Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 14
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: It's the Favorites Podcast presented by Fandoel. It might be cold,
- 0:03Speaker 1: but the sports calendar is heating up, and there's no
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- 0:21Speaker 1: today to make every moment more this football season. Must
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- 0:35Speaker 1: Virginia one eight hundred, next step or text next step
- 0:39Speaker 1: to five three three four two in Arizona one eight
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- 0:45Speaker 1: CCPG dot org slash chat in Connecticut one eight hundred
- 0:49Speaker 1: nine with it in Indiana, visit ks gambling help dot
- 0:53Speaker 1: com in Kansas call one eight seven seven seven seven
- 0:56Speaker 1: zero stop in Louisiana one eight seven seven eight Hope
- 1:00Speaker 1: and why or text hope and why for three six
- 1:04Speaker 1: nine in New York Tennessee. Redline is one eight eight
- 1:07Speaker 1: nine called one eight hundred five to two four seven
- 1:10Speaker 1: zero zero in Wyoming, or visit www dot one gambler
- 1:15Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorite Into
- 1:27Speaker 1: the Podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chat Noman,
- 1:31Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. I am joined
- 1:35Speaker 1: as I am for every episode by my co host,
- 1:38Speaker 1: my companion, my compadre, my BFF, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello.
- 1:46Speaker 1: Saw him in shout how are you doing? From New
- 1:49Speaker 1: York brother brother Listen. We did this on Tuesday. We
- 1:54Speaker 1: recorded the podcast from our i'd say seventy complete studio, uh,
- 2:02Speaker 1: in our new office in New York City. UM, doing
- 2:06Speaker 1: it again today for those who are gonna see some
- 2:10Speaker 1: of the videos. Today, I'm in front of the big
- 2:12Speaker 1: screen and we got our Favorites logo up behind me,
- 2:15Speaker 1: which is super exciting. The good news is I can
- 2:18Speaker 1: sit here right now, I can do a podcast. Uh.
- 2:21Speaker 1: The sound is great. UM. Pretty soon we'll have real
- 2:25Speaker 1: lights up and we'll be doing live shows from here,
- 2:29Speaker 1: live podcast or podcast from here. You'll be here. It'll
- 2:33Speaker 1: be amazing. We can't I don't know about that last part,
- 2:35Speaker 1: but we'll say what's in a while, You and I
- 2:37Speaker 1: together will arrange because you're two hours away. Yeah, I do.
- 2:42Speaker 1: I hate New York though, you know I hate New York.
- 2:44Speaker 1: I don't like come New York. You like New York, Dude,
- 2:48Speaker 1: I lived in New York. You fine dining, you love
- 2:51Speaker 1: the posh life. I will tell you nothing. Last night
- 2:55Speaker 1: I did go to Araman place doesn't have a sign
- 2:59Speaker 1: on the door. There was a starting at five o'clock.
- 3:03Speaker 1: I don't even know what hault. I don't even know how.
- 3:05Speaker 1: I don't even know. I wouldn't know how to get there.
- 3:08Speaker 1: You gotta know somebody to go there. Huh, like someone
- 3:10Speaker 1: had to lead me there, they had gotten to get
- 3:14Speaker 1: in there. Um. But I went to Better early, got
- 3:17Speaker 1: up and did the rower in the hotel because you
- 3:19Speaker 1: know what, I'm dedicated to the lifestyle. We while you
- 3:22Speaker 1: were a gallivanting around New York City, you know, I
- 3:24Speaker 1: was getting Chad a lot of questions from the fans
- 3:26Speaker 1: of the show. Um, more questions than usual. I feel
- 3:30Speaker 1: like I shouldn't have admitted that I do check my
- 3:31Speaker 1: d m s every now and then, because now I've
- 3:33Speaker 1: opened the flood gates a little bit. Luckily, it wasn't
- 3:36Speaker 1: crazy Miami fans this week, though it seems like they
- 3:39Speaker 1: kind of ate their soup last weekend and they're a
- 3:41Speaker 1: little quiet now. But um, I think a lot of
- 3:44Speaker 1: these questions me and chat. Maybe we'll talk. We'll talk
- 3:46Speaker 1: about on the off season. I'll just stay off the top. Um,
- 3:50Speaker 1: I'm not here to tell you who to follow and
- 3:52Speaker 1: who to bet. Uh to me. Action Network has a
- 3:55Speaker 1: bunch of other football shows. I'll recommend them to you
- 3:59Speaker 1: because I worked for this company. I do think they
- 4:00Speaker 1: have good talent on them. But am I can go
- 4:02Speaker 1: out of my way and dash other people in other shows?
- 4:05Speaker 1: I won't, but I'll post stuff every now and then.
- 4:08Speaker 1: I just find funny. And I try to stay away
- 4:10Speaker 1: from Twitter because it's just not It's not a good
- 4:13Speaker 1: place because I disagree with a lot of what people say,
- 4:15Speaker 1: and that's just that's kind of how I view a
- 4:18Speaker 1: lot of life. I've always been that way, where I'm
- 4:19Speaker 1: kind of a I am I know him a little different,
- 4:22Speaker 1: but I'm definitely one of those people that I always
- 4:23Speaker 1: view things view things different than other people. So Twitter
- 4:26Speaker 1: is not the best place for me because it's kind
- 4:28Speaker 1: of a place where everyone wants to agree together. Um,
- 4:30Speaker 1: so I would say, yeah, if you're asking me what
- 4:33Speaker 1: people to follow Sunday six Pack, it's a show that
- 4:37Speaker 1: actually never puts out Stucky and Chris. It's a good show.
- 4:40Speaker 1: They're getting you good info. Are they gonna win every week? No,
- 4:43Speaker 1: they're not frauds. They're gonna give you real bets every week.
- 4:45Speaker 1: So people are asking me all these questions like is
- 4:48Speaker 1: this guy fraud? Is this guy of fraud? You guys
- 4:50Speaker 1: know my view. I told you nine or some of
- 4:52Speaker 1: these people are giving out picks. Do not do this professionally?
