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Best Bets NFL Week 7 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five.
0:13
Speaker 2: We are part of the Action Network.
0:15
Speaker 1: I am Chadmilman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
0:19
Speaker 1: Today is our week seven Thursday NFL episode. This is
0:23
Speaker 1: the episode where we get feedback from the wise guys
0:26
Speaker 1: who listen to the show. We make our Survivor pick,
0:29
Speaker 1: build our moneyline, Underdog, Underdog Round Robin, We give out
0:34
Speaker 1: our Foxhole bet, our Big Balls bet of the week,
0:37
Speaker 1: and we narrow down our picks for the free to
0:39
Speaker 1: play Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick
0:42
Speaker 1: Them contest. As our old pal Colin Cowhard likes to say,
0:46
Speaker 1: there's a sea of money.
0:47
Speaker 3: Out there, because there's a sea of money out there.
0:49
Speaker 1: If you want to follow along with our official bets,
0:51
Speaker 1: you can check them out on the contest website Favorites
0:54
Speaker 1: dot Actionnetwork dot com when we lock them in before
0:59
Speaker 1: kickoff on Sunday, and if you prefer using the award
1:02
Speaker 1: winning Action app, you can also track all of thats
1:05
Speaker 1: Simon and I lock in by following two accounts, the
1:08
Speaker 1: Phase five and the Favorites Podcast. Now, let's bring in
1:12
Speaker 1: my co host, my companion Mike and Padre and my
1:14
Speaker 1: BFF professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, swim in one's removing brother.
1:23
Speaker 1: Opinions are changing. What are we going to do this week?
1:28
Speaker 3: Hello hot Chad. Yeah, I'm exciting for this week. It
1:30
Speaker 3: feels like we're going to get some some weather games.
1:32
Speaker 3: It's starting to really feel like fall football weather. None
1:36
Speaker 3: none of the sunshine and seventy degree weather, some cold, rainy,
1:40
Speaker 3: wet games up in the Northeast. So yeah, this week,
1:43
Speaker 3: I wanted to come and heavy on the overs after
1:45
Speaker 3: that big underwek but looks like it might be another
1:48
Speaker 3: nice week for the pros. Bet these unders.
1:49
Speaker 1: Huh, we will see as a reminder of the Favorites.
1:52
Speaker 1: Podcast is presented by Bet three six five. Bet three
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Speaker 1: six five doesn't do ordinary It belie is that every
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Speaker 1: sport should be epic every touchdown, every game, every point,
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Speaker 1: three hundred and sixty five dollars and bonus bets when
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Speaker 1: twenty one or older and present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio,
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Speaker 1: off in Iowa. Terms and conditions and restrictions apply. Here
2:40
Speaker 1: we go, my brother Simon, Week seven is approaching. We're
2:44
Speaker 1: seeing opportunities all over the board. Let's not delete elliot.
2:47
Speaker 2: It's time for sharp calls.
2:53
Speaker 3: Hello, who's there? I'm talking Rain.
2:56
Speaker 2: Rain telephone range. Somebody say it man.
3:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, this week, I would say not shocking to anyone.
3:05
Speaker 3: There's a lot of home dogs, and that's really where
3:07
Speaker 3: the pros are kind of taking their positions, or these
3:09
Speaker 3: home dogs that were under those two and a half
3:11
Speaker 3: points right. We joked earlier in the week how important
3:16
Speaker 3: that number two is, and we said, grabbed the Eagles
3:19
Speaker 3: at one and a half right now, it's gonna move up.
3:21
Speaker 3: The pros came in. You can see in our app
3:24
Speaker 3: it's a huge discrepacy. There's a lot of tickets on Miami,
3:26
Speaker 3: but all the money is on the Eagles, So it's
3:29
Speaker 3: like you knew the Pros are gonna come in. They
3:31
Speaker 3: have the numbers moved. Well, bet if we talked about it,
3:35
Speaker 3: I was I was hoping for the one and a
3:36
Speaker 3: half all week that that's such a good number to
3:39
Speaker 3: have in that game. But I'm not terrified at two
3:41
Speaker 3: and a half. If that's what we have to take
3:42
Speaker 3: in the contest, I would still do it. But obviously
3:45
Speaker 3: we talk all the time. I mean, how many times
3:47
Speaker 3: if this number falling on two this year it keeps happening,
3:49
Speaker 3: The number keeps falling on two, So not ideal, not
3:53
Speaker 3: ideal for me and Chad. I was hoping this number
3:57
Speaker 3: wouldn't have moved so much. But I think the weather
4:00
Speaker 3: and it's supposed to be forty degrees and wet on
4:03
Speaker 3: Thursday on Sunday night, I should say in Philadelphia, so
4:06
Speaker 3: that could be a reason numbers moved. But if you know,
4:09
Speaker 3: if the Eagles have injuries, if Lane Johnson's out, Honestly,
4:12
Speaker 3: like we talked all the time about positional value, this
4:15
Speaker 3: could move a whole half a point, full point. If
4:17
Speaker 3: Lane Johnson's out, the Eagles are I believe ten and
4:20
Speaker 3: twenty two straight up with Lane Johnson in the lineup
4:23
Speaker 3: when he's not so clearly a big deal. I Flane's
4:26
Speaker 3: not playing, but you know, looking at looking at that game,
4:31
Speaker 3: no shocking there. The pros came out, So we'll break
4:33
Speaker 3: that one down more a little a little surprising. Uh
4:38
Speaker 3: they like Atlanta. I me and you really didn't talk
4:40
Speaker 3: about that one. I really don't have to read a
4:42
Speaker 3: great read on that game.
4:43
Speaker 1: We had we had to read on this and we
4:44
Speaker 1: were going to talk about it Atlanta. We liked Atlanta,
4:48
Speaker 1: but we were, yeah, get to three and it's a
4:50
Speaker 1: two and a half, And.
4:52
Speaker 3: Like, I've been talking to guys and like, I like it,
4:54
Speaker 3: but I just haven't betted because like you said, I've
4:55
Speaker 3: been waiting for the three, so I have no money
4:57
Speaker 3: invested in it. But I know some really why guys
5:00
Speaker 3: who love Atlanta in the spot and I could just
5:03
Speaker 3: it's just hard for me to get there. Like I
5:04
Speaker 3: just I don't know what they're back in here.
5:07
Speaker 1: But well, listen, we'll get to that one because there's
5:10
Speaker 1: also uh uh, there's a luck factor that I.
5:15
Speaker 2: Want to discuss with that game.
5:16
Speaker 1: You know, I love the luck rankings and we've got
5:18
Speaker 1: some late breaking luck data on that game.
5:22
Speaker 3: And then I know a really smart group chat that
5:23
Speaker 3: actually came in on the Chiefs. So we like the Chargers. Yeah,
5:27
Speaker 3: I know some wise guys that are on this Chiefs here,
5:31
Speaker 3: I think they're drinking the same cool aid down drinking
5:33
Speaker 3: itch is. You're not really backing so much the Chiefs offense.
5:36
Speaker 3: You're back in the defense. Like that defense even talked
5:39
Speaker 3: since week one, they've been one of the best in football.
5:42
Speaker 3: I've had them great at my number two defense. Now
5:44
Speaker 3: they're at my number four defense. Still I'm great at
5:47
Speaker 3: them as a top five defense, which is crazy to
5:49
Speaker 3: think when you think of all the money they've allocated
5:51
Speaker 3: towards Kelsey, towards Mahomes. Still Spags has that defense playing
5:57
Speaker 3: at such a high level. So another game off the breakdown,
6:01
Speaker 3: maybe maybe we still will have the Chargers in. But
6:04
Speaker 3: does give me a little bit of pause where this
6:07
Speaker 3: group is really smart. They're taking a position me and
6:10
Speaker 3: you already have a position at six. You know that's
6:13
Speaker 3: a key number at six, Like we're not getting six
6:16
Speaker 3: in the contest right now. I look this morning, it's
6:18
Speaker 3: five and a half. So that's defining one will break
6:20
Speaker 3: down and then really quick home dogs like the Boys
6:23
Speaker 3: love Colts. The boys love the Bears. The boys love
6:28
Speaker 3: this Ravens team. I know they're not a dog, but
6:32
Speaker 3: the Ravens. Me and Chad were all over that Sunday
6:34
Speaker 3: night was open at minus two and a half. Now
6:37
Speaker 3: it's up to minus three. That was Tuesday, it was
6:39
Speaker 3: up to minus three. It's been sitting in minus three
6:41
Speaker 3: all week. I would say every runner I've talked to,
6:46
Speaker 3: every bookmaker I've talked to this week, it's all lines
6:50
Speaker 3: of money. It's all lines of money. Line, it's all
6:52
Speaker 3: lines on the spread. So that's another game where it's
6:56
Speaker 3: like me, you already like the Ravens now, knowing that
6:59
Speaker 3: the Ravens, the book needs the Ravens. That's a good feeling.
