Latest / Toadstool Sports / Thursday BEST BETS | Is it Rigged? | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 7/9/26

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Thursday BEST BETS | Is it Rigged? | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 7/9/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: Hole in your checks.
• 0:21
  Speaker 3: Black coffee on the felt.
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: Man, you look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips.
• 0:31
  Speaker 4: Like they made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Your name still means something in somebody for show. Put
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: No hold on, hold on nothing nice, No.
• 0:58
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on me, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on, stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: Now, what's up?
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Everybody?
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: It's towed? Back with you with toadstool Sports. Uh, Thursday,
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: July ninth, Is that what it is? I don't know?
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: Two and one on the show yesterday we won with
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: the Cincinnati Reds verse five. They were losing two to
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: nothing in the third inning or something, and they tied
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: the game and then they put up I think five
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: runs in the fourth inning, seven to two, and then
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: never looked back. They won the full game. We had
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: them in the first five, though, so they needed to
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: get some runs there immediately, which they did. Yeah, I
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: mean back you, Chase Burns. We got it done. The
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: under in the Anaheim Texas game did not go correctly.
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: Mackenzie gore completely lost, and I mean that was a
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: one nothing game I think into the fourth inning, I
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: want to say, and then I think it was still
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: three to nothing into the fifth and we needed to
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: avoid that last run which would have pushed it, and
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: instead Core I think just completely imploded. I don't know
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: what that was. That was not good. The WNBA was
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: an easy win with the La La Sparks. They had
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: a huge second quarter, they took the lead, and then
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: I think they just were winning out right for the
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: rest of the game. I'm pretty sure. So you know,
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: the number had dropped. The number was like six and
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: a half. You never got a better number on it,
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: like six six and a half whatever it was. I
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: give it out at seven and a half on the show.
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: But luckily it didn't matter every number one. They won outright.
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: So whatever. Caitlyn Clark played, but she only played nineteen minutes,
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: So that's another thing like when a That's another reason
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: the reverse injured player theory works because you don't even
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: know if that player is gonna play a full compliment
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: of minutes, and she pretty much didn't. Especially the game
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: was out of hand. Basically though, already, so I think
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: they probably just gave her some rest for that reason too,
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: because they weren't gonna win that game. So I don't
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: know what else to say about that. I don't like
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: today's board very much. I'm gonna have two baseball plays.
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: Hopefully I'm picking the right ones. I have a couple
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: other a couple other opinions. I don't know, McAdoo, what's up? Uh? Yeah,
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: I can't really deliver bangers. I have no voice. I
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: don't know what to do about any of this, dirty sock?
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: What's up? I'm calling everybody in the chat the tads
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: because they're tadpoles. What are you talking? Anaheim sucks? What
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: are you talking about it? Texas was the problem with that?
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: I had the first five under Mackenzie Gore? Is the
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: main reason that game lost? Right?
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: Was it?
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: Am I wrong about that? Texas lost the game? They
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: got absolutely bombed in that game? What are you talking about? All? Right?
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: Where am I at? I'm not even in the right
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: tab here. We have a lot of afternoon baseball here.
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: I believe both of my players are gonna be in
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: the evening though. Yeah, so I'm skipping the afternoon plays
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: or the afternoon games, but obviously I'm gonna talk about them.
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: Atlanta and Pittsburgh is the first game up early at
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: twelve thirty five Eastern. Of course, all these series are
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: pretty much ending, except there's one series that's starting tonight,
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: which is strange, I guess, And then we're gonna have
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: a weekend series beginning for all these teams. Atlanta Pittsburgh
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: has split the series so far. Probably you're gonna see
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: both teams show up and try to win the series.
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: Atlanta won three to not thing yesterday, so maybe a
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: bounce back for Pittsburgh, though I don't really think they
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: have a great uh edge in this game. Starting pitching wise,
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: Atlanta has the better bullpen. They used four guys out
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: of it yesterday. Pittsburgh used three. Pittsburgh is not a
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: good bullpen. Their twenty second. Atlanta is still number one,
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: although they've fallen behind the Yankees in era.
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: Uh.
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: Atlanta has not been doing well offensively recently. They're thirteenth,
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: and then, uh, where's Pittsburgh got second? Yeah, Pittsburgh's second.
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh has the better offense. Bryce Elder is pitching for Atlanta.
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: He's been okay overall in the season four point oh
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: one ERA one point two to three whip, he's not
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: good on the road, five point one five road ERA.
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: He was not good in three straight starts, and then
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: I think they I don't know what they did, but
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: they gave him extra rest. Basically, they pushed him back.
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: He hasn't pitched since June twenty seventh, and now they're
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: bringing him back. And his last three starts were all
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: pretty bad. So what are we gonna do about this?
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: Two of those are against bad offenses to the Mets
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: in San Francisco, both of those on the road. So
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: Elder is not in good form right now. However, he
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: actually does really well against Pittsburgh thirty seven at bats
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: against them, one to eight average, allowed, three sixty four ohps,
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: ten to three strikeout walk ratio. So I don't know
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: what to do with Elder here because he's in horrible
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: form right now. They've pushed him back, and I don't
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: know if that's gonna help him or hurt him. Because
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: these pitchers usually, I say, they like to be on
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: a schedule, and if you throw them up the schedule,
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: it might not be good. But he has good matchup
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: numbers here. However, Pittsburgh is a very capable offense, so
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: I mean they could do damage here. Mitch Keller is
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: pitching for Pittsburgh. He has not been good recently. Five
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: point h two ERA, one point three to one whip.
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: He's really bad at home five point five homy ra
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: he was, He's been I guess a little bit better
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: last four starts if you look at them just as
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: a whole. Last time out, he wasn't really that good
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: at Washington, but Washington's a really good offense. Numbers against
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: Atlanta not good, and they have a lot of experience
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: against them. One hundred and three at bats twenty two
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: to eleven, so I got walk ratio three forty average,
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: nine to twenty eight ops. None of those numbers are good.
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: I think I probably have to lean Atlanta here. But
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: they're kind of public seventy two percent of the tickets,
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: eighty one percent of the cash on them. Maybe it
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: looks too easy to play them because they have the
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: better record. They're at minus one twenty, although maybe Pittsburgh
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: gets a little bit of public traction because they have
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: the better offense. Although they were they were not that yesterday.
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: I believe right or well, neither offense was good yesterday.
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: I don't know what I'm saying, Uh yeah, maybe a
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: slight lean Atlanta. I mean, the over seems like it
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: might be worth considering here. I mean, you do not
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: have elite starters in this game. Nine and a half
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: is the total, so it's high. It's high for a reason,
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: Like I usually say. He was back in the under
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: like pretty significantly here though, so market Reed is saying under.
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man, And maybe the better way to
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: play that is to just play Atlanta full game. You
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: get the better starting pitcher, probably at least the better matchup,
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: you get the better bullpen. I don't love it though.
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: This next game I had more of an opinion on.
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: I consider putting this on my card. Kansas City and
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: the Mets. These teams have split the series so far
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: as well. The Mets got the win yesterday. I was
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: correct about that on the show. I had to lean
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: towards the Mets yesterday. It was gonna be a bullpen
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: game for Kansas City yesterday. Basically, that's not what they're
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: doing today. They're going with Walker, who is maybe their
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: best pitcher, but I might be inclined to go against
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: him in this game today. Kansas City used a ton
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: of their bullpen yesterday, and their bullpen is awful to
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: begin with. They had a bullpen game yesterday. These five
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: guys out of it. Their bullpen is extremely unrest This
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: is a bullpen you need to fade or avoid here.
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: Mets bullpen has not been pitching well recently either. They
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: used three guys yesterday. Mets have fallen down to ninth
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: in the bullpen standings here arranging it by whip, Kansas
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: City is dead last hitting wise, neither team is good.
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: Mets are twenty eighth. Royals actually did move up a
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: little bit. There's sixteenth. The Royals don't hit well on
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: the road. However, you know, I'm I might be more
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: inclined to think they might be able to score some
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: runs here. Though. Michael Walker is pitching for the Royals.
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: Like I said, he is good three point four to
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: five ERA, one point one six whip. He is not
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: as good on the road three point sixty seven Roadyral though,
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: that's still pretty good, but he is a little bit
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: better at home. He's pitching well recently, you know, going
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: all the way back through the beginning of May, hasn't
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: a lot more than four and runs in any of
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: his starts. He's got pretty good command numbers here, very
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: low walk numbers. He's got low hit rate in the season,
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: low walk rate, strike out rates not that good, but
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: that's not exactly what he does. His overall numbers against
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: the Mets, though, are not good. In sixty two at
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: bats three fifty five average, nine H three oh ps,
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: ten to five strike out walk ratio, those numbers are
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: not good. He's going up against Sean Manaia, although I
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: would mention that the Mets might put an opener in
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: front of him. So if you're gonna play this game,
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: I would pick walker must start. But well, actually, the
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: way that I'm gonna play this, I might just say
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: pick action, because if Walka doesn't start, it can only
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: get worse for the Royals, you know what I mean.
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: And I think it's gonna be either Manaiah is gonna
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: start for the Mets, or they're gonna put an opener
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: in front of him. I like the over in this game,
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: if that wasn't obvious already, So I think if you
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: play this game, he should just do it action just
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: to make sure that it would count. Because it's either
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: gonna be Manaia or an opener in front of them,
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: And again Walker's probably gonna pitch, but if they picked
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: somebody else to pitch, probably it'll be a downgrade. Manaia
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: has not been very good five point one sixty RA,
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: one point three to seven whip. He's slightly worse at
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: home five point three to four home era. I mean,
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: he hasn't exactly been an awful as a starter, but
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: he doesn't really go that deep into these outings. He's
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: pitched out of the bullpen for a bit this year too.
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: He's got a somewhat high hit rate. His walk rate
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: is a little bit questionable as well. His strikeout rate
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: is okay, very very mediocre for the most part. Numbers
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: against Kansas City not good, and sixty two at bats
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: two ninety average, eight sixty six ops, twenty to four
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio. None of that is good. So again,
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: over would be the way I would go with this game.
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: Whereas this it's got to be interleague fifty nine percent
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: of tickets, eighty seven percent of the cash on the
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: over nine and it is juice to the over. This
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: one almost made the cut for me. I like it. Yeah,
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: I would just play at action and go over the total.
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: That's what I would do in that one. Money is
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: back in Kansas City, which makes sense. I mean, Walka
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: is the better pitcher here, so if that's pretty much why.
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: But if I was gonna take Kansas City, I would
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: not play their bullpen. You cannot do anything with their
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: bullpen here. So Kansas City first five if you're gonna
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: play Kansas City here. But I think the over is
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: the way better way to play that game. Mets have
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: fifty one percent of the tickets Mets slightly public here,
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: seventy percent of the cash on the Royals. So the
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: money is backing the Royals there by the way, because
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: I forgot to do this overall overview, Bryce Elder just
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: going back to that Braves game real quick, does have
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: a low hit rate. His walk rate is actually okay,
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: and his strikeout rate is low. Doesn't really strike guys out.
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: Mitch Keller not much of a strikeout guy either. He's
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: got a mediocre hit rate. I would say his walk
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: rate's not too bad. Strike out rate very low though,
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: so you don't really have strikeout pitchers going on in
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: that game. Next game is Yankees Tampa Bay. Yankees do
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: not have a a starting pitcher decided here. It looks
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: like it'll be maybe a bullpen game because the last
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: time this spot in the rotation came up for them,
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: they used Brandon Beck and it did not go well.
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: They tried to use him as a starter, So it
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: might be him again. It might be a bullpen game.
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: It might be a spot started. They might bring up
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: Elmer again. Elma Rodriguez. I have no idea what the
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: Yankees are gonna do, but whatever they do, it's probably
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: not gonna be as good as Drassmussen, who was on
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: the other side here for Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay has
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: won two out of the three games in the series.
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: They won yesterday three to nothing. Yankees have not done
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: well in Tampa Bay this year. In fact, Tampa Bay
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: is five to one in their home games against the
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: Yankees this year, and again, this does not look like
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: a particularly good setup for the Yankees here. Max Freed
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: is injured and Carlos Redon I think is injured. So
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: the Yankees are you know, they're hurting for starting pitching
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: right now. Yankees bullpen has been good though, and the
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: onliest two guys yesterday, so their bullpen should be good
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: here Timpa Bay only is two as well. Their bullpen
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: is not that good though, Tampa's ranked seventh in bullpen,
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: but I just I know. I mean, I think whip
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: is a better indicator than E ray, but their E
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: ray is not good, so I consider them to be
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: like a mediocre bullpen. Yankees are the number two bullpen,
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay seven, So yeah, Yankees are the better bullpen.
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: Yankees are the better offense too. They ranked ninth right now,
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: tied with the A's. Yankees have not been good recently offensively,
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: and obviously they didn't even score any runs yesterday. Tampa
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: Bay is twelfth in offense. Like I said, Yankees don't
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: know who their starter is gonna be, but whatever they do,
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: I don't think it's gonna be that great. And they
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: have to go up against Drew Rasmussen, who is probably
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: the best starter for Tampa Bay two point seven to eighty.
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: RA point nine whip better at home as well, two
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: point five three home. He ra wasn't really good last
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: time out at Houston, but I think he got a
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: little bit unlucky, like basically every hit that he allowed
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: turn into a run, so I think maybe give him
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: a pass for that. He had one really good start
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: against the Yankees earlier this year here in Tampa. He
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: one hit, shutout them through six innings, gave up no
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: walks and seven strikeouts. Rasmussen's got a low hit rate,
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: low walk rate, He's not putting guys on base at all.
