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All-In on Crypto?📈Technical Analysis with Tim Warren · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:00
Speaker 1: Is now the time for you guys to step all
0:02
Speaker 1: in into crypto. Today, we'll break it down for you,
0:04
Speaker 1: give you an idea of what that might look like.
0:06
Speaker 1: My name is Paul Barrow. We'll come back into the show.
0:08
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0:10
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0:12
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0:16
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0:18
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0:21
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0:37
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0:41
Speaker 1: it around fifty percent. You're going to be fine. Bitcoin's
0:44
Speaker 1: not going anywhere, and it gives you a chance to
0:46
Speaker 1: unlock some of your wealth and put it back into
0:49
Speaker 1: other assets or maybe right back into bitcoins. So check
0:52
Speaker 1: it out use our link down below. Let's get into it.
0:56
Speaker 1: So today we're going to have Tim Warren jump in
0:58
Speaker 1: and of course you guys know Tim warn from the
1:00
Speaker 1: Tim Warren channel.
1:01
Speaker 2: How are you doing good? Doing very good again? Babies
1:04
Speaker 2: a couple weeks old? Now you asked me off air,
1:06
Speaker 2: am I getting sleep? I'm getting decent sleep for a baby,
1:09
Speaker 2: so I really can't complain. I'm starting this week is
1:12
Speaker 2: by week, I'm kind of getting back into, slowly but
1:14
Speaker 2: surely the full run of everything we do in our community.
1:17
Speaker 2: But I'm glad to be here back with you again
1:19
Speaker 2: after a couple of weeks. And yeah, how you doing?
1:22
Speaker 1: I'm good man, I can't complain. Of course, this week
1:24
Speaker 1: has been a little bit of a nuts with everything
1:27
Speaker 1: that's going on with the FED. After Friday of last week,
1:30
Speaker 1: you guys jump over and of course subscribe to Tim's channel,
1:34
Speaker 1: setting right there at number What are you at fifty
1:37
Speaker 1: six eight? Man, let's get that up to sixty thousand.
1:40
Speaker 1: Let's move, let's go. And I wanted to get your
1:43
Speaker 1: opinion on really the first question that we're getting asked
1:47
Speaker 1: a lot, and that is is now the time to
1:50
Speaker 1: be all in? If you have a pile of cash,
1:53
Speaker 1: how far should you be into crypto with that cash?
1:56
Speaker 1: Not talking about any other assets, just you got liquid cash.
2:00
Speaker 1: Obviously not financial advice for anyone out there. You always
2:02
Speaker 1: you only ever invest the amount you can lose. But
2:06
Speaker 1: if you were looking at this market right now, Tim,
2:09
Speaker 1: how would you place this?
2:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the like you just said, there's no
2:13
Speaker 2: way to say this is the same for every single person.
2:16
Speaker 2: Every person's risk tolerance is different, every person's living situation
2:20
Speaker 2: is different. Some people are working with millions of dollars,
2:24
Speaker 2: some thousands, some hundreds, and you can't just give a
2:27
Speaker 2: blanket piece of advice or a number split to say, hey,
2:30
Speaker 2: stay this much in cash, you know this much in crypto.
2:33
Speaker 2: What I would say, going deeper than what you just said,
2:36
Speaker 2: don't don't invest a single dime you can't afford to lose.
2:39
Speaker 2: Do your children have tuition payments coming up, don't invest
2:42
Speaker 2: their tuition payments. Do you have a mortgage payment coming up,
2:45
Speaker 2: don't invest your mortgage payment. But to the best of
2:47
Speaker 2: your ability, every penny that you can get into crypto,
2:52
Speaker 2: I would say, this is a time to do it.
2:53
Speaker 2: There is going to be an argument, Paul, and I
2:55
Speaker 2: don't know if we're gona talk about in this stream
2:56
Speaker 2: or maybe a future stream. You know, we're like within
2:58
Speaker 2: that thirty day window. Now is doing the math the
3:01
Speaker 2: four year cycle. Theorists are gonna start saying we're thirty
3:06
Speaker 2: days away, maybe a little over, but maybe a little
3:08
Speaker 2: less from the all time top or from the top
3:11
Speaker 2: of the market of roll. I don't agree with that take.
3:13
Speaker 2: I'm actually gonna be making a video this Saturday telling
3:15
Speaker 2: people why I don't agree with that take. However, I
3:17
Speaker 2: still think this's a good time to do it, but
3:19
Speaker 2: you want to be prepared. There is a reason to
3:22
Speaker 2: believe we could have some sort of local top in
3:24
Speaker 2: the next thirty two let's call it thirty to sixty days,
3:28
Speaker 2: similar to what we saw in January, similar to what
3:30
Speaker 2: we saw in March of twenty twenty four. That being said,
3:33
Speaker 2: though I do still think we're early to crypto due
3:35
Speaker 2: to a lot of different factors. I encourage people to
3:39
Speaker 2: be as heavily invested as possible. But as I'm just
3:42
Speaker 2: finished saying, that's gonna be different for every single person.
3:43
Speaker 2: So I can't say fifty to fifty, I can't say
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Speaker 2: seventy five to twenty five. I can say, make sure
3:48
Speaker 2: you're set up correctly for life, have the cash you
3:51
Speaker 2: need to pay your bills, and then what can you
3:53
Speaker 2: stomach potentially parting ways with You're probably not gonna have to,
3:57
Speaker 2: You're probably gonna make a lot of money get it
3:58
Speaker 2: into crypto as fast.
3:59
Speaker 1: As part well. And you look at we did a small,
4:02
Speaker 1: small pole on this and right now it's pretty much
4:06
Speaker 1: kind of agreeing with you. Is everybody's about fifty four
4:09
Speaker 1: percent of this pole all in on crypto right now,
4:12
Speaker 1: the fifty to fifty range, which I think is a
4:14
Speaker 1: little bit more on the conservative positions at least for me,
4:18
Speaker 1: which is fifty cash fifty on crypto. And that's not
4:21
Speaker 1: talking about your other assets, real estate, what other you know,
4:24
Speaker 1: if you own stocks, bonds, other things, precious metals, those
4:27
Speaker 1: kind of things. I'm talking about just a cash liquid
4:29
Speaker 1: because this is such a liquid market, you can go
4:31
Speaker 1: in and out of cash so quickly, and I think
4:33
Speaker 1: that is going to be the case right now. But
4:35
Speaker 1: back to the point that you were talking about in
4:37
Speaker 1: terms of the four year cycle, you think you and
4:41
Speaker 1: I have talked about this quite a bit over the
4:44
Speaker 1: year of us doing a lot of podcasts together, and
4:47
Speaker 1: this has always been the question mark because we are
4:50
Speaker 1: You're exactly right, we are nearing that window, at least
4:53
Speaker 1: in terms of the time frame. So many things have changed.
