Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / NFL Week 17 Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Strategy
Transcript
- 0:04Speaker 1: All system's going clear the left.
- 0:36Speaker 2: What's up everyone? Tyler Tamberline here aka Totag and Tambo
- 0:39Speaker 2: back for Week seventeen of Leverage Lane. We're calling this
- 0:43Speaker 2: the final of the year. Got my man Alex Buckle
- 0:45Speaker 2: here with me as always. Hope everyone's got to enjoy
- 0:47Speaker 2: their holidays with friends, family, food, drinks and whatever makes
- 0:50Speaker 2: you happy. But we'll be back. You know, we're gonna
- 0:53Speaker 2: talk through this late really quick. We're back. We're gonna
- 0:54Speaker 2: talk through nine games. We're gonna talk about it from
- 0:57Speaker 2: a single entry GPP perspective as usual, we do. You
- 1:00Speaker 2: have a big announcement, but you know we're not giving
- 1:02Speaker 2: you that right away. We love to tease, so we'll
- 1:04Speaker 2: save that one until the end. It's exciting, but then
- 1:06Speaker 2: also a lot to talk about on this slate with
- 1:08Speaker 2: some of the big games and all of that. So
- 1:10Speaker 2: we'll talk about an ownership perspective, what does the common
- 1:12Speaker 2: build look like, how can we leverage that common build?
- 1:15Speaker 2: And then of course at the end we'll get to
- 1:17Speaker 2: our leverage lane. Mister Alex Blickel, we're back. What's going on?
- 1:20Speaker 2: And man, how you doing?
- 1:22Speaker 3: We are really really fun.
- 1:24Speaker 4: Like last week and a half, if you will of
- 1:26Speaker 4: the NFL is a really fun weekend. Honestly, Tima, it's
- 1:30Speaker 4: been such a weird season. Like I've had a really
- 1:33Speaker 4: good props here. I've had a really really good showdown here.
- 1:36Speaker 4: Just had a great showdown in this past Monday. My
- 1:40Speaker 4: main slates have been completely uneventful since week one, so
- 1:44Speaker 4: hopefully we can buck that trend. Have a couple of
- 1:46Speaker 4: tickets now in these last few weeks, so I'm gonna
- 1:49Speaker 4: need to turn around that way.
- 1:51Speaker 2: Yeah, it can easily turn around though, because I know
- 1:53Speaker 2: some of the tickets you've been picking up Mega Millies
- 1:54Speaker 2: and Ultimate. What do you got for tomorrow? You got
- 1:57Speaker 2: you for the Ultimate?
- 1:58Speaker 3: No, I don't.
- 1:59Speaker 4: I have a Megamilli four thousand and four forty four ticket,
- 2:03Speaker 4: but they don't have one of those this week.
- 2:05Speaker 2: So it's okay running that big thirty three thirty three
- 2:08Speaker 2: this week with two point five up top. So I'm
- 2:10Speaker 2: debating what to do with that. I only have one
- 2:12Speaker 2: ticket for it, but I kind of feel like, you know,
- 2:15Speaker 2: maybe I'll throw an extra one. We'll see.
- 2:17Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean this is I think this is kind
- 2:19Speaker 4: of like a good conversation topic too. I have tried
- 2:22Speaker 4: extremely hard every single week to get Mega Milli tickets.
- 2:25Speaker 3: I haven't tried that hard.
- 2:26Speaker 4: To get the main event tickets for the point that
- 2:29Speaker 4: you kind of just made, which is, if you only
- 2:32Speaker 4: have one and you're going up against you know, the
- 2:35Speaker 4: best t best players and they have.
- 2:37Speaker 3: Thirty whatever like it or more.
- 2:39Speaker 4: It's gonna be really, really tough because of the types
- 2:42Speaker 4: of you know, inverse correlation type things that they can
- 2:44Speaker 4: do in those lineups where you really are at a
- 2:47Speaker 4: disadvantage when you only have one. And so I feel like,
- 2:51Speaker 4: you know, that disadvantage is smaller in a smaller contest
- 2:54Speaker 4: like the Megamilli usually is. The Megamilli usually has something
- 2:57Speaker 4: like seven hundred people, and I think this ultimate main
- 2:59Speaker 4: event contest is over three thousand if I saw correctly.
- 3:02Speaker 4: So I'm kind of curious to your thoughts there. Do
- 3:04Speaker 4: you kind of pay attention to that when you're looking
- 3:06Speaker 4: for tickets, because I think, like, why why try for
- 3:09Speaker 4: a ticket into a contest that you don't feel like
- 3:12Speaker 4: you have an edgine?
- 3:13Speaker 2: Yeah, I think for me, it's you definitely try to
- 3:15Speaker 2: get more or I could always buy more if I
- 3:17Speaker 2: wanted to, but I don't typically and you know, usually
- 3:19Speaker 2: it goes a little bit better. This has been a
- 3:20Speaker 2: rough outing. I looked, I'm down a few hundred dollars
- 3:24Speaker 2: playing for these tickets and I only got one out
- 3:26Speaker 2: of it typically, But i mean, look, you guys know
- 3:28Speaker 2: how this goes, and you particularly know how this goes
- 3:30Speaker 2: from the ticket streets. Those seconds were just number to them,
- 3:32Speaker 2: like it doesn't even matter, or third or you know,
- 3:34Speaker 2: seventh when the top six get one, like it's I
- 3:37Speaker 2: have a bunch of those. So I could have easily
- 3:38Speaker 2: had five to seven tickets. Last year I had five
- 3:41Speaker 2: in it, so kind of that was the thought process
- 3:43Speaker 2: going in. It doesn't always work out, but I'm very
- 3:44Speaker 2: comfortable still playing it from that perspective. I think your
- 3:47Speaker 2: your points and advice are definitely sound, and certainly for
- 3:49Speaker 2: somebody just playing it, you know, off the you know
- 3:51Speaker 2: the streets or what do you want to call it,
- 3:53Speaker 2: like just jumping in to jump in. It's not always
- 3:55Speaker 2: the best case, but I'll be more than fine just
- 3:57Speaker 2: fading a ton of good stuff that other people are
- 3:59Speaker 2: gonna love it that I'm just not going to go there,
- 4:01Speaker 2: and I'll play it completely different because if not, you're
- 4:03Speaker 2: not gonna give yourself really any opportunity. Anybody with max
- 4:07Speaker 2: entries is gonna have whatever your your second best idea
- 4:09Speaker 2: is is typically going to be covered still, as is
- 4:11Speaker 2: your third, fourth, fifth. So not saying to get completely
- 4:14Speaker 2: out of the you know, into the weeds, but definitely
- 4:16Speaker 2: got to get different than what the rest of the
- 4:18Speaker 2: competition is doing, and we'll talk about that on this
- 4:20Speaker 2: very show. So listen, let's start here. Last week, I
- 4:24Speaker 2: will say this, we did talk about this last week.
- 4:27Speaker 2: We started with a game, and we're gonna do it
- 4:28Speaker 2: again this week. We're gonna start with, of course, the
- 4:30Speaker 2: Arizona at Sincy game. It's not often you've got the
- 4:33Speaker 2: Bengals with a big total like this, over thirty implied
- 4:36Speaker 2: team total at home. Joe Burrow, we saw what he
- 4:38Speaker 2: did last week. But we did start with the Lions
- 4:42Speaker 2: Pittsburgh game last week. And what's interesting about this week.
- 4:46Speaker 2: So the Lions game, a lot of people were chasing,
- 4:48Speaker 2: not necessarily it was still a good game, but people
- 4:50Speaker 2: were chasing what they missed out on. Right. They didn't
- 4:52Speaker 2: get too GoF Amen Ra and Jamison Williams to break
- 4:54Speaker 2: the slate the week before, so there was like, oh,
- 4:57Speaker 2: we can go back there now with Pittsburgh. It's a
- 4:58Speaker 2: perfect setup. DK Mex has too cheap et cetera, et cetera.
- 5:02Speaker 2: Usually when something like that, bus people aren't super high
- 5:05Speaker 2: on it. But realistically, I think Alex at least what
- 5:08Speaker 2: they're chasing is everybody missed out on Burrow throwing for
- 5:11Speaker 2: four touchdowns and proving himself down. So now they're like, oh,
- 5:13Speaker 2: and the McBride against Sincy stuff, and you just add
- 5:16Speaker 2: it all together, it seems like the perfect storm. So
- 5:18Speaker 2: what is your thoughts will start there with this Arizona
- 5:21Speaker 2: since he game this definitely looks like on paper the
- 5:24Speaker 2: place to be this week for only nine games, et cetera,
- 5:27Speaker 2: et cetera. That you take it from there.
- 5:29Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, so the the Detroit Pittsburgh game last week,
- 5:33Speaker 4: it did have a somewhat clear path. The failing which
- 5:38Speaker 4: was GoF gets pressured because GoF his pressure splits are
- 5:42Speaker 4: among the most severe in the in the entire NFL,
- 5:45Speaker 4: where like, when he's pressured, he's not good. When he
- 5:47Speaker 4: isn't pressure he's great. Now, I kind of looked at
- 5:51Speaker 4: that matchup last week and said, hey, there's no TJ.
- 5:53Speaker 4: Watten thought the chance that he gets pressured all game
- 5:55Speaker 4: are pretty low, but Pittsburgh ended up being able to
- 5:58Speaker 4: do that, So it wasn't shocked to see that game fail.
- 6:01Speaker 4: When I look at this Arizona Cincinnati game, there isn't
- 6:04Speaker 4: a clear path to the game underwhelming, right, and so
- 6:08Speaker 4: I don't necessarily want to play any of it. But
- 6:13Speaker 4: I also don't know what fading this game looks like.
- 6:17Speaker 4: And you know, it's just it's really really tough in
- 6:22Speaker 4: that way. So I'm very much looking forward to talking
- 6:24Speaker 4: through this one with you because I don't have a
- 6:26Speaker 4: clear picture of if I'm fading this, how am I
- 6:28Speaker 4: fading it?
- 6:29Speaker 3: But also I don't have a clear picture of if
- 6:30Speaker 3: I'm playing it, how am I playing it?
- 6:32Speaker 4: Because Jamaar Chase is going to be like over forty
- 6:34Speaker 4: percent owned, I think Chase Brown is now overpriced. That
- 6:38Speaker 4: to me, like, if anyone's chasing any part of this game,
- 6:42Speaker 4: it's any ownership that Chase Brown gets over seven thousand
- 6:46Speaker 4: dollars and an almost fifty to fifty split with p
- 6:49Speaker 4: Ryan is solely because he ran hot.
- 6:51Speaker 3: On touchdowns last week. Otherwise there's no chance that he'd
- 6:54Speaker 3: have this ownership.
- 6:55Speaker 4: So yeah, it's a really tough game to kind of
- 6:58Speaker 4: think through and figure either how to play or how
- 7:01Speaker 4: to fait.
- 7:02Speaker 2: Yeah, I think one of the things about this one,
- 7:03Speaker 2: I liked your comment there, just around the setup of
- 7:06Speaker 2: with last week's you could actually see a path of
- 7:08Speaker 2: failure and this one you you you don't necessarily see
- 7:11Speaker 2: it as easily. For example, you're like, well, I actually
- 7:13Speaker 2: don't see how this would happen. So to me, what
- 7:15Speaker 2: that says, and I agree with you one hundred percent,
- 7:17Speaker 2: is that that's the possibility. But if you're if you
- 7:20Speaker 2: were looking to be on it, it feels like you
- 7:22Speaker 2: kind of got to be on it and then look
- 7:24Speaker 2: for ways to get different, whether it's a super over
- 7:26Speaker 2: game stack. But even then they'll start to pick up
- 7:28Speaker 2: a little bit of steam. It probably has to be
- 7:30Speaker 2: something with like a p Ryan or a Gaseki or
- 7:32Speaker 2: a Yoshi vas or you know, double tight end with
- 7:35Speaker 2: Gaseki and McBride or something along those lines. I think
- 7:37Speaker 2: people will definitely still get there. But I think one
- 7:40Speaker 2: of the things that you see in these high scoring games,
- 7:42Speaker 2: and we've seen it in the past with Buffalo and
- 7:45Speaker 2: since the games before, where they can still get there,
- 7:49Speaker 2: which we are saying we still see happening, but it's
- 7:52Speaker 2: so spread out or it's randomness of who gets it
- 7:55Speaker 2: this that, And like last week, even people were so
- 7:56Speaker 2: happy to be on Chase Brown until they realize you
- 7:59Speaker 2: need to Chase Bread with his quarterback because three of
- 8:01Speaker 2: them got thrown to the week before. Like etn Junior
- 8:03Speaker 2: finally comes through no no tooting, and it's like, oh,
- 8:06Speaker 2: but you need him. With Trevor Lawrence, it's like, so
- 8:08Speaker 2: how often are people setting this up? Sometimes they're actually
- 8:10Speaker 2: setting up to avoid that. So one thing for me
- 8:13Speaker 2: is like, if I'm not in on this game, I
- 8:16Speaker 2: don't know, you tell me because you're usually the best
- 8:17Speaker 2: at figuring this out. But like the Chase Jamar Chase
- 8:22Speaker 2: with McBride secondary stack, I know there's a ton of
- 8:26Speaker 2: different quarterbacks you can fit it with, right, you could
- 8:28Speaker 2: get to some other quarterbacks on the slate and cheaper stacks,
- 8:31Speaker 2: But how bad is that with the fact that if
- 8:33Speaker 2: those two actually sealing out on this slate, that's pretty
- 8:36Speaker 2: pretty well set up that you're gonna need Burrow or
- 8:38Speaker 2: Brissette at that point, wouldn't you?
- 8:40Speaker 4: Yeah?
- 8:40Speaker 3: One hundred percent like that to me.
- 8:41Speaker 4: That's so it's kind of a great place to start here,
- 8:45Speaker 4: is once again, as we've talked about kind of all season,
- 8:49Speaker 4: you either should play the game or fade the game,
- 8:53Speaker 4: not try and find the middle ground. And a lot
- 8:55Speaker 4: of the time we've we've had this conversation this year,
- 8:57Speaker 4: it's turned out that we should totally play it. Like
- 8:59Speaker 4: two weeks ago, that Detroit game, you totally played it.
- 9:02Speaker 4: You did really well. Last week we said the same
- 9:04Speaker 4: thing about the Detroit Pittsburgh game, because what if you
- 9:07Speaker 4: faded the game, or specifically if you used either game
- 9:10Speaker 4: Well or Warren as a one off and just said,
- 9:12Speaker 4: I want the game to fail because Pittsburgh actually controls
- 9:15Speaker 4: things instead of Detroit, which then makes Pittsburgh more aggressive,
- 9:18Speaker 4: and that's how the game goes off. Like that would
- 9:20Speaker 4: have been spectacular. And so this this idea of fully
- 9:26Speaker 4: embrace and games stack the crap out of it, or
- 9:29Speaker 4: hope the game fails in a clear way like that,
- 9:33Speaker 4: just it's so clearly been the way to go all season.
