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The Muster- Phil Duncan: Weather Watch: · The Muster on Hokonui

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Welcome back to the muster. Phil Duncan of Weatherwatch joins us.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Good afternoon, Phil.
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: Good afternoon.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: I got a message from a mate the other day
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: after we spoke last week. His first name is Nathan.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: We'll leave it at that. And Nathan was saying, when
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: the hell are we going to get a decent forecast?
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Tell your mate not to come back onto the radio
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: until we get it sorted. But also ask him, have
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: we genuinely seen a moving of the seasons in the south?
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: That's a very good question. I think at the moment
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: we're still very much in the early phases of spring.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: And for Southland, that means that you probably still have
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: more days that are colder than they are warmer. But
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: that usually changes over the next four weeks and it
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: switches the other way around. You end up with more
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: days that are warmer and fewer days that are colder.
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: So that's probably my advice. And as far as wanting
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: to look at some warm weather on the way, let's
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: just focus on Tuesday of next week and ignore every
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: other day of the week. And then we'll have a
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: a very positive forecast for you.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: I suppose when you say cooler weather, are we going
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: to get the wind chill? You can handle 10 degrees
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: if you're not getting that westerly or that easterly.
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the wind chill is in there at times over
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: the coming week. It's going to be particularly colder. We're
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: not talking about a major cold outbreak, but it will
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: be colder as we go into this afternoon. Temperatures are dropping.
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: In fact, in Gore today, the temperatures started to drop
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: From a forecasting point of view, you know, normally you
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: look at the graph and it usually goes up in
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: the afternoon and then drops down as you go closer
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: towards sunset. But today that temperature starts to drop during
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: the middle of the afternoon, a sign of some colder weather.
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: So a little bit colder going into tomorrow. There's nothing
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: really major from a wind chill point of view. But
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: next week, around Wednesday p.m. through to Friday p.m., So
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: that 48-hour period at the end of next week, it
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: does look a bit cold there. And that's where the
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: wind chill is often between sort of zero and five
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: degrees any time of the day or night. So that's
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: a bit of a colder spell later next week.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: Is that what we're just going to get for the
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: remainder of September? Everything's just uncertain because normally about this
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: time of year, we're starting to see a bit of
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: decent growth.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been warmer in a number of areas, but
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: that doesn't necessarily translate to grass growth just yet. The
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: days also need to get longer, which they are rapidly
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: doing now. In fact, I think by the start of
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: next week, there is nowhere in New Zealand that has
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: sun setting before 6pm, unless you live on the Chatham Islands.
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: So everyone will... The last part of New Zealand to
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: get to that point is Gisborne. And so I think
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: they've reached that point in the next couple of days.
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: So that means you guys further southwards, your days are
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: already getting longer than they are up in the North Island.
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: So that's better for pasture growth, but you just need
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: that extra bit of warmth, and we're just not quite
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: there yet. That's why quite a lot of farmers and
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: growers don't really say that the seasons have changed until
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: we get to that astronomical date. So that will be
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: the spring equinox, and that is not very far away
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: from now. That's only just over a week and a
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: bit away. So once we get to about the 22nd,
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: 23rd of September, that is when we are, you know,
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: in all different ways of measuring it, we're definitely into spring.
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: But if you go with the astronomical calendar, we're still
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: technically in the very end of winter at the moment.
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: Hence why your grass is not growing perfectly just yet.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: This weather cycle is going to continue then, although it
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: will be getting warmer, arguably.
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we are seeing some warmer trends coming through, not
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: just around New Zealand, but over in Australia. And in fact,
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: the last couple of weeks around New Zealand have been
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: warmer than average in every region. And a lot of
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: people don't always understand that because it can feel cold.
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: So you, as a human being, feeling warm or cold
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: is irrelevant to whether or not it's warmer or cooler
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: than average. And so we've had a number of regions
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: across the country being up to two degrees above normal.
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: And to give you an idea of how much that
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: is over a two-week period... That is as far as
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: the key goes on the map. It goes to two
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: degrees above normal and beyond. So we've seen a lot
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: of the country sort of Canterbury up to Waikato in
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: that two degrees warmer than average category. You guys are
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: down around about a degree above normal. And if it
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: doesn't feel warm, quite often when you do have a
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: warmer than average period of time, that often is at nighttime.
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: So you might have noticed a reduction in frosty conditions.
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: perhaps more so than previous years. And that could be
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: all it is that boosts your temperatures up to be
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: above normal.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: So no frosts or anything to worry about? Arguably, frosts
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: give you a warm day afterwards.
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't really see a lot of frost coming up,
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: but there is a little bit of a chance next
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: week when we see those temperatures drop. Thursday next week,
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: you're down to three degrees. You're down to four degrees tonight.
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: So that means some areas further inland or a little
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: bit higher up could be looking at getting close to
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: a frost. But I think any frosts that form this
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: week will be very, very light over the next 10 days.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Just to wrap up, 9-11, what are your memories?
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: I've got strong memories of 9-11 because at the time,
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: I had my fiancée was living... She had gone back
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: to Canada. She was Canadian and had been in New
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: Zealand for a year. And she flew back one week
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: before 9-11 happened. And so it was a very scary
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: moment because... the borders all around the world pretty much
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: shut down, and you couldn't travel certainly into North America.
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: And so it was a little tough having the love
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: of my life living on another side of the world.
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: And on top of that, her flight, you know, you
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: fly from Auckland to Los Angeles and then Los Angeles
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: to Toronto. And the flight from Los Angeles to Toronto
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: the very next week was escorted back to L.A. with
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: fighter jets, because a man was in the toilet smoking
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: a cigarette, and he wouldn't come out, and they assumed
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: that it was a terrorist, so they got the fighter
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: jet scrambled. So it was a really kind of weird
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: time for me back then.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, hey, good on you, Phil. Always appreciate your time
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: on the muster. You enjoy the weekend.
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: You too, mate, and look forward to Tuesday next week
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: when it's 18 degrees.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Phil Duncan of Weatherwatch, go and follow him on his
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: social channels, YouTube as well, does a great job looking
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: at the seven-day forecast for us down here in the
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: Deep South. Nigel Wood heads up next, based in South Otago.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: You're listening to The Muster.