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College Football Week 5 BEST BETS | Mumps in the Road · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your head Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: made you this mad But don't you go quiet, don't
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor Your name still means something
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Look at me now.
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on Not tonight, not now Hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: hold on Let me pull you out That fella fights
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: hard But it don't get the crown Hold on, hold on,
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: stay with me now.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:44
  Speaker 4: Penn State, they probably are even worse than last year.
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: I don't know what the fuck we're even doing here.
• 1:50
  Speaker 4: Easy schedule? Yeah, way to go. Fuck you. Fuck Penn State.
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: I'm done with all this fucking shit. Charles, what's up?
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: A lot of chaos going on at that show. Let
• 2:03
  Speaker 4: me get through this fucking... I gotta go to sleep, man.
• 2:07
  Speaker 4: This is bad. I'm gonna give out some plays here.
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: I have a couple other leans, if you want to
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: call it that. I'm gonna go through all these games.
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna... Hit the TV games, the ranked games, and
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: if you want me to talk about any game I'm skipping,
• 2:20
  Speaker 4: I can. I mean, there might be a couple that
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: have some interesting angles to them, but I don't have
• 2:25
  Speaker 4: any plays on any of those, so I'm going to
• 2:28
  Speaker 4: get into it right now. ESPN and Disney Plus at noon.
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: Notre Dame, number three at North Carolina. Bill Belichick. Notre
• 2:38
  Speaker 4: Dame is just cruising right now, man, but how battle-tested
• 2:42
  Speaker 4: are they?
• 2:42
  Speaker 5: I mean.
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: They have some okay wins in here, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Purdue.
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: I mean, you want to talk about an easy schedule.
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: Notre Dame does have one. They're coming up blowing out
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: Purdue in what is a rivalry game, but it's a
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: one-sided rivalry. It is a second straight road game for
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: Notre Dame, though. And speaking of rivalries, technically they have
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: a rivalry against Stanford, and that is their next game.
• 3:06
  Speaker 4: I believe that is a rivalry, if I'm not mistaken.
• 3:08
  Speaker 4: I think they play every year. I forget if there's
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: some sort of trophy that goes on with that. North Carolina,
• 3:15
  Speaker 4: they have had a bye somewhere in here, so there
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: may be a little bit more rest. Actually, they've had
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: two byes already. They've only played three games, and they
• 3:26
  Speaker 4: played one in week zero, so North Carolina's actually coming
• 3:28
  Speaker 4: off a bye. The last time they played was two
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: weeks ago against Clemson. They lost that game, and what
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: I always say is when a team goes into a
• 3:35
  Speaker 4: bye at a bad note, which North Carolina did, I
• 3:38
  Speaker 4: think That's actually a positive. I think it will help
• 3:41
  Speaker 4: them fix some things. They've had two weeks to prepare
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: for this game, whereas Notre Dame does not have that
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: extra rest. They are coming off a rivalry game technically.
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: I would lean towards North Carolina plus the points here.
• 3:53
  Speaker 4: I mean, I don't really think they're going to win
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: the game. If I was going to play it, I mean,
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: this number is high, dude. It's 21, 21 and a half.
• 4:01
  Speaker 4: Notre Dame is that heavy of a favorite on the road,
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: second straight week, and the total is low. 46 and
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: a half so you know i like taking points but
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: it's a low total although this north carolina office is
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: pathetic but still i think if you're if you're gonna
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: really play it i think i would take the points
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: here the money does not agree with that apparently 68
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: of tickets 84 of the cash on notre dame uh
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: yeah do what you want with all that info the
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: money seems to not agree but i think If I
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: was going to have to play that game, I would
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: lean towards taking the points. Do I really want to
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: do it? No, absolutely not. Number seven at number 16,
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: Mississippi State on ABC. You'll notice that Alabama is a
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: pretty sizable favorite here on the road, as the oddsmakers
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: are telling you Alabama is still the better team, until
• 4:48
  Speaker 4: further notice at least. Mississippi State is just too hyped
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: right now, man. Maybe they're the right side as a
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: home underdog here, and they're going to get up for
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: this game at least, but I don't know. I think
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: we have to dial it back on Mississippi State right now.
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: I mean, what have they done? I mean, yeah, they've
• 5:04
  Speaker 4: looked good so far. They blew out Minnesota in a
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: game where the professional bettors liked Minnesota in that game
• 5:11
  Speaker 4: for no situational reason, though. Mississippi State went into South
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: Carolina and beat them. I don't think either of those
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: teams are that good, though. But, yeah, I mean, Mississippi State...
• 5:22
  Speaker 4: And then they beat Missouri last week. But that's a
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: pretty big game. It was a ranked versus ranked game
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: against Missouri. Although Mississippi State was like a six and
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: a half point favorite. And they won by almost exactly
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: that number, by seven. And I believe it was a
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: close game. I think it was tied late in the game.
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: So Mississippi State is going to have to play two
• 5:40
  Speaker 4: big games in a row. And in fact, three. Although
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: actually they have a bye next week. Never mind. A
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: well-timed bye before they have to play LSU next. Yeah,
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: I mean, Mississippi State will get up for this game.
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: They will. And the crowd will be pretty intense because
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: all of a sudden Mississippi State looks like they're back.
• 5:56
  Speaker 4: And they're ranked, so the cowbells will be really loud
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: there in this game. Alabama, it's going to be not
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: their first true road game. They already played one at Kentucky.
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: They're coming off an easy win over South Carolina last week.
• 6:10
  Speaker 4: But that is a common opponent. Right. So, uh, people
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: might look at that and think, well, Alabama crushed South Carolina, um,
• 6:17
  Speaker 4: by more than Mississippi state did. Right. Mississippi state only
• 6:20
  Speaker 4: beat them by seven. So the public's going to maybe
• 6:23
  Speaker 4: lean towards Alabama for that reason. Maybe again, cause Alabama
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: is still usually going to be the public side because
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: they're fucking Alabama. Mississippi state's just too hyped for me
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: to really want to play them here. Although I'm pretty
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: sure Alabama is the public side here. Um, Yeah, 59%
• 6:41
  Speaker 4: of tickets on Alabama. They're not that heavily public, but
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: the money is back in Mississippi State at 60% of
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: the cash. The line has just stayed around six, five
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: and a half here on Alabama. Money is saying Mississippi State.
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: I don't have a great reason to disagree with that.
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: I probably slightly do actually agree with that, but I
• 7:01
  Speaker 4: don't love it by any means, so not a play.
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: UCF at number 20, Houston on ESPN2. Still in the
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: noon games here. We faded Houston last week because I
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: thought they were at least in a hangover spot coming
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: off that huge game against Texas Tech in a primetime
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: isolated game, the game prior to that. And we got
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: Georgia Southern right last week. They covered against Houston. But
• 7:26
  Speaker 4: you can see why. I mean, Houston coming off that
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: crazy game against Texas Tech. That's also an in-state rivalry game.
• 7:32
  Speaker 4: And they had Big 12 playing next against UCF. So
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: it was kind of a sandwich spot. Second straight road
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: game off a real tough game. And a game where
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: Houston was within a two-point conversion of tying Texas Tech
• 7:44
  Speaker 4: at the end of that game. So yeah, it was
• 7:47
  Speaker 4: a bad spot. But now Houston, I believe they're in
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: a better spot here now. They're back at home. They're
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: coming off a whatever performance against Georgia Southern where they
• 7:56
  Speaker 4: didn't cover, which doesn't look that great.
• 7:58
  Speaker 5: UCF.
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: It's also 3-1 here, but UCF has only played one
• 8:02
  Speaker 4: road game so far. They lost against Pitt. That was
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: a game that I mentioned it tonight. I think you
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: can kind of throw that game out because that was
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: a weird rain game. It was a horrible weather game.
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: I don't think we can really take that much away
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: from that. UCF is coming off a nice home win
• 8:16
  Speaker 4: against TCU last week. But if you look at the
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: box score for that game, TCU won that game statistically.
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: They outgained UCF by almost 100 yards. They were just
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: minus two in turnovers, so that hurt TCU in that game,
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: and I don't believe it was a good spot for
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: TCU either. TCU, well, I think potentially you could argue
• 8:38
  Speaker 4: TCU had a look ahead because they have BYU this week,
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: so I think maybe they looked ahead to that. Plus,
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: it was their first road game going on the road
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: to UCF. It's an unfamiliar environment to TCU because UCF
• 8:49
  Speaker 4: has not been in this conference for that long, so
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: TCU having to go to Orlando, kind of a weird
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: spot there for them. So I think TCU got caught.
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: UCF caught them in a good spot. I don't think
• 9:00
  Speaker 4: UCF is that good of a team. But people are
• 9:02
  Speaker 4: going to look at this and think, oh, both teams
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: are 3-1 here, even though Houston's ranked 20th right now.
• 9:08
  Speaker 4: People are going to look at this spread, and I
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: think they're not going to want to lay it with
• 9:11
  Speaker 4: Houston here. Houston, an 11, 11.5 point favorite here. I
• 9:16
  Speaker 4: would lean towards laying it in this one, though. Yeah,
• 9:19
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think UCF sucks, to be honest. The
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: public is kind of leaning towards Houston. 79% of tickets.
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: 89% of the cash also on them, though. I think
• 9:29
  Speaker 4: the situation's better for Houston. UCF having to make travel
• 9:33
  Speaker 4: like that's a little bit weird. Having to go back
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: out to Texas. I don't think UCF has gone there
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: yet this year, right? Let me see. Uh... No. The
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: furthest they've gone is Pitt, so they haven't left the
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: Eastern time zone yet. And they're coming off a decent
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: mild upset of TCU going on the road. Houston's coming
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: off a not-so-good performance last week that was explainable. It
• 9:57
  Speaker 4: was a spot where they were going to overlook their
• 9:59
  Speaker 4: opponent last week, so you Eileen Houston laying the points
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: in that one All right, BC at SMU, number 21,
• 10:07
  Speaker 4: SMU on the CW. BC, like I said, they're coming
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: off that rain game, the Nor'easter game against Virginia Tech,
• 10:15
  Speaker 4: where BC hung with Virginia Tech in that game, man.
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: They lost by seven. It was a close game late. BC,
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: they were, I believe, two touchdown underdogs in that game.
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: Now BC's got to go on the road to SMU.
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: It's the furthest west BC has had to go in,
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: I don't know, probably a while. definitely this year, the
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: only other road game they've played so far is Cincinnati,
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: and they did not do well in that game. This
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: BC team, I don't think they're very good. They only
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: have one FCS win. barely getting by Rutgers. Although, granted,
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: I thought Rutgers was in kind of a bad spot
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: in that game. Rutgers, excuse me, was in a good
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: spot to bounce back in that game, I believe off
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: of the UMass upset. But still, BC got that win.
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: But other than that, they've done not a whole lot
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: that was impressive. They're coming off a big game against
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: Virginia Tech. It's going to be tough to put in
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: an effort like that again on the road here against SMU.
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: So I'd be leaning towards laying the points here with SMU.
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: SMU is coming off a performance where they did not
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: look good against Missouri State, but how up do you
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: think they got from Missouri State? You know what I mean?
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: Even though we had Missouri State in Missouri State against
• 11:26
  Speaker 4: SMU last year on the show, and Missouri State, I believe,
• 11:28
  Speaker 4: covered that game too. That was a spot where we
• 11:31
  Speaker 4: faded SMU. It was a fade spot for them, whatever
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: it was last year. This... Again, I think it was
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: kind of a fade spot. SMU was coming off that
• 11:40
  Speaker 4: game against Louisville. And they had another ACC game up
• 11:43
  Speaker 4: next against BC. So I think they looked right past
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: Missouri State. I would not put much weight into SMU
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: only beating them by 10. Not looking very good. Obviously
• 11:52
  Speaker 4: not covering in that one. BC is an awful team, though. SMU,
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: I think, is a contender in this conference. So I
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: would lay the points if I was going to play
• 12:01
  Speaker 4: this one. But you've lost the key number. It's gone
• 12:04
  Speaker 4: up from 20.5 to 21.5 points. If you're going to
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: lay it with SMU, I would try to find a 21.
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: Even though it's going to be juiced, that's what I
• 12:12
  Speaker 4: would do. I would find the 21, even at some juice,
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: and lay it if I was going to play that game.
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: 62% of tickets, 80% of the cash on SMU. So
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: the money, I think, agrees with me on that. You know,
• 12:23
  Speaker 4: it's not all underdogs that I'm going to have opinions on.
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: All right. Sometimes I'll give out a favorite as a play,
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: although I believe my entire card this week is underdogs,
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: which is, you know, not unlike me. But yeah. All right.
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: Middle Tennessee at Kansas also noon ESPNU. Kansas is coming
• 12:44
  Speaker 4: out of a bye. I believe they were in London
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: last we saw them. They lost that game to Arizona State,
• 12:50
  Speaker 4: and what do I always talk about? When you go
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: into a bye on a losing note, and they went
• 12:54
  Speaker 4: in on two straight losses. They were high-profile games, though.
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: A Friday night game, I think, against Missouri. That was
• 13:01
  Speaker 4: a rivalry game as well. And then they had to
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: go to London. Now, I don't think this Kansas team
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: is that good. I mean, they have no FBS wins
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: so far, but I think this is an okay spot
• 13:11
  Speaker 4: for them. Coming out of the bye, they went into
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: the bye on a two-game losing streak. Yes, they do
• 13:17
  Speaker 4: have to travel back from London, but they have two
• 13:19
  Speaker 4: weeks to do so. usually when teams go into the
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: bye on a bad note, they fix shit and they
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: bounce back. Now, there is the worry they're going to
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: overlook this game because who the fuck is going to
• 13:28
  Speaker 4: pay that much attention in middle Tennessee? And Kansas does
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: have a huge game against Utah on deck, which maybe
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: they do look ahead to that. So I'm not really
• 13:37
  Speaker 4: rushing to lay the points here with Kansas, even though
• 13:40
  Speaker 4: mostly it looks like a positive spot here. They just
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: can't really afford to overlook anybody right now. But the
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: problem is, How motivated are they really going to be
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: to cover this? You know what I mean? Late in
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: the game, if they're winning the game, they might just
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: pack it in and start looking ahead to that Utah game.
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: So I don't want to lay it with Kansas here.
• 13:58
  Speaker 4: Middle Tennessee, not a great team either. They're playing a
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: third road game in four weeks, which is also really
• 14:05
  Speaker 4: difficult to do. This will be the most difficult opponent
• 14:08
  Speaker 4: they've faced so far. However, for Middle Tennessee, you could
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: argue this is going to be their biggest game of
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: the season because it's the only power conference team they
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: play all season. So there are some positives for them here.
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: The money is kind of indicating towards middle Tennessee, 70%
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: of tickets, 67% of the cash on Kansas. They're around
• 14:27
  Speaker 4: a 20, 20 and a half point favorite here. I
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: don't have a good read on this game, man. The
• 14:33
  Speaker 4: market read is saying, take the points in middle Tennessee.
• 14:35
  Speaker 4: The total is kind of a mid range total. It's
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: not that high 51. Um, yeah, I just have, I
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: don't have a good read on it. I see positives
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: and negatives for both teams schedules here. Um, Do what
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: you want with all that info. The money is saying
• 14:51
  Speaker 4: to take the points. That's a game that I would
• 14:53
  Speaker 4: stay far away from. Out of the games we've talked
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: about so far, I think that's the game that I
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: have the least strong of a read on here, in
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: my own opinion. West Virginia and Iowa State on TNT.
• 15:05
  Speaker 4: Iowa State, of course, is rebuilding at this point now. Honestly,
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: they haven't been good. They've beaten an FCS team, and
• 15:14
  Speaker 4: then they beat Bowling Green, who looks like an absolute disaster.
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: And they caught them... Bowling Green caught Iowa State in
• 15:22
  Speaker 4: what was a bad spot for Iowa State. And I
• 15:24
  Speaker 4: gave out Bowling Green on the show in that game.
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: And even in a spot where Bowling Green should have
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: been able to hang with Iowa State to some extent,
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: that didn't happen at all. I just think Bowling Green
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: is terrible. I think Eddie George is getting fired. Iowa State...
• 15:39
  Speaker 4: they haven't been good when stepping up in class. So
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: they've lost. I mean, they had that. They did play
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: well in the rivalry game against Iowa. Fine. But they
• 15:46
  Speaker 4: lost the game. So they got manhandled by Utah last game.
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: Utah is good.
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: West Virginia is not as good as Utah or Iowa. Uh,
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: Iowa state does have BYU on deck too. And that's
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: a Friday night game. I think it's a, uh, short
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: turnaround time to have to go to BYU. So there's
• 16:04
  Speaker 4: the worry they might look ahead to that BYU game too.
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: So I don't really love Iowa State here. West Virginia's
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: coming up an ugly game where I gave out a
• 16:13
  Speaker 4: lean towards Oklahoma State last week because West Virginia coming
• 16:17
  Speaker 4: up that big upset win of Virginia, which is somewhat
• 16:20
  Speaker 4: of a rivalry too, West Virginia versus Virginia. I think
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: West Virginia was just totally flat coming off that game,
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: and they lost badly to Oklahoma State. Sometimes when a
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: team loses the first time, they will be hung over
• 16:32
  Speaker 4: into the next game, and it is a first true
• 16:34
  Speaker 4: road game for West Virginia as well. Kind of a
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: weird travel spot for them to have to go all
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: the way to Ames, Iowa, so I don't really want
• 16:40
  Speaker 4: to play West Virginia either. However, I think they might
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: be the right side in this game. The money seems
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: to agree with West Virginia, and that was my read
• 16:50
  Speaker 4: when I looked into this game. 52% of tickets on
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: Iowa State, 65% of cash on West Virginia. My read
• 16:56
  Speaker 4: is that it would be a bounce back for West Virginia.
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: I just don't think Iowa State's that good. They're laying 2.5-3
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: here now, so you probably can get the key number,
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: 3 on West Virginia. I'm not even convinced that Iowa
• 17:07
  Speaker 4: State's the better of these two teams, to be honest. Yeah,
• 17:10
  Speaker 4: they've got to get something for home field, obviously, which
• 17:13
  Speaker 4: is probably going to be around 3, so oddsmakers are
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: kind of telling you the teams are about even power rankings-wise.
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: I think West Virginia might be the slightly better team.
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: Not impressed with Iowa State so far. I honestly don't
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: think they're very good. So, yeah, and coming off a
• 17:29
  Speaker 4: tougher game that they had last week where West Virginia,
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: I mean, West Virginia just looked awful last week. So
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: I think West Virginia might bounce back in that one.
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: All right, that would be my lean. Next game up
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: is going to be one of my plays. ACC Network, noon, Stanford,
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: Wake Forest. Let's get this going here. I think I
• 17:48
  Speaker 4: might have two plays in a row here. Let me
• 17:53
  Speaker 4: move this up. We're taking Stanford plus 14 here. You
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: might even be able to find 14.5 right now. This
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: line has kept going up, but the public is on wake.
• 18:02
  Speaker 4: 60% of tickets on wake, but the money's agreeing with
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: me on Stanford. 73% of the cash on Stanford. This
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: line opened 13. It looks like it's 14, 14 and
• 18:15
  Speaker 4: a half right now. Find at least 14 on this.
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: I think you'll be able to do it. Maybe wait
• 18:20
  Speaker 4: and find the 14 and a half. We're not dealing
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: with a really low total here. It's in the lower 50s,
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: but even so, I think this is a terrible spot
• 18:27
  Speaker 4: for Wake Forest. And I don't know if they're a
• 18:30
  Speaker 4: good enough team to be laying points like this. I
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: know Wake had a nice resurgence last year, and they
• 18:36
  Speaker 4: made a bowl, I think, for the first time in
• 18:38
  Speaker 4: a while. Had a nice record last year. I thought
• 18:40
  Speaker 4: they overperformed last year. And they're coming off back-to-back huge
• 18:45
  Speaker 4: games right now, man. They covered at home against Miami.
