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The WRs Most Likely to Breakout in 2026 · BDGE Fantasy Football

0:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Good morning friends and enemies in today's video after I have run the numbers.
0:06
[SPEAKER_01]: These are the most likely breakout wide receivers for fancy football 2026.
0:11
[SPEAKER_01]: We just did the running back version a couple days ago, so make sure you check out that video either before or after this.
0:16
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, and the way that this works is we're going to look at every wide receiver in 80p from wide receiver 13 through 30, all right.
0:24
[SPEAKER_01]: So if they're already ranked within the top 12, we will not be looking at them because they're considered to be breakouts already.
0:29
[SPEAKER_01]: We will also exclude disqualify any receiver.
0:33
[SPEAKER_01]: Within that range of WiderSever 13 to WiderSever 30 in ADP that has already finished in their career as a WiderSever 1 at one point or another, they are excluded, they are disqualified.
0:43
[SPEAKER_01]: So again, we did the running back version of this, we're doing the WiderSever version of this today, after each synopsis of every player, we will be giving them a score.
0:51
[SPEAKER_01]: They're likelihood relative to the other players on this list of them finishing as a top 12 WiderSever 1.
0:58
[SPEAKER_01]: This year in fantasy football.
0:59
[SPEAKER_01]: So again, if it's a nine out of 10 score that does not mean I think they have a 90% chance of finishing as a wide receiver one, I just think their score is very high relative to the other players on this list that we'll be talking about in the video today.
1:11
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you're curious.
1:20
[SPEAKER_01]: So the first receiver we're actually going to talk about is Teterola McMillan, who's the Widersyver 15 right now in ADP.
1:26
[SPEAKER_01]: Widersyver 13 is the Malik neighbors.
1:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Widersyver 14 is Devonta Smith.
1:30
[SPEAKER_01]: Both of them have already finished as Widersyver 1's at one point or another in their career.
1:35
[SPEAKER_01]: So Teterola McMillan, rookie year last year, fire.
1:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Guys, an unbelievable alpha as a Widersyver.
1:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Wins off in the rookie of the year.
1:43
[SPEAKER_01]: I think genuinely at the wider receiver position, he is a bonafide superstar.
1:47
[SPEAKER_01]: He's like one of the clear alpha receivers that we've seen come into the league in recent years.
1:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Finishes with 70 catches over a thousand yards as a rookies incredibly impressive.
1:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously seven touchdowns.
1:58
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know what else you could have asked for from a dude like this, who steps into a low volume passing offense, who steps into the role as the alpha immediately, right?
2:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Just asked to be that guy from the minute that he was drafted and covered everything that he was supposed to.
2:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Realistically, the only flaw I saw in his game last year while watching him felt like drops, like he had a lot of concentration drops, but not something I'm worried about, you know, being sticky or problematic for him in fantasy football.
2:22
[SPEAKER_01]: The course of his career, he had a 25.4% target share last year, which is obviously insane as a rookie, a 40.9% areaard share, six highest in the entire NFL, fourth highest deep target share rate.
2:35
[SPEAKER_01]: He had 51.2% of the deep targets in the Carolina Panthers offense last year, a 33.3%
2:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Target share my concern with Ted's fantasy outlook that I'm sure I share with every single person in the fantasy community is that it just feels like How are we going to get the volume there for Tettoro McMillan to have that alpha alpha season, right?
2:57
[SPEAKER_01]: It's the Carolina Panthers and we have Bryce
3:00
[SPEAKER_01]: young.
3:00
[SPEAKER_01]: They were 29th in pass rate over expectation last year.
3:06
[SPEAKER_01]: Bryce Young, yards per attempt, 6.3 adjusted yards per attempt, 5.9, air yards per attempt, 6.5, 30th or worse in all three categories.
3:18
[SPEAKER_01]: I just, you know, Bryce has, he's improved year over year.
3:22
[SPEAKER_01]: We're just not going to see him being a high volume guy.
3:24
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think, at least not in this upcoming year.
3:27
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's going to hurt the alpha, right?
3:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Like as much as we can love Terra McClellan and DJ Moore and all these guys who were like drafted to be the widest ever one.
3:35
[SPEAKER_01]: And they'll probably take a 25, 28% target share in their respective offences.
3:39
[SPEAKER_01]: We just have to wait until the situation changes for those guys in order to see upside.
3:44
[SPEAKER_01]: Tet's Vegas line going into this year, 925.5 and 6.5 touchdowns, and I feel like that's pretty accurate.
