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NFL Week 10 Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: The system's going clear to the leftop.
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: What's up everyone?
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: Tyler Tamberline here aka to Tag and Tambo back for another.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: Edition of Leverage Lane.
• 0:40
  Speaker 3: We got week ten nfl DFS gonna be breaking all
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: things down when it comes to ownership, maybe not in
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: the way you always hear it. We've had some interesting
• 0:48
  Speaker 3: takes even pre show to go through this. You'll definitely
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: want to stick around for that. As it affects single entry.
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: Our focus is as usual on GPPs, but at a
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: single entry up process, so you guys can put it
• 0:58
  Speaker 3: together for three max twenty max strap laid out from there,
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: Stage two of Leverage Lane, going down the lane as
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: we're going to get to the common built, how it
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: all fits together, what people are doing, and look for
• 1:07
  Speaker 3: ways to leverage that.
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: And at the very end, Alex and myself will take
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: all the.
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: Information we've got throughout the show to go with our
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: Leverage Lane and Alex I'll kick it over to you.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: We were I will say this.
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: Uticao won the five fifty five million maker last week
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: with a quad stack, so we were on the right
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: track when it came to that. But what was your
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: thoughts on last week? Will recap it a little bit first,
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: and how you doing this week?
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: My friend?
• 1:27
  Speaker 4: Week ten, we made it, Yeah, I was. I was
• 1:29
  Speaker 4: kind of bummed with that slate I had. I had
• 1:32
  Speaker 4: a triple stack with Daniel Jones and my thought kind
• 1:35
  Speaker 4: of going in was, if they finally have a week
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: where Jonathan Taylor doesn't score multiple touchdowns, this Daniel jonesack
• 1:41
  Speaker 4: is going off. And it actually did pretty well. Even
• 1:44
  Speaker 4: triple stacks worked if you had downs instead of Tyler Warren,
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: but instead of them producing the same amount that they
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: had been producing, it was just they scored multiple touchdowns
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  Speaker 4: fewer than they had been scoring. So it was a
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  Speaker 4: solid week. It wasn't a great week, but I I
• 2:00
  Speaker 4: really really like this lay ahead of us.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a good one. I'm gonna do a couple
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: of quick things first.
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: There's one promotion we got just started this week, and
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: so I want to get it out there fast because
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: we're giving away a five point fifty five Millimaker ticket.
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: So if you guys want to get the rest of
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: the NFL season, it includes college football, whether you need
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: it or not, or it's valid in your state or
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: whatever or not, but you do get ship at games.
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: Entry for the rest of the season, we're giving away
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: over fifty thousand dollars in cash to the ship at
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: Nation community twenty seven thousand plus in prizes thanks to
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: our partners over at Sabersim. You get all the tools, projections, ownership,
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: et cetera. And then you get in a draw anybody
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: who gets the one ninety nine deal and a lot
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: of taket advantage so far, you do get in a
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: draw for a five to fifty five MILLI Maker ticket
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: on top of that. So that's the promotion for this week.
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: If you just want to check things out and the
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: whole thing is not for you yet, then you can
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: get in for nineteen dollars with Ship nineteen.
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: Alex.
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: I want to do what we usually do and just
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: go through some of the positions and look at sort
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: of what we're seeing. I think we got some interesting
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: thoughts right here right away, especially as it retains to
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  Speaker 3: single entry, where things typically spread out a little bit further,
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: I shouldn't spread out actually opposite where you will see
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: more of a let's say, popular running back in the
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: twenty dollars million maker where we're getting most ownership. For that,
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: we'll start to get much higher owned or projected higher owned,
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: which is the keyword there when you get to looking
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: at the single entry, higher dollar, smaller field stuff. So
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: what are you sort of seeing right now when it
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: comes to some of the positional stuff.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it. The first thing I'll say is like,
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: this is a more spread out week of ownership than
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: a lot of the weeks that we've had in the
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  Speaker 4: last month or so, so that part of it is nice.
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  Speaker 4: I think the only guy that I have at forty percent,
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  Speaker 4: and again this is like, this is the first weekend
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  Speaker 4: at least a month where only one guy has been
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  Speaker 4: projected over forty percent for us in single entries. That's
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: Rico Daubtle at sixty three hundred against the Saints. I
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: think that it's probably still good chalk, just because he
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: seems like a very true bell count now and it's
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: it's gonna be really difficult for the game script to
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  Speaker 4: not go his way. Like that's you know, he's the
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  Speaker 4: type of running back who, by far, like the number
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  Speaker 4: one way he fails is that the game script gets
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  Speaker 4: out of hand and he just doesn't get the touches,
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  Speaker 4: he doesn't get the touchdowns. But against New Orleans and
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  Speaker 4: that in aft offense. That seems like a really unlikely outcome.
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  Speaker 4: So I think he's pretty good Chuck, but certainly not
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  Speaker 4: a lock for me. And then beyond that, you got
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  Speaker 4: McCaffrey thirty three point six percent, that's the lowest he's been.
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: You have a very very spread out wide receiver, especially
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  Speaker 4: like upper echelon with wide receiver Smith and Jigba Poka,
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: I'm on Rassain Brown all kind of stealing from each other.
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  Speaker 4: And then you do have one mid tier wide receiver
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  Speaker 4: who looks like he's gonna be very popular in zay flowers.
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: I'm kind of curious your thoughts there, because this is
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: not the first time we have seen Zay project for
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: a massive ownership around the industry. The last time we
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: had Lamar ruled out on I think it was either
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: Saturday or maybe even Sunday morning, and day still ended
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  Speaker 4: up like twenty five percent with Huntley, So that surprised me.
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  Speaker 4: It makes me think that there's actually like a real
• 4:59
  Speaker 4: floor to his ownership. This week against Minnesota.
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: It seems legit to me, like there's one that doesn't
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: seem legit, which we'll get to it a little bit.
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: I think we might save that for segment two. I
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: think a lot of people think one thing and then
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: I actually think it's the opposite. Both of us only
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: get to talk five minutes or so pre show. But
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: it was funny.
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  Speaker 2: You just asked the question and I answered it, and
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  Speaker 2: we ended up being on the same page. What was Zay?
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  Speaker 2: I think you nailed it with that statement.
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: It was I remember it because we talked about it
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  Speaker 3: with like if this then that type scenario on a
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  Speaker 3: Saturday about what would happen if Lamar was actually ruled out,
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: and then it ended up that he was. They gave
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  Speaker 3: him one more week to get through to the Thursday
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  Speaker 3: night football game or whatever it was with against Miami.
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  Speaker 3: So that was a week where you saw what happens
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  Speaker 3: with Zay ownership. Based off of that, it still kind
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: of was there this week.
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  Speaker 2: He's, you know, in single.
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  Speaker 3: Entry at just fifty nine hundred dollars. I think there's
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: enough people on Lamar and enough willing to go to again,
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  Speaker 3: not like it's gonna be high owned, but willing to
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  Speaker 3: at least consider JJ McCarthy after what they saw last
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  Speaker 3: week to say, Okay, he's gonna be in the mix somehow.
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  Speaker 3: What's your thoughts, soul, because you always have a good
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: t you know, sort of thought process around this stuff.
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  Speaker 2: Is Zay as a one off.
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: I'm definitely not interested in it. I think there are
• 6:06
  Speaker 4: worse one offs. So the main concern that I have
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  Speaker 4: here is if he has a huge game, it's just
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  Speaker 4: too likely that he's bringing Lamar Jackson with him. Because
• 6:15
  Speaker 4: of what Lamar does with his legs as well, and
• 6:17
  Speaker 4: because Lamar isn't two percent on, he's probably gonna be eight, nine,
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  Speaker 4: ten something like that. That's just a little bit more
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  Speaker 4: competition than what I'd like from one off wide receiver.
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  Speaker 4: Now he's at least somebody who he can get there
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  Speaker 4: on receptions in yards alone, is very touchdown independent, even
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: though like obviously, if if he gives you thirty five
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  Speaker 4: this week instead of twenty five, it's because he scored
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  Speaker 4: once or twice, whereas typically you know, his twenty twenty
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  Speaker 4: two point performance is just coming on yardage and receptions.
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  Speaker 4: So the ceiling is still going to bring Lamar with him,
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  Speaker 4: and that's why I'm I'm probably not on him. The
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: one way I might play him is if you just
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: slipped the build and you said, okay, what if if
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: it's Minnesota. Instead, what if it's McCarthy, Jefferson Addison and
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  Speaker 4: then I'll bring it back with Zay and maybe Derrick Henry.
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: And now I'm telling the story of Baltimore puts up
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: a lot of points. It's because they move the ball
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  Speaker 4: in chunks with Flowers and maybe Henry gets a long one,
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: but when they get to the red zone, it's Dereck
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  Speaker 4: Henry punching it in. He has a three touchdown game, say,
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  Speaker 4: has one hundred and fifty receiving yards, and then McCarthy
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  Speaker 4: ends about scoring Lamar Jackson that way. So that's the
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: kind of lineup that I would really consider him in.
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  Speaker 4: But other than that, I'm not gonna use him as
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  Speaker 4: a one off.
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: I like there was a little Isaiah joke in there.
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: We said it's with Zay Flowers, it's too likely that this,
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: So yeah, it could be a Lamar with Zay with likely,
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  Speaker 3: But I like to talking about flipping the build. We'll
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: get to that later. We talk about how to leverage
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: the common build. But that's a spot where it's like,
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: you know, even with JJ McCarthy, who you mentioned, he
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: doesn't have to raw points outscore Lamar. It's a slate
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  Speaker 3: where we're a little bit starved for value at some stuff,
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  Speaker 3: or we're forcing I'm seeing people forcing the sort of
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: mid range wide receivers outside of Zay. There is some
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: other options there that I think would be a little
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: bit more fragile, where like you said, he could just
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: get there on six for one thirty or something like
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  Speaker 3: that and it still counts. But the other thing that's
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: interesting too, and it's all slate dynamics, is think back
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: to the week of Rashie Rice at fifty six hundred.
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: He was three hundred bucks less. He was super chalk
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: for a reason. He actually did get two touchdowns. He
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: was still not on winners. He was on some of
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: the stuff in the smaller field stuff, but overall still
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: wasn't required because it was thirty points scores out there.
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: And maybe that's a thought for this slate as well.
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: But it's not like we see, or at least I don't.
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: I'm a huge Ravens. I'm c z getting to like
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: eight k anytime soon. Versus Rice, you were like, well,
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: he's gonna be seventy five hundred plus next week probably
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: if it has a good game this week. At fifty
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: six hundred and he did and then we saw that,
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: So there.
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: Is some dynamics to that.