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: His strikeout rate is pretty decent as well, and he
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: does well against the Yankees historically. They have ninety eight
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: at bats against him, and he has had the upper
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: hand one sixty three average allowed, four fifty four ops,
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: thirty four to seven strikeout walk ratio. All of that
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: is good, so I would lean towards Rasmussen pitching well
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: in this game. The totals really low at seven and
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: a half, so it's kind of expecting that the Yankees
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: pitching is somehow going to do well here. Money is
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: back in the over though, over the seven and a half,
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: for whatever that's worth. I like Tampa Bay in this one,
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: but the money is not agreeing with it at all.
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: I think maybe part of it is the price, Like
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: you're getting the Yankees as a bigger underdog than you're
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: gonna get them all year. Pretty much, uh seventy eight
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: percent of the ticket seventy two percent of the cash
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: on Tampa Bay. You know, I gave you guys the
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: Yankees in the first game of the series, the only
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: game that they won, and they were a slight underdog
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: in that game. But some of that was the situation,
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: and it was because Schlitzler was on the mound. I
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: cannot back the Yankees with this uh pitching set up here.
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: But I mean you could probably argue this value with
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: the Yankees because again there I still think they're the
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: best team in the American League and you're never gonna
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: get them as an underdog this big again, probably on
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: the course of the season, unless they're playing like at
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: LA or something like that. So the price at minus
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: one sixty is probably too high on Tampa. But to me,
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: it seems like Tampa has enough advantages they should win
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: the game. You could play Tampa first five, by the way,
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: because the Yankees do have a bullpen edge, So maybe
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: that is actually the best way to play this. Might
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: be Tampa first five, lay the half run with Tampa
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: Bay in the first five. I think that might be
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: the best way to play that game. Probably, Yeah, Tad's Gerald,
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: what's up? I'm all right? I don't get it, but
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: all right, Cubs at Baltimore. I was correct on my
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: read of that game yesterday too, with the over which
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: I thought was the better way to play that game yesterday.
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: Baltimore might show up because they're one of those teams
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: that's trying to avoid getting swept at home. And you
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: know I talk about that, teams that are trying to
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: avoid getting swept, especially at home, usually show up with motivation.
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: And Baltimore happens to be favored here and facing a
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: really bad starting pitcher on the Cubs side, so some
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: things look all right for Baltimore here. Baltimore used four
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: relief pitchers yesterday. The Cubs used four as well. The
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: Cubs are the better bullpenal they haven't been that good recently.
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: They're a twelve, Baltimore fourteenth. I still think the Cubs
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: are the better bullpen, though Cubs have the better offense.
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: Their fifth Baltimore is seventeenth. Right now, we're also like
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: going with this. I was gonna say, oh yeah, I
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: wanted to look at who the who are the Cubs
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: playing next, right, because when you're looking at playing a
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: team to avoid a sweep, you want to, you know,
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: see if that team that you might play against has
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: a look ahead the Cubs, you know, they're playing the
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: Reds next. I don't know. It is a divisional game
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: and it is an interesting starting pitching matchup in that
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: game tomorrow, so maybe a look ahead there. I don't know.
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: But this pitching matchup here, you know, doesn't look good
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: for the Cubs because they're going with David Peterson, my
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: favorite six point seven five ERA one point six to
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: seven whip. This guy. He is not good. Of course,
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: He's spend most of the season with the Mats. He's
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: only made two starts with the Cubs so far. He's
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: been better on the road, so I'll give him that
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: four point seven to six. Roady Ray. He made one
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: decent start with the Cubs against Milwaukee, and then last
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: time out against Saint Louis, which was at home, he
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: was absolutely terrible. What will we take away from that?
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: I have no idea, but generally I think he's a
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: really bad pitcher. But he actually is good against Baltimore.
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: In thirty six at bats, he actually has dominant numbers
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: against them. They have no extra base hits, fourteen strikeouts,
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: one walk, one thirty nine average three zero one ops.
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: Oh man, I mean, I really I never want to
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: lean towards Peterson like thinking that he's actually gonna do
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: well in a game, you know what I mean. But
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: if he is, maybe it'll be a game like this
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: because he's on the road where he pitches better. He's
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: got a good matchup against this Baltimore team, Peterson might
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: actually pitch well. So you know, it's one of those
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: situations where it's conflicting stuff going on where I think
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: this pitcher absolutely sucks. I hate him. I think he's
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: complete fade material. But you know, looks like he's not
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: as fatable in this game. Trevor Rodgers, this pitcher for Baltimore.
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: He's turned it around. He was really bad to start
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: the season, but he's been better recently. We backed him
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: in his last outing. We got to win, although I'll
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: show you that pitching line in a minute. It wasn't
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: all good. He's got a four point seventy ra one
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: point three to two whip. Those are not great numbers.
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: He's not as good at home five point oh two
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: homey ray. We got to win with his last outing
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: against the Reds, but he walked five guys even though
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: he had a five inning shutout in that game, picked
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: up a win. Five walks is not gonna cut it.
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: That's not good. But he did have a good month
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: of June, so maybe he will continue to pitch all right. Here,
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: He's got a reasonable hit rate. It's lower than one
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: per inning, at least. His walk rate's pretty low low enough.
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: At least. Strike out rate is really low though, so
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: he hasn't really been fooling hitters. His numbers against the
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: Cubs are not horrible. In forty eight at bats two
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: fifty average seven H four ops, fifteen to four strike
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: out walk raceos. That's not too bad. So you know,
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: on the surface, this game might look like more of
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: an over game. But I don't know, because both pitchers
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: actually have decent matchups here, and Peterson, by the way,
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: we know what you get out of him. He's way
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: too hit aable. His walk rate is also too high.
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: His strike cut rate is not great. It's a tough
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: game to handicap. Dude. Obviously, I'm avoiding this one. The
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: money is backing the over pretty strongly, and the total
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: is really high again at ten. I mean, I could
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: see the argument for it. I mean, you're not looking
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: at elite pitchers here at the very least. But I
• 21:31
  Speaker 3: think if you're gonna go, you could go under first
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: five here though, Like maybe these pictures, because they have
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: decent matchups, maybe they do better than you think. There
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: is the possibility of a full game over here, and
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: the money's backing Baltimore, And actually maybe that's the better
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: way to play this, because again you're looking at Baltimore
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: to avoid the sweep here, which is a good situational spot.
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: Fifty tickets, seventy nine percent of the cash and then
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: they'ret minus one thirty and I think Rogers is still
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: the more backable pitcher than Peterson. I don't want to
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: do it though, because Peterson for whatever reason, does really
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: well against Baltimore. But maybe a slightly towards Baltimore, as
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: you know, my best way to play that game, that
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: might be the way to go Baltimore. I might only
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: do it first five, too, though, because I don't like
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: Baltimore's bullpen, So maybe Baltimore first five. Cleveland at Minnesota,
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: Minnesota's on the verge of a sweep, believe it or not,
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: so they're now within one game of Cleveland in two
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: games of the White Sox because the Red Sox had
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: beaten the White Sox twice. So this division is getting crazy.
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: Detroit's not far behind either, so sad for Zach. With
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: Kansas City being basically the only team that has no
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: chance to win the Al Central, Cleveland is in a
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: sweep avoiding spot, so maybe they will show up with
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: a little bit more effort here. Both teams probably should
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: show up though, right because if Minnesota wins this game,
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: they're gonna be in a tie with Cleveland. So I
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: don't think minnesot was gonna overlook Cleveland even though they're
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: on the verge of sweeping them. But maybe Cleveland will
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: have a little extra motivation. Cleveland used a ton of
• 23:07
  Speaker 3: relief pitchers yesterday, though I don't know what they did.
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: I don't know who they're starting. I think it was
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: Slay CHACONI he didn't last very long, I guess because
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: they used most of their bullpen. They use seven relief
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: pitchers yesterday. That is not good. Minnesota use five. It
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: makes it look like it was an extra inning game,
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: but I'm pretty sure it wasn't. It was a close game,
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: though I believe Cleveland is the better bullpen generally at eighteenth,
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: But I would not back either bullpen in this one.
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: Minnesota twenty ninth. They're not a good bullpen at all.
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: Minnesota has been the better offense their seventh Cleveland really
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: struggling on that side of things at twenty ninth. Cleveland
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: has the better starting pitcher here. Generally, Gavin Williams is
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: pitching for them. He's pretty good three point eight to
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: niney Ray one point one to eight whip. He's not
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: as good on the road though, so there are some
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: things to not like here. Four point eight to two.
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: Roady Ray wasn't in his last start against the White Sox,
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: but he was pitching okay, sort of. I mean, he
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: gave up a lot of runs in this game against
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee in the middle of June. But his issue was
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: he just hasn't been going deep into games recently. That's
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: really what his issue is recently. But he's faced some
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: kind of difficult offenses in here, so maybe give him
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: a little bit of a pass for that. But yeah,
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: he did get a little bit worse in June. Overall,
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: he's got a pretty low hit rate. His walk rate
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: is actually not too bad, and usually his walks are
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: kind of the issue and he has a high strikeout rate,
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: so he's still a good pitcher. Like his numbers across
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: the board is still pretty good here, maybe a somewhat
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: high home run rate, though his numbers against Minnesota are
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: actually quite good in sixty one at bats, one eighty average,
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: four to seventy two oh ps, sixteen to five strike
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: out walk ratio, so he does draw a good matchup here.
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: I think he's the better of these two pitchers, and
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: he has a good matchup, so that's a decent sign.
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: Cleveland also maybe more motivated again to avoid the sweep
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: here Bailey Ober coming off the DL to pitch for
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: Minnesota here, and you know, I do tend to lean
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: towards these veteran pitchers that come off the DL. Ober
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: qualifies as that he's been in the league for a
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: long time. Veteran pitchers when they come off the injured
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: list or whatever, usually they're excited to get back out there.
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: That's my opinion. There are a lot of professional handicappers
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: that want to fade that picture, but I don't like.
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: I think a veteran pitcher when he's been injured, I
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: think he tends to get undervalued when he comes back
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: and I think he tends to pitch better. He's a
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: little bit excited. The team might rally around him a
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: little bit. Now. Ober is kind of a mediocre pitcher.
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: He's a very streaky pitcher, like sometimes he's just absolutely awful,
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: and sometimes he's awesome. He's got a four point five
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: to nine ERA. One point two to two whip is
• 25:46
  Speaker 3: not bad, though indicates that his ERA should be better
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: than that. Probably, he was pretty bad in his last
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: two starts before he got hurt though. Didn't do really
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: well at the Red Sox and then the game he
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: won that game though, then the game after that he
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: got a blitter rated by Pittsburgh, but maybe he was
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: dealing with some injuries there, and we know Pittsburgh is
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: a very good offense over Overall, his hit rate is
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: reasonably low. His walk rate's quite low. He doesn't walk guys,
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: but he hasn't been fooling hitters either. He does not
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: have a high strikeout rate, and he allows too many
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: home runs, so you know, he's a little bit too
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: hittable for the most part. That's tended to be his thing. Usually,
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: his numbers he gets Cleveland are actually good, though in
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: seventy eight at bats, two h five average, five twenty
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: ohps fifteen to two strikeout walk rate show, so that's
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: pretty good and with him maybe being excited to come
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: up the injured list here, I think this game might
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: be an under in the first five. I mean, the
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: total is kind of in no man's land here at
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: eight and a half, so it's not really indicating one
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: way or the other as far as where the total is.
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: It opened at nine, but it immediately got knocked down
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: a little bit to eight and a half. The money
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: looks like it is on the over sixty tickets eight
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: and five percent of cash, but remember that's the full game.
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: I think both starting pitchers might actually do well enough
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: here to get this thing under in the first five,
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: and you're probably looking at about a four and a
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: half on that number, so I think that might be
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: my best lean there. I would slightly lean towards Cleveland
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: as well. The money does seem pretty strong on Cleveland here,
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: sixty three percent of ticket set, ninety four percent of
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: the cash on them. They're favored at around minus one thirty.
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: Williams is getting some respect in the market there. Again, generally,
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: I do think he's better than over so I think
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: he can get the job done out pitch him. I
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: don't know if there's a you know, I mean, you
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: could do it first five, maybe two if you wanted
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: to just isolate the starting pitching, because both bullpens are
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: pretty avoidable here. But the question if you go Cleveland
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: is should you leave Cleveland's bullpen in? Like, are they
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: still better than Minnesota's after using everybody yesterday? Probably yes,
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: I mean Minnesota's bullpen is really bad, so you could
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: probably still argue for Cleveland full game there, although maybe
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: first five is a little bit safer, although nothing is safe.
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: Red Sox at White Sox. White Sox are another team
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: trying to avoid getting swept. The White Sox have been
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: completely stifled by the Red Sox pitching. However, I do
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: not think the Red Sox pitching is gonna do well
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: on this one. The Red Sox are having to basically
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: make a spots start here because Connolly Early is injured
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: right now. He got injured in his last start, and
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: Roner Suarez is day to day or something, so the
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: Red Sox have to go with a spots starter here.
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: Crochet is still not back. That's not good, so Red
• 28:38
  Speaker 3: Sox used totally and Bennett in the first two games,
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: and they were a really good one two punch and
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: they had this They held this White Sox offense to
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: one run total. Red Sox bullpen also doing the job there.
