Latest / Toadstool Sports / Wednesday BEST BETS | Spraying It | MLB & WNBA | 7/29/26

Transcript

Wednesday BEST BETS | Spraying It | MLB & WNBA | 7/29/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: In your chicks. Black coffee on the felt. Man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: this man. But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Your name still mean something on somebody for show?
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Put the glass down, baby, look at me. No, hold on,
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: hold on nothing.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Nice not now.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: Hold on.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Hoad on me for that by.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: But it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: And stay with me. Now, what's up everybody? It's towed
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: back with you with toadstool sports for what day is it?
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: I don't remember. Wednesday, July twenty ninth. Don't listen to me, man,
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: just I don't know what to tell you. Shane Bieber,
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, he goes from having a really good efficient
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: star with no walks to literally walking six guys and
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: not making it out of the first inning yesterday. That's
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: almost impossible. Like I don't even know if any picture
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: has ever done that before. Six walks in the first
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: inning and you only get two guys out, like the
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: whole thing was dead in the first inning, just because
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: of that, like what, I don't know, what else do
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: you want me to say? And then the other game
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: was bullshit. Connecticut missed by one and a half points.
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: They almost came back. They were down double digits late
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: in the game, and they almost got within the points
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: read to cover there. And if you look at what
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: happened in that game, the free throw disparity was absolutely ridiculous.
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: In that game, it was probably double the amount of
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: free throws on the side of Washington, and they hit
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: like ninety something percent of their free throws and Connecticut
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: literally missed half of their free throws. That was the
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: entire difference in the game. What do you want me
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: to do that one again? I think my read on
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: the WNBA has been pretty good. Like I think I
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: don't have that many legitimate losses in the WNBA, and
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: I don't think that one was either. You know, I
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: take a look at the box score and I tried
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: to determine should I have actually won this bet or
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: shouldn't I I think that one probably should have been
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: a winner, even though it wasn't really that close or
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: anything on the scoreboard. The whole game was just screwed
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: because of the free throw dis verity, So I don't
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: know what do you want them to say about it.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: Connecticut had more field goal attempts in the game, probably
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: by double digits. And if you have a double digit
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: edge and field goal attempts in the game, you're not
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: gonna lose. You're not gonna fail to cover as an
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: underdog that often man, especially in a game that's supposed
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: to be more of a defensive battle. Whatever. Owing to
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: two on the show yesterday, we have to move on
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: to today. I'm not gonna do anything with the WNBA today.
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: I don't It's two games. I don't like them. The
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: baseball board is giving me. I don't know what I
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: think about that. I'm gonna give up four baseball plays here.
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: I feel like maybe we're just going on til here
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: and just throwing money at everything at the board. But
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: maybe I'm showing some restraint because I feel like there
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: are a couple other games that I could have had
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: it in my car that I'm not going to and
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: I don't know. We'll see how it goes. I guess
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: I'll tell you what those games are. I have nothing
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: else to really talk about here. A dirty sock. What's up? McAdoo?
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: What's up, Joe Ryan. I will not be giving out
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: a play on that game today, but yeah, I mean
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: I will talk about it though. All right, it's we
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: have a lot of afternoon baseball. Three of my four
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: plays today are gonna be afternoon games. One of them
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: is literally the first game here. There is gonna be
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: a double header somewhere in here as well between Atlanta
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: and the Mets, which I think got rained out yesterday,
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: so I'm gonna talk about that too. But first game
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: up at twelve ten at pm Eastern. We're gonna start
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: right out with having some money on this Philadelphia Miami
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: game here and this one I'm going with the public,
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: but I think this is the right move here. We're
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: gonna take Philadelphia in the first five. I mean, Philadelphia
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: is on the version of getting swept here. I know
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia is not as good as their record looks. I've
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: been saying that, but they have one of their good
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: pitchers on the mound here, Lozardo, And I've been telling
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: you that Phillies record is really good. With Sanchez Wheeler
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: or Lozard or on the mount. Philadelphia wins the majority
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: of those games, and I think they have a huge
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: starting pitching mismatch here in this game, and they're trying
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: to avoid the sweep. So to me, it seems like
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: they're gonna be the better team and a motivated spot
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: here with the way better starting pitcher. I just think
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: we have to do this. I'm laying the half run
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: in the first five here, which if you want to
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: lay the full game run line, I guess you could
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: do that too. Either way, you're gonna get the maximum
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: amount of innings from Philadelphia's offense here because they're on
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: the road. But I don't love Phillies bullpen still, so
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna just avoid them here. But it is kind
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: of ridiculous that Miami has won both games here and
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: now in game one of the series, we know they
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: beat Zach Wheeler. Wheeler, I'm pretty sure he sick and
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: he exited the game. There was something going on in
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: that game, and Philly still almost won that game, but whatever,
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: that's That game was kind of a weird game, and
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: I think we would just throw out. And then what
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: I said was that after Miami broke their losing streak,
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: I thought they would be in a better spot yesterday
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: to continue that momentum. And of course they were going
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: up against Aaron Nola, who is not a good pitcher,
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: but the pitching was actually really good on both sides. Yesterday, somehow,
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: uh and Miami wound up winning one to nothing. Very
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: very strange, but Miami's only won each one of these games.
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: I won run Now, I don't think Miami is that
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: good of a team either, right, Like I know I've
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: been saying that Philadelphia is overrated, like they're not as
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: good as their record. Miami's probably not as bad as
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: their losing streak made them look, but we're still we're
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: looking at a team that's barely positive and run deff
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: and I know Philadelphia is still negative, but this, to me,
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: I still think Philly is the better team in this matchup.
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: Though they're gonna be motivated, they're trying to avoid the sweep.
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: I don't really know that Miami's gonna look ahead they
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: play the Mets next. I mean, ideally for Miami, I
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: think they would want to sweep the series, but I
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: think Philly is going to be more motivated to avoid
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: the sweep. As far as the bullpen's yesterday, Miami, they
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: used only two guys out of the bullpen, so that's
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: part of the reason I'm avoiding the bullpen is because
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: Miami is still the better bullpen and the rested Philadelphia
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: somewhat rested too. They only use three and Miami did
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: I think use their closer yesterday. I don't even know
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: who they're using as a closer, but yeah, Miami is
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: ranked fifth and bullpen here in Whip, although the ERA
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: is close to four, so they're maybe not quite that good.
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: But I don't want Phillies bullpen. They're twentieth. They're worse
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: than both the ERA and WHIP, so I will focus
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: on just the starting pitching here. Miami has had the
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: better offense. They're ranked eighth, Philly is twenty third, and
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: this is more of a pitcher friendly stadium. Though I
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: know Philly doesn't hit as well on the road, but
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: I expect Philly to get some runs here and I
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: expect Miami to be held in check by Jesus Lozardo.
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: We're gonna back him here at Lozardo. I mean, he's
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: had a good season overall, even when his numbers didn't
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: really look that good. It was kind of misleading, just
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: based on the fact that, like the vast majority of
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: the guys that reach base against him were scoring, which
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: is a bit of an outlier. He was getting a
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: little bit unlucky. But he's got a three point three
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: to one ERA one point one seven whip that's all
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: really good at this point. He's been especially good on
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: the road one point three to eight roady ARA, which
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: is still four runs better than his ERA is at home,
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: so his home road splits are still very significant. He's
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: been way better on the road, where he's somehow only
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: allowed one home run, and he's allowed ten at home
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: in fewer innings. But Luzardo, either way, he looks like
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: he's in really good form right now. He's put together
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: two good starts after his All Star appearance. He's been
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: pretty good. I mean he's been really good for this
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: entire month of July. He just pitched really well against
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: the Yankees. He got no run support and they lost
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: that game, but it wasn't his fault and Philly has
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: won as other Three Star arts this month. I like
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: Luzardo here. Man in Miami has not done well against
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: him in the past and eighty nine at bats, twenty
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: seven strikeouts, three walks. That is a really crazy strikeout
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: ratio that he has against them two thirteen average five
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: fifty four ohps. So we have Lozardo who's basically dominant
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: on the road. He's just a good pitcher in general,
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: and he pretty much dominates Miami. So yeah, we're gonna
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: back him, and we're gonna fade Ryan Gusto here, who
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: might not even make it to the fifth inning. I
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: think what I would say, though, is if you're gonna
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: play this game, I would say, probably just play it.
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: If your book allows you to pick Lozardo must start,
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: but don't pick a starter on Miami side, because I
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: think it will be Gusto, but they might put an
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: opener in front of him. You know, Miami does all
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: these weird bullpend things. So I don't think it's guaranteed
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: that Gusto will start this game, but I think he
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: will be heavily involved in the game regardless. And I
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: know Gusto. His numbers don't look too bad four point five,
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: one point three to two whip and he's been good
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: at home two point seven home here race, so he
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: is significantly better at home. I still wouldn't really trust him, though,
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, he doesn't go deep into games. As you
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: can see here. He hasn't even gone more than three
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: and a third innings for this entire month. Goes back
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: to last month. He hasn't gone five innings at all
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: this entire season. So, like I said, it's if he
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: starts the game, he's probably gonna be out of the
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: game by the fourth inning or so. And if he
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: doesn't start, then whatever, he'll be in there in the
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: middle of the game. And I'm still okay with going
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: the first five here. Gusto has not been good against
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: Philly either. In twenty three at bats three forty eight average,
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: one thy, seventy five ops, one strikeout, three walks. None
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: of these numbers are good. It's a small sample, but
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: most of their hitters have faced him before. I mean,
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna overthink this one. I think the money
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: is agreeing with me, even though Philadelphia is the public
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: side here. I think we get the way better starting pitcher,
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: and we get the advantage in the situation as well.
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: So we're gonna take Philly in the first five. Laying
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: the half run I found it at DK at minus
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: one fifteen, so most of the books look like they
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: were around minus one twenty though or minus one twenty five,
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: which that would still be my recommendation because the money
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: line is just gonna be way too high. They're minus
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: one seventy in the full game, and they're like minus
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: one to eighty something in the first five. I think, so, yeah,
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: get the price down, lay the half run. They need
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: to be winning at the end of five, but I
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: think it's pretty likely they will be. Yes, we're joining
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: the public eighty six percent of tickets on Philly, but
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: ninety four percent of the cash also on Philly. Here
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: it looks like I think the money is also on
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: that side, and the money line hasn't moved really, which
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: does worry me because when all that money's coming in
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: on one side and the line doesn't move, the odds
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: makers are just okay with taking all that money. But
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: I'm relying on the way that I handicap man. I
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: think this is the right side. The money is also
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: coming in on the over. The total is low, it's
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: seven and a half. I don't have a great feel
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: for the total. Hero although the odds makers are telling
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: you to expect a lower scoring game, which is not
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: great when you want a favorite to cover. Here, but
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: they only need to be winning by one run at
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: the end of five, and given what the matchup is
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: that I just showed you, I think it's likely to happen,
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: and the money is at least coming in on the over,
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: so at least there is some play saying that, yeah,
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: maybe that line's a little bit too low on the total.
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: So whatever, Jeffrey, what's up, man? Era? I don't think
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: Erot is actually good. I Savage is good, although he's
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: out of control, and yes, school ball is obviously elite. Yes,
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: I will not have a play in any of those
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: three games. Garrett, what's up? You're down past week? I've
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: been up, man. Yesterday was bad, but I was on
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: a ten and two run since last Wednesday before yesterday,
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: So all right, Second game up is yeah, Arizona and Pittsburgh. Here.
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: These teams have split the series so far, with each
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: team winning one game. Yesterday's game was actually completely insane
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: if you didn't see it. I believe Arizona was winning
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: six to nothing in the eighth inning and they blew
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: the entire thing and then still wound up winning the
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: game in twelve innings. So what we're going to be
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: looking at today is a situation where the bullpens are
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: very used so I would not want to back either
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: bullpen off that extra inning gamel. I think both teams
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: are going to show up and try to win this thing.
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: But yeah, Arizona, they used a bunch of guys. Their
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: bullpen was bad yesterday to blowing that huge lead. They're
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: a bullpen that I've said I don't really love them,
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: and I think that's kind of coming to fruition here
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: right now. They use six guys out of the bullpen.
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is probably still the worst of the two bullpen zone.
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: They used five guys or whatever. This is as well,
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: not the Burgers, but I would not trust either bullpen
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: at all here. Arizona, I know there's still ranked sixth
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: in WHIP, but their ERA is well above four now
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: after yesterday. I don't trust them. Pittsburgh even worse. They
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: are twenty fourth with a mid foros era. Not trusting
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: either bullpen here. Pittsburgh has been a good offense, obviously,
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: they're third in offense and they're number one in offense
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: at home. Arizona has moved up a little bit offensively.
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: They've been better recently their twentieth but these these pitchers
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: in this game could hold the offense and check a
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: little bit. Eduardo Rodriguez has Jeffrey mentioned is pitching for Arizona.
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's as good as ZRay looks two
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: point six y four. His whip is one point twenty four,
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: which is kind of mediocre. The advanced analytics guys are
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: all just waiting for this guy to completely unravel, because
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you look at what his career has
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: looked like, he was good for a while, but he
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: was always kind of walk heavy, like his whip was
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: always way too like. His whip was always too high
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: even when he was like good, like when he won
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: the World Series at the Red Sox whatever, and then
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: he had issues with his arm Tommy John surgery, and
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: since then you can see what his numbers have looked
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: like since then. I mean, his ERA was above five
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: the last two years with Arizona. So I don't think
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: what he's doing this season and is actually legitimate, even
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: though he's continued to do that. Yeah, I mean, and
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: we know that his velocity has been like way down
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: from what it was in the past because because of
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: his injuries and whatever. Although yes, he is pitching effectively
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: this season, he's not been that great this month, although
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: it was because of kind of one bad start in
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: here against Saint Louis coming out of pitching in the
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: All Star Games, so maybe that threw him off a
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: little bit. His overall numbers here, though, I mean his
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: hit rate is reasonably low. I mean it is low
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: for sure, but his walk rate is kind of mediocre.
