Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 384 - 10/29/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 384 - 10/29/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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  54321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
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  Hello and welcome. To.
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  Episode 384 of the All Systems Go.
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  Sports betting podcast powered by rhythm I'm your.
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  Host Josh. Applebaum.
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  What's going on, everyone? Happy Wednesday.
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  It's officially. Hump Day.
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  That means we're. Halfway through our work week,
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  guys, and we got a lot to talk about on today's podcast.
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  We do have a best bet for you. Lined up here in college.
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  Football. So we got this.
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  Week. Weekday College.
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  Football opportunity here again you're.
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  Going to get pretty much college football games I think.
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  Every day for the next. Like 50 days.
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  Or something like that. So. 2.
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  Games overall Jacksonville State Middle.
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  Tennessee. State is your 730.
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  Game FIU Missouri State 8. O'clock is your your second.
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  Nightcap here and I got to play on one of the two.
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  So I'm going to give you a breakdown here with.
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  A good sharp line move, some good splits, a good sharp mush
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  edge, as well as a kind of a specific.
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  Betting system, that system that we've seen tied to Conference
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  USA so one play here in college football.
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  And then because it is a Wednesday, we got to talk about.
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  An early, sharp report for the NFL.
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  So you're now going to NFL Week 9?
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  Pretty much. Halfway.
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  Through the season, a little. Bit more than halfway.
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  Through the season, I guess. And I'm going to take a little
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  bit different of an approach here.
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  Because if you've been paying attention, it has been brutal.
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  Out there for contrarians, we've seen these favorites just
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  absolutely dominate. So I don't want to just.
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  Abandoned completely the. Dog sharp reverse line.
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  Move, you know, system edge. Play here.
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  Contrarian play with dogs, but I do.
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  Want to kind of hopefully capitalize what?
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  We've seen across the market, which is basically the odds
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  makers undervaluing favorites, maybe overvaluing dogs, but I do
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  have. 3 short money line. Favorites here that.
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  Caught my eye and what? I like about these three
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  favorites are that they have some really good.
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  Line moves in their. Favor, but then also they're.
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  Not. Super public like they're
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  basically 5050 line moves, low bets, higher dollars.
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  Like none of these teams are getting. 60 seventy 80% so we
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  can hopefully. Capitalize on this.
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  Favorite trend that we've seen? But then also.
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  Not be super public so. 3 early. Bets here in the NFL along with
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  a college play for tonight. Now looking.
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  Back to our last night, guys. We continue to be snake bit.
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  It continues. To be rough out there, I'm just
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  trying to break the dam, break the seal because it.
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  Continues to be just absolutely. Terrible.
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  You look at last night. Vijay Edgecomb over. 19 1/2
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  points. They scored.
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  A million and a half. Points in that game.
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  You saw the Sixers. Win 139 to 134, but our guy
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  Edgecomb. Nope, he couldn't go over 19
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  1/2. He landed.
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  On 14 it even. Went to overtime and he had a
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  couple. Opportunities to make a three.
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  And couldn't nail it. So that was disappointing the.
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  Warriors game was not even close.
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  Over 224 1/2. 225. They break basically 100.
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  And 78 points. I mean, didn't even come close.
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  You had no offense whatsoever from both those teams.
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  But the coup de grace And this is a perfect example of.
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  When things aren't going well for you.
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  It's just like, I don't know what it is.
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  It's something cosmic, it's something from the betting gods.
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  It's like, how are you? Going to hurt me tonight.
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  How are you going to crush my soul in some ridiculous way when
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  things aren't going well? And it happened.
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  To be the UTEP. Game now, I fully admit.
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  There was a bad sign before the UTEP game.
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  Getting plus 10 1/2 you saw. Steam.
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  Drive that line all the way up to Kennesaw State as high as -12
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  1/2. So I'm like.
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  Oh, oh, that's not good. So again, that was kind of a.
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  Warning sign red flag prior to the game starting.
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  But then the game. Starts and UTEP is battling.
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  At one point. They have a lead deep.
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  Into the the third quarter, going into the fourth quarter,
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  remember they're a big double digit dog.
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  We had a good rhythm. Edge with that match up.
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  They were. Contrarian with an inflated
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  line. You know the conference dog
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  angle again. We're all lighting up.
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  Here with the points. And if you didn't?
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  Watch this game, nothing matters.
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  To you all you know is that they lost by 13 they.
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  Didn't cover the number. But this was one of those.
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  Games where #1. They're winning late, they're
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  battling. It was always about a, you know,
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  a three. Point game either way.
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  And then? You get into the fourth quarter
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  and there were some and again, I don't want to be the person I
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  always. See on you know #gambling
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  Twitter, people complain about the refs.
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  And to me, that's. Kind of a sour grapes kind of
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  thing because. Again, sometimes the.
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  Refs are going to help you. Sometimes the refs are going.
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  To hurt you. If you complain about the refs,
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  usually that's just. Again, just a sign that.
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  You're looking for someone to blame here.
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  But I must admit. If you watch that game.