• 18:49
  Speaker 4: and looked pretty good, and only a 13-point loss against
• 18:52
  Speaker 4: Miami on primetime on, I think, a Thursday or Friday
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: night two weeks ago. That was a huge game for Wake.
• 18:58
  Speaker 4: And then what did they do last week? Oh, yeah,
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: they turned around, they went into Louisville, and they upset Louisville.
• 19:03
  Speaker 4: So they're coming up back-to-back huge games. They were double-digit
• 19:06
  Speaker 4: underdogs against Louisville. Now, Louisville's quarterback, Keinholz, got hurt. at
• 19:11
  Speaker 4: the end of that game, although I believe it was... Yeah,
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: I think he didn't even come out of the game,
• 19:15
  Speaker 4: I guess, but he did get hurt because I'm pretty
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: sure he's not playing this week. But, again, Wake Forest
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: still was able to beat Louisville with kind holes in
• 19:23
  Speaker 4: the whole game, but even so, I think he might
• 19:25
  Speaker 4: have been playing injured or something towards the end of
• 19:28
  Speaker 4: the game. Yeah, I mean, there wasn't anything... Illegitimate about
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: the win really the Louisville did win the time of
• 19:34
  Speaker 4: possession which they tend to do because Louisville good rushing
• 19:38
  Speaker 4: attack for Louisville but still either way you look at
• 19:40
  Speaker 4: it wake I think they're in a letdown spot of
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: two huge games in a row as big underdogs performing
• 19:47
  Speaker 4: really well in both of them pulling off a big upset.
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: of the ranked team. And look who they have next,
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: by the way. Oh, yeah. Even though they're not playing well,
• 19:55
  Speaker 4: NC State. NC State is still a bigger brother to
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: Wake Forest in the ACC, man. Wake is considered to
• 20:01
  Speaker 4: be the littlest brother of the power conference North Carolina schools.
• 20:05
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? They're always the little brother
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: against UNC and against NC State. That's just the way
• 20:10
  Speaker 4: that and Duke as well. That's just the way that
• 20:12
  Speaker 4: it is Wake is you know, the one of those
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: teams that's outside of that like triangle or whatever and
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: wake is further west That's a big game wake always
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: gonna try to get up for those games against those
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: other North Carolina schools So I think this is a sandwich.
• 20:27
  Speaker 4: I like Stanford here at the very least. I don't
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: like Wake Forest here Yes, Stanford is having to travel
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: back east and And they do have Notre Dame next.
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: I did mention that. They're coming off a nice win
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: over Georgia Tech. They did pull off a mild upset
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: in that game. They're only a three-point underdog, though. Really,
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: this is about fading Wake, though. I think Wake is
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: laying too many points here. I don't know if the
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: incentive is going to be there for them to manhandle
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: Stanford like this. And yes, I know Stanford is having
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: to go back east. They already did it once, and
• 20:56
  Speaker 4: it didn't go well. I get it. It was bad.
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: They went to Duke, and they got destroyed. But still,
• 21:02
  Speaker 4: I don't think this is that bad. I think this
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: type of spot is overrated, dude. The West Coast team
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: going East, again, as I always say, yeah, you're playing
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: at 9 a.m. on your biological clock, but even so,
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: I think it's easier to do that than it is
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: to play a late-night game as an East Coast team
• 21:18
  Speaker 4: going all the way West and playing... until like 1 a.m.
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: your time, you know what I mean? I think this
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: is easier because, again, you get up, you have energy
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: in the morning, right? So I think this is easier
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: to do this, even though I know with these new
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: ACC teams, having to travel like this is not easy.
• 21:39
  Speaker 4: I admit that, but I think the spot is just
• 21:40
  Speaker 4: awful for Wake here. And the money seems to agree
• 21:43
  Speaker 4: with this. We're going to take Stanford as my first
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: play here. Plus the 14, even though I know since
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: moving to the ACC, Stanford has not been good when
• 21:51
  Speaker 4: coming east. But I'm going to do it anyway here.
• 21:54
  Speaker 4: It's a lot of points, man. And this reminds me
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: of two years ago. But remember, that was Stanford's, I think,
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: first year there in the ACC. Two years ago. Actually,
• 22:03
  Speaker 4: maybe they weren't even in the ACC yet. But I
• 22:05
  Speaker 4: think it was a game where I played Stanford as
• 22:07
  Speaker 4: like 12-point underdogs or so against Vandy. Stanford was coming
• 22:13
  Speaker 4: east to play Vandy. It was some bad spot for Vandy.
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: And it was some... bullshit result in that game or
• 22:18
  Speaker 4: Stanford want to, uh, like blowing the cover late in
• 22:22
  Speaker 4: the game. It reminds me of that. Just don't blow
• 22:24
  Speaker 4: the cover this time. And you're getting two touchdowns here.
• 22:27
  Speaker 4: Just do it. It's a horrible spot for wake. So
• 22:29
  Speaker 4: we're going to do it. Um, yeah, I mean, relatively,
• 22:34
  Speaker 4: I guess wake. I mean, I think they're smaller than
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: those other schools, but they're a power conference, um, division one, uh,
• 22:41
  Speaker 4: athletic school though. All right. Um, Syracuse at UConn is
• 22:47
  Speaker 4: a TV game on CBS Sports. UConn was the last
• 22:50
  Speaker 4: game that I put in my pick seven entry last week,
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: and they covered by half a point, so they got
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: me a winning pick in that contest. They covered barely,
• 23:01
  Speaker 4: losing by three to Miami, Ohio. They caught Miami, Ohio
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: in a good spot, though. Remember, Miami, Ohio was coming
• 23:07
  Speaker 4: off a monster effort where they fell just short of
• 23:10
  Speaker 4: in-state big brother Cincinnati. So Miami, Ohio was in a
• 23:15
  Speaker 4: bad spot in that one. UConn was at least able
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: to cover the number. I don't think this UConn team
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: is good, though, man. I don't. They've only played one
• 23:24
  Speaker 4: power conference team so far. They lost badly to Maryland
• 23:28
  Speaker 4: at home, and you saw what Maryland looked like last week.
• 23:31
  Speaker 4: I thought they were in a decent spot, and UCLA
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: embarrassed them, and that is putting it mildly. So I
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: don't think that loss about UConn and Maryland looks good.
• 23:40
  Speaker 4: This is not the UConn team that made a bowl
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: last year with... Fagnano, who was one of the best
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: quarterbacks in UConn history. This is bad. This UConn team
• 23:50
  Speaker 4: is not good, dude. Yeah, and they're playing Syracuse here.
• 23:54
  Speaker 4: I know Syracuse is not really that good either, but
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: I think people are going to Look at this and say,
• 23:59
  Speaker 4: why is Syracuse favored by almost a touchdown on the
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: road when they're a 1-2 team and UConn's 2-2, right?
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: I think the public's going to look at this and
• 24:08
  Speaker 4: be misled by looking at the records. Well, the odds
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: are telling you Syracuse is the better team. Syracuse... They're
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: more battle-tested, at least, as well. I mean, I know
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: they lost both their power conference games against Cal and Pitt.
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: This is not a power conference game, though. This is
• 24:22
  Speaker 4: against UConn. So Syracuse, I like Syracuse in this game.
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: If that wasn't clear, I would lay the points here. Syracuse,
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: I believe, had a bye last week, too. Yeah, they did.
• 24:33
  Speaker 4: They haven't played since Thursday, the 17th, and they went
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: into that bye on a two-game losing streak. And what
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: do I always say? Teams going into a bye on
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: a losing streak, I think it's a positive to have
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: a bye. then you can break that losing momentum. I
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: think Syracuse will actually show up and get this one, man.
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: Even though you could argue they might look ahead. They
• 24:52
  Speaker 4: have Virginia next, so they resume ACC play next. But
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: they're not going to want to lose and fall to 1-3, man.
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: I think the bye should help them. I don't really
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: think UConn's that good. UConn, I think, is in actually
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: the somewhat worse spot, playing well as an underdog last week.
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: Whereas Syracuse, last time we saw them, they did not
• 25:11
  Speaker 4: look good the last time we saw them, which was...
• 25:14
  Speaker 4: against Pitt. They lost at Pitt by double digits, whatever. Yeah,
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: I would lay it with Syracuse if I was going
• 25:20
  Speaker 4: to play this one. The money seems to strongly agree
• 25:23
  Speaker 4: with that. 66% of tickets on Connecticut, 81% of the
• 25:26
  Speaker 4: cash on Syracuse. I would find a six and a half, though,
• 25:30
  Speaker 4: if you're going to do it. It looks like the
• 25:33
  Speaker 4: money really is coming in on Syracuse because they opened
• 25:35
  Speaker 4: five and a half, and this is a game the
• 25:37
  Speaker 4: public is not really getting involved in, so that money
• 25:39
  Speaker 4: is Running away with this line, man. It's already up
• 25:43
  Speaker 4: to 6.5-7. I would try to find the 6.5 if
• 25:46
  Speaker 4: you're going to lay it with Syracuse, maybe with some
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: juice there. All right. That would be my opinion on
• 25:52
  Speaker 4: that one. Michigan at Minnesota on Foxes. We're not even
• 25:55
  Speaker 4: out of the 12 noon games yet. Fuck me. Minnesota's
• 26:00
  Speaker 4: coming off a nice upset win. They went all the
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: way to the Pacific Coast, and they upset Washington there.
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: as double-digit underdogs, man. Big win for Minnesota in that game.
• 26:10
  Speaker 4: If you look at the box score, yeah, I mean,
• 26:12
  Speaker 4: Minnesota actually outplayed them. They actually outgained them. You know,
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: it was a good upset win for Minnesota, surprisingly, going
• 26:18
  Speaker 4: out to the West Coast and getting that win. Was
• 26:20
  Speaker 4: that a late-night game? I don't think it was, let
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: me say. It was, actually. It was a late-night game,
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: and they still did that. So pretty impressive for Minnesota.
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: But you know me. I don't like playing teams coming
• 26:31
  Speaker 4: off a big upset win like that, so I still
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: think that's a negative for Minnesota coming into this one
• 26:36
  Speaker 4: against Michigan. Now, are they going to overlook Michigan? No,
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: I don't think so. Michigan's a huge name. So I
• 26:43
  Speaker 4: think Minnesota will try to give an effort here. It's
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: just will they be able to maintain that effort twice
• 26:47
  Speaker 4: in a row? And on the flip side, Michigan's coming
• 26:50
  Speaker 4: off a big effort as well against Iowa. A tough, physical,
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: low-scoring game, man. And Michigan, you know, took their first
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: loss of the season. Maybe that will hang them over here.
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: It'll be their first true road game of the season,
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: so that's never that easy. going on the road for
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: the first time. So there are some negatives from Michigan
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: here too. Although I will say the positive from Michigan
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: is they were a favorite against Iowa last week and
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: they blew the game. So sometimes when you're a favorite
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: of whatever they were, a six-point favorite or whatever, you
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: blow a game like that. Sometimes you will bounce back
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: in the next game and play better. So I'm torn
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: on this game. I don't like this game much at all.
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: The money is coming in on Michigan to some extent.
• 27:31
  Speaker 4: 66% of tickets, 75% of the cash on Michigan. They're
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: about a 6, 6.5 point favorite here. I've heard some
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: of the power ratings guys have an opinion on Michigan
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: in this game. Basically, they have Michigan as a heavier
• 27:44
  Speaker 4: favorite than this in this game against Minnesota. I think
• 27:48
  Speaker 4: Michigan is a considerably better team than Minnesota here. Do
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: what you want with that info. It is a low total, though.
• 27:55
  Speaker 4: It's in the lower 40s. And you know me, I
• 27:57
  Speaker 4: don't love laying points. in a game of the low
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: total like that especially with a road team but you
• 28:04
  Speaker 4: know i see more positives uh for the spot from
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: michigan than i do from minnesota so i'll probably agree
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: with laying the points in michigan but i really don't
• 28:13
  Speaker 4: love it uh also at noon on cbs commissioner or
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: commander in chief trophy excuse me uh begins with navy
• 28:21
  Speaker 4: at air navy at air force of course um Navy
• 28:25
  Speaker 4: and Army is always the big game that winds up
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: getting played after the end of the regular season. So
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: Air Force, I think Air Force always gets up for
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: these games against Navy and Army because Air Force is
• 28:36
  Speaker 4: almost kind of considered to be the little brother of
• 28:38
  Speaker 4: the three because they don't get the hype of the
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: Army-Navy game. This is kind of a difficult spot for
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: Navy playing a third straight road game. And this will
• 28:48
  Speaker 4: be the furthest west they're going. Let's put it that way.
• 28:51
  Speaker 4: They haven't gone further west than the central time zone
• 28:54
  Speaker 4: so far. They were in UAB last week, and now
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: they've got to go into elevation and play Air Force. Now,
• 29:00
  Speaker 4: Navy does play Air Force every year, but I think
• 29:01
  Speaker 4: they play them only in Air Force every other year.
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: So they're still not really that used to playing in
• 29:07
  Speaker 4: high elevation like this. Even though, yeah, they're used to,
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: you know, defending against the triple option of course all
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: the service academies are used to that because they all
• 29:17
  Speaker 4: run the triple option so they defend against it in
• 29:20
  Speaker 4: practice so they all have the same advantage there but
• 29:25
  Speaker 4: yeah the spot doesn't look great for Navy just because
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: it's the third straight road game although they had a
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: bye in between these though they had a bye prior
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: to last week so it's not as bad so it's
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: three road games in four weeks really so it's a
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: little bit less negative than that and I will say
• 29:39
  Speaker 4: one pod for Navy though is they're coming off a
• 29:41
  Speaker 4: bad performance against UAB last week where they lost as
• 29:45
  Speaker 4: a favorite Navy did last week and I like Navy
• 29:48
  Speaker 4: in this game last week and they did not get
• 29:50
  Speaker 4: it done UAB upset them And, you know, sometimes a
• 29:53
  Speaker 4: team will bounce back after they get upset like that.
• 29:55
  Speaker 4: And if you dig into the box score, Navy should
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: have won this game. They won the game statistically. They
• 30:00
  Speaker 4: dominated the time possession. They dominated first downs. They won
• 30:03
  Speaker 4: the yardage by a considerable amount by whatever that is,
• 30:06
  Speaker 4: 60-something yards. So Navy was better in that game than
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: it looked on the scoreboard. So there are some positives
• 30:13
  Speaker 4: for Navy coming into this game still. And Air Force...
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: Air Force is coming up an overtime game last week,
• 30:19
  Speaker 4: a double overtime game against Nevada. Now, it's not great
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: that they had to go into overtime against Nevada because
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: I don't think Nevada is very good at all. Air
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: Force is actually a four and a half point favorite
• 30:31
  Speaker 4: in this game on the road. But the fact that
• 30:33
  Speaker 4: they had to play double overtime, I think that's bad, dude.
• 30:38
  Speaker 4: Both Air Force and Navy had a bye prior to
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: last week's game, by the way. So their bye situation
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: is It's basically the same, too. But the fact that
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: Air Force had to play a double overtime game here,
• 30:49
  Speaker 4: Navy's coming off a loss that was kind of misleading,
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: an upset loss. All that being said, I think I
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: would lean towards Navy in this game, man. Navy looks
• 30:59
  Speaker 4: like they're getting the money. 51% of tickets on Air Force,
• 31:01
  Speaker 4: 58% of the cash on Navy. it looks weird to
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: me though, that air force is like a three point
• 31:07
  Speaker 4: favorite here because I think everybody like kind of considers
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: Navy to be the better team here. So I'm kind
• 31:12
  Speaker 4: of surprised Navy is not public because based on recency bias,
• 31:17
  Speaker 4: you think the public would be like, Oh my God,
• 31:18
  Speaker 4: I'm getting three points with Navy against air force here. Now,
• 31:22
  Speaker 4: the other thing to consider is that, um, Navy might
• 31:26
  Speaker 4: still be without their starting quarterback. Let me make sure
• 31:28
  Speaker 4: of that. Um, because they had to use Gutierrez last week. Um,
• 31:33
  Speaker 4: So they might be using him again. That might be
• 31:35
  Speaker 4: part of the reason why. Gutierrez was awful last week.
• 31:39
  Speaker 4: Although he was good at running the football, though, but
• 31:41
  Speaker 4: he couldn't throw the football at all. But, of course,
• 31:43
  Speaker 4: Navy mostly runs it because they're a triple option. Gutierrez
• 31:47
  Speaker 4: did pick up a ton of yards on the ground.
• 31:50
  Speaker 4: But Gutierrez, like I said, the prior game, he was
• 31:52
  Speaker 4: actually good against FAU. The game that their starting quarterback
• 31:56
  Speaker 4: went down, he came in and he led a huge
• 31:59
  Speaker 4: comeback for Navy against FAU. So I don't think he's...
• 32:02
  Speaker 4: that much of a drop-off, and Navy was still better
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: in that game last week than it looked on the scoreboard. So, yeah,
• 32:08
  Speaker 4: I think part of the reason why Air Force is
• 32:10
  Speaker 4: favored here is because Navy is with their backup quarterback still.
• 32:14
  Speaker 4: That would be my guess, because otherwise I don't think
• 32:16
  Speaker 4: Air Force would be considered to be on even footing
• 32:18
  Speaker 4: with Navy, and then they're getting three, basically, because of
• 32:21
  Speaker 4: home advantage here.
• 32:22
  Speaker 5: So.
• 32:24
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think Navy's still the other backup quarterback, but
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: that makes me like them a little bit less, right?
• 32:28
  Speaker 4: Because last week would have been the injured player theory spot, right?
• 32:31
  Speaker 4: That's part of the reason why I like Navy last week.
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: That plus they were coming out of a bye that
• 32:36
  Speaker 4: they went into, I think, on a bad note, if
• 32:39
  Speaker 4: I remember correctly. So Navy... Yeah, that second game with
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: their backup quarterback... Yeah, they went into the bye in
• 32:47
  Speaker 4: a bad note. Yeah, that FAU game, of course, where
• 32:49
  Speaker 4: they almost came back. But yeah, like I say, the
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: first game with that backup quarterback is usually the step-up
• 32:54
  Speaker 4: game where the team plays really well to support the backup.
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: And then that second game, a lot of times they
• 33:01
  Speaker 4: take a step back. But it's more likely they take
• 33:04
  Speaker 4: a step back if they play really well and win
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: the game with that backup, and they did not. They
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: played pretty poorly and lost to a bad UAB team, so...
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: I still think the spot sets up better for Navy here.
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: My lean in that game is going to be Navy
• 33:17
  Speaker 4: plus the points. It's, yeah, the Trump trophy. Trump might
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: be in attendance at some of those. He usually goes
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: to the Army-Navy game. I don't think he's going to
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: be at this game, though. Next game up is my
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: other early play here. Michigan State at Wisconsin on Big
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: Ten Network. You know what I'm doing with this game.
• 33:36
  Speaker 4: If you know me at all. But we need to
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: find the key number on this, man. I don't like
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: that we've lost the key number on this. Right now,
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: it's Michigan State plus 9.5. I want to get the
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: 10 on this. I think Michigan State is in one
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: of the best spots of the week here. This did
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: open 10. The number's 9.5 right now, and it's dropping towards...
• 33:59
  Speaker 4: It's actually at 8 at some of the Vegas sharp books.
• 34:03
  Speaker 4: The sharp lean definitely is indicating towards Michigan State here.
