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Warren Buffet to Retire, Tyson Earnings · Bloomberg Intelligence

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Speaker 2: It was the bombshell news over the weekend. Even my
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Speaker 2: husband talked to me about it. And that is Warren
0:29
Speaker 2: Buffett leaving the CEO head at Berkshire Hathaway. Matthew Palazoa
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Speaker 2: is Bloomberg Intelligence Senior analyst for PNC Insurance. He was
0:38
Speaker 2: there on the ground. Matthew, what was it like when
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Speaker 2: he said that in the last few minutes of his address.
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Speaker 3: I was there boots on the ground, so I have
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Speaker 3: to admit. So it's cold in there, it's dark. People
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Speaker 3: are up since four o'clock in the morning right now.
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Speaker 4: Yeah.
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Speaker 3: Get The guy in front of me is slumped over
0:55
Speaker 3: asleep in his chair. And I looked at my watch
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Speaker 3: and I said, oh, there's only five minutes least. And
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Speaker 3: I say, it's kind of not that eventful of a meeting.
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Speaker 3: It literally said five minutes left. And then Buffett's looks
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Speaker 3: up and he says, I've just gotten alert this five
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Speaker 3: minutes left. I have to say something before the meeting ends.
1:11
Speaker 3: And once he said that, I think everyone in the
1:13
Speaker 3: building knew what was coming. I was personally really sad,
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Speaker 3: Like I was almost choked up. It was it was
1:21
Speaker 3: a sad moment he talked about he got a big
1:24
Speaker 3: standing ovation. It was you know, you could definitely feel
1:28
Speaker 3: the emotion in the building.
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Speaker 5: What do we know about Greg Gable? He's been kind
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Speaker 5: of the successor to mister Buffett. He's been kind of
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Speaker 5: running things really for a number of years now, right.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, And I mean a couple of things on Greg.
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Speaker 3: So number one, he's been with Berkshire since the early nineties,
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Speaker 3: so he's been around for a long time. He's vice
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Speaker 3: chairman twenty eighteen. We've talked about over the years, how
1:54
Speaker 3: Buffett has talked about at these meetings that he's been
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Speaker 3: seeding a lot of responsibilities and control to Greg, and
2:01
Speaker 3: how he's been working on, you know, kind of these
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Speaker 3: bigger deals to go over time.
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Speaker 2: What do we think the premium is going to be worth?
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Speaker 4: Now?
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Speaker 2: No one can replicate Warren Buffett period. The structure could
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Speaker 2: still be there to run a very successful behemoth right,
2:16
Speaker 2: but it's not going to be the same. Yeah, what
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Speaker 2: the premium there?
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Speaker 3: Do you think certainly some of the magic has gone
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Speaker 3: right and the buffet premium, You know, I would argue that,
2:27
Speaker 3: you know, let's see, you see the stocks down I
2:29
Speaker 3: think was six percent when I left my desk. You know,
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Speaker 3: it kind of makes sense to me. He probably had
2:34
Speaker 3: people with large unrealized gain positions in it, and they're
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Speaker 3: like kind of buffets out now I'm out, similar to
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Speaker 3: why Berkshire itself sold their positions in Apple Bank of America.
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Speaker 6: But I would look forward to the future and.
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Speaker 3: Say, you know, maybe you're not getting these kind of
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Speaker 3: home run deals, but maybe you're getting better capital allocation.
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Speaker 3: Maybe you're getting a dividends, so you know, maybe those
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Speaker 3: things offset each other.
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Speaker 4: Just degree.
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Speaker 5: That's where we got to go. What's what's a three
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Speaker 5: hundred and fifty billion three fifty billion amongst friends? Got
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Speaker 5: to put up a significant dividen, you'll, and you got
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Speaker 5: to stop buying back some stuff. Yeah, I mean, so
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Speaker 5: what that happened today?
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Speaker 3: I don't so I don't think it's happening today. I
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Speaker 3: probably don't think. I don't think it's going to happen
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Speaker 3: this year, right. I think when when Greg takes over,
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Speaker 3: I think he will be very cognizant of making dramatic changes.
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Speaker 3: But I also feel like Berkshire got away with a
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Speaker 3: lot because Buffett right, so that that will not hold
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Speaker 3: water anymore. And I think it would behoove able to
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Speaker 3: really do something with the capital, and it.
