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The Favorites - NFL Week 8 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: our Tuesday, Week eight episode where we break down the
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: entire slate of NFL games. We will discuss our execu decision,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: our Simon says, start to narrow down the options for
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: our five faves to put in the Favorites podcast one
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pickam Contest two and three
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: this past week. Once again, we won by betting on
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: the best teams with the best quarterbacks i e. Jared
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Goff and Patrick Mahomes. We lost by betting on bad
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: team by a bad team in a trendy spot, and
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: by betting against a good defense in a train spot.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Lots of lessons, so many. In fact, my co host
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: is going to love this. I spent part of yesterday
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: categorizing our losses to see if I could find a
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: pattern in our decision making. And I did. I did.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: I'm excited to share it live from our Tommy John
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Home studios. I'm joined as always by my co host,
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional Better So I'm
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: in Hunter.
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: Hello, So I'm in gonna save you so much time chat.
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: It's pretty simple.
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: We like home dogs, and the home dogs have been
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: getting killed. I mean, I think any bookmaker you talk to,
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: this has been what the worst two week run they've
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: had since legalization. I mean, every chalk favorites winning. So,
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: like I always say, it's we're barely keeping our head
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: above water. Right now, we are drowning, but we're avoiding
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: these zero to five weeks, which I am terrified of
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: because we never had one. And yeah, yeah, we luckily
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: have bet some chalk and that's what's winning. And we
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: talked about the smart sides we take, missing field goals, turnovers, refs,
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: all of it is not bouncing our way, and it'll turn.
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: Like I always say, we can't change what we do
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: check because once we change, it's going to go the
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: other way.
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: So, yeah, if you've.
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: Been taking these ugly dogs with us, have faith. This
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: is year six. We've never had a losing season. The
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: ugly dogs will come through. We're just in a little
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: bit of a rough patch.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Well last night was another example. Right, we had the
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: box at plus three and a half. They start out
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: to nothing. They have a touchdown called back because of holding.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: They have Mike Evans, one of the greatest receivers of
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: all time, drop a touchdown that is in his hands
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: in the end zone. Then Baker throws a pick, then
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: they miss a field goal. Next thing you know, it's
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: thirty four to ten. And even when that happened, like,
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: I made notes in my phone like that, I was
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: going to text you and and I just didn't. I'm like,
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: you cannot win a game if you're giving up seventeen
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: points in the first half, right, meaning you're giving away
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: seventeen points. And yet the reason we bet that game
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: last night is because we truly believed the Bucks would
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: always be in it and have a chance to back door.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: Because the Ravens, by the way, have given up the
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: most points in the NFL in the second half this year.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: That trend continued yesterday. There's one other team that's actually
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: tied with them fifteen point seven points per game. We're
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: going to talk about it. As you mentioned, Simon, road
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: favorites since Week five are sixteen and two. Geez, yeah,
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Like we cannot win if road favorites dominated, because all
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: we do is bet ugly home dogs. Our results on
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: that trend. By the way, from this past week. We
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: bet against the Bengals, who covered. We bet against the Eagles,
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: who covered. We bet against the Ravens, who, of course
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: the one the one road favorite. We bet on New
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: York Jets. They did not win. Overall road teams sixty
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: one percent against the spread this season. That's the second
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: best win percentage through seven weeks in the wild Card Era.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: In a moment, we'll recap the results of week seven
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: in our contest, will announce the winner of our big
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: weekly cash prize. If you haven't yet, be sure to
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: sign up for the Free Favorites podcast one hundred thousand
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest presented by Bet three
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: sixty five. Just visit Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. As
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented by Bet three
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: six five and now new Bet three sixty five. Customers
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Win you bet
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars,
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: place a bet for five dollars to get two hundred
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment,
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: It's never ordinary. At bet three sixty five. Must be
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen and
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms Conditions
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: restrictions apply. Contest recap Real Fast Congratulations. First place winner
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Brian G two one two. Brian went five and zero
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: nailed the Monday night football tiebreaker. He takes home the
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: max two thousand dollars weekly prize. Well done, Brian. As always,
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: our producer Matt Mitchell has selected his Producer's Cup Award
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: to the entry that finished dead fucking last in the contest.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: Have you about the loads loser?
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: He's a louis.
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: About he still keeps on.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: This week. That goes to n L Miller ninety over
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: missed the tiebreaker by three hundred and sixty four yards.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: L Miller email Matt Mitchell, our producer at podcast at
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot com to claim your fries all right week,
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: I said, I did a lot of research on Monday,
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: because it is we're having a weird year, like there
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: is something in the air when it comes to a
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: lot of these bounces, and it's been happening consistently, and
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: it's happening with all of these home dogs that we've
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: been betting on, and it's pretty excruciating. Right. Happened with
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: the Bengals and the Giants a few weeks ago in
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: the Meadowlands. Happened again the next night in the Meadowlands.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Happened again with the Bucks in Tampa Bay. So a
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: lot of the games, those the ones that we bet
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: that are ugly with bad qbs as dogs at home
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: teams we believe are undervalued by the market because of
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: underlying metrics. We've just been losing those games. The games
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: we've been winning are ones where we bet on good
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks and good teams who can overcome mistakes. So I
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: broke it down into four categories. You have no idea
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: I did this, So I'm excited to hear your response
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: to this. All right. I broke it down into good
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: teams slash public faves. That's one category of bets that
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: we've made. Bad teams slash good number slash historical trend
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: slash fade the public. That's the second category. Bad beats
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: is the third category, and then good reads, good analysis,
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: you know, good handicapping. The bet you wouldn't expect the
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: public to make, but we make it and it was
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: a good bet. So in the past, Simon, we've crushed
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: with the second category, those bad teams with a good
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: number back in the trend fading the public not surprising.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: This year we've made the most bets in that category,
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: more than fIF fifty percent of our bets in that category.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Guess how many of those games I want to we
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: have won in that category this year.
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: I would say half or maybe less than.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: How about one?
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: Geez?
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: We are one and sixteen in that category. Geeez? Is
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: that insane?
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: Doesn't even sound real.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: It's like I have it in a spreadsheet. I'm not
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: even going to share it with you. I went through
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: the action app, I went through every game. I categorized
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: it one and sixteen. Oh my god, it is absurd. Yeah,
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: that tells you everything you to know about why we're struggling.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: We've actually made the second most bets on the good team,
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: good number public category. We've won seven of those bets.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: Three of them are on Detroit, two on Green Bay.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: So that's interesting for today because those were two games
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: for this week we talked about Sunday. We've had six
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: games I would categorize as good reads finding value in
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: a team that is undervalued in the market, and then
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: we've had what I would call six bad beats. So
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: you know that one category is a real outlier and
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: explains everything about our season so far.
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: To this NFL season, though, right like Carolina, they're awful.
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: People thought they'd be awful coming in. They are awful.
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: Patriots people said they'd be awful. They've been awful. They
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: don't cover.
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: They're right on now.
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: In Tennessee Titans, everyone said they'd be awful. They're an
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: awful team. So it is tough. We do like to
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: fade public opinion, and we get a lot of value
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: in the lines on those teams, and that has.
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: Not shown up.
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: I mean that statistically is insane. I can't believe that's
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: a real stat But we said it's going to go
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: the other way. That's the thing. It's like, you can't
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: overreact to it. It's such a long season. It's going
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: to eventually come another way. It's that we can't keep
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: chasing it. Clearly though, like I guess these really bad teams,
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: we got to really take a hard look at it
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: and be like, how bad do we want to bet
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: this bad team here?
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: Yes and so, and now how much do we want
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: to make it part of the five? That's why, by
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: the way, I don't want to give suck.
