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Which of these teams is a real College Football Playoff contender in 2026? · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: On today's show, we're previewing my power rated teams number
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  Speaker 1: twenty through number sixteen. So that's gonna be BYU Utah, Iowa,
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  Speaker 1: Texas Tech, and Washington for the twenty twenty six college
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  Speaker 1: football season. Welcome in. This is Winning Cures Everything. It's
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  Speaker 1: a college football podcast. I'm your host, Gary Seekers at
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  Speaker 1: Gary WCE on all the different socials. Today we are
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  Speaker 1: discussing the teams that I have power rated number twenty
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  Speaker 1: through number sixteen for the twenty twenty six college football season. Reminder,
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  Speaker 1: we're doing at least a show a week until late
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  Speaker 1: July or early August. Then we're gonna ramp things up.
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  Speaker 1: We're gonna have more content, etc. So make sure that
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  Speaker 1: you subscribe, like the video, and of course jump in
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  Speaker 1: the comments with your thoughts on all of these different teams.
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  Speaker 1: All right, let's not waste time. Let's kick this thing off.
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  Speaker 1: Our number twenty power rated team for twenty twenty six
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  Speaker 1: is the BYU Cougars. And this is a big twelve
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  Speaker 1: team that I guess you could say I'm fascinated by
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  Speaker 1: heading into t twenty twenty six, not for the reasons
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  Speaker 1: that people said even just a couple of years ago.
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  Speaker 1: Like BYU is not sneaking up on anybody anymore. Kaline
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  Speaker 1: Sataki is going into year eleven in provo, I mean
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  Speaker 1: eleven years. It's a long time. There was obviously the
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  Speaker 1: flirtation with Penn State. All that crumbled cookies. Everybody knows
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  Speaker 1: the deal if you were following this offseason. This program
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  Speaker 1: has stacked back to back elite seasons eleven and two
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  Speaker 1: and twenty twenty four, then twelve and two. Last year
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  Speaker 1: had a big twelve championship game appearance just outside the playoff.
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  Speaker 1: That's not a fluke. This is a legit program. Now,
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  Speaker 1: there is some important context here, right Both losses in
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty five came to Texas Tag. Both of them
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  Speaker 1: were ugly. You can't hand wave that away. Right. BYU
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  Speaker 1: went four to zero in one score games, which means
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  Speaker 1: there was probably a little fortune backed into that record.
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  Speaker 1: The analytics were not great. But here's the part that matters,
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  Speaker 1: you know the most going forward. This team does know
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  Speaker 1: how to win ball games. They did all of that
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  Speaker 1: last year with the freshman quarterback who didn't even show
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  Speaker 1: up to campus until June. From what I understand, bar
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  Speaker 1: Backmeyer walked in late won the job in camp. He
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  Speaker 1: started every game, threw for over three thousand yards, completed
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  Speaker 1: sixty five percent of his passes, and of course got
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  Speaker 1: to the Big twelve title games. That's a big, big
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  Speaker 1: development because they didn't know what they were gonna do
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  Speaker 1: when Jake ritz left left and the team is just
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  Speaker 1: so strong. There's such a good identity, such a good team.
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  Speaker 1: And speaking of identity, like, let's talk about what their
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  Speaker 1: identity is. They want to be physical, they want to
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  Speaker 1: run the football, they use their tight ends, they stay
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  Speaker 1: on schedule, and defensively, they want to be aggressive right,
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  Speaker 1: multiple odd fronts, genuinely annoying the game plan for It's not,
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  Speaker 1: you know, a scrappy underdog team. It's really a legitimate
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  Speaker 1: Big twelve contender. Does that mean national championship contender? No,
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  Speaker 1: not necessarily, But that doesn't mean that they're not successful
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  Speaker 1: on offense. The two pieces that matter most are coming
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  Speaker 1: back backmeer returns and then of course you've got LJ.
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  Speaker 1: Martin at running back. Martin ran for over thirteen hundred yards.
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  Speaker 1: He won Big twelve Offensive Player of the Year. Big guy, Like,
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  Speaker 1: that's a back that you can build around. When you
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  Speaker 1: got a quarterback that's already playing at that level as
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  Speaker 1: a freshman and a running back who can carry the
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  Speaker 1: offense on those days. Your floor is pretty high. Right
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  Speaker 1: BYU returns five starters on offense, seven on defense. It's
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  Speaker 1: not a total rebuild. The portal ads are solid, right.
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  Speaker 1: Cad Ulave from cal at linebacker, you got Kyler Casper
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  Speaker 1: from Oregon at receiver, Walker Lyons from USC at tight end,
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  Speaker 1: Packy Fino Fino from Washington on the offensive line, and
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  Speaker 1: then of course Javin Williams Mississippi State at corner. That's
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  Speaker 1: a pretty good portal haul that lets you know that
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  Speaker 1: the program knows that this is a pretty important season.
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  Speaker 1: You're not shopping for depth, You're you're pulling guys in
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  Speaker 1: for impact. They do lose some real pieces, though, Chase
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  Speaker 1: Roberts gone from the receiver room. That's a huge deal.
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  Speaker 1: You got a bunch of other guys as well, Tanner Wall, Jack,
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  Speaker 1: Kelly will Ferrin, Sam Vander Harr. They're all out. He's
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  Speaker 1: the punter. Arguably, the biggest losses are not even the players, right.
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  Speaker 1: Jay Hill, of course, the defensive coordinator, leaving for Michigan,
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  Speaker 1: along with Kyle Whittingham, Gennaro Guildford, who was the defensive
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  Speaker 1: passing game architect. He's also gone to Ann Arbor, and
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  Speaker 1: I mean that's this is a pretty big hit because
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  Speaker 1: they've been there for a while. You can preach scheme
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  Speaker 1: continuity all you want, but when the guys that are
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  Speaker 1: teaching the scheme and calling the players are gone, there's
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  Speaker 1: always some kind of a risk there. Right, Kelly Papinga
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  Speaker 1: takes over as DC, and obviously the cover is not empty.
