Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / Stu Responds to the WSJ’s Hit Piece

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Stu Responds to the WSJ’s Hit Piece · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:14
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu,
• 0:16
  a show that attempts to make the world a little bit more predictable.
• 0:19
  We're here in the new set
• 0:20
  and uh we are here
• 0:23
  and it's uh pretty cool.
• 0:25
  We're,
• 0:25
  we're pretty excited about being
• 0:27
  uh on the new set for the first time,
• 0:29
  still dealing with a bunch of the graphics coming in and all the stuff.
• 0:31
  We're still sort of in
• 0:33
  half launch mode here,
• 0:34
  soft launch mode if you will.
• 0:35
  So thank you so much for joining us as we go through this,
• 0:37
  and there's so much to talk about.
• 0:39
  If you happen to be here and you're a fan of uh Stu,
• 0:41
  or excuse me,
• 0:42
  Stu Does America,
• 0:43
  the old show that used to be on this channel,
• 0:44
  I encourage you to,
• 0:45
  of course,
• 0:46
  stay and enjoy uh what we're gonna be doing here.
• 0:48
  It has to do with prediction markets
• 0:50
  and how to understand the news and the world
• 0:53
  as it relates to prediction markets,
• 0:54
  but.
• 0:55
  Uh,
• 0:55
  if you're also looking for a little bit more on,
• 0:58
  uh,
• 0:58
  the funny news side as well,
• 1:00
  we have Stu and Dave Do America.
• 1:01
  It's a new show,
• 1:02
  kind of an expansion of Stu Does America,
• 1:04
  and it's available
• 1:05
  if you search YouTube or on Blaze TV,
• 1:07
  uh,
• 1:07
  Stu and Dave Do America.
• 1:09
  So make sure to go check that out.
• 1:11
  Um,
• 1:12
  let me talk to you a little bit
• 1:14
  about
• 1:16
  the world we're looking at right now because the prediction market world.
• 1:19
  Is one that you might be new to.
• 1:21
  You might not necessarily,
• 1:22
  uh,
• 1:22
  have a,
• 1:23
  a vibe on right now.
• 1:25
  There's a lot of kind of,
• 1:26
  honestly,
• 1:26
  BS
• 1:28
  being circulated about prediction markets,
• 1:30
  stuff that doesn't really make any sense.
• 1:32
  We'll go through some of that today.
• 1:34
  Um,
• 1:35
  some
• 1:36
  where you would think
• 1:37
  they would have a better understanding of it and maybe a,
• 1:41
  a closer connection to the truth.
• 1:43
  Um,
• 1:44
  and I,
• 1:44
  I,
• 1:45
  I,
• 1:45
  I find that at times,
• 1:46
  that's a real weak point in the media right now.
• 1:49
  And I think we should make sure we understand that.
• 1:51
  We're also gonna give you some different markets,
• 1:53
  uh,
• 1:53
  to look forward to.
• 1:54
  There's some interesting stuff in sports and culture,
• 1:56
  we'll get into a little bit later,
• 1:57
  but I do wanna start
• 1:59
  with,
• 1:59
  uh,
• 2:00
  this Wall Street Journal headline.
• 2:02
  Why almost everyone loses
• 2:04
  except a few sharks
• 2:07
  on prediction markets.
• 2:08
  Hmm,
• 2:08
  there you go.
• 2:09
  That's the big headline.
• 2:10
  That's kind of the spin,
• 2:10
  honestly,
• 2:11
  we've been seeing constantly on prediction markets these days.
• 2:14
  It is,
• 2:14
  uh,
• 2:15
  sort of a way to scare you away from them.
• 2:18
  I would say that's kind of the,
• 2:19
  the,
• 2:20
  the thing that they're trying to do right now.
• 2:22
  They
• 2:23
  they want you to know what they are
• 2:25
  just enough
• 2:25
  so that you're terrified of them.
• 2:27
  I will say,
• 2:28
  what is it again?
• 2:28
  What's the word they use,
• 2:29
  sharks.
• 2:30
  Almost a few sharks.
• 2:31
  Look,
• 2:32
  this is the,
• 2:32
  I,
• 2:33
  I'll try not to admit this all that often,
• 2:35
  OK?
• 2:36
  Because it does not help me
• 2:37
  really on this program whatsoever
• 2:39
  to tell you this,
• 2:40
  but like,
• 2:41
  here's something that you may be very,
• 2:43
  very aware of already,
• 2:45
  but here's the thing,
• 2:47
  I'm not a shark.
• 2:48
  OK,
• 2:49
  I'm not a shark,
• 2:50
  I'm not special,
• 2:52
  I don't have some magical knowledge
• 2:54
  of prediction markets.
• 2:55
  I can't trade 50,000 times in 3 seconds.
• 2:58
  I have no AI doing it for me.
• 3:01
  That's not what we're doing here.
• 3:03
  They want to terrify you to think that it's,
• 3:05
  oh gosh,
• 3:05
  it's only a few sharks.
• 3:06
  Well,
• 3:06
  I've done very well on prediction markets for a decade.
• 3:09
  I'm far
• 3:11
  from a shark.
• 3:12
  I'm far
• 3:13
  from some mastermind that can,
• 3:16
  uh,
• 3:16
  can somehow
• 3:17
  dig into the markets and unleash some secret code.
• 3:20
  What I'm trying to do is take information that I care about,
• 3:23
  that I,
• 3:23
  that I'm interested in.
• 3:25
  And synthesize it into something
• 3:27
  where we can maybe make a little bit of a profit
• 3:29
  inside of prediction markets.
• 3:31
  Maybe we can do that together.
• 3:32
  Maybe you guys can tell me the markets that you like.
• 3:34
  I'll tell you some that I like,
• 3:36
  and we'll look at this and make some decisions
• 3:38
  on our own merit.
• 3:39
  Like,
• 3:40
  sometimes we'll win,
• 3:40
  sometimes we'll lose,
• 3:41
  but we'll do,
• 3:42
  I think,
• 3:42
  pretty well.
• 3:43
  I have been doing very well for a,
• 3:45
  a,
• 3:45
  a long time on these things.
• 3:46
  That's not to say that I won't screw up,
• 3:48
  that,
• 3:48
  that I won't get something wrong,
• 3:49
  but they want
• 3:51
  you to believe that apparently,
• 3:52
  people like me are sharks.
• 3:54
  Look,
• 3:55
  I'm not a shark.
• 3:56
  I'm not a,
• 3:58
  uh,
• 3:58
  you know,
• 3:59
  some
• 4:00
  complete,
• 4:00
  you know,
• 4:01
  uh,
• 4:01
  flash trading nerd.
• 4:03
  I'm a nerd.
• 4:05
  Uh,
• 4:05
  but I do as little flashing as possible,
• 4:07
  and that's to your benefit,
• 4:09
  OK,
• 4:09
  because there's a visual element to the show.
• 4:11
  So that's important.
• 4:12
  By the way,
• 4:12
  you can listen to this on podcast or on YouTube,
• 4:14
  uh,
• 4:14
  if you are on one or the other,
• 4:16
  just search for
• 4:17
  Predictable with Stu on either platform,
• 4:19
  whether it's podcast,
• 4:20
  uh,
• 4:20
  you know,
• 4:21
  uh,
• 4:21
  uh,
• 4:22
  YouTube,
• 4:22
  all the,
• 4:23
  all the places,
• 4:24
  you can go and find this.
• 4:24
  Let me give you a little bit of this because
• 4:26
  this is what they're doing in the media right now.
• 4:29
  And I don't think it's right.
• 4:30
  And this is one of the reasons I went to Washington DC
• 4:32
  a couple of weeks ago to try to help people understand,
• 4:36
  uh,
• 4:36
  these topics a little bit better.
• 4:39
  This is,
• 4:39
  this is the story they give you
• 4:41
  to warn you about how some people aren't making money in prediction markets.
• 4:44
  Are you ready for it?
• 4:46
  Because
• 4:47
  if this is you,
• 4:48
  we're gonna have some,
• 4:49
  we need to have a conversation,
• 4:50
  OK?
• 4:52
  John Peterson,
• 4:53
  33 years old,
• 4:54
  couldn't work.
• 4:55
  The former Outback Steakhouse line cook was recovering from
• 4:59
  a car crash and running out of money.
• 5:01
  This is not a good start.
• 5:03
  Calci,
• 5:03
  the prediction market,
• 5:04
  promised a quick way to fix that.
• 5:07
  He took out a variable interest loan and started betting.
• 5:11
  Now stop for one second.
• 5:14
  Right off the bat,
• 5:15
  Calci,
• 5:16
  Polymarket,
• 5:18
  predict it,
• 5:19
  any
• 5:19
  prediction market you're considering joining,
• 5:22
  none of them
• 5:23
  promise you a quick,
• 5:25
  quick way
• 5:26
  to,
• 5:26
  uh,
• 5:27
  to fix your financial future.
• 5:29
  Is it a possibility?
• 5:32
  Yes,
• 5:32
  it's a possibility if you do it well and you do it smart.
• 5:36
  Um,
• 5:36
  the first thing you should do when you think
• 5:38
  about going into a prediction market like this,
• 5:40
  is to
• 5:42
  excise the word betting from your life.
• 5:45
  Because if you're doing in a way that you consider to be betting,
• 5:48
  you'll likely lose,
• 5:50
  because,
• 5:50
  as you know,
• 5:51
  gambling isn't normally all that profitable.
• 5:53
  There are some people who do very well with it.
• 5:55
  It's possible to do very well with it,
• 5:57
  but honestly,
• 5:58
  if that's the way you're thinking about this,
• 5:59
  you're gonna probably put yourself in trouble.