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: I love some ugly dogs this week, which I know
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: I don't want. I wish you even read me that
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: stack because now it's spooking me a little.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: It's I don't want to get over intellectual about it
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: because it's just betting. But this is the fun to me,
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: this is the fun. Part of doing this is trying
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: to understand the patterns and understand what are the decisions
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: we're making that are wrong, Like we don't want to lose,
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: We don't want to lose money. We want to win.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: But it's not throwing darts like there is some analysis
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: that needs to be done. And clearly this year like
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: has been challenging. So if we don't do the underlying analysis,
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: we're not going to change our habits. And I do
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: think I do think I we can thread the needle
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: on this. I think I understand something that we'll talk
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: about that I think will influence some of our decision
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: making as we review these numbers. Have we leaned too
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: hard into trends at the tiebreakers in some of these games?
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: So I do want to I want us to be
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: thinking about that heading into overall. So far I talked,
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: actually I talked about this, the public trends and all
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: that kind of stuff. The one thing I will say
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: the public the past two weeks twenty two zero seven
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: and one against the spread, that is incredible, And teams
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: with sixty six percent or more of the tickets seventeen
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: oh and one, Well, that tells everything right there, because
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: we hate playing those teams. And yet here we are
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Minnesota at the Los Angeles Rams. Rams are three point
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: dogs at home Thursday night. Lots of reasons to like
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Minnesota in this spot, like even though it's Stafford, this
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: offensive line is a thirty first and pass block ranking
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: p pff. We know Brian Flores is going to be pressure.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Rams are bottom third and pass coverage as well. They
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: don't have a single corner in the top forty of
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: any coverage metrics going against Justin Jefferson home teams thirty
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: seven to fifty five against the spread since twenty nineteen.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: And then we got the public road faves sixty one
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: percent against the spread the past two seasons.
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: Yeah, this is gonna be pros versus jos. This is
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: going to be the professionals are on the Rams like
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: for a bunch of different reasons. The main one will be,
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: did we just see the blueprint? Chad the Detroit just
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: show everyone how you can attack this Flora's defense if
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: you have a run game, And Gush was a really
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: good run game the Rams. I mean, I think you
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: probably saw Williams had this crazy stat. I think he
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: scored in like nine or ten straight game.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: Yeah, And you know it's the same reason I like them.
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: When they're gonna play a Green Bay. It's like, you
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: can attack Green Bay if you can run the ball
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: like that really dictates the game. Well, they lose by
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: five points in that game. So I have the same
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: view year of this Minnesota team where you know, Sam
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: Darnold probably haven't given enough respect and love. Like you
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: go back and watch that Lions game. You played really
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: well and even on throws that weren't great, he was
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: started to have the best receiver in football and just Jefferson,
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: so like you know, he knows that and it went
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: in doubt when the pressures in his face. Just put
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: the ball up to him and just trust his receiver
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: to make a play. And that's really been the difference
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: of this Vikings offense this year. I mean, they've they've
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: been so good.
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: So I'm with you.
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: I'm very tempted to take Minnesota, especially after the loss,
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: but Cam Jane, Shed's to who I am. Last week I
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: gave out Denver because it was a good number. I
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: think there were two when we talked about it, and
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: it's like, if this was two and a half, I
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: probably would take Minnesota because that's a nice number. But
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: I'll be patient here. Just has to get to three
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: and a half. Who's betting the Rams with me, No
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: one but the Pros. So I'll be patient hopefully get
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: a better number. I might be getting Cooper Cup and
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: Puka back this week with the Rams, like they were
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: really smart not to waste them on that Raiders game,
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: just to hold them out for this matchup where I
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: just think, I don't know, it's a short week. Minnesota
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: played such a tough brutal game against Detroit. It feels
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: like a lot to ask them to turn around and
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: now go on the road and play this RAMS team
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: that you just said it like, if this was a
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: normal week, I probably would like the Viking. So I
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: think defensively there are things that can attack this RAMS
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: team with but being a short week, if it gets
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: up to three and a half chat, I'm probably go
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: n end up on this RAMS team.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think at three and a half you do
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: take the Rams. I think at three it's either Minnesota
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: or a pass, because I think the real challenge here
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: is with these Thursday night games, the consistent overriding factor
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: beyond to any analysis and sort of any matchup analysis,
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: has been that the more talented team when there's less
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: time to prepare is the team that ends up winning
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: these games and winning it pretty handily. And there's no
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: doubting like Minnesota is a more veteran team, they are
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: a better team. They've got a veteran defensive coach going
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: against a rookie defensive coordinator. Obviously we love Matthew Stafford,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: but that offensive line is terrible. So I do think
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: that Minnesota has a little bit of an advantage, so
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: a little different.
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: Well, no, it's doubting that Minnesota is is much better
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: than a Rams, There's no question about it.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: All Right. We finally don't have a European game an
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: England game, so we can potentially put this next game
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: into the contest if we see fit. Miami is a
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: three point favorite against Arizona. This line was three and
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: a half. We pegged it on Sunday night and we
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: liked Arizona. It made no sense to us that because
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: of Tua, this line was as high as it was.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: Since the game last night has come down to three,
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: trending towards two and a half based on what we
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: see with the juice, probably from the Cards win last night.
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: But I mean you said it the other day. Two
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: has been out for a month, so it's a lot
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: of credit for this Miami team to be all of
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: a sudden much better than it had been with Two
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: coming back.
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think from the professionals perspective, like a lot
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: of guys I talk to you that do like Miami.
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: Here's it's the two at home. We always talk about this.
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: They're a different team at home, especially when they play
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: teams that are below five hundred, right, Like historically two
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: in this offense they beat up on bad teams at
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: home in that sun. Arizona fits that description right, and
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: then you mix in Kyler Murray. I don't think he's
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: won back to back game chads and like two three years.
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: I was kind of upset that they won last night
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: because I liked this at three and a half and
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: I was worried about like him winning last night to
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: me changes things a little bit. And he's also better
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: at home.
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: We talked about, we talk about the time he's inconsistent.
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: He just he plays well and then he doesn't. Even
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: in that game last night, I know he did enough
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: to win the game, but it's like, man, is he
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: So he's just so inconsistent, and it's you know, at
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: what point did the excuses run out? Like this is
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: He's had a bunch of seasons under his belt. They
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: have all their weapons on offense, and at the end
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: of the day, it falls on Kyler. So I'm having
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: a tough time with this one because I want to I
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: want to take Arizona, but I know a lot of
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: really smart wise guys right now, like this Miami team
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: in this spot. So I'll have a better opinion for
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: it on Thursday.
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: Right right now, I'm in decided, fyi.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams is reporting that Diana Rassini of The Athletic
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: is reporting the Rams could trade Cooper Cup and are
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: willing to take on his full salary, so that could
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: have an impact on the Thursday game.
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: The other suffer to the Browns.
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: I know, right like, get let him, let him get
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: behind some type of the other offensive lineup, because I'm
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: with you, like Himba being behind that offense line of
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: the Rams. They're just it's only a matter of time
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: before he takes a bad shot.
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: One hundred percent. Couple things I would say about the
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: Dolphins so that I'm not understanding to a play in
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: the first game. To your point, they get these teams
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: that aren't very good on the road in the Sun.
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: They barely beat the Jaguars. They needed a Jason Standers
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: last second field goal to beat the Jaguars, who turns
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: out are a terrible team. They beat him by a
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: field goal two is out the next game. Since then,
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: they have not scored more than sixteen points in a
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: game without Tua. Their best player on defense is Kalais Campbell,
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: who's about one hundred and eighty three years old and
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: they actually gave up thirty one points to the Tennessee Titans. Like,
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: this is a this is not a very good team,
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: So we're giving we're giving them a lot of credit.
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: And the one thing I'll say, I looked this up
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: yesterday too. This might make a difference. This could be
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: a very close game. We expect it to be a
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: very close game. Yeah, Miami is ranked thirty first in
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: the NFL in special teams. The Arizona Cardinals have two kickers,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: two kickers, two kickers because Matt Prater was injured. That
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: rank in the top fourteen in terms of kicking according
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: to Pro Football Focus. Jason Sanders, Remember there are thirty
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: two teams in the NFL. Jason Sanders, the Dolphins kicker
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: thirty third in the NFL. He's already missed four field
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: goals this season. So just saying, yeah, a lot of
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: stuff not to like about Miami. Doesn't need to be
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: a pick right where.
