Latest / Financial Survival Network / Maximizing Wealth Through an Integrated Approach -- Andrew Winnett #6030
Transcript
- 0:00The real wealth builder is holding it so that it can accumulate. In our
- 0:05area, real estate's accumulating at eight to ten percent, which is unbelievable.
- 0:10You're going to beat inflation. There, you are listening to Carrie Leutz's Financial
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- 0:30gift. Financial Survival Network now more than ever. And welcome. You are
- 0:40listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz.
- 0:45Well, we all know inflation is here. It's here to stay.
- 0:48The numbers have been coming in higher than the so called experts we're expected.
- 0:54The only thing this expert is done by is the fact that they admitted that
- 0:59inflation is coming in higher than expect it. Well, we've got a really
- 1:03good guest on today, Andrew Winnett. You're look, you've been around Hollywood
- 1:08literature, finance, you produced, You produced movies like The Retirement Deception and
- 1:15The Baby Boomer Dilemma, So you're an expert on this. So inflation.
- 1:21First, where does inflation come from? I mean, I know that most
- 1:25of you out there know it, but it never hurts to refresh and get
- 1:29a different view on that. Andrew, thanks for coming on. And oh,
- 1:33if you've got a question for Andrew or myself, shoot me an email
- 1:37kl at Karrie LUTs dot com. So, Andrew, it's great to have
- 1:41you on Where does inflation come from? You know, like if you listen
- 1:46to the politicians, they just can't figure it out. They have no idea.
- 1:49But you and I know differently, don't we, Well you do,
- 1:53Carrie. It's great to be with you. So there's a lot of problems
- 1:57that we're experiencing in our economy right now. Inflation is clearly one of the
- 2:01biggest. You know, we're I don't want to kick a dead horse,
- 2:06but you know, to oversimplify, when we elect dead horses in this country,
- 2:10we don't kick them. That's true. That's that is true. Hopefully
- 2:14we don't do that again here in a couple of months. But so when
- 2:19we print too much money, obviously it's going to have an inflationary effect.
- 2:23You know, if you look at our present debt, which is you know,
- 2:27across thirty four trillion dollars. We're on a run rate of ten trillion
- 2:31per year through twenty thirty. I mean, we're talking colossal amounts of debt.
- 2:38Now, the inflation problem. You know, if you go back to
- 2:42Jerme Powell, which is kind of like the Wizard of Oz, he's the
- 2:46guy in the behind the scenes who's pushing all the levers, and he has
- 2:50a big part to play in this inflation issue. And you know, the
- 2:54Federal Reserve, they really only have a couple of tools in their tool bell,
- 3:00and oftentimes it just takes us on this merry go round dealing with inflation
- 3:07and then combating inflation by raising interest rates, and the interest rates to destroy
- 3:13the economy and we go into a recession. And then we lower interest rates
- 3:16essentially quantitative easing, printing money, and the cycle starts over. And so
- 3:22we're in another cycle. But the problem is is that this merry go round
- 3:24can only go around so many times before this debt is unsustainable. What I'm
- 3:30concerned about is not just inflation, but it's also how is the stock market
- 3:38going to perform in the long term. We are going to have inflation.
- 3:43In fact, if you were to look at back in the late seventies and
- 3:46eighties, you know, the Paul Wolker era, when we had double digit
- 3:50inflation. You know, back then, they were factoring in food and energy
- 3:55into that CPI number. And they're being honest about it. Right last year.
- 4:01You know, for for a long long time, the definition of a
- 4:08recession was two quarters of negative GDP. Well we had that last year,
- 4:13and then all of a sudden, they're like, no, no, no,
- 4:15no, no, we're going to change the definition. I know we
- 4:16had two quarters of make EDP. We're going to change the definition. That's
- 4:20not what a recession is anymore. They're doing the same thing with inflation now.
- 4:26They're extracting food and energy out of the CPI numbers, which is forty
- 4:31percent of the entire metric. And so the numbers that we're getting are flawed,
- 4:35they're skewed, they're manipulated. You know, their goal is a two
- 4:40percent inflation rate. That's never going to happen. And even then, you
- 4:46know, we're having a hard time at the three percent three point one to
- 4:48three point two, the sticky inflation. I'm concerned that inflation is going to
- 4:54continue to go up. And as it goes up, what is the Fed
- 4:58going to have to do there. We're going to have to keep rates higher,
- 5:01and something's going to break. Banks are not out of the woods yet.