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: With me, I would still take the 9.5. Maybe put
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: a little bit less money on it. But this is
• 34:12
  Speaker 4: a horrible spot for Wisconsin, which I'm going to talk
• 34:16
  Speaker 4: about in a second. But also, the total is 43.5,
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: which is a low total. And you know I like
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: to play underdogs. with low totals like this. And the
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: money seems to be kind of indicating towards the under
• 34:25
  Speaker 4: in that game too. So I like playing underdogs with
• 34:28
  Speaker 4: low totals like this. This Wisconsin offense, they're not a
• 34:32
  Speaker 4: good offense, dude. So having them lay a lot of
• 34:34
  Speaker 4: points like this against another power conference team, that seems
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: like a bad idea to me as well. for Wisconsin
• 34:41
  Speaker 4: but Wisconsin's in a horrific spot they just went into
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: Happy Valley and upset Penn State on the road back
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: when Penn State was still ranked which they're never going
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: to be again this year but Wisconsin was a double
• 34:52
  Speaker 4: digit underdog in that game basically Wisconsin pulled off the
• 34:55
  Speaker 4: huge upset win so right away as soon as I
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: saw that result I was looking like let's fade with
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: Wisconsin in the next game you know what I mean Uh,
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: looking at this game. Yes. Wisconsin did outplay Penn state.
• 35:07
  Speaker 4: Penn state is ass. We know that now, uh, that
• 35:09
  Speaker 4: was a horrible, horrible game tonight. So sorry about that.
• 35:13
  Speaker 4: I thought it was a good spot. Um, my man, Marco, uh,
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: D'Angelo seemed to agree with me on Penn state though. Um, looking, uh,
• 35:21
  Speaker 4: I looked at his, uh, page and he apparently, I
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: gave out a, gave out a, a play on, uh,
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: Penn state tonight. So, uh, I like to see that
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: we were apparently in agreement on that. Um, I think
• 35:32
  Speaker 4: the way that he does in a lot of ways, man.
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: But still, that was a huge upset win for Wisconsin.
• 35:37
  Speaker 4: Now they're back at home against Michigan State, who's been
• 35:40
  Speaker 4: down for a while. And Wisconsin next, yes, they have
• 35:43
  Speaker 4: a bye next, but look at their run of games
• 35:45
  Speaker 4: after the bye. They play three ranked teams in a row.
• 35:48
  Speaker 4: They have to go out to the Pacific Coast to
• 35:49
  Speaker 4: play UCLA, who's definitely upstart here and now ranked. Then
• 35:53
  Speaker 4: they have USC and Iowa after that. So they have
• 35:55
  Speaker 4: three ranked teams in a row. This is a sandwich spot, man.
• 35:59
  Speaker 4: I think they might start looking forward to this bye here.
• 36:02
  Speaker 4: They're at the very least in a letdown spot here,
• 36:04
  Speaker 4: and it looks less impressive now, of course, but still.
• 36:09
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 36:10
  Speaker 4: Wisconsin, bad spot here for them. They're also not the
• 36:12
  Speaker 4: type of team that should be laying points like this.
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: Michigan State hasn't looked good, well, the last two games really,
• 36:18
  Speaker 4: but really the last game they didn't look good against Nebraska.
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: But I told you why I liked Nebraska last week
• 36:24
  Speaker 4: against Michigan State. That was a lean that I talked
• 36:26
  Speaker 4: about on the show. Michigan State was coming off a
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: tough performance against Notre Dame the game before that where
• 36:32
  Speaker 4: they were actually, I think, only down like one score,
• 36:36
  Speaker 4: I think, at halftime in that game. They wound up
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: losing by 17, but it was a close game at halftime.
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: Then they turned around and they didn't play well against Nebraska.
• 36:44
  Speaker 4: I think Michigan State's in a bounce back after that.
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: That was a bad performance from them against Nebraska last week.
• 36:50
  Speaker 4: Nebraska is not a bad team, though. Michigan State, yes,
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: they did get outgained in the game, but the score
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: was a little bit misleading, too, because they had three turnovers.
• 37:00
  Speaker 4: So they might be able to clean that up here.
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: They lost the turnover battle pretty badly there. So I
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: think Michigan State's in a bounce back, and it is
• 37:07
  Speaker 4: a really bad spot for Wisconsin. And like I already said,
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: the money is strongly agreeing with me on this. Take
• 37:12
  Speaker 4: the points with Michigan State. That's on the card. I
• 37:15
  Speaker 4: know we couldn't get to it at the 10. I
• 37:17
  Speaker 4: would still do it at 9.5, but obviously that's not
• 37:19
  Speaker 4: as good as 10. If the public is going to
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: come in, maybe they'll push this line back up. Unfortunately, though,
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: it looks like the public is not really playing this
• 37:27
  Speaker 4: game that heavily, and there's only a slight public lean
• 37:30
  Speaker 4: towards Wisconsin. Basically, it just looks like all the professional
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: money is on Michigan State. So this line might not
• 37:37
  Speaker 4: go back up, but I think we still do it
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: at 9.5. It's still a great spot to play them.
• 37:41
  Speaker 4: It's still a low total. Better not fucking land on 10, man.
• 37:45
  Speaker 4: That's all I got to say. All right, SEC Network,
• 37:48
  Speaker 4: that's at 12.30 p.m. And that's on Big Ten. SEC
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: Network at 12.45 Eastern. Weird time. Vandy at Georgia, number
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: two Georgia. I believe most of the power ratings guys
• 38:01
  Speaker 4: have Georgia somewhere in the top five now. Probably not
• 38:05
  Speaker 4: actually the second best team, but they're definitely a good team.
• 38:09
  Speaker 4: Vandy just took a loss. They played well at Auburn, actually.
• 38:13
  Speaker 4: I believe Vandy was a big underdog in that game.
• 38:15
  Speaker 4: I think part of it was that Auburn wasn't really
• 38:17
  Speaker 4: in that good of a spot. I think Auburn was
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: sandwiched in between Florida and Tennessee, and Vandy was coming off,
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: we all know, that game where Everybody was making fun
• 38:27
  Speaker 4: of them because the only reason they beat NC State
• 38:29
  Speaker 4: was because NC State fumbled in the end zone when
• 38:33
  Speaker 4: all they had to do was take an intentional safety
• 38:35
  Speaker 4: and they would have won the game pretty much. Just
• 38:37
  Speaker 4: one of the most ridiculous endings you'll ever see. So
• 38:40
  Speaker 4: everybody was talking about how Vandy didn't deserve to win
• 38:42
  Speaker 4: that game. Well, they turned around and they played well
• 38:44
  Speaker 4: against Auburn, but they also caught Auburn in a spot
• 38:47
  Speaker 4: to catch them in, a good spot to catch them in.
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: I had a lean towards Vandy last week. They did cover.
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: But now Vandy's coming off that nice cover, at least.
• 38:56
  Speaker 4: It was their first loss of the season. Now they're
• 38:58
  Speaker 4: playing a second straight road game. Not going to be
• 39:01
  Speaker 4: that easy for Vandy here. I don't really love the
• 39:03
  Speaker 4: spot that Vandy is in here. Although you know that
• 39:06
  Speaker 4: Georgia's going to be laying too many points, though. That's
• 39:08
  Speaker 4: the thing. You're not going to get any value laying
• 39:10
  Speaker 4: points with Georgia here. Georgia's coming off smoking Oklahoma, so
• 39:14
  Speaker 4: they looked really good last week in that win. Oklahoma,
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: very good defensive team. I was shocked that Georgia was
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: able to put up 41 against an Oklahoma team that
• 39:23
  Speaker 4: is definitely a good defense. But there's also another negative
• 39:28
  Speaker 4: for Georgia here because look at who they have now.
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: The team that they can't seem to ever beat, I believe,
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: which is Alabama. Alabama. I believe they usually lose to Alabama, right,
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: if I'm not mistaken. That's a huge game nonetheless, though.
• 39:42
  Speaker 4: I mean, you're talking about two of the top teams
• 39:44
  Speaker 4: in the SEC, big-time rivalry. Georgia might just look past Vandy, man.
• 39:49
  Speaker 4: Georgia's just riding high after annihilating Oklahoma, and huge game
• 39:53
  Speaker 4: against Alabama on deck. So even though Vandy did play
• 39:56
  Speaker 4: well as an underdog last week, I still think Vandy
• 39:58
  Speaker 4: is the right lean in this game. Georgia's very public,
• 40:01
  Speaker 4: 86% of tickets, although 94% of the cash on them,
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: but I would not lay the points with them. They're
• 40:09
  Speaker 4: up 25, 25 and a half now. It opened 24
• 40:11
  Speaker 4: and a half, so it didn't go through any key
• 40:13
  Speaker 4: number here. Um, the total is not that high either
• 40:16
  Speaker 4: at 50 and a half. And I did talk about
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: last week, how Kirby smart with Georgia, he just doesn't
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: cover huge numbers like this against all their sec opponents
• 40:25
  Speaker 4: and whatever, uh, which another reason why I was surprised.
• 40:28
  Speaker 4: And I thought the spot was better for Oklahoma last
• 40:31
  Speaker 4: week to very surprised. Georgia was able to smoke them
• 40:34
  Speaker 4: like that, but it's not really Kirby smarts, uh, MO man.
• 40:37
  Speaker 4: He just doesn't really do that. And I think sometimes
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: he takes his foot off the gas. So, I think
• 40:42
  Speaker 4: Vandy is the lean in that game, but not a
• 40:45
  Speaker 4: strong opinion from me. All right, CBS, as we get
• 40:48
  Speaker 4: into the 330 games here, we have number five, Ohio State,
• 40:51
  Speaker 4: who I think is actually still the number one team
• 40:53
  Speaker 4: in the country, as the power ratings guys will tell you.
• 40:56
  Speaker 4: Pretty much they all have Ohio State number one, man.
• 40:58
  Speaker 4: It's just Ohio State is number five in the rankings
• 41:01
  Speaker 4: just because they blew a game at Texas. Not an
• 41:05
  Speaker 4: easy game, and they almost won the game. They had
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: the game pretty much won, and they blew it. And
• 41:09
  Speaker 4: you're going to knock Ohio State down? From that loss, okay.
• 41:13
  Speaker 4: It's an overreaction, though. And Iowa, I mean, Iowa's definitely tough.
• 41:17
  Speaker 4: Iowa's a very good defensive team. They're probably ranked about
• 41:22
  Speaker 4: appropriately here, around number 14. We know how good they
• 41:25
  Speaker 4: are on defense. Ohio State's the more balanced team, though.
• 41:28
  Speaker 4: Ohio State's still also good on defense, but also their
• 41:31
  Speaker 4: better offense than Iowa is. Now, Iowa is coming off
• 41:34
  Speaker 4: a tough game at Michigan. They went in and they
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: pulled off the upset at Michigan. Now they're having to
• 41:40
  Speaker 4: swing back around, come back home and play another big game.
• 41:43
  Speaker 4: The question is, can they maintain an effort like this
• 41:45
  Speaker 4: after playing a physical defensive game against Michigan, pull off
• 41:48
  Speaker 4: the upset? come back and pull off the upset as
• 41:56
  Speaker 4: well because they were losing later in that game and
• 41:59
  Speaker 4: turn around and do the same, you know, and be
• 42:01
  Speaker 4: able to put in a full game of effort against
• 42:03
  Speaker 4: Ohio State. I'm not sure they're going to be able
• 42:05
  Speaker 4: to do it, man. And Ohio State, I know they'll
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: get up for this game for sure. you're not going
• 42:11
  Speaker 4: to get any value lane points with Ohio state really. Although, well,
• 42:15
  Speaker 4: you know, because this is a ranked versus ranked matchup
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: and the line is really big on Ohio state, maybe
• 42:22
  Speaker 4: you're not going to have to pay, you know, maybe
• 42:24
  Speaker 4: that line isn't that expensive for Iowa state. You know,
• 42:27
  Speaker 4: like the public is not really going to want to
• 42:29
  Speaker 4: lay two touchdowns. That's what, that's what Ohio state is
• 42:31
  Speaker 4: laying here. I think the public might look at this
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: and see, Oh, ranked versus ranked laying two touchdowns on
• 42:37
  Speaker 4: the road might seem pricey to the public. You know
• 42:39
  Speaker 4: what I mean? Um, So, yeah, I think Ohio State
• 42:42
  Speaker 4: is the right side in this game, even though usually
• 42:44
  Speaker 4: you're not going to get value-laying points with them. Ohio
• 42:47
  Speaker 4: State's coming up beating Illinois, and I know Ohio State,
• 42:50
  Speaker 4: their toughest game at Texas, they did lose that game,
• 42:53
  Speaker 4: but they did have a 20-point lead in that game.
• 42:55
  Speaker 4: Other than that, they just haven't had to play anybody good,
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean? And they've annihilated all their
• 42:59
  Speaker 4: other opponents. Illinois, at least, is a Big Ten opponent.
• 43:03
  Speaker 4: I know Illinois is not good, and probably, I think
• 43:06
  Speaker 4: people think that they're better than they even are, but
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: even so... Ohio State's got to keep winning, man, because,
• 43:12
  Speaker 4: of course, they're trying to win a championship here. So,
• 43:15
  Speaker 4: you know, they already have one loss. They can't really
• 43:17
  Speaker 4: afford more losses, man. But they might be able to
• 43:20
  Speaker 4: afford one more loss as a Big Ten team. So
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: I'm going to lean towards Ohio State here. I think
• 43:28
  Speaker 4: the spot sets up better for them. Iowa's coming off
• 43:30
  Speaker 4: a really tough game last week. The tickets are 50-50 here, man,
• 43:35
  Speaker 4: so Ohio State's not even really getting the public attention
• 43:37
  Speaker 4: here in this game. I think because you're laying 14.5 here.
• 43:41
  Speaker 4: I would try to find a 14, though. It looks
• 43:43
  Speaker 4: like you can find a 14 at the Lion Book
• 43:45
  Speaker 4: with the M. It's a bit juiced, but that's what
• 43:49
  Speaker 4: I would do. I would not want to lay the
• 43:50
  Speaker 4: hook on the 14 here, the 14.5, but... You know,
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: this line's not going to go back down. That's the thing,
• 43:57
  Speaker 4: because 71% of the cash on Ohio State, the money
• 44:00
  Speaker 4: is going one way on this towards Ohio State, and
• 44:02
  Speaker 4: the public's not really keeping the game. Yeah, the public
• 44:05
  Speaker 4: is not countering by backing Iowa to a significant degree.
• 44:10
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? So really, I think the
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: real money is just kind of backing Ohio State here,
• 44:14
  Speaker 4: and the public is just kind of split on the
• 44:16
  Speaker 4: game is what it looks like to me here. If
• 44:19
  Speaker 4: you're going to play Ohio State, I would lay the
• 44:21
  Speaker 4: 4th team. I would try to find the 4th team.
• 44:23
  Speaker 4: and not have to lay the hook, pay a little
• 44:25
  Speaker 4: bit of juice for it. But I'm not really, you know,
• 44:30
  Speaker 4: it's not a game that I love. The total's really
• 44:32
  Speaker 4: low in the 40s. So, you know me, I don't
• 44:35
  Speaker 4: love laying double digits with a low total like that either.
• 44:38
  Speaker 4: But I think that is the right side in that game.
• 44:40
  Speaker 4: All right, ABC at 3.30 p.m. This game, this was
• 44:45
  Speaker 4: the first game I left off my card. This game
• 44:47
  Speaker 4: was almost a play for me. Number 8, Florida. Number 25, Missouri.
• 44:52
  Speaker 4: You know what's going on with this. Florida, they went
• 44:55
  Speaker 4: from unranked two weeks ago to being ranked three weeks ago,
• 45:02
  Speaker 4: I should say, to being ranked 21st or whatever going
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: into the game against Ole Miss last week. And I
• 45:08
  Speaker 4: gave you guys Florida last week. And they ran away
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: with the game against Ole Miss later in the game.
• 45:12
  Speaker 4: It was an easy win for us on the show
• 45:14
  Speaker 4: last week. Why did I give that play out, though?
• 45:17
  Speaker 4: It was because Ole Miss was coming off the biggest
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: game that they had on the season, man. They beat
• 45:21
  Speaker 4: Lane Kiffin and LSU. Ole Miss already a big game
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: against LSU, but that was even bigger because Lane Kiffin
• 45:28
  Speaker 4: abandoned Ole Miss prior to the playoffs last year. And
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: a lot of those players stayed at Ole Miss. They
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: had a grudge, man. So Florida caught Ole Miss off
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: of that monster win. Horrible spot for Ole Miss. Florida
• 45:40
  Speaker 4: took advantage of that. Now Florida's got to go further
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: west than they have this year, and they've got to
• 45:45
  Speaker 4: go to Missouri. Yeah, it looks like it's at the
• 45:49
  Speaker 4: very least a letdown spot for Florida here after that
• 45:51
  Speaker 4: huge blowout win over Ole Miss, which makes them look
• 45:54
  Speaker 4: really good. Now they're ranked eighth in the country. Let's
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: dial it back a little bit, man. Yeah, Florida's good. Yeah,
• 46:00
  Speaker 4: they're improved. They've got a first-year coach here, Sumrall, I
• 46:04
  Speaker 4: think is who they have now. He looks good, for sure. Like,
• 46:07
  Speaker 4: Florida looks good under him so far. There's no doubt
• 46:09
  Speaker 4: about that. But, you know, again, I think the stock
• 46:14
  Speaker 4: is too high in Florida right now. I think they
• 46:16
  Speaker 4: might get caught in a weird spot like this. The
• 46:19
  Speaker 4: only problem I have with this is Missouri is also
• 46:22
  Speaker 4: coming off a big game, and that was their first
• 46:24
  Speaker 4: loss of the season, which sometimes can hang you over.
• 46:27
  Speaker 4: But they went to Mississippi State. They had a tough game.
• 46:29
  Speaker 4: I think that game was tied. Late in the game,
• 46:31
  Speaker 4: tough game at Mississippi State, man. Took the loss. Now
• 46:34
  Speaker 4: they have to turn around and play another big game,
• 46:37
  Speaker 4: two games in a row like this year. Although Florida
• 46:40
  Speaker 4: does too. Both teams are playing huge games back-to-back here.
• 46:44
  Speaker 4: And Florida was the team that looked really, really impressive
• 46:47
  Speaker 4: last week. And I think they're being overranked at this point, man.
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: Is Florida a top 25 team? Yes. I would say yes.
• 46:53
  Speaker 4: They definitely are. I like the power ratings, guys. I
• 46:56
  Speaker 4: believe would tell you that. Are they the eighth best
• 46:59
  Speaker 4: team in the country? No, I don't believe they are.
• 47:04
  Speaker 4: Is Missouri the 25th? Because that's where they're ranked. You know,
• 47:07
  Speaker 4: I'm not so sure. Missouri, I mean, I know they
• 47:10
  Speaker 4: lost their quarterback coming into this year. They haven't been
• 47:13
  Speaker 4: that impressive this year. But as far as the spot,
• 47:16
  Speaker 4: I think the only way to play this game is
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: to take the points with Missouri still. This one almost
• 47:20
  Speaker 4: made the cut for me. I think it's a massive
• 47:22
  Speaker 4: letdown for Florida at the very least. 83% of tickets,
• 47:26
  Speaker 4: 77% of the cash on Florida. They did move up
• 47:29
  Speaker 4: from a four point favorite to five and a half,
• 47:31
  Speaker 4: six here now. Um, although it looks like the Vegas
• 47:35
  Speaker 4: sharp lean, if you want to call it, is actually
• 47:37
  Speaker 4: a favorite Florida there, but I don't know about that.