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: The one thing you mentioned there too that I think
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: stands true just going to it here looking at it quarterback,
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: you've got sort of the ranges, right, You've got the Lamar,
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: Josh Allen, maybe even lump Drake Allen in there where
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: people are sorry Drake May Josh Allen, sim you know,
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: in there. But then after that it's kind of cheaper guys, right,
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: Like you're seeing what you said maybe, And it's not
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: like they have huge ownership because it's so.
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: Spread out five to seven percenters.
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: Whether people are choosing Darnald or they're choosing mac Jones,
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: they're looking at JJ McCarthy, Mariota, whatever it might be,
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: across different sites. Is there anything else at quarterback that
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: that makes you think could change as we get to
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: the single entry stuff and diving into what the build
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: looks like.
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I actually do think I have a different read
• 9:24
  Speaker 4: on quarterback ownership this week than most of the industry. Obviously,
• 9:29
  Speaker 4: like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are projecting as popular
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: around the industry, and it's not that I think that
• 9:33
  Speaker 4: they won't be. I just think the typical build is
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: not going to be one of those two. The typical
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: build is going to be paying down at quarterback. So McCarthy,
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: Jacoby Brissett, Jackson, Dart mac Jones. I think that's kind
• 9:47
  Speaker 4: of the foundation that people are gonna like a little
• 9:49
  Speaker 4: bit more just because it gives you that easier access
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: to McCaffrey, Smith and Jagbo Right, Like Smith and jag
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: Buffet's perfectly as a bringback to Jacoby Brissett. That's one factor.
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: Like I think I'm probably the highest in the industry
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: on Brissett's ownership, and that's one of the main reasons why.
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: It's because there's a very clear and obvious way to
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: use one of the studs that everyone wants to use
• 10:10
  Speaker 4: within that stack, that game stack. So I think people
• 10:14
  Speaker 4: are going to do that a little bit more often because,
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: as you said, we're a little bit starve for value,
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: and so how do people get value that they actually
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: feel a little bit good about. They turn to the
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: stack for it. They feel like, Okay, if none of
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: the value that I use is going to be good,
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: I can at least correlate the value that I use,
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: which is smart. I certainly don't think it's wrong to
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: build this way, but I do think it's going to
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: be a little bit more popular. At least the structure
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: is going to be more popular than what people think.
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: The good news is, whether we like Brissette, Jackson, Dart
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: or any of these other like really cheap guys, there
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: isn't anyone who's going to be twenty percent or twenty
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: five percent or at least I don't think there's going
• 10:52
  Speaker 4: to be. So we can kind of pick our favorites
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: among this group as long as there's some way that
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: we have some real conviction about.
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and we talk about you know the name of
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: the show leverage Lane, and we talk about leverage levels.
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: We always talked about this. I love that, you know,
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: we think so much alike on stuff. And that's why
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: it's great because you said which is smart, and I say, like,
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: I get it, and I think people get it like
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: that is how you get there. Because then to my
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: boy needs his points as it's a comfortable built, people say, well,
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: at least if it lines up with the stack, I'm
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: on the right path, because that's if the value hits
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: the cheaper value that I'm on.
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: Well, it seems risky.
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: At least it's attached and correlated and associated to a
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: stack that's gonna give me multiple extra points and correlation
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: that builds up the overall score. But I think the
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: level to it is that you're Brisset, I don't know,
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: Brisset Wilson McBride stack to get JSN in Yes it
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: makes sense, Yes it feels good, Yes it is smart.
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: To your point, it still at least makes some sense
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: because Wilson, while he's a punt and a risk, it
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: gets you McBride who's popular for good reason, and JSN
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: who's popular for good reason. It makes your value work.
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: But just remember if that's the most common version of
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: that where people are landing, there is levels to the
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: stacks of like what's the ability within that price of
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: a stack to go and get Mac Jones, Kendrick Bourne
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: and George Kittle and maybe still land on CMC like
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: you know what I mean? Like where oh, and people
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: see it. And that's where I think, Alex, when people
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: watch Takedown Breakdown on Mondays where we review all this stuff,
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: Nate's is on there with me, You're on this with
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: me when we review that stuff people, I was like, how.
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: Did I not land on that build. It was so easy.
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: But what was in there, what's in their head is
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: actually it makes the same amount of sense as everything
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: else I was considering. In our previous example of the
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: Brissett one, it's the same thought process. You just didn't
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: go down that path as your lane. So that's the difference, right,
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: And we've seen it work a ton of different weeks.
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: Geno Smith the week with Meyers, Tucker and Bowers. Even
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: though Meyer and Bowers that week didn't come through Jacoby
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: Meers and Bowers didn't come through. It was Trey Tucker
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: putting up forty four.
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: The lane still worked.
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: Of the thought process of all my other stuff is
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: great and lines up if I just hit this. You
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: can think beyond the Brisset one, not saying don't go
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: that road, just saying when you see it. If you're
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: seeing that be more popular, so are others. You can
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: find the what makes sense stack in a bunch of
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: different stacks on this slate, and that's what's gonna be
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: the case of what can get there? Do you have
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: anything else to add when it comes to that? If not,
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: we could talk a little bit more about these running backs,
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: because I think that's where it gets interesting this week.
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: Yeah, when don't we have the James Cook devon eh
• 13:19
  Speaker 4: Chan discussion, because if you look around the industry, you're
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: going to see a lot of a Chan projected like
• 13:25
  Speaker 4: twenty five thirty percent and James Cook around ten to fifteen.
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: And I just don't see that. I actually have Cook,
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: where I think is still conservatively projected at eighteen point
• 13:37
  Speaker 4: one percent in single entries, and eight Chan at seventeen
• 13:39
  Speaker 4: point nine percent, So as close as it could possibly be,
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: I am projecting Cook to flip eight Chan, and I
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: it would not surprise me at all if the if
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: you know, we get to kick off on Sunday, you
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: open the DraftKings app, you're scrolling through ownerships and Cook
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: is at twenty five percent, a Chan is at fifteen percent.
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: Wouldn't supress me at all. I don't underst stand the
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: love for one thing, Like I haven't talked to anyone
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: who's enthusiastic about playing a Chan in this matchup. Yes
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: he projects well, but it's one of those things where
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: like I almost feel like projections are it can be
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: like too mathematical. We talked last week about how you
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: know Manungai against the Bengals defense. He was projected like
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: seventeen and a half. That was an aggressive one. But
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: if you compared his typical production or the typical production
• 14:28
  Speaker 4: of what we would expect in that role, and then
• 14:30
  Speaker 4: talked about how much better running back's done against Cincinnati,
• 14:33
  Speaker 4: averaging like ten more fantasy points per game, it's like
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: the expectation is in seventeen and a half, it's twenty four,
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: twenty five and a half. He got that without a touchdown.
• 14:42
  Speaker 4: So this is one of those I think with a
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: Chan where it's like the opposite. Any mathematical projection model
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: fairly is going to put him twenty twenty one, twenty
• 14:51
  Speaker 4: two draftings points something like that because of how much
• 14:54
  Speaker 4: he offers in the passing game as well. But I
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: just don't see how he gets too far beyond that.
• 14:59
  Speaker 4: Where I really questioned the ceiling for a Chan this
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: week in this matchup, and there is a path to
• 15:04
  Speaker 4: him really kind of underwhelming because this Buffalo defense, Number one,
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: they match up really really well with Miami, especially with
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: no Tyreek kill, Like teams just want to play too
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: high against them. Buffalo already plays a lot of too
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: high and they play it really well they haven't been
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: great against the run, but because of that, because of
• 15:22
  Speaker 4: the way that they defend the pass, they can actually
• 15:24
  Speaker 4: commit more resources to the run in this matchup. And again,
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: a chan doesn't project well because of what he can
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: do in the running game, he projects well because of
• 15:32
  Speaker 4: what he does in the passing game. So I just
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: think this is a bad spot. Buffalo also does a
• 15:36
  Speaker 4: really good job of controlling how much the opponent actually
• 15:40
  Speaker 4: has the ball. Teams don't run a lot of plays
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: against them. Miami runs very few plays to begin with.
• 15:46
  Speaker 4: I think this game is a hole, is going to
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: be a low play volume type game, and I think
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: Miami's going to get the wrong side of that anyway.
• 15:53
  Speaker 4: To me, this is James Cooker No One from this game,
• 15:56
  Speaker 4: and I feel very strongly about that.
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm actually not so I agree fully. This is
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: what we talk about pre shows, so and now that
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: we went there, I mean a couple other factors. Again,
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: my guy Naed's coming in with the good ones. If
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: you can't get to Alan, like you said, people are
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: more comfortable with the cheaper quarterbacks because that's where you
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: can find value. This week, the value that we just
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: talked about that leaks out from that into the stack
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: where it's like, oh now I love my lineup. As
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: long as this stack does anything again smart, like you said,
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: don't disagree, but that's part of the thought process.
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: Then it's the huge team total. Then it's still the
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: good matchup on paper.
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: The sites that are showing sort of O line, D
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: line or DV like, all that stuff is going to
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: reflect the Bill's side. Interestingly enough, the projection, I don't
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: know what you have for player point projection, but we
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: actually have a slightly higher projection, a bigger he can
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: get a bigger ceiling, I think out of HM because
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: if he catches a bunch more passes and whatnot and
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: missing since Tyreek Hill and all that, the timing that's
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: gone by, I think it's possible. But I think from
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: a projection point, it still shows James Cook. So that's
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: still going to go into the optimizers. So I've heard
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: more people. I've heard more people talk about James Cook
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: and Dulcic secondary stack. Then I've heard people talk about
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: a Chan single by himself. So I will say this,
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: it could be James Cook or nothing, but I think
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: for me, I'm still gonna be stacking some Josh Allen,
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: and I also think say, if I was going a
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: secondary stack, well.
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: It doesn't it's all baked in like we talk about.
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: I actually don't mind going to something like a Chan
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: and King Kid and it's still it's just the a Chan.
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: If the ownership does actually flip like we think it could,
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: it's more that the ownership I think comes back some
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: on both to your point on the numbers you have,
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: and then if it does come back some and then
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: one pops up, we actually think it's James Cook that
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: does that in your tournament. So I think especially in
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: like single entry, people want to get a piece of
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: the thirty point bills. That's just where they go. I'd
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: be fine with King Kid as well. At forty three hundred.
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: He's just sitting there in the middle of a bunch
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: of other stuff and you don't have to go a
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: Chan in that. I just want to bring it up
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: that I think that's an interesting spot to go as well.
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: Let's see for me here.
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: I think the last thing I'll say on this is like,
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: this is just a spot where I think people get
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: really confident in the ownership projection that they're looking at.