• 6:01
  Let me layer something on top of that.
• 6:04
  This man
• 6:06
  took out a variable interest loan.
• 6:09
  To then go on Calshi and bet.
• 6:13
  He didn't even get a fixed-rate loan,
• 6:15
  boys and girls.
• 6:16
  He did.
• 6:17
  I mean.
• 6:19
  I would argue,
• 6:21
  perhaps use money you have.
• 6:23
  OK?
• 6:23
  That would be maybe place number one I would start,
• 6:26
  is try to use money that's actually your money.
• 6:30
  If you're taking out giant loans
• 6:33
  to use,
• 6:34
  uh,
• 6:34
  to,
• 6:34
  uh,
• 6:35
  to even invest,
• 6:36
  but bet as the he,
• 6:37
  the term he used on,
• 6:38
  on polymarket
• 6:39
  or Calci,
• 6:41
  I would advise you
• 6:42
  at least get a fixed rate loan
• 6:44
  so that you're.
• 6:46
  Halfway through and they're like,
• 6:47
  oh,
• 6:47
  sorry,
• 6:47
  we're gonna jack up,
• 6:48
  uh,
• 6:49
  your loan rates.
• 6:49
  So,
• 6:49
  variable rate loan,
• 6:51
  that's,
• 6:51
  that's problem number 2 because betting would be problem number 1.
• 6:55
  Think about this differently.
• 6:56
  OK,
• 6:56
  so this is what he did.
• 6:57
  OK.
• 6:57
  Now,
• 6:58
  again,
• 6:58
  you might say this is obviously a disaster story.
• 7:00
  This is gonna be a catastrophe from minute one.
• 7:02
  It wasn't.
• 7:03
  He actually did really well.
• 7:05
  Listen to this.
• 7:06
  At first,
• 7:06
  it worked.
• 7:07
  Peterson turned about $2000 into close to $8000
• 7:11
  by betting on daily snowfall totals in Detroit where he lives.
• 7:15
  Now,
• 7:16
  Look,
• 7:17
  I,
• 7:17
  I,
• 7:17
  I.
• 7:19
  There are real experts out there on the weather,
• 7:21
  OK?
• 7:22
  There are people who are on Calci,
• 7:24
  who are on polymarket,
• 7:25
  who are unpredicted,
• 7:25
  who are on all these markets,
• 7:27
  and they are making money
• 7:28
  predicting
• 7:30
  what will happen with snowfall in various cities.
• 7:32
  There are,
• 7:32
  as you know,
• 7:33
  there's meteorologists out there who are studying this stuff.
• 7:35
  There's really smart people.
• 7:37
  If you are a line cook from Outback Steakhouse,
• 7:39
  you're probably not the guy
• 7:41
  that is gonna go into daily
• 7:44
  snowfall markets in Detroit
• 7:46
  and win long term.
• 7:47
  That's probably not you.
• 7:49
  You might make a mean,
• 7:50
  uh,
• 7:51
  blooming onion.
• 7:52
  But my guess is,
• 7:54
  probably not the guy who's gonna 0 to 1 of an inch
• 7:57
  snowfall total in advance.
• 7:59
  That's just me.
• 8:00
  You can get lucky as he seemingly did.
• 8:02
  He went from $2000 to 8000.
• 8:04
  He parlayed that into $41,000
• 8:07
  by trading on sports,
• 8:09
  using a strategy he developed with the help of AI according
• 8:12
  to a Wall Street Journal review of his account records.
• 8:14
  Now,
• 8:17
  Betting on sports is something that,
• 8:19
  you know,
• 8:19
  people do.
• 8:20
  You can,
• 8:21
  there's a lot of different approaches on that.
• 8:22
  We will give you some approaches that will seem,
• 8:24
  uh,
• 8:25
  considerably separate from the betting that you may have used or heard of before.
• 8:30
  There's nothing wrong with sports gambling in my mind.
• 8:32
  I'm not a,
• 8:33
  I'm not a Puritan on that.
• 8:35
  I know some people really don't like it.
• 8:36
  That's fine.
• 8:37
  Uh,
• 8:38
  I don't have any problem,
• 8:39
  uh,
• 8:39
  with sports gambling,
• 8:40
  and
• 8:41
  I will say this though,
• 8:42
  and it's,
• 8:42
  it's important to understand on prediction markets.
• 8:44
  Prediction markets are gonna give you,
• 8:46
  I think,
• 8:46
  a better experience,
• 8:48
  wagering
• 8:49
  on sports if that's what you want to do.
• 8:52
  I mean,
• 8:52
  I think it's better than having a house edge.
• 8:54
  Uh,
• 8:55
  you're trading with other people,
• 8:56
  you just have to outsmart other people.
• 8:58
  That being said,
• 8:59
  these are really sharp markets.
• 9:00
  There are millions and millions and millions
• 9:02
  and millions of dollars going into sports,
• 9:04
  like typical sports,
• 9:05
  uh,
• 9:06
  gaming type,
• 9:07
  uh,
• 9:07
  vibes,
• 9:08
  right?
• 9:08
  If you're know,
• 9:08
  who,
• 9:09
  who's gonna win?
• 9:09
  Is it gonna be the,
• 9:10
  uh,
• 9:11
  you know,
• 9:11
  the,
• 9:12
  the Patriots or the Seahawks?
• 9:13
  There's a lot of money going in those markets,
• 9:16
  OK?
• 9:16
  And
• 9:17
  you,
• 9:18
  to win in a market like that is really,
• 9:21
  really difficult because
• 9:22
  they're so smart.
• 9:23
  One of the,
• 9:24
  one of the largest participants in these markets,
• 9:26
  at least this is the reporting,
• 9:28
  and we don't know this for sure,
• 9:29
  of course.
• 9:30
  But
• 9:31
  the actual sports books,
• 9:33
  the the people at the sports books who have imbalances on
• 9:37
  their books can go on these and offset their balances.
• 9:40
  That's the type of money you're talking about.
• 9:41
  Millions of dollars are going into these.
• 9:43
  Yes,
• 9:44
  you can get lucky.
• 9:45
  You can turn $8000 into $41,000
• 9:48
  just like you could do at any casino,
• 9:49
  right?
• 9:50
  If that's how you decide to use it.
• 9:51
  And to be clear,
• 9:53
  you can do this anywhere.
• 9:55
  You can gamble,
• 9:56
  you can turn
• 9:57
  anything into gambling if you want to.
• 9:59
  You can do meme stocks,
• 10:00
  you can do penny stocks,
• 10:02
  or you can go in and buy a really boring index fund,
• 10:05
  right?
• 10:06
  That is what is out there and available to you if you want it.
• 10:11
  So this guy
• 10:12
  turns $8000 into $41,000.
• 10:14
  He should have probably stopped,
• 10:15
  but this is where he went next.
• 10:17
  Then he placed his most audacious bet,
• 10:19
  yet,
• 10:20
  all $41,000 that a celebrity would say a particular word on TV,
• 10:26
  he lost it all.
• 10:29
  Now,
• 10:30
  Is that,
• 10:31
  I'm not saying
• 10:33
  that
• 10:34
  there aren't any stories like that,
• 10:36
  but is that a typical experience?
• 10:38
  A,
• 10:38
  a line cook that takes,
• 10:40
  uh,
• 10:40
  it turns,
• 10:41
  gets $41,000 between betting on snow
• 10:44
  and betting on sports gambling,
• 10:46
  and then
• 10:47
  throws
• 10:47
  all of it,
• 10:48
  100%
• 10:50
  of his,
• 10:50
  of his pocketbook
• 10:52
  on
• 10:53
  a mention market
• 10:54
  and loses.
• 10:56
  Is it possible to do that?
• 10:58
  Of course it's possible to do that.
• 10:59
  Question is whether it's a good idea or if that's how normal people use this,
• 11:04
  and of course it's a total outlier.
• 11:05
  Let me give you the second example of
• 11:07
  why these are a problem.
• 11:08
  Are you ready for it?
• 11:09
  It's detailed.
• 11:10
  A self,
• 11:11
  this is how it starts,
• 11:11
  a self-described problem gambler.
• 11:16
  I mean,
• 11:17
  come on.
• 11:17
  In Connecticut,
• 11:18
  lost $2000 in a day betting on the Super Bowl on Callihi
• 11:21
  during the fourth quarter,
• 11:22
  a tense fourth quarter.
• 11:23
  Really wasn't that tense.
• 11:24
  I don't know if anyone watched that game,
• 11:25
  but it wasn't that tense.
• 11:26
  A 31-year-old in Indiana who called the trading like a drug lost about $5000
• 11:31
  betting nearly daily on sports on Kalihi until the first months of the year.
• 11:34
  Again,
• 11:35
  you can use these things for all sorts of extreme betting.
• 11:37
  You can go on your E-Trade account too
• 11:40
  and buy stocks that are worth a penny
• 11:42
  and hope they go up.
• 11:44
  OK?
• 11:44
  That's all available to you.
• 11:45
  You can do that with crypto,
• 11:46
  you can do that with investment,
• 11:47
  you can do that with options,
• 11:48
  you can do that with derivatives,
• 11:50
  you can do this with
• 11:51
  a million different topics.
• 11:54
  Or you can do things a little bit more sanely.
• 11:56
  And of course,
• 11:57
  that's what we're trying to,
• 11:58
  uh,
• 11:59
  get through and help you with here,
• 12:01
  unpredictable.
• 12:02
  But also,
• 12:03
  uh,
• 12:03
  this is how you should be thinking about this on your daily life.