• 47:40
  Speaker 4: I mean, Florida looks like a very public side with
• 47:42
  Speaker 4: less of a money on them. I think Missouri is
• 47:44
  Speaker 4: the right side in that game. Taking the points with Missouri. Um,
• 47:50
  Speaker 4: Almost a play for me. All right, next game up
• 47:52
  Speaker 4: is one of my plays. We're going to take the
• 47:58
  Speaker 4: points with Auburn here against Tennessee on ESPN at 3.30 p.m.
• 48:03
  Speaker 4: Find a seven on this, man. Hopefully you'll be able
• 48:05
  Speaker 4: to because Tennessee is a public side here, very public.
• 48:08
  Speaker 4: 86% of tickets on them, 71% of the cash on them.
• 48:12
  Speaker 4: They opened basically around seven, and it's kind of been
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: teetering around seven, six and a half. But the good
• 48:17
  Speaker 4: thing about that, and I found a seven, by the way,
• 48:19
  Speaker 4: that was juiced at about minus 115. It was at
• 48:21
  Speaker 4: the F book that's the shoddy merchandiser. I would wait
• 48:26
  Speaker 4: if you can't find the 7 right now. Wait and
• 48:29
  Speaker 4: hope that the line goes back up to 7, man.
• 48:31
  Speaker 4: Because the public's going to get involved tomorrow in this game,
• 48:35
  Speaker 4: and they're going to be on Tennessee here, especially after
• 48:37
  Speaker 4: what they saw last week. So I would wait, try
• 48:40
  Speaker 4: to get the 7. I mean, 7's a very key number,
• 48:42
  Speaker 4: so you've got to try to get the 7 here,
• 48:43
  Speaker 4: even if you pay a little bit of juice for it.
• 48:45
  Speaker 4: I was able to find one already, so hopefully you'll
• 48:48
  Speaker 4: be able to do that. I'd still play it at 6.5
• 48:51
  Speaker 4: because I like the spot a lot, and the fact
• 48:54
  Speaker 4: that this line has not moved... like despite the fact
• 48:57
  Speaker 4: the public is all over Tennessee right the fact this
• 49:00
  Speaker 4: line has not moved and it looks like it's begging
• 49:02
  Speaker 4: you to take Tennessee you know what I mean I
• 49:04
  Speaker 4: think that's a red flag as far as Tennessee is
• 49:07
  Speaker 4: concerned when the odds makers are they know they're getting
• 49:09
  Speaker 4: all this public action on Tennessee and they just go
• 49:12
  Speaker 4: nah and we're just gonna leave it at six and
• 49:15
  Speaker 4: a half here it just looks so inviting to lay
• 49:18
  Speaker 4: that with Tennessee right to label a touchdown with them.
• 49:21
  Speaker 4: And the odds makers know that. And they're just okay
• 49:24
  Speaker 4: with taking all these tickets on Tennessee, right? That tells
• 49:27
  Speaker 4: you something. That tells you they think there's a decent
• 49:29
  Speaker 4: chance Auburn's going to get within that number there or
• 49:32
  Speaker 4: maybe even possibly win the game. And I think there
• 49:35
  Speaker 4: are some reasons for it. Of course, the public's on
• 49:37
  Speaker 4: Tennessee because they're a ranked team here. They're at home.
• 49:40
  Speaker 4: But what did they do last week? yeah, they took
• 49:42
  Speaker 4: their first loss of the season. And again, I said,
• 49:45
  Speaker 4: sometimes that will hang you over into the next game.
• 49:47
  Speaker 4: They took that first loss, but who was it against?
• 49:49
  Speaker 4: And what did that game look like? Oh yeah. It
• 49:51
  Speaker 4: was against number one in the country, Texas. So I
• 49:54
  Speaker 4: don't think it's actually the number one team and Tennessee
• 49:58
  Speaker 4: played them really tight, man. It was a three point
• 50:00
  Speaker 4: win for Texas. Although yes, Texas was winning by 10
• 50:04
  Speaker 4: late in the game. And you could argue that last
• 50:06
  Speaker 4: touchdown was cosmetic for Tennessee because they did need a, uh,
• 50:09
  Speaker 4: an onsite kick basically. Um, which, correct me if I'm wrong,
• 50:14
  Speaker 4: but I think they actually recovered the onside kick because
• 50:16
  Speaker 4: I heard people freaking out about what was going on
• 50:18
  Speaker 4: in this game. I think they might have recovered it,
• 50:21
  Speaker 4: the onside kick, and then somehow still blew the game.
• 50:23
  Speaker 4: Either way, though, they cut it to three with a
• 50:26
  Speaker 4: minute 22 left. It was a good-looking performance from Tennessee, man,
• 50:30
  Speaker 4: and the public loves teams that look good in a
• 50:32
  Speaker 4: loss like that. Oh, hey, Tennessee, they almost knocked off
• 50:36
  Speaker 4: the number one team in the country. This Tennessee team, man.
• 50:39
  Speaker 4: They're good. That's what the public is going to say.
• 50:41
  Speaker 4: And they're not going to pay much attention to Auburn.
• 50:43
  Speaker 4: And Tennessee might not pay much attention to Auburn either.
• 50:46
  Speaker 4: Even though they're 3-1. But we've seen Auburn in the
• 50:48
  Speaker 4: last couple of years be a very mediocre team. Not
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: much of a threat in the SEC recently. And they're
• 50:53
  Speaker 4: coming off a game where they only beat Vandy by 6.
• 50:56
  Speaker 4: And this is a Vandy team that's down this year
• 50:58
  Speaker 4: after they lost Pavia. and whatever. Auburn was a big
• 51:01
  Speaker 4: favorite in that game and didn't play that well and
• 51:03
  Speaker 4: only won by six. Although Auburn had a bigger lead
• 51:06
  Speaker 4: late in the game. Vandy actually kind of scored, not cosmetically,
• 51:10
  Speaker 4: but they scored to cut it to six late in
• 51:12
  Speaker 4: the game. After going into the fourth quarter, Auburn was
• 51:15
  Speaker 4: up 12 in this game and Vandy scored twice in
• 51:17
  Speaker 4: the fourth quarter. Luckily for Auburn, it was only field goals,
• 51:20
  Speaker 4: or at least Auburn held them to field goals at least.
• 51:23
  Speaker 4: Now one thing that does worry me though is that
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: Vandy really outpossessed Auburn in this game so Auburn got
• 51:28
  Speaker 4: dominated in the possession battle here and the yards was
• 51:31
  Speaker 4: close but still what you can determine from this game
• 51:35
  Speaker 4: though the one thing is Auburn was a big favorite
• 51:37
  Speaker 4: and they almost they didn't almost well they did almost
• 51:40
  Speaker 4: lose you know. They're a 10-point favorite, and they're only
• 51:43
  Speaker 4: up six in the final six minutes of the game.
• 51:45
  Speaker 4: So Auburn was really tooth and nail in the remainder
• 51:50
  Speaker 4: of that game there. So yes, I think Auburn does
• 51:53
  Speaker 4: qualify as a team that was a big favorite that
• 51:55
  Speaker 4: almost got upset, and they should be focused more here.
• 51:58
  Speaker 4: And again, what did I say about that game last week?
• 52:00
  Speaker 4: Not only was Vandy being made fun of because of
• 52:05
  Speaker 4: their loss to NC State on that ridiculous fumble in
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: the end zone, um or Vandy won I mean it
• 52:11
  Speaker 4: was the the only the only reason they won was
• 52:13
  Speaker 4: because the fumble in the end zone so I think
• 52:14
  Speaker 4: Vandy was motivated but uh in that game against Auburn
• 52:18
  Speaker 4: but Auburn had that game sandwiched in between Florida and
• 52:21
  Speaker 4: Tennessee as well so I think it was kind of
• 52:23
  Speaker 4: a sandwich for Auburn that game was close to making
• 52:25
  Speaker 4: the cut for me last week too um on Vandy
• 52:29
  Speaker 4: covering but now I'm on the other side here I
• 52:31
  Speaker 4: like Auburn the money's agreeing on this as Tennessee's just
• 52:35
  Speaker 4: Very public in this one. Find the seven on this.
• 52:38
  Speaker 4: Take Auburn plus the points. Mr. Pinsey, what's up? Yes,
• 52:42
  Speaker 4: we're fading the public. You know me, I like to
• 52:45
  Speaker 4: fade the public. I'm fading the public with all four
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: of my plays here. So at least to some extent,
• 52:50
  Speaker 4: although I think in one of them, well, the one
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: that I talked with, the public was kind of split,
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: I think, on one of the games I already talked about, though.
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: All right, CBS Sports at 3.30. We have Cal at UNLV.
• 53:02
  Speaker 4: I have no clue what to do with this game.
• 53:04
  Speaker 4: UNLV's not good, I'll tell you that, even though they're 2-2.
• 53:08
  Speaker 4: They won fairly impressively at Hawaii. I'll give them that,
• 53:12
  Speaker 4: but they have not been impressive otherwise. They played okay
• 53:14
  Speaker 4: against Memphis, I guess, in the first game. Memphis did
• 53:18
  Speaker 4: upset them, and then UNLV most recently... Third straight road game,
• 53:22
  Speaker 4: at least, so give them credit for being able to
• 53:24
  Speaker 4: battle through that situation. They beat Akron. I mean, Akron's
• 53:27
  Speaker 4: a Mac team. They're not very good. I'm not sold
• 53:31
  Speaker 4: on this UNLV team. They're back at home against Cal.
• 53:34
  Speaker 4: UNLV is actually favored in this game. Cal's the power
• 53:38
  Speaker 4: conference team, though. Cal, you know, they went back home.
• 53:41
  Speaker 4: It was a bad game for them. Everybody saw it.
• 53:43
  Speaker 4: They looked really bad against Clemson. That was a loss
• 53:45
  Speaker 4: for me on the show. I got to stop giving
• 53:47
  Speaker 4: out these. Usually I'm good on these Friday night games, too,
• 53:50
  Speaker 4: these primetime games. I don't know what the fuck, man.
• 53:52
  Speaker 4: I thought that was a bad spot for Clemson, having
• 53:54
  Speaker 4: to go all the way to the Pacific Coast with
• 53:57
  Speaker 4: a big game on deck. Clemson had a Miami look
• 53:59
  Speaker 4: ahead as well, which I haven't talked about the Clemson-Miami
• 54:03
  Speaker 4: game yet that's happening this week. But, yeah, I thought
• 54:05
  Speaker 4: it was a good spot, and Cal was terrible in
• 54:08
  Speaker 4: the game. There's no other way to put it. They
• 54:11
  Speaker 4: were horrible. In this game, Clemson dominated them. They outscored them, whatever.
• 54:17
  Speaker 4: I think this might be a bounce back for Cal
• 54:18
  Speaker 4: though here after a game like that. Cal's the more
• 54:21
  Speaker 4: battle-tested team here. They played UCLA, had to go to
• 54:24
  Speaker 4: Syracuse on the road. That was kind of a misleading
• 54:27
  Speaker 4: win that they pulled off there, but they still were
• 54:28
  Speaker 4: able to win that game. UNLV, I believe they have
• 54:31
  Speaker 4: not played a power conference team yet, right? No, they
• 54:33
  Speaker 4: have not. So Cal's more battle-tested here. I don't trust UNLV.
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: I would lean Cal here. The money seems to agree.
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: 63% of tickets, 53% of the cash in UNLV. They're
• 54:44
  Speaker 4: about a two and a half point favorite. It almost
• 54:46
  Speaker 4: looks too easy in a way to lay less than
• 54:49
  Speaker 4: a field goal with the UNLV team. And everybody kind of,
• 54:51
  Speaker 4: I think, has this decent perception of because they've looked
• 54:54
  Speaker 4: pretty good in the Mountain West. Cal has not looked
• 54:57
  Speaker 4: particularly good. So those are my thoughts there. ACC Network
• 55:02
  Speaker 4: also at 330. Louisville at NC State. NC State, you know,
• 55:07
  Speaker 4: I mean, they've looked bad, dude. What else can we say?
• 55:10
  Speaker 4: They got blown out by Virginia first game of the season,
• 55:12
  Speaker 4: and then they should have beaten Vandy. They were leading
• 55:15
  Speaker 4: Vandy that whole game, and then again, Bailey, their quarterback,
• 55:19
  Speaker 4: fumbled in the end zone, took a sack, when all
• 55:22
  Speaker 4: you got to do is run to the back of
• 55:24
  Speaker 4: the end zone, and at worst... take a safety in
• 55:28
  Speaker 4: some way, get knocked out of the back of the
• 55:29
  Speaker 4: end zone or fumble out of the back of the
• 55:31
  Speaker 4: end zone. That's all you got to do, and you're
• 55:32
  Speaker 4: probably going to win that game against Vandy. Nope, he
• 55:36
  Speaker 4: wasn't able to do that, although NC State did bounce
• 55:38
  Speaker 4: back last week with a win over App State. NC State,
• 55:41
  Speaker 4: I believe, did not cover, though. App State is the
• 55:43
  Speaker 4: little brother in state, was able to cover that number
• 55:47
  Speaker 4: against NC State. NC State staying at home off of that.
• 55:51
  Speaker 4: This will be a big game for them against Louisville,
• 55:53
  Speaker 4: but Louisville... Dude, I think the rankings makers, they just
• 55:57
  Speaker 4: overreact way too much. Like Louisville, they've played a pretty
• 56:01
  Speaker 4: difficult schedule so far. They've played Ole Miss, SMU, and
• 56:04
  Speaker 4: even Wake isn't really that much of a pushover here.
• 56:07
  Speaker 4: Even FCS Villanova is not that bad of a team.
• 56:09
  Speaker 4: So Louisville, fairly difficult schedule for them so far. And
• 56:13
  Speaker 4: the fact that they dropped from, what were they last week?
• 56:16
  Speaker 4: Like ranked 16th? Yeah, 16th. They dropped completely out of
• 56:19
  Speaker 4: the rankings. I know I said that about Penn State
• 56:22
  Speaker 4: tonight too, but... To me, I think that's a little
• 56:25
  Speaker 4: bit of an overreaction when you get knocked out of
• 56:28
  Speaker 4: the rankings. you know, to that extent because of a
• 56:32
  Speaker 4: close loss. And remember, Louisville was a big favorite in
• 56:35
  Speaker 4: this game. What do I always say? When you have
• 56:37
  Speaker 4: a big favorite, double-digit favorite, loses the game outright, I
• 56:41
  Speaker 4: think they have a tendency to bounce back in the
• 56:43
  Speaker 4: next game. So I like Louisville in this game. And
• 56:46
  Speaker 4: I like them more because it's also an injured player
• 56:49
  Speaker 4: theory spot, as I was alluding to, even though I
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: don't think he came out of the game, kind holes
• 56:53
  Speaker 4: or whatever, Louisville's quarterback in that last game. I don't
• 56:56
  Speaker 4: think he's playing in this game because you can see
• 56:58
  Speaker 4: this number has dropped big time. Louisville was going to
• 57:01
  Speaker 4: be a six point favorite and they're only three, three
• 57:03
  Speaker 4: and a half. I'm pretty sure that's because of the
• 57:05
  Speaker 4: quarterback situation. So I believe it is going to be
• 57:08
  Speaker 4: a backup quarterback for Louisville. But what do I always say?
• 57:11
  Speaker 4: When the first game, when that backup quarterback comes in,
• 57:14
  Speaker 4: the team usually steps up their level of play. Um,
• 57:18
  Speaker 4: because they know they have to with that backup QB.
• 57:21
  Speaker 4: In addition, they're already going to be incentivized to play
• 57:24
  Speaker 4: well because they took that loss to Wake Forest, and
• 57:26
  Speaker 4: I think teams do tend to bounce back off a
• 57:29
  Speaker 4: loss like that. Is that a dream crusher for Louisville?
• 57:33
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man. They took a second loss, but
• 57:35
  Speaker 4: it was only their first conference loss. No, I don't
• 57:38
  Speaker 4: think it's a dream crusher. Their goal basically is to
• 57:42
  Speaker 4: try to win the ACC this year, get to the
• 57:44
  Speaker 4: ACC championship and play Miami. You know what I mean?
• 57:47
  Speaker 4: They could still do that. So I think Louisville is
• 57:50
  Speaker 4: not dream-crushed. I think they will be able to continue.
• 57:54
  Speaker 4: Maybe you could argue their goal was to make the playoff,
• 57:57
  Speaker 4: and maybe that's out of the question now, but still
• 57:59
  Speaker 4: I don't actually think it's a dream-crusher for them yet.
• 58:03
  Speaker 4: So I like it to be a positive spot for them.
• 58:05
  Speaker 4: I like Louisville as the better team being more focused
• 58:09
  Speaker 4: here in the bounce-back spot and the injured player spot. However,
• 58:13
  Speaker 4: it is their first true road game, though. So you
• 58:16
  Speaker 4: do have to worry about that a little bit. And
• 58:17
  Speaker 4: the public is all over Louisville. 89% of tickets and
• 58:21
  Speaker 4: only 83% of the cash on them. So the thing
• 58:23
  Speaker 4: about college, though, is I think the interplayer theory works
• 58:26
  Speaker 4: better in the NFL because the public knows about it.
• 58:30
  Speaker 4: Whereas in college, I think the public just doesn't even know.
• 58:32
  Speaker 4: They're just like, oh, yeah, Louisville. They're the better team here.
• 58:35
  Speaker 4: NC State's looked so bad in the public's eye with
• 58:38
  Speaker 4: that end zone fumble and getting blown out by Virginia
• 58:41
  Speaker 4: and the highly publicized games that NC State has had
• 58:44
  Speaker 4: so far. So the public does not want NC State.
• 58:48
  Speaker 4: 89% of tickets, 83% of the cash on Louisville, like
• 58:51
  Speaker 4: I said. I still think you're getting value with Louisville, though.
• 58:54
  Speaker 4: I think the Lions overreacted to the injury, unless we
• 58:58
  Speaker 4: see that Kynos is coming back. But even then, Kynos
• 59:02
  Speaker 4: didn't miss, I don't think he missed like any time
• 59:04
  Speaker 4: in the last game, or if he did, they didn't
• 59:07
  Speaker 4: throw the ball after he was out of the game
• 59:09
  Speaker 4: last week, but what I will say is that Louisville,
• 59:11
  Speaker 4: I think they can overcome a quarterback injury more easily
• 59:14
  Speaker 4: than some teams can because Louisville is more of a
• 59:16
  Speaker 4: rushing attack. Their best offensive player is their running back. Isaac,
• 59:21
  Speaker 4: what the hell is his name again? Brown, something like that?
• 59:24
  Speaker 5: Let me see.
• 59:25
  Speaker 4: He's their best offensive player, so I think they can
• 59:27
  Speaker 4: switch quarterbacks and not have that much of a downer. Yeah,
• 59:30
  Speaker 4: Isaac Brown, he's their best player. So, yeah, that's what
• 59:35
  Speaker 4: I got to say about that. I'm actually disagreeing with
• 59:37
  Speaker 4: the market read in that one and agreeing with the
• 59:41
  Speaker 4: really square public side in that one with Louisville. I
• 59:45
  Speaker 4: don't like when I agree with that, man, but that's
• 59:47
  Speaker 4: certainly nowhere close to being a play for me. All right,
• 59:50
  Speaker 4: Virginia at Florida State on ESPN2. This is a weird one, man.
• 59:54
  Speaker 4: It's an interesting game. It's a toss-up line here. Florida
• 59:58
  Speaker 4: State's played a difficult schedule so far, kind of. I mean,
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 4: they played two pretty difficult opponents in their power conference
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 4: matchups so far against SMU and Alabama. Those are their
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 4: two losses, but they played competitively against both of them, really.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 4: They lost a real close game to SMU at home,
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 4: and then on the road, they only lost by 14
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 4: at Alabama. That's pretty impressive, actually, for Florida State to
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 4: be able to do that, and Alabama had some you know,
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 4: revenge in mind after Florida State dealt Alabama that highly
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 4: publicized loss in week one last year. So I don't know.
