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Episode 348 - 9/8/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 348 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:35
Happy Monday, a new week begins the second week in the month of
0:39
September. And boy, we just got through our
0:42
first official NFL Sunday and boy, do we post some winners
0:46
here, guys. So a lot to recap on today's
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podcast. I still can't get over.
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I had no action on the game, but I cannot get over that Bills and
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Ravens game. You saw a line move toward the
0:56
Baltimore Ravens. They open getting a point.
0:59
They closed laying a pointer point and 1/2 and man, what were
1:02
they up 15 late in the game? And of course Bills score and a
1:07
lot of people let or people left the stadium 1st and Josh Allen
1:10
kind of scolded them afterwards, said have some faith, stick
1:12
around. But Bills were down 15 late like
1:15
5 minutes left. They score, Derrick Henry
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fumbles, they score again, they walk it off on a field goal.
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Obviously if you had the over, that thing sailed over.
1:23
But man, what an incredible end to the NFL betting weekend.
1:27
But we got more to talk about for today, guys.
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So we do have for you a play on the final game of week one.
1:33
We got a Monday Night Football game.
1:34
Da bears and the Minnesota Vikings got some line movement.
1:38
We got some buyback. I got system matches.
1:40
I got a really good robo Jackson sharp mush edge from our friends
1:44
at juice reel that aligns with a rhythm system match.
1:47
So stay tuned. I got a best bet for you to
1:48
finish up the week hopefully a winner and what's been a pretty
1:51
good opening week for us on the bears in the Vikings game here
1:55
for tonight now over the weekend I want to give a couple shout
1:58
outs 1 thank you all for joining the survivor league that I
2:02
posted. I talked about this quite a bit
2:04
on the pod, but I've now teamed up with splash sports and I ran
2:08
my survivor league contest again pick one team got to keep
2:12
surviving and advancing. Anyone who had the Broncos is
2:15
one of mine. I actually took the Patriots
2:17
too, and obviously they let me down over the weekend, but still
2:20
live with the Broncos. And again, you could have up to
2:23
five entries, 25 bucks. I ended up direct messaging a
2:26
lot of you guys, just letting you know about it.
2:28
Last chance the league Survivor League has closed right now and
2:32
a lot of people are like, man, I couldn't get it in time.
2:34
Well, don't worry, I'm going to be doing a lot of contest moving
2:36
forward with Splash Sports. So there will be more that you
2:39
can take advantage of. But I'm thinking about, I got to
2:42
talk to my buddy James Santor, who is now working with Splash
2:46
Sports. But I'm thinking about maybe a
2:47
touchdown Survivor. Like each week you just got to
2:50
pick one guy who's going to score a touchdown.
2:52
So stay tuned. It was pretty good showing 171
2:55
entries into Survivor here. So thank you all for throwing
2:58
your hat in the ring. But I want to look back to kind
3:01
of a lot of games we talked about since Friday, guys, how
3:04
about a nice little three day stretch?
3:05
Friday, Saturday, Sunday, 7 and 3 + 2.72 units.
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If you remember, Friday, 2 and 1 + 0.67 units.
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The Chargers ended up winning that game out right in Brazil,
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which was fantastic. So even if you missed the hook
3:19
on the 3 1/2, didn't matter. They went out right, James
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Madison, the 4th president. I'm glad we waited to get the
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hook plus 14 1/2 because they lost by 14.
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So the importance of getting the hook and then also guys lost on
3:30
the Rays. I'll be honest with you, I might
3:33
be sitting out MLB until we get to the postseason because I just
3:36
think there's so much value in the NFL and college football
3:38
right now that I don't want to have situations where we have a
3:41
great football night pro in college and baseball is kind of
3:45
getting very erratic. A lot of variables, a lot of
3:47
weird things happening late in the season.
3:49
I don't want to. I want to maximize our edge.
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That's something a mentor of mine told me a long time ago.
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Maximize your edge. Yeah.
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You want to be great at all sports and have winning nights
3:57
across different sports. But our edge right now is in
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football, so I don't want to keep forcing baseball if the
4:03
place to be is football right now.
4:05
But Saturday, 3 and 1 + 1.19 units.
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Oklahoma fade the trendy dog public all over Michigan.
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But the line kept going. Oklahoma, they went out right on
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the money line. Even if you laid the points.
4:17
They covered Iowa, got to get the hook plus 3 1/2.
