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130: The Fall Rain Timeline You Need to Know with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

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  Happy Friday and welcome to another episode of the Cattle
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  USA Daily Podcast. Today we are welcoming back Gary
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  Lezak with the Weather 2020 team and Garry's talking all things
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  weather, long term weather predictions and what we are
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  seeing currently in the weather pattern.
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  And then he drops a pretty big bombshell on what we are going
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  to be seeing going into harvest. So the end of September, early
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  October, he drops some pretty big news that everyone needs to
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  be listening to on what we're going to be seeing at the end
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  and beginning of those months and how you guys can start
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  preparing for that as well. So without further ado, let's go
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  ahead and hop into this episode with Gary.
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  Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily podcast, your go to source for
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  the latest livestock markets, industry insights and the
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  updates shaping agriculture today.
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  I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
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  agriculture here to keep you informed and connected.
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  Now let's dive into today's episode.
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  Welcome to the podcast. Welcome back.
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  Thank you. It's great to be here.
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  A lot going on. We are in the 1st 10 days of
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  August so a lot to talk about today.
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  How are you? I am great.
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  I am great. It is a beautiful day here in
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  Kansas. I cannot complain.
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  It's it's a busy day. It's a busy day.
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  It's been a crazy morning already and it's going to be a
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  busy rest of my day, but I'm excited for it.
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  It's great. I my like caffeine.
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  I don't really have caffeine in the mornings when I'm just like
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  at home. I'm not like a morning coffee
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  drinker typically now if I'm going out and about, I'm going
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  to go get a coffee. Like I'm I'm going to go out and
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  get a coffee. I'm just not going to make one
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  at home. But my morning energy levels are
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  finally starting to kick in. So like I'm I'm ready to go.
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  Like that, that was my first sip of coffee.
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  That was right there. My first sip of coffee.
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  I did the philosophy and it absolutely works.
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  I'm, I'm going to just attest to this.
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  I had three big glasses of water, well, 2 1/2 it's almost
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  done, 2 1/2 big glasses of water before I had any coffee.
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  And it it's energizing and it's good to, to flush your system.
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  Let's just put it that way. It's good to feel good.
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  No, it is. And then also, even if you don't
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  drink that many cups of water before you drink your coffee,
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  you should wait at least 90 minutes after waking to drink
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  your coffee and caffeine because like it doesn't actually like
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  work in your system properly until that time anyway.
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  So you should just wait the 90 minutes because your.
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  Body wow I love that 90 it's been 95 minutes so.
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  Perfect timing. Perfect timing.
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  Wonderful, wonderful. Well, Gary, what is happening as
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  far as the world of weather goes?
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  Well, while we're recording this on the Wednesday before the
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  Friday, let me just tell you this, thunderstorms moving into
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  Northwest Missouri, They were up in North Dakota yesterday and
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  they produced 3 to 5 inches of rain across North Dakota, SE
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  North Dakota, Fargo area. And it's a prediction.
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  Dean Wysocki, who works up at WDAY Radio up there as a
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  meteorologist, he predicted it three months ago using the LRC
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  on the Jay Thomas show up there. He said, listen, they have this
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  big festival going on right now. And I said that week, that week
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  it is going to be, which is this week, a very stormy week.
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  So it is right on schedule and now that compost of
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  thunderstorms, sometimes these complex of thunderstorms have a
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  mind of their own and they're like little hurricanes over the
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  land. And this looks like one of
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  those. It's got a big complex, we call
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  it the mesoscale convective system and MCS.
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  And in 4 northern Nordico yesterday and here it is while
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  we're recording this is moving into Northwest Missouri and may
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  make it all the way to Kansas City this morning.
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  So not that it's hard to predict them.
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  I mean, we thought there was a slight chance, but here it's
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  coming anyway. That's been dragging right
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  across these cornfields. And we have a a United States
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  bumper crop of corn and soybeans in progress.
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  I'm sure most of the farmers are going to attest to that.
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  There are still struggled areas, but it's I'm sure the price of
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  corn is down and and other areas of the world are not that lucky.
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  Ukraine is one of those. Ukraine, a big agriculture
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  nation, Of course they're in war right now, unfortunately, but
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  they have also been suffering through a horrible drought for
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  two years in a row, and it's all LRC related.
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  It's predictable. Around the world, the pattern is
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  cycling across the whole northern hemisphere regularly at
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  about every six weeks. Yes, wow, craziness.
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  What are what are our thoughts going into the rest of this
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  month? It's finally the 1st of August,
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  which, Oh my gosh, I can't even like fathom.
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  OK, it's not the 1st of August, it's the 6th of August, but it's
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  beginning of August. Now how, how did July?
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  A how did July go by that quickly?
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  I don't know. B, where did summer go?
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  C Like how was it already time for college students to, like,
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  start coming back to town? Right, I don't get it.
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  I don't get it. I know, Scott.