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 4: Florida State was able to bounce back with a win
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 4: over an FCS team last week, Central Arkansas. So I
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 4: think that's good because I think that gives you some
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 4: momentum moving forward. You know, beating an FCS team won't
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 4: make you overconfident, but it'll give you some new momentum
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 4: coming into the next game. And yeah, Florida State does
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 4: have Louisville next, whatever. But remember last year, I gave
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 4: out Virginia as a play, if you remember, on a
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 4: Friday night game when Florida State was still ranked and
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 4: Virginia was not ranked yet. I gave you guys Virginia
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 4: in that crazy game where Virginia pulled off that upset
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 4: at home on that Friday night game against Florida State
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 4: last year. Double overtime back on September 26th. So I
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 4: think Florida State has an extra incentive here because it's
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 4: going to be a revenge spot for them. I think
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 4: that was a highly publicized game. Everyone remembers that. So
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 4: I think Florida State's going to remember that. Going into Virginia,
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 4: and that was the game that kind of knocked Florida
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 4: State's season out of whack last year. Florida State's going
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 4: to remember that, man. They're going to want revenge against
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 4: Virginia here. So that plus I think it's a positive
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 4: spot for them. It's not really a negative for Virginia
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 4: necessarily either. I mean, they had an easy win over
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 4: Delaware last week in a bounce back spot for Virginia
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 4: after they lost as a big favorite against West Virginia.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 4: I think Virginia took out their frustrations against Delaware. But
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 4: now this will be Virginia's first true road game going
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 4: to Florida State. So that's not that easy either. So
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 4: I like Florida State in this one. in what I
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 4: think is a revenge spot and a slightly better situational
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 4: spot for them. Money seems to have a slight disagreement
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 4: with it, though. 53% of tickets on Florida State, 56%
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 4: of the cash on Virginia. Virginia is about a 1.5
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 4: point favor. They actually opened 2.5, and it's dropped a
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 4: little bit. I like Florida State in that one, though.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 4: That would be my opinion there. All right, Wyoming, North
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 4: Dakota State on the CW. North Dakota State, you can't
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 4: even click the link to look at them. What the
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 4: fuck is going on with ESPN's website, man? North Dakota State,
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 4: there's no link for them? What are we talking about here?
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 4: What are we doing? Now, it's going to be a
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 4: weird spot for Wyoming because North Dakota State, of course,
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 4: is new to FBS. So there is that. So a
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 4: little bit of a weird spot for any team that
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 4: has to travel there. And North Dakota State's looked good
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 4: so far, man. This Wyoming team, I'm not sure how
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 4: good they really are. They just got their first FBS
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 4: win against Hawaii with Hawaii coming to the mainland. And
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 4: we know Hawaii doesn't do particularly well in a scenario
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 4: like that. North Dakota State, you still can't click on
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 4: the link here. North Dakota State's looking good in their
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 4: first FBS season at 4-0. And I believe North Dakota
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 4: State is coming off a bye. Can we tell? Let
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 4: me see. I believe they are, but they went into
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 4: a bye on a good note. Let me see. Did
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 4: they have a bye? Yes, they did. But they went
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 4: into the bye on a 4-0 note. You know what
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 4: I mean? That's a bad time to have a bye. Now,
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 4: North Dakota State, they... You know, it was impressive they
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 4: went into Air Force and won that game. I wasn't
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 4: sure they'd be able to do that in high elevation.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 4: That's their best win, in my opinion. Then after that,
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 4: they beat a very bad Sacramento State team who couldn't
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 4: even hang with UMass last week. That Sacramento State team
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 4: is real bad. Speaking of new teams to the FBS,
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 4: I think Sacramento State is the worst team at FBS.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 4: They're absolutely horrible. But North Dakota State, I don't think
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 4: it's a positive that they had a bye with a
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 4: 4-0 record. Like, when you're rolling like this, you want
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 4: to keep playing. You do not want to have a
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 4: bye that can stall your momentum out. So I actually
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 4: think it's a negative that North Dakota State had a
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 4: bye last week. So I'm actually going to lean Wyoming,
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 4: plus the points here in this one. North Dakota State
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 4: is public. 82% of tickets, 88% of the cash on them.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 4: They already dropped from a 20-point favorite to 17.5 now. Luckily,
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 4: that's not that key of a number there. 17 is key,
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 4: of course. I think you can still get 17.5 on this,
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 4: and it's a low total, 44.5, and you know, I
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 4: like taking underdogs, and it's a really low total like
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 4: that when you have a big dog like that, and
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 4: the money's coming in towards the under in that game
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 4: as well, so yeah, I like Wyoming in that one
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 4: to some extent.
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: Alright.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 4: Skipping over some of these other games that are just ass.
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 4: I mean, UMass is hilariously 4-0, and they're favored again
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 4: this time. I mean, I think I'm just going to
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 4: say I think the stock is too high in UMass.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 4: I would not be laying points with you ass. I
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 4: would not be. Dude, I mean, I'm just talking about
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 4: them because they're hyped right now. Yeah, because they had
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 4: that huge upset over Rutgers. Everybody knows that. But what
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 4: have they done since then? They beat two FCS teams
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 4: that aren't even good ones, I don't think. Sacred Heart
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 4: and Stonehill, which is another Massachusetts school, by the way.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 4: And then they, you know, I thought it was a
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 4: weird spot going to California for UMass. They performed way
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 4: better than I thought they would at Sacramento State, but
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 4: that is still a really bad Sacramento State team. So, yeah,
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 4: I'm still not buying UMass. They might make a bowl.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 4: You know, they only need to get two more wins
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 4: to make a bowl, and they play in the fucking MAAC,
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 4: so they do have a chance to do that. They
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 4: play some really bad teams here in the MAAC, including
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 4: getting a home game against Ball State, but still. Yeah,
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man. UMass is playing Eastern Michigan this week. Well,
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 4: since I'm talking about it, I guess I'll look at
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 4: the market read on it. UMass is extremely public. The
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 4: hype is real on UMass, man. It's ridiculous. They're still ass.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 4: They're still one of the bottom 10 teams in FBS, man.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 4: Don't be fooled. 91% of tickets, 94% of the cash
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 4: on UMass. They're ridiculously public. Five and a half points
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 4: spread against Eastern Michigan. Low total here as well in
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 4: the 40s. High 40s. I would only take the points
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 4: with Eastern Michigan in that one. And nobody's going to
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 4: want to. Eastern Michigan's already played five games, but they're
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 4: fairly battle-tested. I mean, they played Michigan State and Wisconsin,
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 4: and people are going to see the common opponent. Eastern Michigan, oh,
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 4: Eastern Michigan only won by 11 at home against Sacramento State.
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 4: UMass went to Sacramento State and beat them by 30-plus. So,
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 4: of course, UMass is going to blow out Eastern Michigan now. Nope,
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 4: that's not the way it works, man. Um, I'm sorry.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 4: And Eastern Michigan bounce. They should be in a bounce back, uh,
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 4: spot ish sort of, well, they bounced back last week
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 4: with a win over FCS Lindenwood. So that should give
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 4: them a little bit of positive momentum coming off of that.
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I think UMass is massively there. You massively overhyped.
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 4: All right. Um, ESPN you at 3 45 PM Eastern. Uh,
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 4: that game is not televised, but it's on ESPN plus
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 4: the UMass game. I just thought it was interesting. Um,
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 4: somewhat Marshall at James Madison on ESPN, you at three,
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 4: three 45 PM Eastern James Madison, four, no start, even
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 4: though they lost another head coach, they're still off to
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 4: a four, no start. Uh, they went to San Diego
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 4: state and beat them, but I'll explain why they did. Um,
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 4: in a minute. Well, when I talk about San Diego state,
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 4: I'll explain it, which also, uh, will involve me explaining the,
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 4: the cryptic title to the show. If you don't know
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 4: what's going on. Um, That's related. JMU is coming off
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 4: smoking their in-state little brother Old Dominion last week as well.
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 4: Maybe JMU looks a little bit too good now after
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 4: all that. Teams in the Sun Belt are going to
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 4: be gunning for JMU because they won the conference last year.
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 4: They made the playoffs last year, although obviously they didn't
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 4: do well in the playoffs, but still they made the playoffs.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 4: There's going to be a target on their back. Maybe
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 4: they're a little bit overrated. Marshall... Marshall played Penn State.
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 4: They got destroyed early in the season against Penn State,
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 4: first game. We now know Penn State's not that good.
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 4: And that is what worries me, because Marshall has not
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 4: looked good since then. Marshall has barely beaten MTSU, Missouri State,
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 4: and Gardner-Webb last week, an FCS team. So this Marshall team, yeah,
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 4: they're 3-1, but when they're consistently playing bad against bad opponents... Yeah,
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 4: that's not really a team that I want to back,
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 4: even though last week, almost losing to Gardner-Webb. You've got
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 4: to think it's going to at least have Marshall focused
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 4: after that. They were 24.5-point favorites, and they almost lost
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 4: this game. I mean, that's ridiculous. They were losing the
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 4: game in the fourth quarter by eight. They had to
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 4: score twice. They had to win on basically a walk-off
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 4: field goal at the end of the game, whatever you
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 4: want to call it, last-second field goal. So, technically that's
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 4: a spot where I would want to look towards Marshall
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 4: coming off a game like that, whereas James Madison might
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 4: be feeling pretty high after crushing Old Dominion in an
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 4: in-state rivalry type of game. Although James Madison's the bigger
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 4: brother there. James Madison is public here. 85% of tickets,
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 4: 93% of the cash on them. So cash, I guess,
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 4: coming in on them too. And it's driven that line
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 4: through the key number of 17 all the way up
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 4: to 18.5. I think I'd lean towards taking the points
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 4: with Marshall, man. Um, you know, just given what the
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 4: spot looks like, but can we really do it with
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 4: how bad Marshall's looked in every, every single week? Marshall's
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 4: look terrible though. So it wasn't just last week. So
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 4: I don't think I could do it. I don't think
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 4: I can. Um, I mean, I know I can't definitely,
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 4: that game's not even close to a play for me,
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 4: but yeah. Um, talking about it cause it's a TV game. Um,
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 4: and it's, it is kind of interesting. Maryland at Nebraska,
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 4: 4 p.m. Eastern, Fox Sports 1. Nebraska looked really good
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 4: last week against Michigan State. Blew them out. First road
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 4: game for Nebraska. Nebraska's not really tested yet, though. And
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 4: they do have a look ahead. They have Indiana next
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 4: and then Oregon after that. So Nebraska has two pretty
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 4: big games coming up on the horizon. It's going to
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 4: be pretty easy for them to overlook Maryland in a
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 4: spot like this. Nebraska looked really good last week. They
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 4: got a big game on deck. Maryland could not have
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 4: looked worse last week. I thought it was a good
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 4: spot for them to catch UCLA having to go to
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 4: the East Coast. UCLA beat them by 51 points, man. 54-3.
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 4: How could you possibly look worse than Maryland did there?
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 4: Even though Maryland, yeah, they do have Ohio State next,
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 4: but you're not going to overlook anybody after you've lost
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 4: two games like that. And while Maryland, I know they
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 4: have not stepped up well in class so far. I
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 4: get it. They lost both power conference games so far
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 4: to Virginia Tech and UCLA, but they were at least
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 4: competitive against Virginia Tech, so... I still don't think this
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 4: Maryland team, they're at least not as bad as what
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 4: they looked like last week. Let's just put it that way. Yes,
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 4: they got completely manhandled in the box score, but it
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 4: was still, the score was still misleading because Maryland was
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 4: minus three in turnovers. They had five turnovers. So yes,
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 4: they got blown out in the box score too, but
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 4: not by 51 points worth. You know what I mean?
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 4: It's always going to be misleading when you lose by
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 4: that much. So yeah, The only way that I'd be
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 4: able to play this game is Maryland. It's the classic.
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 4: You play the team that looked as bad as possible
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 4: last week against the team that basically looked as good
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 4: as possible last week. You know what I mean? No
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 4: team is ever as bad as they look in their
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 4: worst game, and no team is ever as good as
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 4: they look in their best. You know what I mean?
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 4: And you look at the number here. It's gone up
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 4: from 13.5 to 14, 14.5. So it has gone through
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 4: that key number of 14.5. Still looks pretty easy to
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 4: take Nebraska or lay the points with Nebraska here. That
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 4: line does seem a little bit low given what we
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 4: saw last week. So Nebraska is definitely a public side.
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 4: 75% of tickets, only 70% of the cash on them.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 4: Total's not that high in the low 50s. I would
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 4: take the points with Maryland if I was going to
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 4: play that one. Don't want to do it though. All right,
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 4: so then we have, let's see. SEC Network at 4.15 p.m. Again,
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 4: if you want me to quickly talk about one of
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 4: these other games, I can, but I'm trying to keep
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 4: this as not that long of a show. I'm trying
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 4: not to go two and a half hours this time, man,
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 4: especially coming back home from the Smashing Pumpkins and doing
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 4: this show like an hour later than I usually do.
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 4: I got to sleep, man. I still have to do
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 4: the show in the morning, but luckily we don't have
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 4: that much to do on the show in the morning.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 4: It's just four baseball games this time, I think.
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 4: Number 24, Kentucky at South Carolina on the SEC Network.
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 4: And you will notice, and this game's at 4.15 p.m. Eastern,
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 4: you will notice this is one of those classic spots
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 4: that the handicappers like where you have an unranked favorite
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 4: against a ranked underdog. So South Carolina is unranked, and
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 4: they're favored against Kentucky here. Although Kentucky is barely in
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 4: the rankings, 24, and they're on the road here. The
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 4: oddsmakers are basically telling you these teams are about even here.
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 4: Do I want to lay it with South Carolina, though?
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 4: I might lean that way, but it's certainly not going
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 4: to make the cut for me. I know there are
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 4: some professionals that will almost blindly just go, oh, you know,
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 4: unranked favorite against the ranked road opponent in basketball and football,
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 4: they'll do it. That is a strategy. I mean, I
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 4: think it is profitable over the last few years, but
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 4: I think it's been getting a little bit less profitable
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 4: more recently, but the last several years, I think it
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 4: has been profitable. Now, for Kentucky... We faded them last week,
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 4: and I'm pissed. I think we should have had the
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 4: cover last week with South Alabama. South Alabama was right
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 4: in that game. It was tied at halftime or a
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 4: three-point game at halftime. Kentucky was in a bad spot
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 4: because they pulled off the big upset at Texas A
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 4: & M the game before that. They had another SEC
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 4: opponent coming up this week against South Carolina. So I
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 4: thought they would look right past South Alabama. For the
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 4: first half, it was looking real good. And just like
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 4: with UTEP against or yeah, UTEP against Michigan, just total
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 4: implosion in the second half. I don't know what happened. Um,
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 4: but Kentucky still didn't play that well in that game.
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? I still think they overlooked
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 4: South Alabama and we just didn't get the cover there.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 4: So there is a reason why maybe Kentucky will show up, um,
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 4: for this game. Cause it is an sec game, but
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 4: they do have LSU next. So there is the possible
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 4: look ahead there to LSU, man. Um, for Kentucky there.
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 4: So there is that. Kentucky did look good on the road, though.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 4: They beat A & M on the road a couple
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 4: weeks ago. So although A & M' s fallen out of
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 4: the rankings now, I think A & M should be ranked, though,
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 4: in my opinion. But I'll talk about them when I
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 4: get to them if they're one of these bigger games,
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 4: which I think they are. So yeah, what do we
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 4: do here? Is Kentucky going to be looking ahead to LSU?
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 4: I don't know. South Carolina's 2-2 and unranked, so it
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 4: does look weird that they're a favorite here. South Carolina
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 4: just got blown out by Alabama last week. They're coming
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 4: off two big games in a row against Mississippi State
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 4: and Alabama, but getting blown out like that against Alabama,
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 4: sometimes you do bounce back after a game like that.
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 4: They do have Florida next, but I don't think South
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 4: Carolina is going to overlook a ranked Kentucky team coming
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 4: into their house. I think both teams are actually going
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 4: to show up. But I think the real distraction angle,
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 4: if either team has one, I think it's Kentucky possibly
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 4: looking ahead to LSU here. So I will agree with
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 4: the favorite of some professional bettors here, which is when
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 4: you get a favorite, pun intended, when you get an
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 4: unranked favorite against a ranked favorite. opponent I will agree
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 4: with that and lean towards South Carolina here they open
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 4: around three three and a half and it's now like
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 4: two and a half so I think you'll be able
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 4: to get below a three here on South Carolina you
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 4: might be able to lay the two and a half
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 4: if you really like them but you might not because
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 4: the money is coming in that way and the public
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 4: is not really on Kentucky here it's 56 percent of
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 4: tickets on South Carolina but 85 percent of the cash
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 4: on them so it looks like the real money is
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 4: on South Carolina here I am agreeing with it I
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 4: would try to find the two and a half if
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 4: you're going to do it. You might wind up having
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 4: to lay three. It is what it is, man. All right,
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 4: Purdue at Illinois on Big Ten Network. I think both
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 4: these teams are ass, dude. I think they're both really bad,
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 4: and it's a really high total. And when I think
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 4: both teams are ass, a lot of times it's because
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 4: the defenses are ass. So this might be an over
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 4: look in this game. It's a really high total in
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 4: the low 60s. So like I say, it's high for
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 4: a reason. The oddsmakers... Pretty much know these are bad
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 4: defenses here. Now, Illinois is coming off getting blown up
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 4: by Ohio State. Not shocking there. Illinois has really been unimpressive, though, man, really.
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 4: They beat UAB by 19, but they actually got outgained
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 4: by UAB in that game at home, and UAB is
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 4: not good. So that's not good. And then the only
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 4: other win Illinois has is against FCS Southern Illinois. I
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 4: know there are other games, you know, One was Ohio State.
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 4: They weren't expected to win that, but they were a
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 4: favorite against Duke at home, and they didn't win that game.
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 4: I don't think Illinois is good, man. I really don't.
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 4: Is Purdue good, though? No, obviously they're not. Purdue just
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 4: took a loss to Notre Dame last week. That was
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 4: expected as well, obviously, although it's a rivalry game for Purdue,
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 4: but they did not even come close in that game.
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 4: So both teams coming off blowouts here. What do we
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 4: even do with this, man? I don't know. Purdue was
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 4: somewhat decent in that game against UCLA where we pushed
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 4: that game on the show. I liked the idea of
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 4: laying the points at UCLA in that one. I thought
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 4: it was a bad spot for Purdue. With the Notre
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 4: Dame look ahead and Purdue was coming off the overtime
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 4: cover against Wake Forest. going out to the Pacific coast
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 4: for a late night game, kind of surprised Purdue was
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 4: able to put up as much offense as they did
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 4: in that game. But look at what they're off. Like,
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 4: look at what their defense has done. I mean, the,
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 4: against their F, uh, BS opponents, they've allowed 38, 52
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 4: and 49. Yeah. Uh, that's bad. Um, Illinois has not
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 4: been as bad defensively. They still allowed 23 to UAB
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 4: and it probably could have been worse given the yardage
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 4: they gave up in that game. They give up 31
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 4: though to Duke and then 42 to Ohio State. So
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 4: these have been bad defenses, man. So again, I think
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 4: the over is probably the way to play this game,
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 4: even though I'm not a totals guy, but the money
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 4: seems to agree on the over, although it's a public
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 4: over as well. I don't know if there are any
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 4: key numbers here, but it's gone up from 59 and
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 4: a half to 62 and a half. So if you
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 4: do like the over, it's definitely gone through some numbers already.
