Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / PGA First Look | May 27, 2024 | RBC Canadian Open DraftKings DFS Pricing and Process

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PGA First Look | May 27, 2024 | RBC Canadian Open DraftKings DFS Pricing and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:05
The system's going clear the lift. What's up everyone? Tyler Tamberline here aka
0:38
Totag and Tambo back for another edition of the PGA Show here on the ship
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at Nation YouTube Station. We got the first look as usual. Got a
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special guest today, bringing my guy Alex Blickell from FTN back here with me.
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I'll bring him in here in a minute. But lots to talk about
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today, Lots to get to a little bit somber off the top. We'll
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get into the good stuff. We'll break it all down. It's the Canadian
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Open. I'm excited. I'll hit on some of the chat I see later.
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There's a little funny story in there. Actually had a couple of people
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reach out today. I'll talk more on that in a minute. But before
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we get into it, I want to say a happy Memorial Day to everybody
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out there. Thank you to all those who serve, who have served,
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who support someone who does that. Alex, I'll bring you in in Memorial
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Day here and then we'll get into some stuff and break it all down this
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week for the RBC Canadian Open. How you do, my friend? So
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it very well? Yeah, Happy Memorial Day to everybody. I will say
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I think the tribute during the round yesterday, the helicopters flying over Memorial Day
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and having that dual meeting with the moment of silence for Grayson. That was
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a pretty beautiful moment. Yeah, definitely, I'd love to see that.
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A lot of great emotion poured out from a lot of the golfers out there.
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A guy Rinn has it up there, you know, got to we'd
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be remiss if we didn't just talk about this quickly off top. I know
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you have a personal story you can share, and we'll talk on that in
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a second, but just want to say I did post it out there yesterday.
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Obviously very sad news in the golf world this week. People playing DFS
1:56
golf and betting golf and whatever know a lot more about Grayson Murray than the
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general public. But one thing I will say, just you know, and
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then I'll kick it to you on it, just the setup of like I
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it's super sad. Everyone knows this, you know some of his history,
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the backstory, all of that. But I think one thing gets said a
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lot. Myself included even said it, and it's true and meaningful and everything,
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but I think there's a part that's missing. So I did want to
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touch on that just off the top, just because you know, you know,
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say, you never know what's going on with somebody out there, and
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that's in this case, people had a bit of a clue. Obviously Grace
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had mentioned things in the past with mental health. But I do just want
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to say, as obvious as that is, you know, whether it's a
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loved one, a friend, somebody close myself, whoever, reach out to
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anyone. It's you know, a good friend said this, it's not okay
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to not be okay, So reach out if you need somebody. But I
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will say that the second part two, that is that doesn't get talked about
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enough, in my opinion, is that you never know when something can change
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on a dime. Like in this economy, in this world, you could
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someone can lose a loved one, have a relationship go awry, you know,
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lose a job, Debts, finances, things can pile up in a
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hurry, and that can come out of nowhere. So it's not just someone
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you're not sure of what they're going through and how it's going. Somebody that
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you think is fine and seems fine and has always been fine can also change
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on the dime. So always be kind to one another, reach out to
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people as you can always say good things and just be there and support people.
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Man, be a good person. That's something you can control. Alex.
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I'll kick it over to you. Any thoughts you have on it,
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man, and just you know, I know you've mentioned you played with Grayson
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before, So let you talk on it for a minute, man, before
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we get into the show. Yeah. To be honest, like, I
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was thinking about whether we wanted to even cover anything with Grayson on the prov
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Pro Show, and then I saw how much our subscribers over at FTN in
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the PGA chat just seem to benefit from talking through this. Nobody knows how
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to process this kind of thing, right, and so once I saw that,
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it's like, Okay, yeah, we're definitely gonna cover it. Justin
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actually knew Grayson pretty well. I didn't know him. I played in events
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with him. I will say, like, I want to save most of
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the stories for the prov Pro Show, but what I will say is my
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memories of Grayson will will not be what I saw on TV. It'll be
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the first time I saw him warming up on the range. I didn't know
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who it was. I didn't know. Wow, that's Grayson Murray, He's
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going to be on tour in ten years. I just knew, who is
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this dude striping these long irons, just dead straight, towering ballflight, making
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a different sound and everybody else. It was like my second or third event
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as a pro at the time, so it was pretty intimidating to see.
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And then in the last USO con sectional qualifier that I played, Grayson Murray
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was the medalist and so it kind of felt, you know, full circle
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for me. Seeing him at the top of that leaderboard that I was actually
4:36
playing in was really cool because he was the guy that I saw eight years
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ago or whatever warming up and just thought like that dude seems a lot better
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than I am. I don't know what to do with this information. But
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then also like being able to see him win this year was really cool as
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well. So, man, it's tragic, but if there is a silver
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lining, at least he was able to turn his life around in the last
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few years the way he had, and he made like an enormous positive impact
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on people in the last few years, so at the very least at least
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seems able to do that. Yeah, thoughts some prayers out with Grayson Murray
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obviously wanted to cover that just a little bit off the top, said,
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a lot of people in our golf world talking about it, but I think
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you know pros, people that are close to him, Peter Malnatty's story and
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the tears that he shed about it, playing that last round with him after
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he withdrew after lave he missed like a four foot and a six footer,
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got himself out of contention on the cut line, skipped the last two holes.
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Malnaught. He had apparently told people, you know, keep an eye
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on him, just can you go check on him? And then sure enough
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he ends up taking his own life. Like say, tragic situation. Many
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have spoke on it, but move on to this week. Just wanted to
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say that, and obviously he thoughts out with him his family. But back
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to the golf for this week. We've got the RBC Canadian Open. Had
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a pretty big week over at ship in Nation. Was a lot of fun
5:46
there. But I want to hit on this one first because everybody asked me
5:48
and they're talking about the Tambo Open this week. It's like if somebody lives
5:54
in Boston and there's a tournament this week in Kentucky and people like, Hey,
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you going to the tournament Man two, it's in the USA. It's
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like, yes, it's the Canadian Open. Check out a map. People
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like it's a big country. So it's not. I will not be at
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the event this week. It's a two and a half hour flight and then
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a you know, probably hour and a half drive or something to get to
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it, So I will not be there, but still excited for it.
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We obviously love this event. The last couple of years have actually been overshadowed
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a little bit. Right we had the launch of Live. We had the
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piff agreement deal thing last year where they were talking about that. So the
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last couple of years there's been these big meetings and sort of things taking away
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from this event. So certainly excited for it this year. Most excited because
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also great day for me, Alex, great day for members over at ship
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a Nation. But you know, I've been trying it so hard to get
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back into this thing. This is just part of that grind that goes with
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anything like this in life. But shut out to our guy Lee Aldrich,
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he said, this is just a quick note from our discord. He came
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out on Monday and said, good day all won't. You won't notice this
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much, but basically I'll just get through it. Quickly said. You know,
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I'm evolving the course fit rankings to make them stronger and more at thinking
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of adding some new ingredients. We always joke about it's the Secret Sauce and
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the you know, Colonel Sanders with his special spices, and so he said.
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He says, this week, I've stumbled upon what I believe to be
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the best improvement yet. I'm very excited to see how this new herb improves
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the Secret Sauce. And I actually went back to him in the chat and
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said, hmm, I love that you're doing this. I'm a little interested,
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but the thing's been dialed in already. You guys have GPP scores over
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at FTN. This has kind of been our sort of thing that way over
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at chip A Nation. I said, uh, we'll see how it goes.
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Well. Sure enough, it was all my best course fit lineups that
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ended up taking down these tickets. I ended up getting three, almost five.
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I bubbled the fifth seat, I came in sixth in the top five,
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got a seat. I came in third as well, so I got
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one in that one and then in another one I came second where it was
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winner take basically winner take all, so almost five, but I will be
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happy with three. Built this line up pretty much right off those course fit
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rankings. Davis Riley of course number one, he said, ak Sha Batilla
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number one for his win. He had Taylor Pendrith number two for his win.