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: Strikeout rate those way down, like I said, so he's
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: not fooling guys anymore. However, he does pitch well against
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh fifty three at bats, one seventy average, six twenty
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: four ohps allowed, so he might actually match up okay here.
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: I think he's the lesser of the two pitchers here though,
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: because I like Jared Jones. He's pitching for the Pirates.
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: He's come back from injury, but he's really starting to
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: pitch well again recently and looked like he did two
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: years ago when he was on Pittsburgh. I think he's legit,
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: and I think his ceiling is way higher than Rodriguez
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: is right now, because Jones is way younger and more
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: capable of overcoming this injury and the fact that he
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: missed all of last year three point seven to two
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: ERA for him one point oh two whip. He's a
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: little bit worse at home three point nine to six
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: homi Ra, but his opponent of batting average at home
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: is a very low one seventy eight. He's been excellent
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: this month. He's only allowed seven hits in twenty one innings,
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: four walks, twenty eight strikeouts. Yeah, he's completely back and
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: form right now. He's allowed one or fewer run in
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: every one of these outings this month. Uh, He's going
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: up against Arizona here. They don't have much experience against him.
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: Only two of their hitters have faced him. They're one
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: for four. The only hit as a single from Kepler,
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: who also has the one walk against him. They don't
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: have a strikeout against him. But Jones looks like he
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: should pitch well here. Now. I don't love e Rod here,
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: but I you saw his matchup numbers, I think the
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: way to play this, I guess he's probably the first
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: five under. I mean, I don't like either bullpen at all,
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: so I would say you can't do anything with the bullpens.
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: Here totals at eight and a half, but I think
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: a first five under you might be able to get
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: there with that if both starting pitchers can hold up here,
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: and they might be able to I would still worry
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: about that, though I worry more about e Rod than Jones. Here.
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: The money looks like it kind of disagrees to sixty
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: three percent of tickets fifty seven percent of the cash
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: on the under, So the money looks like it's indicating
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: on the over. But why would the public come in
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: on an under in this game. I don't see them
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: doing that, So I don't know what to make of
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: these percentages here. Pittsburgh is also a favorite, and the
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: line hasn't really moved much. They're in the minus one thirties.
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: I would I would probably be leaning towards Pittsburgh in
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: the first five here as well. The money's back in
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: Arizona fifty eight percent of tickets, seventy four percent of
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: the cash on them. I think Jones, like I said,
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: I think he's the more legitimate of these two starters
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: at this point, so I would be leaning towards him
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: in the first five here, But that's not a strong
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: opinion for me at all. By the way, I did
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: forget to go over the overview for the other two
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: pitchers that I talked about in the first game. Jesu's Lozardo,
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: just to get it out there. He's got a low
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: hit rate, pretty low walk rate at this point too,
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: in a really high strikeout rate, and he's induced a
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: lot of ground balls too. So Lozardo, I like what
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: his numbers look like across the board. Whereas for Gusto,
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: you know, I don't really love what we have going
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: on here. Very mediocre one hit per inning, His walk
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: rate is just okay, strike out rate is okay, you
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: know whatever. But he's not good. So do what you
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: want with all of that. Yes, Cam Schlitzer is pitching,
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: which I don't love at all because that means the
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: Yankees are gonna win again. Chris Sale correct, he was
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: supposed to pitch yesterday, I believe. So he's pitching one
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: of the games today, all right, Toronto and Washington. On
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: the surface, this looks like a huge pitching mismatch between you,
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: Savage and Latetel, And I will put it out there
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: that Washington they use an opener in front of Latel
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: a lot, so I think they might be doing that
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: again here. So if you're gonna play this game, I
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: would pick you Savage must start for Toronto, but do
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: not pick a Washington starter, because I think it's fairly
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: likely they're gonna have an opener pitch and then it's
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: gonna be lttel after that. So that's what I will say.
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: If you're gonna play this game, I would not pick
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: Washington starter. When you do it, these teems to split
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: the series so far. Washington won the game yesterday. Shane
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: Bieber was absolutely awful. I don't know what happened in
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: his command yesterday. He only gave up one hit, but
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: he walked six guys. I mean, what are you doing, man?
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: What are you doing? Anyway? Washington is the worst of
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: the two bullpens these three guys out of the bullpen yesterday,
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: Toronto used more than that. Toronto used four. But I
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: think Toronto's is the more preferable bullpen here. Washington just
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: isn't good. They're twenty six, Toronto is thirteenth. Toronto will
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: have a slight bullpen edge here. Washington has a huge
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: offensive edge. They're number one and Toronto is number twenty
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: nine out of thirty. But again, I like I said,
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: I think Toronto has the better starter, which is Trey
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: Savage here three point nine two ERA one point one
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: to eight Whip he's better on the road as well.
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: Three point six Rodi Ray. He's been pretty much unhittable.
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: But his problem is he has a really high walk rate.
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: He's got to fix that, and he's not totally a
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: good form right now because of the walks. Like he's
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: pitching inefficiently right now, not going deep into these outings.
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: Toronto's lost his last four starts. They've lost every start
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: that he's made in July. That's not a great sign.
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: He's given up three or more runs than three of
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: the four faced some kind of weak offenses in here too.
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: He's not in the greatest of form right now. Man.
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate remains really high, but he's also putting
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: a lot of guys on base via the walk. He's
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: got a really low hit rate. Like I said, he's
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: very difficult to hit, but he's wild as hell. He's
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: got to fix that. He's still really young, he's only
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: twenty three, but yeah, that walk rate's got to go down,
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: and his strike out rate is pretty good. So yeah,
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: he's a very talented pitch, but with a bunch of
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: command issues right now. By the way, happy birthday to
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: mister your savage. Yes, because I was like he's twenty two.
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: I thought, well, yeah, yesterday was his birthday, so there
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: you go. Uh maybe that is that going to be
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: a distraction the birthday spot or is he gonna pitch
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: better here? I don't know. Washington's never seen him, by
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: the way, so that is an advantage gas Savage. Having
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: the unfamiliarity advantage over Washington should help him a little bit.
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: But this is a difficult lineup to go up against. Man.
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: They're a good offense, even though they started trading away
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: some of their hitters. Zach Lttel will get probably the
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: majority of the work for Washington or though, like I said,
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: I think he might come in behind an opener here.
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: But Lttel is not very good. Five point one seventy array,
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: one point three four whip for Washington here five point
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: oh seven Homy Ray. He's not really good either way
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: home or away, it doesn't matter. He was pretty good
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: in his last outing here at home against Arizona, and
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: he was actually he's actually been pretty good in three
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: of his four outings this month. Of the Washington's lost
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: all of them. He had one really bad outing in there,
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: but it was at the A Stadium, so you know,
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: if you go back over the past basically the past month,
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: you could argue Ltel is actually pitching a little bit
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: better here. He still has a hit rate that's above
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: one per inning, which is not good. His walk rate
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: is okay, strike out rate is very low. He doesn't
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: really walk a bunch of guys, but he doesn't strike
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: guys out. He los a lot of hits, He los
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: a lot of home runs. His home run rate is
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: really high, and that's definitely hurting him as well. Lattel
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: against the Blue Jays has not been good. In sixty
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: six at bats three eighteen average nine to eighty one OPS,
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: seven to six strike out walk ratio. Those are bad numbers.
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I think if I was gonna play this game, yeah,
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: I would back you Savage over Lttel. I would probably
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: just go full game with this, to be honest, I
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: would just play Toronto on the money line. But I
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: worry that the market Reid is warning against that fifty
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets around Toronto fifty seven percent of the
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: cash on Washington. I can't tell you why that's the case,
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: but the money is back in Washington here as the
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: slight home dog. But it's not that bad of a
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: price on Toronto at minus one eighteen. To me, I
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: wouldn't think the public would really want Toronto here, even
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: though you Savage is good, but Toronto has a bad record, dude,
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: Like Washington is the better offense and the team with
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: the better record, and that's usually where the public is
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: going to make their play, especially oh my god, I'm
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: kidding them as a home underdog here. I don't know.
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: I have conflicting feelings about this, but I think if
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: I kind of just ignore all that noise and I
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: just say, well, I mean, come on, you Savage is
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: better than Lattel, and then probably you're still backing the
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: better bullpen as well if you back Toronto. So yeah,
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, I see. I think Toronto is the way
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: to lean here. First five is a way to play
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: it as well. If you want to just focus on
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: the pitching, the starting pitching, you could play Toronto in
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: the first five. You'll have to probably pay a little
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: bit more of a price for that, though, but I
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: think full game is okay as well, because Washington's bullpen
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: is quite bad, so I think fading them is usually
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: an okay thing to do. So I think just playing
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: Toronto on the money line at around minus one twenty
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: might be the right way to do that, all right.
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: And Atlanta and the Mets, they had yesterday off because
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: of a rain out, so they're gonna be playing today.
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: The Mets one game one, fourteen to three and did
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: not win the first five play that I gave out
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: on the show. It was a push. Ridiculous, absolutely ridiculous.
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: But now we have two rested bullpens here coming into
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: game one, and you know I talk about that when
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: you have two good bullpens that are rested, I tend
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: to like to lean towards unders. Do I really want
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: to go with an under in this pitching matchup here?
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: And not really, So I'm not gonna be doing that.
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna have a play in either one of
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: these games, but the bullpens should be ready to go
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: in Game one here. Atlanta is number two in bullpen
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: whip and they're number three in ERA still I believe, actually, yeah,
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: number three. They're really close to Milwaukee though in e
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: RA Mets are not bad either. The Mets are eight
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: in bullpens, so we have two pretty good bullpens that
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: are both rested here. Atlanta has a significant offensive edge.
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: They're ninth in offense and they're actually better on the road.
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure the Mets are twenty seventh in offense
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: and without want Soto, Atlanta interesting match up here. They're
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: going with Smith Chaver is going to be pitching a
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: j Smith Chaver is coming back from injury here. He
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: hasn't pitched since last year. What else is new Man
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: with all these pitching injuries that are going on with
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: the Braves here. Smith Shav, I mean, he's an interesting case.
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: He's got some talent, but I think his problem has
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: been that he's walked a ton of guys so far
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: throughout his career. He's only twenty three years old. He's
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: had some decent numbers here in the past, although he's
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: been in the major since twenty twenty three. He pitched,
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: he made nine starts last year and his ERAI looked good,
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: but his whip was way too high. And yeah, it
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: was the walks like that was his main issue. Definitely
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: got to get that down. He was walking like one
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: guy every two winnings, so that his problems the walks.
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: I mean again, it's something that happens quite often with
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: these young pitchers that have a bunch of like talent
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: and really good stuff, but they can't really command it right.
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: He might do okay here though, because he is a
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: talented young pitcher by the way, I looked at what
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: he's done in Triple A this year and it's not
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: a big sample size, and he's still kind of had
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: some walk issues in Triple A, but his overall numbers
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: are pretty good in Triple A. So they're declaring him
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: ready to go. They're bringing him back up. The Mets
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: don't have much experience against them, only wag him and
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: has ever faced him before. One for two with a
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: single and a walk against them, no strikeouts. I would
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: lean towards Shav for having a good outing here, but
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man, do we consider him to be
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: a veteran, because you know, I like veteran pictures coming
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: back from injury. But I don't think we consider him
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: to be a veteran at this point. So I don't know,
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: but I lean more towards him pitching well than not here.
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: The Mets are going with Sean and Iia who They've
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: been using an opener in front of him a bit too,
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: so be aware of that. I think recently he's just
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: been getting the starts though, because he used to be
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: a starter anyway, He's been very mediocre, a four point
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: five two ERA one point three to five whip. But
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: I think if you want to play this game, and
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: I guess you could be safe and pick action on
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: the Mets side just in case they put an opener
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: in front of Mania, but I'm pretty sure you're gonna
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: get Maniah for the bulk of the workload here. He's
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: been a little bit better at home ERA wise, at
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: least four point three six ERA, and he was good
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: in his last start against the Dodgers. That's a good sign.
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: Two of his last three starts were all right, and
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: the start before that was against Atlanta, and he wasn't
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: really that bad in that start in Atlanta, but the
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: fielding behind him definitely hurt him a bit, so half
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: the runs he allowed in that game were unearned. So
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: he wasn't actually that bad against Atlanta there. And he
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: actually pitched well here at home against Atlanta back in
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: June as well, So he's faced them multiple times this year.
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: But overall, Atlanta has a lot of at bats against
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: him eighty four and they've generally had success against him
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: two seventy four average eight nineteenps, although twenty one to
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: four strike out walk ratio. So his command has been
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: really good against Atlanta, and he's a guy that used
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: to have command issues but he's kind of fixed that.
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: But it seems like he's kind of sacrificing it to
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: become more hittable, which isn't good either. He's allowed more
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: than one hit per inning this year. Although his walk
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: rate has gone down from what you usually get out
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: of him, his strike cut rate is actually okay. I
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: don't really think he's gonna pitch that well here. I mean,
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: I think the lean is probably Atlanta in this one.
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: I don't really know what you're gonna get out of
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: Smith Shav here, but I think he probably has the
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: upper hand over Minaiah. But you're also having to lay
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: minus one fifty here with them basic again, it's gone
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: up for minus one thirty two, So it looks like
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: some money has come in on the Atlanta side here,
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: unless some of it had to do with them changing pitchers,
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: but I don't think so, because the other pitcher that
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: might have been slitted to pitch here would have been
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: Chris Sale, So you're not gonna move the line up
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: if you replace Sale with anybody else sixty three percent
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: of the ticket than seventy eight percent of the cash
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: on Atlanta. So it looks like the money is back
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: in Atlanta here and the over eight for whatever that's worth. Yeah,
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think my lem would again also be
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: Atlanta here. They also have the better bullpen. It would
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: be a full game lean. But if you're gonna find
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: a money line that's minus one fifty or more, I
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: think you have to switch to like making your own
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: minus one run line on this, which I don't love
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: to do. And if you do do it, the good
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: thing I guess is that you at least get all
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: nine innings of hitting from Atlanta's offense there. And then
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: I'll just talk about game two as well, in the
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: double header, which is going to be in the nighttime.
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: I think where's that at? Yeah, so they're playing one
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: game in the afternoon and then the other games in
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: the evening, which I think was the normally scheduled game.