• 12:06
  If you're thinking about,
• 12:06
  I'm gonna turn $2000 into $41,000 and then bet it all on 40 $41,000 on a word.
• 12:12
  You're probably gonna wind up losing.
• 12:14
  In fact,
• 12:14
  you're definitely gonna wind up losing eventually,
• 12:16
  because when you're betting,
• 12:17
  quote unquote,
• 12:18
  betting your entire uh wallet on one
• 12:21
  particular wager,
• 12:22
  eventually you're going to lose once,
• 12:24
  and then it all is gone.
• 12:26
  That's just a certainty,
• 12:27
  it's math.
• 12:29
  Don't do that
• 12:31
  But the whole article is more,
• 12:33
  and there's a bunch of outliers of crazy people who do crazy things in here,
• 12:36
  but,
• 12:37
  uh,
• 12:37
  it is,
• 12:38
  it also has a,
• 12:39
  um,
• 12:39
  uh,
• 12:40
  it's trying to talk you out of getting into prediction markets.
• 12:43
  And look,
• 12:44
  you know,
• 12:44
  if you don't like them,
• 12:45
  that's fine.
• 12:45
  One thing about this show is we're gonna use prediction
• 12:48
  markets largely to inform our view of the world.
• 12:50
  So if you don't care about prediction markets,
• 12:51
  if you don't wanna get into them,
• 12:52
  um,
• 12:53
  we're just gonna take the value out of them.
• 12:54
  We're gonna let all those people
• 12:56
  go do all those things in all those markets and
• 12:58
  take the information and suck that information out for you.
• 13:00
  And be able to say,
• 13:01
  OK,
• 13:01
  this is what these things are.
• 13:02
  This is another tool to help us understand the world.
• 13:05
  So whether you like prediction markets or not,
• 13:06
  I think you're gonna like this show.
• 13:08
  But let me give you a little bit more of
• 13:09
  this piece from the Wall Street Journal on Calhi,
• 13:12
  uh,
• 13:12
  this observer,
• 13:14
  uh,
• 13:14
  talked about in this particular article.
• 13:16
  A large number of casual traders just bet yes on what they hope will happen.
• 13:21
  That's not what you see in crypto or
• 13:23
  a stock exchange where people are trading securities.
• 13:25
  I got news for you.
• 13:26
  That's what a lot of people are doing on a lot of these markets.
• 13:28
  You're telling me that people don't go in there and throw
• 13:30
  money at Bitcoin with the hope that it goes up,
• 13:32
  and that's really their only piece of knowledge on the,
• 13:34
  on the market.
• 13:34
  Of course that happens.
• 13:36
  You think that happens with Nvidia?
• 13:38
  Of course it happens.
• 13:39
  There are a lot of people who go in and do all sorts of,
• 13:41
  of things,
• 13:41
  but the,
• 13:42
  the point is not to scare everybody away from what could
• 13:44
  be a good investment and something that could improve their future.
• 13:47
  Instead,
• 13:47
  let's talk about doing it the right way.
• 13:50
  Uh,
• 13:50
  they say more than 70% of polymarket users lose money,
• 13:54
  says the Wall Street Journal.
• 13:56
  A working paper last month from researchers
• 13:57
  in France and Canada had similar findings.
• 13:59
  They found that the gains on prediction
• 14:01
  markets go almost entirely to sophisticated traders,
• 14:04
  while the long shot bets and unsophisticated.
• 14:06
  Traders take losses.
• 14:08
  You will usually lose when you take long shot bets.
• 14:11
  That is true.
• 14:12
  That's,
• 14:13
  uh,
• 14:13
  how long shots actually work.
• 14:15
  In fact,
• 14:15
  they inform you that they are a long shot by telling you they are a
• 14:18
  long shot and giving you like 1% and they're giving you 100 times your money.
• 14:21
  You should expect to lose almost all the time
• 14:24
  when you're betting at something,
• 14:25
  uh,
• 14:25
  or investing on something that has a 1% chance of success.
• 14:29
  It indicates the possibility of a 99% chance of loss.
• 14:33
  That's how percentages work.
• 14:35
  The journal's analysis of poly-market trading data indicates
• 14:38
  a typical user is down between 1 and
• 14:40
  $100 while the least successful of poly-market traders
• 14:43
  have lost an average of $4000 each.
• 14:45
  And this is one of the things,
• 14:46
  these numbers get skewed very easily.
• 14:48
  A lot of people
• 14:50
  hear about an app like Calsci or Polymarket.
• 14:52
  They hop on,
• 14:53
  they throw a few bucks at something,
• 14:54
  they might win once,
• 14:55
  maybe they'll win twice,
• 14:57
  then they lose because they put all their money on something and they wind up losing.
• 15:00
  And that's the end of it,
• 15:01
  and they never really go back.
• 15:03
  That's where you're getting what,
• 15:04
  why they look at raw numbers of accounts.
• 15:06
  The people who win don't leave.
• 15:08
  The people who lose,
• 15:09
  they come in and they filter in and they take a couple of shots and then
• 15:12
  they bail and never think about this again
• 15:13
  because those people aren't necessarily trying to do this
• 15:16
  in the type of ways that we're,
• 15:17
  we're talking about here.
• 15:19
  And the,
• 15:19
  the idea that
• 15:21
  sophisticated large traders make a,
• 15:23
  a,
• 15:24
  a,
• 15:24
  a large portion of the profits
• 15:26
  makes a lot of sense
• 15:28
  because they're the ones putting all of the money at risk.
• 15:31
  Right?
• 15:31
  When you go in there with $4
• 15:34
  my wife has $20 she put into Calshy.
• 15:36
  She's now up to $27 by the way.
• 15:38
  She's up 35%.
• 15:39
  OK,
• 15:39
  how,
• 15:39
  how's that for an investment?
• 15:40
  I will tell you,
• 15:40
  it's more profitable than a vacuum habit,
• 15:43
  which is going the opposite direction for our financial future.
• 15:45
  Um,
• 15:46
  but
• 15:47
  It is a situation where
• 15:49
  her money is not going to
• 15:51
  move
• 15:53
  the,
• 15:53
  uh,
• 15:55
  these overall numbers on a huge exchange like Poly Maret or Calciet.
• 15:58
  There's millions and billions of dollars are going into these markets,
• 16:02
  right?
• 16:02
  Uh,
• 16:03
  they're worth,
• 16:03
  I mean,
• 16:04
  both Cal Calci and polymarket are worth around $20 billion each,
• 16:08
  and that's the last time they value them.
• 16:09
  It goes up every single time.
• 16:11
  They
• 16:11
  provide this healthy,
• 16:12
  healthy,
• 16:13
  uh,
• 16:13
  chart.
• 16:14
  Uh,
• 16:14
  just 0.1% of accounts
• 16:16
  on polymarket take home 67%
• 16:19
  of the profits.
• 16:20
  OK,
• 16:20
  that sounds like a really scary number.
• 16:22
  OK.
• 16:22
  And you see that there's more accounts that do lose than,
• 16:25
  than win.
• 16:25
  Of course,
• 16:26
  again,
• 16:26
  the people who lose are
• 16:28
  a lot of people who are just jumping in,
• 16:29
  trying something new,
• 16:30
  throwing a few bucks at it for entertainment,
• 16:32
  and then never coming back.
• 16:32
  That's a lot of the people
• 16:34
  that you see in that lower red area.
• 16:36
  When it comes to,
• 16:36
  uh,
• 16:37
  uh,
• 16:37
  profitable,
• 16:37
  you see 33%
• 16:39
  of the profits come from the top accounts.
• 16:41
  You know,
• 16:41
  you kind of have to make a decision,
• 16:42
  right?
• 16:43
  If you were just just random distribution.
• 16:46
  You're,
• 16:47
  there's a 50/50 chance you're in the top or the bottom if
• 16:49
  you have no knowledge of who you are or what you think.
• 16:52
  If you don't think you can be
• 16:53
  in the top 30% of traders,
• 16:55
  well,
• 16:57
  Frankly,
• 16:57
  you know,
• 16:58
  it might not be the thing for you,
• 16:59
  and that's fine.
• 17:00
  You know,
• 17:00
  we'll still suck out all the information for free from,
• 17:03
  from these,
• 17:03
  these incredible tools,
• 17:04
  and we'll learn a lot about the world together.
• 17:06
  That's fine.
• 17:07
  If you don't think you,
• 17:07
  you're,
• 17:08
  like,
• 17:08
  hey,
• 17:08
  I know politics better than most people I know,
• 17:12
  you probably don't wanna go huge in these markets.
• 17:14
  I mean,
• 17:15
  maybe you wanna play a little bit,
• 17:16
  have some fun.
• 17:17
  You know,
• 17:17
  again,
• 17:17
  I keep bringing this up to people who're like,
• 17:18
  oh gosh,
• 17:19
  well,
• 17:20
  Uh,
• 17:20
  you know,
• 17:20
  some people lose money.
• 17:21
  Yeah,
• 17:21
  some people do lose money.
• 17:23
  I know that everything else I do in my life,
• 17:24
  I always lose money.
• 17:26
  When I go to,
• 17:27
  you know,
• 17:27
  a,
• 17:27
  a restaurant,
• 17:28
  they take it every time.
• 17:29
  They never,
• 17:30
  it's not like every 8th meal,
• 17:31
  they're like,
• 17:32
  hey,
• 17:32
  you won $100.
• 17:33
  That never happens.
• 17:34
  When I go out to a movie,
• 17:36
  the movie usually sucks.