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Speaker 6: Would investor questions would carry more weight.
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Speaker 2: How is the how is the company doing?
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Speaker 6: Fine? The first quarter I didn't I didn't love the
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Speaker 6: first quarter is.
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Speaker 2: A great love.
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Speaker 6: The word fine, I mean.
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Speaker 3: Ten billion dollars a quarter is good, right, that's the
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Speaker 3: kind of earnings power. They were just a couple of
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Speaker 3: signals in the first quarter results that I didn't love.
4:03
Speaker 3: And I'm an insurance guide. And they had adverse development,
4:06
Speaker 3: which means some claims from prior years were costing more
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Speaker 3: than they expected. The wild fire losses were a little
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Speaker 3: bit more than I thought they were going to be.
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Speaker 3: The fire loss is not that's not a go forward thing,
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Speaker 3: but the reserve issues are a little concerning. But the
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Speaker 3: beauty of the company is such a behemoth, so many
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Speaker 3: streams of differentiated earnings that they kind of upset each other.
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Speaker 6: So their earnings have been better.
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Speaker 3: Than expected the past couple of quarters, so I thought
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Speaker 3: they were in line for a kind of slight disappointment.
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Speaker 5: Thirty seconds. Some of the parts valuation, where are we.
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Speaker 3: Are Bloomberg Intelligence midpoint? Some of the parts analysis comes
4:46
Speaker 3: up to like one point one trillion, which was kind
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Speaker 3: of before the meeting, the stock was trading slightly above that.
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Speaker 3: I don't know if it's you know, below that now,
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Speaker 3: and I mean, you know, I don't claim to know
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Speaker 3: what Buffet knows, but they haven't been buying max shares
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Speaker 3: for a couple of quarters, so I think he's probably
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Speaker 3: viewing it very much in the same way as fully valued,
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Speaker 3: and the stock's at all time highs.
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Speaker 5: Won what he does now? Like you're warn he's ninety.
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Speaker 2: Digital chairman, right, you gotta do, you're ninety four?
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Speaker 5: Like no, just relax, Yes, exactly, I take that I
5:23
Speaker 5: would too, all right, Matthew Palizo, Well, thank you so much.
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Speaker 5: We appreciate that, Matt Palizzoli. He's a senior Anniston covers
5:28
Speaker 5: all the property and casualty insurance companies for Bloomberg Intelligence.
5:31
Speaker 5: Boots on the ground in Omaha over the weekend, mister
5:34
Speaker 5: Bethey as Tom Keener first Tom stepping down at the
5:37
Speaker 5: age of ninety four and just obviously historic, historic run.
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5:58
Speaker 5: It is earning season, folks, and we got the Tyson's
6:00
Speaker 5: Foods reporting earnings. I don't know, maybe it's just me.
6:03
Speaker 5: I think of Tyson's food I just think chicken. But
6:06
Speaker 5: they're also in the beef business as well. That's the
6:11
Speaker 5: extent of my knowledge. Stocks trading off on some earnings.
6:13
Speaker 5: Jen Bartashis joins us. She's a senior retail staples and
6:16
Speaker 5: packaged foods analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence. Jen the street doesn't
6:21
Speaker 5: like what they heard from tyson Foods Springdale, Arkansas. What
6:26
Speaker 5: happened there, Well, it's.
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Speaker 7: Really two things, Paul. The first thing is that the
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Speaker 7: beef business did worse than people expected. But secondly, the
6:34
Speaker 7: company held their guidance for the fiscal year, which is
6:37
Speaker 7: generally a good thing, except that they're ahead of paste
6:40
Speaker 7: for the top of their guidance for adjusted operating income
6:43
Speaker 7: for both the chicken and the pork segment. So there
6:46
Speaker 7: are a lot of questions on why, given the strong
6:48
Speaker 7: first half performance they've had that they didn't actually raise
6:51
Speaker 7: their guidance overall. And so between those two things, that's
6:54
Speaker 7: what's putting pressure on the stock today.
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Speaker 2: Do we get the sense that that's a demand concern
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Speaker 2: or is it an input concern?