- 9:35Speaker 4: And I think even though we don't see the path
- 9:38Speaker 4: to failure this week, we should still take that same
- 9:40Speaker 4: thought it. So maybe the answer is Michael Carter only
- 9:43Speaker 4: and hope the Arizona defense actually slows down burrow a
- 9:46Speaker 4: little bit, or if they give up production, it's as
- 9:49Speaker 4: you said, like Yosibash or you know, Drew Sample, like
- 9:54Speaker 4: those guys are scoring the touchdowns instead of Chase Higgins
- 9:58Speaker 4: Chase Brown. And then you know you're getting the Michael
- 10:00Speaker 4: Carter touched in on the ground instead ofsett throwing the ball.
- 10:03Speaker 4: And now if Arizona actually has a lead, you're not
- 10:06Speaker 4: getting the Brissette drop back, you know, forty seven pass
- 10:10Speaker 4: attempt type game that that he's crushing in so often
- 10:13Speaker 4: this year. So yeah, I think that's that's probably my
- 10:16Speaker 4: lean is is playing the game in that way. But I,
- 10:21Speaker 4: like I said, I don't I don't feel like super
- 10:23Speaker 4: strongly about any part of this game.
- 10:25Speaker 3: I just know it's likely to succeed.
- 10:28Speaker 4: And there there isn't a clear story that I know
- 10:32Speaker 4: I can tell for.
- 10:33Speaker 3: How the game fails.
- 10:34Speaker 2: Yeah, so a couple of things on that that I'll add.
- 10:36Speaker 2: Just what you know, I love all those thoughts and
- 10:37Speaker 2: the chats talking about a little bit is how many
- 10:39Speaker 2: This is where people get it confused, because like, oh,
- 10:41Speaker 2: everyone's just gonna overstack this game. But some of the
- 10:44Speaker 2: names you mentioned, like the chat talked about Elijah Higgins,
- 10:47Speaker 2: not just t. Higgins, what about Higgins Squared? What about
- 10:49Speaker 2: the Drew Samples, the Yoshi Boss. That's where people, especially
- 10:52Speaker 2: in single entry, will get scared, right, I'm not doing
- 10:55Speaker 2: that's just too good. They'll say things like that's too
- 10:58Speaker 2: aggressive or that's too You don't need to do that
- 11:01Speaker 2: in single You need to do what you need to
- 11:03Speaker 2: do in the end. Like if whatever the highest scores,
- 11:05Speaker 2: remember there's gonna be someone playing single entry that isn't scared.
- 11:09Speaker 2: And when you're saying scared money, don't make money like that,
- 11:11Speaker 2: that's the thing. It's typically true. Somebody's gonna do it.
- 11:14Speaker 2: And if they got you, they got you. Now I
- 11:16Speaker 2: want to talk about it the other way because again
- 11:18Speaker 2: not saying it's gonna happen again or all this, but
- 11:20Speaker 2: I guess if you were truly believing in the Bengals,
- 11:23Speaker 2: I guess you could take it from a perspective of
- 11:25Speaker 2: last week. In the Detroit spot, we said, well, what
- 11:29Speaker 2: if it is Gibbs getting these long touchdowns on the
- 11:32Speaker 2: ground that would then take away and pull from others. Now,
- 11:35Speaker 2: I don't think Chase Brown's gonna be under owned or
- 11:38Speaker 2: over owned. I think it's gonna be somewhere you know,
- 11:39Speaker 2: Goldilocks zone right there, just right in the middle. But
- 11:42Speaker 2: I do think that that would have to be the thought, like,
- 11:45Speaker 2: is it like a Chase Brown with a Bengals D.
- 11:48Speaker 2: Is it and do something different that way? Is it
- 11:50Speaker 2: a Higgins one off? And you're like, you know what,
- 11:52Speaker 2: even though Higgins having the big game would probably be
- 11:54Speaker 2: with Burrow, most those Higgins stacks are gonna be game stacks.
- 11:58Speaker 2: And what if it is just Higgins has a eight
- 12:00Speaker 2: for one oh five one game and he's like that
- 12:03Speaker 2: I can get to Like on the other right, Cardinals
- 12:07Speaker 2: defense ship. We just saw the Millionmaker, the twenty dollars
- 12:10Speaker 2: million Maker. I know we talked single entry GPP focus,
- 12:12Speaker 2: but the single the Millionmaker last week had Bowers gent
- 12:17Speaker 2: and the Vegas dhere versus everyone was just on the
- 12:20Speaker 2: Houston D at four k. It was like a complete
- 12:22Speaker 2: way to flip it as I'm gonna take the D
- 12:24Speaker 2: and two guys from that side with it, so anything
- 12:27Speaker 2: can happen. It's a nine games slay. Do you have
- 12:29Speaker 2: any other thoughts of what like or you you know,
- 12:31Speaker 2: saying to the truth of what you've already said of
- 12:33Speaker 2: like are you sticking to what you would always say,
- 12:36Speaker 2: and just you're gonna avoid the game, because then you
- 12:37Speaker 2: could just not play anything and hope that it spreads
- 12:39Speaker 2: out or that you don't need what you need.
- 12:42Speaker 4: Yeah, and I think, like the point that I'll read
- 12:44Speaker 4: it rate, there is the script where this game goes
- 12:48Speaker 4: the most nuclear is pretty clearly Cincinnati builds a lead,
- 12:52Speaker 4: Arizona gets during garbage time. It's it's the same script
- 12:55Speaker 4: that Arizona has hit in so many times since your
- 12:58Speaker 4: Kobe Brissett took over. And so if you're hoping this
- 13:01Speaker 4: game fails, I think you want it the other way around,
- 13:03Speaker 4: where you want Arizona kind of controlling things. You want
- 13:06Speaker 4: Arizona to control the ball to keep the Cincinnati offense
- 13:11Speaker 4: off the field, but you also want them trying to
- 13:13Speaker 4: slow things down offensively instead of trying to speak things
- 13:16Speaker 4: up offensively. And so in that script, I do think
- 13:20Speaker 4: it makes sense to play a fifty two hundred dollars
- 13:23Speaker 4: Michael Carter, who did clearly have the lead last week,
- 13:26Speaker 4: had eleven carries, looked decent running the ball, even had
- 13:29Speaker 4: one explosive run. And we know how bad Cincinnati has
- 13:32Speaker 4: been against running backs all season. They're boosting opponent and
- 13:35Speaker 4: running back production by like eight Fantasy points per game,
- 13:37Speaker 4: which is just a crazy high number. So I do
- 13:40Speaker 4: think Carter is a good play, not just because he's
- 13:43Speaker 4: actually a decent value this week of fifty two hundred dollars,
- 13:45Speaker 4: which is not something I have said at any point
- 13:48Speaker 4: this year about a Cardinal's running back since James Connor
- 13:51Speaker 4: got hurt.
- 13:51Speaker 3: But it actually is a good spot.
- 13:54Speaker 4: But then you also get the benefit of the script
- 13:56Speaker 4: in which he succeeds likely mutes the overall game environment
- 14:01Speaker 4: compared to what.
- 14:01Speaker 3: People are looking for.
- 14:03Speaker 2: Yeah, the chatous to about Samaj p Ryan in a blowout?
- 14:06Speaker 2: What do you think about that?
- 14:09Speaker 4: Uh? I I don't even like which direction are you
- 14:15Speaker 4: hoping that p Ryan gets next to run from a blowout?
- 14:17Speaker 4: And I don't I don't know that he'd get extra
- 14:20Speaker 4: carries in a blowout, you know, might be touched Brooks
- 14:23Speaker 4: at that point.
- 14:25Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not really interested in p Ryan.
- 14:28Speaker 4: I think the way you use p Ryan honestly, like
- 14:31Speaker 4: might be just a total overstack of this game, where
- 14:35Speaker 4: you were hoping that he gets two touchdowns, one receiving,
- 14:40Speaker 4: one rushing, And it's because Cincinnati scored like forty some
- 14:43Speaker 4: points and the touchdowns had to come somewhere, and there's
- 14:46Speaker 4: just only so many ways that you can allocate all
- 14:48Speaker 4: those touchdowns.
- 14:49Speaker 3: Maybe he runs hot this week instead of Chase Brown.
- 14:52Speaker 2: That's what I was gonna say. I'd actually rather it
- 14:54Speaker 2: in like a Burrow Carter p Ryan original set up
- 14:58Speaker 2: to make cheap plays within the game, boost it up,
- 15:00Speaker 2: and then get those other guys fit in by those
- 15:03Speaker 2: and hope that it is like a back and forth.
- 15:05Speaker 2: That that's how I would build that, or something like.
- 15:08Speaker 4: Burrow Chase McBride and then Pete Ryan. And now you're saying, Okay,
- 15:13Speaker 4: I'm using the most expensive combination possible from this step,
- 15:18Speaker 4: but then I'm actually turning it into a little bit
- 15:20Speaker 4: more affordable because I'm using a forty four hundred dollars
- 15:22Speaker 4: running back whatever Pe Ryan is. So I think, yeah,
- 15:25Speaker 4: I think that's the only way that I consider using
- 15:28Speaker 4: p Ryan.
- 15:28Speaker 3: But it does seem like a decent way to do.
- 15:30Speaker 2: Now, I got one more thing I want to talk about,
- 15:32Speaker 2: but before I do, that relates to this game, but
- 15:34Speaker 2: one still within this game. I want to talk about
- 15:36Speaker 2: the others more from a DFS perspective, but just within
- 15:38Speaker 2: this game. What about flipping the build to the Brissette
- 15:41Speaker 2: side and any thoughts on like if it is the
- 15:43Speaker 2: McBride two touchdown game, that's already two for Brissette. Now
- 15:48Speaker 2: you got to pick in who do you want to
- 15:49Speaker 2: have with them? But what about like Brissette Carter one
- 15:52Speaker 2: of Michael Wilson Marv Harrison with Trey McBride and then
- 15:55Speaker 2: a T. Higgins on the other side or something like that,
- 15:58Speaker 2: and do it differently in that sense? You could you
- 16:00Speaker 2: see that?
- 16:01Speaker 4: So the only issue that I have with this is
- 16:03Speaker 4: I don't think, like usually when we say flip the build,
- 16:06Speaker 4: we're talking about something that really makes ownership. You know,
- 16:12Speaker 4: we're talking about a much much lower owned side of
- 16:15Speaker 4: the game. And I don't think you're totally getting that. Here.
- 16:17Speaker 4: We have Burrow projected at twenty percent in single entries,
- 16:20Speaker 4: ten percent per perset, so like there is a meaningful
- 16:23Speaker 4: difference there. We're talking about fifty percent the ownership the
- 16:25Speaker 4: other guy. But if you're using percent, you've got to
- 16:28Speaker 4: use trade McBride, right, and we've got Trade McBride at
- 16:30Speaker 4: twenty four percent, So how much are you saving in
- 16:32Speaker 4: that regard? I think the only way you do this
- 16:38Speaker 4: is if you felt really confident about either Michael Wilson
- 16:41Speaker 4: or Marvin Harrison Junior. The problem is number one, I
- 16:43Speaker 4: don't feel confident about either of them because the roles
- 16:46Speaker 4: are really murky. I've seen some people make the point
- 16:49Speaker 4: that last week it was the first time that Michael
- 16:52Speaker 4: Wilson stayed in kind of the lead dog role with
- 16:55Speaker 4: Harrison on the field, but Harrison was limited, So Harrison
- 16:58Speaker 4: isn't limited this week. I'm not one hundred percent sure
- 17:01Speaker 4: that it's going to be the same story. So there's
- 17:04Speaker 4: that aspect of it. But then also Cincinnati, as bad
- 17:07Speaker 4: as they have been against running backs and tight end,
- 17:10Speaker 4: so let me bring up the actual data here.
- 17:11Speaker 3: They've been pretty good against wide receivers.
- 17:14Speaker 4: So they're boosting opponent running back production by six point
- 17:17Speaker 4: seven fantasy points per game, opponent tight end production by
- 17:20Speaker 4: eight point three fantasy points per game, which continues to
- 17:23Speaker 4: be like a historically high number for any position, let
- 17:26Speaker 4: alone the tight end. They are hurting wide receiver one
- 17:30Speaker 4: and wide receiver two production by three point six and
- 17:33Speaker 4: two point three fantasy.
- 17:34Speaker 3: Points per game respectively on the year.
- 17:35Speaker 4: That's using our DBOA adjusted fantasy points against data over
- 17:38Speaker 4: at FTN. So if you do have conviction on Michael
- 17:42Speaker 4: Wilson or Marvin and Arrison Junior. I would have to
- 17:44Speaker 4: ask why because the matchup's not good and you know,
- 17:48Speaker 4: the role is just so unserved for both.
- 17:51Speaker 2: Yeah, well see it sounds like he's I think Marv
- 17:54Speaker 2: Harrison's going to play anyway, like I think you know
- 17:56Speaker 2: that the way it seems no setbacks or anything that
- 17:58Speaker 2: you know, it seems like this will be full versus
- 18:01Speaker 2: last week, like I said, could have still been a
- 18:02Speaker 2: little bit limited, depending and we have ownership projections, so
- 18:06Speaker 2: we already know this stuff. It's not gonna be more owned.
- 18:08Speaker 2: It's gonna be the Burrow side and Chase and then
- 18:11Speaker 2: McBride and whatever. And you know, like you said, I
- 18:13Speaker 2: think one of the more interesting things, at least if
- 18:15Speaker 2: you're doing that is and it's not ideal from the
- 18:18Speaker 2: data standpoint, but to the point of Wilson and Harrison
- 18:21Speaker 2: just aren't gonna get the ownership as much like most
- 18:23Speaker 2: people are gonna go Burrow, Chase McBride and then see
- 18:26Speaker 2: what else they can fit in. It's not saying they'll
- 18:28Speaker 2: always fit in Higgins, but they're gonna see, Okay, is
- 18:31Speaker 2: it Chase Brown, is it t Higgins. Is it Yoshi
- 18:33Speaker 2: Boss on the other side, is it Michael Carter or whatever,
- 18:35Speaker 2: and try and get a game stack that way. I
- 18:37Speaker 2: don't think those Arizona. I think of all the players
- 18:40Speaker 2: in this game, Giseki and the two receivers stay lower.
- 18:45Speaker 2: What do you see on Michael Carter right now in
- 18:47Speaker 2: single entry? Because I could see it coming up a
- 18:49Speaker 2: little bit. The more we get to what makes this
- 18:51Speaker 2: game stack work, it feels like people feel comfortable about him,
- 18:54Speaker 2: and I see him getting mentioned a lot as well
- 18:56Speaker 2: with that matchup. What's your thoughts there?
- 18:58Speaker 4: Yeah, we've gone on at thirteen percent, and I think
- 19:00Speaker 4: I'm on the higher side of the industry, but it
- 19:02Speaker 4: wouldn't surprise me if he did take off a little bit.