- 4:55Speaker 1: And what I mean by that is do you make
- 4:57Speaker 1: your living? Because that's different than be in the media
- 5:00Speaker 1: and giving out picks where the media that's how they're
- 5:02Speaker 1: making their money, not making their money by their bets.
- 5:04Speaker 1: So that would be something to look out for. But
- 5:07Speaker 1: am I gonna bash people. No, I just would be
- 5:09Speaker 1: weary of these Twitter people, especially people selling picks on Twitter.
- 5:12Speaker 1: It's just it's a it's a risky world. So I
- 5:14Speaker 1: got a lot of questions about that, and I just
- 5:17Speaker 1: try to point people to action. We were giving out
- 5:19Speaker 1: free and for every week. Hell, I'm giving out a
- 5:21Speaker 1: written article every week that's free dude, it's like thirty
- 5:25Speaker 1: and twelve, like it's just been winning crazy and that's
- 5:27Speaker 1: not on purpose, like I'm just giving out good in
- 5:29Speaker 1: for every week. But that's what I mean. There's free
- 5:31Speaker 1: stuff out there, so to me, all your questions about
- 5:34Speaker 1: who to follow, what people to bet, as long as
- 5:37Speaker 1: it's free, I don't care. Do whatever you want. But
- 5:38Speaker 1: the man someone starts charging you online and they're not
- 5:41Speaker 1: hitting above a fifty percent clip. That's my biggest issues.
- 5:44Speaker 1: So just be weary on Twitter of these people selling picks.
- 5:47Speaker 1: That's my biggest advice to people. I'm really glad you're
- 5:50Speaker 1: saying that we didn't script that at all. Uh No,
- 5:53Speaker 1: I just got a lot of questions. I don't remember
- 5:55Speaker 1: what I even said on Tuesday, but I don't know
- 5:57Speaker 1: what you said either. I just speak sometimes I can't
- 6:00Speaker 1: remember anything after last night. Um uh. You're referencing Chris
- 6:06Speaker 1: Raybond and Stucky on The Action Network a podcast and
- 6:08Speaker 1: they will do the Attack, which is sort of the
- 6:10Speaker 1: anchor that show. Mitchell produces it. It's a brilliant show.
- 6:13Speaker 1: It's one of my favorites religious listening for me. I
- 6:16Speaker 1: highly recommend it. I referenced it often on this show
- 6:20Speaker 1: because it's that good and it's free, and it's free
- 6:25Speaker 1: not asking you to pay for this stuff, folks. We
- 6:28Speaker 1: believe in the product we're putting out. We believe in
- 6:30Speaker 1: the value of the information. We believe in giving you
- 6:32Speaker 1: the advantage. We believe in the data and the research
- 6:34Speaker 1: we have at Action Network, UM, and the rigor that
- 6:39Speaker 1: everybody on our team puts into making the decisions they make.
- 6:44Speaker 1: They're not just sitting down at a computer saying who
- 6:46Speaker 1: do I like tonight? That I can sort of say,
- 6:48Speaker 1: all right, it's of action from people watching me on
- 6:52Speaker 1: social media. Um, all right, listen, reminder foxhol Broncos plus
- 6:59Speaker 1: nine and a half. Uh, Simon says, Giants plus seven.
- 7:02Speaker 1: Chad went with the Lions minus two and a half
- 7:05Speaker 1: in the exact decision. We owe people of big balls,
- 7:08Speaker 1: we owe people scoot Roulette. Before we get to any
- 7:11Speaker 1: of that, let's get too sharp. Hello, who's there, I'm
- 7:19Speaker 1: talking They Yeah, in a week of sharp cause of
- 7:28Speaker 1: just a lot of disagreements, it feels like a lot
- 7:30Speaker 1: of guys on different sides. Um, there's a handful of
- 7:34Speaker 1: games that, like we'll talk about right now that a
- 7:36Speaker 1: lot of guys were aligned on. I was just I
- 7:38Speaker 1: was just shocked at all the split decisions. And that's
- 7:40Speaker 1: kind of how it goes. And there's a bunch of
- 7:42Speaker 1: teams on bye weeks and you're getting so late in
- 7:43Speaker 1: the season that people really get you know, staunched on
- 7:46Speaker 1: their decisions and their positions are playing. So the guys
- 7:49Speaker 1: last week we hit on the vikings. They liked the
- 7:51Speaker 1: vikings again this week and they've been taking the two
- 7:54Speaker 1: and a half and when it touched three just for
- 7:55Speaker 1: a little bit a lot of books, they grabbed it
- 7:57Speaker 1: right away. So that's one of the more split games
- 7:59Speaker 1: this week where I felt really good about the lines um.
- 8:02Speaker 1: We talked about that already a little bit of a pause.
- 8:06Speaker 1: Uh still, I will break it down. That's one of
- 8:08Speaker 1: those games that where it's like, I see where the
- 8:11Speaker 1: decisions are coming from because this is an interesting matchup
- 8:15Speaker 1: between two teams. That match we'll get we'll get deeper
- 8:17Speaker 1: into it. Yeah, So that was one. But for the
- 8:20Speaker 1: three that we all read upon, um, really smart group
- 8:23Speaker 1: I know came in heavy on the Broncos. No shocker
- 8:28Speaker 1: to me. That's a game we'll we'll dive into more.
- 8:30Speaker 1: But that may just made sense as soon as that
- 8:32Speaker 1: number came out, Um, the look at might have been
- 8:35Speaker 1: plus four. The fact that a shot out with the
- 8:37Speaker 1: nine nine and a half just just I just knew
- 8:40Speaker 1: that the pros would be on it. We already talked
- 8:42Speaker 1: about the public is gonna hammer the Chiefs. This is
- 8:44Speaker 1: gonna be the most seven point tease game of the week.
- 8:47Speaker 1: So no surprise, very specific. There's a very specific trend
- 8:51Speaker 1: developing that that I never actually thought of before that
- 8:57Speaker 1: is coming to light this week that I do want
- 8:59Speaker 1: us to get into when we talk about the Broncos,
- 9:01Speaker 1: and I bet we'll talk about this other game too,
- 9:05Speaker 1: but I'm sorry I cut you off. One that's probably
- 9:08Speaker 1: gonna be in our big balls bet the Chargers. A
- 9:11Speaker 1: little foreshadowing, Um, the pros love that game. That's that's
- 9:14Speaker 1: a game they're gonna hammer all week. A little disappointed.
