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Episode 452 - 2/11/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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54321 All Systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
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welcome to episode 452 of the All Systems Go sports betting
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podcast powered by Rhythm. I'm your host, Josh Applebaum.
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What's going on, everyone? Happy Wednesday.
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It's officially hump day. That means we are halfway
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through our work week, guys, and we got a lot to get to on
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today's podcast. I have a comment, a little tip
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based on a lot of news headlines that I saw yesterday in terms of
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Major League Baseball injuries. And I have a lot of people
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asking about win totals. So I have a thought.
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We're hint. And spoiler alert, I think
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patience is going to be something that we're going to
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lean on here. But then we're going to get
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right back to college basketball kind of hitting our stride here.
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Guys, knock on wood with college hoops.
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Again, NFL season is over. So we'll be full steam ahead
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here with college basketball and of course, Major League Baseball
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right around the corner as well. But I do have a three pack of
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college basketball sweats for you tonight.
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Once again, 3 short money lines got a play in particular that
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has a really good sharp mush edge from our friends at Juice
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Reel and another bet that is a robo Jackson best bet pick
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overlap. So if you if you don't know by
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now, I was talking about Juice Reel, you can get the all
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systems go official best bets from Juice Reel with that 499 a
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week and again that's $4.99 a week picks package.
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If you want to support the pot, I consider a tip jar, but they
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also give you the Robo Jackson best bet picks.
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So these are the best bets that the AI model, the hardest
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working bot Mr. Robo Jackson spits out each day at noon.
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So this is a play that I liked from a market perspective
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happened overlap with a juice reel Robo Jackson best bet pick
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and then another play here with a good line move as well.
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So we're gonna have a a three pack to talk about on today's
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pod. Once again, getting right into
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college hoops. Couple late games as well.
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So put, yeah, put on a pot of coffee, put on your dunks and
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sweat some of these late night games out West with me.
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And of course we're going to try to go 2 and 1 eke out a winning
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night. Now looking back to our last
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night, guys, second straight winning day to start the week.
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We'll take it 2 and 1 + 0.58 units.
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Had a nice hit with Miami. Miami to me was a blueprint play
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and it really kind of, you know, signified everything we talked
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about on the pod in terms of leaving your bias at the door
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and taking a look at the game from a, you know, objective, not
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subjective perspective. And what we saw when in that
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game was UNC was the ranked team, the quote UN quote better
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team, better record. But everyone in their mother was
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on UNC. But UNC pretty much stayed -1
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1/2 some books even got down to one line Freezer, RLM, if
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everyone's playing UNC. And again, you could fade them
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off that big upset when I always like to bet against the team
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after they have a huge upset victory because it's just human
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nature to sometimes have a let down spot there.
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But public was all over Tar Heels.
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Lions stayed the same or moved toward Miami.
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Miami came up massive plus 1 1/2 winning outright. 75 to 66.
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Had a nice late night hit with Arizona State as well. 85 to 76
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win. That was another kind of fishy
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play because the Lion moved toward Arizona State even though
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they were a 500 team playing an OK state team with a far better
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record. And they got it done.
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So once again, kind of a fishy line move.
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Only loss was Nebraska and what a tease Nebraska was because
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they were down huge. I mean, they were down 2025
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points at one point and they clawed their way back.
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They went on an epic run late. They actually tied the game and
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I almost thought that they called an and one and I'm like,
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OK, we can take the lead here. But they tie the game, they
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force overtime and overtime they kind of crumble down the
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stretch. They lose by three.
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So maybe they should have lost the whole time.
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But when you're such in such a hole and you claw your way back,
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you're like, man, let's just finish it off.
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To make insult to injury, I guess, or pour some salt in the
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wound. There was a late move toward
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Nebraska. So even though Nebraska got down
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big, we actually closed that game, Nebraska around -2 -, 2
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1/2. And it was weird.
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And sometimes you'll see this. I'm one of those crazy people
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that just stares at, you know, my odds, my odds Logic Live odds
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page again, Odds logic.com/josh 123 for a 7 day free trial, 50%
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off your first month. But I got nervous about Nebraska
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because they went from -1 1/2 basically down to a pick.
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I'm like, oh, oh, this ain't good because that means Purdue
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money's coming in. But then later in the evening,
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they crept back up to -1 and half then -2 and half.
