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North Korea just made China back down. Is Trump taking note? · The Morning Edition

0:07
S1: A visit this week from Chinese leader XI Jinping to
0:09
S1: North Korea has put the world on notice. Kim Jong
0:13
S1: un's nuclear program and ambitions are stronger than ever. But
0:17
S1: has Donald Trump taken notice? I'm Samantha Selinger Morris, and
0:21
S1: you're listening to The Morning Edition from The Age and
0:24
S1: The Sydney Morning Herald. Today, international and political editor Peter
0:29
S1: Hartcher on how North Korea has gone from global pariah
0:33
S1: to earning respect from some of the world's great capitals. Hey, Peter.
0:41
S2: Hello, Samantha.
0:42
S1: Welcome back.
0:43
S2: A pleasure.
0:44
S1: Okay, so I have to ask you this, because a
0:47
S1: lot of us have been pretty focused on Iran's nuclear facilities.
0:51
S1: Are they obliterated? Are they not? And your latest column
0:53
S1: would suggest that maybe we should be looking at another
0:56
S1: country's nuclear facilities. And perhaps we've dropped the ball. Or
1:01
S1: have we dropped the ball?
1:03
S2: Well, a brief word on Iran. The International Atomic Energy
1:07
S2: Agency said in early March that there was no sign
1:11
S2: whatsoever that they were moving to resume their nuclear program.
1:17
S2: And Trump's own director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, in
1:21
S2: written testimony to the Senate, said there was no evidence
1:24
S2: of any Iranian intention or progress towards nuclear enrichment. So
1:31
S2: this is an ex post facto justification Trump has come
1:34
S2: up with for this invasion. Let's just be clear about that.
1:37
S2: There is no current threat from Iran with nuclear weaponry. However,
1:44
S2: as you say, another country which is in the news
1:46
S2: this week, XI Jinping, China's president, visited North Korea. Now,
1:51
S2: North Korea is a country that actually has. On an
1:55
S2: estimate produced this week by the Stockholm Institute for International Peace,
1:59
S2: which is a very credible, serious research outfit. They've estimated
2:04
S2: that North Korea has about 60 active nuclear warheads already.
2:08
S2: It has a huge stockpile of missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles,
2:13
S2: to give it maximum reach. And according to the Stockholm Institute,
2:17
S2: it has potential to make another 30 nuclear warheads with
2:20
S2: its existing stocks of uranium. So it's a rogue nuclear power.
2:26
S2: It's a new ish nuclear power, and it's a real
2:29
S2: nuclear threat that almost every week threatens to attack the US,
2:35
S2: the US's so-called running dog, its allies, South Korea, Japan
2:39
S2: or anyone else it doesn't like very much. And I
2:42
S2: just add that since its recent tests of ICBMs, we
2:45
S2: know it has missile reach to strike Australia if it
2:49
S2: chooses as well.
2:50
S1: Okay. So why then is Donald Trump not talking about
2:53
S1: North Korea, or is he. And I've just missed it.
2:56
S2: You haven't missed it. The preoccupation very much has been
2:59
S2: with Iran.
3:00
S1: Okay.
3:00
S2: He did show interest in the North Korean problem during
3:04
S2: his first term. You might remember Trump's very well publicized
3:08
S2: visit to the DMZ, the demilitarized zone between North and
3:12
S2: South Korea that he made in 20 1819. There were
3:16
S2: three meetings with Kim Jong un. So Trump showed a
3:20
S2: lot of interest in that time. He said he fell
3:23
S2: in love with Kim Jong un. I'm not kidding. He
3:26
S2: said that.
3:26
S1: He said they'd written love letters.
3:27
S2: They said they'd exchanged love letters. And there was something
3:29
S2: like dozens of letters between the two of them. However,
3:33
S2: all of that attention from Trump to what he called
3:36
S2: Little Rocket Man resulted in zero agreement. North Korea made
3:41
S2: no concessions on its nuclear program. Trump was unable to
3:45
S2: change his mind, and Trump effectively just walked away from
3:48
S2: the problem and hasn't returned to it since. That was 2017,
3:53
S2: and since then Little Rocket Man has built up more rockets,
3:58
S2: more nuclear capability, and just continued. And this week, in fact,
4:04
S2: announced a ramping up of its missile production by 250%
4:09
S2: over the next five years. So Trump failed, lost interest
4:14
S2: and walked away, and instead has turned his attention to Iran.