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Throughout the swing season there was a bunch of events where we had it,
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so, you know, just a great week. Lots of members came
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out and got the job done too, Lots of winning tickets. I seen
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eighteen dollars into sixty three hundred on a Riley ticket. I'm sure you guys
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saw lots as well. How was your week, man, what was your
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thoughts on the event? And then we'll hop in and start discussing RBC Canadian
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Open. It's funny we have so many like overlapping subscribers now who are both
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at ship AT and FTN, so we were actually talking about that. That
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Riley call from Lee that was that was pretty cool on his part. We
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had a lot of success this week as well. Shout out to one of
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our subscribers, Hamhock. He got himself a Fantasy Golf World Championship seat as
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well. I had a big Round four made about you know, four thousand
8:41
dollars want a ticket for I think a best ball contest. So my NFL
8:45
Bestball season apparently is underway, nuts because of a Round four showdown. But
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yeah, it's been it's been an awesome season. We're having a lot of
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fun. Yeah, saw the crossover logos too. We love to see that.
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We got a lot of crossover. We have a partnership as well,
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So just awesome to be with you guys and just see some of that member
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over. I got to say this, we always shout out the first guy
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in to the chat FIRS guy or girl. We're trying to up the you
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know what's the joke around there with laws the female viewership. We're trying to
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get that up. But shout out to Jordan first In today with the triple
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rocket Ship Express. I will say this, speaking of first In, he
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actually won the first FGWC seat of the season. He won it in the
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five dollars to kick off the year, so he's got to be excited.
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He's waited all year to get all season to get to this point. I
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had to wait till the last minute to get mine and others and shout out
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the Hamhawk. Like you said, I actually got to meet him. It
9:31
was a third or I think it was a third place maybe a fifth place
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finish a couple of years ago in Memphis at the Fantasy Golf World Championship.
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So good for him, and obviously since then he's won the million Maker with
9:39
NASCAR. Just an awesome, awesome dude, So congrats to him. Nice
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to see again. Lots of seats flying around on the last weekend as everybody's
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trying to get in seeing if I just sign anything else they shut out to
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Sean said the course fit rankings continue to print. This will be out shortly.
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I got my rep is still on vacation, but he's still handling these
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things for me, so we will have the Ship Nation Lister League out here
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shortly. I'll post that out on my x account when we do. Congrats
10:03
to Nick took down a heavy irons. The forty seven, forty seven seven
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and forty seven dollars buy in coming up for the Memorial is an awesome tournament,
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right. It's two hundred and thirty something people, I believe, and
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it's like the best payout structure you'll find outside and your million Maker but with
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a better payout structure and not a million up top, So definitely love to
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see that. So just lots of good stuff going on heading into this week.
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Now, Alex, we have a bit of a new it's a renovations
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to the course. We haven't seen it since twenty nineteen. I know you
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had some stuff there from before. Maybe, well you're going through just what
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you know about this course, or maybe what you know and expect this week
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from this course. I'll pull up our guy e Pac Golf. I just
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want to show off something that he put out here today on X But go
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ahead, you can start it off just anything you do know about the course
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from past president or what you're expecting this week coming up. Yeah, I
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can tell you that our course fit model from twenty nineteen only was huge on
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around the green play. Basically short game was by far the most predictive aspect
11:03
of the game is what translated the most to success. And you and I
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talked about it a little bit like you don't expect that sort of thing on
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a birdie course twenty two to under one. Now Rory won it twenty to
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one and running away from everybody. Yeah, but basically you know you think
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of around the greenplays as what's needed when it's difficult and guys need it to
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save par But then there are events like Capalua, like Craig Ranch where short
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game actually ends up being really predictive in terms of who's gonna make birdies on
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those short par fours on the par fives, things of that nature. So
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it seems like we've got one of those again this year. Yeah, I
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think that's gonna be the case. I mean, we'll look at it here
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in a second. I'm not gonna go through the whole thing. I want
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you guys to check it out, though, but shout out friend Eric Patterson
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e pat golf on x go follow him Canadian dude, great guy, says
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enjoy sick. Here here, here's a whole why hole look. Using GPS
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screenshots to show the pre renovation and the post. I mean, I'm gonna
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have to check this out tonight. I'll be honest, I'm not getting to
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this one lately. I won't post the you know, thanks for coming out,
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sorry, but I'm not reading all that shit. But this is gonna
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be good stuff. I just need the time to get to it. I
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haven't got to yet, but I do always like to skip ahead, as
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most do with these threads, So just to note at the bottom, I
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thought this was really interesting. He put just his favorite concourses Oakdale, Saint
12:16
George's, TBC, River, Highland Sedgefield. You gave a couple more ideas
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as well that I think will still hold true, because when you go to
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his first key takeaways point, it says Part three's are by far the toughest
12:28
holes in the course. The changes are fantastic, but more for member play
12:31
than to test the PGA Tour pros, and he thinks the twenty nineteen data
12:35
will still hold that's in his opinion. Can certainly bombit as long and straight
12:39
plays anywhere, but short hitters have a chance to contend. Shipping around these
12:43
small greens will be trickier this year then in twenty nineteen, which would make
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it that much more important, right, being able to have that skill set
12:48
in the bag. You can talk more on that, Alex, and then
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most of the trouble off the tee is around two ninety to three hundred,
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So if you've got that carry distance of three hundred plus Roy McElroy and many
12:58
other in this field, you can talk about that too. Anything here that
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you see just from his key takeaways that would stand out to you. And
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I think the around the green stuff just hits even even harder at this point.
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Yeah, I really liked that last one, the note that most of
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the troubles to ninety three hundred because we don't see a ton of signal here
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on driving distance. Now, both distance and accuracy were actually slightly less predictive
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than usual back in twenty nineteen. But remember that's an un average thing.
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So you can still get those like tier breaks where you might be longer than
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most. But if you can't carry it three hundred plus, it doesn't really
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help you. But if you can carry it three twenty, like Rory,
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now all of a sudden you get that full benefit. So it can be
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true that that extra distance is super helpful. Yeah, and we'll talk on
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that and we get to the tiers in a minute. But I do think
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I'm gonna have another conversation piece and we get to Rory and I had it
13:52
last week about Scotty. You remember, Scotty has to win to be up
13:54
top. They say, I know what people will still get on me about.
13:56
Oh but he came t two. Go look at the scoring and math.
14:00
Scotty could have came tenth and would have still scored like ninety one points.
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It's just a separation of those thirteen points or whatever from one oh four
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down to that or one o three down to ninety he still would have crushed.
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It's not how it works. It's a different type of game. You
14:13
have to understand it from that level. I think everyone knows it, but
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it's gonna be similar conversation when we get to Rory this week. Real quick,
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I'll just share this just a bunch of those that had big weeks that
14:22
we did post out or see golf and goof put out here. Big week
14:24
thirty three doesn't matter your bank roll, right And like you said, whether
14:28
it's shivin Nation, FTN, combining the two of them together, whatever you
14:31
might do, we're not us versus the world. You can get other access,
14:35
other data, sites, other whatever you want to use. It's just
14:37
to show it off. We'll note we had a huge NASCAR week as well,
14:41
which is nice because I know other sites they do charge additional for just
14:43
Nascar only packages. We include it with our all access membership and rum Runners
14:48
one over twenty k off of eighty bucks founding family members shut up to Chad
14:52
goes By Tavary zero one. He had the six thousand dollars FRWCC and then
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one four k in cash as well, so a big week for him.