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: But like, again, if it's three and a half in contest,
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: how are we not tempted? That's the whole thing with this, Like.
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: I'm totally tempted at three and a half, Like of
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: course am I already bet it. You can see it
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: in the app. I bet Arizona at three and a half.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: All right, New York Jets at New England Patriots. This
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: is what we've gotten in trouble this year, right yeah,
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: backing a bad team, bad coach. This has been sort
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: of to me where we've made the mistakes. We've blindly
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: bet numbers that we think we have to bet and
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: haven't taken into account. How bad is the team? Do
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: they not have any discernible outstanding unit? Do they not
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: have good coaching? I'm not loving this New England team
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: right now, and I think we've been blinded by a
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: lot of different things. For the record, home Division dogs
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: three nine and one against the spread this year, nineteen
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: thirty one and three thirty eight percent the past two seasons.
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: So this trend that we love home division dogs isn't
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: exactly our friend right now.
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: No, and shockingly, there's a lot of road favorites. I
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: do like this week, this spot here.
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: Like this type of game where you know, if you
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: want to be mister Joe Public, you just take the
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: Jets money line and pair it up with I don't
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: know the Chargers were at home playing against uh, New Orleans, right, Like,
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: there's ways around it where you don't have to take
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: this seven, because yeah, instinctually, this is a lot of
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: points for a Jets team that is not that good,
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: and they have a bunch of weaknesses and one of
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: them is against the run, and the Patriots do want
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: to run the ball. So I'm with you, like, this
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: is not one of the dogs I love. But I
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: can see how guys have come in and bet this
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: Patriot's high because this number did touch seven and a half.
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: Now, yeah, seven, So I see what they see on it.
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: But I'm with you.
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: It's like there's other dogs I'd rather invest in right now,
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: and Drake May and this Patriots team they're just They're
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: just not one of them.
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: So I I everything. It's weird sometimes, Simon, because you
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: and I are BFFs, and despite the generational age gap, Uh,
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: it's like we're in the same mind because I like,
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: I like how Drake May has been playing. I think
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: they're improved. I literally wrote in my notes the Jets
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: are not very good their secondary right now against a
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: rookie playing with Moxie is interesting as a matchup. I
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: think the Jets pass Rush has an advantage against this
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: O line, but the Patriots run game has an advantage
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: against the Jets rush d I lean, Pats, do not
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: think this is a top five number, a top five
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: game for us right now. Don't forget Rhode faves sixty
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: two percent against the spread this year. So I'm told
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: I see no advantage here. No, we're passing Atlanta Tampa
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: Bay Tampa Bay plus two and a half. Obviously, this
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: has moved five points since yesterday off of the Godwin injury,
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: off of the Mike Evans injury. I do feel like,
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: and we talked about this on Sunday, we screwed up
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: not fading Atlanta last week. It was the perfect spot.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: We knew it was trending that way. I think we
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: got I think we just lost the forest for the
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: trees and the number a little bit thoughts here two
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: and a half now Atlanta is a two and a
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: half boy favorites.
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: Supposed to take Atlanta.
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: I mean we've just taken away the key to this
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: this team by Baker, right, Baker, as you know much
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: Flowers we want to give him.
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: We know it's the Godwin Mike Evans effect.
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: I mean, he's got a Hall of Famer in Mike
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: Evans as one of the best red zone threats ever.
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: And then Godwin is just such a great possession receiver.
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: Anytime Baker needs that third down completion, he's always looking
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: for Godwin like he's just such a weapon. That would
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: have been huge in this matchup, Like both these guys
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: would be amazing because we talk all the time. Alanda
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: does not have a pass rush, so we would have
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: Baker with time with his two receivers.
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: It would have been great.
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: But I think we're going to see a total transformation
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: of this team now that you know they're going to be,
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: you know, running with Bucky or running it with White,
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: like they're just going to be running with their two
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: headed monster backfield.
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: And you know, I look on the flip.
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: Side with a land coming off that brutal loss, this
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: has to be a bounced back spot for them, and
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: they know if they win this, I mean, the division
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: isn't theirs, but it is right like this, they would be.
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: Now they'd be up two to zero on this Bucks team,
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: and the Bucks of all these injuries, and you know this,
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: this is just a really nice spot to take Atlanta.
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: So I hate how much numbers moved, but it's still
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: under the key number of three. So I'm gonna take
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: the two and a half right now because I could
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: see this keep going up. It's just brutal bad luck
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: for this Bucks team, and I feel terrible every time
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: I talk about a team I like and I praise them,
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: it feels like all hell breaks loose.
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: And they die out.
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: So I literally bet them to be the one seed
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: last week at twenty two to one, and they're probably
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: fifty to one now to be the one seed NFC.
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: So I swear everyone out there, I'm not gonna talk
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: about any player on your team, mention your team nothing.
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: I will just strictly do week by a week. No
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: more future talk for me.
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: The key for Godwin, and they talked about this on
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: the broadcast last night, has been his yards after the catch,
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: leading the NFL receivers in yards after the catch and
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: no other Bucks player. He had three hundred and thirty
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: five at the end of the game last night. No
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: other Bucks player had more than two hundred. No tight
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: end has one hundred. So to your point about the
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: third downs, that's critical. We saw it a couple of
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: times last night.
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: It's such a big deal.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: That is that. The one scary thing and we need
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: to address this is the line has flipped. When the
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: line flips, it tends to favor the underdog. We're now
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: getting an underdog that is wounded at home. There is
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: sort of a you know, we're all, what's that.
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: On a short week though, on a short week.
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: And also I do think like there's there's a difference,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: and I wish we should we could do this, and
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: we can't line flip because of injury and line flip
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: because of money, right right, And I think I do
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: think there's a there's a distinction there with very real difference.
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: I'm so excited to talk about this next game. I
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: think it has big balls potential.
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: I listen man to say that, I'm proud of you.
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: It would be the massive understatement.
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: Tennessee at Detroit Detroit minus eleven. We've had two double
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: digit favorites through seven weeks. Don't forget the first few
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: weeks of the year. First two months, the ever spread
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: was like four points, which is the Titans. It's been
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: in a generation. Currently, three double digits in week eight,
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: we're going to talk about Tennessee Detroit. We also had Baltimore,
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: Kansas City at Cleveland. It's come down. We had Kansas
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: City at Las Vegas. We'll talk about that. We talked
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: about this Sunday night, like we're going to bet the
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: Lions here. It was at twelve and a half eleven
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: and a half eleven, So we know whise guys are
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: betting on Tennessee. But double digit favorites at home past
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: five years, fifty four percent. And we can keep preaching
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: on the Lions right now. But this is not an
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: offense that sort of plays down to its opponent. The
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: offensive line is just too dominant, and they're going against
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: a team whose pressure rate is bottom third in the league.
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: They've blown first half leads and three of their five
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: losses in the second half. I mentioned this at the top.
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: They're the other team that is giving up sixteen points
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: per game that grows to nineteen points per game, last
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: in the league. Like I fear that, I do not
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: fear that Tennessee will keep it close. I think, like
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: the Bills, the Lions are more inclined to run away
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: with it in the second half. Simon, we're gonna bet
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: the Lions minus eleven.
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: Really, you're going to guarantee this will be contest.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: I feel good about it right now.
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think we're in the same page ride like
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: the Lions. I said, I'm shocked this line wasn't fourteen.
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: I mean just they're all just humming in every way,
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: you know, betting this though that the only way we
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: lose is not Tennessee winning, it's Detroit beating themselves somehow. Right,
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: it's we finally get that bad golf game. I mean,
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: he's been the terminator of these last three four weeks.
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: Like he's just automatic killer every week, Like he doesn't miss,
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: makes the right read every time, always finds the open weapon.
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: And we talk coming the season, no team had them
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: better put together offense than this team, right, they just
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: nailed last year's drafts, getting Laporta and Gibbs on top
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: of you know what they already had. And this offense,
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: like it's just you're right, Like I'm trying to trying
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: not to scare myself off of it because this is
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: such a huge number.
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: But we talked about these bad teams.