• 17:38
  Uh,
• 17:38
  but uh,
• 17:39
  one thing that never happens is that at the end of it,
• 17:40
  they say,
• 17:41
  well,
• 17:41
  you know what,
• 17:41
  I guess,
• 17:42
  guess what?
• 17:42
  You got 9 free movies because you were here today.
• 17:45
  Like,
• 17:45
  you know,
• 17:46
  Calsier Polymarket provides a little entertainment for some people.
• 17:48
  They sometimes win,
• 17:49
  they sometimes lose.
• 17:50
  That's not the people I'm talking about.
• 17:51
  Let me show you why
• 17:52
  it's important to understand
• 17:54
  that these numbers like,
• 17:55
  oh gosh,
• 17:56
  0.1% of the traders
• 17:57
  get 67% of the profits on the platform.
• 18:00
  Let me give you the top,
• 18:02
  uh,
• 18:02
  what is this?
• 18:02
  8 traders
• 18:04
  on polymarket right now.
• 18:05
  This is from a,
• 18:06
  a site,
• 18:06
  uh,
• 18:07
  Polymarkett Analytics that,
• 18:08
  that breaks this stuff down.
• 18:09
  And it's a little,
• 18:10
  it might be a little difficult to see,
• 18:11
  but let me break this down for you.
• 18:13
  All of them,
• 18:14
  like,
• 18:14
  for example,
• 18:14
  uh,
• 18:15
  the,
• 18:15
  the guy here,
• 18:16
  I can't even read these graphics.
• 18:17
  I'm sorry,
• 18:18
  on here,
• 18:18
  but it's millions and millions of dollars,
• 18:20
  um,
• 18:21
  that are being traded by these guys.
• 18:23
  And if you see the,
• 18:24
  the sort of red and green breakdown in the middle,
• 18:27
  those are their wins and losses.
• 18:30
  2 of the top 8 traders on polymarket,
• 18:32
  2 of the top 8.
• 18:34
  In this time period,
• 18:36
  have below 50% success rates.
• 18:40
  They're losing a lot.
• 18:41
  They're just winning the right positions when they win.
• 18:45
  They are putting millions and millions and millions
• 18:47
  of dollars on both sides of these transactions.
• 18:50
  Some of them are like,
• 18:51
  hey,
• 18:51
  they won,
• 18:52
  they're up $4 million.
• 18:54
  They won $36 million and lost $32 million.
• 18:57
  Well,
• 18:58
  when you have people like that.
• 19:00
  That are skewing,
• 19:01
  these are just whales in there doing their thing.
• 19:03
  Yes,
• 19:04
  they're gonna have most of the profits cause other people they're,
• 19:07
  you're comparing them to put $100 on the platform.
• 19:10
  It's gonna be really hard for them to win $4 million.
• 19:14
  This is what's going on right now,
• 19:17
  and over and over again,
• 19:18
  they keep trying to skew these things into uh to make them a scary foreign thing.
• 19:23
  One of the things we're gonna do here is break them down so they're not that way,
• 19:26
  right?
• 19:26
  They don't have to be scary,
• 19:27
  they don't have to be intimidating.
• 19:28
  What it has,
• 19:29
  what's great about these markets is they're so much more accessible
• 19:33
  than traditional investments.
• 19:35
  You know,
• 19:35
  think about trying to even understand how to trade options,
• 19:38
  right?
• 19:38
  It's very difficult.
• 19:39
  Think about going on and
• 19:41
  really unders,
• 19:41
  I mean,
• 19:41
  I know,
• 19:42
  you know,
• 19:42
  AI is gonna be big,
• 19:43
  so Nvidia,
• 19:44
  right?
• 19:45
  Uh,
• 19:45
  hey,
• 19:46
  you know,
• 19:46
  iPhones sell a lot,
• 19:47
  uh,
• 19:47
  Apple.
• 19:48
  That's about what people put in the stock market when they're thinking about it.
• 19:52
  And they don't have a lot of information
• 19:54
  necessarily on those things other than the basics.
• 19:57
  When it comes to prediction markets,
• 19:58
  it's a simple yes or no
• 20:00
  question,
• 20:01
  and if you know something,
• 20:03
  About a particular topic,
• 20:04
  if there's something you're really invested in,
• 20:05
  something you're really interested in,
• 20:07
  something you want to study,
• 20:08
  you want to read,
• 20:09
  you wanna think about
• 20:10
  a little bit more than,
• 20:11
  uh,
• 20:11
  you know,
• 20:12
  the,
• 20:12
  the,
• 20:12
  the,
• 20:13
  is iPhone good or bad.
• 20:15
  If you have that inside of you,
• 20:17
  it's something you wanna do,
• 20:18
  these are great markets to get in
• 20:19
  because you're answering a very specific question.
• 20:21
  Kelsey just added these things,
• 20:22
  uh,
• 20:23
  KPIs where you can go in,
• 20:24
  there's just specific measures for companies.
• 20:26
  Do you think this product is gonna sell well?
• 20:28
  Um,
• 20:29
  is it gonna sell over this many units?
• 20:31
  That's a question that you can ask and maybe you have an opinion on,
• 20:33
  right?
• 20:34
  Uh,
• 20:34
  maybe you think a product's about to take off and you want,
• 20:36
  you wanna see if you can,
• 20:37
  uh,
• 20:38
  collect some on an investment on that.
• 20:40
  You can get a yes or a no,
• 20:41
  where if you just invest in the stock,
• 20:44
  there's a lot of other variables.
• 20:45
  Maybe one of their other products fails.
• 20:48
  Maybe there's a supply chain issue somewhere.
• 20:50
  Maybe,
• 20:51
  you know,
• 20:51
  their,
• 20:52
  uh,
• 20:53
  their CEO is in the Epstein files.
• 20:56
  And,
• 20:56
  uh,
• 20:57
  all of a sudden,
• 20:58
  here you are,
• 20:58
  your stock's down 40%,
• 21:00
  even though you were right
• 21:01
  on how many they would sell.
• 21:02
  Bottom line is,
• 21:03
  I think these are more accessible,
• 21:04
  not less.
• 21:05
  And,
• 21:05
  and that seems to be,
• 21:07
  I don't know,
• 21:07
  the intimidation level from the more professional class on this stuff.
• 21:10
  Uh,
• 21:10
  give me a little bit more.
• 21:11
  Um,
• 21:12
  and just to give you a sense of this.
• 21:15
  You have to understand that there are real pros out there.
• 21:18
  It's not nothing,
• 21:19
  it,
• 21:19
  you're not going in here and just going against people who know nothing.
• 21:22
  This is not what these markets are.
• 21:24
  There was a time,
• 21:25
  a glorious time in the past,
• 21:27
  where that was sort of the case.
• 21:28
  Like you could really go in here and sometimes clean up,
• 21:31
  uh,
• 21:31
  with people who didn't really know what they were talking about,
• 21:33
  and it was kind of nice,
• 21:34
  uh,
• 21:34
  as a trader,
• 21:35
  you were like,
• 21:35
  oh gosh,
• 21:36
  that,
• 21:36
  that price is completely wrong.
• 21:38
  I'm gonna go the other way on it.
• 21:40
  Uh,
• 21:40
  there are a lot of people in here.
• 21:41
  Let me give you an example.
• 21:42
  Jonathan Stahl Ryan,
• 21:43
  a co-founder of another firm with about 12 staff,
• 21:45
  like him,
• 21:46
  all college,
• 21:46
  college students.
• 21:47
  The firm is among the top 5 traders by volume,
• 21:49
  betting on crypto prices on Calci.
• 21:52
  And Stahl Ryan has turned $1000 into seven-figure profits.
• 21:57
  The company pays more than $200,000 a year for live data feeds,
• 22:01
  AI coding agents,
• 22:02
  and servers,
• 22:03
  and uses algorithms to execute live trades,
• 22:05
  tens of thousands a day.
• 22:07
  You should know people like that are out there.
• 22:09
  And the way they make money is not
• 22:11
  necessarily knowing or predicting what the future is.
• 22:14
  They are helping with price discovery,
• 22:16
  uh,
• 22:16
  and I think they're a positive,
• 22:18
  um,
• 22:18
  uh,
• 22:19
  influence on these markets.
• 22:20
  When,
• 22:21
  when they see a weakness in a market,
• 22:22
  they'll come in,
• 22:23
  but
• 22:24
  A lot of these guys are just coming in,
• 22:25
  they're trading tens of thousands of times a day,
• 22:28
  and they're chipping away
• 22:29
  like,
• 22:30
  uh,
• 22:30
  what was it?
• 22:30
  Superman
• 22:31
  3?
• 22:32
  Was it 3 or 4,
• 22:33
  where they were taking the little shaves of penny,
• 22:35
  uh,
• 22:35
  office space.
• 22:36
  They would take the little shake,
• 22:38
  the shavings of pennies
• 22:39
  and pocketing them because of millions of,
• 22:41
  uh,
• 22:41
  transactions a day or whatever they're trying to do.
• 22:45
  That's not how I,
• 22:46
  I look at this stuff at all.
• 22:47
  I look at something that says,
• 22:48
  hey,
• 22:48
  in 3 months,
• 22:49
  something's going to happen.
• 22:51
  And it says there's a 40% chance that I think it's an 80% chance.
• 22:54
  So I'm gonna go in there.
• 22:55
  If I get in,
• 22:57
  one of these traders might get it at 40% and I might get it at 41%.
• 23:00
  I'm not that worried about that.
• 23:02
  That's not the game I'm playing.
