Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 39 - 5/8/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 39 - 5/8/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:18
  Hello and welcome to episode 30. Nine of the all.
• 0:23
  Systems go sports betting. Podcast powered by rhythm.
• 0:27
  I'm your host, Josh. What's going on everyone?
• 0:33
  Happy Wednesday, we are halfway through our work.
• 0:36
  Week and we got. After it last night, guys, a
• 0:38
  great. Night in the Arena 4 and 2 + 1.
• 0:41
  .27 units you love to. See it paced.
• 0:44
  By A. Decent night in MLB, two and
• 0:47
  two. Got the.
• 0:47
  Cubs shout out. To Michael Bush with a huge.
• 0:50
  Walk off home. Run.
• 0:52
  The Cubs are up one. Nothing.
• 0:53
  And Shota Imanaga was pitching. Great.
• 0:56
  Then he gave up A2 Run Homer. To Profar and they got down 2 to
• 0:59
  one in the eighth and then the. Cubs tied it in the eighth.
• 1:03
  They walked it off in the 9th. So.
• 1:05
  Shout out to Michael Bush. Oh, you beer.
• 1:07
  Also got the Phillies? Phillies continue to print money
• 1:10
  for us, which is fantastic. The losers were the Orioles and
• 1:13
  the Pirates. Orioles losing.
• 1:15
  That's like a -, 202 Twenty favorite.
• 1:17
  That was kind of gross. But the reason?
• 1:19
  Why We had a good night. Shout out to rhythm.
• 1:21
  And Juice reel. Two of the best.
• 1:24
  Sports betting apps on the. Market that I'm proud to say.
• 1:27
  I've partnered with and help promote and sponsor this.
• 1:29
  Podcast, but we had. Juice Reel come up.
• 1:32
  Absolutely huge. For us last night with the
• 1:35
  Avalanche. So Avalanche, able to come
• 1:38
  through in overtime, had to sweat.
• 1:39
  Like. Crazy.
• 1:40
  I was dripping sweat on that one, but the ABS got down 3.
• 1:43
  Nothing. I'm like OK.
• 1:44
  And this one ain't looking good. I was.
• 1:45
  Like, hey, it's only first period a lot of time.
• 1:47
  Left the ABS roar. Back Tie it up three to three.
• 1:50
  Win it in overtime. Miles Wood.
• 1:53
  A Not a breakaway, kind of a breakaway, but backhand winner
• 1:56
  there for the ABS and then shout out to rhythm.
• 1:59
  With a great. Piece of advice to take, OK?
• 2:02
  C OK C. On the money line at minus. 160
• 2:05
  rhythm had a projection there where they're going to cover the
• 2:09
  number and went out right. So we played that rhythm edge
• 2:12
  there with OK C and the OK C Thunder got a big win.
• 2:15
  For us on the money line and. Now we're looking good.
• 2:17
  I'm glad we got that. OK C Series price prior to the
• 2:21
  game yesterday 'cause we got? It at -125, they're up one.
• 2:24
  O in the series. Doncic's knee looks a little
• 2:26
  iffy. Guess what the price is now,
• 2:28
  guys. OK C to win the.
• 2:29
  Series -230. So great to see a good number
• 2:34
  there with OK C hopefully we can get that series bet as well, so
• 2:37
  four and two. +1 .27 units and again, shout out to Juice Reel
• 2:41
  and Rhythm who helped us cash a couple plays last.
• 2:44
  Night and as always. I want you guys to take
• 2:46
  advantage of Rhythm and Juice Reel.
• 2:48
  I like to highlight, you know, I like to pick a couple bets that
• 2:51
  Juice. Reel or rhythm recommends that
• 2:52
  kind of coincide. With my strategy and the way I'm
• 2:55
  looking at the market. But remember Rhythm and Juice
• 2:57
  Reel. Have tons of bets.
• 2:59
  Tons of. Advantages Rhythm is all about.
• 3:01
  Projections. AI driven game bets.
• 3:04
  And props especially. If you like NBA player props,
• 3:06
  Juice reel, They got the two picks from Robo Jackson each
• 3:09
  day. As well as.
• 3:10
  Syncing your sports book. To the Juice Reel apps, you can
• 3:13
  track your. Performance like let's say you
• 3:15
  have an ESPN. Bet account you bet you open up
• 3:18
  your ESPN bet account you put in.
• 3:20
  You know ABS last night it. Automatically goes to juice.
• 3:22
  Reel. You can track your performance,
• 3:24
  learn about yourself. As a better.
• 3:25
  There's also. Opportunities to take advantage
• 3:28
  of arbitrage bets. You know you're only going to
• 3:30
  make 510 bucks, but they're basically guarantees.
• 3:32
  There's no such locker, so no such thing.
• 3:35
  As a locker. Or guarantee in betting except
• 3:37
  arbitrage. That's when you can bet both
• 3:39
  sides, or the two differing sides of a bet, but because they
• 3:42
  have different odds at different books, you guarantee yourself a
• 3:45
  winner. So.