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They lost by three, covered the number and Baylor.
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That was probably my favorite game of the weekend because we
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had them +3. They closed 2 1/2.
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They were down late, scored a bunch of times, went to double
4:33
overtime and Baylor hung on to win it so that was great.
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Only loser was Virginia plus 3 1/2.
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They lost by 4 and that one annoyed me because there was a
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chance to kick a field goal, make it a one point game.
4:44
Idiot coach didn't do that. And then they had a chance to
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win the game late and they were at like the 10 yard line and
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stupid quarterback threw a pick with like no time left.
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So we're that close to a four and O.
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And then our first official NFL Sunday, 2 and 1 + 0.86 units.
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Couple great covers there with The Jets.
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Remember Jets had them plus 3 end up losing by two.
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They probably should have won the game.
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There's like a 65 yard kick by Boswell to end it.
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But luckily, Jets covered the number number sharp line Freeze
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public all over Steelers, but Jets stayed plus three, even
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touched 2 1/2 Good line Freeze play there.
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And remember, rhythm had a 15. So Jets came through and then
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boy, and a lot of people were like, you're really taking the
5:26
Browns. Yes I am Cleveland Brownies.
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Absolutely awesome cover by Cleveland.
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They lost the game by one point but we got 5 1/2.
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They closed at 4 1/2. A lot of shops to beat the
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closing line. Most heavily bet game of the
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heavily lopsided game I should say Cincinnati 80% of bets but
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line fell to Cleveland Divisional dog.
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Browns came through bigly. Only loser was the Giants.
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I really like that one. 6 1/2 they closed 6 but man they were
5:52
terrible. Couldn't get anything going and
5:54
didn't lost and didn't cover there.
5:56
But either way, guys, two and one Friday, 3:00 and 1:00
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Saturday, 2:00 and 1:00 Sunday. Let's see if this is hopefully a
6:02
start of a great football season.
6:04
Pro in college. So turning the page toward
6:07
today, guys, I only got one game for you.
6:10
Again, I could have forced a baseball play.
6:11
There is one game that really caught my eye.
6:14
But really all we got is baseball and NFL.
6:17
And I just want to focus on NFL because that's really where you
6:20
know, we're laser focused right now when we've had a good start
6:23
to the year. So only one play tonight, one
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pack, you know, maybe you only pick up a nip at the at the Paki
6:29
store or you got a bottle of something again, either way, but
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one play going to try to go 1 and O tonight.
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So with that being said, let's set the stage.
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Talk line movement system, matches, splits, juice reel as
6:42
well as rhythm edges here and they're all lining up on the
6:45
same side for me. So setting the stage for this
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one, obviously last game of week one, 8:15 PM Eastern Time.
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Vikings Bears primetime divisional match up here.
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So coming into the season, Vikings 14 and three last year
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had a great season but disappointing in the playoffs.
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Remember Sam Darnold turn into a pumpkin.
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They lost 27 to 9 to the Rams in the wild card round.
7:08
Their win total this year is 9 1/2.
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Maybe take a slight step back JJ McCarthy, more on him in a
7:13
second, but their win total is 9 1/2 juiced under -140 at
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DraftKings. Meanwhile, da Bears 5:00 and
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12:00 last year, missed the playoffs, but oddsmakers think
7:24
they'll be a better team this year.
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Their win total is 8 1/2. It is juiced under -145 So maybe
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they win seven or eight games, but you win 5 last year, seven
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or eight this year. That will be obviously an
7:34
improvement. So what are we seeing across the
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board for this one? Well, this one's interesting
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because if you go way, way back in the spring, back in May when
7:41
these lines first came out, the Chicago Bears were favored here.
7:45
Chicago Bears were -1 1/2 at home.
7:47
However, since that time, we've seen this line flip toward
7:50
Minnesota. Minnesota has gone from a 1 1/2
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point Rd. dog to a 1 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
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In fact, we saw this line at one point get up to Vikings -2 1/2.
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Now, the critical thing for me is that when this line got to 2
8:05
1/2, it didn't sail through. Get to three 3 1/2 and just keep
8:10
steaming toward Minnesota. 2 1/2 seemed to be the high watermark
8:13
because once it got to Vikings -2 1/2, we saw some really sharp
8:17
buyback on the Bears plus 2 1/2, dropping the line back down to 1
8:21
1/2 where it rests right now. Not only that, but a lot of
8:24
books are juicing up the Chicago plus 1 1/2 side to around -115
8:29
show some liability buyback on the DA Bears.