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: But that's gonna be the pitching matchup that was going
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: to happen yesterday, I believe, which is Chris Sale against
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: who's he facing hold on where is this game. I keep, yeah,
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: Chris Sale against Christian Scott, Right, so I talk about
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: that game yesterday. I mean I can talk about it
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: again if you want. Chris Sale. I mean, we know
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: he's an ace obviously, two point one ninety one point
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: zero five whip. He's in the Cy Young race right now.
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: He's a little bit worse on the road two point
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: seventy nine. Roadie Ray is still good. He's in very
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: good form right now. He's pitched really well throughout this month,
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: especially his last couple starts. He's been really good, striking
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: out a lot of guys against some kind of weak
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: offens this year. But obviously the Mets are also weak.
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate, low walk rate, high
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: strike out rate. I mean, obviously you expect all of that. However,
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: as I pointed out yesterday, he's not that good against
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: the Mets, believe it or not. In one hundred and
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: seven at bats, the Mets have had the best of him.
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: Three twenty seven average, nine to twenty oh ps, twenty
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: three to six strike at walk ratio. His ratio is good,
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: but he's he has struggled against the Mets. Man a
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: couple of these these guys do a lot of damage
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: against him. Lindor Polanco and Semion all have really good
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: numbers against him in some pretty big sample sizes. We're
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: looking for some hitter props there, hits us, runs, pless, RBIs.
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: Those three guys could be worth looking at here. But yeah,
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: I think Sale might not do that well here in
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: this one. And he's going up against the young star
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: Christian Scott in the Battle of the CSS here, which
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: makes it sound like him back in you know, the
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: Advanced Placement Computer Science and we have some CS contest
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: going on or something. Christian Scott, he's a pretty good
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: young pitcher here. Man three point one to three RA,
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: one point two to six whip isn't that great. And
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: yes he is worse at home three point six Homyra
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: with a much higher opponent batting average at home, But
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: I still think generally he is good. However, last start
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: he struggled a bit against Milwaukee. It was on the road.
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: He had some walk issues in that one, but the
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: two starts prior to that he looked pretty good. However,
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: the start prior to that, he wasn't good against Atlanta
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: and had more command issues in that game, although he
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: was striking a lot of guys out too. I don't
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: know exactly what I want to think here about Scott.
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: Although he has a low hit rate, his walk rate
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: is kind of the one concern with him. His walk
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: rate is too high. His strikeout rate is quite high,
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: so that's good that he obviously could strike guys out
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: at the major league level. But he does actually generally
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: have good numbers against Atlanta in thirty two at bats,
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: fifteen strikeouts, five walks, so he's had a really good
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate against them, one fifty six average allowed in
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: six fourteen ops, because they do have a couple of
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: homers against them. But I think Scott might actually have
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: like a little bit of an edge here, a hit
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: and edge here. Maybe my lean in this game. I'm
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: pretty sure I said it yesterday. I think I would
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: look towards the Mets in the first five in that
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: one man that would be in the night game. And
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: of course you don't know what the bullpens are going
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: to look like after Game one, but we could ignore
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: the bullpens here. Atlanta likely will have the bullpen edge
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: here because they are the better bullpen anyway. But you're
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: looking at minus one fifty on this number here, because
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: when it was announced that Sale was going to pitch
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: in this game, I'm sure that's what moved the line
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: up into the minus one fifty range here. But you
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: can probably get the Mets at plus a half run
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: in the first five at a pretty decent price, I
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: would imagine. I think that's the way I would play this.
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: And the public is all over Atlanta ninety one percent
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: of the tickets eighty seven percent of the cash on them,
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: so they're a public side with less of the money
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: on them. Yeah, I think there might be a hidden
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: edge there. I mean, you know you're gonna pay too
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: much of a price for Sale pretty much every time
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: you want to try to play him, with Atlanta being
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: the team with the better record and whatever. So I
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: like Atlanta in Game one in the afternoon game, but
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: I would lean Mets first five on the run line
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: in game two there. Okay, Baltimore and Detroit, this one,
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: this one almost made the cut for me. I like
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: the under in this game. Detroit won the game yesterday
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: fourteen to nothing, after Baltimore won the first game eight
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: to five. So we've had some very high scores in
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: the series, which might mean maybe you want to fade
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: that idea and maybe look towards an under here. It
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: kind of depends on how out of shape the bullpens
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: are here. But because the game was so lopsided yesterday,
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: when you see a blowout like that, usually it means
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: the bullpens are gonna be in decent shape after that
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: because the game is totally out of hand, right, So
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: sometimes position players just come in and pitch innings, and
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: a lot of times worse relievers come in, like the
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: high leverage arms don't come in, you know what I mean. Now,
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: Detroit might have saved themselves a little bit there by
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: ending a three game losing streak. Detroit, I honestly I
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: don't think they should trade Schooble at the deadline. They
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: might because I think he's in his last year of
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: his contract, But they're in a pretty weak Al Central
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: here man, and they're only five games out of first place.
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: I know they're in fourth place, but they might still
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: be the best team in this division. I believe they're
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: the only team in this division with a positive run
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: DIFP besides the White Sox. They could win this division still,
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: So if I were them, I would still try to
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: do that and not trade. But I don't know. Man,
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: Schoolball is pitching today, by the way, so he might.
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: The question with him is gonna be all those aid rumors.
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: Is that going to get to his head? You know
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: what I mean? That's what you really have to worry
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: about with these pitchers like that. When there's all this
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: stuff circulating about will he be traded? Will he not?
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: You have to be concerned about how is that gonna
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: affect his mental state? Although I generally think school is
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: still gonna pitch well here. I mean, that's usually the
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: way you want to think about his games, because it's
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: pretty rare that he doesn't pitch well now. Detroit, like
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: I said, they only use one guy out of the
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: bullpen yesterday. Like I said, so the bullpens are I think,
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: are in pretty good shape here. Baltimore only US two.
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: They both use kind of like long relief men. So
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: the bullpen's set up pretty well here. Baltimore has been
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: pretty good out of the bullpen over the last month
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: or so. They're number ten right now. Their ear ray
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: is still above four. But I think they're a decent
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: bullpen here and Detroit they have a decent era in
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: the threes, they're sixteenth, but I think both bullpens might
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: be okay to back here. As far as the hitting
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: both mediocre offenses, they're both tied seventeenth. Yeah, they've both
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: been right there in mediocre. But the starting pitching matchup
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: looks pretty underconducive to me, and the oddsmakers are also
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: telling you that by putting a low total on this.
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: Trevor Rodgers is pitching for the Orioles. Looked really good
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: for them last year, as I keep pointing out, really
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: struggled at the beginning of this year, which I don't
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: know what was up with that, but he didn't look
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: good in his career, like when he was on Miami,
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: he wasn't that good. And then suddenly last year he
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: looked awesome for Baltimore. Then this year he looked terrible
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: for Baltimore. But now he looks good again. Like he's
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: been pitching really well recently. His numbers have gotten better.
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: Obviously four point one seven e RA, one point twenty
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: seven whip it's not exactly great, but if you look
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: at what he's done recently, he's pitching really well. He's
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: also been pretty good on the road three point seven
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: to two roadyra with a lower opponent batting average, so
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: he's better on the road. And you can see what
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: he's done recently, and in the month of July, he's
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: allowed two or fewer earned runs in every outing. He's
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: got at least five innings in all of them. He's
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: been pitching really well here. Going back through the last
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: two months the beginning of June, he's allowed more than
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: two urn runs only one time, and Baltimore has won
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: five of his last six games. They only lost in
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: his last game against Atlanta. The bullpen just was bad
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: in that game, Like that wasn't his fault. He had
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: another good start against Atlanta on the bullpen looks like
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: it just completely imploded on him in that one. I
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: think Rogers is likely to pitch well here. He's in
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: good form. His numbers are just okay against Detroit, though,
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: which kind of gives me a little bit of hesitation
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: to want to do this because again I almost added
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: this to my card. I almost went with the under
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: in this game and put it on my card. He's
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: got thirty seven at bats against Detroit at two seventy average,
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: allowed seven to twenty two ops. That's not horrible. But
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: I'd like to see those numbers be a little bit better.
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: Ideally seven to one strike out walk ratio is not
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: bad though, and rogers his overall numbers here. He's got
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: a reasonably low hit rate here, his walk rate is
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: pretty low, his strike out rate isn't really that high though,
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: he doesn't really strike guys out. But I think I
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: would lean towards him pitching well here, and then obviously
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: Schooble is pitching for Detroit here. He's definitely back and
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: form right now. The only thing you have to worry
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: about with him is like, is he gonna have a
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: an off game like mentally because of all the trade rumors,
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: But those have already been swirling, and he hasn't pitched
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: bad recently. He's got a two point seventy RA point
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: nine to two whip I mean, very Schooble esque numbers here.
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: He's been a little bit worse at home three point
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: four to sixty ERA, but still a very low opponent
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: batting average at home, so I'm not really concerned about that.
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: Double digit strikeouts in his last outing pretty much just
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: shredded Kansas City in that game. He's been good over
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: the past month or so he looks like he's definitely
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: back and form here, so I'm not really concerned with
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: him at this point despite the trade rumors. He's got
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: low hit rate, really low walk rate, a high strikeout rate,
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: everything you expect out of him, and his numbers are
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: also good against Baltimore in twenty nine at BASS not
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: a huge sample here. They only have seven guys who
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: have faced him but once seventy two average five forty
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: nine ohps, thirteen to four strike out walk ratio, and
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: some of the guys that haven't seen him might struggle
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: against them just because they haven't seen him before. So yeah,
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: I mean my lean in this game, as I already said,
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: would be the under, and this one was close to
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: making the cut for me. Where is this at American League? Man?
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: Where are you here? It is? It looks like the
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: money is agreeing with that. The total seven and a
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: half fifty six percent of tickets, seventy six percent of
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: the cash on the under. It's low for a reason,
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: as I always say, the oddsmakers think it's gonna be
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: a pitching duel here. Detroit is very public eighty eight
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets, eighty six percent of the cash and
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: Detroit is up to minus one seventy eight. They opened
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: like minus one sixty eight, and the money line has
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: moved up on them. But they're a public side. And
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: if you're looking at a game that you think is
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: gonna be a close, low scoring pitching matchup, usually you
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: want to look towards the dog because I think you're
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: getting at least some value there, and you pretty much
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: know you're gonna have to pay a price for school ball,
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: Like Rogers might be able to kind of battle here,
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: and it might just be a close enough game that
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: maybe Baltimore can hang around here. So I think looking
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: towards like a Baltimore run line type of situation in
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: this game might be an okay thing to do, maybe
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: even in the full game, because I think their bullpen
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: might be able to battle here too. Do with that
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: info you know what you want, of course, But yeah,
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: my preference is the under in that game, obviously, And
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: it almost made the cut for me. The next game,
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: in fact, did make the cut for me. What are
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: we doing here there? It is? I don't know. Sometimes
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: when you click on the image wrong now it checks
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: it on stream yard like because you can you can
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: multi check your like media assets. You can edit a
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: bunch of them at once, but if you just click
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: in the wrong like you have to click on the
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: image to show it on screen, But if you click
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: in the wrong spot and you click that check box
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: that's on it, then it checks it instead of bringing
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: it up. But whatever, we're gonna take the under in
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee and San Francisco here. This total is also at
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: seven and a half. This is a more under the
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: radar under the radar under here. And yeah, I mean
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: I think that this is a this is a good
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: spot to play the under here. I think we have
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: two pretty good pitching setups here, though I don't love
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: San Francisco's bullpen, and I know Milwaukee did use four
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: guys out of the bullpen yesterday, but they didn't really
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: use anybody good. So that's the thing. If you look
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: at what's happened in the series of our San Francisco
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: won the first game three to nothing, but yesterday it
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: was a blowout eight to two Milwaukee win, which kind
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: of pisses me off because Milwaukee was one of the
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: sides that I considered yesterday that was close to making
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: the cut for me yesterday on the show. So I
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: was correct about I wasn't correct about that many things yesterday,
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: but Milwaukee was correct for me yesterday. But an eight
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: to two win basically means the better relievers did not
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: come into that game. Even though Milwaukee did use four guys,
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: their better relievers are available today for the most part.
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: San Francisco, I know their bullpen isn't great, but they
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: didn't really use any of their better relievers either necessarily,
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: so they use three guys. So I'm okay with going
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: full game on this, especially because we're going under the
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: key number seven and a half here, and I don't
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: really want to go under three and a half in
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: the first five. I hate that number and my first
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: five unders have been so bad recently that yeah, fuck it,
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: just go full game on this. Even though I know
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: San Francisco's bullpen, they're twenty third, it's not great, but
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: I think maybe they're a little bit better than that,
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: because again, they have a lot of the same guys
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: they had last year and they were a good bullpen
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: last year. But everything else about the pitching looks better
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: than that. I mean, Milwaukee very good bullpen. Like I said,
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: they're the fourth in era right now. I anough the
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: rank ninth and WHIP. They're a good bullpen. Milwaukee is
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: a good to offense at six, but I think they're
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: gonna be stifled by a starting pitcher that absolutely shreds them.
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: So we're gonna talk about that in a minute, or
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: at least absolutely dominates them. I should say he doesn't
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: necessarily get a lot of strikeouts. San Francisco. I don't
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: think they're that good of an offense. And we're in
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: a pitcher friendly park here too in San Francisco, but
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: they're kind of falling off offensively again, they're back down
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: to sixteenth. I don't think San Francisco's offense is that good.
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: Started pitching here and again, like I said, this is
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: a pitcher friendly ballpark. Two. Shane Drohan is pitching for
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee here. ESPN still has not put his picture up here,
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: but he's having a pretty decent season here. Three point
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: five to one ERA, one point two WHIP. He's been
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: better on the road, at least the Ray wise. His
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: opponent batting average is similar, but three point one six
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: Roady Ray. So Drohan has been good on the road.
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: Last time out, he did give up more runs than
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: he usually does, but I think he got kind of unlucky.