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Speaker 7: Well, on the beef side, it's an input concern. And
7:03
Speaker 7: actually there's a piece to that puzzle that Tyson touched on,
7:07
Speaker 7: but they didn't really go into detail, and that's that
7:10
Speaker 7: they talk about how consumers have really still had a
7:13
Speaker 7: lot of demand for beef, which is true, except that
7:15
Speaker 7: when you look at the consumer they're trading down into
7:18
Speaker 7: like ground beef. Now when you have a shortage of cows,
7:23
Speaker 7: you know, the problem that Tyson has is that they
7:27
Speaker 7: have to put higher quality parts of the animal into
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Speaker 7: grind in order to sell it, which means that their
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Speaker 7: profit per animal is coming down. And that's a concern
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Speaker 7: over the long term if those changes in behavior patterns
7:40
Speaker 7: don't alter in the near future.
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Speaker 5: All right, you know, during our little egg shortage, my
7:45
Speaker 5: scientific analysis was basically just make more chickens. Tyson's are
7:50
Speaker 5: the chicken people. I think, what are they saying about
7:53
Speaker 5: the chicken population these days and eggs and all that
7:56
Speaker 5: kind of stuff, because they're the folks that know.
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Speaker 7: Yeah, so the chicken supply is actually pretty healthy from
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Speaker 7: a standpoint of the chickens that are used for consumption,
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Speaker 7: they really weren't impacted all that much by avian influenza,
8:09
Speaker 7: and so that was the good news. The bad news
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Speaker 7: is that the mortality rates on the type of chicken
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Speaker 7: that they're currently using is still pretty high. So that
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Speaker 7: means that they're not getting as many chickens into the
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Speaker 7: processing plants that they normally would given the number of
8:24
Speaker 7: eggs that are being laid, and so that is an
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Speaker 7: inherent top or cap to supply. So supply is robust.
8:32
Speaker 7: It's going to grow about one percent this year, but
8:36
Speaker 7: there are some constraints there with how much more they
8:38
Speaker 7: could actually grow supply overall.
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Speaker 2: What's the tariff impact, if any, on Tyson? On both
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Speaker 2: sides the demand and supply.
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Speaker 7: For Tyson, Actually they have very limited exposure for tariffs.
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Speaker 7: They set on their call today about ninety five percent
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Speaker 7: of their revenue comes from product that's sold in the
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Speaker 7: United States. Their export is relatively small, and they've had
9:00
Speaker 7: some time to work on contingency plans, so finding different
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Speaker 7: end markets that they can send some of the parts
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Speaker 7: of animals that US consumers just don't eat. So right
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Speaker 7: now it doesn't appear to be a very large risk
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Speaker 7: for Tyson at all.
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Speaker 5: You mentioned maybe some issue with the cow herd. I mean,
9:17
Speaker 5: I watched Yosemite. I know all about the ranching business
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Speaker 5: to see it. Yeah, so I mean, can't we make
9:23
Speaker 5: more cows? What's going on there?
9:25
Speaker 7: We can make more cows. The problem is that for ranchers,
9:30
Speaker 7: it's a tough environment to decide to actually build up herds.
9:33
Speaker 7: Interest rates are still relatively high, there's still high cost
9:36
Speaker 7: to expand operations. We've had drought that's only just reversing
9:41
Speaker 7: in a lot of the key areas where we raise cattle,
9:44
Speaker 7: and so that decision has been coming. But the problem
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Speaker 7: is that once you even start, you know, it takes
9:51
Speaker 7: eighteen months to get a cattle for birth to market.
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Speaker 7: So even if they start today, we're not going to
9:56
Speaker 7: see an influxus supply for quite some time.
9:59
Speaker 2: I feel like just a few years ago it was
10:00
Speaker 2: all about alternative protein. I remember, particularly with Cargil for example,
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Speaker 2: they're making a really big push into that. Has that
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Speaker 2: trend for these guys shifted now?
10:10
Speaker 7: It has. When we look at the consumer consumption data,
10:13
Speaker 7: the luster around plant based has really fallen off. And
10:18
Speaker 7: so you know, right now there's a core demographic that
10:22
Speaker 7: will always be interested in that product, but at the
10:26
Speaker 7: at the moment, it's not growing. The sales are continuing
10:29
Speaker 7: to contract. Part of that is that the cost of
10:32
Speaker 7: regular meat has come down, and we had food inflation
10:36
Speaker 7: which pushed the cost of special ingredients for alternative meat
10:39
Speaker 7: way up. So the price gap between alternative proteins and
10:43
Speaker 7: conventional proteins got a lot wider in the last couple
10:45
Speaker 7: of years, and it still hasn't completely collapsed again. And
10:48
Speaker 7: so until that gets a little bit closer, it's going
10:51
Speaker 7: to be harder to get consumers to get interested again
10:54
Speaker 7: in alternative proteins.