- 9:17Speaker 1: Split game this week the Giants Eagles. I thought they
- 9:19Speaker 1: would be all over that Giants number. I felt like
- 9:21Speaker 1: that was a great number. That's a split game. I know,
- 9:23Speaker 1: a really smart group that came in heavy on the
- 9:25Speaker 1: Eagles as soon as they touched six and a half. Well,
- 9:28Speaker 1: it's still sitting there. A bunch of different books of
- 9:29Speaker 1: sitting six and a half, so interesting, interesting number this
- 9:32Speaker 1: week that Eagles Giants game and then the conscientious last
- 9:35Speaker 1: one for a game the pros love that Chad was
- 9:38Speaker 1: actually the other side of or I don't remember if
- 9:40Speaker 1: you even picked the side on it, but Arizona. Really
- 9:43Speaker 1: smart group came in head on Arizona. I don't know
- 9:46Speaker 1: if I can do it. I really don't where It's like,
- 9:49Speaker 1: it's just that Kingsbury effect of him in December, him
- 9:52Speaker 1: at home, all the bad juju with Kyler. But I
- 9:55Speaker 1: get exactly what these guys are talking about, the struggles
- 9:58Speaker 1: of the Patriots, versity's running quarterback acts, and the fact
- 10:01Speaker 1: that they are healthy. Marquess Brown is about is playing,
- 10:05Speaker 1: I mean Hopkins since he's coming back, he's been incredible
- 10:07Speaker 1: for that. So the fact that has both his receivers
- 10:10Speaker 1: are coming off a bye, you expect Connors to be
- 10:12Speaker 1: back to running back. Um, I get it. I get
- 10:15Speaker 1: the love prayers, and I just if me Chad are
- 10:18Speaker 1: going to make our five pick this week and play
- 10:20Speaker 1: our five, I just even if Chad was all in
- 10:22Speaker 1: on Airaz, I just don't know that you're talking to
- 10:24Speaker 1: even I do know A really smart group is that
- 10:26Speaker 1: on it. I'll tell you what we generally like to
- 10:29Speaker 1: avoid Monday night games just because of the weight is yeah, right,
- 10:35Speaker 1: unless we feel like we got unless it's you know,
- 10:39Speaker 1: unless it's the Niners against the Dolphins like last week,
- 10:42Speaker 1: or the Cows against the Vikings a few weeks ago.
- 10:45Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to Final five on that.
- 10:48Speaker 1: I we love the Cardinals for the same reasons you
- 10:52Speaker 1: just talked about against the Chargers a couple of weeks ago,
- 10:55Speaker 1: and the Chargers won that game on a two point
- 10:57Speaker 1: conversion at the very end. Um, but we were all
- 11:01Speaker 1: over the Cardinals as underdogs because Hollywood Brown is back,
- 11:05Speaker 1: because DeAndre Hopkinson playing so well, because they were finally
- 11:09Speaker 1: fully loaded offensively minus Zackert. So I don't mind. I
- 11:13Speaker 1: don't mind the Colonels in that spot. Um, I do
- 11:16Speaker 1: totally get it. Uh, let's I definitely want to talk
- 11:20Speaker 1: about the Lions for a second. Let's talk about the
- 11:22Speaker 1: Broncos and the Chiefs because they love that number. Yeah
- 11:26Speaker 1: hmmy with the trend you heard. Yeah, So what's funny
- 11:30Speaker 1: is like you do these shows on AMP and people
- 11:32Speaker 1: are listening. Now we know, we know that we have
- 11:36Speaker 1: an audience that likes betting. We know that when you
- 11:40Speaker 1: listen on AMP, you like betting even more. So what
- 11:43Speaker 1: was interesting was that game. We started talking about it
- 11:46Speaker 1: on Tuesday. Was it nine and a half? Before I
- 11:49Speaker 1: was done talking about it, it was at nine. Now
- 11:53Speaker 1: it's been bad. Up, back up, back up. Um. Of
- 11:59Speaker 1: course I can be part the sudden injury, right. I
- 12:02Speaker 1: think Sutton got put out, so a couple of yeah,
- 12:04Speaker 1: that could be part of it. It could be, but
- 12:06Speaker 1: of course I got nervous on Tuesday as soon as
- 12:08Speaker 1: I saw I hit it at nine. Now it's a
- 12:10Speaker 1: nine and a half, which sucks. Uh. I think the
- 12:14Speaker 1: same is true of the Giants and the Broncos. They're
- 12:18Speaker 1: playing teams that have been so dominant this year that
- 12:23Speaker 1: you get to the end of the year and the
- 12:25Speaker 1: flaws are pasted over a little bit, and so you
- 12:31Speaker 1: know the inflation is going to be so high from
- 12:34Speaker 1: the books that you almost automatically have to bet the
- 12:37Speaker 1: other side because the books are expecting the public to
- 12:43Speaker 1: come in. And I think with the Broncos specifically, we
- 12:46Speaker 1: talked about this, Patrick Mahomes is so dominant the end
- 12:49Speaker 1: of the year, the numbers get so big they've become
- 12:52Speaker 1: impossible to cover and that's what's happened to him, Like
- 12:54Speaker 1: he's under five hundred against the spread. Um, you know,
- 12:58Speaker 1: so in this spot and so um, I still love
- 13:02Speaker 1: the Broncos. Yeah, this is a game said that I've
- 13:05Speaker 1: been losing sleepover and I just like I woke up
- 13:07Speaker 1: and I swept the other night about it. Um, I
- 13:10Speaker 1: must have a really weird intention. But I literally woke
- 13:12Speaker 1: up and it was just like, why am I betting
- 13:14Speaker 1: the Broncos. And it's the same thing like last week,
- 13:16Speaker 1: But it's it's the right spot to take it. So
- 13:19Speaker 1: the game doesn't really scare me as much as that
- 13:23Speaker 1: the fear is going to be Well, the Bronco is
- 13:25Speaker 1: going to move the ball, and I believe they will.