- 19:05Speaker 4: There are a couple guys that I kind of feel
- 19:09Speaker 4: that way. We're like, there's a large difference between what
- 19:13Speaker 4: I was expecting to see and what I currently am
- 19:16Speaker 4: seeing in the ownership front where it you know, there's
- 19:19Speaker 4: a there's a very good chance where especially you know,
- 19:22Speaker 4: there's we're not the only ones doing a show today,
- 19:24Speaker 4: so shows around the industry today, if they all say, hey,
- 19:27Speaker 4: why is this guy under ten percent?
- 19:29Speaker 3: There's a good chance that guy becomes twenty or twenty
- 19:31Speaker 3: five percent.
- 19:32Speaker 4: Michael Carter is one of those where he's right now again,
- 19:36Speaker 4: we've got him at thirteen. I think my numbers actually
- 19:39Speaker 4: spit out something like eight or nine percent for him,
- 19:41Speaker 4: and I just manually boosted it up because I don't
- 19:43Speaker 4: think it could possibly be that low. But also the
- 19:47Speaker 4: same with him, like I want to be surprised if
- 19:48Speaker 4: it got to twenty twenty five just because he's he's
- 19:52Speaker 4: a very clear way to play the favorite game in
- 19:56Speaker 4: a bit of a contrarian way, especially if ownership project
- 20:00Speaker 4: and are in the industry say that he's going to
- 20:01Speaker 4: be really contrariant if he was you know, if everyone
- 20:04Speaker 4: looked at his ownership projection and saw twenty five percent,
- 20:06Speaker 4: people say, oh, I don't want to play at twenty
- 20:08Speaker 4: five percent like Carter. But if twenty five percent of
- 20:11Speaker 4: the field thinks that Michael Carter is a good play
- 20:14Speaker 4: at eight percent and that's the ownership projective they're looking at,
- 20:17Speaker 4: then he has a chance to get.
- 20:18Speaker 3: To twenty twenty five percent something like that. So we'll see.
- 20:21Speaker 4: But you know, that's that's kind of you know, one
- 20:24Speaker 4: of my one of my favorite things to do leading
- 20:26Speaker 4: up to Sundays is kind of reading the key leaves
- 20:28Speaker 4: on ownership.
- 20:28Speaker 2: In this way, that's the contest sims in a nutshell.
- 20:31Speaker 2: You know, the year of twenty twenty four leading into
- 20:33Speaker 2: this current year of twenty twenty five, almost to twenty
- 20:35Speaker 2: twenty six, how much the contest sims have changed it
- 20:38Speaker 2: where it's like, oh, this sims say it's good, I
- 20:39Speaker 2: got to play it now, and everyone jumps on it.
- 20:41Speaker 2: And then the numbers you were going up against that
- 20:43Speaker 2: made it good were like, actually way off and you
- 20:45Speaker 2: were using bad numbers. So the key is having good ownership.
- 20:48Speaker 2: But two things then now you got me on that
- 20:50Speaker 2: are DEFs related, but not this one. You've probably heard
- 20:53Speaker 2: me talk about it in the past. And the PGA realm,
- 20:55Speaker 2: which is the lazy weeks. You can't ask for a
- 20:58Speaker 2: more lazy week in the NFL. Then Week seventeen, the
- 21:01Speaker 2: week before the you know, sort of the end of
- 21:02Speaker 2: the season. Week eighteen, just that lull before the playoffs.
- 21:06Speaker 2: All that but happens to happen during most you know
- 21:08Speaker 2: a lot of people celebrating Christmas Week and the holidays
- 21:11Speaker 2: of some kind throughout this season with friends and family
- 21:13Speaker 2: and drinks and fun and all these different things where
- 21:15Speaker 2: they just, y know, what does this show say, all right,
- 21:17Speaker 2: I'm gonna do that and you know, or what is
- 21:19Speaker 2: the ownerships? I'm gonna do that or go against that.
- 21:21Speaker 2: So it's kind of a setup where I do see
- 21:23Speaker 2: this staying really popular, and we'll talk in a little
- 21:26Speaker 2: bit about how to leverage the common Bill. But I
- 21:27Speaker 2: think that was some good points we made there. The
- 21:30Speaker 2: other thing I'll bring up quickly, the second one I
- 21:31Speaker 2: was gonna hit on earlier Alex, was the Slate Dynamics
- 21:35Speaker 2: as a whole. Like, if you're on Chase and McBride,
- 21:38Speaker 2: I get it, but you're also you should be on
- 21:39Speaker 2: this game. Then when you're doing that, I know there's
- 21:42Speaker 2: only eight other games and it's not an eleven or
- 21:45Speaker 2: twelve or a thirteen gamer, but there is massive pieces
- 21:48Speaker 2: you're leaving on the table. Now, you're not really likely
- 21:51Speaker 2: to get to those two plus JSN. I'm not saying
- 21:53Speaker 2: you can't. I get people to understand. I can understand
- 21:56Speaker 2: the math. I'm just telling you most people with those
- 21:58Speaker 2: two in their lineup are leaving out JSN, are leaving
- 22:01Speaker 2: out a Chan are leaving out Jonathan Taylor, right, there.
- 22:06Speaker 2: There is definitely some other big boy options Barkley, James Cook,
- 22:10Speaker 2: et Jr. Wherever you want to go with it. They're
- 22:13Speaker 2: not leaving out gent I'll tell you that much. We'll
- 22:14Speaker 2: get there in a second. That's part of another conversation,
- 22:16Speaker 2: but just a thought around, like that's where we're going
- 22:19Speaker 2: to be going. I think when we get there, right,
- 22:21Speaker 2: is this the thought of, like you know right away,
- 22:24Speaker 2: most of those builds are on a game stack and
- 22:26Speaker 2: they're not able to get to a lot of these
- 22:28Speaker 2: other quote unquote studs on the slate that definitely could
- 22:31Speaker 2: have slate breaking potential, and that's what would leave something
- 22:34Speaker 2: like this in the dust. Even if this doesn't fail
- 22:37Speaker 2: like your point earlier, but it just is good and
- 22:40Speaker 2: it's not great or phenomenal or needed, you know what
- 22:42Speaker 2: I mean.
- 22:43Speaker 4: Yeah, So, I think one of the really kind of
- 22:46Speaker 4: key points to understand about the slate and and how
- 22:50Speaker 4: compareson how it differs more specifically to a lot of
- 22:53Speaker 4: the slates this year is the kind of the theme
- 22:56Speaker 4: of the season, if you will, has been kind of
- 22:58Speaker 4: a return to paying up at running back instead of
- 23:02Speaker 4: wide receiver and tight end.
- 23:03Speaker 3: And of course there have.
- 23:04Speaker 4: Been exceptions that rule, like Puka has been mega chalk
- 23:07Speaker 4: sometimes this year, Saint Brown has been super choky, Jamar
- 23:12Speaker 4: Chase has been super chocky, even JSN at times this year.
- 23:15Speaker 3: So it's not like we've never had people paying up
- 23:17Speaker 3: for wide receiver.
- 23:17Speaker 4: But the reason why we've got Jamar Chase this week
- 23:21Speaker 4: projected for over forty percent and McBride pushing twenty five
- 23:25Speaker 4: even though he's you know, at a price where so
- 23:27Speaker 4: far this year, whenever McBride has been this expensive or
- 23:30Speaker 4: more expensive, he's been like eight percent ten percent at
- 23:32Speaker 4: the most.
- 23:33Speaker 3: Now we've got them projected around twenty five percent.
- 23:35Speaker 4: Is because we have Bijon, CMC, Jamior Gibbs all off
- 23:40Speaker 4: of the main slate, and those have been the three
- 23:41Speaker 4: guys that people are so determined to pay up for.
- 23:46Speaker 4: So the fact that they're off the slate is opening
- 23:48Speaker 4: up the potential for people to say, Okay, this week,
- 23:51Speaker 4: I'm going to prioritize spending money on my stack or
- 23:54Speaker 4: on these one off wide receivers and tight ends who
- 23:56Speaker 4: are all the way at the top of the board
- 23:58Speaker 4: instead of paying up for.
- 23:59Speaker 3: The expensive back. And that just makes it a very.
- 24:03Speaker 4: Different slate dynamic than a lot of the weeks that
- 24:05Speaker 4: we've played recently.
- 24:07Speaker 2: Yeah, agreed, and that's why. That's why I think that,
- 24:08Speaker 2: you know, the standard's gonna come in a little bit
- 24:10Speaker 2: when we get there now, sticking with just the common
- 24:12Speaker 2: build and the ownership and where we're seeing it now.
- 24:14Speaker 2: You already talked about it with Burrow, you know, he
- 24:16Speaker 2: talked about it with that game stack. We just mentioned it,
- 24:19Speaker 2: so might as well go there. Next is the It's
- 24:21Speaker 2: it's kind of a twofold, I guess is you know
- 24:23Speaker 2: it's the Raiders versus the Giants. I know there's talks
- 24:25Speaker 2: about like the Max Crosby pissed off because they're wanting
- 24:28Speaker 2: to hold him out for the last two games now,
- 24:29Speaker 2: And I talked tout last week. I thought it was
- 24:31Speaker 2: incredible when the reporter tried to ask him about the
- 24:34Speaker 2: playing for the number one pick and he's like, you're
- 24:36Speaker 2: don't ask me that. He's like, I'm trying to be
- 24:37Speaker 2: the best defensive end in the league. I don't give
- 24:40Speaker 2: a shit. I'm playing and I'm smashing these dudes. And
- 24:42Speaker 2: then all of a sudden, the management ownership is like,
- 24:44Speaker 2: actually you might not be playing buddy, We're we're gonna
- 24:47Speaker 2: decide that, and he's pissed off about that, I guess,
- 24:49Speaker 2: But jenty at sixty one hundred huge week last week, right,
- 24:53Speaker 2: so of course he he's gonna be popular this week.
- 24:55Speaker 2: And then you got Bowers moved to the IR previous
- 24:58Speaker 2: to that, so it's like you got the Michael Meyer
- 25:01Speaker 2: experience again. It's not Halloween any longer, but you know,
- 25:03Speaker 2: it's a different holiday, but twenty five hundred bucks, you've
- 25:05Speaker 2: got Michael Meyer down there. And then I don't know
- 25:07Speaker 2: if people love the other side, but people always seem
- 25:10Speaker 2: to want to play a little bit of Robinson, right,
- 25:12Speaker 2: they're fine with it, and maybe even Tyrone Tracy Junior
- 25:15Speaker 2: because of the way it's been for the Giants. So
- 25:18Speaker 2: I guess that's the best place to go next. But
- 25:19Speaker 2: what's your thoughts on this stack or this setup and
- 25:22Speaker 2: using these guys as pieces to make everything else work.
- 25:25Speaker 4: Yeah, so let's start with the gent chalk because it's
- 25:30Speaker 4: going to be massive, and particularly it's going to be
- 25:32Speaker 4: massive if Trevion Henderson does play for New England, because
- 25:37Speaker 4: what what we were initially projecting was like forty five
- 25:40Speaker 4: percent gent forty five percent Romandre Stevenson. If we don't
- 25:44Speaker 4: get the Stevenson chalk because Treviuon's back, it might be
- 25:47Speaker 4: like sixty percent Gent and then no one else at
- 25:50Speaker 4: the at the running back position come anywhere close to him.
- 25:53Speaker 4: So there are a couple of things here, and I
- 25:57Speaker 4: should I should shout out I wish I remember which
- 26:00Speaker 4: subscriber for my discord actually made this point. But they
- 26:03Speaker 4: shut down Bowers because they don't want to win this game.
- 26:05Speaker 4: They shut down Crosby because they don't want to win
- 26:07Speaker 4: this game. Are we sure that they're just going to
- 26:10Speaker 4: for speed Gent all game and let you know, they're
- 26:15Speaker 4: now best offensive player who's active, just have this like
- 26:19Speaker 4: full role, and especially if they're leading, are they going
- 26:22Speaker 4: to let him kind of go get them a win?
- 26:24Speaker 4: I don't know what the answer to that question is,
- 26:26Speaker 4: So it is, you know, a bit of uncertainty in
- 26:29Speaker 4: that regard. But more importantly, I think the matchup with
- 26:33Speaker 4: the Giants is phenomenal and it's especially good for explosive runs.
- 26:37Speaker 4: But we are still talking about a guy who has two,
- 26:41Speaker 4: just two twenty plus yard runs on the season.
- 26:46Speaker 3: Should we be sixty.
- 26:48Speaker 4: Percent owned confident in a guy who only has two
- 26:51Speaker 4: explosive plays all season? In the run game, and you
- 26:55Speaker 4: know in the passing game, it's similar. He had a
- 26:57Speaker 4: stretch of three consecutive games with eight targets in November,
- 27:01Speaker 4: but he only hit two targets last week. The fact
- 27:03Speaker 4: that one of them was a sixty hour touchdown is
- 27:06Speaker 4: really affecting that ownership a lot more than I think
- 27:09Speaker 4: it should. So I am kind of the opinion that
- 27:13Speaker 4: Genti is kind of a you know, a pretty clear
- 27:17Speaker 4: picture now where he is a really boom er bust
- 27:19Speaker 4: guy and he's super dependent on these explosive plays that
- 27:23Speaker 4: he's very capable of producing, but is not going to
- 27:25Speaker 4: produce them at a high rate. So when he's six
- 27:29Speaker 4: percent on whatever he was last week, he's a very
- 27:31Speaker 4: good play. When he's sixty percent on like he is
- 27:34Speaker 4: this week, he's probably not a good play by any
- 27:38Speaker 4: stretch of the imagination.
- 27:39Speaker 2: Yeah, we have him at one of our highest optimal
- 27:41Speaker 2: rates I've seen all season on the stone over at
- 27:43Speaker 2: triber Nation, But it's like also one of the most
- 27:46Speaker 2: negative leverage standpoints because the ownership and then you take
- 27:48Speaker 2: that to single entry and it goes even further. And
- 27:50Speaker 2: I always talk about this, like when it's such a
- 27:52Speaker 2: high optimal rate. I get it, and we know why
- 27:54Speaker 2: that is. But when there's talking points around it and
- 27:56Speaker 2: to your point, we'll spend some more time on this
- 27:59Speaker 2: when we get to the secondmentbut ways to leverage it.
- 28:01Speaker 2: But just of note, it's it's we've seen it was
- 28:04Speaker 2: earlier this season. Everyone will say, oh, like Miami's so
- 28:06Speaker 2: bad against the run. It was Bijon and then there
- 28:08Speaker 2: was a late scratch of Drake London And it doesn't
- 28:11Speaker 2: matter how bad the other defenses. Sometimes if they just say, listen,
- 28:15Speaker 2: we're gonna make quarterback Geno Smith throw the ball to
- 28:19Speaker 2: Trey Tucker, Jack Besh and Tyler Lockett from twenty sixteen
- 28:24Speaker 2: with Michael Meyer and just see what happens. And then
- 28:27Speaker 2: the Narraiders say it's not going so well early on.
- 28:31Speaker 2: Now we can kind of wave that flag a little
- 28:33Speaker 2: bit and try and go after this pick and do whatever.