• 3:46
  If you haven't done it yet, I want you to sign up for Rhythm.
• 3:48
  And Juice reel. Give it a 7 day free trial.
• 3:51
  And then you can start making sharp bets.
• 3:52
  Today. I've made it very simple.
• 3:53
  I've streamlined it. It only took me, what, 3030?
• 3:56
  Some odd episodes. But make it easy on yourself
• 3:58
  guys, if you are. Listening to this podcast on
• 4:01
  either Spotify. Or iTunes.
• 4:03
  Just click the bio description of this podcast and there should
• 4:06
  be some notes in there explaining what today's pod is
• 4:09
  about. And then Scroll down.
• 4:10
  There'll be a link. For a rhythm. 7 day free trial
• 4:13
  and a juice reel. 7 day free trial.
• 4:14
  So take advantage. I think you're going to like it.
• 4:17
  And I hope you guys know I'm not a shill, you know, a tout.
• 4:20
  I think that's kind of the worst word in sports betting.
• 4:22
  I like to. Partner with apps and companies.
• 4:24
  And sites that to. Me have.
• 4:26
  Utility and help Betters win and I have respect for and I know
• 4:29
  who runs them and Juice Reel and Rhythm are the two best in the
• 4:32
  game so I'm proud to partner with them.
• 4:34
  I want you to start winning and helping them with helping.
• 4:37
  Have them help you when I should say so.
• 4:38
  Sign up in the bio of this pod Rhythm and Juice reel.
• 4:42
  Give it a shot. A7 day free trial.
• 4:44
  So enough yesterday. It was a great day, but the
• 4:46
  thing about sports betting is whether.
• 4:47
  You have a great day or a terrible day.
• 4:49
  It's always turn the. Page, it's always.
• 4:51
  Even keel it's always. Grind, grind, grind.
• 4:53
  So today, let's look. Toward a six pack in the sports
• 4:56
  betting arena, I have. Three Major League Baseball
• 4:58
  bets. And then I have two NHL bets,
• 5:02
  both of which. Are some.
• 5:03
  Juice Reel recommendations from. Robo Jackson, our buddy who was
• 5:07
  an AI bot I call. Him a buddy, but he's basically
• 5:10
  a AI robot that, you know, Space Odyssey 2001.
• 5:14
  He'll probably take over the world at some point, but he's
• 5:15
  going to help us cash plays in them in the interim.
• 5:18
  And then I got to play. On the Indiana Pacers Knicks
• 5:21
  game tonight, Game two, and it is a good angle here from
• 5:25
  rhythm, so hopefully rhythm will help us cash that bet as well.
• 5:28
  So without further ado. Let's get after it.
• 5:30
  On a big Wednesday. I want to start off with some
• 5:33
  Major League Baseball. I know there's.
• 5:34
  Some day sweats here going on so.
• 5:36
  Hopefully we can catch a few of those, but first one.
• 5:39
  I wanted to mention is. The Bronx Bombers.
• 5:42
  The Yankees. Let's go Yankees.
• 5:44
  I'm going to take a shot on the Yankees here today, guys.
• 5:46
  They're at home against the Houston Astros.
• 5:48
  We saw the Yankees. Who are now 24 and 13.
• 5:50
  They won the opener. Last.
• 5:52
  Night 2:50 Cashing as a. -125 home favorite?
• 5:56
  What's up with the Astros? Man, I don't know how they're so
• 5:59
  bad. They got a lot of great players.
• 6:00
  I guess they're pitching is just terrible, but they're now. 12
• 6:03
  and 23. One of the worst records in
• 6:04
  baseball they will be. Starting Spencer Araghetti
• 6:08
  tonight. O and three 8.27 ERA.
• 6:11
  Yankees are going with lefty Carlos.
• 6:13
  Verdan, who bounced back after a bad first year in New York.
• 6:16
  He's two and two three-point. 68 ERA What?
• 6:18
  Have we seen across the market here?
• 6:20
  Well, decent movement. Toward the Bronx Bombers.
• 6:22
  The Yankees opened. As low as a -, 135 home.
• 6:25
  Favorite Yankees have now. Been bet up.
• 6:27
  To -1. 50 And I see some shops even.
• 6:30
  Closer. To -160.
• 6:31
  So right off the bat, we have a good, you know, 10. 15 Nearly a
• 6:35
  $0.20 Steam move. In favor of.
• 6:37
  The Yankees telling us the bigger.
• 6:38
  Sharper waders. Are on the Bronx.
• 6:40
  Bombers here they're getting. About 85% of money line bets in
• 6:43
  dollars, so a heavy combination. Of public and sharp.
• 6:46
  Support, but remember. Sharp support to me.
• 6:48
  That percentage is kind of. Back up or kind of give you?
• 6:52
  Further evidence of sharp money, But remember sharp.
• 6:54
  Money is usually. Found by the line.
• 6:56
  Move because pros move are the odds makers.