3:52
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just Bryce Youngman.
3:53
[SPEAKER_01]: He had four games all of last year where he topped 200 passing yards.
3:58
[SPEAKER_01]: Four games, the entire year of 200 passing yards, that is an insane stat for quarterback.
4:02
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, a lot of what we saw from Tet last year was this, like, he ranked very highly in a lot of volume stats, so with with Jalen Coker getting this extension and hopefully healthy, them drafting wide receivers consistently over the last couple of years, including this year with Chris Brazzle coming in.
4:19
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm nervous.
4:20
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm nervous.
4:21
[SPEAKER_01]: This is a very, very small sample size from a man Adam Fife over here following the Carolina Panthers week 14 by Tet's target chair versus Jalen Coker's target chair.
4:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Very, very even.
4:30
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think you can make the argument that like having another real weapon will actually help Teterola McMillan, but statistically again, if you have another weapon commanding real targets, if you have Bryce Young in a very low passing volume offense, I think they just want to hide Bryce Young at this point, like it just doesn't feel great to have Teterola McMillan as my wintersheaver won.
4:47
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think this is one of those situations.
4:49
[SPEAKER_01]: It's okay to acknowledge a player is incredible without obsessing about them being a high-end fantasy asset.
4:55
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'll need to see some sort of material change in Carolina.
4:58
[SPEAKER_01]: I think for me to buy him at a wide receiver one price.
5:00
[SPEAKER_01]: He's the wide receiver 15.
5:01
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's not like you're necessarily having to buy him at a wide receiver one price.
5:03
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think your fantasy team will be in relatively good shape if he is your widersiever too.
5:08
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you need to pay a more premium price for him, I think that's going to be a problem.
5:12
[SPEAKER_01]: So overall, like TET, the makeup of the player, he's an alpha, obviously.
5:16
[SPEAKER_01]: If Bryce Young takes another step up, if they go a little bit more passive, if TET improves as a playmaker, whatever the case may be, I still give him, you know, again, because the score is relative to other people on the list.
5:25
[SPEAKER_01]: He still is 7.5 at a time for me here, but I have reservations.
5:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Why does he for 16 is Garra Wilson.
5:31
[SPEAKER_01]: He's already finished as a wide receiver one.
5:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Wide receiver 17 is T Higgins.
5:35
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think it's obvious that T can finish as a wide receiver one.
5:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Like when Burrow had his monster year in 2024, T Higgins averaged 18.7 PPR points per game, which is easy wide receiver one numbers.
5:46
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm in the camp that believes that Joe Burrow will fully compete for the MVP award this year.
5:51
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think we'll see him be
5:52
[SPEAKER_01]: at the top of his game as as good as he's ever looked in the NFL.
5:55
[SPEAKER_01]: He's obviously not gonna command volume like Jamar Chase's, but Burl loves him near the end zone and it felt like Flacco like Jamar Chase more than Joe Burl did last year when he came back in Burl was targeting T-higgins all over the place.
6:07
[SPEAKER_01]: So they don't have a legit other target in this offense besides Jamar Chase and T-higgins, so the target share combine between those two is gonna be insane.
6:15
[SPEAKER_01]: And Teagan's always misses a handful of games, otherwise he wouldn't have qualified for this list.
6:19
[SPEAKER_01]: Like he probably would have already had multiple low-end wide-resheaver-one finishes.
6:23
[SPEAKER_01]: So this is an offense that you want the very condensed pieces of Joe Barrow, Jamar Chase, Teagan's Chase Brown.
6:28
[SPEAKER_01]: So Teagan's for me is as good of a number, as good of a score, good of a rating, as Pedro McMillan.
6:33
[SPEAKER_01]: Here, so I'm also going to throw him into the 7.5 out of 10 score.
6:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Why do you see for 18?
6:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Marvin Harrison Jr.
6:41
[SPEAKER_01]: I have jumped into his, you know, outlook for the year in depth in multiple videos already this summer and we will link those down below if you want a little bit more depth here.
6:49
[SPEAKER_01]: I think ultimately like we know that Kyler and Drew Petson were just not the answer for Marvin Harrison Jr. at top five capital wide receiver.
6:56
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the downside cases are very real here.
6:59
[SPEAKER_01]: I think they're still systemic risk.
7:01
[SPEAKER_01]: I have treatment brides, a target, monster, Michael Wilson's obviously a lot better than people thought he would be.
7:05
[SPEAKER_01]: They draft the running back top five overall in Jeremiah love.