7:03
Speaker 3: Like if we get two and a half in the contest,
7:05
Speaker 3: no doubt or auto play, love the Ravens. So yeah,
7:10
Speaker 3: not too much shock on the sharp calls. I was
7:12
Speaker 3: shocked here about the Chief stole. I feel like I
7:15
Speaker 3: still even want to think about now, how do we
7:17
Speaker 3: get how do we get away from this? The Chargers
7:19
Speaker 3: always play this game to a field goal. It feels
7:21
Speaker 3: like we're always in this game to a field goal.
7:23
Speaker 3: But the argument is Herbert's injury is affecting him, even
7:27
Speaker 3: though it was his non throwing hand. He just looked
7:29
Speaker 3: off in that game. And my pushback against that is,
7:32
Speaker 3: isn't that we want to back Herbert after a bad game.
7:34
Speaker 3: So yeah, it wasn't just one or two guys that
7:38
Speaker 3: are like on this Chiefs team. It's multiple smart money
7:41
Speaker 3: groups coming on the Chiefs team, but people just like
7:43
Speaker 3: Menuchek coming down the Chargers. So definitely a lot of
7:46
Speaker 3: back and forth this week for Sharp Calls.
7:48
Speaker 1: Well, it's so interesting because I do feel like all
7:52
Speaker 1: the games that we sort of were thinking about the Bears,
7:55
Speaker 1: especially the Falcons that we talked about, that we're in
7:59
Speaker 1: line here. So let's dig in a little bit deeper
8:02
Speaker 1: as we start to narrow down our five. As a reminder,
8:06
Speaker 1: you can catch every episode of the Favorites live on YouTube,
8:09
Speaker 1: So for those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give
8:11
Speaker 1: us a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.
8:15
Speaker 1: We got to start narrowing down. We got to get
8:16
Speaker 1: to the foxhole, We got to get to our survival.
8:18
Speaker 1: We got to get to the.
8:19
Speaker 2: Big ball bit of the week.
8:21
Speaker 1: If I don't yell big balls with as much enthusiasm
8:25
Speaker 1: as I normally do. It's because, as people who are
8:28
Speaker 1: watching on YouTube can tell, I'm not in my normal backdrop.
8:31
Speaker 1: I'm in a hotel and so, and it's early. I'm
8:34
Speaker 1: on the West coast, so I don't want to wake
8:36
Speaker 1: up my neighbors.
8:37
Speaker 3: I mean, chat, it's five in the morning here in
8:39
Speaker 3: Hawaiian I yelled big balls all the time. I mean,
8:41
Speaker 3: what are we doing here?
8:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, but you're not always doing it on the podcast.
8:47
Speaker 1: All right, here's the games we talked about the most.
8:50
Speaker 1: I'm surprised. Let's talk about Pittsburgh and Los Angeles.
8:55
Speaker 2: I'm still all on this. You were a little squishy
8:57
Speaker 2: about it.
8:58
Speaker 3: I'm coming around though, all right, all right.
9:01
Speaker 2: Like it had to me, I don't know what you've heard.
9:03
Speaker 1: Like, our data in action is showing that the money
9:06
Speaker 1: right now is on the rams, but it hasn't moved
9:09
Speaker 1: off of three. And I will reiterate, Mike Tomlin is
9:12
Speaker 1: the most profitable coach as a dog the past twenty years.
9:17
Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin as an underdog from week five to forward,
9:22
Speaker 1: thirty seven thirty straight up on the money line. I mean, why,
9:31
Speaker 1: why is why is it not obvious that we're taking
9:33
Speaker 1: the Steelers here?
9:36
Speaker 3: I would definitely feel better about the three and a
9:38
Speaker 3: half And a lot of people said, this is a
9:39
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh home game, right, They're going to travel, they're going
9:41
Speaker 3: to show up for this is one of the biggest
9:43
Speaker 3: fan base is and loudest fan bases in football, so
9:46
Speaker 3: already know that Pittsburgh's having advantage. They're just like I
9:48
Speaker 3: feel like the Cowboys had an advantage against the Chargers like
9:51
Speaker 3: that when you have fans that travel and they're loud
9:53
Speaker 3: and raucous and those those games and they're in LA,
9:56
Speaker 3: it feels like that helps those teams, those away teams,
9:58
Speaker 3: And if it was three and a half chat, I
10:01
Speaker 3: definitely would feel more comfortable. The fact that's just sitting
10:03
Speaker 3: at three. It's like, yeah, I'm betting it, but it's
10:06
Speaker 3: like it's not the best the best value. Could easily
10:10
Speaker 3: see this game being a push, like no one will
10:12
Speaker 3: be shocked if this game comes down to a field goal.
10:14
Speaker 3: But it feels like your read is right where it's
10:17
Speaker 3: like I was probably buying a little too high on
10:20
Speaker 3: this Rams team, right, It's like I'm I'm not that
10:23
Speaker 3: I'm buy at their peak, but the public is caught
10:25
Speaker 3: up to it, Like after last week they tried to
10:27
Speaker 3: fading with Arizona, they tried taking that big dog at
10:30
Speaker 3: seven points, and the Rams were never really in doubt
10:33
Speaker 3: in that game. And this game here we saw it
10:36
Speaker 3: Sunday night. It opened at three, went up to three
10:38
Speaker 3: and a half, and then obviously professional money came in.
10:41
Speaker 3: It's just been at three now all week. So yeah,
10:44
Speaker 3: it's it was one of your early reads. It was
10:47
Speaker 3: tough for me to get there, like I'm I'm getting
10:49
Speaker 3: there now, but I feel much more comfortable for us
10:52
Speaker 3: three and a half in contest, if this was minus
10:54
Speaker 3: two in it or plus two and a half, you
10:56
Speaker 3: can't convince me to put this in chat because I
10:58
Speaker 3: got this right at three. So the only way this
11:00
Speaker 3: makes it in for us if it's three and a half,
11:02
Speaker 3: it's two and a half. It's not a play for me.
11:05
Speaker 1: But for those listening and those watching live on YouTube,
11:08
Speaker 1: liking and subscribing at three, it's worth a bet. I
11:14
Speaker 1: bet at plus three. Have you played Pittsburgh at plus three?
11:18
Speaker 3: No?
11:19
Speaker 2: No, you haven't.
11:20
Speaker 3: No, it's not. I'm just waiting for the three and
11:22
Speaker 3: a half and if it doesn't get there, I will
11:24
Speaker 3: I'll throw a little one the three. But I got
11:26
Speaker 3: no value. I make the line three the numbers three.
11:28
Speaker 3: It's you know, to me, this is another game where
11:32
Speaker 3: like you already said it, like I'll throw this in
11:34
Speaker 3: my money line around Robin, but putting a big bet
11:37
Speaker 3: on the three not likely for me. And oh yeah,
11:40
Speaker 3: I keep forgetting to do this, Chad. People keep asking
11:43
Speaker 3: about our money line around Robin. Just really quick, how
11:45
Speaker 3: we do it very simple. You hold your hand up
11:49
Speaker 3: in a five, so we do it two times, which
11:51
Speaker 3: means one two, one three, one four one five. You
11:56
Speaker 3: put that down. One two three two four two five
12:00
Speaker 3: you put that down. So that's how I do my
12:02
Speaker 3: money line around Robbins. People do it three times, they
12:05
Speaker 3: do four times. That's like, that's insane. You're gonna get
12:08
Speaker 3: crazy odds you bet that way. I just do it
12:10
Speaker 3: by times too, So I have a lot of people
12:13
Speaker 3: ask about that. I keep forgetting to bring it up.
12:15
Speaker 3: We do it five by two, so everyone that's asking
12:18
Speaker 3: about that, we take it is the lower the lowest odds,
12:22
Speaker 3: but it's the most likely to hit for you. Where
12:24
Speaker 3: it's if you go for two for three, at least
12:26
Speaker 3: you're getting paid out something. Where if you're doing it
12:28
Speaker 3: three times, you go two for three, you basically win
12:31
Speaker 3: nothing like you're you're taking a full on l there.
12:34
Speaker 3: So yeah, for a money line around Robins, That's why
12:36
Speaker 3: me try to try to go these big dogs, because
12:39
Speaker 3: even if you go two for three, sometimes you'll still
12:41
Speaker 3: make a profit depending on what dogs hit. Like last
12:43
Speaker 3: week with Cleveland, if you had that in by chance,
12:46
Speaker 3: I know I took it out, But if you had
12:47
Speaker 3: that in there with the Jets, that's like eleven o one,
12:50
Speaker 3: twelve to one payout. So those are the kind of
12:52
Speaker 3: dogs we're looking for. And those money line around Robins.