• 6:58
  Adjust the number. Move the number based on
• 7:00
  respect. To money coming in now they can
• 7:01
  also move based on an injury or. You know a weather change,
• 7:05
  something like that, but most of the time as.
• 7:07
  As long as the pitcher didn't get scratched or you know.
• 7:10
  Bryce Harper's not out of the. Line up, usually.
• 7:12
  It's going to move mostly because of sharp money.
• 7:14
  So tells. US smart money has hit the
• 7:15
  Yankees. Here now.
• 7:16
  I'm going to bank on the Yankees offense.
• 7:18
  They're hitting 46 homers, already 176.
• 7:21
  Runs scored. Houston's only hit 40 homers and
• 7:23
  154. Runs scored.
• 7:25
  Yankees have been great at home. 12:00 and 5:00 at.
• 7:27
  Home, Houston is just. 5:00 and 11:00 on the road.
• 7:30
  Yankees have a big. Advantage in the bullpen as
• 7:32
  well. They have the best.
• 7:34
  ERA of. Of any bullpen in baseball,
• 7:36
  2.22, Houston is 20th. 4.55. Yankees are plus. 49 and run
• 7:41
  differential Astros are -27. Little cherry on top.
• 7:45
  Nothing Amazing, you know, not going.
• 7:47
  To bet a game only because of a. Number and official Unless it's
• 7:49
  Scott Foster, but Brian o'nora the.
• 7:52
  Home play dump tonight. At Yankee Stadium is. 55.
• 7:55
  Percent to the home team. Historically, he's been a pretty
• 7:57
  good home play dump for the home team.
• 7:59
  And also look at these two. Pictures Home Rd.
• 8:01
  Splits Rodon at home 1.3. 8 ERA this year.
• 8:06
  Erigetti on the road. 14.8. Five.
• 8:09
  So I probably should have been betting.
• 8:10
  Against Houston. More often this year, but if.
• 8:13
  You're giving me Yankees good team at.
• 8:14
  Home good sharp line move, hopefully a big edge.
• 8:17
  There on the on the mound. I'm going to go Yankees here.
• 8:19
  Also Yankees would be. A non division favorite, so lack
• 8:22
  of familiarity benefiting the better team, but I got the
• 8:24
  Yankees. Shop round.
• 8:26
  I got New York. At -150.
• 8:29
  Keep on cruising. This is an expensive price, but
• 8:32
  I'm going to take a shot on it. And again, always remember bet
• 8:34
  Tris not bet to win. I'm.
• 8:35
  Going to go. With Tampa Bay here.
• 8:37
  Tonight. Now it is a big number.
• 8:39
  Hope we can shop around and get a better price.
• 8:41
  But I've seen a lot of steam, and I feel like we should not
• 8:44
  only fade Houston, but fade the Chicago White Sox more often so.
• 8:47
  Tampa Bay at home against. Chicago Tampa Bay actually
• 8:49
  opened this game. Around -220 - 2. 30 Now I'm
• 8:53
  seeing Tampa. Like -240 -, 250.
• 8:56
  So shop around, have multiple outs.
• 8:58
  I was able to get Tampa Bay at minus. 240 I know it's a.
• 9:02
  Big price? But think of this as.
• 9:04
  Just kind of a. Little bite at the apple.
• 9:06
  Like if we can. Win this one with Tampa.
• 9:07
  We're risking. One unit.
• 9:08
  If they lose, we're going to lose the unit like any other
• 9:10
  bet. But if we.
• 9:11
  Win which? Is why it's important.
• 9:13
  Bet to risk? Which, I'll give you a perfect
• 9:15
  example, the Orioles. Yesterday, the Orioles screwed
• 9:17
  us. I don't know.
• 9:18
  I understand how you get blanked.
• 9:20
  Against the, against the Nats yesterday, but anyway.
• 9:24
  Whole point being, if you bet. Baltimore.
• 9:26
  Bet to win I. Remember saying this on
• 9:27
  yesterday's? Pod do not bet them to win.
• 9:31
  In terms? Of bet, transfers bet to win.
• 9:32
  Because you lay 220, they lose. You lose 2.2 units.
• 9:36
  They lost the. Game which stinks.
• 9:38
  But because we bet to risk. We only lost one unit like any
• 9:40
  other bet, so same. Thing goes for today, looking at
• 9:45
  Tampa here tonight, I'm. Going to risk my -240.
• 9:48
  I'm going to try to get a little less than 1/2 unit back here,
• 9:51
  but the pitching matchup doesn't.
• 9:53
  Hugely favor Tampa like. Flexin minus or he's one and
• 9:57
  three 4.8. 5 ERA Savalli 2 and two 6.14 ERA But here's why I'm
• 10:03
  going to bank on the Rays tonight.
• 10:04
  One is much better. Offense.
• 10:06
  They're hitting 247 versus 2O8 for the White Sox and if you
• 10:11
  look at run scored. Tampa Bay has scored 100.