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Scooter McGavin was that eighteen to sixty three hundred in there, one hundred You
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know you look here round four two grand you said you won almost four grand,
15:11
Alex, big week for you. Chris had his first ever GPP takedown
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shifts six k in the Birdie, so love to see that. Just lots
15:18
of good stuff going on over at the Nation. Skip the heavy marketing stuff
15:22
today. But if you guys do want to get in, it's very simple,
15:24
go to the site, go to join the Nation. I think right
15:26
now the best thing to do is just get in on the PGA action like
15:31
you get in now, having a lot of great success in those streets,
15:33
and then if you want to upgrade, you can always pro rate and get
15:37
it changed later. You don't lose anything on that. So thirty nine dollars
15:39
gets you in. It gets you everything you see here, the whole breakdown
15:43
for showdown, all the stuff. The stone another great tool that we have
15:46
that's not out there that you won't see it every other site, the course
15:50
fit rankings that we already talked about that had a huge week, and then
15:52
you can get it on the action. That way, you'll get this event,
15:56
the Memorial, the US Open. Like now is a really good time
16:00
to join. This works out to just over a dollar a day. You
16:02
want about five dollars per event, or around twenty four bucks a month,
16:06
less than a dollar a day. Just join the annual get in and do
16:08
that now, and then if you want all access, just let me know
16:11
or get in there, but definitely make sure you get into the discord.
16:14
All right, let's get to it, Alex. Here, let's go to
16:17
the pricing. The only thing I know is Rory up top because I saw
16:21
that already and then I started seeing other names. But give me your take
16:23
on this real quick, because the other thing that I always just quickly cheat
16:27
to is that it is there. Is there a five K ranger, isn't
16:30
there? I think that's important at this point of the season. We're not
16:33
gonna go, you know, see why all the names are there, But
16:34
just to pull it up quickly and say this was the take again last week?
16:37
Like I said last week, Scotty was the wrong price still, because
16:41
well there was the gap of the other guys, and I get that it
16:45
was gonna be thirty five to forty percent end up being even higher, so
16:48
I understand that too. But the challenge was the guys behind him were not
16:52
certified killers. You could easily fit two of them and still get away with
16:56
it if you thought they were certified killers, that we're gonna climb up the
16:59
board, and he didn't have to win. There was just so many of
17:02
those mid tier guys that could have found their way to the top of the
17:03
leaderboard that still would have required you to spend salary or likely people do spend
17:08
salary where Scotty would have still fit in. And when you add the five
17:11
k range, it allows DraftKings just to throw everybody down there that used to
17:17
be in the six k range, which therefore boosts the value of the six
17:22
k range. And mind you, a fifty eight hundred dollars winner with Davis
17:26
Riley don't expect that every week. But still just showed it. Again.
17:29
Like I said, Scotty could have came tenth and still would have put up
17:30
over ninety points with two bogie free rounds. A bunch of birdies not many
17:36
Bogeyes, I mean Sunday was terrible for him and it cost me some too,
17:38
but still great week. Just saying like it was a bad week for
17:41
Scotty to come any still comes t too. It's just insanity. So give
17:45
me your thoughts on that and then how it applies when we talk about this
17:48
ten point one K and up range from Lowry to Roy McElroy at twelve one.
17:55
Yeah, I'd almost go as far as to say that we've reached a
17:57
point at least with Scotty's price each week where the decision of whether or not
18:02
to play Scotty is this so much about who is in the five and six
18:04
K range as it is about how well you think Scotty's going to do.
18:07
Because I didn't play Scotty this past week, even though we had him project,
18:14
I think it was like a sixty three percent chance of a top five,
18:15
which is just completely obsurd, thirty four percent chance to win. I
18:19
didn't play it because I didn't like the cheap options. But I don't think
18:22
Rory is quite that high where the decision of whether or not to play Rory
18:27
depends on who's available in the five to six K range, but I will
18:30
say there are a bunch of names here that I do think are really intriguing.
18:34
I mean, Thigala has been my guy, like every single week that
18:37
he tease it up ten to five, Adam Scott nine thousand, Keith Mitchell
18:41
eighty seven to other guys that just played this past week. Mitchell's Sunday really
18:47
killed me, but other than that he was great, and Adam Scott played
18:51
an awesome, awesome week. So lots of ways I think you can approach
18:55
the top of this board this week. And we've seen the RBC Canadant open
18:57
other courses, mind you, but just have some great events where it is
19:02
really a cream rises to the top. It is these guys at the top
19:04
that you see do it. So you could see even that year Rory won
19:08
recently, what was it that year with Justin Thomas Fenow Lowry, All those
19:15
guys were up top. It was an awesome finish and I think Rory ended
19:17
up taking out JT. Fenw fell back a little bit, et cetera,
19:19
et cetera, but there was a lot of guys up there, and I
19:22
believe like that's the same type of scenario anybody could have got that win from
19:26
Rory because the names were capable of doing so, and here maybe we see
19:30
the same. I love that take you had though, and the way you
19:33
worded it of it's not about what you actually think Scotty's going to do.
19:36
I mean, right now, we think he's gonna win every tournament and try
19:38
and fade this guy for whatever reason. But the point would be it also
19:41
is more about what makes him work and how many scenarios would be there that
19:45
even if he didn't come top five, could he still end up being in
19:49
the mix. And that's what I saw last week. And then he ends
19:52
up having a pretty bad Scottie week, but still good enough to be T
19:56
two. That just tells you everything you need to know. So let's talk
19:59
about Rory. Here, Rory down to Lowry and then what do you think
20:03
the Galla puts it? Do you think he carries it off the tee?
20:06
He puts it out there, doesn't he? Yeah? I want to say
20:10
he's close to three hundred. It's weird with him because he goes to this
20:15
like stinger type drive so often that if you just look at his carry numbers,
20:19
you're not going to see how far he can carry the ball. Because
20:22
if he needs to add off to it and carry it, he can.
20:25
So I always kind of default the ball speed as the best indicator, and
20:30
he's got very solid ball speed. Yeah, sometimes he's carrying it three hundred
20:34
this way, so it doesn't actually yeah, and they measure it out this
20:37
way, you're like, oh, it's actually two sixty, but it's three
20:40
hundred that way. Because he can definitely be a little bit wid like you'll
20:44
off the t have some issues, but I think in general, you know,
20:45
he's a good discount here from Rory. So any thoughts on Fleetwood,
20:49
Lowry, more on Thigala, and then just overall thoughts on Rory here at
20:53
twelve to one obviously suits the course quite well, won it back in twenty
20:57
nineteen. Doesn't sound like the changes will affect him at least. So how
21:02
do you think, you know, on a first look show, you think
21:03
about handling a guy like Rory, and do you think his ownership could exceed
21:08
Scotty's from last week where it just becomes that same thing again and people just
21:11
roll it out there. I'd be shocked if it does. We have seen
21:15
Rory as like the huge, huge chalk already this year at PGA National,
21:22
So it's not like you can't happen. But man, I think everybody knows
21:25
that Scotty's in his own tier right now, and particularly from a floor perspective,
21:30
right like Rory's going to have some events where you really are kind of
21:33
disappointed with him. You just mentioned it, like Scotty had a down week
21:40
this past week, and he still finishes tea too, So I don't think
21:42
we're going to see Scotty type ownership on Rory, but it could get up
21:45
there. Yeah, I agree. So any thoughts on Lowry Fleetwood quick?
21:48
I know we talked about the top two guys. Anything else you want to
21:51
add. Yeah, when I look at Thigala, Fleetwood and Lowry, I
21:55
think only one of them has the win equity and the upside to really challenge
22:00
Rory up there. So if I'm paying ten thousand dollars, it's either Figala
22:06
or Rory. Yeah, I think the one thing people will look at.
22:08
Maybe, you know, again, we'll see by the end of the week
22:11
how things come around. But I think Lowry finished second right to back Roy
22:15
back in twenty nineteen, so maybe that's a thought that people have, But
22:19
I definitely agree with you. On everything else up top. So let's move
22:22
on, let's go to this nine K range. We've got what do we
22:26
got here? We got Norrin down to Adam Scott, and you mentioned Adam
22:30
Scott. I know he's out there grinding right now. Right he's got to
22:33
get back I think to the top sixty. I think I saw everything on
22:37
it there last week they were mentioning about. So he's out there trying to
22:40
do his thing. But what do you think in hearing this nine K range?
