Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Why They Can't STOP the $36T Debt Bubble | Bitcoin Was Right! | Beyond Bitcoin

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Why They Can't STOP the $36T Debt Bubble | Bitcoin Was Right! | Beyond Bitcoin · Simply Bitcoin

0:00
OK, remember to mention Bitcoin price as of this recording.
0:05
Oh, hi, Bitcoin is at price as of this recording.
0:13
Anyway, three things today. First, the signal.
0:17
There's a very specific moment in every economic cycle when
0:20
normal people start freaking out about the price of gas,
0:23
wondering why nothing feels stable anymore.
0:26
We are in that moment, and historically this is when
0:29
Bitcoin matters most. Second, why the system can't fix
0:32
it? Not because of incompetence.
0:35
Well, I mean there is a bit of that, but because debt requires
0:39
inflation to survive, and inflation means the print is
0:42
always coming. Lynn Alden has been saying this
0:44
for years. She's also going to be right in
0:47
real time. Third, why only one asset is
0:51
backed by math instead of a promise?
0:53
Not stocks. It's not gold, not real estate.
0:56
Yes, you guessed it, it's Bitcoin.
0:59
Here's the thesis. Every time the system breaks
1:02
visibly enough for your non Bitcoin friends to feel it in
1:05
their gas bill, in their grocery bill, in their la Boo Boo bill.
1:10
Don't judge me. Bitcoin doesn't just survive, it
1:13
advances. You can't print math.
1:17
Well, you can print it on a piece of paper, but you can't
1:19
print the well you, no, you. I guess you can't print math in
1:24
a lot of ways. Let's start with gas prices.
1:26
This is where the conversation always starts.
1:28
Not in a boardroom, not on a podcast at a gas station.
1:32
The gas price is a source of truth.
1:34
Everything revolves around it. It's energy.
1:37
The Iran war has been running for a month.
1:40
Oil spikes when tankers get hit. Tankers get hit regularly now,
1:44
and Iran struck A Kuwaiti oil tanker just two days ago.
1:48
And the cost of that conflict travels directly through the
1:51
pump, through the grocery store, through the electric bill and
1:55
into the conversation your neighbor is having with you in
1:57
the driveway. Gas prices, am I right?
2:01
Right. That conversation isn't
2:03
political. It's personal.
2:04
It's why does everything cost more and feel less stable?
2:08
The question itself is actually an orange pill.
2:11
They just don't know it yet. Here's the oil chart.
2:13
Every time there's a movement in the Strait of Hormuz, you see
2:16
it. Every spike on this chart is a
2:18
moment where the cost of energy, and therefore the cost of
2:21
everything went up. And every time that happens, a
2:24
government somewhere has to decide, do we raise rates and
2:27
let the economy contract, or do we print and inflate?
2:31
Well, of course they print. They always print.
2:34
That's not cynicism, that's historical record.
2:37
Everything's crazy right now. I know.
2:40
I mean, I feel like this is the year.
2:41
Do you feel like this is the year that people realize that,
2:46
like both of the neither side of the government is working for
2:51
us? Is that a weird thing to say?
2:52
Well, it's true. It's pretty obvious that it's
2:54
true, OK? They're all working for the
2:56
people that got them in. So no matter what they, even if
2:58
they're good people that want to do well for you, there are
3:00
obligations when they get in there are the people that help
3:03
them get in there. They're the campaign
3:05
contributors. So the military industrial
3:07
complex, the military contractors, the big money, big
3:11
money banks, big money. That's what this all this
3:14
government shutdown shit was all about, man.
3:17
It's all about healthcare, right?
3:19
So it's all about how much money is getting funneled through
3:22
these corporations. If you really think that what
3:25
they're trying to do is make sure that people get healthcare,
3:28
you're fucking naive. Yeah, you're ridiculous.
3:30
What they're doing is they are protecting some kind of slush
3:35
fund. If somebody digs into this and
3:37
finds out where that money's going and finds out how this
3:40
money's distributed, it'll make more sense because there ain't a
3:43
fucking chance in hell that they're keeping the government
3:47
shut down to protect your health.