4:19
S2: I just add a final point, which is that the, um,
4:22
S2: the North Korean leader, Kim Jong un, this week pointed
4:26
S2: out that the US was attacking Iran because Iran didn't
4:30
S2: have nuclear weapons and nobody was attacking North Korea.
4:34
S1: So it's learned its lesson.
4:35
S2: Yes. Meanwhile, another case study in nuclear weapons. And what
4:39
S2: happens when you do and don't have them is that
4:41
S2: the Ukrainians had nuclear weapons, a legacy of their time
4:44
S2: as a Soviet state. And at the end of the
4:46
S2: Cold War, they had the world's third biggest stockpile. They
4:49
S2: handed over their nukes to Russia in exchange for a
4:52
S2: security guarantee from Moscow, which obviously has not proved.
4:57
S1: Effective.
4:57
S2: Terribly effective if it had kept the nuclear weapons. The
5:00
S2: consensus in Kyiv today is that Russia would not be attacking.
5:04
S1: Okay, so Trump, you know, walked away with no agreement
5:07
S1: with North Korea when he was interested in this years ago.
5:10
S1: And that brings us to this week because like you said,
5:12
S1: Chinese leader XI Jinping has had a two day visit
5:14
S1: to North Korea. So tell us the significance of this,
5:17
S1: because I did think it was interesting that, as I
5:19
S1: understand it, usually it's Kim Jong un visiting XI Jinping
5:23
S1: in China rather than the other way around. And this time,
5:25
S1: of course, the Chinese leader's gone to North Korea. Is
5:27
S1: that a signal of North Korea's ascendance? Like, what is
5:30
S1: the significance of this meeting?
5:32
S2: It is a sign that XI Jinping feels obliged, for
5:35
S2: the first time in seven years to travel to North Korea.
5:40
S2: It is a sign that he very much thinks North
5:42
S2: Korea is relevant and in play at the moment. And
5:47
S2: the reason that North Korea is in play is that
5:50
S2: the new bromance between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong un
5:55
S2: has put it in play. North Korea had become. It
5:59
S2: has its. Had phases of being a pariah state since 2017,
6:04
S2: when North Korea conducted its sixth at biggest and most
6:08
S2: intimidating nuclear test plus demonstrated its first successful launch of
6:13
S2: an intercontinental ballistic missile. Since that time, 2000. And it
6:17
S2: also announced that it had acquired the ability to build
6:20
S2: a thermonuclear device. Since that time, it's been an international pariah.
6:24
S2: Everybody has had sanctions on it, including the Russians. And
6:28
S2: the Chinese have really scaled back their their dealings with
6:31
S2: the country as well. But when Vladimir Putin found himself
6:37
S2: bogged down in Ukraine, running out of money, running out
6:40
S2: of ammunition, running out of soldiers, he turned to North
6:43
S2: Korea for help. And the North Koreans, Kim Jong un
6:46
S2: was only too happy to oblige. He supplied, uh, soldiers.
6:51
S2: He supplied an estimated 15 million artillery shells and very
6:56
S2: well publicized supply of up to 21,000 North Korean soldiers
7:00
S2: fighting against the Ukrainians for the Russians. In return, the
7:06
S2: Russians have returned the favor with some cash. But more
7:10
S2: valuable for the North Koreans is food, fuel and nuclear
7:15
S2: and missile technology at a more sophisticated level than the
7:18
S2: North Koreans already had. The value. The total value of
7:22
S2: this has been estimated by a South Korean think tank
7:25
S2: at between about 5 billion USD and 10 billion USD, which.
7:30
S2: For a country which has essentially no modern economy of
7:34
S2: any scale to speak of, that is a huge injection
7:38
S2: of cash. And the indications that Pyongyang has been moving
7:42
S2: closer to Moscow have caught XI Jinping's attention. XI Jinping
7:46
S2: invited Kim Jong UN to Beijing last year and feted him,
7:51
S2: and now has returned the visit. So it's very much
7:54
S2: an effort by XI Jinping to reassert the Chinese sphere
8:01
S2: of influence in and over North Korea.