12:56
Speaker 2: All right, well let's see what we're gonna get. I
12:57
Speaker 2: mean a line.
12:58
Speaker 1: It's interesting the way they do this in the contest.
13:00
Speaker 1: The lines, you know, you never know if you're going
13:02
Speaker 1: to get the two and a half or the three
13:04
Speaker 1: and a half because they're not doing hull numbers. So
13:06
Speaker 1: with the Steelers, that'll be interesting. I continue to be
13:09
Speaker 1: a Mike Tomblin backer and there's nothing you can do
13:12
Speaker 1: to get me off that. So I've bet the three
13:16
Speaker 1: regardless of whether it gets to three and a half.
13:18
Speaker 1: And you know what I'm going to do if it
13:19
Speaker 1: gets three and a half, I'll bet a little more,
13:22
Speaker 1: because that's what you do. That's what you do when
13:24
Speaker 1: you're a professional. If you like a game, you get
13:27
Speaker 1: a better number, you bet a little more. And by
13:29
Speaker 1: the way, there might be places where I can still
13:31
Speaker 1: get a three, and I can buy out of the
13:33
Speaker 1: three and just bet the three and a half. It's
13:35
Speaker 1: called money management, it's called strategy. That's what we're trying
13:38
Speaker 1: to exercise and practice here. All right, let's talk about
13:41
Speaker 1: the charters. It's so interesting to me that you're hearing
13:45
Speaker 1: this because the notes that I was making last night
13:47
Speaker 1: for the podcast that there is the on the field element.
13:56
Speaker 1: You mentioned, you know, justin Herbert and his injury. You
13:59
Speaker 1: mentioned sort of the inability of the Chargers to be
14:02
Speaker 1: consistent in their decision making and make the right decisions
14:05
Speaker 1: in the right spots because their coaching is so bad.
14:08
Speaker 1: You mention how good the defense has been playing. And
14:12
Speaker 1: then there's sort of the spot, right, you want to
14:16
Speaker 1: fade the public team that's the Chiefs. You want to
14:20
Speaker 1: play the team coming off a bad prime time loft
14:22
Speaker 1: whist that's the Chargers. You want to in this spot,
14:27
Speaker 1: you want to play the division underdog, right, because as
14:31
Speaker 1: we said the other we said on Tuesday dogs and
14:35
Speaker 1: division games are sixty games above five hundred against the
14:39
Speaker 1: spread the last decade, sixty games above five hundred against
14:44
Speaker 1: the spread. And you want to fade the home teams
14:49
Speaker 1: which are forty six percent against the spread since twenty fifteen,
14:52
Speaker 1: and when that home division is a favorite forty four
14:55
Speaker 1: point seven percent against the spread. So then we've got
14:59
Speaker 1: some on field stuff, We've got some spot stuff, and
15:02
Speaker 1: then we've got very specific Patrick Mahomes stuff, right, which
15:09
Speaker 1: is Patrick Mahomes when he is a favorite of more
15:12
Speaker 1: than three and a half points, just it is not
15:15
Speaker 1: as good at covering the spread. So it seems like
15:19
Speaker 1: the wise guys are playing the field element of this
15:22
Speaker 1: more than they're playing the spot and the precedent of
15:25
Speaker 1: the charters.
15:27
Speaker 3: Yeah, and just not everyone's trend better. Some guys they
15:29
Speaker 3: use trends of the tool, but it's not then it'll
15:31
Speaker 3: be all on field with that. I guess what they're
15:34
Speaker 3: seeing is just a great defense, and me and you
15:38
Speaker 3: on the other side are seeing a Chiefs team that's
15:40
Speaker 3: struggling offensively. I mean that red zone. Their red zone
15:44
Speaker 3: woes are like the Eagles red zone woes. It's these
15:46
Speaker 3: like really incredibly high powered offense. They got no problem
15:49
Speaker 3: driving up and down the field. But these teams getting
15:52
Speaker 3: their red zones and they're just getting shut down. And
15:55
Speaker 3: it feels like the whole NFL has taken that Belichick
15:58
Speaker 3: style of defense, which he did feels like twenty years ago.
16:01
Speaker 3: And you can say he stole the Tampa two from
16:04
Speaker 3: the Bucks and that style of defense, but he is
16:07
Speaker 3: the one that really brought it to the focus of
16:09
Speaker 3: all these teams are attacking downfield and this new style
16:12
Speaker 3: of just let them kill you by a million cuts,
16:14
Speaker 3: don't let them take the big shots, make them drive
16:17
Speaker 3: all the way down the field, use all the clock up,
16:19
Speaker 3: get to the red zone, get the stop. I mean,
16:22
Speaker 3: if you're trading three for sevens. We talk all the time,
16:24
Speaker 3: that's that's how teams lose. And this Chiefs team, they've
16:27
Speaker 3: had those woes. Chargers teams no different. I mean, this
16:31
Speaker 3: this team that not only do they struggle in the
16:33
Speaker 3: red zone, they're doing those fourth down places Jets. So
16:36
Speaker 3: we know the deal here we're when we're back in
16:38
Speaker 3: this Chargers team, it's gonna be uncomfortable the whole way.
16:41
Speaker 3: But I'm right there with you, like I just I
16:43
Speaker 3: don't care what these guys are saying to me. I'm
16:45
Speaker 3: just I'm going to be on the Chargers this week.
16:47
Speaker 3: It's a big number in a divisional game. The Chargers
16:49
Speaker 3: are going to be more desperate. They need this one badly,
16:53
Speaker 3: And the only fear is the Herbert stuff. Like he did.
16:57
Speaker 3: I totally agree with everything these guys are saying. He
16:59
Speaker 3: did not look right. And say what you want about
17:03
Speaker 3: the Cowboys. They are incredibly talented. It wasn't really like
17:07
Speaker 3: their defense dominated right, Like we didn't hear Parsons dominate.
17:11
Speaker 1: They did dominate the run game, like they really were
17:14
Speaker 1: impressive with the way they stopped Eckler. But Herbert missed
17:20
Speaker 1: so many throws to that game in the passing game.
17:24
Speaker 3: That's what I mean. Like Parsons is a game record.
17:27
Speaker 3: I didn't hear his name until that final drive where
17:29
Speaker 3: he had the sack and the pressure that really ended
17:31
Speaker 3: the game. So there's different things you can do is
17:35
Speaker 3: scheme it up, but yeah, it's it is a spot
17:39
Speaker 3: where it's like, how do we not take the Chargers here?
17:43
Speaker 3: And here's a little stat from Evan that I love.
17:45
Speaker 3: They just put in our chat. Chargers are fifth in
17:48
Speaker 3: red zone percentage that the Chiefs are seventeenth in red
17:51
Speaker 3: zone efficiency. So clearly the Chiefs have struggled in the
17:54
Speaker 3: red zone. Being seventeenth in the league, you just don't
17:56
Speaker 3: expect to see that where Chargers aren't as bad. Obviously
17:59
Speaker 3: they're only fifth. So yeah, Chad, it's just I'm telling
18:03
Speaker 3: you what one of things I'm worried about here is
18:05
Speaker 3: if Herbert is really injured and something else is happening,
18:08
Speaker 3: it's not just that opposite hand that's injured. Something else
18:11
Speaker 3: is wrong with them. But this line doesn't make sense
18:14
Speaker 3: to me. I don't get why it's so high. Uh,
18:17
Speaker 3: I'm trying it to let it scare it off, scaring
18:19
Speaker 3: me off, but I do have it as two points
18:21
Speaker 3: of value. I make this ligne minus three and a
18:22
Speaker 3: half to the Chiefs, So it's like tons of value
18:27
Speaker 3: right now, my according to my model, and me mentally,
18:30
Speaker 3: I feel like this is a great line. So yeah, Chad,
18:33
Speaker 3: maybe maybe the Pros are trying to help us out
18:34
Speaker 3: and warn us off this one, but I mean, you're
18:37
Speaker 3: gonna hold hands, We're gonna walk right into it. We
18:39
Speaker 3: just we can't avoid this one. It's such a big number,
18:42
Speaker 3: and what feels like the Chargers should just be in
18:45
Speaker 3: this game like they're They're all fence moves the ball
18:49
Speaker 3: up and down the field. And I know how good
18:51
Speaker 3: this Chiefs team is. But every time these two teams
18:53
Speaker 3: get together, I mean, you talk talk all the time,
18:55
Speaker 3: it always feels like it comes down to a three
18:57
Speaker 3: or four points at the end of the game. That
18:59
Speaker 3: the size this game. Usually it's the Chiefs winning. So
19:03
Speaker 3: we'll take the spread. Maybe we'll throw a little on
19:05
Speaker 3: the money line. But my confidence in them winning out
19:08
Speaker 3: right not huge. But them to cover the spread, I'm
19:10
Speaker 3: feel pretty good about it. Chad, there's Chargers all.