• 18:00
  Speaker 4: And this is one where I think we should give
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: the industry credit for how sharp we are as an industry,
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: and that a lot of people are gonna look at
• 18:09
  Speaker 4: that ownership projection for James Cook and say it's hard
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: to stack this game. I don't like who I'm pairing
• 18:15
  Speaker 4: Josh Allen with, I don't like the opposite side, but
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: they are implied for over thirty points, so someone's going
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: to score. It just makes too much sense to go
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: to James Cook. It's a smart play. It would be
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: one of the sharpest plays on the entire slate if
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: his ownership projection around the industry was correct. So because
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: of that, I'm just saying I think he's going to
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: be another five to ten percent kind of minimum. He
• 18:36
  Speaker 4: might end up being, you know, twenty five to thirty percent.
• 18:39
  Speaker 4: Like I really wouldn't be shocked if we saw that
• 18:41
  Speaker 4: kind of steme from him. So my point is basically,
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: just if you do want to play James Cook, because
• 18:45
  Speaker 4: I still think he's the smartest way to play anyone
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: from this game, if you do want to play him,
• 18:50
  Speaker 4: you just need to understand you're probably playing into more
• 18:52
  Speaker 4: ownership than what you're seeing around the industry.
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and I will say this too, because somebody just
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: I think with Sean who brought it up, said Judkins's
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: interesting pivot from Jockey rego. We could stay here because
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: we're still in segment one, just going through some of
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: the positional stuff. As we move around, I think we're
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: seeing what do you have on Judkins right now?
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: I'm curious.
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: I'll start there, Actually, what do you have on him
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: right now?
• 19:12
  Speaker 4: I've got sixteen percent. I think that's probably a little
• 19:15
  Speaker 4: bit above industry. Also another guy that I want to
• 19:18
  Speaker 4: be surprised if aam's up to twenty five percent. Because
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: the matchup with the Jets is obviously good to begin with,
• 19:22
  Speaker 4: and now no Sauce Gardner, no Quinn Williams, they're probably
• 19:25
  Speaker 4: going to be even worse defensively than they've been, which
• 19:28
  Speaker 4: is hard to imagine. But like the matchup with Miami,
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: like we know, Judkins, like doubtll is going to be
• 19:35
  Speaker 4: a very game script, matchup dependent type fantasy producer, and
• 19:40
  Speaker 4: this definitely qualifies as one of the games where he's
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: most likely to be in a good game script and
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: most likely to actually be efficient even though they can't
• 19:49
  Speaker 4: pass the ball. So this is a very good spot
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: for Judkins, And again, it's the type of spot that
• 19:54
  Speaker 4: people are going to catch on to and say, hey,
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: wait a minute, this is actually one of the spots
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: where I can play this guy and he's fun to
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: So it wouldn't surprise me if he ends up to twenty
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: five to thirty percent. But I'm kind of conservatively leaving
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: him at sixteen for now.
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: And I think another thing to talk about here, So
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: I wanted to ask you that I think this he's
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: also going to get boosted by the Browns d whether
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: people like it or not, that's a correlation that people
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: love to go with. Obviously it can make some sense.
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: The chat's already talking about what about putting the panthers
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: with Dowdell? What about putting the bills with James Cook?
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: I mean, the bills with James Cook is a little
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: bit more expensive than the Dabtle costs because you're going
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: up eleven or twelve hundred dollars and then a little
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: bit on the defense too, So of course that's going
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: to be a little bit lower home. But at least
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: to Alex's point, that could could make some more sense.
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: If it's not a chan, it's not you know, to
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: a start throwing interceptions things like that. That could be where
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: James Cook finds his way and you'll just have to
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: find that little bit of extra money. I think the
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: Browns d is definitely pushing up Judkins even further people
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: already looking for a bit of a pivot. That doesn't
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: mean that Dowdell doesn't become the highest owned still, which
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: we think he will. It just means it'll be held
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: in check at forty ish as opposed to getting even
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: crazier and out of control like something else. So I
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: think that's important to think about. And also real quick, Tamba.
• 21:02
  Speaker 4: But before you move on, I think this is a
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: phenomenal point that you're making about the brown See and
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: how it affects Judkins. I already have the Browns way
• 21:09
  Speaker 4: above industry. I'm at sixteen percent on them, So I
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: think like immediately when we get off this, I'm going
• 21:15
  Speaker 4: and bumping the Judkins ownership at least at twenty percent,
• 21:18
  Speaker 4: because this is how we should be thinking through ownership, right.
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: It's it's not how is everyone evaluating this play individually?
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: It's how does this play get affected by everything else
• 21:29
  Speaker 4: that people are seeing and wanting to do? And like
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: you I am envisioning a lot of Cleveland defensive Steam
• 21:35
  Speaker 4: because they're just aren't very many good options that are
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: under three thousand dollars that you project pretty well around
• 21:41
  Speaker 4: the industry. And now you have that perfect you know,
• 21:44
  Speaker 4: traditional correlation pair that you can use them with Judkins.
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: I think it's it's just a great example of number one,
• 21:51
  Speaker 4: how we want to kind of kind of show people
• 21:54
  Speaker 4: how to think through ownership and how ownership might move.
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: But then it's also just a really good point and
• 21:59
  Speaker 4: to say that, you know what, I do need to
• 22:01
  Speaker 4: bump that Judgekins ownership projection. I think twenty is probably
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: a floor for him.
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah, this is the prep work that's important because this
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: is what it makes you actually be ready to go
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: for certain situational stuff when you're thinking. I'll give another
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: I love just riffing back and forth on this stuff.
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: It's great because it's you know, kind of I think
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: it really helps people. But this is a prime example
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: where sometimes this is the case and sometimes it's something else.
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: And I'll give two of them. One is if you
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: go to the spot of like the Carolina one with Dowdell.
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: That's another thing like I don't think you're getting sneaky
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: with the Carolina Panthers D. I think they'll end up
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: becoming one of the most popular sheep defenses because it's
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: backwards correlated. If Dawdlell's going to get that much ownership,
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: people start thinking I can put this in to.
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: Help it get different.
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: They don't move from Daddle, They try and go to
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: a different way with it. Dowdell stays whatever, and then
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: the defense comes along with it. It's the inverse of
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: the one we just talked about with the Browns d
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: picking up steam and that. But it doesn't always get
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: thought about this way where you go to the Cook
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: one because everyone doesn't necessarily currently think. We literally are
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: probably the first people to bring that up. I haven't
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: heard anyone mention it yet, but you and I both
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: thought where James Cook is going to be more owned
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: than a chan. You already have a situation where not
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: everyone is there yet. It's a bubble thing. So then
• 23:07
  Speaker 3: the bills d is not there yet because of that,
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: and if people catch on too late to that and
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: that becomes a great option, that would be your leverage
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: to the tournament in a good way already.
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: If that holds.
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: True, now just noting that the secondary piece and this
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: can be some of the stuff a wide receiver, because
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: I want to talk quickly about like Pooka and a
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: Monra and Jefferson and some of these guys.
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: But a favorite of yours.
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: I mean, he probably still is, but week one was
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: not too good to you, Nico Collins. The jags D
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: is super popular right now at the cheaper price one
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: of twenty six hundred. But you don't see anything on
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: anything that can hurt it or leverage and people to
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: all I am I gonna put with Travis etn Junior.
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: Probably not, that might not be the way. You don't
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: have to apply the Judkins theory to this. But what
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: would be the way to leverage it is a guy
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: at sixty seven hundred dollars in Nico Collins. I know
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: it's Davis Mills coming in, but still sixty seven hundred
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: bucks for Nico Collins at like read a five percent
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: ownership maybe and that would just again anyone who it's
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: not about it would necessarily hurt the Jags D.
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: They both could get there.
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: It's most people building lineups with the jags D already
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: won't have Collins. And then you factor, all the other
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: factors of the slate and the position the stacks and
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: all of that. So do you have any thoughts on
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: any other ways along those lines, because I think that
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: leads us into some wide receiver talk with Nico Collins
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: as well. But I just think that's something interesting that
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: stands out to me from the previous conversation we just
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: had a running back.
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: Well, I think there are two things I want to
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: kind of mention here. The first is about this thought
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: of doubto and the Carolina defense. I do think it's
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: true that the Carolina defense will stay I don't know,
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: five seven, eight percent something like that, But think about
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: the ownership within doubtle lineups. Who's actually using that Carolina defense.
• 24:46
  Speaker 4: Who's paying thirty five hundred dollars for the Carolina defense.
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: It's primarily the people who have Doubtle and think that they're,
• 24:51
  Speaker 4: you know, getting this great correlation there. I don't think
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: it's that correlated. But more importantly, I think in doubtle lineups,
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: the Carolina defense might be fifteen percent owned instead of
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: six percent, So you should think about that aspect of it.
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: But then the second thing I want to say is like,
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: just generally speaking, this is where ownership matters the most.
• 25:11
  Speaker 4: Let's let's use this Cleveland pair again to kind of
• 25:15
  Speaker 4: really kind of envision this Judkins we think is going
• 25:18
  Speaker 4: to be let's say, twenty percent Cleveland fifteen percent. If
• 25:22
  Speaker 4: you think that you're playing that pair with Judkins at
• 25:25
  Speaker 4: thirteen percent and the Cleveland defense at seven percent, because
• 25:28
  Speaker 4: that's what you're seeing on a lot of different sites,
• 25:30
  Speaker 4: you're gonna feel really good about that. Ownership doesn't matter
• 25:34
  Speaker 4: a ton when you're looking at, you know, a random
• 25:36
  Speaker 4: wide receiver and it's, oh, is it going to be
• 25:38
  Speaker 4: eight percent or eleven percent? That doesn't really affect a
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: whole lot. Seven percent and thirteen percent for Judkins in
• 25:44
  Speaker 4: Cleveland verse twenty percent and fifteen percent. That's massive. That's
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: a huge difference. So when you're looking at these plays,
• 25:50
  Speaker 4: and particularly when you're looking at your contrarian plays, one
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: of the questions you want to ask is if I'm
• 25:55
  Speaker 4: wrong about the ownership, how wrong can I possibly be
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: about this guy? How protected is this guy from really
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: still or how protected is this combination from really steaming?
• 26:03
  Speaker 4: And you know, this Cleveland one is one of those
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: examples where you're not protected at all. It could get
• 26:08
  Speaker 4: really bad really quickly. And then you've got to ask yourself,
• 26:11
  Speaker 4: if I am accidentally playing these guys at twenty percent
• 26:13
  Speaker 4: and fifteen percent, am I gonna hate myself for that?
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: And I to me like that pairing, Yeah, that's one
• 26:18
  Speaker 4: that I would not want to be in on that
• 26:20
  Speaker 4: as Chuck, as much as I would be interested in it.