• 10:14
  And 53 runs this year, Only one O.
• 10:16
  Three for the White Sox, Tampa also.
• 10:18
  Is a very streaky team. They can rip off, you know, ten
• 10:21
  wins in a row. They've won five straight so
• 10:23
  they kind of had a tough start here, but they've played better
• 10:25
  as of late Home Rd. Splits Tampa's 13.
• 10:27
  And nine at home. Cub.
• 10:29
  The White Sox. Only three and 16.
• 10:31
  On the road. And here's where it gets even.
• 10:33
  Better. I have a system called fade CHW.
• 10:36
  So if you've been. Betting 100.
• 10:38
  Bucks Or basically, if you've been, excuse me, betting against
• 10:40
  the White Sox every game this year, you're. 28 and eight. 78%.
• 10:44
  That is a 20% ROI. So if you'd put 100 bucks
• 10:48
  against the White Sox every game?
• 10:50
  You're up nearly $900. This year.
• 10:52
  So it's a bet against the White Sox.
• 10:54
  But I know the. System match here.
• 10:56
  Big home favorites -200. Or more they are. 41 and 14.
• 11:01
  75%. With a six.
• 11:03
  Percent ROI. That's pretty good because if
• 11:05
  you're laying 200 again, you got to win at a really high rate in
• 11:08
  order to overcome the juice. But that would match with Tampa
• 11:10
  Bay here. And you also have.
• 11:13
  Again, home Rd. splits, no non division.
• 11:16
  Favor. That's what I want to mention.
• 11:17
  Lack of familiarity, hopefully benefiting the better team.
• 11:20
  So even though it's a big number.
• 11:22
  Shop around, try to. Find a 240 if you.
• 11:24
  Can I got Tampa -2? 40 Again, make sure you bet to.
• 11:27
  Risk. Not win.
• 11:29
  Last by the night here in Major League Baseball.
• 11:31
  I'm going with Los Gigantes. Give me the G men here.
• 11:34
  Guys, the Giants are on the road at Colorado.
• 11:37
  You saw the Giants blank. Colorado 5, Nothing yesterday,
• 11:40
  Now if you look. At the.
• 11:41
  Pitching match up for. Tonight we have Jordan Hicks.
• 11:44
  Going for San Fran? He's been, Really.
• 11:46
  Good two and one with A1. .89 ERA He's giving up two earned
• 11:49
  runs or less in every single start.
• 11:51
  This year. He'll be opposed by.
• 11:53
  Peter Lambert. Who's 2:00 and 1:00?
• 11:55
  5.66 ERA and he's. Expected to be the opener.
• 11:58
  Here, so he may not even go more than an inning or two.
• 12:01
  And that's important because Colorado's.
• 12:02
  Bullpen is really. Taxed here.
• 12:04
  They're bad to begin. With but last night.
• 12:06
  In the five nothing win for San Fran.
• 12:08
  Dakota Hudson. Only went through 3.2 innings.
• 12:11
  Harrison, who got the win for San?
• 12:13
  Fran he went. 7 innings? So Harrison, Really.
• 12:16
  Helped the bullpen of San Fran Hudson.
• 12:18
  Really hurt the bullpen of Colorado San.
• 12:20
  Fran's rested. Ready.
• 12:21
  To go Colorado was taxed and had to pitch a lot out of the pen
• 12:24
  yesterday. I'm going to bake on a slight
• 12:26
  advantage offensively. For San Fran, they're hitting
• 12:28
  two. 38 versus 2. 32. For for Colorado.
• 12:32
  They scored 137 runs versus 123 runs and.
• 12:35
  We do have a system match here. Rd. favorites.
• 12:37
  Very simple, but Rd. favorites in Major League Baseball this
• 12:40
  year. Are one O 8 and 7260.
• 12:42
  Percent with a six. Percent ROI if you'd.
• 12:45
  Put 100 bucks on every Rd. favorite you're up.
• 12:47
  Almost $1000. This year, And by the way, I
• 12:50
  didn't even really mention the line move with San Fran.
• 12:52
  I should have started off of that.
• 12:54
  They open as low. As like -1. 60 -, 160.
• 12:57
  Five Now they're like. -175, so we do have about $0.10 of steam
• 13:01
  in favor of San Francisco. I was able to get San Fran at
• 13:05
  -170. So San Fran, the Yankees and
• 13:09
  Tampa Bay. Let's try to get two out of
• 13:10
  three of those. Now.
• 13:13
  Let's go to the playoffs, because who's?
• 13:14
  Enjoying NBA and NHL? Postseason.
• 13:17
  I know I am. But let's go to the NHL 'cause
• 13:20
  it was a great. Night in the NHL last night.
• 13:22
  With the ABS coming through as a plus.
• 13:24
  Money dog. Now we.
• 13:25
  Got two games tonight. A back-to-back and I get to
• 13:28
  start with. The Bruins?
• 13:30
  Whoa. Oh, oh, oh oh.
• 13:35
  Bruins at Florida. Game 2 Even though the bees.