4:56
Speaker 2: Now.
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Speaker 1: Is there one thing or another that you're thinking that
5:01
Speaker 1: will really shift your opinion on Is this fed rate cuts?
5:05
Speaker 1: Is it just what's happening on Wall Street or with
5:07
Speaker 1: the tech itself? What's driving your theory that we're going
5:10
Speaker 1: to break out?
5:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's actually a couple things. And again I'm gonna
5:13
Speaker 2: go in more depth on this in Saturday's video over
5:15
Speaker 2: on my channel, So if you guys want to go
5:16
Speaker 2: watch that on Saturday, probably eleven am is going to
5:19
Speaker 2: be coming out. There's a lot of things. The four
5:21
Speaker 2: year cycle in and of itself is a theory that
5:24
Speaker 2: is not even actualized. It's really based off of the
5:26
Speaker 2: market movements starting between twenty thirteen to twenty seventeen and
5:30
Speaker 2: then twenty seventeen to twenty twenty one. Well, the reality is,
5:34
Speaker 2: the first time something happens, it's just the thing that happens.
5:37
Speaker 2: The second time is something happens, you're starting to build
5:39
Speaker 2: a pattern of coincidence. But there's no theory. But yet
5:43
Speaker 2: the four year cycles only actually ever played out twice,
5:47
Speaker 2: and yet people are acting like it's this bona fide
5:49
Speaker 2: theory that's been around for forever, when in reality we've
5:52
Speaker 2: only seen it happen twice. Then you go back to
5:54
Speaker 2: what is the four year cycle? In a nutshell, it's
5:57
Speaker 2: tracking the significance of the events. I mean, every four
6:01
Speaker 2: years bitcoin has a having event where the new supply
6:04
Speaker 2: being created on the daily basis gets slashed in half
6:07
Speaker 2: and this causes a massive crash and supply, which of
6:10
Speaker 2: course has effect on price and miners. They seem to
6:14
Speaker 2: know exactly in the past when do I buy and
6:17
Speaker 2: keep my bitcoin for maximum gain and when is the
6:19
Speaker 2: right time to take profit because I know that having
6:21
Speaker 2: events coming up, Well, the significance of the having event,
6:24
Speaker 2: I think at this point is depleted. I mean, we
6:27
Speaker 2: have just a little over one million more tokens to
6:30
Speaker 2: print over the next one hundred years. It's not gonna
6:32
Speaker 2: be a significant difference. Last one I'll say, I'll leave
6:35
Speaker 2: it a little nutshelling, and I'll go in more detail
6:36
Speaker 2: on my video. Institutions have never been in the game.
6:39
Speaker 2: Institutions just decided to start investing in crypto within the
6:42
Speaker 2: last year and some change. They will be the ones
6:44
Speaker 2: dictating how markets move, not the retail investor. And the
6:48
Speaker 2: bitcoin minor. Like in the past, We're nowhere close. I
6:53
Speaker 2: said the last thing. Last thing. I'll also say twenty
6:55
Speaker 2: eighteen top and twenty twenty one top. What coincided with
6:58
Speaker 2: both those, Yes, we were over price, but also economic uncertainty.
7:03
Speaker 2: Tariffs in twenty eighteen and then the spiking inflation and
7:06
Speaker 2: therefore interest rate hikes from the Fed caused a large
7:10
Speaker 2: drop in not just crypto in a four year cycle,
7:12
Speaker 2: but the stock market as well. And this whole year
7:15
Speaker 2: of twenty twenty five has been economic uncertainty, and yet
7:19
Speaker 2: bitcoins trending up. That to me tells me this time
7:22
Speaker 2: is different. The next time we will have a recession.
7:25
Speaker 2: The next time you will have, excuse me, a pullback,
7:27
Speaker 2: a massive bear market, will be during another economic uncertainty,
7:31
Speaker 2: maybe a major recession. But in my eyes what I'm
7:33
Speaker 2: seeing right now, I don't think we're anywhere even close that.
7:36
Speaker 2: If we could survive this year with all the fear
7:38
Speaker 2: of tariffs and we're coming to the end of that
7:39
Speaker 2: and we're still hitting new all time highs, I don't
7:42
Speaker 2: think we're anywhere close to the top. I think institutions
7:44
Speaker 2: are very hungry and they will use every excuse they
7:46
Speaker 2: can to get you, as a retail investor to get
7:48
Speaker 2: out so they can buy the dips and make some money.
7:51
Speaker 1: Let me play a clip for you. This is coming
7:54
Speaker 1: in from Muhammad. He talked a little bit about this
7:56
Speaker 1: as one of the analysts on CNBC talks about market
7:59
Speaker 1: reaction being muted since all these FED attacks have occurred.
8:03
Speaker 1: Listen to what he had it said, and I want
8:05
Speaker 1: to get your opinion. Let's take a look.
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Speaker 3: But what's really amazing is how muted the market reaction is.
8:09
Speaker 3: Every aspect of this to what, the why and the
8:12
Speaker 3: so what is fascinating. The market reaction has been really muted.
8:17
Speaker 3: Has surprised lots of people in explaining it. You have
8:19
Speaker 3: a whole range opinion from it doesn't matter, this is
8:22
Speaker 3: not going to stick to it does matter, and we're
8:25
Speaker 3: going to get QI and you'll control. So you have
8:28
Speaker 3: people all over the place.
8:29
Speaker 1: Should the market reaction be different?
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Speaker 3: So I don't think so. I think right now. There's
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Speaker 3: a number of explanation why the market is muted, but contested.