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: It was like everybody that reached base against him scored
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: for Colorado there, and Colorado is a better offense than
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: San Francisco. Drohan was cruising coming into that start, and
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: he still has really good command numbers here, so I
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: don't really I'm not really worried about him right now here.
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: Now he is a con a reliever. He was pitching
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen earlier this year, but he's been
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: pretty solid as a starter. He's a lot more than
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: three or in runs only twice as a starter here.
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate here is walk rate
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: is pretty low as well. His strikeout rate is one
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: per inning, which is pretty solid as well. Not bad
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: numbers here. San Francisco has not seen much of him.
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: The only five guys to have faced him eight hits
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: or excuse he eight at bats, two hits, one extra
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: base hit. Eldridge has a double against him. They have
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: two strike ups, two walks, So it's all. I don't
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: think you read much into it. I mean two fifty average,
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: seven to seventy five ops allowed. But Drohan, he's pitched well,
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: and half of the Giants lineup hasn't seen him before
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: and they're not a very good lineup, so I expect
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: Drohan to deliver a pretty good start here, and I
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: expect more on the other side from Logan Webb, who
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: is the Giant's best starter. He's got a three point
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: nine to eighty or one point one two whip. He's
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: notorious for being better at home, which hasn't really totally
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: come to fruition this year, but throughout his career he's
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: been better in this ballpark, which is a much bigger
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: sample size than this year. But this year is he
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: is a little bit better at home three point nine
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: to seven. He did give up a decent amount of
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: runs at two of his last three or three of
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: his last four starts, but one of them was in
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: course field, and Colorado has really got offensive numbers against him.
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: One of them was here against Toronto, which doesn't look
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: good because Toronto sucks offensively, but they have good numbers
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: against web as well. I'm pretty sure, believe it or not,
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: so I'm gonna throw those starts out. And he pitched
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: better in his last two starts at least somewhat, so
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: I think he's kind of coming back into form. But
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: the main reason I like this is because specifically against Milwaukee,
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: he has dominant numbers against them for whatever reason. I
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: gave out a play on Web when he wasn't really
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: pitching that well. I gave out a play on him
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: on the Giants in the first five at Milwaukee back
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: on June third, and we did get a win with that.
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: They're only up one nothing, but Webb was absolutely he
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: was dominant in that game. Well, he didn't strike many
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: guys out, but he one hit, shutout walking through seven
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: innings in that one. So we were able to get
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: the win there. And I think he's capable of pitching obviously,
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: he's capable of pitching well. Again here, part of the
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: reason why I did that is because he's had Milwaukee's
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: number to an insane degree. Seventy five at bats is
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: what they have against him now. They have a one
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: sixty average against him in four to eighty one. OPS
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: usually don't see offensive numbers that week in that big
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: of a sample size against one pitcher, But yeah, Webb
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: has had Milwaukee's number man for whatever reason. Twenty strike
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: out seven walks isn't exactly good, but he's not a
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: huge strike up pitcher, as you can see here. He's
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: got a low hit rate, low walk rate, but yeah,
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: his strike up rates not very high, but he gets
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: a lot of ground ball outs and whatever he pitches
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: well here in this stadium. I like it. I think
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: it's a pitching matchup. It's underconducive and that's what we're
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: going with, and I believe the market is kind of
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: indicating that way as well. We have sixty three percent
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: of the tickets on the over, but only sixty two
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the over, So that's an
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: indicator towards the under. For me, it's less of the
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: cash in the ticket percentage on the over there, so
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: and the total is low. It's low for a reason.
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: Seven and a half. The money's also back in San
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: Francisco here, which I wouldn't really disagree with. We have
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee's about minus one twenty. They moved up from minus
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: one eighteen to into the minus one twenties. Milwaukee's gonna
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: be the public side because the record is way better
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: than San Francisco's, right, So seventy seven percent of the
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: tickets around Milwaukee fifty eight percent of the cash. People
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: like the Milwaukee bounced back yesterday, But you just saw
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: Webb's numbers. Man, he's got the dominant numbers against Milwaukee.
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: So I think if you're gonna look at the side here,
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: I would take San Francisco in the first five. They
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: might actually wind up being a slight favorite in the
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: first five, but I don't like their bullpen enough. Obviously.
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: I like it well enough to go with the full
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: game under here, because I think Milwaukee's bullpen can kind
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: of help cover it. But as far as the San
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: Francisco side, I think their bullpen is obviously the disadvantage.
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: So I would take San Francisco in the verse five.
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: I was gonna play the side there, but I like
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: the under obviously. All Right, Colorado san Diego, I'm gonna
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: give another play here. We don't even know who's pitching
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: for San Diego, though we kind of do this. One's
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: gonna get a little crazy, man. We're gonna take the
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: Colorado Rockies in the first five at plus one fourteen.
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: They're about plus one twenty something in the full game.
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: But I can't do it full game, man, I can't
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: do it. Their bullpen is so bad, but and San
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: Diego's is not bad. But I think we're gonna have
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: an upper hand with Colorado in the first five here,
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: and that is what I'm gonna go with here. San
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: Diego is not that good for one thing, but also
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: they're on a four game win streak. They did win
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: yesterday eight to seven. This series is gonna continue tomorrow,
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: I believe. Let me see, is it? No? This is
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: the end of the wait? What this is the end
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: of the series? Uh, I don't know what I was thinking.
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: San Diego does play San Francisco next. I don't know
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: if they're really gonna look ahead here, but yeah, I mean,
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: I just think this matchup is actually bad for San Diego,
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: and San Diego did win yesterday, the only one, eight
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: to seven yesterday in a return home spot, which I
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: thought might be a bad spot, but they were able
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: to get the job done yesterday. We're gonna avoid the
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: bullpens because San Diego's bullpen is better. Though they did
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: use Mason Miller because they had to close out the
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: game yesterday. They used three guys yesterday, but I'm still
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: not gonna trust Colorado's bullpen, and they use five relief pitchers,
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: including my Man Bernardino, former Red Sox. San Diego is
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: a good bullpen they're twelfth of I think they're better
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: than that. Colorado twenty eighth with an ERA over five. Yeah,
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: we're not gonna deal with that here. But Colorado is
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: the better offense. They ranked fifth. San Diego is twenty fifth.
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: San Diego has been a little bit better recent but
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: there's still a struggling offense. We're gonna pitcher friendly park here, though,
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: but I'm okay with that. It'll help both pitchers. But
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: that's okay with me because I think we're gonna back
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: the better pitcher here. Believe it or not. I'm gonna
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: recommend backing Gabriel Hughes here before people figure out that
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: he actually might be good. Hughes is a twenty four
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: year old big right hander for the Rockies here, and
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: usually these young pitchers don't do well in the Rockies organization.
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, pitching in course field is bad. Pitchers usually
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: don't want to be here. But of course, if you're
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: a young pitcher and they drafted you, you're stuck here. Man.
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: You know, Hughes has been good so far. I mean
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: his numbers are better than all the other Rocky starters
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: right now, though it's a small sample. Two point seven
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: to ninety array, one point one four whip. He's actually
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: been worse on the road sort of. I know we're
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: backing him on the road here four point five ROADI ARA,
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: but his road batting average allowed is one eighty two,
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: so he's not really been bad on the road. He's
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: only made four starts so far, actually maybe three starts
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: after a relief appearance. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs,
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: and all of his starts, if you want to count
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: these all his starts, and yes, I know the Rockies
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: did lose all three of them, but it wasn't his fault.
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: He went at least five innings in all three. His
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is pretty good here, it's almost one per inning.
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is lower than one per inning, and
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: his walk rate is decent enough, So I mean, he
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: looks pretty good to me at this point. And he's
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: going up against a pretty weak offense in San Diego
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: and they haven't seen him before, So I think that's
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: an advantage to a young pitcher like this going up
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: against an offense that isn't really that good, that hasn't
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: seen him before, and it's a pitcher friendly ballpark, so
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: I think we can back Hughes, and especially because on
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: the other side of things, who's pitching for San Diego, Well,
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: it's undecided right now. Now, what I will say is
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: that when you're gonna play this game, I think you
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: should pick Hughes must start, don't pick a San Diego starter,
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: because I think we pretty much know that it's gonna
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: be either an opener or Griffin Canning, because you can
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: tell what they're gonna do if you go five games back,
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: which was a game where they almost beat Chris Sale
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: by the way in the in this particular game, but
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: it was Griffin Cannon coming in behind an opener and
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: Kevin No, I don't know who that is. Kyle Hart, Yeah, okay,
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: but Canning was bad in that game, and I'm pretty
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: certain that it's gonna be Canning pitching in this game too,
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: possibly behind an opener. But if it is Canning, yeah,
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: I mean he's obviously fatable. He's got a six point
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: nine to seven ERA one point sixty three whip. And
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: you know what, I don't even care if it's Canning
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: or if it's anybody else. You know it's not gonna
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: be Michael King because he pitched in the last game
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: and he's the only starter that San Diego has that's
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: any good really, So I don't care who it is
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: for San Diego. Really, it's not gonna be a starter
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: who's really any good. You know. Canning. Yeah, he's been
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: better at home because it's a pitcher friendly park. Five
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: point seven to forty arra that's still not good. And
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: he's been really bad recently. I mean, he's not going
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: deep into any of these outings. He's allowing a lot
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: of runs, a lot of hits. His walk rate is okay,
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is actually okay too, but he's just very hittable.
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: That's been the case all season really. I think throughout
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: his career that's kind of been the case. He's been hittable,
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: but on the course of this season he's also had
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: way too many walks too, So even though he's been
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: better at that recently, that's still a problem for him too.
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: The only good thing for him is he does have
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: a decent strikeout ray, but I don't think that's gonna
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: be good enough. Colorado, Yeah, they haven't hit him well.
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: They only fifteen at bats against him. It's a small
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: sample size. The four hitters have seen him, but a
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: guy that's thirty years old. He's been in the league
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: for a long time. He's not really a mystery, so
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's really gonna be that difficult for
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: these hitters to figure him out, even though he's held
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: them to a two hundred average and five eighty three
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: oh ps and fifteen at bats whatever, one strike out,
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: one walk. I think we have the edge of Colorado
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: and nobody's gonna play Colorado here. The public is not
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: going to do it. Eighty one percent of the tickets
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: around San Diego looks like a pros versus Joe's scenario here,
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: where Colorado is fifty nine percent of the tickets. San
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: Diego's about minus one forty something. The line has actually dropped,
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: so there's been reverse line movement against the public side
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: of San Diego here. So that does also indicate to
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: me that there is money on the car Colorado side
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: here that is influencing the line, which is professional money.
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: Money's back in the over eight and a half as well,
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: But I got nothing on the total there. I like
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: Colorado in the first five hughes against basically Griffin Canning here. Yeah, okay,
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: give me it, give me, give me the young unknown
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: pitcher who looks pretty good versus the older known pitcher
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: who looks like absolute ass. That's what we're gonna do.
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: Uh Yeah, I mean it's a rare I mean I've
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: made I make ugly plays all the time, but it's
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: rare that I actually have a play on the Rockies.
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: So yeah, let's let's get that one done. I mean,
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: I think usually when I do it, I'm like taking
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: them as a home underdog, and it's rare that I
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: do it. But yeah, I like it there. I mean,
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: I just they never have a good starting pitcher on
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: the mound, so it's like I just can't. I feel
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: like I can never really back them. But here, I
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: think we might have a spot where we actually can.
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: All right, Texas and Tampa Bay. This series, I believe
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: is continuing to ma. I think this series started yesterday,
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: and yeah, Texas actually won the game four to one yesterday.
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: I don't remember what the starting pitching matchup was in
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: that game. This pitching matchup, I mean it looks ugly
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: to me, like this totally looks like it's too low
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: to me in this one, but I don't know. Man. Now,
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay is good at home, so they might bounce
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: back after the loss yesterday. They've been a very good
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: home team this year. Tampa Bay only used three guys
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen yesterday, although they used some of
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: their better relievers, but they generally have the better bullpen
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: right now. Texas used some of their better relievers too,
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: obviously because it was a close game that they won
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: and they had to come in and get the save there.
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: I prefer Tampa's bullpen here. They ranked fourth, although I
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: don't think they're quite that good, but they're better than Tech.
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: Texas has been really really angering me recently because I've
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: tried to back their bullpen multiple times and they've just
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: really really hurt me. They've been bad recently. They ranked
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: seventeenth right now. I don't like it, man, So yeah,
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay's got the better bullpen here. They also the
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: better hitting Tampa Bay seventh. Texas is twelve, so Texas
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: has actually been hitting better recently. They're tied with Houston
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: and the White Sox right now. Though I don't think
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: Texas offense is that good, but I think they've kind
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: of shown that they're more of a mediocre offense and
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: better than what they were last year. Texas is going
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: with Mackenzie Gore here. Gore, I mean, he's always been
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: a pretty talented pitcher, Like he's got good strikeout stuff.
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: He's hard to hit, but he's always extremely wild, and
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: his numbers kind of suggest that four point eight two
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: ERA one point three to one whip not that good.
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty bad on the road. He's good at
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: home in the in the Rangers pitcher friendly park there,
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: but his r on the road is six point oh two.
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: That is not good. It's almost three runs higher than
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: it is at home. His team has won his last
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: three outings, but the one that he had on the
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: road against Atlanta, that was that game where Atlanta where Yeah,
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: that was the game I just talked about, right it was?
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: Who was at the pitch for Atlanta? I don't even
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: remember man or whatever it was? Oh no, maybe I'm
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: thinking of a different Oh no, I was thinking of
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: Atlanta Baltimore never mind, but yeah, whatever. Gore wasn't really
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: good in that game, but he got a lot of
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: run support in that game and they were able to
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: win the game. Anyway, he's kind of been alternating good
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: at bad starts and if he's if he does that
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: this would be a bad start here, which maybe it
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: will be because he's on the road where he's nowhere
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: near as good in Tampa. Small sample size here, three
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: hitters have faced some sixteen at bats, but they have
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: had success against them three seventy five average, nine ohps
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: four to two strikeout walk ratio. So I lean towards
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: Gore not pitching well here. Given all the things that
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: we could see here, Tampa Bay is going. Thanks for
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: announcing it this time, Tampa that they're going with Casey
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: Lego Mina. Is that I pronounced it as an opener
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: here the small legume. I'm pissed because Tampa Bay last minute,
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: they had put Legu Mina in as as an opener
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: last time when I thought it was gonna be Ian
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: Seymour and we would have had the win if we
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: just didn't specify a pitcher for Tampa Bay. If you remember,
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: that was a day where I my only play was
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: back in Toronto. That day was a short card. I
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: think it was last Thursday, and it was a win.