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  College students are already back ready to go, moving into
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  their dorms, moving into their apartments or wherever, and they
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  are ready to roll. So yeah, I know time is flying
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  by. You got to stop and smell the
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  roses and enjoy every day. As we talked about on this
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  podcast, the inspirational message of the day is to just
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  take a deep breath through your nose.
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  Relax. Look outside.
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  I'm seeing the blue sky and right now is all that matters
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  and it is great for every one of us.
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  It is. Right now is all that matters.
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  It's great. No matter how bad or good it is,
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  it's great it. Is great.
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  That's my inspirational message of the day.
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  So to answer your question, there's a lot going on.
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  Remember early on when we first started talking and many times
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  we talked about, you know, the blue sky part of the pattern,
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  which we are sort of in right now, but it's going by And the
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  two phases of this weather pattern, there was a phase one
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  that lasts 2 to 3 weeks at a time and a phase 2A.
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  Phase 1 is when storm citizens come into the western United
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  States, drop in through the Rockies and the Southwest, allow
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  moisture to get pulled in from the Gulf of Mexico and that
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  could be very wet across the southern Plains, the Central
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  Plains. And there's a phase two that we
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  are in at this moment that has storm systems being blocked from
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  the West Coast that come down through Montana and North
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  Dakota, like this one that's coming in right now that
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  produced all that rain we talked about at the festival.
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  And then they move into the Great Lakes and out and they can
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  produce lake effect snow, cooler weather.
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  And these two phases have been going right on schedule.
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  Remember, the weather pattern is cycling at about every 41 days.
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  So right now we're in the phase two-part of the pattern, and
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  it's no shock. One of these systems is coming
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  into northern Missouri from the north right now.
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  Within the next 10 days, it's going to switch back to the
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  first phase. But it's the August version of
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  the winter patterns, so you're not going to have snow,
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  obviously. So what does this mean here?
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  Here's what's happened in the first phase of the pattern.
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  All right. The first phase, phase one,
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  which is the storm air phase, Kansas City had 25 inches of
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  rain so far in this first phase and only 9 inches of rain in
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  this Phase 2. So phase 125 inches, Phase 29
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  inches, Des Moines, IA, 21 inches of rain in phase one and
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  about 11 inches or a half of that almost in phase two in
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  North Dakota when they're more impacted by phase two.
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  North Dakota just had three to five inches of rain yesterday.
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  That puts them up to 13 to 14 inches of rain now in phase two
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  and only 9 inches in Phase 1. So Phase 2 is what across the
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  northern Plains, Phase one is white across the central and
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  southern Plains. And because of this
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  understanding of this early on in December, we were able to
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  accurately predict. And many of you farmers out
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  there would love to get some testimonials, let us know.
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  But you know, we were saying there's just not going to be a
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  major drought and major heat wave.
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  There has been almost no drought and all and a couple of small
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  heat waves. And otherwise the pattern has
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  been cycling and it's that's what's produced to conditions
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  for what's likely going to be a bumper crop.
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  I mean, I guess it's still a wild card.
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  We're getting closer to harvest, but I'm sure a lot of the corn
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  is awfully healthy out there most areas with a few
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  exceptions. So, yeah, so we're we're in
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  phase two of the pattern now. And then here's very interesting
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  for you wondering about harvest because I know Lauren is going
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  there goes Gary. He's just going to talk the
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  whole 20 minutes here. Hush up, I love to hear your
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  voice. You talk away.
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  But I'm just saying is that is that pattern of cycling.
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  So we're going to go back into phase one, August 13th, 14th,
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  then last to September 4th, then we go back into phase two,
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  September 4th, 5th, 6th for about two weeks till about
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  September 20th to September 25th.
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  Very important fact here. Listen to this.
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  Here's a long range forecast for all of you farmers out there,
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  all of you Kennel USA fans. September 20th to 25th phase one
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  will begin as the jet stream is dropping farther South.
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  So we know Phase 1 brings storms into the West.
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  So that means there's probably going to be an early, we'll call
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  it a rare early storm across the Pacific Northwest that will drop
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  into the Rockies and possibly be very wet, maybe too wet.
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  September 25th, October 10th, because new LRC is setting up.
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  So I'm predicting right now the end of September, early October,
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  1st, half October as the new LRC sets up is phase one of the this
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  pattern that's going to be going away, but it's still there.
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  It could be too wet. So for harvest planning, I don't
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  know if you can plan it. I'm not the expert at it, but
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  try to get some a lot of that done before September 20th or
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  25th in case that does happen like I'm predicting.
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  Yes, good to know that is cane information there for all of you
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  listeners out. There, it's like a mic drop.
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  It's only a mic drop if it actually happens.
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  Honestly. Yeah, that's that's honest.
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  It's going to happen. Probability is 90%.
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  Yeah, Garry's predictability, like actual accuracy is at 90%,
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  guys. So like, I believe it.
