker 3: That could be that's fair. I'm torn on this one.
31:26
Speaker 1: Uh, Detroit Minnesota. We just talked about, like this division
31:31
Speaker 1: against the spread.
31:32
Speaker 3: And you know we have to do what's that? So
31:35
Speaker 3: you know what we have to do? Tell me we
31:38
Speaker 3: have to feed the Vikings. They haven't they've covered every week.
31:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, Detroit to a one point underdog. I like, I
31:45
Speaker 1: was worried you were going to say take the Vikings.
31:47
Speaker 3: Well, we're supposed to do, because it's like every one
31:49
Speaker 3: in their grandmom's gonna bet the Detroit team as a
31:51
Speaker 3: dog here, but it's like we're indoors. They everything the
31:57
Speaker 3: Vikings do well. Detroit could come at that with their run,
32:01
Speaker 3: Like you can't do that style of defense against a
32:04
Speaker 3: good team, a team that could run the ball. And
32:07
Speaker 3: you know, I guess is a letdown spot for the
32:10
Speaker 3: Lions after that big win on the road, a big
32:13
Speaker 3: injury to one of their best defenders, and Minnesota coming
32:16
Speaker 3: off a bye week here, But what a fishy number.
32:20
Speaker 3: Because Chad's right, like we should want to take the Vikings.
32:23
Speaker 3: The book's telling us to take the Vikings here, but
32:26
Speaker 3: it's hard to me to back a Vikings team that's
32:29
Speaker 3: just so inflated right now value wise, just because they've
32:32
Speaker 3: covered every fucking week. It's it's mental. So yeah, it's crazy,
32:37
Speaker 3: it really is. So yeah, My gut instinct right now
32:41
Speaker 3: is I'm gonna throw a nice teaser with Detroit Lions
32:43
Speaker 3: seven and a half and the Chiefs up to seven
32:46
Speaker 3: right now, Like that's just an easy bet to make
32:48
Speaker 3: the night. And you know books are gonna limit to
32:51
Speaker 3: you a thousand bucks right now, I'm happy to make
32:53
Speaker 3: a thousand dollar teaser. It's like that both those guys
32:56
Speaker 3: as big dogs against these two favorites. I don't know
33:01
Speaker 3: when we talked about this week, road teams have been
33:03
Speaker 3: doing well even today, right, road teams really dominated the day.
33:06
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, home Field really you know, it's we talked
33:12
Speaker 3: about it last year, like Homefield was down to two
33:14
Speaker 3: and a half. Two, I mean, it's right there still.
33:17
Speaker 3: So I don't know this This line feels like it's
33:20
Speaker 3: a little too much respect to this Minnesota team, especially
33:22
Speaker 3: at minus one and a half on about three six live.
33:25
Speaker 2: I do wonder if the books are are.
33:28
Speaker 1: Positioning this as they know that the public might come
33:33
Speaker 1: in on the Vikings, not just because of Vikings have played.
33:37
Speaker 3: The Lions have to be the public side, right.
33:40
Speaker 1: I don't know because of Aiden Hutchinson, Like people will
33:42
Speaker 1: You're right, people will look at this and think this
33:46
Speaker 1: team is going to feel devastated. He is a very
33:49
Speaker 1: popular player, right, Like he is a guy who people
33:53
Speaker 1: loved when he was at Michigan. They love the narrative,
33:56
Speaker 1: they love how dominant he has been, Like he's in commercials.
34:01
Speaker 1: You don't get a lot of defensive ends other than
34:03
Speaker 1: guys named Watt who are in commercials, right, right, So
34:08
Speaker 1: I think all that is going to have an impact
34:09
Speaker 1: on how the public looks at this team. And him
34:13
Speaker 1: being gone, I think is going to send people to Minnesota,
34:16
Speaker 1: especially with them being as good as they've been and
34:22
Speaker 1: getting so much attention. So that'll be another one. It'll
34:24
Speaker 1: be really interesting to see how things are trending. Forty
34:28
Speaker 1: eight hours from now. I had two more games kind
34:34
Speaker 1: of but one more specifically. It's a Sunday night game.
34:39
Speaker 1: It's Tampa Bay as a four and a half.
34:41
Speaker 3: Point Monday night. There's Monday night games.
34:43
Speaker 1: Oh, it's two Monday nights Tampa Bay plus four and
34:46
Speaker 1: a half at home against Baltimore. This Baltimore team is.
34:53
Speaker 2: Really good. They've still got so many issues defensively in
34:58
Speaker 2: the middle of the field.
35:00
Speaker 3: Two year old coordinator is not getting the job done
35:02
Speaker 3: right now. I think they need to make a change
35:04
Speaker 3: of DC.
35:05
Speaker 1: They cannot stop anybody like that what Jaden Daniels was
35:08
Speaker 1: doing to them. This is someone who had the under
35:10
Speaker 1: and feels like he got kicked in the dick because
35:13
Speaker 1: they they basically had the under. It was thirty twenty
35:18
Speaker 1: and Jaden Daniels through a hail Mary thirty five yards
35:21
Speaker 1: downfield that the Ravens got called for a pass interference,
35:26
Speaker 1: they're down ten. They kicked the easy field goal. It's
35:30
Speaker 1: thirty to twenty three. That's where it lands. I lose
35:33
Speaker 1: the over. I lose the under And it was only
35:38
Speaker 1: as close as it was because they couldn't stop them ever.
35:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I mean Baker, we're not giving them enough credit,
35:47
Speaker 3: abou how well he's played this year. In Night Sayings game,
35:50
Speaker 3: everything was going wrong. Mike Evans was hurt. I think
35:53
Speaker 3: he had three picks. Maybe it was only two, it
35:55
Speaker 3: felt like three. And he's still found a way to
35:59
Speaker 3: win that game by double digits.
36:01
Speaker 2: Yeah.
36:03
Speaker 3: It was really impressive because they had a total meltdown.
36:05
Speaker 3: What were they up seventeen to nothing? Yeah, and the
36:08
Speaker 3: Saints come all the way back through up twenty to seventeen.
36:10
Speaker 2: And they were winning like a few times they were up.
36:13
Speaker 3: Yeah. And you know a guy I love today, It
36:17
Speaker 3: was Godwin. He went off I think at one hundred
36:19
Speaker 3: and twenty five yards or two touchdowns.
36:20
Speaker 2: That acced me. That was your over on the prop today.
36:24
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it was one of my biggest bet brother
36:26
Speaker 3: props where it's like Godwin and Mike Evans that combo
36:30
Speaker 3: are just so dominant right now and with Baker, you know,
36:33
Speaker 3: being in total zone. They're always going to be in
36:36
Speaker 3: these games, Like it feels like they're always gonna be
36:38
Speaker 3: able to eve me. If they're down double digits, they
36:40
Speaker 3: can find a way to get back in these games
36:41
Speaker 3: and stay scrappy. Now we talked about their defense. I
36:45
Speaker 3: think the key to this defense is definitely them against
36:49
Speaker 3: their run, like they can be passed on. So this
36:52
Speaker 3: is gonna be another matchup of I think the team's
36:54
Speaker 3: going to try and make Lamar beat them. And you know,
36:57
Speaker 3: Lamar probably the MVP right now. Foot he stepped up
37:00
Speaker 3: to the plate throwing this year, I mean he has
37:02
Speaker 3: done really well passing the ball. So I would grab
37:06
Speaker 3: the four and a half. I could see this being
37:07
Speaker 3: going down to four three and a half by kickoff.
37:09
Speaker 3: It's just even if the public's really heavy on this
37:12
Speaker 3: Baltimore team, I just I can't see the professionals coming
37:15
Speaker 3: in on this Buccaneers team, especially four and a half.
37:19
Speaker 3: That's just too many points to me.
37:20
Speaker 2: So I wouldn't got that right now, Who am I missing?
37:25
Speaker 3: Just for games that jumped out to me that I
37:27
Speaker 3: haven't bet it, or I shouldn't say haven't, but I
37:30
Speaker 3: did bet it, but it's like very small. I took
37:32
Speaker 3: the Rams five and a half against Vegas just in
37:35
Speaker 3: case it is Aidan O'Connell. I can see keep going up.
37:39
Speaker 3: They just look totally hopeless and this has got to
37:43
Speaker 3: be it for this Rams team. I mean, they don't
37:45
Speaker 3: get any more desperate after there by a week Cooper
37:47
Speaker 3: Cups supposed to be back. We'll see if Puka's back. Unlikely,
37:52
Speaker 3: but you know that right there can move this point,
37:54
Speaker 3: this up to a point right moving up to six
37:56
Speaker 3: and a half if both those guys are back. So
37:58
Speaker 3: that's just a number I'm grabbing early. And they are
38:01
Speaker 3: fully healthy offensively coming out of this bye a week
38:04
Speaker 3: and I mean a game you know that just jumps
38:08
Speaker 3: out to me just to grab it right now? Is
38:10
Speaker 3: that Atlanta is minus two and a half right now
38:12
Speaker 3: against Seattle at home? Don't we have to grab that
38:15
Speaker 3: Atlanta at home under three against three.
38:19
Speaker 2: So that's why I didn't mention it.
38:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's two and a half right now, befre it's
38:24
Speaker 3: minus one twenty. But like to me, that's something I'm
38:27
Speaker 3: gonna bet right now, just because Seattle's defense needs to
38:30
Speaker 3: show me they can get stops like every game we've
38:34
Speaker 3: watched of them when they've played offenses that are just
38:37
Speaker 3: aren't dumb. They can move the ball anyway they want.
38:40
Speaker 3: And say which went about Atlanta's defense. Their offense is
38:44
Speaker 3: really good right now. Like Kirk even if he's not
38:47
Speaker 3: even putting any pressure on his back legs still on
38:49
Speaker 3: that achilles, it doesn't matter. Like he's in total rhythm.
38:52
Speaker 3: He doesn't need to throw the ball all the way downfield.
38:54
Speaker 3: He can just keep picking you apart in between twenty
38:57
Speaker 3: thirty yards and it's it's just been working with a
38:59
Speaker 3: one two punch on their run game right now for Atlanta.
39:01
Speaker 3: So I make this number three and a half. I'd
39:04
Speaker 3: grab it right now if you could still get the
39:06
Speaker 3: minus two and a half for Atlanta.
39:08
Speaker 1: All Right, We're going to take a deeper dive at Detroit.
39:11
Speaker 1: With Detroit and Minnesota, we want to see how things
39:13
Speaker 1: play out there. Obviously, Kansas City and San Francisco early
39:17
Speaker 1: leans on Tampa Bay plus four and a half, the
39:21
Speaker 1: Rams minus five and a half, Atlanta minus two and
39:24
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