- 13:27Speaker 1: I think the Chiefs they could still be run on
- 13:30Speaker 1: and that's what the Broncos be able to do. Yeah,
- 13:32Speaker 1: and my word that suttons out. That's kind of a
- 13:35Speaker 1: big deal. But at the same time, he hasn't really
- 13:37Speaker 1: done that much as you Jerry Judy right, So to me,
- 13:41Speaker 1: Jerry Judy, he's been the weapons. So UM felt confidence
- 13:44Speaker 1: that the fact that the Pros were on I knew
- 13:46Speaker 1: they'd be on it. Though it's a divisional home dog
- 13:49Speaker 1: bigger than a seven. Yeah, I'm with you, chat, They're
- 13:52Speaker 1: not as bad as they've looked, But Russell Wilson actually
- 13:55Speaker 1: might be. He really might be this bad. So this
- 13:57Speaker 1: is one of these bets where I'm kind of betting
- 13:59Speaker 1: mainly on the defense and trusting this offense will be
- 14:02Speaker 1: able to start moving the ball against the Chief's defense
- 14:04Speaker 1: is just young. They just had young pieces in the secondary.
- 14:06Speaker 1: We've seen teams wo run the ball and then of
- 14:08Speaker 1: late so um one of those games where if Russ
- 14:13Speaker 1: had just shown me anything the last couple of weeks,
- 14:15Speaker 1: this would be one of my bigger bets. But it
- 14:16Speaker 1: won't be just because of that. So for this week
- 14:19Speaker 1: off me and Chad play five. This would be one
- 14:21Speaker 1: of the five, no doubt, no brainer, automatically locked in
- 14:24Speaker 1: kind of game, just because I have to play this
- 14:26Speaker 1: spot every time and have to take this number every time.
- 14:28Speaker 1: And I feel like Chad he touched on a little bit.
- 14:30Speaker 1: But the Mahomes against the number of thing is real.
- 14:34Speaker 1: If he's under a three, I get the math, like
- 14:37Speaker 1: like we went against it last week taking the Bengals,
- 14:39Speaker 1: But historically that's when you want to back Mahomes so
- 14:42Speaker 1: these big numbers, pat just doesn't cover like they just
- 14:44Speaker 1: playing these close, sluggish games, and that you expecting divisional games.
- 14:48Speaker 1: So I don't want to hear ship from you people.
- 14:50Speaker 1: We get burned on this one. You just have to
- 14:52Speaker 1: do it. You have to make this bet. This is
- 14:53Speaker 1: what it's like betting on this professional We're not gonna
- 14:56Speaker 1: win every bet, but over time, like this number is,
- 14:59Speaker 1: you will win, will profit. So this is one of
- 15:01Speaker 1: those opportunities, opportunities. We just played the number. I don't
- 15:05Speaker 1: even think about it. I don't wanna watch this game
- 15:07Speaker 1: if you can't handle it, because I'm not, because I
- 15:08Speaker 1: can't handle Russell Wilson anymore. But just trust the number.
- 15:12Speaker 1: Here's what I would say. We were super smart. I
- 15:14Speaker 1: didn't lose a wink of sleep over betting the Rams
- 15:17Speaker 1: last week or betting the Broncos last week. And but
- 15:21Speaker 1: we didn't do You know why that is chad, because
- 15:25Speaker 1: I lose sleep over other things because I'm running goddamn
- 15:28Speaker 1: operation here. Put six figures on Broncos and then see
- 15:31Speaker 1: if you sleep well, let me know how that goes
- 15:33Speaker 1: for you. Maybe I'll do that. Yeah, it won't. You won't.
- 15:37Speaker 1: You won't because you won't be able to sleep. It's
- 15:38Speaker 1: a horrible feeling. It's a horrible thing. Beired a weird
- 15:41Speaker 1: way to be okay with it. Uh, but whether it's
- 15:46Speaker 1: six dollars or six we didn't like, that's fair. We separated,
- 15:53Speaker 1: We separated. You know you you were really smart last week.
- 15:56Speaker 1: I give you credit. You came after me and said,
- 16:00Speaker 1: as the season goes on, you've got to change your
- 16:02Speaker 1: thinking on these teams. And uh, we use that to say, Yeah,
- 16:09Speaker 1: we're gonna bet the Rams. We're gonna bet the Broncos
- 16:12Speaker 1: because of the number in the situation they're in. Bet
- 16:14Speaker 1: in the Texans even though it's a similar situation, or
- 16:17Speaker 1: not bet in the Colts. Right, we made the choice
- 16:19Speaker 1: on the two big dogs. We're gonna bet. So we
- 16:22Speaker 1: did the Broncos. We're gonna do it again this week
- 16:24Speaker 1: the Giants. I still think you made the best point
- 16:27Speaker 1: on Tuesday. Jalen Hurst just isn't the same quarterback on
- 16:30Speaker 1: the road. And then you know, talking about Action Network
- 16:33Speaker 1: Pot and Stucky in Raybon, Stucky had a really good
- 16:35Speaker 1: point this morning. Since the Eagles on the road are
- 16:39Speaker 1: the worst team in the NFL against the spread, and
- 16:40Speaker 1: that's when Jalen Hurts became a starter late in the year.
- 16:44Speaker 1: So this is a team you look back at their schedule,
- 16:47Speaker 1: They're only good win on the road is against the
- 16:48Speaker 1: Lions in Week one, barely beat the Colts. Cowboys Cooper
- 16:52Speaker 1: Rush Carson Wentz led Washington. They beat the Texans, but
- 16:57Speaker 1: they they beat him by double digits, But it was
- 16:59Speaker 1: a lay double digit sort of front door cover cover
- 17:05Speaker 1: was it for? That's right? The Texans covered, That's right,
- 17:07Speaker 1: that's right. So, um, just not a very good team
- 17:11Speaker 1: on the road. Yeah, And that was honestly the part
- 17:13Speaker 1: of it. Another part of it was just the fact
- 17:15Speaker 1: that we talked about that's lines inflated because they just
- 17:17Speaker 1: beat the crap by Tennessee like four and a half.