3:49
There's not a chance. There's not a chance they're
3:51
shutting down the fucking air traffic controllers.
3:55
Not a chance they're shutting down NASA because they're
3:58
worried about you getting the flu.
3:59
That shit is not happening. That's not what's going on.
4:02
Here's why this clip matters, and it actually has nothing to
4:04
do with Theo Von. Specifically.
4:06
Theo Von is one of the most successful podcasters on the
4:09
planet. He grew up without money.
4:10
He talks about the world the way people without financial safety
4:13
Nets talk about the world personally, concretely, and in
4:16
terms of whether the thing at the grocery store cost more than
4:20
it did last month. When Theo Von is freaking out
4:23
about the economy on Joe Rogan in front of 20 million people,
4:26
that's a signal. Not because Theo Von is a macro
4:29
analyst, but because Theo Von is the leading indicator of what
4:34
your dentist, your mechanic, or your uncle who still has a flip
4:37
phone are about to start thinking about.
4:40
The Bitcoin adoption curve is always moved this way.
4:43
First it's the Twitter crowd, then it's the podcasters, then
4:46
it's the people who watch those podcasts, then it's the people
4:50
who hear about it from those people who watch those podcasts
4:53
at Thanksgiving. We are somewhere in the middle
4:55
of that sequence right now, and the Theo Vons of the world are
4:59
starting to feel the friction. Most unpopular war in American
5:03
history going in Check the scoreboard. 13 dead Americans
5:07
and 150 plus other wounded. Thousands of innocents including
5:11
little schoolgirls in Iran. Killed dead innocent Israelis.
5:15
Hundreds of dead innocent people in in Lebanon.
5:18
Millions of innocent people being displaced, all at the cost
5:22
of 10s of billions of dollars and destroying Trump's
5:25
coalition. You just watch Dave Smith tear
5:30
into Adam Sosnik. On yesterday's episode of Piers
5:33
Morgan Uncensored, the two right wing commentators were debating
5:37
the Iran war. Let's hear Smith make his case
5:40
for why he thinks the war in Iran is not going well.
5:44
The big picture here is that clearly the calculation changed
5:46
for Iran. It they no longer feel that it's
5:50
in their incentive for self preservation to not strike back
5:54
and kill Americans or not do maximal damage.
5:56
And now clearly with a younger, more radical Ayatollah who has
6:01
not promised to not build nuclear weapons, they've made
6:04
the calculation that actually they can't not give us a bloody
6:07
nose, that they have to really make this cost to us.
6:11
Otherwise, we'll be back in another few months doing it
6:13
again. And of course, at the beginning
6:15
of this war, Donald Trump said this was a full regime change
6:19
war and called for the people to rise up and overthrow their
6:22
government. And the people did rise up,
6:24
Pierce, in support of their martyr Ayatollah.
6:27
This all relies on two major factors.
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Think about this, Pierce. It's not just that Donald Trump
6:32
has to call it quit and declare victory or whatever.
6:35
But then we got two other entities that are majorly
6:37
involved in this war, Iran and Israel.
6:40
Now, we know at this point, Iran is saying they're vowing not to
6:43
stop. They talk a lot of bluster.
6:44
Who knows? Maybe they will.
6:46
But Israel, Pierce, we all know they want the regime change
6:49
here. Dave Smith is a libertarian
6:52
comedian who has been talking about government dysfunction
6:54
since before it was in fashion. He's been consistently early on
6:58
every story that later became mainstream.
7:01
The media bias, the war narrative, the economic
7:04
manipulation. What he's describing now is a
7:07
specific phase change, the moment when people stop trusting
7:12
the official story and start asking why that moment is the
7:16
precondition for Bitcoin adoption.
7:18
You don't reach for a decentralized, mathematically
7:20
fixed money supply until you've decided that the centralized,
7:23
politically managed version can't be trusted.
7:27
That decision is happening not in a think tank, but at a gas
7:30
pump. This is the consumer confidence
7:33
chart. This is what everyone is
7:35
freaking out looks like in data. The line goes down when people
7:39
stop trusting the future and when the gas bill, the grocery
7:43
bill, and the general vibe of the news cycle override the
7:46
official message that everything is fine.