• 23:03
  The game that they are playing,
• 23:05
  flash trading,
• 23:07
  very quick,
• 23:08
  incredibly high technology levels,
• 23:10
  uh,
• 23:11
  all sorts of advanced technology.
• 23:12
  If you're trying to beat them at that game,
• 23:14
  like this,
• 23:15
  uh,
• 23:15
  guy from,
• 23:16
  uh,
• 23:17
  the steakhouse,
• 23:17
  Outback Steakhouse was doing with
• 23:19
  his AI probably free chat GBT
• 23:22
  trying to get some model figured out.
• 23:23
  If that's what you're trying to do,
• 23:25
  look,
• 23:26
  It's not impossible you'll succeed,
• 23:27
  but I would say it's pretty unlikely.
• 23:28
  A lot of people have that idea.
• 23:30
  And a lot of people are putting incredible resources into trying to do that.
• 23:34
  They're trying to get the slightest trading advantages,
• 23:36
  and they're trading in and out of positions.
• 23:38
  You know,
• 23:39
  sometimes hundreds of times a minute.
• 23:41
  Uh,
• 23:42
  you're not gonna,
• 23:42
  that's,
• 23:42
  if you're trying to play that game,
• 23:43
  it's gonna be really difficult.
• 23:45
  When you're looking long term,
• 23:46
  you're taking,
• 23:47
  uh,
• 23:47
  you're taking investments and positions on,
• 23:49
  on,
• 23:49
  on things that make sense
• 23:51
  over a long period of time
• 23:52
  with deeper knowledge,
• 23:53
  and you're not looking to try to
• 23:56
  do this at some crazy volume.
• 23:57
  There are real opportunities out there.
• 24:00
  Um,
• 24:00
  and by the way,
• 24:01
  our friend,
• 24:01
  uh,
• 24:02
  uh,
• 24:02
  from Outback Steakhouse,
• 24:04
  unfortunately,
• 24:04
  he did lose it all.
• 24:06
  He had few other resources to turn to.
• 24:08
  It's a really a sad story.
• 24:09
  He's currently living in a homeless shelter in downtown Detroit,
• 24:12
  which how could you even tell with Detroit
• 24:13
  if you're in a homeless shelter or not.
• 24:15
  Uh,
• 24:16
  frankly,
• 24:16
  that's,
• 24:17
  it's hard to know.
• 24:17
  But,
• 24:18
  uh,
• 24:18
  anyway,
• 24:18
  uh,
• 24:19
  he,
• 24:19
  this is the best part of the story.
• 24:21
  He recently got an offer to,
• 24:23
  for a job selling mortgages.
• 24:25
  Of course,
• 24:25
  this is the guy,
• 24:26
  right?
• 24:27
  Cause there's never been any problem with mortgages ruining our economy.
• 24:31
  Let's bring the guy from Outback Steakhouse who blew his savings
• 24:35
  on bet after bet after bet after bet after bet.
• 24:38
  On whether,
• 24:40
  by the way,
• 24:40
  the,
• 24:40
  the market he went into was whether a rapper would say the word rapper on television.
• 24:46
  By the way,
• 24:47
  I felt bad for him because the guy actually said rapper,
• 24:50
  but they cut it out of the interview.
• 24:52
  That sucks,
• 24:53
  I will say.
• 24:53
  Mention markets are very finicky creatures,
• 24:55
  I will say.
• 24:56
  We like doing them.
• 24:57
  They're fun,
• 24:58
  but I wouldn't say that they're the peak of my,
• 24:59
  uh,
• 25:00
  they're on,
• 25:00
  on our DGo meter.
• 25:02
  They're a little bit
• 25:02
  more towards the DGen side
• 25:04
  than I like to be,
• 25:05
  although they are a little fun,
• 25:06
  I will say that as well.
• 25:07
  OK.
• 25:08
  I wanna come back,
• 25:08
  uh,
• 25:08
  take a break and come back on the other side with,
• 25:10
  uh,
• 25:11
  uh,
• 25:12
  Dan Andros,
• 25:12
  and I wanna talk to him.
• 25:14
  I've got a couple of things to take up with him,
• 25:16
  uh,
• 25:16
  a couple of bones to pick with Mr.
• 25:18
  Andros
• 25:18
  on some markets,
• 25:19
  so I want to get to that
• 25:20
  next.
• 25:22
  Welcome back to Predictable.
• 25:23
  PredictableShow.com,
• 25:24
  by the way,
• 25:25
  is uh the place to go to
• 25:27
  not only get the show and some of the behind the scenes stuff,
• 25:29
  but also,
• 25:30
  uh,
• 25:31
  some live streams and written pieces on particular markets.
• 25:34
  We're gonna be building that out more
• 25:36
  as we get started here.
• 25:37
  This is,
• 25:37
  again,
• 25:38
  not even a full show.
• 25:39
  We don't have all of our graphics ready.
• 25:41
  We're just first day in the studio,
• 25:42
  first day,
• 25:42
  new dicks.
• 25:43
  So,
• 25:43
  thanks for joining us
• 25:44
  here on Predictable and make sure to go
• 25:46
  to predictableShow.com and join us there as well.
• 25:49
  You can do it with just an email.
• 25:50
  I want to bring in Dan Andros.
• 25:52
  Uh,
• 25:53
  welcome to the program,
• 25:54
  Dan,
• 25:55
  uh,
• 25:55
  you know,
• 25:56
  Dan,
• 25:56
  of course,
• 25:56
  over doing Quick Start with the CBN
• 25:59
  and uh he's been on our programs over the years many,
• 26:01
  many times.
• 26:02
  Andros,
• 26:03
  uh,
• 26:03
  of course,
• 26:03
  here to bring the Danny Long shots advice,
• 26:06
  uh,
• 26:07
  for all of our prediction market fund.
• 26:08
  Dan,
• 26:09
  welcome to the program.
• 26:10
  All right,
• 26:11
  thanks for having me,
• 26:11
  Stu.
• 26:12
  Uh,
• 26:12
  one of the things we were just talking about,
• 26:13
  I would love to get your reaction on is
• 26:15
  the fact that the media,
• 26:16
  you realize how when it's.
• 26:18
  When,
• 26:19
  when it's about things that you understand,
• 26:20
  you realize how bad they are.
• 26:22
  And it's,
• 26:23
  I think this is another example of,
• 26:24
  of prediction markets because when you see how they handle prediction markets,
• 26:28
  you realize how bad they must be on everything else.
• 26:30
  Right?
• 26:30
  When you take it,
• 26:31
  if you've been following the news very closely over the
• 26:33
  years and you look at how they spin different things,
• 26:37
  uh,
• 26:37
  you know,
• 26:37
  it kind of gets
• 26:38
  muddy and like they're,
• 26:40
  like that's kind of when they're on like they're a spin
• 26:42
  game is when it's in like politics and stuff like that.
• 26:45
  But then when you see them try to do it,
• 26:46
  in their mind,
• 26:47
  they're just saying,
• 26:48
  Prediction market bad,
• 26:50
  we need to spin this bad.
• 26:51
  What do we do?
• 26:52
  And they go and find,
• 26:54
  they try to find the poster child,
• 26:55
  but they don't know how to do it.
• 26:56
  Like this is uncharted territory for them.
• 26:58
  So they grab
• 27:00
  this guy,
• 27:00
  and you have to realize that this is what they do
• 27:04
  on all the other topics.
• 27:05
  They're just a little bit,
• 27:06
  you know,
• 27:06
  they're just a little bit more clever with it,
• 27:08
  right?
• 27:08
  They've had more practice at it over the years.
• 27:10
  So when the border situation,
• 27:11
  they wanna
• 27:13
  say,
• 27:13
  you know,
• 27:14
  Trump's border crackdown is bad or whatever it is they wanna say,
• 27:17
  they go and find.
• 27:19
  You know,
• 27:20
  uh,
• 27:20
  the most sad story they can find out of the whole thing,
• 27:23
  which is not indicative generally of everything that's happening
• 27:26
  all the time.
• 27:26
  I mean,
• 27:27
  this is what politicians have been doing forever,
• 27:29
  right?
• 27:29
  They'll take the one sad story,
• 27:31
  the one sob story,
• 27:32
  the one really tragic thing,
• 27:33
  and try to turn that
• 27:34
  into something,
• 27:35
  and it's the opposite when they want the opposite result,
• 27:38
  right?
• 27:38
  If like if they loved prediction markets,
• 27:40
  they would be featuring the guy who,
• 27:41
  I mean,
• 27:42
  I met several of them,
• 27:43
  uh,
• 27:44
  at one of the prediction conferences I went to a couple of weeks ago.
• 27:47
  In people who have took almost no money and turned it into
• 27:49
  hundreds of thousands and sometimes millions
• 27:51
  of dollars because they're really smart,
• 27:53
  just smart guys,
• 27:54
  uh,
• 27:55
  people who are smart,
• 27:56
  who were thinking these things out,
• 27:58
  who were interested in trying to understand these markets a little bit better,
• 28:01
  and were able to take advantage of them,
• 28:03
  those people don't get featured nearly as often.
• 28:07
  Yeah,
• 28:07
  and like,
• 28:08
  how do you take away anything other
• 28:10
  than this article other than that this guy is,
• 28:14
  you know,
• 28:14
  got a,
• 28:14
  has a gambling problem or is not smart.
• 28:17
  Like I,
• 28:17
  I don't understand how you can look at it and say the thing is bad that he's engaged.
• 28:21
  Like,
• 28:21
  did he engage in this interview thinking,
• 28:24
  Man,
• 28:24
  I'm gonna show them how bad this prediction market thing is over here,
• 28:29
  when he made a series of some of the worst decisions you could possibly make
• 28:33
  at 33 years old.