8:05
S1: So can you just walk us through, just briefly, why
8:07
S1: does China not want North Korea to have nuclear weapons?
8:10
S1: Because they are allies. Can you just walk us through
8:13
S1: that really briefly?
8:14
S2: Sure. Uh, well, who wants an unpredictable rogue nuclear state
8:20
S2: on their border? The Chinese have already got to put
8:23
S2: up with the Russians on one border with their nuclear weapons.
8:27
S2: So North Korea to the Chinese, while the propaganda is
8:30
S2: all about, you know, the fraternal communist bond and socialist
8:34
S2: solidarity and the bond, as XI Jinping and Kim Jong
8:37
S2: UN put it this week. Forged in blood because of
8:40
S2: the Korean War. That's the propaganda. But the reality is
8:43
S2: China has always been concerned about this rogue regime. It's
8:47
S2: a dynastic communist regime. The current ruler is the grandson
8:52
S2: of the founder. This is the third generation. And Kim
8:55
S2: Jong UN has nominated his young daughter as the next leader.
8:59
S2: This is not communism. This is more like a, you know,
9:02
S2: a monarchy than a than a communist ideal. And North
9:07
S2: Korea has proved again and again to be resistant to
9:11
S2: China's ideas and influences. The Chinese for many years have
9:15
S2: kept North Korea afloat with suppliers of oil, without which
9:19
S2: its economy would have collapsed entirely just to keep it
9:23
S2: as a functioning state. So it didn't didn't collapse and
9:25
S2: precipitate mass exodus of refugees across the border into China.
9:30
S2: So in between keeping it just solvent and trying to
9:33
S2: contain its nuclear program, the Chinese Communist Party has been
9:37
S2: trying to manage this small, much smaller state forever since
9:41
S2: it started essentially in 1948, Uh, 49 but it's, um,
9:45
S2: it's had limited success. And now XI Jinping has decided, well,
9:48
S2: if I can't suppress them, I have to court them.
9:51
S2: Thanks to my friend Vladimir Putin's attentions.
9:55
S1: After the break.
9:56
S2: This is the story with nuclear weapons and nuclear proliferation.
10:00
S2: You know, it's like cockroaches. You see one, and pretty
10:02
S2: soon you're going to see more because it encourages, panics,
10:06
S2: intimidates other states into responding in kind.
10:17
S1: And that shift, I think, is, is borne out by
10:20
S1: what the Chinese summary of this latest visit was, because
10:22
S1: it made no mention of the nuclear program, which I
10:25
S1: think is an anomaly, because the two sides, as I
10:27
S1: understand it, it used to be standard that they were
10:29
S1: statements about working towards ending the nuclear program that used
10:32
S1: to be the standard for them, both during diplomatic engagements,
10:35
S1: so that that's not there any longer. I think really
10:38
S1: sort of points to that shift. So I guess what's
10:40
S1: the upshot of this visit between Kim Jong UN and
10:43
S1: XI Jinping. They said that they are going to be
10:45
S1: working to expand practical cooperation between the two countries. So
10:49
S1: what might that look like?
10:51
S2: Yes, XI Jinping has totally surrendered on China's years long
10:56
S2: exhortations to North Korea to give up its nuclear program.
11:00
S2: And just in case XI Jinping had the least intention
11:03
S2: of bringing this up at his summit with Kim Jong un,
11:06
S2: two days before XI Jinping arrived, Kim Jong un visited
11:10
S2: a nuclear processing research facility. The day before he arrived,
11:16
S2: he he visited a missile and munitions factory, which makes
11:21
S2: ballistic missiles as well as cruise missiles, and announced this
11:24
S2: massive ramp up of 250% in their missile production. Plus,
11:28
S2: he sent his sister out to give a speech about
11:30
S2: repeating his own line that the nuclear program is irreversible.
11:34
S2: She said this is a line of zero retreat. This
11:37
S2: is our national sovereignty guarantee. You know the whole bit.