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  Speaker 1: They got a lot of returning guys. He knows what
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  Speaker 1: he's got there, a lot of guys up front. You
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  Speaker 1: got Satuala back at safety, Wholave gives them athleticism at linebacker.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, the pieces are here, but they got to prove.
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  Speaker 1: I think that the system is bigger than Jay Hill.
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  Speaker 1: I think that's the question. Strengths are legitimate, but black
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  Speaker 1: Myron Martin. I mean, I think that's the most stable
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  Speaker 1: quarterback running back combination in the conference. When you can
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  Speaker 1: run the ball, you keep your quarterback comfortable, use your
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  Speaker 1: tight ends of void thirty longs. That's how you're gonna
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  Speaker 1: win games in the Big twelve. The front seven still
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  Speaker 1: has some real juice with Tonavasa anchoring at the overall
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  Speaker 1: program stability under Sataki, I don't think should be underrated
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  Speaker 1: right now. There are red flags here right Replacing j
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  Speaker 1: Hill is a pretty big deal. Defense was a major
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  Speaker 1: reason why by you went twelve and two, and you know,
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  Speaker 1: you don't just slide in a new coordinator with without
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  Speaker 1: some kind of an adjustment. The secondary is a little
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  Speaker 1: bit concerning, especially losing Guilford and then they're special teams.
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  Speaker 1: They lose the kicker of the punter and the long snapper,
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  Speaker 1: so that whole thing that's big, especially for a team
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  Speaker 1: that went four to zero and one score games last year.
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  Speaker 1: So the math on that can flip pretty quick if
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  Speaker 1: you don't get actual legitimate guys there. As far as
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  Speaker 1: the schedule, which you can see right here on the screen,
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  Speaker 1: this is where things get kind of spicy. They should
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  Speaker 1: open up three and zero. You know, Utah Tech, Arizona,
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  Speaker 1: Colorado State, Arizona being at home is big Arizona. It's
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  Speaker 1: not like they couldn't lose to Arizona. I mean that
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  Speaker 1: was a close game last year, but that one being
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  Speaker 1: at home, Arizona falling off a little bit this season,
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  Speaker 1: I think, uh, they should be able to handle business
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  Speaker 1: there and then and then you start getting land mines
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  Speaker 1: because your bye week is in Week four. First real
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  Speaker 1: test is going to be at TCUH. My projection has
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  Speaker 1: got BYU with a fifty four to fifty five percent
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  Speaker 1: chance to win that game, basically a coin flip on
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  Speaker 1: the road if BYU wants to prove it's a contender. Again,
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: that's a big one. You got Iowa stayed at home.
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  Speaker 1: I don't expect Iowa State to be great this season,
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  Speaker 1: so you should be able to handle that one. But
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  Speaker 1: then you get Notre Dame coming to Provo. That's one
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  Speaker 1: of the biggest home games in years and BYU sitting
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  Speaker 1: at thirty two percent or no. Twenty three percent win probability.
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  Speaker 1: That's not that's not deal. You know, it is a
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  Speaker 1: huge opportunity, but I do think it is gonna take
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  Speaker 1: something out of you, right and after that game, they
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  Speaker 1: have to travel all the way to Orlando to take
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  Speaker 1: on UCF, who I don't expect to be great. But
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  Speaker 1: that's a long trip, emotional hangover potential. UCF is coming
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  Speaker 1: off of a bye there, that's a nasty situational spot.
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  Speaker 1: It looks like a trap game because you got Arizona State. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: Arizona State back at home the next week, and then
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  Speaker 1: of course you've got the Holy War on the road
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  Speaker 1: at Utah, where BYU is I mean, I've got them
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  Speaker 1: at a forty percent chance to win that game, so
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  Speaker 1: you know, big twelve title implications for both sides that
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  Speaker 1: could swing everything. By you, I've got them favored in
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  Speaker 1: ten games. Notre Dame is a monster Utah that's obviously
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  Speaker 1: a war every single time. TCU is tricky on the road,
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  Speaker 1: you know, and then at the end of the season,
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  Speaker 1: you got to go to Kansas, you play Cincinnati and
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  Speaker 1: Baylor at home, Like Arizona State's always tough, like there's
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  Speaker 1: there's potential land mines here, it's managed, it's not clean
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: the range on wins like, let's let's go ceiling floor here.
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  Speaker 1: The ceiling I think is eleven and one, Like Bachmeyer
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  Speaker 1: takes a sophomore leap, defense holds, you know, without Jay Hill,
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  Speaker 1: and the close games keep breaking the right way, like
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  Speaker 1: that's a program mentality thing. I think they can handle that.
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  Speaker 1: The floor seven and five, like, not because they lack talent,
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  Speaker 1: but because if the pass defense regresses, the kicking game
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  Speaker 1: gets a little shaky. Those close game margins flip. I
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  Speaker 1: mean the schedule could absolutely exploit that. I think the
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  Speaker 1: most likely record here is nine to three. I don't
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  Speaker 1: think last year's team, based on all the stats, et cetera,
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  Speaker 1: I don't think they were really in eleven and one team, right,
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  Speaker 1: and that's what they were in the regular season, which
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  Speaker 1: there's a reason why their win total is eight and
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  Speaker 1: a half. Here. I lean to the over, but obviously
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: be careful about the price, like if you can get
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: it near even money or so, like if you can
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: get it plus money. Absolutely, if the line gets juiced up,
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  Speaker 1: it loses a lot of the reason why you would
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  Speaker 1: take it. Like I like Bachmeier, I like Martin, I
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  Speaker 1: trust the Taki. I'm not gonna pay a heavy tax
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  Speaker 1: on a team that's got coordinator turnover and specialist questions.
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  Speaker 1: You know, multiple dangerous road spots all that. So make
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  Speaker 1: sure that you get this at the right number. But
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  Speaker 1: I would lean over if you find a flat eight,
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: that's even better. That gives you a game to work with.