22:41
She ended up finishing twelve last week, But he's putting in the work
22:45
right now to try and get his ranking back to where it needs to be.
22:48
Yeah, it seems to me like both the nine K and the eight
22:52
K ranges are kind of full of guys who are overpriced. So finding the
22:56
guys who are just the right price, then you also have to hope that
23:00
they end up being under owned too. Like Adam Scott, Keith Mitchell,
23:03
I think those guys I mentioned before are probably the most likely that I would
23:07
play in this range. It seems like Cam Young, Corey Connors Burns.
23:11
I don't know why Mav McNeely is ninety two hundred. He he'll probably be
23:15
lower owned. But all these guys I think are either overpriced or they have
23:22
a very good chance of being over owned. So you know, we mentioned
23:26
like the fact that sometimes the decision for Scotty isn't about whether or not you
23:30
think Scotty's going to do well, it's about who's available down below. It
23:32
can also be about how great are the plays in these eight to nine K
23:36
ranges, Because if I don't want to play anyone in this range, okay,
23:38
now much more likely to go up to play Rory. Yeah. I
23:41
think that's another great point. Just it's not even just the top and the
23:45
bottom, it's what's in the middle. And this is sort of the meat
23:48
and potatoes of it, is this ninety nine down to eight K range where
23:51
we've got fourteen guys here and it's hard to you know, besides the guys
23:55
you always see, like you know, Corey Connors, Aaron Rye, like
23:57
we can talk about them. They always pop it up the mix and always
24:00
get some ownership. But for the most part, you're not going to see
24:03
them go out and win a lot of tournaments or anything like that, right,
24:07
You're just counting on them to come through as a value play. But
24:08
now when they're priced eighty five hundred and above, they're above your average.
24:12
You know, some of these guys into the Corey Goddard ninety five hundred McNeely
24:17
ninety two hundred Great Sunday Round, but coming off a seventy seven hundred dollars
24:19
price tag to immediately see ninety two hundred, it's quite the shock, so
24:25
interesting range here. Anybody just you know a or is there a couple guys
24:29
that stand out to you that you'd see early on that you would think about
24:32
if it wasn't like Macroroy, th Igala, those guys up top, anybody
24:36
in this NYE kid that stands out heavy. I will always mention the fact
24:42
that Cam Young is amongst the guys who's most likely to outproduce his actual leaderble
24:48
position with his DraftKings points, just because of the amount of parties and eagles
24:51
he makes. Now, he hasn't been quite as good in that department this
24:53
year as he's been in past seasons, but that still makes him a bit
24:59
of an intriguing op any time he's team it up, especially if he ends
25:02
up being on the lower own side. Yeah, and it's every tournament's different,
25:06
but just you can see here some of these like seventy point performances are
25:08
with really bad results. Right. It's because you're mixing in eagles, there's
25:11
streaks, there's more birdies than others, things like that, and people do.
25:15
That's so I hinted at that earlier, like you really got to remember
25:18
the game that we're playing. It's a scoring game. Fantasy points matter.
25:21
So even with Scotty, it was like two Spike Browns and one was sixty
25:25
seven. The sixty three mattered the most. But that's why, like I
25:27
said, even if people say, yeah, but he did come T.
25:30
Two, it's like he almost won. Sure, that is the twenty points
25:33
built in for a second place, but I think it's still seven points for
25:37
tenth. So it's like you could have docked him thirteen. He still would
25:41
have had ninety one and just crushed. Considering all the guys around, like
25:44
Sung Jim came T. Nine last week with like seventy points. It's this
25:48
guy would have been tenth and still had ninety one if you just take that
25:52
off the top. The Wells Fargo was a fantastic example of that. With
25:56
Cam he made twenty birdies. He made twenty one birdies. And eagles combined.
26:03
So Rory won by a million and made one more birdier eagle than than
26:10
Cam because Cam had five doubles, So five doubles or worse. So that's
26:15
just the difference. But scoring wise, that means that when it Cam finished
26:18
thirty fourth, so he was probably like between fifteenth and twentieth and DraftKings points
26:22
there. Yeah, he's he really did score well. I mean he had
26:26
two more birdies, but he didn't have the eagles. Rory had the eagles
26:29
that week. That matters. The all four under seventy that adds up.
26:33
But like this is what people also don't look at. I think enough as
26:36
like seventy one, sixty nine, seventy one, but the only thing that
26:38
stands out is the seventy six, Like, oh this guy sucks. It's
26:41
like, well, it was two strokes here, two strokes here from three
26:44
straight sixty nine's and if he just doesn't have and I know I fifs and
26:48
butts and all that, but my point being, I do think it's something
26:51
that people should look at a little bit more. I was trying to see
26:53
how my guy's been doing. I was advocate. I'm always an advocate for
26:56
my guy. Here and same type of setup. I mean it's not the
27:00
worst, but again two strokes and you add another five points to that,
27:03
plus the birdies that go with it, you're talking almost eighty. But typically
27:07
you see it like T thirty still gets one hundred points with seventeen birdies and
27:11
two eagles fourteen and an eagle thirteen at an eagle the guy nineteen birdies Like
27:15
these are tough tracks too. Is the Players Championship the Masters fourteen birds.
27:19
I mean it played easier this year, but still my point is with Adam
27:22
Scott, while I was like him and you know whatever, whatever, he's
27:26
nine k it's hopefully the fact that he's not eighty nine hundred invest by pricing
27:30
makes it so people that don't like him maybe they still will. But there
27:33
is Aaron Rai, Mitchell, Tom Kim, some of those guys will get
27:36
to in a second down here, any quick Corey Connor's thoughts. I'm obviously
27:41
biased when it comes to him because the Canadian factor, but any thoughts on
27:45
him coming out and pulling to Nick Taylor and getting the job done or do
27:48
you think it would more likely be somebody else. I mean, these are
27:51
good results for a signature event and a major. Right, That's so I
27:55
think people discount this to all. He's always a guy that just gets you
27:57
a top thirty or a top forty, playing in the hardest, strongest fields
28:02
at the top courses and putting up these results where again just couple strokes here,
28:07
copple strokes there, still putting up the points. Any thoughts on Corey
28:11
Cotter's as the Canadian guy this week? As always, the ball striking has
28:15
been there, the putter has not, And everyone always talks about how the
28:19
putter doesn't much the ball striking. They always overlook the fact that is around
28:23
the green play is even more of a weakness than his putting. So I'm
28:27
probably going to stay away from Connress this week, But it's not because of
28:30
the putter. It's because of what we think is going to be a pretty
28:34
high around the green signal week and Connorss just falls short there. But man
28:38
is his iron play has been so spectacular that if he's in contention, I'm
28:42
not gonna be surprising the slightest. Yeah, you don't need around the green
28:45
play. If you just stick it to six feet every time, then you
28:48
just need a putter. But yeah, That's what we were talking about a
28:51
little bit this week, right where this time the around the green play can
28:53
be more because you're hitting three wood into a par five and you're purposely putting
28:59
it in the greenside bunker because you know that's an easy up and down.
29:02
Things of that nature. Yeap. So it's a little bit of a different
29:06
around the green single in most weeks. But your point is always true.
29:10
Sometimes you can just hit the ball so well that you don't need the around
29:14
the green. In fact, maybe it means that he's hitting that three with
29:15
a twenty feet and two puttings, So yeah, it can definitely work that
29:19
way. I think it's also I know it's that, you know, a
29:21
first look for a classic slate show, but I think it's something that comes
29:22
up in Showdown as well. When you're playing PGADFS Showdown, it's like people
29:26
are like, oh, but as around the green was so bad in round
29:30
two, that's what killed him. Who cares in round three if that happen,
29:33
I mean you're dead if that happens around three. Anyway, you're not
29:36
really worried about that. You want the ball striking to take care of business.