- 28:34Speaker 2: I'm not saying it will happen. But everything that people
- 28:36Speaker 2: are automatically adding to it, it's already all baked in. So
- 28:39Speaker 2: the only thing that happens after it's baked in. Another
- 28:41Speaker 2: common theme we've talked about all season. The only thing
- 28:44Speaker 2: that happens that's important in DFS is if it's already
- 28:48Speaker 2: all baked into the projection and of the points, then
- 28:52Speaker 2: all that can happen now is the ownership can get
- 28:54Speaker 2: out of control. And that's when we're making the case.
- 28:57Speaker 2: Now again, he's he's the he's the way he is
- 29:00Speaker 2: for a reason. It's you know, people are playing him
- 29:02Speaker 2: for the reason. We're making a case. And we'll get
- 29:04Speaker 2: to that in segment number two. If you wanted to
- 29:06Speaker 2: be off of him and why, there's definite reason to it.
- 29:08Speaker 2: But that's just a key talking point. Let's instead of
- 29:12Speaker 2: going to that route because we're not there yet finishing
- 29:14Speaker 2: this out for the common build, what about Michael Meyer?
- 29:16Speaker 2: Do you think it's a double tight end common build
- 29:19Speaker 2: to make that original game stack work where it's those
- 29:21Speaker 2: two as a combo pack. Then you get your McBride
- 29:25Speaker 2: and you're chasing there and pick your burrow go from there, Like, well,
- 29:28Speaker 2: what's your sort of thoughts on that?
- 29:29Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I definitely think Meyer is going to
- 29:31Speaker 4: be popular. One thing I'll say this also of course
- 29:35Speaker 4: relates to genty, is we should remember that this is
- 29:37Speaker 4: a four o'clock game. There are only two four o'clock
- 29:39Speaker 4: games this week, so you're going to have a ton
- 29:42Speaker 4: of information from the early games to determine whether you
- 29:45Speaker 4: can and should use the chalk gent or whether you
- 29:47Speaker 4: need to get different at that point in time. So
- 29:51Speaker 4: that will number one, like mean that we can still
- 29:56Speaker 4: play him even though he's this popular if we if
- 29:59Speaker 4: we do think that he's a high probability play.
- 30:02Speaker 3: But it also means.
- 30:03Speaker 4: That's that's a chunk of the field who otherwise wouldn't
- 30:07Speaker 4: have played him, that will now play him because they
- 30:09Speaker 4: feel like they have the license to because they have
- 30:11Speaker 4: the Lakeswap option with him. So that could also make
- 30:14Speaker 4: him even more popular than he would already have been.
- 30:17Speaker 4: So it's yeah, it's it's another tough decision. It's definitely
- 30:20Speaker 4: not an easy slate here in week seventeen.
- 30:23Speaker 2: Yeah, one thing I want to say about that at least,
- 30:24Speaker 2: and I know we haven't fully got there on a
- 30:26Speaker 2: round it out just and then we'll get there, you know,
- 30:28Speaker 2: to the talking about leveraging the common build. But just
- 30:31Speaker 2: one thing about that is the two game factor. I'm
- 30:33Speaker 2: glad you brought that up because you look, if you're
- 30:36Speaker 2: on the Cinci Arizona game and it busts and you
- 30:38Speaker 2: got gent left like, yeah, definitely a bad spot to
- 30:40Speaker 2: be at that point, because like you're just collecting. I mean,
- 30:42Speaker 2: you don't really have much else you'll you should swap it.
- 30:45Speaker 2: And I'm sure that you can literally just put in
- 30:46Speaker 2: Tracy Junior at way let's ownership and to see what happens.
- 30:49Speaker 2: So it's not about that to me as much as
- 30:52Speaker 2: the opposite effect. I actually am again we're close to
- 30:56Speaker 2: that anyway now, Alex. But I will say this, I
- 30:59Speaker 2: really don't care about his projection as much to say that,
- 31:02Speaker 2: Like if I was golden in the morning, I'm actually
- 31:04Speaker 2: not positive I would flip things around to get to
- 31:07Speaker 2: gentee on. I mean, obviously there's the blocker effect. I'm
- 31:10Speaker 2: just saying I'm not as high on the spot as
- 31:13Speaker 2: other situational stuff. It depends on the build, of course.
- 31:15Speaker 2: I'm just talking about from one shot, you know, the
- 31:17Speaker 2: deal looking at it, like we talked about earlier, I'm
- 31:20Speaker 2: not one hundred percent sure I would over extend, at
- 31:23Speaker 2: least as a better way to put it to get
- 31:24Speaker 2: myself there. If I had tons of flex flexibility, I
- 31:27Speaker 2: would probably do it, yes, But I'm saying from everything
- 31:29Speaker 2: you mentioned, I'm not certain that would be the case
- 31:32Speaker 2: like if I had a Barkley lineup or a Cook
- 31:34Speaker 2: lineup that I already liked, I actually might stand on that.
- 31:37Speaker 2: And yes, they're projected better anyway, but I mean more
- 31:41Speaker 2: of with two plays left, I look at the Gent version,
- 31:45Speaker 2: but I might hold pat on what I got with
- 31:46Speaker 2: Cook and somebody else, like a Cook Tucker versus moving
- 31:50Speaker 2: it to a genty something else. I would probably still
- 31:52Speaker 2: hold it just because that's just a piece I'll give
- 31:55Speaker 2: you that I'm doing. It's you don't have to do that,
- 31:57Speaker 2: It's just what I'm thinking about right now.
- 31:59Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 32:00Speaker 4: Or it could be like you know, Barkley and Meyer
- 32:02Speaker 4: versus Gent and Goddard something like.
- 32:04Speaker 2: That, right, yeah, I might.
- 32:06Speaker 4: I think I think one other point that I'll make here,
- 32:10Speaker 4: and this is already kind of getting into leveraging the
- 32:12Speaker 4: common build, but if I had if I had Gent,
- 32:18Speaker 4: I think the only way that I would do it, well,
- 32:20Speaker 4: I should start by saying what most people I think
- 32:22Speaker 4: will do is they'll have Gent and then if they
- 32:25Speaker 4: need to pivot, they'll pivot to Tyrone Tracy just in
- 32:27Speaker 4: the same game, saying okay, well, what if it's the
- 32:29Speaker 4: giants who end up running all over them instead things
- 32:31Speaker 4: of that nature. What I would rather do is I'd
- 32:33Speaker 4: rather have Gent in the flex so that my pivot
- 32:36Speaker 4: could be to DeVante Smith instead of Tyrone Tracy, because
- 32:40Speaker 4: if you're using Tracy, like what is his ceiling twenty two,
- 32:43Speaker 4: twenty three, twenty four, something like that, whereas we've seen
- 32:46Speaker 4: DeVante Smith go for thirty five plus, So if I
- 32:49Speaker 4: had to make it a swap late, I would much
- 32:51Speaker 4: prefer to be swapping to Davante then to Tyrone Tracy.
- 32:54Speaker 2: Yeah, and someone brings it up here, I mean definitely.
- 32:57Speaker 2: You know in cash, people you're playing GENTI like, that's
- 33:00Speaker 2: just what people are doing, and do what you want.
- 33:02Speaker 2: I'm just saying, like it's clearly a cash lock for
- 33:03Speaker 2: anybody looking at cash lineups and things like that. That's
- 33:06Speaker 2: what going to be for most people playing cash at
- 33:08Speaker 2: the highest level, Jent, He's going to be a lock
- 33:09Speaker 2: in that. We're talking more from a single entry GPP perspective,
- 33:12Speaker 2: and even Alex's point there, which I just want to
- 33:14Speaker 2: round out the common build first, but I'll say two
- 33:16Speaker 2: for two seconds is like that might not be possible
- 33:20Speaker 2: for people in a certain instance or way because if
- 33:23Speaker 2: they do have McBride with Meyer on top of genty,
- 33:26Speaker 2: it's like, clearly they're flexes and now they can still
- 33:28Speaker 2: find ways to flip it around. Maybe they've got an
- 33:29Speaker 2: extra piece in there that can make the move. But
- 33:32Speaker 2: I'm just noting it is like it's not always gonna
- 33:34Speaker 2: be possible for people with the common build. Is there
- 33:36Speaker 2: anything else about the common build that you want to
- 33:39Speaker 2: hit on here that I'm sort of missing forgetting or
- 33:41Speaker 2: anything else you're seeing that stands out that we want
- 33:42Speaker 2: to make sure we fit into this segment before we
- 33:45Speaker 2: move on.
- 33:46Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's also worth noting that we we've
- 33:51Speaker 4: got a ton of ownership on Jacksonville as well, so
- 33:54Speaker 4: like we're actually projecting Lawrence to be more popular than
- 33:57Speaker 4: Joe Burrow, and we have Jacobe Meyer at like thirty
- 34:00Speaker 4: five percent in single entries, so there's going to be
- 34:02Speaker 4: a lot of ownership there. And then I think the
- 34:08Speaker 4: only other thing that I would say is despite that,
- 34:12Speaker 4: despite the fact that we do have two really really
- 34:15Speaker 4: popular quarterbacks for ones, like we still have Prissette May
- 34:20Speaker 4: Chuck and Dart all over seven percent as well, all
- 34:23Speaker 4: theoretically could be at least ten percent, So it's simultaneously
- 34:27Speaker 4: a little bit spread out and really concerned in those
- 34:30Speaker 4: two offenses. But maybe even the more important point is
- 34:33Speaker 4: it's not necessarily the quarterbacks, but we could also see,
- 34:37Speaker 4: you know, major chalk from the Patriots wide receivers given
- 34:40Speaker 4: the injuries, where Diggs and Kyle Williams might end up
- 34:43Speaker 4: really popular. Hunter Henry is probably going to be really popular.
- 34:46Speaker 4: We could see Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson be really popular.
- 34:50Speaker 4: So there are kind of a lot of options, a
- 34:54Speaker 4: lot of chalky options that we're choosing from, particularly among
- 34:58Speaker 4: past catchers this week.
- 35:00Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll get there for sure. I think my takeaway
- 35:03Speaker 2: would just be like, how do you want to integrate
- 35:04Speaker 2: the conversation of the Jacksonville stuff, because super important to
- 35:07Speaker 2: touch on. I definitely think there's a couple of hilarious
- 35:11Speaker 2: outcomes on this slate, and one would certainly be the
- 35:14Speaker 2: gent piece that we mentioned, like, of course last week
- 35:16Speaker 2: he has that big game, so now it comes back
- 35:18Speaker 2: to it. But the most hilarious to me would be
- 35:21Speaker 2: if Trevor Lawrence, you know, he had those four good
- 35:23Speaker 2: weeks then everyone said, oh he's finally facing a real
- 35:26Speaker 2: team against Denver. There's no way he's gonna have a
- 35:28Speaker 2: big game, he goes out and does it against Denver. Well, now,
- 35:32Speaker 2: how wouldn't he do it against Indy? And that would
- 35:34Speaker 2: be the most hilarious outcome is when he doesn't do
- 35:36Speaker 2: it against Indy when it's like that would be one
- 35:38Speaker 2: that you think would be the most common, but I
- 35:40Speaker 2: don't know, like the most possible now at this point
- 35:42Speaker 2: after everything you've seen from him. But we'll get that.
- 35:45Speaker 2: But is there any other way you want to integrate that, Like,
- 35:47Speaker 2: do you do you actually think there's a chance people
- 35:49Speaker 2: could go something like I don't know if this even
- 35:53Speaker 2: fully fits, but like Lawrence Jacobi Meyers with Michael Meyer,
- 36:00Speaker 2: Jamar Chase McBride, gent, is that kind of the setup
- 36:03Speaker 2: you could see where people land on that even more
- 36:05Speaker 2: than the Borough version.
- 36:07Speaker 3: Yeah, I could see that.
- 36:08Speaker 4: I can also see people double stacking him either with ETN.
- 36:12Speaker 4: Since ETN just put three touchdowns from few games ago
- 36:16Speaker 4: to still so insane, Breton Strange is going to get
- 36:18Speaker 4: some ownership to the tight end position. But I think
- 36:21Speaker 4: the main way to integrate this into the conversation of
- 36:23Speaker 4: what is the common build is just understanding that because
- 36:26Speaker 4: there are so many Chalky pass catching options. Because there
- 36:30Speaker 4: are so many quarterbacks that people can go to, we
- 36:33Speaker 4: are going to see a bit more at diversity in
- 36:36Speaker 4: just the overall like build structure, which also is true
- 36:39Speaker 4: because again going back to the original point of this,
- 36:42Speaker 4: the stud running backs just aren't as appealing this week
- 36:45Speaker 4: as they've been most weeks this season when Jean McCaffrey
- 36:49Speaker 4: and Gibbs have been parts of slates, which again is
- 36:52Speaker 4: going to give people. It's freeing people up to build
- 36:56Speaker 4: in whatever way they want instead of feeling like, Okay,
- 36:59Speaker 4: I've got to find a way to get these expensive
- 37:00Speaker 4: running backs, which has given us more predictable builds throughout you.
- 37:04Speaker 2: Yeah, another thing too, Aaron Smith brings up, is that, yeah,
- 37:07Speaker 2: Jackson Indian a dome with a lot of other winter
- 37:09Speaker 2: weather spots, and even like the Philly Buffalo game, which
- 37:12Speaker 2: we didn't talk a ton about, that's a very low
- 37:14Speaker 2: total for those two teams going up against each other.
- 37:16Speaker 2: But you know, Philly as good as most, you know,
- 37:19Speaker 2: more than most, I should say, as good as anybody.
- 37:20Speaker 2: But look behind you with the helmet there is like
- 37:23Speaker 2: just thinking about the spot of that. They just like
- 37:26Speaker 2: to run the ball and throw short chop throws over
- 37:28Speaker 2: the middle. It's like that just shuts the clock down
- 37:30Speaker 2: pretty quickly and moves fast. And obviously Buffalo contend to
- 37:33Speaker 2: do the same, especially when they get into these colder
- 37:35Speaker 2: weather games. Just Alan Cook whatever else these short throws
- 37:38Speaker 2: are and capassit to along and move it. But one
- 37:40Speaker 2: thing I will say about the Jackson Indy though, is
- 37:42Speaker 2: if you go like Lawrence Jacoby, Strange, whatever, I feel
- 37:46Speaker 2: like it's going to be more Jamar Chase being left
- 37:50Speaker 2: out because it's I think then people could move to
- 37:52Speaker 2: Jonathan Taylor, but they might still want McBride in there
- 37:56Speaker 2: or something along those lines. And if they had gent
- 37:58Speaker 2: maybe it's Strange instead of Meyer. But they can get
- 38:00Speaker 2: down a little bit from Brown or sorry, from Jamar
- 38:03Speaker 2: Chase to Taylor and make that work within a game
- 38:06Speaker 2: stack there. So I do think that's somewhat interesting. But
- 38:09Speaker 2: I don't know if that's like, I don't know, do
- 38:11Speaker 2: you think it's like really is it going to leverage
- 38:13Speaker 2: the common build or is it going to feel like
- 38:15Speaker 2: that's kind of just the secondary version of it.