11:41
S2: It couldn't have been a more emphatic way of saying
11:43
S2: to XI Jinping, do not talk nukes to me. And
11:48
S2: it looks like XI Jinping obliged, because there's no reference
11:50
S2: in any public statement to concern about North Korea's program.
11:55
S2: So in that sense, that's a big win for North
11:58
S2: Korea to have China tacitly, implicitly accept its new status
12:03
S2: as a serious nuclear power. But the win for XI Jinping,
12:08
S2: on the other hand, was to have Kim Jong un
12:12
S2: say that the phrase was, China is our number one
12:17
S2: strategic priority. Right. So that's to elevate the relationship with
12:22
S2: China above that with Russia. That's what XI Jinping wanted
12:25
S2: in terms of practical cooperation. As you say, they trade
12:29
S2: a little bit between the two countries already. China and
12:31
S2: North Korea. But it's it's pitiful in terms of international trade.
12:35
S2: It's about half 1 billion USD worth two way trade,
12:39
S2: which is not much. China sells North Korea a bunch
12:44
S2: of machinery, sophisticated tools, as well as a bit of
12:50
S2: consumer stuff. The North Koreans sell tungsten is their big one.
12:55
S2: Ores and human hair products like wigs, fake eyelashes, eyebrows.
13:02
S2: Basically a trade in body parts because they haven't got
13:04
S2: much else to sell. And it's so tragic. You know, Samantha,
13:09
S2: just look across the border. The other Korea is one
13:13
S2: of the richest and freest countries in the world. And
13:15
S2: here's North Korea, where its people are perpetually undernourished. The
13:19
S2: World Health Organization, World Food Organization told us just again
13:23
S2: this year, had a massive famine in the 90s that
13:26
S2: killed an estimated 2 million people in the 90s. There
13:29
S2: was absolutely no need for that. But their Jewish policy
13:33
S2: of communist self-reliance and autarky has is a big thing. Plus,
13:39
S2: the state has turned all its resources to armaments and
13:41
S2: nuclear and missile programs. So the people, the people have
13:46
S2: really suffered. And it's so unnecessary. It's really such a
13:49
S2: tragedy for those poor people. XI Jinping is promising a
13:53
S2: new investment in North Korea and new cooperation in agriculture,
13:58
S2: in military exchange and in infrastructure. Presumably into North Korea.
14:05
S2: It remains a peculiarly, um, it's it's going too far
14:10
S2: to say isolated, but it is a pretty lonely. Putin's
14:15
S2: brought it back into play. XI Jinping has joined the game.
14:18
S1: Well, this is what I wanted to ask you, Peter.
14:19
S1: I've got a double edged question. So were you surprised
14:22
S1: that for the first time, I think in seven years,
14:24
S1: that XI Jinping declined to pressure North Korea to not
14:27
S1: continue its nuclear program? And the other side of that
14:30
S1: question is, could this embolden other countries that feel threatened
14:33
S1: by China? Hey, you know, we should learn the lesson
14:37
S1: that North Korea is learning, which it's learned from Iran,
14:39
S1: which has learned from Ukraine, which is we need nukes to.
14:42
S2: The reality that XI Jinping has accepted of North Korea
14:47
S2: as a nuclear state, I think is is simply an
14:50
S2: acknowledgment that he he's failed for years to change their
14:54
S2: mind on just about anything. So he's he's gone with
14:58
S2: he's turned the, you know, the inevitable into a virtue,
15:01
S2: I suppose. And to improve the relationship. Mhm. Was that
15:04
S2: a surprise? Um, not entirely, but the, the cutting edge
15:09
S2: of that question is what's the future? If these are
15:12
S2: the incentives and responses that come out of these developments? Well,
15:18
S2: the most immediate is thinking in Seoul. The South Korean
15:22
S2: government and people are in an active debate about whether
15:25
S2: they need to develop their own nuclear capability to defend
15:28
S2: against and deter North Korea and China. About seven out
15:32
S2: of ten South Koreans are in favor of them developing
15:35
S2: their own nukes. Partly that's because nobody trusts the US
15:39
S2: any longer. With Trump in charge. Trump's opposed to the
15:41
S2: US is supposed to provide the nuclear umbrella, but nobody
15:45
S2: trusts that anymore. So South Korea is on a very
15:47
S2: interesting cusp about how to respond to all this. Japan
15:52
S2: is having a similar debate, not as advanced. And the
15:54
S2: public there is against the idea, but the ruling party,
15:56
S2: the Liberal Democratic Party and the Prime Minister, Takaichi, are
16:00
S2: in favor of at least having a very serious look
16:05
S2: at Japan going nuclear. And then, of course, you know,
16:10
S2: this is the story with nuclear weapons and nuclear proliferation.