19:12
Speaker 2: Right, Detroit at Baltimore.
19:20
Speaker 1: We like this at two and a half a lot,
19:23
Speaker 1: but I do think we're a little suspect. I'm encouraged
19:26
Speaker 1: that you said the wise guys have been coming in
19:28
Speaker 1: on the Ravens. We have to consistently believe the Lions
19:31
Speaker 1: are overvalued until we no longer believe the Lions are overvalued.
19:36
Speaker 1: We love the Ravens as a short home favorite, even
19:39
Speaker 1: though Lamar is terrible as a favorite. Even though golf
19:43
Speaker 1: is brilliant against the spread the past five years.
19:47
Speaker 2: We don't love the lines in the spot.
19:49
Speaker 1: Consistently coming off of big wins outdoors in games where
19:54
Speaker 1: the wise guys were against them, it has to crack.
19:57
Speaker 1: If they don't crack, then they probably should be the
20:00
Speaker 1: it's on favorite to win the NFC.
20:02
Speaker 3: This has got to be the fox hole fox hole
20:04
Speaker 3: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a
20:06
Speaker 3: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to
20:09
Speaker 3: a city. I'm a foxhole guy. There are so few
20:11
Speaker 3: people jumping our foxhil here with us, Chad, like the
20:14
Speaker 3: public is totally all in on this Lions team. Yes,
20:17
Speaker 3: it doesn't matter what mean you and say. We can
20:19
Speaker 3: beg him and try to convince him. Maybe they'll listen
20:22
Speaker 3: to this. Right now, we think there's gonna be bad weather.
20:25
Speaker 3: Montgomery is out, Gibbs is out, So the number one
20:28
Speaker 3: and two running backs are out for the Detroit Lions. Reynolds,
20:32
Speaker 3: the guy who came and made that incredible block last week.
20:34
Speaker 3: That another running back for Detroit. He has not practiced
20:37
Speaker 3: all week. So their identity is through the run. I mean,
20:40
Speaker 3: golf obviously picked it up last week against Tampa. That
20:43
Speaker 3: was on a clear, perfect sunny day. You're not getting
20:45
Speaker 3: that in Baltimore. And Income's Lamar in that running style offense.
20:49
Speaker 3: And yes, I agree they're trying to pass more. When
20:53
Speaker 3: it gets down to it, they just want to win.
20:55
Speaker 3: Like Lamar said that himself. If the coach needs him
20:57
Speaker 3: to run and the game plans makes it that way,
21:00
Speaker 3: he'll run the ball. And this is the perfect, perfect
21:03
Speaker 3: opportunity to run the ball against a team that you know.
21:06
Speaker 3: Say what you want about this Lions team. They are
21:09
Speaker 3: different outdoors and I get, I get the credence of
21:14
Speaker 3: last week how they played so well defensively against Tampa.
21:18
Speaker 3: Look at all the splits right now. This this Ravens team.
21:20
Speaker 3: Not only do they have a top five, top six
21:24
Speaker 3: defense and dvoa their offenses right there. So it's a
21:27
Speaker 3: team that the only fear for me is the fact
21:30
Speaker 3: that they're coming back from playing a broad chat like
21:32
Speaker 3: that's the only word, because I keep having that Evan
21:34
Speaker 3: stat pop in my head about those close games in
21:37
Speaker 3: the fourth quarter on these London teams. But even if
21:40
Speaker 3: this is minus three and a half in our contest,
21:42
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna let it scare me off like I'll
21:44
Speaker 3: bite the bullet. I'll ride it. But obviously, dream scenario
21:48
Speaker 3: chat is the minus two and a half but right
21:50
Speaker 3: now I'm almost positible. I check this one. You can
21:52
Speaker 3: get the two and a half in contest, So hopefully
21:55
Speaker 3: you guys will move the number bill we're doing this
21:56
Speaker 3: live show, and we can get the Ravens again. But
22:00
Speaker 3: we know the deal and the contest. If the line
22:02
Speaker 3: moves to whatever it is, the Ravens minus one twenty
22:05
Speaker 3: at minus three, it's gonna be three and a half,
22:07
Speaker 3: or minus one fifteen, it's gonna be three and a half.
22:09
Speaker 3: It's still at one ten. They might give us the
22:12
Speaker 3: minus two and a half. But the public is loving
22:15
Speaker 3: the Lions. All the money, everything's coming on their money line.
22:18
Speaker 3: All the money's coming on their plus three. We say
22:21
Speaker 3: it all the time, Chad. They might get away with
22:23
Speaker 3: one here. They sometimes the public does. But public dogs
22:28
Speaker 3: almost always die, almost always die. And you saw last
22:32
Speaker 3: look at Tennessee. Tennessee had a million chances to cover
22:34
Speaker 3: against the Ravens. It was there a million times, but
22:37
Speaker 3: it just never got there. And that's just a classic
22:39
Speaker 3: public dog where it's like there's a reason they're giving
22:43
Speaker 3: you all those free numbers, like they know what they're
22:45
Speaker 3: doing bumping this number up. So I am shocked to
22:48
Speaker 3: see the reverse reverse line movement, just because so much
22:52
Speaker 3: money is coming in on this Lions team and their
22:54
Speaker 3: money line, but not gonna let them make me wayver Chad.
22:58
Speaker 3: The Lions are totally overval even I think even was
23:02
Speaker 3: a brand Anderson. Someone at our own company put the
23:04
Speaker 3: Lines as the number one team the NFL right now, Like,
23:07
Speaker 3: what are we doing here? People? So good, good spot
23:11
Speaker 3: to fade one of the most hype teams of football
23:13
Speaker 3: around this Lions team. It's Baltimore. Gentlemen, The gods will
23:17
Speaker 3: not save you.
23:18
Speaker 1: Your conviction has just given me so much confidence in
23:22
Speaker 1: the bet that we made, because I was a little
23:25
Speaker 1: bit nervous about it even at the two and a half,
23:26
Speaker 1: because of how well the Lions have been.
23:28
Speaker 2: Playing and how bad the weather helps. The weather helps,
23:31
Speaker 2: for sure, the weather helps.
23:33
Speaker 1: Highest win game this week sixteen miles per hour right
23:36
Speaker 1: now projected the Washington Commanders and the Giants are fifteen.
23:41
Speaker 1: Also reminder, unders tend to hit in these high wind games.
23:48
Speaker 1: We saw it again last week. We saw it with
23:50
Speaker 1: the Bears in Minnesota. Was a high wind game. The
23:54
Speaker 1: under hit so Cleveland.
23:57
Speaker 3: Obviously, and again the win, the win mattered. You watched
24:00
Speaker 3: the data tracker on that kick. The wind shifted it
24:02
Speaker 3: almost two feet, and that's why that field goal was missed,
24:05
Speaker 3: which if you would have hit it would have lost
24:07
Speaker 3: that under So the win the winds definitely matter.
24:10
Speaker 2: Dude.
24:11
Speaker 1: Look at you looking at the data tracker moving the
24:14
Speaker 1: kick two feet. This is why you're a professional. You
24:18
Speaker 1: are looking at everything, no detail. You're the Bill Belichick,
24:23
Speaker 1: Bellichickie and BELLACHICKI and research right there. Simon Hunter, all right,
24:28
Speaker 1: this might be our big balls Green Bay at Denver.
24:31
Speaker 1: We loved it too. It's now down to one. Still
24:36
Speaker 1: Denver is a underdog. By the way, Denver. We liked
24:38
Speaker 1: it at plus two. Denver's at plus one. It's a
24:41
Speaker 1: huge pros Joe's game with the pros coming in on Denver.
24:43
Speaker 1: You didn't mention it in sharp calls, but to me,
24:47
Speaker 1: this feels big balls of the.
24:50
Speaker 3: Week and not truth is because no one's putting more
24:55
Speaker 3: than I've only to put five figures on the let
24:57
Speaker 3: alone six figures, Like this is just any When I
25:00
Speaker 3: talk to you, this is like, yeah, I bed Denver,
25:01
Speaker 3: but you know, maybe put ten k on it. Like
25:04
Speaker 3: no one, no one's going too crazy about this one
25:07
Speaker 3: because the fear is they're going to be in tank mode.