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So the late move did break Nebraska, but end up losing in
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overtime when they had an epic comeback.
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Just came up a little short there.
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But either way, guys, 2 and 1 + 0.58 units, we will take it.
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We'll put it in our back pocket and we'll reinvest it here for
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tonight. So 3 pack of college hoops
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that's we'll be focusing on for tonight.
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Again, trying to eke out another two and one.
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And I this is my favorite part about college hoops guys just
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grinding, trying to grind out winning nights when there's
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again, you know, the Olympic break, NBA is about to go on All
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Star break. So we can really focus on
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college basketball right now. But with that being said, before
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we get into our college plays for tonight, I want to just make
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one comment on MLB win totals because I've had quite a few
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people DM me on Twitter and reminder I'm always open at Josh
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under score insights slide right into the DMS. You got any
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questions, comments, suggestions?
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I'm always here for you. But a bunch of people are
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saying, hey, like, what are your MLB win totals?
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And I'm taking a patient approach, guys.
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And I think yesterday was a perfect example of why we want
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to just continue to wait a little bit.
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Like we've waited all year long. So let's see if we can, you
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know, wait out a little bit more.
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And the whole point being is there's some transactions,
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injuries happening right now. Like if you didn't notice
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yesterday, Francisco Lindor is going to be out like 6 weeks.
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Corbin Carroll for the D backs just got hurt.
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Jackson Holiday just got hurt for the Orioles.
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The Tigers just signed Justin Verlander, who actually was
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terrible to start last year with San Fran and was actually really
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awesome down the stretch. So that just got me thinking,
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you know, why would we bet a win total right now?
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Like, again, I know there's the end and the end.
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Like, you want to bet a win total early so that you
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hopefully beat the closing line. You bet an over 84 1/2 wins, and
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then you start to see it get up to 85.
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Like, yeah, we want to beat the market, but we also don't want
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to get beat by the market. So I'm not saying that, like,
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one of these players is going to cause a huge adjustment to win
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total, but Lindor, Corbin, Carroll, Jackson, Holiday,
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Verlander joining the Tigers, I mean, my Red Sox just had a
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small trade, adding Caleb Durbin from Milwaukee.
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Point being is there's still a lot of free agents out there and
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there are still injuries taking place.
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So I don't want to get locked in to win total.
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Like basically, I want to get through spring training.
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I want to read reports about, you know, who's playing well,
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who's not. I want to get some hopefully
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insight from the teams of, OK, who's going to be starting, you
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know, you know, what late signings could teams add here or
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there? So that was just my my one
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example from yesterday. Like I just saw all these high
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headlines of all these big players getting hurt.
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And I'm like, man, I don't want to better win total.
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And then, you know, have someone be hurt who I was expecting to
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play. So that was just my, you know,
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little piece of advice today. If if you're excited for
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baseball, I am too. I cannot wait to sweat baseball
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every single day with you guys. But let's just, you know, give
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it a few more, few more days, few more weeks.
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Let's get through a little bit of spring training.
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We got plenty of time to let the dust settle and let late when
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you come in too. Like that's another thing.
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Sure, a lot of sharp betters have bet these win totals
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already because their predictions say this team should
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win, you know, 79 games. So under 81 1/2 is a value play,
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but a lot of late money comes in on wind totals as well.
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And we can also shop for the best line.
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And you know, if we want an over 81 1/2, let's find a book who's
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at over 81 or over 80 1/2. Again, play these books off each
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other. But again, all these injuries,
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late signings, let's let's still try to be patient and give it
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some time here. With that being said, let's get
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right back to college basketball.
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So with that being said, first play on the board for me, 7:30
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PM Eastern Time we have game 687688 Marshall visiting Old
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Dominion. Let's set the stage talk splits,
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system matches, line moves and I'll give you my play for this
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one. So Marshall comes in 15 and 9 on
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the year. They did however just see their
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two game win streak come to an end.
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They lost to Miami OH 90 to 74 did not cover as a 2 point home
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dog. Another hand Old Dominion 8 and
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17 they just snapped A2 game losing skid.
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They beat Ohio 78 to 72. They won that game outright as a
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3 1/2 point home dog. So we've seen across the market
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here. Will this game open with
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Marshall listed as a 1 1/2 point Rd. favorite and wise guys
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jumped on Marshall? Seems obvious because they're 15
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and 9. Old Dominion is 8 and 17.