• 13:38
  Killed are under 5 and a. Half they were too good, scored
• 13:41
  too many goals. Won five to one.
• 13:43
  They are up. One O in the series, and I'd
• 13:45
  looked at the series price. It's now -110 both.
• 13:47
  Sides and I was intrigued by taking Boston.
• 13:50
  But for tonight, Florida Panthers are around a -, 165
• 13:55
  favorite Bruins are around. Plus 140 and you know who.
• 13:59
  I'm going with. Going with the bees.
• 14:01
  I'm taking a shot on the Bruins tonight.
• 14:03
  I'll give. You a couple reasons why This is
• 14:05
  a good value play to take Boston, but not just the value
• 14:07
  play. The market's moving toward the
• 14:10
  Bruins here now. You had this game.
• 14:12
  It opened with Florida around. -175, now they're down to -1.
• 14:17
  65. Bruins open.
• 14:19
  Around, you know, plus one. 50 Now they're down.
• 14:22
  To plus 140. So the line is moving toward
• 14:25
  Boston. They have a pretty good bet
• 14:26
  split. They're getting 53.
• 14:28
  Percent of bets but. 63. Percent of the money.
• 14:31
  So a little bit low bets, higher dollars.
• 14:33
  Now, not only is the line moving a little bit toward Boston, but
• 14:36
  really my main reason for taking the Bruins.
• 14:38
  I guess there's a couple reasons the.
• 14:39
  First one is goaltending. Now the greatest.
• 14:42
  Goaltending performance I've ever seen in my life.
• 14:44
  I just turned 37 years. Old 2011 when I was AI.
• 14:49
  Don't know what was I I was. 2021 years old, 22 I don't.
• 14:53
  Even know. Anyway, I can't do math.
• 14:55
  I probably screwed that up. I remember I was living in
• 14:56
  Allston with my buddies. We had just moved to Boston.
• 15:00
  But it was Tim Thomas stood on his head, Brought the Bruins.
• 15:04
  The only cup in my lifetime and I don't want to jinx it, but
• 15:07
  I'm. Getting Tim Thomas vibes.
• 15:09
  From Jeremy Swayman, Swayman. Is five and two.
• 15:11
  In the post Season one point. 4 Two goals against. 950.
• 15:15
  Five save percentage if you look at his.
• 15:17
  Opposing goalie Bobrovsky. Four and two winning record, but
• 15:21
  A goals. Against of three save
• 15:22
  percentage. Of 890 and.
• 15:24
  I'm also looking at. Not just an advantage.
• 15:26
  Of goaltending wise, but the Bruins are five and O against
• 15:29
  the Florida Panthers. So far this year they went four
• 15:32
  and O in the regular. Season, They won game 1/5 to one
• 15:36
  and not only. Do we have the?
• 15:38
  Goaltending advantage? And the Bruins are hot right
• 15:40
  now. But there's.
• 15:40
  Some like Mojo and like Team of Destiny.
• 15:43
  Signs for Boston right now. One is Brandon Carlo.
• 15:46
  If you don't know this, Brandon Carlo.
• 15:48
  Shut down. Defenseman for Boston.
• 15:50
  He had his son. His son was born prior to Game
• 15:53
  one. And he stayed to see his son be.
• 15:57
  Born with his wife and then he took a a jet down to Florida.
• 16:01
  Barely made the game. Ends up scoring a goal and the
• 16:03
  Bruins do this thing where if they win a post season game,
• 16:06
  they have a jacket they give to the player of the game, the
• 16:08
  player of the. Game gets the puck.
• 16:09
  And puts it in this like briefcase and need 4 pucks to
• 16:12
  win a series. So you see, teams do this.
• 16:15
  It's kind of camaraderie. It's kind of way to bring the
• 16:17
  team together, but you have a baby.
• 16:20
  You barely make the game. You score a goal.
• 16:22
  That's Team of Destiny. Stuff Also Patrick Maroon.
• 16:24
  Bringing an edge to Boston? Jeremy Swayman Usually when you
• 16:28
  see the the national anthem before the game, you know guys
• 16:31
  are nervous, they're stone faced.
• 16:33
  Swayman's like smiling like a maniacal, like joker smile.
• 16:36
  So Swayman's got the. Mojo right now and Jim
• 16:38
  Montgomery is pushing the right buttons in terms of.
• 16:42
  Kind of. His additions to the lineup put
• 16:44
  in Patrick Brown, He won some face offs, put in Derek
• 16:46
  Forebort. Defensively he played well, so.
• 16:49
  If Florida wins this. Game Hey, we'll tip our cap to
• 16:52
  Florida, but the line is moving to Boston.
• 16:54
  Boston's playing. Really.
• 16:55
  Well, right now. And to put.
• 16:57
  The cherry on top. Juice Reel The Juice Reel app
• 17:01
  Who I told you to. Sign up for.
• 17:03
  You just clicking the bio in the description of the pod each day
• 17:06
  'cause I'll put it right in there.