- 17:20Speaker 1: Five just made sense for this divisional matchup. Yes, the
- 17:23Speaker 1: Eagles the superior team, but in divisional games like this,
- 17:26Speaker 1: especially in December, teams really just no exactly exactly what
- 17:30Speaker 1: each other wanted to do. And that's gonna be this,
- 17:32Speaker 1: that's gonna be what the Giants gonna be so well
- 17:33Speaker 1: preparing for this game. It's like they played against the
- 17:36Speaker 1: scheme now with Sirianni for two years now or three years,
- 17:39Speaker 1: so they are a guest two years, but they just
- 17:42Speaker 1: know exactly what the scheme is gonna do. So looking
- 17:44Speaker 1: at the game, I love it at seven. The six
- 17:47Speaker 1: and a half does definitely give you pause because that's
- 17:48Speaker 1: moving to another keynomer. Right, still take it, but you
- 17:51Speaker 1: have sevens out there, so just make sure you grab that.
- 17:53Speaker 1: We talked about it. That's why I gave this time
- 17:55Speaker 1: and says I just thought the pros that eventually bet it.
- 17:57Speaker 1: I was just shocked to hear that the pros weren't
- 17:59Speaker 1: loved of love it as much as I did. Like, again,
- 18:01Speaker 1: they love that Broncoes way more, they love the Chargers
- 18:04Speaker 1: game way more. I love those games too. I just
- 18:07Speaker 1: thought this was a really a good number, just an
- 18:09Speaker 1: inflated number and a matchup of I get it. The Giants,
- 18:14Speaker 1: they have struggled down here teams, I've kind of figured
- 18:16Speaker 1: out what they do, but Daniel Jones is still able
- 18:19Speaker 1: to produce, Like he's still able to make those runs
- 18:21Speaker 1: on third down, Like they've kind of figured out what
- 18:23Speaker 1: works for them and he makes it work. Sam goes
- 18:26Speaker 1: with the Barkley stuff. So um, I get why people
- 18:30Speaker 1: are like, well, the drops down to six, would you
- 18:32Speaker 1: flip to the Eagles. I really wouldn't because I do
- 18:34Speaker 1: make this number four and a half. So that's one
- 18:36Speaker 1: of those eaves that drops down to six. I'll still
- 18:37Speaker 1: be on it. I just want you to get the
- 18:39Speaker 1: good value right now at seven. Uh, all right, the Lions.
- 18:45Speaker 1: I'm not sure why anyone's back in the Vikings right now.
- 18:49Speaker 1: It just the Lions are a better team. They just are. Yeah,
- 18:54Speaker 1: look at the numbers. They're just a better team. They're
- 18:57Speaker 1: a better team getting less than a field at home.
- 19:03Speaker 1: My first pause was, I just this is why I
- 19:06Speaker 1: think might try to stay away from social media, but
- 19:09Speaker 1: a little piece of me would die every time when
- 19:11Speaker 1: someone tweet did you see the Lions who are five
- 19:14Speaker 1: and seven or minus two against the ten and one
- 19:17Speaker 1: or eleven and one Vikings, whatever the record is, the Vikings.
- 19:20Speaker 1: And I get where these people are coming from. Um
- 19:23Speaker 1: outsiders are looking at the sports pudding landscape. But that's
- 19:26Speaker 1: always bad when people are talking about these things, and
- 19:29Speaker 1: then it's getting hyped up even more, and now the
- 19:31Speaker 1: public is like, well, obviously, because the troits a better
- 19:33Speaker 1: team right now, like what you were just saying. And
- 19:35Speaker 1: that's my fear, is that the Vikings have not been
- 19:38Speaker 1: playing well and they've been winning. They're gonna start playing well,
- 19:42Speaker 1: Like eventually that will they will start clicking, they will
- 19:44Speaker 1: start putting good games together. They sure as I'll stole
- 19:47Speaker 1: that game last week. I think we all can agree
- 19:48Speaker 1: on that one, and the New England the week before that,
- 19:51Speaker 1: I felt like they still it's so, I'm still with you.
- 19:54Speaker 1: I think the Traits the better team. We have the
- 19:57Speaker 1: indoor factor, which is a big deal to me. You
- 19:59Speaker 1: get off indoors. He's a totally different player. Swift is
- 20:03Speaker 1: getting healthier. I'm on st. Brown planning. It's crazy to
- 20:07Speaker 1: say he's playing at the same level as Jefferson. If
- 20:09Speaker 1: you need a guy to get open like Jefferson can
- 20:11Speaker 1: get open, I'm on st. Brown has the footwork and
- 20:14Speaker 1: the speed to get open. So I love this matchup
- 20:17Speaker 1: so much, and I'm just I'm not gonna budge. I
- 20:19Speaker 1: might be a little stubborn here taking the line still
- 20:21Speaker 1: because I know a really smart group that came in
- 20:23Speaker 1: on the Vikings. But I feel like you chat. I
- 20:25Speaker 1: feel like the Vikings are just way, way too lucky.
- 20:27Speaker 1: I've been very fortunate a lot this these last couple
- 20:30Speaker 1: of weeks. So I could get caught and they could
- 20:32Speaker 1: put up a great game against Detroit Troit Dame. It's
- 20:35Speaker 1: probably coming off their best game of the season. I mean,
- 20:36Speaker 1: they flat out dominated the Jaguars last week defensively and offensively.