7:08
[SPEAKER_01]: So you'd imagine that one of him getting a ton of targets and or them trying to go much more run heavy is likely going to factor into the hours on the Cardinals.
7:17
[SPEAKER_01]: team this year.
7:18
[SPEAKER_01]: I will say they're projected to lose basically every game this year, so they're going to be playing from behind and probably throw the ball alive and still have a lot of passing attempts, so I'm not overly concerned about it.
7:26
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the upside case here is Michael Flore coming in.
7:29
[SPEAKER_01]: If you can call a really good offense, if he is anything like his brother, just in terms of being a progressive minded high quality offensive coach, this is going to be an offensive takes a huge step up.
7:38
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, if they throw the ball a ton like they did last year,
7:41
[SPEAKER_01]: then a lot of that I think ideally will go to Marvin Harrison Jr.
7:44
[SPEAKER_01]: I think in a world where the Cardinals have things break correctly for them.
7:49
[SPEAKER_01]: Traimic Brides obviously a target vacuum there, but I think M.A.J.
7:53
[SPEAKER_01]: is on par with him, seeing the 130 to 140 targets per year.
7:57
[SPEAKER_01]: And if he's anywhere near as good as we think he is as he was coming out and you can still see by the percentile ranks in reception perception by Matt Harmon, he's still an 80th percentile separator.
8:07
[SPEAKER_01]: There's schedule in the playoffs for fantasy playoffs is great jet Saints Raiders here.
8:11
[SPEAKER_01]: You can see this final tweet by Mike Florio here, Marvin Harrison Jr. has a 63% catchable target rate since joining the NFL that is the second lowest in that entire span.
8:20
[SPEAKER_01]: So if the target quality is a little bit higher.
8:24
[SPEAKER_01]: and we have him staying healthy and he is operating as the one which I expect him to be.
8:28
[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's probably a little bit more upside left on the bone here for us to chew on, but there's real target competition, there's real concerns about this offense.
8:36
[SPEAKER_01]: And one thing I didn't even mention was the concern about quarterback, right?
8:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Jacobi Berset came in and threw up huge statistics last year.
8:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Now you have a full year of film on him, and I don't know how well that's going to work, and even if it doesn't, you'd have to imagine some other QB is going to get on the field.
8:50
[SPEAKER_01]: If it's Carson Beck, I'd like that even less from Marvin Harrison Jr., so I think I made sure you could take a step up.
8:55
[SPEAKER_01]: I still think, again, we need a quarterback change in order for him to be that wide receiver one that we want in fantasy.
9:00
[SPEAKER_01]: So on this list, Marvin Harrison Jr. is going to get a four out of ten score.
9:04
[SPEAKER_01]: White receiver 19 is a flowers he's already finished as a white receiver one he did last year in full PPR and by the way, yes, those are full PPR scoring rankings in terms of deciding whether or not they've been white receiver ones and will be in the upcoming year my personal rankings are up on our website right now.
9:22
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9:23
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9:30
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9:45
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9:48
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10:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Widerceaver, 20, Lad, McCunkey.
10:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Upside cases, extremely real here.
10:09
[SPEAKER_01]: You have Justin Herbert who is another player that I think is going to compete heavily for the MVP award.
10:14
[SPEAKER_01]: You have an offensive line that is incredibly improved both by health and draft capital and signing Tyler Beatash, like free agents, draft capital, health coming back.
10:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, they're offensive lines should actually be, it goes from one of the worse in League last year with all the injuries to an actual,
10:28
[SPEAKER_01]: asset this year.
10:29
[SPEAKER_01]: In my opinion, Mike Medanio coming over as you off.
10:32
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a coordinator.
10:33
[SPEAKER_01]: We've seen what he's done to both just improve the efficiency of quarterback play the run game.
10:38
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, Tyree kill Jalen Wattle, the wide receivers over there who are highly targeted and are the number one and two in the pecking order.
10:44
[SPEAKER_01]: E. And that's what LAD McConkey is going to be here.
10:47
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's one of those where it's like, is lad as good as the top to your receivers in the NFL?
10:53
[SPEAKER_01]: No, definitely not, but if you tie him to a situation that's as good as any in the NFL, then yeah, he can just kind of rise with that tide here.
11:02
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
11:02
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm very much in on Lab McConkey when I look at Mike McDaniel what he did in Miami and to his big year, 2023 through the ball, 560 times.
11:11
[SPEAKER_01]: The very next year, he only played 11 games, but he threw it 400 times in 11 games, a 618 attempt pace.