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  Speaker 1: Bottom line on BYU, this is not a surprise team anymore.
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  Speaker 1: This is a physical quarterback, lead running back led Big
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  Speaker 1: twelve contender. It's got a genuine shot at the league.
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  Speaker 1: But there are enough questions here, enough close game dependency,
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  Speaker 1: and enough tough spots on the schedule that you know,
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  Speaker 1: I think every ticket's probably gonna probably gonna sweat a
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  Speaker 1: little bit. So that's I think that's where that program
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  Speaker 1: lives now. Honestly, that's not a bad place to be.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: This is a successful program. But my most likely record
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: is nine and three. Are you tired of soor knees
• 10:03
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• 10:14
  Speaker 1: over at ghost leaves dot com. Coming in at number nineteen,
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: I've got the Utah Utes and this is one of
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: the most genuinely difficult teams to figure out in the
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: Big twelve heading into twenty twenty six. And let me
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: be clear about what I mean by that. The brand
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: obviously still looks. The same expectations are still there. You
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: lose Kyle Whittingham, it doesn't matter because there's a lot
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: of continuity with Morgan Scalley. The roster's got talent. The
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: schedule is pretty manageable when you look at it. But
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: you know, you pop the hood on this thing. There's
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: a lot going on here. Morgan Scalley takes over as
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: head coach. You know Kyle Whittingham stepped away, Well that
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: was a weird situation. And then he takes the Michigan job.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: And that is that signific again, right Whittingham was he
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: was Utah football for over two decades. Scaley knows the building,
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: he knows the culture, he knows what the program is
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: supposed to feel like. But again, this is a first
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: time head coach. Like knowing the building and running the
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: building are two different jobs. Right. He's he's not been
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: a head coach before, and he's replacing a legend, and
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: that's a big deal. Utah went eleven and two last season.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: They had a rough twenty twenty four, so it's not
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: a program coming off of a disaster here. Utah's are sorry.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: The Utes are coming off of a big year. The
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  Speaker 1: question is, of course, whether they can keep that same physical,
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: grown man identity while replacing its under pieces and breaking
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: in a new staff. At the same time, the style
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: should still be Utah. You run it, you play defense,
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: be tougher in everybody else, keep a mobile quarterback involved
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: in the run game. But you got a new offensive coordinator,
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: Kevin mcgiven. The passing game has got to become a
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: genuine threat, not just window dressing. Like, if Utah wants
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: to win the Big twelve, the offense needs another gear.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: And I think here is where the risk becomes kind
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: of obvious. Right, Utah brings back three starters on offense
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: and three on defense. That's not ideal, you know, And
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: the biggest concern by mile, I think is the offensive
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: line because all five starters are gone, the tackles Lomu
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: and Fanu, they're off to the NFL. All three starting
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: interior offensive lineman graduated. Like for a program whose entire
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: identity is built on being physical at the point of attack,
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: that sentence should make you kind of sit up straight.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, losing all five offensive linemen, that's huge for
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: a program like Utah. Now the quarterback situation gives them
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: a chance to kind of work through it. Devin Dan Pierre,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: He's back Bird Ficklin is in the room that mobility
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  Speaker 1: can keep the run game functioning even when the blocking
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: isn't perfect. Way Sean Parker returns at running back gives
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: him a legitimate foundation receiver room. I think got better
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: to Brandon Peak comes in from Utah State. He caught
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: sixty balls for over nine hundred yards, he had five touchdowns,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: and then he got Kyrie Soles coming from San Jose State.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: Utah needs that passing game to, you know, to maybe
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: punish some people. If defenses can just pin their ears
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: back and attack and rebuilt offensive line without worrying about
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: the pass, that's that's a problem. Defense lost a lot too.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: The top four defensive linemen are gone, John Henry Daily
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: and Jonah Liay transferred to Michigan. The other two graduated,
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Lander Barton has gone, Ryan Davis and Dalen Bentley. They're gone.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: On offense, you got eighteen new faces on this roster.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: I think that's a pretty big number for them. But
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: Utah didn't I mean, they didn't cross their fingers. They
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: went into the portal with some purpose, right. You got
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: Mo from San Jose State, Samsula from Wyoming, Ethan Dave
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: from North Texas, Elijah Reid from Akron. AT think the
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: defensive line was getting pushed around late last year, especially
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: against the run, and I think the staff knew that
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: it needed to be fixed. So they went out and
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: got some dudes. So we've heard of the bad. What
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: does this program actually have going for it? The quarterback mobility,
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: We've already brought that up. The run game. It still
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: gives Utah an identity. We'll see if that offensive line
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: can hold up. But Dampier and Fickland, they make the
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: offense harder to defend. I think, and Parker kind of
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: keeps things on schedule. That matters. When your offensive line
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: is fresh, you need the quarterback to be able to create.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: You need a run game that doesn't evaporate the moment
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: the blocking breaks down. The pass catching group is better.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: I already mentioned that. Yeah, I mean Pigan and shoals
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: are that's real production there. If mcgiven the offensive coordinator,
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: can get this passing attack even to middle of the
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: pack big twelve levels, the offense becomes a lot more
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: difficult to game plan against. As far as the defensive side,
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: I still trust the defensive structure. Scaley knows what Utah
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: defense supposed to be. Like, Colton Swan steps in as DC,
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: and while the personnel is changing, the standard I don't
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: think has to like. This group should still be physical,
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: multiple and difficult to prepare for as long as they
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: can actually stop the run up front. Now, as far
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: as red flags, the offensive line is the obvious one.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: You don't assume continuity when you replace five starters, no
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: matter how good the program is. So until that group
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: can kind of prove that it can function, that's the
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: biggest unknown on the team. The defensive front is the
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: other one. I mentioned that before. They added portal pieces,
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: but they got to prove they can hold the line
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: against physical offenses. It was an issue late in twenty
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: twenty five. It could probably become one again. And then
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: there's the sheer volume of change, right, new head coach,
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: new offensive coordinator, new defensive coordinator, plenty of new faces
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: around the locker room. That's a lot of moving parts
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: for a team that's priced like a contender. The schedule
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: does give them some favors early, right, three straight home
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: games to open. You got Idaho Arkansas, which you know,
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: good name, but also first time head coach, a lot
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: of turnover, etc. And then you got Utah State. That's
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: what you want as a new staff and a rebuilt
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: offensive line. You got time at home, you got real
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: games to work through combinations. You should win all those games,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: get the operations sworded before the schedule kind of starts
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: making some demands. You know, the most danger comes late
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: when BYU comes in, and that's mostly a coin flip game, right,
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: that's the Holy Ward. It's physical, it's emotional, all that
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: kind of stuff. But you know, you've got a road
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: game at Iowa State in week four, should be able
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: to win that ballgame. You've got a home game against
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: Kansas in week six after a bye road at Colorado
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: in week seven, all those kind of things. You know,
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: the Arizona game is interesting, especially the week after BYU,
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: because that's a little bit of a trap spot. I mean,
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: that stretch towards the end of the season BYU, Arizona, TCU,
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: and Arizona and TCU both on the road. That's gonna
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: tell you everything you need to know about what this
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: team is. If the offensive line has figured itself out
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: by then and the defensive front is holding up, Utah
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: can win those games to push for the top of
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: the Big twelve. If not, that's where the season slides.