8:37
Speaker 3: The one I like most is that the market has
8:39
Speaker 3: gotten comfortable with the notion that the sovereign may be messy,
8:43
Speaker 3: but the corporates are fine, and that's why Nvidia gets
8:47
Speaker 3: a lot more attention than the FED. So we have
8:50
Speaker 3: decoupled the sovereign tariffs, FED independence, fiscal We've decoupled all
8:56
Speaker 3: that from let's focus on the corporates. That's really excited.
9:00
Speaker 3: I didn't things going on and they can result in
9:02
Speaker 3: productivity enhancements that fundamentally change economy. That's what the market
9:06
Speaker 3: mindset is right now, and you need a big shock
9:08
Speaker 3: to stop the st coupling.
9:10
Speaker 1: When you look at that tim and you compare what
9:13
Speaker 1: is happening with bitcoin right now, this trader is saying
9:17
Speaker 1: one point seventeen coming in as a bitcoin price reclaiming
9:21
Speaker 1: a little bit of a cre key trend line. Right
9:23
Speaker 1: now as we're actually recording this, what are you showing
9:27
Speaker 1: in terms of bitcoin at least in the short term?
9:29
Speaker 1: And then let's go end of year.
9:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, very good question. I mean, first of all, let's
9:33
Speaker 2: start off with the FMC. I haven't been on your
9:36
Speaker 2: show since it happened. Were you as surprised as I
9:39
Speaker 2: was at that duvish Jerome Powell? I went into it
9:42
Speaker 2: fully expecting at Jackson hole, sorry said FMC is the
9:45
Speaker 2: Jackson hole. I went in fully expecting him to stay
9:48
Speaker 2: neutral and lean barish. I mean, the previous day one
9:52
Speaker 2: of the other members of the fed Hammock I believe,
9:54
Speaker 2: was saying, there's no signs that we should be cutting
9:57
Speaker 2: rate anytime soon. I was expecting him to come on
9:59
Speaker 2: echo that he comes out and he didn't promise rate cuts,
10:04
Speaker 2: but he used expressions like it's time to pivot our strategy. Yeah,
10:08
Speaker 2: And it was very shocking. And the reality is, I'm
10:10
Speaker 2: not surprised about the pullback in prices because honestly, as
10:13
Speaker 2: we're going to look on the chart here, I still
10:15
Speaker 2: am a big believer. If I've said on this channel
10:17
Speaker 2: several times that these markets are so heavily manipulated by who,
10:20
Speaker 2: by the big boys, by the institutions, and the whales,
10:23
Speaker 2: and if you get shocking news like that, I think
10:26
Speaker 2: they were just as surprise as US retail investors, and
10:29
Speaker 2: we bought in and sent us to new all time highs.
10:31
Speaker 2: They didn't get a piece of the pie. They didn't
10:33
Speaker 2: get as much as they wanted. So they bring the
10:35
Speaker 2: charts back, and I think there's a chance the bottoms in.
10:39
Speaker 2: I think there's a chance we have a little lower
10:40
Speaker 2: to go. If I can share my screen here. My
10:42
Speaker 2: mouse was malfunctioning there. But let's take a look at
10:45
Speaker 2: what Bitcoin is looking at right now, and I'll start
10:48
Speaker 2: with I'll start with the potential bad right. I have
10:51
Speaker 2: an opinion that we're very, very bullish, but I never
10:53
Speaker 2: ignore things on the charts. I think I've said this before.
10:57
Speaker 2: On the weekly chart, there is still a cautionary sign
11:01
Speaker 2: that I'm paying attention to that popped up here back
11:04
Speaker 2: around July twenty eighth or so, and that was we
11:07
Speaker 2: had a red reversal come into play in May, but
11:09
Speaker 2: these take a long time to play out. Then we
11:11
Speaker 2: had bearish divergence, and bearish divergence has been a very
11:14
Speaker 2: good tool recently. For example, we had this happen back
11:17
Speaker 2: in December and January, and that was a big reason
11:20
Speaker 2: why we topped out weekly. Bearist divergence itself is a problem,
11:23
Speaker 2: but then when you have that red reversal, a bearishmentumgray dot,
11:26
Speaker 2: and negative money flow. This is something that has plagued
11:30
Speaker 2: Bitcoin this entire bull run. So far, I have yet
11:33
Speaker 2: to see the weekly chart be ignored, and those the
11:36
Speaker 2: places it wants to pull back if you pull up
11:39
Speaker 2: signals and overlays from lux ago. It's the weekly smart trail.
11:42
Speaker 2: This happened back here in January. This happened back here
11:45
Speaker 2: in the cell signal back in April of twenty twenty four.
11:48
Speaker 2: This happened back here in the cell signal July of
11:51
Speaker 2: twenty twenty three. We have that same signal once again
11:55
Speaker 2: that technically has targets around the world of ninety seven thousand,
12:00
Speaker 2: potentially as low as ninety one, but ninety seven thousand
12:02
Speaker 2: would be the top of it. The question becomes, are
12:05
Speaker 2: we going to repeat and follow the cell signal the
12:07
Speaker 2: same way we've seen it in this cycle previously, or
12:10
Speaker 2: do we potentially get some sort of a fake out
12:13
Speaker 2: like we got during early aalt coin season back if
12:16
Speaker 2: you were to go back towards January of twenty twenty one,
12:18
Speaker 2: during the raging portion of the bull market, I think
12:21
Speaker 2: also back here in August of twenty twenty as bitcoin,
12:24
Speaker 2: as bitcoin started a big explosive run. These both were
12:27
Speaker 2: weekly sell signals as well that did not come back
12:29
Speaker 2: down to the weekly smart traill. They stopped short and
12:31
Speaker 2: then exploded to new highs. That's the question, are we
12:35
Speaker 2: so bullish that we're repeating that similar alt coin season
12:38
Speaker 2: period of twenty twenty one, or are we going to
12:41
Speaker 2: see another slow, methodical pullback like we saw back in
12:45
Speaker 2: the quarter one of twenty five and the summer of
12:48
Speaker 2: twenty four that's the question. On the good front, we
12:52
Speaker 2: have sufficed some things that I was calling for on
12:54
Speaker 2: our channel where we also had a daily cell signal.