- 38:17Speaker 4: So I wouldn't say that I think that Chase can
- 38:21Speaker 4: get left out of builds like that because I think
- 38:23Speaker 4: One of the kind of themes that we've seen this
- 38:25Speaker 4: season is when people pay up all the way up
- 38:30Speaker 4: for a receiver or tight end in McBride's case, they
- 38:34Speaker 4: are a little bit more hesitant to double stack and
- 38:40Speaker 4: and like they look then obviously makes sense to some degree,
- 38:42Speaker 4: right Like if Chase has one of his twelve for
- 38:45Speaker 4: two hundred and two games, it's going to be hard
- 38:49Speaker 4: for anyone else on Cincinnati to get there. So it's
- 38:51Speaker 4: not that it doesn't make at least some sense. But
- 38:56Speaker 4: the decision that people have so often made this year
- 38:59Speaker 4: in that kind of scene situation is Okay, if I'm
- 39:01Speaker 4: not going to double stack it, I might as well
- 39:03Speaker 4: just mini stack this and then go find a cheap
- 39:07Speaker 4: double stack that helps me fit that. And again, like
- 39:10Speaker 4: in theory, that makes sense, but when so many people
- 39:14Speaker 4: are doing that, it becomes really bad because now you're
- 39:17Speaker 4: threading this really the needle.
- 39:19Speaker 3: So I think that.
- 39:21Speaker 4: That's the primary mistake that people are going to make
- 39:24Speaker 4: on this late is trying to find mini stacks, particularly
- 39:28Speaker 4: like the McBride and Chase mini stack.
- 39:30Speaker 3: And I think we're going to see that all over
- 39:33Speaker 3: the place.
- 39:33Speaker 4: So I don't think there are going to be many
- 39:35Speaker 4: builds that use McBride, but then say, Okay, I guess
- 39:38Speaker 4: I can't get to Chase here because I think so
- 39:40Speaker 4: many builds are going to actually start with that mini
- 39:42Speaker 4: stack and then figure out what they do around it.
- 39:45Speaker 2: Well, the more I think about it out loud, actually
- 39:46Speaker 2: is you know, now I think what could happen to
- 39:49Speaker 2: your point way back when when we first started talking
- 39:52Speaker 2: about this, since the Bengals or the since Arizona game,
- 39:56Speaker 2: is I actually think we're going to see more Michael
- 39:58Speaker 2: Carter's steam because now that about it, it'd be like, Okay,
- 40:01Speaker 2: strange fits the tight end. So let's say they go
- 40:03Speaker 2: with Lawrence one of those three, if not two of Meyers,
- 40:07Speaker 2: Thomas Junior and Washington after the big game range. Now
- 40:11Speaker 2: it's Jonathan Taylor. Now it's Genty. Well, it's like they
- 40:14Speaker 2: could actually just do Michael Carter and land on one
- 40:17Speaker 2: of the Sinci guys and maybe it's Chase that fits
- 40:19Speaker 2: it or something like that, and then you have Chase
- 40:21Speaker 2: and Taylor because people have seen Chase have big games
- 40:23Speaker 2: too where it's like he's not even the primary focus
- 40:26Speaker 2: of like three touchdowns or something, but it's like he
- 40:28Speaker 2: still gets twelve targets, So I actually think and I
- 40:30Speaker 2: didn't look if it fits, but I think you could
- 40:32Speaker 2: see something like that as well, where people still feel
- 40:34Speaker 2: like they're covering the angle. So it just makes me
- 40:36Speaker 2: think to round out thoughts on the common build, it
- 40:39Speaker 2: makes me think that Michael Carter could get steamed a
- 40:42Speaker 2: little bit more because he still fits both versions of
- 40:44Speaker 2: the build, the game stack build to make it all work,
- 40:47Speaker 2: or the builds with like Trevor Lawrence or whoever else.
- 40:50Speaker 2: Is there anything else you want to touch on? There
- 40:52Speaker 2: a defense or anything else to see what the common build?
- 40:54Speaker 2: If not, let's move right to how we're gonna leverage
- 40:56Speaker 2: this in other angles we can attack from.
- 40:58Speaker 3: Yeah, let's move on.
- 41:00Speaker 2: Okay, I see currently just a note, I see Steelers
- 41:05Speaker 2: Browns both those defenses, and then it looks like Patriots
- 41:09Speaker 2: if people are paying up, is that kind of what
- 41:10Speaker 2: you got? Yeah?
- 41:12Speaker 4: So yeah, and I think let's see yeah, Steelers Patriots.
- 41:17Speaker 4: I also think the Giants could end up a lot
- 41:19Speaker 4: more popular than people are expecting, just because if you
- 41:22Speaker 4: don't have gente, it makes so much sense to use
- 41:25Speaker 4: the Giants, and there aren't you know, any other like
- 41:28Speaker 4: good options under three thousand dollars, so they could end
- 41:31Speaker 4: up being a lot more popular just because the sims
- 41:32Speaker 4: are gonna like them.
- 41:34Speaker 2: Maybe play your Eagles under three thousand dollars, that could
- 41:36Speaker 2: be a way to do it this week twenty six.
- 41:38Speaker 4: I think they're a really good option, And actually they
- 41:40Speaker 4: could end up steaming because right now Roth is saying
- 41:43Speaker 4: that there's going to be heavy rain in that Philly game,
- 41:45Speaker 4: So if it's gonna get sloppy, then then people could
- 41:48Speaker 4: end up playing either defense from that game.
- 41:51Speaker 2: Yeah, I have no but I mean, I don't know
- 41:52Speaker 2: if they could get steamed enough. We'll see. But at
- 41:54Speaker 2: twenty six hundred, I think they're a fine option download.
- 41:57Speaker 3: So what you haven't.
- 41:59Speaker 4: Seen a defense do really well against Buffalo, Like Houston
- 42:02Speaker 4: in that standalone game had like eight sacks against him
- 42:05Speaker 4: or something like that, So it's definitely possible.
- 42:07Speaker 3: Jalen Carter also back for Philly.
- 42:09Speaker 2: Yeah, good call on that as well. For sure. That's
- 42:11Speaker 2: interesting too about the James Cook theory in this one,
- 42:13Speaker 2: because obviously Philly, you know, showing up a little bit
- 42:16Speaker 2: bad against the run, but it's like when you're missing
- 42:17Speaker 2: your main dude for a lot of those games, it
- 42:19Speaker 2: doesn't help you either, so certainly something like that. Okay,
- 42:23Speaker 2: let's move to the second part. Then we kind of
- 42:25Speaker 2: got the common build figured out now, and I think
- 42:27Speaker 2: most figured that part of it. It's gonna be more
- 42:30Speaker 2: exciting to go through this next twenty minutes or so.
- 42:32Speaker 2: But just to note the Patriots factor, I mean, I
- 42:36Speaker 2: not that I wanted to start there, but you know,
- 42:38Speaker 2: someone talking about it again about the again, I guess
- 42:40Speaker 2: we got to wait and see. But with Henderson questionable,
- 42:43Speaker 2: Like I don't know, the Patriots feels like what the
- 42:46Speaker 2: Raiders are doing and it's just they're actually gonna do it.
- 42:48Speaker 2: They're not gonna it seems like they could leave Henderson
- 42:51Speaker 2: out here. Will have to wait and see, but it
- 42:52Speaker 2: seems like they could end up going without him. But
- 42:55Speaker 2: maybe not. But I think the only motivation for them
- 42:57Speaker 2: is like Drake may MVP right is to come out
- 42:59Speaker 2: and the sea that way, Yeah, lock that MVP down
- 43:02Speaker 2: And obviously having a team like the Jets to go
- 43:05Speaker 2: up against certainly a good spot. But any thoughts on
- 43:07Speaker 2: that one? And then where do you want to go
- 43:08Speaker 2: with leveraging common build first? Because I know the chat
- 43:11Speaker 2: talked earlier about Geno stacks with you know, moving off
- 43:14Speaker 2: gent is that the first place you want to go.
- 43:16Speaker 2: But let me hear your Patriots thoughts quick, we can
- 43:18Speaker 2: tie these in.
- 43:19Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, look like they're still live for the
- 43:22Speaker 4: one seed, but it should be such an easy win
- 43:24Speaker 4: against the Jets that like they they might you know,
- 43:28Speaker 4: shut things down and put the backups in late in
- 43:30Speaker 4: the third quarter or something like that in this one.
- 43:32Speaker 4: So yeah, it's gonna be hard for them to play
- 43:35Speaker 4: the ceiling. The other thing I don't like is one
- 43:38Speaker 4: of my first thoughts of how to play this slate
- 43:40Speaker 4: was like a Drake may double with Adam I Mitchell
- 43:42Speaker 4: as to bring back the problem is that Patriots have
- 43:44Speaker 4: been so good at preventing explosive.
- 43:47Speaker 3: Passes that.
- 43:50Speaker 4: You know, my favorite actually, well, one of my favorite
- 43:53Speaker 4: props of the week over our underdog is under twenty
- 43:56Speaker 4: nine and a half long as completion for Cook because
- 44:00Speaker 4: they don't throw explosive passes and the Patriots don't allow
- 44:03Speaker 4: explosive passes.
- 44:04Speaker 3: So I just really really like that one.
- 44:06Speaker 4: But that means that Adam and I Mitchell has a
- 44:08Speaker 4: much much more difficult path to getting there, and it's
- 44:11Speaker 4: a lot harder for the Jets too. You know Fluke
- 44:14Speaker 4: into a long touchdown that now does push New England
- 44:17Speaker 4: a little bit, so that sack just I think what
- 44:21Speaker 4: I'm gonna end up doing is if I if I
- 44:23Speaker 4: play a Patriot, it's going to be a one off
- 44:25Speaker 4: fide receiver, most likely either Digs or Kyle Williams.
- 44:28Speaker 2: Yeah, Kyle Williams is a one off at thirty three hundred.
- 44:30Speaker 2: It seems pretty fine. Like he seems fine on this
- 44:32Speaker 2: late because I know what people say, wouldn't you want
- 44:34Speaker 2: to pair him up? Not necessarily? And I don't see
- 44:36Speaker 2: him getting any crazy steam. So it's like if he
- 44:38Speaker 2: is the one piece, if you think the Patriots are
- 44:40Speaker 2: going to do something with him, and they have injuries already,
- 44:43Speaker 2: and he's cheap enough that he doesn't quite kill you,
- 44:45Speaker 2: and if he has a big game it could be meaningful.
- 44:46Speaker 2: Because he's not going to be very high owned. I
- 44:49Speaker 2: think that's where I'd be more comfortable going. Digs is
- 44:52Speaker 2: fifty eight hundred. It's not like he's expensive, so I
- 44:53Speaker 2: think he's fine as well. But to your point, either
- 44:55Speaker 2: of those two would make a little bit more sense.
- 44:57Speaker 2: Now if Henderson was out, how much ownership think goes
- 45:00Speaker 2: to somebody else like you know, Stevenson or something like that.
- 45:03Speaker 2: What do you sort of see happening there?
- 45:04Speaker 3: If that's the key, Yes, Stevenson would be massive chalk.
- 45:07Speaker 4: I think there's even a chance that he'd end up
- 45:09Speaker 4: more popular than Gentee, and I think that he would
- 45:11Speaker 4: largely largely deserve that ownership. So I don't even know
- 45:16Speaker 4: if I would fade it. But hopefully we don't have
- 45:20Speaker 4: to make that decision, and hopefully that's just kind of
- 45:22Speaker 4: a wash, because I've already you know, I just this morning,
- 45:26Speaker 4: I already did an entire run through the ownership projections,
- 45:29Speaker 4: taking ownerships from Stevenson and figuring out where to dish
- 45:32Speaker 4: that out.
- 45:32Speaker 3: I don't want to have to reverse that way.
- 45:36Speaker 2: To such as the life right. But somebody mentioned about
- 45:40Speaker 2: the other side on the Jets one like again, another
- 45:43Speaker 2: hilarious piece would just be Jeremy Ruckert same price as Meyer.
- 45:48Speaker 2: They actually just paid him, I know, which sounds crazy,
- 45:50Speaker 2: but they did just give him a contract. And now
- 45:53Speaker 2: Mason Taylor out. It's like, if you know they're missing
- 45:55Speaker 2: linebackers for the Patriots, could be a garbage time whatever,
- 45:58Speaker 2: but at twenty five hundred, you could do worse and
- 46:00Speaker 2: just noting it. Obviously he's not going to project like
- 46:03Speaker 2: Michael Meyer, but you know, I could see that happening
- 46:05Speaker 2: at twenty five hundred. Not something I'm super thrilled about,
- 46:07Speaker 2: but just a note. All right, let's start with the
- 46:10Speaker 2: Geno conversation, because I think if you know, if everyone
- 46:13Speaker 2: says the same and to your point and all that,
- 46:14Speaker 2: I don't think there's anything crazy about having this conversation
- 46:17Speaker 2: with the fact that jenty could get to fifty sixty
- 46:20Speaker 2: percent even in these single entries that we're talking about.
- 46:22Speaker 2: So what is your thoughts on the Geno Smith side
- 46:26Speaker 2: of things. I didn't see the update on Jack Besh.
- 46:29Speaker 2: I know he was questionable and I think he hit
- 46:30Speaker 2: the injury report on Friday, but it seemed like it
- 46:33Speaker 2: was minor. So I already know Trey Tucker's being talked about,
- 46:35Speaker 2: We know Michael Meyer's being talked about. You can stack
- 46:38Speaker 2: GINO with both of them or add in somebody else,
- 46:41Speaker 2: any anything there with the geno side of things.
- 46:44Speaker 4: Uh, Pat and Davis talked about about this stack and
- 46:50Speaker 4: it's like the vast majority of people who will go
- 46:53Speaker 4: to this stack are not going to it because they think, oh,
- 46:55Speaker 4: GINO is going to have a huge game here. They're
- 46:57Speaker 4: going to it because they think if I just get
- 47:01Speaker 4: needy hooker production from this stack of Gino Tucker and
- 47:06Speaker 4: A Meyer, then goodness, I can fit like four different studs.
- 47:10Speaker 4: I think they had Chase McBride and JSN in the
- 47:14Speaker 4: lineup all together when they did this, so it's it's
- 47:18Speaker 4: absolutely viable for that purpose. And again, the Giants defense
- 47:23Speaker 4: is really really bad. They do allow explosive play, So
- 47:26Speaker 4: this is as good as spot as we'll find.
- 47:27Speaker 3: I'll season for Trey Tucker.
- 47:29Speaker 4: I can't say I'm super into it though, just because
- 47:33Speaker 4: I think there are very attractive game environments on the slate,
- 47:36Speaker 4: and I think there are like really solid plays on
- 47:39Speaker 4: this slate at the at the quarterback and wide receiver position,
- 47:44Speaker 4: So I think there's too much opportunity costs there for
- 47:47Speaker 4: me to go this route. But again, it's it's really
- 47:51Speaker 4: hard to argue like they they are all good values.
