Latest / The Morning Edition / Australia’s ‘Moneyball’: Finding the next big thing in footy

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Australia’s ‘Moneyball’: Finding the next big thing in footy · The Morning Edition

• 0:01
  S1: The wizard. Casting spells. Kicking goals.
• 0:05
  S2: Football finals in Australia's biggest sporting codes are well and
• 0:08
  S2: truly upon us. And soon after the AFL grand final
• 0:12
  S2: is played, the other biggest show of the year, the
• 0:15
  S2: men's and women's draft begins.
• 0:18
  S1: Against the odds and the home final.
• 0:24
  S2: But the work to find the next big thing starts
• 0:26
  S2: years earlier, when scouts hunt for teenagers who possess unusual qualities.
• 0:32
  S3: Like six years now, six, seven. I've never seen a
• 0:35
  S3: big guy do this. This is kind of insane.
• 0:37
  S2: I'm Samantha Salinger Morris, and you're listening to Morning Edition.
• 0:41
  S2: From The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald today. Explainer
• 0:45
  S2: reporter Madeline Heffernan and sports reporter Peter Ryan on the
• 0:49
  S2: making of a sports star. Welcome, Madeline and Peter to
• 0:54
  S2: the podcast.
• 0:55
  S4: Thanks for having us.
• 0:57
  S5: Thank you.
• 0:57
  S2: Okay, first, I'd love it if you could give us
• 1:00
  S2: some context here. Just tell us how many kids now
• 1:03
  S2: play football in Australia. And then of those boys and
• 1:07
  S2: now girls, thanks to the AFL w how many then
• 1:10
  S2: go on to make it and turn professional. Madeleine, I'm
• 1:13
  S2: going to start with you.
• 1:14
  S5: Well, AFL is played by about 6% of people aged
• 1:18
  S5: 15 to 26. The AFL says that about 624,000. That's
• 1:24
  S5: children and adults play it. And it's the most attended
• 1:28
  S5: sport in the country as well.
• 1:31
  S2: Wow. Okay. And so Madeleine, I'm just going to stay
• 1:32
  S2: with you for another moment. Can you just clue us
• 1:34
  S2: in like, what is the selection process like, and how
• 1:38
  S2: much has it changed over the years?
• 1:40
  S5: Well, there's been huge change over the years. Players are
• 1:43
  S5: paid properly. They are now professional for women. In their
• 1:46
  S5: first season, they'll be on a base salary of just
• 1:48
  S5: over 72,000. For men. I think it starts at about
• 1:52
  S5: 125 and moves rapidly up. So back in the day
• 1:56
  S5: there were scouts kind of hanging about the ovals in
• 2:00
  S5: Melbourne and the southern states, basically looking to find the
• 2:03
  S5: next stars, and then it became a bit more professional.
• 2:06
  S5: We had recruiting managers and now we have list managers
• 2:09
  S5: who kind of run the whole show. And basically it's
• 2:12
  S5: a very long process. It takes years. So you're watching
• 2:15
  S5: players from probably 15 to 18 years of age. You're
• 2:19
  S5: following them, you're going to their games, you're crunching the
• 2:22
  S5: data until you get to the point where you decide,
• 2:24
  S5: these are the players that we want to pick for
• 2:26
  S5: our particular team.
• 2:27
  S2: Wow, that's absolutely incredible. We're going to dig down a
• 2:29
  S2: little bit deeper in just a moment. But Peter, for now,
• 2:31
  S2: I just want to go to you and just ask
• 2:33
  S2: you how the AFL's recruitment differs to other sports. Like,
• 2:37
  S2: is it similar, for instance, to the NFL where, you know,
• 2:41
  S2: many of us would know that there's just millions put
• 2:44
  S2: into scouting and recruiting players?
• 2:46
  S4: Well, it is different. I mean, the difference is firstly,
• 2:49
  S4: and most obviously is that the AFL draft players at
• 2:52
  S4: 18 years old, which is a very young age to
• 2:54
  S4: project how they're going to be when they're 23, 24,
• 2:58
  S4: 25 at the peak of their careers in America, in
• 3:01
  S4: the NFL, similar draft system, the bottom teams get the
• 3:04
  S4: first pick, and that's nominally the most talented player to
• 3:09
  S4: put onto their list. But they're 2223 year olds. Uh,
• 3:13
  S4: so they've had a lot more exposure. Uh, they've played
• 3:16
  S4: college football. They're more mature. The money's a lot bigger
• 3:19
  S4: for them in the EPL, which is the English Premier League,
• 3:23
  S4: slightly different. They'll have academies where they'll actually recruit players
• 3:27
  S4: at the age of 12, 13 or 14. They identify
• 3:31
  S4: as being good players and they'll just, uh, add them
• 3:34
  S4: to the list when they think they're ready to go.
• 3:36
  S4: There was a player who actually played when they were
• 3:37
  S4: 15 just recently, and then Major League Baseball and NBA
• 3:42
  S4: still have their draft, but again, they even have lotteries
• 3:45
  S4: to see who gets the first pick. The thing that's
• 3:48
  S4: the same is the amount of money, resources, and now
• 3:52
  S4: AI and physical testing that goes into actually examining who's
• 3:57
  S4: going to be a successful professional athlete.
• 4:00
  S2: Okay, well, this is what I really want to get
• 4:02
  S2: into with you, Peter, because you've written a whole book
• 4:04
  S2: on this subject, the deal maker with one of the
• 4:07
  S2: veterans of AFL talent recruiting. So tell us, like, what
• 4:10
  S2: are these scouts actually looking for? Like, you know, in a,
• 4:13
  S2: in a really sort of dedicated way?
• 4:16
  S4: Yeah. Well, the first thing that I wrote that with
• 4:18
  S4: Scott Clayton, who's been a recruiter for 40 years, and
• 4:22
  S4: the first thing that they look at is obviously talent.
• 4:24
  S4: They have probably a scout of people who are looking
• 4:26
  S4: at football games all through the country. And then the
• 4:30
  S4: next step is actually determining whether they're going to have
• 4:33
  S4: the not only the athletic traits, which they can measure objectively,
• 4:37
  S4: really how fast you can run, how high you can jump,
• 4:40
  S4: whether your skills are up to scratch, but also the
• 4:43
  S4: character traits, which are much more difficult to determine. They
• 4:48
  S4: can change much more easily. And they do. Uh, he
• 4:52
  S4: rates things like self efficacy, whether they're self driven is
• 4:56
  S4: a really high, um, character trait, whether they get out
• 4:59
  S4: of bed at 6:00 in the morning to prove themselves.
• 5:02
  S4: The big balance for a talent, um, identification is that
• 5:06
  S4: sometimes the person with less impulse control is more likely
• 5:10
  S4: to perform on a big stage in front of 100,000
• 5:12
  S4: people without worrying about it. So he has rules where
• 5:16
  S4: you need to follow rules, but not too many. You
• 5:19
  S4: need to be able to make your own decisions. And
• 5:21
  S4: then you get down to things like whether your pain
• 5:23
  S4: tolerance is high, your coachability is another thing that they
• 5:27
  S4: talk about, whether you accept feedback. And the word that
• 5:31
  S4: I'd never actually heard before I started doing this with
• 5:33
  S4: Madeline was one recruiter said to me, survivability is now
• 5:37
  S4: the trait that he looks for in the AFL system
• 5:40
  S4: because the young men are taken out of, uh, and
• 5:44
  S4: women taken out of their peer group, they're on 140,
• 5:48
  S4: $150,000 at 18 years old. They're treated like rock stars.
• 5:53
  S4: They're traveling a lot. They're having to be independent. And
• 5:57
  S4: all those things can, uh, either way, someone down or
• 6:01
  S4: distract them from their objective of actually getting a kick
• 6:04
  S4: on the weekend.
• 6:05
  S2: I mean, that is just incredible. That sounds like such
• 6:07
  S2: an uncommon formula that one person could possibly have. I mean,
• 6:11
  S2: I'm certainly feeling very inadequate. Thanks a lot, Peter. You know,
• 6:14
  S2: you've got someone who not only is obviously exceptionally talented
• 6:17
  S2: in their physical skills, but they follow rules, but not
• 6:20
  S2: so much that they can't be impulsive enough to not
• 6:22
  S2: be self-conscious on a.
• 6:23
  S4: Well, very few have that. Sorry to interrupt you, but
• 6:25
  S4: very few have all those qualities. But once they get
• 6:27
  S4: into the club, that's the other thing they're projecting. Are
• 6:29
  S4: they going to develop those qualities within and, and often
• 6:34
  S4: they find the players who go through the pathways are
• 6:38
  S4: so well trained in displaying those traits that whether they
• 6:42
  S4: actually have them is where they're looking for clues in
• 6:47
  S4: terms of speaking to people who know them.
• 6:49
  S2: Wow. Okay. We're going to get into that in a
• 6:51
  S2: little bit. But first of all, is there any player
• 6:53
  S2: that has been kind of just the perfect footballer, you know,
• 6:56
  S2: that possessed all of these skills?
• 6:58
  S5: Aaron Phillips is probably, yeah, I guess the best example
• 7:02
  S5: of someone who could kind of do anything. Um, her
• 7:05
  S5: father was a professional player. She played up until the
• 7:08
  S5: age that the girls system kind of ran out, and
• 7:11
  S5: then she transferred across to basketball, uh, played in Australia, America,
• 7:16
  S5: you know, around the world. Came back when the AFL
• 7:19
  S5: was starting up. She was in her early 30s, you know,
• 7:22
  S5: kicked three goals in her first game. Just an amazing
• 7:25
  S5: athlete and could do anything on the football field and
• 7:28
  S5: a real leader as well. So I think she was
• 7:30
  S5: probably she's definitely one of the best players, women players
• 7:33
  S5: that we've ever had.
• 7:35
  S2: What it also also had all those incredible psychological traits,
• 7:38
  S2: you know, resilience, survivability, uh, loves to, you know, test
• 7:42
  S2: their pain threshold, like all that stuff.
• 7:44
  S5: Well, I think, I mean, one of the reasons maybe
• 7:46
  S5: she was so terrific was the nature and nurture. She
• 7:49
  S5: had both. She had that sort of the upbringing with
• 7:51
  S5: her father and the training, as well as perhaps some
• 7:54
  S5: genetic advantages as well. Mhm.
• 7:57
  S4: And she was just one tough hombre as well.
• 8:01
  S6: I love that.
• 8:02
  S2: I love that. And Peter, this brings me to my
• 8:06
  S2: next question, which is that this is so fascinating that
• 8:08
  S2: one of the things that you've said that recruiters look
• 8:10
  S2: at is what is going on in the homes of
• 8:13
  S2: these young people. So tell us about that.
• 8:16
  S7: Well, they'll do at least three.
• 8:17
  S4: Three visits to the family home. They have lots of
• 8:19
  S4: interviews with players in more training camps or what they
• 8:24
  S4: call draft combines, which is where they test their athletic traits.
• 8:27
  S4: But they're like going to an office and having an interview,
• 8:30
  S4: whereas they go to the family home. And one of
• 8:33
  S4: the things that Madeleine spoke to one of her best recruiters,
• 8:36
  S4: David Wells, who said a great thing that siblings can't lie,
• 8:41
  S4: they can spot when someone's, um, you know, gilding the
• 8:45
  S4: lily because their sister or brother will say, well, that's rubbish.
• 8:47
  S4: That's not what happens. And then they can also observe
• 8:50
  S4: around the house. If, say, for instance, a footballs lying around,
• 8:55
  S4: whether their boots are sitting out um on the hallway,
• 8:59
  S4: whether there's their bedrooms, looks, looks messy, whether they've got
• 9:03
  S4: posters on the walls of favourite players, whether they've got
• 9:06
  S4: other sporting interests or whether they think it's just, you know, they,
• 9:10
  S4: they're talented at it, but they don't really care that
• 9:12
  S4: much about it. Um, they can tell by the way
• 9:15
  S4: they treat the people around them, even their mum and dad,
• 9:18
  S4: the way they speak to them and whether they might
• 9:20
  S4: get up and make a cup of tea for everyone,
• 9:23
  S4: or just the whole environment, gives them a sense of
• 9:26
  S4: what their capacity to be, um, mature quickly and be
• 9:30
  S4: a good teammate.
• 9:31
  S2: Wow. So for instance, if you're not, you know, offering
• 9:34
  S2: your parents a cup of tea, or if you're speaking rudely,
• 9:36
  S2: perhaps you won't be a good team player. Is that
• 9:37
  S2: the sort of thing that they would gauge? Yeah.
• 9:39
  S4: I mean, they'd be pretty well trained not to do that.
• 9:41
  S4: But even things like, um, just the state of their
• 9:44
  S4: bedroom or, you know.
• 9:45
  S6: Yeah.
• 9:45
  S2: So. So what are you saying is a messy bedroom bed?
• 9:47
  S2: I thought that was the sign of a creative mind.
• 9:50
  S4: That could be for us journalists, but I'm not sure
• 9:52
  S4: it is for an AFL player or prospective AFL player.
• 9:56
  S4: They would have. I mean, it'd be less likely to
• 9:58
  S4: happen now when they're going around to these things. But
• 10:00
  S4: back in the day, it was certainly if they dropped
• 10:02
  S4: in on someone's house and there were signs there that
• 10:05
  S4: they weren't disciplined, they definitely take that into account.
• 10:10
  S2: After the break.
• 10:11
  S4: Given the level of investment and the level of importance
• 10:15
  S4: of that pick, being a star player, if you make
• 10:17
  S4: that mistake, it costs people jobs.
• 10:22
  S2: And both of you spoke to young athletes who are
• 10:25
  S2: just about at the pointy end of this process, because
• 10:28
  S2: the draft for the AFL is, of course, just a
• 10:30
  S2: few weeks away. So what stands out about these teenagers
• 10:33
  S2: and how do they handle the pressure of being identified
• 10:36
  S2: so young?
• 10:38
  S5: I spoke to an 18 year old, Maddie Maher, who
• 10:42
  S5: is from Melbourne. She started playing football sort of seriously,
• 10:46
  S5: only about 5 or 6 years ago. She had a
• 10:48
  S5: background in athletics and is still incredibly fast, and that's
• 10:51
  S5: been a real advantage for her. She has been combining
• 10:56
  S5: year 12 with her football load, which is huge. She
• 11:01
  S5: hopes to be drafted next year and has tertiary plans
• 11:04
  S5: as well. So I think, um, people like that at
• 11:07
  S5: a young age who um, pretty much have every hour
• 11:10
  S5: of the day kind of mapped out and are so driven.
• 11:12
  S5: That's exactly the kind of stuff that recruiters look for
• 11:15
  S5: someone who is organized, who has a life outside football,
• 11:19
  S5: yet can take the sport very seriously and be ready
• 11:22
  S5: to play at a really high level quickly.
• 11:24
  S2: And Peter, you also spoke to one young man who
• 11:27
  S2: is tipped to be right up there, right in the
• 11:29
  S2: draft pick. So tell us about him.
• 11:30
  S4: Yeah. Well, Harry Van Hattum, he's 205cm at 17 or 18,
• 11:35
  S4: so he stands out in the crowd. He's an elite, uh,
• 11:39
  S4: junior athlete. Um, he's got a huge leap on him.
• 11:43
  S4: He goes to Ivanhoe Grammar. Very committed to his study. Um,
• 11:47
  S4: I found having a conversation with him and even teeing
• 11:51
  S4: up an interview with him as remarkable for a 17
• 11:55
  S4: or 18 year old was so professional and so easy
• 11:58
  S4: to talk to. Had a good sense of self, was
• 12:01
  S4: a bit self-deprecating.
• 12:03
  S8: Especially the bottom edges that want to make it encodes.
• 12:05
  S8: How do they become successful?
• 12:06
  S9: I'm just trying to have a consistent year like, um, yeah,
• 12:09
  S9: especially playing bottom eight, just trying to have a consistent
• 12:11
  S9: base level of footy throughout the whole year. And they're
• 12:13
  S9: holding in good stead.
• 12:14
  S4: I mean, straight away they're going to be standing up
• 12:15
  S4: in front of a television audience and then a football
• 12:18
  S4: club audience, and they're going to be feted as someone
• 12:20
  S4: who's going to save their club. Uh, so it's a
• 12:23
  S4: big responsibility and they need to be able to present well.
• 12:26
  S4: And he certainly did that.
• 12:27
  S2: Wow. That's just incredible. And I've got one question for
• 12:30
  S2: the two of you. I mean, you can have all
• 12:32
  S2: the technology in the world, right? You can watch all
• 12:34
  S2: the games, but there's got to be times when recruiters
• 12:37
  S2: still miss the next big thing, right? Like, is there
• 12:40
  S2: the sporting equivalent of author J.K. Rowling being passed over
• 12:43
  S2: by 12 publishing houses before one said, yeah, I'm going
• 12:46
  S2: to I'm going to go with this Harry Potter thing.
• 12:48
  S2: And and assuming there is and that AFL recruiters have,
• 12:52
  S2: you know, they have experienced that they've missed the next
• 12:54
  S2: big thing. What does that say about the prospects of
• 12:56
  S2: potential stars?