• 17:07
  To make it easy on you. But Juice Reel.
• 17:10
  Who has the robo? Jackson AI bot Who?
• 17:14
  Went two and O yesterday actually Robo Jackson.
• 17:16
  At Celtics minus. 12 I'm kicking myself for not taking that one I
• 17:18
  was leaning over to. I should have played that, but
• 17:21
  today's AI driven robo Jackson suggested bet is the Boston
• 17:26
  Bruins plus 140. Five So.
• 17:29
  We have a Juice Reel Robo Jackson recommendation.
• 17:31
  Lion's moving to Boston a little bit.
• 17:33
  Good bet. Split here.
• 17:35
  Good. Goaltending Bruins are five and
• 17:37
  O against Florida. That sounds good to me.
• 17:38
  Guys, wouldn't it be nice if we could hit?
• 17:40
  A + 140. Five.
• 17:41
  That'll be a big one here, but I'm going to.
• 17:43
  Root like crazy. For the Boston.
• 17:45
  Bruins tonight? Not.
• 17:46
  Only as a fan, but as a sports better.
• 17:48
  So let's get all of our good mojo together.
• 17:51
  Let's go, bees. Plus 145.
• 17:54
  Second bet of the night, It's going to be a late night for
• 17:56
  your boy, 10:00. Game one, Edmonton and.
• 17:59
  Vancouver, I'm going with Edmonton Oilers.
• 18:02
  Let's go oil. I'm sweating McDavid tonight
• 18:05
  Edmonton Oilers. Open this game around -130.
• 18:09
  They now been bet up to around -140, so about $0.10 of Steam in
• 18:12
  favor of Edmonton. Now they're getting 74% of bets,
• 18:16
  82% of dollars, So not. Only do we.
• 18:18
  Have the steam move. In favor of Edmonton, but also
• 18:21
  we got a little bit of low bets, higher dollars, bet split.
• 18:24
  And I'm going to put some stock in the Oilers in a rest versus
• 18:26
  tired. Advantage because the Oilers.
• 18:28
  If you remember they. Dispatched Who was it?
• 18:32
  The Kings. And they won that.
• 18:34
  Series their. Last game was May 1st.
• 18:37
  So they've been off for what, 6-7 days at this?
• 18:40
  Point so rested. Ready to go if you look at the
• 18:44
  Vancouver. Canucks.
• 18:45
  They last played on May 3rd, so. And who was that?
• 18:51
  The Predators? Or maybe I?
• 18:52
  Got that mixed up it was. Flipped the other way.
• 18:54
  But anyway, their last game was the. 3rd So we do have a two day
• 18:56
  rest advantage in favor of. Edmonton, if you look at.
• 19:00
  Offensively, Edmonton is in a good spot here, averaging 3.6
• 19:04
  goals per game now. I'm not going to.
• 19:06
  Say that Vancouver is like a low scoring team.
• 19:09
  Vancouver 3.4 goals. Per game but.
• 19:11
  Edmonton, obviously with McDavid, Who is your favorite
• 19:13
  for the Conn Smythe A? Little bit of vans there
• 19:16
  offensively power play 26% versus 23% favor of Edmonton.
• 19:21
  And then also I'm going to put a couple more angles here to like.
• 19:24
  The Edmonton Oilers tonight. One is goaltending.
• 19:26
  Now if you look at the stats. It's going to be most likely
• 19:29
  Stewart. Skinner for Edmonton.
• 19:31
  Four and one 2.59 goals against 9/10 save percentage for
• 19:34
  Edmonton. He's likely to go up.
• 19:36
  Against sill solos silos, I don't even know how to pronounce
• 19:41
  his kids name. Now his His numbers are pretty
• 19:43
  good. In the post Season 2 and. 11.7 O
• 19:46
  goals against 938 save percentage, so that's pretty
• 19:49
  good. I'm not going to.
• 19:50
  And I'm not going to, you know, call this kid out for being bad.
• 19:53
  But my one thing I'm I would kind of like in terms of an
• 19:55
  advantage. Would be that he's only 23 years
• 19:58
  old. And he was a sixth round pick.
• 20:00
  And he's the third goalie. Remember, they had Thatcher.
• 20:03
  Demko and DE Smith. Now they're on to sea loaves.
• 20:06
  I don't. Even know how to?
• 20:06
  Pronounce his name. But third string goalie against
• 20:09
  arguably the best offense? Maybe not even arguably.
• 20:12
  Best offense in the NHL with Edmonton?
• 20:14
  I think it's an advantage here for the Oilers.
• 20:16
  Then also I'm going to put. Some stock into.
• 20:19
  Experience because the Oilers made the second round of the.
• 20:22
  Post season last year, Vancouver didn't even.
• 20:24
  Make the post season. And to put a little cherry on
• 20:26
  top of Edmonton. I told you that juice.
• 20:29
  Reel our guy Mr. Robo Jackson, he puts out.