7:50
Every major draw down on this chart corresponds to a period
7:53
where hard assets, real things that can't be diluted, start to
7:57
look more interesting. Gold rallied.
8:00
Bitcoin rallied, real estate held.
8:03
Every single time. Do you believe we're living
8:06
through a slow financial collapse that the majority of
8:09
people don't even recognise as happening?
8:11
I do, yeah. And people kind of look around
8:13
and say why? Why does it seem like
8:14
everything's more expensive? I'm still earning money, but it
8:17
just doesn't feel like it goes as far.
8:20
And in a lot of times, they're right.
8:21
Every currency system in the world has to grow or die, at
8:24
least the way they're currently designed.
8:26
People feel it not just through taxes, but then through their
8:30
wages getting debased and their savings, if they're if they're
8:33
holding currency and bonds getting debased.
8:35
And you kind of keep, keep adding new layers to the system
8:40
until by the end it resembles theft.
8:43
The best product Coca-Cola ever sold was their bonds, not their
8:47
Coke. And what they're basically doing
8:48
is they're shorting the currency.
8:50
You know, they're literally shorting the thing that you're
8:52
holding your bank account and that you're saving in
8:56
Government's shorting it. Corporations are shorting it,
8:58
wealth individuals are shorting it.
8:59
The system is based on having people hold the currency and the
9:04
bonds while other people are literally shorting it and the
9:07
the least able to short it. Ironically, those at the at the
9:10
bottom of the income stack that they're kind of getting the full
9:13
damage of the inflation. So they're socializing the debt
9:17
that the private sector has built up onto the public to
9:22
protect the private sector to keep the economy going.
9:26
Take the risk away and and lock in all the gains you've had and
9:31
socialize the the losses. Once you get to the part where
9:34
there's this much debt on the sovereign Ledger, there's really
9:37
no way out of it other than they're going to default.
9:41
As you may notice, Lynn Alden is not excitable.
9:43
She does not yell. She does not predict things that
9:46
sound exciting on a podcast and then quietly update her website
9:49
when they don't happen. She does spreadsheets.
9:52
She's been doing spreadsheets for a long time, and for a long
9:55
time the spreadsheets have said the same thing. the United
10:00
States has $36 trillion in debt. The interest on that debt at
10:04
current rates cost more per year than the entire defense budget.
10:09
There are two options. Raise rates and watch the debt
10:12
service consume everything, or cut rates, print money and
10:16
inflate the debt away. They will print not because they
10:20
want to, but because the alternative is worse for the
10:23
people who make the decisions. Remember, past performance
10:26
doesn't equal future results or something like that.
10:29
There it is, 36 trillion up and to the right.
10:32
The line does not go down. The line has never gone down in
10:35
your lifetime. The line will not go down.
10:39
I had a neighbor the other day that said, oh, gas prices are so
10:43
high right now, they're at six dollars.
10:46
Oh my gosh. But it's going to go down,
10:48
right? I had to tell her, no, it's not
10:52
going down. It's never going down.
10:55
What that line means in practical terms is that the
10:58
government has to keep running a deficit to pay its own debts.
11:02
New money gets created to service old money.
11:04
The purchasing power of every dollar you hold shrinks a little
11:08
more every year, unless you hold something that can't be printed.
11:12
The the US wants to keep dollar reserve status as it's been
11:15
structured and it also wants to be sure its defense industrial
11:18
base and you can't do both. You have the the condition of
11:23
the second is the condition of the of the post $71 reserve
11:28
status structure is you got to offshore the defense industrial
11:31
base because you got to create the deficits to supply the
11:36
dollars and supply the risk free debt.
11:38
You know risk free debt Treasuries, you know it's
11:41
nominally risk free certainly to the world as their reserve
11:45
assets. That's the treasury as primary
11:48
reserve asset of the world is the post 71 structure.
11:50
Now doesn't mean the dollar can't be the reserve currency
11:55
still and reassure the defense industrial base, but it does
11:59
mean that the treasury has to lose as as primary reserve asset
12:04
of the world and be replaced by gold, at least in the short run,
12:08
right? Luke Groman is calling out the
12:11
BS. His words not mine.