12:57
Speaker 2: I told people, Hey, don't be surprised we come back
12:59
Speaker 2: down here towards one eleven, maybe as low as summer
13:02
Speaker 2: here towards one oh seven.
13:03
Speaker 4: Five.
13:04
Speaker 2: We've hit that level. We've hit those numbers, and we're
13:07
Speaker 2: seeing a little sustained bounce back. Even today. We've come
13:11
Speaker 2: in here with a bullish BUI signal on the four
13:14
Speaker 2: hour chart, the exact opposite of what I just showed
13:15
Speaker 2: on the weekly that green universal bullish momentum and positive
13:19
Speaker 2: money flow. So I'm not surprised right now at this rally.
13:22
Speaker 2: We do have some resistance coming in in the world
13:24
Speaker 2: of one thirteen to one fourteen? Can we break it?
13:28
Speaker 2: Can we make a move to the upside? Then all
13:29
Speaker 2: of a sudden that one seventeen is absolutely possible. But
13:34
Speaker 2: I'll show you one last thing. I've been tracking here
13:35
Speaker 2: as well, and I have a bi signal a little
13:37
Speaker 2: bit lower than even where we went. I did buy
13:39
Speaker 2: the dip here at one ten, so I got a
13:42
Speaker 2: DCA in again. But there's another one I have down
13:45
Speaker 2: at the one hundred and seven thousand dollars mark. And
13:47
Speaker 2: it's because of this new indicator that our community actually found.
13:50
Speaker 2: I didn't even find this, people in our trading group
13:51
Speaker 2: found it. It's called Spaceman Bitcoin key level. You guys
13:55
Speaker 2: can look it up in the indicator's package if you
13:57
Speaker 2: have trading view. It goes and shows you very key
14:00
Speaker 2: levels from the past, like previous week high, monthly opens,
14:04
Speaker 2: previous week low. What I'm watching right now, there's there's
14:07
Speaker 2: a lot of different crossover of support coming in down
14:10
Speaker 2: here at the quarterly open at one oh seven two forty. Okay,
14:15
Speaker 2: one oh seven two forty, you have order blocks, you
14:18
Speaker 2: have high levels of liquidity down here, liquidation levels. There's
14:21
Speaker 2: a lot of different signs that one oh seven around
14:25
Speaker 2: one oh seven to two would be a very advantageous
14:28
Speaker 2: by spot for Wales who are being patient. So therefore
14:32
Speaker 2: I put a bisgle in at that level. Am I
14:34
Speaker 2: gonna get it triggered? I don't know. There's a chance not,
14:37
Speaker 2: but I'm kind of holding out and saying, you know what,
14:39
Speaker 2: chaos happens. We don't really have any news sparking us
14:42
Speaker 2: right now to rip back up to new highs. So
14:45
Speaker 2: I'm gonna keep that bisycle there. But I like the
14:47
Speaker 2: article you brought up. I think if we can reclaim
14:50
Speaker 2: one seventeen, we're kind of breaking bearers structure. That would
14:54
Speaker 2: probably send us back into a new rally on bitcoin.
14:56
Speaker 1: What about September? Are you bullish or bearish right now?
15:00
Speaker 2: Yeah? I'm bullish. I actually told our community earlier in August,
15:03
Speaker 2: I thought that August would start with a little bit
15:05
Speaker 2: of a boom. Then I thought we'd have a correction
15:07
Speaker 2: where we get down towards that one ten mark. We
15:10
Speaker 2: went a little bit lower, but I said I thought
15:12
Speaker 2: that we would actually end August resuming the rally. We
15:15
Speaker 2: have how many days left? About four days left? Am
15:18
Speaker 2: I gonna be a little off? Is going to take
15:19
Speaker 2: into the early days of September to happen? I don't know,
15:23
Speaker 2: but my thesis at the beginning of this month was, hey,
15:25
Speaker 2: watch for us a rally to begin the month, a correction,
15:29
Speaker 2: and then a boom going into September. I'll show one
15:32
Speaker 2: more thing, another thing to be aware of in September.
15:34
Speaker 2: If I do think there will be another local top
15:37
Speaker 2: at the end of September, and that's gonna be due
15:39
Speaker 2: to if I go and share my screen again. Another
15:42
Speaker 2: indicator we're using the M two money supply. Let me
15:44
Speaker 2: bring this up. This is actually global M two money supply,
15:46
Speaker 2: so it's not just the US dollar. But this is
15:48
Speaker 2: an indicator we've been tracking and bitcoins kind of straying
15:51
Speaker 2: a little further away from it than it has more recently.
15:54
Speaker 2: It's by no means perfect, doesn't follow it exactly, but
15:57
Speaker 2: it's pretty similar. You can see the similarities between Bitcoin's
16:00
Speaker 2: price action in these blue lines, and these blue lines
16:03
Speaker 2: signal that we should continue this run, this current momentum
16:07
Speaker 2: move into the end of September. Then we should probably
16:10
Speaker 2: see about a month correction. I wouldn't be surprised if
16:13
Speaker 2: October is actually a red month, a bearish month, before
16:17
Speaker 2: continuing on after that. Again, that's going to coincide kind
16:20
Speaker 2: of nicely with the four year cycle theory as well.
16:23
Speaker 2: I'm going to kind of give it a rest here
16:25
Speaker 2: and go off of this, but my theory at this
16:27
Speaker 2: point is not completely debunked. I think we're kind of
16:29
Speaker 2: riding it. We're a little lower than I thought we
16:31
Speaker 2: would get, but it's playing out well. My anticipation is
16:34
Speaker 2: we either close the month of August bullish or we
16:38
Speaker 2: start September bullish. And I think another catalyst to be
16:40
Speaker 2: aware of, and I can't remember which one is which,
16:42
Speaker 2: so forgive me, do your research on this one. But
16:45
Speaker 2: the fifth and the eleventh of September two very important
16:48
Speaker 2: dates as rate cuts are going to be a major
16:51
Speaker 2: storyline about the next couple of months of price action.