10:55
Speaker 5: So what is it the tysons of the world, What
10:58
Speaker 5: are they saying about their consumer these days?
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Speaker 7: So you know, they talk about the demand for protein,
11:05
Speaker 7: and this is something where at the Bloomberg Bloomberg Intelligence
11:08
Speaker 7: Farm Food Fuel Conference we had a whole suit of
11:11
Speaker 7: panelists on protein and the demand for protein is really strong,
11:16
Speaker 7: Whether you're talking about animal protein, whether you're talking about dairy,
11:20
Speaker 7: current diet trends are high protein based, and so that
11:24
Speaker 7: really bodes well for for producers like Tyson as as
11:29
Speaker 7: the consumer is willing to still spend on protein and
11:32
Speaker 7: it's in the majority of their purchases when they're going
11:35
Speaker 7: to the grocery store.
11:36
Speaker 2: So true big protein person.
11:39
Speaker 5: Well, who isn't who doesn't.
11:41
Speaker 2: Like to actively search for protein that feels different?
11:44
Speaker 5: Doesn't it?
11:46
Speaker 4: All? Right?
11:47
Speaker 2: Fair enough?
11:48
Speaker 5: Last night?
11:49
Speaker 2: Yeah burgers, but then you get cholesterol issues. Okay, anyway, Jen,
11:53
Speaker 2: thanks a lot. Jennifer Bartasha's as she joins us from
11:55
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence and your analyst retail staples and packaged food.
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12:14
Speaker 5: Alex del poulswehen you live here, and a Bloomberg Interactive
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Speaker 5: broker's studio streaming live on YouTube as well. On the
12:20
Speaker 5: trade front, President Trump suggests that some trade deals may
12:24
Speaker 5: come as soon as this week. How about that? And
12:27
Speaker 5: the current global economy reporter for Bloomberg News. He joins us,
12:30
Speaker 5: he's down there in DC, and how do you think
12:33
Speaker 5: this thing is going to play out here? Is it
12:35
Speaker 5: country by country by country by country that we're going
12:38
Speaker 5: to have to wait for trade deals to be announced.
12:42
Speaker 8: Well, it's something of a tease from President Trump. We're
12:44
Speaker 8: about a month now, it's just over months Liberation Day.
12:48
Speaker 8: The presidents picked the point that there may or may
12:49
Speaker 8: not be some agreements coming in this week. And he
12:51
Speaker 8: wasn't being specific. He wasn't He was quite vague, and
12:54
Speaker 8: he was being asked by reporters about this. But what
12:57
Speaker 8: we do know from an administration efficiency is that folks
13:00
Speaker 8: are ongoing with several countries they have identified at different times.
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Speaker 8: Japan is near the top of that list. India could
13:07
Speaker 8: be near the top of that list. South Korea could
13:09
Speaker 8: be near the top of that list. So there could
13:11
Speaker 8: be some kind of agreement reached with one of those
13:15
Speaker 8: at some point soon.
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Speaker 4: Now.
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Speaker 8: The question then becomes the details of that agreement, and
13:19
Speaker 8: that's where everybody will be parising this. Well, what sort
13:23
Speaker 8: of moves had been made on non tariff barriers to
13:25
Speaker 8: satisfy in Washington, for example, what kind of concessions have
13:28
Speaker 8: been made on.
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Speaker 4: Maybe investment into the US. Where will the actual US
13:32
Speaker 4: tariffs settle?
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Speaker 8: All of those may well obviously offer nuggets, for sure,
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Speaker 8: but it also may off our roadmap for other economies
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Speaker 8: to say, I am like, we can do that too,
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Speaker 8: and come to the table to the US to try
13:43
Speaker 8: and work it out.
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Speaker 4: So, you know, we don't have specifics yet.