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  You know what I'm talking about because.
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  That was one of the. Worst officiating performances
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  I've ever seen I'm. Not going to say we had a Tim
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  Donaghy situation. Or a Terry Rozier situation, but
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  if you had watched. That game there were multiple.
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  Occasions where UTEP forced like a. 4th and eight. 1/4 and 15 and
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  on three separate. Occasions they had a.
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  Roughing the passer or. A personal foul or some
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  ridiculous calls from the refs to extend the drive and allow
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  Kennesaw. State to continue to score.
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  And there was one in particular where.
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  The quarterback for Kennesaw. State was rolling out.
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  I think at the time they're up by three, I want to say in the
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  fourth quarter. He rolls to his right.
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  He throws across his body. UTEP intercepts the pass so.
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  Not only does Kennesaw not score, but.
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  UTEP gets the ball back to hopefully can continue to fight
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  back and cover this. Number.
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  These idiot. Refs, I don't know if they're
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  incompetent. Or they're on the take.
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  Or. What?
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  And again, this again means nothing to you if you didn't
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  watch the game. But if you watch the game.
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  I just, I got to vent a little bit because it was one of the
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  most lopsided. And you go on Twitter.
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  Just search like UTEP you'll. See a stream of people.
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  Tweeting about it, the quarterback goes off the
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  sidelines. Or kind of fades.
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  Into the sideline, the UTEP guy, Barely.
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  Touched him and I'm not. Even exaggerating.
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  Here barely put his hand. On him, the quarterback.
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  Goes down. It was.
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  Not a personal foul. It was not.
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  A roughing the passer. What it What are the refs do?
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  On 4th and. Whatever.
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  After UTEP intercept the ball? Nope.
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  Personal foul roughing the passer.
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  So instead of getting the. Ball, Kennesaw State.
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  Or getting the ball for UTEP. Kennesaw State continues, kicks
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  a field. Goal.
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  Now if that wasn't bad enough, and there are multiple times
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  here. Where Kennesaw State had 4th.
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  Down and their personal fouls that extended.
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  The drive there was another late play where it was a pass
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  interference call. Guy throws.
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  It deep for Kennesaw State. UTEP guy breaks it up.
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  Barely touched him. Pass interference, terrible pass
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  interference in the end zone. So not only were the calls
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  against us, but. Still, Despite that despite.
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  The line going to Kennesaw. Despite all of these, you know,
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  terrible breaks. With the refs that are going
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  against us. UTEP still could have covered
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  that game. The score was. 26 to 20.
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  So UTEP was down by. 6 and even the the.
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  Announcers were talking about this.
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  Kennesaw State had the. Opportunity.
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  There was only one, I think it was.
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  Two timeouts left for UTEP. Kennesaw State was.
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  In the red zone, they're. Actually I think. 1st and 10 or
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  first and goal Kennesaw. State.
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  All they had to do. Was kneel down, take two knees.
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  There's like a minute left. If they knee it once, they knee
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  it again. The.
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  Game is over. Kennesaw wins by 6.
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  We cover UTEP. But what did Kennesaw State
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  decide to do? Kennesaw.
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  State didn't kneel it down. They decide to run the.
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  Ball and score a touchdown. To kill us.
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  And even to make. Matters worse again.
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  This is when things aren't going.
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  Your way it almost gets. Comical.
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  It almost feels like it's. Personal betting has this.
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  Really weird way. Of doing this to you.
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  But there's another play where. Even though.
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  Kennesaw State scores that touchdown.
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  And kills us. And we're down 13.
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  Meaningless. Again, they could have just
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  taken a couple knees and the announcers even said.
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  It they're like. If my math is correct, Kennesaw
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  State can just take two knees and get out of here and
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  guarantee a win. Even beyond that.
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  UTEP gets the ball back and UTEP throws a little little seam pass
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  and the guy runs almost all the way down the field.
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  Gets tackled at the 2 yard line with like 20.
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  Seconds left. So I'm like.
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  OK, UTEP can score here and and still back to our cover.
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  What happens? Video review the guy's.
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  Knee scraped. At like the 50 yard.
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  Line on the dirt. Which means he was.
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  Down at the 50. There was even a hail.
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  Mary, that was kind of close. But again, UTEP loses by 13.
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  But the refs the terrible. Calls and again I I sound like I
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  have. To vent a little bit, because it
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  is, it's super. Frustrating when you're a tough.
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  Losing streak, losing that way, making it even.
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  Worse, but man, that was. Just one of the worst bad beats
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  that I've experienced in quite a long time.
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  And again, when things aren't going your way, sometimes they
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  pile up and get even worse. And.
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  That's what happened last night. Guys O and. 3 -, 3 units just.
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  Brutal. The You're going to have winning
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  streaks. You're gonna have losing
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  streaks. You're running pretty good.
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  Now we're in a very. Very terrible losing streak
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  right now. You can't smash your window.
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  You can't break your TV. Just got to keep grinding.
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  So. We're going.
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  To see if we can. Hopefully get a winner tonight,
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  break the dam and hopefully get back to our winning ways.