25:09
Speaker 3: They own their own first, first overall pick. You have
25:13
Speaker 3: that clip circulator of Sean Payton talking about if he
25:16
Speaker 3: had a team, he would tank for Williams at the
25:18
Speaker 3: number one kV position. And even if it's not Williams,
25:22
Speaker 3: that kid Drake from you and see like you got
25:25
Speaker 3: two studs at the top of the draft. You have
25:27
Speaker 3: a corpse of a team like they don't have. It's
25:30
Speaker 3: not a one draft fix. Like Sean knows that watching
25:33
Speaker 3: this team every day in practice, it's going to be
25:36
Speaker 3: a two to three year rebuild. So I'm all, I
25:41
Speaker 3: want to take Denver. I like Denver. It's a good
25:43
Speaker 3: number on Denver, Green Bay. We know they're not what
25:46
Speaker 3: people perceive them to be, right. They're an offense at
25:49
Speaker 3: sloppy Jordan Love, he is all within the system. If
25:52
Speaker 3: the Reid is there, he can usually make the throw,
25:56
Speaker 3: but he's not the last couple of weeks he's been
25:57
Speaker 3: missing those easy read throws and Lafour will scheme it
26:01
Speaker 3: up where he'll scheme guys open for Love and Love's
26:04
Speaker 3: just not connecting. So if that's the fear here where
26:08
Speaker 3: it's like this is the perfect spot to get right
26:11
Speaker 3: for Jordan Love, like the guys are going to be
26:13
Speaker 3: open Denver's defense. You watch them on film, They're disorganized,
26:16
Speaker 3: they're sloppy, they're terrible attackling. Like, I mean, we broke
26:20
Speaker 3: down film month a month ago about how horrible attacking
26:22
Speaker 3: tackling is. It's gotten no better if you go through
26:25
Speaker 3: all their games or tackling, it's still incredibly sloppy. So
26:30
Speaker 3: that's the fear of Chad where it's like if me,
26:32
Speaker 3: you were just playing the numbers and blind resume, we
26:35
Speaker 3: would happily like close your eyes, hold your nose, you
26:37
Speaker 3: take Denver here. But just looking at paper and on
26:40
Speaker 3: the trends, I mean even reading some of Evans trends.
26:42
Speaker 3: A lot of these trends favor green Bay, surprisingly, like
26:46
Speaker 3: there are a couple of things at point to you
26:48
Speaker 3: actually want to take green Bay and these trends, but
26:52
Speaker 3: I just hate this game, like I want to take Denver,
26:54
Speaker 3: but oh man, like easily me and you both can
26:58
Speaker 3: see them easily losing on ite Go at the end
27:00
Speaker 3: of this game, like they're just a loser team that
27:02
Speaker 3: doesn't know how to win. So the numbers that did
27:05
Speaker 3: everything you said, buy and low it's all there on Denver.
27:08
Speaker 3: It's just it's just hard for me to stomach right now.
27:10
Speaker 3: Them is one of our five.
27:12
Speaker 2: I'm a loser baby.
27:14
Speaker 1: So this doesn't feel like I was hesitant to wake
27:20
Speaker 1: my hotel neighbors with a full throated big balls commitment
27:25
Speaker 1: because I wasn't feeling like we were in sync on that.
27:31
Speaker 3: I know, I know what our big balls is. You
27:32
Speaker 3: know what our big balls is.
27:34
Speaker 1: I don't, which is why i'm sort of I mean,
27:37
Speaker 1: I feel like there's not that many games that you
27:40
Speaker 1: and I on Tuesday really zeroed in on for today,
27:45
Speaker 1: so it can only be one other game. And the
27:48
Speaker 1: game that we're talking about to me doesn't feel big
27:52
Speaker 1: balls zy. It feels like the complete right side. So
27:57
Speaker 1: maybe that's what we're talking about, and move us right
28:00
Speaker 1: into it, which is the Philadelphia Eagles at minus two
28:05
Speaker 1: and a half. This was, as Simon says, at one
28:08
Speaker 1: and a half. The pros have been piling on this number,
28:13
Speaker 1: moving it up. So I don't see why how this
28:16
Speaker 1: could be our big balls. It feels like the right bet.
28:20
Speaker 3: Yeah, because it's not the big balls. It's take zero
28:22
Speaker 3: balls to better. Okay.
28:24
Speaker 1: Then then then then I think I know what it is.
28:27
Speaker 1: And again, like you and I talk about this, there's
28:30
Speaker 1: a couple other games that we were interested in that
28:35
Speaker 1: we were waiting on. So one of those games is
28:38
Speaker 1: going to be our big balls. I think I know
28:40
Speaker 1: what it is, not okay now, okay.
28:46
Speaker 3: Yeah, Eagles, Like we said that ideal that it's moved
28:49
Speaker 3: so much, but no real fear here, Like this Eagles
28:53
Speaker 3: team feels like they're cover this number, they're gonna get
28:55
Speaker 3: blown out, Like there's no feels like going between with
28:59
Speaker 3: the Miami team, and you know, I already love this number.
29:05
Speaker 3: The only real fear, which I said on Tuesday or
29:07
Speaker 3: maybe a Sunday show, is the health of the Eagles.
29:09
Speaker 3: It's like, okay, if if slays out again, if Carter
29:12
Speaker 3: was out, and then if you throw on top of
29:14
Speaker 3: that that Smith might be on lane, Johnson's out. Yeah,
29:18
Speaker 3: I probably would buy out of my position if I could,
29:20
Speaker 3: and maybe just just watch this game as a fan.
29:22
Speaker 3: But it looks like those guys are all going to
29:25
Speaker 3: be back. And you've seen the number kind of move
29:26
Speaker 3: against Miami. And then we got the update yesterday or
29:30
Speaker 3: maybe the you know, depends when you got the update,
29:33
Speaker 3: but there's supposed to be weather now it's supposally be
29:35
Speaker 3: in the forties, supposed to be cold, windy and wet
29:37
Speaker 3: Sunday night. Yes, Miami is probably the best running team
29:43
Speaker 3: we've ever seen right to start the year. They're incredible
29:45
Speaker 3: running the ball, but that all goes through their passing game.
29:49
Speaker 3: Like they don't get the five six man boxes, which
29:52
Speaker 3: you just never seen a football unless Tyreek Hill and
29:56
Speaker 3: Wada are burning the guys downfield. And if you take
29:58
Speaker 3: away that ability to put the ball downfield, and the
30:01
Speaker 3: Eagles can bring eight guys down to the box, nine
30:04
Speaker 3: guys down into the box, that will easily take away
30:08
Speaker 3: the shrun game. And you saw in that Bill's game.
30:10
Speaker 3: We talk all the time about that Bill's game. Their
30:12
Speaker 3: front four got pressure on to it. They took away
30:15
Speaker 3: their run. They forced them to be one dimensional, and
30:17
Speaker 3: that's what just destroyed that Miami team. So everyone can
30:21
Speaker 3: go through the records Miami incredible offense, but what do
30:26
Speaker 3: they do. They beat up on bad teams, so shocking
30:28
Speaker 3: and knowing that they absolutely blew out the Giants and
30:34
Speaker 3: you know they blew out Detroit. But uh yeah, it's
30:38
Speaker 3: it's a good it's a good spot to back an
30:40
Speaker 3: Eagles team in a bounce back spot against the Miami
30:42
Speaker 3: team that you know, they're just like the Lions. They're
30:45
Speaker 3: the new toy, They're the all hype team. Most people
30:48
Speaker 3: are gonna have them as a number one or two
30:49
Speaker 3: teams this week power ranking wise, And it's just an
30:52
Speaker 3: overreaction to a team that, yes, they have an incredible offense,
30:56
Speaker 3: they still have a lot of holes and that defense
30:58
Speaker 3: has a ton of holes. And if the Eagles can
30:59
Speaker 3: get back to what they do so well, which is
31:02
Speaker 3: running the ball, especially in this kind of weather, how
31:05
Speaker 3: do you not love the Eagles in a bounce back
31:06
Speaker 3: spot here, especially at home, in a game that they need,
31:10
Speaker 3: like they need this win. They have it a gauntlet
31:12
Speaker 3: coming up, like they have the Cowboys. They got the Bills,
31:15
Speaker 3: they got the Chiefs. It's just a really rough road
31:17
Speaker 3: up ahead. So I'm not going to overreact to that
31:20
Speaker 3: Jets game chat. We talk all the time the Chiefs.
31:22
Speaker 3: Mahomes struggled against the Jets, huge bounce back game and
31:26
Speaker 3: win the following game the Bills. Josh Allen really struggled
31:29
Speaker 3: against this team. The Jets Week one destroyed the Raiders
31:33
Speaker 3: of following the week, like we've seen that where the
31:35
Speaker 3: Jets just have a really good defense and scheme like
31:38
Speaker 3: they're one of the best scheme teams of football right now,
31:40
Speaker 3: where I think they have the second least amount of
31:43
Speaker 3: points giving up in the second half, some of the
31:45
Speaker 3: best second half adjustments in all football. The Jets team.
31:48
Speaker 3: You cannot say that about Miami. Like Miami their adjustments
31:51
Speaker 3: is we just score more than you, and I don't
31:53
Speaker 3: think they're going to get away with that here in
31:54
Speaker 3: this Eagles game. So would still put them in our
31:57
Speaker 3: contest a two and a half check.