- 20:40Speaker 1: But um, I have to do it. I've just it
- 20:44Speaker 1: just feels like this offense fully healthy Detroit is what
- 20:48Speaker 1: we envisioned in August. They have a good offensive line,
- 20:51Speaker 1: they have really good weapons of the school positions. They
- 20:53Speaker 1: can move the ball. The Vikings can't stop anyone. The
- 20:56Speaker 1: Jets part of the ball one time last week. So
- 20:58Speaker 1: we we might be walking into a chat, but I
- 21:00Speaker 1: can't avoid it, like something might change by Sunday. But
- 21:02Speaker 1: I can tell you right now, I've already bet this
- 21:03Speaker 1: number and I'm locked in on Detroit. I will say
- 21:06Speaker 1: that one thing that worries me. This line was at
- 21:10Speaker 1: one and a half. On Tuesday morning, it was a
- 21:13Speaker 1: two and a half, and Tuesday after afternoon it's back
- 21:15Speaker 1: down to one and a half. So clearly, whatever group
- 21:19Speaker 1: you're talking about is moving this number back in the
- 21:22Speaker 1: direction of the Vikings. And if it makes you feel better,
- 21:25Speaker 1: they don't even take the number. They just took the
- 21:26Speaker 1: money on because if you look at historically Minnesota this year,
- 21:30Speaker 1: they don't cover close games. They went close games. So
- 21:34Speaker 1: they're one of these teams that if they're gonna lose,
- 21:36Speaker 1: they're gonna get blown that all out, like the Eagle
- 21:37Speaker 1: to blew them out, Dallas blew them out. That's the
- 21:40Speaker 1: kind of team they've been this year. So it was
- 21:42Speaker 1: interesting even take the two and a half. They just
- 21:44Speaker 1: took the money a one. There are Let's talk about
- 21:47Speaker 1: the Chargers for a second, and then there's two teams
- 21:49Speaker 1: in similar point spread ranges that have similar sort of personalities. Right,
- 21:56Speaker 1: but let's talk about the Chargers plus three and a
- 21:58Speaker 1: half and that's a big o. Was Joe's game? With
- 22:01Speaker 1: all the money on the Dolphins? What are people saying
- 22:03Speaker 1: about the Chargers? Why my big ball is better the week?
- 22:06Speaker 1: If you're with it, brother, big ball better the week.
- 22:11Speaker 1: I mean, Chargers are just left for dead right now.
- 22:13Speaker 1: But I pretty much feels like everyone they're just a
- 22:15Speaker 1: team that they weren't what people expected they would be
- 22:18Speaker 1: coming into the year. Herbert, which what I thought in
- 22:21Speaker 1: the year he was just an inconsistent quarterback. He's still
- 22:23Speaker 1: that instant, inconsistent quarterback. But now I'm starting to think
- 22:27Speaker 1: more of along the lines of it's just bad coaching,
- 22:29Speaker 1: because I see the time and time again every week
- 22:33Speaker 1: he keeps being put in these bad positions where if
- 22:35Speaker 1: it's third and five, they drop up play as if
- 22:38Speaker 1: it's third and twelve and it doesn't work. And then
- 22:40Speaker 1: when it's third and twelve they drop a play that
- 22:41Speaker 1: it's like third and twenty and it does work. It's
- 22:43Speaker 1: just a very bizarre Ran offense. UM. I look at
- 22:47Speaker 1: this game on the sense that Miami is just clearly overrated.
- 22:51Speaker 1: We saw that they were overrated, that they've they've prospered
- 22:54Speaker 1: playing bad teams. And it feels like the same exact
- 22:58Speaker 1: thing when we took the Bears against this team Miami
- 23:00Speaker 1: a bunch of weeks ago, where we knew the barriess,
- 23:03Speaker 1: we're gonna put up points, we new fields, we're gonna
- 23:04Speaker 1: move the ball against Miami defense. I had that same
- 23:07Speaker 1: feeling here with the Chargers. I just have no doubt
- 23:09Speaker 1: the Charge about to move the ball against Miami defense.
- 23:12Speaker 1: And for the offensive side, yes, I know the Charges
- 23:17Speaker 1: have struggled against the run, but I can see them
- 23:19Speaker 1: be able to get pressure against two in this game,
- 23:21Speaker 1: and you factor in wildle might miss this game as
- 23:23Speaker 1: well as their armstead at the tackle position, two major injuries.
- 23:26Speaker 1: Those are two Pro Bowl players for this Miami team,
- 23:29Speaker 1: two guys that are the reason they have their record
- 23:31Speaker 1: they do now. So man, if those both those guys
- 23:33Speaker 1: are out, this would be a no brainer play. But
- 23:36Speaker 1: already love it. If you're getting the three and a half,
- 23:38Speaker 1: you just have to grab it. It's a it's a
- 23:39Speaker 1: big home dog. Numbers should be closer at two or one.
- 23:43Speaker 1: It's just gonna be inflated. Just because the Chargers have
- 23:45Speaker 1: disappointed people so much this year, people expect to Mount
- 23:48Speaker 1: Miami to bounce back. This kind of feels like not
- 23:51Speaker 1: for their season, but it does. I think it's for
- 23:53Speaker 1: the Charger seasons. Chargers, No, they can't drop this game.
- 23:55Speaker 1: I believe they're five D right now. They need this
- 23:57Speaker 1: game to stay in that wild card contention. So both
- 24:00Speaker 1: teams equally as desperate. Give me the bigger dog at
- 24:02Speaker 1: three and a half. Reminder for people, just because I
- 24:06Speaker 1: love using it, I'm in a legal state. I went
- 24:08Speaker 1: to the Action Network Gap. I picked the Chargers plus
- 24:11Speaker 1: three and a half, quick slipped it directly to FanDuel
- 24:14Speaker 1: opened up a bet slip for me. I put my
- 24:17Speaker 1: bed in, I tapped done. It took me fifteen seconds.
- 24:21Speaker 1: Didn't have to decide what game I wanted to bet.
- 24:25Speaker 1: Open up Vanduel, Go to the NFL tabs, scroll for
- 24:28Speaker 1: the game. Eliminated four steps by using quick slip through
- 24:32Speaker 1: action network love it um. Right now, the Jags are
- 24:38Speaker 1: plus four against the Titans. The Panthers are four and
- 24:41Speaker 1: a half against the Seahawks. Two teams similar, sort of
- 24:48Speaker 1: not good, middle of the road, low expectations, bad losses.
- 24:55Speaker 1: Um as those four point underdogs on the road. Wise
- 25:01Speaker 1: guys are on both the Jags and the Panthers. What
- 25:05Speaker 1: do we think of those games right now? Yeah, the Jaguars,
- 25:09Speaker 1: I don't really understand why they're they're hitting that number.