11:18
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you guys remember, early in his career, Herbert, like he was throwing up in sane numbers, 595 attempts, 672 attempts, 699 attempts, and then obviously Greg Roman comes in and absolutely just the flates the number of passing attempts.
11:31
[SPEAKER_01]: Now they have a guy who understands the best aspect of your offense is Justin Herbert's fucking cannon attached to his elbow.
11:38
[SPEAKER_01]: You also have the number one target earner in the offense last year, Keenan Allen, gone.
11:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Rookie-lad McConkey finished as the wider receiver 13 in PPR, so we just missed this list.
11:47
[SPEAKER_01]: You only had 112 targets out here, right?
11:49
[SPEAKER_01]: So like, I don't know, the math here feels pretty simple for me, so I'm giving lab McConkey also a 7.5 out of 10.
11:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Moving to Widersyver 21, we have Ameka Ibuka over in Tampa Bay.
12:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Incredible start to his rookie season last year.
12:02
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously really fell flat towards the end.
12:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Still finishes with a really strong rookie line.
12:07
[SPEAKER_01]: 63 catches 938 yards, 6 touchdowns, 14.9 yards per reception.
12:13
[SPEAKER_01]: It's obviously really important to add a lot of context to this Tampa Bay book and years offense and Ibuka.
12:18
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the injuries kind of play the role of what happened and the path that went up and down last year.
12:24
[SPEAKER_01]: He suffered a hamstring train in mid-October and somehow never missed like players who suffer hamstring trains.
12:30
[SPEAKER_01]: They're almost two game minimum, usually three to four.
12:33
[SPEAKER_01]: He ends up playing right away.
12:34
[SPEAKER_01]: If you watched him play with the hamstring train, he was obviously limited.
12:37
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it had a lot more to do with the fact that
12:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Evans was already hurt and Chris Godwin was coming back and heard as well from a serious lower body injury.
12:45
[SPEAKER_01]: So like I think he needed to step up and I think he was probably trying to prove his toughness as a rookie and after Bakers AC spraying in his shoulder, this is a crispy stat from hate and over at underdog following Bakers AC spraying.
12:57
[SPEAKER_01]: The book is catchable target rate was near 50% for the rest of season.
13:02
[SPEAKER_01]: That is the lowest rate that was the lowest rate from that time span on in the NFL.
13:09
[SPEAKER_01]: And I want to say like listen, I think he was bad at times last year too, he's dropping way too many passes, but he did have the second most unrealized air yards in the entire NFL last year with a 40.9% deep target share rate.
13:21
[SPEAKER_01]: And now you have, you know, the biggest weapon that Tampa base had over the last decade, Mike Evans obviously gone.
13:26
[SPEAKER_01]: He's in San Francisco.
13:28
[SPEAKER_01]: So the obvious path here is this guy who was really good, Abuka having a good rookie year now stepping
13:35
[SPEAKER_01]: So that path just feels extremely clear to me.
13:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Tampa brings in another new offensive coordinator, which is their fourth and four years, but it's Zach Robinson coming over from Atlanta.
13:45
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think this was the type of step up we saw with Drake London when we moved from Arthur Smith to Zach Robinson.
13:51
[SPEAKER_01]: They started using Drake London way more in the slot, moving them around the formation.
13:56
[SPEAKER_01]: And like just getting them open easily, that first year it's Zach Robinson, first year he obviously goes over 100 catches, 160 targets in this offense.
14:03
[SPEAKER_01]: Zach Robinson came in immediately kind of like set Twitter on fire.
14:07
[SPEAKER_01]: He said he he coached Cooper Cup during a triple crown season.
14:10
[SPEAKER_01]: He said a mechabuka is very similar to Cooper Cup just in terms of the way that his brain works with the game of football and his natural instincts.
14:18
[SPEAKER_01]: So his fourth round price in drafts right now makes a ton of sense to me would not fall anyone for targeting him earlier and he's going to get an 8.5 out of 10 score on this list.
14:28
[SPEAKER_01]: The next two receivers we have are the Chicago Bayer's wide receivers.
14:33
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, Luther burden is the wide receiver 22.
14:36
[SPEAKER_01]: Roman Dunes is the wide receiver 28.
14:38
[SPEAKER_01]: So there is a pretty significant gap between the two of them.
14:41
[SPEAKER_01]: And the reason I'm putting them both together is because the wide receiver's 23 to 27 have all finished as wide receiver ones before.