16:54
Speaker 2: We get the next and the last levels of unemployment
16:57
Speaker 2: and inflation data before the FED has their meat in
17:00
Speaker 2: the middle of September, crucial days. We're not going to
17:03
Speaker 2: wait if you think you're waiting till the FMC day
17:07
Speaker 2: to get a rally a great cut, No, it's those
17:10
Speaker 2: data points will tell market makers, Hey, people are going
17:12
Speaker 2: to buy or people want to sell. Do this with
17:14
Speaker 2: the price. So stay aware of those dates because there's
17:17
Speaker 2: gonna be some volatility. It'll tell you the future price
17:19
Speaker 2: action as well.
17:20
Speaker 1: In Vidia earnings are happening today. The interesting point right
17:25
Speaker 1: here is the option market currently pricing in about a
17:27
Speaker 1: six point one percent post earning implied move within Nvidia,
17:32
Speaker 1: meaning that we're probably going to see some uptrend here.
17:35
Speaker 1: The reason that this is so important is because it
17:37
Speaker 1: has a lot of narrative into ethereum, which we're going
17:40
Speaker 1: to chart next. But before we go there, I want
17:43
Speaker 1: to play a clip for you. This is Tom Lee
17:45
Speaker 1: talking about why in Vidia and why it is the
17:49
Speaker 1: most important company right now and how it plays into crypto.
17:52
Speaker 1: Take a look.
17:55
Speaker 4: I mean, I know investors are really anxious and in
17:58
Speaker 4: Vidia has not performed well the last few times it's reported,
18:02
Speaker 4: But the story arc there remains that that is one
18:05
Speaker 4: of the most important companies in the world in the
18:07
Speaker 4: middle of the biggest structural change in the world economy.
18:11
Speaker 4: So I think in Nvidia still is a great story.
18:16
Speaker 4: It really wouldn't change our thesis if the stock reacted
18:18
Speaker 4: poor least.
18:19
Speaker 3: It's still your favorite trade.
18:20
Speaker 4: I think it's the most important trade.
18:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, that most important.
18:25
Speaker 4: I feel like that's yeah, that's legit, But is it.
18:28
Speaker 4: I think there's a bigger upside in the owning financials
18:31
Speaker 4: right now because financials are benefiting from AI. Okay, so
18:36
Speaker 4: they're the second order beneficiaries. Plus they're getting the green
18:38
Speaker 4: light to build on the blockchain, which could really make
18:41
Speaker 4: JP Morgan and Goldman's business models so much more profitable.
18:46
Speaker 1: All right, So, I mean Tom really wanted to just
18:48
Speaker 1: say my favorite trade is Eth. We put out a
18:51
Speaker 1: tweet right here because he was referencing Mark Newton and
18:54
Speaker 1: Mark Newton one of the analysts that Tom kind of
18:56
Speaker 1: talks about, and they hit it. I mean, well, at
18:58
Speaker 1: least if you look at the most recent they were
19:01
Speaker 1: able to say a couple at least on this most
19:03
Speaker 1: recent local bottom around forty three hundred, and then they
19:06
Speaker 1: think that this is going to be moving back above
19:08
Speaker 1: five k. So that's the real question is are we
19:13
Speaker 1: set for five k? How quickly? Lee is saying it
19:17
Speaker 1: could happen within the next couple of weeks. So what
19:20
Speaker 1: is your theory right now on ethereum?
19:23
Speaker 2: I mean ethereum just like Bitcoin or any alt coin
19:26
Speaker 2: we could track right now, it's kind of in that limbo.
19:28
Speaker 2: We just had a great run a lot of coins.
19:31
Speaker 2: A lot of coins didn't hit new all time highs
19:33
Speaker 2: like Eth did, but they maybe hit new cycle highs
19:35
Speaker 2: or price levels we hadn't seen since earlier this year.
19:38
Speaker 2: So all coins have had a nice little spike people
19:41
Speaker 2: took some profit. Like I said earlier, this concept of
19:45
Speaker 2: we got some again, I think surprising news from Jerome Powell.
19:48
Speaker 2: The retail bought quickly while they could. We saw that
19:51
Speaker 2: spike up happened live. I think this whole pullback that
19:54
Speaker 2: happened was one of those Hey, when retail misses the boat,
19:58
Speaker 2: that sucks. You just missed the boat. Vote when Wales
20:01
Speaker 2: missed the boat, and now these whales are the institutional players,
20:04
Speaker 2: the guys that manipulate and control markets. When they missed
20:06
Speaker 2: the boat, they always find a reason in a way
20:08
Speaker 2: to bring the boats back so that they can get
20:11
Speaker 2: their fill. That's a big reason why a lot of
20:12
Speaker 2: prices kind of came back down to where they were
20:15
Speaker 2: when Jerome Powell was speaking live and didn't go a
20:18
Speaker 2: whole lot lower than that. With eth I actually think,
20:22
Speaker 2: you know, five thousand is going to be a number,
20:24
Speaker 2: a nice clean round number that people want to see
20:26
Speaker 2: it get to to say, oh, new all time highs,
20:28
Speaker 2: even though we got it by getting over forty nine hundred,
20:30
Speaker 2: I would say, don't just think about five thousand. Once
20:33
Speaker 2: you clear five thousand, start looking at six thousand. One
20:36
Speaker 2: of the reasons why is because we just kind of
20:38
Speaker 2: broke out of a nice bullflag pattern explosive move here
20:43
Speaker 2: between the dates of August third to this top, not
20:46
Speaker 2: the all time high, but the top here around August fourteenth,
20:49
Speaker 2: we had this big explosive move, a nice correction within
20:52
Speaker 2: a channel that's a bullflag pattern. And yes, we pulled
20:55
Speaker 2: back down here more recently, but we have targets up
20:57
Speaker 2: here closer towards six thousand. Technically it's just blow fifty
21:01
Speaker 2: nine hundred, but it's just not uncommon at all to
21:04
Speaker 2: see this kind of thing happened. Let's go the four
21:06
Speaker 2: hour chart kind of see it more. Play it out
21:08
Speaker 2: here to watch the price action break, a resistance level,
21:12
Speaker 2: come up and then come back down and kind of
21:14
Speaker 2: touch some former resistance levels. In this case, you're going
21:16
Speaker 2: to see that resistance level is kind of just in
21:18
Speaker 2: line with the last lower high before new highs were
21:22
Speaker 2: created on eth So I think we had a nice
21:25
Speaker 2: support touch right there. Just like bitcoin, you have a
21:29
Speaker 2: four hour buy signal here, green reversal, bullsheamentum, positive money flow.