32:00
Speaker 1: By the way, I think you said the Dolphins beat Detroit.
32:03
Speaker 1: I think you'm at Denver and opponents are combined nine
32:08
Speaker 1: and twenty five straight up this season Dolphins opponents. So
32:12
Speaker 1: they're winning dominant ways, they're winning in historical ways. Most
32:15
Speaker 1: points per game in NFL history, the nineteen fifty Rams
32:20
Speaker 1: thirty eight point eight, the twenty thirteen Broncos thirty seven
32:25
Speaker 1: point nine, twenty twenty three Dolphins thirty seven point two.
32:30
Speaker 1: Everything you said is right. The other thing that's interesting
32:34
Speaker 1: is that Jalen Hurts not very good against pressure. The
32:40
Speaker 1: Dolphins cannot bring pressure, so there's another sort of advantage
32:49
Speaker 1: for the Eagles in addition to all the things that
32:51
Speaker 1: we just said, and look about that Jets game. We
32:55
Speaker 1: talked about this, it felt like a loss that was
32:58
Speaker 1: waiting to happen.
32:59
Speaker 4: Right.
32:59
Speaker 1: The Eagles have been playing with fire all season, winning
33:02
Speaker 1: in spite of themselves not playing great, still figuring out
33:06
Speaker 1: the new system offensively, so that game looked like it
33:11
Speaker 1: was a potential loss. It's why we were on the
33:13
Speaker 1: Jets at plus seven. So I love I love the
33:16
Speaker 1: Eagles and a bounce back spot.
33:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, they probably should have won. I mean, they scored
33:20
Speaker 3: fourteen and that was a first quarter and then they
33:22
Speaker 3: didn't score a single point the rest of the game.
33:24
Speaker 3: That's just random. They scored the fourteen and dominated the
33:27
Speaker 3: whole game. I believe it was fourteen twelve, and then
33:30
Speaker 3: they had another turnover. So if Herts didn't turn the
33:32
Speaker 3: bowl over three times and have a complete meltdown, no
33:35
Speaker 3: doubt the Egos would have won that game. This number
33:37
Speaker 3: is probably what minus three, So once again, you just
33:40
Speaker 3: you got to take the free value there when it's like,
33:43
Speaker 3: don't be so focused on what happened last week. It's
33:46
Speaker 3: a new week. I agree with the struggles of the
33:48
Speaker 3: egos offense. We talked, that's why we like the Jets.
33:50
Speaker 3: Last week, the Egles have struggled in the red zone.
33:53
Speaker 3: Miami's the perfect team to get right against. Their defense
33:57
Speaker 3: is just bad. Not only are they bad in the
33:59
Speaker 3: red zone, they're just that altogether.
34:02
Speaker 1: All right, Let's get to some other games we were
34:04
Speaker 1: interested in. That will include our big Balls Better of
34:07
Speaker 1: the week. So we're moving this from interested into probably
34:10
Speaker 1: playing it. And a quick reminder about our contest picks.
34:14
Speaker 1: We typically enter our initial picks into the content website
34:18
Speaker 1: contest website on Thursdays after the show, So after the show,
34:22
Speaker 1: Simon and il Chap we'll sort of nail down and
34:25
Speaker 1: confirm the conversation we just had, we'll put the picks in.
34:29
Speaker 1: But like anybody else in the contest, we sometimes change
34:32
Speaker 1: our picks before kickoff on Sunday. If you want to
34:36
Speaker 1: see the unofficial picks we've entered in the contest before
34:40
Speaker 1: we lock on Sunday, just go to the contest site
34:44
Speaker 1: Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com, search for the faves five.
34:48
Speaker 2: That's us.
34:49
Speaker 1: We have the initial picks, usually visible usually by Thursday afternoon.
34:53
Speaker 1: We usually talk about it right after we get off
34:55
Speaker 1: this podcast, so you'll see what we're initially through again,
35:00
Speaker 1: and then we talk again on Sunday afternoon after we
35:03
Speaker 1: do convince me and we decide if we are going
35:06
Speaker 1: to move any picks. But then we got to move
35:09
Speaker 1: all of them because lines lunch change as we sometimes
35:15
Speaker 1: over the course of the week. All Right, here we
35:18
Speaker 1: go Las Vegas Raiders visiting the Chicago Bears. We were
35:24
Speaker 1: hoping this moved three and a half. It hasn't yet,
35:28
Speaker 1: but Simon, I have a feeling right now this is
35:33
Speaker 1: going to.
35:33
Speaker 2: Be our big balls bet of the week.
35:40
Speaker 3: No, I'm not letting you do it to the fans.
35:41
Speaker 3: We're staying away from your Bears, Chad, stop trying to
35:43
Speaker 3: force your Bears in every week. We're staying away.
35:46
Speaker 2: Wow. I totally thought this was going to be that.
35:49
Speaker 3: No, I'm with you on the Bears, but I'm not
35:51
Speaker 3: putting them in the contest. I'm not making listeners of
35:53
Speaker 3: their show about them.
35:55
Speaker 1: You don't want to bet a bad team with a
35:57
Speaker 1: terrible defense and a quarterback against the worst team that
36:04
Speaker 1: is a suspect coach that just had a big win.
36:07
Speaker 2: This is a smash spot.
36:10
Speaker 3: Have a bear, as Sigmon, I'll be on, but I
36:13
Speaker 3: got no way of making a number on this game.
36:15
Speaker 3: I got no I got zero reid on the Raiders,
36:17
Speaker 3: zero read on the Bears. This this is the toughest
36:20
Speaker 3: game to map out for you this week. It's like
36:22
Speaker 3: I'm on the Bears, the pros are on the Bears.
36:24
Speaker 3: Chad just talked about like this is a spot play,
36:27
Speaker 3: but model wise impossible to make a number. I got
36:30
Speaker 3: zero read on this kid coming in for you. Guys.
36:32
Speaker 3: All I know about your quarterback is his dad's one
36:35
Speaker 3: of the greatest arm wrestlers in the world. He's a
36:37
Speaker 3: complete nuts up. So no, if you don't know that chat,
36:41
Speaker 3: you need to look up this kid's dad. He's an
36:42
Speaker 3: actually legend Simon.
36:44
Speaker 1: I've been rooting for this kid since preseason. I've been
36:47
Speaker 1: waiting for this kid to be the number two since.
36:49
Speaker 3: Like the Bears fans out Jesus Christ.
36:53
Speaker 2: I know, I know it's true. It was it was
36:55
Speaker 2: him or Nathan Peterman.
36:57
Speaker 1: So like the text chains I have from preseason about
37:00
Speaker 1: this company, you cannot believe.
37:04
Speaker 3: Please, guy, don't let Chad convince me to take the
37:06
Speaker 3: Bear Sunday morning. I'm hoping I have the strength and
37:09
Speaker 3: the with with you know I can't do it, Chad,
37:12
Speaker 3: I can't do it. Last week I felt so good
37:15
Speaker 3: not having them, even though we took a two and
37:17
Speaker 3: three a week it's like, thank God we have that
37:19
Speaker 3: Bears game, because that killed me a thousand times over.
37:21
Speaker 3: It's like all the opportunities were there, and then as
37:24
Speaker 3: soon as you saw Hurts get hurt, you're like, we're
37:26
Speaker 3: never going to get to this number, are we? And
37:29
Speaker 3: it feels the same with this week, where it's like
37:31
Speaker 3: everything in my body is telling me to take the Bears.
37:35
Speaker 3: Team like I can't wrap my head around the Raiders
37:38
Speaker 3: are about to be four and three through seven weeks.
37:41
Speaker 3: It's it's mind boggling, but that's how football goes. You
37:45
Speaker 3: get nice schedule breaks, like certain games match up certain ways.
37:50
Speaker 3: This is one of them, I guess, Chad, like, I
37:52
Speaker 3: don't know. I want to take the Bears. I hate
37:54
Speaker 3: the number though, I'll just I'll just stay away from
37:58
Speaker 3: this one.
37:59
Speaker 1: Please God give us the courage to change what must
38:03
Speaker 1: be altered, serenity to accept what cannot be helped, and
38:07
Speaker 1: insight to know the one from the other. I feel
38:10
Speaker 1: like we need to do the surrendering prayer every single
38:12
Speaker 1: time we talk about the Chicago Bears.
38:13
Speaker 3: I agree, so.
38:16
Speaker 1: Simon, as I was saying about the big balls better
38:18
Speaker 1: of the week, the Atlanta Falcons.
38:22
Speaker 2: There we go two and a half point.
38:24
Speaker 3: We founder people.