12:13
The dollar reserve system worked when the US was the world's
12:16
largest creditor. We are now the world's largest
12:19
debtor. The system that made the dollar,
12:22
the global reserve currency was built on a foundation that no
12:25
longer exists. 0 Hedge, by the way, put it better than I can,
12:31
and I didn't think that they would ever say this.
12:32
But March 30th they said while the Iran war was still in full
12:37
swing with all other risks and UN risk assets. 0 Hedge put it
12:44
better than I can and I didn't think they would ever say this.
12:46
But on March 30th, while the Iran war is still in full swing,
12:50
with all other risk and UN risk assets sliding during the Iran
12:54
war, Bitcoin remains largely unscathed.
12:57
And despite giving up some recent gains, it's still higher
13:00
than when the bomb started. Higher than when the bomb
13:03
started. That's not an accident.
13:06
That is the thesis playing out in real time.
13:10
I want to look at this tweet for a second because Zero Hedge is
13:12
not a Bitcoin publication. It's a macro doom publication
13:16
that covers everything from oil tanker routes to derivatives
13:19
blow UPS. Their observation that every
13:22
other asset slid during the Iran war and Bitcoin didn't is very
13:26
telling. It's not a small thing.
13:28
Bitcoin used to trade like a risk asset.
13:30
When stocks went down, Bitcoin went down faster.
13:33
That correlation is breaking, and it's breaking at exactly the
13:36
moment when the macro case for hard assets is the strongest
13:40
it's been since 2020. All right, I want to pause here
13:42
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14:23
Gold moves first, then Bitcoin follows harder.
14:26
I am of the opinion that sometime in the next 6 months,
14:29
Bitcoin is going to wake up and shock everybody and that we're
14:32
going to very quickly move through this 90, through the
14:35
100, through the 124, whatever the last top was and into kind
14:39
of the 1:50 to the 200 zone. I think that's that's coming.
14:42
For months now, the global economy has been whispering a
14:45
truth most investors still don't fully appreciate.
14:48
Central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, have shifted
14:52
from tightening to sweeping easing even as inflation remains
14:56
well above target and markets are still stretched.
14:59
In December 2025, the Fed delivered its third consecutive
15:03
rate cut this year, pushing the benchmark federal funds rate
15:06
down to a new cycle low, and announced the resumption of $40
15:10
billion per month Treasury bill purchases to manage liquidity in
15:13
the system. These moves aren't isolated
15:16
technical adjustments, their signals that the era of monetary
15:20
restraint is ending and a new phase of persistent
15:22
accommodation is beginning. Few voices have warned more
15:26
forcefully about what this pivot means than Larry Leopard, author
15:29
of The Big Print and Long time Market Strategist.
15:33
Leopard argues we are not simply ending quantitative tightening,
15:36
we're at the early stages of what he calls the next big
15:39
print, a multi trillion dollar expansion of money and credit
15:42
that will define this decades macro narrative.
15:45
In his book and in his latest interview, he lays out the
15:48
framework. Now I hate to break it to you
15:50
guys, but Larry Laparde is not a Bitcoin only guy.
15:53
He runs a fund that holds gold, silver, and Bitcoin hard assets.
15:57
Generally when a hard asset generalist says Bitcoin is going
16:01
to 200 K and nothing will stop it, that means something
16:04
different than when a Bitcoin maximalist says it.
16:07
His argument is simple. When the Fed prints, and we've
16:09
established that they will, every scarce asset benefits.
16:14
Gold goes up. Real estate goes up.
16:16
Stocks go up. In nominal terms, everything
16:19
with a limited supply absorbs the new money looking for a
16:22
home. But here's the distinction that
16:24
every Bitcoin holder knows and most people miss.
16:28
Gold supply grows. Every year.
16:30
Mining companies find new deposits.
16:32
The supply isn't fixed, it's just slow.
16:35
Real estate supply grows every year.
16:37
They build new houses. Zoning laws change.
16:40
Cities expand stocks, they dilute, companies issue new
16:45
shares. But Bitcoin supply is 21 million
16:49
full stop, forever. It's not very scarce, not slow
16:53
to inflate 21 million. The number is written in the
16:57
code. Nobody can change it.