• 20:32
  Two recommended bets each. Day.
• 20:34
  His first one was Bruins plus 145.
• 20:36
  His second one. Was Edmonton Edmonton?
• 20:39
  Oilers -1. 38 So we're rocking with the juice reel plays and
• 20:44
  not they're not just blind juice reel plays.
• 20:46
  The market and kind of the handicap, the way I approach it
• 20:49
  is right there with them. So I'm.
• 20:50
  Going Edmonton? Shop around, Try to get a -,
• 20:53
  130. Eight if not around. -140 but.
• 20:56
  Let's go bees and let's go oil. Now, last bet of the night.
• 21:00
  Let's look toward a. Big match up here in the NBA
• 21:03
  this is. Game two of Pacers.
• 21:04
  In the Knicks. We've seen a little bit of.
• 21:07
  Movement toward the Knicks they open.
• 21:09
  Some shops are -4 1/2 up to five.
• 21:13
  Yeah, pretty much hanging around 5:00 at this point, but I'm
• 21:16
  going to look toward the total here now I may.
• 21:18
  Surprise you with this bet, because if you look at the.
• 21:20
  Market the line has. Dipped a little bit, this total
• 21:23
  opened at. Around 2:21 it's now down.
• 21:26
  To 218 1/2. So just on the very surface,
• 21:30
  looks like some smart money hit that.
• 21:31
  Under under 221, maybe under 220 and a half 2/22/19 and a half
• 21:36
  219 but it's. Falling all the way.
• 21:39
  To 218 1/2. So think of it this way.
• 21:41
  If you're betting the. Under yes.
• 21:42
  You're with that sharp. Early move, but you're playing
• 21:45
  the worst of it. Like if this game lands 220 the
• 21:48
  early. Wise guys who got.
• 21:49
  Under 220 and half 221 they cash.
• 21:52
  If you got a late under 218 and half and it lands 220 you lose
• 21:55
  so. What I'm going to do guys, is
• 21:57
  I'm going to. Buy low and go over.
• 21:58
  Tonight Pacers Knicks over 218 1/2 and.
• 22:02
  I'm going to make the case for it.
• 22:03
  I'm going to make the case that this.
• 22:04
  Isn't a sharp bet, but a buy low.
• 22:06
  Value bet. So #1 this line has fallen quite
• 22:10
  a bit, so we're buying low. At a deflated price.
• 22:13
  Secondly. Game one we did have a 121 to
• 22:16
  117 Game 2. 138 points scored. We do have.
• 22:19
  Three over refs tonight. Davis, Tiven and Derosa in.
• 22:23
  Particular derosa and tiven. Are around. 5254.
• 22:27
  Percent to the over. So if we get a lot of.
• 22:29
  Fouls. And then really, it's a play on
• 22:31
  the. Pacers.
• 22:32
  The Pacers were second. In the league.
• 22:34
  In pace. Fastest team their second in
• 22:37
  offensive efficiency and their 24th.
• 22:39
  Defensive efficiency. And if you look in the
• 22:42
  postseason? The Pacers are five and two to
• 22:44
  the over, and this is a value play because I was looking up in
• 22:47
  my database. When the total is 220 or less.
• 22:52
  The Pacers. Over is 3 and one.
• 22:54
  Now it's kind of interesting is that.
• 22:55
  All of those. Games came in the.
• 22:57
  Postseason there was. Not and I had to double check
• 23:00
  this and I think I'm right. There wasn't a single game in
• 23:03
  the regular season. Where the Pacers had a total of
• 23:05
  220 or less, remember they had totals of 23240.
• 23:09
  I think they. Had a 250.
• 23:10
  So this is kind of a value. Play on a really good offensive
• 23:14
  team, a bad defensive team, A. Dog who can score.
• 23:18
  Maybe you get overtime. Maybe you get a tight game late
• 23:20
  with some fouling. So I'm.
• 23:22
  Going to buy low. And take this over 218 and a.
• 23:24
  Half and I'm It's not just me. I'm going with the over. 218.
• 23:28
  And a half because. Rhythm is recommending.
• 23:30
  We go over 218 1/2 because. Rhythm is projecting a final
• 23:35
  total or final score combined of two. 20.2.
• 23:39
  So if we're going over 218 1/2 rhythms, got a 2?
• 23:42
  20.2 even if you. Break that down to.
• 23:45
  Just a 220 you round down to 20 will cash our over.
• 23:49
  So I'm. Going to go over this one.
• 23:50
  Let's see if. We can get an.
• 23:52
  Overplay here. Rhythm again.
• 23:53
  Projecting A220. We're going, we're buying.
• 23:55
  Low over 218 and a. Half.
• 23:57
  So I'm on. Over 218 1/2.
• 23:59
  Pacers and Knicks. That about does it for episode.
• 24:03
  39 of the all. Systems Go Sports Betting
• 24:05
  Podcast, but Reminder. I need your help to grow this
• 24:09
  podcast and grow it organically. So #1 if you're listening to my
• 24:13
  voice right now, thank. You it means a lot to me that
• 24:15
  you take the time. Out of your day.