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: Ceiling I think is eleven to one. The schedule sets
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: up for that. They don't play Texas Tech this year.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: You do have to deal with BYU. But you get
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: that one at home. You know, eleven and one isn't
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: completely crazy. If the offensive line comes together, Dan Pierre becomes,
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: you know, a more consistent passer. I'm not expecting that necessarily.
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: But if the defensive front gets back to Utah standard,
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: the floor I think is seven and five. Say the
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: trenches aren't ready run, defense is leaky, new staff has
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: growing pains. Most likely, I'm gonna go with nine and three.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: Win total is eight and a half. The over is
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: listed at minus one twenty eight, the under at plus
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: one twenty five. I lean over, but you know the
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: number's playable. But I think these questions are legitimate and
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: the price is legit here. I'm not gonna hammer this one.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: This isn't one of my best bets. This is still
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: one of the safest cultures in the Big twelve. If
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: this thing ticks up to nine, I might take an
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: under at a plus price, just based on the fact
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: that you know the schedule gives them a chance. But
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: especially late, I mean, there's some potential land mines here
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: and we don't know what to expect because there's a
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: lot of questions in twenty twenty six, like the utes
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: are asking a brand new staff, a completely rebuilt offensive
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: line to keep this machine from wobbling. I think I
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: think that's worth watching. You want extra winning cures, everything content,
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: and a way to support the show directly, head over
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: to buy me a coffee dot com slash Winning Cures
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: and become part of the community today. The Iowa Hawk
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: guys are my number eighteen power aaded team, and I
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: mean it when I say that this might be the
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: most Iowa preview that I've ever done. Kirk Farnce is
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: back for year twenty eight. I mean that's wild. Everybody
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: else in college football is changing coordinators, flipping rosters, rebuilding
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: entire programs every three years. I was just in there like, yeah,
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: we're good. We're gonna play defense, we're gonna run the ball,
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: we're gonna punch you into misery, and we're gonna make
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: you genuinely hate football for three and a half hours.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: It is the same as it always was. Last year
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: was another very Iowa season. Went nine and four. They
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: went three and four and one score games still went over.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: The win total wasn't always pretty, because my god, it
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: never is. But they did what they always do. They
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: stayed competitive, they won ugly, They leaned on the structure,
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: they found a way to matter. Twenty twenty six is
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: a legit reset, though, Like this isn't just Iowa reloading
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: like normal. This is maybe one of the bigger turnover
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: years the farance has faced in a long time. Iowa
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: returns four starters on offense and three on defense. That
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: ain't much. They're replacing the starting quarterback, three first team
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: all Big ten offensive linemen, all four starting defensive linemen,
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: eight defensive starters total, and then you've got major special
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: teams pieces. But this is the big one, right, longtime
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: special teams coordinator LeVar Woods, who was I mean, he
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: was with Ferns for eighteen years. He has left to
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: take over Pat Fitzgerald's special teams to join his staff
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: at Michigan State. So yeah, allergies suck, but yes, Iowa
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: is still Iowa. This is the year where they're trying
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: to be Iowa while replacing a lot of the stuff
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: that normally makes Iowa work. The identity is not changing.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: Slow pace, run, first field position, all that kind of stuff.
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: Conservative offense, physical defense, make you beat yourself and then wait,
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: like Iowa wants to drag you into a rock fight
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: and then turn the lights off and make you live
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: in their world for four quarters. And that part is
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: not going to go anywhere. The question, though, is whether
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: the roster has enough trench play and special team's reliability
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: to keep winning those ugly games. At quarterback, you get
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: Jeremy Heklinsky and Hank Brown. That's the two names that
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: are that are batting it out. Are battling it out,
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: excuse me. And that competition matters because Iowa doesn't need
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: a superstar back there, like nobody's asking him to throw
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: for four thousand yards even even in this new offense.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: But they do need competence, protect the football, find the
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: tight end, convert third and medium. Don't turn a seventeen
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: to fourteen game into a funeral. You know, sounds like
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: a low bar, but with Iowa that's often the entire
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: margin between nine wins and six wins. The run game
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: has a real foundation with McCary moulton, He's back after
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: running for eight hundred and seventy eight yards and five
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: touchdowns last year. That that matters. Iowa's offense is not
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: built to chase shootouts. It's built the shortened games, control possessions,
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: keep the defense in manageable spots. If they can't run
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: it the whole playing go sideways and in the passing game,
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: you know, the tight end dj Vanami. Hopefully I say
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: that right, Iowa fans, you can correct me. It gives
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: the new quarterbacks somewhere to go right. He led the
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: team last year with four hundred and thirty four receiving yards.
