Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Gambling Recap | Week 1
Transcript
- 0:08Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
- 0:14Speaker 1: six ' five. We are part of the Action Network.
- 0:16Speaker 1: I'm Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Networks.
- 0:22Speaker 1: The first ever Sunday episode our Sunday Reacts show. I'm
- 0:29Speaker 1: going to bring on my co host, Simon Hunter in
- 0:33Speaker 1: a second. We are just wrapping up a gut right wrenching, heartbreaking,
- 0:39Speaker 1: disgusting beat as Patriots betters today at plus three and
- 0:45Speaker 1: a half. Everything went wrong, Everything that could happen, a
- 0:50Speaker 1: going against us happened. We're going to break down that
- 0:53Speaker 1: plus all the other bad beats, big wins, happy times.
- 0:59Speaker 1: This is the first ever Sunday episode we've done. We
- 1:03Speaker 1: always love rehashing our good bets or bad beats. What
- 1:06Speaker 1: made us want to puke, like just now, what made
- 1:10Speaker 1: us want to scream with happiness? And we didn't want
- 1:14Speaker 1: to wait until Tuesday to do that, So we're gonna
- 1:17Speaker 1: do that. We're gonna talk about if there's any early
- 1:19Speaker 1: lines for week two that we like. Reminder that means
- 1:23Speaker 1: there's three shows a week of The Favorites, all recording live.
- 1:27Speaker 1: The episode after this is one forty five pm on Tuesday.
- 1:29Speaker 1: Then we'll be back eleven am on Thursday. Tonight's episode.
- 1:34Speaker 1: We are live on YouTube. If you are watching on YouTube,
- 1:38Speaker 1: like subscribe. Also, do not think that because the season
- 1:43Speaker 1: has started, you can't still sign up four the one
- 1:46Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars season long Pick Them Contest. The contest
- 1:51Speaker 1: automatically drops your two worst scores after Thanksgiving week in
- 1:55Speaker 1: week twelve, so if you miss kick off today, you've
- 1:57Speaker 1: got time. Matt Mitchell wanted us to get to ten
- 2:00Speaker 1: thousand sign ups by kickoff today. We had nine, eight
- 2:04Speaker 1: hundred and eighty. I know we're gonna get to ten thousand.
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- 2:26Speaker 1: Go to favorites dot actionnetwork dot com to sign up
- 2:30Speaker 1: for free sign in. What a roller coaster of a day.
- 2:37Speaker 1: We are currently one in three in the contest. Not
- 2:39Speaker 1: our best start. We lost to Texas plus nine and
- 2:43Speaker 1: a half. I have a lot of thoughts on that.
- 2:44Speaker 1: The Steelers plus two and a half. Never in that one,
- 2:48Speaker 1: we won the Browns handily. We like the Browns to
- 2:50Speaker 1: win out right anyway. And the Pats plus three and
- 2:53Speaker 1: a half. We got the Jets two and a half
- 2:56Speaker 1: plus two and a half. Tomorrow night, we are set
- 3:00Speaker 1: from realizing the Patriots are going to lose this game.
- 3:03Speaker 1: Take me inside your head.
- 3:05Speaker 2: Yeah, I got a lot of things wrong. Bad read
- 3:08Speaker 2: on that Houston game. Their defense showed up like we thought,
- 3:11Speaker 2: but their offense just they never really in it right.
- 3:14Speaker 2: Never never felt like I had any faith. See anytime
- 3:17Speaker 2: CJ dropped back, it was just like, uh oh.
- 3:20Speaker 1: That's what I felt. Every time CCO dropped back, it
- 3:22Speaker 1: was like my heart was in my chest.
- 3:24Speaker 2: Oh h yeah, So like yeah, horrible feeling. Rock Party
- 3:29Speaker 2: basically beat the shit out of every hater he had
- 3:32Speaker 2: from this offseason. All this throwers looked in rhythm. He
- 3:34Speaker 2: made the right decisions. He always stepped up in the pocket.
- 3:37Speaker 2: Kenny Pickett was a complete opposite. I think they started
- 3:40Speaker 2: four straight or five straight three and outs, that Pittsburgh team,
- 3:43Speaker 2: And we talked about it. If that forty irost team
- 3:45Speaker 2: gets a lead and they can just feed McCaffrey. It's over.
- 3:48Speaker 2: So yeah, nothing's changed for the forty nine ers. They
- 3:51Speaker 2: might have lost their DC Demico Ryans, but they're still
- 3:54Speaker 2: top three, top four defense in this league. They're just
- 3:57Speaker 2: really well coached, and we learned a lot about. There's
- 4:00Speaker 2: a lot of teams we learned a lot about, but
- 4:02Speaker 2: I would say them and Tua really Rock Purty and
- 4:05Speaker 2: Tua really opened my eyes. Where Tua was brilliant today,
- 4:09Speaker 2: didn't have his best offensive tackle and the kid throws
- 4:12Speaker 2: for four and er fifty yards. So yeah, a couple
- 4:14Speaker 2: of those, you gotta swallow your pride and be like,
- 4:16Speaker 2: I was dead wrong, and I was dead wrong on
- 4:17Speaker 2: Rock Party and Tua today. So hurt that we left
- 4:20Speaker 2: out the Falcons, I said, I was gonna make us
- 4:22Speaker 2: take a favorite. I bitched out. We should have had
- 4:25Speaker 2: the Falcons in there. We should be two and three,
- 4:27Speaker 2: but now we got to wait for the Jets. So
- 4:29Speaker 2: we need the Jets. I don't want to start one
- 4:31Speaker 2: and four. That's really tough to start the season one
- 4:33Speaker 2: and four. But me and you were both pissed we
- 4:36Speaker 2: didn't have the Cardinals. We're both piss being to have
- 4:38Speaker 2: the bucks. We're both pissing to have the rams. Like
- 4:41Speaker 2: that's the teams we kind of love to bet, and yeah,
- 4:43Speaker 2: we got unlucky with the Colts, and sure we got
- 4:46Speaker 2: unluckyer with the Patriots, but it's like we got lucky
- 4:49Speaker 2: in other games, so it kind of evens it out.