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Speaker 8: It's a little bit vague, but clearly something's coming down
13:49
Speaker 8: the pipes at some point soon.
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Speaker 2: But I understand that the agreement versus like an MoU
13:54
Speaker 2: versus a deal, they all mean different things. But do
13:57
Speaker 2: we think anything that's on paper at this point, even
14:00
Speaker 2: as a member of understanding, would that count as getting
14:03
Speaker 2: something done and tick that box?
14:06
Speaker 8: And as the role of Congress and all of this
14:07
Speaker 8: that there's so skeptics say, look, negotiating a real meaningful
14:11
Speaker 8: trade deal takes months, if not years, of protracted trade talks. Okay,
14:15
Speaker 8: so clearly that can't be done in weeks. Nonetheless, I
14:19
Speaker 8: think what people are looking at for is a first
14:22
Speaker 8: of all, what is actually greed, but most importantly, where
14:25
Speaker 8: will US tariff rates settle in the air terms.
14:28
Speaker 4: Remember, all of.
14:29
Speaker 8: Those what were described as reciprocal tariffs or those levels
14:32
Speaker 8: that were set pretty high for you know, money.
14:34
Speaker 4: Trading partners right around the world.
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Speaker 8: If the tariff level is maybe back towards this ten
14:39
Speaker 8: percent based on level, then that might suggest that, you know,
14:43
Speaker 8: that's where things might settle. If you could deal with
14:44
Speaker 8: the US, could deal with the US, and you settle
14:46
Speaker 8: for that based on ten percent, that's the way for
14:48
Speaker 8: But of course.
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Speaker 4: If it's not on that tariff level is higher. That's
14:51
Speaker 4: what I think about. A lot of people are going
14:53
Speaker 4: to keep an eye out for.
14:55
Speaker 5: Who's driving the bus here. Is it the President? Is
14:57
Speaker 5: it his trade advisors? Who's kind of because there's a
15:00
Speaker 5: lot of balls in the area when you think about
15:02
Speaker 5: all the countries that are presumably in negotiations with the US.
15:06
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think there must be at least a dozen
15:08
Speaker 8: or so in serious negotiations, and of course they say
15:11
Speaker 8: they're talking to up to seventy. I think it is
15:13
Speaker 8: all governments all together. It's you know, it seems to
15:16
Speaker 8: be different personal he's playing different roles treasure sectors. Got president,
15:19
Speaker 8: it's clearly front and center for the aged trade talks.
15:22
Speaker 8: He's kind of made that clear. The trade representative career
15:26
Speaker 8: obviously is kind of the technical guy behind the scenes,
15:29
Speaker 8: he would be involved in all of this, and of
15:31
Speaker 8: course Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik, He's seems to be more vocal,
15:35
Speaker 8: maybe in the European side, but they're all playing the
15:36
Speaker 8: role or all part of it. But ultimately, you know,
15:39
Speaker 8: as the older officials say, and as we can say,
15:42
Speaker 8: the anside looking and ultimately President Trump will make that agreement,
15:44
Speaker 8: He will decide whatever will be decided. The market rally
15:48
Speaker 8: in recent weeks will of course give the administration a
15:50
Speaker 8: lot of confidence that what they're trying to do is
15:53
Speaker 8: the right thing. But at the same time, we all
15:56
Speaker 8: know that they got pretty nervous, you know, couple of
16:00
Speaker 8: weeks ago, and they did pull back for the pose
16:02
Speaker 8: ownership with Carr. So a lot of folks on what
16:04
Speaker 8: kind of what level of terwer will be great in
16:07
Speaker 8: their term and what the roadmap will be from there
16:09
Speaker 8: on for these for all the countries involvement.
16:12
Speaker 2: And super appreciate thank you so much and the current
16:14
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Global Ecademy reporter joining us on those three deals
16:18
Speaker 2: that may come as soon as this week.
16:22
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Speaker 5: Alex Still, Paul Swinni live here in our Bloomberg Interactive
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Speaker 5: Broker Studio, streaming live on YouTube. Michael McKee joins us here. Mike,
16:43
Speaker 5: what do you think about some of the economic data
16:45
Speaker 5: we get the it Some services came out, you know,
16:48
Speaker 5: better and expected, But boy, that pricious paid number you
16:51
Speaker 5: kind of jump out at you. How do you pick
16:53
Speaker 5: that all in?