14:47
[SPEAKER_01]: That is Terry McCleuron.
14:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Demata Adams, Jalen Waddle, Jameson Williams, finished as the wide receiver 12, just as previous year and Mike Evans.
14:54
[SPEAKER_01]: So it is those two kind of back to back.
14:56
[SPEAKER_01]: Chicago Bears passing offense feels like one you need to figure out correctly in order to do fantasy football correctly in 2026 because we're expecting Caleb Williams to take another, you know, another step forward in Ben Johnson's offense.
15:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Second year,
15:12
[SPEAKER_01]: They've got a really good offensive line.
15:14
[SPEAKER_01]: They didn't really secure the defense at all, so they're probably going to have to throw the ball a decent amount coming into 2026.
15:20
[SPEAKER_01]: You have these young talented draft capital heavy weapons.
15:24
[SPEAKER_01]: Remember, Rome top 10 pick.
15:26
[SPEAKER_01]: Luther Bird and top 40 pick.
15:27
[SPEAKER_01]: Colson, love, and top 10 pick.
15:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Like you have this influx of guys entering their prime that were all highly touted prospects.
15:34
[SPEAKER_01]: It took Luther a while to kind of get going last year.
15:38
[SPEAKER_01]: He barely played before their week nine by and then he got that, you know, early she showed a ton of promise post week nine by.
15:44
[SPEAKER_01]: The easiest upside case for Luther burden is obviously DJ Moore has gone, right?
15:48
[SPEAKER_01]: DJ Moore no longer in Chicago is in Buffalo and I think what Luther burdened does really well is what DJ Moore did a lot of in this offense.
15:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Like operate around the line of scrimmage, get the ball in his hands, screen targets, allow him to make plays in space.
16:00
[SPEAKER_01]: DJ Moore ranked
16:01
[SPEAKER_01]: Top 15 in the NFL last year with 13 screen targets and all the meat is a kies also had six himself So that is 19 screen targets for wide receivers opening up in this offense and I don't really see another guy like you don't give Romadune's a screen targets Cole's in love and it's gonna be a highly targeted guy, but that's not wide receiver screen targets It's really I imagine with the burden kind of takes almost all of these
16:21
[SPEAKER_01]: He's pretty expensive in the middle of the fourth for a guy that we only saw really be productive for a small sample size and even in some of the games where he like blew up they were low volume the small sample sizes within small sample sizes it feels like and a lot of people kind of nitpick like the hey was elite on a yards per out run basis and then the people that aren't like Luther burden stands will say like oh you know if you now include the playoffs is yards per out run significantly drop so I try to step back with
16:47
[SPEAKER_01]: we have really small sample sizes and try to just look at the situation objectively rather than look at, oh, this guy was really good for four games.
16:54
[SPEAKER_01]: It doesn't feel like a good process.
16:56
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think ultimately, it'd be dumb to fade with the burden this year completely.
17:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Right now in Vegas, he actually has the highest receiving yardage prop among himself, Roma Dunzei, and Colson Lovelin.
17:07
[SPEAKER_01]: All those numbers, by the way, are included in our rankings in our draft guide.
17:11
[SPEAKER_01]: You'll see all the player props as well as a ton of different little like
17:13
[SPEAKER_01]: tiebreaker pieces of information that you can use to help decide between players when you are drafting or if you want to just browse into your research ahead of time those are up right now.
17:22
[SPEAKER_01]: So you have Ben Johnson, one of the best offensive minds in the NFL who handpicked Luther burden, who used him a lot down the stretch last year, who just got rid of their other top target at Widerceaver, Indy J. Moore, were expecting the offense to take a jump, Vegas likes Luther burden as much if not more than these other weapons here.
17:37
[SPEAKER_01]: So ultimately, I'm not like over the moon about Luther Burton's talents, but again, I think it'd be kind of dumb to fade him.
17:44
[SPEAKER_01]: In terms of him turning into a wide receiver one, I think we've seen guys like Debo Samuel, who are not like the normal alphas, who are not the typical like Jamar Chase 160 targets when all over the field type guys have alphas seasons.
17:58
[SPEAKER_01]: Like Debo's 2021 season was a true alphas season and in fantasy football.
18:02
[SPEAKER_01]: and there's a handful of head coaches or offensive coordinators that I think are creative enough and good enough to unlock that type of player in an offense, Kyle Shanahan did it with Debo, Ben Johnson is one of those types of minds that I think can do it with the burden.
18:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Ultimately, the score for burden is going to be a 5.5 out of 10.