- 25:11Speaker 1: I know a really really smart group that took that
- 25:13Speaker 1: number in the sense that they think will be a
- 25:15Speaker 1: close game. And so how the hell do you bet
- 25:17Speaker 1: that without knowing what the hell's going on? Trevor Lawrence,
- 25:19Speaker 1: No one knows what's going on, Trevor Lawrence. I know
- 25:21Speaker 1: you guys don't so your bet. Maybe they're just taking
- 25:23Speaker 1: a position they'll buy out if it's a bad number.
- 25:25Speaker 1: But I feel like that's when you take Tennessee and
- 25:27Speaker 1: then you buy out when if he if he does
- 25:29Speaker 1: play whatever it is, because you could have got three
- 25:31Speaker 1: and a half and we gave it out on Tuesday.
- 25:33Speaker 1: Now it's four. Still, don't hate grabbing it just in
- 25:36Speaker 1: case he is out, because I could see a big movement.
- 25:38Speaker 1: I mean I should just people want to give Trevor Lawrence.
- 25:40Speaker 1: He's been actually playing really well this year, so UM
- 25:44Speaker 1: to me, I look at that game where yeah, I
- 25:48Speaker 1: wish I could be on the Jaguars, but it's just
- 25:50Speaker 1: there's there's too many things pointing me towards this Titans team. Um,
- 25:54Speaker 1: and the next one with Caroline. I know, I know
- 25:57Speaker 1: you were probably gonna love Carolina too, and I want
- 26:00Speaker 1: to back it. My just my fear as a Sam
- 26:02Speaker 1: Donald on the road against this twelve man like he
- 26:05Speaker 1: just he's a different quarterback when the lights gape bright
- 26:08Speaker 1: and the pressure is on them. Um, I gotta know
- 26:10Speaker 1: Sho're taking him at home at one o'clock in Carolina
- 26:12Speaker 1: when it's all good and easy. But this is this
- 26:15Speaker 1: is a tough spot to play. Um Seahawks. They've struggled
- 26:19Speaker 1: down the road here. I mean, Rams, they almost stole
- 26:23Speaker 1: that game last week. And we just talked about the
- 26:24Speaker 1: Rams a little bit ago chat. They are banged up
- 26:27Speaker 1: and terrible, So that is they fear right now that
- 26:30Speaker 1: the Seahawks, they've kind of turned to the team we
- 26:32Speaker 1: all thought they were gonna be coming to the year, right,
- 26:34Speaker 1: they were gonna be one of the worst teams in football?
- 26:37Speaker 1: What held them up? As Gino, you know Smith, He's
- 26:40Speaker 1: playing it at a top five quarterback level all season.
- 26:43Speaker 1: I mean, you go through all the numbers he's leading,
- 26:44Speaker 1: then I found a lot of categories. Um, so yeah,
- 26:47Speaker 1: just looking at it, it's game where I'm just gonna
- 26:49Speaker 1: keep trusting Gino back in the Seahawks. But now when
- 26:53Speaker 1: I throw into our contest, it's just just too many
- 26:55Speaker 1: smart guys. I know on Carolina it's a little split. Um,
- 26:59Speaker 1: no real feel for the one, but I just I
- 27:01Speaker 1: just like the Seahawks defense matchup against Sam Donald. Well,
- 27:04Speaker 1: I'll tell you right now, this is one of the
- 27:06Speaker 1: biggest pro Joe discrepancies we have. I'm looking at the
- 27:10Speaker 1: at the splits um of the money right now on
- 27:15Speaker 1: Carolina the bets on Seattle. So I'll tell you this much,
- 27:19Speaker 1: it's not all pro because there's number one from three
- 27:21Speaker 1: and a half to four and a half. A lot
- 27:22Speaker 1: of books. There's clearly a smart group out there hitting
- 27:25Speaker 1: the Seahawks team. Uh yeah, no, that's right. And it
- 27:31Speaker 1: was a big move, um going from three and a
- 27:34Speaker 1: half to four. And that's with like Kenneth Kenneth Walker
- 27:37Speaker 1: might be out, like they might be down both running backs.
- 27:40Speaker 1: Um why, I mean, I guess people are taking the
- 27:43Speaker 1: same position you are. It's the same Donald thing. I think. Yeah,
- 27:48Speaker 1: I don't feel like like, look if we're putting five in.
- 27:51Speaker 1: We we said on Tuesday we might be doing the
- 27:53Speaker 1: bye and then we said at the end, you never know.
- 27:57Speaker 1: We kind of love some of these games, Like I
- 27:59Speaker 1: feel great at about the Giants, I feel great about
- 28:01Speaker 1: the Lions. I feel great about the Broncos. I feel
- 28:03Speaker 1: great about the Chargers. One more game I want to
- 28:05Speaker 1: talk about. Uh, Browns are now plus six and a half.
- 28:11Speaker 1: So the numbers going up since we declared our love
- 28:14Speaker 1: for the Browns against Yeah, we're gonna lose money and
- 28:18Speaker 1: it's another game. We have to take the Browns. I mean,
- 28:20Speaker 1: we don't have a choice. That's just a big inflated
- 28:23Speaker 1: number in a divisional game. I just the factor I
- 28:26Speaker 1: hate is the Watson factor. He looked so horrible last week.
- 28:30Speaker 1: He looked so rusty. I mean there's under throws. He
- 28:32Speaker 1: just man, he looked like a guy that didn't played
- 28:35Speaker 1: football in two years. Um so yeah, so that's that's
- 28:40Speaker 1: the thing. It's like, I don't know if I had
- 28:43Speaker 1: let Chad talk me to taking them on Sunday just
- 28:45Speaker 1: because of that whole Watson factor, where Like I know
- 28:47Speaker 1: that I know the Browns are the right play here.
- 28:49Speaker 1: That's a great number in the divisional game. They are
- 28:51Speaker 1: not that much worse than this This Cincinnati team is.
- 28:55Speaker 1: This line's inflated just because Cincinnati right now is a
- 28:57Speaker 1: darling NFL. I mean, Joe Burrow, he's what top three
- 29:00Speaker 1: now and MVP votes, He's just the hype is hitting
- 29:03Speaker 1: that point. So just looking at this matchup, it's like, yeah,
- 29:06Speaker 1: you have to tick the Browns. But my issue is Watson.