• 24:16
  I know we all have busy lives, but.
• 24:18
  But you take the time out of your day to listen to the.
• 24:20
  Pod to pull up a chair to the virtual bar.
• 24:23
  I don't know to. Grab a drink.
• 24:24
  And listen to some sharp breakdowns.
• 24:26
  Thank you, Secondly. Can you do me a favor?
• 24:29
  Can you give this podcast a five star review if you're listening?
• 24:33
  On Amazon, not Amazon. Sorry if you're listening on
• 24:36
  Spotify. Or iTunes.
• 24:38
  There should be an opportunity there for you to follow the
• 24:40
  pods, so you're. Alerted when it drops, but then
• 24:43
  also. To give it a five star review
• 24:44
  now that is really helpful because it helps us to rise up.
• 24:48
  The charts. And gain more credibility if
• 24:50
  you. Also want to recommend this pod
• 24:51
  to a friend, someone who you know.
• 24:53
  Who likes to bet? On sports.
• 24:54
  Maybe wants a different take a data-driven.
• 24:56
  Take not an opinion. Based take I'd really appreciate
• 24:58
  that as well, but give this pod five stars, it would really,
• 25:01
  really mean a lot to me. Secondly, if you want.
• 25:03
  To learn more. About data-driven sports betting
• 25:06
  and guess what? I recommend that you go to.
• 25:08
  Amazon.com. And type in the.
• 25:10
  Everything Guide to sports betting.
• 25:12
  That's my book. My baby, it's got.
• 25:14
  Everything I've learned in the industry, how lines are set, how
• 25:16
  and. Why they move?
• 25:17
  How to read line movement? How to locate?
• 25:18
  Sharp action How to? Place a bet in.
• 25:20
  Person or online, How to shop for the best line?
• 25:22
  How to set? Up a bankroll management plan.
• 25:24
  It's all included in my book The Everything Guide to Sports
• 25:27
  Betting. So pick up A.
• 25:27
  Copy, it's only 20. Bucks whether you want to learn
• 25:30
  more about betting, whether you want to just support the team or
• 25:33
  gift it to that buddy of yours or family member.
• 25:35
  Who loves? Betting on sports but maybe
• 25:37
  doesn't have a bankroll management plan and parlays
• 25:39
  everything. It would mean a lot if you
• 25:41
  wanted to pick up a copy or gift it to a friend.
• 25:44
  And if you already have, thank you.
• 25:45
  It really means a lot to me. So that being said.
• 25:48
  Whether I. See you at the Borgata in
• 25:50
  Atlantic City Twin. River in Rhode Island.
• 25:52
  The Brooklyn New. Hampshire Foxwoods or Mohegan
• 25:54
  Sun down in Connecticut. At the.
• 25:56
  Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park.
• 25:58
  Casino or MGM Springfield? And my neck of the woods.
• 26:01
  In Massachusetts, we're out in the desert where the true
• 26:03
  grinders get down. Where Billy?
• 26:04
  Walters sends his number runners.
• 26:06
  Where lowest use possible. 'S found the South point or
• 26:08
  sweating. Sharp can train plays at Circa,
• 26:11
  jumping in the stadium swim pool when Miles Wood cashes in
• 26:14
  overtime, wherever it may be. You're going to walk up to me.
• 26:16
  You're going to show me a Cubs ticket.
• 26:18
  Thank you, Michael Bush. A Philly's ticket, an OK C Money
• 26:21
  line and. Series.
• 26:23
  Bet. And of course.
• 26:24
  The play of the night, the ABS, getting it done in overtime as a
• 26:27
  plus money dog. And guess what?
• 26:28
  First one's on me, next one's on you.
• 26:30
  We're going to post about the book so that sharp conturian
• 26:32
  plays all night long. So wish you the best of luck,
• 26:35
  everyone. Of course, my parting words Stay
• 26:38
  sharp, stay contrarian. Bet against the.
• 26:40
  Public Place yourself on the side of the house.
• 26:41
  Always be with. The smart money Never against
• 26:44
  it. Will Smart Money Win Every Time?
• 26:45
  Of course not sports. Betting is hard.
• 26:47
  We're trying to. Predict the unpredictable.
• 26:49
  But if we can. Consistently stay.
• 26:51
  True to our model, against the public, with the House, with the
• 26:54
  pros flat bet, avoid parlays and get some closing line value.
• 26:57
  If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors,
• 27:00
  so. Enjoy the sweats tonight, guys.
• 27:01
  Let's have a big Wednesday. See if we.
• 27:03
  Can get a winning streak going. After a good night last night.
• 27:06
  And and guess what? We're going to grind our way,
• 27:09
  hopefully to a winner. So let's go bees.
• 27:12
  Whoa, oh oh. I'll see you guys.
• 27:17
  Tomorrow for episode. 40 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
• 27:20
  Podcast Good luck.