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: I think the White Sox are gonna score more than
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: one run here. I'll tell you that they're at home.
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: They're trying to avoid the sweep. Here. The Red Sox
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: play the Mets next. I don't know if that's really
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: gonna be a look ahead or not. Al though, there
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: is a rivalry there because it's still Red Sox New York.
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: You know, everybody still remembers on nineteen eighty six, so
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: there is still kind of a rivalry there. And Red
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: Sox and Mets fans always show up at you know,
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: Red Sox Mets games in the opposing parks, you know
• 29:19
  Speaker 3: what I mean. Like, I've been to Red Sox Mets
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: games in Fanny. I've never been to either of the
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: Mets stadiums though, Ben to Yankees Stadium but not the Mets.
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: Never went to Shay and I haven't been to whatever
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: their stadium is here now City Field or whatever. But
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: I've been to Red Sox Mets games. If We're in Fenway,
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: and a lot of Mets fans show up to those games,
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: so I don't know, but yeah, I think, you know,
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: there's a little bit of a rivalry there. But the
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: question I'm trying to answer is is there going to
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: be a look ahead? I don't know, but this game
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: really both pitchers are actually not very good in this game,
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: so you know, I mean, maybe that's gonna lend itself
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: more towards this game being an over. The Red Sox
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: do have a good bullpen early rested right now, they've
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: been using their bullpen not a lot. The last couple
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: of days used two guys. Yesterday, White Sox use four,
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: so the White Sox are less rested. Red Sox are
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: ranked fourth in bullpen. I believe they have the third
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: best bullpen e Ray right now. Pretty good. The White
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: Sox are not bad, but they're ranked nineteenth. They're a
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: mediocre bullpen. White Sox have the better offense, but of
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: course they've fallen recently and they haven't done much in
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: this series. Their number eleven Red Sox have actually moved
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: up a little bit offensively. They're at twenty third right now.
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: But the Red Sox, like I said, they're going with
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: like a spot start here with Patrick Sandoval. I don't
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: think this is gonna go. Well. He's another tall lefty.
• 30:42
  Speaker 3: The Red Sox love having tall left He's in their
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: starting rotation now. Man. But he's not good, dude. I mean,
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: he hasn't pitched in the Major since twenty twenty four.
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: I mean, is that a good sign? And the last
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: season the Bitch he had a five point EIGHTRA, one
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: point five to one whip. Yeah, that doesn't look good
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: to me. No, unless you think maybe he's gonna be
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: excited to be back out there. But you know, aside
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: from having a decent twenty twenty one, for whatever reason
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: with Anaheim, he's been bad throughout his career. His whole
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: career was with Anaheim. Hasn't pitched his twenty twenty four
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: in the majors. Maybe he was injured, but I don't know, man.
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: I mean, his overall numbers are pretty his RRA doesn't
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: look that bad in his career four point oh one,
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: but his whip is not good one point three nine,
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: so that indicates his era should be worse than that.
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: I'm not expecting much from him. He's not a good pitcher.
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: I don't even know why the Red Sox signed him.
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: I don't know what the deal is here. He was
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: better on the road, so there was that back in
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: twenty twenty four. There's not a whole lot to see here.
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: White Sox have not faced him much. They've three hitters
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: who have faced him. They did have some success against him.
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: Three thirty three average seven thirty three ops isn't really
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: that high. They have no extra base hits here, two strikeouts,
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: one walk. But I don't think Sandoval is gonna do
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: much here. The Red Sox have not had a good
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: history with guys named Sandoval being on the team. If
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: you guys remember Pablo Sandoval, the the trash Panda. He
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: was trash. He was good when he was on the
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: Giants and the Red Sox had him. The dude was just
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: like he was like completely obese when he was on
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox. He couldn't run the bases, couldn't hit anymore.
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: What the fuck was that dude? Yeah, so, the Red
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: Sox don't have a good history with guys name p Sandoval.
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: Anthony k is pitching for the White Sox. I'm not
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: sure that that's really a good thing for them either.
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: He's not that good. Four point two ninety ra one
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: point three to nine whip is not very good. He's
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: been good at home though, three point oh two, Homie,
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: that you dig into these numbers, you know, I don't know, man,
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: I don't think he's really that good at home either.
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: His opponent batting average at home is actually worse than
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: it is on the road, so that era might be
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: a little bit misleading. He has not been going deep
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: in a start, so I don't know if we expect
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: him to go very deep into this start. Here his
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: overall numbers, his hit rate is right at one per inning,
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: very mediocre. Is walk rate is pretty mediocre as well,
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: his strikeout rates pretty low. There's not really much to
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: like here, except that the Red Sox haven't really faced him.
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: They're zero for too often with a strikeout. Only Duran
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: and Wong have faced him. But I don't know how
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: you really read into those numbers much. So I think
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: an over might make the most sense in this game.
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: But you got two pretty weak starting pitchers here, which
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: might cascade into the bullpens. The money seems to agree
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: with me on this. The totals nine, so it's high
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: for a reason. Uh, fifty three percent of tickets, ninety
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: percent of the cash on the White Sox. You know,
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: White Sox team total over makes sense in this game too,
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: because the White Sox might finally break out after they
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: only scored one run in the series, and they're facing
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: a very, very questionable pitcher. You know, I think it's
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: more likely that k pitches well here than Sandoval, so
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: I would go either over for the full game here
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: or go White Sox team total over is probably the
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: way that I would approach that game. I don't know
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: what the White Sox team total is gonna be, but
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: the White Sox are favored at around minus one sixteen
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: or so. The Red Sox are getting the money though,
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: seventy four percent of the tickets ninety percent of the
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: cash on the Red Sox. I would not play the
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: Red There's no way I would want to have my
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: money back. He's sand of all. I would not play
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox in that game. I might slightly lean
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: to the White Sox in that one, but I think
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: if I went White Sox, I would only do it
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: first five though. But again, I think the better ways
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: to play that are to hit the totals. Either the
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: full game total over or the White Sox team total
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: over would be in my opinions there. You'll need the
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: White Sox to probably score five or six runs there though,
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: which seems like you're asking a lot when they scored
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: one in the entire series. A's are at Detroit. Detroit's
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: look good in this series. Detroit is moving up. Man,
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: They've won four games in a row. Detroit is not
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: packed in for the season yet. Man, they could certainly
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: make the playoffs. The AL is terrible. Detroit could still
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: win this division and they are debatably still the best
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: team in this division. But the A's are in a
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: sweep avoiding spot. So the A's are gonna be in
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: that more motivated spot, which, by the way, that is
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: the spot that Chicago is in, like I would say
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: the White Sox, so you know, that tends to be
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: a little bit more of a motivator. As far as
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: who's Detroit playing next to playing Philadelphia, I don't know
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: if that's gonna be a look ahead or not an
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: interleague series there. Philadelphia has been pretty good, but you know,
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: Detroit they probably you know, I mean, I don't know
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: if Detroit can afford to really overlook anybody, but maybe
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: once they know they've already won this series. And the
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: A's are not exactly a team that completely draws your attention.
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: The A's don't have a good bullpen. They use three
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: guys out of the bullpen. Detroit's bullpen is better, they
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: used three as well. Let's see the a is where
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: are they at? The A's are fifth in bullpen, not good.
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: Detroit's been decent. They're sixteenth. The A's are the better offense.
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: They're ninth, tiede with the Yankees. Detroit is nineteenth, although
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: I think they're improving a little bit there. Jack Perkins
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: is pitching for the A's. I think you could argue
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: that Perkins has the most upside out of the two
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: pitchers starting today. I know Perkins his numbers don't look good.
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: Six point seven five Vray one point four or five Whip.
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: I realize that's not good, but remember he pitches in
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: the A's stadium, so he is actually a little bit
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: better away from that stadium. Five point six six Roady Ray.
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: Although Detroit is a very tough opponent in Detroit, Detroit's
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: really good at home. But Perkins might pitch better again
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: away from that A's stadium. He got bombed last time
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: out in the A's Stadium against Miami, but he was pitching,
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: you know, somewhat okay, and a couple starts before that.
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: The thing to like about Perkins, He's got a really
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: high strikeout rate, So that tells you that he's able
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: to strike guys out of the league level. But he's
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: allowed too many hits and too many walks, so I
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: don't know what the deal is with him. Usually when
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: you have a high strike out rate, you don't see
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: that also coincide with a high hit rate. Like a
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: lot of times you'll see a high walk rate, and
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: it means the guy's throwing hard and he's wild. But
• 37:16
  Speaker 3: the high hit rate is a little bit weird to me.
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: But yeah, Perkins has got some talent, but he's gotta,
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: you know, kind of rain his stuff in. It looks
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: like here. But the strikeout number is good. Detroit's basically
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: never seen him. Only Outman has seen him before. One
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: for two with an RBI single on a strikeout there
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: and no walks. But Perkins, basically he might be able
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: to ride this unfamiliarity here. So I talk about these
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: young pitchers, if they have talent. Unfamiliarity might help them
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: out and give them an advantage over the starting pitch
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: over the hitting. Excuse me on the other team from
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: Brevaldez is pitching for the Tigers. He's not doing that well.
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: Four point two ninety ra one point three to eight
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: whip is not very good. He's a little bit worse
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: at home four point six home wasn't particularly good in
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: his last outing at Texas. That's not a good sign.
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: I think we lost on the under. Maybe I have
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: to stop playing unders in Texas. Although, yeah, try to
• 38:11
  Speaker 3: stop me. I'm gonna keep doing it. That game wasn't
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: good though he had one strikeout in five innings. You know,
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: give up five runs on nine hits two walks in
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: Texas where usually everybody pitches well there, that's not great.
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: Although Valdez was I don't know. He had some good
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: starts in here. I'll give him that in the month
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: of May, but overall he's been struggling. His hit rate
• 38:34
  Speaker 3: is actually too high. His walk rate is kind of
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: high a little bit. His strike out rate is way down.
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: So I think there's something wrong with his stuff because
• 38:44
  Speaker 3: usually he strikes more guys out than he is doing
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: this year. That's a problem. He's going up against an
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: offense that could definitely do damage here. The A's have
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: ninety one at bats against him, two sixty four average,
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: seven to sixty ops, twenty four to six strike out
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: walk ratio. That's not good for Valdez either. I kind
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: of like the A's here to avoid the sweep pier.
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: The money's coming in back in the A's. I think
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: if you play the A's, you gotta do it first five. Though,
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: although the A's just switched their starter, so hang on
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: a minute, what the hell is going on here? The
• 39:15
  Speaker 3: A's are now using Suarez. I have no idea who
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: the hell that is Jose Suarez. Shit, it looks like
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: they're either going with a bullpen game or they're gonna
• 39:24
  Speaker 3: put Suarez. He does not have good numbers. They might
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: put him in front of Perkins as an opener. So yeah,
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man. I mean, I'm gonna avoid this game.
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: I could see the argument for the A's and the
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: money's coming in in the A's, but I think if
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: you play the A's, you gotta do it first five,
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: and you should pick pick Valdez must start, but don't
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: pick an A's starter because it looks like we don't
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: even know what they're gonna do. But that does make
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: this difficult to handicaps. Seventy seven percent of tickets are
• 39:53
  Speaker 3: on Detroit, eighty one percent of the cash on the A's,
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: with the A's possibly motivated to avoid the sweep. But
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: you know, if what do you want to do here
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: is just fade Valdez and you know, not try to
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: figure out what the A's pitching is gonna do, obviously,
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: what you could do is play the A's over their
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: team total. That might be a way to do this
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: because the totals nine Detroit is a favorite at minus
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: one thirty, so you'll probably only need the A's to
• 40:17
  Speaker 3: get to like you'll probably need them to get to
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: five runs here. They could definitely do that, So I
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: think maybe A's team total over makes some sense in
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: this one. By the way, one thing that I hadn't
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: really thought about, which I probably should have, because you know,
• 40:33
  Speaker 3: I heard some professionals talking about playing a home team's
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: team total over. How if you play it in the
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: full game and you expect that team to win, which
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: you're kind of saying that you expect them to win.
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: If you think they're gonna get runs, they might not
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: bad in the ninth inning, so you get one fewer
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: inning of batting out of them, you know what I mean.
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: So sometimes that's a reason to play a first five
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: team total over on a home team. So just putting
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: that out there because that reminded me of that, I
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: was like, oh, yeah, that's an interesting point because I
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: always just look at the full game for totals and
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: for team totals. Uh. But in this case, it would
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: be the road team, the A's, So if you do
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: play their team total over, you're gonna get all nine
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: innings out of them, and yeah, the full game totals
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: at nine. The money is backing the over quite strongly,
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: and I wouldn't disagree with that either probably, And again,
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: if you want to play the A's, you got to
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: take their bullpen out of the equation. But the fact
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: that they have an opener starting now that does worry
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: me a little bit. Or whatever they're doing here, money
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: is backing the over strongly. So you know, if you
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: wanted to play the over, eighty three percent of tickets
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: on the under seventy percent of the cash on the over,
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: the over makes more sense. Than the under in that game.
• 41:49
  Speaker 3: All right, yeah, Trey, what's up? Thanks for hanging out
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: the Al race. You might be able to uh, dude,
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: maybe just bet on the Tigers to win. Maybe maybe
• 41:59
  Speaker 3: you should have done that before before this little win
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: streak they've been on. There might be some value still
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: on betting Detroit to win that division. Seattle at Miami,
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: this is interesting. Seattle is trying to avoid a sweep.
