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The NVDA Wildcard: Defense Mode Activated · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning , traders , and welcome back to Spy Trader .
• 0:03
  I’m your host , Rick " The Rip Tide " Roller , here to guide you through the choppy waters of the premarket .
• 0:09
  It's 5 am on Wednesday , November 19th , 2025 , Pacific time , and after four painful days of selling , we are seeing a cautious rebound attempt this morning .
• 0:20
  Stock futures are pointing slightly higher , but the air is thick with uncertainty , mostly thanks to a little AI chip company reporting after the close today .
• 0:30
  The market is trying to find a floor after the S&P 500 recently closed below its 50day moving average , a level we hadn't touched since late April .
• 0:40
  While strong corporate earnings have provided support , elevated valuations in the highflying tech names and indecision from the Federal Reserve are keeping the volatility high .
• 0:51
  Let's dive into the specifics .
• 0:53
  All eyes today are locked onto one megacap tech name : Nvidia , or NVDA .
• 1:00
  The AI darling reports quarterly earnings after the closing bell , and the result will determine the immediate direction of the AI trade and the entire techheavy Nasdaq .
• 1:10
  NVDA is already down nearly 5% this week on fears of an " AI bubble , " making the outcome a massive catalyst for instruments like the Invesco QQQ Trust .
• 1:21
  Outside of semiconductors , we’ve seen incredibly mixed results in the retail sector , which is hitting Consumer Discretionary names hard .
• 1:31
  On the positive side , Lowe's ( LOW ) jumped over 5% in premarket trading after crushing its earnings beat and raising its fullyear sales projection .
• 1:40
  That’s great news .
• 1:41
  However , Lowe’s shine is dulled by competitors like Home Depot ( HD ) , which saw its stock fall 6% the previous day due to disappointing profits , and Target ( TGT ) , which missed sales estimates and lowered its fullyear profit forecast .
• 1:58
  This suggests consumer spending might be cooling off , which leads us to the broader analysis .
• 2:04
  While tech is getting hit , the underlying corporate health is actually quite solid .
• 2:09
  Q3 earnings are practically wrapped up , with 82% of S&P 500 companies beating expectations .
• 2:18
  That strength should limit the depth of any correction .
• 2:21
  What we are seeing is a clear rotation .
• 2:24
  Money is fleeing growth and high valuation areas , specifically Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary , which recently saw sharp daily declines of 1.68% and 1.86% respectively .
• 2:38
  Investors are moving toward defense .
• 2:41
  The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLV ) is outperforming , up 0.56% , and Energy ( XLE ) is also showing strength , supported by rising oil prices .
• 2:54
  Adding to the tension is the highly divided Federal Reserve .
• 2:58
  The Fed cut rates last month to 4% , but market expectations for another 25 basis point cut in December are split , hovering right around 49% .
• 3:10
  The fact that the FOMC is so divided — hawks versus doves — is keeping the fixedincome market nervous .
• 3:19
  However , bonds are generally performing well this year , with the 10year Treasury yield sitting around 4.12% as core inflation eases to 3.0% .
• 3:28
  So , what do we do today ?
• 3:30
  It's a day for defense and patience .
• 3:32
  First , we need to overweight defensive sectors .
• 3:35
  Since XLV , the Health Care ETF , is currently showing relative strength , use that as a core defensive play .
• 3:43
  Second , don't abandon the market entirely .
• 3:46
  Q3 earnings were strong , so for broad exposure , keep holding diversified ETFs like the iShares CORE S&P 500 ETF , or IVV , to capture the overall corporate health while insulating yourself from the tech concentration risk .
• 4:02
  Third , utilize fixed income to stabilize the portfolio .
• 4:07
  Bonds are performing well as inflation moderates .
• 4:10
  Look to the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF , or BND , to add diversified stability .
• 4:17
  Given the major division within the Fed , however , avoid aggressive bets on longduration bonds like the TLT .
• 4:24
  Finally , for the AI trade itself : hold your core position in the QQQ , but do not aggressively add new capital right now .
• 4:33
  The NVDA report is the wildcard .
• 4:35
  For existing investors in core AI players like Microsoft or Amazon , just hold and wait for a clear postearnings signal before making new moves .
• 4:45
  Patience is key today , folks .
• 4:48
  Until the closing bell , I’m Rick " The Rip Tide " Roller , and happy trading .