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: Are just really bad right now, and I wish there
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: was some life I could take from Tennessee.
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: Like I went back and watched that film against the Bills.
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: We talk all the time, these bad teams just shoot
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: themselves on the foot, right, the dumb penalties like the turnovers,
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: the sloppiness on third downs, and then defensively, you're right
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: like they made a couple of business decisions against that
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: Bill team, and you could really tell in that second
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: half where it's like they kind of gave up once
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: they even when they got down ten or whatever it was,
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: it was just like they're totally checked out. So I'll
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: follow you on this one. I do love this Lion's team.
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: It's just, you know, it just irks me to take
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: a big favorite, So I got to kind of push
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: that aside and just know that this is a good
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: number and it probably should be closer to fourteen.
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: Dude, we hate taking big favorites, but we do think
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: the number should be much much higher, yeah, than eleven,
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: And it's come down and as much as we hate
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: doing it, that has been the side, not just this season,
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: but historically in the spot. You don't always take double
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: digit favorites. And we're going to talk about one later
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: on with Kansas City in Vegas, where we both agree
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: that we're not going to want to back Kansas City.
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: But this feels like a spot like it. This Lion's
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: team is great, and you know, we talked about this
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: on Sunday. Jared Goff was seventeen to one on Sunday
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: afternoon to win MVP. He's now eight to one. He
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: leads the league in completion percentage, he leads the league
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: in yards per attempt. He second in QB rating. He's
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: elite against pressure right now, which was the one Achilles heel.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: He has the second most twenty plus yard passes. He
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: has a four game stretch where he's completing eighty three
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: and a half percent of his passes, which is the
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: greatest four game stretch in history. And I know not
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: all this can last. I can't, but I think when
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: your offensive line is this good and you've got a
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: game plan that is so focused on being physical and
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: pulling up safeties to protect against the run, there's something
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: that is more than just luck and timing here. It's
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: like there's substance foundational.
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: It's fair.
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: Just like you just said, though, we've been riding this
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: train for three four weeks in a row now, so
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: we do have to hop.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: Off the only reason we're winning anything right now it's true,
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: and I think there's a difference between selling high and
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: still being ascendant, Like this stock is ascendent to me. Yeah,
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's time to sell Green Bay at Jacksonville. However,
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: packers are four and a half. Tricky, tricky, tricky, tricky.
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: Before I get I got a couple of calls about
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: this one.
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: Tell me because we talked about a Sunday. Tell me
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: because I'm very curious right now.
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: I'm missing something apparently, and that Jordan Love ain't right yet,
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: and there's something missing with this Green Bay team and
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: this is a letdown spot for them. And this Jaguars
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: team's not as bad as people perceive. They've had just
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: bad luck this year. YadA, YadA, YadA. I don't know
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: what to make of us because we're supposed to be
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: the jacks here. Oh yeah, but I'm just we've just
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: been burned. Like, honestly, this was going to be my
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: Simon says, but I found another game that Thank god,
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: I don't have to make it this one because it's just,
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: oh man, it's I'm having a hard time trying to
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: I don't mind betting this, I'm just having a tough
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: time trying to get their listeners to get on this
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: one with us, because you.
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: Know, not all the time.
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: Doesn't make sense that the numbers say this is the
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: right team to take in, these Jaguars team, and that
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: this is probably a good number, and that this GREENBA
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: Green Bay team has played a lot of just really
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: close games, right. They let teams hang around because their
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: defense hasn't really been as great as people perceived, and they've.
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: Been relying on turnovers and you know it's tough here.
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: What are you thinking?
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: I can't find the answer when we go through these.
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: You know you're supposed to do right, Yeah, yeah, I mean.
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: We have to bet Jacksonville, But like I want, I'm
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: trying really hard to think about what's making us lose
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: without overthaw.
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: But I want to bet the Packers honestly, just because
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: I do toolost couple of weeks.
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: Dude. I want to bet the Packers because they're the
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: better team, yea, with a better coach and a better quarterback.
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: And when we've been there flying from England.
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and they're not flying from England and we've been losing.
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: It's because we are getting so enamored with what we
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: are thinking is a point a point and a half
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: of value and believing that.
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: There's three and a half, you're geting to free point
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: here exactly.
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: And we believe there that there is something we're not
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: seeing that makes this team undervalued. And I don't know
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: what it is, and I know that the market, meaning professionals,
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: believe in the Jags. We've seen the number move from
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: five down to four and a half. The Packers have
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: beaten up on bad teams except for Houston and CJ.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: Shroud had his worst game ever, literally worst game ever
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: as an NFL quarterback in one plus seasons, through for
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: less than one hundred yards for the first time.
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: Because Jordan lovet turnovers, they stayed in the game exactly.
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: And like when we're losing, it's because we're betting bad
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: teams at what we think is a good neighbor who
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: number who can't overcome turnovers. And so this season, this
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: game fits the mold of the games that we should
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: bet the public road favorite and the Packer as chalky
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: as it gets.
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: It is.
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: But again we talked like this, I don't know this
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: team right now. They've struggled to stop the run in
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: Green Bay, and I do think that the Jaguars have
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: found something in Tank Bigsby, right, They've made the switch
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: at running back and he's been an absolute monster. Like
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: this guy runs like Marshaun Lynch. He runs so hard,
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: and that to me has been a difference for this
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: team these last couple of weeks. You know, the Jaguars
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: have looked better, if you could even say that. But
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: that's my fear here is it's like, am I falling
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: too much in love with them? Being up on a
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: bad Patriots team? Now they're about to come crash on
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: the Earth and you are a legit playoff team. Well, see, brother,
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: I'm telling you I got Usually I don't get calls
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: after our slaying that game. I had four different pros
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: calling me up and be like, don't take Green Bay
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: this week. And usually I'd be like, you know, on
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: their side, but I'm with you right now where it's
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: like public is king right now, like they're having a
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: nice run and it's like the books, they've had some
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: bad numbers and maybe I'm misreading this one. This is
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: another bad number by the book, but it is extremely tempting.
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: You're getting four and a half right now in Green Bay,
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: So yeah, this is definitely a game we're gonna have
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: to revisit on.
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: Thursday, so we'll get sharp calls about this. I'm sure
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: I'll give you one more trend that leans Jacksonville. So
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: all the public trends for this year, obviously that we've
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: mentioned are in favor of the Packers, the road favorites.
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: All that is in favor of the Packers. One trend
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: that is in favor of the Jags. Home dogs are
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: more than field goal off of a win of fourteen
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: plus points sixty three percent the past twenty years.
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: There we go, No, we know this is the spot
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: to take the Jaguars.
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: Like the numbers everything, it's like, but this, like you
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: just said, it's a wonky year. I mean, I can't
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: get over that one in sixteen stat It's like, fucking
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: ay man, it's making me rethink everything I do.
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: I know, how do you think I felt yesterday? It dude, yeah,
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: blue my mind. I'm like, this can't be right. So
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: then I did it again, like something's not right here this,
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: I did it again, double checked one in sixteen. It's insane.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: It is how many how many games we bet this year?
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: Forty games we put into the contest, thirty five games,
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: whatever it is seven times five. Seventeen of those are
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: the bets we would always make, and we've lost sixteen
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: of them.
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: Now they're killing us.
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: You know it's not killing me. Right now. I mentioned
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: to you at the top of the show that we
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: are coming to you live from our Tommy John Home studios.
• 36:55
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• 37:36
  Speaker 1: John dot com slash favorites. It's all right Indianapolis, at Houston,
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: we bet the Colts at six and a half. We
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: hit it on Sunday night. I'm leaning an exact decision here.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: So if you're if this is where you want to
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: go to, Simon says, okay, EXAC decision, Get Indianapolis Colts.
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: Good choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Are you
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: have your honors? Text to cut number? Executive decision.
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: It's a scary one. We're going to be sweating this.
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: It's going to be the end of the game. We're
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: going to need Anthony Richardson to do something that he
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: never does, which is be accurate or fling that miracle
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: fifty yard pass to Alec Pierce for a touchdown. C J.