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: Miami has won five games in a row. Who does
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: Miami play next? They play Cleveland. I don't know if
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: that's really a look ahead or not, but Seattle. I
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: think Seattle's the better team, dude, and their road favorite
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: here trying to avoid the sweep. So I think there
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: might be some things to like about Seattle in this one,
• 42:31
  Speaker 3: even though I know Miami's been playing well and they'd
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: be a playoff team right now. I'm pretty sure Miami
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: used three or elief pitchers. Their bullpen is okay. I
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: like Seattle's bullpen better though, and they only use one
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: relief pitcher. Miami's ranked third, but their BULLPENNI arrays not
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: that good. Seattle's bullpenny arrays better even though they're ranked fifteenth,
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: because their whip is worse, but I think Seattle's the
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: better bullpen. They're more rested here. Miami's offense has been
• 42:57
  Speaker 3: good recently. They're sixth, although I don't think they're offense
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: is that good. Seattle is twenty fifth, tied with Arizona,
• 43:04
  Speaker 3: so they haven't really been that good. But I think
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: Seattle's offense might be a little bit better than that,
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: and they've had injuries throughout the season. And I do
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: think Seattle has a starting pitching advantage here. I mean,
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: they got Bryce Miller on the mound. I think you
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: could make You could definitely make the argument he's their
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: best starter right now. He's been really good. One point
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: seven to one ERA, point six to six whip. It's
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: in kind of a smaller sample though, because you know,
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: he hasn't pitched all season, so he's had a bit
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: of a shorter season so far, so his numbers probably
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: gonna regress a little bit, Like this is just unsustainable,
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: but he's been really good. He's not as good on
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: the road, but still two point seven. Roady Ray is
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: not exactly bad. He was excellent last time out, seven
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: shutout innings against Anaheim, two hits allowed, eight strikeouts, no walks.
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: He hasn't walked anybody in four straight starts. Yeah, he's
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: basically walking nobody. He has a ridiculously low walk rate,
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: really low hit in a high strikeout rate. All of
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: his numbers are good against Miami. They don't really have
• 44:05
  Speaker 3: much experience against him. They have three hitters who have
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: faced him, although they've been okay against him. Two seventy
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: three average, no power hitting really though, six thirty six
• 44:15
  Speaker 3: OPS one, zero strikeout walk ratio eleven at bats. So yeah,
• 44:20
  Speaker 3: I think Miller is going to pitch well again here.
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: But our favorite guy, Jansen Junk is pitching for the Marlins.
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: He's coming off the DL here. He got injured. He
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: was good at the beginning of the season, but he
• 44:30
  Speaker 3: did start to fall off a bit four point eight ERA,
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: one point three whip that's not excellent. He is a
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: little bit better at home four point seven home e RA.
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: He was pretty good in his last start before he
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: got hurt. He was really bad two starts in a
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: row against Tampa Bay and Atlanta. Then he was good
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: against Toronto, then he got injured. He hasn't pitched since
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: the end of May. Overall, he does have a hit
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: rate that's too high, though his walk rates low. His
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: strikeout rate is pretty low as well, so Junk, I
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: mean he throws Junk. Literally he doesn't strike guys out,
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: so that's a little bit of a problem. Although he
• 45:07
  Speaker 3: doesn't put guys on base via the free pass at least,
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: so that's at least something. His numbers get Seattle though
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: they only have five ters who have fase him four
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: at bats, but they have a seven fifty average and
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: eighteen hundred ops and those strikeouts one walk. Now, Junk,
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: he is a veteran pitcher, so he does qualify for
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: that veteran pitcher returning from the injured list, so he
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: might actually pitch well you know what I mean, because
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: he might just be excited to get back out there.
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: His team is actually in contention right now, so Junk
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: might actually you know, fire off a decent start here.
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: And that sample size is bad, Like you know, it
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: looks bad his numbers against Seattle, but it's so small.
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: I don't know how much you can really take away
• 45:48
  Speaker 3: from that. Now, all that being said, I would still
• 45:51
  Speaker 3: lean to Seattle here, and I consider putting it on
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: my card. I'm not gonna get there with that one.
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: I don't know. Small sample sizes can be misleading. The
• 45:59
  Speaker 3: money's it seems like it agrees with Seattle sixty three
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: percent of the tickets with seventy two percent of the
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: cash on them. They're trying to avoid the sweeps, so
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: they could be a little bit more motivated here. I
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: think I would prefer to back Miller over junk. Miller
• 46:13
  Speaker 3: is not a junk pitcher. Miller is definitely the better
• 46:16
  Speaker 3: of the two pitchers here. I think you get the
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: better bullpen behind you with Seattle as well. Uh, they're
• 46:21
  Speaker 3: at about minus one thirty something year, fairly reasonable price.
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: I think I would play Seattle money line full game
• 46:27
  Speaker 3: in that one. All right, I have two plays to
• 46:31
  Speaker 3: still get to. I haven't gotten to any of them yet.
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: I only a baseball today, and that's it. Detroit's not
• 46:37
  Speaker 3: gonna trade school ball. Everybody's talking about them trading. I
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: see Detroit fans that are like, Schooble's not even our
• 46:43
  Speaker 3: best pitcher, we should trade them. I'm like, don't be
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: an idiot, Like, come on, I mean, I know miz
• 46:49
  Speaker 3: and Melton, they're both pitching well, but you're you, You're
• 46:53
  Speaker 3: a complete moron. If you're gonna try to argue that
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: either of those pitchers is better than school ball, who
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: is an elite level pitch. I mean, give me a break.
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: But if Detroit is trying to win this year, yeah,
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: they're not gonna trade schoola ball. Miami, well, yeah their off.
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: It's probably is cooling off because I don't think it's
• 47:11
  Speaker 3: that good. All right, I'm gonna be right back, and
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: then I just love two plays to get to five
• 47:16
  Speaker 3: more games to talk about here, and then I'm gonna
• 47:19
  Speaker 3: talk about World Cup is back in action today, an
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: interesting game and w n B A. I don't really
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: have much on the w I have one opinion that's
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: stronger than the rest in the w n b A,
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: but I'm not gonna make it a play. I'll be
• 47:33
  Speaker 3: right back. Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're
• 47:44
  Speaker 3: on own seven run over the last two days after
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: tonight it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: gonna start off this show horrible Sunday one and five.
• 47:54
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what to tell you above that
• 47:57
  Speaker 3: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: never seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing
• 48:04
  Speaker 3: two straight losses. Not a good day at all. Own four,
• 48:08
  Speaker 3: I have not had had a good season.
• 48:11
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 48:11
  Speaker 3: With wookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues,
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: I've reached into pink. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 48:21
  Speaker 3: browins hack, Man, I don't know what is going on
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: with the Bruins arch hape? Is that what it is?
• 48:26
  Speaker 3: I don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think
• 48:29
  Speaker 3: who even knows? Man, I don't know what day is anymore.
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what data is anymore. Man, back
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: with you after the worst day that I can possibly have,
• 48:39
  Speaker 3: Back with you as I always am until I die,
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: at least oh and two yesterday and yesterday it did
• 48:46
  Speaker 3: not go well for me. Own five the worst month
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: To the slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continue. Somebody
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: fucking killed me. Please. I don't even know what I
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: should do at this point, other than potentially end it
• 49:07
  Speaker 3: all all right? Philadelphia and Cincinnati is next year? Hold on, man,
• 49:19
  Speaker 3: what am I looking at? Rockies? I mean the Dodgers?
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: I think just overlooked the Rockies, and the Rockies step
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: up their game against the Dodgers. The Rockies are still
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: they're the worst team in baseball, dude, don't you know.
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: Don't get confused. Philadelphia and Cincinnati. Cincinnati got us the
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: win yesterday in the first five. They won in the
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: full game as well. I think they were winning seven
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: to two at the end of the fifth and they
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: won eleven to five. Both teams might show up for
• 49:52
  Speaker 3: this one. I think the teams have split the series
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: so far. I think Philadelphia has a starting pitching edge
• 49:58
  Speaker 3: in this game. Philadelphia used a bunch of relief pitchers
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: yesterday they use five. They're not great right now. Out
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: of the bullpen. Cincinnati is worse. Although Cincinnati only used
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: three guys out of the bullpen. But this is not
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: a good Cincinnati bullpen. They ranked twenty eighth. Pretty bad stuff.
• 50:16
  Speaker 3: Although I think they're a little bit better than all
• 50:18
  Speaker 3: these other bottom tier bullpens, but they're not very good.
• 50:23
  Speaker 3: Philadelphia hasn't been good out of the bullpen recently either,
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: their twentieth although they still have the better bullpen over Cincinnati.
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: Philadelphia is twenty first in offense. They have not been
• 50:33
  Speaker 3: very good offensively. Cincinnati is twenty third, tied with the
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: Red Sox. I believe right Reds and Red Sox so
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: not good hitting out of either of these teams early
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: this year. Jesus Lozardo's pitching for Philly here. He's pretty decent.
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: Three point seven five VR, one point two seven WHIP.
• 50:52
  Speaker 3: He's been really good on the road. He has extreme
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: home road splits. I don't really know why he's so
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: bad at home, but he's really good on the road
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: one point five to four Roadiram. Even though though this
• 51:03
  Speaker 3: is a a hitter friendly park here, I think Louzarno
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: might pitch well here. Lozarda was really good on the
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: road last time out at Kansas City, and he's been
• 51:14
  Speaker 3: pretty good. You know, over his last like five starts,
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: he's allowed two or viewer and runs in all of them.
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: Philadelphia's won every one of his starts going back into
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: late May, so they win when he's on the mound.
• 51:26
  Speaker 3: His walks are still a little bit of an issue,
• 51:28
  Speaker 3: a little bit high there, but he's got a fairly
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: low hit rate and his strike got rate is high,
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: so he does fool guys. So that's good numbers against
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: the Reds are not great, but they're all right. In
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: forty four at bats, two fifty average, seven to eleven ops,
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: fifteen to nine strikeout walk ratio is not very good,
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: but the rest of those numbers are pretty good. He's
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: better than Brady Singer, who's pitching for the Reds here.
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: We faded Singer in his last start and we got
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: the win by doing so, although he is better at
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: home though he's got overall five point zero three ERA
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: one point five to four whip that is not good
• 52:04
  Speaker 3: at all, So obviously he's the lesser pitcher here, but
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: he is veteran at home three point twenty nine home ERA.
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: We did fade him at home last time out. He
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: actually was not horrible in the game. We got the
• 52:17
  Speaker 3: win anyway, but he did walk five guys in five innings,
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: so he did get a little bit lucky that he
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: only allowed two runs there. We got lucky a little
• 52:24
  Speaker 3: bit too, though. I mean, I think I backed who
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: was it that I backed in that start? It was Rogers, right,
• 52:32
  Speaker 3: I pointed that out earlier in the show today. Rogers
• 52:35
  Speaker 3: had a lot of walks in his start in that
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: one too. Singer, he's been way too hit a bull
• 52:39
  Speaker 3: He's got a really high hit rate. His walk rate
• 52:41
  Speaker 3: is also not good. He's allowed a lot of home
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: runs too. These numbers are all really bad, and his
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: strike got rate is not great either. So Singer has
• 52:49
  Speaker 3: pretty bad across the board numbers here. His numbers it
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: gets Philadelphia or not horrible but not great. In forty
• 52:58
  Speaker 3: three at bats to seventy nine average is a high
• 53:00
  Speaker 3: seven to twenty one ohps is still below that seven
• 53:03
  Speaker 3: to fifty threshold, but it's not good really. Thirteen zero
• 53:08
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio is good though. Yeah, I mean, I
• 53:13
  Speaker 3: think you probably gotta lean towards Philadelphia here, but you
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: have to lay a huge price with them minus won
• 53:18
  Speaker 3: sixty something. So if you play Philadelphia, I think you
• 53:20
  Speaker 3: have to make it a minus one run line or something.
• 53:23
  Speaker 3: You get the price down. I know I haven't done
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: that for a long time in baseball now. But if
• 53:27
  Speaker 3: you do it with Philly here, I think you're getting
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: the better starter, you're probably still back in the better
• 53:32
  Speaker 3: bullpen here, and you get all nine innings of at
• 53:35
  Speaker 3: bats out of Philly if you're gonna do it, So,
• 53:38
  Speaker 3: that might be the way I would go. Eighty two
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: percent of tickets ninety percent of the cash on Philly,
• 53:44
  Speaker 3: so they are public, so something to maybe worry about there.
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: I think again, probably you're gonna charged too high of
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: a price on Philly, though, so I guess do with
• 53:55
  Speaker 3: that info what you want. I wouldn't really disagree with
• 53:57
  Speaker 3: Philly in the first five either. I mean, I think
• 53:59
  Speaker 3: Luzar over Singers a pretty big edge on its own
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: with Phillies. So Rockies, No, they sucked. Their pitching is awful.
• 54:10
  Speaker 3: I don't know what else to say about that. Did
• 54:13
  Speaker 3: Did they put up twenty three runs? Maybe they did once.
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: I think it was in one of those games at
• 54:18
  Speaker 3: the A's like Vegas Stadium maybe or something. I don't remember.
• 54:23
  Speaker 3: All right, next game up, I'm gonna give a playout
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: in Milwaukee's Saint Louis, mister Pensey. What's up? Thanks for
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: hanging out, mister Pensey. With good timing, because I haven't
• 54:35
  Speaker 3: given out a play yet on the show, I'm being selective.