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 4: So you've lost some value on it already. So I
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 4: don't really want to play the over. I wouldn't want
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 4: to play it when it's, you know, when you've lost
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 4: value on it like that, but I do still think
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 4: this is going to be a high scoring game. The
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 4: money's back in production. As far as the side, Illinois,
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 4: 59% of tickets on them, 80% of the cash on Purdue.
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 4: The total is 10 and a half, 10 money says Purdue.
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 4: I have no clue on the side in this game.
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 4: I think the game just makes sense as an over
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 4: to me, but, um, Yeah, and if it's an over,
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 4: it's easier for the favorite to cover, but I think
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 4: it's a high-variance game, man. I don't know what's going
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 4: to happen in that game as far as the side
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 4: is concerned. All right, we're over an hour. I don't
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 4: have too many games left to talk about, but I
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 4: usually take a break when I get to the evening games,
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 4: so I will do that right now, and then I'll
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 4: be right back. Yep, inside, I want to kill myself.
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 4: We were on an 0-7 run over the last two days.
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 4: After tonight, it was just complete bullshit. So that's how
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 4: I'm going to start off this show. Horrible Sunday.
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 5: 1-5.
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 4: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 4: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 4: never seen anything like this. With the slump continuing. Two
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 4: straight losses. Not a good day at all. 0-4. Have
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 4: not had a good season, man. With Wiccans.
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: Slump.
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 4: Then I'm on and the slump continues. I've reached a
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 4: new peak, actually.
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna burn my Bruins hat, man. I don't know
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 5: what is going on with the Bruins.
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 4: March 8th?
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 2: Is that what it is?
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 4: I don't even know. It's March 9th, I think. Who
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 4: even knows, man. I don't know what day it is anymore.
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 5: I don't even know what day it is anymore, man.
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 4: Back with you after the worst day that.
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 5: I could possibly have. Back with you as I always am.
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 5: Until I die, at least.
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 4: 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did not go well for me. 0-5,
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 4: the worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 4: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 4: you about this anymore. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 4: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 4: point other than potentially end it all.
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 4: Next game is, uh, feels really weird calling us a
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 4: pack 12 game, although not on the Oregon state side,
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 4: but Oregon state at Colorado state, it's a pack 12 game,
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 4: 6 PM Eastern on USA network. Uh, I mean, Oregon
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 4: state's the better team. I can tell you that Colorado
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 4: state not, uh, looking that good, even though they're two
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 4: and two, I really don't think they're that good under, uh,
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 4: Jim Mora jr. I believe is their coach now. Uh,
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 4: they've looked bad their last couple of games. Their defense
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 4: has been awful. Uh, they lost to BYU and UTSA,
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 4: giving up a ton of points in both, giving up
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 4: a combined a hundred points over those two games. That's
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 4: not good. Uh, their only wins are against Wyoming and
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 4: against FCS, Southern Utah, not a good Colorado state team,
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 4: but they're coming off of an ugly performance. So that
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 4: was a high scoring, you know, shootout type of game
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 4: against UTSA where they themselves scored 45 against UTSA. Um,
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 4: Let me see. Did they cover this? UTSA was a
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 4: 14-out point favorite. I think I said I liked the
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 4: idea of laying it with UTSA, and that didn't happen.
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 4: Colorado State was within seven late in that game. So technically,
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 4: Colorado State, they looked good in a loss. Let's just
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 4: put it that way. But they also... Played pretty well
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 4: as a big underdog. And I think, you know, when
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 4: a team plays well as a big underdog like that,
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 4: I think a lot of times they don't play well
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 4: in the next game. However, Oregon State having to go
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 4: into elevation like this, that's not going to be easy.
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 4: Oregon State's always been one of those Pac-12 teams. They're
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 4: one of the original old Pac, or one of the
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 4: old Pac-12 teams at least. And we're in the Pac-2
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 4: the last couple of years. So Colorado State might still
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 4: get up for a game like this because of the
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 4: name Oregon State. Oregon State's played a more difficult schedule.
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 4: They lost at Houston and at home against Texas Tech
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 4: and they played pretty well in both those games. So
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 4: Oregon State has the better resume so far. But they're
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 4: coming off a couple easy wins. They beat UTEP last week.
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 4: UTEP's not very good. Now this will be a second
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 4: straight road game for Oregon State and they do have
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 4: San Diego State next. They have at least more of
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 4: a name behind them than Colorado State does recently. I
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 4: don't know what to do with this game, to be honest.
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 4: It's an ugly game. It's a high total. Money coming
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 4: in on the over again, and it's gone up a
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 4: couple points to 62.5. So, again, it's a high total. Maybe, again,
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 4: it could be another over game because I think you
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 4: are at least looking at a bad Colorado State defense
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 4: at the very least. The money is... indicating on Colorado State.
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 4: Oregon State, 93% of tickets, only 66% of the cash
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 4: on them. They went up from 4.5 to 6.5, almost
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 4: 7 here, but now it looks like there's some take
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 4: back on Colorado State. I don't know if maybe the
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 4: initial line move was a fake move to set this
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 4: up and try to drive this thing all the way
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 4: to 7 to come back on that key number. I
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 4: don't know what just happened. It looks like this thing
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 4: just refreshed and we just lost the spread numbers completely here.
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 4: What the fuck? Very, very strange, man. Yeah, I don't
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 4: know what's going on. It looks like a bunch of
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 4: games have done that now. What the hell? I don't know,
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 4: but the line's like six and a half, seven now.
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 4: There it is. It's back now. Do what you want
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 4: with all that info, but I think, again, maybe it's
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 4: a game where you play the over. You know, I
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 4: don't love the side here necessarily. I mean, I think
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 4: the side is actually a little better for Oregon State,
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 4: to be honest. But they're a public road favorite, and
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 4: they have better name recognition. I don't want to be
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 4: doing that either, especially if you're going to wind up
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 4: having to lay seven. If you're going to lay it
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 4: with Oregon State, at least find a six and a half.
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 4: That's what I'll say. If you're going to play Colorado State,
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 4: at least find a seven. All right, ESPN at 7 p.m.
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 4: Speaking of seven, number 10, BYU at TCU. A little
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 4: bit of a weird spot, I think, for BYU because
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 4: they're coming out of a bye and they're 3-0. And
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 4: what did I say a little while ago about, I believe,
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 4: North Dakota State? I think it's bad when you go
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 4: into a bye undefeated, dude. I think it's one of
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 4: the worst times to have a bye. You do not
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 4: want to have a bye when you're undefeated because everything
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 4: is working for you and that can disrupt your momentum.
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 4: So I don't like that. And this is going to
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 4: be BYU's most difficult game so far. Like, yeah, they
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 4: played Arizona at home. Their only road game is against
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 4: Colorado State. That's not great, you know. So, BYU, yeah,
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 4: I think they're good. I think they might challenge for
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 4: the Big 12. They're a physical team in the Big 12.
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 4: They brought a lot of their players back from last year.
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 4: They've been a bowl team, you know, with these guys
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 4: the last couple years, whatever. Tricky spot for them here, though.
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 4: I think their momentum might be disrupted by the bye.
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 4: They've got to go all the way to Fort Worth,
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 4: Texas for this thing. TCU hasn't been that impressive so far.
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 4: TCU's coming off that ugly loss that I pointed out
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 4: at UCF, but I pointed out that it was misleading, remember,
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 4: and it was a tricky spot for TCU, having to
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 4: go all the way to Orlando to play UCF, it
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 4: was kind of a weird spot for TCU, and TCU
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 4: outgained UCF in the game by almost 100 yards, it
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 4: was just, they were minus two in turnovers, they turned
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 4: the ball over, and I think that's what kind of
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 4: did them in in this game, so I think it
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 4: was a misleading result for TCU, and kind of a
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 4: bad spot, and You know, I worry about TCU's defense
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 4: not being good. BYU is definitely the better defense here,
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 4: but you're asking BYU to lay points on the road
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 4: here in what I think is not a good spot
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 4: for BYU. So I like TCU in this game, and
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 4: this one was in consideration for me too. This one
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 4: was close to being a play for me. I like
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 4: fading teams when they go into a bye undefeated, man. And,
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 4: you know.
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 4: I don't think you could ever get the key number
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 4: seven on this. It looks like it was six and
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 4: a half, and it's just been six most of the week. BYU,
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 4: very public, 90% of tickets, only 77% of the cash
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 4: on them. I like this one. I like it a lot, actually.
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man. Am I going to add another
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 4: play here? I'm thinking about it. I do like it. But,
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 4: you know, I really don't like TCU's defense. TCU's coming
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 4: off an ugly loss as a favorite. There was a
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 4: misleading loss. BYU coming out of what I think might
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 4: be a disruptive bye. I'll leave it off the card,
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 4: but yeah, that's definitely a consideration for me. And it's
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 4: a low total, too. The money has strongly come in
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 4: on the under, and it's down to 47.5 now. And
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 4: you know I like taking points when it's a low total. However...
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 4: I think the under is correlated with BYU in this
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 4: game though. So it's kind of interesting to see the, uh,
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 4: under and TCU being the, uh, the money sides in
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 4: this game. It looks like here is BYU is the
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 4: better defense. So I think BYU, BYU is actually somewhat
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 4: correlated with the under here, but then again, it is
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 4: still easier to cover, uh, as an underdog when it's
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 4: going to be a lower scoring game. So yeah, I
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 4: like TCU. Uh, I feel pretty strongly about that one.
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 4: Definitely like TCU in that one. Um, All right. And
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 4: it's one of those ones where, you know, it looks
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 4: pretty easy to lay the points with the ranked team.
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? All right. Arkansas at Texas
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 4: A & M on ESPN2. Texas A & M has
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 4: completely dropped out of the rankings and they're 2-2 here,
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 4: where I think Arkansas might also be 2-2. Yeah, they are.
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 4: Arkansas has faced a difficult schedule. I'll give them that.
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 4: They played at Utah and at home against Georgia. They
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 4: got destroyed by both of them, but Arkansas bounced back
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 4: with a blowout win over Tulsa last week. But there's,
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 4: you know, are they going to do well stepping up
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 4: in class against A & M? I'm not so sure,
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 4: even though That'll get their fan base off their back.
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 4: The fan base was actually making fun of the team,
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 4: but I'm like, who expected Arkansas to beat Utah on
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 4: the road or beat Georgia? Are you kidding me? Nobody
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 4: expected them. Most teams would not win those two games.
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? So that was ridiculous. But
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 4: Arkansas got their fans off their back, at least by
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 4: blowing out Tulsa. But now they've got to step up
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 4: in class again and go to an A & M
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 4: team that I think is underrated right now, man. I
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 4: know they lost at home to Kentucky. That was ugly.
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 4: I thought they were kind of in a bounce-back spot
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 4: last week, and they got destroyed by LSU. That's not
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 4: necessarily a good sign, but at least LSU's a good team,
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 4: so that's not necessarily a bad loss. Now A &
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 4: M maybe bounces back at home, although you do have
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 4: to worry a little bit about A & M' s mindset, though.
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 4: Do you think they're in a dream crusher? Because being
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 4: in the SEC, two losses... It's not great. You really
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 4: can't take a third loss. And A & M, we
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 4: know they were in the playoffs last year, and I
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 4: assume their goal this year was to get to the
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 4: playoffs again at the very least. So what do we
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 4: do with this game? I don't know, man. I do
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 4: think Texas A & M should still be a top
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 4: 25 ranked team, though. They're public, 76% of tickets. It
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 4: looks like they're getting some of the money, too, 82%
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 4: of the cash on them, and they're laying right around
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 4: that key number 14 here. I kind of lean A
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 4: & M, man. I think, again, I think the stock
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 4: is kind of low on A & M right now
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 4: after they dropped out of the rankings. They didn't look
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 4: good at all last week. You are talking at least
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 4: about an Arkansas team that won in a blowout last
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 4: week and A & M losing in a blowout last week.
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 4: So sometimes that's an angle where you just fade that
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 4: in the next week. You know what I mean? Public
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 4: seems to still like A & M in this one, though.
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 4: They don't love Arkansas, I'll tell you that. But I
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 4: don't know. When you see two unranked teams like that
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 4: and it's an SEC battle and it's a Two touchdowns spread.
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 4: To me, I don't think the public is really going
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 4: that crazy laying those points, so I don't know. But yeah,
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 4: I lean A & M laying the points in that one.
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 4: Not a strong opinion, though. All right, number four, Miami
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 4: at Clemson, which is on ABC at 7.30 p.m.
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 2: Eastern.
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 4: I don't even know which game. I never know which
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 4: game is the college game day game, man. So somebody
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 4: can inform me of which game that is. I don't know. Florida,
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 4: Missouri seems to be one of the biggest ranked matchups here.
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 4: Is that really?
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 5: Or is it?
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 4: It might be. I don't know because Ohio State, Iowa
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 4: is not on one of those networks, right? It's on CBS,
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 4: so that's not going to be it. So, yeah, I
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 4: don't know. I have no idea where game day is.
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 4: Never do know. It's not Clemson, is it? I mean,
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 4: that would be ridiculous. But, yes, we have number four
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 4: Miami at Clemson on ABC. Is Miami overranked? Maybe. I mean,
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 4: they've had a really easy schedule so far, man. Like,
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 4: what's Miami's best win so far? I guess at Wake
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 4: Forest is their best win so far. Okay. I mean,
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 4: Miami's not battle-tested. They have Mensah as their new quarterback there.
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 4: He's good, but I don't think he's as good as
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 4: Carson Beck was for Miami. So I still question Miami
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 4: a bit here. Easy schedule so far, although they're obviously
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 4: better than Clemson, too. But this will probably be their
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 4: most difficult game so far, going into Death Valley, the
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 4: lesser of the two Death Valleys. Sorry, Clemson fans. I
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 4: don't even like LSU, but it's just, I think, a
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 4: fact that it's a more difficult environment in LSU's version
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 4: of Death Valley. But still, Miami does have to go
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 4: to Death Valley, Clemson edition, at night here for this one.
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 4: Miami's coming off an easy win over Central Michigan last week. Clemson,
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 4: of course, went out to the Pacific Coast, so they
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 4: are having to travel cross-country here. They went out Pacific
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 4: Coast and did way better than I thought they would
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 4: at Cal last week. And now all of a sudden
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 4: Clemson is the more battle-tested team over Miami because Clemson
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 4: at least played LSU, although they lost badly. But Clemson
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 4: has at least faced a very difficult opponent where Miami
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 4: has not so far. And Clemson did have to face
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 4: a tough travel spot at least last week. Maybe it'll
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 4: still be tough traveling back home, but at least they're
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 4: playing a night game here. It'll be a little bit
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 4: of extra time for them to do this, to prepare
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 4: for it. And that was, I believe, a Friday night
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 4: game last week, too. So Clemson does have one extra
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 4: day of rest here, whereas Miami, I think, played on
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 4: Saturday last week, which I think was the first time
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 4: they played on Saturday. I think even their Florida A
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 4: & M game was not a Saturday game for Miami. So, yeah,
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 4: I mean... I kind of lean Clemson in this one,
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 4: even though I really don't think they're that good, but
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 4: the public's all over Miami. 67% of tickets, 57% of
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 4: the cash on Miami. Of course, whenever I say I
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 4: have a lean, I mean it's against the spread. I'm
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 4: not saying I think Clemson's going to win the game outright, but...
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 4: You've lost value, though. That's the thing. Miami opened 17
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 4: and it immediately got hit down through that key number.
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 4: Now you're looking at a 15, 15.5, although you're still
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 4: at least above that other key number of 14. It
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 4: is a low total of 47, 48.5. The public is
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 4: all over here. 47.5, 48, I mean. Public wants the over,
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 4: but the money looks like it's kind of driving this
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 4: thing under. And I think the under should help Clemson
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 4: as the underdog here, man. Clemson may be able to
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 4: ugly this game up and slow it down a bit. Yeah,
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 4: I think I would lean towards taking the points, man.
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 4: Taking a lot of points like that with a low
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 4: total like that. Plus, I think the spot, you know,
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 4: despite the cross-country travel, the spot's a little bit better
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 4: for Clemson. So, that is the way I'm going to
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 4: lean in that one. It'll be a big game for
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 4: both teams, although... Miami, they do have a bye next,
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 4: but after that they have one of their rivals, Florida State.
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 4: So I think they do consider Florida State to be
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 4: a bigger game than Clemson. And that is what they
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 4: have on deck, although it is after a bye. But yeah,
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 4: I'm going to lean Clemson plus the points there. Number 12,
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 4: Texas Tech at Colorado. Maybe a weird spot for Texas
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 4: Tech to have to go into elevation here. Texas Tech
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 4: has not been that impressive so far, man. Yeah, I mean,
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 4: they've underperformed in most of their games. I think they
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 4: did cover last week against Sam Houston, but they've underperformed
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 4: in all these games so far, man. Yeah, they only
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 4: covered by a half point, and it was only on
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 4: the closing number. They did not cover the bigger number
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 4: where it opened last week, so If you want to
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 4: talk about one of the opening numbers there, then Texas
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 4: Tech I don't think has covered any of their games yet.
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 4: Now they're going back out on the road. The last
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 4: time they went out on the road against Oregon State,
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 4: they weren't that good in that one. Colorado sitting at 2-2.
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 4: Texas Tech looks like they're overrated right now this year, man.
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 4: I know they keep winning, but I don't know. There's
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 4: something off about them, obviously. They've been unimpressive in all
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 4: of their wins. Colorado At least I think they're a
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 4: little bit more battle-tested maybe because they face Northwestern, who
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 4: does look good now. Georgia Tech and Baylor all on
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 4: the road at least. Although Texas Tech did face Houston,
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 4: who's probably better than all those teams. But I don't know.
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 4: Northwestern's looking pretty good after the last couple weeks, man.
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 4: Maybe that Northwestern team is actually somewhat for real. I
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 4: don't know. They'll probably be ranked after tonight, though. And
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 4: maybe you want to fade them next week. But Colorado's
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 4: coming off kind of an ugly game at Baylor last week.
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 4: It was a low-scoring game. Colorado might have covered. They
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 4: lost by 10. The number was right around 10. Yeah, actually,
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 4: Baylor did cover, barely. And that game was more like
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 4: an 8.5, 9-point spread there. I'm going to leave Colorado, though.
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 4: I think Texas Tech's a little bit overrated. We really
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 4: just haven't seen anything impressive out of them so far.
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 4: And going on the road into Elevation... But you've lost
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 4: the key number on this too. Texas Tech opened 14
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 4: and a half and it's down to 13 and a
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 4: half now. So missed the boat on that one too.
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 4: Although I guess you could wait and see if the
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 4: public drives it back up to 14. Don't know if
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 4: it's going to happen, but we have 87% of tickets
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 4: on Texas Tech, 65% of the cash on them. So
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 4: the money's agreeing with Colorado. It is a low total
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 4: at 49. So that does help the case of the
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 4: underdog there. Eileen Colorado plus the points in that one.
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 4: Next game up will be my final actual play here.
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 4: which I think is a good spot to play on
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 4: both sides here. Washington plus 9.5. This one, I don't
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 4: think this game, this was ever 10. I don't think
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 4: it's going to get there. It looks like it opened 9,
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 4: and it's been 9.5. I don't really see it teetering
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 4: on 10, though, so I don't know if it's going
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 4: to get there. It is a high total here. This
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 4: is at USC, but the money is agreeing with me
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 4: on this. 88% of the tickets and 73% of the
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 4: cash on USC. So USC is public. And I think
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 4: this is a spot to fade. Number 18 ranked USC, man.