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: Stroud has not looked right without Nico Collins. He went
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: out in Week five in that Buffalo game after he
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: scored a touchdown. The past two games have been on
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: the road, but c J. Stroud in one of those
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: games through for fewer than one hundred yards, worst game
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: of his career. His QB rating in those two games
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: is about forty five, no touchdowns, completion percentage dropped considerably
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: like unlike the Pats. To me, this fits the bill
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: of betting the underdog that is ugly. I think we've
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: got a really good coach in Shane Stichen, and I
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: also think we do have a dominant unit that favors
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: the Colts. Their offensive line, their run blocking is the
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: best in the NFL, and the Texans rush defense is
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: just not very good. And we might get Jonathan Taylor
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: back this week, so I feel a little bit better
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: about it. Home Division faves seven and eight this year
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: forty five percent since twenty fifteen. So this is one
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: of those we'd always bet that I actually feel okay about.
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: I want you to feel better than okay, So we'll
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: see if we get you there by Thursday.
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: But yeah, this is a game where I really need
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor to be back because that, to me is
• 39:53
  Speaker 3: a big deal. That's the thing we've seen used to
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: struggle with this year is the run. He's one of
• 39:57
  Speaker 3: the best running backs in football. We need him, like
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: we've seen that there is a difference offensive when he
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: is in there with Anthony Richardson, they can do that
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: read option like when you have to count for Richardson
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: running and Jonathan Taylor, that's a pretty potent one two punch.
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: Running the ball.
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: And you know, historically in his young career, we've seen
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: CJ do well against this Colts defense, but that's with
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: Nico Collins like Nico has been a killer of this
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: Colts defense. Him not being there, to me is the
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: biggest deal. Like he's the reason they've always won or
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: kept these games close for Houston in the last two years.
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: It's like that combo of CJ and him attacking deep.
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: It's been huge. It's not been the same since he's
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: been out right, like Tank Dell, Stefan Diggs, they don't
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: hit the same as Nico Collins. They don't get open
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: like he does, so which is crazy. I think just
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: two years ago that guy was you could have got
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: Nico Collins for a bag of chips. Like now we're
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: talking about him as one of the best deep threats
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: in all football. So this matchup, you're talking about us
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: just playing the number, and that's the definition of what
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: we're doing here, Like we're trusting the number.
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: You have to take this. This is same kind of
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: thing where the cold snow.
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: This is for their season and you know they they
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: dropped that first one, and like we joked about, we
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: know we got a little lucky, right like Richardson, Oh yeah,
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: he cleped completed less than like three percent of his
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: passes in that game. And it just somehow me and
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: Chad still covered that two and a half number, So
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: a little bit of rushing. Well, let here Chad spinning
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: the spinning the chamber again, hoping we get lucky with
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: this one again. But I do like the matchup for them.
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: We talk about and we've nailed this with CJ. Right,
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: you back him as a.
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: Dog he covered last week, and you fade him as
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: a favorite. I mean, he just has struggled as a favorite,
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: especially as a big favorite. So yeah, this is.
• 41:39
  Speaker 3: A tough one to swallow because we went the six
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: and a half. It was six and a half. The
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: pros came and they bet it down to the six.
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: I don't mind taking the six, but I could easily
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: see this game landing on six. It just feels like
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: this is gonna be that close of a number that
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: it could get there. So my mindset of it though,
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: is I could see it keep going down. That's why
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: I think you're a smart taking the summer now. I
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: could see this easily getting down to four and a
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: half by kickoff. It just feels like it's too inflated
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: right now, and it could move with the Jonathan Taylor
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: and number.
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: With Jonathan Taylor being cleared to play.
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, to me, this is this is where the coaching
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: comes into play. And we've loved betting Shane Steichen year
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: plus that he's been in the league. The culture five
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: and one against the spread this year. They grind these
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: games out, and he's really smart when it comes to
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: play calling. Even this past week. You know, you look
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: at that Dolphins game. They're patient, they stay in it,
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: they don't panic, they make play after play, they take
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: advantage of mistakes, like they got a winning record that
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: like they're not that far behind the Texans. Like if
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: they beat the Texans all of a sudden, like they
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: might be tied for the lead in the AFC South.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: So it's a it's an interesting matchup, interesting game, A
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: lot a lot of sort of narratives in this game.
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: Go cults the next one tougher Cleveland and Baltimore. I mean,
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: obviously there is just complete chaos in Cleveland. This game
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: has dropped considerably. I think it was about ten and
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: a half than ten, nine and a half now it's
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: nine at most books. It's actually the biggest pros Joe's
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: split on the board right now. How do you want
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: to play this? I have it as a pass by
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: the way, man.
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: I'm passive, but where you're supposed to take Cleveland here
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: at home? I mean, they can't tell me replacing Watson
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: makes this team a worse team. Like he was one
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: of the worst quarterbacks we've seen this season. And that's
• 43:36
  Speaker 3: just not by your eyes, that's epa per play all.
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: This is going to be correctly historically terrible, So worse.
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: Than worse than JaMarcus Russell.
• 43:47
  Speaker 3: So don't we get a bump, Like, don't we get
• 43:49
  Speaker 3: a bump from you know, hopefully jamis our guy, the
• 43:52
  Speaker 3: motivator of men, but Chad knows we've had a long
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: history of Betton Winston and you don't know what you're
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: gonna get, Like we could have a Winston day where
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: he's terrible, but I don't know. I like this match
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: for him against his secondary, Like this is a pretty
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: good match for him to be able to put the
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: ball down the field.
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: And we already talked about this.
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: Ravens team has struggled to close out teams despite them
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: being this incredible running team, and you know, they had
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: to have a bunch of little bounces go their way
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: last night for them to cover that number. Like I
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: still can't believe we didn't get that back door. I
• 44:23
  Speaker 3: thought for sure we were gonna get there. But the
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: same view here, You're right, like you know, the divisional
• 44:28
  Speaker 3: home dogs have not been hitting like we're used to.
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: I'm a sucker for him. This feels like an inflated
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: number ten and a half.
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: It would have been a no brainer. You're right, it's
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: down to nine in most books. I'm not gonna make
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: people take a bad number.
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: Here, Matt Mitchell, cue the music. The last thing I'll
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: say about this game, we are going to if we
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: bet the Browns go against the road faves the past
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: two years sixty one percent against the spread. It just
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: I know we want to bet it. Is it contest worthy?
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know. Here's a really interesting
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: game to me. Philadelphia at Cincinnati.
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this game.
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: Discussed it on Sunday night. It was at two. It's
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: moved up to two and a half. Actually got up
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: to three at some point Monday night into this morning.
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: I saw it this morning at three. Even though the
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: majority of the tickets are on the Eagles. I will
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: not be fooled by the Eagles win over the Giants.
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: I know that statistically the Eagles run game has a
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: massive advantage over the Bengals rush defense. But I do
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: think the Bengals passing offense has all of the edges
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: over the Eagles pass d and while the Eagle but
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: the Bengals defense isn't very good. They're actually good at
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: two things. They're good at defending the pass on play action,
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: and they're good at defending long ball, which is really
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: how the Eagles can win games, especially with Aj Brown back.
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: So to me, I'm back and Joe Burrow is a
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: short favorite.
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: It's fair I gotta read on this one. Bengals demir
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: just a bad team that's been lucky and fortunate in
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: their wins.
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: How many wins do they have this year?
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: Chad three, the two or three? Three?
• 46:21
  Speaker 3: And in those wins against these bad teams that they beat,
• 46:25
  Speaker 3: have you had any confidence in this team?
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: I have.
• 46:30
  Speaker 3: That's why it's like it's I'm just having a tough
• 46:31
  Speaker 3: time making this one of our five where it's like
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: I get where you're coming from. You're right, Like, I
• 46:36
  Speaker 3: like Fine hurts too on the road, especially as an underdog.