21:33
Speaker 2: We have a target right here, is this one that actually, no,
21:35
Speaker 2: it didn't break above yet. I think we need to
21:37
Speaker 2: get above forty seven forty eight hundred, and then all
21:40
Speaker 2: of a sudden, you're talking about ripping back to the
21:43
Speaker 2: upside for ETH and that signal again, everyone's gonna keep
21:46
Speaker 2: their eyes around five thousand. I'm not saying no one
21:48
Speaker 2: will take profits there, but I won't be surprised after
21:51
Speaker 2: we kind of poked through a new all time high
21:53
Speaker 2: and then quickly got rejected and came back down. This
21:55
Speaker 2: almost seems like one of those situations where we've been
21:59
Speaker 2: testing that former high, we've been rejected, we test, we
22:02
Speaker 2: get a high or low the next test, and we
22:05
Speaker 2: break through. All of a sudden, You don't just get
22:08
Speaker 2: a breakthrough and hover right above. You break through, and
22:10
Speaker 2: you explode because the sellers will be exhausted that have
22:14
Speaker 2: been spending the former all time high.
22:16
Speaker 1: Other things that are happening. You put out this tweet,
22:18
Speaker 1: but this is what's big news and courses. They're talking
22:21
Speaker 1: about this in terms of GDP data going on blockchain,
22:24
Speaker 1: and this was something that is interesting because I feel
22:28
Speaker 1: like there's a several blockchains that probably will benefit from this.
22:31
Speaker 1: One I know will be chain Link. If you look
22:34
Speaker 1: at chain Link right now, is this a token where
22:37
Speaker 1: you can still make a run I mean, I know
22:40
Speaker 1: you're very bullish on chain Link. How would you suggest
22:43
Speaker 1: someone invest in chain link today? If somebody said I'm interested.
22:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, Bye, I mean, that's the best thing I can
22:52
Speaker 2: tell you is bye. There's definitely key levels to keep
22:55
Speaker 2: an eye on. Some When I say risky, I'm always
22:58
Speaker 2: saying risky in the sense of might not get that
23:01
Speaker 2: back down that low, but if you can get a
23:02
Speaker 2: hold of it down there, that would be awesome. I
23:05
Speaker 2: think if you're sitting here and you're realizing you're extremely
23:08
Speaker 2: low on chain link, and you're kind of coming around
23:11
Speaker 2: to the concept that shane Link is going to be
23:13
Speaker 2: one of the most important cryptocurrencies in the future, start
23:17
Speaker 2: off by getting access to some now, just even right now,
23:20
Speaker 2: around twenty four forty eight is where we're looking at.
23:22
Speaker 2: I'll go ahead and share my chart here. I'd nibble
23:24
Speaker 2: that sum here right now, this is a coin that
23:27
Speaker 2: is trending absolutely in the right direction, especially since back
23:31
Speaker 2: here in June around the twenty second we are just
23:35
Speaker 2: ripping to the upside. We've been as high up here
23:37
Speaker 2: towards twenty seven. I've told people on the weekly chart,
23:39
Speaker 2: we're kind of flirting with that weekly smart trail. But
23:43
Speaker 2: my assumption was always that we were going to get
23:45
Speaker 2: up to it, kind of flirt with it, have a
23:47
Speaker 2: little bit of consolidation, and then break through and start
23:50
Speaker 2: to head up towards that thirty forty to fifty dollars mark.
23:54
Speaker 2: You know, even I told my community the other day
23:56
Speaker 2: in my trading group, I said, don't be surprised if
23:59
Speaker 2: the way this actual ends up working is we get
24:02
Speaker 2: rate cuts and then by the end of September or
24:04
Speaker 2: maybe sometime mid October, when we top out, I would
24:07
Speaker 2: not be surprised to see chain Link shooting up towards
24:09
Speaker 2: fifty to sixty dollars. Then we get that local top
24:13
Speaker 2: I talked about when you know, for your cyclist will
24:16
Speaker 2: start to sell, people look at the M two money supply,
24:18
Speaker 2: will start to sell, and we see a fifty percent
24:20
Speaker 2: correction on chain Link and we come back down towards
24:23
Speaker 2: thirty dollars or pretty much the former cycle high set
24:26
Speaker 2: back in December of twenty four. That's gonna be my assumption.
24:29
Speaker 2: Then it takes off. So I would absolutely nibble some
24:32
Speaker 2: now and then I wouldn't be surprised take some profits.
24:35
Speaker 2: You start to get a little bit of unrest about
24:37
Speaker 2: the markets, look for a correction back down towards thirty one.
24:40
Speaker 2: That's my plan. I'm gonna sell up top here, buy
24:43
Speaker 2: back in around thirty one. Not everything. I'm gonna leave
24:45
Speaker 2: a little bit to go on just against I'm wrong,
24:47
Speaker 2: but that's my plan. As far as some levels to
24:50
Speaker 2: keep an eye on, should we go lower, let me
24:53
Speaker 2: make sure. Let's get this right. We did officially have
24:55
Speaker 2: a daily sell signal or red reversal bar fromentum, and
24:58
Speaker 2: we've had some native money flow here since back here
25:00
Speaker 2: in August thirteenth. Now my problem with this, if you
25:03
Speaker 2: go back and look at that, you say, actually, Tim,
25:04
Speaker 2: we had a sell single back here on August fifteenth officially,
25:08
Speaker 2: and what did Chainley do. It kind of ignored all
25:11
Speaker 2: of that stuff and went on to a new high
25:13
Speaker 2: on this trend. So there's no guarantee we get all
25:15
Speaker 2: the way down here towards this smart trail. But twenty
25:19
Speaker 2: two to twenty one dollars is gonna be kind of interesting.