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  But I I fully admit that UTEP game was a microcosm of the way
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  things have gone recently and just ABS I literally.
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  Was about to throw up. At the ending of that UTEP game.
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  Just absolutely sickening. But anyway, guys, with that
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  being said, no. One's going to.
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  Take our away our betting. Card and saying you're in a cold
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  stretch, you can't bet anymore. But we can get back in.
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  The arena and. Hopefully claw our way back.
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  So one bet here for. Tonight and then we will talk
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  some NFL upcoming this weekend. So the one game I wanted to hit.
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  On for tonight. Let's look at.
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  Jacksonville State and Middle. Tennessee State, This is the
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  early game. In the doubleheader in
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  Conference USA Tonight, 7:30 PM Eastern.
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  Time it is on ESPN. 2. So you should be able to watch
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  it. If you want now let.
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  Me start with the side. We have seen this line move
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  toward Middle Tennessee State. Now going into it.
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  We have Jacksonville State 4:00 and 3:00.
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  Jacksonville State has won. Three of their last four.
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  They just beat. Delaware 38 to 20. 5 They're
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  coming off a. Bye Middle Tennessee State
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  they've. Struggled.
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  They're one and six. On the year and they've lost
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  four in a row and they actually just played.
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  Delaware as well. Lost. 31 to 28.
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  However, public is all over Jacksonville State.
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  And I don't blame them. Again, better record.
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  They open around -6. But even though they're getting.
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  77% of spread bets, they're down to -3 1/2, so it's pretty clear
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  the line is moving toward. Middle Tennessee State.
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  I'm going to. Focus on the total.
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  The total. Really jumped out to me because
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  again. I don't know, maybe maybe.
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  I'm just gun shy with some of these dogs and.
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  I also don't want to get the worst of the.
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  Number. You got 6.
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  You can get 3 1/2 now, so you're not getting the greatest number,
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  but. Again, line is reverse line.
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  Move toward middle. Tennessee State.
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  So that's the side I. Would lean.
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  That's the side I'm rooting. For if anyone likes Middle
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  Tennessee State. But the total is what really
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  intrigued me. Because this total opened at. 53
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  1/2. And we've seen this total.
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  Creep up to 50. 4 1/2 so it's ticked up a point.
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  If you. Look at the splits right now,
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  they look pretty good on the over at DraftKings. 76% of bets,
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  89% of dollars are on the over. If you look at the.
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  Ticket split at Circa. It's only about 5050 with the
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  tickets, but what do we always talk about 5050?
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  Line really shouldn't move at all.
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  Yet we've seen it tick up. So it's pretty clear here.
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  That this line is risen. Toward the over with a good bet
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  split low bets higher dollars to the over.
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  You look at the. Short spread, so line is.
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  Moving toward the dog. This is spread of just.
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  You know, now at this point, Jacksonville State. -3 and a.
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  Half so hopefully that means a competitive.
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  Game back and. Forth you get a little.
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  Bit of scoring in. Particular both of these.
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  Defenses are not very good. Jacksonville.
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  State is giving up 20. 9 point. Three points per game.
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  That ranks 92nd out of like 130 teams.
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  So you're at the bottom of the barrel.
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  Defensively and Middle Tennessee State.
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  Is also allowing 29 points per. Game that ranks. 88th.
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  So we got 2 porous. Defenses.
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  We have a short spread, we have low bets, higher dollars with
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  the total ticking up. We have a great weather.
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  Opportunity here in Middle Tennessee State.
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  It's about 50° partly. Cloudy, pretty much no wind at
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  all, around 5 mph winds the other angle.
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  Is Conference USA, Conference USA the other backbreaking thing
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  about that? Last night's game, which again,
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  I'll never I I I might remember that UTEP game.
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  Until the day I die. How?
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  How just? Terrible and sickening, that
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  was. But anyway, that total was, I
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  think it was. 52 1/2 and because Kennesaw State instead of taking
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  a knee. Decided to score that
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  meaningless touchdown that. Made it a 53.
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  Point total and cashed the. Over.
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  But also think about if you had the.
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  Under in that game and they go for a a meaningless instead of
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  kneeling at you score to kill your under.
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  So not only did it kill UTEP betters, it killed the under.
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  So again, poor one out for anyone had the the under in that
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  game. However.
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  You look at all these. Angles pointing toward the over.
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  Conference USA Totals. When two teams in conference.
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  USA play each other. The over is 9:00 and 6:00.
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  This year 60% so. Again, we have the total.
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  Ticking up, we got low bets, higher dollars to the over.
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  We got good weather, we got a short competitive spread.
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  We have two defenses. Who?
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  Are giving up nearly 30 points a game.
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  Conference USA overs have done very well 60.
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  Percent this year, and then a little.
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  Cherry on top and kind of the the last angle here that kind of
• 13:20
  pushed me to play this over. I opened up the juice.
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  Reel app and noticed a. 17% sharp.
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  Mush edge toward the over. So 17% more.