- 4:50Speaker 2: But it just sucks the ones we put in the contest,
- 4:53Speaker 2: those are the ones that really matter. So I'll lick
- 4:55Speaker 2: my wounds tonight. I'll wake up and I'll watch a
- 4:57Speaker 2: Sunday game in the morning. But I can't make it.
- 4:59Speaker 2: I'm running. I think I'm going on forty eight hours
- 5:01Speaker 2: here straight.
- 5:02Speaker 1: As a reminder of the Favorites podcast is proudly presented
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- 5:08Speaker 1: Sign up with promo code action to get BET three
- 5:10Speaker 1: six five's exclusive sign up offer. Bet one dollar on
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- 5:25Speaker 1: Gambling problem call or text one eight hundred Gambler. As
- 5:28Speaker 1: I said, catch us on YouTube. Every episode of the
- 5:32Speaker 1: Favorites is live as it's happening right now. If you're
- 5:34Speaker 1: enjoying us on YouTube, give us a like, subscribe to
- 5:37Speaker 1: the Action Network. You two page. Look, you mentioned a
- 5:41Speaker 1: couple things right, Like the Colts were a game. They
- 5:50Speaker 1: were one of our last out. The Colts and Falcons
- 5:52Speaker 1: were our last out in this in this contest, and
- 5:56Speaker 1: what we decided to do was keep the because even
- 6:02Speaker 1: though the line had moved to one and a half,
- 6:05Speaker 1: we just thought the Browns could win outright, and then
- 6:07Speaker 1: we decided to go with the Jets. So the truth
- 6:09Speaker 1: is like we were never taking the Steelers out because
- 6:14Speaker 1: it was a classic Mike Tomlin spot. TJ. Watt, the
- 6:17Speaker 1: Niners have been bad in this spot. We got beat
- 6:20Speaker 1: by Brock Party. And you and I are going to
- 6:22Speaker 1: do something a YouTube only sort of short mini segment
- 6:28Speaker 1: ten twelve minutes where we're going to break down plays
- 6:32Speaker 1: that sort of killed us or helped us on a weekend.
- 6:36Speaker 1: We're gonna do that on Wednesday. There's a play from
- 6:40Speaker 1: the Steelers Niners game that as soon as it happened,
- 6:44Speaker 1: I knew we were losing that game, and I wrote
- 6:47Speaker 1: down that's going to be in the Favorites film session.
- 6:51Speaker 1: We were just wrong. We're just wrong. A brock Brock party.
- 6:53Speaker 1: But I don't feel bad about the Colts and the
- 6:55Speaker 1: Falcons because we felt so good about all the other games.
- 6:58Speaker 1: It just, you know, the Texans defense was fierce problem
- 7:04Speaker 1: with CJ. Shroud went backwards almost every single play.
- 7:10Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say every rookie quarterback will look like
- 7:13Speaker 2: a rookie quarterback, right. It's just it's really hard to
- 7:17Speaker 2: get first downs. And we talk all the time where
- 7:21Speaker 2: we make our living Bett and bad quarterbacks, Chad. So yeah,
- 7:24Speaker 2: people can get their licks in. This week we did bad,
- 7:27Speaker 2: but nothing will change Next week. We're going to take
- 7:30Speaker 2: the bad quarterbacks and we're going to take the teams
- 7:32Speaker 2: that underperform this week. So yeah, well, upcoming we'll talk
- 7:35Speaker 2: about some bets already made, but people won't be shocked
- 7:38Speaker 2: to know a lot of these bets we're going to make.
- 7:40Speaker 2: It's fading public perception of what just happened this past week.
- 7:43Speaker 2: So it's definitely one of those where I don't want
- 7:47Speaker 2: to overreact, but I am going to react and definitely
- 7:51Speaker 2: move the forty nine ers right back up above the
- 7:53Speaker 2: Cowboys that they're just right behind the Eagles right now,
- 7:56Speaker 2: So those two are just clearly the best team. And yeah,
- 8:00Speaker 2: boys come out tonight and win by forty points on
- 8:02Speaker 2: the road against the Giants. I can revisit that, but
- 8:06Speaker 2: it feels like, you know, it's just one of those weekends.
- 8:09Speaker 2: The public had a good week, right Like, there weren't
- 8:12Speaker 2: any major upsets. Everyone moved on a survivor like Houston.
- 8:16Speaker 2: Houston didn't really upset the Ravens. They even come close
- 8:19Speaker 2: to it. We had to sweat with our commanders, and
- 8:23Speaker 2: I just kept saying myself, I'm so glad we took
- 8:25Speaker 2: the commanders. Now we never have to worry about the
- 8:28Speaker 2: Commanders winning the rest of the year. So definitely feels
- 8:31Speaker 2: good to get that one checked off. But yeah, pretty
- 8:34Speaker 2: chalky week the books. The books probably got kind of
- 8:37Speaker 2: beat up. Every favorite pretty much performed just a level
- 8:41Speaker 2: people predicted. People bet the Jags heavily, they bet the
- 8:45Speaker 2: Eagles pretty heavily, and both came through for them. So
- 8:48Speaker 2: definitely definitely a good weekend for the public.
- 8:50Speaker 1: You know, after watching these games, I have notes on
- 8:56Speaker 1: all the games that we sort of put into the contest,
- 8:58Speaker 1: and you know, New England I think played better most
- 9:04Speaker 1: of the game. They probably should have won this game.
- 9:08Speaker 1: Giving up a pick six and a fumble in the
- 9:10Speaker 1: red zone in the first ten minutes of the game
- 9:13Speaker 1: is not conducive to winning. Multiple holding calls on a
- 9:17Speaker 1: drive when you were getting close to field goal range
- 9:21Speaker 1: at least to get within a couple points late in
- 9:23Speaker 1: the game is not conducive. I thought Bill O'Brien and
- 9:26Speaker 1: Bill Belichick were great in the game plan seconds. There
- 9:32Speaker 1: is that much to say. We said it Steelers, not
- 9:35Speaker 1: much to say Browns. It's interesting to me. We love
- 9:41Speaker 1: the Browns. We've bet the Browns to win the AFC North.