29:40
So it's like That's why I can ignore that. In something like a
29:42
showdown slate on a main you're kind of considering it a little bit more of
29:45
who's gonna be able to make it through battle, make the cut and then
29:48
hopefully find a spike round or two over the weekend and get into the action
29:52
for you. So other guy I guess that would stand out maybe a little
29:55
is Sam Burns. I just don't know. He was good right after having
29:57
the kid and then it kind of all apart the next week. So it's
30:00
tough to say. But if I could see, if I could say somebody
30:03
down here that you could say is kind of like sort of the right price.
30:07
Probably still not, He's probably still overpriced, But I'm just saying,
30:11
like, at least I could see the guy has win equity on the PGA
30:14
Tour. He wins more than most of the guys around him here, so
30:18
or has. It's just whether or not he can show back up. So
30:21
don't hate going to someone like him. Let's keep it moving. Let's go
30:22
to this eight K range. We got Rye down to Nick Taylor, last
30:26
year's winner. Obviously an emphatic win, took it away from Tommy Ladd,
30:30
but great to see a Canadian get back into the winner circle and just a
30:33
crazy, crazy finish to get it done the way he did. But oh
30:37
man, I hope that course. Just a quick side note that was painful
30:41
that play. Just watching them replay this hole and they kept playing it the
30:45
same way over and over, and the backstopping that was allowed and just everything.
30:48
I just never want to see that again. That just reminds you.
30:52
Luckily, an amazing finish. The Canadian got the job done. Shout out
30:55
to Nick Taylor. But hard to watch that one and think and remind myself
30:59
of it back in my head. Thoughts on this ak range, Alex,
31:00
any any thoughts extra there? Yeah, Mitchell's the one who stands out.
31:04
As I mentioned, beyond that, there are a couple guys who I expect
31:08
to be really low oaned, like, well, maybe maybe they won't be.
31:11
But matc Hughes at eighty three anytime around the Green Spikes, I have
31:17
interest there. He had a series of very good of Vincen Ross, who's
31:22
actually fairly popular as one of the cheapest options to Wells Fargo. But then
31:26
you go to the PGA Championship he misses the cut, so maybe his ownership
31:29
will drop again, in which case I'd be interested in Hughes. I think
31:33
Akshay and Nick Taylor are probably gonna be the more popular guys, and I
31:37
kind of think they deserve that ownership. I don't know what you're thinking there.
31:41
Yeah, I think it's gonna happen no matter what. Akshay continues with
31:45
his sort of mo o now of like it's boom or bust again. It's
31:48
so funny though, like these are nothing like seventy three seventy two. That's
31:52
he didn't do anything wrong, he just didn't make the cut, and it's
31:55
you know, a few strokes here, a few strokes there, and people
31:56
like, oh, you missed the cut, though he's not in good form
32:00
seventy three seventy like the ot A PGA Championship, these are pretty standard scores
32:05
out there, and again you're not playing them for that. You're playing them
32:07
for these spikes, including the win. But like seventeenth, eleventh, first,
32:13
thirty fifth, eighteenth and thirty fifth typically at a course like this,
32:15
that's at the Masters and of course like this, that would come with scoring.
32:19
So can shake that one off a little bit. But I think it's
32:21
fine, yeah, to your point there. I think, you know,
32:23
Aaron Rye will still get some love because two things. One you know people
32:29
love him. Two the best buy pricing of eighty nine hundred and three,
32:32
you know, ok form coming in, I guess it would be a fourth
32:36
then that I was gonna try and get to. Was that definitely known more
32:38
for his around the green play. You think back to when he won this
32:40
his way back now of winning the Scottish Open, but just being able to
32:44
miss clip it up tight. He does it all the time. The problem
32:46
with him is he puts everything from around the green to four feet and then
32:51
you do have to sweat the four foot It's like every single time, and
32:53
he misses a lot of them. So just a note on him. But
32:57
I like your Mitchell call. I like, you know some of the bottom
33:00
range stuff. Shout up to our guy ri In. He's a huge EVR
33:02
fan. He pops up her says, finally gets his respect. Let's go,
33:07
what's what's he been doing? This is nuts though it is pretty crazy.
33:09
Look at us T fifty three at the PGA Championship, but pops a
33:14
fourteen verdies in an eagle for almost seventy points. Myrtle Beach. He was
33:19
the huge favorite there. Did not get the job done. But man,
33:22
you know this better than anyone that's golf rough Sunday after you know, three
33:25
strong rounds, not rough. It's a seventy. I mean literally it's a
33:28
seventy. But at that course, the way it's playing, obviously not gonna
33:31
fully get the job done. But T thirty three for eighty and a half,
33:35
I mean this guy can put up the points for sure. Any quick
33:37
dots on EVR and then we'll move on to the seven K range. No,
33:42
I dis agree with the with the idea that he's just a great score
33:45
and another guy that you can throw in a group with Cam Young. Keith
33:47
Mitchell just almost always going to out produce his real lifely report position on the
33:52
drafting sport. Yeah, shout out to go collect appreciate. If you guys
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If you are watching on replay, I know many of you out celebrating having
34:15
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34:28
That's part of it. So help us out there. Back to the
34:30
seven K range here, Mark Hubbard is seventy nine hundred and I think he
34:37
always gets a little bit of love. I know last week sort of fell
34:39
off. It was a seventy one, seventy one, seventy one, and
34:40
then a seventy four, but he was well loved going into the week.
34:45
I saw a Round four showdown. A lot of people liked Davis Thompson,
34:49
So maybe that that love continues. Taylor Pendrith, I mean one recently.
34:52
And then on top of it, you know, you know Canadian guys,
34:55
so maybe maybe people go there and then there's a lot of guys you can
35:00
just take a risk on. Adam Spenson maybe gets a bit popular. Couple
35:04
good, you know, making cuts like crazy, solid enough finishes, but
35:07
he's kind of the opposite effect Alex, like, where is the upside with
35:12
this guy? It's a made cut, but where is the upside? I
35:14
guess you need made cuts, so it's helpful, but you know, he's
35:17
almost always seemingly going to be your sixth man going in and out of how
35:22
things shake out on the tournament. If you get a six to six,
35:24
yeah, I agree with that. The two that come to my mind here
35:28
in this range. Number one Daniel Berger a couple of years ago, if
35:31
we saw seventy seven hundred and I feel like this, we'd be jumping all
35:35
over it. And no, we haven't seen anywhere near that version of Burger
35:37
yet this year. But he's starting to put some solid rounds together. He's
35:40
driving the ball well again, his iron play has been pretty consistent the last
35:44
three events. The short game hasn't been there, so that's again the hang
35:47
up for me. But there's a chance that you're getting somebody who's rounding back
35:52
into that like nine K form at seventy seven hundred, So that's a little
35:57
bit intriguing. And then not many guys are going to be better fits in
36:00
our model than Ben Griffin this week coming off of two bad weeks, so
36:04
again maybe you get an ownership discount because of that, but he was really
36:07
solid before that, and another guy who scores extremely well had four consecutive events
36:13
with nineteen plus birdies for a little while. There some easier courses of course,
36:17
but this is going to be a fairly easy course as well, so
36:22
some interest there. Obviously the form isn't great, and actually this past week
36:27
he was a pretty good course fit and didn't do well. So I always
36:30
love to find guys who, you know, they haven't played that well,
36:34
but they haven't fit the course for some time, and then they all of
36:37
a sudden get to a golf course that should fit their skill set. It's
36:40
not exactly that case with Ben Griffin, even though this one does fit him
36:44
well. Yeah, I think that's an interesting point too, just because you
36:46
look at it for the set up here like again seventy one, seventy two,
36:51
like it's not that bad. It just it's the way it goes right,
36:53
that's golf. And even go back to the PGA Championship, it was
36:57
a rough start, popped to sixty five to probably missed the cut. I
37:00
forget what it was there. I think it was four over three. It
37:02
was definitely up there. I'm pretty sure at the PGA Championship, hoop in
37:06
a sixty five after a seventy three. I know that first round was really
37:08
easy, so maybe I'll off of my numbers. But again to your point,
37:13
you go back before that. Even if you include that round, it's
37:15
like sixty five, all under seventies, all under seventies, only one over
37:21
seventy. You know, a couple sixty nine, some sixty eight. This
37:23
guy can really put it out there. So you know, as far as
37:25
scores go, put him up there, I should say seventy five hundred.