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  I believe that it's going to happen.
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  It's just when, when in that period, when in those days is it
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  going to happen? All of those things that still a
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  little bit up in the air, but we're at least able to sit here
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  multiple months in advance and be like, hey, during this time
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  period we're going to see extended spouts of rainfall,
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  moisture, all of that. Be prepared, be ready.
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  And and another point, Lauren, very good, good.
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  Thank you very much for that. But let me tell you another
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  point is the last two years at least, and it might be longer
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  than that, we have last year's pattern had its own phases, OK,
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  the year before that completely different pattern.
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  Every year's pattern is unique. So, So what as we go into the
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  end of September, October and we get in that wet pattern, The
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  last two years I know for sure were the opposite.
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  It was the drier phase of the weather pattern.
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  And last couple years in October it started out very dry and very
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  concerning for drought. So as we were at the beginning
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  of last year's LRC, a lot of people were going, Oh my God, is
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  this going to be a dry weather pattern, including me?
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  Because remember, the LRC does not set up until late September.
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  Early October is the beginning and the beginning of the pattern
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  we're in now started October 5th, 6th or 7th.
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  And I'll tell you why that is it a second.
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  And then then last two years that October 5th, 6th or 7th was
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  the beginning of the new pattern was started with a dry part of
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  that old pattern. So it was dry.
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  However, as it evolved, we were able to identify the phase one
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  and phase two and the rest is history.
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  So why does the pattern start October 5th, 6th or 7th?
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  We've talked about it before, but just let me explain.
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  There is astronomical reasons. Why wouldn't there be
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  astronomical reasons to the LRC? It causes the Earth rotates on
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  its axis once every 24 hours. The Earth rotates around the sun
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  once every three, 365 and a quarter days.
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  It's 365 and a quarter. That's why every four years we
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  have to have a leap year where we take, we add a day and so to
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  the calendar to, to, to get that back into rhythm.
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  If we didn't have a day, then summer would become winter in
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  about 40 years and so 100 years. So just know that.
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  But so these natural cycles in astronomy happen, why wouldn't
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  they be impacting our cycling pattern on the Earth?
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  But the weather pattern is a fluid and the fluid oscillates.
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  It's not as direct as the Earth rotating on its axis.
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  And so that's why we have the river Vera above us flowing
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  around 41 days, but it oscillates between 38 and 44.
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  This year, next year will be different.
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  Just know this causes the sunsets at the North Pole
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  September 23rd every year. There's only 1 sunset at the
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  North Pole. It's on September 23rd.
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  It rises on the spring equinox and then October 5th, 6th or 7th
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  when it goes dark there and that's when the LRC sets up.
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  So there's got to be a relationship to astronomy.
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  So much correlation. That's so cool.
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  You'd like. The more you think about it, the
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  more you're like, that makes sense.
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  Like the more you know, the more you know, Before we round out
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  the podcast or anything, any other major weather things going
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  on, hurricane season, anything we need to hit on there as we're
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  going into it? Any other highs or lows that we
• 15:08
  need to talk about in the weather?
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  Yeah, I posted it. I did a YouTube.
• 15:12
  You can phone Weather 2020 on YouTube, subscribe to that
• 15:16
  Channel too. But I posted there and on
• 15:18
  weather2020.supstack.com. Definitely join that.
• 15:23
  Yes, we got it in the show, notes people.
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  OK, good. Double going and join
• 15:27
  weather2020.substec.com. Let me let me tell you, we I put
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  it in there that within 10 days our first hurricane is going to
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  form. Some of the models don't have
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  it, some of the models do, but the LRC says yes and there are
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  two chances, one that would threaten the South Carolina and
• 15:44
  North Carolina and one that would threaten Florida or sneak
• 15:47
  into the Gulf of Mexico. So we're watching these two, two
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  parts of the cycling weather pattern that have produced in
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  the past. So we're looking for that.
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  So next week when we talk, I'm expecting us to be talking about
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  our first hurricane is developing.
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  So one week from now. Very, very good to know.
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  Well, Gary, thank you for your time today as always, and for
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  all of your knowledge and all of the things that you share with
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  our audience. We so appreciate it here at the
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  team. To all of our listeners out
• 16:20
  there, make sure you check out the show notes.
• 16:21
  I have all of Gary's social medias from his ex to his
• 16:24
  YouTube to his Facebook, which he's very entertaining on all of
• 16:27
  them. So make sure you go check those
• 16:29
  out. And then got that sub stack, got
• 16:32
  that exclusive Cattle USA link where you guys can head down
• 16:35
  there and get the Weather 2020 dashboard with an exclusive link
• 16:39
  because you are a viewer of our podcast.
• 16:41
  So Gary, thank you for your time to all of our listeners out
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  there. We will see you all tomorrow.
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  Well, not tomorrow. This comes out on Friday.
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  We'll see you on Monday on another episode.
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  Have a good one y'all.