16:15
S2: You know, it's like cockroaches. You see one, and pretty
16:17
S2: soon you're going to see more because it encourages and panics,
16:22
S2: intimidates other states into responding in kind. And this is
16:26
S2: a question of nuclear proliferation that will, will, will spread outwards.
16:30
S2: Has has continued spreading outwards and will continue from from
16:33
S2: these developments.
16:34
S1: Okay. Well, then, Peter, I want to bring you back
16:36
S1: to the beginning of our conversation when we were talking
16:39
S1: about how Trump paid attention, was a bit concerned about
16:41
S1: Korea and his first term and has sort of dropped
16:43
S1: that even though, as you've mentioned, uh, this enemy of
16:47
S1: the U.S., North Korea has got 60 warheads and is
16:49
S1: capable of making 30 more, I believe it's got missiles
16:52
S1: that can hit the states. It does. So is there
16:55
S1: any suggestion that Donald Trump is taking notice of this,
16:58
S1: you know, back down from XI Jinping this week, this,
17:00
S1: you know, historic visit? And yeah. Is he worried? Is
17:03
S1: he going to do something about it?
17:05
S2: Um, hard to be sure. We're talking about Donald Trump here, but, uh,
17:09
S2: there are rumors everywhere, um, that Trump is planning, uh,
17:14
S2: contact with Kim Jong un and would like to set
17:16
S2: up a meeting. What he has in mind exactly, I
17:19
S2: don't know, but there is. Talk about it. It would
17:23
S2: be interesting to see whether Kim Jong UN accepts a
17:26
S2: meeting with Trump at this point, unless Trump is prepared
17:29
S2: to acknowledge his country, North Korea, as a nuclear power.
17:34
S2: The incentives have switched. He's feeling emboldened. He's got a
17:37
S2: full nuclear arsenal. Uh, he might not feel any commitment,
17:42
S2: any need, uh, to butter up Donald Trump any longer.
17:46
S2: We'll see.
17:47
S1: So does that mean that Trump has not conceded that
17:50
S1: that that North Korea is a nuclear nation?
17:52
S2: Trump has not yet conceded publicly, um, that it is
17:57
S2: a nuclear power. He's said that, you know, he's worried
18:01
S2: about them and worried about their potential. But, uh, he doesn't,
18:05
S2: I suppose he doesn't want to acknowledge that the outcome
18:08
S2: he sought, which was to denuclearize, has failed. Notably when
18:13
S2: Donald Trump met XI Jinping last month. Uh, the Americans
18:17
S2: produced a readout of the meeting saying that the two
18:20
S2: leaders had agreed on the need to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.
18:25
S2: In other words, North Korea has to lose its nukes.
18:28
S2: The Chinese side. No such reference. So it's clearly on
18:32
S2: the mind of the US. It's in that document. But
18:36
S2: the Chinese now have surrendered to the reality. And it
18:40
S2: remains to be seen what Donald Trump will have to
18:42
S2: say about it.
18:42
S1: So that would suggest denial, not just not just on
18:45
S1: the mind of America, but perhaps denial that it is
18:47
S1: a nuclear power.
18:48
S2: It suggests that it's still the Trump, uh, intention to
18:53
S2: somehow persuade Kim Jong un to give up, give up
18:56
S2: his nuclear toys and all the evidence since they began
19:01
S2: their nuclear program under his father is that it will fail.
19:05
S2: Nothing has succeeded in stopping or deterring or even really
19:08
S2: slowing their nuclear program.
19:11
S1: Well, thank you so much, Peter, as always.
19:13
S2: Pleasure, Samantha.
19:18
S1: In other news today, a push to improve access to
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S1: more at the age.com.au or smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced
20:01
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