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: He had three touchdowns for this offense. For a new
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: signal caller that's finding his footing, the tight end needs
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: to be that reliable piece. It's survival gear. Basically, Iowa
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: went into the portal at a program record level. They
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: added sixteen transfers this time, three receivers, four defensive linemen,
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: four defensive backs. They got safety Tyler Brown from James Madison.
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: They got a new kicker, Eli Oazik, punter ten or Philpott.
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: The staff looked at this roster knew what it needed.
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: They needed bodies, they needed competition, They needed answers at
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: certain positions that Iowa usually has, you know, grown men
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: ready to handle. The losses are pretty real. Though Mark
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: Gronowski's gone at quarterback, he really melded into that role
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: eventually last year. Logan Jones gone at center. He wasn't
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: just any center. He won the Riminton Award. Three first
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: team All Big toon. Offensive linemen are gone, all four
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: starting defensive linemen, Caden Wedgin gone, the placekicker, the punter,
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: LeVar Woods have already mentioned these. That's a lot of
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: Iowans that's walking out the door at the same time,
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: which is by the biggest strength right now might not
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: be a player. It might just the biggest strength might
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: be the program itself. Right Farence is there. Phil Parker's
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: still there doing his thing. The culture that knows how
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: to develop guys, teach defense and make opponents uncomfortable. It's
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: not gone, it's it's still there. There are teams where
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: this much turnover would make me say like I'm out,
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: you know whatever. But with Iowa, you at least pause
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: because the staff has earned that. Parker in particular is
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: the reason that you go right off the defense entirely.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: Replacing eight starters is huge. But this system has been
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: the backbone of this program forever and they know what
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: they're trying to be. Zach Lutmer gives them a real
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: centerpiece in the secondary. He was second team All Big
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: Ten last year. He can play safety, you can play corner,
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: he can play cash. That versatility matters when you're rebuilding
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: around him. Now, obviously there are red flags. I've brought
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: up a few of them. Quarterback uncertainty is number one.
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: Right If Hecklinsky or Brown is competent, Away survives, if
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: the position is actively hurting them. It does get ugly
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: because I don't think there's enough margin everywhere else to
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: be able to cover that. The offensive line is number two.
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: You don't lose two. What excuse me? Three? First team
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: all big ten linemen, including the best center in the country,
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: and assume that the run game is going to hold up.
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: I think that's just wishful thinking. The defensive front plus
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: special teams turnover that's number three, because that's the Iowa formula.
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: You gotta win up front, you gotta flip the field,
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: you gotta make teams drive eighty yards against Phil Parker.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: If those two things aren't what they normally are, Iowa
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: loses the hidden edge that made them so hard to beat.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: As far as the schedule, it's kind of got kind
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: of got two different personalities here. Iowa should open up
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: three and Oho Northern Iowa. Iowa State and Northern Iowa,
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: all of them at home. You use that stretch to
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: kind of settle the new pieces, find out what you
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: got a quarterback, build some confidence, and then the calendar
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: just punches you in the face at Michigan home against
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: Ohio State and then at Washington. Three games, all brutal
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: for a team that's breaking in a new quarterback and
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: rebuilding both trenches. Like I was gonna be a heavy
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: underdog I think in all three and not maybe not
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: a heavy underdog in all three, but they're certainly going
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: to be dogs in all three of those. Could they
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: steal one of them? Like sure, that's I think that's
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: one of the most on brand things in the history
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: of Iowa football. But you can't build a projection around that.
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: So then after the brutal stretch, the schedule settles into
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: exactly what you would expect. Right Minnesota on the road,
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin at home at Northwestern, Then you got Purdue at
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: home at Illinois, and then nebraskat home. Like those are
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: all those are all Iowa games twenty to seventeen, seventeen thirteen.
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: Weird special teams played. Somebody gets a third down stop,
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: somebody throws a pick. Everybody goes home annoyed, like that's
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: that's their neighborhood. The key swing games for me, though,
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Iowa State early and then Washington
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: on the road and Illinois late. You win enough of those,
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: you can get to the number. You split too many,
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: you're sitting at seven and five wondering what happened. I
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: think the ceiling for this team is nine and three.
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: Say the quarterback stabilizes, Phil Parker reloads that defense faster
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: than expected. New special teams hold up. So if the
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: ceiling is nine and three, I think the floor is
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: still a bowl team at six and six. Like, there's
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: plenty of lou Losable games here. Offensive line rebuild struggles,
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: defensive front gets pushed around, Iowa stops winning the hidden
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: yardage battle that define their entire program. Most likely, I've
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: got them at seven and five. Now, the win total
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: is seven and a half, the over at minus one
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: oh five, the under is plus one twenty. These are
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: best numbers. My lean is to the under. Now, that's
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: not me saying that Iowa falls apart. That's not how
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: this program operates, but replacing this much in the trenches
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: at quarterback and across the defense and special teams, all
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: while Michigan, Ohio State, and Washington show up in a
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: three week window. That's a lot. You could be three
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: and three before the bye week and then have to
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: go on the road to Minnesota, which is losible. Wisconsin
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: at home is losable. Northwestern on the road, yeah that's
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: losible too. I don't think you're gonna lose to Purdue,
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: but then at Illinois and Nebraska back to back, that's
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: you know, Look, Iowa is still the Big Tens king
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: of the right. They just might not have quite enough
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: of the right pieces this year to drag every ugly
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: game across the finish line. That's what I'm concerned about.
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: So the strength of schedule is pretty difficult. It's easy
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: enough in the Big ten or sorry, yeah, big ten.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: But that twelve on that graphic threw me off. But
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: I'm I'm looking at seven and five like I know
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: that my projected wins has them at eight point one six,
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: but that under plus one twenty looks a little juicy
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: to me. Hit that subscribe button and make sure to
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: like the video, and if you're listening to the podcast,
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: of course, make sure and visit Winning cures everything on
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: YouTube at YouTube dot com. Slash Winning cures everything. So
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: you don't miss any of our college football coverage this season.