- 5:05We're going to have a lot of problems moving forward. And I'll end
- 5:09it with one other thought. You know, right now the stock market is
- 5:13at essentially all time highs. I mean, it's been an unbelievable ride.
- 5:17But you know, there's that old adage and obviously we all listen to the
- 5:21same experts, but if you show me your demographics, I'll show you your
- 5:27future. You know, predicting the stock market on the short term is extremely
- 5:30difficult, right It takes a really big braining to look at the trends and
- 5:35predict, you know, what the stock market is going to do on a
- 5:39day to day basis. Oftentimes, when people do that, they end up
- 5:42becoming a chain smoking, you know, day trader and they're stressed out of
- 5:46the find losing their hair. But predicting the stock market on the long term
- 5:50is actually very easy because it's all demographically driven. Right. So, right
- 5:57now we have such a swelling elderly pop population that they call the silver haired
- 6:01tsunami that around twenty thirty we are going to have so many people retired or
- 6:09retiring, we're not going to have enough workers or taxpayers to cover the rising
- 6:15costs of social security, social security, disability, Medicare, and Medicaid.
- 6:19And we're not the only country in this predicament. The entire messy yeah,
- 6:25Western world is in this predicament. Right, I've seen the charts. They're
- 6:28scary, they are terrifying. You're absolutely right. Carry you look at Germany.
- 6:32Germany's in just as bad a shape as we are. China, similar
- 6:38situation. They're one child policy backfired big time. Then you look at Japan.
- 6:43Japan is the worst in the entire world for their demographic problems. And
- 6:47once the demographics get off kilter or out of whack, the stock market flatlines.
- 6:55If you look at Japan as an example, because of their demographic issue,
- 7:00their stock market and I'm oversimplified, but their stock market has been stagnant
- 7:04for three decades. You look at Europe, They're an older country, same
- 7:10thing. Their stock market has been relatively flatlined and stagnant for two decades.
- 7:15As we in America go into this new season with this demographic problem, the
- 7:21stock market is not going to perform like it has like we've enjoyed, and
- 7:27when that happens, inflation is going to punch harder. It's going to hit
- 7:31us even worse because we don't have our accounts right, our stocks balls mutual
- 7:36funds that are combating inflation. So we're facing some big problems. And then
- 7:43one little cherry on top. Stanford Research recently came out and said, well,
- 7:47by twenty fifty, the average lifespan will be a century long with AI
- 7:54technology and with modern medicine, so people are going to be living longer.
- 7:59The stock market is not going to perform as well. Inflation is going to
- 8:03be a consistent problem because of our massive debt. I mean, it's kind
- 8:07of a recipe for disaster. You're just a bundle of optimistic, cheery thoughts
- 8:15today, aren't you, Andrew. Well, we have solutions. We have
- 8:20solutions, and if you'd like, I'd be happy to kind of tell you
- 8:24always looking for solutions. Okay, So I'll tell you a quick story when
- 8:30I was when I was dating my now wife Jazz. We were on our
- 8:35I don't know, second or third date, We're getting to know each other,
- 8:39and I decided, you know what, I'm going to take her to
- 8:41a batting cage, right like, you know, to you know, hit
- 8:45baseballs. I don't know how romantic, oh, I know, I just
- 8:48want you know. I was trying to show off. I'm pretty athletic,
- 8:50but I never played baseball. You know. I thought, oh I could
- 8:56do this. You know, I'm going to show where manly I am.
- 8:58So we go to this batting cage and again we're getting to know each other.
- 9:03And I did not know this, but my you know, now to
- 9:05be wiped. She got a full Righte scholarship for playing softball, So I
- 9:13mean she wiped the floor with me. She crushed it. Every ball she
- 9:20hit out of the bark and I can't hit a stink in baseball. It
- 9:22was so embarrassing. I had to surrender my man card. It was humiliating,
- 9:28as you're right, you see, that's what happens when you're when you
- 9:33make assumptions about the fairer sex. That's true. Yeah, I made a
- 9:37great error there. But winning the game of retirement is a lot like winning
- 9:43the game of baseball. Okay. The way you win the game of baseball
- 9:48they call it small ball, and small ball is you hit singles and doubles
- 9:52and you never strike out. It's the fundamentals, right, don't try to
- 9:56hit the home run. It's singles and doubles and never strike out. Well,
- 10:01at our firm, my personal belief is how you win the game of
- 10:05baseball is how you win the game of retirement. If you can earn five
- 10:09to seven percent net okay, so net of fees, net of you know,
- 10:13any loss, and you never strike out, you never go backwards,
- 10:18you're gonna win the game of retirement. So you don't win baseball by strikeout,
- 10:24strikeout, home run, strikeout, strikeout, strikeout, home run.