37:29
He's fine. I think Kevin You is another guy that was popping a little
37:31
bit last week. Had a good Myrtle Beach and then not so great Charles
37:36
Schwab. But just to note he's there, Hoguard. The chat was mentioning
37:39
I think he's gonna be an interesting play this week. We'll probably have more
37:43
on him when we get to the Wednesday show. But you know, someone
37:45
talked about it here and said, you know, the talent just has to
37:49
put it all together. Some of these numbers are tougher to see. He
37:52
had a seventy seven in round two. He's had some bigger rounds out there.
37:58
But anybody in this lower seven k range that stands out for you on
38:00
this first look does seem to be a smaller seven k range. Again,
38:04
I'm gonna double check it while you talk about it. Yeah, Yeah,
38:06
I think you're right about that. Bo Hostler is a name that, again
38:09
short game comes up. I think of Bo Hostler another guy coming off of
38:14
two pretty bad performances in a row. So it's one of those things where
38:17
you just have to wait and see what ownership is like. Right if the
38:20
whole field is scared of those two bad events, Okay, I mean if
38:23
the field isn't scared of them, and there's a chance that he's just gonna
38:27
continue to play poorly, Okay, now I'll side with the lever side and
38:30
fade that instead. But I think the theme in this area is like,
38:36
there are a lot of guys who I think are gonna project pretty well,
38:38
who have played poorly in their last couple starts. So there's a chance we're
38:43
gonna get some really nice ownership discounts. Yeah, and there's it's really tough
38:45
to say. I know we saw this at least last week a couple of
38:49
weeks ago too, Like where this range, while you have the condensed ownership
38:52
on one or two guys, then there's like that bubble or that pocket of
38:55
guys that everyone just spreads out completely on because everybody wants summus. Everybody want
39:00
everybody's there's a given person out there that wants gim there's this fencing person the
39:04
Canadians that want him here. Oh but Fox would be the pivot, so
39:07
I'll go to him. And they all end up in that eight to twelve
39:09
range and you can do whatever you want. And then you know there's not
39:13
many that fall to like a two percent or something. This week. I
39:15
could see that's more in the upper six k range where you could see guys
39:19
get like no ownership, maybe olison or something like that. You see not
39:22
get a lot of love, but there is guys in here that you could
39:25
play. The Chad asked them out, Davis Riley, going back to back,
39:29
do you have any takes on dfs back to back or like just golf
39:32
in general, Like you know what the mindset is coming off of it,
39:36
because I remember way back when there was like a little bit of a study
39:38
done This is probably outdated now, but was like golfers that get cheaper after
39:44
a win typically still did well. Like it was not anything again, they
39:47
don't know their price and had nothing to do with that. It was just
39:50
the fact that at least they still played okay enough to pay off said price
39:53
tag. In this case, we got the opposite here, he's going from
39:57
fifty eight hundred up to seven two, and he takes on just what it's
40:01
like winning and then coming back out and then on top of it, how
40:05
it relates to DFS, just the mindset of people playing DFS. Winning definitely
40:09
takes a lot more mental energy than anything else. So there there is something
40:16
behind the idea of oh I don't want to play somebody coming off of a
40:19
win. But you also have to recognize, like what state the players in.
40:24
In terms of his career, Davis Riley isn't thinking like, oh my
40:28
god, my life has changed. You know, I just accomplish everything I
40:31
wanted to accomplish in golf. He wants to continue to get better. He
40:34
wants to continue to, you know, have this kind of success in larger,
40:38
bigger events. Stronger feels that sort of thing. So I would almost
40:44
say sometimes there's like a delayed effect too, where he's going to show up
40:46
next week, and if he starts well, he's going to be able to
40:51
continue to ride that momentum, that wave of success, and he might be
40:53
able to contend again. If, on the other hand, he starts poorly,
40:58
it's going to be a little bit tough for him to find the mental
41:00
energy to scrape a made cut through. Whereas in a regular week, do
41:06
you start poorly on Thursday, it's pretty easy to battle your ass off on
41:09
Friday to try to make that cut. So it's a variable that does matter
41:15
a little bit, But I do tend to think that people will re estimate
41:17
it. Yeah, I think he's going to fall in sort of middle of
41:20
the road, and I think it's gonna get a ton of ownership because off
41:22
a win, people usually don't like to go there. But I think to
41:24
your point, it's a good call out where it's almost worth it for the
41:29
risk versus reward. You just I mean, we talked about earlier with like
41:31
Ax Shay, Keith Mitchell, some of those guys we mentioned where we know
41:35
their boom bust, but we want some of that into our bill. Do
41:38
you have anything you do when you're building and doing roster construction that sort of
41:43
limits any of that where it's like, Okay, I don't want three or
41:46
four of these guys that have the chance to explode and blow out my lineup,
41:50
but I want to take on a little more risk because it's a large
41:52
field versus dialing that back in for small fields. Anything on roster construction there
41:57
that you can relate back to that, Yeah, yeah, I think it's
42:00
a really good point. So one thing that we do is we estimate both
42:05
round to rounds inner deviation and event to events stander deviation, which it turns
42:09
out you might think, oh, they're both just measures volatility, and golfers
42:14
are either volatile or they're not. It's not the case. Some guys are
42:16
really volatile event to event, but you kind of know what they're going to
42:20
be like all week once you see how they play Thursday and Friday. Other
42:23
guys it's like every single day, it could just be anything. Riley is,
42:29
by the way, one of the guys who's just his volatility is off
42:31
the charts. So you know that kind of spike that we just saw last
42:36
week, Technically, hypothetically it could happen anywhere for him. So that was
42:39
again really cool to see from him that he finally, you know, took
42:43
that high event to events and intervieation and did something with it. Because that's
42:46
that's the great side of being volatile, is you get those great ceiling performances.
42:52
But to your original question, like I think number one, our GPP
42:55
scores kind of create that balance automatically, because it's not just going to point
43:00
two guys who are really vital, it's also going to point to guys who
43:02
have the really nice floor and are undrowned because of their floor. But you
43:07
can also just do that manually by saying like, all right, I can
43:12
see how valuable each guy is, so I want to have a nice balance,
43:15
and maybe I'll have three guys who are above average standard viation, three
43:17
guys who are below average standing aviation, things of that nature. I do
43:21
think it's a pretty solid way to build blas. Yeah, just like I
43:23
said, I can easily see the Davis Riley situation. He comes out hot
43:29
and then just rides that adrenaline momentum off the win from the previous week and
43:32
just feeling it and keeps going. Obviously, a guy that was quite touted
43:36
I mean obviously a guy that you know more people know something about from like
43:38
Tony Romo's stories and golfing in Texas and things like that. But I mean
43:42
this was huge and to take down the world number one when he's been super
43:46
hot like that is the kind of point here that that's got to feel good,
43:50
not just breaking free from the all it was only a team win with
43:53
Nick Hardy to now saying it's an individual win, but also the way it
43:58
happened and the final group that he was was him and Scotty, So I
44:00
mean, very incredible stuff for a guy like him to go out and get
44:04
the job done, get the monkey off his back for the individual win when
44:06
it comes to that. So love to see it. Shout out to my
44:08
guy Dwayne. Really appreciate it. Man as always always going to keep out
44:12
out here grinding just like you man, trying to keep up with my guy
44:15
Dwayne. But shout out to him. Maybe try and get Dwayne and on
44:17
the action of the little one we get to the NFL season, I'd love
44:20
to do some some of those review shows with him. So he's in the
44:23
discord, always out there supporting. Gave away a bunch of money, back
44:27
in the PGA Championship, So shout out to Dwayne. Let's keep it moving.