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But remember, pros don't care what the public's doing.
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They're betting based on their internal numbers.
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So maybe they had this game closer to three to begin with.
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Which is why when they saw 1 1/2, they hammered Marshall.
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We saw Marshall creep up -1 1/2 up to -2 1/2.
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You look at the juice at quite a few shops, it's still Marshall.
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Marshall juiced up -2 1/2 -, 115 couple books, I think even might
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have touched 3. So basically all movement
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liability has been toward Marshall.
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That's the first clue that Marshall looks like the sharp
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play here. You go over to DK, 77% of spread
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bets, 85% of spread dollars on Marshall.
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So low bets, higher dollars, higher dollar split.
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Now I don't love the 77% that's technically public, but remember
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this is a low back game. Like, you know, no one woke up
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today and said I got a bit Marshall Old Dominion.
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It's kind of a lower bet early match up.
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So therefore, maybe we're mitigated a little bit by being
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on quote UN quote, the public side or maybe that's 77%.
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Again, it's more money. I like that in with the line
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move. That's what I look for low bets,
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higher dollars line move. That's kind of a just a starting
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point for me. But maybe that's a lower back
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game where 77% of tickets, maybe more, more, more of them are,
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you know, sharp better. So have targeted the game in
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particular now Ken Palm has Marshall winning by two points,
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77 to 75. So you know me, I don't want to
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lay a 2 1/2 win by one or two. So I was able to get the
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Thundering Herd here on the money line.
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I got them at -140 or you can get them at -140 at the score.
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That's your best price. Some shops are as high as -150
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so definitely shop around. Forgot to mention, Ken Palm's
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got them by two, but he's also got them ranked quite a bit
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higher, 170th in the country versus 200 and 55th.
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Again, mitigating some risk going money line.
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We also look at the DK splits on the money line. 78% of ML bets,
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92% of ML dollars, so another low bets higher dollar split,
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telling us the bigger, sharper wagers going with the Thundering
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Herd money line to win straight up.
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I got a system play short Rd. favorites -4 or less with at
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least 1/2 point of line movement in their direction.
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Those teams have gone 88 and 48 this year, 65% straight up with
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an 11% ROI. That would match with Marshall.
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Marshall also better offensive efficiency, 146th in the country
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versus 261st for Old Dominion, better effective field goal
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percentage, 76th versus 281st. And they shoot the three far
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better, 57th in the country versus 173rd.
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Thundering Herd also hold their opponents to a better effective
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field goal percentage, 65th versus 100 and 43rd.
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So it might seem obvious, you know, take the 15 and 9 team
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over the 8 and 17 team. But I'm not playing Marshall
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just because they got a better record.
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We're playing them because they got a line move.
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They got good splits, system matches and and a play here
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where again, the market is, is clearly in their favor.
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So first put on the board for me. 730 PMI believe this is an
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ESPN plus game. I got Marshall to hopefully win
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the game. You can get them around -140
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some looks as high as -150 Next one for you.
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This is your first product coffee, late night play for you,
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9:30 PM Eastern Time. Let's look at a match up here
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between Portland and San Diego. Portland comes in 12 and 14 on
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the year. They've won two straight, just
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edged Seattle 54 to 53. The one that came out right as a
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3 1/2 point home dog. You know, San Diego 10 and 16.
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They've dropped three straight. Just got beat up by Loyola
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Miramount 83 to 63. Did not cover as a 6 1/2 point
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Rd. dog. So just sitting across the
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market here. Well, this game opened with San
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Diego listed as a 1 1/2 point home favorite.
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Now, right off the bat, we got to give him some homecourt
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advantage here. But a 12 and 1412 and 14 team
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who's 1-2 straight, you know, against the team that's 10 and
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16 and lost three straight and just got beat by 20, you know,
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shouldn't, you know, public is maybe thinking here, hey, you
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know, this game should be a pick up or maybe Portland should be
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favored in this matchup. However, we've seen the line
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move toward San Diego. The Toreros, they've gone from
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-1 1/2 up to -2 1/2. I actually see a couple books
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juiced up looking like they're going to three.
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Now this is a lower bet game. It's a late night matchup.