8:32
Who'd win in a fight, Deco or a hurricane?
8:34
You know, it's deca, but 1 1/2 juiced up some shops even down
8:38
to 1. So if you just look at open
8:41
current, you're probably like just a dead, you know, Minnesota
8:44
play. I must admit I love a dog to
8:46
fave line move, but this line opened up so early, long ago and
8:50
it's has flipped to Minnesota, but now it's starting to come
8:53
back towards Chicago and I want to make a comparison here guys.
8:56
Do you remember the TCU UNC game Bell checks first game that was
9:01
a dog to fave move toward TCU. But the key there with TCU is
9:04
that they went from plus 1 1/2 to like -3 1/2, and there was
9:08
number buyback. It just kept going toward TCU.
9:11
This is different because it's gone dog to fave toward
9:14
Minnesota, but hasn't kept going toward Minnesota.
9:16
It's coming back down toward Chicago.
9:19
That tells me there's liability on Chicago plus the points.
9:22
Yeah, Chicago, however, there. In addition, I should say let's
9:26
look at the bet splits right now at DraftKings, Bears 48% of
9:31
spread bets, 63% of spread dollars.
9:35
Circa Chicago, 56% of spread bets, 59% of spread dollars.
9:41
So the lines coming back toward da Bears, the Bears are getting
9:45
low bets, higher dollars at both DraftKings and Circa.
9:48
Now we start to layer in some system matches.
9:50
Week 1 divisional dogs, they're 34 and 20 against the spread, 63
9:55
percent, 21% ROI since 2016. Week one dogs who missed the
9:59
playoffs the previous year. Remember this was The Jets
10:02
match. Bears are in the same spot, 64
10:05
and 51 ATS, 56 percent, 8% ROI Week 1 inflated dogs getting at
10:11
least a full point off the opener.
10:13
Remember Bears were laying 1 1/2, now they're getting 1 1/2.
10:16
That would technically be a three-point move.
10:19
Inflated dog, but those teams are 39 and 25 ATS 61 percent,
10:24
17% ROI prime time dogs. They're three and O ATS so far
10:29
to start the year. Remember, we had Cowboys, we had
10:33
the Chargers, and I didn't play him, but it was a miracle.
10:37
But Josh Allen and the Bills plus 1 1/2 covered last night.
10:41
Primetime dogs, 144 and one, 2653%.
10:46
You're beating though the magic #52.38%.
10:49
It's a 2% ROI. Nothing crazy, but it's
10:51
profitable. Actually, if you go back a few
10:53
years ago, let me just dial this up because it was a couple years
10:56
ago where primetime dogs and primetime unders were just
10:59
absolutely insane. So let me just open up my
11:01
database just just for my own, my own memory.
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Here it was, let's see, 2022-2023 they were 32 and 22
11:12
ATS. In 2020 they were 30 and 18 ATS.
11:16
So primetime dogs typically good spot.
11:19
Alan Eck, little tiny thing here.
11:22
You may never heard of him. He is the lead ref tonight.
11:24
He's 55% ATS historically to the home team.
11:28
Now let's say you are wary of, you know, Bears plus 1 1/2.
11:32
Three number, key number here is a three.
11:35
You know, Chicago loses by three.
11:36
The 1 1/2 doesn't cover. This could be a great teaser
11:39
opportunity taking the Bears plus 1 1/2 up to plus 7 1/2.
11:43
Now the public, they just take their favorite dogs and tease
11:46
them up no matter what wise guys try to do the Wong teaser go
11:50
through multiple key numbers. So by taking Chicago 1 1/2 up to
11:54
7 1/2, you go through three, go through 7 most common margins of
11:57
victory. So that's an opportunity here.
11:59
Now, I'm not bold enough to take bears on the money line, but I
12:04
did notice at DraftKings only 43% of bets, 64% of dollars are
12:09
on the on the Bears money line. So Long story short, guys, I'm
12:14
going da Bears plus 1 1/2. I'm hoping we see the sign get
12:17
down to 1 closer to kickoff here if we can add a few cherries on
12:21
top. I noticed that when I popped
12:23
open rhythm. Rhythm has bears plus 0.7.
12:28
So basically pick them type game.
12:29
We're getting 1 1/2. Rhythm is saying it should be a,
12:32
you know, half point game basically pretty good edge.