• 26:23
  Speaker 4: If it's, you know, a contrarian pairing and each of
• 26:27
  Speaker 4: the individual plays there a contrarian. So I think that's
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: just another like really good kind of broad picture kind
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: of thought.
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's important to think of that. That's saying so
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: I love going through this stuff. I would not do
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: this personally. Just to note the reason. I mean, we've
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: focused on single entry and GPPs, but I mean you're
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: missing out on so much and if that's what costs you,
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: imagine you get everything else right, that's the point of
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: having fifty lineups thinking, So, I mean you're missing out
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: on Detroit, you're missing out on Seattle. These are high
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: leverage spots or good good cases like Seattle is one
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: hundred bucks more. Going up against Brissett and Trey McBride,
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: both are going to be very popular if you end
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: up beating having a good lineup that wasn't on the
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: Brissette stuff already. I mean, when you're on a different
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: stack and everything else that goes with it, you're kind
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: of saying whether you know it or like it or not,
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: you're saying, I'm not interested in them, because I'm interested in.
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: This beating that.
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: Well, what could also help beat that and double leverage
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: it would be to have something like the Seahawks defense.
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: I'm not advocating them specifically, as much as saying examples
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: to what you're mentioning.
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: Within your portfolio.
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: I would not be all in on a thirty five
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: hundred dollars Panthers just because you like the spot and
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: think it's the best one to teach your own. That's
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: your risk for reward, your money. But you're gonna be
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: really angry if you have, you know, thirty or twenty
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: of those builds that are in pretty good shape, but
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: they're all dead because the Carolina de didn't come through
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: for you and easily could have been other alternate options
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: on this slate. So your your call, but it's just
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: a my two cents on it. Lastly, real quick, Alex,
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: and then we'll get to the common build and putting
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: this all together of what we've seen so far, I
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: do want to spend a few moments on those wide
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: receivers because there is that's I think part of the
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: slate dynamics here right, is like you only have these
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: mid range as low as these mid range running backs
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: for most people, they're not seeing the option to go
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: to value.
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: You have the cheaper quarterbacks.
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: That I think you nailed earlier, people are definitely going
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: to more to NAT's point, to your point of how
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: comfortable it is, it makes sense, but remember a lot
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: of those lead not many of those.
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: Lead to expensive stacks.
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: Maybe you could say the McCarthy Jefferson Addison one gets
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: a bit up there, but that still fits the mid
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: range build of just a cheap tight end with the
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: mid range running backs and a cheap defense. So it's
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: still a very similar build type once you go down
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: that path. But I do think with Nico Collinson up
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: like when you go Nico Puoka, a Monro Saint Brown.
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: We talked about Jefferson already and maybe in those stacks, Well,
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: what's your thought on these expensive wide receivers on the slate,
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: because I think that's where people have to struggle to
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: get to.
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: If they're going high, they're going to CMC for example.
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: Yeah, So from an ownership perspective, I've got Puka twenty three,
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: Jay said at twenty five, I'm on Riot twenty, Jefferson
• 29:00
  Speaker 4: at ten, a book at fifteen. So I think it's
• 29:03
  Speaker 4: going to be pretty spread out. My preference is not
• 29:06
  Speaker 4: as spread out. I think Puka is in a tier
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: of his own here. I think number one, he's been
• 29:10
  Speaker 4: kind of in a tier of his own just throughout
• 29:12
  Speaker 4: the whole season, particularly in games that he's played the
• 29:14
  Speaker 4: whole game. But man, the matchup is so good in
• 29:18
  Speaker 4: the last two weeks. So no Fred Warner for San
• 29:20
  Speaker 4: Francisco posing quarterbacks or nineteen of twenty two for two
• 29:25
  Speaker 4: hundred yards and two touchdowns throwing over the middle of
• 29:28
  Speaker 4: the field. That's not an accident. That's what happens when
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: you lose a player like Fred Warner on a defense
• 29:32
  Speaker 4: that's already kind of hurting everywhere and isn't that good anyway,
• 29:36
  Speaker 4: And then you realize who were those quarterbacks?
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: It was c. J.
• 29:40
  Speaker 4: Stroud throwing to a team without Nico Collins and Jackson
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: Dark Stafford to Puka is going to tear them apart
• 29:47
  Speaker 4: this week. I think Puka has an absolutely massive ceiling.
• 29:50
  Speaker 4: I think Kirian Williams has a massive ceiling. This is
• 29:52
  Speaker 4: the game that Kyen had. I think it was like
• 29:54
  Speaker 4: seven receptions for sixty six yards and two receiving touchdowns.
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: They were using him over the middlefield a lot. That
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: was when Fred Warner was still playing, So that that
• 30:02
  Speaker 4: whole Rams offense, I think is in such a good
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: spot and it really puts Pooka ahead of everyone else
• 30:07
  Speaker 4: for me. I also think DeVante Adams, you know, he's
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: He's produced over the middle quite a bit as well,
• 30:12
  Speaker 4: so I wouldn't count him out. And I think you
• 30:14
  Speaker 4: could play both of them together with Stafford. I wouldn't
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: play them together without Stafford, but I think you could
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: play Adams instead of Pooka and feel pretty good about that.
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: So I really like Pooka, I really like Adams, and
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: I think they're kind of in a tier they're own
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: for me up top. I don't think that Jasn is
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: a bad play. I don't think aman Ran is a
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: bad play. I just think Pooka is a better play
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: than these guys.
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the tricky here is, you know, and Nads says
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: it here that no one wants Stafford at that price point.
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: I don't think it's nobody wants it. I think I
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: mean ownership explains that, yes, And I agree with you there,
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: But I'm saying that it's a product of the slate
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: because if you go even like, what what are you
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: gonna do? If you go Stafford and Puka, do you
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: really want to just put Juwan Jennings in there and
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: be like, well that's my stack. You're leaving out Adams,
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: You're leaving out Christian McCaffrey, like, you're really not on
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: the best pieces. And it's super expensive to go Stafford, Puoka,
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: CMC and people just cannot find the value right. They
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: can't find it. So while it does slice into them,
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: and you know, I love a good slice and dice,
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: it's very tricky for people to find that this week
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: unless more value opens up. Because go build a lineup
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: right now and you put Pookah, you put Stafford, you
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: put CMC, and then even just do that and build
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: it out, you're not gonna like the rest of your build.
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: It's not gonna really play out too well. When you're
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: looking at sims and things like that, you're gonna have
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: to do more. So I think that's part of the
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: process there that people don't fully always follow or see
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: it that way.
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: That's what we try and explain both ways on the show.
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: Of like that makes perfect sense and looks good, it
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: would be awesome if we could get to it, But
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: when it screws up the rest of the bill, that's
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: where people come back and say, what did I do wrong? Well,
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: you jammed like four punt plays just to make those
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: three guys work.
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: I get it.
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: We like those three guys, but we play a nine
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: roster position game, including defense, so it's like you have
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: to be able to fill out the rest of the
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: lineup and not have yourself give up too much or
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: need too many diamonds in the raw for sacrifices to
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: get there. And then on the flip side of it,
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: it's the it's the opposite. People go way too safe,
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: right and they just get all the best plays, but
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: they're all the chalk plays together and it's like they're
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: not really going off the boards. So I don't know
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: if you have anything else you want to add on that,
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: but if not, that's probably a good segue after you're
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: done to bring us to the how to leverage the
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: common build this week and what we're seeing that look like.
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: I think we talked through a bunch of it already.
• 32:27
  Speaker 4: I think the one thing I'll add to that thought
• 32:29
  Speaker 4: is if I was going to do the Stafford double sack,
• 32:32
  Speaker 4: or if I was gonna use Stafford at all, it
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: would be a double sack with Pooka and Adams and
• 32:36
  Speaker 4: then the bring back to save money instead of trying
• 32:38
  Speaker 4: to force McCaffrey. I don't even think you could possibly
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: do that. I'd go Kiddle. And it gets to just
• 32:44
  Speaker 4: this idea of like we want to think about how
• 32:46
  Speaker 4: the game could go if if Stafford and Puka and
• 32:49
  Speaker 4: Adams are are connecting their their you know, going for
• 32:53
  Speaker 4: a touchdown drive every single time they touch the ball,
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: and Stafford's throwing all these touchdowns, it's putting San Francisco
• 32:58
  Speaker 4: in a games shoot and they actually have to just
• 33:00
  Speaker 4: traditionally drop back through regular passes, get away from the
• 33:03
  Speaker 4: run game, get away from the play action game. And
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: now you're actually getting Kittle running routes every play instead
• 33:08
  Speaker 4: of big use as a blocker, this and that, and
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: and that's when Kittle all of a sudden has you
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: know the path to any reception game, and so I
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: think that's another thing I think Govin just like again,
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: just this idea of when you're stacking, when you're building
• 33:25
  Speaker 4: any lineup, you want to think how does this affect
• 33:27
  Speaker 4: each individual play. That's a kind of game script where
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: Kittle would really have that massive ceiling. So I like
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: that thought. But yeah, let's let's move on to to
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: kind of leveraging the common build and what the common
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: build actually is.
• 33:38
  Speaker 3: No spoilers, let's move on. For sure, we'll keep it wrong.
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: We got our leverage lane at the end, but we'll
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: talk through that. I think this is definitely an interesting spot.
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: I'll say that much. Let's go to the second part. Well,
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: the second segment. For those that are tuning in for
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: the first time, are we appreciate you. Make sure to
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: hit that thumbs up. Make sure to subscribe if you
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: like this content.
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: It's free.
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: This is a show a lot of people would love
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: to have behind the paywall instead of out in the open.
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: But we we have a lot of fun doing it.
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: We get a ton of people getting involved. And remember,
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: I know everyone right now is watching this live, but
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: if you are watching this on playback or replay as
• 34:08
  Speaker 3: many do. Put your leverage lane in the comments below,
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: let us know what you're on. We'll circle back each
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: week and take a look at some of those before
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: we go into the show. But that's gonna be a
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: new thing moving forward. Just make sure you put that
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: down there so let us know yours go into the
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: second segment there, Alex, how to leverage the common build
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: really just looking at sort of now that we've seen
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: everything we've seen, we want to put it all together.
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: See what some of these combinations are you talk we talk,
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: I mean the Judkins Browns one was a prime example,
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: like that's certainly going to be a popular one that
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: you see pair it up. We talked about a few
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: different ones already. But then we can talk about some
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: of these game stacks as well. So let's talk about
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: the common build first, what you're seeing the round segment one,
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: and then we'll talk about how we can leverage that.