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: He's not performed well on the trends historically. It's a
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: nice spot to take them, but it's just a bad
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: Bengals team, and you know, I just have a lot
• 46:47
  Speaker 3: of questions right now about them, Like I still can't
• 46:49
  Speaker 3: believe we didn't cover last week. And that's what I'm
• 46:53
  Speaker 3: fearful of right now, is they're getting a flukey bump
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: here where at least the Eagles. You know, you can't
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: say he dominated that game against the Giants. You really
• 47:01
  Speaker 3: can't say that for that Bengals game, Like they just
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: they let teams hang around too much. So yeah, if
• 47:06
  Speaker 3: this was three, I'd probably end up taking the Eagles.
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: But at two and a half, two, I just don't
• 47:11
  Speaker 3: have a read on this one.
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: It's rare that you pass on a game.
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: I won't pass on.
• 47:16
  Speaker 3: I'll eventually get to a spot where I'll bet whatever
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: my model says. But right now, like you know, it
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: should be minus three, so I think I should take
• 47:23
  Speaker 3: the Bengals. It's just, man, they just have looked so bad.
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: It's crazy, like just defensively everything about them, Like you said,
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: you can run it on them, and that's what the
• 47:33
  Speaker 3: Eagles want to do. So I'm with you, though, It's
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: like I know, in.
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: The back of my mind I probably should take this
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: Bengals team here at a good number two and a half.
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: I like lou An Arumo. I think they're going to
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: turn it around. I think they've had injuries, They've brought
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: in new players who are getting adjusted to the system.
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: He'll he'll find his spots against the Egos. He'll dial
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: up the exact right blitz at the exact right time.
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: And I'm also betting, by the way, it's going to
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: be a close game. I do believe Evan McPherson from
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: sixty yards is a pretty good opportunity to cover a
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: two to two and a half point spread. That's fair
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: Buffalo with Seattle this one. Seattle's a three point dog
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: at home. I'm completely torn on this one. So if
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: you have strong opinions, fire away, because I got I
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: have no edge that I can see in the number,
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: Like it's to me, it's lined accurately.
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's another game again.
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: I was gonna make Simon says, but the DK metcalf news,
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: that's what's honestly scared me off. Like that's such a
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: big deal of taking him away from this offense.
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: But I like Seahawks.
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: I like plus three at home, and you know we
• 48:44
  Speaker 3: talked a little bit earlier today, Jef. I mean, and
• 48:46
  Speaker 3: you about Josh Allen, and you know, people asking why
• 48:49
  Speaker 3: he's not the main guy for MVP. He's lost the
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: good teams, like he lost to Houston, he lost to
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: this Ravens team, and he's beat up on bad teams.
• 48:57
  Speaker 3: Do we think Seattle he was leading the NFC West
• 49:01
  Speaker 3: right now? Are they a bad team? I don't think so,
• 49:03
  Speaker 3: but I don't know how.
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: Good they are.
• 49:05
  Speaker 3: That's the fear here. It's like they're kind of an
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: in between team where it's like we think they're all right,
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: but you don't really believe in them, Like we don't
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: really think they're gonna actually win this division. They're better
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: than the forty nine ers, but they could, like they
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: stay healthy and things keep breaking their way.
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: They're not that bad of a team.
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: So I'll take the three because I do think offensively
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: they can attack this Bill's defense. And you know, at
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: the end of the day, Josh Allen has to start
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: turning the ball over. This is fucking crazy at this point,
• 49:34
  Speaker 3: Like are we all going crazier?
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: I'm going crazy about it.
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: It's like this guy has just been total, totally different
• 49:40
  Speaker 3: this year, not forcing the ball in the red zone,
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: and I think we're obviously due for Hi to have
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: a couple of turnovers. I also think this is gonna
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: be one of the bigger public plays of the week.
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: I just can see the public coming and really heavy
• 49:51
  Speaker 3: on this Bills team after that massive win last week.
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: So be patient. Might be able to get us a
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: three and a half on this Seahawks number.
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: I'm looking to see what the betting percentages are right
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: now on this game. It looks like, yeah, we got
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: it's interesting fifty eight percent of the tickets, but eighty
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: six percent of the money, which tells you a little
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: bit that when there's that much the wise guys are
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: coming in. I'm Buffalo right now as well. Is what
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: that says to.
• 50:23
  Speaker 3: Me, Big Andrew Dedica. I mean, that is definitely a
• 50:27
  Speaker 3: big deal for that offense and what they want to do.
• 50:29
  Speaker 3: But it's honestly, do you really believe in this Bills team? Because,
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: like I just said, they've struggled against good teams, but
• 50:35
  Speaker 3: they've dominated bad teams.
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: Definitely an interesting matchup.
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: So where do you think of Seattle? That's really honestly,
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: New Orleans is visiting the Los Angeles Chargers gave one
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: away their seven and a half point favorites at home. Look,
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: this is a pro joe game in favor of the Saints.
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: The wise guys are betting the Saints here. I think
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: the key question is does anyone think the Chargers can
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: cut a seven point spread? Because the Saints they're a
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: train wreck?
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: You know? You know I love to read Bill Barnwell.
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: He did a column yesterday about the teams that are
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: performing worst in the NFL, whose situation is the worst
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: going forward? And you know, he talked about the Giants,
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: he talked about the Panthers, and he talked about a
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: couple other teams, the Titans. He also talked about the Saints.
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: His conclusion was that the Saints were actually in the
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: worst scenario between their cap space, between their performance, between
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: the pieces they have in house. It's hard to find
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: a lot to like about this team right now.
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: I know.
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: And the books were smart to make it this high
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: of a number, because it makes you tempted to take
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: the Saints team just because who are the Chargers to
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: get to this many points?
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: And it makes me think back that when they played
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: the Panthers, Remember that that was a huge spread and
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: they dominated them, so I'm not get.
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: Sucked into it.
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: I'll actually take their Chargers here. If there's a couple
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: of sevens out there, I just go grab the seven.
• 52:05
  Speaker 3: But I told you're gonna be super chocky. This is
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: an easy team for you. Just take their money line
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: and it's a desperate team like the Jets money line,
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: and put them together like there's a lot you can
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: do with that and try to avoid this spread number.
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: But for this show where we only pick the spread,
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna I'm gonna go with the Chargers here. It's
• 52:21
  Speaker 3: just I'm not gonna get sucked in by their temptation.
• 52:24
  Speaker 3: I think the Chargers defense, hopefully get Bosa back, there'll
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: be a difference maker. And then offensively, they had no
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: receivers in that game against the Cardinals, so hopefully maybe
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: get a couple more guys back on the receiving corps
• 52:35
  Speaker 3: and that's gonna be the difference.
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: Right. Like we've seen Herbert as much praised in Love,
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: we would want to get him. You can't go out
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: there with just guys off the street like he needs,
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: Like you know, Jalen Rager when he caught that ball,
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you saw that he fumbled out
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: of the back of the end zone. Yeah, it's just
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: like that's when you know you're down the badest of battle.
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: You got Jalen Rager in there making those kind of plays.
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it is tempting the Saints, So I'm
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: not gonna get sucked in. I'll take the Chargers here.
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: Jalen Rager the receiver drafted by the Eagles instead of
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson.
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: Thanks, Chad.
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: Don't forget. It's a classic. It's a classic clip in
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: the social medias. Is the Vikings draft room going crazy
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: when they realized the Eagles took Jalen Rager instead of
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson.
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: It's crazy. And Minnesota has been to a super Bowl
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: since then. Oh wait, that's the Eagles. Sorry, wow, Yeah,
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: I'm not better.
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: Jesus coming after me a little bit. All right, Chicago Bears,
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: there we go. You one and a half point favorites
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: against the Washington Commanders on the road.
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: And would you say Sunday night, Chad.
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: I said, on Sunday night.
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: There you go.
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: I said it on Sunday night. I was looking at
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: the numbers. We go over this on the Sunday show,
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: watch it in the app, watch it on YouTube. If
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: you're not this is what you missed. The Bears were
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: one and a half point underdogs on Sunday night. I
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: was so astonished by this and so distracted. I tried
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: betting it during the show, and it was off the
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: board at two of the three books here in Connecticut.
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: I got it at one and a half at one
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: of the books before it came off the board again
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: and then reopened with the Bears at two and a half.