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: It would have been a win if we specified no
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: pitcher for Tampa because Seymour did still pitch, He just
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: came in after Legu Mina pitched the first two winnings
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: of the game, and then Seymour pitched the rest of
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: the game, and we got that was the good start
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: from Shane Bieber. Actually, now Tampa is going to use
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: Ian Seymour here, So that's what I'm trying to say.
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: Lego Mino is going to pitch one or two winnings
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: here and then it's going to be Ian Seymour after that.
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: So I think he's the guy that we really want
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: to handicap here. What does Seymour's numbers look like here
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: against Texas? Overall, he's got a four point six four ERA,
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: which is not very good, but his one point one
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: to five whip indicates that his ERA should be lower
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: than that, and he's been good at home. He's been
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: much better at home than on the road. Three point
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: eight to nine. Homye Ra still pitched well when he
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: came into that game against Toronto. He did not outpitch
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: Shane Bieber. But I know that sounds weird after what
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: we saw yesterday, But Seymour wasn't pitching that well leading
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: into that game. He'd had a few bad outings in
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: a row. Although you know, nothing like facing Toronto's offense
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: to right the ship because their office isn't that good.
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: So maybe Seymour will do okay here because Texas isn't
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: that good of an offense and Texas has never seen
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: him before, so Seymour probably has the upper hand here, man,
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: So I think I would have to lean towards Tampa Bay.
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're good at home. Like I said, they're
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: in a bounce back spot after losing yesterday. The money
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: is not agreeing with me though, seventy four percent of
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: tickets and fifty five percent of the cash on Tampa.
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: They've moved up on the money line a little bit though,
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: for minus one thirty seven to minus one forty something,
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: So the money seems like an initially at least came
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: in on Tampa Bay, and now it's kind of coming
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: in against them. I don't see how you could really
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: back Gore here, even though he has a small sample
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: size against Tampa. They're bad numbers, he's bad on the road.
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: Tampa's in a bounce back spot. I'm right about that, right.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: They lost yesterday, Did I get that right? Yeah? So
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: I think the situation and the pitching throughout the game
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: favors Tampa here, Like bullpen included as well, as long
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: as Lego Mina doesn't fuck things up early in the game. Yeah,
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: I would lean to Tampa in that one, let me see,
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: although I don't Again, I don't let the market read
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: on it. I don't feel that strongly about it. But yeah,
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: Tampa money line probably is the play there. But it's
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: in the minus one forties. It's a little bit juicy.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: And yes, I know it's a low total seven and
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: a half. So usually when you see a low total
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: like that, that kind of indicates you should be kind
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: of looking at the underdog and expecting a closer game.
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: But whatever, all right, next game up is my last
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: play of the day, which is a night the only
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: night game I have, which is Cleveland and Cincinnati, the
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: Ohio Battle. And we know one thing is that these
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: two teams played two games yesterday, so that has to
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: be kind of looking to fade bullpens because the bullpens
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: are gonna just be completely taxed after that. And yeah,
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: that is what we're gonna do here. We're gonna play
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: this game over nine. Here we're in a pitcher friendly
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: par or soon we're in a hitter friendly ballpark here
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: in Cincinnati, I don't think either pitcher is very good,
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: and the bullpens are not in good shape. And we
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: have one bad bullpen here as well, which is the Reds.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: Uh So we're gonna fade all the pitching here. Cincinnati
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: used nine relief pitchers yesterday in the doubleheader. Yeah, that's
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: not good. So literally every one of their relief pitchers
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: pitched yesterday, even though they didn't use anybody the day
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: before that because there was a rain out. But still
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: that's really bad. So the rest situation is not good,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: and it's not much better for Cleveland. They had a
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: couple of guys that didn't use that. They use six
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers, including Gaddis who they use as a closer.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: They use some of their better relievers, so the bullpen
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: situation is not good coming into this, although Cleveland is
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: generally the better bullpen and they are a little bit
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: more arrested, so they do have the bullpen edge still,
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: if you want to call it that, they're fourteenth and
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: bullpen the Reds are twenty fifth. But I'm gonna fade
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: both bullpens and both starters here. I know these offenses
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: aren't that good, but I think they can get something
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: going here in this one. Reds are only twenty second
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: and Cleveland is dead last at thirtieth, but they do
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: have Jose Ramirez back at least and these are not
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: elite pitchers by any means. Now, yesterday, the game's one
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: of the games is high scoring, which that game was
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: misleading though, because if you saw what happened, I think
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: that was the Chase Burns game, and Cleveland won the game.
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: Cleveland was up four to nothing, blew the game and
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: then still won the game. But if you saw what
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: happened Burns, it was not his fault. It was he
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: gave up four unearned runs in the game. So there
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: was this horrific fielding for Cincinnati just ruined the game
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: for them in game one, and that game should have
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: been lower scoring. And then Game two. I liked Cleveland
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: and Gavin Williams pretty much dominated that game, but he
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: got no run support and Cincinnati won the game two
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: to nothing. I have no idea how because Cincinnati went
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: with a bull in that game. Because Brady Singer was
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: supposed to start that game, they pushed him back to
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: today and they went with a bulp end game and
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: the bullpend. That's part of The reason why they used
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: nine relief pitchers is because they used like five or
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 2: six to combine for a shutout there. I don't think
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: it's gonna happen again, man, I think this is gonna
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: be a higher scoring game this time. I know we're
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: not looking at two good offense this year, but we're
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: looking at very tax bullpens. The total is pretty high
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: for a reason, and we're looking at pitchers that aren't
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: that good. Joey Cantillo is pitching for Cleveland. His four
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: point h two ERA looks alright, but one point four
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: to six whip not good. He's not as good on
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: the road. Four point two ROADI are a much higher
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: two seventy eight opponent batting average, so he's not as
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: good on the road. He's not a good form right now.
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: His last two starts are both pretty ugly against Pittsburgh
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: and Tampa Bay. And I know the Reds are not
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: as good as an offense as those two teams, but still,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: he's not a good form here right now. He did
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: pitch against the Reds earlier this year, back in Cleveland,
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: and he was not good in that he only all
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: only allowed four runs in five innings, but he had
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: four walks, four hits allowed, four strikeouts. That was not
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: a good pitching line, so he did not pitch well
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: against them there. His hit rate is okay on the season,
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: his walk rate is way too high, so that's one
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: his main problem is the walks. He does actually strike
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: out a lot of guys, which is a good sign,
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: but his walk rate is unbelievably high, so he's extremely wild.
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: He gives it up and he I know it looks
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: like he's been good against the Reds because they have
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: a one eighty two average against him at eleven at bats,
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: but you saw what he did the last time he
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: faced them. He wasn't good. And they have an eight
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: to fifty five ops against him, one home run from
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: Dane Myers, and they have three strikeouts four walks here. Now,
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: I know Spencer Steer is injured right now, which is
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: why he's not in here for the Reds. I'm pretty
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: sure he's hurt, so that will take away something from
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati's offense, but I still think they can get something
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: going against cantell Oplus Attax Cleveland bullpen here. And we're
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: also going to fade Brady Singer, who he is not
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: a very good pitcher, a four point five to three
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: ERA one point three to eight whip. Now he is
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: much better at home, so he is in the way
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: better of his home road splitz here two point nine
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: to eight home he ra and two twenty eight upon
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: a batting everyge, So yeah, I get it. He's way
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: better at home. He's actually been pretty good for the
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: most part this entire month. His last three starts were good,
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: including one in Colorado, and he's facing a weak Cleveland
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: line up here. But the last time he faced Cleveland
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: in Cleveland, he was bad. And I know it was
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: on the road, but they got five runs off him
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: in four innings seven hits. Did have six strikeouts, which
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: is good in one walk, but they tagged him. They
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: hit him for three home runs. He's got a high
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: hit rate on the season. He's got a really high
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: home run rate, which you would think wouldn't be good
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: for him pitching at a home run friendly ballpark here.
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: He's got a low strike out rate, his walk rate
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: is just okay. There's not a lot to like about
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: Singer here. And another thing to really not like is
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: Cleveland has done a lot of damage against him in
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: the past. They are They're very familiar with him because
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: he was on Kansas City, so he was in Cleveland's division,
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: and Cleveland plays against the Reds twice a year because
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: they're the interleague rivals of Ohio, so they see Singer
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: a lot. They have one hundred and seven at bats
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: against them, three eighty three average, one thousand, seventy seven ops,
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: seventeen to eleven strikeout walker east year. These are some
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: ugly numbers here in Jose Ramirez being back. Yeah, he
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: does do a lot of damage there. Yeah, let's just
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: take this game over. The total, man, it's a combination
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: of all the things that I just said. The money
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: seems to agree with this. Totals nine, which is fairly
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: high for a reason. It's kind of just stuck around nine.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: So yeah, you're getting over the key number nine here.
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: So you're right on that key number, which is fine.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: I think you might be able to find an eight
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: and a half of that that looks like it's coll Well,
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: I don't know we're allowed to Maybe we're allowed to
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: say the predictive markets. I don't know, the predictive market
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: that starts with a K. That sounds like that gross
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: Bland cereal at eight and a half there with juice
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: to the over, but all the actual sports books have
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: it at nine. I'm still fine with that. Fifty tickets
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: ninety one percent of the cash on the over. So
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: the money is playing the over. That's what we're gonna
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: do here, and for some reason, the money's backing the Reds.
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: I don't agree with that fifty to fifty on the tickets,
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: seventy seven percent of the cash on the Reds. Maybe
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: it's because Singer is way better at home, but his
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers really suck against Cleveland, so I probably would
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: prefer backing Cantillo here, and Cleveland's bullpen probably has a
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: slight edge, But some of it probably has to do
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: with the fact that Cleveland is minus one thirty something,
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: which does seem like they shouldn't be favored like that
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: with Cantillo on the mount on the road. So I
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: think a lot of the money here with the seventy
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: seven percent of the cash on Cincinnati, has to do
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: with just the value that might be there, although I
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: don't see much of it myself. I like the over here.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: But yeah, that's all the information for that game. All right.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: I'll talk about one more take a break and then
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: I'll come back and finish this off. I already talked
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: about the double header between Atlanta in the Mets, Kansas
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: City and Minnesota. I think I was wrong about Minnesota yesterday.
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: They won, but they won an extra innings. I said
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: that I liked Minnesota. Actually I was right. I think
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: I said in Minnesota first five, they actually did get there.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: Taj Brad They looks like he was good again. He
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: outpitched who was it, Seth Lugoh yeah, barely. So actually
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: I was correct about that. So I'm kind of pissed
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: because that would have been a win if I put
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 2: that in my card, the minus half run with Minnesota,
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: although it would have been close. As you guys mentioned,
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: Joe Ryan is pitching today. I mean, he should have
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: the upper hand here against a pitcher that's basically a
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: converted reliever that has not really stuck in Major League
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: Baseball for Kansas City. Like you, gotta think Minnesota does
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: have the advantage here, at least in the starting pitch.
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: I mean, the bullpens are just a complete crapshoot. These
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: are both very bad bullpens. Minnesota only these three guys
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: yesterday in that win even though it went into extras.
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: I think it was only a ten inning game. Though
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: Kansas City us four guys yesterday. I would not back
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: either bullpen ever. Basically they're twenty ninth and thirtieth Minnesota
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: and Kansas City respectively. Although the A's have a worse
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: bullpen he Ray than both of them, but these are
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: two bad bullpens. Minnesota has been a decent offense. They're
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: tenth and Kansas City is nineteenth, but they're not as
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: good on the road, although Minnesota tends to play high
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: scoring games at home, although I know yesterday was not
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: one of them. Kansas City's going with Randy dab Knock
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: again here. Again. He's a thirty one year old converter reliever.
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: He does have a one point four two ERA here,
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: but don't trust that. He's not good one point three
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: seven with you'll get his career numbers. They're like mediocre
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: at best. He's barely been able to stick in the majors.
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: He's just been off and on in the majors throughout
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: his career. He's from South Park, though, so maybe there
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: were some jokes to be had in there. I don't know.
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: Not Colorado though, Pennsylvania. I guess there's literally a town
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: called south Park there. No idea, But yeah, Dob Knock
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: is not that good. Oh my god. He is a
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: zero era in the road so far. Man, he's gonna dominate. Yeah,
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: I don't think so. Although he actually was good in
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: his last road start at Detroit. He was good in
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: his other roads starting against the Mets as well. He
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: allowed no runs in both of them. I guess theoretically
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: he could come in and pitch well here. I wouldn't
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: want to bank on it. Minnesota does only have one
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: hitter who his face and Josh Bell, and he's two
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: for two with a double against him, no walks and
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: obviously no strikeouts. But yeah, Dob Knock, I guess you
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: could make the argument he's unfamiliar to Minnesota. But this
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: guy's not gonna continue pitching like this, man, I'm sorry
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: he's not. Joe Ryan is obviously the better pitcher here,
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: although you have to lay a huge price for Minnesota
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: here if you want to back him. Ryan three point
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: three eighty r a one point one whip. He's been
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: a little bit better at home as well, three point
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 2: one nine homey ra awful in his last start at Cleveland.
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 2: I don't know what the hell that was. If he
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 2: was thrown off by pitching in the All Star Game,
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: which I gave you guys Minnesota, or I think the
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: under actually in the game against Cleveland. I think it
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 2: was the first five under that I gave out, and that, yeah,
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: because I had avoid Minnesota's bullpen, and Joe Ryan ruined
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: it for us. He's ruined two games for me, and
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 2: that was one of them. Well one of them. He
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: didn't give up any earned runs, So I'm pretty sure
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: I gave out Minnesota in this game against Houston, and
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: Ryan gave up no earned runs and we still lost
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: that play because six unearned runs came home against him.
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 2: Fucking bullshit, man. But this last game, I really didn't
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: think he'd be effected by pitching in the All Star Game.
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: Was you're talking about a veteran who has pitched in
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 2: the All Star Game before. I'm pretty sure, so I
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: didn't think that was gonna rattle him at all. And
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: Cleveland is not a good offense. I don't know what
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: happened to Ryan in that game. He gave up six
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: home runs in four innings. What the fuck? Eight runs,
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: ten hits, I have no idea. But do I think
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: he's gonna also pitch poorly here? No, I don't really
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 2: think so. I mean he's a good pitcher. I think
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: he will bounce back from that. He's shown a ten
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: to do that. He's too good, really not too and
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: against the Royals, he's been pretty good in the past
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: in eighty three at bats to twenty nine average, although
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: they have hit hit for some power against him seven
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 2: to twenty three ops. Still not really that high. Fourteen
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: to seven strikeout walker ratio. It is too many walks,
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: but six of them are Collins and Pasquentino. But none
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: of these guys really actually hit him well, So do
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: what you want with all that. But yeah, I mean,
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: I think the only way that I could really see
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: looking at this game is to take Minnesota in the
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: first five. Again, do I want to know? I mean,
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: Minnesota is up to minus two hundred now up for
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: minus one to eighty two. That's in the full game.
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 2: They might even be higher than that in the first five,
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: even though it's a shortened game, like you'd have to
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: play Minnesota like maybe even minus one run in the
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: first five. I'm not willing to do that, although if
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: you do it first five theugh, at least bat in
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 2: the bottom of the ninth. They give you a chance
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: to get some runs in the bottom of the fifth there.
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 2: But you gotta think Minnesota does have the upper hand
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: and the starting pitching. That's the big advantage they have.
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 2: It's just that you're paying for it if you try
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: to do that. Eighty seven percent of tickets eighty five
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on Minnesota, so they're public with
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: less of the money coming in on them, and the
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 2: money is back in the over eight and a half
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: or nine here fairly strongly as well. Maybe there are
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: some arguments for that. I mean, really, the only good
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: pitching that you're gonna get in this game is theoretically
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: from Joe Ryan here. So the rest of the pitching
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 2: Dob Knock and both bullpens are all fatable here in
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: my opinion. So yeah, the over probably makes more sense
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 2: than the under in that one. All right, I'm gonna
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: be right back. I'll talk about the rest of these games.
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: I don't have any more plays. I gave you the
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: four plays I have. I have one more that almost
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: made the cut for me in one of these late games,
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: and then I'll talk about the two WNBA games, which
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: I don't think are very interesting. Today, I'll be right
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: back yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: and seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 2: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: have not had a good season. Man with wookends the
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've reached
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my Bruins
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: hat Man. I don't know what is going on with
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: the Bruins Arch hate? Is that what it is? I
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: don't even know it's it's March ninth, I think who
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: even knows? Man, I don't know what day it is anymore.
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what day it is anymore. Man's
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 2: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: did not go well for me. Own five the worst
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: month that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: To the slump. Series slump discontinuous, The slump continues. Somebody
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: should do at this point other than potentially end it
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: all all right. These remaining games here we have Yankees
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: White Sox. This series is actually a four game series,
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: so it's actually continuing tomorrow. But the Yankees have won
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: the first two games here, which I kind of expected
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: because they had a starting pitching advantage in both games.
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: This game is on Prime and MLB Network, for what
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 2: that's worth. My Yankees, I would say, have a pitching
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: advantage in this game too, and I think the Yankees
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: are probably the only way to look at this game again.
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: Yankees have a bullpen advantage as well that they did
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: use their closer yesterday, Bednar I they only use three guys,
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: kind of light usage in general for them. White Sox
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: used two guys. White Socks have an okay bullpen their
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: nineteenth or e rays below four, which isn't too bad,
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: but the Yankees have the second best bullpen the RA
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: and they're number three in WHIP, so they're good. Yankees
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: offense has kind of fallen off a bit recently. They
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: had one good offensive showing so far in this syear
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: is that they're eleventh in offense right now. White Sox
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: are twelfth. Still think the Yankees are the better offense
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: here as well, though they have the advantage really throughout
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: this game because Cam Schlitzer is also pitching here. He's
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 2: been really good two point zero seven e RA point
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: nine to three whip, really good on the road, one
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: point eight Roady RA he's been even better on the road. Yeah,
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: I mean he still looks like he's in really good form.
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 2: He's coming off a dominant outing against Philadelphia where I
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: gave the Yankees out as a play in that one
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 2: of the under looks like it was the better play,
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: but we still got the win in that one. Schlitler,
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 2: you might have just start worrying a little bit about
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: his innings count. That's the thing with these young pitchers.
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: They're not used to throwing this many innings in a season,
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 2: so at some point they might have a little bit
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: of a drop off here. I usually consider it to
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 2: be more about around like around one fifty, and he's
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: at one thirty and a third right now. But we'll see.
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: Maybe somebody keep an eye on all though. I wouldn't
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: want to bank on him pitching poorly yet though here
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: when he's really shown no signs of it yet. He's
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: got a low hit rate here, low walk rate, high
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate, I mean everything that you expect. His numbers
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: against the White Sox are very limited, but they're good.
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: They only have three guys who faced him eight at bats.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: The only guy that has a hit off him has
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: been in Tendy a single. They got four strikeouts, no
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 2: walks against him. That's a one twenty five average two
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: fifty oh ps. Some easy math to do there. And
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: Davis Martin is pitching for the White Sox and he's
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: one of their better starters. But I don't think this
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 2: is a good matchup for him, and he's been kind
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: of faltering recently. His ERA is still good three point
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: four to nine, one point two to seven whip is okay.
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: Martin's been significantly better at home as well, two point
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: three to four homeye ra. He doesn't look that good recently, though.
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: His ear Ray in the month of July is six
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: with a ten to nine strikeout walk ratio, and the
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: White Socks have lost all four starts, and it was
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: against Cleveland, Boston, Toronto, and Houston. Houston is the best
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 2: offense of those teams, and those are mostly not good offenses.
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: So Martin seems to be kind of fading as the
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: season goes along. Here. That's not good. And he did
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 2: face the Yankees once and it was his worst start,
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: probably of his career. It was in the Bronx, but
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: he got absolutely destroyed by the Yankees in that game.
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: So I don't think that's a good sign either. I
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: would not want to back Martin in this one of those. Overall,
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: his numbers look pretty good here, reasonably low hit rate,
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 2: walk rate, pretty low strikeout rate is okay. Numbers against
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: the Yankees, you know these are not gonna be good.
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: They just destroyed him last time, but they already had
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 2: good numbers against them. Although Martin is better this year
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 2: than he has been in the past, but fifty four
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: at bats, three thirty three average, one thy, thirty one ohps,
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 2: fourteen to five straight out walk ratio not good numbers.
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: I think the only way that I'd be able to
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: play this game is to play the Yankees in the
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: full game. You're looking at, Yeah, the price is maybe reasonable,
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: really like minus one forty. Maybe it looks a little
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 2: bit too easy, but the White Socks do get a
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: little bit of hype. We have eighty eight percent of
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: tickets ninety five percent of the cash on the Yankees,
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: so it looks like they're public, but maybe the actual
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: money coming in that way as well that the line has.
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: The line has actually kind of dropped a little bit
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: on the Yankees against where the public is, which doesn't
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 2: make me love the Yankees here, but still, you just
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: saw the handicap, I mean, all the matchup numbers and whatever.
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 2: I think if I was gonna play it, I would
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: have to lean towards the Yankees. Just money line the
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: full game. I guess the money also looks like it's
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 2: back in the under or no, it looks like it's
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 2: coming in on the over. Now. The total is low,
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 2: it's seven and a half, So the oddsmakers are kind
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 2: of telling you we think this is going to be
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: a p pitching duel, but I'm not so sure about that.
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 2: Although you think the public would come in on the
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: over here, because oh my god, even though it's Schlitler,
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: it's the Yankees and the White Sox, and in everybody's mind,
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: it's offense offense, you know what I mean, although maybe
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: Schlitler kind of dampens that a little bit for the public.
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: But we have seventy eight percent of tickets, eighty six
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the over the total being
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: at seven and a half. To me, there's not a
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 2: lot of leeway there, and I think Martin might kind
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: of get blown up in this game. But yeah, I
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 2: mean the way that I see it, I think the
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 2: Yankees are the way to play that game. Cubs and
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis. This series is continuing tomorrow as well, so
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 2: this is a four game series as well, I believe, yeah,
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: and Saint Louis has lost the first two, so I
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: was correct about I think yesterday. I said I was
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: a leaning Cubs yesterday just based on the matchup numbers.
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: I think it was Colin Ray, but I think they
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: got the win behind him. The Cubs look like they
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 2: have a better pitching matchup in this one. They have
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: the better starter here in this one, but Saint Louis
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: might be a little extra motivated because they're trying to
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: avoid getting swept here, although again they do play tomorrow
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: as well. But when the team's lost the first two
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 2: games of a series, a lot of times they will
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 2: be in a better spot. And they are the home
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: team here and they're going to be an underdog here.
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: But Saint Louis is not that good though, like the
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: Cubs are the better team here, and I think the
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 2: Cubs probably have the advantage in every phase of this game.
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 2: They have the better bullpen. They only used two guys
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: yesterday because they won easily. Saint Louis used four guys
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen yesterday, so Saint Louis has the
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 2: lesser bullpen and they're less rested. The Cubs are fifteenth
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 2: right now, but they've gotten their RA back below four,
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 2: so I think they're an okay bullpen. Saint Louis is
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 2: twenty second with a mid for ZRA, not great. Cubs
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: are number four in offense. They've been hitting better again.
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis is significantly worse than that at twenty six,
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: so the Cubs have the way better offense here. This
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 2: is a pitcher of friendly park, for what that's worth.
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: Matthew Boyd is pitching for the Cubs. He seems like
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 2: he's regained his form here after he missed a lot
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: of the season with some injuries. He's been good for
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: the last couple of seasons though. He's got a three
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: point eight one ERA one point two to four whip
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: not too bad. He's good on the road, a three
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 2: point two to one Roady ra al, though his opponent
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: batting average is a little bit higher on the road.
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 2: But he's made mostly road starts this month, and he's
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: had a pretty good month here. Those walk rates a
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 2: little bit high, but he's not allowed many runs here.
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: He's pitching well. I believe we got a win with
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 2: him on the show barely against Pittsburgh last time. I
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 2: think we faded Jared Jones. Maybe that was a bad idea,
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 2: but we still got the win with that one. Jones
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 2: didn't have good matchup numbers though, but whatever Boyd. Overall,
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 2: he's got a reasonably low hit rate here. His walk
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: rate is fairly low, strike got rate is okay as well.
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 2: But yeah, he's come in to form and the Cubs
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: have won his last seven starts, and that goes back
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 2: to before he was injured by the way. But since
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 2: he's come back from injury, the Cubs have won every
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: time he started, So that's a decent sign if you
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: want to look at the Cubs here. Saint Louis has
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: not been that bad offensively against him, though they have
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 2: six hitters who have faced him thirty at bats to
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 2: sixty seven average, seven to sixty seven oh ps, so
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis has slightly had the upper hand against Boyd
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 2: hitting wise eleven to three strikeout walk ratio. Saint Louis
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 2: is going with Dustin May here, who he's kind of
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: been better than I thought he would be this year,
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 2: and he is better at home, but he's not that good.
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: A four point five to ninety RA, one point three
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 2: to two whip. He hasn't really been good just generally
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: since his Tommy John surgery or whatever the hell he had.
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 2: But yes, he's been good at home this year, three
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: point four to five y RRA in the pitcher friendly
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 2: New Bush Stadium or whatever the hell. He's got a
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 2: bush on his face, by the way, uh two thirty
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 2: nine opponent batting average. He was good in his last
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 2: start here at home against Cincinnati. He was struggling a
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 2: little bit prior to that. He was not having a
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: really good month prior to that, and his team has
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 2: lost his last four starts, including that one against Cincinnati,
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 2: but that wasn't his fault. He pitched well that when
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: he got very little run support in that one. So
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: maybe he's coming back into form with that last start.
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 2: But the Cubs are a different animal than the Reds.
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: The Cubs are a better offense. May has allowed exactly
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 2: one hit per inning. He's got a pretty low walk
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: rate and a decent strikeout right here, so his numbers
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 2: overall are actually okay against the Cubs, though not great.
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: Thirty six at bats three zero six average, one thy
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 2: seventy one ops eight eight strikeout walk ratio. So he
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 2: does not have good matchup numbers here. I know Boyds
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 2: aren't great, but based on the trends here, the Cubs
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 2: have won all the Boyds starts as he's come back
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: from an injury. May his team has lost all of
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 2: his starts this month, so I mean, those are some
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 2: trends there. I think Boyd does have the upper hand,
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: and then you have the better bullpen and better hitting
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 2: as well. I'll only be able to play the Cubs
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 2: here if I was gonna do this, although motivationally you
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 2: think Saint Louis would come out and play better to
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 2: try to not get swept here, though again they do
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 2: have tomorrow as an opportunity to do that too. But
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: I mean, they want to win this game, there's no
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 2: question about that. And the money is actually back in
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis seventy eight percent of the tickets on the Cubs,
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: eighty nine percent of the cash on Saint Louis. It
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 2: looks like it's like a Pickham price here, and yet
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 2: it does look too easy to play the Cubs, which
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 2: worries me in that market, redefinitely worries me. But the
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 2: way that I just broke it down, I think I'll
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 2: only be able to lean to the Cubs in that
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 2: one full game on the money line there, but certainly
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 2: not going to make my card or anything like that.
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: Totals at eight and the money's coming in towards the
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 2: under on that one as well. For what that's worth,
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: I don't have a great feel for that. Houston and Anaheim.