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  Of the sharper winning players. Are playing the over here.
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  So again to me. This is a play here.
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  Where all the signs are lighting up toward a hopefully a higher
• 13:37
  scoring game. I played the over 50. 4 1/2 and.
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  The way things are going. It'll be 3 nothing after the
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  first. Quarter, but again, I'll see if
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  we can. Break the seal.
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  Break the. Dam turn our luck around and get
• 13:49
  a high scoring game. How about?
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  A 30 to 20. Seven game, that'll be nice and
• 13:55
  maybe everyone with middle. Tennessee in the hook.
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  Would cash that as well, but I am going Jacksonville state,
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  Middle Tennessee state. Over. 54 1/2.
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  And I did get over. 54 1/2. At -1 O 8.
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  So again, shop. Around you can get.
• 14:07
  The best price here. But over. 54 1/2.
• 14:09
  At -1 O 8. That was at.
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  DraftKings, again, a lot of these other books are 54 1/2
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  -110 and ESPN BET and a couple others actually over 50. 4 1/2
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  minus. 1:15. So it's good that.
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  There's some continued liability toward the over, but dear gods,
• 14:26
  gambling gods, can you give us a winner here?
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  Because it is just. It's brutal out there right now,
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  but if you've been betting long enough.
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  You know what this happens. You just got to.
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  Stick with it. And and keep grinding.
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  Now, an eye toured the NFL slate for this weekend.
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  So kind of a A. Rare week here.
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  Where? There's a Thursday night game.
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  Only one Monday night. Game not a double Hatter.
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  And just a regular Sunday slate. With No 9 O clock or 9:00 AM
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  Eastern Time. London game so.
• 14:53
  Kind of just a classic. Board to hopefully take
• 14:56
  advantage of but. As I mentioned.
• 14:58
  Before I think. There are a couple things.
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  Going on like. I can tell you guys when I.
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  Really. Got into sports betting I.
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  Was first hired in 2011. As a customer service
• 15:08
  representative. Answering phones, replying to
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  emails, writing articles at Sports Insights.
• 15:13
  And that's when I really kind of learned about.
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  This whole data. Driven model and and tracking
• 15:17
  dogs and unders and just how to approach different sports.
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  And it was like. 2011 up until. Basically two years ago where it
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  was. Dogs and unders last.
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  Year, You had a really terrible year.
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  For contrarians, where public favorites.
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  Did very very. Well, in the NFL and again going
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  into. This year I'm like is.
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  That going to continue or not? Well, sadly.
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  It looks at like it. Is continuing and if you look
• 15:40
  at. There's a reason that.
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  Is going to make you puke as well.
• 15:44
  But a lot of these sports books where if you have like Robin
• 15:47
  Hood or you. Invest in them.
• 15:48
  A lot of their share prices are going.
• 15:50
  Down and a lot of. These.
• 15:52
  CEO's when they get. A quote from them.
• 15:54
  They say, yeah, big reason for our our decreased winnings is
• 15:59
  the fact that it's. Been the way.
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  They phrase it is is. Very funny they.
• 16:02
  Instead of saying like the. Public is killing us.
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  They say something like very friend friendly.
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  Results to our recreational. Betters or something like that.
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  Which basically means. Favorites.
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  And overs are killing it. So if you look at favorites this
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  year, favorites. Are now in the NFL Let.
• 16:19
  Me pull this up for. You they are.
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  Why can't I find this? 67 and 50.
• 16:25
  Four against the spread 55%. Again, that ad is just.
• 16:30
  Disgusting. If you're a dog, better, so do
• 16:32
  I. Want to keep banging my head
• 16:33
  against the wall playing dogs? Yeah, part of me wants to.
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  Stick with it because I. I always know that regression is
• 16:38
  is somewhere around the corner. But I saw this last year where I
• 16:42
  was. Waiting for aggression all year
• 16:43
  and it never happened. And it was just.
• 16:45
  Favorites, favorites favorites. So that being said, I did find 3
• 16:49
  favorites here. That are not very.
• 16:51
  Public that are pretty sharp. And they have good rhythm, you
• 16:55
  know, rot models. Recommendations or?
• 16:57
  Edges here we should say. So first one I want to talk
• 17:01
  about is a 1:00. Game coming up on Sunday.
• 17:03
  Chicago. Bears in the Cincinnati Bengals.
• 17:06
  Now look at this match up here. The Bears come in four and.
• 17:09
  Three on the year. Just fell.
• 17:10
  To the Ravens 30. To 16 last week.
• 17:14
  Didn't cover as a 2 1/2. Point Rd.
• 17:15
  Dog, you know, there we go, another favorite that covered.
• 17:18
  Bengals three and five came up short against The Jets, 3930. 8
• 17:21
  lost outright as a. 5 1/2 point. Home favorite that was actually.
• 17:25
  And this is ironic to. The one of the only dogs.
• 17:27
  Last week, only two dogs covered.
• 17:29
  One, of course, was The Jets winning out right.
• 17:31
  But anyway, bears Bengals this game open up basically a pick
• 17:34
  em. So again, you got to.