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: Because of the Jade and Daniels news, right like, this
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: was supposed to be Caleb and Jayden and two quarterbacks
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: who are doing incredibly well as rookies one and two
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: in the draft. We don't know he's week to week.
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: It could be Marcus Mariota instead of Jade and Daniels.
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: That's why the numbers moved, Like should we be trying
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: to middle this right now?
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: I as gonna say, you definitely have that option.
• 54:48
  Speaker 3: I'm not gonna do anything yet with this because I'm
• 54:51
  Speaker 3: just hoping that this does get up to three and
• 54:53
  Speaker 3: then I'll hit try to hit the middle. But you're right,
• 54:56
  Speaker 3: like it's tempting already at two and a half. We
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: already talked about how key of a number two is.
• 55:01
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I told you I like the Bears just
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: because of their defense in this matchup. So even at
• 55:06
  Speaker 3: minus two and a half, if you missed the party,
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: I still don't think that's a bad number to grab
• 55:10
  Speaker 3: his sbarraste if it is Marcus Mariota. Like we talked
• 55:14
  Speaker 3: about all the regression that was coming for that that team,
• 55:17
  Speaker 3: and you know Washington where they were nine for nine
• 55:20
  Speaker 3: on fourth downs.
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: That's not sustainable.
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: They basically every time on third down that'd say it was,
• 55:28
  Speaker 3: you know, third and seven, he wouldn't just get the
• 55:31
  Speaker 3: first down Daniels, He'd get like twenty five to thirty
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: yards either passing or running the ball.
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: It was just so extreme. We knew it was gonna
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: come back down.
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: And you know, when Mariota came in, the Panthers already
• 55:42
  Speaker 3: giving up on that point, right they were down twenty
• 55:44
  Speaker 3: to nothing. He is just bad, Like there's a reason
• 55:49
  Speaker 3: he is a backup where uh, he makes the wrong reads,
• 55:52
  Speaker 3: he's inconsistent, he holds onto the ball for too long,
• 55:54
  Speaker 3: and his first thing, even though he's been in the
• 55:57
  Speaker 3: league this long, his first read is always to run
• 55:59
  Speaker 3: the ball. He just wants to run the ball. And
• 56:02
  Speaker 3: I do think you guys can QB spy him just
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: there's just ways. I do think the Bears tackle and
• 56:07
  Speaker 3: then offensively, this is a great matchup like Washington defense
• 56:11
  Speaker 3: by no, it means is good. Like the reason they've
• 56:13
  Speaker 3: been good this year is they've had big, big leads
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: where they can just rush the like rush the QB right,
• 56:18
  Speaker 3: That's been the key for them. It's not getting be
• 56:20
  Speaker 3: the same here for this Bears matchup. So it's stinks
• 56:23
  Speaker 3: coming in honestly, Like the look ahead, I was like, oh,
• 56:26
  Speaker 3: we'll get a nice number back in this Jayde Daniels
• 56:28
  Speaker 3: team against this overhype Bears team. Now Bears coming off
• 56:31
  Speaker 3: of buye into this game. To me, it's all Bears
• 56:34
  Speaker 3: right now. It's just a nice break for them. So
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: I would take the Bears now in minus two and
• 56:39
  Speaker 3: a half before this moves up to three. I can
• 56:40
  Speaker 3: just see this keep going up, especially once we get
• 56:43
  Speaker 3: official news Jayden Daniels out. It's like this, This feels
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: like by Sunday, this is a three and a half number.
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: Interesting. I did not see that coming.
• 56:52
  Speaker 3: I wanted to be on Washington but I just I'm
• 56:55
  Speaker 3: more I watch Mariota, especially when I watch old tape
• 56:57
  Speaker 3: of them from the past two years. I'm just like, man,
• 56:59
  Speaker 3: the there ain't like this guy.
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: I went to McVeigh and got fixed. This is no
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: Baker situation. There is no fixing this Mariota all right.
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: Well, based on that, here's what I know in the
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: past forty eight hours since the games ended on Sunday.
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: So less than that, I know that I've spent part
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: of my day reviewing our results for the per seven
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: for the first seven weeks and seeing the one area
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: where we are fifteen games below five hundred that is
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: basically the difference in our season. And I know now
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: that you've spent time watching past video of Marcus Mariota,
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: which says everything about how miserable our days have been
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: in the past twenty four I loved it to forty
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: eight hours. In addition to watching the box giveaway a
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: game and by the way, not changing our pick to
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals only because we knew as soon as we
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: did that we lose the Cardinals and win the Bucks.
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: So it's been a roller coaster of emotions. And I
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: agree with you, by the way, I loved it too,
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: as like physically painful and as much of a nightmare
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: as it was to see it. I love kind of
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: knowing the answer. So I'm with you. We're Gluttons. Carolina
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: at Denver, Carolina last and pressure rate last and sack right.
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: The worst defense in the NFL since two thousand and
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: seven when it comes to points allowed per play. Only
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: two defenses overall that have been worse in the past
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: five years twenty nineteen Falcons twenty twenty Raiders Denver.
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: Don waste time on it.
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: Okay, numbers I supposed to take.
• 58:43
  Speaker 3: The Panthers don't even fucking listen to me and Chad,
• 58:45
  Speaker 3: listen to the guy on twitterroom messages me every week.
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: Panthers are now one and six against the spread.
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: Let's get to it. Let's get to it. We haven't
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: discussed this. You've said you had a couple different options
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: for Simon says. I have a feeling this is going
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: to be it. It's in the city at Las Vegas.
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: The Raiders are at ten. It moved from nine and
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: a half and back to ten. Yeah, take it away.
• 59:10
  Speaker 3: So I going to remember that video of that Chiefs
• 59:12
  Speaker 3: team when the Bears traded up and passed on taking
• 59:17
  Speaker 3: my homes and took mitche or.
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: No, I won't talk about that video. I'm just messing
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: with No.
• 59:23
  Speaker 3: We're people hate it. We're we gotta take the Raiders here.
• 59:26
  Speaker 3: This is way too big of a number.
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: This is no.
• 59:30
  Speaker 3: I I got number one for if Simon says, just
• 59:32
  Speaker 3: because I do think Chad, this might keep going up,
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: Like I would not be shocked if this goes above
• 59:38
  Speaker 3: ten and a half, just because it's all Chiefs money.
• 59:41
  Speaker 3: Like you look in the app right now, it's just
• 59:43
  Speaker 3: so much cheaps money. And you know this is the
• 59:46
  Speaker 3: week of ten point teasers, right everyone's gonna do with
• 59:48
  Speaker 3: the lines. They're gonna do whatever Denver and then they'll
• 59:51
  Speaker 3: take the Chiefs and their three teams ten point teaser.
• 59:54
  Speaker 3: It's one of these guys is going to be the
• 59:56
  Speaker 3: break in the chain. And I we talked about. I
• 59:58
  Speaker 3: just think the Raiders here. It's a set up, prime
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 3: spot for an undefeated team and the Chiefs to lose
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 3: a game like this just feels like the type of
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 3: game they lose. Does it not make sense that this
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 3: terrible Raiders team two of their wins this year would
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 3: be against the Chiefs and the Ravens. That's just how
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 3: stupid football usually is, so matchup wise.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: Except this year. It's that stupid except this year. I know.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 3: But the Raiders are not the Patriots and the Titans, right,
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 3: we can agree on that that they do have some
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 3: talent and the coaching is a little bit better than.
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: All of that.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: Yes, but yes, but yeah, they're terrible. I look at
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: this and I see this as the exact kind of game.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: We have lost sixteen times already this year. It's a
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: number that we historically like. Yeah, it's the spot where
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: we think we have an advantage against the public.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: We do.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: We're betting on a combination, not a winning combination this year.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: Bad coaching, bad quarterback, without standout unit, like a team
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: that doesn't really.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: Have Rock Bowers is a standout unit.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to get to that. I'm going to
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: get to that. But like they we we were supposed
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: to like their receivers. They've lost DeVante Adams, jakoben Myers
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: is out. We were supposed to like their defensive line.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: Max Crosby, Christian Wilkins is out. Minshew didn't even play
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: the whole game last week. Four turnovers, including a fumble
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: return for a touchdown. They have ten turnovers in the
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: past three games, sixteen through the first seven. That's four
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: more than any other team in the NFL.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: More than there's a reason that numbers ten. What's that,
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: So there's a reason this number is ten.