- 9:45Speaker 1: I have said, and you have said, we think they
- 9:46Speaker 1: have the best roster in the AFC North. On the
- 9:49Speaker 1: offensive line of the defensive line, whether Joe Burrow was
- 9:53Speaker 1: injured or not, they were all dealing with the elements.
- 9:55Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson looked terrible for a lot of the game,
- 9:59Speaker 1: but there was a drive at the end of the
- 10:00Speaker 1: half where he looked fantastic and his defense was fierce.
- 10:05Speaker 1: I mean, they both had to play in the rain
- 10:06Speaker 1: and they were awesome today.
- 10:10Speaker 2: Yeah, but it definitely felt like it was something with Joe.
- 10:12Speaker 2: Something something felt wrong with Joe I'll be the first
- 10:15Speaker 2: to admit that watching that game, I never had fear
- 10:19Speaker 2: anytime he dropped back. I just knew he wasn't gonna
- 10:21Speaker 2: throw it downfield. He was gonna take that underneath stuff.
- 10:23Speaker 2: And when he did push it downfield, they felt like
- 10:25Speaker 2: there was no real touch or velocity on the ball.
- 10:27Speaker 2: So I don't I'm with you, like, I don't know
- 10:31Speaker 2: if I'm gonna blame his injury yet, but I do
- 10:33Speaker 2: think there's some part of him being rusty and the
- 10:35Speaker 2: elements where it was just a bad mix. Sure, so
- 10:39Speaker 2: Watson didn't play great, but you know, it's it's one
- 10:43Speaker 2: of those spots where we joke every year we just
- 10:46Speaker 2: take Cleveland against Cincinnati. It's just for some reason, he
- 10:50Speaker 2: doesn't perform well against this team. And yeah, he's one
- 10:54Speaker 2: to five now straight up against Cleveland. Pretty pretty incredible
- 11:00Speaker 2: in his career. He's just struggled against his Cleveland team.
- 11:03Speaker 1: What did you think? As I was doing all this,
- 11:07Speaker 1: the game that I wanted to talk about the most
- 11:10Speaker 1: was the Colts because for some reason, and maybe you've
- 11:15Speaker 1: felt this before, I was more frustrated with our lack
- 11:21Speaker 1: of putting the Colts in with the way the game
- 11:23Speaker 1: was going and rooting against the Colts covering ch and
- 11:27Speaker 1: I was with anything else happening in our other games,
- 11:30Speaker 1: because I would have been so annoyed if they had
- 11:32Speaker 1: covered and we had decigned.
- 11:34Speaker 2: Not to put him in, then we have them the
- 11:36Speaker 2: money line around Robin. I had a pretty decent amount
- 11:38Speaker 2: of bet on them in their money line. That's that's
- 11:42Speaker 2: just classic. You're feeling great, right, They get that return
- 11:46Speaker 2: for a touchdown, it's twenty one to seventeen. The Jags
- 11:50Speaker 2: go three and out, they get the ball back the
- 11:52Speaker 2: Colts and you're just like, here we go, like this
- 11:55Speaker 2: is exactly going to how I predicted a sloppy game
- 11:57Speaker 2: from the Jaguars, and the Colts are just controlling it
- 12:00Speaker 2: and it just fell apart so fast. And then this
- 12:04Speaker 2: is the worst part. It was the same thing happened
- 12:06Speaker 2: to the Patriots game. They get down to the one,
- 12:09Speaker 2: Anthony Orchison tries to run it in for a touchdown
- 12:11Speaker 2: and get stuck. They got to take him out, bringing
- 12:13Speaker 2: Minshew for the next three plays, and of course Minshew
- 12:16Speaker 2: goes through zero for three. So instead of getting that
- 12:19Speaker 2: touchdown and covering the three and a half, you just
- 12:21Speaker 2: you got nothing. So again, we'll have weeks where a
- 12:25Speaker 2: lot of things break great for us and we get lucky.
- 12:27Speaker 2: This was the opposite of that week. Everything that could
- 12:30Speaker 2: have gone wrong pretty much went wrong. So again, it's
- 12:34Speaker 2: just one of those weeks where it hurts I have
- 12:37Speaker 2: to go back and update how I'm ranking teams and
- 12:40Speaker 2: viewing teams, and clearly teams I thought that were gonna
- 12:43Speaker 2: be good, and when we even talked about me that
- 12:44Speaker 2: this Bears team completely disappointed in what happened today in
- 12:49Speaker 2: the sense that their defense just showed nothing. They didn't
- 12:52Speaker 2: show any heart. So it's one of those where I
- 12:55Speaker 2: still like this Bears team, but man, that that's gonna
- 12:59Speaker 2: be a one. On the bright side, the Vikings are
- 13:02Speaker 2: who we thought they were right with that Bucks game chat,
- 13:05Speaker 2: So I still think the Bears can take this division.
- 13:08Speaker 2: It just it does look like what you talked about.
- 13:10Speaker 2: They're just not They're not their defensively, they don't have
- 13:12Speaker 2: the guys yet, and Green Bay Packers pretty much did
- 13:15Speaker 2: whatever they wanted in that second half. So we'd love
- 13:17Speaker 2: to get your take on this Bears team, how you're
- 13:19Speaker 2: feeling right now.
- 13:20Speaker 1: Brother, Let me do a quick read for our friends.