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: So, yeah, I think the first thing that I'm seeing
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: in terms of the common build is is not the
• 34:53
  Speaker 4: expensive quarterback. It's the cheap quarterback trying to save some
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: money in the stack so that you can get at
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: least two of studs. And when I say studs, I
• 35:02
  Speaker 4: don't necessarily mean McCaffrey Pooka. I'm also including Cook Gibbs,
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: maybe even like a Derrick Henry type guy, or Justin Jefferson,
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: Dvante Adams, emanuel A Mecca, a Buka. I think all
• 35:15
  Speaker 4: these guys kind of qualify here because it's just as
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: you know someone commented earlier, it's a more comfortable build
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: this way. If you save money through the stack, Now
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: you're getting access to these guys that you view as
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: some really high upside great plays. You're doing it without
• 35:32
  Speaker 4: having to punt anywhere in a way that feels like, oh,
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: this is a really ugly play, but at least I
• 35:37
  Speaker 4: get access to this guy if you do that through
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: the stack instead, if you save your money through the stack,
• 35:42
  Speaker 4: whether it's Burssett, McBride, Michael Wilson, as you said, whether
• 35:45
  Speaker 4: it's Brissett, Marvin Harrison and Michael Wilson or Marvin Harrison
• 35:49
  Speaker 4: and Trey McBride, I think it's going to be just
• 35:52
  Speaker 4: a much more comfortable way for people to build. And
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: that means if we want to leverage these builds, what
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: do we have to do well, We either have to
• 36:00
  Speaker 4: find a better way to play the studs. So you know,
• 36:03
  Speaker 4: I like to me, I think the best answer is
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: find the cheap stack that you think is just a
• 36:12
  Speaker 4: better cheap stack than what people are using. Because if
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: you're going the route instead of I'm going to use
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: these studs and I'm going to now instead of you know,
• 36:21
  Speaker 4: saving money through my stack, I'm going to save money
• 36:23
  Speaker 4: with a bunch of really cheap one offs, that's a
• 36:26
  Speaker 4: like decidedly worse pap than the cheap well correlated stack.
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: So instead, I want to find the contrarian well correlated
• 36:36
  Speaker 4: cheap stack that I think is just better than where
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: most people are going. Or I want to just build
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: a very balanced line up. But instead of getting to
• 36:44
  Speaker 4: CMC and JSN, I say, okay, one of the most
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: expensive guy in my lineup is DeVante Adams or Derrick
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: Henry something like that. And now I'm getting a bunch
• 36:54
  Speaker 4: of guys who I like, a bunch of guys who
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: I think have a great ceiling. Rico Dwell would fit
• 36:58
  Speaker 4: that mold. But you don't have to punt anywhere. I
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: don't have to save money anywhere. My stack is probably
• 37:04
  Speaker 4: going to be a mid tier stack as well. So
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: those are the two routes for me, very balanced build
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: or a contrarian cheap stack.
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and we'll look at some of those. I think
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: the big thing for me is looking at some of
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: the spots.
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: It's like, if if you're on doubtle, fine, but if
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: you're not, I would be comfortable playing Saints D at
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: twenty four hundred. We just saw a cheap d get
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: there last week that was against Kimani Vidal and the
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: popular defense. On the other side, you could see something
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: like that this week if you didn't want to go
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: that route. I think another one somebody mentioned it earlier
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: but was like, you could definitely flip the brown side.
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: I know the Jets are in shambles and everyone says
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: they suck now and others they're still I think last night,
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: look they were still favorites, or maybe they moved to
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: slight underdogs. No, yeah, slight underdogs what they moved to,
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: so that you know, at the end of the day,
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: I think you can see that stuff flip. We've seen
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: teams like look at the stuff we've seen lately. We
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: see in Carolina beat Green Bay. We've seen you know,
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: all these teams show up in these spots where it's like,
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: it's definitely possible, and that's just two bad teams, so.
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: It could go either way.
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: But what game stack do you think people are gonna
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: end up on the most and then what are sort
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: of the fallbacks to the secondary and third? Like, if
• 38:11
  Speaker 3: they're not on that game stack, where's the next one
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: gonna be? Because it may be like part of the
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: common build where you see people landing, But I'm still
• 38:17
  Speaker 3: hearing a lot of people talk about the Brissette side
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: of that Seahawks game and the Donald side of that
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: game as well, So I'm wondering if that's the one
• 38:26
  Speaker 3: where you could just see a little bit of a
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: break a breakdown. I mean, I'll build for that in
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: some but in like my single entry, I think that's
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: what I'm gonna not go to when we get the
• 38:35
  Speaker 3: leverage lane, I think it's gonna be something different.
• 38:37
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think people are gonna go to that game
• 38:39
  Speaker 4: for sure. I think people are gonna use JJ McCarthy
• 38:41
  Speaker 4: as well with Minnesota and just kind of flip that
• 38:45
  Speaker 4: a little bit. And I think that that's a that's
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: an interesting one because even though you're using a forty
• 38:51
  Speaker 4: nine hundred dollars quarterback, it's not necessarily a cheap stack
• 38:54
  Speaker 4: as long as you're going to justin Jefferson, but it's
• 38:57
  Speaker 4: it's very similar to the Arizona stack in that way.
• 39:00
  Speaker 4: Right Like, if you're using per set, you're probably using
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: JSM as one of your pay ups. Same idea here,
• 39:07
  Speaker 4: You're you're still you know, building this this kind of
• 39:10
  Speaker 4: lineup that says, Okay, I'm gonna try to get to
• 39:12
  Speaker 4: two studs, but one of them is now just included
• 39:15
  Speaker 4: in the stack. So maybe it would be something like McCarthy, Jefferson,
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: Addison in Flowers, or maybe you even use Mark Andrews
• 39:23
  Speaker 4: as the bringback. Personally, I don't like that. I think
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: you made this point on the show with Pat, But yeah,
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: Mark Andrews gets their rescoring touchdowns, so I like I
• 39:31
  Speaker 4: like Flowers more as a bringback then I like Andrews.
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: But but you get the idea, right like, you're you're
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: you're going to McCarthy to save a lot of money
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: at that one quarterback spot so that you can still
• 39:42
  Speaker 4: get access to a lot of these studs, and you're
• 39:44
  Speaker 4: just now using the studs in a correlated way as well.
• 39:48
  Speaker 4: So I think that'll be used quite a bit the
• 39:51
  Speaker 4: one game that I expected to be crazy popular that
• 39:53
  Speaker 4: doesn't seem to be that popular in Chicago and New York.
• 39:56
  Speaker 4: I thought that would be like a massively popular game,
• 39:59
  Speaker 4: and I was actually projecting it that way prior to
• 40:02
  Speaker 4: the update that I did this morning, because I'm just
• 40:04
  Speaker 4: not seeing the signs of people really liking that game.
• 40:06
  Speaker 4: I honestly think that part of that, though, is people
• 40:09
  Speaker 4: looked at ownership for the first time this week, they saw,
• 40:12
  Speaker 4: oh my god, Wandell Robinson's at twenty percent. Again, I'm
• 40:15
  Speaker 4: not doing that right like they just did that last week.
• 40:17
  Speaker 4: Wandell did not really come through. Dart had a fine game,
• 40:20
  Speaker 4: but they didn't want to go back to that thought.
• 40:23
  Speaker 4: It looks like and Me's gonna play, so it's a
• 40:25
  Speaker 4: little bit harder to figure out how to stack Kaitla Williams.
• 40:27
  Speaker 4: Rome is coming off such an awful game, so I
• 40:30
  Speaker 4: think people were turned off to that game when they
• 40:34
  Speaker 4: saw ownership there. Now that around the industry, you're not
• 40:37
  Speaker 4: seeing a whole lot of ownership on that game, and
• 40:40
  Speaker 4: I'm not seeing like the signs of interest that I
• 40:42
  Speaker 4: was expecting to see from that game. Maybe people will
• 40:45
  Speaker 4: actually start to like it again and it'll get some
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: buzz again. But that to me is probably like the
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: clear and obvious pivot at the moment. I'm not sure
• 40:53
  Speaker 4: if there are too many other really cheap options. I
• 40:56
  Speaker 4: think you can do some really cheap stuff with Drake Maystacks.
• 40:59
  Speaker 4: He's not the cheapest, but if you're going you know,
• 41:03
  Speaker 4: Pop Douglas and Hunter Henry as your two, that makes
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: it really cheap. Or even if you're going May Digs
• 41:10
  Speaker 4: Hunter Henry, that probably qualifies more as like the mid
• 41:13
  Speaker 4: tier type stack that we talked about, where you're not
• 41:16
  Speaker 4: necessarily saving a ton of money in any one spot,
• 41:21
  Speaker 4: but you're also not spending in any one spot in
• 41:25
  Speaker 4: that stack. So that would be a really good way
• 41:27
  Speaker 4: to build a lineup that you know has only one
• 41:29
  Speaker 4: stud or has nobody over seventy five hundred dollars something
• 41:33
  Speaker 4: like that, So that one also could get some ownership.
• 41:35
  Speaker 4: But I think the theme of the week honestly is
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: that there's there isn't like a super common stack. It's
• 41:41
  Speaker 4: a structure that's going to be common, but there isn't
• 41:44
  Speaker 4: one that people are going with. So if you if
• 41:45
  Speaker 4: you have one that you have a lot of conviction
• 41:47
  Speaker 4: on it, I think you can play it however you want.
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I want to say it's definitely the weather that's
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: throwing people off this. So right now, the current projection
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: for that game is twenty five to thirty mile per
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: hour wins with potential for rain and snow. Again, it's Chicago,
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: much like you know in Philly, all these in New York,
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: all these plays.
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: I'm in Canada. It's no different here.
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: The weather could say one thing today and be something
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: totally different tomorrow. That would definitely be something. But the
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: chat's caught ontre here two talking about the weather scaring
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: people off. My man Jonesy's just on an absolute heater
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: over at the Nation says ninety percent chance of snow
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: for Chicago. Ge again, and if that's the case, that's
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: going to be part of it as well. But I
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: definitely think that's part of what's scared people off. I'll
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: think about it as I go through before we get
• 42:27
  Speaker 3: to the other stuff, But just to kind of give
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: a couple spots.
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: One is game by game quickly.
• 42:32
  Speaker 3: Like on the Panther side, Ted McMillan popped up on
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: the injury report. Now, if he's out, I think there's
• 42:37
  Speaker 3: already if your start for value an option. The chat
• 42:40
  Speaker 3: mentioned that I've been on a little bit thinking about
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: him last couple of weeks, but Jalen Cocher is thirty
• 42:45
  Speaker 3: three hundred. He would already be a leverage play as
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: an option there if you weren't on dubtle and if
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: you want value to make something work.
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: It's thin, but just a note.