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: All right, The Texas Tech Red Raiders are my number
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: seventeen Power rated team, and I'm not sure if there's
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: a team in the Big twelve with a bigger gap
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: between This roster is genuinely scary. And we really got
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: to figure out this quarterback situation, right And I know
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech fans, I'm sure are like number seventeen. Did
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: you see the team that we just bought? Like, what
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: are we talking about? Look, Joey McGuire is heading into
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: year five. Program is coming off a monster season like
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: twelve and two last year, one of the top teams,
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: well the top team of the Big twelve, And for
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: most of that run they were not just beating people
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: that were absolutely embarrassing them. Only regular season loss was
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: about four at Arizona State. Every other win before the
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: playoff came by at least three touchdowns. But the season
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: ended ugly, right twenty three to nothing lost to Oregon
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: in the CFP quarterfinals. That's not a great closing image.
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: It does not erase what the program has turned into.
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: Like Forget the old Texas Tech stereotype points, tempo passing,
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: all that kind of stuff in a defense that typically
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: treated tackling like it was a suggestion. That is not this.
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: This team is physical, They are aggressive, They are portal built,
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: They are loaded in the back, they are pretty deep
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: at the skill spots, dangerous upfront. Defensively, it looks like
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: the bully roster of the Big twelve, and that's obviously
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: a high compliment. The whole thing gets wrapped around one
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: massive question for this season. That's who's playing quarterback and
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: how good can that guy actually be? Like if Brenan
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: Sowersby is available, the ceiling looks completely different. But obviously
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: his eligibility tied to an ongoing NCAA gamling case. You
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: can't just pencil him in and move forward like it's
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: nothing if he can't go Tulsa transfer. Kirk Francis I think,
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: is going to be the guy. Will Hammond is going
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: to be working back from injury. They said that he
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: could probably get back around week three. Your first two games,
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: you should be able to handle that, no problem, right.
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: But the distinction matters. It's the difference between Texas Tech
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: might run the league and Texas Tech might run the league,
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: just not compete for a national title like Sowersby. I
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: think is that kind of a difference. The returning production
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: gives you a lot to work with either way. You
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: got six starters back on offense, six on defense. Cameron
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: Dickey and Jacoby Williams, they're both back at running back.
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: Three offensive line starters return. You got Samson, Ponton and
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: Wilson back there, Terrence Carter Junior back at tight end.
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: It's not a bear cupboard, pretty loaded pantry for an
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: offense to operate out of the portal class reflects exactly
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: where the program thinks it is right. Kirk France is
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: coming in from Tulsa. He was supposed to be like
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: the third string guy, Dante Lee coming in from Liberty,
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: Malcolm Simmons wide receiver from Auburn, Kenny Johnson from pitt
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: Jordan Church from Louisville. On the offensive line. Defensively, I
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: mean they loaded up again. You got Trey White from
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: San Diego State, Adam Trick from Miami Ohio, Austin Romain
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: from Kansas State. That's not depth shopping. That is contender shopping.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: You know, the losses are certainly real. You got several
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: NFL draft picks gone On defense, the headliner is David
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: Bailey led the entire nation in Saxson twenty twenty five.
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: Jacob Bradriguez was a leader. He's gone. Romelo Hight gone,
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: Cole was Newski gone, Jack Burt has gone. At punter defense,
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: special teams still gonna have talent. They're not just replacing names,
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: they're replacing production that was genuinely elite last season. Now
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: here's why I'm still really high on this team despite
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: all of it. And I know you're like, are you
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: high on this team if you've got them at number seventeen?
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: You look at that schedule, you look at the ratings
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: and whatnot. Yeah, I'm still super high on this team.
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: Like the defense is gonna run it. But we'll start
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: with this. The running backs are the biggest strength on
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: the roster. Right Dicky and Williams combined for nearly two
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: thousand yards rushing and twenty five at total touchdowns last year.
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech has a real identity regardless of who's under center.
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: Quarterback doesn't have to be the whole offense. Like you
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: can lean on the run game, use play action off it,
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: stay ahead of the sticks and avoid putting whoever's back
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: there in a bunch of third and eight garbage. Right,
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: offensive blind continuity helps with exactly that Samson, Pontin and Wilson,
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: they're coming back. That matters a lot when your quarterback
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: room has questions. You don't want a shaky quarterback situation
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: compounded by protection problems. Right. The fact that they've got
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: three experienced starters back up front gives them a real
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: chance to function early. And the skill group around the
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: quarterback is good enough. I think potentially elite carter at
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: tight end. That's a legitimate weapon. Kenny Johnson adds to
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: the receiver room. I think Malcolm Simmons, if he's actually
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: got a quarterback, can be really good like it. The
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: other portal additions are enough options to make this offense work,
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: assuming that the guy throwing it is not a liability. Defensively,
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: the pass rush is going to be the biggest reload.
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: Like you don't replace the national sack leader just by
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: willing it into existence. But Trey White had nineteen and
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: a half sacks over his last two seasons at San
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: Diego State. Adam Trick had twelve and a half tackles
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: for loss last year at Miami Ohio. Are they guaranteed
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: to replicate what Tech loss? No, But the upside is
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: legit here and on the back end, Bryce Pollock gives
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: you some genuine confidence. He had five interceptions. He was
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: first team All Big Twelve. When you got a corner
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: like that, it kind of changes how aggressive you can
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: be defensively because you trust him to win on an island.
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: Sometimes red flags are not small, though. Quarterback situations everything.
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: If Soorsby's eligible, if he plays like the guy they
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: thought he could be, this team might be the best
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: in the conference. If he's not available, Kirk Francis has
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: to be more than just adequate, right and Will Hammond
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: coming back? Like they obviously like this guy a lot.
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: They've got him on a multi year deal, But how
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: good is he coming off an injury? Like Texas Tech
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: can win a lot of games here with average quarterback play.