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- 14:38Speaker 1: I eat them all the time. They've been perfect for
- 14:40Speaker 1: today because it gives me just enough time to heat
- 14:44Speaker 1: them up and get back to the games. The Bears,
- 14:47Speaker 1: we started talking about this this week. The Cowboys have
- 14:50Speaker 1: a better roster. There were a lot of unknowns about
- 14:52Speaker 1: Jordan Love, but I think we felt better about the
- 14:55Speaker 1: Packers overall as a team. And the Bears defense is
- 14:59Speaker 1: terrible and they're off line isn't very good. And obviously
- 15:02Speaker 1: we bet them very early in the offseason to win
- 15:04Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, but that's because their odds were one
- 15:06Speaker 1: hundred to one, and we liked some of their pickups
- 15:08Speaker 1: and we liked what the opportunity was. They had salary cap,
- 15:12Speaker 1: they had draft picks, you know, all the kinds of
- 15:14Speaker 1: things that you look for. We did not bet the
- 15:18Speaker 1: Bears in the contest. I did not bet the Bears
- 15:20Speaker 1: personally this week because I have no faith in that defense.
- 15:24Speaker 1: They are a high school defense, like the Packers. Will
- 15:28Speaker 1: be overvalued next week, and we'll look at the lines
- 15:30Speaker 1: and see what they are right now, but they will
- 15:32Speaker 1: be overvalued because they were not playing a professional caliber
- 15:35Speaker 1: defense today.
- 15:37Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, And it's one of those Rod I took
- 15:40Speaker 2: Bears first half. I just thought Jordan low would have
- 15:42Speaker 2: jitters being in such a big spot his first road start,
- 15:46Speaker 2: and he didn't play great in that first half, but
- 15:49Speaker 2: he didn't kill Green Bay either, And that's the key
- 15:51Speaker 2: to it, where it's like, if he's not hurting that team,
- 15:53Speaker 2: they have so much talent around him. Yeah, I thought
- 15:57Speaker 2: I thought that was a good, good game by him,
- 15:58Speaker 2: Like you just said it, I don't want to take
- 16:01Speaker 2: the team where they're gonna play next week, but like you,
- 16:03Speaker 2: like you said, we kind of have to do it
- 16:05Speaker 2: in the sense that they just played such a good game.
- 16:07Speaker 2: So yeah, that's It's definitely one of those days where
- 16:11Speaker 2: you see that again, we should have been all over
- 16:14Speaker 2: these unders. I hate that wasn't All of these these
- 16:17Speaker 2: teams are just sloppy early in the season. I mean
- 16:20Speaker 2: those one o'clock games were so sloppy and gross. Ye
- 16:23Speaker 2: the change in preseason, the fact there's only three preseason
- 16:26Speaker 2: games and no one really plays their starters, so definitely
- 16:30Speaker 2: eye opening. How these offenses just struggled mightily, even the
- 16:33Speaker 2: good offenses, right, the teams you thought would put up
- 16:36Speaker 2: points like the Eagles, the Eagles offense really struggled today.
- 16:39Speaker 2: It's just a lot of that where you know, hurts
- 16:42Speaker 2: him playing the preseason and it really showed up in
- 16:44Speaker 2: that game today. He just looked rusty. It didn't look
- 16:46Speaker 2: like he was in rhythm yet. So definitely something to
- 16:49Speaker 2: remember store away for next season, make sure we get
- 16:53Speaker 2: all this unders early.
- 16:54Speaker 1: I think the lack of a preseason game and look,
- 16:56Speaker 1: there's just less tackling in practices, right, and so there's
- 17:00Speaker 1: a lot of differences in how the games, how we
- 17:03Speaker 1: go into those early season games. Then in the past,
- 17:05Speaker 1: by the way, you sort of said you don't want
- 17:07Speaker 1: to play the team the Packers are playing next week.
- 17:10Speaker 1: Right now, the Packers are one and a half point
- 17:13Speaker 1: underdogs to the Atlanta Falcons in Atlanta. Simon, we have
- 17:19Speaker 1: to take Atlanta. Here's the thing about Atlanta, and you know,
- 17:23Speaker 1: I watched a lot of their game today because we
- 17:25Speaker 1: were on them. Anyways, even if we weren't going to
- 17:27Speaker 1: put him in the contest and whatever, that might have
- 17:29Speaker 1: been a mistake.
- 17:30Speaker 2: I think back like it definitely was.
- 17:33Speaker 1: Yeah, I think back to our conversations. Whenever we do
- 17:37Speaker 1: the picks the next week, I try to think back
- 17:39Speaker 1: like did we move too fast? And we were talking
- 17:43Speaker 1: about the Falcons, and we both loved the Falcons, but
- 17:48Speaker 1: we didn't know if we liked them better than anyone
- 17:49Speaker 1: else we had, and that's why they were, you know,
- 17:51Speaker 1: one of the first out. But you said something the
- 17:55Speaker 1: Falcons are such a public team, and I don't know why,
- 17:58Speaker 1: Like in my head, even though that's not what you
- 18:01Speaker 1: were saying, I took them off the list, and like,
- 18:04Speaker 1: we moved on to the Jets, right, And I think
- 18:07Speaker 1: what got me for the Jets was you said it's
- 18:11Speaker 1: one of your three biggest bets of the week. Yeah,
- 18:13Speaker 1: I'm like, well, and I know the Patriots were also,
- 18:16Speaker 1: I think one of your biggest bets of the week, right, Yeah,
- 18:18Speaker 1: So but.
- 18:19Speaker 2: I got lucky with them. They a lot of books
- 18:21Speaker 2: had them at five and a half five, so I
- 18:23Speaker 2: got lucky that at least I had some fives. But
- 18:26Speaker 2: almost all my bets on them were five, four and
- 18:28Speaker 2: a half and four. So just again brutal holding call
- 18:32Speaker 2: in the two point conversion. I just I can't believe
- 18:34Speaker 2: that happened to us, because again one and three is brutal,
- 18:37Speaker 2: but two and two we can live with that, Yeah,
- 18:40Speaker 2: we can live with that. So that's what's hurting right now.
- 18:43Speaker 2: It's like we were so close to it two and
- 18:45Speaker 2: two with a chance aut of three and two. Now
- 18:47Speaker 2: no matter what, we're just we're crawling to get that
- 18:50Speaker 2: two and three chat. We're hoping the Jets come through.