- 29:09Speaker 1: I just I do not know what I get from me.
- 29:11Speaker 1: He's sure as hell is not getting too defensive touchdowns
- 29:14Speaker 1: and the kick return this week against the Cincinnati's defense,
- 29:16Speaker 1: I mean they're good, So, um yeah, don't I don't
- 29:20Speaker 1: really know what to do with the Chab but I
- 29:21Speaker 1: already bet the six. I'm gonna have to bet the
- 29:24Speaker 1: six and a half now that's had six and a half.
- 29:25Speaker 1: But it's hard to convince myself to put this as
- 29:28Speaker 1: one of our five. But I would just because it's
- 29:30Speaker 1: a shorter week and it's like we don't have that
- 29:31Speaker 1: many options, right, that's what makes it tricky. I don't
- 29:34Speaker 1: know that we'll find, you know. And now it comes
- 29:38Speaker 1: down to the Arizona Cardinals. That's what I mean. That's
- 29:40Speaker 1: like tough, like I hate them both for so many reasons.
- 29:44Speaker 1: We might only find the four games, and if so,
- 29:47Speaker 1: we're taking a by That's that's how we live. We
- 29:50Speaker 1: gotta make smart decisions, keep money in our pockets. That's
- 29:55Speaker 1: that's what a wise guy does. Football fans make every
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- 31:48Speaker 1: in Wyoming, or visit www one eight hundred gambler dot
- 31:53Speaker 1: net in West Virginia. Alright, well, you won Scoot trou
- 31:57Speaker 1: Let last week and I did not, So why don't
- 32:01Speaker 1: you make your choice? When all hope is lost, all
- 32:05Speaker 1: that's left is relief, Let's play scoot Rolette. Who all right?
- 32:15Speaker 1: I got two? I love because it's three and a half.
- 32:18Speaker 1: I gotta do. Give me the Chargers three and a half.
- 32:20Speaker 1: Oh my god, Wow, I just say that. I'm going
- 32:23Speaker 1: gets to Miami two weeks in a row for Skeoch.
- 32:27Speaker 1: I'm going to I can't believe I'm saying this. Do it?
- 32:32Speaker 1: This is how much I love this game. Do you
- 32:34Speaker 1: know what I'm gonna do? I don't Broncos plus nine
- 32:37Speaker 1: and a half. There you go, you gotta do it.
- 32:40Speaker 1: That was that was that was the was in between.
- 32:42Speaker 1: You know why they're both the most inflated lines is
- 32:45Speaker 1: the most inflated lines. And you know what, even if
- 32:48Speaker 1: I don't have six figures literally on, I want to
- 32:52Speaker 1: lose sleep with you on this game. So you, you
- 32:56Speaker 1: and I will both be losing sleep on Saturday night
- 32:59Speaker 1: thinking of out the risk and the opportunity to lose
- 33:04Speaker 1: more than just money. Uh spake And on the Broncos,
- 33:11Speaker 1: who's our money line? Round, Robin? Let me see, let
- 33:13Speaker 1: me see, hold on, dog, your dog, your dog blocks dog?
- 33:22Speaker 1: Zero chance your third Denver in my homes. You won't
- 33:24Speaker 1: cover that game. But he's not losing it. He just
- 33:26Speaker 1: doesn't lose back to back game, especially when he's on
- 33:28Speaker 1: the road for the second one. I mean, we got
- 33:30Speaker 1: to do the Chargers, no brainer, Browns. He's never beat
- 33:35Speaker 1: the Browns. Sons, Chargers, Browns, gotta go Giants, Giants, Vikings.
- 33:44Speaker 1: Yeah did you. I didn't want to put that juju
- 33:46Speaker 1: out there just because we're all in on the lines,
- 33:48Speaker 1: But you know what, why not emotionally hedge a little bit? No,
- 33:52Speaker 1: he can't do man, Mitchell'll get mad at us. Let's
- 33:55Speaker 1: go Ravens. Oh yeah, we forgot about the Ravens. Yeah. Well, honestly,
- 33:59Speaker 1: that was one of those we're on the wrong side.
- 34:00Speaker 1: Apparently the pros love Pittsburgh, we love the Ravens. So
- 34:04Speaker 1: it was just like, fuck it. I don't want to
- 34:06Speaker 1: mess with that game. But I'll take the money line.
- 34:08Speaker 1: I love that last one. Let's make it the money nier. Yeah,
- 34:13Speaker 1: the Cardinal. How about how cold you feel about your Panthers. No,
- 34:18Speaker 1: I'm just looking at a good number for the Panthers.
- 34:20Speaker 1: But yeah, you want to go Arizona. I like the
- 34:22Speaker 1: number for the Panthers, but I would not bet on
- 34:25Speaker 1: Sam Donald to win out on the road. Yeah, alright,
- 34:28Speaker 1: let's go. Let's go Arizona. Then alright, our money line
- 34:31Speaker 1: round Robin. I'll go slow, but Matt so, Matt Mitchell
- 34:34Speaker 1: can put it in the chat. For those listening live,
- 34:37Speaker 1: the Chargers, the Browns, the Giants, the Ravens, the Cardinals
- 34:45Speaker 1: Final run through foxhol Broncos plus nine and a half.
- 34:49Speaker 1: Simon says, Giants plus seven exact decision lines minus two
- 34:53Speaker 1: and a half Big Balls, Chargers plus three and a half.
- 34:58Speaker 1: Scooch Roulette Ars plus three and a half for Simon
- 35:02Speaker 1: Chad Broncos plus nine and a half. Simon, We've done
- 35:08Speaker 1: it all, brother, We have done it all for producer
- 35:14Speaker 1: Extraordinary Matt Mitchell. For Professional Better BFF, Simon Hunter. I
- 35:19Speaker 1: am Chad Millan. This has been the Favorites podcast from
- 35:22Speaker 1: the Volume Podcast Network. Download us from Apple Podcasts, from Spotify,
- 35:26Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. Please rate, review, subscribe, leave
- 35:30Speaker 1: us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a
- 35:34Speaker 1: gift reminder. Listen all the way through. That's really important
- 35:38Speaker 1: for the Apple rankings. Until next time, I Love you,