• 17:36
  Give about, you know, point and a half, two points for home
• 17:38
  field. Nowadays it's not 3 like it
• 17:40
  always used to be. That tells.
• 17:41
  Me if you open a pick them on a neutral.
• 17:43
  Site Chicago should be favored by a little bit here, but the
• 17:46
  public doesn't know what to do they're. 5050.
• 17:48
  They don't really believe in. You know the Bears have the
• 17:50
  better record. They don't, really.
• 17:51
  Believe in Caleb Williams. Cincinnati Bengals are at home,
• 17:54
  so right down the middle. 5050. Public doesn't know what to do,
• 17:57
  however. We've seen this line tick.
• 17:59
  Up towards Chicago. Chicago.
• 18:00
  'S gotten bet up. As a road, pick em.
• 18:02
  Now up to a minus. Three Rd. favorite Now I was
• 18:06
  doing some research. It looks like Joe Flacco could.
• 18:08
  Be banged up here so if he doesn't play, it's Browning.
• 18:11
  But again, in a vacuum. 5050 line shouldn't.
• 18:13
  Move at all. Yet we have seen this line.
• 18:15
  Tick up in. Favor of the Bears.
• 18:17
  So it tells. Me, we got smart money here
• 18:19
  going with. Chicago.
• 18:21
  Bears are only getting 50% of spread bets but 72% of spread
• 18:25
  dollars at DraftKings. So good low bets, higher dollar
• 18:28
  split. And again, there's a favorite,
• 18:30
  but they're not getting 7080% like I really don't.
• 18:32
  Want to be at the? Public, even though the public
• 18:34
  is crushing it right now, which is absolutely disgusting.
• 18:37
  But I can be with a. Sharp line move.
• 18:39
  On a favorite with favorites doing well.
• 18:41
  The other angle here. Is favorites off a loss?
• 18:45
  They've been really good this year.
• 18:46
  They're. 29 and 14 against the spread 67%.
• 18:49
  Chicago also is a non conference favorite.
• 18:51
  Lack of familiarity benefiting the better team.
• 18:54
  And also a favorite correlative. Betting system match so.
• 18:57
  Favorite high? Total total this one is 51 1/2
• 19:00
  that. Basically means.
• 19:01
  More expected point scored. Makes it harder or sorry.
• 19:04
  Easier. I should say for the.
• 19:06
  Short. Favorite to cover the number?
• 19:08
  You also look at. A money line.
• 19:10
  Play here so I money. Lined.
• 19:12
  The Chicago Bears I got. -150. Five.
• 19:14
  I think that was that. Maybe ESPN bet.
• 19:17
  Some books are as high as minus. 160 but again if they win.
• 19:19
  By three you push. Win by one or two you.
• 19:22
  Lose I want to protect. Myself, hopefully just have the
• 19:24
  Bears win straight up, but when you look at.
• 19:26
  Both teams. Coming off a loss, the favorite
• 19:28
  is 17 and five straight up 77% this year, 13% ROI.
• 19:34
  It's one O 8 and. 4670%. Straight up.
• 19:37
  With a 4%. ROI since 2023.
• 19:39
  And if you look at rhythm, rhythm is predicting bears. -2
• 19:43
  point. 7 so it's not an edge on the three.
• 19:46
  I have another. Angle here it says.
• 19:47
  Bears -3.1. But again, 2.7. 3.1 not an edge
• 19:51
  on the three. But a little bit of an edge
• 19:53
  there just to win the game straight up on the money line.
• 19:56
  So I'm going to hope. That the the bears here.
• 19:58
  Are a favorite who can win the damn game -155 I'm on Chicago.
• 20:03
  Next one for you. This one might make you.
• 20:05
  Throw up. It's really sharp.
• 20:07
  It's gross, but it is a favorite with a really good line.
• 20:09
  Move Denver Broncos, Houston Texans. 1:00 game on Sunday as
• 20:13
  well. Broncos come in six.
• 20:15
  And six and. Two on the year.
• 20:17
  Crush the Cowboys. 44 to 20. 4 Covered as a. 3 1/2 point home
• 20:21
  Favorite Texans Meanwhile, 3 and 4 Texans Believe it or not, they
• 20:25
  won three of their last. 4 just beat the 40.
• 20:27
  Niners. 26 to 15 covered the three.
• 20:30
  Point spread there at home as a favorite.
• 20:33
  Now this game open Broncos around a 1 1/2 point Rd.
• 20:37
  Favorite and the public says Broncos are way better.
• 20:39
  Lay the 1 1/2, however, even though you're getting 78% of
• 20:43
  spread bets. Laying the points here.
• 20:45
  With Denver. Denver's not up to -2 - 3.
• 20:48
  We've actually. Hopped the fence and gone.
• 20:50
  To Houston. -1 1/2. So why did this line?
• 20:53
  Flip to Houston if the public is all over Denver.
• 20:56
  Tells me you have a really sharp reverse line move, fade the
• 20:58
  trendy. Dog dog to fave line.