- 47:54Speaker 2: I think, yeah, I'd still have trouble with like the
- 47:58Speaker 2: Chase McBride with another stack though, because like, if it
- 48:01Speaker 2: truly does break it, it's like, man, those guys had
- 48:03Speaker 2: to have the bigger game. I guess almost say, no,
- 48:06Speaker 2: not necessarily because the nine game, it's it is everything,
- 48:09Speaker 2: anything is possible. This is Kevin Garnett screaming into the
- 48:12Speaker 2: Abyss when they win the championship, like anything is possible. Yes,
- 48:14Speaker 2: but just noting it. It's like that's what makes it tricky.
- 48:18Speaker 2: And it's also I don't know if it's that sneaky,
- 48:19Speaker 2: like I think the realistic way is like if I think,
- 48:21Speaker 2: I actually think if Genti fails, it could be the
- 48:23Speaker 2: whole offense does, and then it is just like shut
- 48:25Speaker 2: it down, not actually shut it down, but like just
- 48:28Speaker 2: the way the game goes. It's like it just kind
- 48:30Speaker 2: of plays out, and that could be something with the
- 48:32Speaker 2: Giants d like you said, even if they get a
- 48:33Speaker 2: little bit of steam. But that could make sense from
- 48:35Speaker 2: that perspective. That could be to your Arizona point earlier,
- 48:38Speaker 2: like how that game, if the game actually flipped in
- 48:41Speaker 2: that game, it could be good. In this game, it
- 48:42Speaker 2: could be bad for the Raiders. It could be like
- 48:44Speaker 2: Tracy and the Giants start putting a stop down on
- 48:48Speaker 2: the man and just do it that way, and it
- 48:49Speaker 2: is what it is. So I don't know, I have
- 48:52Speaker 2: different thoughts on it. The geno stack is obviously gonna
- 48:55Speaker 2: look good. But I think it's gonna look good to
- 48:56Speaker 2: a lot of people. And I already know Gent's ownership.
- 48:59Speaker 2: We already you know Meyer's ownership. I think Trey Tucker
- 49:02Speaker 2: is already getting steamed a little bit. I mean, as
- 49:04Speaker 2: a one off, I don't love it, but I won't
- 49:07Speaker 2: I won't say I wouldn't use it, because you know,
- 49:09Speaker 2: it's a fifteen percenter versus a fifty percent. It's not
- 49:12Speaker 2: like that's where I'm okay with it. It's not going
- 49:14Speaker 2: to be the same as your Kyle Williams at low ownership.
- 49:17Speaker 2: But I'm just noting. It's like once the Geno stack hits,
- 49:20Speaker 2: I feel like a lot of other stuff hits with it,
- 49:22Speaker 2: and then it's kind of you know, you either have
- 49:24Speaker 2: it or you don't. So keep that in mind. But
- 49:26Speaker 2: if you only have one build, it's it's not going
- 49:28Speaker 2: to be two different once you go there. I think, so.
- 49:30Speaker 4: Everything you just said gives me kind of two strong
- 49:33Speaker 4: thoughts on this one. With the first is if you're
- 49:36Speaker 4: playing Gino stuff, you need to have at least one
- 49:39Speaker 4: giant spring back, and you might even want to because
- 49:42Speaker 4: the script where this really works and actually leverages gent
- 49:45Speaker 4: instead of also helping Genteks. The offense successful is if
- 49:49Speaker 4: the Giants jump out to a big lead, as improbable
- 49:52Speaker 4: as that sounds, the Giants stripping out to a big lead,
- 49:54Speaker 4: But if they were to do that, and now you say, okay,
- 49:57Speaker 4: gent can't get to twenty carries, he's gonna end up
- 49:59Speaker 4: with a to ten carries because they're just not going
- 50:01Speaker 4: to be able to run the ball all game.
- 50:03Speaker 3: And Gino was able to get there in garbage time.
- 50:06Speaker 4: Like that's the path where Geno Stack is successful and
- 50:10Speaker 4: really does a.
- 50:11Speaker 3: Nice job of leveraging and Gente.
- 50:12Speaker 4: The second thing is you mentioned that you know, okay,
- 50:15Speaker 4: I don't want chaseing McBride with you know, without that
- 50:19Speaker 4: game anyway. Okay, so if you are saving this much
- 50:21Speaker 4: money with the Stack, instead of paying for chasing McBride,
- 50:25Speaker 4: pay for the running backs, yes, pay for a Chan,
- 50:27Speaker 4: pay for cook Er Saquon, pay for Jonathan Taylor a person.
- 50:31Speaker 4: And I don't think Taylors are very good play because
- 50:33Speaker 4: the matchup's really bad. But you know, pay for eight
- 50:35Speaker 4: chan especially and just do it that way. Maybe maybe
- 50:39Speaker 4: you go eight chan and JSN or something like that,
- 50:41Speaker 4: so you're still getting the benefit of Okay, I can
- 50:44Speaker 4: now pay up for all this upside and all these
- 50:47Speaker 4: you know, kind of automatic points from these superstars, but
- 50:50Speaker 4: you're not doing it in a way where you're helping
- 50:53Speaker 4: that Arizona Cincinnati game get there.
- 50:55Speaker 2: Yeah, the second one you nailed spot on, and it's
- 50:57Speaker 2: going to lead to my lane later on. You might
- 50:59Speaker 2: we might be in this this week. I don't know,
- 51:00Speaker 2: but just noting it. It's it's last show of the years.
- 51:03Speaker 2: So I will say that your second point was bang
- 51:06Speaker 2: on with what I was gonna say is, here's the
- 51:08Speaker 2: interesting factor whether you go and honestly, I'll talk about
- 51:10Speaker 2: from both sides, so you go genty or sorry, if
- 51:12Speaker 2: you go, I through fade genty and go Smith, Tucker, Meyer, Slayton. Okay,
- 51:17Speaker 2: you all you have two running back slots and a
- 51:19Speaker 2: flex left wide open, and he doesn't not like everyone
- 51:22Speaker 2: just thinks, oh, I better get to that Chase McBride
- 51:25Speaker 2: spot No, what about getting this something totally different and
- 51:28Speaker 2: flipping the bill that way, like we talked about from
- 51:29Speaker 2: from a DFS perspective, not just a game flip. So
- 51:32Speaker 2: I think that's important, and even on the other side,
- 51:34Speaker 2: it can work if you wanted to go Dart Robinson
- 51:37Speaker 2: and THEO or Dark. When we see Robinson have big games,
- 51:39Speaker 2: it's almost as often as genty, not very often, but
- 51:42Speaker 2: when it is, it's a big game with his quarterback.
- 51:45Speaker 2: And so maybe it's Dart Robinson and it's like THEO
- 51:48Speaker 2: for nine hundred bucks more than Meyer. And then you
- 51:51Speaker 2: can put Trey Tucker into that, and Trey Tucker and
- 51:54Speaker 2: Wanderlay or Wondale sorry, are like your two highestoned guys
- 51:57Speaker 2: that like nothing, wander Lay Wandelay. I always say that
- 51:59Speaker 2: with the yeah no Robinson, if you put him in there,
- 52:02Speaker 2: you could see it. But that build leaves you in
- 52:05Speaker 2: a different spot. You're out on the most popular play
- 52:09Speaker 2: on the slate in this example with gent and then
- 52:11Speaker 2: you're in on a build that is the opposite build
- 52:14Speaker 2: of like the McBride all and you just say that
- 52:16Speaker 2: game spreads out too much or fails in some way,
- 52:18Speaker 2: shape or form where not enough people are gonna have
- 52:21Speaker 2: it in the right way or comfortably. And so I'm
- 52:23Speaker 2: good with where I'm at, and so I love that
- 52:25Speaker 2: call out there. What else? What do you want to
- 52:28Speaker 2: go to next? On sort of talking about leveraging the
- 52:30Speaker 2: common build? What else do you got Yeah.
- 52:32Speaker 4: I think it's just kind of almost a reiteration of
- 52:37Speaker 4: what I just said, which is a lot of the
- 52:40Speaker 4: theme that we've talked about here on the Common build
- 52:41Speaker 4: is the fact that the expensive running backs are on
- 52:43Speaker 4: this appealing this week, but they are still you know,
- 52:47Speaker 4: expensive running backs.
- 52:48Speaker 3: With a lot of upside.
- 52:49Speaker 4: And so I think one way to leverage the common
- 52:51Speaker 4: build this week is just say screw it, I'm gonna
- 52:53Speaker 4: do what we've been doing all year and play the
- 52:55Speaker 4: expensive running backs Perry Chan with you know, someone from
- 52:59Speaker 4: the the Philly game, or even with you know, you
- 53:04Speaker 4: could even like play gent in that way right where
- 53:06Speaker 4: you go a Chan Gent and then another expensive running
- 53:09Speaker 4: back and now a chance actually the cheapest running back
- 53:13Speaker 4: instead of one of the more expensive running backs. That
- 53:15Speaker 4: I think, you know, it's going to show up in
- 53:16Speaker 4: a lot of builds where people are really using Gent
- 53:20Speaker 4: as maybe even the most expensive running back that they
- 53:22Speaker 4: have so that they can pay up at the other positions.
- 53:24Speaker 4: So so yeah, I think that's that's kind of just
- 53:27Speaker 4: the other like big picture way to leverage this light
- 53:31Speaker 4: that I think stands out to me.
- 53:33Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's key. Any other so when we
- 53:35Speaker 2: go to these other games acts. We already had the
- 53:38Speaker 2: Patriot stock, we had the Jaguars talk. We talked through
- 53:41Speaker 2: those ones. The other games obviously aren't very appealing when
- 53:44Speaker 2: it comes to the Stacks. I think you mentioned it earlier,
- 53:47Speaker 2: but I guess the battle of the Titans versus the
- 53:50Speaker 2: Saints to other really bad teams, I definitely still have interests,
- 53:53Speaker 2: Like I know it's going to pick up some steam,
- 53:55Speaker 2: but if you're able to play like Tyler Shuck olave
- 53:57Speaker 2: A Juwan like last week, they all had massive of
- 54:00Speaker 2: games and they did not. Olave did, of course, But
- 54:03Speaker 2: obviously Taysom Hill throwing him that last touchdown. I mean,
- 54:06Speaker 2: he's only twenty seven hundred. Again, he crushed at twenty
- 54:08Speaker 2: five hundred last week. That might be something people are
- 54:10Speaker 2: thinking about too. If you're landing on Michael Meyer two
- 54:13Speaker 2: hundred bucks more, go play some Taysom Hill at twenty
- 54:15Speaker 2: seven hundred. They seem very content continuing to use him.
- 54:19Speaker 2: But the Titan side, I mean, I think the difference
- 54:22Speaker 2: in you and I had good conversation about this the
- 54:24Speaker 2: last couple of weeks is like people are always like
- 54:26Speaker 2: all but I don't know who to play. It's it's
- 54:28Speaker 2: not really about if you have to play someone from
- 54:30Speaker 2: them at all, it's do you believe they can keep
- 54:33Speaker 2: up in this game or force the back and forth?
- 54:35Speaker 2: And I just think for sort of one of the
- 54:37Speaker 2: last games of the season, a good a good chance
- 54:40Speaker 2: for Tennessee to get another win. Same for the Saints
- 54:42Speaker 2: both sides. I think both the records are identical. Believe
- 54:44Speaker 2: two and thirteen. It does seem like you could see
- 54:47Speaker 2: one of the We've seen these types of games go
- 54:48Speaker 2: back and forth before, where it's like, oh, two of
- 54:50Speaker 2: the shittiest teams actually put up two the bigger scores
- 54:53Speaker 2: and fantasy scores because they're they're receivers, their tight ends,
- 54:56Speaker 2: everybody running backs. They're all RB ones, wide receiver ones,
- 55:00Speaker 2: but just for such bad teams. So any thoughts on
- 55:03Speaker 2: this one here?
- 55:04Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree there.
- 55:05Speaker 4: And then the last thing that I'll say on just
- 55:08Speaker 4: how to leverage the common build this week is I
- 55:12Speaker 4: think like there's obviously a temptation, and honestly, it's one
- 55:16Speaker 4: of the more fun aspects of building lineups in DFS
- 55:19Speaker 4: is like, okay, but I want to find the stack
- 55:21Speaker 4: that nobody's on that could end up going off, And
- 55:23Speaker 4: that's a really fun thing to do, and it's an
- 55:25Speaker 4: especially fun thing to hit on. But the best answer
- 55:27Speaker 4: this week might just be, Okay, who is the really
- 55:30Speaker 4: under owned guy within the chop stack? And when I
- 55:35Speaker 4: look through like all of the stacks on this slate,
- 55:37Speaker 4: basically every single one of them has.
- 55:40Speaker 3: A low owned option that has some upside.
- 55:41Speaker 4: Right. So in the Arizona game, you've got Harrison and
- 55:45Speaker 4: Michael Wilson, they're both going to be low owned. In
- 55:48Speaker 4: the Indianapolis and Jacksonville game, I think Parker Washington, Brian
- 55:51Speaker 4: Thomas Junior, Alec Pierce, all three of those guys are
- 55:54Speaker 4: going to be pretty low owned. So as I look
- 55:57Speaker 4: through the slate, leg I just say, this might be
- 56:00Speaker 4: a week where you say, how can I turn a
- 56:03Speaker 4: truck stack into a contrarian stack? More so than you say,
- 56:06Speaker 4: what is the stack that everyone's overlooking and actually has
- 56:09Speaker 4: a great chance of it?
- 56:11Speaker 2: Yeah? And if you're you know, especially great way to
- 56:13Speaker 2: do that is if you're not in on the most
- 56:15Speaker 2: popular game. There's a lot of secondary versions that we
- 56:18Speaker 2: talked about that you can now turn into really good
- 56:21Speaker 2: secondary versions that maybe you feel more comfortable with than
- 56:24Speaker 2: converting the Bengals stack into a Burrow, p Ryan, Yoshivas
- 56:28Speaker 2: Stack where it's like, ah, that might be a bit much, right,
- 56:30Speaker 2: Like you could do this in these other places much easier.
- 56:33Speaker 2: You just mentioned some guys with like Pierce, there was
- 56:34Speaker 2: no way he could have a good game last week,
- 56:37Speaker 2: and then he goes off and crushes I think you
- 56:38Speaker 2: knew he was gonna have a good game if I
- 56:40Speaker 2: recall correctly. But you know Alec Pierce, that is, he
- 56:43Speaker 2: had a really solid game, but everyone's like, oh, he's
- 56:45Speaker 2: not catching a deep ball from from rivers and it's
- 56:48Speaker 2: not that even needed to. Like the way they used him,
- 56:50Speaker 2: that game was just totally different. He was able to
- 56:52Speaker 2: get there just fine. So he's forty seven hundred U
- 56:55Speaker 2: Parker Washington. You mentioned off a big week but not popular.
- 56:58Speaker 2: You know everyone else off a big week is super popular.
- 57:01Speaker 2: Burrow and Gent and all these different guys that those
- 57:03Speaker 2: are the ones that people are moving towards Lawrence. People
- 57:06Speaker 2: are sticking with, but they're not necessarily sticking with the
- 57:08Speaker 2: guy that just had the big game and made him
- 57:10Speaker 2: have a big game against Denver. What if they go
- 57:12Speaker 2: back out and reward him again and say, hey, you're open,
- 57:14Speaker 2: then you could you should definitely be open now we
- 57:16Speaker 2: can get you set up. And I think not that
- 57:19Speaker 2: you know, people are super high on this guy any longer,
- 57:21Speaker 2: but I think Sauce is back right for Indy.