• 54:38
  Speaker 3: I got two plays. We're gonna play Milwaukee on the
• 54:40
  Speaker 3: money line here. I'm a little bit worried this one
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: looks too obvious, but I think we have a big
• 54:45
  Speaker 3: edge throughout this game. Milwaukee's better than Saint Louis. Dude,
• 54:49
  Speaker 3: I know Saint Louis did get the win yesterday, so
• 54:51
  Speaker 3: they lost four games in a row, and they'd lost
• 54:54
  Speaker 3: three games in this series, which is gonna be a
• 54:57
  Speaker 3: five game series because today is the fifth game, and
• 55:01
  Speaker 3: that was because they played a doubleheader two days ago. Now,
• 55:05
  Speaker 3: I know, I usually say when a team ends a
• 55:07
  Speaker 3: losing streak like that, a lot of times they will
• 55:09
  Speaker 3: carry that new momentum over. And Milwaukee lost to win streak,
• 55:12
  Speaker 3: so a lot of times that will carry over as well.
• 55:15
  Speaker 3: They lost a four game win streak in fact, But
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: I'm not gonna go with that here. I'm not gonna
• 55:20
  Speaker 3: go with that momentum angle here. I know Milwaukee's already
• 55:23
  Speaker 3: won the series. You know, you could argue them might
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: look ahead to Pittsburgh here, but I think Milwaukee has
• 55:28
  Speaker 3: too many edges in this game. I think they're gonna
• 55:31
  Speaker 3: win this game. I don't like Saint Louis. I don't
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: think Saint Louis is that good of a team. I
• 55:35
  Speaker 3: think they're worse than their record looks. Milwaukee is actually
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: really good on the road. Twenty nine and sixteen Cardinals
• 55:42
  Speaker 3: are only twenty four and twenty four at home. That's
• 55:44
  Speaker 3: not good. They're actually worse at home than they are
• 55:47
  Speaker 3: on the road. They don't hit as well at home.
• 55:50
  Speaker 3: I think we get the better bullpen out of Milwaukee here,
• 55:53
  Speaker 3: maybe even fairly significantly. So Milwaukee used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 55:57
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis also did Milwaukee. They ranked eighth in bullpen
• 56:02
  Speaker 3: right now, and they have one of the best bullpen
• 56:03
  Speaker 3: e rays. I think they have the either number four
• 56:07
  Speaker 3: or five bullpen e ray here. I think yeah, number
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: number four, I think behind the Yankees, Atlanta Red Sox.
• 56:13
  Speaker 3: I think Brewers are next. So they got a really
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: good bullpen here, and they're going up against a weaker
• 56:19
  Speaker 3: bullpen in Saint Louis's ranked twenty first and has a
• 56:22
  Speaker 3: bullpen e array almost a run worse than Milwaukee's, So
• 56:26
  Speaker 3: we will go full game with this here. Saint Louis
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: is also not as good offensively. The Brewers are eighth,
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis is eighteenth, and like I said, they're not
• 56:34
  Speaker 3: as good at home hitting either, so we get an
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: advantage there, and I think we get an advantage in
• 56:39
  Speaker 3: the starting pitching with Logan Henderson pitching now. He's coming
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: off the injured list, and he does not qualify to
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: me as a veteran, And you know I talk about
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: I like veteran pitchers coming back from injury from the
• 56:50
  Speaker 3: injured list. He's only pitched, he's only made ten starts
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: in his career, so he's not a veteran, but I
• 56:56
  Speaker 3: still think he's gonna be excited to get back out there.
• 56:59
  Speaker 3: And what I like about him, he's a good young pitcher.
• 57:01
  Speaker 3: He's a talented young pitcher. He's got a two point
• 57:04
  Speaker 3: seven to four ERA one point zero four whip really good.
• 57:07
  Speaker 3: He's not as good on the road three point four
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: to six roadyra. But we're looking at an offense that
• 57:12
  Speaker 3: doesn't do that well in their home stadium and it's
• 57:15
  Speaker 3: a pitcher friendly ballpark, so I think this is a
• 57:17
  Speaker 3: decent matchup for him. And I believe Saint Louis has
• 57:20
  Speaker 3: never faced him. Let me make sure of that. They
• 57:23
  Speaker 3: haven't faced him this year at least correct, So Saint
• 57:27
  Speaker 3: Louis has never faced Henderson before, so that's an extra advantage.
• 57:30
  Speaker 3: You know. I like backing these young pitchers that I
• 57:32
  Speaker 3: think actually have talent to do better, to do well
• 57:35
  Speaker 3: against these hitters that I haven't seen him before, so
• 57:38
  Speaker 3: I think that might be the case here. By the way, Henderson,
• 57:41
  Speaker 3: He's faced Washington, the Yankees, Minnesota, and the Dodgers this
• 57:45
  Speaker 3: year and Kansas City on the road, where Kansas City
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: does hit a little bit better, so he has not
• 57:51
  Speaker 3: faced easy offenses. And in fact, yeah, Saint Louis is
• 57:55
  Speaker 3: a lesser offense than all the all of those recent
• 57:58
  Speaker 3: four offenses that he faced Rogers, Twins, Yankees, Washington, and
• 58:01
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis is a step down from all of those.
• 58:04
  Speaker 3: And he allowed no more than the tour and runs
• 58:06
  Speaker 3: in any of those starts, although they are capping him
• 58:08
  Speaker 3: at five innings, but I'm okay with that because I
• 58:10
  Speaker 3: like the Brewers Bultpen as well, and we're gonna fade
• 58:13
  Speaker 3: Andre Payonte, who I don't think is that good. Although
• 58:16
  Speaker 3: his numbers are actually not bad three point six ERA,
• 58:21
  Speaker 3: one point two to two whip, that's not bad, but
• 58:23
  Speaker 3: he's not as good at home four point four to
• 58:26
  Speaker 3: seven ER at home, and in fact, his opponent batting
• 58:28
  Speaker 3: average is way worse at home to eighty seven, so
• 58:31
  Speaker 3: he gives it up a bit at home. He pitched
• 58:34
  Speaker 3: pretty well last time out against the Cubs. Last time
• 58:36
  Speaker 3: he was at home. He was bad against Miami, so
• 58:40
  Speaker 3: I don't know, you know, if we should put too
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: much weight into that. But overall, I don't think Pionte
• 58:45
  Speaker 3: is that good dude. He does have a low hit
• 58:47
  Speaker 3: rate in a pretty low walk rate, but he doesn't
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: strike anybody out, induces a lot of ground balls. So again,
• 58:53
  Speaker 3: he's one of the guys the advanced analytics guys don't
• 58:55
  Speaker 3: like guys like this that pitch to contact. Although I
• 58:59
  Speaker 3: tend to well, I think his numbers are actually okay,
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: you know, like he doesn't put guys on base, really,
• 59:04
  Speaker 3: but I'm gonna back Henderson over Payonte here. Plus, the
• 59:08
  Speaker 3: real crucial element to this is that Payonte does not
• 59:12
  Speaker 3: do well against the Brewers. They've seen a ton of him.
• 59:15
  Speaker 3: They have eighty five at bats against them, a three
• 59:17
  Speaker 3: to zero six average, eight eighty ops and a fourteen
• 59:20
  Speaker 3: to thirteen strikeout walk ratio, which is really bad stuff
• 59:24
  Speaker 3: from Pionte. So that's not good. He faced Milwaukee, by
• 59:28
  Speaker 3: the way here in this stadium back on May sixth,
• 59:31
  Speaker 3: and he wasn't good. He took a loss. He went
• 59:33
  Speaker 3: six innings, which is alright, but he gave up eight hits,
• 59:36
  Speaker 3: five runs, two walks, three strikeouts. Wasn't a good start
• 59:40
  Speaker 3: out of him. He didn'tduce a lot of ground balls
• 59:42
  Speaker 3: so many that maybe he got a little bit lucky.
• 59:45
  Speaker 3: So although Milwaukee is not a power hitting team though,
• 59:49
  Speaker 3: so Milwaukee, you know, they do hit their fair share
• 59:52
  Speaker 3: of grounders and stuff. But anyway, yeah, I'm gonna back
• 59:55
  Speaker 3: Logan Henderson in this one over Payonte. I think he's
• 59:59
  Speaker 3: the better pitcher. And if you look his overall numbers,
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 3: by the way, Henderson pretty low hit rate, his walk
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 3: rate is nice and low, and his strike gut rate
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 3: is actually quite high. So Henderson, I mean, he obviously
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 3: has the ability to fool hitters at the major league level.
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 3: He can blow guys away with this stuff. It looks like,
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 3: so yeah, we're taking Milwaukee there looking at the money
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 3: line or sorry, looking at the market, I mean, where
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 3: are we looking? National League? Come on, Yeah, it looks
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 3: like the money agrees with me on this. They're in
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 3: the minus one thirty something price range, sixty six percent
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 3: of tickets eighty eight percent of the cash on Milwaukee.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 3: So you know, I know it's slightly juicy, but we
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 3: got to do this in baseball, you know, once it
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 3: gets minus one fifty, all start looking at other ways
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 3: to play the game. But yeah, all right, Milwaukee is
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 3: way better than Saint Louis. They are. But I do
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: worry that Milwaukee's already won the series, so but you know,
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 3: they probably they'd probably rather still go four and one
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 3: than than three two when the series. Well, Milwaukee has
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 3: kind of a stranglehold on the division right now, though.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 3: Next game is also gonna be a play and I'm
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 3: doing it again, dude, I can't stop myself. I'm gonna
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 3: take a first five under in a Texas game. I
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 3: like the starting pitching in this game. Man, what can
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 3: I do? It's gonna be a first five under. It's
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 3: three and a half. It's even money out there. I know.
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 3: I don't love the three and a half. If you
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 3: can find a four, and let me see if I
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 3: can find a four, let me see what the price
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 3: is on it, because every half run does matter in
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 3: the first five because it could be tied obviously at
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 3: the end of five. Let me see what we got
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: for numbers here. You can play the full game under seven,
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 3: by the way, if you want to. I don't see
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 3: any books with a four out there right now. It
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: looks like it's all basically what I just gave you there.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna do it anyway. I mean, I like to
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 3: starting pitching in this one. I don't like the bullpen's really,
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 3: I don't like Anaheim's bullpen. Anaheims bullpen. We're gonna avoid them.
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 3: These four relief pitches. Yes, today, Texas bullpen has given
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 3: me some problems recently. Two although the better bullpen, but
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 3: these three guys, I'll avoid both bullpens though, especially because
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 3: of Anaheims. Anaheims is twenty third ranked, They're not good.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 3: Texas is still ranked tenth. I still like Texas's bullpen,
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 3: but they're on my bad side right now. But really,
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 3: I'm focusing on the starting pitching, and the oddsmakers are
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 3: telling you they think the starting pitching should be good
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 3: here because the full games a total of seven, and
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 3: again if you want to go under seven full game,
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 3: I still agree with it. But I'm focusing on where
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 3: I think we have the biggest edge. We're gonna back
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 3: read debt Mes again, even though he didn't do well
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 3: for me last time out against the Red Sox, but
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 3: on the road at Texas maybe a little bit better. Texas.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 3: I think probably actually hits worse at home than the
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 3: Red Sox hit on the road. Oh and, by the way,
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 3: looking at the team's hitting still, like I said in
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 3: the loss that I took in the series of the
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 3: under yesterday, we're still not looking at good offens this year.
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 3: Texas is twentieth, angels a twenty second. Texas still plays
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 3: a lot of low scoring home games. Dead Merse has
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 3: been good, dude. I like him. His era has gotten
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 3: a little bit high recently four point one three, but
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 3: his whip is still pretty good one point one point one.
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 3: He wasn't a very good last time out against the
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 3: Red Sox, but he's been bitching pretty well for pretty
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 3: much the whole season. He's got a low hit rate,
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 3: his walk rate is not too bad. His strike gout
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 3: rate is high, so he has the ability to strike
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 3: guys out. Obviously. That tells me that he's got some
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 3: talent here. I like this guy. I think he's still
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 3: under the raid arm, and he's been really good against Texas.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 3: I mean, this is This is one of the main
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 3: reasons I'm backing this. This is ridiculous. He has fifty
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 3: one at bats against Texas. They have three hits against
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 3: him three for fifty one, twenty six to two strike
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 3: out walk ratio oh fifty nine average two thirty two
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 3: ops and that includes a home run from Jake Berger
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 3: and a double from Higashioka in there are these numbers good?
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 3: Uh yeah, I think three for fifty one to dude,
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 3: I mean, it's it is laughable, it's so insane. Denvers
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 3: did face Texas earlier this year in Anaheim and he
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 3: one hit them through eight innings that had fourteen strikeouts.
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 3: Now we don't need him to do that well again
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 3: to get this thing to go under. We do need
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 3: him to be good, but he could be a little
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 3: bit worse than that and still get us there. And
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 3: we're backing Nathany Evaldi on the other side. Evaldi, he's
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 3: better than his RA would suggest too. So I like
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 3: this for that reason too, because I think the eras
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 3: for both pitchers are a little bit misleadingly high. He's
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 3: got a four point two ERA, but his whip at
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: one point one seven kind of tells me his ERA
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 3: should be more in the threes. Evaldi, I know he
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 3: hasn't been that good at home four point six two ERA,
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 3: but I countered that last time. I talked about this
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 3: by saying that, well, his home run rate is higher
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 3: at home, but that seems like a fluke to me,
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 3: because his opponent batting average is lower at home, and
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 3: he still has good has pretty good numbers otherwise at home,
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: so I don't think he's actually that bad at home.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 4: He was.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 3: He was really good last year both at home and
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 3: on the road. He's just striking a lot of guys out.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 3: He's got nine strikeouts a piece in his last three outings.