18:17
[SPEAKER_01]: So not super high in him, not super low on him.
18:20
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you can play this however you want.
18:22
[SPEAKER_01]: I think if you love Bird and there are a lot of stats and a lot of upside cases for you to harp on.
18:27
[SPEAKER_01]: I think if you don't love Luther Bird and I think there's the target competition.
18:30
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a small sample size.
18:32
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a look what he did in the playoffs kind of thing.
18:34
[SPEAKER_01]: there's that he's not an incredible like separator versus man conversation.
18:37
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's kind of where I land with Luther burden.
18:40
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm I'm definitely not out on Roma Dunes, either.
18:43
[SPEAKER_01]: It's funny because I think when you look at Roma Dunes, and Ameka Buka, their storylines are quite similar last year.
18:50
[SPEAKER_01]: When I started just writing the numbers down on paper, you guys remember like if you draft the Roma Dunes a last year early on, he was incredible.
18:58
[SPEAKER_01]: From weeks one through four, I have the numbers up here, almost nine targets a game, five catches, 74 receiving yards, and five touchdowns within those first four games.
19:06
[SPEAKER_01]: Why'd receive her three overall in fantasy up to that point, suffers a foot injury in week five.
19:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Shout out to Drake, nothing was the same for the rest of the season.
19:15
[SPEAKER_01]: Similar to Ameka Obuka, loses the most target player on the offense this offseason in DJ Moore.
19:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Ameka Obuka, when you look at the numbers,
19:23
[SPEAKER_01]: very similar weeks one to five before the hamstring strains 7.6 targets five receptions per game 89 yards five touchdowns suffers a hamstring training week six nothing was the same going forward loses the the best player on their offense the most targeted player on their offense in Mike Evans.
19:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Very similar storylines Roman Dunes a has the you know the foot issue the chronic foot issue right now that
19:44
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, people are kind of losing their minds over like, you know, it's the new normal for him that he has to deal with this foot thing.
19:50
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not an injury per se.
19:51
[SPEAKER_01]: He just says he's got to operate differently in terms of how he runs on his foot, which is obviously not great to hear.
19:57
[SPEAKER_01]: I just don't know how how many like easy targets we're going to see for Roman Dunes.
20:00
[SPEAKER_01]: He's he's more of a downhill playmaker in this offense.
20:03
[SPEAKER_01]: He's more of a red zone threat.
20:05
[SPEAKER_01]: He's not like
20:06
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, he's not going to play the Ammon Rossing Brown role in the Ben Johnson offense.
20:09
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we saw like most of the time with Ben Johnson during his time in Detroit, his most valuable targets were going to Ammon Ra, who's more like Luther Burton and Sam Laporta, who is the Colson level and in this offense.
20:20
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think Rome's probably being a little bit disrespected just because of how good he is as a player.
20:25
[SPEAKER_01]: And if Caleb Williams does take that third year leap where he goes from, you know, 37, 3800 passing yards, up to like the perennial, 4500 passing yard type of guy,
20:36
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think if you're one of those people that, like, loves to harp on the small sample size with a boooka, loves to harp on the small sample size with the burden, you should probably weigh that into the spectrum for Roman Dunes as well because you could find that within his profile.
20:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Do I think he finishes as a widersiever one?
20:50
[SPEAKER_01]: Probably not.
20:51
[SPEAKER_01]: I put him at a 4.5 out of 10.
20:53
[SPEAKER_01]: So don't love him.
20:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Don't hate him either, but he's definitely not a full fade.
20:56
[SPEAKER_01]: Like I think he is for some people.
20:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Wide receiver 29, Christian Watts Stain over there in Green Bay, just on a four year 92.3 million dollar deal can get up to one ten with incentives.
21:08
[SPEAKER_01]: I have a tough time of Christian Watts and he is so inconsistent, everything that you like about him has come basically within two small sample sizes at the end of his rookie year and at the end of last year.
21:18
[SPEAKER_01]: And that is basically kept him afloat and what a time for one of those small sample sizes to hit at the end of last year to kind of earn him that contract.
21:25
[SPEAKER_01]: He's been in a league for four years at this point, and he has never topped 620 receiving yards in a full season.
21:33
[SPEAKER_01]: That's hard to believe, man.
21:34
[SPEAKER_01]: You do now have a more consolidated target share in Green Bay.
21:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Romeo Dobbs, who's been the top target guy for Jordan Love over the last handful years, is gone.
21:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Don Tavian Wix, is gone.