• 28:35
  You lose your job,
• 28:36
  you go and do,
• 28:36
  uh,
• 28:37
  so we've all been young and we all,
• 28:40
  Had situations where maybe a job we had fell through,
• 28:43
  or we couldn't find a job,
• 28:44
  and you just get a job and you work.
• 28:47
  You don't sit there and go,
• 28:48
  you know what,
• 28:49
  it's a great idea,
• 28:49
  I'm gonna go ahead and get a
• 28:51
  variable rate loan and then just
• 28:53
  sit here and start
• 28:55
  flinging it around at places.
• 28:57
  It's literally the worst thing you could do.
• 29:00
  And so I don't,
• 29:01
  I don't see how this article proves anything,
• 29:03
  Stu,
• 29:03
  other than,
• 29:05
  This guy made some horrible decisions,
• 29:07
  right?
• 29:07
  I mean,
• 29:07
  you could easily just say,
• 29:09
  you know,
• 29:09
  uh,
• 29:09
  well,
• 29:10
  uh,
• 29:10
  did you know,
• 29:11
  uh,
• 29:12
  uh,
• 29:12
  Chick fil A,
• 29:13
  this guy ate,
• 29:14
  you know,
• 29:14
  9000 nuggets a day,
• 29:16
  and he's really fat and he had a heart attack,
• 29:19
  right?
• 29:19
  It's not Chick fil A's fault like that,
• 29:21
  you know,
• 29:21
  it's like you,
• 29:22
  you.
• 29:22
  You go there and you make your own decisions.
• 29:23
  And I swear,
• 29:25
  you know,
• 29:25
  this is a very progressive concern over a very long period of time,
• 29:28
  but like what they're trying to do is get rid
• 29:31
  of the possibility of people being able to control their own lives and outcomes.
• 29:35
  And,
• 29:35
  you know,
• 29:35
  they,
• 29:36
  they think everybody's too stupid.
• 29:37
  Everybody's gonna go do this.
• 29:38
  Well,
• 29:38
  that's not necessarily true.
• 29:40
  You can go do this another way.
• 29:41
  You can eat healthy at Chick fil A too.
• 29:44
  You can,
• 29:44
  you can do things the right way.
• 29:46
  We're gonna try to do that.
• 29:47
  Uh,
• 29:47
  here,
• 29:48
  I,
• 29:48
  I did want to get,
• 29:48
  uh,
• 29:49
  your go ahead and real quick though,
• 29:50
  all those politicians that are telling you all these
• 29:52
  things that are so bad for your life,
• 29:54
  they're the ones that all go out and
• 29:56
  have drinks at the bar afterwards at night.
• 30:00
  Yeah,
• 30:00
  so that's totally fine.
• 30:01
  Eric Swalwell's probably out there telling you how bad this is for you,
• 30:05
  and then he goes and is,
• 30:07
  I don't know,
• 30:07
  hanging out with hookers and abusing people and all this other stuff,
• 30:11
  but.
• 30:11
  But we're gonna get lectured on them,
• 30:12
  on,
• 30:13
  you know,
• 30:13
  putting a couple of bucks into a,
• 30:15
  a market.
• 30:16
  I mean,
• 30:16
  it's crazy.
• 30:17
  It's very sad,
• 30:18
  Dan,
• 30:18
  that,
• 30:18
  uh,
• 30:18
  Eric Swalwell did all of his molesting
• 30:21
  before he started talking about prediction markets
• 30:23
  because he would have been just as dumb as he is on everything else
• 30:26
  and would have given us so much,
• 30:27
  uh,
• 30:28
  material,
• 30:29
  over a long period of time.
• 30:30
  But I suppose that's,
• 30:31
  uh,
• 30:31
  uh,
• 30:32
  neither here nor there because Eric is
• 30:34
  thankfully out of our lives.
• 30:36
  Um,
• 30:36
  I wanted to,
• 30:37
  uh,
• 30:37
  bring a couple of quick things to you.
• 30:39
  Have a quick,
• 30:39
  uh,
• 30:39
  bone to pick with you on this particular market.
• 30:42
  Oh boy.
• 30:43
  So there's a new movie coming out.
• 30:46
  Star Wars,
• 30:47
  The Mandalorian and Grogu,
• 30:49
  uh,
• 30:49
  is coming out
• 30:51
  and,
• 30:52
  uh,
• 30:52
  yeah,
• 30:52
  yeah,
• 30:53
  I know you're a big Star Wars fan.
• 30:54
  We've watched Star Wars when we were kids together,
• 30:56
  right?
• 30:56
  So
• 30:58
  I know you're a huge fan of this.
• 31:00
  Um,
• 31:01
  You know,
• 31:02
  if you happen to listen to the show,
• 31:03
  we did an interview,
• 31:04
  uh,
• 31:04
  with Michael Selig,
• 31:05
  the,
• 31:05
  uh,
• 31:06
  the head of the chair of the,
• 31:07
  uh,
• 31:08
  CFTC,
• 31:09
  uh,
• 31:09
  who oversees prediction markets for the Trump administration,
• 31:12
  and he,
• 31:12
  one of the things he pointed out was that you cannot,
• 31:14
  uh,
• 31:15
  go on Calci or Polymarket or any of these prediction markets and
• 31:18
  do anything with,
• 31:18
  uh,
• 31:19
  box office receipts because that for some reason.
• 31:22
  Some favor to somebody in Hollywood
• 31:24
  was actually exempted out of,
• 31:26
  uh,
• 31:26
  their oversight,
• 31:27
  which is an amazing story in and of itself.
• 31:29
  But the way that they sort of replicate these markets on Calci and Polly Market is,
• 31:34
  is the movie gonna be any good?
• 31:35
  And the data point that they have for that
• 31:38
  is,
• 31:38
  um,
• 31:39
  uh,
• 31:39
  Rotten Tomatoes.
• 31:40
  So Rotten Tomatoes takes all the,
• 31:42
  you know,
• 31:42
  professional critic reviews,
• 31:44
  and they give you a percentage.
• 31:45
  Is it,
• 31:45
  is it a good movie or is it a bad movie?
• 31:48
  And we now have,
• 31:49
  uh,
• 31:50
  uh,
• 31:50
  at least a forecast
• 31:51
  as to what this particular
• 31:54
  market will be.
• 31:55
  And it is,
• 31:55
  uh,
• 31:56
  Star Wars,
• 31:56
  Mandalorian,
• 31:57
  and Grogu,
• 31:57
  The Rotten Tomato score projected to be 74.3,
• 32:01
  74.3.
• 32:03
  To give you a sense of what that means,
• 32:05
  Dan,
• 32:06
  you've got 74.3% is going to be ahead of,
• 32:09
  uh,
• 32:09
  Solo,
• 32:10
  a Star Wars story,
• 32:12
  ahead,
• 32:12
  which is at 70%.
• 32:14
  Star Wars Episode Two,
• 32:15
  Attack of the Clones,
• 32:16
  65%.
• 32:17
  Star Wars Episode One,
• 32:18
  The Phantom Menace at 52%.
• 32:20
  That's what's below it.
• 32:21
  Immediately above it
• 32:23
  is,
• 32:23
  uh,
• 32:24
  Revenge of the Sith,
• 32:25
  episode 3,
• 32:26
  at 79%,
• 32:28
  uh,
• 32:28
  Return of the Jedi is,
• 32:29
  83%.
• 32:31
  And then,
• 32:31
  uh,
• 32:32
  looking through some of the other ones,
• 32:33
  like,
• 32:34
  for example,
• 32:34
  the Mandalorian season 3
• 32:36
  is 84%.
• 32:37
  So they're saying basically a little bit worse than,
• 32:39
  uh,
• 32:40
  the,
• 32:40
  some of the seasons of Mandalorian,
• 32:42
  better than what some of the movies that I've seen have kind of flops,
• 32:46
  uh,
• 32:46
  if you will.
• 32:46
  There's not really a flop,
• 32:47
  I suppose,
• 32:48
  in the Star Wars universe,
• 32:49
  but
• 32:49
  that's kind of where they're seeing this play out.
• 32:53
  Uh,
• 32:53
  what do you think?
• 32:54
  Are you,
• 32:54
  do you think this is gonna be too high,
• 32:55
  too low?
• 32:56
  Where would you go on this?
• 32:57
  I,
• 32:57
  um,
• 32:58
  well,
• 32:58
  first of all,
• 32:59
  I will say,
• 33:00
  uh,
• 33:00
  it feels pretty close actually because
• 33:03
  my sense would be like the Mandalorian series.
• 33:06
  I believe was so good.
• 33:08
  Um,
• 33:09
  and then people are a little nervous when they see the trailer,
• 33:11
  they feel like it's gonna be,
• 33:13
  you know,
• 33:13
  a little bit sticky,
• 33:15
  and oh,
• 33:16
  the baby's gonna do cute things,
• 33:18
  and that's pretty much all it's gonna be,
• 33:19
  you know,
• 33:19
  it's like gonna be Jar Jar Binks in like a cuter package.
• 33:23
  Like I think that's what people are afraid of is going to happen.
• 33:26
  And so I can,
• 33:27
  I actually can see the market settling on that,
• 33:30
  but,
• 33:30
  uh,
• 33:31
  uh,
• 33:32
  so I don't hate where the market is actually.
• 33:34
  The only other thing I'll say is,
• 33:37
  If anything,
• 33:38
  it might even be a little bit bullish,
• 33:40
  because
• 33:41
  Star Wars fans are notoriously
• 33:45
  complainers.