25:23
Speaker 2: You know, even twenty dollars, you're gonna see a previous
25:25
Speaker 2: month high, a yearly open price level. You didn't really
25:29
Speaker 2: get a shot after this area was used as resistance
25:33
Speaker 2: back in July. We never kind of regrouped after breaking
25:36
Speaker 2: through to retest it. So twenty two to twenty one
25:39
Speaker 2: and twenty dollars very interesting spots here for Link. I
25:43
Speaker 2: think there's also a major breaker block, which means a
25:46
Speaker 2: former level resistance that was smashed. And then again it's
25:49
Speaker 2: just that concept of hey, we couldn't sell here, so
25:52
Speaker 2: this is the next spot at the whales are really
25:53
Speaker 2: hungry and desperate, do they try to make some sort
25:56
Speaker 2: of play of manipulation to bring it all the way
25:58
Speaker 2: back here so they can get their fill and then
26:00
Speaker 2: move to the upside. That's where I have some bisignals in.
26:03
Speaker 2: But at the same time, well, we're watching in the
26:05
Speaker 2: markets right now. I don't think there's any guarantee. The
26:08
Speaker 2: momentum is just going up, up, up, in a way,
26:11
Speaker 2: we're ignoring bearers signals, We're ignoring bearish divergences sell signals.
26:15
Speaker 2: Why because people are waking up and realizing, oh, I'm
26:18
Speaker 2: missed out on shameeley. I got to get some now.
26:20
Speaker 2: And when you have more people buying than selling, what
26:22
Speaker 2: does the price do? It goes up?
26:24
Speaker 1: If you compare Avalanche and Salona right now, the two
26:27
Speaker 1: charts because Solona has been I retraced a little bit
26:30
Speaker 1: over the last couple of days. How would you play
26:33
Speaker 1: this out right now? If you if let's let's just
26:36
Speaker 1: say we had a ten thousand dollars portfolio or a
26:39
Speaker 1: one thousand dollars portfolio. Yeah, and I only wanted one
26:42
Speaker 1: of those tokens. How would you play that right now? Tim?
26:46
Speaker 2: Yeah? See, these are the trap questions, Paul. You do
26:49
Speaker 2: this too from time to time. You can invest in both, everybody,
26:51
Speaker 2: you can buy both, But for the sake of the game,
26:57
Speaker 2: I gotta choose one. I gotta choose one. I've been
26:59
Speaker 2: on here before where I'm very adamant, you know, I
27:02
Speaker 2: almost always I'm not gonna say always, but I almost
27:05
Speaker 2: always will give the benefit of the doubt to the
27:07
Speaker 2: coin that has a smaller market cap. It's just gonna
27:09
Speaker 2: be a lot easier to get a better ROI. When
27:12
Speaker 2: the market cap is smaller, it's easier to make gains.
27:15
Speaker 2: But there's another thing about Avax. I think I'm leaning
27:17
Speaker 2: towards Avax, and the reason why is because Avax is
27:21
Speaker 2: not getting the same explosion right this second that Solana is.
27:25
Speaker 2: So this is the Avax chart right here. Of course,
27:27
Speaker 2: Solana people are talking about it today. Solana is it
27:30
Speaker 2: going up here at the back about two hundred hit
27:31
Speaker 2: two oh nine here today. But anyone who's a chart
27:36
Speaker 2: guy might even already see where I'm going with this
27:39
Speaker 2: here in just a second as to why I'm gonna
27:41
Speaker 2: choose Avax over Solana, even though Solon is getting a
27:44
Speaker 2: nice run here. Look at the chart that I have
27:47
Speaker 2: drawn here. Look at this red line and this green line.
27:49
Speaker 2: We have an uptrend level of support, We've touched it
27:51
Speaker 2: several times, and an up trending level of resistance, right,
27:55
Speaker 2: but it's constricting. This is what we call a rising
27:58
Speaker 2: wedge pattern. And for Solana, hold myself included, I really
28:01
Speaker 2: hope we break this red line and go to the upside. Right.
28:03
Speaker 2: That does happen. But in the world of technical analysis,
28:07
Speaker 2: and all I can tell you is what the charts
28:08
Speaker 2: are saying. If a trad fi guy who knows nothing
28:11
Speaker 2: about Solana stumbles onto his chart and says, let's make
28:13
Speaker 2: a trade, what is he doing? He's kinda short. He's
28:17
Speaker 2: gonna short because these charts more often not break to
28:20
Speaker 2: the downside. In fact, the target that some people will
28:22
Speaker 2: use and tell you, hey, keep an eye on, would
28:25
Speaker 2: be a Solana breakout all the way back down to
28:27
Speaker 2: one twenty nine. Now, I'm not predicting that to happen.
28:29
Speaker 2: That's way too low for me. But I just wouldn't
28:32
Speaker 2: be surprised to see Solana slow down, break below the
28:36
Speaker 2: green line and just drop a little bit lower. I
28:38
Speaker 2: think some levels I'd be keeping eye on for a
28:40
Speaker 2: Solana regroup. And we just now are putting a daily
28:43
Speaker 2: smart trail back to the downside. Down here in the
28:45
Speaker 2: world of a one seventy one sixty giver. Take if
28:49
Speaker 2: I were to look at some other things, we have
28:50
Speaker 2: an order block down here towards one fifty three. If
28:53
Speaker 2: I were to pull out that new indicator, I was
28:55
Speaker 2: just showing you guys the spaceman some key things to
28:57
Speaker 2: keep an eye on. There's a little pocket right here
29:00
Speaker 2: on one seventy, and then there's another one down here
29:02
Speaker 2: at one p fifty. Those are that would not crush
29:05
Speaker 2: Solana long term in the bull market if we pulled
29:07
Speaker 2: back down towards those levels. Due to the fact that
29:11
Speaker 2: we're sitting in what a lot of technical analysts will
29:14
Speaker 2: view as a bearish indicator AVAX on the other hand,
29:18
Speaker 2: is probably days, if not weeks away from major breakout.