- 18:54Speaker 1: What was your other biggest bet? Did we have it
- 18:56Speaker 1: in the contest? That's what I forgot to ask you earlier.
- 18:58Speaker 2: Yeah, we had the Browns and a half.
- 19:00Speaker 1: Oh yeah, the Browns.
- 19:01Speaker 2: I think we had one and a half in contest,
- 19:03Speaker 2: but yeah, you know the two and a half. You
- 19:06Speaker 2: could have got that for months or so months.
- 19:09Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. Like so, Simon, I'm going back over this
- 19:12Speaker 1: and and I'm trying to think to myself, what was
- 19:16Speaker 1: the biggest mistake we made? And like, I guess it
- 19:20Speaker 1: was the Like I don't feel bad about the Texans.
- 19:22Speaker 1: The Texans defense was so good. And I promise you,
- 19:26Speaker 1: you know, the Texans, We're going to be on them again.
- 19:29Speaker 1: They're going to be short home dogs, short home favorites
- 19:32Speaker 1: against the Colts. I root in my notes this is
- 19:34Speaker 1: a team we are going to bet again and again
- 19:36Speaker 1: and again.
- 19:37Speaker 2: Yeah, they're in that game the whole game. I mean,
- 19:39Speaker 2: they were always a touchdown away from covering the number. Again,
- 19:43Speaker 2: they just they couldn't get that touchdown. So that's just
- 19:46Speaker 2: that's just how it breaks sometimes.
- 19:48Speaker 1: And the Falcons they're just not flashy. Although Bjon Robinson
- 19:54Speaker 1: is going to be a problem, like he is.
- 19:57Speaker 2: Literally I told you though al Jier they love him too.
- 20:01Speaker 1: Yeah, no, it was great, But that's what I mean,
- 20:04Speaker 1: Like they're just going to be a team that we
- 20:06Speaker 1: want to bet on, the Falcons because they're going to
- 20:09Speaker 1: do very consistent things. They're kind of like the Patriots there.
- 20:12Speaker 1: They're not going to have a tendency to beat themselves.
- 20:17Speaker 1: I say that as the Patriots beat themselves today. But
- 20:20Speaker 1: I think those are anomalies. The Falcons are a well
- 20:23Speaker 1: coached team with a game plan that says, come beat
- 20:26Speaker 1: us at what you know we're going to do.
- 20:28Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it's that. They're definitely one of those teams
- 20:32Speaker 2: where you know it can just break right for them
- 20:36Speaker 2: this year. They don't play good quarterbacks. That's the key
- 20:38Speaker 2: to their season right now. Like they only play three
- 20:40Speaker 2: or four playoff teams from last year, So you don't
- 20:44Speaker 2: need your quarterback to be a stud. If you can
- 20:47Speaker 2: run the ball and get turnovers and like again, they
- 20:50Speaker 2: were losing that game, and then they got two turnovers
- 20:52Speaker 2: off Bryce Young and that kind of flipped the game.
- 20:54Speaker 2: So that was one of those where you know, it
- 20:57Speaker 2: didn't matter. Their quarterback played so terribly, the defense played
- 21:00Speaker 2: really well, and like you said, they have two really
- 21:03Speaker 2: good running backs. So that's definitely a team that I
- 21:06Speaker 2: could easily see when in that division are sneaking in
- 21:08Speaker 2: and being a seventh seed. They're just there. They're an eight, nine, nine,
- 21:12Speaker 2: and eight kind of teams. So they're definitely one of
- 21:13Speaker 2: those that will be paying playing most most games are there,
- 21:17Speaker 2: especially if they're a home dog like they're they are
- 21:19Speaker 2: next week.
- 21:20Speaker 1: What did you think of the Titans in the Saints,
- 21:24Speaker 1: because you have been pimping the Titans, I'm pimping the Saints.
- 21:28Speaker 1: You love the Saints, love them both, and yeah, we
- 21:32Speaker 1: like them both. And I felt like Ryan Tannehill looked
- 21:36Speaker 1: pretty bad horrible.
- 21:38Speaker 2: Yeah, and that was another It depends on what side
- 21:41Speaker 2: you're on. You think you had a good a good,
- 21:42Speaker 2: a good win if you're the Titans. But yeah, they
- 21:45Speaker 2: kick a field goal when they were down four with
- 21:47Speaker 2: two minutes left. It was it was a pretty great
- 21:49Speaker 2: play for Rabel for all his Titan backers to get
- 21:52Speaker 2: that cover. Definitely one of the teams that as bad
- 21:57Speaker 2: as Tannehill was. I still think the Samets are pretty good.
- 22:00Speaker 2: I think defensively they're pretty good, and offensively we talked
- 22:03Speaker 2: about it. They just they have a lot of weapons,
- 22:06Speaker 2: Like if Michael Thomas is half of what he used
- 22:08Speaker 2: to be, that's pretty impressive, and a lot they missed
- 22:12Speaker 2: about a quarter. He came back and it's still he
- 22:15Speaker 2: still is making plays, so hopefully his injury isn't long
- 22:18Speaker 2: lasting because he came in and finished the game. But yeah,
- 22:22Speaker 2: I honestly came out of it impressed with both teams.
- 22:24Speaker 2: Like I thought Tennessee they had a game where their
- 22:28Speaker 2: quarterback threw three interceptions and they lost by a point,
- 22:30Speaker 2: Like I thought, they played really well. On the flip side,
- 22:33Speaker 2: the Saints, they just left a ton of plays out there.
- 22:35Speaker 2: They just really struggled in the red zone. So to me,
- 22:38Speaker 2: both teams have a lot to clean up, and nothing's
- 22:41Speaker 2: changed in my opinion. I still think Tennessee's going even
- 22:44Speaker 2: though they lost that game. I think they'll still get
- 22:46Speaker 2: to their win total. And if you look at the
- 22:48Speaker 2: same schedule, this is like one of two of the
- 22:51Speaker 2: hardest games of their entire season. Like it's it's really
- 22:53Speaker 2: that big of a joke this game says. So the
- 22:56Speaker 2: fact they won this game, that's a big deal for
- 22:58Speaker 2: them heading into this season. That's if you took there over,
- 23:01Speaker 2: that's a nice proposition right now with this team.