- 57:24Speaker 3: I'm honestly not even sure.
- 57:25Speaker 2: I'd have to look it up or somebody. Maybe I'm missing, uh,
- 57:28Speaker 2: missing that, but I'm pretty sure I read what was it?
- 57:33Speaker 3: No, yeah, yea, but remains out yeah.
- 57:38Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what it was. So again, whatever people want
- 57:40Speaker 2: to say about that, but my point being, if he's
- 57:42Speaker 2: I don't know, maybe following around BTJ Moore or or
- 57:45Speaker 2: mc myers or whatever ends up being like maybe Parker
- 57:47Speaker 2: Washington could have a better game. So I do like
- 57:49Speaker 2: your call out of you know, people recognizing that they're
- 57:51Speaker 2: still his only nine games. There is a superior game
- 57:54Speaker 2: that everybody likes and wants to go to. And then
- 57:56Speaker 2: the main point would be is you can still get
- 57:58Speaker 2: to some of these secondary games, but have better conviction
- 58:01Speaker 2: around different ways to build around those games than in
- 58:05Speaker 2: the game. Everybody wants to build it because that goes
- 58:07Speaker 2: to your point earlier of like me having one lineup
- 58:09Speaker 2: in the Ultimate for example, if I if I end
- 58:11Speaker 2: up with just the one, it's like you don't really
- 58:13Speaker 2: have a lot of choice, but me building around that
- 58:15Speaker 2: since Arizona game is gonna be covered six ways, so
- 58:18Speaker 2: there's gonna be everyone's gonna have that build times five times,
- 58:22Speaker 2: seven times ten, whatever they do to get in on it.
- 58:24Speaker 2: If it hits, it hits. And some people say, well,
- 58:26Speaker 2: if it hits, you're gonna need it. True, but I'm
- 58:28Speaker 2: not gonna play that way because it's not how I play.
- 58:30Speaker 2: So I won't be on that game stack as a whole.
- 58:33Speaker 2: And there actually is a chance I don't anybody from
- 58:35Speaker 2: that game in my lineup just because I'm gonna again,
- 58:37Speaker 2: I'm gonna hope for the chaos, and even if they
- 58:40Speaker 2: do put up points, maybe not in a way that
- 58:42Speaker 2: is needed. And there's other ways that you can get there,
- 58:44Speaker 2: So all right, anything else, and if not, I'm really
- 58:49Speaker 2: worried because I assume you have it, but I'll let
- 58:51Speaker 2: you take it. It is, you know, the last show
- 58:54Speaker 2: of the year. We have our big announcement coming up next.
- 58:55Speaker 2: But let me hear your leverage lane for week seventeen.
- 59:00Speaker 4: This is another week where I'm struggling to kind of
- 59:03Speaker 4: narrow in on a specific leverage lane. But I will
- 59:07Speaker 4: kind of follow the thought that has kind of developed
- 59:10Speaker 4: over over the course of the show, which is I
- 59:13Speaker 4: want to pay up at running back, and for the
- 59:16Speaker 4: second straight week, I think.
- 59:17Speaker 3: Devon Chan is a phenomenal play, So a Chan is
- 59:19Speaker 3: going to be my leverage lane here. Tampa is a
- 59:23Speaker 3: pass funnel.
- 59:24Speaker 4: We know that that has been true about them for
- 59:27Speaker 4: a while now, but it's also true that they are
- 59:30Speaker 4: weakest in the run game against the outside zone. Well,
- 59:34Speaker 4: eight Chan loves outside zone and he breaks a lot
- 59:36Speaker 4: of explosive plays, and Tampa also has a vulnerability in
- 59:40Speaker 4: the run game against explosive runs. They shut down a
- 59:44Speaker 4: lot of run plays, but they also give up a
- 59:46Speaker 4: lot of explosives in the run game. We actually have
- 59:49Speaker 4: Miami projected for the highest explosive rush rate of the
- 59:52Speaker 4: entire week at sixteen point eight percent. That is a big,
- 59:56Speaker 4: big percentage, and I think, you know, eight Chan is once.
- 1:00:00Speaker 3: Again going to be super underround here.
- 1:00:02Speaker 4: I think he's easily the best of the spend of
- 1:00:05Speaker 4: running backs, and the fact that he's just a little
- 1:00:07Speaker 4: bit more expensive than the rest is going to make
- 1:00:09Speaker 4: him even that much more underround where I think we
- 1:00:12Speaker 4: haven't projected at like twelve percent eleven percent something like that.
- 1:00:15Speaker 4: It wouldn't shock me if the game starts and I
- 1:00:17Speaker 4: open the DraftKings app and oh my god, I have
- 1:00:19Speaker 4: Ahan at four percent or something crazy like that. So
- 1:00:22Speaker 4: Ahan is gonna be my leverage language, you know, It's
- 1:00:25Speaker 4: I don't usually like making my leverage lane just one
- 1:00:27Speaker 4: specific player. But I think part of the point here
- 1:00:31Speaker 4: is if I'm using Han, if I'm paying up for
- 1:00:34Speaker 4: the most expensive running back on this particular slate, It's
- 1:00:36Speaker 4: going to make the rest of my roster construction naturally
- 1:00:39Speaker 4: contrarian because I'm spending this much money in a position
- 1:00:42Speaker 4: that other people are trying to save money.
- 1:00:44Speaker 2: Yeah, so we did have the same and it was
- 1:00:46Speaker 2: I think you nailed it though. That was what I
- 1:00:47Speaker 2: was gonna get to. It's like usually it's actually because
- 1:00:49Speaker 2: I'm not set on the stack yet, so I'm gonna
- 1:00:52Speaker 2: give a separate one and I will use this elite
- 1:00:54Speaker 2: somewhere I can't commit to one hundred percent. Sale'll use
- 1:00:56Speaker 2: it in my thirty three thirty three because I'll think
- 1:00:58Speaker 2: about it, but I'll go to it in a second.
- 1:00:59Speaker 2: But to your pol point, it wasn't just the a
- 1:01:01Speaker 2: Chan factor. It's the eighty five hundred dollars running back
- 1:01:04Speaker 2: on a week when a lot of the setup is
- 1:01:05Speaker 2: gonna be with gent and a cheaper running back and
- 1:01:08Speaker 2: a two tight end build. And that's I mean, I
- 1:01:10Speaker 2: could just say that too. It's unlikely that it's a
- 1:01:12Speaker 2: two tight end build it for my main but just
- 1:01:14Speaker 2: of note one stack I'll bring up and I talked
- 1:01:16Speaker 2: a little bit about it earlier. I tried it out
- 1:01:18Speaker 2: last week. It was very close to me. Good the
- 1:01:21Speaker 2: namesake Tyler Shuck. I'm gonna go back to these Saints.
- 1:01:23Speaker 2: I do think that it was very condensed. You can
- 1:01:26Speaker 2: go to that side of it. I actually don't even
- 1:01:27Speaker 2: have anything against like a Tony Pollard on the other side,
- 1:01:30Speaker 2: and the way he's been working around things, and he's
- 1:01:32Speaker 2: fifty five hundred, which sort of fits in. If I
- 1:01:34Speaker 2: go to this game, it's very likely that I just
- 1:01:36Speaker 2: avoid Arizona Sincy altogether. You could still fit in an
- 1:01:40Speaker 2: a Chan, you could fit in other studs or whatever
- 1:01:42Speaker 2: you want to put into it. But I like shock.
- 1:01:44Speaker 2: I like Juwan Johnson at forty two hundred. I like
- 1:01:47Speaker 2: Tony Pollard at fifty five hundred. I think when two
- 1:01:49Speaker 2: bad teams face off, you can sometimes see smarksply fantasy
- 1:01:53Speaker 2: points wise and you know, back and forth in this game,
- 1:01:56Speaker 2: I think could be a little bit interesting. I don't
- 1:01:57Speaker 2: think it'll be the lowest OWE, but I also think
- 1:02:00Speaker 2: that there's enough plays games stacks things like that well
- 1:02:04Speaker 2: in front of it where I think that's where I'm
- 1:02:06Speaker 2: more than fine getting away. But it kind of actually
- 1:02:08Speaker 2: hits on your point earlier of I'm not going to
- 1:02:10Speaker 2: secondary options within this game stack would probably be the
- 1:02:13Speaker 2: more popular spot within this but you're down the chain
- 1:02:16Speaker 2: of that, you know, back to a Chan, but you
- 1:02:18Speaker 2: know you're down that chain a little bit of where
- 1:02:21Speaker 2: people are actually going on this slate. And even if
- 1:02:23Speaker 2: Tyler shucks seven to ten percent and Olave is fifteen
- 1:02:27Speaker 2: to twenty or somewhere in that range, and Juwan Johnson's
- 1:02:29Speaker 2: up there a bit, they not everybody can be owned,
- 1:02:31Speaker 2: and so you know, you're still leaving out some of
- 1:02:33Speaker 2: these big options. So I'll give that for mine. I
- 1:02:36Speaker 2: am in. I'm with you one hudred percent on a CHAN.
- 1:02:38Speaker 2: I really like that spot. This week, somebody said, who's
- 1:02:41Speaker 2: the run back? They don't have to run it back.
- 1:02:43Speaker 2: I mean you could just have them, you could have
- 1:02:44Speaker 2: him with the Miami defense. You could have Baker stacks
- 1:02:47Speaker 2: with Baker Evans. I mean, Evans looks really good again,
- 1:02:50Speaker 2: he looked awesome last week.
- 1:02:53Speaker 3: Evans.
- 1:02:53Speaker 2: The answer, yeah, if you're really picking one. I mean,
- 1:02:56Speaker 2: people say, like, oh, you know, the funny part is like,
- 1:02:59Speaker 2: that's kind of the cost almost of like a McBride
- 1:03:02Speaker 2: and Chase. But the difference is, no one's really gonna
- 1:03:04Speaker 2: have those games. I say, no one lightly. Obviously somebody will.
- 1:03:07Speaker 2: I'm just saying when those two go off, it's not
- 1:03:09Speaker 2: the same as when Jamar Chase and McBride go off
- 1:03:13Speaker 2: and you say, well, of course I got them right,
- 1:03:15Speaker 2: but I didn't have all those other pieces these guys had.
- 1:03:17Speaker 2: Well these guys are these other people built a ton
- 1:03:19Speaker 2: of lineups and they had you covered. And that's the difference.
- 1:03:22Speaker 2: So in single entry, there's still gonna be a ton
- 1:03:25Speaker 2: of game stacks that will be over the top of you,
- 1:03:28Speaker 2: versus if you have like a Baker, or if you
- 1:03:30Speaker 2: have an Evans an a Chan or a Baker Evans
- 1:03:32Speaker 2: h Chan, you're gonna be in a league of your
- 1:03:34Speaker 2: own for the most part, or a very small portion
- 1:03:37Speaker 2: of the league is going to have that. In this example,
- 1:03:39Speaker 2: and you're gonna be able to find your way to
- 1:03:41Speaker 2: the top in that model. So love that. All right,
- 1:03:44Speaker 2: we got one announcement. Do you have anything else you
- 1:03:46Speaker 2: want to hit on before I pull it up?
- 1:03:48Speaker 3: No, I think it's got all right.
- 1:03:50Speaker 2: Let us know in the chat you're feeling on this.
- 1:03:52Speaker 2: We've been waiting a while to bring this up. You know,
- 1:03:55Speaker 2: people have given us a ton of really good feedback
- 1:03:57Speaker 2: as the season went on, and we've been saying if
- 1:04:00Speaker 2: you caught it, we did the old dad joke of
- 1:04:01Speaker 2: saying the last show of the year. That doesn't mean
- 1:04:04Speaker 2: the last show that we're gonna do though. There's gonna
- 1:04:07Speaker 2: be another show coming up. I hope you're all very excited.
- 1:04:10Speaker 2: But starting at the Sony open for the PGA DFS
- 1:04:14Speaker 2: season right here on the ship at Nation YouTube station,
- 1:04:16Speaker 2: make sure to hit that thumbs up. Make sure you're subscribed.
- 1:04:19Speaker 2: Let us knowne the comments, your feelings and thoughts on
- 1:04:21Speaker 2: this show upcoming. But I'm excited, Alex, We're coming back.
- 1:04:24Speaker 2: We're bringing out the PGA DFS version. We got a
- 1:04:27Speaker 2: ton of feedback all season long of people wanting us
- 1:04:30Speaker 2: to do this, and I think this is gonna be awesome.
- 1:04:33Speaker 2: I'm very excited obviously a long season with PGA, but
- 1:04:35Speaker 2: I'm excited to do it with you, and I'm excited
- 1:04:37Speaker 2: that we got the show each and every week coming out.
- 1:04:39Speaker 2: It's gonna be on Wednesdays and current tentative but should
- 1:04:42Speaker 2: stick is ten thirty am Eastern, so that if you
- 1:04:46Speaker 2: can watch it live, great, If you can't, you can
- 1:04:47Speaker 2: watch it on your lunch break after work, on the
- 1:04:49Speaker 2: way home, whatever. It might be tons of time to
- 1:04:52Speaker 2: get it in before lock on Thursday morning.
- 1:04:55Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, look, look like we we obviously love
- 1:04:58Speaker 4: nflthy AFS. I think we both might like PGA DFS
- 1:05:02Speaker 4: even more than an NFL So this is gonna be
- 1:05:05Speaker 4: an absolute blast for the for the entire season, and
- 1:05:08Speaker 4: I can't wait to to talk about it. Like a
- 1:05:11Speaker 4: lot of the same principles, I don't think people who
- 1:05:15Speaker 4: haven't tried PGA DFS realize how much carryover there is
- 1:05:20Speaker 4: in terms of NFL DFS strategy to PGA DFS strategy,
- 1:05:24Speaker 4: and a lot of what we've talked about this year
- 1:05:27Speaker 4: like that has been unique to leverage lane when you
- 1:05:29Speaker 4: compare it to a lot of the other NFL shows
- 1:05:31Speaker 4: around the industry, like the you know, the the conditional
- 1:05:34Speaker 4: ownership stuff, the pairings if you will, that plays a
- 1:05:38Speaker 4: massive role in PGADFS. So I think we're we've got
- 1:05:41Speaker 4: a really nice edge over in PGADFS, and I think
- 1:05:44Speaker 4: we're gonna hopefully, you know, teach people how to take
- 1:05:47Speaker 4: advantage of that all season.
- 1:05:48Speaker 3: It's gonna be a lot of fun.