12:35
I popped open juice reel. Juice reel has a 12% sharp mush
12:40
edge on the Chicago Bears. And also, if you go to the Robo
12:43
Jackson, the official best bets, that Juice Reel puts out a pair
12:47
of bets each day. They come out at noon.
12:49
One of the two today is on the Bears.
12:52
Lastly, I don't want to put a ton into this because I'm it's a
12:55
little bit of commentary, but JJ McCarthy, he's making his first
12:59
NFL start. He hasn't played in over a year
13:01
coming off an injury. He's a rookie.
13:04
Your first start ever is a divisional game when you're
13:06
expected to win on the road prime time.
13:09
That seems like a tough spot as good as McCarthy maybe, you
13:13
know, the jury's out. Obviously he hasn't played yet.
13:15
But it reminds me a little bit little bit little bit of Arch
13:18
Manning where a big, you know, well known guy.
13:21
I guess Arch Manning may be more well known than McCarthy.
13:24
You know, you could debate that. But basically a rookie making
13:28
kind of his first big start. And you're like, I guess in that
13:31
case, Ohio State was like -1 1/2.
13:33
But you kind of get the point. I just think it's a lot of
13:35
pressure on an unproven, you know, quarterback here in that
13:39
spot. So you add it all up here, guys.
13:42
Da bears, that's my play. I got bears plus 1 1/2 now.
13:45
Shop around because if you look at the current prices right now,
13:49
if you want to play the bears with me, you are starting to see
13:51
this buyback toward Chicago. I'm looking right now.
13:55
I got plus 1 1/2 at -1 O 8 reduced, kind of a reduced juice
13:59
price. That was at FanDuel.
14:01
A lot of books are 1 1/2 though, plus 1 1/2 -, 115 and again,
14:05
some books at 1:00. So I always try to find the
14:08
lowest possible juice you can because when you bet Tris first
14:11
bet to win, you're going to get a bigger payout based on the
14:14
less less amount of juice you have to pay.
14:16
So Long story short, guys, line move toward Minnesota, but it's
14:20
coming back toward da bears. We have late sharp buyback on
14:24
Chicago. We got low bets, higher dollars.
14:26
I got a ton of system matches. We got juice reel and rhythm
14:29
with us. Now let's see if da bears, I
14:32
mean, we'd like them to win the game outright, but can they lose
14:34
by one? Obviously to me it's that's
14:37
worth going plus 1 1/2 versus money line.
14:40
That's my play. Da Bears plus 1 1/2.
14:44
Now, as I said, to start off the show, I could have given you a
14:46
baseball play. Obviously there's, you know, 11
14:50
games here, but we've been having a really good baseball
14:52
year. And I just feel like recently
14:54
there's been way more like upsets and unpredictability.
14:57
And sometimes you see that later in the season when you know the
15:00
playoff teams are clearly the the good teams, the bad teams
15:03
are kind of giving up. You're bringing up young kids.
15:06
I just feel like there's volatility in baseball.
15:08
So I'm going to dial back MLB. Maybe we'll delve back into if
15:11
we see something that pops. There is a WNBA game today.
15:15
Didn't have anything on that. And obviously no college up
15:18
until Thursday. So it's a one and done.
15:20
Let's see if we can keep our hot streak going.
15:22
The NFL one play guys da bears plus 1 1/2.
15:28
So that about does it for episode 348.
15:30
Little short and sweet on a Monday because like me, you
15:33
might be exhausted over the weekend.
15:35
Actually, I had to wake up early and go to my niece's like
15:39
orientation at her school. If you got to, if you volunteer
15:43
for stuff and like me and my wife are going to volunteer for
15:45
our niece, my sister in law's kid.
15:48
She's awesome lover. But we had to show up at like
15:50
8:00 AM and go through this like background check and CPR and all
15:54
these things. So I'm kind of exhausted from
15:56
sweating over the weekend and a little tired here today as well.
15:59
But just again, one play for you with DA bears.
16:02
So let's see if we can go one and all that is the goal.
16:05
But as always, guys, wrapping it up, I always want to start first
16:07
by saying thank you. Thank you for joining Survivor,
16:10
by the way, Really much appreciate that, guys.
16:12
Hope hope one of you're listening here ends up winning.