16:53
Speaker 9: Well, I think you're seeing the beginning. I'd better hear
16:56
Speaker 9: more about John Touch.
16:59
Speaker 6: Back in the day.
17:00
Speaker 9: I think what you're seeing is the beginnings of the
17:02
Speaker 9: impacts of the tariffs. This is soft data, essentially, but
17:08
Speaker 9: it has a sort of a hard component to it,
17:11
Speaker 9: in that the ism is asking what's happening in your
17:15
Speaker 9: business this month? And if you go under the hood,
17:18
Speaker 9: you see that imports have dropped a lot and prices
17:23
Speaker 9: paid went up a lot, and those two things are
17:27
Speaker 9: probably going to be connected. Also, inventories went up because
17:31
Speaker 9: people front loaded ordering. The interesting thing about it, though,
17:35
Speaker 9: was that new orders were still rising. So it may
17:39
Speaker 9: be that the businesses are retrenching but the customers have
17:43
Speaker 9: not yet, or it may be that the customers are
17:46
Speaker 9: looking to those who import to keep them going, which
17:51
Speaker 9: they may or may not be.
17:52
Speaker 4: Able to do.
17:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, eleven industries reported growth last month, led by accommodation
17:57
Speaker 2: and food service. Is only six industries contracted. When do
18:01
Speaker 2: you think we're going to get a clean read on
18:03
Speaker 2: all these numbers.
18:04
Speaker 9: It's going to probably be over a period of time,
18:08
Speaker 9: depending on the number and how businesses react to a
18:12
Speaker 9: specific data point. I would imagine that you're not going
18:17
Speaker 9: to get a full picture of it until either July
18:21
Speaker 9: or August, when we know what the tariffs are. Remember
18:26
Speaker 9: the reciprocal tariffs are postponed until July, so that could
18:30
Speaker 9: hang out there for a long time. When we know
18:33
Speaker 9: that the tariffs are, that will help, and when we
18:37
Speaker 9: see how people react to it, both other countries, whether
18:40
Speaker 9: they're reciprocal tariffs or whether they come to some kind
18:47
Speaker 9: of a deal. So at this point, it's really hard
18:49
Speaker 9: to say when you'll know, but I suspect it's going
18:54
Speaker 9: to be one of those things that slowly becomes obvious.
18:59
Speaker 5: How about to the federies are they going to be
19:01
Speaker 5: slow to kind of recognize what may be happening out
19:04
Speaker 5: there in terms of inflation and growth.
19:06
Speaker 9: Unless we get some sort of rapid movement in either
19:09
Speaker 9: one of those things, which nobody is really predicting at
19:12
Speaker 9: the moment, they're going to be slow because there's no
19:15
Speaker 9: benefit to them to moving quickly. If the economy is
19:20
Speaker 9: slowing down, then the question becomes how slow And with
19:25
Speaker 9: inflation still above target et cetera, et cetera, then the
19:30
Speaker 9: Fed doesn't want to get into a situation where it's
19:33
Speaker 9: boosting inflation by cutting rates too quickly, so they'll just
19:36
Speaker 9: wait and see. And the economy is in pretty good
19:40
Speaker 9: shape right now, appears with the numbers still doing okay
19:44
Speaker 9: and inflation still slowly coming down, so no problem for them.
19:50
Speaker 2: That's one of the arguments too for the OPEC plus
19:53
Speaker 2: production increase, right It's like, hey, listen, the hard dat
19:56
Speaker 2: is actually okay. Maybe there can There are lots of
19:59
Speaker 2: reasons why this is to do it, but maybe it's
20:01
Speaker 2: the market can actually absorb it because we haven't seen
20:04
Speaker 2: demand necessarily a fall off a cliff.
20:07
Speaker 9: Well, it sets up an interesting question about how consumers
20:10
Speaker 9: will react if gasoline prices start going down, and then
20:14
Speaker 9: how the FED reacts to that. I guess if in
20:18
Speaker 9: headline inflation goes down because gasoline prices and energy prices
20:22
Speaker 9: go down, and I suspect they will try to look
20:24
Speaker 9: through that as much as possible because they know that
20:26
Speaker 9: could easily change, and because the real issue is going
20:32
Speaker 9: to be is the economy slowing down. If the economy
20:34
Speaker 9: is slowing down, that's going to put a drag on inflation.