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We actually have 66% spread bats, but 70% of spread dollars
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on San Diego. So kind of a low bet, late
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night, obscure sharp line move with a predominant pro and Joe
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split in favor of the Toreros. Also, this is another money line
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play for me. So I got San Diego -136 at Bally
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Bet earlier today. Looks like -148 is your best
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price now at DK. But I saw FanDuel.
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I think they're -162 So it's always notable to me, like if a
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big book like FanDuel, who again, has a lot of recreational
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money, they're -162 and you can get a -, 148.
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I always like that. It's kind of like when Circa has
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a, you know, liability clearly toward a favorite, like if
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circus at -3 but the rest of the market is -2 that gives me
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confidence that out in Vegas, they're more bullish on that
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favorite. So that is a money line play
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here. Again, around -150 Now at this
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point, the DK splits on the money line look really good on
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San Diego. 71% of money line bets, but 96% of money line
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dollars. I have a system play for you as
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well. This is a West Coast conference
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game, the WCC and the home favorite.
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When we get a load of this guy's, when two teams in the
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West Coast Conference play each other conference match up, the
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home favorite has gone 42 and 6 straight up.
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That's an 88% win rate, just winning the game with an 11% ROI
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this year. So I would match with San Diego.
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I will just throw this at you too.
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San Diego kind of reminds me of Arizona State last night where
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you know, Portland OR OK State had the better record but open
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as a favorite move further toward the team with the worst
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record. So let's hope that San Diego can
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come through like like Arizona State did last night.
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San Diego also has just a classic buy low sell high, their
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short favorite with the worst record on a losing skid against
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a sell high dog on a winning streak with a better record.
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The Toreros have a couple advantages here.
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Better offensive efficiency, 182nd in the country versus
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222nd for Portland. They shoot the three better,
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214th in the country doesn't sound great, but Portland is
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really bad. They rank 320 eighth behind the
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arc and better free throw shooting for the Toreros, 97th
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versus 154th. San Diego by the way, 8:00 and
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6:00 at home. Nothing crazy, but a winning
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record. Portland is only one and 9 on
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the road. So Add all up here guys.
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We got a kind of fishy opener and line move toward quote UN
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quote the worst team. We also have some good splits,
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some good system matches and oh by the way, I teased this
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earlier, but this is one of the two Robo Jackson best bet picks
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from Juice Rail San Diego on the money line.
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So I got the toreros -136 again, you can get him around -150 now
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across the market, last bed of the night.
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I don't know what it is, but I feel like this is like a team
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that I sweat a lot. And they typically come through,
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although there was one time when they didn't, which they annoyed
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me. They're on the road they're on.
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They're actually at home tonight.
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But it is Grand Canyon hosting New Mexico, 10:00 Eastern Time
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tip. New Mexico comes in 18 and 6:00.
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But they have lost two straight. They just lost to Boise State 91
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to 90. They were -4 at home in that
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one. Lost the game out right.
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You know Grand Canyon 15 and 8 on the year.
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They just saw their two game win streak come to an end.
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However, they lost to UNLV 80 to 78 their last time out.
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They lost that game out right as a 2 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
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So we seen across the market here.
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Will this game open with Grand Canyon listed as a very short
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one point home favorite? And I always kind of mention
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this, but it's always notable to me when you have a very short,
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like one point home favorite, how do the public or you know,
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the public, but also the sharps react to that?
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Do they say, hey, the home favorite should be favored by
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more? Do they say, man, that that road
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dog is a good opportunity? Well, very sneaky.
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We're seeing movement toward Grand Canyon -1 up to -1 1/2
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that most books across the market.
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DK 66% of spread bets, but 86% of spread dollars on Grand
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Canyon get a load of this at circa 50%.
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So sorry 55 O percent of spread bets but 93% of spread dollars
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on Grand Canyon. So both DK and circa have a
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really good low bets, high dollar split on Grand Canyon.
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The Lopes, the antelopes. Also I believe it's a little
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bit, I didn't really understand this or realize it, but I think
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it's an altitude kind of advantage.
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Not quite like Colorado, but I heard people talk about was it
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the announcers? Last time I saw Grand Canyon at
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home, they're talking about the altitude advantage.
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So hey, we'll take it. I did money line Grand Canyon.
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Let's protect ourselves. We don't want them to win by 1
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and we push or lose. So I got Grand Canyon -118 at
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FanDuel. Looks like other books are -120
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-, 125, but I like the DK money line splits 61% of ML bets but
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over 70% of ML dollars on the Lopes.