• 33:46
  They complain
• 33:48
  about every,
• 33:49
  they cannot just,
• 33:50
  and,
• 33:51
  now listen,
• 33:51
  I know there have been some duds,
• 33:53
  I'm the big,
• 33:53
  one of the biggest Star Wars fans out there,
• 33:55
  and I,
• 33:56
  you know.
• 33:57
  I haven't even watched the,
• 33:58
  uh,
• 33:59
  you know,
• 34:00
  I,
• 34:00
  I,
• 34:00
  I haven't even thought about it in so long,
• 34:01
  I can't even remember the name off the top of my head as we're talking here,
• 34:04
  but the second one out of the last
• 34:06
  3,
• 34:06
  you know,
• 34:07
  oh gosh,
• 34:07
  yeah,
• 34:08
  the,
• 34:08
  the last Jedi or the
• 34:11
  you're talking episode 8,
• 34:12
  I guess.
• 34:13
  Yeah,
• 34:14
  oh gosh,
• 34:14
  that was terrible,
• 34:15
  terrible.
• 34:16
  It was so bad.
• 34:17
  And then the last one wasn't even like it
• 34:19
  was better but still weird and like not great.
• 34:21
  Like I,
• 34:22
  I have,
• 34:22
  you know,
• 34:23
  it's not good when you haven't like gone back to watch it.
• 34:25
  Like Solo's story to me is pretty underrated.
• 34:27
  I thought it was actually pretty good.
• 34:28
  It was fine.
• 34:29
  I,
• 34:29
  I,
• 34:29
  I don't know why people didn't like that one.
• 34:31
  I thought it was fine.
• 34:31
  I don't know either.
• 34:32
  I thought the guy they picked for Han did great,
• 34:34
  um,
• 34:35
  but yeah,
• 34:35
  I mean,
• 34:35
  I think,
• 34:36
  uh,
• 34:36
  I think people,
• 34:37
  if there's any schlockiness in it at all with Grogu.
• 34:41
  You could expect that,
• 34:42
  uh,
• 34:43
  that thing to go down.
• 34:44
  I gotta say,
• 34:44
  Dan,
• 34:44
  I,
• 34:45
  you know,
• 34:45
  I know you like the Mandalorian.
• 34:46
  Uh,
• 34:47
  I,
• 34:47
  I gotta actually,
• 34:48
  I gotta show you.
• 34:49
  Look,
• 34:49
  I don't know.
• 34:50
  Let's see if Dan is,
• 34:51
  uh,
• 34:52
  well,
• 34:52
  I mean,
• 34:53
  let's see,
• 34:53
  what do you have here?
• 34:53
  Well?
• 34:53
  I mean,
• 34:54
  I,
• 34:54
  I moved spots in here,
• 34:55
  and so you might have remembered this from,
• 34:57
  uh,
• 34:57
  let's see if I can get it from behind you,
• 34:59
  yeah,
• 34:59
  that your,
• 35:00
  your old set
• 35:01
  in your home,
• 35:01
  my old set,
• 35:02
  yeah,
• 35:02
  so I still have this prop here,
• 35:04
  so.
• 35:04
  You know,
• 35:05
  big Mando fan,
• 35:06
  but yeah,
• 35:06
  so,
• 35:06
  so what is your concern here?
• 35:08
  I just don't,
• 35:08
  I just,
• 35:09
  I think it was honestly kind of boring.
• 35:10
  I,
• 35:10
  I,
• 35:10
  I frankly didn't make it all the way through the seasons.
• 35:13
  Part of it,
• 35:14
  I will say,
• 35:15
  uh,
• 35:15
  to be completely transparent,
• 35:17
  was I was really annoyed by the Gina Carano thing.
• 35:20
  Like that really bothered me that she was,
• 35:22
  I thought the best character on the show.
• 35:24
  Um,
• 35:26
  and the fact that they just blew her out and tried to ruin her career,
• 35:29
  it was,
• 35:30
  it was so nonsense,
• 35:32
  over nonsense.
• 35:32
  It was so annoying to me.
• 35:33
  It was at the peak of the kind of that woke era,
• 35:35
  and that drove me so crazy that I
• 35:38
  had,
• 35:38
  I,
• 35:38
  I couldn't,
• 35:39
  I couldn't,
• 35:39
  maybe that was part of the problem I had with it,
• 35:41
  but it didn't keep my attention,
• 35:42
  I will say,
• 35:43
  uh,
• 35:44
  it just didn't have the,
• 35:45
  I don't know,
• 35:45
  it just
• 35:46
  a little boring.
• 35:47
  I mean,
• 35:47
  a little slow.
• 35:48
  How about that?
• 35:48
  A little slow.
• 35:50
  I mean,
• 35:51
  listen,
• 35:51
  I,
• 35:51
  uh.
• 35:53
  I mean,
• 35:53
  where do we even go on this?
• 35:54
  I
• 35:56
  I'm not sure if we're,
• 35:57
  uh,
• 35:57
  listen,
• 35:57
  we're,
• 35:58
  are we,
• 35:59
  did we grow up in the same town?
• 36:00
  I mean,
• 36:00
  I don't know,
• 36:01
  I'm a little surprised.
• 36:02
  I'm a little surprised that,
• 36:03
  uh,
• 36:03
  that you thought,
• 36:04
  no,
• 36:04
  I mean,
• 36:04
  because I could see that though on because the other one,
• 36:06
  Andor.
• 36:07
  I mean this is what happens when you come out with so many things,
• 36:09
  right?
• 36:09
  Andor was a little slow moving.
• 36:11
  Uh,
• 36:12
  I thought it was pretty good,
• 36:13
  but
• 36:13
  also slow moving.
• 36:14
  That's what I will say.
• 36:16
  I,
• 36:16
  I never saw,
• 36:17
  I gave up basically after the Gina Carano thing.
• 36:18
  I have not watched pretty much anything.
• 36:20
  That is a fair reason to give up.
• 36:22
  I actually had to very much power through it
• 36:24
  to,
• 36:25
  to keep going,
• 36:26
  uh,
• 36:26
  but Andor season one and Andor season 2,
• 36:28
  96 and 97% on Rotten Tomatoes.
• 36:31
  So the,
• 36:31
  the critics seem to very much like that.
• 36:33
  Uh,
• 36:33
  in fact,
• 36:34
  the most,
• 36:34
  basically the most popular thing
• 36:36
  Star Wars has ever done.
• 36:37
  Uh,
• 36:38
  so anyway,
• 36:38
  that's where we are,
• 36:39
  but it's not that good.
• 36:40
  But anyway,
• 36:40
  OK,
• 36:41
  uh,
• 36:41
  before you go,
• 36:42
  one more thing I have to bring this up.
• 36:43
  I hate to do this.
• 36:44
  It's not,
• 36:44
  um,
• 36:44
  you know,
• 36:45
  busting you,
• 36:45
  uh,
• 36:46
  busting on you for Star Wars is one thing.
• 36:48
  Unfortunately,
• 36:48
  the Boston Celtics,
• 36:49
  uh,
• 36:50
  lose a 3 to 1 lead
• 36:52
  and wind up,
• 36:53
  uh,
• 36:53
  wind up losing.
• 36:54
  I,
• 36:54
  you know,
• 36:55
  I did,
• 36:55
  was there a thought at all for you
• 36:58
  to do something that you know that I do often
• 37:00
  and hedge your life and
• 37:03
  take some,
• 37:03
  uh,
• 37:03
  investment dollars.
• 37:05
  Uh,
• 37:06
  and,
• 37:06
  and invest them in hedging your happiness
• 37:09
  and going with the other side,
• 37:10
  the Sixers in this particular
• 37:12
  instance,
• 37:13
  to try to make yourself feel a little bit better when the horrible thing happened.
• 37:17
  It is a very plausible life strategy,
• 37:20
  and uh one that I think is viable,
• 37:22
  uh,
• 37:23
  and,
• 37:23
  um,
• 37:24
  a,
• 37:24
  a worthwhile venture in,
• 37:25
  uh,
• 37:26
  in these sorts of situations where there's no upside,
• 37:29
  you know,
• 37:30
  really for them winning,
• 37:30
  cause they,
• 37:31
  I didn't actually,
• 37:32
  uh,
• 37:32
  to be honest with you,
• 37:33
  I didn't even watch much of game six and seven because,
• 37:36
  uh,
• 37:37
  at that point,
• 37:37
  you're up 3-1,
• 37:39
  and then 3-2,
• 37:40
  and it's just like,
• 37:41
  OK,
• 37:41
  if they win,
• 37:42
  they were supposed to win.
• 37:44
  And then if they lose the whole series,
• 37:46
  it's an utter disaster.
• 37:47
  So like watching it,
• 37:48
  you're just gonna be stressed out the whole time that they're gonna blow it.
• 37:52
  So,
• 37:53
  you know,
• 37:53
  but,
• 37:53
  yeah,
• 37:54
  very frustrating series,
• 37:55
  but uh if the,
• 37:56
  the Sixers were at like 30% even after they won two in a row,
• 38:00
  and it just stayed at 30%,
• 38:03
  and I just thought that's crazy.
• 38:04
  I'm watching the indicator going,
• 38:05
  that is,
• 38:06
  that is nuts.
• 38:07
  The,
• 38:07
  the Celtics clearly had not figured things out.
• 38:10
  Uh,
• 38:11
  and we're struggling and Embiid was back and the Sixers were rolling.
• 38:15
  Yeah,
• 38:15
  I was surprised.
• 38:15
  Uh,
• 38:16
  I was surprised.