44:30
Alex here got to talk about this upper range. Last year's Rookie of
44:34
the Year, Eric Cole Man, he fits that mold. I guess of
44:38
the other stuff. But where has this guy been? Because gonna be a
44:42
decision this week, I think for some cut cut but it was seventy two
44:45
to seventy one, seventy two seventy one, not much crazy before that,
44:49
but a little bit tougher fields, tougher courses, all of that. Do
44:52
you think this could set up well for Eric Cole? And then who are
44:54
some of the other guys sort of sixty five hundred up to sixty nine hundred
44:59
that you might have in mind. Cole was the first guy that I was
45:00
gonna bring up down here, because man, I get the type of guys
45:06
that have brought up so far, and like these guys who haven't played great
45:08
in the last few starts, but you know that the talent is there and
45:10
the fit is there. Eric Cole is that, but on steroids, his
45:15
form has been atrocious, and yet if you look back to more like his
45:21
long term form, my god, this is a fantastic setup for him.
45:23
He could be one of the best plays on the slate in that regard.
45:28
I don't know if I can I can go here because he's just been so
45:31
bad, and he's been so bad in every aspect of the game. Right
45:34
It's not like he just needs to turn around his iron player. He just
45:37
needs to get the putter going again. It's every part of his game right
45:40
now is slumping. So it's gonna be that much shoffer for him to get
45:44
back and forth. Kind of the flip side of that is Sung you and
45:49
Kim sixty eight hundred. He popped for us. He was one of our
45:52
best course fit specialists at Byron Nelson. He ends up finishing fourth, was
45:59
a big reason why we takedowns that week, and since then he's he hasn't
46:04
had like those huge finishes. In fact, he's been near the bottom of
46:07
guys who make the cut, but at least on Thursdays and Fridays, he's
46:08
played some really solid golf and this is now getting back to a course that
46:13
fits him as best as any course has since the Byron Nelson. He's one
46:19
of the guys who's by far the most sensitive to course fit because if you
46:22
look at his strokes game profile, like he's long off the tee, he's
46:25
great around the greens, and every other rest ofject of his game is questionable
46:29
at best. So in that regard, this week could be really good for
46:32
him. Sixty one hundred, I think he's going to be worth a shot,
46:36
and hopefully his game just really trends in the right direction. You mentioned
46:38
like looking at guys who you know, maybe they just had that one round
46:42
that held him back well this past week at the Charles Schwab sixty six,
46:45
seventy one, sixty nine and then just struggled mightily in the win with a
46:50
seventy nine coming in in the final round. So without that he'd have a
46:53
much better finish. His numbers will look better. I do think his whole
46:57
game is kind of trending in the right direction. Yeah, and I think
47:00
that's where you know, we're tying it all together now, bringing a full
47:02
circle. But some of the stuff you just don't know what's going on with
47:06
their golf game, and the guys, like you know, SAHKM, I
47:08
liked him last week. That seventy nine on Sunday sucked, but it was
47:12
tough for many golfers on Sunday, a guy like Eric Cole, you don't
47:15
know what he's working on right now or what it's gonna be. But sometimes
47:17
getting back to a course that does really suit you is what snaps you out
47:22
of it and gets you back on track. I mean, if you think
47:24
someone's gonna get back on track, you can't just fade them forever. So
47:27
that's kind of that part. And then even going back earlier, like last
47:30
week, people say, oh, you know you know the course at rankings.
47:34
My ass like, I don't know how you could trust Riley this,
47:36
that and the other. It's like, again, it only takes a week
47:38
of turn he was with the new coach. He did show a little bit
47:40
of size of life, he said later, which no one knew this,
47:44
of course, but he said he was battling a bit of injury at the
47:45
start of the season, but you still knew the talent was there. You
47:49
are taking a risk when you're playing these guys, for sure, but it's
47:52
that's part of it. And sometimes it's a course like this to snap them
47:55
out of it. And I just think that's you know, back to your
47:58
Ben Griffin call earlier or Hostel, we looked at they shot seventy two seventy
48:01
one. They weren't broken. They didn't shoot eighty eight eighty and like are
48:06
contemplating should they continue or or go take a couple of weeks off. They
48:09
just didn't play good golf for the two rounds that you need to make the
48:14
cut. Therefore, when everyone says someone sucks, well, he hasn't done
48:16
shit lately. He missed two cuts. Okay, what do you do before
48:20
that? He crushed in the Ben Griffin scenario. It's like, you know,
48:22
you have to just give some breaks on those things and take more into
48:25
consideration than some of that other stuff. And the chat's talking about my guy
48:31
man Ao calls him Mark Messier back in the hockey days. Those that know
48:36
Mark Messi, but Mac Meisner. Man, he just went out last week
48:38
and did his thing. He was an awesome value player. I liked him
48:42
and sh Kim quite a bit. Obviously the course straight rankings like Riley,
48:45
So in those builds, you know, I didn't quite get all of it
48:47
together to get to the full top. But a great week nonetheless, using
48:52
some of those guys. My dad's guy, Kevin Tway is here in the
48:54
mix. He's gonna be popular this week, I think somehow, just because
49:00
another good week, even with the seventy five on Sunday, really solid week.
49:04
Otherwise with a spike round in there, we know he could put it
49:07
out there the night the third some of this stuff T forty three at the
49:10
Wells Fargo, which is a signature event. Like I think for sure he's
49:14
gonna get a little bit of love at least at sixty seven hundred. We'll
49:16
have to wait and see, but I think I could see him getting it
49:19
there. Chan Kim, I feel like as a guy again the cut seventy
49:22
three and seventy three in a seventy it's not like the worst, but fourteenth
49:27
that the Texas open T six the Byron Nelson again. Oh but he missed
49:31
the cuts seventy three, seventy and a sixty six seventy two Like this sucks
49:37
for a guy to go out to the sixty six and then follow it up
49:39
with a seventy two to probably I think that week was five under, So
49:43
miss the cut on the number like, that's gotta feel brutal. So we'll
49:46
look at that. I mean, we'm not gonna go into all these guys,
49:49
but there's other ones here in the six k range. The chat's talking
49:52
about Troy Merritt. What is Troy Merritt's price this week? He was the
49:58
flow chart. I don't even know. Have we got to try Marriott?
50:00
Nick Hardy maybe gets inspired by his former Zurich Classic partner win with Davis Riley
50:06
from the previous week. I mean he's not doing much himself, but again
50:09
there's a sixty six in there. No big numbers, These are just big
50:14
for those tournaments. But like a twenty fifth made the cut last week,
50:17
I mean, these guys can spike. I will say this for an old
50:22
guy that's been popping a little bit lately. A decent week from Zach Johnson
50:25
for a T forty five. Before that was T twenty. I mean he's
50:29
been doing a little bit more lately. Chees reeve popped a little bit I
50:32
saw, and it's again nothing seriously bad within here. Like his worst round
50:37
is what a seventy three last week? Twice before that there was nothing worse
50:42
than a seventy one. Like, these guys are playing fine golf. Is
50:45
there anybody there else in the six k you want to talk to? If
50:47
not, let's do a quick run through of maybe anybody you see that pops
50:51
in the five k range. There's not really anyone else in the six.
50:54
The guy in the five is somebody that chat already mentioned. It's Troy Merritt
50:59
fifty eight hundred, and he was another guy who really popped for us as
51:02
a course fit specialist with the Byron Nelson. Like you, your course fit
51:06
specialists just popped like crazy this past week, Briley, Zach Johnson, those
51:09
guys. Our version of that was the Byron Nelson. We had the shkim
51:15
Uh fourth place finished with a Troy Merrick get into the top ten, and
51:17
we mentioned it earlier. This is another course like at the Byron Nelson that
51:22
you're seeing this spike in around the green signal, even though it's going to
51:25
be a birdie fest. So definitely a spot that I'd be interested in going
51:29
back to meritpor. Yeah, you know the Merritt flow chart. I talk
51:31
about it sometimes, but it's you know, is Troy Merhrat playing yes?