- 23:04Speaker 1: I thought Derek Carr and you pinpointed this played incredibly well.
- 23:10Speaker 1: I was really impressed. I don't think Dennis Allen is
- 23:14Speaker 1: a very good coach. Now, all of a sudden, you've
- 23:16Speaker 1: got the Saints is one point road favorite at the
- 23:19Speaker 1: Panthers next week. Also interesting. That game is on Sunday night.
- 23:24Speaker 1: Also interesting. I'm sorry that game is on Monday night.
- 23:27Speaker 1: Also interesting. Let's give this sixty seconds. The Titans at
- 23:34Speaker 1: home three point underdogs to the Los Angeles Chargers. There
- 23:42Speaker 1: is no way, Simon, Please tell me right now. Have
- 23:45Speaker 1: you already bet the Tennessee Titans is three point dogs
- 23:49Speaker 1: against the Los Angeles Chargers. That is a coaching mismatch.
- 23:52Speaker 2: Yeah, it's already moved it two and a half in
- 23:53Speaker 2: a lot of books. So if you do want the three,
- 23:55Speaker 2: I would grab that now because I do see a
- 23:57Speaker 2: dropping a two and a half it's just it's the
- 24:00Speaker 2: same old Chargers. I think they have all the talent
- 24:02Speaker 2: in the world, they just don't have the coaching. And
- 24:05Speaker 2: you know, today was again it gives me hope for
- 24:12Speaker 2: them because they ran for two hundred yards, which is
- 24:15Speaker 2: great to see this Chargers team. They didn't just have
- 24:18Speaker 2: to pass to beat that team or Tennessee. That's Tennessee's
- 24:21Speaker 2: bread and butter, stopping the run. So we'll see how
- 24:26Speaker 2: you know the Chargers do. Just being one demensional next
- 24:28Speaker 2: week where this week they were able to run the
- 24:30Speaker 2: ball and pass, Tennessee is gonna make them just really
- 24:35Speaker 2: have to throw the ball. They're just they're so good
- 24:37Speaker 2: against the run. You saw that today against the Saints team.
- 24:40Speaker 2: But do you want another bet I made while we've
- 24:43Speaker 2: been on here. Yes, give me the Seahawks five and
- 24:47Speaker 2: a half traveling to Detroit to face this Detroit team
- 24:51Speaker 2: after that huge win, huge against the Chiefs. Now they're
- 24:57Speaker 2: at home after a long rest, playing a Seahawks team
- 25:01Speaker 2: that just got blown out embarrassed by the Rams. Like
- 25:04Speaker 2: this is one of these. It's five and a half.
- 25:06Speaker 2: I just took it just in case the pros hit it.
- 25:08Speaker 2: If you want to wait for the six. You can
- 25:10Speaker 2: roll the dice, but I do think the professionals will
- 25:12Speaker 2: bet this down.
- 25:13Speaker 1: So look, this game, by the way, is already at
- 25:16Speaker 1: four and a half in some spots.
- 25:18Speaker 2: Okay, so yeah, it's it's five and a half in
- 25:21Speaker 2: a couple spots. So it's one of those search around.
- 25:24Speaker 2: I grabbed the five and a half just because I
- 25:26Speaker 2: just I just see it coming down. That's that's pretty
- 25:28Speaker 2: high for a Seahawks team that yes, they struggle against
- 25:32Speaker 2: the run, and that's what this Detroit team could do.
- 25:36Speaker 2: But we've seen in time and time again this Detroit
- 25:39Speaker 2: team you can be passed on. Right. The only reason
- 25:41Speaker 2: the Chiefs didn't beat them because they kept dropping the ball.
- 25:43Speaker 2: And I don't see DK Metcalf or Lockett dropping the
- 25:47Speaker 2: ball like that. So nice bounce back spot for the
- 25:50Speaker 2: Seahawks team catching five and a half four and a half.
- 25:53Speaker 2: Hopefully you can find the five and a half.
- 25:56Speaker 1: There are some five and a halfs available, so if
- 25:59Speaker 1: you can get.
- 26:00Speaker 2: There's some really public books that it's the best hint
- 26:02Speaker 2: I can give you.
- 26:04Speaker 1: Okay, uh, all right, well those are two interesting games.
- 26:10Speaker 1: The last game on I talked about the Falcons minus one.
- 26:18Speaker 1: I know I'm gonna want to bet them. I know
- 26:20Speaker 1: I'm gonna want to bet the Ravens.
- 26:23Speaker 2: Now the Falcons. You keep saying that the Falcons are
- 26:25Speaker 2: actually plus one and a half. I thought you just misspoke.
- 26:29Speaker 1: Oh no, oh, you're right.
- 26:30Speaker 2: I'm just yeah, yeah, yeah, that's what I mean. They're
- 26:32Speaker 2: a live dog now at home. That's reason. Oh my god, right, I.
- 26:36Speaker 1: Mean, am I going to just unload on every game
- 26:38Speaker 1: right now?
- 26:39Speaker 2: No, man, you gotta we gotta relax. But I a
- 26:43Speaker 2: would say you do what I do. It's just you're
- 26:44Speaker 2: I'm putting barely one percent of my bankroll out in
- 26:47Speaker 2: these I'm just they're just feelers.
- 26:50Speaker 1: Interesting. What do you feel about the Ravens as underdogs
- 26:55Speaker 1: at three and a half?
- 26:57Speaker 2: Fucking love the Bengals. That's like, uh, a classic spot
- 27:01Speaker 2: of like I'm gonna have to talk to some pros
- 27:03Speaker 2: and get get some talking off this at Ledge. But
- 27:08Speaker 2: that was just a nightmare scenario for that Bengals team.
- 27:11Speaker 2: So to me, I would even grab a three. I've
- 27:15Speaker 2: grabbed a couple threes, i haven't touched a three and
- 27:17Speaker 2: a half, but I think that's a very telling line.