38:27
Speaker 1: At the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We were hoping to move
38:30
Speaker 1: the three. But right now the wise guys love it.
38:33
Speaker 1: Simon seems to be convinced from the sharp calls that
38:36
Speaker 1: this will now be our big Balls bet of the week,
38:43
Speaker 1: and it makes me sick. I cannot believe. Look, we
38:47
Speaker 1: said we were gonna have to do this anyways, but
38:49
Speaker 1: we were just hoping it would get to three.
38:51
Speaker 2: We're going to bet on this Atlanta Tampa Bay game.
38:53
Speaker 1: And to be honest, this game, if we're doing the
38:57
Speaker 1: luck rankings, and we like when we do the luck ring,
39:00
Speaker 1: we like there to be a certain threshold before we
39:03
Speaker 1: officially make it a luck rankings game. So this can't
39:07
Speaker 1: be an official luck rankings game. But the Falcons have
39:13
Speaker 1: ended up in the bad beats scenario for the past
39:18
Speaker 1: six weeks, brutal luck for them this year so far.
39:23
Speaker 1: This game is one ranking place away from a luck game,
39:28
Speaker 1: so to me, it's essentially a luck rankings game. Saw
39:32
Speaker 1: that this morning from Nick Giffen in our slack channel
39:35
Speaker 1: before we came on the air. So I agree with you,
39:38
Speaker 1: it's got it, it's got to we gotta do it.
39:40
Speaker 3: Got I hate it and we're just you know, the
39:43
Speaker 3: argument here is your buy alone Atlanta team that is
39:47
Speaker 3: rider going to really throw the three picks in the game.
39:49
Speaker 3: Is you really have a total meltdown again? No, we
39:52
Speaker 3: talked about that last week. It was like that was
39:54
Speaker 3: a good spot to fade him that that you know,
39:58
Speaker 3: he had a game he is Game of the Year
40:00
Speaker 3: two weeks ago, and we knew he was gonna have
40:02
Speaker 3: a down game the following week. I know it's gonna
40:05
Speaker 3: be a total meltdown against Washington now, but Chatterary told
40:07
Speaker 3: us all the stats, like they were moving the ball
40:09
Speaker 3: up and down the field on Washington, they just kept
40:12
Speaker 3: having you know, bad turnovers in the red zone or
40:14
Speaker 3: making little mistakes here and there. So this is another
40:18
Speaker 3: game where wouldn't be shocked if the Bucks do somehow win.
40:22
Speaker 3: But we're gonna trust the number of trust the points
40:24
Speaker 3: and take it that they'll win by two or less.
40:26
Speaker 3: And a lot of pros love the spot. I'm like
40:31
Speaker 3: still having a tough time getting there. That's why I
40:33
Speaker 3: feel like this has to be a big boss by
40:34
Speaker 3: the week where it's like you really do just gotta
40:37
Speaker 3: take the numbers, like you got to just trust the numbers,
40:40
Speaker 3: back them here, and it's a tough one the stomach chat.
40:44
Speaker 3: This is a tough, tough game to back, like me
40:46
Speaker 3: and you hate this kid, Ritter, He's just it's not
40:50
Speaker 3: a starter in this league. But we'll play the numbers
40:54
Speaker 3: and say the Bucks team, yes they are good, but
40:57
Speaker 3: they're a little overvalid. Right, they're not. But there's a
41:00
Speaker 3: reason I think they're still like plus three fifty or
41:02
Speaker 3: plus four hundred to win this division even though they're
41:04
Speaker 3: leading this division right now. So yeah, I love that.
41:08
Speaker 3: I love that play from Dvon. Ritter has yet to
41:10
Speaker 3: cover our first half spread in the NFL. So if
41:13
Speaker 3: you do like Tampa Tampa first half right with us
41:16
Speaker 3: Atlanta second half.
41:19
Speaker 1: By the way, producer Tito, who normally ignores everything that's
41:22
Speaker 1: happening in the podcast to just stroll through the blogs
41:27
Speaker 1: of various South Florida sports teams, let us know that
41:32
Speaker 1: sixty six percent of the chat said no to Chad
41:35
Speaker 1: trying to make the Bears the big balls bet of
41:40
Speaker 1: the week.
41:42
Speaker 3: So it's going to be love you guys.
41:44
Speaker 1: It's going to be The Atlanta Falcons is our big balls.
41:48
Speaker 1: Our foxhole is Baltimore minus two and a half. Atlanta's
41:51
Speaker 1: are a big balls simon. Can you name the fastest
41:55
Speaker 1: growing ticketing app in the United States?
41:58
Speaker 3: Game Time?
41:59
Speaker 1: That's right, it's our sponsor, game Time. I love game
42:02
Speaker 1: Time for two reasons. One is sponsored the show. Number two,
42:05
Speaker 1: I actually use game Time to buy tickets. They've got
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Speaker 1: pro and college football games. Speaking of which this is
42:16
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42:19
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42:23
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42:35
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42:43
Speaker 1: No matter where you live, download the game Time app,
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Speaker 1: get out have some fun this week Go sweat your
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Speaker 1: bets live and in person, and you can redeem come
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Speaker 1: dollars off last minute tickets lowest price. Garrin teed, all right,
43:01
Speaker 1: before we get to the money Line Underdog Round Robin,
43:06
Speaker 1: reminder that the Week seven contest tiebreaker is total rushing yards.
43:11
Speaker 1: On Monday night, Football Action Network predictive analyst Billy war
43:15
Speaker 1: writes a weekly piece about tiebreaker strategy, and a link
43:19
Speaker 1: to the article can be found in this episode's description.
43:23
Speaker 1: If you want a leg up in the contest, good look,
43:26
Speaker 1: all right, Simon, Moneyline Underdog Round Robin. My dog blocks
43:33
Speaker 1: your dog, Your dog blocks mo dog. Well, we're probably
43:39
Speaker 1: gonna put at Landa in there. Yeah, I think we're
43:42
Speaker 1: probably gonna put Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh in there. I feel like
43:47
Speaker 1: you want to put the Colts in there.
43:49
Speaker 3: We can. They're up to plus three, so definitely definitely
43:52
Speaker 3: gonna throw some on their their number, but not the
43:56
Speaker 3: best spot. Like Watson now left the door open. Then
43:58
Speaker 3: he might be coming back this so this number could move.
44:01
Speaker 3: So if you do want to put the Colts in,
44:03
Speaker 3: maybe wait, because if Watson gets cleared, I could see
44:05
Speaker 3: this going up another point or two. So yeah, if
44:07
Speaker 3: you want to lock it in right now, I wouldn't
44:10
Speaker 3: put the Colts in because I think you get better
44:11
Speaker 3: value come Sunday.
44:12
Speaker 2: What about the New York Football Giants?
44:15
Speaker 3: Yes, which is another game, Like I thought about there's
44:18
Speaker 3: two division games. I thought I would making our big
44:20
Speaker 3: balls it was the Giants or the Patriots. But ah
44:24
Speaker 3: Man couldn't get there.
44:26
Speaker 1: Simon, I might have to chant the serenity prayer if
44:32
Speaker 1: we have a conversation about putting the New England Patriots anywhere.
44:36
Speaker 3: No, we're not. I promise we wouldn't do it. We're
44:38
Speaker 3: not doing it, Like I just Evan keeps posting the
44:42
Speaker 3: stat It's like I think it's oh to twelve now
44:44
Speaker 3: mac as a dog in his last twelve straight, or
44:47
Speaker 3: it's just it's over thirteen. No, it's you can't. I
44:50
Speaker 3: can't wrap my head around it. Like I just thinking
44:52
Speaker 3: about the amount of money I've lost on this streak.
44:55
Speaker 3: Back in Bill Belichick as a dog and all that goodwill,
44:59
Speaker 3: all that money. I mate, I'm backing him with Tom
45:02
Speaker 3: Brady is probably gone at this point, like it really is.
45:05
Speaker 3: So that's the tough part where it's like I keep
45:09
Speaker 3: trying to come back the other side. It's like, oh,
45:10
Speaker 3: eventually it'll come back, right, Eventually Mac will go the
45:13
Speaker 3: other way where it's like he'll win sixth straight as
45:15
Speaker 3: a dog. That's probably not gonna happen. His career is
45:17
Speaker 3: probably gonna be over long before he'll get that opportunity.
45:20
Speaker 3: So yeah, we'll avoid that one for the money line
45:24
Speaker 3: round robin. Okay, so we have Giants Atlanta. Gotta get
45:29
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh in there.
45:31
Speaker 1: Yeah, Giants Atlanta Pittsburgh. I mean the Chargers I don't like.
45:37
Speaker 3: But yeah, I would do it though, just because no
45:39
Speaker 3: one's no one likes it, right.
45:41
Speaker 1: Right, it's like no one, no one likes it.