16:15
But anyway, guys, if you do enjoy the pod, if you value the
16:18
insights, if you feel like you're a sharper better by
16:20
listening to the pod, hopefully, I've hopefully guided you in the
16:24
right direction here as a data-driven better betting based
16:26
on numbers, not not teams and favoritism.
16:30
But if you'd like to let me know you appreciate the pod, please
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could you give it a five star review on Spotify or iTunes?
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If you'd like to leave a nice comment under the review section
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or click the follow button or recommend the pod to a friend or
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retweet the pod when I tweet it out at Josh under score insights
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hey, give it a follow if you don't mind.
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But I very much appreciate any of that support.
16:59
Next, if you enjoy this style of betting, data-driven, sharp
17:03
contrarian betting focusing on line movement, system matches,
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bet splits, what rhythm in Juice Reel our friends are telling us
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based on their AI models. If the style betting has
17:12
appealed to you, maybe never in your wildest dreams would you
17:15
have taken The Jets or the Browns, but now you kind of see
17:17
the method to the madness. Well, if you want to learn more
17:19
about data-driven betting, please go to Amazon.com, type in
17:23
the NFL sharp betting playbook or type in the everything guide
17:27
to sports betting. Pick up one or both.
17:29
Those are my two books. I'm very proud of them,
17:31
especially the NFL sharp betting playbook.
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Football's in full swing. Pick up the NFL sharp betting
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playbook. Send me a tweet, I'll retweet it
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if you want to give it a five star review and nice comment on
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Amazon.com. I'd very much love that.
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And of course, bring both books, one or both to the sports book.
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I'll sign them for you. Buy a beer or ginger ale and
17:50
we'll sweat da bears tonight. Next.
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Have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice real yet?
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Remember they had Jets 1 1/2. We got 2 1/2 three, so value
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As soon as I bet something it goes right to juice reel.
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You can tell Faye do what you like.
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I think it's a better way to win and again, betting against other
21:04
batters and not the house. So that about does it guys.
21:07
As always, two final thoughts, whether I see you at the Borgata
21:10
and Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
21:13
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in Connecticut, the
21:15
Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park Casino, MGM Springfield,
21:19
the Nash in New England. Where I'm at, we're out in the
21:22
desert where the true grinders get down or Billy Walter sends
21:24
his number runners where the lowest choose possible is found
21:27
at the South Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
21:29
plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
21:31
When you catch a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
21:34
you're going to walk up to me and man, nice little run, run.
21:37
Let's keep it going. Show me a Chargers ticket, James
21:39
Madison ticket, Oklahoma, Iowa, Baylor, Jets, Browns.
21:45
First one's on me, next one's on you will sweat da Bears tonight,
21:49
which I'm very much looking forward to.
21:50
I'm nervous, but it's a good sign.
21:52
If you're nervous, you should never be cocky going into a pic.
21:54
You should be cautiously optimistic, cautiously nervous
21:58
at a baseball coach in high school.
21:59
I loved him, coach Messina and he would always say, are you
22:03
guys nervous before a game? And everyone was you just didn't
22:05
want to admit it. And he'd say that's a good
22:07
thing. If you're nervous, it means that
22:09
it means something to you. You care deeply about it and
22:12
you're not taking it for granted.
22:13
So I'm always I'm always nervous before going into a bet.
22:16
But anyway, guys, as always, whether we're coming off A7 and
22:20
3A3 and seven, man, I got to do the math here.
22:23
A6 and 4A5 and 5A4 and 6A3 and 7A2 and 8A1 and nine and O and
22:31
10A10 and O again, high, low, good, bad, hot, cold.
22:35
We just got to stay the course. Whenever as good as we think
22:38
when we're hot, whenever as bad as we as we think when we're
22:40
cold, we're going to stay the course.
22:41
Think long term. Keep making data-driven bets
22:44
only on the games that fit our model, bypassing the ones that
22:47
don't. And it goes a little something
22:49
like this. Games that are against the
22:50
public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays
22:54
and get that closing line value. If we can do that, we're going
22:57
to be successful sports betters. So have a great Monday night,
23:00
everybody, and get ready because tomorrow I'm going to have early
23:03
college football games for you, early NFL games for you.
23:06
But let's finish up the week strong.
23:07
Hopefully get a win and cover with da Bears, but good luck
23:11
everybody. I will see you tomorrow.
23:13
Tuesday's episode 349 of the All Systems Go sports betting
23:17
podcast powered as always by rhythm.
23:20
Good luck everybody, and go coach Deck.