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 3: Texas or yeah, Texas has actually won his last four
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 3: outings in a row. He's got still a reasonably low
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 3: hit rate here, his walk rates really low, he doesn't
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 3: walk guys, pretty high strikeout rate, And like I said,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 3: the weird thing is his home run rate is high,
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 3: and I find that to be really odd because his
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 3: ground ball rate is pretty high, so he's not a
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 3: fly ball pitcher. Usually you don't see guys like that
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 3: allowing a lot of home runs, So I don't know
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: what's going on with that. And this is a not
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 3: really a home run conduc of ballpark, so he's given
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 3: up too many home runs in this ballpark. But I
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 3: think it's a little bit fluky, and you knew this
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 3: was coming. He does pretty well against Anaheim in one
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 3: hundred and one of bats two thirty eight to average
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 3: six fifty one ops. Although the walk number is not
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 3: good here twenty two to eleven strike out walk ratio,
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 3: so maybe a little bit concerning there, but he generally
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 3: doesn't really walk that many guys. He did face Anaheim
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 3: in that series in Anaheim in May, and he pitched well.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 3: He went seven innings allot of three runs on five hits,
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 3: six strikeouts, two walks. So hopefully we get both starting
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 3: pitchers at their best in the first five here. They
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 3: both could potentially go deeper, you know what I mean. So,
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 3: I mean, if you wanted to go full game on this,
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 3: you might get deep starts from both starters here, and
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 3: maybe that will help avoid the bullpens a little bit here.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 3: But I'm focusing on where I think we get the
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 3: best edge here for the under Get the pitchers when
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 3: they're at their best in the first five with the
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 3: starters here, let's see what we're what is going on
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 3: with the money here. It's a very very public over.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 3: Eighty three percent of tickets eighty four percent of the
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 3: cash on the over, So I don't consider that to
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 3: be a market read indicated towards the over. I think
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 3: we're fading the public by taking some sort of under
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 3: in this one. Again, the total is low at seven,
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 3: so the oddsmakers think this is going to be a
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 3: pitching duel. Money is coming in a Texas for whatever
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 3: that's worth there at minus one forty or so. But
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 3: I think Dettmars is a little bit under the raidar Man.
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 3: As I mentioned, e Evaldi's the more name pitchers, so
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 3: I think Evaldi you usually have to pay a little
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 3: bit more for him eighty one percent of tickets, ninety
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 3: three percent of the cash on Texas. I mean Texas
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 3: is the better team though in general, but maybe there
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 3: is some value looking towards Anaheim in the first five,
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 3: just because it might be a close pitching duel. Dettmvers
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 3: is solid, Denver's is dominant against Texas, like I said,
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 3: so backing Denver's in the first five is an underdog.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 3: I could see an argument for that as well, So
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 3: but I'm going under first five there. No, I would
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 3: not pay minus one forty five for that. At four
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 3: that's uh, that is definitely juicy. I would pay maybe
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 3: minus one thirty to get it minus one forty five
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 3: is ridiculous. All right, Arizona and San Diego, those are
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 3: my only plays. By the way, these teams are finishing
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 3: a series again. Well no, no, it's not an avoiding
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 3: sweep spot minus. San Diego won the last two games.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 3: But this is a four game series and Arizona won
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 3: the first game, so San Diego's won the last two.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 3: Both teams probably show up for this. I mean, it's
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 3: a divisional series. These teams are close in the standings.
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 3: They're way behind the Dodgers. Though Arizona us four Elaite
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 3: pitchers yesterday. San Diego is the better bullpen. They only
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 3: us two, so they've been struggling a little bit out
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 3: of the bullpen recently, but I think it was because
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 3: they were unrested. They rank thirteenth. San Diego is I
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 3: think they're a better bullpen than that. Arizona's six, but
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 3: they have the worst bullpen e RA. I still think
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 3: San Diego is the better of these two bullpens here.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 3: I'm getting the right teams here, I think I am. Yes,
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 3: we have two NL West matchups going here, but the
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 3: last one is actually a new series. The only new
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 3: series today. This one is a continuation of a series.
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 3: We have two offenses that are struggling here. San Diego's
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 3: dead last in offense based on ops, Arizona's twenty fifth.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 3: Not good. This pitching matchup, though, I'm I mean, I
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 3: know we're in a pitcher friendly park in San Diego.
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 3: I know these offenses haven't been doing well, but this
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 3: pitching matchup looks pretty ugly. Merril Kelly's pitching for the Diamondbacks.
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 3: I mean, this guy, I don't know what to say
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 3: about him. Man, He's had a decent career. This year
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 3: he's been awful, so his career might be over, dude,
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 3: I don't know sad to say, but he's never been
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 3: this bad before, and this year he's been awful. Five
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 3: point seven to one ERA, one point five to six WHIP.
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 3: He's better on the road, though, four point six to
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 3: seven Roady Ray. And it's a pitcher friendly environment here,
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 3: so he might pitch a little bit better here. He
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 3: was a little bit better last time out at home
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 3: against Milwaukee, but I mean, he's been pitching so poorly
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 3: that that looks like more of an outlier to me.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 3: He's got a high hit rate, pretty high walk rate,
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 3: a lot of home runs, a lot a really low
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 3: strikeout rate. He's not doing anything well here, so you know,
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 3: I don't really want to back him here though. Actually
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 3: he doesn't even do that well against Sandy. They have
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 3: one hundred and forty six at bats against him. Two
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 3: forty seven average isn't too high, but seven sixty three
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 3: ops is higher than that seven fifty threshold that I use.
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 3: Thirty three to twelve straight out walk ratio is also
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 3: not particularly good. So yeah, I think Kelly could give
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 3: something up in this game, and Griffin Canning is on
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 3: the other side. I will caveat this by saying that
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 3: San Diego has put an opener in front of Canning
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 3: multiple times, so they might do that again here. So
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 3: if you're gonna play this game, you could probably already
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 3: tell I think that the over is the way to
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 3: play this game, and if you do that, I might
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 3: just go action because I think it is going to
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 3: be Canning in this game. But I think he's gonna
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 3: come in after an opener. That's what they've been doing.
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 3: I mean, you guys made fun of me for saying
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 3: that Canning was gonna pitch. I'm like, dude, he's going
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 3: to pitch. He's pitched on a regular schedule for most
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 3: of the season at this point, and they still have
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 3: not you know, benched him or anything. He's going to pitch.
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 3: He's bad. A six point seven to one ERA, one
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 3: point six to one whip. He has been a little
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 3: bit better at home six point h eight homyra, which
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 3: is still really bad considering this is a pitcher friendly park.
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 3: Six ERA is still terrible. Arizona actually doesn't hit him
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 3: that well. Fifty four of bats to twenty two average,
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 3: six to seventy ops, fourteen to six strike out walk ratio.
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 3: So Canning may actually have an advantage here in the
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 3: starting pitching. He is the one with the better numbers here.
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 3: I don't think i'd really want to back him, but
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 3: the money is kind of coming in on that side.
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 3: Minus won twenty six year whatever, minus won twenty five,
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 3: seventy two percent of ticket, seventy nine percent of the
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 3: cash on San Diego. Uh so the money is still
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 3: back in San Diego. Here. I think the over is
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 3: probably the better look, though I know Canning does have
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 3: decent matchup numbers here, but the money is definitely backing
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 3: the over. The total is reasonable at eight and a half,
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 3: which I know we're looking at a pictuer friendly park here.
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 3: But these pitchers are not friendly, uh to themselves. They're
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 3: friendly to the bats. Eight and a half juice to
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 3: the over, you get it below that key number nine.
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 3: So that's not too bad. Fifty nine percent of tickets
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 3: on the under, fifty eight percent of the cash on
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 3: the over. So why would you back San Diego's bats?
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 3: They have they have literally are the worst offense in
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 3: Major League Baseball. So, no, that is not what they're doing.
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 3: They're they're fading the pit o they're well I think
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 3: they're they're fading Merrill Kelly is what they're doing. Canning,
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 3: I don't know at Canning. I mean, he's going to
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 3: be on some team next year. He's always somewhere, you know,
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 3: until until he retires. He's going to probably be somewhere
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 3: in the majors. He'll be whatever. He'll be a spot starter,
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 3: he'll be a long relief man. He was on Anaheim
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 3: before this. I don't know what. I don't know what
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 3: else to say. He's been in the league for a
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 3: long time. Uh and he's still there. But yeah, I
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 3: think the over is the right way to look at
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 3: that game. And then we have a new series starting
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 3: with Colorado and San Francisco. San Francisco's got some advantages here.
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 3: They're staying at home. They just looked really bad yesterday
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 3: against Toronto, and I was correct that that game went over,
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 3: but it was completely lopsided. Webb was terrible, and I
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 3: pointed out that Web has really bad numbers against Toronto,
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 3: so Web was awful. But Dylan Cease almost threw a
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 3: no hitter in the game. I thought Dylan Cease might
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 3: not be great in the game, but he was. He dominated.
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 3: I think he threw a complete game yesterday, but he
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 3: did give up a hit in I think the eighth
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 3: inning or something, but I think they left him in
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 3: to finish the game. So really good start from don't cease.
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 3: San Francisco might bounce back here, man, after just a
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 3: horrific ten nothing lost yesterday at home, staying at home,
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 3: and Colorado could be in a hangover spot because they're
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 3: coming in here from a huge series against the Dodgers
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 3: and having to travel up from LA. This is not
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 3: good for Colorado here, you know what I mean. So yeah,
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 3: I think Colorado could be hungover after they almost beat
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers. They close games in all of those games,
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 3: they almost won the series. Don't see. It's definitely doing
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 3: really well this season, doing a lot better than he
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 3: did last year with San Diego. I still think he's
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 3: too wild, though his walk issues are an issue now.
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 3: The problem with back in San Francisco in this game
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 3: is we have no idea who they starting pitcher. I
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 3: thought it was Raised turning the rotation, but it looks
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 3: like it's not going to be him. He pitched five
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 3: days ago, so maybe because they haven't had like a
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 3: day of rest, they might be pushing him back and
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 3: they want to rest him or something. So I don't
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 3: know what's going on here, but the starting pitching actually
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 3: does not look good for Sanisco here, I'm given we
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 3: have no idea what's going to be. And I don't
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 3: really love either bullpen. I mean, Colorado is work. San
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 3: Francisco's bullpen they haven't been good. The site is not
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 3: working for me. Fuck you am I still alive here?
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 3: What's going on? Colorado on these two relief pitchers y day?
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 3: San Francisco used too as well. Colorado's they're bad out
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 3: of the bullpen, they're twenty seventh, San Francisco's twenty fourth.
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 3: They haven't been good either, but they're not that bad offensively.
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 3: Colorado is number four, although I expect their offense to
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 3: go down on the road in a pitcher friendly park
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 3: like San Diego or excuse me, San Francisco. Both of
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 3: those are pitcher friendly parks. San Francisco's thirteenth in offense,
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 3: tied with Houston and Atlanta. But I don't buy it.
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 3: I still don't think they're a good offense. They got
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 3: completely shut out yesterday and then they have three runs
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 3: in the last two games. Now, the interesting thing, you know,
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 3: I mentioned Ryan Feltner yesterday. I thought that the Rockies
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 3: should have just let him pitch against the Dodgers because
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 3: he actually had decent numbers against the Dodgers and he's
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 3: actually the Rockies' best pitcher probably, But whoever they went
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 3: with yesterday, that young guy apparently actually did okay for
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 3: the Rockies yesterday. But Feldner is not that bad four
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 3: point two seventy RA and one point two two whip.
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 3: He's actually worse on the road four point five eight
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 3: rodio rate. He's worse away from corse Field. That doesn't
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 3: make any sense, but I think he can pitch well
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 3: in San Francisco. He just faced San Francisco in Colorado
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 3: and he was really good. Went six innings, two runs,
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 3: two earn runs, allowed six hits, no walks, nine strikeouts.
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 3: So yeah, he pitched well in that outing. Probably miss
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 3: San Francisco just saw him. So the recent familiarity might
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 3: help San Francisco here. They might be able to hit
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 3: him better this next time. But I'm gonna throw that
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 3: out a little bit because obviously San Francisco is not
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 3: unfamiliar with them. You know, Feltner's been around for a while.
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 3: San Francisco's seen a lot of them, So I don't
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 3: think that's gonna help them that much. They have sixty
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 3: eight at bats against them, and they have not done well.
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 3: One ninety one average, five oh five ohps, nineteen to
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 3: three strike out walk ratio, so Feltner has pretty much
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 3: dominated them. He has a low hit rate on the season,
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 3: his walk rate is too high, his strike out rate
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 3: is low. He's not good, but you know, I mean
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 3: on the on the Colorado Rockies curve, Yeah, he's not bad,
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 3: and I think he draws a pretty good matchup here.
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 3: So I do not want to fade Feltner here. The
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 3: money is actually back in Colorado here, even though I
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 3: think it's a bad spot coming off that Dodgers game
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 3: in San Francisco in a potential bounce back here staying
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 3: at home. The spot looks way better for San Francisco.