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: Obviously it would get a lot nicer, a little bit
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: better if TET was out, and you'd feel good about
• 42:57
  Speaker 3: just sort of landing there. If you landed there, at
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: least I would, So I'll note that the other thing
• 43:02
  Speaker 3: is swift with the personal issue. It was like thinking
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: he's coming back the questionable tag. Now it looks a
• 43:08
  Speaker 3: little more murky. I was already interested in this, and
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: it may pick up steam by Sunday because people are
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: starved for value. But I like that he's fifty six hundred.
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: Is Manungai off last week? This is another great matchup
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: snow Rain, don't care. Why not just run the guy
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: into the ground right now? At fifty six hundred, I
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: think he becomes a spot to go to here on
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: this slate, if, especially if we get the swift news
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: in that game. I think he would fit no matter
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: what talked about Collins already, I'll move quicker, but Collins
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: against the Jags, d just Collins in general, sixty seven
• 43:38
  Speaker 3: hundred is a fair price. We already had a good
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: enough conversation I think around the Bills Dolphins. The one
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: thing I did want to bring up, though, back to
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: the JJ McCarthy and the gamestack factor there is you know,
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: can they push the Ravens. That's what it always comes
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: down to. We've had these conversations in the past. You
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: need a team that can be able to do it,
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: and I think they can. We just saw it last
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: week against Detroit where they could do it. They do
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: have Addison, Jefferson, they have Hawkinson, They've got a running
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: game there that they can move around and do some
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: stuff with. So a fair team total. I'm not saying
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: we're gonna see the JJ from last week, because I
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: didn't have much faith in them then. But the thing
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: about this stack is as much as Jefferson is seventy
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: nine hundred, McCarthy forty nine, opposite of Lamar, who's expensive,
• 44:20
  Speaker 3: and really it's too cheap for these quarterback prices, but
• 44:23
  Speaker 3: they left all the players this way this week.
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: Addison only fifty four.
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: And one of the most interesting things of this is
• 44:28
  Speaker 3: it's probably the better matchup anyway if you are going
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: against Minnesota is to get there on the ground. We
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: had interest in Gibbs, we had interest in Montgomery. People
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: were looking at those options.
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: Last week.
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: I say we as like as an industry, people were
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: looking at these spots. And now you get Dereck Henry
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: at sixty eight hundred. It's not that far off from
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: like a Doubdle or something like that. But I want
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: to put him in away. And you can play him
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: with Dawtell too, but I'm saying I want to put
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: him in a way that makes sense.
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: Well, what gets this game rolling is.
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: Him on the ground early, and then it's McCarthy needing
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: to keep pace and throw it back and forth. It
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: would also affect it further if you left Zay out,
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: who is thirty percent or whatever, ends up being twenty
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: to thirty percent whenever he comes in at in your tournament.
• 45:08
  Speaker 3: So I think those are some more interesting ones. We
• 45:11
  Speaker 3: talked about the Browns Jets already. We talked about Drake
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: May a little bit. I think the Drake May one
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: just people have people have a hard time stacking him,
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: and because if it's not Booty who's now out this week,
• 45:22
  Speaker 3: it really though it did get kind of thinner, So
• 45:24
  Speaker 3: you mentioned him quickly there, Alex. But like if you're
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: stacking him up, you have Digs Mayo, like Pop Douglas.
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: You've got Henry who looks like he's popular. But the
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: one I always use, there's one hundred people in the
• 45:34
  Speaker 3: room and ninety of them are leaving the room to
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: not play Hunter Henry, so it's not like he's that popular.
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: People like to call everything chalk. Ten percent wouldn't be
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: that bad. Do you have any thoughts? I guess my
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: question would be, you know, on the other side of
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: that game, I do think the total's big enough. I
• 45:48
  Speaker 3: think the spot's possible to really bad pass defenses on paper.
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: But do you have any other thoughts on the Tampa
• 45:54
  Speaker 3: Bay side of this game? To make Drake may move
• 45:57
  Speaker 3: so real quick?
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: I actually have Hunter Henry at twenty and a half percent,
• 46:00
  Speaker 4: so it'd be eighty percent of the of the room leaving,
• 46:03
  Speaker 4: not ninety.
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: But I would take the honor on that, and we
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: we tend to agree, but I don't again, people need value,
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: so I get where it's coming from. But part of
• 46:13
  Speaker 3: these people going to their you know, comfortable stacks, I
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: think always leads to a moonwalk, and I think that
• 46:19
  Speaker 3: could be the case with Henry. But I'll give you
• 46:21
  Speaker 3: like fifteen to twenties. That's fine even continue on.
• 46:24
  Speaker 4: Yeah, that's definitely possible. On the Tampa side, like I think,
• 46:28
  Speaker 4: I think Abouka might come in a little bit lower
• 46:30
  Speaker 4: than people expect just because the matchup is not good.
• 46:33
  Speaker 4: Like I made this point in my discord, but on
• 46:37
  Speaker 4: the year the New England pass defense, their numbers still
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: look pretty bad, but Christian Gonzales was out for the
• 46:45
  Speaker 4: first three weeks. Since he came back, they are number
• 46:48
  Speaker 4: two in past TV away so this is a much
• 46:52
  Speaker 4: much much better pass defense than their season long numbers
• 46:54
  Speaker 4: will because they were just that bad for the first
• 46:56
  Speaker 4: three weeks before their superstar corner came back. We just
• 47:00
  Speaker 4: saw Drake London do really really well against them, so
• 47:03
  Speaker 4: maybe that affects things. But as good as a book is,
• 47:07
  Speaker 4: he's not Drake London. Drake London is outstanding and he
• 47:11
  Speaker 4: made a lot of like outstanding contested catches, which is
• 47:14
  Speaker 4: not a Buuka's game at least at this point in
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: his career yet, so I think it's a really bad
• 47:19
  Speaker 4: spot firm. I think most people are going to kind
• 47:21
  Speaker 4: of agree and just think, you know what, he's too
• 47:24
  Speaker 4: close to Jefferson and Saint Brown. If I'm going to
• 47:27
  Speaker 4: pay seven thousand dollars for a book, guy, I can
• 47:29
  Speaker 4: find the thousand to get to one of those guys.
• 47:32
  Speaker 4: So that's kind of how I see that. But that
• 47:34
  Speaker 4: does make him a pretty good option as a bringback
• 47:37
  Speaker 4: to any may stuff. And I do think like you
• 47:39
  Speaker 4: could go to Test Johnson. I think it's gonna be
• 47:41
  Speaker 4: like ten percent. He could go to Rashad White and
• 47:44
  Speaker 4: just hope he scores multiple touchdowns, even though that's pretty ugly,
• 47:47
  Speaker 4: Like they can't run the ball against anyone. They're definitely
• 47:49
  Speaker 4: not gonna be able to run the ball against New England.
• 47:51
  Speaker 4: So you're just hoping that Rashad gets their own touchdowns
• 47:53
  Speaker 4: and receiving stuff. But yeah, I don't think any that's
• 47:56
  Speaker 4: necessarily bad or wrong to do. It's a it's an
• 48:00
  Speaker 4: interesting game because we know that people are going to
• 48:04
  Speaker 4: think of that game like it's two of the biggest
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: pass funnels in the league, right, Like both of those
• 48:09
  Speaker 4: run defenses are really good and both run offenses are
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: really bad. We should expect a lot of dropbacks in
• 48:17
  Speaker 4: that game. So from just a pure game environment perspective,
• 48:20
  Speaker 4: it is really really interesting, and I think a lot
• 48:23
  Speaker 4: of people are gonna have that thought and still not
• 48:25
  Speaker 4: land on it because they don't know how to stack,
• 48:26
  Speaker 4: they don't know how to play it. They don't have
• 48:28
  Speaker 4: any conviction on any of the individual players, even though
• 48:31
  Speaker 4: they agree conceptually it's a good spot for everyone in
• 48:34
  Speaker 4: the game.
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: Well, one thing I do like, you know, even if
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: Henry got to that ownership because he makes it cheaper,
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: is potentially going with something like people callings got the
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: MVP before. If you go to baker a Buca Tes
• 48:45
  Speaker 3: run it back with Henry, you can still get a again.
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: That's where I'm saying.
• 48:48
  Speaker 3: When it hits someone's like, oh I had all those
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: other right pieces, I just didn't land on that stack.
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: It's like, oh, I wasn't gonna play that loser chalk Henry.
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: But it's not who you play, it's how you play
• 48:58
  Speaker 3: them that would make some sense, and then you don't have.
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: To try and figure out the other side.
• 49:03
  Speaker 3: Even though may's fine, it's more we know May or
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: Baker could push the other. So if you like the
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: Drake May side better, I'm talking to people out there
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: watching by all means, go to that's that's the whole
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: point of leverage lane.
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: If that's your lane, go to it.
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: This is not my lane, but just making a note
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: and thinking about it, I don't see anywhere in the
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: world Iguka can get ownership on this slate yet. I
• 49:21
  Speaker 3: do think it's a pretty good spot. You look at
• 49:23
  Speaker 3: the props, you look at the matchup, you look at
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: the capability of can this game be pushed? It can,
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: and neither side you could. Really you can't really run
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: in this spot. And I'll tell you what, Patriots don't
• 49:33
  Speaker 3: seem to want to run anyway because they still can't
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: get this guy. We've been trying to make Henderson work
• 49:38
  Speaker 3: for weeks now. Just doesn't seem to be a thing.
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: So that's somewhat interesting just from that perspective. The other
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: thing is to alex as we rounded out here, it's
• 49:46
  Speaker 3: the last three games on the slate, kind of like
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: the way we're doing it today. These all have very
• 49:51
  Speaker 3: high interest in many ways, and there's definitely gonna be
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: late swap. There's always late swap. I shouldn't say like that,
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: like it's some revolutionary thing. Mind you, most people don't
• 49:59
  Speaker 3: do it at all, So you know, I'm guarantee you
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: that too. But this is a really interesting, even an
• 50:04
  Speaker 3: afternoon only slate, when you have Brissett, Darnold, Stafford, mac Jones, Goff,
• 50:10
  Speaker 3: and Mariota. These are all starting points for people. There's
• 50:14
  Speaker 3: all good game environments. What have we got all thirty Like,
• 50:19
  Speaker 3: we've got pretty much what forty seven and up for
• 50:21
  Speaker 3: game total on all three of these games. So I
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: guess the one spot we didn't spend a lot of
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: time on outside of a little bit of mentioning of
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: a Monra is the Lions spot. We did spend a
• 50:31
  Speaker 3: lot of time on Rams forty nine ers. We've definitely
• 50:33
  Speaker 3: spent time on Cardinals Seahawks. Do you want to finish
• 50:35
  Speaker 3: out just talking a little bit about this Detroit spot?