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well exactly. But here's the problem. Nineteen percent of
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: their drives and in a turnover twenty eighth and third
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: down conversion rate, Like, this is a team that cannot
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: stay on the field and does not hold its possessions year,
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: so it's hard for them to score. And then like
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: they make wacky coaching decisions. Last week it worked out
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: in favor of betters. But Antonio Pierce goes for a
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: field goal twenty fifteen, you know, like he gets the
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: ball back, but no, stupid. Yeah, so there is one
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: salvation and so this is this. I'm glad you brought
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: it up. Brock Bauers is having an other worldly season,
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: like most catches by a rookie tight end since two
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: thousand and Look, the Chiefs cannot defend tight ends. Nope, Kittle, Gileskie,
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: Mike Leski for the Bengals, Isaiah likely. They all had
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: huge games one hundred yards.
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: It's only weakness. What's that It's the only weakness defensively, it's.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: The only weakness. But is it enough? Like, it's not
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: like the Chiefs haven't been covering even when giving up
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: huge yardage and Mahomes. While he's terrible at a number
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: this big, he's actually nine six and two the past
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: two seasons, so he's trending upward as a favorite of
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: three or more. Yeah.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 3: My view of it, though, is just even a bunch
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 3: of outside the numbers, just the spot, right, This is
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 3: such a letdown spot for this Chiefs team. After that
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 3: emotional forty nine ers on the road win, now they're
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 3: on the road again. Unfortunately, there is zero home field
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 3: advantage for Las Vegas. There will be more Chiefs fans.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 3: We all know that, right, That's just the way that
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 3: stadium is. It is like the out of town fans come,
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 3: they buy the home fans tickets and it's a party
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 3: for a week for them.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 3: So obviously that's already we're losing a point and a
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 3: half of home field. There's no home field here, so
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 3: I get you're coming from. It's just Mahomes and his turnovers.
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 3: I just it's hard for me to grasp them winning
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 3: back to back games by double digits. They're just not
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 3: this team we're used to of them just beating the
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 3: crap by These teams run away with it, Right, They're
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 3: able to have teams keep it close just because them
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 3: themselves are hard to stay insistent. Right, He's top three
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 3: receivers are out of this game. It's that has to matter,
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 3: Like that has to.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: Matter for this Chiefs team. So I'm with you, chat.
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 3: If the public hadn't done so well these past two
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 3: weeks and you hadn't given me that crazy number about
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 3: us being one sixteen on this exact pick, this would
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 3: be an absolute smash spot for you. But that's another
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 3: reason I'm not making it. Simon says, I'm getting a
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 3: little wiser and not just blatantly making these home divisional
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 3: dogs my favorite bet.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Well that, by the way, That's all I want
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: us to do is have that conversation, like if we're
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: going to do this, we might as well take it
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: seriously and like learn about how we do it for
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: this show, and like this this would have been a
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: no brainer EXEC decision or Simon says, or big balls,
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: yeah pick. I'm a feeling we're trying to be smarter
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: about it. Sunday and Night Football Dallas, San Francisco. San
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: Francisco is a four and a half point favorite.
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: The Cowboys are pro Football's glamourgie, dynamic, progressive, and spectacular.
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: Simon says, give me Dallas Cowboys four and ad gotta
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: do it. We do what Simon say pretty right now
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: has lost McCaffrey a yuk and I think Samuel is
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: in the hospital with what's he what's he have?
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: Do you know Deebo has pneumonia? That's the report?
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: Geez yeah. Looking at this matchup, I wanted to be
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: on the forty nine ers. This was going to be
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: a great bounce back spot, especially again to the Cowboys
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: team that we all agree. You know, they struggle against
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: the run. That's what this Horner's team wants to do.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 3: But now you've kind of made it that it's all
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 3: on prety shoulders and we've seen him now struggle with that,
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 3: right with not just with the turnovers, him not having
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 3: his guys there. It's a big deal. So to me,
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 3: this number has I moved enough. I think this gets
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 3: down to three three and a half by kickoff. It's
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 3: just a nice spot to back this Dallas team and
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 3: in a matchup that beforehand was bad for their defense.
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 3: Now I actually kind of like it, and you know,
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 3: we might actually get a couple of guys back for
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 3: them defensively. So just trying to be ahead of the
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 3: line movement here. We've already seen it open. What was
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 3: at six?
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: I think Chris gave it out.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: We saw it like Sunday night. Raybon Uh put in
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: the app that he got Chris. Raybond posted that he
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: got it at six and a half.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: That five and a half.
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: We only saw the five and a half, and I still.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 3: Don't think it's moved enough off all those injuries, Like
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 3: that's that's a big deal of this offense.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: That really is.
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 3: So yeah, Cowboys to keep it close here? How do
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 3: you not like Doak to keep these games close? Like
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 3: it's just we've seen it this season, even that Pittsburgh game,
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 3: like a game I counted him out.
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: He's able to keep teams in close matchups. So yeah,
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: I like this for this Dallas team, this matchup.
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: Wise, last game wen I foot the New York Giants
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: at Pittsburgh Steelers. I just want to remind I want
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: to give people heads up. We will have a very
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: special in season guest later this week, well known person.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: You have likely followed this person on social watched this
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: person on television, Listen to this person's very popular podcast
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: that happened to be a big fan of the New
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: York Giants. We're excited to have this person on this week.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: Normally this is when we have to fade the Steelers.
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: Yet the number has gone up, right, You've got a
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: team like the Giants, blowout win, blowout loss playing a
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: team like the Steelers, and a blowout win sixty percent
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: against the spread the past twenty years, Tomlin as a
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: favorite forty seven percent against the spread as a favorite,
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: I don't.
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: Want to hear about the labor pays man. Deliver the
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: damn baby.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: The reason I didn't like the Giants last week is
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: because their offensive line is terrible, and you got Daniel Jones,
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: And now you've got to ask yourself, he's got a
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: twenty three million dollar injury guarantee for next year. At
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: some point, does Dayball Russell Wilson in this guy and
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: sit him down because he can't keep him healthy and
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: they're gonna have to pay him next year if he
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: gets hurt. So like I don't want to bet this game,
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: and I don't want this in the contest. We're coming
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: down on Monday night and I'm like, so antsy At
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: seven point thirty, I'm sitting on my couch on TikTok
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: for an hour waiting for the freaking game to kick off.
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I think could probably put in the chat.
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 3: I don't think Daniel Jones has ever won a Night Game,
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 3: or maybe he's won one, but I just in my
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 3: recent memory, I can't remember him winning. So he's won
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 3: one Night Game in his entire career.
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: So he's just bad. I mean that that team is
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: just bad.
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 3: You're right, like defensively, this is a good matchup for
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh and this is the number that has steamed up.
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: I think it was three and a half. Now it's
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: up to six and a half. What's gonna stop it.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 3: I don't know if any professionals will come in yet
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 3: and take it, but I could see it keep going
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 3: up some with you, there's other dogs that I like
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 3: more than this Giants team, but man, it's it is
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 3: a nice spot for them with the number because it's
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 3: probably going to get up to seven.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: At that point. I'll be tempted to take it, but
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: now I won't make this one.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: Of our five great spot. We will not put this
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: in the contest because they would have to get to
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: seven and a half. I think for us to do that,
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: it's not going to get there, all right, Exec Decision
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: Colts plus six. Simon says Dallas plus four and a half.
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: We got a nice round number of eight or nine
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: games that we want to review on Thursday. See what
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: the guys have to say. As far as the sharp calls,
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: I'm excited to dig in a little bit more, narrow
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: it down, have our super special guest on the Thursday show.
• 1:09:28
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  Speaker 1: and the supply. Simon and I are back with our
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