20:36
Speaker 9: It's also going to mean that that money that you
20:39
Speaker 9: would have spent somewhere else because you're not spending it
20:41
Speaker 9: on gas, you may not be spending it anyway because
20:44
Speaker 9: you're trying to cut back and save money.
20:46
Speaker 5: You know, just you know, you're paying attention here to
20:48
Speaker 5: a lot of the speakers out at the Milking conference today,
20:50
Speaker 5: and a lot of them, you know, whether it's Bill Aufman,
20:52
Speaker 5: Paul Taubman, mister Rowan from Apollo, all saying yeah, there's
20:56
Speaker 5: uncertainty out there and there's some issues out there as
21:00
Speaker 5: it's to their businesses. Yet Secretary Beston calls the US
21:03
Speaker 5: quote the premier destination for global capital. So I guess
21:07
Speaker 5: that's the argument of near term paying maybe long term
21:09
Speaker 5: gain from the industry.
21:10
Speaker 9: Well, it is still we have the largest deepest capital markets,
21:18
Speaker 9: especially on the treasury side on the bond side, so
21:21
Speaker 9: there are not a lot of alternatives if you want
21:23
Speaker 9: to move a lot of money around. But most of
21:26
Speaker 9: what Scott Besson was saying today was a sales pitch
21:30
Speaker 9: to you highlight the administration's economic agenda. The one bit
21:36
Speaker 9: of news I thought to the extended's news was his
21:40
Speaker 9: description of how he would see the ten year yield dropping,
21:44
Speaker 9: because he's made a big deal out of that being
21:46
Speaker 9: sort of the benchmark rate for business activity. And his
21:51
Speaker 9: argument was, you lower the budget deficit because then takes
21:57
Speaker 9: some of the credit risk out of the bond market,
21:59
Speaker 9: and rates can drop if if you take out the
22:03
Speaker 9: you know, the premium, the risk premiums.
22:06
Speaker 5: And he was talking about one percentage point per year
22:09
Speaker 5: ideally would be as you know, the deficit to or
22:13
Speaker 5: debt to GDP would be meaningful now.
22:16
Speaker 9: But but the obviously one if you follow the budget process,
22:21
Speaker 9: has to laugh because the budget that they are working
22:25
Speaker 9: on this year, the recond through through reconciliation, raises the
22:30
Speaker 9: budget deficit.
22:32
Speaker 4: Uh.
22:32
Speaker 9: And that's even beyond just the machinations they're doing to
22:37
Speaker 9: avoid the reconciliation rules. They want to spend more money,
22:43
Speaker 9: and every day Donald Trump is talking about spending more money,
22:46
Speaker 9: let's rebuild Alcatraz, Uh right kind of thing. So, uh,
22:50
Speaker 9: we're not going to get that one percent per year
22:52
Speaker 9: definit of decline, I don't think, And so it kind
22:55
Speaker 9: of makes his argument not not relevant at this point.
23:01
Speaker 2: And you're headed off to d see tonight or tomorrow.
23:05
Speaker 2: When do you go tomorrow? The FED meeting? Any firework?
23:08
Speaker 9: No, just one.
23:09
Speaker 2: I was like fire, Why didn't say work, firework?
23:11
Speaker 4: Fire?
23:12
Speaker 9: It's not even uh, not even one firework. I don't
23:15
Speaker 9: think we will get no move on rates. The FED
23:20
Speaker 9: will be very circumspect about what it says in its
23:23
Speaker 9: statement because they can't They can tell us what's been happening,
23:27
Speaker 9: which is okay, but they have to emphasize we don't
23:30
Speaker 9: know what's going to happen going forward. And then there's
23:32
Speaker 9: no new economic forecast, there's no new dot plot.
23:36
Speaker 5: There is only.
23:37
Speaker 9: Jay Powell, and I suspect Jay, I suspect. We get
23:42
Speaker 9: a lot of questions that are answered by I don't.
23:45
Speaker 2: Know fair enough. That's a lot of the questions that
23:48
Speaker 2: we also ask an answer to a right. Mike Thanks Lot.
23:50
Speaker 2: Mike mcke Bloomerg Inter National Economics and Policy correspondent.
23:54
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