• 50:38
  Speaker 3: Thirty point team total, implied team total at home, any
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: thoughts on that?
• 50:42
  Speaker 4: Yeah, this is a game where I think the prevailing
• 50:45
  Speaker 4: narrative around the industry is this is one of those
• 50:47
  Speaker 4: spots where Detroit could run up the score. Right. It's
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: a rematch of the playoff game that they lost. They're
• 50:54
  Speaker 4: coming off one of their most underwhelming games of the
• 50:58
  Speaker 4: last few years, and Washington kind of stinks across the
• 51:03
  Speaker 4: board now, particularly no Jayden know Terry like this Detroit
• 51:07
  Speaker 4: defense should have a field day and offensively they can
• 51:09
  Speaker 4: probably do whatever they want here.
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: And so.
• 51:14
  Speaker 4: I'm thinking of this in a couple of ways. Like one,
• 51:17
  Speaker 4: I think you can absolutely go with golf triples. You
• 51:20
  Speaker 4: could go GoF Saint Brown, Jameson Williams, Samuel Porter and
• 51:23
  Speaker 4: hope he throws one of those five touchdown games. That's
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: a I think, a really good way to build this out.
• 51:28
  Speaker 4: I also think Jamier Gibbs might slip through the cracks
• 51:32
  Speaker 4: and he might be ten percent when McCaffrey, cook, a Chan,
• 51:37
  Speaker 4: Henry Judkins, Dowdell are all, you know, soaking up so
• 51:41
  Speaker 4: much ownership around him. And is there a better spot
• 51:44
  Speaker 4: for running back on this slate than Gibbs against Washington
• 51:48
  Speaker 4: throw last week out the window. Flores had a blitzing
• 51:52
  Speaker 4: plan that forced gibbshi Montgomery to be pass blockers every
• 51:56
  Speaker 4: drop back instead of being able to run routes, and
• 52:00
  Speaker 4: they ended up trusting Montgomery a little bit more in
• 52:02
  Speaker 4: that role. That's not going to affect who's on the field.
• 52:05
  Speaker 4: This week. We've seen Gibbs, you know, even in a
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: shared role, put up thirty nine point eight against Tampa.
• 52:12
  Speaker 4: That's that's the Tampa run defense we're talking about, Washington.
• 52:15
  Speaker 4: He has a massive, massive ceiling here. If I think
• 52:19
  Speaker 4: he's gonna slip into like seven percent eight percent, I'm
• 52:22
  Speaker 4: gonna play him, just point blank period. If I think
• 52:24
  Speaker 4: he's gonna be single digits, I'm gonna play him. But
• 52:28
  Speaker 4: I think it's also one of those spots where like
• 52:31
  Speaker 4: maybe you put I'm on rust Saint Brown in your
• 52:33
  Speaker 4: flex and if you need to get a little bit
• 52:35
  Speaker 4: more contrarian with late swap, you swap him to Gibbs
• 52:39
  Speaker 4: or something like that. But but yeah, it's it's a
• 52:42
  Speaker 4: really kind of incredible spot for the whole offense. And
• 52:45
  Speaker 4: I do think it's to me, he played a little
• 52:46
  Speaker 4: bit more than an ownership suggests. Like I have Jamison
• 52:49
  Speaker 4: Williams coming in over ten percent. I think most people
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: think he's gonna be seven percent, eight percent something like that.
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: Laporta I think is gonna be a little bit higher
• 52:57
  Speaker 4: than people expect. But Gibbs to me, is the one
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: that might actually slip at the cracks and be less
• 53:02
  Speaker 4: than people expect as people opt instead to go attack
• 53:05
  Speaker 4: that passing game.
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, one thing I love this week too again clearly
• 53:09
  Speaker 3: and currently start for value. Like we said, so, one
• 53:11
  Speaker 3: of the common things I'm seeing that this is a
• 53:13
  Speaker 3: double whammy. It's first of all, when you've already got CMC,
• 53:16
  Speaker 3: who's a thousand bucks more, less people like Gibbs really
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: triple whammy less people like Gibbs for that reason, Gibbs
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: failed everybody last week, and even the people that believe
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: what we believe, the chat doesn't always believe, but even
• 53:28
  Speaker 3: the people believe that we believe that the Lions could
• 53:30
  Speaker 3: come back with a chip on their shoulder and just
• 53:31
  Speaker 3: smash this. Jayden Daniels lists Commander's team now and be
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: able to get after it. They kind of want Montgomery
• 53:39
  Speaker 3: because it's like, oh, if I can just get a
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: five k running back, he at least can get something there.
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: So it leads to ten or eleven percent. Gibbs in
• 53:46
  Speaker 3: a great spot after everybody.
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: Loved him that this week.
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: The matchup's phenomenon, if they're actually going to be up,
• 53:50
  Speaker 3: it might get even better. The guy's electric with the
• 53:52
  Speaker 3: ball in hand, he's a thousand. Think of him as
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: a thousand less than McCaffrey in those bills, and you
• 53:57
  Speaker 3: think about ways to use that to your advantage. So
• 54:00
  Speaker 3: I think the Detroit spot's really good. I'm gonna be
• 54:01
  Speaker 3: mixing it up a ton. I've talked about this also
• 54:04
  Speaker 3: a ton in the past. While everybody else tries to
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: figure out cornerbackers, wide receiver and this, that and the
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: other and all these things, I just that's not my
• 54:11
  Speaker 3: lane's that's not my stuff when it comes to DFS.
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: I want to focus on the game and playing it.
• 54:15
  Speaker 3: And I think for single entry, I've got a different
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: spot that I'm gonna go, but it may include this
• 54:21
  Speaker 3: spot to what we just mentioned, but I will definitely
• 54:23
  Speaker 3: have some goff.
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: I thought about this from my leverage lane.
• 54:25
  Speaker 3: We're gonna get there in a second, but I thought
• 54:27
  Speaker 3: about like goff a'mnra Jamison Laporta, no run back and honestly,
• 54:31
  Speaker 3: maybe even putting the Lions d and just going full onslot.
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: I've done this in the.
• 54:35
  Speaker 3: Past in single entry or higher dollars, smaller field stuff.
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: You can really get away with that if you think
• 54:40
  Speaker 3: they're just gonna pop forty points on them and just crush.
• 54:42
  Speaker 3: That could be a way to do it. You don't
• 54:44
  Speaker 3: need to run it back, you can shorten it, you
• 54:46
  Speaker 3: can do whatever you want as far as the sax
• 54:47
  Speaker 3: size goes here. But I definitely think there's just a
• 54:50
  Speaker 3: chance that the Lions just crush and score a ton
• 54:52
  Speaker 3: of points, and I'm gonna want to be involved if
• 54:54
  Speaker 3: that happens.
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: So I think that's kind of it.
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 54:57
  Speaker 3: On everything else, if people think we miss stuff, by
• 54:59
  Speaker 3: all means, can hit us up in the chat if
• 55:02
  Speaker 3: you want to go through more. But do you have
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: anything else, Alex before we get to our lane, I
• 55:06
  Speaker 3: do not.
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: All right, I'll let you start it off. Man, I
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: don't think we're on the same one at all, so
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: I'll let you go ahead first.
• 55:12
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I wasn't entirely sure which one I was gonna
• 55:15
  Speaker 4: go with. I think there's a very good chance that
• 55:18
  Speaker 4: the thing I end up feeling the strongest about is
• 55:21
  Speaker 4: is dart stacks. I'd like to see how the weather
• 55:25
  Speaker 4: report looks. I'm not I'm very rarely kind of turned
• 55:29
  Speaker 4: off by weather. The combination though of snow and wind
• 55:34
  Speaker 4: or rain and wind. That's where I do think you
• 55:36
  Speaker 4: get a little bit dicey. So if if one of
• 55:39
  Speaker 4: the two kind of doesn't look that way comes Sunday,
• 55:42
  Speaker 4: whether it's the wind is actually laying down even though
• 55:44
  Speaker 4: it's gonna rain or snow a little bit, or it's
• 55:47
  Speaker 4: gonna be windy, but there's no precipitation anymore. I think
• 55:50
  Speaker 4: that's where I'll end up going. But my leverage lane
• 55:53
  Speaker 4: is going to be kind of a very contrariant thought,
• 55:56
  Speaker 4: which is to pair Phuka Nakua with kyn william Obviously,
• 56:01
  Speaker 4: most people are going to just kind of choose their
• 56:03
  Speaker 4: favorite Ram if they really like this game. But I
• 56:05
  Speaker 4: think this sets up as one of those games where
• 56:07
  Speaker 4: the Rams offense is going to be able to do
• 56:09
  Speaker 4: whatever they want every single possession. You're going to see
• 56:13
  Speaker 4: chunk play after chunk play to Pooka. You're going to
• 56:15
  Speaker 4: see a lot of touchdown equity for Kyron Williams. I
• 56:18
  Speaker 4: think we could get something like, you know, twelve for
• 56:21
  Speaker 4: one point fifty and a score from Pooka and combine
• 56:23
  Speaker 4: that with one hundred yard bonus and two or three
• 56:26
  Speaker 4: touchdowns for Kyron Williams. I think they both have a
• 56:29
  Speaker 4: path to a ceiling together. And I just want to
• 56:31
  Speaker 4: be on this offense in a big way. But we
• 56:33
  Speaker 4: talked through earlier how difficult it is to actually pull
• 56:36
  Speaker 4: off a Stafford double stack. So if I'm not going
• 56:40
  Speaker 4: to try the Stafford double, how do I go all
• 56:43
  Speaker 4: in on this offense? I pair a running back with
• 56:45
  Speaker 4: the receiver. Stafford's not going to get there. If Kyron
• 56:48
  Speaker 4: scores multiple touchdowns, but that offense could very easily still
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: score five touchdowns total. And if I get three or
• 56:54
  Speaker 4: four of those from this Puka and Kyroen combination and
• 56:57
  Speaker 4: they both hit one hundred yard bonus, you're going to
• 56:59
  Speaker 4: see both of them in optimal lineup. So I think
• 57:03
  Speaker 4: that's gonna be my leverage lane. It's the combo of
• 57:06
  Speaker 4: Puka and Kyroene. Let them go nuts.
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: One very thing I mean, I'm not picking on banking
• 57:11
  Speaker 3: today is in here. I appreciate all the engagement. But
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: one of the biggest leaks and misconceptions and people in
• 57:15
  Speaker 3: DFS is the score, meaning the points. Obviously, the more score,
• 57:19
  Speaker 3: the higher the score you can have, the more points
• 57:20
  Speaker 3: that are out there. But in a twenty four to
• 57:22
  Speaker 3: nineteen you could have three optimal plays from that game.