29:22
Speaker 2: I was here on this channel. We talked about this
29:24
Speaker 2: w pattern. We came up, we test the resistance. I said, hey,
29:27
Speaker 2: can we can we blast through? If so, the target's
29:29
Speaker 2: gonna put us all the way up to forty seven,
29:31
Speaker 2: then if we can break above this former level resistance,
29:34
Speaker 2: all of a sudden, AVAX is shooting up towards one
29:36
Speaker 2: point fifty. Right, there's a lot of ifs there, but
29:38
Speaker 2: this is a very bullish looking chart. We did reject
29:41
Speaker 2: on the resistance level. Okay, we did, but guess what
29:43
Speaker 2: we did after that. We came up here and after
29:46
Speaker 2: coming all the way down to fifteen sixty, we came
29:48
Speaker 2: up rejected, came up to a higher low of twenty
29:51
Speaker 2: rejected again, came down to twenty two. We are putting
29:54
Speaker 2: in higher lows as we're rejecting. This is a resistance
29:58
Speaker 2: level that is bound to break and shoot abex to
30:01
Speaker 2: the upside when that damn breaks, when the bulls are
30:04
Speaker 2: released again, first target forty seven back up.
30:08
Speaker 1: Second.
30:09
Speaker 2: Once that breaks, we got a long way to the
30:12
Speaker 2: upside to go.
30:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, that is that's a bullish position. You know, at
30:15
Speaker 1: least on Avalanche in general. One thing to consider around
30:19
Speaker 1: Solana is, you know, and this is something I think
30:21
Speaker 1: that everybody's been talking about, is try to get events
30:24
Speaker 1: happening here in the United States to kind of bring
30:26
Speaker 1: in the crypto investors to reality of what's going on.
30:29
Speaker 1: This is the All In Summit, which is the All
30:32
Speaker 1: In podcast. Everybody knows that it's you know, Calicanus and
30:35
Speaker 1: Jamath and David Sachs and Freeberg. Point being is is
30:39
Speaker 1: that David Sacks very tied to and in fact this
30:42
Speaker 1: whole group is very tied to Solana in general. And
30:45
Speaker 1: then of course Solana comes in and guess what they
30:49
Speaker 1: are now the number one sponsor of this event. So
30:53
Speaker 1: watch out for early September that that event could be
30:56
Speaker 1: very telling in the sense of where because any it's
31:00
Speaker 1: almost like a break point. You know, if you get
31:02
Speaker 1: a break point, something gets announced, some major opportunity. And
31:05
Speaker 1: I think Solana has been a position where they're trying
31:07
Speaker 1: to get back into the favor of American investors. Maybe
31:11
Speaker 1: this is the route they take. We'll see.
31:14
Speaker 2: I will say one warning side if they say something
31:16
Speaker 2: that shocks us, some sort of new innovation, some sort
31:19
Speaker 2: of new new partnership that no one was prepared for. Yes,
31:22
Speaker 2: we ripped the upside, but Paul, you and I we've
31:24
Speaker 2: both been here for multiple years. Conferences have a tendency
31:28
Speaker 2: to sometimes be top signals. Why because ultimately, what do
31:32
Speaker 2: we get tops? If wales have made money, how do
31:34
Speaker 2: whales take profit? If you want a massive amount of
31:37
Speaker 2: coins and you just dump all your coin stake profit
31:39
Speaker 2: at once, by the time that last token sells your
31:43
Speaker 2: back down, you really didn't get as much profit as
31:44
Speaker 2: you wanted. The better solution is, let's get suckers to
31:47
Speaker 2: buy the top. Let's get people who know nothing about
31:50
Speaker 2: the space to get really motivated and excited and buy
31:53
Speaker 2: the top so they have all the cell signals to
31:55
Speaker 2: take out, or that they have all the buy signals
31:57
Speaker 2: to give me all of my cell singles, and then
31:59
Speaker 2: the price can come back down. I'm always weary of
32:02
Speaker 2: conferences that are really backed by or supporting one coin
32:06
Speaker 2: as Look, a keyword here local top. I'm not saying
32:10
Speaker 2: the top of solon, I'm not saying the ballmarker's over
32:12
Speaker 2: for it and two hundred was the top. I'm saying
32:14
Speaker 2: local top to do what I kind of just showed
32:16
Speaker 2: where it gets up there around one sorry, two ten
32:20
Speaker 2: too twenty, people get really excited. They buy the top
32:24
Speaker 2: whales sell because they know I can get back in
32:26
Speaker 2: around one seventy or one fifty and stack my bag
32:29
Speaker 2: with more Solona tokens before it goes to five hundred,
32:32
Speaker 2: eight hundred, one thousand later on the bullmarket.
32:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I think you know. The key here is
32:37
Speaker 1: that you're blending crypto with traditional tech markets. And we've
32:41
Speaker 1: seen that kind of with cees. We've kind of seen
32:44
Speaker 1: it in the gaming sector, but we've never really seen
32:45
Speaker 1: it in the business sector. Crypto and business, and because
32:49
Speaker 1: that's really what they're all in some it's about. It's
32:51
Speaker 1: more business and tech related. Hey Tam, it's good seeing you.
32:54
Speaker 1: Thanks for coming in. I know you've been in and
32:56
Speaker 1: out with the new baby, so congratulations.
32:59
Speaker 2: By the way, thank you.
33:00
Speaker 1: It's always great to have more fathers in the world.
33:03
Speaker 1: We need that. So anyway, you guys, make sure check
33:06
Speaker 1: out Tim's channel Tim more Over on YouTube. We'll catch
33:09
Speaker 1: you next week.
33:10
Speaker 2: Okay, all right, sounds good.
33:11
Speaker 1: Paul's then see you all right, you guys, if you're
33:14
Speaker 1: not part of the Diamond Circle, get in right now.
33:16
Speaker 1: We have a brand new website that launched today, So
33:20
Speaker 1: when you visit paulbaronnetwork dot com, you're gonna be able
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Speaker 1: to actually participate in the whole new platform. We're going
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Speaker 1: to show it to you throughout the week, a lot
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Speaker 1: of new features, a lot of new updates within it.
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Speaker 1: You guys are gonna love it. Make sure and just
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Speaker 1: click the link down below. It's absolutely free to get involved,
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Speaker 1: So do that. Follow me on X at Paul Baron.
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Speaker 1: We'll catch you next time right here on The Paul
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Speaker 1: Baron Show.