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 3: But the starting pitching, yeah, you have to favor Colorado
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 3: in the starting pitching. Man. Whatever San Francisco is gonna
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 3: do here, I don't think it's gonna be good, even
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 3: if it's Robbie Ray. I actually don't think Robbie Ray
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 3: does well against Colorado either, although he is better at home.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 3: But yeah, even if it's Robbie Ray, I don't really
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 3: love it for San Francisco. They're at minus one thirty
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 3: something here on the money line, sixty five percent of tickets,
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 3: sixty percent of the cash on San Francisco, so the
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 3: money's fading them. The money's also playing the over a
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 3: little bit. But it is public at eight or eight
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 3: and a half. I think it sounds insane, you know,
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 3: I really don't like the spot for Colorado, But based
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 3: on the pitching here, I think Colorado first five makes
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 3: some sense. I mean, I would avoid their bullpen obviously,
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 3: but Colorado first five I think makes some sense in
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 3: that game, and you get them as a little bit
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 3: of an underdog. So that's it for the baseball board. Here.
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 3: We got some WNBA here, a couple of games on
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 3: Amazon Prime. I think it's a doubleheader. I think WNBA
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 3: games take about two hours. The first game up is
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 3: the game that I was eyeing the most.
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 4: Here.
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 3: San Francisco is spending money on Devers will. They traded
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 3: for him, but they will have to pay some amount
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 3: of his contract. The Red Sox wanted to get rid
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 3: of his contract. I thought that was a good trade
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 3: for the Red Sox. Devers. I don't think he's good, dude.
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 3: I think he's a bad clubhouse presence. I think the
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 3: Red Sox had to get rid of them. But the problem.
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 3: It was a good trade, but the Red Sox got
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 3: rid of all the good pieces of it. They traded
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 3: TIBs immediately, and he's raking as far as I know
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 3: in Triple A right now for the Dodgers. He's good.
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 3: And they traded away Kyle Harrison, and we see what
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 3: he's doing for Milwaukee. The Red Sox got both of
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 3: those guys, and they got Jordan Hicks. I know he sucks.
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 3: I don't even know where he is now. He's somewhere,
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 3: some team has him in their bullpen, but whatever. Yeah,
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 3: I mean it was that trade was actually good for
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox, but the ensuing trades where they got
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 3: rid of TIBs and Harrison, those were fucking stupid as fuck.
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 3: They got basically not They got Caleb Durban out of
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 3: the Harrison trade. I mean, he's been alright, he's been
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 3: hitting well recently. At least he's a good fielder. I guess.
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 3: So there is that, and then uh and the Red
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 3: Sox do have an abundance of pitching, so I guess
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 3: I'll give them that, but Harrison would be like one
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 3: of their top pitchers if they had him. And you know, TIBs,
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 3: I mean the Red Sox could use a good inning
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 3: outfielder here. Well no, I mean, like I said, they got,
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 3: they got like a really really high level prospect in
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 3: the outfield and TIBs and then they immediately traded them away.
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 3: They got a really good starting pitcher in Kyle Harrison,
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 3: and they traded them away. So that's what they got
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 3: in that trade. But then in the ensuing trades they
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 3: got rid of everybody good that they got in that trade.
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 3: Tibbs and Harrison are both really good players. Anyway, WNBA
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 3: Seattle and Atlanta, this is the game that I was
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 3: eyeing as a potential play here. I think Atlanta's got
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 3: to be in a bounced back spot here. They're sitting
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 3: at twelve and nine. They are not that bad. Atlanta
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 3: might be the second best team in the East behind
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 3: New York. This Atlanta team is pretty good. They're dangerous.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 3: They've now lost five in a row, but four of
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 3: them are on the road on the Pacific Coast. One
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 3: of them was in a return home spot, and I
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 3: liked Atlanta in that game. But you know, the return
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 3: home spot is always difficult, which is why I avoided it.
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 3: And out of those losses, three of the five I
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 3: were against Golden State. Golden State's good, dude, So you know,
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 3: by the way, you know, shout out to SAB. I
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 3: was wrong about the Minnesota game yesterday. They won, but
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 3: they didn't cover and they didn't deserve to cover either,
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 3: so he was correct about that. But we both were
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 3: right the best play. I was obviously correct that the
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 3: best play was La last night. That was an easy winner. Anyway,
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 3: Atlanta This has got to be the bounce back spot here, dude.
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 3: They return home, and you know I talk about when
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 3: a team returns home and they don't do well, a
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 3: lot of times they bounce back with authority in the
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 3: next game. And they're not gonna overlook Seattle, even though
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 3: Seattle is a bad team. You're not gonna overlook somebody
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 3: when you've lost five games in a row. They haven't
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 3: played since Saturday, so they have some rest here to
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 3: break this losing streak, and they lost to Seattle during
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 3: that road trip, so they're gonna focus on Seattle, dude,
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 3: because they're not gonna let that happen again. And they
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 3: were horrible. Atlanta's a very good defensive team, and they
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 3: give up one hundred and five points in that game.
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 3: There's no way they give one hundred and five points again.
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 3: That game. One oh five to ninety really one hundred
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 3: and ninety five points. And by the way, the total
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 3: in this game is where's it at? It's at one
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 3: sixty six, one sixty seven and a half. It's already
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 3: dropped from one sixty nine. So there's a lot of
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 3: money playing the under here, and I agree with that too.
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 3: So because that last game was so ridiculous at one
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 3: ninety five. Nobody's gonna play this game under one sixty whatever.
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 3: But you've already lost some value on it. But I
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 3: do like the under, So I like the under here.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 3: But still I actually still think the better way to
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 3: play this is actually to lay the points with Atlanta
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 3: though That's what I was looking at. So I do
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 3: like the under, but you've lost some value on it.
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I think Atlanta minus the points is the
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 3: way to play this. They're not gonna lose again. The
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 3: reason they lost that game in Seattle. I mean, look
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 3: at how bad that spot was. They just played two
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 3: tough games in Golden State. We lost one of them
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 3: on the show. I know they didn't zig zag. They
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 3: should have won that game, but then they had to
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 3: play the night in Seattle, so they were gonna back
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 3: to back. They were playing a fourth game in six days.
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 3: I mean, look at how bad that spot was for Atlanta.
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 3: That's why they lost that game. They're not gonna lose
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 3: to Seattle again, even if Seattle tries to get up
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 3: for this game. Seattle's coming in from the Pacific coast,
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 3: so they're having to travel cross country, which I know
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 3: that's worse when you're going east to west, as I
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 3: always say, because you have to play a late night
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 3: game where it's playing an earlier game on your biological clock.
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 3: Is not that bad. But Seattle just upset La. They
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 3: pulled off a twenty point upset basically, or whatever it was.
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 3: I don't know how many they won by, almost twenty,
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 3: they won by eighteen. I don't know how much of
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 3: an underdog they were in that game, but they were
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 3: definitely an underdog and they pulled off that upset. I
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 3: don't think they're gonna do it twice in a row.
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 3: I like Atlanta here. Atlanta's getting the money. They're at
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 3: ten and a half. You know, I think that price
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 3: is actually reasonable. Nobody's gonna want to lay that with
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 3: how bad Atlanta's been playing recently. Nobody's gonna double digits
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 3: with a team that's lost five games in a row
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 3: and they just lost to Seattle. Nobody's gonna People are
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 3: not gonna be like, oh, Atlanta's lost five in a
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 3: row and Seattle beat them outright, let me lay ten
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 3: and a half with Atlanta here. No, it looks like
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 3: it's kind of an anti public play to me. Seventy
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 3: nine percent of the tickets though ninety four percent of
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 3: the cash. Yeah, I think that's the best play on
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 3: the board. I almost put it on my card. I
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 3: like it. I don't quite want to get there with it,
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 3: but yeah, I would lay the points with Atlanta in
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 3: that one. No, they're not. No w NBA team is
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 3: better than any NBA team, not even close. The Hawks
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 3: would be like a forty point favorite if they played,
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 3: if they played the Dream, I don't even I'm not
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 3: even really exaggerating like that. That should be basically the
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 3: number if they played each other. Indiana at Phoenix is
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 3: the other Amazon Prime game. Yes, I said Indiana, and
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 3: we faded them last night, so yes, that means they're
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 3: on a bet to back. This is gonna be a
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 3: game where both teams are gonna show up. But remember
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 3: these two teams played two games in a row in
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 3: Indiana back in late June and it got really, really spicy,
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 3: and that was, you know, the second game. I think
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 3: it was the one where Caitlyn Clark got injured and
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 3: Alyssa whatever the hell her name is, leaned On Alyssa
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 3: Thomas I think is her name. Landed On leaned On
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 3: Caitlyn Clark's neck. So you know these teams are both
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 3: probably gonna show up for this game. Phoenix just took
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 3: a pretty ugly loss at home to Chicago. Now they're
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 3: staying at home. They do it Vegas next. But I
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 3: don't think they're gonna overlook Indiana. Indiana won or excuse
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 3: the Indiana won the first game of those two games
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 3: against Phoenix and then lost the last game. Yes, I
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 3: know I gave. I gave out a play on La
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 3: in that game, and I gave out all the reasons
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 3: why Clark didn't even play. Clark only played nineteen minutes,
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 3: so she didn't She didn't exactly suck, just didn't give
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 3: her minutes because she was coming back from an injury
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 3: and the game was completely out of hand. That was
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 3: yesterday's game. They lost by fourteen. We got an easy
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 3: win with LA plus the points there. Indiana, I mean,
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 3: they're on a back to back, so it is difficult.
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 3: They're playing a third game in five days or whatever
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 3: this is, so I know that's difficult too. I don't
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 3: think they're gonna overlook Phoenix though, because Phoenix is the
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 3: team that injured Clark. Clark might get more minutes here,
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 3: and like I said, they did at least rest her.
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 3: She only played nineteen minutes yesterday and normally she's gonna
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 3: give you like thirty minutes. So I think part of
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 3: that was because they knew that this game was upcoming.
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 3: And by the way, I forgot to mention that as
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 3: part of the handicup, I mentioned it would be a
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 3: look ahead to Phoenix, but I forgot to mention it
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 3: was going to be a back to back where a
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 3: lot of times you start load managing. So I think
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 3: this is the game that Indiana wants out of the
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 3: two more so so I actually think Indiana might play
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 3: better here. But I think both teams are gonna try
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 3: to bounce back here. So I'm not gonna be involved
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 3: in this game. This game is really hard to handicap.
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 3: Phoenix is minus one and a half. The money looks
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 3: like it is backing Phoenix Indiana. Sixty percent of tickets,
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 3: fifty eight percent of the cash on Indiana. So they're
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 3: a little bit public here. I mean, Phoenix is not
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 3: as bad as the record looks, and I think the
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 3: public is on Indiana, not just because Clark is the
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 3: biggest name here and they know that she's back, but
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 3: Indiana's got the better record, right, So it looks kind
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 3: of misleading, like why would I lay Phoenix as a
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 3: favorite here when Indiana has the better record. The oddsmakers
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 3: are telling you Indiana is a slightly better team here,
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 3: but Phoenix is definitely not as bad as their record looks. However,
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 3: obviously I don't like Phoenix because they're out there intentionally
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 3: injuring Caitlin Clark. So I'll root for Indiana, but you know,
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 3: I would probably slightly lean towards Phoenix in that game,
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 3: but not by much. Vegas and Portland is the last game.
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 3: This is a pretty uninteresting game. Portland just ended a
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 3: three game losing streak by beating Seattle on the road,
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 3: but not a big deal. I think that was their
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 3: first game out of the break too, so Portland is
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 3: fairly well rested here. They haven't played since Thursday, or excuseay,
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 3: since Saturday. Excusey, today's Thursday. Now, Portland, it looks like
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 3: they're returning home from a road trip, but don't be fooled,
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 3: they're not, because remember the Commissioner's Cup break was in there,
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 3: so I'm pretty sure they went home during the break,
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 3: So they actually returned home after losing to Washington. Then
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 3: they went back out on the road for a single
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 3: game at Seattle. Now they're coming home from that, so
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 3: I don't think this is a complete road trip return,
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 3: you know what I mean. Plus, they have a bunch
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 3: of days off to kind of get over it, gets
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 3: settled whatever. And I don't think they're gonna overlook Vegas.
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 3: They played against Vegas here on June eleventh and they
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 3: lost one oh five to eighty nine, So Vegas might
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 3: overlook Portland a bit here. Vegas of the returning champs.
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 3: I mean, pretty much every opponent of Vegas is going
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 3: to show up for a game against Vegas. Vegas, though,
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 3: they did just have an embarrassing loss against the Caitlin
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 3: clarkless version of Indiana. But remember Vegas was without their
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 3: best player, Asia Wilson in that game. So now the
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 3: question is going to be is Asia Wilson going to
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 3: be back? Now? Generally I would say Vegas should bounce
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 3: back here after that, So I think both teams might
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 3: show up with some focus because that was a really
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 3: embarrassing loss by Vegas, so I think maybe they will
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 3: show up and bounce back from that. But it might
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 3: be a reverse injured player spot. We have to know
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 3: if Wilson is playing or not. She's listed as out,
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 3: but they have a lot of players listed as out,
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 3: but I think Wilson is really the only pertinent one.