- 10:26That's not how you win. It's singles and doubles and never striking out.
- 10:30I believe in retirement as you get older, right, it's not so much
- 10:35about how much do you learn, it's how much do you not lose.
- 10:39You know Ted Betta, the founder of the four to one k he's in
- 10:41my first movie. He talks about the danger zone, which is five years
- 10:46before retirement and five years after. And if you're in that danger zone and
- 10:52you lose twenty percent he said this, I didn't say this. If you
- 10:54lose twenty percent in that danger zone, he said, you would never recover
- 10:58it. Now that's sobering because we have a beer market, or at least
- 11:03we should one out of every four or five years, right, So that
- 11:09is a big problem. So if you can are five to seven percent and
- 11:13never go backwards, you're going to win the game of retirement, just like
- 11:16you'd win the game of baseball singles and doubles, never strikeout. I'm every
- 11:20now and then you get a Grand Slam and you really clean up. So
- 11:24right, but now you got to do a little bit better because of inflation.
- 11:30Right, that's right, yep, And that is a big problem.
- 11:33And that's why for us at our firm. Okay, this is pretty unconventional,
- 11:39but when we're looking forward the next fifteen years, we're trying to factor
- 11:45in inflation, we're trying to factor in the risk of the stock market,
- 11:50okay, the stock market not performing as well as it has. We're trying
- 11:54to factor in longevity risk because this is going to be a big issue.
- 11:58In fact, the National Bureau of Economic Research, this is in twenty and
- 12:03twelve. Okay, in twenty and twelve, they came out with this report
- 12:09that fifty seven percent of single, divorce and widowed individuals will run out of
- 12:15money before they run out of life, and forty six percent of married couples
- 12:20will run out of money before they run out of life. Now it's even
- 12:22worse. It's literally one out of two. It's a coin flip, right,
- 12:26heads, you don't run out of money. Tails, you got to
- 12:30go back to work at Low's or Home Depot or Starbucks, you know,
- 12:33and have some weird boss with face tattoos and purple hair. It's brutal.
- 12:39I don't like those statistics, but the odds are stacked against us, and
- 12:43so you have to have a conservative approach when it comes to planning for your
- 12:48future. I'll give you another quick metaphor. Have you climbed Mount Everest?
- 12:54Kerrey? No, It's on my bucket list, but I'm sixty six.
- 13:00I think it's going to have to wait for the next life. Andrew gotcha,
- 13:03Okay, I haven't either. One of these days, I'm going to
- 13:05get somebody who says, yes, I didn't know this, but more people
- 13:11die going down Mount Everest than going up. Now. When I first heard
- 13:15that, I'm like, what, that doesn't make any sense. But as
- 13:18I discovered more, you know, when you're going up the mountain, you
- 13:22know you wake up early at base camp. You ate your weedies that morning,
- 13:26you've got your eye on the prize. You're excited. You get to
- 13:28the top of the mountain, you plant your flag, and this is where
- 13:31all the mistakes happen. You know, you stay up there too too long,
- 13:35you take too many selfies, you get outageing sickness, and then you're
- 13:39disoriented, you're tired, you slip on a crevass and you end up passing
- 13:45away. And the fatality rate for climbing Mount Everest is about four percent,
- 13:50which is brutal. Well, saving for your future, we'll call a retirement
- 13:54is a lot like climbing Mount Everest. When you're going up the mountain,
- 13:58Okay, this is your accumulation years, your twenties or thirties or forties or
- 14:05fifties, maybe even into your sixties. Right, you're saving money. You're
- 14:09putting it in the stock market. You're kicking butt. And it doesn't matter
- 14:13if the stock market crashes. Why because you have time to recover and time
- 14:16to recouprate. You've got a paycheck coming in. You're good. But as
- 14:20you get towards the top of the summit, this is where the mistakes happen,
- 14:26and going down the mountain. This is your decumulation years, where you're
- 14:31enjoying what you've saved and Carrie, this is where all the mistakes happen.