• 38:16
  Although we did call it,
• 38:17
  we were talking about this before,
• 38:18
  uh,
• 38:19
  before the,
• 38:20
  uh,
• 38:20
  before game 6,
• 38:21
  what would happen if,
• 38:22
  if it went to game 7.
• 38:23
  We predicted 30%.
• 38:24
  Uh,
• 38:25
  1 of the things we were talking about it,
• 38:26
  that's about where it went to.
• 38:27
  I saw it at 28%,
• 38:28
  but it was right around there.
• 38:30
  Uh,
• 38:30
  so,
• 38:30
  uh,
• 38:31
  you know,
• 38:31
  again,
• 38:31
  with sports is sports and I love it,
• 38:33
  and I,
• 38:34
  you know,
• 38:34
  I love getting myself involved in it,
• 38:36
  but I will say it's one of the things
• 38:37
  that really is a,
• 38:39
  a,
• 38:39
  uh,
• 38:39
  They,
• 38:39
  some people call it an emotional hedge.
• 38:41
  I don't like that term.
• 38:42
  I like hedging your life.
• 38:43
  Hedging your life.
• 38:44
  It's not emotions,
• 38:45
  it's reason,
• 38:47
  because it's the most,
• 38:48
  sometimes the most important thing to you is a stupid game.
• 38:50
  And when that happens,
• 38:51
  it's important to be able to hedge yourself.
• 38:53
  All right,
• 38:53
  Dan,
• 38:54
  uh,
• 38:54
  thank you so much for joining me.
• 38:55
  I can follow Dan,
• 38:56
  of course,
• 38:56
  on Quickstart the podcast,
• 38:58
  uh,
• 38:58
  and on social media as well.
• 39:00
  We'll have you come back,
• 39:01
  of course,
• 39:02
  Dan,
• 39:02
  thanks so much for,
• 39:02
  uh,
• 39:03
  taking the time to come on.
• 39:04
  And,
• 39:04
  uh,
• 39:04
  we will be back in just a moment.
• 39:07
  OK,
• 39:07
  uh,
• 39:07
  as we were talking about that,
• 39:08
  you should know that my,
• 39:09
  uh,
• 39:10
  producer Adam,
• 39:10
  uh,
• 39:11
  wound up going under 65%
• 39:14
  on the Mandalorian Rotten Tomatoes score.
• 39:16
  He said the movie's going to suck.
• 39:18
  Uh,
• 39:19
  so,
• 39:19
  and sadly,
• 39:20
  very soon,
• 39:21
  he will,
• 39:21
  uh,
• 39:21
  be at a homeless shelter.
• 39:23
  Uh,
• 39:23
  this is what happens every time you get on one of
• 39:25
  these apps and all of a sudden you're Mandalorian markets,
• 39:28
  the next thing you know,
• 39:29
  you got a variable rate loan
• 39:31
  and
• 39:32
  And you've lost your job at Outback Steakhouse,
• 39:34
  which is honestly a much better job than he has currently
• 39:37
  on this particular show.
• 39:38
  So,
• 39:38
  anyway,
• 39:39
  uh,
• 39:39
  so I want to,
• 39:40
  uh,
• 39:40
  end this,
• 39:40
  and I,
• 39:40
  I'd like to do this from time to time.
• 39:42
  Uh,
• 39:43
  give you some kind of offbeat thing that I'm thinking about
• 39:46
  in these markets,
• 39:47
  trying to find these little nuggets,
• 39:49
  the little,
• 39:49
  little,
• 39:50
  uh,
• 39:50
  nuggets of gold,
• 39:51
  uh,
• 39:51
  out there,
• 39:52
  uh,
• 39:52
  in the,
• 39:52
  in the world.
• 39:53
  And so,
• 39:55
  my kind of working title on this,
• 39:56
  and maybe this is just what we'll go with,
• 39:57
  which is,
• 39:58
  And
• 39:59
  here's one I kind of like.
• 40:00
  I'm not telling you I'm locking in my financial future on this thing.
• 40:03
  It's just one I'm kind of like,
• 40:04
  I'm kind of interested.
• 40:05
  I'm kind of following.
• 40:06
  I think there might be some value there,
• 40:08
  a little bit of interest.
• 40:09
  And this one is particular for you if you happen to be maybe a Trump supporter,
• 40:14
  you happen to be someone who is,
• 40:15
  uh,
• 40:15
  more of a fan.
• 40:16
  Of Trump because I,
• 40:17
  this is more just to torture
• 40:19
  your,
• 40:19
  your liberal friends than anything else.
• 40:21
  But this is the market.
• 40:22
  Will Gillaine Maxwell be released from government custody?
• 40:26
  Now,
• 40:27
  Donald Trump does a lot of unpredictable things,
• 40:29
  OK?
• 40:30
  I know it's a show that's called Predictable and,
• 40:31
  and judging sometimes Donald Trump's,
• 40:33
  uh,
• 40:34
  uh,
• 40:34
  whims here and there are difficult.
• 40:36
  We can all understand that.
• 40:39
  But walk me through the thought process
• 40:42
  where he releases Gillaine Maxwell from prison.
• 40:46
  I can't even imagine a scenario where this would occur.
• 40:49
  And,
• 40:49
  you know,
• 40:50
  the thing is,
• 40:50
  the reason it's right now at,
• 40:52
  uh,
• 40:52
  what is it 13,
• 40:54
  or 13%.
• 40:55
  Will he release,
• 40:56
  uh,
• 40:57
  this year?
• 40:57
  My position on this would be no.
• 40:59
  By the way,
• 40:59
  he's not going to release Gillaine Maxwell.
• 41:01
  Of all things.
• 41:03
  He's,
• 41:03
  he's already had to deal with the nightmare of the Epstein File stuff.
• 41:07
  Uh,
• 41:07
  and so I don't think there's any chance he would do this.
• 41:09
  If he did it,
• 41:10
  if there,
• 41:10
  if there,
• 41:11
  if he were to do it,
• 41:12
  the only thing it would do is make him look more guilty.
• 41:15
  If he was giving a pardon
• 41:17
  to Delaine Maxwell,
• 41:19
  it would make him look much more guilty
• 41:21
  than he is.
• 41:22
  Now,
• 41:23
  the other thing,
• 41:24
  what's what's interesting about this is,
• 41:25
  obviously no political.
• 41:28
  Mind would say,
• 41:29
  yeah,
• 41:29
  release her,
• 41:30
  this will do,
• 41:30
  this will do your your presidency good,
• 41:33
  like,
• 41:33
  there's no upside to this whatsoever.
• 41:35
  It would be a horrible decision if you were to do it.
• 41:38
  Um,
• 41:39
  but the funny thing about this,
• 41:40
  the reason why this isn't 1 or 2%
• 41:43
  a chance,
• 41:44
  uh,
• 41:44
  yeah,
• 41:44
  I mean,
• 41:44
  sure,
• 41:45
  there's a little bit of Trump unpredictability.
• 41:46
  I get that.
• 41:47
  But really the reason is,
• 41:48
  is because
• 41:49
  all the most annoying people on TikTok and on,
• 41:53
  uh,
• 41:53
  uh,
• 41:53
  I shouldn't even say Twitter,
• 41:55
  Blue sky,
• 41:56
  all those people who think Donald Trump
• 41:58
  actually was at Epstein Island every weekend.
• 42:01
  And there's gonna,
• 42:02
  all the evidence is about to come out,
• 42:04
  and it's right around the corner and at any moment,
• 42:06
  all those people,
• 42:07
  those are the people in the 13% saying that he's going to release them.
• 42:11
  So you're taking their money
• 42:13
  with this market.
• 42:14
  Now,
• 42:14
  it's only 13%,
• 42:15
  although,
• 42:16
  what are we in May?
• 42:17
  Uh,
• 42:17
  13% in 7 months.
• 42:19
  That's certainly not a bad take-home.
• 42:21
  Uh,
• 42:21
  think about your checking account.
• 42:22
  It's giving you probably 0.3%.
• 42:24
  So 13% in seven months,
• 42:26
  not bad.
• 42:27
  If he does this,
• 42:28
  it's the most insane thing in the world.
• 42:30
  It's not impossible,
• 42:33
  but I gotta say,
• 42:34
  it's one I kind of like.
• 42:35
  Will Gillaine Maxwell be released from government custody?
• 42:38
  I'm going to take the position of
• 42:39
  no,
• 42:40
  and
• 42:41
  if it happens,
• 42:42
  my producer will make sure he pulls this video up to remind you,
• 42:45
  that's the side I was on.
• 42:46
  OK,
• 42:46
  that's it for Predictable today.
• 42:48
  Go to predictableshow.com,
• 42:49
  check out the program there,
• 42:51
  and also check out
• 42:52
  the,
• 42:53
  uh,
• 42:54
  the written pieces that we have.
• 42:55
  We've got some more coming.
• 42:56
  Maybe I'll write one up on Gillaine Maxwell,
• 42:57
  who knows?
• 42:58
  Uh,
• 42:58
  we've got that coming up as well,
• 43:00
  and,
• 43:00
  uh,
• 43:01
  follow the show on YouTube and on podcasts.
• 43:03
  As well as Stu and Dave Do America,
• 43:05
  that's available on Blaze TV.
• 43:06
  It's also available on YouTube TV
• 43:09
  or YouTube.com/Su and DaveoAmerica or I don't know,
• 43:13
  look for it.
• 43:13
  You'll find it.
• 43:14
  Just search for Stu and Dave Do America there and on the podcast as well.
• 43:17
  We will see you with more
• 43:18
  predictable
• 43:19
  tomorrow.