• 21:00
  Move. You look at the Texans.
• 21:02
  Only 22% of spread bets, but 48% of spread dollars at DraftKings
• 21:07
  at Circa, only 33% of spread bets, 41% of spread dollars.
• 21:12
  So again, you're getting a low. Bets higher.
• 21:13
  Dollars dog to fave split. Line move.
• 21:15
  In favor of the. Texans.
• 21:17
  I want Texans. Money line.
• 21:19
  It's a pretty cheap one. It's only -125.
• 21:22
  But I hate to see. Again, you open Denver. -1 1/2
• 21:24
  Now your Houston -1. And a half so.
• 21:26
  Oddsmakers are telling you it. Could be a close game.
• 21:28
  So I don't want to. You know, have Houston win.
• 21:31
  You know, 21 to 20. And I lose because I laid.
• 21:33
  A1 and. 1/2 so I did get -125 on the money line.
• 21:36
  I like the fact that. Texans only 20% of money line
• 21:39
  bets, but nearly 40% of money line dollars.
• 21:42
  Both teams coming off a win. Take the non division home.
• 21:45
  Favorite, that is. 73 and 24, straight up 75%.
• 21:50
  Eleven percent. ROI since 2022.
• 21:53
  You'll get home. Favorites in general this year?
• 21:55
  They are 53 and 21. Straight up 72 percent, 3% ROI
• 21:59
  if that home favorite. Also made the playoffs the
• 22:02
  previous year. Which would match with Houston.
• 22:05
  Those teams are 32 and 10. Straight up this year, 76% with
• 22:09
  a 6% ROI. So it looks like Denver better.
• 22:12
  Team they should easily win this game, but Publix on Denver and
• 22:15
  lot line flip. To Houston.
• 22:16
  So with these favorites. Just killing it and killing.
• 22:18
  Us up until now. You can be on a favorite here
• 22:21
  and also be against the public. And also and for thinking you
• 22:24
  know. Maybe a reason to back?
• 22:25
  Houston, they're at home, they're playing better.
• 22:27
  But I did notice that. Patrick certain is going to be
• 22:31
  out for this game, Marvin. Mims is out.
• 22:32
  I think you. Have a lot of injuries here on
• 22:34
  Denver and maybe the maybe the. Houston Texans are getting
• 22:37
  healthier. Christian, Kirk, Nico.
• 22:39
  Collins, some of these other guys, but give me Houston money
• 22:41
  line -125. Last bet for me.
• 22:45
  The granddaddy of them all. Maybe the AFC Championship
• 22:48
  preview? Unless my patriots.
• 22:50
  Find a way to get there. Kansas City Chiefs.
• 22:52
  Buffalo Bills 425. Eastern Time kick off on Sunday.
• 22:57
  Other than the Sunday night game, this will be your most
• 22:58
  heavily bet game of the week. Now chiefs come in five and
• 23:01
  three. Don't remind me.
• 23:03
  Crush the commanders 28 to 7. Covered as a 10.
• 23:06
  And a half point home favorite again, the bad.
• 23:08
  Beats. Remember, you had commanders
• 23:10
  tied at the half. They're seven to seven.
• 23:13
  Beat the closing line. Again, just add insult to
• 23:15
  injury. But anyway.
• 23:16
  Bills five and two just crush the Panthers. 40 to 9 covered as
• 23:19
  A7. Point Rd.
• 23:20
  Favorite. So what have you seen across the
• 23:22
  market here? Well this game open Chiefs
• 23:24
  listed around a one point Rd. Favorite SO.
• 23:26
  Very, very short number. Again, neutral site.
• 23:30
  Maybe they're -3 at home, maybe they are -4 -, 5.
• 23:36
  But anyway. Public doesn't know what to do.
• 23:38
  They're right down the middle. They know the Chiefs are kind of
• 23:40
  roaring. Back here, but then again, the
• 23:42
  Bills. Josh Allen at home as a dog.
• 23:45
  Hey, you got to take that right? So once again, kind of like that
• 23:48
  Chicago. Game public doesn't know what.
• 23:49
  To do, they're right down the middle. 5050.
• 23:52
  However, there's no injury here at least.
• 23:54
  That we know of so. Again, you had.
• 23:56
  Flacco banged up maybe? That's why the line shot.
• 23:58
  Up to the bears. This one here it's basically.
• 24:01
  5050 but it has moved up toward Kansas.
• 24:04
  City, Kansas City's gone. From -1 up to minus. 2 and I
• 24:08
  see. One book at 2 1/2 so. 5050 line
• 24:11
  shouldn't. Move at all.
• 24:11
  Yet we have seen this line creep up in favor of.
• 24:14
  The Chiefs. Tells me smart money on.
• 24:15
  Kansas City Chiefs only getting. 50% spread bets, but fifteen, 7%
• 24:20
  spread dollars at DraftKings at circa 83% of spread bets over
• 24:24
  90%. Of spread dollars so good low
• 24:27
  bets higher dollar. Split there in favor of.