21:45
[SPEAKER_01]: Tucker Kraft is working his way back from a serious tear in his knee, whether or not he starts on the public, we'll have to see.
21:51
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the pairing of Jordan loves arm with Christian Watson just makes a ton of sense.
21:54
[SPEAKER_01]: They look great together last year.
21:56
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, love just wants to yuck it up there and Watson wants to fall underneath it.
22:00
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he's a great fit for La Flores offense.
22:03
[SPEAKER_01]: I think this is a pretty interesting tweet from Jacob Rick Road, who I also think is a really good follow-in Twitter if you're not following him for fantasy stuff.
22:10
[SPEAKER_01]: These are the wider receivers with the most statistically similar career start to Christian Watson.
22:15
[SPEAKER_01]: You have V Jackson and Tantana Moss on there.
22:17
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just, you know, players who
22:19
[SPEAKER_01]: through four, three, four years, like really didn't have anything going for them, and then might have broken out for a year or two, VJACs obviously became a perennial thousand yard receiver, and Santana Moss was more of like an underneath the slot guy I would say.
22:33
[SPEAKER_01]: Watson's a tough one to buy to be like VJACs because VJACs was so much more of a position receiver, like a, you know, a stronger body guy where Watson's play, I think really lives and dies with variants.
22:44
[SPEAKER_01]: his A dot last year was 17.8 yards downfield.
22:48
[SPEAKER_01]: That was third highest in the entire NFL.
22:51
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think when you have an A dot like this, which is just what Christian Watson is as a player, you simply have to live and die with the variance.
22:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Some years the deep balls will be more accurate than others and some years they won't be.
23:02
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's the thing with fantasy football.
23:03
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like we we try to project on these small sample sizes.
23:06
[SPEAKER_01]: They play 16, 17 games a season.
23:08
[SPEAKER_01]: So three inches.
23:10
[SPEAKER_01]: an inch on this play and an inch on this play is the difference between Christian Watson having 550 yards and four touchdowns and him having 800 yards and seven touchdowns.
23:21
[SPEAKER_01]: So again, the variance is just something you're going to have to live with on a week by week basis if you draft Christian Watson.
23:26
[SPEAKER_01]: So for me, if you're going to try to project a Christian Watson for, you know, 130, 140 targets, I think you're being unrealistic here.
23:35
[SPEAKER_01]: I think where I'd probably project
23:40
[SPEAKER_01]: 12 at the end of the year.
23:41
[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to need too much luck too much outlier type efficiency.
23:44
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, you know, in the 90 if 93rd, 97th percentile outcome in the volume and the type of targets he gets, of course, it can end up landing there.
23:52
[SPEAKER_01]: But overall when I look Chris Watson, I don't see him that differently than I see the outlook for like a Brian Thomas junior this year.
23:58
[SPEAKER_01]: There's similar players, there field stretchers.
24:00
[SPEAKER_01]: I think their volume projection is going to be somewhere in like the five to seven targets per game.
24:05
[SPEAKER_01]: They're both attached
24:07
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think Christian Watson, more so just has a recent see by us working in his favor.
24:11
[SPEAKER_01]: We're Brian Thomas Jr. is the other way around.
24:14
[SPEAKER_01]: So ultimately, I got Christian Watson at a four out of 10.
24:17
[SPEAKER_01]: And the last player being picked within the first 30 wider severs in drafts right now is the rookie Carnel Tate out in Tennessee.
24:27
[SPEAKER_01]: A top five pick in the NFL draft this year.
24:30
[SPEAKER_01]: Haven't talked much about Cornell Tate right now.
24:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Very interesting landing spot, ton of turn over in Tennessee.
24:36
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously attached to the number one overall pick in the draft and cam board last year.
24:40
[SPEAKER_01]: Before I jump into Cornell Tate, make sure you hit the button that looks like this.
24:44
[SPEAKER_01]: If you enjoyed the video, we're going to be dropping videos like this all summer long.
24:47
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24:56
[SPEAKER_01]: So if we look back to 2010, the last 15, 16, 17 years, whatever, here are the receivers that were drafted in the top five.
25:04
[SPEAKER_01]: We've got Marvin Harrison Jr. We've got Jamar Chase.
25:06
[SPEAKER_01]: We've got Cory Davis.
25:07
[SPEAKER_01]: We've got a Mark Cooper.
25:08
[SPEAKER_01]: We've got Sammy Watkins, Justin Blackman and AJ Green.