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 3: She's questionable, so we got to keep an eye on
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 3: this man. She's listed as maybe coming back in this game,
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 3: but I don't know, So that's somebody to keep an
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 3: eye on. She's a huge part of Vegas. Like she's
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 3: one of the best players in the league. She's like
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 3: a force down low. She's their big woman, if you
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 3: want to put it that way. They should win against
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 3: Portland without her, but both teams are gonna show up,
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 3: and you know, Vegas is probably gonna be a little
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 3: bit overvalued here. Now. I would wait just to see
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 3: what the news is and if Wilson comes back. I
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 3: think that actually makes this a better play on Portland. Now,
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 3: the public is playing Vegas eighty three percent of the
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 3: tickets on them sixty six percent of the cash, so
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 3: the money's indicating towards Portland. I wouldn't really disagree with Portland,
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 3: but I think the best way to play Portland is
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 3: to wait and if Wilson comes back, watch this line
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 3: go up a little bit, and you might get double
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 3: digits on Portland. I think that might be what I
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 3: would do. I would wait for the reverse injured player
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 3: spot to take effect, because you know that in reverse
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 3: injured player spot, you know, like I always talk about that,
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 3: the team is always overvalued when their best player comes
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 3: back and they have to work her back in and
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 3: they're now used to playing without her, so the chemistry,
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 3: you know, might be off and whatever. Uh So that's
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 3: the the way that I would look at that game.
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 3: But I still don't like it well enough because I
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 3: think both teams might still show up like Vegas coming
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 3: off an ugly loss, might not overlook whoever their next
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 3: opponent is. But it would be for me a slight
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 3: lean towards Portland if you get the extra number on them.
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 3: I don't know. It didn't crash, did it. I have
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 3: no idea. I don't know Internet issues. Maybe it's on
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 3: your end. I have no idea. World Cup will be
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 3: in action today with one game in the afternoon at
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 3: four pm. I don't have a play on this, but
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be interesting. It's in Foxboro, mass France. I
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 3: think last played in New Jersey or Philadelphia or something.
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 3: So they're staying in the northeast Morocco. I believe is
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 3: coming in from Texas, so France has a little bit
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 3: of a travel edge. But this is gonna get interesting, man.
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 3: This game's on Fox Telemundo Fox won. Everybody's picking France
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 3: to win the whole thing, dude, So I obviously I
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 3: did not pick France in my bracket for that reason.
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 3: I think France was being overpicked, even if I think
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 3: France is the best team in the in the world.
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 3: What do you What the fuck do you mean? You
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 3: can't hear me? My mic is on What the fuck? Dude?
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 3: Are you serious? There's nothing I could do about this.
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 3: It looks fine on my end. France, Uh, they should
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 3: win this game, but I'm not convinced that they're going to.
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 3: They're the best team in the world at this point.
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 3: We know that, but I don't think they're gonna win
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 3: it all. I didn't pick them in my bracket. They're
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 3: overpicked and there's a chance they go down right here. Man. Now,
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 3: this is uh, it is my internet to do. I
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 3: don't know what. I don't know what to tell you, Like,
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 3: everything seems fine on my end here, everything's loading for me.
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 3: I don't know what to tell you. I can't do
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 3: anything on my end anyway. France knock Morocco out in
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 3: the last World Cup, so there is a little bit
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 3: of a revenge mode of here for Morocco. I believe
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 3: that was in the semifinals. Morocco made the semifinals four
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 3: years ago. France beat them and then lost to Argentina
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 3: in the final, so I think Morocco that was a
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 3: I believe France won that game two to nothing, by
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 3: the way, if I'm not mistaken, and I think Morocco
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 3: may have a little bit of revenge on mind after that.
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 3: So Morocco, you know they're not gonna go away quietly.
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 3: I think they're better than people think they are. Although
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 3: I don't think Morocco has all the same players from
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 3: back then. I think some of their players are no
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 3: longer there. France, I mean, they were better than they
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 3: looked against Paraguay, So I know I took a loss
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 3: on that game. I thought France was gonna win the
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 3: game more easily, but if you look at what happened
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 3: in this game, France actually didn't put up that much
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 3: offense in this game. Paraguay did nothing. I mean Paraguay,
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 3: they were expected to score zero in the game. They
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 3: did nothing offensively, they scored zero. That was expected. France
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 3: though they were at one point four five expected goals,
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 3: so you know, they weren't really expected to score that
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 3: much the way they played in that game. So France
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 3: has not put up a lot of offense recently, so
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 3: maybe that's not great for France. Although Morocco, they were
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 3: not as good as it looks against Canada. Beating Canada
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 3: is not that impressive, but what I will say is
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 3: Morocco was coming out a huge win that went into
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 3: penalties over the Netherlands, so I think Morocco was in
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 3: a letdown spot or something after that. I mean that
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 3: game probably took a lot out of them beating the Netherlands.
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 3: So it is still impressive they were able to beat
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 3: Canada three to nothing, even though Canada is not good.
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 3: But if you dig into that box score a bit,
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 3: Morocco is not very good in this game. Like the
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 3: game was expected to be basically one to one on
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 3: the expected goals, both teams were below one expected goals.
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 3: Canada actually won the expected goals very slightly and Morocco
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 3: only won fifty five percent of the possession, so or
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 3: had fifty five percent of the possession. Was not anywhere
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 3: near as good as it looked in that game. And
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 3: that's what worries me about Morocco here, because I like
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 3: Morocco in this game, I wanted to maybe find some
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 3: way of playing Morocco. But you know, if you look
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 3: at what happened in the in the last games, France
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 3: was about as good as it looked in their game,
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 3: and Morocco was better than they looked in that game.
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 3: But Morocco did beat the Netherlands. And France has only
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 3: played US, Sweden, and Paraguay so far, and actually France
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 3: is actually you know, I mean, they've actually had it
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 3: pretty easy in the World Cups so far. Senegal, I know,
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 3: Senegal is not that easy to beat, but they did that.
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 3: Iraq is just a dorm mat and then remember they
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 3: played Norway's backups, so that really wasn't what it looked like.
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 3: And then they beat Sweden, who's not really that great,
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 3: and then Paraguay is pretty bad to be honest. So France,
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 3: you know, they're probably a little bit overvalued. Everybody thinks
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 3: that they're gonna win the whole thing. They're minus won
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 3: seventy five here on the three way line. I think
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 3: they were about minus three hundreds something to advance here.
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 3: You know, I was looking to find a way to
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 3: play Morocco. Now, Morocco in international play, Morocco, they have
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 3: not lost a game in the first ninety minutes in
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 3: regular time since last August. So Morocco has gone almost
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 3: an entire year in international play. Although I know they
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 3: aren't really that many international games, but it's a decent
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 3: amount of games, although it includes you know, friendlies and
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 3: stuff like that don't really matter. But that entire span,
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 3: Morocco has not lost a game in regular time. Think
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 3: about that. That's pretty crazy. So that means at the
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 3: end of ninety minutes, Morocco was Morocco had won the
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 3: game or it was a draw at that point. So
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 3: that bodes well for Morocco as an underdog here. The
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 3: question was like, how do we play Morocco as an
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 3: underdog here? And you know, I mean I didn't really
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 3: see a price that I really loved on this, so
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 3: like you have to look at like the spread market basically, right,
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 3: because they're a big enough underdog that the spread market
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 3: is probably the way to look here. France is a
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 3: bit of a public side by the way, a lot
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 3: of people seem to be laying the France money line
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 3: in the first ninety minutes here, So I think if
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 3: you play Morocco, you're fading the public here. Now I
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 3: look at the spread. The problem with the spread is
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 3: that your two options are to take Morocco plus to
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 3: have run, plus to have goals. Sorry I said run,
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 3: I'm in baseball mode. Plus to have goal at plus
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 3: one thirty five or plus one and a half at
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 3: minus two one hundred or so here. So obviously the
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 3: better price is on the plus half goal, and that
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 3: is probably where I land on this game if I
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 3: was gonna play this, or look at the wind draw
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 3: market and see if it's a better number, because it's
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 3: the same thing. Either Morocco plus to have goal in
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 3: the first ninety minutes or the wind draw market in
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 3: the first ninety minutes. That's what I would do. And
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 3: you're gonna find a price at about plus one thirty
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 3: something on Morocco, and you're gonna need them to be
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 3: either be winning at the end of ninety minutes, which
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 3: you mean that they'd advance if they did that, or
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 3: it's gonna need to be tied. But I told you,
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 3: Morocco has not had any game where they've been behind
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 3: at the ninety minute mark in the last year. And yes,
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 3: I understand France is probably the best team in the
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 3: world right now, but Morocco, you know, this is the
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 3: way they trend, and based on what these teams look
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 3: like in their last game, this could be a low
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 3: scoring game. So I also wouldn't disagree with an under
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 3: the two and a half. I think you have to
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 3: pay a little bit of juice for it. I think
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 3: under two and a half in the ninety minutes is
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 3: like minus one fifteen. Yeah, under makes some sense to
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 3: me too, but I think Morocco plus a half goal
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 3: at plus one thirty or something might be a way
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 3: to play this thing. And you know, if you lose it,
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 3: you know at least you're playing an underdog price, so
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 3: you're if you're playing to win the same amount that
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 3: you're playing your other bets to win, at least you
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 3: won't lose that much money on it. Now. The other thing,
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 3: which I got to mention because I ref and sit
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 3: on my other shows. Every ref in this game is
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 3: from Argentina. Uh, yeah, that's the case. In this game,
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 3: all of the refs are from Argentina. What does that mean?
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 3: It might mean the refts are gonna be biased against France.
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 3: I'm not saying that this thing is rigged, but you know,
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 3: or possibly rigged. People are you know, the narrative out
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 3: there is that this whole thing is rigged towards Argentina. Well,
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 3: you know, if that's the case, these Argentinian refs they
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 3: probably want France gone, especially because well Argentina beat France
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 3: in the final in twenty twenty two, and France obviously
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 3: is gonna be the team to beat. They're the team
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 3: to beat in the World Cups. So if you like Argentina,
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 3: and you know how crazy soccer fans are, if you
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 3: have an entire reping crew from Argentina, do would you
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 3: really put it past them to skew the results here
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 3: in favor of Morocco here against France because the they
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 3: want France out to weaken the field. I wouldn't put
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 3: it past them at all. Now, I'm not saying that
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 3: Argentina's gonna win the whole thing, although I did talk
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 3: about when I filled out my bracket that Argentina's path
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 3: was pretty easy, and there wasn't just there just wasn't
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 3: really any leverage on Argentina. For me, it was either
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 3: like basically Argentina was getting picked at almost exactly their
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 3: probability rate, you know what I mean. So I went
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 3: with England to get positive leverage. And I still think
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 3: England's being very overlooked here. But yeah, I mean it's
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 3: very odd to me. I think it's unprecedented. The entire
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 3: refin crew are all from a country that's also in
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 3: the World Cup still somewhere else, you know what I mean.
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 3: So the Argentinian reving crew might rig this game. That's
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 3: what I'm saying. It's something to be aware of, maybe
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 3: just another little reason to maybe look towards Morocco here.
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 3: It would not shock me, to be honest, that Morocco
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 3: was able to win this game. It would have shocked me.
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 3: I don't think they will. But my lean would be
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 3: in a Morocco plus to have run in the in
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 3: the first ninety minute plus to have goal, excuse me,
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 3: in the first ninety minutes, That's the way I would
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 3: do it, or the wind draw line if it's if
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 3: it's better. That's the way I would look. And obviously
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 3: if they do that, there's a chance they could win.
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 3: So that's gonna do it. My only plays for today
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 3: are Milwaukee Brewers on the run. Yeah, on the run
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 3: line in the full game, not the goal line. Oh god, no,
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 3: no sorry, the run line. No, the money line, dude,
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 3: I'm so fucked up right now. Milwaukee Brewers money line,
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 3: full game money line. You get a decent price on that,
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 3: and then I'm a little bit worried about it. But
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 3: under three and a half verst five in Anaheim and Texas,
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 3: let's get it done. We have to go to and
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 3: Oho to win today. I think I think if Milwaukee
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 3: wins and the under losers will will literally break even
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 3: on the day because it's an even money play on
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 3: the under. So that that's gonna do it. Man, Learn
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 3: it tone on Twitter. I have no voice. I gotta
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 3: get out of here. Learn it tone on Instagram, like,
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 3: subscribe to the channel here. We're really close to five hundred.
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 3: Let's get it. Listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker covered
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 3: in yuke My yuke channel on YouTube. I can't sing
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 3: right now, so I don't know what I'm gonna do
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 3: about that. I can't get my voice back. M dude,
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 3: Like I said, I might have to stop doing the show.
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 3: I mean, the All Star break for Baseball is coming up,
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 3: so I don't know what I'm gonna do. World Cup
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 3: will still be playing, w NBA will still be in action.
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 3: I don't I don't really want to skip the show,
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 3: but I don't know. I gotta figure out what I
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 3: want to do. I mean, you know, I gotta do
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 3: something to fix my voice. Paedreon dot com, slash learn
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 3: it toad, you can support me there. Loser Cast every
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 3: Tuesday night. We had Forrest Mommy on the other the
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 3: night it was fun. Go check that out and uh,
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 3: the New York Giants g spot podcast. That's gonna do it.
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 3: Thanks for hanging out. Everybody in peace.
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet. Don't you pay from the floor.
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 1: Your name steal mean something to somebody for show? Put
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me, now, hold.
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 2: On, hold on nothing nice, now, hold on, hold on.
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 2: Let me full.
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 4: That log bites hord, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on, stay with me now,