• 24:29
  The Chiefs. I went once again.
• 24:32
  Money line with the Chiefs. I don't want him to.
• 24:33
  Win by 1. Or two, when I lose my bet.
• 24:35
  So I did get. Kansas City on the money line at
• 24:38
  -125. Some shops are as high as -130
• 24:42
  on the money line at. DraftKings.
• 24:43
  Chiefs 39% Bet 67%. Dollars Chiefs have some.
• 24:47
  Correlative betting short favorite in a high.
• 24:49
  Total game. 52 1/2. So short number, lot of points.
• 24:53
  Easier to cover if you're going spread.
• 24:56
  But then lastly, here's another little banger system with
• 24:58
  Patrick Mahomes. As a road favorite.
• 25:01
  He's 38 and 10 straight up. 79 percent, 11% ROI.
• 25:06
  So, Chiefs. Getting healthy Rashi Rice
• 25:07
  playing. Well, again, Buffalo's coming
• 25:10
  off a big win against the Panthers.
• 25:11
  But I think they just missed Ed Oliver.
• 25:13
  For the year, I know, Matt. Milano's been banged up.
• 25:16
  Josh. Palmer's been banged up.
• 25:18
  So hopefully this is a spot where Kansas City can win the
• 25:20
  damn game. So I am on the Chiefs money line
• 25:23
  at -125. South Texans Bears, Chiefs.
• 25:26
  All three money lines. So you can get.
• 25:28
  Two out of three. Eke out a winning Sunday.
• 25:31
  So that about does it for episode 384 of the All Systems
• 25:35
  Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 25:37
  This is the part of the pod where we wrap.
• 25:39
  Things up. I always start first by saying
• 25:41
  thank you. Thank you for taking the time
• 25:43
  out of your day. Thank you for.
• 25:44
  Listening. Thank you.
• 25:45
  For grinding with me. Thank you for sticking.
• 25:47
  With it. When things aren't going well.
• 25:49
  It's easy to tune into the. Pod we're handing out Winters
• 25:51
  left and right. You tune in, you're excited.
• 25:53
  To listen, but when things aren't going our way.
• 25:55
  When we're getting rolled like UTEP in the.
• 25:58
  Worst, most painful way? And you guys to?
• 26:00
  Keep tuning in and keep. Grinding, and you know that.
• 26:02
  Hey. There's going to be tough.
• 26:03
  Stretches tough patches. You just got to.
• 26:06
  Keep, keep grinding. That's what really means a lot
• 26:08
  to me. So thank you for listening.
• 26:10
  Through the good. And the bad because that's.
• 26:12
  Betting it's a roller coaster. But if you'd like to give this
• 26:15
  pod a 5 star. Review on Spotify or iTunes.
• 26:17
  Or click the follow button. Or leave a nice comment or
• 26:20
  recommend the pod to a friend. That'll be really cool.
• 26:22
  And I would very much appreciate that.
• 26:25
  Next. If you enjoy the insights.
• 26:28
  The breakdowns. This data-driven model has.
• 26:30
  Given you a blueprint. To attack the betting market.
• 26:33
  When you had no blueprint. Before and you've seen kind.
• 26:36
  Of the fruits of Labor. Other.
• 26:38
  Than you know, the last four or five days, you know.
• 26:40
  This has been a winning. Strategy if that's.
• 26:43
  The case and you want to learn more?
• 26:44
  About data-driven betting or you'd like to?
• 26:47
  Maybe teach a friend or. Show a friend or colleague the
• 26:49
  data-driven approach. I'd love for you to go to
• 26:51
  Amazon.com and type in the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook or the
• 26:56
  Everything guide to sports betting those.
• 26:57
  Are the two books. That I've written and you know
• 26:59
  what? I'm already thinking about my
• 27:00
  third book. I got an idea, but anyway if.
• 27:04
  You want to pick one up and bring it to the sports book?
• 27:06
  I would love to shake your hand. Buy a beer.
• 27:09
  And put my John Hancock on there in the in the front sleeve.
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  Next, have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Reel yet?
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  My two favorite. Sports betting apps, they help
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  me win. They're going to help you win.
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  Because they're all about. The data.
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  Driven approach. So rhythm.
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  Great for their AI backed. Models and predictions for game
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  bets. And player props as well as
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  Juice Reel. Or you can.
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  Sign up to get. The all systems go official.
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  Best bet picks for? $4.00 and. $0.99 a week.
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  As well as the sharp motion indicators, the arbitrage plays
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  the shop for the best. Line features.
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  All available when you download. Juice Reel so download.
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  Juice Reel download. Rhythm.
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  Give them a 5. Star Review in the app.
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  Store next. You have a live odds page if you
• 27:45
  don't. Have one, you need one.
• 27:47
  Because it gives you. So much great information first.
• 27:49
  Off you got to be. Able to track the market.
• 27:51
  What did the line? Open at?
• 27:52
  Where is it now? Which direction has it moved?
• 27:54
  Pull up the line history. Show all the moves in.
• 27:56
  Between. Identify Steam.