51:35
Is he cheap? Yes? Is it a birdie fest? Likely in this
51:38
case? And you know, then play Troy Merritt and especially the fields not
51:43
that strong and so at fifty eight hundred. I definitely think the way he's
51:45
been playing to getting him into the mix. None of these five K guys,
51:49
by the way, ever get love like it doesn't matter. It's like
51:52
Mike at five percent, and then you still can make the argument sure that
51:54
you take the one percent guy, but I don't know if you do.
51:57
I think at that time it's just like, honestly, it's not ahead ahead
52:00
matchup we're talking about like it's finished out your lineup with the guy you want
52:02
to finish it out with. I think you're sort of taking your stands down
52:06
here. T Dunks. T Dunks has to be like Adam Spenson for cheaper,
52:12
no upside whatsoever. There's some nice maid cuts in there, but you
52:15
just never see the full pop anymore. So tough to say there. I
52:19
know Joel Damon was popping a little in round four. It did not come
52:22
to fruition, but people were playing them Round four showdown. I saw some
52:25
good stats on him. I kind of liked him there, but nothing again
52:30
from upside perspective. But it only takes a week. I mean back at
52:32
the players T eleven. So maybe maybe you could see something out of some
52:37
of these guys, But I don't think I've got too much else down here.
52:39
I'll do a quick run through on the other side, Callum Tearin.
52:45
I don't know what he's been up to. How much is he again?
52:50
I think n Smith is another name that you could throw in down here.
52:52
What are you thinking on him? Yeah, I talk about Nesmith for a
52:54
second. He's been somebody who just he pretty much always put it's fairly well
53:00
for us. And you know there was a stretch there where nothing was coming
53:04
from that. And now fifty fourth at Myrtle Beach, twenty fourth of the
53:07
Charles Schwab And importantly he's been having success again in the categories that we expect
53:12
him to iron play around the green play, so this could be a decent
53:15
fit for him as well. Yeah, and same, we've been doing this
53:16
all day. It's all round and out on this. But like the seventy
53:19
nine, seventy six pretty bad. That's way back on the start of April.
53:22
Now we're getting almost close on June here two months later. Give her
53:25
take. Since then, it's like nothing atrocious. Oh but the only this,
53:30
only that he's still put up almost sixty five points in both of those
53:32
at fifty seven hundred that'll play very nicely coming off a T twenty four at
53:37
the Schwab and then even at the Byron Nelson a seventy and a sixty nine
53:43
that they'll tell you, which you know very well, how hard the game
53:45
of golf is. Not much else is gonna tell you seventy and sixty nine
53:49
for a three under. Nope, you're not seeing the weekend. Still,
53:52
it doesn't matter. It's what everybody else has been doing. So I think
53:54
beyond this, Like Ross asked this good question, but again you just what
54:00
my always, my answer to this always is the same, like you're trying
54:01
to, you know, been doing this here. If you like them,
54:04
play them, play them enough so that it actually matters. But typically even
54:07
if they pop, like look at look at last week, Riley got to
54:10
go to the house with it at one percent or under some one percent ownership.
54:15
And the only reason you see a bunch of our community at the top,
54:19
and we've got crossover between both of our communities. But the reason you've
54:21
seen is clearly because he was number one of the course fit rankings that people
54:23
just trust and roll out. And I will say that'd be my final note,
54:28
and then I'll let you talk about FTN and what you guys got going
54:30
on. But the course fit rankings, it got brought up like, oh,
54:34
you just play them every week. You won't get like oh this guy
54:37
did bad in them. Still like everyone else looks for a negative around it.
54:39
I'm just trying to say one thing, like, I don't care either
54:42
way. I use them clearly. I showed it off that I use exactly
54:45
what we carry and that turned in to those three tickets. But my point
54:47
would be, you're looking for spike weeks in PGA dfs like you're gonna lose.
54:52
You can lose twelve weeks in a row, make no money, and
54:54
then have one week and make it all back and a bunch more on top.
54:59
That's typically how it goes, or somebody playing looking at the long term
55:01
these course fit rankings amongst the stone and the projections and other things. You
55:06
guys have the GPP score. I'll let you talk more on FtM in the
55:08
second, but just in general, find your resources, build your process up,
55:13
stick with it. If you build in sets or whatever it might be,
55:15
you can get around to some of these builds that you have these lineups.
55:17
My point would be, you don't have to trust them or use them
55:21
as the sort of one way street like it's a piece of the puzzle.
55:23
It's a piece of the process. But I've had spike weeks by just using
55:29
the course threat rankings like three times already this year, and that's more than
55:34
most are gonna find, or even myself. I'm thrilled with that. And
55:37
when I have my nine previous weeks that sucked, boom, now yesterday happens
55:42
and get it all back and more couple showdown runouts lately, things like that
55:45
where I don't mind just trusting some of the resources that you have, sticking
55:49
to your process and being able to roll it out there. Because you are
55:52
literally just looking for those spike weeks, you're not gonna win. I would
55:55
rather win once out of every thirteen to fifteen weeks big, which most you
56:00
should, but maybe it doesn't said enough. Then I would just make profit
56:02
every week. Make one hundred bucks every week. Who profit? Baby,
56:06
No, it's not why we play the game. The name is ship it
56:08
Nation. We're trying to ship it, take it down, get the job
56:10
done, win the most possible, and spot when you spike, make it
56:14
happen. For a lot of money. So any final thoughts on that,
56:16
Alex, and then let the people know where to find you and what you
56:20
guys have going on over at FTN. I think he gets back to something
56:23
you said earlier where some like hypothetical DFS player could have been like, well,
56:28
ah, I can't trust Davis Riley this week. He hasn't done anything.
56:31
It's not about trusting a player, right, It's it's about acknowledging the
56:36
fact that he has the potential to do something that helps you ship the contest,
56:40
get the takedown, et cetera. And so I always tell people like,
56:45
if someone asks him discord, do you trust so and so? Tonight?
56:49
Do you trust so and so? This week it's get get that word
56:51
out of your DFS vocabulary. Trust doesn't belong in what we're talking about when
56:54
we're going for these takedowns, and in the GPP scores are the exact same
56:59
way, right, So you might look at the top five GPP scores,
57:01
if two of them fail, it doesn't matter if the other three come through
57:05
and help you get the takedown. So yeah, very similar idea for us.
57:09
And then the other thing that I'd say is, you know we always
57:12
talk behind close towards you and I about how one thing that you guys don't
57:16
offer that we do is prize picks, and so anyone listening who wants to
57:20
get more involved with Prize Fix, whether it's PGA, MLB, NBA our
57:23
guys, Zac is now crushing WNBA as well, which just helps us even
57:29
more. You know, head on over to FTN try us out. Two
57:31
hundred and fifty dollars for the whole year gets you the full FTN DFS subscription,
57:37
So come check us out, Price Fix, PGA, whatever you want
57:40
we've got. Yeah, and Nick canfyd you on X as well. What's
57:44
your handle over there at Alex Blickle one Yeah, check them out, guys,
57:47
definitely follow Alex. Appreciate you coming on again as always. Man,
57:51
definitely just love doing shows with you. Good little back and forth, be
57:53
able to find you know, we got some good chemistry already, but find
57:57
different angles of approach in really helped us out who is off. But he'll
58:00
be back on Wednesday with me on this channel two thirty Eastern for the regular
58:05
PGA show. Thank you guys so much for watching. Hope you have a
58:07
great Memorial Day. If you're watching this on replay, do us a favor,
58:10
smash that like hit the Subscribe to the channel so we can get to
58:14
seven thousand and beyond to do more giveaways. Thank you again to Alex.
58:17
Thanks to all for watching. I'm toe tagging tambo led ship It