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 2: Anaheim is trying to avoid getting swept here. I believe
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: this is the end of this series. Houston. I forget
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 2: who they're playing next. I don't know if it's anybody
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 2: that good, I believe, let me see. I guess I
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 2: have to look because a lot of times when a
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: team is on the verge of a sweep, I want
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 2: to see, like, who are they playing next? You know
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: they're playing Actually it's a big series. Actually they're playing Texas,
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 2: so that might be a look ahead. Texas is ahead
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: of Houston in the Al West right now by like
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 2: two games or something or two and a half, so
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 2: that is a big deal. So Houston might overlook Anaheim
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 2: here in the last game of the series. Houston's already
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: won the series. Big series starting over the weekend against Texas,
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: which is not tomorrow though Houston has tomorrow off, but
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 2: the day after that, Houston will have a rest advantage,
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 2: by the way, in that game. As far as the
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 2: bullpen's here, Houston's is the better of the two. They
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: used four guys yesterday. Anaheim not a great bullpen. They
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 2: used five guys out of their bullpen yesterday. Anaheim is
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 2: ranked twenty first, Houston eighteenth. We're really going at two
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 2: not very good bullpens here, but Houston's is the better
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 2: of the two. Houston's been the better offense to their
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 2: twelfth tied with Texas and the White sox Anaheim is
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 2: twenty fourth, so Houston does have those edges. Houston's going
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 2: with Hayden Wesnsky starting, and I forgot all about this guy.
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 2: This is I don't know what to think about this.
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: If you look at his over he hasn't pitched this
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 2: year at all. If you look at his overall, he
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 2: pitched between twenty twenty two and twenty twenty four with
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 2: the Cubs, he was partially a reliever, partially a starter,
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 2: and he was actually fairly good for the most part
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: there and then he actually was decent for Houston. Houston
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 2: used him entirely as a starter last year for six
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 2: starts before he got hurt, and he actually put up
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 2: pretty good numbers. He didn't put a lot of guys
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 2: on base. He was better than his RRA looked at
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 2: four point five, but his one point h ninem whip
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 2: was pretty good. So yeah, I don't know. I mean
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 2: wesn Netsky, I mean he seems like he's a decent pitcher.
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 2: Like I'm not gonna say he's great or anything, but
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 2: he's not that bad to me. I don't know. What
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 2: he looked like. I didn't look at his minor HA
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 2: rehab stuff because I decided I wasn't gonna play this
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 2: game anyway. But if you want to go look at
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: what he did in the miners, go do it. Probably
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: you should. I mean, I'm probably just being lazy here
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 2: just because I decided I didn't want to play this
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 2: game anyway, though. But Houston is saying that he's ready
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 2: to go, and he's pitched in the majors before, so
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 2: I'm not too concerned about that. And he's been really
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 2: good against Anaheim when he's faced them. They have twenty
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: eight at badast him an seventy one average four nineteen ops.
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: They only have two hits off him, although they're both
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 2: home runs from Sean Well, how do you pronounce his name?
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 2: I have no Shanuel and so Lair they each have
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 2: a home run off him, but they have ten strikeouts,
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 2: two walks, still only a four nineteen OPS against him.
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 2: So Wiznski has been good against Anaheim when he has
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: faced him, and they haven't seen him for like two years. Well,
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 2: they haven't seen him for probably a year at this point.
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 2: At least. G Rod is pitching for the Angels here,
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 2: Grayson Rodriguez trying to come back from injury and things
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 2: have not gone well at all for him here after
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 2: he missed all of last year and he looked like
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: he was gonna be a decent pitcher. But yeah, it's
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 2: not looking good here. Eight point five four ERA, one
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 2: point seventy nine whip that's not good. He's been awful
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 2: at home so far, ten point two to two home
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 2: he are with a three point fifty two opponent batting average.
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 2: Really bad. He's been bad this month. His last two
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 2: starts have been awful. There's not a lot to like here.
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 2: He's got a high hit rate, high walk rate, fairly
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 2: low strikeout rate. Yeah, I'm not liking what we're seeing here.
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: Against Houston, he's been okay in forty four at bats,
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 2: two fifty average, seven thirteen oh ps, eight to five
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio is not good. The rest of
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 2: those numbers are okay. And he did actually pitch against
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 2: Houston already this year at home, so in the same
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 2: stadium here back on June eighth, and he actually was
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 2: okay in that start. It was one of his better
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: It was probably his best start actually of the season
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 2: because the rest of them. Actually, his best one was
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 2: against Detroit, so it was his second best start, which
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: maybe is not saying much because he's been bad pretty
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 2: much all season, But this might be a better matchup
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 2: for him the most. I still don't think he's trustworthy
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 2: at all right now, though, I don't know what we
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 2: do here with this game. And I mean the situation
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 2: seems like it favors Anaheim here. You know, like I
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 2: was looking for a reason to fade Houston right because
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 2: they're on the verge of a sweet pier, which is
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: usually when you want to look to fade a team,
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 2: and they might be going to head to Texas. They
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 2: got seventy three percent of the ticket, sixty eight percent
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 2: of the cash. They're sitting around minus one thirty something.
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 2: The line hasn't really moved. That's Houston. So the market
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 2: indicators are saying to look towards Anaheim here. I think
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 2: if you're gonna do that, you got to play them
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 2: in the first five innings. I don't think you get
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 2: back their bullpen. It's not backable. The money's also backing
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 2: the over nine and a half pretty strong with here.
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 2: A loddsmakers seem to think this will be a higher
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 2: scoring game. I don't know, man, I mean, I'm a
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 2: little bit hesitant about that. I think both starters there
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 2: might be some positives in there, really, but I don't know, man,
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 2: I mean I to me, the matchup seems to favor Houston.
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 2: To me, though, I don't like the situation though, so
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: I just got to stay away from the game. I
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 2: don't even really want to give out an opinion on it,
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 2: because it's just that's one of the hardest games to
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 2: figure out. Red Sox and A's. I almost give out
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 2: a play on this one. The A's evened up the
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 2: series of the win yesterday, and the Red Sox fans
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 2: were all making fun of this series, saying, the Red
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 2: Sox are gonna easily get a four Sweeten, but you
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 2: guys are fucking idiots. Like the first two starters, Perkins
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 2: and and Gauge Jump are both pretty underrated. Man. And
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 2: now we have a game today where Patrick sand of
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 2: All is pitching for the Red Sox because they have
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 2: no other option right now, this guy sucks. I'm sorry,
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 2: this is not good. Although the A's pitcher also sucks here.
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 2: Now the A's are at a bullpen disadvantage. There's no
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 2: question about that. They use two guys out of the
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 2: bullpen yesterday the Red Sox. I think, yeah, Red Sox
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 2: used two as well. I thought it was three, but
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 2: they used two. Red Sox have the best bullpen the
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 2: Array and Whip now in baseball. So the Red Sox
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 2: are number one in bullpen and the A's are twenty
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 2: seventh but have the worst bullpenny ra So you could
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 2: argue this is the best bullpen versus the worst bullpen,
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 2: so the Red Sox definitely have a bullpen advantage here.
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 2: The A's have the offensive edge. They're fifteenth. The Red
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 2: Sox are still struggling a bit at twenty first, although
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 2: they've been better recently. But this series has not been
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 2: seeing a lot of offense so far. But I think
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 2: that's gonna change here. I think this is gonna be
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 2: a much higher scoring game. So maybe you could tell
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 2: already that this game almost made the cut for me.
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 2: This is the first game that I left off my card.
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 2: I was very close to putting this on my card.
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 2: I like the over in this game. Sandoval, like I said,
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 2: is pitching for the Red Sox. He blows. He's got
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 2: a three point two to one era, but he's nowhere
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 2: near that good. His whip is one point six y four,
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 2: which is disgusting, really and not in a good way,
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 2: really bad. I look at his career numbers. He's not
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 2: this good. Just he isn't. I'm sorry. He's had eras
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 2: that were misleadingly good throughout his career, but he's just
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 2: not good Man. He puts way too many guys on base.
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 2: I know the Red Sox have won all three of
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 2: his starts so far, but he's given up way more
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 2: hits than indings pitch. His walk rate is just okay,
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 2: well it's fine, but his strikeout rate is actually fine
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: as well. But yeah, I mean he's way too hittable
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 2: and that might be a problem here in this stadium.
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 2: He's got a lot of flyba that he's allowed here,
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 2: and you want to kind of look at like a
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 2: bigger sample size, see is he a fly ball pitcher? Well,
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 2: he's not really that extreme of a fly ball pitcher,
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 2: but still I don't like how this sets up man.
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 2: This is a very difficult part to pitch in. I
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 2: don't expect him to do well. And the A's have
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 2: seen a little bit of him because he spent his
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 2: entire career with Anaheim, you'd expect that the A's would
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 2: have seen more of him. Really, the A's have seventeen
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 2: at bats against some four hitters, but they've been successful
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 2: against the two ninety four average eight ninety eight ops
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 2: with a Walton home run in there two to two
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio, So I don't think Sandoval is going
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 2: to pitch particularly well here. Jacob Lopez is on the
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 2: other side here, and he's been stinking up the joint
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 2: as well. Six point one two ERA one point sixty
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 2: seven whip, so both of these pictures have like the
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 2: same whip. But Lopez the difference is his ra is
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 2: just accurate to what he is. He sucks six point
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 2: one two. That's not good. He's worse at home seven
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 2: point six to two home here, though obviously part of
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 2: it is a higher home run. Actually has a lower
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 2: opponent batting average at home. But I still wouldn't trust
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 2: him either way. He did just shut out Minnesota for
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 2: five innings on the road, but he walked four guys
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 2: in that out and he was really struggling before that
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 2: hasn't gone deep into most of his outings. They might
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 2: even put an opener in front of him, so that's
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 2: something to be aware of. Like, I think you're gonna
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: play this game, I think you should just play at
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 2: action just in case the A is using an opener
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 2: in front of him, because it's not like they're gonna
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 2: replace him with anybody good. And I'm almost positive the
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 2: Red Socks are not gonna change who's starting here. So yeah,
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 2: but whatever Lopez, I mean, he's typically not going deep
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 2: into outings. He's got a high hit rate here, his
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 2: walk rate is really high, that's a problem. His home
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 2: run rate's not good either. His strikeout rates kind of low.
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 2: There's not a lot to like about Lopez and the
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 2: Red Sox, very small samp. Only three hitters of face
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 2: and one of them is Curtis me though, and he's
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 2: on the IR, so I don't know why he's even
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 2: in here. Although he's zero for two off Lopez with
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 2: two walks, but still, I mean, even if you take
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 2: him out, the Red Sox are uh two for four
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 2: off him if or two for five off of mexcuse
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 2: if you take him out between Durban and Jones. I mean,
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 2: there's not much to draw from this as a small sample.
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 2: Red Sox including Mead overall have a two to eighty
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 2: six average. The batting average is actually better than that
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 2: ops eight seventy three. It's actually a little bit lower
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 2: than that with Mead out, but still, yeah, Lopez is
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 2: not good in general, So I have some reservations about
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 2: this one. And the total is really high. It's ten
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 2: and a half, but it's the highest listed total that
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 2: was seen in the series so far. It's flipped to
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 2: juice to me, juice to the over here seventy one
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 2: percent of the tickets and eighty two percent of the
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 2: cash on the under though, so it looks like the
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 2: money is kind of in. It came towards the under.
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 2: I don't see the public really coming in in the
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 2: under here, even if they think it's a high total.
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 2: I don't see them really coming in and playing an
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 2: under in a game like this with two pitchers that
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 2: are just awful. So I don't know, uh, but yeah,
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 2: I think the over is the way to play this game.
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 2: And the Red Sox are very public. Ninety four percent
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 2: of the tickets, ninety two percent of the cat on them,
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: and they were about minus one fifty something. I know
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 2: the a's are bad. The oddsmakers really don't like the A's,
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 2: but that's I think that's too much of a price.
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 2: That's probably why the money's kind of coming in towards
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 2: the A's and you really have to worry about a
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 2: team that's as public as the Red Sox are here.
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 2: I don't like it. As a Red Sox fan, I
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 2: don't like seeing this. I know Sandoval blows, so whatever. Yeah,
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's just about the price, I think is
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 2: why the money is gonna come gonna start coming in
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 2: on the A's here. There's no way that a pitcher
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 2: like Sandova should be favored like that on the road
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 2: against anybody. So that's I think what's going on there.
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I think the over is the way to
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 2: play that. And then we have Seattle and the Dodgers.
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 2: Seattle got the seven to six win yesterday. The Dodgers
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 2: were in a return home spot, as I pointed out,
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 2: with having to change time zones, so it wasn't great
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 2: for them. One thing I forgot to mention, though I
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 2: did mention Seattle was also in a negative spot yesterday
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 2: to some degree, but I forgot to mention Seattle was
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 2: at a rest disadvantage. I forgot. Seattle played the day
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 2: before that in the afternoon against Texas, so I forgot
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 2: they were at a rest disadvantage, but they still won
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 2: the game in dramatic fashion. Maybe it's a bounce back
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 2: for the Dodgers now, though, because you know, I talk
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 2: about when a team returns home from the road and
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 2: they play poorly in that first game, a lot of
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 2: times they bounce back well enough in the second game.
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 2: Dodgers have some advantages here, though I don't think the
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 2: bullpen is one of them. They use three guys out
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen, Seattle used four, But I think Seattle
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 2: is the better bullpen. The Dodgers all ranking seventh, Seattle's eleventh,
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 2: but Seattle's ERA is a half run better, So I
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 2: think Seattle is the better bullpen. Dodgers are the better offense,
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 2: obviously by quite a bit. They're number two, Seattle is
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 2: number twenty eight. Pitching matchup is interesting here. On the surface,
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 2: it looks like you gotta admit that Seattle's starter is
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 2: the better one here. With Emerson Hancock, he's been good
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 2: three point one six ERA, one point h one whip.
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 2: He's only a little bit worse on the road. Three
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 2: point four or five Roady ra So Seattle's a very
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 2: pitcher friendly park and their pitchers tend to do well there.
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 2: But he's still been pretty good on the road though.