17:00
No government, no Fed, no executive order.
17:03
Remember, you can't print math. One more thing since we're here.
17:07
JD Vance, the vice president, says last week, we do not
17:10
believe Bitcoin competes with the US dollar.
17:13
Bitcoin will become a strategically important asset
17:16
for the United States. The vice president of the United
17:19
States just said Bitcoin is strategically important to the
17:22
United States. The people who have spent the
17:25
last decade calling it a scam, a bubble, a Ponzi scheme, a tool
17:29
for criminals. Well, the vice president just
17:31
told you it's strategically important.
17:34
You don't have to like him. You don't have to agree with him
17:37
on anything else, but the political alignment is now a
17:40
tailwind, not a headwind. It's a macro change.
17:44
Here's the fear and Greed index when this reads fear or extreme
17:47
fear. While the macro case for Bitcoin
17:49
has never been stronger, that is historically where the entry
17:52
point is now. I won't tell you what to do with
17:55
that information, but I'll just leave it here.
17:58
If this episode has done its job, at least a few of you are
18:00
thinking about what it actually means to hold your own Bitcoin
18:03
properly. Not on an exchange, not in a
18:06
custodial wallet, but self custody where you hold your own
18:09
keys and nobody can freeze it, nobody can confiscate it or
18:13
block your access to it. That's what the bitcoinway.com
18:16
does. Bitcoin only consultancy, full
18:19
self custody setup hardware wallet, your own node, real
18:23
cybersecurity. They also help you with a Plan B
18:26
residency in Panama for people who want to pair their sovereign
18:29
money with their sovereign lifestyle.
18:32
And if you go to thebitcoinway.com/beyond
18:35
Bitcoin, you'll get a free 30 minute consultation with no
18:38
pitch, just a conversation. That's the bitcoinway.com/beyond
18:42
Bitcoin for a free 30 minute consultation.
18:44
Also another one, Club orange.org, formerly known as
18:47
the Orange Pill app. This is the premier Bitcoin
18:49
community app. It's location based, so you can
18:52
find Bitcoiners near you, You can find Bitcoin events near you
18:55
and Bitcoin merchants, and they have 19,000 members on there in
18:59
71 countries and it's only 40 bucks a year and it filters out
19:03
everyone who shouldn't be there. I'm on there.
19:06
I'm at oceans, you can come find me.
19:07
That's OSHINS. If you're freaking odd about the
19:11
economy or you just want to talk to people who have been thinking
19:13
about this for a few years, this is where they are at
19:16
cluborange.org. Here's what I keep coming back
19:19
to every time the economy gets visibly worse, every time the
19:22
gas prices spike and the layoffs start, the normal people begin
19:26
to start feeling the friction of everyday life.
19:30
The same conversation happens. Is this the bottom?
19:33
Should I be worried? Is this time different?
19:37
And every time, the Bitcoin answer is the same.
19:39
The system that created the problem can't fix the problem.
19:42
It can delay it, but it can't fix the problem.
19:44
It can print money and temporarily paper over it, but
19:47
it can't fix the problem. It can fight wars for oil and
19:51
call it national security, but it can't fix the problem.
19:55
You can't solve a debt problem with more debt unless you're
19:59
Robert Kiyosaki. Bitcoin doesn't care. 21
20:02
million. The math doesn't negotiate.
20:05
Study Bitcoin now. And the question I'll leave you
20:08
with if Theo Von is freaking out about the economy on Joe Rogan
20:12
in front of 20 million people. How far away is the rest of the
20:16
world from asking what Bitcoin actually is?
20:19
Thank you so much for watching this video.
20:21
If you like what you see and you want to see more, make sure you
20:22
hit that like button below. Or you can subscribe to the
20:24
simply Bitcoin channel for more content like this.
20:27
We're coming out with it every single day of the week, folks.
20:29
Also, do not forget to hit that notification bell or leave us a
20:32
comment, whatever you want to do.
20:33
If you want to reach out to me directly, I'm at run dance
20:37
Bitcoin on X otherwise I'm oceans.
20:39
This is beyond Bitcoin. Until next time.