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: The roster is that good. But if we're talking playoff contention,
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: if we're talking beating top tier teams, average probably doesn't
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: get you there. Like Texas Tech doesn't play BYU or
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: Utah in the regular season, I think they're gonna be
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: able to handle things in the Big twelve pretty easily.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: The defensive replacement production it that's concerned Number two here,
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: you lose Bailey all those other NFL draft picks. That's
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: dangerous business. Right, You can like the portal additions and
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: still acknowledge that replacing elite production is risky. And then
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: there's special teams. You replace Burgess at punter. He may
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: not be the headline item, but hidden yardage is legit.
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: Field positions real. One ugly special team sequence can flip
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: a game that you thought you had managed. That may
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: not against this schedule, but still that could be how
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: the season gets derailed, not because Texas Tech suddenly becomes bad,
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: but because the quarterback plays inconsistent, the pass rush maybe
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: takes longer to rebuild than expected, and a couple of
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: games get weird because the margins are smaller than they
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: were last year. Schedule makes this even more interesting, right,
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: because it's I mean, it's set up for this roster
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: to just cash. Right. Tech is projected as a favorite
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: in every single game. They avoid BYU in the regular season,
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: they avoid Utah, they get Houston, Arizona State, Arizona, West Virginia,
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: and TCU all at home, like the biggest road games,
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: the only road games at Oregon State at Colorado, at Cincinnati,
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: at Oklahoma State at Baylor. Like anything worse than ten
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: and two is gonna feel like a complete hell. Ten
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: and two would feel like a complete disappointment. The spots
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: that I'm watching the most closely here as far as
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: key games for this season, Houston Week three, where you
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: know you're gonna find out early about the quarterback situation
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: like that, that's some legit drama. It's on a Friday night.
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: Should still be able to handle that game, though, I
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: would think at Cincinnati in Week eight, conference road games
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: have a way of getting weird. Not to mention if
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: Swersby comes back, if it's like a six game suspension
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: swords Bey's coming back, his first game back would be
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: at the place that he just left. Again. Could get
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: a little weird at Oklahoma State in Week eleven, when
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: the entire league has figured out exactly what Texas Tech
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: is and Oklahoma State has had some time to get
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: things rolling with their new coaching staff and new acquisitions
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: and whatnot. The season finale against TCU. It's at home,
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: but that could set the tone going into the postseason.
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: You know you should be setting up with that game
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: to head into the Big twelve championship game. Ceiling is
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: obviously twelve to zero with this schedule. If swords Of
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: plays the pass rush reloads that stuff's on the table,
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: the floor is I think eight and four. So as
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: we doesn't play replacement quarterback struggles, defense takes us bigger
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: step back than expected. I think the most likely record
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: is eleven and one. When total is sitting at ten
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: and a half, the over is listed at minus one seventy,
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: the under at plus one fifty. I lean the over.
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: The price is pretty uncomfortable, like you're paying a real
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: tax because this schedule is friendly and the roster is loaded,
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: Like I know why the number is there, but lay
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: minus one seventy means this thing better than not get
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: weird in October, right. I think Texas Tech has the
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: best roster in the Big twelve. The run game travels,
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: the defensive talent is there even with the losses that
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: they had. The schedule sets up brilliantly, and the program
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: has built something real under maguire. So my final thought here,
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: like the bully roster is in place, like now the
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: whole season comes down to the quarterback situation and whether
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: or not that actually lets them catch this ticket, and
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: then we'll see what kind of a contender they are
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: once we get into December. Shirts, hoodies, hats, and more.
• 38:34
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• 38:38
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• 38:41
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• 38:47
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  Speaker 1: don't forget it's available everywhere you get a PODCASTS sixteen
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: team Power Rated for twenty twenty six is the Washington Huskies,
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: and honestly, the headline here pretty straightforward. This team's dangerous,
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: they're trending up, they got a real quarterback, but we
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: still need to see them actually punch somebody at the
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: top of the Big Ten, right Jetfish. Heading into year three,
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: Huskies went nine to four last season. That's a good year,
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: nobody should downplay it, but the gap between good and
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: legitimate Big Ten contender showed up pretty clearly when the
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: schedule got hard, like Washington lost to Ohio State, Michigan
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: and Oregon in games where they were out gained by
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: more than in most of them, more than one hundred
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: and fifty yards each time, and then they dropped that
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: thirteen to ten game at Wisconsin late in the year.
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: That's one that still lingers because the offense had genuinely
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: taken a step forward overall, but when they ran into
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: better defenses and the more physical teams, it got uncomfortable fast.
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: So twenty twenty six isn't about proving they can be competent.
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: They already did that. Now it's about climbing into that
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: next tier. The identity of this team's fun, quarterback driven offense.
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: They've explosive upside offensive line that's starting to look like
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: a real asset, and a defense that Ryan Walters is
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: actively retooling with more athleticism, more linked, more portal pieces. Right,
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: this feels like a big ten riser, but Washington, I
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: don't think is a finished product just yet. Biggest reason
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: for optimism starts and ends with Demon Williams Junior. Right,
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: He's back. That matters enormously. Obviously, weird stuff went on
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: with the transfer portal back in January. It is what
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: it is when you got a quarterback that threw for
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: over three thousand yards and twenty five touchdowns. That can
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: also hurt people with his legs. You got a chance
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: every Saturday. He's the guy who turns a broken play
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: into a thirty yard game and just makes defensive coordinators
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: start chewing on that laminated call sheet. Right, that's a
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: real weapon. The nice part is Washington isn't putting him
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: behind duct tape and mushful thinking. They bring back four
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: offensive line starters. You got Mills Hatchett as a party,
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: and they added five star left tackle Cody Green. That's
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: a real investment when the offensive line is functional. Williams
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: didn't just scrambling around trying to save drives by himself
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: like he can operate within a real offense. Washington returns
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: seven starters on offense, five on defense. So there is
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: meaningful continuity relative to a lot of teams in this league.