• 27:58
  When odds get lit up in red, you know they're moving.
• 28:00
  So if you want to take. Advantage you got to.
• 28:02
  Find a book that hasn't adjusted yet.
• 28:04
  And, of course, shopping. For the best number, finding the
• 28:06
  best price. All of all great variables.
• 28:09
  And features of odds logic. So if you need a live odds page,
• 28:13
  go to. Oddslogic.com/josh 123 and you
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  will get a 7 day free trial and 50% off your first.
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  Month of service also Novig. Novig is a betting exchange.
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  Not just a It's not a sports book, but it's a betting.
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  Exchange, which means you're not betting against the house,
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  you're betting against fellow bettors, so.
• 28:31
  You're not going to get. Limited when you win and you're
• 28:32
  going to get better. Juice prices because there's no.
• 28:35
  Sports book making you pay -1. 15 -, 120.
• 28:38
  Instead, you're paying minus one O 5 plus one O 5 -, 1 O 8.
• 28:41
  Plus one O 2. And because of that.
• 28:44
  You can win at the. Same rate, but you're actually
• 28:46
  going to make more money. At a betting exchange versus a
• 28:48
  sports book because, again, you're risking less.
• 28:50
  Juice, which means you win. You're getting.
• 28:53
  Bigger pay out there. In return.
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  So give Novig a shot. Download the Novig.
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  App and plug in Josh 123 and the promo.
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  Code for 100. Percent deposit match.
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  Up to 25 bucks. So that about does it guys, as
• 29:06
  always, whether I see you at the.
• 29:08
  Borgata in Atlantic City Twin. River in Rhode Island the.
• 29:10
  Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan.
• 29:12
  Sun down in Connecticut. The Encore in Boston plain Ridge
• 29:15
  park casino MGM Springfield or the Nash my neck of the woods.
• 29:19
  In Massachusetts on the. Border of New Hampshire or out
• 29:22
  in the desert. Where the true grinders get down
• 29:24
  Or Billy. Walter sends his number runners.
• 29:26
  Where the lowest? Use possible is found at the
• 29:28
  South point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
• 29:31
  stadium. Swimming pool when you cash a
• 29:33
  big. Ticket at Circa, wherever it may
• 29:35
  be. I don't know what we're.
• 29:37
  Going to do we're going to do like some stuff in Major League,
• 29:40
  some like some voodoo to, to change our, our luck here
• 29:44
  because it's just been it's just been horrendous.
• 29:46
  And again, I can tell you I've been betting on sports every day
• 29:49
  since I was. 21 I'm now 38 years old.
• 29:52
  Couple times a year this is going to happen couple.
• 29:55
  A few times a year you're going to be hot as a pistol, Couple
• 29:57
  times a year you're going to lose.
• 29:58
  And it's not just like you're losing close games for your
• 30:00
  battle. It's like.
• 30:01
  Losing in ways that. Make you want to literally.
• 30:03
  Tear your eyes out. And smash your head against the
• 30:06
  sledgehammer. But hey, that's betting.
• 30:08
  I don't know. I don't know why it's weird you
• 30:10
  can't quantify it, but you just got to just got to stick with it
• 30:14
  because it'll pass. I promise you that it'll pass
• 30:16
  and we'll get back to to. Stacking units.
• 30:19
  But as always, guys. After an O and three or three
• 30:22
  and OA one. And two A2 and.
• 30:23
  One good night, bad night. A.
• 30:25
  Cold stretch A hot stretch. Never.
• 30:27
  Get too high or too. Low and again I fully.
• 30:30
  Admit guys, it's. Been brutal here 2 and. 13 last
• 30:33
  15. O and 10 last 10. 10 bets lost
• 30:36
  them all. That is just embarrassing,
• 30:38
  pathetic, terrible. But I tell you what, guys, you
• 30:42
  got to stick with it. You.
• 30:43
  Just you. Can't.
• 30:43
  You can't give in. To doubling down, tripling down,
• 30:46
  or. Quitting.
• 30:47
  We're grinders. We're grinders with.
• 30:48
  Blinders, as an old friend of mine used to say.
• 30:51
  So let's see if we can turn our luck around and start with a
• 30:53
  baby step of a winner here tonight.
• 30:55
  Hopefully over 50. 4 1/2. Middle Tennessee and
• 30:58
  Jacksonville State. So as always guys.
• 31:01
  Let's stick to the model of the blueprint.
• 31:03
  Let's turn our luck around. We can find games that.
• 31:05
  Fit our model against the public with the house with the pros.
• 31:08
  Flat that avoid parlays and get that CLV if we can.
• 31:10
  Do that. I'm confident.
• 31:12
  We're going to bounce back and get back to our winning ways.
• 31:14
  So have. A great Wednesday night.
• 31:15
  Everybody we'll be back at. It tomorrow on a big.
• 31:17
  Thirsty Thursday for episode 385 of the All Systems Go Sports
• 31:22
  Betting podcast. Powered by rhythm.
• 31:24
  Good luck everybody and keep grinding.