45:45
Speaker 2: I mean the I think the other one is probably Denver.
45:51
Speaker 3: It's it's minus one oh five, so it doesn't really
45:53
Speaker 3: count for us. Okay, we need a dog, we need
45:57
Speaker 3: a plus. Do we already put your shitty ass?
46:00
Speaker 2: I was gonna say we did put the Bears in.
46:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, we gotta like Raiders. Going four and three makes
46:05
Speaker 3: my skin crawl. I just can't run my head around it.
46:07
Speaker 3: So we won't torture people put in our final five,
46:12
Speaker 3: but we'll throw them in the round robin.
46:14
Speaker 1: Oh my god, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, New York Giants, LA Chargers,
46:23
Speaker 1: Chicago Bears grous Simon, it's time to make Little Caesars,
46:29
Speaker 1: which is the official sponsor of the NFL, part of
46:31
Speaker 1: your game day, Simon, does eating Little Caesars alone at
46:36
Speaker 1: home on game day feel like you're taking yourself out
46:41
Speaker 1: on a date?
46:42
Speaker 3: It does while I cry.
46:44
Speaker 1: Listen, There's nothing better than Little Caesars Pizza anytime. Order
46:49
Speaker 1: online during our Pizza Pizza pregame one hour before NFL
46:53
Speaker 1: games and get ready for some football and fun. Choose
46:56
Speaker 1: your favorite Little Caesars pizza or pick the topics you
46:59
Speaker 1: craze crave Simon, what do you think about this motto
47:02
Speaker 1: I invented? If betting moneyline dogs is must, then ordering
47:07
Speaker 1: crazy crust is a must.
47:10
Speaker 3: You hear a lyrical genius cheb Thank you.
47:12
Speaker 2: However you order your fiza, you win.
47:15
Speaker 1: And speaking of winning, everyone's scores with convene delivery or
47:19
Speaker 1: our in store pizza portal pickup, so grab some friends
47:23
Speaker 1: and enjoy a few slices during the game.
47:25
Speaker 3: The Survivor Pool pick of the week.
47:35
Speaker 2: I think our Survivor pick last week was Buffalo, So this.
47:39
Speaker 3: Week going to use the rams. Damn it.
47:41
Speaker 2: Oh my god, it's so weird. I was just going
47:43
Speaker 2: to say that, Yeah.
47:45
Speaker 3: But this week is another week. I feel like there's
47:47
Speaker 3: only one choice to make Seahawks play in Arizona. So
47:51
Speaker 3: we got another game before Caler Murray's back. I know
47:54
Speaker 3: this one feels like a trap and it's usually not
47:56
Speaker 3: gonna end well, but there's no James Connor. I told
47:59
Speaker 3: you that. To me, is such a big deal for
48:01
Speaker 3: this offense. Seahawks just lost a brutal game against Cincinnati
48:05
Speaker 3: where I believe there are all offense when one for
48:08
Speaker 3: five in the red zone. This is a gut right
48:10
Speaker 3: spot for the Seahawks at home against Arizona divisional game.
48:14
Speaker 3: Give me the Seahawks Chat for a survivor.
48:17
Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
48:20
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49:01
Speaker 2: All right.
49:02
Speaker 1: He's the star of our show every single episode, and
49:05
Speaker 1: on Thursdays, we're lucky enough to be joined by Action
49:10
Speaker 1: Network Director of Research, Evan Abrams, the engine behind the
49:14
Speaker 1: great stats and nuggets you hear in the show and
49:16
Speaker 1: across our network.
49:17
Speaker 2: Evan Abrams, you get the last word.
49:21
Speaker 3: The last word. With Evan Abrams, we're.
49:25
Speaker 2: Finished talking going on fellas.
49:28
Speaker 4: So for today, I'm giving you two theories to kind
49:31
Speaker 4: of live by. Number one would be the business Trip.
49:35
Speaker 4: So teams off of a loss playing on the road.
49:38
Speaker 4: They're just good bets in general. Their five hundred ats
49:41
Speaker 4: are better. In the eighteen of the last twenty one seasons,
49:45
Speaker 4: forty games above five hundred, last five years over five
49:48
Speaker 4: hundred ats all five years, two thousand game sample size.
49:53
Speaker 4: So teams off a loss on the road call it
49:56
Speaker 4: a business trip. This week, that would be Atlanta, Arizona Chargers,
50:00
Speaker 4: Green Bay, San Francisco. That's that number two. Just remember
50:06
Speaker 4: in this whole gambling thing, it's usually never that easy.
50:10
Speaker 4: So well break the habit. Teams who were awful loss
50:15
Speaker 4: and are over five hundred on the season. So good
50:17
Speaker 4: teams when they're home favorites the next week, and you're like,
50:20
Speaker 4: gotta win. One seventy seven, two fifteen, and nine five
50:26
Speaker 4: under five hundred against the spread every year since twenty seventeen.
50:30
Speaker 4: So now fade New Orleans, fades Seattle and I'm sorry,
50:36
Speaker 4: yes that would be fade the Eagles, oh those time.
50:41
Speaker 4: But it's basically like you assume a team's gonna win
50:44
Speaker 4: their home favorites. Everything looks right, maybe win, but maybe
50:48
Speaker 4: not cover, So not great for those small spreads.
50:51
Speaker 3: Look at you now, you just got your asses whipped
50:56
Speaker 3: by a bunch of goddamn nerds.
50:59
Speaker 4: Yeah, and then I leave you with this last one
51:03
Speaker 4: Saints unders.
51:04
Speaker 3: I just don't know how you don't talk about it.
51:05
Speaker 4: So Thursday Night Football, they're going forward again, but they've
51:08
Speaker 4: gone under the total six straight games this year, twelve
51:12
Speaker 4: straight games going to last year fifteen and one to
51:15
Speaker 4: the under in their last sixteen. But I leave you
51:18
Speaker 4: with this, if they go under on Thursday Night Football,
51:20
Speaker 4: that'll be thirteen straight unders. That will be a record
51:23
Speaker 4: in the Wildcard Era. No team has gone over or
51:26
Speaker 4: under thirteen consecutive games since nineteen ninety. So see if
51:31
Speaker 4: the Saints can do it.
51:32
Speaker 2: Oh my god, Evan, that was really disappointing.
51:37
Speaker 4: Listen, Sometimes I give you the great stuff, sometimes I
51:40
Speaker 4: give you the reality.
51:41
Speaker 3: It's just who I am. I'm in a numbers guy.
51:43
Speaker 2: I apologize, Simon. Does that scare you at all?
51:50
Speaker 3: No, Chad, That's why they play the game. Brother, Well
51:54
Speaker 3: let's get those nerds.
51:56
Speaker 4: No, we wait.
52:00
Speaker 1: To recap our foxhol Baltimore minus three are big balls.
52:06
Speaker 1: Bet of the week the Chicago I'm sorry, it's the
52:09
Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons plus two and a half. Right, I almost
52:11
Speaker 1: got you guys there. The exec decision is the LA
52:15
Speaker 1: Chargers plus five and a half. Simon says, despite Evan stats,
52:18
Speaker 1: he is undaunted. Philadelphia minus one and a half. Our
52:22
Speaker 1: round robin Pittsburgh, Atlanta, New York Giants, LA Chargers, Chicago Bears,
52:31
Speaker 1: the Phase five. It's interesting, Simon, if we had to
52:33
Speaker 1: lock in right now, we're going to talk about this.
52:35
Speaker 2: We get off the show and we look at the lines.
52:36
Speaker 3: Together, the faves five.
52:40
Speaker 1: For now, I'm not sure I know our five. I
52:42
Speaker 1: know we want the Eagles, I know we'd want Atlanta.
52:45
Speaker 1: I know we'd want the Chargers, but I don't think yes,
52:49
Speaker 1: the Ravens. So that's one, two, three, four. I don't
52:54
Speaker 1: know that I'm confident of our fifth right now.
52:57
Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll find it. I mean there's we'll find it.
52:59
Speaker 3: I would say there's three of four games we can
53:00
Speaker 3: all flight for. That depends on what number again in
53:02
Speaker 3: the actual contest.
53:04
Speaker 1: YEP Bears might be one of them. Before we sign off, reminder,
53:08
Speaker 1: Simon and I will be back with our week seven
53:09
Speaker 1: recap episode live on the Action Network YouTube page this
53:13
Speaker 1: Sunday and every Sunday at seven thirty pm Eastern. For
53:18
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, I am Chad Milman. Download us from Spotify,
53:22
Speaker 1: Apple Podcast, wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe,
53:25
Speaker 1: wes five stars, say whatever you want feedback as a
53:27
Speaker 1: gift until Sunday night, seven thirty Eastern.
53:31
Speaker 4: Love you.
53:38
Speaker 1: Action network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
53:42
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
53:45
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler