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UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:04
Speaker 1: All system's going clear. We lift.
0:36
Speaker 2: What's going on everybody. Hope you're having a good week.
0:39
Speaker 3: We are back talking to UFC, my man Big Marley
0:42
Speaker 3: and myself. What we got in chat right now? Nate
0:45
Speaker 3: ne the first one this week. Hope you're doing well.
0:48
Speaker 3: I wish I could come in here and be like, yeah,
0:50
Speaker 3: we got a phenomenal card this and that it wasn't
0:53
Speaker 3: usual like a fight night thirteen fight card, that's what
0:56
Speaker 3: it seems like we've had recently, like some mid fights.
0:58
Speaker 3: But if we have thirteen fight that's really all I
1:01
Speaker 3: care about for DFS. MMA is pretty much a combination game.
1:04
Speaker 3: The more combinations you have, the more fighters available, usually
1:07
Speaker 3: ownership more spread out, easier to get to the top
1:09
Speaker 3: with less people. We lost to fight Allen Nosmento and
1:13
Speaker 3: Mitch Riposo this morning, so that brings us from thirteen
1:16
Speaker 3: to twelve. Still the magic number twelve, So I'm not
1:18
Speaker 3: going to be too sad, but yeah, we go from
1:21
Speaker 3: probably card of the year so far last week to
1:24
Speaker 3: pretty mids card. But hey, at least we got Winnipeg, Canada.
1:29
Speaker 3: We have a live crowd. It's not at the Apex,
1:31
Speaker 3: so yeah, it's fights on my screen on Saturday.
1:33
Speaker 2: I won't complain, but not the best card.
1:34
Speaker 3: I'll say from the top, Big Marley, what are your
1:36
Speaker 3: thoughts on this one last week? If you have anything
1:39
Speaker 3: to say about that, that was crazy? And then yet
1:41
Speaker 3: how we're doing.
1:42
Speaker 4: Yeah, Josh hok, it's my favorite fighter. He's the biggest
1:45
Speaker 4: star in the UFC. And yeah, this is a tough
1:49
Speaker 4: card to come back to after that one. This I
1:52
Speaker 4: feel like, if I'm not doing well on this card,
1:54
Speaker 4: I'm turning it off before the main event happens and
1:56
Speaker 4: finding something else to do with my Saturday night. So
2:00
Speaker 4: hopefully I am live going into this main at least
2:03
Speaker 4: the main card. Otherwise this is gonna be a tough
2:06
Speaker 4: card to sit through. I mean, a handful of the
2:08
Speaker 4: fights on this card I don't really care to watch
2:10
Speaker 4: it now, so don't even care too much for dfs either.
2:13
Speaker 4: So we'll talk it out. I hope that it's it
2:16
Speaker 4: is a sweat and then I'll start to care about
2:18
Speaker 4: all of them. But there's a couple of fights I'm
2:21
Speaker 4: hoping you can sway me on caring about because I'm
2:24
Speaker 4: gonna need some more underdogs to like on this card.
2:28
Speaker 3: All right, Maybe I can help you a little bit
2:30
Speaker 3: with that. It's tough, but this is what it's all about.
2:33
Speaker 3: Matt's ancient coins. Happy to catch you as live. I'll
2:35
Speaker 3: be there for my first event, Lord and level names,
2:38
Speaker 3: but I'm still excited.
2:39
Speaker 2: Matt. It is.
2:40
Speaker 3: I think Big Marley's on the same page. It's my
2:42
Speaker 3: favorite sporting event for sure. And I didn't grow up
2:45
Speaker 3: in MMA like I grew up around all the other sports.
2:48
Speaker 3: It is unlike any other thing. I mean, hey, you
2:50
Speaker 3: get like eight hours of violence. There's plenty of drinking throughout.
2:54
Speaker 3: I mean, two people trying to kill each other at
2:56
Speaker 3: the end of the day, and it feels everyone around
2:58
Speaker 3: you just feels has that same vibe. They all love
3:01
Speaker 3: the same thing.
3:01
Speaker 2: It is.
3:02
Speaker 3: It's a phenomenal time. Big Marley, What's what's your favorite
3:04
Speaker 3: sporting event?
3:06
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, if you can get like a big
3:08
Speaker 4: playoff game in a big sport, that I'd say that,
3:10
Speaker 4: But just any random event. Definitely UFC, especially if it's
3:14
Speaker 4: not a great card like being there live, it's still
3:17
Speaker 4: gonna be awesome. Amazing on TV might not be so awesome,
3:21
Speaker 4: but the atmosphere, no doubt's gonna be sick.
3:24
Speaker 3: Of the oh one hundred percent. Yeah, UFC for me,
3:26
Speaker 3: no doubt. Look at that first time too, and it's
3:29
Speaker 3: my birthday. Happy birthday to you and yeah you too.
3:31
Speaker 3: I'm very jealous. Enjoy the card. It's been a little
3:34
Speaker 3: too long since I've been to my last one, but man,
3:36
Speaker 3: I'm very jealous over here. Nate d tell you's Mike
3:40
Speaker 3: why sen Uh Yeah, that we got everyone, Mills Yssen
3:45
Speaker 3: hope everyone's having a great day now. You guys got
3:47
Speaker 3: me fired up because I'm putting myself in your shoes
3:49
Speaker 3: and I would be very pumped for Saturday. Any broadslide
3:52
Speaker 3: o reverview on this twell fighter before you go fight
3:53
Speaker 3: by fight.
3:56
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean the real summer. I feel like a
3:59
Speaker 4: lot of the ownership it's going to be spread to
4:00
Speaker 4: the top three priced fighters and then you find your
4:04
Speaker 4: underdogs from there.
4:06
Speaker 2: Yeah.
4:06
Speaker 3: Barbosa ninety four hundred, definitely agree, ninety three hundred, Malt
4:10
Speaker 3: ninety two hundred, Jasmine. Yeah, always interesting to see last
4:13
Speaker 3: week the wrestler Mateyu Scamroot definitely got Steve. One thing
4:16
Speaker 3: I want to say about last week's card just the
4:18
Speaker 3: MMA game theory itself. We got a lot, right, there's
4:21
Speaker 3: plenty of winners in the discord shout out to a
4:23
Speaker 3: lot of people, but no first place finishes in our
4:27
Speaker 3: discord were all the way in first and that's because
4:29
Speaker 3: there was only like one person I think in both contests.
4:32
Speaker 3: And what it came down to was Vicente Luke, which
4:34
Speaker 3: just shows an mma one change a six percent owned
4:38
Speaker 3: fighter literally one pivot, one low owned person could be
4:41
Speaker 3: the difference between second place, which I believe was thirty
4:44
Speaker 3: seven hundred with a decent amount of people, and again
4:46
Speaker 3: you take that all day, plenty of our members were
4:48
Speaker 3: in that first place was one hundred thousand?
4:51
Speaker 2: Is it?
4:52
Speaker 3: I don't know exactly if it was a one v
4:53
Speaker 3: one Luke and seven hundred more or whatever it is,
4:56
Speaker 3: But that's how you have to think about the sport.
4:58
Speaker 2: Is it worth? Is it three VX payout? Is it
5:00
Speaker 2: a ten X payout? Is a twenty x payout?
5:03
Speaker 3: What's the payout you are expecting to get when you
5:05
Speaker 3: do make a change like that to Luke. For this guy,
5:08
Speaker 3: it was a lot, a lot of extra money and
5:10
Speaker 3: one hundred k solo and then that pays for a
5:12
Speaker 3: lot of losses down the line. So even when we
5:15
Speaker 3: say on this card, like we don't like a guy necessarily.
5:17
Speaker 3: It's kind of based on how many teams you play.
5:20
Speaker 3: Most of the pros when they play one fifty, they're
5:22
Speaker 3: playing every single fighter in chalk your lineups, they're getting different,
5:25
Speaker 3: like a luke, like a leaving money and got.
5:28
Speaker 2: This guy one hundred thousand richers.
5:29
Speaker 3: So this NFL showdown, NBA showdown, Tennis, certain sports like that.
5:35
Speaker 3: With there's limited combinations that means more. So just a
5:37
Speaker 3: little rant there that I want to talk, But we're
5:39
Speaker 3: trying to mix in our fight knowledge, how we think
5:41
Speaker 3: the fights go, and the theory of DFS to get
5:44
Speaker 3: to the top by yourself.
5:45
Speaker 2: So let's get into it. First fight of the night.
5:47
Speaker 3: Jamie Saraje minus two fifty six taken on John Janas
5:50
Speaker 3: plus two sixteen, minus one fifty for this fight to finish,
5:54
Speaker 3: Sarage plus one fifteen inside the distance, Yan is plus
5:57
Speaker 3: three eighty five.
5:58
Speaker 2: And we have a peer grappler that started Saraje.
6:00
Speaker 3: Plus one fifteen inside the distance, he's plus one eighty
6:03
Speaker 3: x sub open plus two to ten.
6:06
Speaker 2: How do you see this one going?
6:08
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's gonna be a striker ver ase
6:10
Speaker 4: grappler matchup. Uh, where Saraj is gonna need to get
6:14
Speaker 4: this fight to the ground and Yanni is the striker.
6:18
Speaker 4: I think that Janni's has some pretty good hands. He's
6:22
Speaker 4: a solid boxer. He's got fast hands, slick hands, and
6:25
Speaker 4: he could also knock Saraje out. But his weakness is
6:29
Speaker 4: being taken down and just kind of being stuck on
6:31
Speaker 4: his backet sometimes, and I think that that's exactly what
6:35
Speaker 4: Sarage is gonna want to do. He will spend a
6:38
Speaker 4: little bit of time on his feet, but it's not
6:39
Speaker 4: pretty so in this matchup, I think he's gonna be
6:42
Speaker 4: forced to wrestle early and often. So my preferred play
6:47
Speaker 4: from the start is gonna be Sarage because I think
6:50
Speaker 4: if he wins, it's gonna be grappling heavy. I think
6:52
Speaker 4: it could be a submission or a wrestling based decision
6:55
Speaker 4: and still score well. He's also gonna be lower on
6:58
Speaker 4: than those other three favorites that I'm in earlier. So
7:00
Speaker 4: I do like Saraj, But on the other end, Yanis
7:04
Speaker 4: is gonna be a good play too, because he helps
7:07
Speaker 4: you afford those other three guys that we have talked about,
7:10
Speaker 4: or well, two of the two guys and one girl
7:12
Speaker 4: that we talked about, You're just gonna be a little
7:14
Speaker 4: bit chalky if you're if you're going to those same
7:16
Speaker 4: types of lineups. Already tried to build a couple of them,
7:19
Speaker 4: and I just felt like I was eating a bunch
7:21
Speaker 4: of chalk as I was building them. So you gotta
7:24
Speaker 4: think a ways to get different on this card. Maybe
7:25
Speaker 4: it is similar to last week where you leave money
7:27
Speaker 4: on the table, go to a look instead of getting
7:30
Speaker 4: a Sarage, you go to somebody a little bit lower
7:32
Speaker 4: or not Saraja yanis you got a little bit lower
7:35
Speaker 4: than him. But I think that I'm always interested in
7:39
Speaker 4: DFS when it is striker verse grappler matchup because you
7:42
Speaker 4: have the potential for one hundred points from whoever that
7:45
Speaker 4: winner is. But I think Saraje gets the win.
7:48
Speaker 3: Yeah, for your last point is kind of why I'm
7:50
Speaker 3: in on this fight. Hey, it's the first fight of
7:52
Speaker 3: the night. Some people get more scared of that. It's
7:54
Speaker 3: minus two fifty six, So Saraja decent favorite at ninety
7:57
Speaker 3: one hundred and right now we have all three fight,
8:00
Speaker 3: like you said, Jasmine Malot and Big Marley does her
8:03
Speaker 3: ownership over here. You have all three Malot, Jasmine and
8:07
Speaker 3: Barbosa forty percent plus ownership. That means Saraj is in
8:11
Speaker 3: the low twenties or somewhere around there. And if that's
8:13
Speaker 3: the case, he has as much upset, I think as
8:15
Speaker 3: any of them in a vacuum. If you're a primary grappler,
8:18
Speaker 3: he's gonna go out and try and look for a
8:19
Speaker 3: takedown right away. If Giannis gets back up, he's gonna
8:22
Speaker 3: try another one. So if it does go his way
8:24
Speaker 3: and he pays off a minus two to fifty price take,
8:27
Speaker 3: I think it's through the mat. Multiple takedowns. A first
8:29
Speaker 3: round submission obviously has plenty of passes. Score plus three
8:33
Speaker 3: fifteen round one for Saraj a solid score. I'm fine
8:37
Speaker 3: dropping any of them to him. Again, you build a
8:39
Speaker 3: Malat or Barbosa team and you drop down and leave
8:41
Speaker 3: three hundred two hundred, that could be talking the one
8:45
Speaker 3: way chop or no chops, one way chop, two way,
8:47
Speaker 3: et cetera. And then yeah, for Giannis, like you said,
8:50
Speaker 3: a striker versus grappler, if he can't get the takedowns,
8:53
Speaker 3: Giannis will probably have the advantage on the feet. He's
8:55
Speaker 3: seventy one hundred and plus three eighty five for him
8:57
Speaker 3: to finish isn't bad at a seventy one hundred, So
9:01
Speaker 3: I'm in on this first fight. I'm overweight, it's minus
9:03
Speaker 3: one fifty to finish. I will be cheering for a
9:05
Speaker 3: finish and hope one of these who are on the
9:08
Speaker 3: optional probably when it's all said and done, all right,
9:11
Speaker 3: we'll keep it to the next fight on the card,
9:13
Speaker 3: mid tier fight. The closest price, Mark Vologden taking on
9:17
Speaker 3: John Castaneda. So the under or the cheaper fighter. Ak
9:21
Speaker 3: Cassanda now the favorite minus one twenty five. Mark plus
9:24
Speaker 3: one oh five plus one ten for this fight to
9:26
Speaker 3: finish both guys individual inside the disiness prop is plus
9:30
Speaker 3: two seventy So yeah, this line did flip. Mark open
9:33
Speaker 3: minus one thirty five and now finds himself as a
9:36
Speaker 3: plus one oh five underdog. This fight also open plus
9:39
Speaker 3: one hundred to finish now plus one ten. So Cassaneda
9:42
Speaker 3: has taken money and the over has taken money. You
9:45
Speaker 3: have it a two star and I see it pretty
9:47
Speaker 3: similar most Castanada fights. I don't target too heavily in DFS.
9:51
Speaker 2: How do you see it?
9:52
Speaker 4: Yeah, not a fight I'm interested in targeting. I am
9:56
Speaker 4: still interested in Cassanada. I picked him when he was
9:59
Speaker 4: an underdog, and I like because of the plus next
10:01
Speaker 4: to his name. Now is a favorite, He's gonna get
10:03
Speaker 4: a good amount of ownership, So I just don't really
10:06
Speaker 4: love eating that chalk when I don't think he's a
10:10
Speaker 4: likely high scorer. I think he could score well. I
10:12
Speaker 4: think he could get a finish, whether it be a
10:14
Speaker 4: knockout or submission in this fight. But I could also
10:17
Speaker 4: see him score in sixty points in the decision, and
10:20
Speaker 4: I think that's more likely than a hundred points is
10:23
Speaker 4: So I'm gonna try to avoid this fight Vologden. He's
10:26
Speaker 4: just a real short striker. I mean he'll throw heat.
10:31
Speaker 4: He'll also throw some volume too, but he's just he's
10:33
Speaker 4: too small for me. He's also didn't look special at all.
10:38
Speaker 4: He's just winging bombs, and if one lands on Castaneda
10:41
Speaker 4: and puts him away, then he's gonna score big. But
10:44
Speaker 4: if he doesn't knock him out, I think he's gonna
10:46
Speaker 4: stay on the feet the whole time unless he's on
10:48
Speaker 4: his back, and I just don't see a big score
10:50
Speaker 4: in this one. So give me Castaneda as the pick,
10:53
Speaker 4: the preferred play. But I'm gonna try and pass and
10:55
Speaker 4: look to other ways, really even leave Castanata to go
11:01
Speaker 4: down to whoever we just talked about Yanni's instead, and
11:04
Speaker 4: that's that's your way to get different right there.
11:06
Speaker 2: One hundred percent agree.
11:07
Speaker 3: What do you think, Cassanda or what would you say,
11:10
Speaker 3: cassanes takedown prop at one and a half? Yeah, because
11:15
Speaker 3: like if the only way I think he really gets
11:17
Speaker 3: there is if he just wrestles pretty heavily or I
11:19
Speaker 3: mean it's plus two seventy finished if either of them think.
11:22
Speaker 3: I think Mark's probably more likely for one shopping, but
11:25
Speaker 3: Cassaneda probably could wrestle if he wants to in this
11:28
Speaker 3: one if he starts chaining him is where there is upside.
11:31
Speaker 3: But four fights in the mid tier, two are expected
11:34
Speaker 3: to finish, and the other fight Gage Young and Thiago Moyses.
11:37
Speaker 2: I prefer more than this one.
11:38
Speaker 3: If having to choose, you have both two stars, I
11:42
Speaker 3: guess I'll ask you right now, would be this fighter?
11:43
Speaker 3: Would it be that Gauge Young Moyses fight? If you
11:45
Speaker 3: had to pick one.
11:48
Speaker 4: I feel like I'm gonna try and get away from
11:49
Speaker 4: both if I can, I guess, I mean, I'm not
11:54
Speaker 4: gonna I'd say Volognin's my least favorite play of the four.
11:58
Speaker 4: Maybe Castaneda's my favorite, but Moyses has like the highest
12:03
Speaker 4: ceiling if he's smart, it's just it depends on how
12:06
Speaker 4: he fights.
12:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, this would is that.
12:08
Speaker 3: I agree the rankings like these are the worst two
12:11
Speaker 3: fights in the mid tier. This one would be my
12:13
Speaker 3: least favorite. I also think Cassanda could be getting probably
12:16
Speaker 3: not too much ownership, but if this line keeps moving,
12:19
Speaker 3: anytime you see a cheaper fighter as the favorite, if
12:22
Speaker 3: he has like a minus one forty next to his
12:23
Speaker 3: name at ak, that's going to drive some ownership. And
12:27
Speaker 3: for a tournaments, you're playing a ceiling game, so it
12:29
Speaker 3: wouldn't really make me like him too much more. Assume
12:31
Speaker 3: as inside the distance stays, it would just make you
12:34
Speaker 3: want to get away from it even more. Or Vologden
12:36
Speaker 3: would then be a little interesting. Maybe if you're talking
12:39
Speaker 3: like fifteen percent with a plus two to seventy inside
12:42
Speaker 3: of the Disne's prop if Cassanada was like thirty for leverage,
12:45
Speaker 3: But yeah, in a vacuum, not a fight either of
12:47
Speaker 3: us want to target much of even worse fight than
12:50
Speaker 3: this one, in my opinion, is the next Jamie Linhorth
12:53
Speaker 3: minus one forty five JJ Aldrick plus one twenty five
12:56
Speaker 3: minus five hundred for this fight to go the distance
12:59
Speaker 3: open minus four seventy five now minus five hundred, Horth
13:03
Speaker 3: plus four hundred inside of distance distance Aldrich plus nine
13:07
Speaker 3: p fifty. I'm passing on both sides. I guess my
13:10
Speaker 3: question to you, how often is sixty two enough from
13:13
Speaker 3: JJ Aldrick at seventy three hundred this week?
13:19
Speaker 4: Not often? I would say it would be like twenty
13:23
Speaker 4: percent or less if we knew she was gonna score that.
13:25
Speaker 4: I mean maybe twenty percent, because maybe she's the key.
13:29
Speaker 4: You get hurt and then one of those those big
13:31
Speaker 4: favorites are two of those big favorites in your lineup.
13:33
Speaker 4: I guess that could work. But I'm picking Aldridge to
13:36
Speaker 4: win just because I think it's well. I think it
13:39
Speaker 4: was wider when I first looked into it. But it's
13:42
Speaker 4: goes to a pick and fight. Aldridge is a well
13:45
Speaker 4: rounded fighter. She's good everywhere. She's just not great anywhere.
13:49
Speaker 4: She's also going to be smaller than Horth, less dangerous
13:51
Speaker 4: than Horth, and it's gonna be in Canada, where Horth
13:55
Speaker 4: is from. So the crowd's gonna be on the horse
13:57
Speaker 4: side too, So I just not a lot to like
14:00
Speaker 4: about Alders. Even if she wins, she's probably looking at
14:03
Speaker 4: fifty or sixty points, So I would rather look to
14:05
Speaker 4: other underdogs who I think have higher ceilings in their wins.
14:09
Speaker 4: Fourth has the higher ceiling in the matchup, but eighty
14:12
Speaker 4: nine hundred dollars for am Horth, the only reason you're
14:14
Speaker 4: playing her is because you want to try to win
14:16
Speaker 4: one hundred k solo. Weird shit happens in MMA. Maybe
14:19
Speaker 4: she gets a first round finished and she's on that
14:21
Speaker 4: optimal lineup, But I'm going to x out Horth with
14:25
Speaker 4: limited lineups, and that's just one. I'm going to x
14:27
Speaker 4: out this fight, I think, just with limited lineups, and
14:29
Speaker 4: that'll help me narrow down my player pool if I
14:31
Speaker 4: do have twenty or less, like I typically do.
14:35
Speaker 3: One hundred percent agree the Alder stuff. Like you mentioned,
14:38
Speaker 3: when you see eighty nine hundred seventy three hundred, the
14:40
Speaker 3: odds were definitely wider when you checked earlier. So Porth
14:43
Speaker 3: opened minus three hundred and just on Mondays she was
14:49
Speaker 3: like minus won sixty right around there, So I mean
14:52
Speaker 3: the line is Saturday, she was like minus two hundred,
14:55
Speaker 3: so man Aldric is taking a good amount of money
14:57
Speaker 3: and she's continued to all week.
15:00
Speaker 2: I guess like I have this as a fight fade
15:03
Speaker 2: right now.
15:04
Speaker 3: It feels kind of similar to Castaneda, where you're just
15:06
Speaker 3: playing for a basement score, a floor score in a win.
15:12
Speaker 3: But at seventy three hundred, it's possible that if Barbosa
15:15
Speaker 3: puts up one twenty, we Lot puts up one fifteen
15:18
Speaker 3: jet like so many favorites win and Aldrick is one
15:20
Speaker 3: of the few dogs. The problem with that is looking here,
15:23
Speaker 3: like minus two fifty six isn't too big. Closely line,
15:26
Speaker 3: closely lined, closely line, closely line, closely lined, closely lined,
15:30
Speaker 3: closely lined, closely lined. So dogs are supposed to bark
15:33
Speaker 3: to some extent, and if they do, almost all dogs
15:36
Speaker 3: have more upside. Linport's gonna try and like push it
15:38
Speaker 3: against the cage, make it grindy. So I think I'm
15:41
Speaker 3: back to where I started that it's a fight fade.
15:43
Speaker 3: But if I picked one, it would definitely be Aldrich,
15:45
Speaker 3: just because seventy three hundred maybe sixty gets you all
15:48
Speaker 3: the studs and it's one of the only dogs. But yeah,
15:52
Speaker 3: playable for sure. I was gonna mention one more thing.
15:56
Speaker 3: Oh for Jamie Lynn Hoorth like I kind of like laugh,
15:59
Speaker 3: like maybe playing your her round one prop plus nine hundred,
16:02
Speaker 3: that's ten percent, she might come in twelve percent, thirteen
16:07
Speaker 3: percent in like the large field stuff. So if you
16:10
Speaker 3: want to just go that way, that's kind of what
16:11
Speaker 3: I mentioned.
16:12
Speaker 2: From the top. Pros are playing every.
16:14
Speaker 3: Fighter usually to an extent, in one hundred and fifty teams,
16:17
Speaker 3: and that's the exact reason it's a crazy sport. Random
16:19
Speaker 3: stuff happens, even though it's a plus nine hundred, that
16:22
Speaker 3: happens ten percent of the time. And when that does happen,
16:25
Speaker 3: you have a chance to win a lot. But limited
16:27
Speaker 3: lineups like we usually play, I can't recommend Jamielyn horse
16:31
Speaker 3: all right. Next fight on the card Melissa Crowdon minus
16:34
Speaker 3: one thirty eight Daria zeld Zakova plus one eighteen plus
16:37
Speaker 3: one fifty for this fight to finish, Crodon plus two
16:40
Speaker 3: to twenty inside the distance, zele Nikova plus five hundred.
16:44
Speaker 3: Crodon open minus one fifty got as low as minus
16:46
Speaker 3: two to ten. Zelenikova is taking money throughout the week.
16:50
Speaker 3: This fight also open plus one ada to finish now
16:52
Speaker 3: plus one fifty, so money on the under end. Zel Zakova,
16:56
Speaker 3: how do you see this fight going? Zel In It
17:00
Speaker 3: another one I really just don't care for. I'm not
17:02
Speaker 3: I don't really want to watch it.
17:03
Speaker 4: I'm not against playing it in DFS, but that's just
17:08
Speaker 4: because they're gonna be both low owned, and I think
17:10
Speaker 4: they can both score over ten x in a win.
17:14
Speaker 4: They're both primarily strikers, but it wouldn't shock me it's
17:17
Speaker 4: either one of them land a takedown or two just
17:19
Speaker 4: to target kind of the other's weakness. Croden should be
17:22
Speaker 4: the more likely wrestler on this one, though she's more
17:25
Speaker 4: of the like the grindy type of fighter she's She's
17:28
Speaker 4: sloppy on the feet, but she will push the pace
17:31
Speaker 4: and push forward. I think she's more likely to clinch up,
17:34
Speaker 4: though more likely to go for takedowns. So Lesna Kovie
17:37
Speaker 4: I thought she just looks like the cleaner striker, and
17:41
Speaker 4: in take that I watched, I just wasn't impressed with
17:44
Speaker 4: either one of them, so I said, give me the
17:45
Speaker 4: plus money side of this one. There's no way I'm
17:47
Speaker 4: laying like minus one seventy or whatever it was on
17:50
Speaker 4: Crodin so I picked Selesni Koba as my pick to win.
17:55
Speaker 4: She's also my preferred DFS play too, But this is
17:58
Speaker 4: just one where you're gonna get either one of at
18:00
Speaker 4: probably sub fifteen percent ownership, maybe not the underdog just
18:05
Speaker 4: because she's an underdog, but they're both low level talent,
18:10
Speaker 4: and low level talent can can give up points to
18:13
Speaker 4: the other fighters. So I don't hate it as much
18:15
Speaker 4: in DFS as I do in real life.
18:18
Speaker 2: Hey, I'm in on this fight. I would have like
18:20
Speaker 2: a four star.
18:21
Speaker 3: This is like my This is like my sneaky fight
18:24
Speaker 3: that's gonna be low owned, that it's gonna help me
18:26
Speaker 3: get different, and I'm worried that it might not be
18:30
Speaker 3: as low.
18:30
Speaker 2: Owned as you think.
18:31
Speaker 3: It's gonna be a lowan don't get me wrong, but
18:33
Speaker 3: I think because like you look at Croton's first fight
18:35
Speaker 3: in the UFC, she put up one hundred and twenty
18:37
Speaker 3: three DraftKings points, ninety nine significant strikes, two takedowns, a
18:41
Speaker 3: knockdown control time you mentioned it, like grind me, that's
18:45
Speaker 3: what she is.
18:46
Speaker 2: She'll come forward.
18:46
Speaker 3: I think this has the potential to be a sneaky,
18:48
Speaker 3: high paced fight, and I love to see it open
18:51
Speaker 3: plus one eighty and I'll plus one fifty to finish
18:54
Speaker 3: because other people.
18:54
Speaker 2: Are saying the same.
18:56
Speaker 3: And I think if Croton, like you said, two low
18:58
Speaker 3: level people going at it, if it's a high pace,
19:01
Speaker 3: that's almost like what you want, because one of them
19:03
Speaker 3: might quit earlier, one of them just might be less
19:06
Speaker 3: shitty than the other, whatever it may be. I think
19:08
Speaker 3: Croden can get takedowns, or at least I think she'll
19:11
Speaker 3: try to get takedowns, and if she doesn't have success,
19:14
Speaker 3: I think zeld Zakova will have the advantage on the
19:17
Speaker 3: feet seventy six hundred, Like I feel good about eighty
19:20
Speaker 3: at seventy six hundred this week, I just I think
19:22
Speaker 3: she has outs to probably ninety two. If Crodin is
19:26
Speaker 3: not getting takedowns and she's just coming forward recklessly, I
19:29
Speaker 3: think Daria is the better striker there. And if Croden
19:31
Speaker 3: gets downhill, gets on top, starts wearing on her, I
19:34
Speaker 3: mean points that up in bunches like we've talked about.
19:36
Speaker 3: So I'm in on both sides in eighty six hundred
19:39
Speaker 3: seventy six hundred without ownership too much on either side
19:42
Speaker 3: and the ability to leave money and not loving the
19:45
Speaker 3: mid tier that that much like the Cassaneda fighting Gage
19:48
Speaker 3: Young we already talked about. Yeah, I'm in on this
19:51
Speaker 3: fight at relatively low ownership, so both sides. I want
19:55
Speaker 3: to be overweight too. All right, we'll keep a rolling
19:58
Speaker 3: next fight on the car at heavyweight fights Gocan Siracam
20:01
Speaker 3: minus one forty five taken on Tanner, Boser plus one
20:04
Speaker 3: twenty five Srakam or plus one hunter for this fight
20:08
Speaker 3: to finish, Sakam plus one eighty inside the distance Boser
20:11
Speaker 3: plus three eighty five gets the call back from the UFC. Uh, yeah,
20:16
Speaker 3: kind of weird. He only had one fight outside the UFC,
20:18
Speaker 3: took a little time off. Now he's right back in
20:20
Speaker 3: there closely line fights. Uh so you haveing a three
20:23
Speaker 3: star all the way around. So yeah, what's your take
20:26
Speaker 3: on this one?
20:28
Speaker 4: Yeah, probably just needed another Canadian called out Boser. Uh
20:33
Speaker 4: he's never been anything special, but he'll he'll bring a
20:35
Speaker 4: fun fight. Definite primary striker. He could put up a pace.
20:40
Speaker 4: He can also land a knockout. Not really. I wouldn't
20:43
Speaker 4: say he's a big time one punch power, but I
20:45
Speaker 4: think that the the punches can add up and he's
20:50
Speaker 4: like a more of more of a late knockout type
20:52
Speaker 4: of guy, whereas Sirakum is more powerful with his one punches.
20:57
Speaker 4: He's also our more likely wrestler, and this one, I
21:01
Speaker 4: think he's gonna be lower volume. My mom. I also
21:03
Speaker 4: wasn't too impressed with him either. I could see this
21:06
Speaker 4: being a striking match for fifteen minutes and the winner
21:09
Speaker 4: scorer and sixty five points, or they're big boys. I
21:13
Speaker 4: could see either one of them landing a knockout and
21:15
Speaker 4: score a ninety plus. So I just don't know what
21:17
Speaker 4: to expect in this one. I originally put it as
21:20
Speaker 4: a four star. I do like targeting this one, but
21:23
Speaker 4: I'm picking it to go the distance, and I picked
21:26
Speaker 4: Boser to win, so I feel like sixty five from
21:30
Speaker 4: Bosters our most likely outcome. I'm okay with it, but
21:34
Speaker 4: I don't like it, so I'm gonna more so. I
21:38
Speaker 4: haven't built lineup, so I guess I don't know how
21:40
Speaker 4: much of these underdogs that I'm trying to fade. I'm
21:42
Speaker 4: gonna be able to fade, but maybe you talk me
21:44
Speaker 4: into a little bit more, Daria. I think I am
21:46
Speaker 4: planning on getting some Boster lineups and Sarakam, I mean
21:50
Speaker 4: as a debut guy. You never know what to expect,
21:53
Speaker 4: but I think it's targetable. What do you think.
21:57
Speaker 3: I think you broke it down great in this sense.
21:59
Speaker 3: I feel just like you. I mean, I'm very indifferent
22:02
Speaker 3: to it. But again, when you're comparing the mid tier,
22:04
Speaker 3: I rank it. This next fight, we're talking about Valentine
22:07
Speaker 3: LeBlanc number one. You have it that way to four star,
22:10
Speaker 3: then I have to come to this fight because I
22:12
Speaker 3: like this fight more than Gage, Young Moysis and Volagden
22:15
Speaker 3: Castanada like.
22:17
Speaker 2: That's just what we're working on. That's what we're working
22:20
Speaker 2: with on this card.
22:21
Speaker 3: I don't think you're gonna have six players that are
22:22
Speaker 3: scoring ninety five plus in the winner when it's all
22:25
Speaker 3: said and done with only twelve fights. So Sirocco's might
22:29
Speaker 3: preferred play because I think if someone scoring ninety plus,
22:32
Speaker 3: I feel more likely that it is Siakam because I
22:35
Speaker 3: do think he has the wrestling upside and plus one
22:38
Speaker 3: eighty to finish, Whereas I think more Bosers wins could
22:40
Speaker 3: be in the sixties, stuffing takedowns, just out pointing them,
22:44
Speaker 3: and I mean I would be surprised at Boser won
22:45
Speaker 3: thirty twenty seven. He could do that and still score
22:48
Speaker 3: sixty five points though, just sticking and moving on the outside.
22:52
Speaker 3: So when hunting for upside, that's why I prefer Siakam,
22:55
Speaker 3: but he has eight hundred more when it's all said
22:57
Speaker 3: and done. And yeah, I was I thought this same thing.
23:00
Speaker 3: When I think a Tanner Boser, I don't think a
23:01
Speaker 3: power puncher. But yes, twelve twelve is twenty two. Wins
23:05
Speaker 3: are by knockout and like you said, accumulation of damage
23:08
Speaker 3: and just you're heavy and they're heavy when you connect
23:11
Speaker 3: on the chin and you're lunching forward like you're gonna
23:14
Speaker 3: hurt the other guys. So I don't think it'd be
23:16
Speaker 3: crazy if Boser does knock him out if he stuffs takedown.
23:19
Speaker 3: So an easy way out is saying that I'm gonna
23:21
Speaker 3: be pretty close to the field on both guys three
23:24
Speaker 3: star all the way around. Usually that would be my take,
23:26
Speaker 3: because you don't want this fight to end your night,
23:28
Speaker 3: regardless of the outcome. But Sarakim, I prefer played for upside,
23:33
Speaker 3: indifferent to it at rank at number two of four
23:35
Speaker 3: in the mid tier, but that's not saying much like
23:37
Speaker 3: definitely give me this crowdon Daria fight over boser Siakam
23:42
Speaker 3: for one hundred piece right there, and again it's plus
23:44
Speaker 3: one fifty to finish for the other one and minus
23:47
Speaker 3: one forty for this one.
23:48
Speaker 2: But yes, sometimes that's how it is, all right.
23:52
Speaker 3: Next fight, my favorite mid tier fight, Robert Valentine and
23:56
Speaker 3: Julian LeBlanc. Looking at this one at Valentine minus one
23:59
Speaker 3: fifty Lablank plus one thirty minus two to fifteen for
24:02
Speaker 3: this fight to finish, Valentine minus one oh five inside
24:05
Speaker 3: the distance, LeBlanc plus three hundred. A lot of line
24:08
Speaker 3: movement in this one. Valentine opened plus two ten, so
24:12
Speaker 3: is minus two fifty LeBlanc plus two ten Valentine, and
24:15
Speaker 3: now it is minus one fifty plus one thirty. That
24:19
Speaker 3: is a lot of line movement. And my initial thoughts
24:21
Speaker 3: on this whole card was when I checked, I do
24:24
Speaker 3: all my research, typology, set my own stuff. I didn't
24:27
Speaker 3: know this LeBlanc guy. I just like, all right, naturally,
24:30
Speaker 3: Valentine's a dog. He's owing three in the UFC eleven
24:33
Speaker 3: and six is a pro and I see all this
24:35
Speaker 3: steam on him. So all that told me right away
24:37
Speaker 3: before doing any research is this LeBlanc do must be
24:40
Speaker 3: trash If Valentine's the favorite over you and taking all
24:42
Speaker 3: that money. I don't know what the UFC's doing bringing
24:45
Speaker 3: in this LeBlanc guy. I'm picking Valentine. I think he
24:48
Speaker 3: can get him on the map, put up a big score.
24:50
Speaker 3: You said a couple of fights ago, two bad fighters
24:52
Speaker 3: going at it does not mean it's bad for DFS.
24:55
Speaker 3: I think that's the definition of this one. And if
24:58
Speaker 3: LeBlanc's a little better than we think and Valentine and
25:00
Speaker 3: still cheeks, LeBlanc can put up one hundred and that's
25:03
Speaker 3: surely optimal at seventy nine hundred, So crazy to say
25:06
Speaker 3: this will be one of my highest owned fights on
25:08
Speaker 3: the card mid tier minus two fifteen to finish two,
25:11
Speaker 3: which comes out to number three I believe most likely
25:14
Speaker 3: to finish. So yeah, LeBlanc is my thoughts exactly. But man,
25:19
Speaker 3: this is a This is gonna be funny, I think,
25:21
Speaker 3: how do you see it?
25:22
Speaker 4: Yeah? Lebronc is not very good. Sloppy striker, lots of kicks,
25:28
Speaker 4: some decent knees. I guess when he gets in close
25:30
Speaker 4: he can hurt some people if he lands a kicker
25:33
Speaker 4: or knee, but really sloppy punches. And Valentine he's looked
25:38
Speaker 4: like crapping the UFC too, But pre UFC, I was
25:41
Speaker 4: pretty impressed with some of his film. He's got some
25:44
Speaker 4: nasty submissions. I thought his striking was more impressive or
25:49
Speaker 4: more clean, I guess, than leblancs. If this is a
25:51
Speaker 4: striking match, it's not going to be a fun fight.
25:53
Speaker 4: But Valentine, I think his grappling is the best part
25:58
Speaker 4: of this entire fight, and he could submit LeBlanc. I
26:02
Speaker 4: think in any round give me Valentine as my favorite
26:06
Speaker 4: play of all those people you talked about. I'm gonna
26:08
Speaker 4: take him by submission. But I am worried about just
26:11
Speaker 4: both these guys sucking and it going to a decision
26:14
Speaker 4: and not scoring with it all.
26:16
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, it can like I'm not going to
26:18
Speaker 3: be all in this fight, but at least it's plus
26:20
Speaker 3: one seventy five for that to happen instead of like
26:24
Speaker 3: I mean, two of the other ones are expected to
26:26
Speaker 3: go the distance. The boser fights like a coin flip.
26:28
Speaker 3: This fight did go though, from minus two to fifty
26:31
Speaker 3: to finish to minus two to fifteen, so the over
26:33
Speaker 3: has taken money and if it does go the distance,
26:36
Speaker 3: it's probably gross on the feet and not scoring much,
26:39
Speaker 3: which will lead me to some stars and scrubs lineup fully.
26:42
Speaker 3: And when I do go full stars and scrubs, I
26:44
Speaker 3: think is when JJ Aldrich becomes even more in play
26:47
Speaker 3: for me. Since I'm just saying all four of these
26:49
Speaker 3: mid tier fights winner scores seventy something, you pick their
26:53
Speaker 3: winners right up top, and the heck, maybe even thirty
26:56
Speaker 3: eight in a loss is better at seventy three hundred,
26:59
Speaker 3: then sixty and a win at eighty four hundred, just
27:02
Speaker 3: with what the upper tier does. And the more I'm
27:05
Speaker 3: thinking about this card, yeah, it can. It can get nuts,
27:07
Speaker 3: so I would try not to hold hands with too
27:10
Speaker 3: many people on a card like this. I think it's
27:11
Speaker 3: a very high variance card like most is, and a
27:14
Speaker 3: lot of closely line fights, so underdogs should be barking
27:17
Speaker 3: to an extent. I Valentin listed number one in the
27:20
Speaker 3: mid tier. I have LeBlanc in my opinion listed number two,
27:23
Speaker 3: so by far my favorite. Though to target next fight.
27:27
Speaker 3: We have the biggest favorites on the card highest price.
27:29
Speaker 3: We're Mauricio Barbosa minus four to fifty, Dennis Bizukia plus
27:35
Speaker 3: three fifty, Barbosa minus four to fifty or excuse me,
27:39
Speaker 3: minus seven hundred for this fight to finish Barbosa minus
27:42
Speaker 3: three to fifty inside the distance Bizukia plus five hundred
27:45
Speaker 3: Barbosa round one minus one ten. I almost wisp wish
27:49
Speaker 3: Barbosa was like ninety seven hundred, ninety six hundred. Man,
27:53
Speaker 3: He's in a tier of his own for money line,
27:55
Speaker 3: for finish prop and to finish in round one minus
27:59
Speaker 3: one ten. If he gets around one finish, I think
28:01
Speaker 3: you will sign up for that all day long. On
28:04
Speaker 3: this card at ninety four hundreds, so I like it
28:06
Speaker 3: a lot. I think ownership will be there though, which
28:09
Speaker 3: then kind of brings Bazuka back into play for a
28:12
Speaker 3: leverage play, and if he wins, the fight is obviously
28:15
Speaker 3: supposed to finish pretty early.
28:16
Speaker 2: So yeah, what are your thoughts on this one? Yeah?
28:19
Speaker 4: Good, good one to target because of Barbosa's just wild
28:23
Speaker 4: and reckless style. I mean, this guy's nasty. He's got
28:26
Speaker 4: some mean, dangerous hooks, big time one punch power, like
28:30
Speaker 4: he could put Bazuka to sleep, like for for minutes probably,
28:36
Speaker 4: And that's why I'm picking it happen, is him to
28:37
Speaker 4: get a knockout, just land some big time hook in
28:39
Speaker 4: the first round because he is going to be walking forward,
28:42
Speaker 4: hunting him down, trying to land that knockout shot. But
28:45
Speaker 4: he's also like willing to eat some shots to give
28:48
Speaker 4: that knockout blow. He doesn't really care about defense too much,
28:52
Speaker 4: and that could lead to him getting knocked out really
28:55
Speaker 4: in any round. I think the longer this fight goes,
28:58
Speaker 4: the more it could play to Bazuka's favor minute wise.
29:02
Speaker 4: But Bazuka could knock him out in any round just
29:06
Speaker 4: because of that lack of defense on the Barboso side.
29:11
Speaker 4: I just don't know that it's gonna get there. I
29:12
Speaker 4: feel like that one of those he's just not gonna
29:15
Speaker 4: like the punches and they're gonna be coming at him early.
29:17
Speaker 4: And I think the UFC probably wants Barbosa to win
29:20
Speaker 4: this fight. I think he could be a fan favorite
29:23
Speaker 4: type of style. So again, I'm gonna bet on the
29:26
Speaker 4: UFC being right. Give me Barbosa first, right, I'm.
29:29
Speaker 3: Not going, yeah, Barbosa is knocking him out. How much, Bozuka,
29:32
Speaker 3: are you gonna have twenty teams? How much would you play.
29:35
Speaker 4: More than Aldridge? I think I'd rather take Aldridge down
29:39
Speaker 4: to Bozuka. But if I have twenty teams two or three.
29:45
Speaker 3: I didn't even say from the top, and I almost
29:47
Speaker 3: kind of feel bad over here at disservice, Big Marley.
29:50
Speaker 3: I know probably many, no, but not all know had
29:53
Speaker 3: a great week last week, took down the qualifier, took
29:56
Speaker 3: down some other stuff, Like I said, a lot of
29:57
Speaker 3: Shipping Nation members did well, and man, he needed Alberg
30:01
Speaker 3: at the end. Do you want to tell the little
30:03
Speaker 3: story that you were telling me that I'm still laughing about.
30:08
Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, I was actually on vacation, and I
30:10
Speaker 4: mean it was a good night. I was texting you.
30:11
Speaker 4: I was like, dude, do I hedge out here? I
30:13
Speaker 4: had a little bit too many beers. I don't know
30:15
Speaker 4: what the heck to do, but I have no money
30:17
Speaker 4: on Jerry and I got all this money I got
30:19
Speaker 4: bets I got I could win this if Olberg wins.
30:22
Speaker 4: And then I ended up hedging a little bit on
30:24
Speaker 4: Jerry Yerie and uh. When I saw the the ACL
30:31
Speaker 4: get blown, I was like, there's no freaking way. And
30:34
Speaker 4: I watched for like two more seconds. He's like falling
30:36
Speaker 4: over and I turn it off and then I like
30:39
Speaker 4: start I start walking up the stairs and I get
30:41
Speaker 4: a text from you, like let's fucking go. I'm like, no, wait,
30:43
Speaker 4: there's no why, and I like turn on Twitter real
30:46
Speaker 4: quick and I see him get knocked out.
30:48
Speaker 3: Yeah.
30:48
Speaker 4: I was not expecting to wait. And it was like
30:51
Speaker 4: one of those I don't think that's ever happened where
30:53
Speaker 4: I turned it off and then I win, Like that's
30:55
Speaker 4: uh my weirdest sweat. I guess it was really fun
30:59
Speaker 4: lea enough to didn't you feel like a sweat? Kind
31:01
Speaker 4: of just felt like how the night was supposed to go.
31:03
Speaker 4: I only had four lineups, felt like I already had
31:05
Speaker 4: the nuts, didn't need to build anymore. But I wish
31:08
Speaker 4: I had some more luke K because I picked him
31:09
Speaker 4: to win if I if I did make one fifty,
31:13
Speaker 4: I'm confident I would have split with that guy. But
31:16
Speaker 4: I wasn't gonna make one fifty on that.
31:18
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean yeah, so Big Marley we're texting and
31:20
Speaker 3: all that, and Big Marley goes, wow, blown ACL, and
31:24
Speaker 3: my phone's down. When I watched the fights, I'm not
31:26
Speaker 3: trying to because yeah, we were talking about the hedge
31:29
Speaker 3: in between, and then I usually put him down while
31:31
Speaker 3: bone ACL and I didn't even like I texted, holy shit,
31:34
Speaker 3: dude in sanity.
31:35
Speaker 2: What a sweat he goes. Oh my gosh, I turned
31:37
Speaker 2: it off.
31:38
Speaker 3: That was just going crazy as all this money live
31:40
Speaker 3: final ten thousand dollars seats or at least what it's
31:43
Speaker 3: worth all that. I've never imagined turning off a fight,
31:47
Speaker 3: but I mean, yeah, it's Yuri just absolutely gave it away.
31:50
Speaker 2: Holk it. What fight was amazing.
31:51
Speaker 3: Paula Costa fight Padilla early on against Madero's like that
31:56
Speaker 3: card was so so good. So yeah, my bad. I
31:59
Speaker 3: should have said a congress. That's right from the get go.
32:01
Speaker 3: I said, congrats, a lot of members, a lot of
32:03
Speaker 3: good screenshots. You were one of them getting a final seat.
32:06
Speaker 3: So good stuff right there. Hopefully we can keep it rolling.
32:09
Speaker 3: Next fight on the card, mid tier fight we kind
32:12
Speaker 3: of talked about that we didn't like much. Gay Young
32:14
Speaker 3: minus one fifty five Thiago Moyses plus one thirty five
32:17
Speaker 3: plus one fifteen for this fight to finish, Gaye Young
32:20
Speaker 3: plus two to thirty five inside the distance Moyses plus
32:23
Speaker 3: three twenty five. This fight is open plus one thirty
32:26
Speaker 3: to finish now plus one fifteen. Gaye Young opened the
32:29
Speaker 3: underdog at plus one eleven, now finds himself as a
32:32
Speaker 3: minus one fifty five favorites. You mentioned earlier, Moyses, would
32:36
Speaker 3: you be your preferred side?
32:37
Speaker 2: So yeah, why is that? What do you think happens
32:40
Speaker 2: in this fight?
32:41
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, I don't know what happens, but I
32:43
Speaker 4: think the most talented fighter in the biggest edge in
32:48
Speaker 4: this fight is going to be Moises' is grappling, so
32:51
Speaker 4: mission grappling, just overall and grappling. I think he could
32:55
Speaker 4: look like a minus four hundred favorite in this one
32:57
Speaker 4: if he was smart, had a good game and a
33:00
Speaker 4: good coaching. Whatever his problem is, I don't know why,
33:03
Speaker 4: Like he just refuses to wrestle sometimes, but he's a
33:06
Speaker 4: really good grappler and he's dangerous on the ground too.
33:08
Speaker 4: I think he could dominate Young in this fight, but
33:13
Speaker 4: he also might not land one single takedown, and I
33:16
Speaker 4: think Young's a better striker. I also think Young is
33:19
Speaker 4: the better wrestler, so he could maybe use his wrestling
33:22
Speaker 4: to keep it on the feet. Moist isn't a good wrestler,
33:26
Speaker 4: but if he attempts to wrestle, I feel like he
33:28
Speaker 4: could drag Young to the ground and just have his
33:31
Speaker 4: way with him and submit him in the first round.
33:33
Speaker 4: Score one hundred hundred and five hundred and ten points,
33:36
Speaker 4: possibly depending on how long he's on the ground, as
33:39
Speaker 4: long as it's not too quick of a submission and
33:41
Speaker 4: after the first minute. But I do like moist Is
33:44
Speaker 4: for that reason, but I just don't trust him to wrestle.
33:47
Speaker 4: Also don't think he's a good enough wrestler to consistently wrestle.
33:51
Speaker 4: It's more targeting him for that first round submission equity.
33:56
Speaker 4: But I'm picking Young to keep this fight on the
33:58
Speaker 4: feet and win a striking match, probably not even score
34:01
Speaker 4: ten x, So that's why I have it as a
34:03
Speaker 4: two star. But I think it's got potential to score
34:06
Speaker 4: well on either side Young, just because Moises isn't a striker,
34:10
Speaker 4: and if he could keep it there, I think he
34:11
Speaker 4: could knock him out. He could also land some piece
34:13
Speaker 4: of volume, but I think he'll be worried about that
34:16
Speaker 4: takedown and he's not going to land that much volume.
34:20
Speaker 4: So I think the most likely optimal side is Moises.
34:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't argue anything.
34:26
Speaker 3: Tierram Moyses is always the guy that I want to
34:29
Speaker 3: back because you just see such high highs from him,
34:33
Speaker 3: like you mentioned, I mean the Michael Johnson.
34:35
Speaker 2: The fight's not going his way.
34:36
Speaker 3: It gets to the ground, he grabs an ankle, he
34:38
Speaker 3: turns over Johnson taps quickly like he always has the
34:40
Speaker 3: quick out to just grab something in the fight be done,
34:44
Speaker 3: which obviously scores. But man, he just cannot figure out
34:47
Speaker 3: how to get takedowns or at least like go for
34:49
Speaker 3: that game plan, so then he can't get it to
34:51
Speaker 3: his best spot, which is the mat. Then on the
34:53
Speaker 3: feed he's pretty much he's so short. I guess that
34:56
Speaker 3: these guys are the same height and reach, but he
34:58
Speaker 3: doesn't use his distance well and he just relies on kicks,
35:01
Speaker 3: which he does have good light kicks, But I think
35:04
Speaker 3: Gage Young has the upside to counter those naked light
35:07
Speaker 3: clicks and then kicks and put him out Like plus
35:09
Speaker 3: two thirty five is twenty nine point nine percent for
35:12
Speaker 3: a finish for Gage Young. For that reason, he is
35:15
Speaker 3: my preferred play, but a third round knockout might not
35:18
Speaker 3: be enough. It might be I would take it at
35:20
Speaker 3: eighty four hundred, but I think the pace will be
35:23
Speaker 3: slow on the feed. I don't think he's gonna wrestle.
35:25
Speaker 3: I don't think Dragon moists to the ground would be smart.
35:28
Speaker 3: So yeah, then maybe I was thinking Young was my
35:30
Speaker 3: preferred play for the upside because I think it he
35:34
Speaker 3: I think he knocks out Moises more than Moises gets
35:36
Speaker 3: like those eighty five plus points, But when Moisis does
35:40
Speaker 3: seventy eight hundred, it goes a lot further. So I've
35:42
Speaker 3: kind of torn on this one again. I know, I
35:44
Speaker 3: just don't like it too much. I prefer Valentine LeBlanc
35:47
Speaker 3: a lot more, and then I prefer like Crodon Daria
35:51
Speaker 3: Right here, I prefer to Rakam over Young.
35:56
Speaker 2: Ah Man Boser.
35:57
Speaker 3: Moises is tough, Moisus has a better finishing property wants
36:00
Speaker 3: to get it to the ground, So maybe moyst is
36:02
Speaker 3: over Boser. But again we're comparing a really tough mid tier.
36:06
Speaker 3: I'm talking more of it out because going from thirteen
36:08
Speaker 3: fights not Cementor Orposo down to twelve does change a
36:11
Speaker 3: lot more than you think when you're thinking of what
36:15
Speaker 3: scores would be acceptable from like certain fighters on a
36:18
Speaker 3: card like this. So I don't love this fight. I
36:21
Speaker 3: think Young Se might prefer play because plus two to
36:23
Speaker 3: thirty five to finish is good and his inside the
36:25
Speaker 3: distance prop has been going the right way. Moisus has
36:28
Speaker 3: been going the wrong way. But yeah, moysus. If he
36:30
Speaker 3: gets it to the mat, he could look like a
36:32
Speaker 3: big favorite. Like you said, all right, we'll keep it
36:35
Speaker 3: rolling to another person. If they get it to the mat,
36:38
Speaker 3: like Jasmine can, she can put up a big score.
36:40
Speaker 3: And she has minus three hundred taken on Kreeene Silva,
36:43
Speaker 3: who's plus two to fifty plus one eighty for this
36:46
Speaker 3: fight to finish Jasmine plus three fifty inside the distance
36:50
Speaker 3: this fights plus one eighty to finish Jasmine plus three
36:52
Speaker 3: fifty inside the distance Silva plus three seventy five this
36:56
Speaker 3: fight open plus two hundred to finish now plus one eight.
37:00
Speaker 3: So the under is taking some money. Jasmine open minus
37:03
Speaker 3: two to fifty favorite now minus three hundreds, so little
37:06
Speaker 3: money on the under money on Jasmine. Do you think
37:09
Speaker 3: she just dominates the wrestling against Silva? Can Silva get
37:12
Speaker 3: a take or submission off her back? Because I do
37:15
Speaker 3: think she will almost accept takedowns and then just try
37:17
Speaker 3: and throw whatever she can up.
37:21
Speaker 4: I mean I think she could, I don't know how
37:23
Speaker 4: likely it is with her in like a I mean
37:27
Speaker 4: off her back. I think more of a dominant position
37:29
Speaker 4: would be good, or if she's like grabbing a neck
37:31
Speaker 4: off a takedown, but yeah, it's Jasmine's wrestling. I'm always
37:37
Speaker 4: into Jasmine for dfs because of her style. She's a
37:40
Speaker 4: high paced wrestler. She can rack up, you know, three
37:43
Speaker 4: to six takedowns in any given matchup, so I do
37:47
Speaker 4: like her. I'm gonna like her here for sure. But
37:49
Speaker 4: Silva is the more dangerous fighter in this one. If
37:52
Speaker 4: she can get a submission on the ground, that's gonna
37:54
Speaker 4: score no matter what round it's in, probably enough, but
37:59
Speaker 4: she's also the better I think he's also the more
38:01
Speaker 4: dangerous striker. She could finish JJ anywhere. So at seven
38:05
Speaker 4: K I think Silva has a good chance at the
38:09
Speaker 4: optimal lineup if she wins the fight, right, I think
38:12
Speaker 4: she's gonna be on her back for most of the fight,
38:15
Speaker 4: and I'm picking JJ to win a unanimous decision and
38:20
Speaker 4: still score over ninety points. I think she also has
38:24
Speaker 4: the most one hundred and twenty point upside on the card,
38:29
Speaker 4: so I'm definitely gonna be on the JJ side, But
38:32
Speaker 4: that's gonna put me on more Silva than I would
38:35
Speaker 4: want to. Just as a pure hedge.
38:39
Speaker 3: I have nothing to argue, like Jasmine's gonna want you
38:41
Speaker 3: to take down Silva's poor takedown defense. I think she
38:44
Speaker 3: has success, even though if it's like you almost want
38:47
Speaker 3: her fights almost to go the distance, to get the
38:49
Speaker 3: full fifteen minutes of wrestling control time. And I do
38:52
Speaker 3: think Silva's gonna try and be squirmy, throw up submissions
38:57
Speaker 3: and all of that, which could lead to Jazz been
38:59
Speaker 3: getting more advantage positions to maybe get a finish or
39:02
Speaker 3: just do a lot of damage and not just lay
39:03
Speaker 3: and pray. So yeah, I definitely like Jasmine. The problem is,
39:08
Speaker 3: it's not a problem. It's actually kind of good, especially
39:10
Speaker 3: if you like Jasmine that much. But Lot ninety three hundred,
39:13
Speaker 3: Barbosa ninety four hundred. If you go Barbosa teams just
39:17
Speaker 3: go to Jasmine. Even a lot people always like the
39:19
Speaker 3: five rounds, they go right to Jasmine. That is a
39:21
Speaker 3: way you can get a little different if you want
39:23
Speaker 3: to take it a step further, And I will be
39:25
Speaker 3: doing this. Saraj in the first fight, he wants to
39:28
Speaker 3: get it.
39:28
Speaker 2: To the match.
39:29
Speaker 3: He wants to wrestle, he wants to grapple. So I
39:31
Speaker 3: think Saraj all four of these I wouldn't be surprised
39:34
Speaker 3: if any of them were the highest scores on the slate.
39:37
Speaker 3: And obviously lowess owned. The cheapest is Saraj, so that
39:41
Speaker 3: checks a lot of boxes. Jasmine probably the third lowest
39:45
Speaker 3: own of the top three and the cheapest, so leaving
39:48
Speaker 3: money and Jasmine's gonna get ownership. But a little ownership
39:52
Speaker 3: discount can eliminate some dupes. When it's all said and done,
39:55
Speaker 3: I'll be playing some silver two for sure. Seven K
39:57
Speaker 3: if Jasmine can't get take downs if she does get
40:00
Speaker 3: on top, which I don't expect you to out wrestle Jasmine,
40:03
Speaker 3: but I don't think a submission off for backs. Maybe
40:05
Speaker 3: the craziest thing Silva is dangerous. I do think Jasmine
40:08
Speaker 3: rolls in this one though. Three fights left. To appreciate
40:13
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41:29
Speaker 3: to this. Three fights left. We got Mandel Nalo taken
41:34
Speaker 3: on Ji Herbert's now minus one seventy Herbert plus one
41:38
Speaker 3: forty five minus two hundred for this fight to finish No.
41:42
Speaker 3: Minus one twenty inside a distance Herbert plus four five man.
41:46
Speaker 3: Herbert has been so disappointing as of like just boring fights.
41:50
Speaker 3: As you can see three point h seven significant strikes
41:52
Speaker 3: per minute point four to three takedowns per fifteen. I'll
41:56
Speaker 3: always think of Ji Herbert and his head kick knock
41:58
Speaker 3: down against Ilia in an insane fight when Elia went
42:01
Speaker 3: up to one fifty five.
42:03
Speaker 2: But he just wants to bounce around the outside, make
42:06
Speaker 2: it boring. Canalo push the pace and make this a
42:09
Speaker 2: fun fight? Yeah?
42:12
Speaker 4: I mean, I'm I'm I like this fight because of
42:14
Speaker 4: the Nallo side he is. I mean, he's a finisher.
42:19
Speaker 4: I think he's finished all of his wins and he's
42:21
Speaker 4: he can finish it on the feet or the ground.
42:23
Speaker 4: He's going to be the more well rounded all around fighter,
42:27
Speaker 4: and he's he's kind of wild and unpredictable and he's
42:30
Speaker 4: dangerous when you wouldn't expect, like some of his punches,
42:33
Speaker 4: you wouldn't think it's gonna knock the guy out clean,
42:35
Speaker 4: but they land hard. So I do like the Nailo
42:39
Speaker 4: side of this. But Herbert's a really good striker. Him,
42:43
Speaker 4: He's a he's like a. He's a tactician. On the feet,
42:46
Speaker 4: he is good, and the longer it goes, the more
42:48
Speaker 4: he's gonna start to read Nallo And I think he's
42:51
Speaker 4: live for a knockout in any round. But you are,
42:55
Speaker 4: you're playing for the knockout. You need all those bonus
42:58
Speaker 4: points from the knockout. You need the knockdown too, And
43:02
Speaker 4: if he doesn't get it, he's just not gonna score well.
43:05
Speaker 4: He is a low output fighter. He's gonna be trying
43:07
Speaker 4: not to get hit. He's got a porchin, so he's
43:10
Speaker 4: gonna be on his bike trying to stay on the
43:12
Speaker 4: outside and not get taken down, not get knocked out.
43:16
Speaker 4: But he could knock out Nalo just with one kick
43:19
Speaker 4: at any moment in this fight, and I think that
43:22
Speaker 4: puts him in play at seventy four hundred. So I'll
43:24
Speaker 4: have Herbert lineups, but my preferred play is Nalo. I
43:27
Speaker 4: think he's another he will get ownership, but he is
43:32
Speaker 4: another kind of great play away from those more owned guys.
43:36
Speaker 4: Are fighters that we already talked about on the card,
43:38
Speaker 4: and I think Nalo would be one of my higher
43:41
Speaker 4: owned fighters on the card, and similar to Silva, that's
43:45
Speaker 4: gonna put me on a little bit more Herbert as
43:47
Speaker 4: a pure edge.
43:49
Speaker 2: All that makes sense.
43:50
Speaker 3: I mean Nalo one of the best round one props
43:53
Speaker 3: open plus two fifty now plus two to twenty five.
43:56
Speaker 3: That's thirty percent thirty point eight percent to be exact
43:59
Speaker 3: for him to win and right on one.
44:00
Speaker 2: That just shows I mean he can outscore him a lot.
44:03
Speaker 3: Barbo said, Jasmine, you name it, so I'm definitely gonna
44:06
Speaker 3: play Nalo.
44:07
Speaker 2: He's a finisher, like you said, he'll push the pace.
44:09
Speaker 3: But the reason I have a and it's minus two
44:11
Speaker 3: hundred for the fight to finish the Herbert side, like
44:13
Speaker 3: I mentioned, it's just he wants to dance around. He
44:16
Speaker 3: wants to light kick, jab pick you or like make
44:18
Speaker 3: you make a mistake, which Nawo could do if he
44:21
Speaker 3: gets If he overextends himself, one counter from Jai could
44:24
Speaker 3: put him away. It's just, man, do I really want
44:27
Speaker 3: to bet on just like you have to get a
44:29
Speaker 3: knockout because even if he wins a decision, I'm not
44:32
Speaker 3: gonna love it twenty percent for him to get a
44:35
Speaker 3: finish seventy four hundred, maybe I'll have like ten percent
44:38
Speaker 3: or something fifteen, Like I'm gonna play a little bit,
44:41
Speaker 3: but I don't want to go overweight GI I want
44:43
Speaker 3: I want good amount of Nalo though, and I'd be
44:45
Speaker 3: fine Mike Mallott all the way down to Nalo and
44:47
Speaker 3: leave five hundred. You're sacrificing a five round favorite. You're
44:51
Speaker 3: giving up money, line value. I'm good with it when
44:53
Speaker 3: it's all set and down, because when we get to
44:55
Speaker 3: the main event, I think my lot could get a
44:57
Speaker 3: second or third round knockout and not score enough at
45:00
Speaker 3: very high ownership.
45:01
Speaker 2: So yeah, i'man on Nallo.
45:03
Speaker 3: I don't love Herbert, but there's worst plays out there.
45:07
Speaker 2: CO main event time.
45:08
Speaker 3: Very interesting one for DFS because we've had a lot
45:11
Speaker 3: of line movement in it. Charles Jordaane minus one thirty
45:14
Speaker 3: Cayler Phillips plus one ten plus one twenty for this
45:16
Speaker 3: fight to finish, Jordaane plus two forty inside the distance,
45:19
Speaker 3: Phillips plus three twenty five. Charles Jordaane open minus one
45:24
Speaker 3: seventy got as low as like Here's minus one seventy
45:28
Speaker 3: one on Monday, now finds himself as minus one thirty favorites.
45:32
Speaker 3: Phillip's taking money and what people are going to see
45:35
Speaker 3: is a twelve hundred dollars price difference. I think Phillips
45:38
Speaker 3: is gonna get steam. We know the story with Cayler
45:41
Speaker 3: Phillips is it's rare to see him as an underdog.
45:43
Speaker 2: It's weird.
45:44
Speaker 3: He's very talented, but yeah, he cannot manage his cardio
45:47
Speaker 3: for fifteen minutes. So who do you think wins this one?
45:50
Speaker 3: And how do you think they win it?
45:52
Speaker 4: Yeah? I'm betting myself for not or kicking myself for
45:55
Speaker 4: not betting Phillips. When I looked at this on Sunday,
45:58
Speaker 4: I was like, man, this line is definitely too wide.
46:02
Speaker 4: And I even said in my breakdown that I think
46:04
Speaker 4: it's too wide because it's coming off of two losses.
46:07
Speaker 4: Had this fight happened before those two losses, I feel
46:10
Speaker 4: like the line would have been flipped.
46:11
Speaker 3: I mean, like minus two hundred books.
46:16
Speaker 2: Books.
46:16
Speaker 3: Books loved Kyler Phillips like it always just loved everything
46:20
Speaker 3: about every single fight he was in. It felt like
46:23
Speaker 3: a little crazy, but man, it's been someone.
46:26
Speaker 2: That they've they've really liked. For sure.
46:28
Speaker 3: You can find those teams in all sports where you
46:30
Speaker 3: just think they over certain books or whatever, overvalue certain things.
46:34
Speaker 3: I think Kyler Phillips is one of them, which is
46:35
Speaker 3: why I was surprised to see him this big of
46:38
Speaker 3: a dog. But yeah, people are he was that big
46:40
Speaker 3: of a dog. People are figuring it out now.
46:44
Speaker 4: Yeah, And I mean I'm picking Phillips to win. I
46:47
Speaker 4: like that he had the plus next to his name.
46:49
Speaker 4: I mean, now that the line is closed up, he's
46:51
Speaker 4: going to get a lot of ownership. Jordain's gonna possibly
46:54
Speaker 4: be under owned. Jordaine could knock him out in any round.
46:58
Speaker 4: He could also submit them in any but I think
47:01
Speaker 4: that Phillips is the better wrestler. I also think Phillips
47:04
Speaker 4: is the higher paced fighter in the first round, possibly
47:08
Speaker 4: the second round too, but he slows down because of
47:11
Speaker 4: his style. He can wrestle at a decent pace, but
47:13
Speaker 4: he also uses like a lot of unnecessary movement, like
47:16
Speaker 4: some spinning stuff that he doesn't need to throw. But
47:20
Speaker 4: by the time he hits the third round, after he's
47:21
Speaker 4: done all that wrestling and all the movement on the feet,
47:24
Speaker 4: he's definitely gonna be at a slower pace, and Jordayne
47:27
Speaker 4: should still be at the fine, you know pace he
47:30
Speaker 4: was at in the first and second round. The third
47:32
Speaker 4: round would probably favorite Jordayne here and I'm giving it
47:35
Speaker 4: to Phillips twenty nine to twenty eight. Hopefully he already
47:38
Speaker 4: has done enough. At seventy five hundred, I would think
47:40
Speaker 4: that he's gonna be fine. He's gonna score more than
47:42
Speaker 4: ten x here, But Jordayne eighty seven hundred, I think
47:45
Speaker 4: you're gonna need a finish to score not only over
47:49
Speaker 4: ten x, but to make the optimal lineup over all
47:52
Speaker 4: those big favorites and not Low and Valentine. So I'm
47:56
Speaker 4: just not gonna get maybe any Jordaane or less lineups
48:00
Speaker 4: and just really take my stand on Phillips here. He'll
48:03
Speaker 4: be my my favorite underdog on the car.
48:07
Speaker 3: He's mine too, but I think he's everyone, So then
48:10
Speaker 3: that kind of makes me a little more reserved. Like
48:13
Speaker 3: if we're talking thirty five percent Kyler Phillips and tournaments,
48:16
Speaker 3: I think that's a little high, and that could be
48:19
Speaker 3: the case, and i'd want to find pivots Jordaan. Yet
48:22
Speaker 3: it's kind of tough because I don't think you're gonna
48:24
Speaker 3: wrestle in this one. He could spend time off his back.
48:27
Speaker 3: But if you go, like I always like taking it
48:29
Speaker 3: from you, what's his inside of this is probably plus
48:31
Speaker 3: two forty what's plus two forty twenty nine percent twenty
48:35
Speaker 3: nine percent versus his ownership, which might be high teens
48:38
Speaker 3: if you just want to look at it that way
48:40
Speaker 3: like a math problem. He could be under own And
48:42
Speaker 3: then if Phillips does lose, a lot of people go
48:45
Speaker 3: down with the ship that way. So that's gonna be
48:50
Speaker 3: that's gonna that's gonna be one I have to think
48:52
Speaker 3: about more and more to be honest, at this point,
48:54
Speaker 3: instead of being a minus one thirty favorite, I almost
48:57
Speaker 3: wanted to be minus one ten. So ownership just gets
48:59
Speaker 3: even farther on the Phillips side and less on the
49:02
Speaker 3: Jordayne side, and then I'm just getting maximum leverage. So yeah,
49:06
Speaker 3: I'm gonna play some Jordayine when I play him, I'm
49:08
Speaker 3: probably playing like a Mike Mallott or I'm probably playing
49:11
Speaker 3: the Valentine Fight. I'm doing something pretty chalky that he's
49:14
Speaker 3: the reason I'm doing it. But I'm gonna play Phillips
49:16
Speaker 3: and find ways to get different with them. Play my lot,
49:19
Speaker 3: drop them down to Saraj, plug in Castaneda, drop them
49:23
Speaker 3: down to Giannis. Like you said, just random stuff like
49:26
Speaker 3: that is how I will be playing Kyler Phillips teams
49:28
Speaker 3: because he could win a decision and score ninety like
49:31
Speaker 3: he has a good outpit, he can wrestle, and that's
49:34
Speaker 3: what you want for a seventy five hundred dollars dog
49:37
Speaker 3: main event time. Yeah, I appreciate everyone supports. Very interesting
49:41
Speaker 3: one that also had a lot of line movement. So
49:43
Speaker 3: Mike Malott opened minus three thirty five. A day later
49:47
Speaker 3: was minus six hundred and stayed there for about a
49:50
Speaker 3: week before it went minus five hundred, minus four twenty five,
49:54
Speaker 3: minus three seventy five, and Gilbert Burns has continued to
49:57
Speaker 3: take money all week now minus two to seventy or
50:00
Speaker 3: minus two seventies A lot plus two thirty is Burns
50:03
Speaker 3: minus five hundred for this fight to finish lot minus
50:06
Speaker 3: two to forty inside the distance, Burns plus four hundred
50:09
Speaker 3: a lot in round one plus two thirty five. All
50:13
Speaker 3: I'll say is like, I think you can fade this fight.
50:15
Speaker 3: I don't think I'll come to you and ask how
50:17
Speaker 3: much you think my lot wrestles. But Burns like Chamaia
50:20
Speaker 3: didn't even wrestle. Gilbert Burns like the jiu jitsu and
50:23
Speaker 3: all that. I think the easiest path is a lot
50:25
Speaker 3: striking Burns chin is questionable, but what if it goes
50:28
Speaker 3: out in round three? Is a lot round three knockout enough?
50:32
Speaker 3: I mean, I'll take a chances. It's not at ownership,
50:34
Speaker 3: so I will not have one hundred percent of this fight.
50:37
Speaker 3: I think multiple big or multiple high price fighters like
50:40
Speaker 3: we talked about have upside. Now, if Gilbert Burns wins,
50:43
Speaker 3: it's very hard to see him not being optimal. So
50:46
Speaker 3: it's really just pivots in the upper tier. When I'm
50:49
Speaker 3: fading this fight, it's not pivots off of Gilbert Burns. Yeah,
50:52
Speaker 3: what do you see in this fight?
50:53
Speaker 1: How?
50:54
Speaker 2: How do you see it going? Yeah?
50:56
Speaker 4: I agree with everything you said. I don't think you
50:58
Speaker 4: have to target it. I don't think a lot wrestles
51:01
Speaker 4: in this one, not really at all. I don't think
51:03
Speaker 4: he will be looking wrestle unless Burns is gassed out.
51:06
Speaker 4: I do think he could be safe in top control,
51:10
Speaker 4: but Burns is the more dangerous grappler in this one.
51:13
Speaker 4: The line was too wide for sure. Now it's definitely
51:18
Speaker 4: about right. I mean maybe even on the mall lot
51:20
Speaker 4: side at this point in Canada, this is one the
51:22
Speaker 4: UFC wants him to win, but it's just not gonna
51:25
Speaker 4: be that easy. Like Burns is a good striker, but
51:27
Speaker 4: he has a weak chant. He's also declining for sure,
51:30
Speaker 4: he's at the end of his career. A lot's gonna
51:33
Speaker 4: be the better striker, the more aggressles striker way more
51:35
Speaker 4: dangerous early, and then he's also gonna have the better
51:39
Speaker 4: tank the longer this fight goes. I would imagine too,
51:42
Speaker 4: with Burns at thirty nine years old, I don't really
51:43
Speaker 4: know what his motivations like at this point. So I'm
51:47
Speaker 4: picking Mallett to get a first round knockout, and he
51:50
Speaker 4: is gonna score well with the first round knockout. But
51:52
Speaker 4: if he doesn't get a first round knockout, maybe any
51:56
Speaker 4: round after that could possibly not be enough, especially at
51:59
Speaker 4: his ownership against the people he has to compete against.
52:02
Speaker 4: So even picking him with the first round knocker, I'm
52:05
Speaker 4: not against being underweight to them a lot, or being
52:08
Speaker 4: underweight to the fight period. But as you mentioned, if
52:11
Speaker 4: Burns wins, he's gonna be on the optaal line. It's
52:15
Speaker 4: I don't know how he wouldn't be on the OPTO line.
52:17
Speaker 4: If it could be a one punch knockout, it could
52:20
Speaker 4: be a submission in the first round, and if he
52:22
Speaker 4: wins the decision, he's gonna score more than ten x
52:24
Speaker 4: as well, So definitely fine. If you like Burns to win,
52:28
Speaker 4: you should be all over that side. But I'm kind
52:31
Speaker 4: of leaning Mallet first round knockout or pass on the
52:34
Speaker 4: fight and let everyone else eat up on that ownership.
52:37
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's fair. I'm on the burn side or gonna
52:40
Speaker 3: be passing. For the most part, I'm gonna be underweight
52:43
Speaker 3: a lot. I mean, he's run one for him to
52:45
Speaker 3: finish plus two thirty five thirty percent, he's gonna come
52:48
Speaker 3: in roughly fifty. Even if it's like low forties, mid forties.
52:53
Speaker 3: I just think there's enough in the upper tier that
52:55
Speaker 3: you can get different with leave money, and I prefer
52:57
Speaker 3: Barbosa for one hundred more. So, to be honest, I
53:00
Speaker 3: would I want the little ownership discount if through is
53:04
Speaker 3: but my I know fights or whatever, and I'm not
53:06
Speaker 3: going to leave the hundred or if I use sabers
53:09
Speaker 3: him in that I don't go through every single lineup.
53:11
Speaker 3: But if I was handbuilding, I would rather leave a
53:13
Speaker 3: hundred with Barbosa than leave one hundred with me lot.
53:16
Speaker 3: So I'm going Barbosa over him. A lot in a vacuum,
53:19
Speaker 3: and I think that could be a decision this week.
53:22
Speaker 3: But yeah, I think Jasmine, I think Saraj, and I
53:25
Speaker 3: think Nalo. I'll have the upside in the upper tier
53:28
Speaker 3: that for less money, that could outscore him. So yeah,
53:32
Speaker 3: I don't think he wrestles only plus two to thirty
53:34
Speaker 3: five to win in round one, second round, knockout, third round,
53:37
Speaker 3: fourth very well might not be enough. Gilbert Burns, though,
53:40
Speaker 3: for sure, gonna have some of him, just like Luke
53:43
Speaker 3: he was in the sixth case. If you get a
53:44
Speaker 3: dog down there that wins and scores pretty well, the
53:48
Speaker 3: whole optimal leaving money is wide open. Obviously, Burn's gonna
53:52
Speaker 3: be a lot higher on than Luk, but the same
53:54
Speaker 3: point stands a lot easier to leave money, and he
53:56
Speaker 3: has a lot of upside there, So Burns my preferred play.
53:59
Speaker 3: Very curious to see if this line keeps moving though
54:01
Speaker 3: you can see it was minus six hundred on Tuesday,
54:03
Speaker 3: it was minus three thirty and now it's minus two seventy,
54:06
Speaker 3: so money has not stopped rolling in. On the burn side,
54:10
Speaker 3: fingers crossed to keep all twelve fights, because I will
54:12
Speaker 3: say if we lose one more, this card's gonna go
54:15
Speaker 3: to straight garbage. There's no other way around that. But
54:17
Speaker 3: if there's twelve fights, we got a live crowd. We
54:20
Speaker 3: have two people in the common section that'll be there.
54:22
Speaker 3: I am super jealous of you guys. Definitely enjoy it, because, yeah,
54:26
Speaker 3: you're gonna blink and you're gonna be walking home. We're
54:28
Speaker 3: gonna wake up the next day with how much fun
54:30
Speaker 3: you had, and you probably won't go for a long
54:32
Speaker 3: time at least. That's how it usually goes over here,
54:34
Speaker 3: and then I get sad even thinking about it. So
54:37
Speaker 3: enjoy for sure. Hopefully you see a great card. Hopefully
54:40
Speaker 3: your DFS lineups and your shiping Nation logos are near
54:43
Speaker 3: the top. Big Marley final thoughts before we get on
54:45
Speaker 3: out of here.
54:47
Speaker 4: Yeah, gonna need a sweat to make this one a
54:48
Speaker 4: fun one, but hopefully it's there. Good luck to you title,
54:51
Speaker 4: good luck to everybody listening. Enjoy the fights if you're
54:53
Speaker 4: going to it, Yeah, good luck. Let's hope for a
54:57
Speaker 4: good one.
54:58
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's ship it.
54:59
Speaker 3: Just like Big Marley did last week, and like many
55:01
Speaker 3: members did as well. We will see you in the
55:04
Speaker 3: discord again. Ship Nation dot Com. Join the Nation Single
55:07
Speaker 3: Sport MMA packages five days for nineteen dollars. You can
55:11
Speaker 3: all check that out again. Chip a nation right here,
55:14
Speaker 3: join the nation, all of our packages right there for
55:16
Speaker 3: a big marley. I'm titled town Be Safe, good luck
55:19
Speaker 3: this week.
55:20
Speaker 2: Peace,