• 12:58
  S4: Uh, I think the, the thought that they would miss
• 13:01
  S4: the next big thing in the same way as an
• 13:03
  S4: author is probably very much less likely than it may
• 13:07
  S4: have been in the past where there were less resources.
• 13:11
  S4: You could have a country footballer who just was overlooked
• 13:14
  S4: and kept plying his trade, but people will say he was.
• 13:17
  S4: He should have played AFL. Um, nowadays that just wouldn't
• 13:20
  S4: happen because you've got scouts who have got links to
• 13:23
  S4: all sorts of players, male and female, in all grades,
• 13:27
  S4: and if you're playing football, you're going to eventually make
• 13:30
  S4: some representative team or you've got athletic traits. I think
• 13:34
  S4: the thing is that recruiters now can make the wrong
• 13:37
  S4: decision on a player and use a high draft pick
• 13:41
  S4: that could have yielded them a generational talent and instead
• 13:44
  S4: yields them a player who doesn't prove to have all
• 13:48
  S4: those traits that we were talking about, like self efficacy
• 13:51
  S4: or survivability and plays 15 or 20 games. And given
• 13:56
  S4: the level of investment and the level of importance of
• 13:59
  S4: that pick, being a star player, if you make that mistake,
• 14:03
  S4: it costs people, jobs, people's jobs. So that's the real
• 14:07
  S4: risk rather than actually missing a player.
• 14:10
  S5: David Walls, the Fremantle recruiter that we spoke to, he
• 14:14
  S5: recruited Murphy Reid, who is now in his. We just
• 14:16
  S5: played his second season and been an absolute star. Um,
• 14:19
  S5: and he was passed over by a lot of clubs
• 14:22
  S5: before Fremantle picked him up. So it happens. And I'm
• 14:25
  S5: sure the other clubs are sad that they didn't get him. However,
• 14:29
  S5: I think all the clubs would say they've recruited the
• 14:31
  S5: wrong person at least. Yeah, they've all done it. they've
• 14:34
  S5: all done it, and they'd get it. You know, they'd
• 14:36
  S5: probably say, we get it right. I don't know, 80%
• 14:39
  S5: of the time. That's what one of them said. So,
• 14:42
  S5: you know, and for whatever reason, it doesn't work out,
• 14:44
  S5: maybe they get injured. Maybe it's not a good cultural fit.
• 14:48
  S5: Maybe they don't work hard enough. There are lots of
• 14:51
  S5: ways that it can go wrong. Yeah. But, you know,
• 14:53
  S5: on the other hand, you know, this is such a big, expensive, lengthy,
• 14:58
  S5: sophisticated process that what you're seeing is a lot of
• 15:01
  S5: the people that they do recruit, they're pretty amazing, aren't they? Peter.
• 15:04
  S10: Yeah, yeah.
• 15:05
  S4: They are incredible. I mean, the, the, the, the good
• 15:08
  S4: cultures actually, uh, support them so that they also become
• 15:12
  S4: pretty decent men and women because they are exposed to
• 15:16
  S4: a lot of adulation before their time.
• 15:19
  S2: I have to ask, you know, what is it that
• 15:20
  S2: Fremantle saw in Murphy read that the previous 11 clubs
• 15:24
  S2: did not.
• 15:25
  S4: Well, you might be able to answer that, Madeleine, but
• 15:28
  S4: his decision making as a player, every time he touched
• 15:30
  S4: the ball, he made a good decision with it.
• 15:32
  S5: There's this thing called footy IQ that they speak of.
• 15:35
  S5: It's footy now, so it's sort of someone who can, uh,
• 15:39
  S5: think so quickly and just know what's going to happen next.
• 15:43
  S5: And even though he's only 18, 19, 20, it's sort
• 15:46
  S5: of like he's reading the play like he's been playing
• 15:48
  S5: it for 15 years. Like these veteran players that are
• 15:51
  S5: so well known.
• 15:54
  S2: It's so interesting. Well, I imagine so many people will
• 15:56
  S2: be listening to this thinking, I wonder if my kid's
• 15:59
  S2: got what it takes or if you know. So thank
• 16:02
  S2: you so much, Madeleine and Peter for your time.
• 16:04
  S4: Thanks for your enthusiasm at this time of the day.
• 16:06
  S4: It's fantastic.
• 16:07
  S5: Thank you Samantha.
• 16:12
  S2: Today's episode was produced by Tammy Mills, and our podcasts
• 16:16
  S2: are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. If you
• 16:20
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