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: It's all who scores the points to his point.
• 57:28
  Speaker 3: What if the twenty four is the Rams and it's
• 57:30
  Speaker 3: a touchdown, ten catches and one hundred and seventy for
• 57:33
  Speaker 3: Puka and it's two touchdowns from Williams on the ground,
• 57:37
  Speaker 3: that's two options right there. And that's not even at
• 57:40
  Speaker 3: twenty four points. That's the three touchdowns and then there's
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: a field goal in there. So just to throw that
• 57:44
  Speaker 3: out there, the score doesn't always matter when it comes
• 57:47
  Speaker 3: to the actual output of the lineup. I think that's
• 57:49
  Speaker 3: a big mistake a lot of people or this Bears
• 57:52
  Speaker 3: team sucks. They only got a nineteen point team total.
• 57:54
  Speaker 3: And then DJ Moore catches ten catches, one hundred yards,
• 57:58
  Speaker 3: a touchdown and throws a touchdown. It's like, wow, they
• 58:01
  Speaker 3: only put up two touchdowns, but he was in on
• 58:02
  Speaker 3: both of them, and that's part of the thought process,
• 58:05
  Speaker 3: So you can get there in these spots.
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: Still, that's a note anyone.
• 58:08
  Speaker 4: I also, yeah, I also just don't agree that the
• 58:10
  Speaker 4: game is going under. Maybe it goes under because San
• 58:12
  Speaker 4: Francisco doesn't produce, But give me the overall day on
• 58:16
  Speaker 4: the Los Angeles team total, like I said, nineteen of
• 58:18
  Speaker 4: twenty two, two hundred yards and two touchdowns just attacking
• 58:21
  Speaker 4: the middle of the field in the last two games.
• 58:23
  Speaker 4: That's a Nico Collins list, CJ. Stroud and Jackson Dark Stafford,
• 58:29
  Speaker 4: and this offense, I think is going to absolutely shred
• 58:31
  Speaker 4: them just posts like an absolutely massive success rate some explosives,
• 58:35
  Speaker 4: but they don't even need the explosives, right, And if
• 58:37
  Speaker 4: they don't get the explosives, that makes it even more
• 58:40
  Speaker 4: likely that two of these guys hit together because it
• 58:42
  Speaker 4: means you get a Pookah twenty yard reception and now
• 58:46
  Speaker 4: a Kyron eight yard run, now a Pookah twelve yard reception,
• 58:48
  Speaker 4: now Kyron eight yard reception, and they just stack the
• 58:52
  Speaker 4: points on top of each other, on top of each other,
• 58:54
  Speaker 4: and they get the touchdown. So I love them together
• 58:56
  Speaker 4: and I just love attacking that game or whatever we
• 58:59
  Speaker 4: can too.
• 59:00
  Speaker 3: And that's why I was hoping you would just stop
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: after you said the dart stuff, because you leaked in
• 59:04
  Speaker 3: a little bit to mine. But it is different, So
• 59:06
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna go heavy on mine again this week. I'll
• 59:08
  Speaker 3: put four pieces to it in just a second. But
• 59:10
  Speaker 3: one thing I want to note, actually very interesting, because
• 59:12
  Speaker 3: you did bring up the dart stuff, is the Vegas
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: total does not have any fear of the weather either
• 59:19
  Speaker 3: as of yet. To me what I'm seeing, if you
• 59:21
  Speaker 3: go look at some of these Vegas odds and insiders stuff,
• 59:24
  Speaker 3: it actually looks like the total has rose from forty
• 59:26
  Speaker 3: three and a half open, which is just an opening line,
• 59:29
  Speaker 3: but it's up to forty seven now for that line.
• 59:32
  Speaker 3: So I mean, like, it doesn't seem like they're very
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: scared of the weather in this spot, So at least
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: that's something to keep in mind.
• 59:38
  Speaker 4: I think part of that, by the way, is because
• 59:40
  Speaker 4: the Giants run defense is like totally inept, So even
• 59:45
  Speaker 4: if there's bad weather, Chicago at the very least should
• 59:48
  Speaker 4: be able to move the ball and score. I don't
• 59:51
  Speaker 4: want to say anything else on that because I'm afraid
• 59:53
  Speaker 4: it might be your leverage lane, but I I just.
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: Want to note it for you because you've brought up
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: the dart stuff and I like that.
• 59:59
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I do think the just like in general, whether
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 4: we think it's Manungai or whether we think it's Swift,
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 4: I am very confident that one of those two is
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 4: going to have a really really good game. I don't
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 4: know who's gonna run ahead of the other. I don't
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 4: know who's going to get the touchdowns. But I'm very
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 4: confident that one of those guys is a really good game.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 4: So maybe the movie is just like bet the the
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 4: over on the on the rushing for both of those
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 4: guys and then not mess with it from a DFS perspective.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 4: But if anyone out there, like, if you feel like
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 4: man I just don't like the dow Roll chalk, or
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 4: I don't like the Judkins chalk, right, I don't like
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 4: any running backs in that range. And you want to
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 4: take a chance on a sixty one hundred Swift or
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 4: a fifty six hundred Manongui, I'm all for it. One
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 4: of those two is gonna have a really good game.
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 3: Yeah one No two is again like I SAIDISTI about
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 3: wait on the Swift stuff, but right now my book
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 3: moved it quite a bit. Actually is Manungui has a
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 3: fifty five and a half rush yard prop to the
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: fifty one and a half for Swift. It converted it
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 3: already based on the news. Obviously that's not like rocket science,
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 3: but they both are. But Swift is still minus one
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 3: twenty five. I have to score anytime touchdown and Manunguy
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 3: is minus one zho five. So again an interesting thing
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 3: would be, like you could go pair up the manungui
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: anytime and the over on the rush yards. It might
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 3: still happen even if Swift plays, but if he doesn't,
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 3: you're you're way ahead of the curve, and that's you
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 3: taking the bet when they're willing to offer it. So
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 3: I think that's part of the thought process as well,
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 3: just in case. And the other thing I mentioned this
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 3: last week and it ended up coming true, and I'll
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 3: say it again, is lots of good team totals and
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 3: things to look at out there. We always talk about today.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 3: We talked about with Detroit, We're talking about it with
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: the Rams and some of these other teams. But you
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 3: have to take note when a team like the Chicago
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 3: Bears have almost a twenty eight point team total or
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 3: something on the road last week in that matchup again,
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: still sitting there right now with like a twenty six
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 3: twenty seven range when it comes to their their team
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 3: total at home and again whether aside they got to
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 3: put those points up somehow.
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: So definitely think that's something to consider.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: But my leverage lane, I'm gonna fully commit to this
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 3: now because I was gonna go I was gonna halfway
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 3: in on this and just get there, you know, and
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 3: say Pooka and Kittle because I like that Pookah cost
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 3: McCaffrey money. It's really tricky to put them all together.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 3: While I would prefer to have McCaffrey, that would be great,
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 3: maybe in my MM sets or something. There's some unique
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 3: versions of that that I get where it makes sense.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 3: But for my single jury and my leverage lane, I'm
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 3: gonna go to the opposite side. I think for Stafford
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 3: to have the big game, he's gonna need to be pushed.
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna go to mac Jones, George Kittle, Poka Nakua,
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 3: and I'm gonna add the fourth I gotta I'm not
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 3: I guess I'll stop at three. But I'll say this,
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 3: there's a high likelihood that I get Jamior Gibbs into
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 3: this lineup as well as the way to sort of
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 3: point put out the Nikua over McCaffrey for big spend
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 3: while still spending at running back and then finding some
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 3: value plays across the middle. It's a little bit expensive
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 3: with Nikua and Gibbs, but when you add in mac
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 3: Jones and Kittle, and I'm hoping that Kittle eats the
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 3: touchdowns up. Obviously, the point of like my Mark Andrews
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 3: piece yesterday with Mayo is it like I don't really
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 3: want him just as a run back for it, because
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 3: if he gets there, I think it really helps the
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 3: Lamar side more so, I wouldn't really love that in
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 3: a JJ McCarthy side.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go with Mac Jones.
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 3: Pooka, George Kittle, and I'll throw Gibbs in there too,
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 3: even though he's not in that game. He's not about
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 3: the game STAF. People are wondering what that means. It's
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 3: because he would be the guy for a thousand bucks
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 3: less than McCaffrey. And I really like the Gibbs spot
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 3: this week when nobody else does. After just a great
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 3: spot last week fell through, I think they're gonna come
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 3: back and find those points. So that's gonna be my
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 3: leverage lane for this week. Final thoughts, Alex, anything you
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 3: want to add there and then let the people know
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 3: where they can find you.
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 4: I like that a lot. I think you could also
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 4: use the double bringback if you wanted, right, Mac Jones,
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 4: George Kittle and then go Pooka and Kyron and just
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 4: kind of combine those those two Leverage Lanes, but yeah,
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 4: you can find me at Alex booka one on Twitter,
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 4: all the ownership stuff from FTN. You can use promo
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 4: code blick for ten percent off there. And then as
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 4: I mentioned, like last week, we've gotten a ton of
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 4: people into my discord from Leverage Lane, from Mastermind, really
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 4: adding to the community. Everyone who's coming. It's been awesome,
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 4: So appreciate all you guys. And if you guys want
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 4: to continue to kind of see what's up there, promo
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 4: code Leverage will get you ten percent off forever in
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 4: my discord.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's awesome, man, It's good stuff and a lot
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 3: of stuff that you take that we talk about you
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 3: can apply to the props, the pick thems, the things
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 3: like that.
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: We've talked about our deal with Splash.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 3: If you guys want to get it on Splash, the
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 3: one and dons are starting to pop up and that
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 3: sort of thing. So make sure to get the fifty
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 3: dollars deposit bonus. Even if you're not using it till
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 3: golf comes back or whatever it might be. You want
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 3: to get in while you can get that bonus, So
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: go to Splash, use code ship it, and then if
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 3: you want to get in at ship it Nation for
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 3: the rest of the season through Super Bowl. It's more
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 3: than half price to the normal full season, and we
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 3: still have half the regular season left, plus the playoffs
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 3: plus super Bowl. One ninety nine gets you ship at
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  Speaker 3: games Entry. It includes saber sim It gets all the tools, data,
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 3: the discord, et cetera. And then you also get a
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 3: chance to win a five to fifty five million maker ticket. Alex,
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 3: this was awesome. Hope everyone appreciates it. Make sure to
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• 1:05:00
  Speaker 3: up while you're there.
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: It helps us out a ton.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe to the channel for Alex for
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 3: myself to tag and tambo let ship it