- 1:05:49Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's gonna be crazy. Like you know,
- 1:05:50Speaker 2: a lot of people don't know that. That's like you
- 1:05:52Speaker 2: where it's not who you play, it's how you play
- 1:05:53Speaker 2: them starting not even in football because it replies everywhere,
- 1:05:56Speaker 2: but in DFS it was always the point of like
- 1:05:58Speaker 2: someone telling me, you can't play John ra I'm at
- 1:06:00Speaker 2: the Mexico Open obviously ram od to live now, but
- 1:06:03Speaker 2: just notice, like you can't play them there, he's gonna
- 1:06:05Speaker 2: be thirty five percent own. It's like you can you
- 1:06:06Speaker 2: can literally lock him if you want. You can play
- 1:06:08Speaker 2: him in your single entry and get different. There's a
- 1:06:10Speaker 2: ton of different stuff, but I know the two biggest
- 1:06:13Speaker 2: pieces of feedback that we got, and we're thankful for
- 1:06:15Speaker 2: everybody and appreciate all the support, but it was the
- 1:06:17Speaker 2: two common themes were one, there's not enough content based
- 1:06:22Speaker 2: around single Entry, GPP Focus. Right, those are obviously the
- 1:06:24Speaker 2: tournaments that most can get into. You can extrapolate the
- 1:06:27Speaker 2: thought process up and down. MM is not for everybody.
- 1:06:31Speaker 2: Even if you take our thoughts, you can still apply
- 1:06:32Speaker 2: them if you liked Hey, look today we talked about
- 1:06:35Speaker 2: the Geno Smith Stacks, we talked about the Trevor Lawrence Stacks,
- 1:06:37Speaker 2: Tyler Shuck. It's like, well, I feel like I want
- 1:06:39Speaker 2: to play three to five max. Now you can't. Now
- 1:06:41Speaker 2: you've got some thoughts on how you might play the
- 1:06:43Speaker 2: Shuck lineups. Now you got some thoughts on a Baker
- 1:06:45Speaker 2: with Evans, with a Chan you can go play five max.
- 1:06:48Speaker 2: But the thought process has all been around single entry.
- 1:06:51Speaker 2: That was the first piece. But the overwhelming piece that
- 1:06:53Speaker 2: we got, and this is what we couldn't be more
- 1:06:55Speaker 2: thankful for, was people just saying the combination of you
- 1:06:58Speaker 2: and I together and doing this show, and the chemistry
- 1:07:00Speaker 2: and the back and forth and different thoughts and ideas
- 1:07:03Speaker 2: and then putting them all together. So we're excited to
- 1:07:05Speaker 2: be able to run that back. It makes quote unquote
- 1:07:08Speaker 2: work very easy when it doesn't feel like work at all.
- 1:07:10Speaker 2: I have a ton of fun doing this with you.
- 1:07:12Speaker 2: It's like two buddies, just shooting the shit back and forth,
- 1:07:14Speaker 2: coming up with thoughts and ideas and putting them out
- 1:07:16Speaker 2: there and hopefully helping others. And I think we've done
- 1:07:18Speaker 2: a good job of that. So can't thank everybody enough.
- 1:07:20Speaker 2: We appreciate all the support. We're excited to be able
- 1:07:22Speaker 2: to run it back for PGA. No, but I would
- 1:07:27Speaker 2: love to, being honest, right, PGA show should be great.
- 1:07:32Speaker 2: Break out the my ties. I mean there was a
- 1:07:33Speaker 2: little you know, the Hawaii the Century Tournament of Champions.
- 1:07:37Speaker 2: They shut it down this year. But it will I mean,
- 1:07:40Speaker 2: my man, Aaron, you've been here all day. I mean,
- 1:07:42Speaker 2: I love you and the support, but will it be
- 1:07:44Speaker 2: Leverage Lane? Will literally be Leverage Lane for PGA dfs,
- 1:07:49Speaker 2: the exact same show you're watching right now, my friends.
- 1:07:51Speaker 2: So yeah, it'll be exactly what you expect and everything
- 1:07:55Speaker 2: you got from this show, just applying it to the
- 1:07:56Speaker 2: PGA streets now and there. I mean, there's a ton
- 1:07:59Speaker 2: of good things going on in PGA throughout the seat.
- 1:08:01Speaker 2: It's a long season, right, you have big majors, you
- 1:08:03Speaker 2: have all these other different things, and so we think
- 1:08:06Speaker 2: Wednesdays are good. You get enough information by then then
- 1:08:09Speaker 2: obviously you can go to the respective spots and find
- 1:08:11Speaker 2: outlex and stuff, find our stuff. You'll be able to
- 1:08:13Speaker 2: have all that. We'll bring all that into the fold
- 1:08:15Speaker 2: and give you as much information as we can, and
- 1:08:17Speaker 2: there'll be a ton of evergreen learnings as well that
- 1:08:19Speaker 2: you could just apply just to become a better PGADFS
- 1:08:22Speaker 2: player and hopefully more successful, more profitable. That's really what
- 1:08:24Speaker 2: it's all about, Alex. Any other thoughts, any final thoughts,
- 1:08:27Speaker 2: and then let people know where they can find you
- 1:08:29Speaker 2: for the rest of this week and the rest of
- 1:08:30Speaker 2: the NFL season.
- 1:08:32Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't really have any anything else. It's going
- 1:08:35Speaker 4: to be so much fun talking PGA. And I think
- 1:08:39Speaker 4: you know the nice thing too about pg Like you said,
- 1:08:43Speaker 4: it's where a lot of like these kind of thoughts
- 1:08:46Speaker 4: that we've talked about all season have really originated for us.
- 1:08:49Speaker 4: Where I know, like I found a ton of success
- 1:08:52Speaker 4: in PGA dfs before I found success in other DFS sports,
- 1:08:55Speaker 4: and a lot of the reason why I've been successful
- 1:08:57Speaker 4: in other DFS sports since are because they said, okay,
- 1:08:59Speaker 4: well what can I apply to NFLDFS or mlbdfs that
- 1:09:05Speaker 4: I have learned and that has made me successful in
- 1:09:06Speaker 4: PGA DFS, so I think hopefully we do a pretty
- 1:09:12Speaker 4: good job of like naturally talking about the strategy in
- 1:09:15Speaker 4: NFL DFS here throughout the year on Leverage Laan. I
- 1:09:18Speaker 4: think what you guys might find is that the conversation
- 1:09:21Speaker 4: is even more natural and free flowing in pgadfs because
- 1:09:24Speaker 4: it's where a lot of our thoughts and strategies have originated.
- 1:09:27Speaker 4: So I can't wait for the season as a whole.
- 1:09:29Speaker 4: I can't wait for the Sony Open January fourteenth or
- 1:09:32Speaker 4: whatever it is. And yeah, I can't wait to get rolling.
- 1:09:35Speaker 4: But as always, you can find my stuff at alex
- 1:09:37Speaker 4: Bloka one on Twitter, whether you want the GPP scores
- 1:09:40Speaker 4: in ownership over at FTN or you want kind of
- 1:09:43Speaker 4: the events DFS theory props and pick them that I
- 1:09:45Speaker 4: have got over my discroup.
- 1:09:47Speaker 2: Yeah, it's gonna be a lot of fun. I think
- 1:09:48Speaker 2: the other fun part is that from a single edgity perspective,
- 1:09:51Speaker 2: I mean to two things. One those if you don't
- 1:09:53Speaker 2: play PGA dfs, this will be a good reason for
- 1:09:55Speaker 2: you to start, because you can check this show out
- 1:09:57Speaker 2: for free and follow along. And obviously we don't talking
- 1:10:00Speaker 2: about you'd be able to find that out. But the
- 1:10:02Speaker 2: main thing is when I first started playing DFS as
- 1:10:05Speaker 2: a whole, it was always just golf and then NFL
- 1:10:08Speaker 2: because it's like you have all week to work on it,
- 1:10:10Speaker 2: like when golf, even when football was on at the
- 1:10:12Speaker 2: same time as golf, like it still technically will be
- 1:10:14Speaker 2: with the divisional round playoffs upcoming. It's like you can
- 1:10:17Speaker 2: do a lot of stuff at night, whether you have
- 1:10:18Speaker 2: a significant other, kids, full time job, whatever it might be,
- 1:10:21Speaker 2: you can get into the pgadf S streets and it's
- 1:10:24Speaker 2: pretty easy to get the concept of it. It's then
- 1:10:27Speaker 2: the game theory and the leverage and putting it all
- 1:10:29Speaker 2: to Yeah, that's where the show is going to be about,
- 1:10:31Speaker 2: and then taking the tools and applying them from there.
- 1:10:33Speaker 2: But the other thing is it's a little bit different
- 1:10:36Speaker 2: than NFL. Like to your point earlier, actually a great
- 1:10:38Speaker 2: one of today. Just a little tidbit or spoiler I
- 1:10:41Speaker 2: guess is like when you say, oh, well, you know
- 1:10:43Speaker 2: we won't want to have one lineup versus everybody else
- 1:10:46Speaker 2: having a bunch, Well, in football, that's really tricky because
- 1:10:48Speaker 2: it's like game stacks are going to crush you all
- 1:10:50Speaker 2: of this and it can be tricky, like to Scottie
- 1:10:52Speaker 2: Scheffler or not to Scottie Scheffler, But it's when you
- 1:10:54Speaker 2: have one lineup, you can still feel really comfortable in pgadfs.
- 1:10:58Speaker 2: And even if that's how you just get your feet wet,
- 1:11:00Speaker 2: get started, that's what I would suggest. But yeah, I
- 1:11:02Speaker 2: think if you don't play PGADFS already, you'll want to
- 1:11:04Speaker 2: start playing it. It's a great sport. It's grown a
- 1:11:07Speaker 2: ton in the last couple of years of people coming
- 1:11:09Speaker 2: over from these other sports because just recognizing, okay, I
- 1:11:12Speaker 2: got to pick six golfers and then start applying some
- 1:11:15Speaker 2: of the other theory and process to it makes it
- 1:11:17Speaker 2: a ton of fun. There's a lot of good data
- 1:11:19Speaker 2: and tools and things like that you can bring into it.
- 1:11:21Speaker 2: So yeah, should be a ton of fun. If you
- 1:11:23Speaker 2: guys want to join us over at ship a nation,
- 1:11:25Speaker 2: you could do so the codes up there ship nineteen
- 1:11:27Speaker 2: five days for nineteen dollars go collect says no late swap.
- 1:11:30Speaker 2: It's pretty sweet to set it and forget it. Except
- 1:11:33Speaker 2: when deck he throws out his back and his neck
- 1:11:34Speaker 2: and his back post lock. Yeah, it happens.
- 1:11:38Speaker 4: But there's one other aspect of PGA that I think
- 1:11:41Speaker 4: is super fun, which is the the satellites and the qualifiers.
- 1:11:46Speaker 4: I think we might end up talking even more about
- 1:11:48Speaker 4: like our strategy and how we kind of attack those.
- 1:11:50Speaker 4: Because in NFL, the satellites and qualifiers like sometimes they
- 1:11:54Speaker 4: you know, they set them for random weeks and specific
- 1:11:57Speaker 4: showdowns and things of that nature or here in Week
- 1:11:59Speaker 4: seven team. But in PGA, every single satellite is super
- 1:12:04Speaker 4: specifically targeted for the Players Championship, and then once you
- 1:12:08Speaker 4: get through the Players, it's for the Masters, and then
- 1:12:11Speaker 4: once you get through the Masters, it's for the PGA Championship, right,
- 1:12:13Speaker 4: And so it's it's so segmented that way, and you
- 1:12:16Speaker 4: know what you're trying for. And you made an awesome
- 1:12:19Speaker 4: point there, which is, if you have one lineup up
- 1:12:21Speaker 4: against you know, uticaw playing the hundred in NFL, he's
- 1:12:26Speaker 4: going to do all sorts of like inverse correlation things
- 1:12:28Speaker 4: between his lineups that really boost his win probability at
- 1:12:33Speaker 4: your expense. In PGA, you can't really do that. And
- 1:12:37Speaker 4: so in PGA, if you only have one ticket and
- 1:12:40Speaker 4: you're playing you know, seven hundred other people or three
- 1:12:44Speaker 4: thousand other lineups, you're not at a severe disadvantage.
- 1:12:47Speaker 3: For that fact.
- 1:12:48Speaker 4: So the the satellite strategy, the ticket strategy, it's even
- 1:12:52Speaker 4: more powerful in PJ And I think there's also an
- 1:12:55Speaker 4: element there of like you get you get a lot
- 1:12:58Speaker 4: of non PGAs players who are really good at dfs
- 1:13:03Speaker 4: and have a lot of money, and they'll just say,
- 1:13:05Speaker 4: all right, I'm going to go play the Megamilly this week,
- 1:13:07Speaker 4: even though I don't know a damn thing about PGA,
- 1:13:09Speaker 4: because it's the Masters and I want to watch, and
- 1:13:11Speaker 4: so maybe the competition.
- 1:13:12Speaker 3: Also is quite as strong as it is an NFL.
- 1:13:14Speaker 4: So basically, like every single reason to love NFL DFS
- 1:13:19Speaker 4: is kind of magnified for PGA.
- 1:13:21Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure, it's a lot of fun. I think,
- 1:13:23Speaker 2: like I said, if nothing else, this will be a
- 1:13:24Speaker 2: way that you can sort of get your feet wet.
- 1:13:25Speaker 2: It's one lineup you can throw it in if you're playing,
- 1:13:27Speaker 2: and you'll follow what we're talking about, a single landry
- 1:13:29Speaker 2: you can put in a single entry tournament of any
- 1:13:31Speaker 2: dollar value that fits your bankroll. If you have FOMO
- 1:13:33Speaker 2: and want to throw it into the lottery still because
- 1:13:35Speaker 2: it could still win, that go ahead. And if you
- 1:13:37Speaker 2: want to put it in your satellite you can do
- 1:13:38Speaker 2: that as well, obviously different thought processes in different camps
- 1:13:42Speaker 2: and all of those things, but that's what we'll be
- 1:13:43Speaker 2: talking about. So showdown is great as well. We don't
- 1:13:45Speaker 2: have a showdown version of this, but we'll have more
- 1:13:48Speaker 2: PGADFS news from shiber Nation in the January first week
- 1:13:51Speaker 2: of January leading in so we'll let you guys know
- 1:13:53Speaker 2: that when we get there. This has been awesome. Guys,
- 1:13:56Speaker 2: we really appreciate you so much. We were excited we
- 1:13:58Speaker 2: could do this, bring Leverage Lane out there season and
- 1:14:00Speaker 2: launched the show. It's been an awesome season. Week eighteen
- 1:14:03Speaker 2: a bit of a shit show, as most know, will
- 1:14:04Speaker 2: still be covering it at ship a Nation. He'll be
- 1:14:06Speaker 2: covering it at FTN and with his stuff and his
- 1:14:08Speaker 2: discord for Alex, but just noting it. No leverage Lane
- 1:14:11Speaker 2: for next week. We will be back January fourteenth for
- 1:14:14Speaker 2: the Sony Open for the PGA DFS series debut of
- 1:14:18Speaker 2: Leverage Lane for PGA DFS. That's gonna do it for
- 1:14:20Speaker 2: this season, guys, for Alex, for myself, Totagg and Tambau,
- 1:14:23Speaker 2: thank you for watching and led ship it