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 2: Pitch well last time out against Cincinnati, not bad. There
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 2: had a weird shortened outing against Tampa Bay. I don't
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 2: know what that was, but he pitched well when the
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 2: prior start as well against Toronto, and the start before
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 2: that was okay against Cleveland's. He's been good for about
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 2: a month now after hitting a bit of a speed bump.
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate on the season, low
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 2: walk rate, decent strikeout rates, so his numbers are pretty
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 2: good across the board here. Definitely doesn't put too many
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 2: guys on base, and the Dodgers are not really familiar
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 2: with him. Kyle Tucker has facing him and he's one
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 2: for three of the home run and a strikeout, but
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 2: Hancock is basically completely unfamiliar to the Dodgers otherwise, so
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 2: he might have a little bit of an extra advantage
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 2: here given that he's a good young pitcher and the
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 2: Dodgers haven't faced him. Though I know the Dodgers, they're
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 2: an elite lineup, so it's not easy to face them,
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 2: but Hancock might have the upper hand here. Dodgers are
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 2: going with Eric Lauer, who they got from Toronto. He
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 2: was really struggling with Toronto. Finally, ESPN updated is a
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 2: head shot to give him a Dodger uniform. His overall
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 2: numbers still don't look very good. Four point eight three
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 2: RRA one point two to six whip. That whip isn't
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 2: that bad at this point, though, and he's been much
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 2: better since coming over to the Dodgers. Though he still
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 2: has a bad homey RA in general five point four
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 2: to five, but a lot of that was when he
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 2: was with Toronto. He's been way better with the Dodgers.
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 2: He start he got he came over to the Dodgers
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 2: in late May, and the Dodgers have literally won every
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 2: game that he started since then. So that's eight starts.
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 2: I believe he's allowed no more than the three earned
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 2: runs in any of them, and the Dodgers have won
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 2: all of them. So he's obviously pitching, but he's not great,
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 2: But he's obviously pitching a lot better since changing over
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 2: to the Dodgers. Seems like maybe he's more motivated. Like hey,
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you think about it, he was on
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 2: the Blue Jays last year and lost the World Series,
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 2: and now he's on the team that won the World
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 2: Series and is obviously the team that has the best
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 2: odds to win the World Series again this year. So
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 2: he's got a real shot at maybe getting that World
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 2: Series this year. Man, So that probably does up pump
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 2: him up a little bit and get him motivated to
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 2: pitch better. He does have a pretty low hit rate
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 2: at this point in the season. Is walk rates not
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 2: bad either. His strike gout rate is very low. Though
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 2: he doesn't strike guys out, he gives up a lot
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 2: of fly balls and that's translated into a lot of
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 2: home runs. And that's the one concerned with him is
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 2: he allows too many home runs. And now against Seattle,
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 2: he does have good numbers here in forty one at
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 2: bats one seventy one average for eighty eight ohps, thirteen
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 2: to four strike out walk ratio, so he's got good
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 2: numbers there. I think this is an under That's the
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 2: way I would play this game. The money looks like
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 2: it's not agreed. The totals high at nine and a half.
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 2: I don't really know why. The screen is kind of
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 2: fucked up now with a lot of totals here, but
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 2: we can still see the numbers on this game. Fifty
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 2: six percent of tickets, eighty eight percent of the cash
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 2: on the over, I don't agree with that. I like
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 2: the under in this one, although I worry that the
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 2: totals high, and it's usually high for a reason. But
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 2: I think both starters can get the job done here,
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 2: and I think both bullpens ken as wells So I
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 2: like the under. Yeah, I mean the well, yeah, well,
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Did yesterday's game going to extras? No?
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 2: It didn't because I was gonna say, well, we saw
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 2: what the bullpen usage was anyway, and it wasn't really
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 2: that extreme, so whatever. And then as far as the
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 2: side is concerned, I don't have a great feel for
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 2: the side. The Dodgers are very public ninety of the
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 2: tickets and cash on them at minus one fifty something,
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 2: maybe that would have you leaning a little bit towards
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 2: Seattle here. I think generally Hancock is better than lour
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 2: uh just has more upside there, plus a better bullpen
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 2: with Seattle, So maybe the slightly would be grabbing Seattle
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 2: at like a plus one run line or something like that.
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 2: But I think my preference is to go under in
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 2: that game, all right, And then we got a WNBA
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 2: here only two games. I don't really have much to
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 2: say about the WNBA here. I'm not really I'm not
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 2: interested in playing either game here. First game is on USA,
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 2: They're both on USA. It's a double header, first game
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 2: at eight pm. I mean, it's a decent matchup as
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 2: far WNBA is concerned. Atlanta at Dallas. Now, I've these
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 2: teams are coming out of the All Star breaks. So
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 2: like I said yesterday, I like to look at what
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 2: was the team doing going into the All Star break,
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 2: because I think the All Star break is a momentum stopper,
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 2: like a bye in football. I think it will stop
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 2: whatever momentum you had. Now, for Dallas, they were pretty hot.
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 2: They won eight of their last nine games or something
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 2: like that going into the break, and they won their
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 2: last game against Portland. Of note, Beckers came back in
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 2: that game. So their best player, Beckers got hurt in
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 2: the LA game here on July nineteen that she missed
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 2: the game against New York and they almost won in
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 2: the injured player spot, so the team stepped up their
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 2: game without her. As I say, when your star player
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 2: goes down, a lot of times, you play better without her.
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 2: She came back in the next game and she didn't
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 2: play that much, but that was again that was the
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 2: reverse injured player spot, where when your star player comes back,
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 2: a lot of times you'll take your foot off the
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 2: gas and not do as well. Plus they just come
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 2: up that huge game against New York and lost a
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 2: big win streak. Did I give out Portland and game
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 2: I don't remember if I did or if I didn't.
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 2: It seems like I would have. If I didn't, I
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 2: think I missed a spot there that would have been
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 2: a good spot to play Portland. I believe Portland covered
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 2: because Dallas only won that game by four, but I
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 2: would still say they went into the All Star break
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 2: pretty hot, so it might hurt their momentum a little bit.
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 2: But this will be Becker's second game back now, so
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 2: you don't have to worry about a reverse injured player spot.
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 2: She's already played a game, so she should be better
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 2: and ready to go in this game and probably probably
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 2: play more minutes here. And she played in the All
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 2: Star Game too, so I think she's ready. Dallas is
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 2: not going to overlook Atlanta. Both these teams are good.
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 2: Atlanta also went into the break fairly hot. They won
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 2: three games in a row leading into the break, although
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 2: their last game, I mean, none of the games were
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 2: really against good teams. The last game they barely beat
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 2: Chicago at home. But I don't think they're gonna overlook
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 2: Dallas either. I don't really see much of an angle
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 2: in this game. I think it's just gonna come down
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 2: to kind of a numbers play here. If you're gonna
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 2: play this game, now, Dallas is like a one point
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 2: favorite here, one and a half up from a pick them,
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 2: sixty eight percent of the tickets around them, fifty eight
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on Atlanta, So the public is
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 2: kind of coming in on Dallas here. The actual money
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 2: is coming in on Atlanta. Now. Atlanta's the way better defense,
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 2: so that might be part of the reason why the
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 2: professionals like deepfense. It's a high total though, in the
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 2: one eighties, but the better deepfense is Atlanta. Dallas likes
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 2: to play fast and play offensively, and usually yes, I
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 2: like the better deepfense, but I'd have some concerns with it.
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 2: I mean, Dallas plays in a tougher conference. The Western
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 2: Conference is way more difficult than the East. And Dallas
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 2: has a pretty good home record at eight and four,
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 2: Atlanta only seven and six on the road, So those
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 2: are some concerns where Dallas has the better home road
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 2: splits and they're in the tougher conference. I'm staying away
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 2: from the game though, but the money is saying to
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 2: take Atlanta there. The reason I see fo it, like
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 2: I said, is that you're playing the better deepfense there
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 2: and Atlanta might be a little bit underrated based on
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 2: what there a record looks like there. And then we
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 2: have Golden State at Phoenix in the second game on
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 2: USA Network, also on CNBC. Phoenix was fairly hot going
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 2: into the break as well. That was the last winner
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 2: I gave out in the WNBA. Was that last game
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 2: before the All Star break we won with Phoenix against LA,
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 2: so they went into the break on a two game
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 2: win streak. Nice win against LA. The other win against
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 2: Connecticut was whatever. But they'll probably be focused on this game.
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 2: It's a big game, it's a TV game. Golden State
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 2: pretty good team coming in to play Phoenix here. Phoenix
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 2: does have a big ABC game next against New York,
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 2: but I don't think they're gonna overlook Golden State. Golden
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 2: State actually went into the break on a lesser note.
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 2: They lost a huge win streak though they'd won nine
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 2: or ten games in a row, and then they lost
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 2: to Washington in the second straight game against Washington, where
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 2: Washington actually played them tough both times. So I could
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 2: see it going both ways. On the one hand, they
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 2: went into the break on a bad note, and maybe
• 1:45:52
  Speaker 2: they'll adjust and fix whatever went wrong in that game.
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 2: But on the other hand, they were rolling. And you know,
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 2: I talk about this when a team has won a
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 2: bunch of games in a row. In their case, I
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 2: think it was eight games in a row. I did that. No,
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 2: nine games in a row, Yeah, I said that. I
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 2: said it was either nine or ten. Ye was nine.
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 2: And then they lost one game. A lot of times,
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 2: the team that loses a long win streak like that,
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 2: it'll hang them over and maybe that will even last
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 2: through the All Star breaks. So that has me a
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 2: little bit concerned here. I'm not going to play the game.
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 2: I don't know what I would want to do with that.
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 2: I do think Phoenix is not quite as bad as
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 2: the record looks, though, and Golden State it looks kind
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 2: of easy to play Golden State here. They're very public
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 2: eighty eight percent of the tickets and cashier laying five
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 2: five and a half with them they're the better team,
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 2: but it looks really easy to lay a price like that,
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 2: and I think Phoenix might be a little bit undervalued here,
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 2: even though they haven't really been good at home. Golden
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 2: State's been pretty good on the road, but I think
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 2: Phoenix is just not quite as bad as the record
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 2: makes them look. So i'd probably slightly lean towards grabbing
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 2: the points of Phoenix. I don't have a strong opinion
• 1:46:50
  Speaker 2: on either game though, and this total is way lower,
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 2: by the way, in the one fifties, So what I
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 2: would always say, even though I know it didn't work
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 2: out yesterday and it was a little bit higher scoring
• 1:46:59
  Speaker 2: than I effected yesterday, But when it's expected to be
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 2: a low scoring game like this, every point is worth more,
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 2: so you tend you want to look towards the underdog
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 2: more often than not. When you have a low total
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 2: like this, it means that there's a better chance the
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 2: dog is gonna cover. If it's a lower scoring game,
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 2: there's a better chance it's gonna be a closer game,
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 2: So that's what I got on all that. That's gonna
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 2: do it. We do have a lot of baseball plays here.
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 2: We're gonna be right away. We're starting the action in
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 2: the afternoon with Philly in the first five innings minus
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 2: the half run. You have to pay a little bit
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 2: more juice for that maybe at this point, but I'm
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 2: still recommending that we're gonna take the under in Brewers Giants.
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 2: We're on money line first five on the Rockies. Nobody's
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 2: gonna like that one, and then we're also on the over.
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 2: So we have a nice spread of games here. Man.
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 2: We're also on the over Cleveland, Cincinnati over the nine,
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 2: right on that key number there. So let's get a win, man.
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 2: We really we basically have to go three and one
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 2: to get a win here. There are some ways this
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 2: could end up two and two where we get a
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 2: win here, like if the Colorado one winds up being
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 2: a loser, we can go to and two and still win.
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 2: But like a very slight amount, but whatever, let's have
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 2: a winning day. Let's get back on track here, man,
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 2: I think we should have won the WNBA game last night.
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 2: Shane Bieber should just send me a check in the mail.
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know what else to say about that, but
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 2: that's gonna do it. Learn to tone on Twitter, mundatone
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 2: on Instagram, like, subscribe to the channel here, let's boost
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 2: this thing. Let's keep increasing the subscriber count. Man, get
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 2: some more stuff going, try to maybe do some more
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 2: content here if I can figure out what I really
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 2: want to do with that. Run on audio as well
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 2: helps if you listen over there. So we had one
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 2: big day on like Sunday. There were a lot of
• 1:48:39
  Speaker 2: listens for some reason, so let's keep that up. Numbers
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 2: might be trending in the right direction again. On the
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 2: audio Spotify, Apple Spreaker covered in You because my ukule
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 2: Lately channel on YouTube with you covers and some originals.
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 2: You can check that out. Padreon dot com slash learn
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 2: to toe if you want to support me that way,
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 2: and I'll try to get some of those our requests
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 2: done soon. I know I keep saying that, but I
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 2: want my voice to be in better shape. I thought
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 2: it would be over the summer, but the show also
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 2: kind of hurts my voice quite a bit. And patroon
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 2: or no I said that Patron dot com slash learned
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 2: to Tow loser cast every Tuesday night. We had ken Wood.
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 2: I think it was our guest name on the show
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 2: last night. He's a comedian. It was good to hang
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 2: out with him last night. I think it was a
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 2: fun show. So you can check that out. New York
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 2: Giants g Spot podcast should be back at some point,
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 2: and I think that's it. Man, let's get back on
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 2: the winning side here. Man. We were hot until yesterday,
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 2: so hopefully yesterday it was just a blip. This is
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 2: still a good run, you know, just generally. I mean,
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 2: I think I've been pretty good at this. But we're
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 2: still running sixty percent over, you know, almost a four
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 2: month span now, which is not easy to do so
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 2: with a decent amount of volume here. So let's keep
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 2: it going. That's gonna do it for now. Peace.
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 1: If the docs starts talking, hand me the phone, let
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 1: somebody in, so let somebody know.
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 2: You do not have to.
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 1: Lose this round a longe. Hold on, hold on, nothing nice,
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 1: not now. Hold on, hold on, let me pull you
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 1: out that bad luck by time, but it don't get
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 1: the crown. Hold on, hold on, stay with me, nine,
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 1: hold on, hold on, You're still here.