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I also got a system play just mentioned a second ago how in
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the WAC you have those home favorites do very well straight
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up. Well, same thing in the Mountain
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West when 2 Mountain West teams play each other in conference
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play, that home favorite is 34 and four straight up this year.
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That's a 90% win rate, 9% ROI. Couple advantages for Grand
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Canyon, better defensive efficiency. 21st versus 44th for
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New Mexico, better free throw shooting. 84th versus 101st.
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They hold their opponents to a better effective field goal
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percentage, 24th versus 77th, and they do a better job of
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limiting offensive rebounds to their opponents. 33rd versus
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63rd Grand Canyon. I believe they're 12 and one at
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home. So let's get some home cooking
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here. And I also like this.
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There's something we should, you know, pay attention to because
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we're late in the year and typically in conference play,
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you're now playing whatever opponent you're facing, probably
18:30
for the second time. I like the revenge angle because
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the Lopes went to the Lobos went to New Mexico back in mid
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January. They lost 87 to 64.
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So hopefully they got revenge on the mind here to get a win at
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home. So we got line moves, bet split
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system matches. Also, by the way, we have a 20%
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sharp mush edge on Grand Canyon to win the game on the money
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line from our friends at Juice Rail.
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So let's go Lopes -118. So Marshall, San Diego, Grand
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Canyon 3 relatively short money lines.
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Let's see if we can get two out of three and continue our hot
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streak. So that about does it for
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episode 452 of the ASG pod on a big hump day, big Wednesday
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here, guys. As always, I'm going to leave
19:13
you the final thoughts. And I always want to start first
19:15
by saying thank you. Thank you for listening.
19:17
Thank you for tuning in. Thank you for grinding in the
19:20
arena with me through the winning days, the losing days,
19:22
the hot streaks, the cold streaks when we're, you know,
19:25
you can't miss and just cashing tickets left and right or we're
19:28
stuck in a ditch and you know, can't cash a ticket for the life
19:31
of us. The fact that we wake up every
19:33
day with a positive and I would call it an optimistic, cautious,
19:37
cautiously optimistic attitude, knowing that, hey, it's hard to
19:40
win long term. We got to beat these razor sharp
19:43
lines. We got to overcome the juice.
19:44
We got to avoid bad beats, but we wake up every day with a
19:47
positive attitude trying to produce a winning day.
19:49
So I really am proud of that outlook and a data-driven
19:53
approach to sports betting, which again, you really don't
19:56
hear much in in the modern world of sports betting.
19:59
It's all hot takes and clicks. Not with us.
20:01
We're paying attention to the numbers.
20:03
But with that being said, if you enjoy the pod, could you please
20:07
do something very easy, very simple.
20:08
It'll take you literally one second.
20:11
If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, just go to rate and
20:13
review. Give it a five star review.
20:15
Definitely would help us to grow the pod.
20:17
If you want to leave a nice comment, if you want to click
20:19
the follow button. That way you get a little pop up
20:21
on your phone as soon as the pod drops each day.
20:24
You want to recommend the pod to a friend.
20:26
You want to retweet the pod when I put it out each day on Twitter
20:28
at Josh under score insights. You want to do any of that It'll
20:32
be very much appreciated. Next, if you enjoy this style of
20:35
sports betting, data-driven, sharp contrarian betting,
20:38
focusing on what the market, the lines, the numbers, the excuse
20:42
me, the percentages are telling us not what our gut and our bias
20:45
is telling us. For example, UNC yeah, they got
20:48
it. They're only laid 1 1/2.
20:49
They're going to blow out Miami. Well, what did the market tell
20:52
us? The market told us that UNC was
20:54
super public and all movement liability line freeze RLM was on
20:58
Miami. So if this style of betting has
21:00
appealed to you, you want to learn more about data-driven
21:03
betting, you want to make my day, Let me know.
21:05
You appreciate the pod. You have someone in your life
21:07
who could use some data-driven tips or maybe someone's got a
21:09
birthday. You got to get a gift for them.
21:11
You know they're into sports and maybe want to get into betting.
21:14
I would love for you guys to go to Amazon.com, type in the
21:17
everything Guide to sports betting or the NFL Sharp Betting
21:20
playbook. My two books that I've written,
21:22
very proud of both. But if you want to grab one or
21:24
both of them, give a five star review on Amazon.