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, the losses are still legit. They're not just
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: depth chart names. Denzel Boston's gone, Joanah Coleman's gone, Carver Willis,
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: Adam Muhammad, Raydon Vines Bright, they're all gone. Multiple defensive contributor,
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: excuse me, they're at the door too. Quarterback in the
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: offensive liner back skill talent has to reload. It's got
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: to reload quickly. Portal class is designed to help right
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: Christian Moss comes in from Kennesaws State at receiver, Jaden
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: Lamar from Oregon at running back. You got Colt Dieterrick
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: from Sam Houston at right tackle. Defensively, they add Deshaun
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: Watch from Sacramento State, Darren Connley from Ball State, Coy
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: McClinton Fromssissippi State, Emanuel Carnley from Virginia, and they addressed
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: specialists as well, Tyler Robles at kicker, Hunter Green at punter.
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: Lots of new faces, and the defensive front especially needed
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: the reinforcements here. So let's talk about what this team's
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: actually got going for it. Williams is strength number one.
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's particularly close. He gives Washington one
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: of the better offensive engines in the entire Big Ten.
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: The production is already on tape, the mobility is already
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: on tape. If he takes another step forward in year
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: two of this system, like Washington, will be a real
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: problem to game plan for the offensive line, I think
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: is strength number two. You got four starters back plus
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: Cody Green gives them a legitimate chance to be better
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: up front, and I think that's enormous in this conference,
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: Like you're not surviving Big Ten football games with a
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: run game that's decorative and a quarterback that gets knocked
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: sideways every third and drop back. Right, Washington has a
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: real shot at being more balanced this year. As far
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: as the defense. In the middle of the defense, I
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: like what they got Jacob Manhu, Alexander and Rainey Sail.
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: That's a linebacker group with a chance to be one
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: of the better units in the Big Ten. Right, Alex McLaughlin,
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: Ryland Dillard Allen, they're back at safety. Carnly adds another
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: upside at cornerback, quarterback, offensive line, linebacker, safety, Like those
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: are solid foundational pieces. Let's talk red flags replacing Boston
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: and Coleman. That's the obvious one, right. They weren't just
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: names fill and roster spots. They were legit dudes. And
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: they need whoever steps into those spots to actively create
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: explosive plays because you can't ask Williams to just will
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: this offense into big moments every week like that works.
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: Sometimes it's not gonna work against the top of the
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: Big Ten. Week after a week. The defensive line is
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: the second concern. They lost multiple contributors up front, and
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: while the portal additions are gonna help, they still have
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: to prove they can hold up against teams that want
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: to lean on them physically. That was the issue last year.
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: Like when Washington played those better teams, they got pushed
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: around too often. Even against Wisconsin, that was the thing,
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: and that's a thing that has to change in this conference.
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: The pass rush and the run defense have got to
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: be more reliable. Overall. If you can affect quarterbacks, you
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: can't consistently stop the run. The best teams in this
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: league are going to exploit it like it. It's not
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: a theory. That's what happened in twenty twenty five. Now,
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: the schedule is set up to help them build right.
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: Washington opens with four straight home games Washington State. They
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: should be able to handle that one pretty easily, even
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: in a rivalry spot Utah State, Eastern Washington, Minnesota. That
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: Minnesota game is interesting, especially the week before you go
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: to USC, But that's exactly what you want when you're
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: replacing skill production and integrating a bunch of new defensive pieces, right,
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: you get things right at home figure out your combinations.
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: Don't put yourself in an early hole. But that Week
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: five is when things get real right at USC, that's
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: the first true measuring stick. That's where you're gonna find
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: out if Washington's fun or if they're actually dangerous. Week six,
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: Iowa comes to Seattle. Completely different kind of test. It's
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: not a track meat, it's a toughness game. Can you
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: stay patient? Can you avoid mistakes? Can you grind through
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: a game where every possession feels like you're dragging a
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: cylinder or a cinder block uphill? Right November, it gets
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: pretty serious. You got Penn State at home in week ten,
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: Indiana in week twelve, road trips to Nebraska, to Michigan State,
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: who interesting right with Pat Fitzgerald, and then Oregon at
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: the end. Toughest projected spots are going to be USC, Indiana, Nebraska, Oregan.
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: I think those games will define the entire season. Washington
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: has a clear path to eight wins, but if they
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: want more than that, you gotta win toss up games.
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: Handling the obvious ones, calling it a breakthrough, I don't
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: think that's gonna cut it. The ceiling is ten and two.
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: Williams takes another step, The receivers grow fast, the running
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: back room reloads, defensive front over achieves all that. The
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: floor is six and six. How do you get to
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: six and six? Let's say losing Boston and Coleman hurts
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: more than expected. Nobody steps up. The defense keeps getting
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: shoved around by physical offenses on the schedule, and there's
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: a lot of them. The most likely record for me
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: is eight and four, the win total of seven and
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: a half. The over is minus one fifty, the under
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: at plus one forty. I lean over, but I don't love.
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: I don't like the price at minus one fifty. I mean,
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: Washington should be good enough to get to eight wins.
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: The schedule gives them enough manageable games to get there.
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: But lay in minus one fifty you kind of need
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: to be comfortable. And I don't know if this situation
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: earns that comfort level yet. But you know, most people
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: will believe that when you got a quarterback like that
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: and you're returning all those offensive linemen, oh yeah, they're
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: gonna win eight games easy? Sure? Why not? There's a
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: bunch of losable games on this schedule. The upside is real,
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: Like the quarterback is really, offensive line is real, but
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: this is a team that still has to prove it
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: can handle the heavyweights when it you know, when the
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: moment shows up. As far as my final thought on
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: this Washington, this is a quarterback led big Riser with
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: legitimate playoff flashes in their game, but until they actually
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: push back against the best teams in the league, they
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: are still more dangerous than proven. A one more reminder
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: if you haven't already liked the video, subscribe to Winning
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: Cures Everything and make sure to give me your thoughts
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: in the comments. We are going to see you again
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: next time. Till then, enjoy your long weekend, take care
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: of yourself, take care of each other. God bless college
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: football and hopefully all of your tickets cash this week.
• 47:32
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