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 4: This is on NBC Network here. Or NBC, excuse me. Washington, yeah,
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 4: they're coming off their first loss, and I get that.
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 4: Sometimes that will hang you over to the next game.
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 4: And it is their first road game, but I'm not
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 4: as worried about that because they're familiar with going to USC.
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 4: These are former Pac-12 teams. They're staying in the Pacific
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 4: time zone. It's not that uncommon of a travel spot
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 4: for them. But I also like that Washington's coming off
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 4: an ugly game that I mentioned against Minnesota, where Minnesota
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 4: came in, and yeah, Minnesota did legitimately beat them. They
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 4: outgained them or whatever, and really outpossessed them. But Washington
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 4: was a double-digit favorite in that game, man. And like
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 4: I always say, when a team loses as a double-digit favorite,
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 4: I think they tend to bounce back in the next game.
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 4: So I think this is a bounce-back spot for Washington.
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 4: I think they might be a little bit under the radar.
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 4: even though they're not really battle-tested yet, and that was
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 4: their most difficult game so far, and yes, they lost
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 4: against Minnesota. They also didn't look good against Utah State
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 4: in their second game, but Washington was coming off a
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 4: big rivalry game against Washington State, and then against Utah State,
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 4: they didn't do well, but Utah State had lost to
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 4: an FCS team The prior games, that was a good
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 4: spot for Utah State to at least come within that
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 4: number there. Although, yes, I know Washington almost lost that game. Still,
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 4: I think Washington gets up for this one. I'm not
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 4: impressed by USC. And USC, they're also coming off their
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 4: first loss. And that was the only time they got
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 4: battle tested. I mean, USC, how impressive have they been
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 4: so far? Not really. I mean, they beat Louisiana by 19.
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 4: They beat San Jose State by 16. Even though I know...
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 4: Lincoln Riley seems to take his foot off the gas
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 4: at the end of these games. They went out to Rutgers,
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 4: and they barely won by seven, and they got manhandled
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 4: by Oregon's backup quarterback last week. So, yeah, you know,
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 4: neither of these teams have been that impressive so far.
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 4: Even though USC was expected to do big things this year,
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 4: you know, brought back a lot of their players. I
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 4: don't know. Maybe that first loss will hang them over,
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 4: but it was a big game against Oregon, and I
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 4: told you I liked Oregon in that one. There was
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 4: a reason why even though Oregon was the lower ranked team,
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 4: they were favored on the road there because the odds
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 4: makers were telling you Oregon was the better team. And USC,
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 4: it was disgusting what they did, man. I think it
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 4: was a targeting call. I mean, they did call targeting,
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 4: I think. It was a flag, at least, on USC,
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 4: but they did not... I don't think they ejected the player.
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 4: I think he should have at least been suspended, because
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 4: if you didn't see it, Dante Moore, the quarterback for Oregon,
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 4: in the middle of that game, he slid, and people
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 4: are saying that he slid too late, but the defensive
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 4: player in USC launched himself. at him you know what
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 4: i mean even if he did that when the slide
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 4: was starting or whatever wound up being like a head-to-head
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 4: contact uh type of play knocked more out of the
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 4: game with a concussion um you know what i mean
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 4: and then then usc was celebrating it which is disgusting
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 4: uh celebrating you know injuring the other team's quarterback okay
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 4: and then rightfully so usc still lost to oregon's backup
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 4: quarterback dylan raiola former nebraska quarterback shout out to nate
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 4: i think it's our Nebraska fan right who's sometimes uh
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 4: in the chat there uh or no is it Nate
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 4: yeah I keep forgetting who's who now in the chat
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 4: I've I apologize unless it's Zach I forget I apologize
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 4: I get things wrong I haven't seen Nate in a
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 4: while though anyway um yeah Dylan Raiola the Patrick Mahomes
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 4: wannabe who I don't even think is that good he
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 4: still led Oregon to that win there um But either way,
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 4: I think it's going to be kind of a hangover
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 4: spot for USC. Yeah, they lost by 14, but this
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 4: game was tied in the fourth quarter, man. And it
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 4: was still a seven-point game with a couple minutes left
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 4: in the game. So that was a close game. It
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 4: was a huge ranked matchup for USC. I think USC
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 4: is going to be in a hangover spot here. They
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 4: do play Penn State next, which I don't know if
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 4: that's that big of a deal. now that Penn State
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 4: hasn't looked good recently. But even so, I think it's
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 4: a hangover spot coming off that loss in that huge
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 4: game where people are going to still say that USC
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 4: looked pretty good in a loss to a good Oregon team.
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 4: Nobody's going to give Washington any credit for losing to Minnesota,
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 4: of course. People are going to say that's the uglier loss, obviously.
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 4: And I like Washington to be in a bounce-back spot
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 4: here off of that particular loss. That's all I got.
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 4: The money's agreeing with me on that. We're taking Washington
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 4: plus the points. All right. CBS Sports at 7.30 p.m.
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 4: as we try to finish this shit here. Utah State
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 4: at number 22, Boise State. Boise State is ranked. Boise
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 4: State went into Western Michigan and annihilated them. Yes, that
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 4: same Western Michigan team that had the win and got
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 4: screwed out of the win against Michigan. Yes, Boise State
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 4: went in and beat Western Michigan badly. I did actually
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 4: lean towards laying the points with Boise in that one
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 4: because Boise didn't look good against South Dakota the week before.
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 4: And I thought they'd be focused. Now Boise coming back home.
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 4: I don't know. Will they be that focused against Utah State?
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 4: I don't know. This is kind of an old Mountain
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 4: West matchup here. Now it's oddly, this is a Pac-12
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 4: matchup now. Utah State got their first win of the season.
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 4: That was a winner I gave out on the show
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 4: last week. They beat Troy. They covered. They got Troy
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 4: in a bad spot though. They caught them in a
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 4: bad spot. Because remember, Troy had played Missouri really close
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 4: in the previous week. And Utah State's faced a difficult schedule.
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 4: They had to play at Washington, and they actually played
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 4: well in that game. Then they lost at Utah, and
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 4: Utah looks very good. So I'm not going to knock
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 4: them for that, although Utah State did open the season
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 4: by losing to an FCS team, Idaho State. But Utah
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 4: State winning last week, that should give them some momentum, man.
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 4: And they are at least pretty battle-tested here. Getting that
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 4: win against kind of a... I guess you could call
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 4: them a lesser opponent. And Troy, a lesser conference opponent.
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 4: That's not going to make Utah State overconfident. You know
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 4: what I mean? And the reason I didn't think it
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 4: was a look ahead last week for Utah State to
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 4: this big game against Boise is because Utah State hadn't
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 4: won a game yet. But yeah, Boise's very public here.
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 4: 93% of tickets, 90% of the cash on them. Hugely
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 4: public Boise side. So yeah, I would fade them. But
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 4: you lost a key number, although it was probably gone quickly.
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 4: It was 21... when it opened, although it looks like
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 4: it was with reduced juice. It was probably extra juice,
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 4: I mean, on the plus 21, so you probably didn't
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 4: ever have the actual 21 there, so maybe it's not
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 4: as much of a concern that you lost that number.
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 4: It's at 19.5 here now, not a high total at 50,
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 4: so yeah, I like Utah State plus the points in
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 4: that one. All right, ESPNU at 7.30 p.m. Eastern is
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 4: Temple at South Florida. This is This looks pretty ugly, man.
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 4: Temple's only got one win. They beat an FCS team,
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 4: Rhode Island. They faced kind of a difficult schedule, though.
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 4: I mean, they had to play Penn State. They had
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 4: a tough game against Toledo where they fell just short
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 4: on the road against what I think is probably one
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 4: of the best MAAC teams, at least, in Toledo. And
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 4: then they lost to Army after that. And I believe
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 4: Temple's coming out of a bye. Uh, no. Oh, no, wait. Oh, yeah,
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 4: that's right. They lost to Army last week on a Friday.
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 4: So they have extra time off because they played on Friday.
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 4: That's what it was. That's what I was thinking of. Yeah, yeah.
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 4: So they do have one extra day of rest here, Temple.
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 4: But if you look at that loss to Army, Temple
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 4: is actually better in this game than it looks. Temple
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 4: won the yardage battle against Army by 140-something yards here, man.
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 4: So Temple actually should have beaten Army statistically here. Although
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 4: Army did dominate the possession, but that's just kind of
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 4: what they do because they run the football. They run
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 4: the triple option. But Temple, in a way, was actually
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 4: better in that game against Army than it looked. South Florida,
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 4: they have been extremely unimpressive, man. They beat Army, by
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 4: the way. So people are going to look at that
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 4: and say, oh, South Florida won at Army, whereas Temple,
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 4: I believe, lost at home to Army. So people are
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 4: going to look at that and say, well, if South
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 4: Florida won at Army... And, you know, Army won at Temple. Then,
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 4: of course, South Florida is going to beat Temple here, right?
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 4: So I think that's what the public is going to say.
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 4: They're going to do that transitive thing. South Florida's looked
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 4: really bad, though, man. I mean, they got outgained by FIU,
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 4: I think, in their first game. That wasn't good. Yes,
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 4: they beat Army. That's a fine win. Then last week,
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 4: they only beat Bowling Green by eight. Are you kidding me?
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 4: South Florida was a 17.5-point favorite in that game. Bowling
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 4: Green's been awful, man. Awful. And Bowling Green was winning
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 4: this game 6-0 going into the fourth quarter, by the way. So, yes,
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 4: that's right. USF had not scored in the first three
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 4: quarters of this game. Holy crap, that's bad. They did
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 4: score two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to win the game.
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 4: But that is an awful performance. However, I know I
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 4: do always say when a team is a huge favorite
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 4: and they don't cover, they usually are in a bounce-back
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 4: spot after that. However... I think there were a lot
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 4: of red flags with South Florida, man, and one would
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 4: be they didn't even score enough points to, they didn't
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 4: even score the spread in that game, okay? Like, there
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 4: were 17 whatever point favored in that game, and they
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 4: only scored 14, and they had scored zero going into
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 4: the fourth quarter, so when a team doesn't even score
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 4: enough points to cover the spread, like when they score
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 4: fewer points than what the spread is, I think that's
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 4: a red flag, and I should have been mentioning that
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 4: earlier on some other teams, or I think I actually
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 4: played on one team that I had that going against them,
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 4: which I forget which team that would have been, but
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 4: I think it was Oklahoma maybe. I can't remember, but yeah,
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 4: it is a red flag. So I actually like Temple.
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 4: Both teams are coming off ugly games. Temple's got the
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 4: extra rest. I think Temple is not that much worse
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 4: than South Florida. South Florida's laying six, which seems kind
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 4: of ridiculous given how bad they've been. 48 and a
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 4: half is the total here, so it's a low total.
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 4: You know, normally I would say if a team looks
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 4: really bad and they're laying points, you want to look
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 4: to kind of back them. But I just, I don't know.
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 4: There are too many red flags with South Florida. 51%
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 4: of tickets, 90% of the cash on Temple. And Temple
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 4: was actually better, like I said, than they looked last
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 4: week in that close loss to Army. They actually outgained
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 4: Army by a lot. So, yeah, the money's agreeing with Temple.
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 4: That's the way I would lean in that game as well.
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 4: All right. Big Ten Network at 8 p.m. A real
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 4: great game here. Indiana number six at Rutgers. Now, we
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 4: know Indiana, I mean, they started the season blowing out
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 4: three cupcakes, basically. Well, North Texas isn't exactly a cupcake,
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 4: even though they're rebuilding this year. They look pretty prolific offensively, really.
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 4: It's not against Indiana, though. Indiana's defense is good. But
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 4: we saw what Indiana looked like last week against Northwestern.
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 4: Indiana did not look good in that game. They were
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 4: a three-touchdown favorite. at home, and they barely won the game.
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 4: They only won by six, although I think Northwestern might
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 4: have scored late to get back within that number. Yeah,
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 4: Indiana was winning by nine late, but it was a
• 1:48:46
  Speaker 4: two-point game with two minutes to go before their quarterback,
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 4: former TCU quarterback Hoover, ran it in to push the
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 4: score to nine, but that was still a game where
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 4: you got to think Indiana's going to be shocked back
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 4: into focus after that, and they actually dominated this game.
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 4: They won the yardage battle by over 150 yards. That
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 4: was something I forgot to even point out with my
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 4: fade of Northwestern tonight that didn't work out. But another
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 4: reason to fade Northwestern tonight was Northwestern wasn't even as
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 4: good in this game as it looked. Indiana completely outgained them.
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 4: Maybe I did mention it, actually. Maybe I just forget.
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 4: I don't know. It's my stroke brain. Indiana dominated the
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 4: time of possession in that game. So that game should
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 4: have been an easier win for Indiana. But I think
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 4: when you have a misleading box score like that where
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 4: Indiana was better than they looked... You have a big
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 4: favorite that almost lost, sort of, like Indiana. I think
• 1:49:38
  Speaker 4: that team gets back up after a game like that.
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 4: So I think Indiana might show up for this game,
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 4: although they do have Nebraska next, which they probably consider
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 4: to be a bigger game. But the problem for Rutgers is... Well, actually, no,
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 4: there is no problem for Rutgers. What am I saying?
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 4: I was thinking they were coming off that USC game,
• 1:49:54
  Speaker 4: but that's not right. They turned around and they beat
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 4: Howard last week, which is an FCS school, but still.
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 4: What I think is good about that is Rutgers finally
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 4: got a win. So you get that monkey off your back.
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 4: You get a win that's not going to make you overconfident,
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 4: but you finally get a win, and it will propel
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 4: you forward with some new momentum. So I actually do
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 4: think it's a positive spot for Rutgers coming off of
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 4: that win. So I like Rutgers in this. Or no.
• 1:50:18
  Speaker 4: But I like both teams in this game. What am
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 4: I saying? You know, the money is coming in on Rutgers.
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 4: 54% of tickets on Rutgers, though. 61% of the cash
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 4: on them. It's a 24.5 point spread, though. Indiana laying
• 1:50:32
  Speaker 4: that on the road. totals you know kind of a
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 4: mid-range total of 56 i don't know man i think
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 4: both teams might be focused here maybe it's a weird
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 4: spot for indiana i have to go all the way
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 4: out to new jersey for this game i don't know
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 4: but i don't really want to fade indiana coming off
• 1:50:49
  Speaker 4: that uh game where they have extra rest coming off
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 4: that game they didn't look good in front of a
• 1:50:53
  Speaker 4: primetime audience against um But now after what Northwestern did tonight,
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 4: maybe the public will be giving Indiana a little bit
• 1:51:01
  Speaker 4: more credit. So I don't know. That's a tough, tough
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 4: read in that game, man. I don't know what to
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 4: do with it, to be honest. Yeah, I don't even
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 4: have a good, I don't even know if I want
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 4: to give an opinion on that. It's just such a
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 4: tough game to figure out. The money is saying Rutgers slightly.
• 1:51:22
  Speaker 4: Fresno at Washington State on USA Network, 9.30 p.m. Eastern.
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 4: This is a new Pac-12 matchup as well. Feels really
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 4: weird to be saying that. Washington State, they played a
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 4: difficult schedule, man. They had to play at Washington. They
• 1:51:37
  Speaker 4: played at Kansas State. And they played at home against Arizona. Yes,
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 4: they lost all three of those step-up games. But Fresno
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 4: is not as good as any of those three teams. So,
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 4: you know, Washington State may be able to get this
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 4: thing done here. Coming off that loss to Arizona, though,
• 1:51:53
  Speaker 4: where Washington State, I believe they did cover in that game,
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 4: but they lost by 10, and I don't think it
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 4: was that close. It was at home. Actually, you know,
• 1:52:02
  Speaker 4: they were down only seven late in the game, so
• 1:52:04
  Speaker 4: it was fairly close. I don't know. Washington State, I
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 4: guess they do qualify as a team that was a
• 1:52:09
  Speaker 4: big underdog that came close to winning the game last week.
• 1:52:12
  Speaker 4: So maybe you do have an argument. They could be
• 1:52:15
  Speaker 4: in a little bit of a hangover off of that,
• 1:52:17
  Speaker 4: but they're the more battle-tested team. I think Fresno... Fresno
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 4: did play USC in the first game, but since then,
• 1:52:23
  Speaker 4: look at Fresno's wins, man. Sacramento State, who, like I said,
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 4: I think they're the worst team in FBS. San Jose State,
• 1:52:29
  Speaker 4: not looking good either. And Rice, only beating them by 14.
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 4: Not impressive. Rice is not that good either, man. So,
• 1:52:38
  Speaker 4: you're looking at a Fresno team that's 3-1. Washington State's 1-3,
• 1:52:42
  Speaker 4: yet Washington State's a small favorite in this game. And yes,
• 1:52:46
  Speaker 4: it's partially because they're at home, so the oddsmakers are
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 4: actually telling you Fresno's the better team, but To me,
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 4: I think the public is going to be on Fresno,
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 4: and they are. 60% of tickets, although 90% of the
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 4: cash is on them too. But Fresno opened minus one,
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 4: and now Washington State's minus one, minus one and a half.
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 4: So the line flipped to Washington State. So I don't
• 1:53:05
  Speaker 4: know how that coincides with the money coming in on Fresno.
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 4: I don't really get that. But I think I lean
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 4: Washington State in this one. Again, you're talking about a
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 4: one and three team against a three and one team.
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 4: Washington State's the one and three team, yet they're a
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 4: small favorite here. To me, I think the public would
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 4: be like, oh, I'm getting points with the 3-1 team.
• 1:53:23
  Speaker 4: Let me do that. Maybe it's just Washington State's name
• 1:53:27
  Speaker 4: recognition is just holding the public off of Fresno State
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 4: a little bit more than they would be otherwise. Maybe
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 4: just because of the name Washington State. I don't know.
• 1:53:36
  Speaker 4: But I think Washington State, they at least are more battle-tested.
• 1:53:40
  Speaker 4: I'm not going to quite go as far as saying
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 4: they're the better team. because the odds makers are telling
• 1:53:44
  Speaker 4: you they're not because they're not getting full home field,
• 1:53:47
  Speaker 4: but maybe the odds makers have it a little off.
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 4: Maybe Washington State could be the better team out of
• 1:53:51
  Speaker 4: these two. I mean, I don't think it's out of
• 1:53:53
  Speaker 4: the question that that's a possibility. So yeah, I don't know.
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 4: I kind of like Washington State in that one. ESPN,
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 4: Baylor at Arizona State as we get into the real
• 1:54:03
  Speaker 4: late night games, 10.30 p.m.
• 1:54:04
  Speaker 2: Eastern.
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 4: Now, one thing of note, Baylor is having to go
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 4: home Way out west, basically, for a late-night game. You
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 4: know how I talk about that's not good for these
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 4: more eastern teams, even though Baylor's in Texas, I know,
• 1:54:18
  Speaker 4: but still that central time zone. Having to go out
• 1:54:21
  Speaker 4: west multiple time zones different, it is kind of difficult
• 1:54:24
  Speaker 4: to go out there and adjust to, I don't know,
• 1:54:28
  Speaker 4: it's not Pacific time, I guess. What is Arizona on?
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 4: I don't even know. Their own Arizona time, whatever it is. Um,
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 4: it'll be a late night game either way though for Baylor.
• 1:54:37
  Speaker 4: So it might mess with their biological clock, uh, kind
• 1:54:41
  Speaker 4: of a difficult spot for Baylor. It will be their
• 1:54:42
  Speaker 4: first true road game as well. That's not necessarily good either.