21:27
I'll leave a nice review if you feel so inclined and then bring
21:29
them to the sports book. I'll sign them for you and I'll
21:32
buy you a beer or ginger ale and we'll put on some coffee late
21:35
night and sweat some of these West Coast games next.
21:39
Have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Real yet?
21:41
My two favorite sports betting apps, Rhythm.
21:43
Fantastic for their AI backed models and predictions for game
21:46
bets and player props. So many great features including
21:49
the ability to tip your podcast host $4.99 a week.
21:53
Sign up to get the ASG best bet picks.
21:56
As soon as I play them they go right to the app.
21:57
You can tail fade, do whatever you like, but it's a way to pass
22:01
the hat and tip your podcast host.
22:03
But you also get the Robo Jackson best bet picks, the
22:05
sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays, the shop for
22:08
the best line features. All available when you download
22:11
Juice Reel. So download Rhythm and download
22:13
Juice Reel. Give them a five star review in
22:15
the App Store next. Do you have a live odds page?
22:18
Well, with so many college games every night now, you need a live
22:21
odds page now more than ever, especially, you know, getting
22:24
closer to March Madness and baseball.
22:26
Baseball, we're going to have, you know, 15 games a night.
22:28
The live odds page is such a critical tool if you want to be
22:31
a day driven better because you got to have access to OK, number
22:34
one. What are all the games I can bet
22:35
on tonight? What are all the sports that are
22:37
in action? I need live scoring when the
22:39
game gets going. I need live in game wagering
22:42
odds. You can, you know, if you have
22:43
an iPad or whatever, you just keep it right there as you're
22:45
watching the game. You can track the live line with
22:48
the live odds page from Odds Logic.
22:50
But most of all open column, all the current prices.
22:53
You can see which direction the line is moved.
22:54
You can pull up the line history, you can shop for the
22:56
best price. So I would very much recommend
22:59
giving Odds Logic a shot. All you got to do is go to
23:02
oddslogic.com/josh 123. That'll give you a 7 day free
23:08
trial and 50% off your first month of service.
23:11
So that about does it, guys. Another pod here in the books.
23:13
As always, two final thoughts. Whether I see you at the Borgata
23:17
in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
23:19
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut, the
23:22
Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park, Casino, MGM Springfield,
23:25
the Nash and my neck of the woods on the border of
23:27
Massachusetts and New Hampshire. Or out in the desert where the
23:30
true grinders get down. Or Billy Walters sends his
23:32
number runners where the lowest trueest possible throughout the
23:34
South Point. Or jumping in the stadium
23:36
swimming pool when he cashed a big ticket at Circa.
23:38
You're going to walk up to me. Show me up Miami, EU, everybody,
23:43
UNC line, freeze, RLM toward Miami.
23:47
They came up huge, 1 by 9. Or show me a late Arizona State
23:50
ticket, which was another fishy short money line favorite.
23:54
And first one's on me. Next one's on you.
23:55
We'll post about the book. Sweatshop Contrarian plays all
23:58
night long. So as always, guys coming off a
24:00
two and one night or A1 and 2A3 and O&O and three.
24:04
A hot night, a cold night, a winning streak, a losing streak.
24:07
We just got to stay disciplined. We got to stick to the model,
24:10
stick to the blueprint. It sounds boring, but it's
24:13
important. Flat betting, risking 1 unit per
24:16
play, 3% of your bankroll per play, not chasing, limiting our
24:20
bets. The beauty of me with a why like
24:23
3 packs is it forces you to pick your, your, your three favorite,
24:26
not based on your emotions, but based on what the data is
24:29
telling you the three strongest. And you go O in three.
24:32
That sucks, but I'd hate to go O in five or one and seven.
24:35
So you got to limit your plays. You got to eke out two in one
24:38
nights. That's really my goal here as
24:40
always. But if we can find the games
24:41
that fit that model, games that feature opportunities to go
24:45
against the public with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
24:48
no parlays and get that CLV, if we can do that, we're going to
24:51
be successful sports bettors. So I have a great Wednesday
24:55
night. Everybody enjoy the college
24:56
hoops as always. Let's see if we can keep it
24:58
rolling here. And I'll be right back at it
25:00
tomorrow. That'll be episode 453 of the
25:03
All Systems Go sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
25:07
Good luck everybody and enjoy the college hoops.