25:13
[SPEAKER_01]: For the most part,
25:14
[SPEAKER_01]: All of them have given you really solid floors.
25:17
[SPEAKER_01]: You're Mar Chase, obviously, had the ceiling, but for all intents and purposes, most of them were within the Widersheaver 20 to 30 range, which is about where Cardinal Tate is being drafted.
25:27
[SPEAKER_01]: Overall, I love the pick for Camward.
25:29
[SPEAKER_01]: You have this guy that you invested the number on overall pick in, and now we need to put as many playmakers and weapons around him.
25:34
[SPEAKER_01]: They sign, Wandell Robinson, they drafted Cardinal Tate.
25:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Now you're asking Calvin Ridley to be the number three in your offense, which I think at this point in his career is what's best suited for him.
25:43
[SPEAKER_01]: You bring in Brian Dable to be the offensive coordinator, which I really, really like.
25:46
[SPEAKER_01]: So a lot of moves on the offense here.
25:48
[SPEAKER_01]: I still have major concerns about the offensive line here, especially the interior, and that's kind of like the biggest scare for me, because I think when you look at camward, like there wasn't a lot of good film last year.
25:58
[SPEAKER_01]: There were a lot of...
25:59
[SPEAKER_01]: good individual plays on film where you're like, oh, I see the upside, the athleticism, the playmaking ability, but there was very little consistency.
26:07
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think a lot of that had to do with one, he's always trying to make the big play, but two, the offensive line just continuously collapsed around him.
26:15
[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't think they have a good enough offensive line progressing into like a top tier unit for me to feel that much better about camords, you know, pocket collapsing.
26:23
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think Carnal Tate's a great prospect, incredible hands, very strong route runner, separator versus man coverage, not going to give you a ton in terms of the yack department, but I think that's probably more for Wandell Robinson targets over the middle of the field, and this was an interesting nugget here of players who have averaged fewer than four receptions a game.
26:42
[SPEAKER_01]: in their college career that were drafted in the first round.
26:45
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously it's important to put a ton of context behind Cardinal T and why the volume wasn't there because he's playing with arguably the best group of receivers in college at Ohio State over the last decade of any school there.
26:55
[SPEAKER_01]: So when you're competing against Marvin
26:57
[SPEAKER_01]: in Junior and, you know, the Chris Alavez, the Garrett Wilson, so the world, the Jackson Smith and Jig was like, those types of guys, the guys that become Alpha's in the NFL, not everyone's gonna catch eight balls of game in college.
27:07
[SPEAKER_01]: But when you look at the guys who did end up succeeding, the first round picks averaging fewer than four receptions per game, Roddy White, Dwayne Boe, Demarius Thomas, Odo Beckham, DJ Moore, Jalen Wattel, I probably should have highlighted a few more guys on this list like Brian Thomas Jr., Jamie Symboliams for sure, Brandon Iyuk, but y'all get the point.
27:24
[SPEAKER_01]: The ones that didn't end up succeeding, I think we're like the speedsters, the field stretchers, the John Ross is the Rashad Pyramids, Phil Pdorset, Henry Rugs, Ted Ginn, Darius Hayward Bay.
27:33
[SPEAKER_01]: Cardinal Tate is way more Roddy White, way more DJ Moore, way more possession can be a number one, then he is those like pure field stretchers, so I'm not overly concerned about it.
27:44
[SPEAKER_01]: I think he'll immediately battle Wandell Robinson for the team lead in targets, and I don't think it's out of the realm of possibilities for him to be a top 15, top 12 receiver out the gate just given the draft capital, but it's really going to come down to whether or not can't more takes a massive second year leap.
28:00
[SPEAKER_01]: I think Cam Ward would have to go from, you know, QB 2829 last year up to quarterback 15 or 12.
28:06
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, not either range of outcomes, but I think a more projectable leap would probably be like somewhere in the early 20s, maybe like quarterback 18, 19, 20.
28:14
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that would make it hard for Cornelton to actually make his way into the top 12.
28:19
[SPEAKER_01]: As we saw earlier, Jamar Chase was the only guy that met the other criteria that finishes top five guy and he had Joe Burl there.
28:25
[SPEAKER_01]: So ultimately, I'm scoring Cornell Tate as a 4 out of 10, maybe 3.5 out of 10.
28:30
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll even have a 4 out of 10 for this exercise and that will wrap up this video for y'all.
28:36
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28:40
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28:59
[SPEAKER_01]: I will see y'all when I see y'all.
29:01
[SPEAKER_01]: Smoochies.