• 1:54:47
  Speaker 4: Baylor's wins have all been unimpressive man against Prairie view,
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 4: Louisiana tech, Colorado, not impressed by any of that DJ
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 4: lag way for Baylor. He was the quarterback that couldn't
• 1:54:57
  Speaker 4: really cut it when he was at Florida. Um, So
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 4: they cut him. Sort of, well, whatever. He's now on Baylor,
• 1:55:03
  Speaker 4: which should help him a little bit because he gets
• 1:55:05
  Speaker 4: to face Big 12 defenses instead of SEC defenses. But
• 1:55:11
  Speaker 4: I still don't think he's that good. I don't necessarily
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 4: like the spot for Baylor here. Arizona State, I believe,
• 1:55:16
  Speaker 4: is coming out of a bye. And usually I think
• 1:55:19
  Speaker 4: byes can be positive, but In the case that Arizona
• 1:55:23
  Speaker 4: State is in, I'm not so sure that it is
• 1:55:25
  Speaker 4: because they went into the bye on a good note.
• 1:55:27
  Speaker 4: They were in London, as I mentioned earlier in the show,
• 1:55:29
  Speaker 4: against Kansas, which I think I was correct on that
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 4: lean with Arizona State in that one. I think that's
• 1:55:35
  Speaker 4: the way that I leaned. Arizona State won that game.
• 1:55:37
  Speaker 4: You know, I say when a team has a bye
• 1:55:39
  Speaker 4: after a good win, which I would say that was
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 4: a good win for Arizona State. They went into the
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 4: bye on a good note. I think the bye is
• 1:55:45
  Speaker 4: a negative. It can disrupt you, although, however... the buy
• 1:55:50
  Speaker 4: was still probably, you know, good for them though, because, uh,
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 4: they were in London, you know, so having to come
• 1:55:54
  Speaker 4: all the way back from London, you don't want to
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 4: do that on a week turnaround time. So at least
• 1:55:58
  Speaker 4: the college schedule makers are good to these teams that
• 1:56:01
  Speaker 4: have to play international. I think all of them got
• 1:56:03
  Speaker 4: a week off after that. So that's good. At least
• 1:56:06
  Speaker 4: like the Dublin teams in week zero. And now the
• 1:56:09
  Speaker 4: London teams from last week, both got a buy Kansas
• 1:56:12
  Speaker 4: and Arizona state. So maybe overall that will help Arizona
• 1:56:16
  Speaker 4: state coming into this one here. Um, You know, Arizona State,
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 4: I guess, has the more impressive resume with that win
• 1:56:22
  Speaker 4: over Kansas. They had a loss to Texas A & M,
• 1:56:25
  Speaker 4: who I think is better than people think they are
• 1:56:27
  Speaker 4: right now, at least. So yeah, I don't know. I
• 1:56:30
  Speaker 4: might slightly lean Arizona State here in this one. The
• 1:56:33
  Speaker 4: money seems to agree. 67% of tickets on Baylor, 63%
• 1:56:36
  Speaker 4: of the cash on Arizona State. You're laying three and
• 1:56:39
  Speaker 4: a half, basically, in this one. The line hasn't really moved.
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 4: So yeah, that's what I got on that one. Texas
• 1:56:45
  Speaker 4: State at San Diego State, as we finally get to
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 4: what I was talking about, where you're going to be like,
• 1:56:50
  Speaker 4: what is going on here? Texas State they were going
• 1:56:54
  Speaker 4: to be a four-point favorite. Now they're 9.5-10. Well, why
• 1:56:58
  Speaker 4: is that? It's because San Diego State has an outbreak
• 1:57:02
  Speaker 4: of the mumps, which is causing a bunch of their
• 1:57:06
  Speaker 4: players to be out. And that was actually the case
• 1:57:08
  Speaker 4: the last two weeks in a row where I was
• 1:57:10
  Speaker 4: unaware of that. And that was maybe part of the
• 1:57:13
  Speaker 4: reason they lost to James Madison two weeks ago and
• 1:57:15
  Speaker 4: what I thought was a difficult spot for James Madison
• 1:57:17
  Speaker 4: or a difficult spot for Yeah, James Madison, yeah. Going
• 1:57:21
  Speaker 4: out to the Pacific Coast. Then San Diego State. I
• 1:57:24
  Speaker 4: did like Toledo last week. Still not knowing about the mumps, though.
• 1:57:27
  Speaker 4: San Diego State, weird travel spot. Having to go to Toledo.
• 1:57:29
  Speaker 4: Toledo blew them out. I think the line must have
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 4: gone way up on Toledo or something. The San Diego
• 1:57:35
  Speaker 4: State team, you're going to probably get value on them
• 1:57:38
  Speaker 4: once their guys come back or maybe, you know, the
• 1:57:40
  Speaker 4: second game when they come back. Because, you know, I
• 1:57:42
  Speaker 4: don't really want to necessarily play on them when they
• 1:57:44
  Speaker 4: get their guys back. Although maybe you do because it's
• 1:57:46
  Speaker 4: kind of like a cluster injury, right? Cluster injuries or
• 1:57:50
  Speaker 4: cluster mumps like this, although they do have some injured
• 1:57:52
  Speaker 4: players too. That's a different scenario, you know what I mean?
• 1:57:57
  Speaker 4: where it's like the entire team is out, basically. So
• 1:58:01
  Speaker 4: do their backups step it up? Well, yeah, they'll try,
• 1:58:04
  Speaker 4: but there might be a big, like a legitimate drop
• 1:58:07
  Speaker 4: off to the backups. Like that's what you have to
• 1:58:09
  Speaker 4: figure out here. Like, is this an overreaction to the
• 1:58:12
  Speaker 4: mumps outbreak? The fact that now Texas state on the
• 1:58:16
  Speaker 4: road is laying almost double digits here against what's typically
• 1:58:20
  Speaker 4: a pretty decent San Diego state team. And usually they
• 1:58:22
  Speaker 4: play good defense to, um, better than Texas state does
• 1:58:26
  Speaker 4: Texas state, not known as a defensive team, uh, What
• 1:58:30
  Speaker 4: do we do with this, man? I don't know. It's
• 1:58:32
  Speaker 4: really tough to figure out. How do you quantify all
• 1:58:35
  Speaker 4: these guys being out with this illness for San Diego
• 1:58:38
  Speaker 4: State plus the injured players they have?
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:58:42
  Speaker 4: Maybe it is an overreaction, and maybe San Diego State
• 1:58:44
  Speaker 4: will step up for this. I don't want to lay
• 1:58:47
  Speaker 4: the points to Texas State. I'll tell you that. You
• 1:58:48
  Speaker 4: know Texas State, as I keep talking about, they're notorious
• 1:58:51
  Speaker 4: for turning the ball over constantly, and you'd think they
• 1:58:55
  Speaker 4: would clean that up, just fix your discipline. You know
• 1:58:57
  Speaker 4: what I mean? Cause it seems like Texas state last
• 1:59:00
  Speaker 4: year and this year, they're just constantly like out gaining teams,
• 1:59:03
  Speaker 4: but not performing as well as they should because they
• 1:59:06
  Speaker 4: turn it over all over the place.
• 1:59:08
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:59:09
  Speaker 4: I mean, Texas state's coming up an easy win over
• 1:59:11
  Speaker 4: FCS incarnate word last week, but they're having to leave
• 1:59:14
  Speaker 4: the state of Texas for the first time this season.
• 1:59:16
  Speaker 4: And that's not easy to do. Even if you're playing
• 1:59:19
  Speaker 4: against a team where everybody has the mumps, um, Going
• 1:59:22
  Speaker 4: out to the Pacific Coast for a late-night game, that's difficult.
• 1:59:25
  Speaker 4: You've got to adjust your biological clock. As a team
• 1:59:28
  Speaker 4: that I believe is in the central time zone typically,
• 1:59:31
  Speaker 4: leaving Texas for the first time on the season, not
• 1:59:33
  Speaker 4: going to be that easy to do. As ugly as
• 1:59:36
  Speaker 4: it is, I probably have to lean to San Diego
• 1:59:38
  Speaker 4: State here, given the extra points here, especially if you're
• 1:59:42
  Speaker 4: going to be able to get 10 on that. The
• 1:59:46
  Speaker 4: total is high, though. It's a lot higher than I usually...
• 1:59:50
  Speaker 4: that I'm used to seeing from San Diego State games,
• 1:59:52
  Speaker 4: you know, because they usually play good defense, but this
• 1:59:54
  Speaker 4: is a high total. 89% of tickets, 92% of the
• 1:59:58
  Speaker 4: cash on Texas State. Again, they're up to like a 9.5,
• 2:00:01
  Speaker 4: 10-point favorite here. They're very public. Not a huge cash
• 2:00:06
  Speaker 4: differential on them there. I'm going to lean towards it
• 2:00:10
  Speaker 4: being an overreaction and lean towards San Diego State, but
• 2:00:12
  Speaker 4: I really don't love it. And then the last game
• 2:00:14
  Speaker 4: I'll talk about, unless somebody is going to shout out
• 2:00:16
  Speaker 4: one really quick, but hopefully they don't because... I want
• 2:00:19
  Speaker 4: to get the show done, and at least it'll be
• 2:00:21
  Speaker 4: two hours instead of two and a half this time.
• 2:00:23
  Speaker 4: Yay for speed with me. I got to keep doing that.
• 2:00:26
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati is at Arizona here to finish this off. Now,
• 2:00:29
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati having to play an 11 p.m. Eastern game right away,
• 2:00:33
  Speaker 4: that looks pretty tough to me, okay? Cincinnati, you know,
• 2:00:40
  Speaker 4: they've won all four of their games so far, and
• 2:00:42
  Speaker 4: they're coming off their best win of the season. They
• 2:00:44
  Speaker 4: upset Kansas State. Um, in Cincinnati. So Cincinnati coming off
• 2:00:48
  Speaker 4: a really good win here. Um, and you know, it
• 2:00:51
  Speaker 4: was a little bit misleading. Kansas state out gained them
• 2:00:53
  Speaker 4: by a little bit. Kansas state out first down them.
• 2:00:55
  Speaker 4: Kansas state out possess them. So yeah, I would say
• 2:00:58
  Speaker 4: it was a little bit misleading and Cincinnati one as
• 2:01:00
  Speaker 4: an underdog. Now they got to go all the way
• 2:01:02
  Speaker 4: out to, um, a Western environment here and play an
• 2:01:06
  Speaker 4: 11 PM game on their biological clock. That is not
• 2:01:09
  Speaker 4: easy to do. And it's their first road game of
• 2:01:11
  Speaker 4: the season and being fairly new to the big 12.
• 2:01:13
  Speaker 4: They're probably not that used to playing in Arizona either.
• 2:01:16
  Speaker 4: So that's a lot of negatives, right? First true road game,
• 2:01:20
  Speaker 4: bio clock spot. That's really negative here on the Pacific coast.
• 2:01:25
  Speaker 4: Plus it's a letdown spot for Cincinnati. I don't like
• 2:01:28
  Speaker 4: any of that for them. So obviously I'm leaning Arizona here. Now, Arizona,
• 2:01:33
  Speaker 4: they're coming off not covering against Washington State. And like
• 2:01:35
  Speaker 4: I said, they're in Washington State, so at least they're
• 2:01:38
  Speaker 4: staying kind of in the Pacific time zone. arena here
• 2:01:42
  Speaker 4: area of the country uh arizona's been not bad so
• 2:01:46
  Speaker 4: far i mean their only loss is a tough game
• 2:01:48
  Speaker 4: at byu where they were within one score pretty late
• 2:01:51
  Speaker 4: in that game so that was not a bad loss
• 2:01:53
  Speaker 4: for arizona and coming off a game where they didn't
• 2:01:56
  Speaker 4: cover and washington state was pretty close to them late
• 2:01:58
  Speaker 4: in the game i think it's gonna be more of
• 2:02:00
  Speaker 4: a bounce back for arizona here so yeah i like
• 2:02:03
  Speaker 4: arizona everything seems to line up pretty well uh for
• 2:02:06
  Speaker 4: that one uh let me see 66% of tickets, 69%
• 2:02:12
  Speaker 4: of the cash in Arizona. The line did drop a
• 2:02:15
  Speaker 4: little bit. That worries me about Arizona. The fact that
• 2:02:19
  Speaker 4: they're a little bit public here, it looks like, and
• 2:02:21
  Speaker 4: the fact that the line has not moved really. It's
• 2:02:23
  Speaker 4: been seven, but it's actually kind of ticked towards six
• 2:02:26
  Speaker 4: and a half. That worries me a little bit because
• 2:02:29
  Speaker 4: the odds maker is kind of telling you we're okay
• 2:02:31
  Speaker 4: with taking all this action on Arizona. 69% of the
• 2:02:34
  Speaker 4: cash on them, but I think Arizona's the right side, man.
• 2:02:37
  Speaker 4: You just heard my handicap on it. I think it's
• 2:02:39
  Speaker 4: one of the stronger... plays of the week, man. So
• 2:02:42
  Speaker 4: that's going to do it. Um, so the three games
• 2:02:45
  Speaker 4: that I like, uh, that did not make the cut
• 2:02:47
  Speaker 4: for me were Missouri plus the points against Florida. Um,
• 2:02:53
  Speaker 4: that one that I just talked about actually, I think makes, uh,
• 2:02:56
  Speaker 4: doesn't make the cut for me, but makes those, the
• 2:02:58
  Speaker 4: three plays that are close for me. Arizona is one
• 2:03:01
  Speaker 4: of them as well. Uh, probably the least of the
• 2:03:04
  Speaker 4: three though, especially given what the market read kind of
• 2:03:07
  Speaker 4: looks like there. Um, and what was the third one?
• 2:03:10
  Speaker 4: I talked about it somewhere earlier in the show. I
• 2:03:12
  Speaker 4: want to make sure I got this right. So Missouri,
• 2:03:13
  Speaker 4: I think is the strongest of the three. Um, Although
• 2:03:17
  Speaker 4: I'm not good at weighing the strengths of these really.
• 2:03:21
  Speaker 4: I'm not that good at that. I just see plays
• 2:03:26
  Speaker 4: and I'm like, oh yeah, that's strong enough to be
• 2:03:27
  Speaker 4: a play. Whereas if I have certain reservations, I don't know,
• 2:03:30
  Speaker 4: it's kind of like an intuition thing. Then I'll leave
• 2:03:32
  Speaker 4: it off my card. What was the other game I mentioned?
• 2:03:35
  Speaker 4: There definitely was one other one.
• 2:03:37
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 2:03:37
  Speaker 4: People will go back and find it. Was it earlier
• 2:03:43
  Speaker 4: in the show? I want to get this straight here. Man...
• 2:03:47
  Speaker 4: How do I not remember what it was now? It
• 2:03:49
  Speaker 4: felt really good. It was something involving... Oh, it was TCU. Yeah, yeah, yeah. TCU.
• 2:03:53
  Speaker 4: I like that one a lot, too. Yeah. Missouri and TCU.
• 2:03:57
  Speaker 4: I definitely like both of those a lot. Those are
• 2:03:59
  Speaker 4: the next two that I would put on my card.
• 2:04:01
  Speaker 4: Those probably are the last two that make my pick
• 2:04:04
  Speaker 4: seven entry because I unfortunately use Penn State as one, obviously.
• 2:04:07
  Speaker 4: But I'm going to use my four plays tomorrow, assuming
• 2:04:10
  Speaker 4: that the numbers are good enough in that game. And
• 2:04:12
  Speaker 4: then I'll probably use Missouri and.
• 2:04:18
  Speaker 4: Unless I, you know, I don't know, listen to some
• 2:04:21
  Speaker 4: professionals and, you know, if they have some really strong
• 2:04:26
  Speaker 4: opinion that sways me on one of the other games,
• 2:04:28
  Speaker 4: maybe I'll change it. But other than that, those are
• 2:04:30
  Speaker 4: going to be my additional two. So you got that information.
• 2:04:34
  Speaker 4: I liked... Arizona as well. But my actual plays are
• 2:04:38
  Speaker 4: going to be on Stanford plus the points. You can
• 2:04:40
  Speaker 4: get 14 on that, maybe 14 and a half Michigan
• 2:04:43
  Speaker 4: state plus nine and a half that one. I'm hoping
• 2:04:45
  Speaker 4: you can find a 10, but I don't know. Cause
• 2:04:47
  Speaker 4: the public doesn't seem like they want to really get
• 2:04:49
  Speaker 4: that involved on Wisconsin really.
• 2:04:52
  Speaker 2: So.
• 2:04:52
  Speaker 4: That one you might not be able to find it anymore.
• 2:04:55
  Speaker 4: Auburn plus 7. Hopefully you can find a 7 there.
• 2:04:57
  Speaker 4: The public is heavily against them, so you might be
• 2:05:00
  Speaker 4: able to get the 7 there. It pays to have
• 2:05:03
  Speaker 4: all the books available to you, man. I found one tonight.
• 2:05:06
  Speaker 4: Auburn and then Washington plus 9.5. Washington plus 9.5. That
• 2:05:13
  Speaker 4: one was never at the 10, so I don't know.
• 2:05:15
  Speaker 4: I don't think it ever will be. But those are
• 2:05:17
  Speaker 4: my four plays. I appreciate it. Charles and Mr. Pinsey,
• 2:05:22
  Speaker 4: I think you guys are in the chat tonight. Yes.
• 2:05:24
  Speaker 4: Thanks for the late night degenerate support here. Learned its
• 2:05:27
  Speaker 4: own on Twitter. Learned its own on Instagram. Like, subscribe
• 2:05:29
  Speaker 4: to the channel here. Listen on audio. We got another
• 2:05:32
  Speaker 4: weekend spike on audio. So I don't know why it
• 2:05:35
  Speaker 4: happens on Friday, especially because I hadn't put this show
• 2:05:39
  Speaker 4: out yet, obviously. So I don't know what's going on,
• 2:05:40
  Speaker 4: but let's get more weekend spikes. The spike needs to
• 2:05:43
  Speaker 4: continue for the NFL stuff. I don't know why it doesn't.
• 2:05:45
  Speaker 4: You figure that's what people really want to hear. And
• 2:05:48
  Speaker 4: then college football second. I don't know. Everybody likes to
• 2:05:50
  Speaker 4: bet football. But yeah, let's keep it going. Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
• 2:05:54
  Speaker 4: Bump it up. Pump it up. Whatever. All those numbers.
• 2:05:58
  Speaker 4: Let's go. covered in uke on youtube for my ukulele
• 2:06:02
  Speaker 4: stuff patreon.com slash learn to tote if you want to
• 2:06:05
  Speaker 4: throw me support that way loser cast every Tuesday night
• 2:06:11
  Speaker 4: and I think that's it because you know the Giants
• 2:06:16
  Speaker 4: G spot podcast I just don't think it's happening so
• 2:06:19
  Speaker 4: that's going to do it thanks guys peace got to
• 2:06:22
  Speaker 4: get some sleep and turn around and do it again
• 2:06:24
  Speaker 4: in the morning show will be easy though it's You know,
• 2:06:28
  Speaker 4: there'll probably be a big hockey board, though, so, oh, shit.
• 2:06:31
  Speaker 4: So maybe it won't be that easy, but I'll be
• 2:06:33
  Speaker 4: back for it. Peace.
• 2:06:37
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 2:06:41
  Speaker 4: Let somebody answer.
• 2:06:43
  Speaker 2: Let somebody know you do not have to lose this
• 2:06:50
  Speaker 2: round alone.
• 2:06:54
  Speaker 5: Oh.
• 2:06:56
  Speaker 2: Hold on, not tonight, not now.
• 2:07:02
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on Let me.
• 2:07:07
  Speaker 2: Pull you out That bad luck bites hard But it
• 2:07:15
  Speaker 2: don't get the crown Hold on Hold on, stay with
• 2:07:24
  Speaker 2: me now Hold on, hold on You're still here now
• 2:07:51
  Speaker 4: Thank you.