- 27:20Speaker 2: When the Ravens win by what sixteen, Cincinnati gets blown
- 27:26Speaker 2: out and they hang this number three three and a half.
- 27:29Speaker 2: So can already tell you, Chad, this will be Pros
- 27:33Speaker 2: versus Joe's. This feels like the Pros will be on
- 27:36Speaker 2: Cincinnati and the public will be all over this Ravens line.
- 27:38Speaker 2: So another one. Again. I don't want you to go
- 27:41Speaker 2: unload on this, but if you can get the minus three,
- 27:44Speaker 2: I would grab that now just in case it goes
- 27:46Speaker 2: back up to three and a half.
- 27:48Speaker 1: All right, well, that's all very good advice. You know
- 27:51Speaker 1: what else is good advice? Simon going to check out
- 27:55Speaker 1: the fastest growing ticketing app in the United States. That's right,
- 28:00Speaker 1: it's our sponsor, our friends at game Time. I love
- 28:03Speaker 1: Game Time for two reasons. One because they sponsored this show,
- 28:06Speaker 1: but number two because I actually use Game Time to
- 28:09Speaker 1: buy tickets. They've got amazing last minute deals on all
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- 28:17Speaker 1: of which, I'm actually going to open Game Time right
- 28:20Speaker 1: now from my house here in Connecticut. It is evening time.
- 28:23Speaker 1: The get in price for the New York Football Giants
- 28:27Speaker 1: happening in moments. I'm actually not gonna mention that one.
- 28:30Speaker 1: Let's talk about the New York Jets tomorrow night, Monday
- 28:33Speaker 1: Night Football one hundred and fifty eight bucks. Not bad
- 28:38Speaker 1: for an opening game in the NFL. Also New York
- 28:41Speaker 1: Mets six dollars not bad either. No matter where you live,
- 28:45Speaker 1: download the Game Time app, Get out have some fun
- 28:48Speaker 1: this week. Go sweat your bets live and in person,
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- 28:57Speaker 1: and enter code favorites for twenty dollars off off last
- 29:00Speaker 1: minute tickets, lowest price gearn Te Simon. We are massive
- 29:06Speaker 1: Jets fans right now. It's one of the reasons I
- 29:07Speaker 1: mentioned the Jets. But like with the with you know,
- 29:14Speaker 1: eight hours of hindsight, are we feeling good that we're
- 29:18Speaker 1: now sitting on twenty four hours until we have to
- 29:23Speaker 1: wait for the Jets to play the Bills and root
- 29:26Speaker 1: against our best friend Matt Mitchell, the crazy Bills fan.
- 29:31Speaker 2: I would say, I'm kicking myself just because we put
- 29:34Speaker 2: them in over the Falcons and we would just be
- 29:35Speaker 2: two and three and done with it instead of having
- 29:37Speaker 2: to worry about won them four. But no, we're trying
- 29:39Speaker 2: to get the best of both worlds. We want the
- 29:42Speaker 2: Bills to win by two points or one point and
- 29:44Speaker 2: then we get to cover our number and Matt Mitchell
- 29:48Speaker 2: gets his win. But no, I still think it's a
- 29:51Speaker 2: bad spot for this Bills team. And it's one of
- 29:55Speaker 2: those where you know, the fact that the Raiders just
- 29:58Speaker 2: won a big game, we could get it. I wouldn't
- 30:01Speaker 2: bet the Bills right now because I think if you wait,
- 30:03Speaker 2: you could get a good number if they do lose
- 30:05Speaker 2: and you get a Raiders team come in off a
- 30:07Speaker 2: big win. You know. That was I think a lot
- 30:11Speaker 2: of books in Vegas put out there that was one
- 30:13Speaker 2: of their most bet teams today was the Raiders. So
- 30:16Speaker 2: that that's a team that they will move a number.
- 30:19Speaker 2: They went from four to three and a half down
- 30:21Speaker 2: to three before kickoff today, this Raiders team. So I think,
- 30:25Speaker 2: if you're like us, you want to take the Bills
- 30:26Speaker 2: next week, which I will, I'm gonna wait on that number.
- 30:29Speaker 2: So yeah, we need we need the Jets tomorrow. Chad.
- 30:34Speaker 2: I'm my brain's pretty shot. All I can really think
- 30:37Speaker 2: about is the Jets and these unders again, the unders
- 30:40Speaker 2: ten and four today. Uh. I through a little more
- 30:42Speaker 2: on the under tonight through a little more on the
- 30:44Speaker 2: under front tomorrow. It's just hunders are just hidden right now.
- 30:50Speaker 1: I don't know how I'm gonna find Mondays are usually
- 30:52Speaker 1: a pretty busy day in the Action Universe because you're
- 30:56Speaker 1: unpacking so much of what happened for the weekend, yeah,
- 31:00Speaker 1: and trying to It's like, honestly, it's like game planning, right,
- 31:04Speaker 1: You're trying to tweak and adjust across your video strategy,
- 31:09Speaker 1: across your distribution strategy, across your on platform strategy. Wa
- 31:14Speaker 1: do all our different dashboards tell us about what performed
- 31:18Speaker 1: well and blah blah blah blah blah. So Monday is
- 31:21Speaker 1: a huge unpacking day for all that, and then you
- 31:25Speaker 1: try to do better the next week. I don't know
- 31:29Speaker 1: how I'm going to concentrate, because all I'm going to
- 31:31Speaker 1: be thinking about is the goddamn Jets, who I want
- 31:34Speaker 1: to fade with every fiber of my being, having to
- 31:38Speaker 1: cover against the bills for us to start out two
- 31:40Speaker 1: and three in our own goddamn contests that we convinced
- 31:43Speaker 1: nearly ten thousand people to sign up for and like
- 31:46Speaker 1: our faces and our name is at the top of
- 31:50Speaker 1: that goddamn contest, and everyone's going to see it now.
- 31:56Speaker 2: No, I can't wait. I'm excited. I'm excited for the Jets,
- 32:00Speaker 2: but I'm like you, I'm already ready to move on
- 32:01Speaker 2: to week two. I'm like, just going through these lines
- 32:03Speaker 2: right now, there's just you're going to see all the
- 32:05Speaker 2: value that's me popping up next week. So yeah, I
- 32:08Speaker 2: can't wait for tomorrow's game, but I really can't wait
- 32:10Speaker 2: for Tuesday show to break down all these games upcoming week.
- 32:13Speaker 1: Anything else that we should be thinking about for week two?
- 32:17Speaker 1: We talked about the Titans, we talked about Seattle. Is
- 32:22Speaker 1: anything else sort of hopping that you see right now?
- 32:28Speaker 2: No. I would say, you know, if you're into overreactions,
- 32:35Speaker 2: you can buy a low if you want of the Bengals, Like,
- 32:37Speaker 2: that's a team that if you think they're going to
- 32:39Speaker 2: struggle again this upcoming week against the Ravens, that could
- 32:43Speaker 2: be a team that you come in on after they
- 32:45Speaker 2: start owing too like they did last year. I think
- 32:46Speaker 2: they start owing too. You could have got good odds
- 32:49Speaker 2: on them to win their division. You can do the
- 32:50Speaker 2: same thing this year. If it's just the way it
- 32:52Speaker 2: is with Joe that he's just a guy that comes
- 32:54Speaker 2: slow out of the gate, especially the fact that he
- 32:56Speaker 2: keeps missing back to back seasons of the preseason could
- 33:00Speaker 2: become a real thing. So definitely keep your eye on
- 33:03Speaker 2: future markets. We'll talk about it a little bit on
- 33:06Speaker 2: these upcoming shows this week if I do anything different,
- 33:08Speaker 2: But yeah, I would say, you know, of all the
- 33:15Speaker 2: teams that got me really excited, I would say the
- 33:18Speaker 2: Rams Chad, I'm trying to hold it back just because
- 33:20Speaker 2: we didn't take them. That's a team that I invested
- 33:23Speaker 2: heavily in. We both felt like a complete idiot once
- 33:28Speaker 2: Cooper Cup went out and I was like, all right,
- 33:30Speaker 2: can't buy out my position, but I'm just stuck. So
- 33:34Speaker 2: I pretty much mark that in my book as a
- 33:36Speaker 2: loss because I just viewed them as a team that
- 33:38Speaker 2: would struggle. And my guy Stafford made me look good
- 33:41Speaker 2: man like, he looked like a top ten quarterback today.
- 33:44Speaker 2: Stepping up in the pocket really made these no names
- 33:47Speaker 2: receivers all have big catches, and yeah, that's a team
- 33:52Speaker 2: that I talked about. I didn't really care there were
- 33:54Speaker 2: a bunch of no names on that defense. I liked
- 33:57Speaker 2: the day of the Hunger and that's what you got.
- 33:59Speaker 2: You got a bunch of kids that, yeah, they're not
- 34:01Speaker 2: going to be the most talented team, but they're coach right,
- 34:04Speaker 2: that can be a really good, hungry team. So another
- 34:07Speaker 2: team I love This upcoming week, they played the forty
- 34:09Speaker 2: nine ers, so you know, people already know I'm gonna
- 34:12Speaker 2: go on that one. Another game I'm hoping gets above
- 34:15Speaker 2: seven seven and a half, just because the forty nine
- 34:17Speaker 2: ers look so dominant. They look like the best team
- 34:21Speaker 2: in the NFC, So hoping that we get some value
- 34:24Speaker 2: there on this Rams team that historically they do lose
- 34:28Speaker 2: to the forty nine ers, but it's always by like
- 34:30Speaker 2: three points. They're just a team that plays them close.
- 34:33Speaker 2: Even when the Fnites were bad and the Rams are good,
- 34:34Speaker 2: they would always play each other close. So yeah, people
- 34:37Speaker 2: can tell. There's just a lot of games I'm excited
- 34:39Speaker 2: about and I'm so happy football is back. But like
- 34:42Speaker 2: a couple of games are sloppy early on, but that
- 34:44Speaker 2: Chargers Miami game, that's the best. Like just those kind
- 34:48Speaker 2: of games, That's why I love football. So yeah, sucks,
- 34:50Speaker 2: we can win today, A little feel a little a
- 34:54Speaker 2: little broker today, so that hurts. But already looking forward
- 34:57Speaker 2: to Week two, there's just so many games popping out
- 34:59Speaker 2: right now.
- 35:00Speaker 1: I want to get everyone out of here before the
- 35:02Speaker 1: Giants Cowboys play. We're on the Giants plus three and
- 35:05Speaker 1: a half tonight. Two things before we go. One, you
- 35:09Speaker 1: mentioned the Rams. We're both pretty heavy on the Rams
- 35:13Speaker 1: ten to one to win the NFC West. Also, I
- 35:17Speaker 1: want to give you a little bit of credit here, Simon,
- 35:19Speaker 1: a little shine because you mentioned in passing Tyreek Kill
- 35:25Speaker 1: nine to one to lead the league in receiving yards,
- 35:28Speaker 1: because he had commented about wanting to get two thousand
- 35:31Speaker 1: yards for the season. You bet it, I bet it.
- 35:34Speaker 1: Tyreek Kill basically tried to win the reception yards title today.
- 35:38Speaker 1: He finished the day with two hundred and sixteen receiving yards.
- 35:42Speaker 1: So kudos to us for that. Super excited.
- 35:45Speaker 2: We're not total idiots, people, We're not total idiots.
- 35:48Speaker 1: We're not totallyits all the time. This was the purpose
- 35:55Speaker 1: of the show. Recap what happened, start teasing some games
- 35:59Speaker 1: that we like, get us out of here before Monday,
- 36:02Speaker 1: before Sunday Night football. Reminder, The Favorites is proudly presented
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- 36:33Speaker 1: Chad Milman. This has been the Favorites presented by Bet
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