- 14:37And I often tell people that the shirpah quote unquote, or the financial advisor
- 14:43or the way of investing that got you up the mountain is rarely the right
- 14:48shirba or financial advisor or way of investing to get you safely down. Why
- 14:54going down the mountain takes a different skill set. You know, most people
- 14:58have financial advisors in those accumulation years, and they're good at growing your money.
- 15:03The wealth management guys, that's important. It's good, right, Maybe
- 15:07you're doing it on your own, that's awesome, But as although it's good,
- 15:11it's often incomplete on the downhill side of the mountain because there's more pieces
- 15:18of the puzzle that you've got to consider. For example, you need to
- 15:22have long term care planning. Seven out of ten people will find themselves in
- 15:26a long term care situation before they pass. What about a state planning.
- 15:31You know, you saved your whole life, you worked hard, how are
- 15:33you going to pass it on longevity risk? What if we have another lost
- 15:39decade like we did in the SMP, where if you parked one hundred thousand
- 15:43in two thousand in the SMP, you didn't see that same hundred thousand until
- 15:48twenty fourteen. That's fourteen years of lost time because we had two crises in
- 15:54there, the dot com bubble, global financial crisis. So how are you
- 15:58going to factor at all tax planning? Right? You may see a couple
- 16:03million bucks in your IRA, but the IRA is an io you to the
- 16:07irs. You don't get to keep all that money. So having a strategy,
- 16:11then we go to the lovely inflation, how are you going to keep
- 16:15up? Right? What about required minimum distributions at seventy three? Right in
- 16:22twenty thirty three, you'll jump up to seventy five. So if there's inflation
- 16:26that you're dealing with, and the market happens to be down, and then
- 16:30the irs Uncle Sam says, Carrie gets time to take out two hundred grand
- 16:34and pay taxes on it. If the market's down, you realize the loss.
- 16:40So there's going to work to the puzzle than just growing your money.
- 16:44And that's where we want to help help our clients. Okay, so how
- 16:48do we do this here? How do we get this done? How do
- 16:51I push these goals. Yes, it's a great question. So I discovered
- 16:56a strategy. This may blow you away by reading a story in the Book
- 17:02of Genesis. It's actually the story of Joseph in the Bible. Many people
- 17:07are probably familiar, whether they believe in God or not. It's a fascinating
- 17:11story. And there's five principles in that story of Joseph that we base our
- 17:18entire firmon. And you know, there's that old saying, if it's new,
- 17:22it's not true. If it's true, it's not new. This is
- 17:23thirty five hundred year old wisdom that stood the test of time. But one
- 17:27of the strategies in there, we call it this silo strategy. Okay,
- 17:33imagine if you would, that you're looking at for silos right next to each
- 17:37other. The first one on the very left is safety or emergency fund.
- 17:45Okay. The second one from the left, so the one immediately to the
- 17:48right is income, the one the third one to the right is growth,
- 17:52and the fourth one is long term care slash estate planning. Okay, we'll
- 17:56go back to the first one, and it's in order of importance from left
- 18:00to right, So safety is the most important, then income, then growth,
- 18:06then long term care slashes, stay planning with safety. On a typical
- 18:10portfolio, you want to have five to ten percent of your overall portfolio invested
- 18:15in something liquid safety, you know, checking saving these money market so to
- 18:19use round numbers, to use easy math. If you've got a million bucks,
- 18:23you want to have at least fifty to one hundred grand in a checking
- 18:26your savings account that you can get access to in a pinch. Right,
- 18:30if Fluffy gets sick, it's a big deal. The heating and air unit
- 18:33goes out, the transmission explodes, whatever, you need access to cash.
- 18:37But once that five to ten percent is good, then we go to income.
- 18:42Now again, you may be retired for thirty to forty years. Maybe
- 18:48not us guys we die early, but our spouses, right, they may
- 18:52be retired for thirty to forty years. They need an income that they can
- 18:56count on. So fifty to seventy percent of that overall portfolio is going to
- 19:02be ear art for income. Now, this could be social security. This
- 19:04could be not as well, call social insecurity, I mean talk about that
- 19:08later. But real estate, income, pensions, you know, annuities,
- 19:14whatever the case may be, is providing you at income you can count on
- 19:18fifty to seventy percent. One stat is satisfied and you can count on it
- 19:23covering your bills, your fund money, and any sort of gifts or donations,
- 19:29benevolence, whatever. Then you go to growth. Now this is going
- 19:33to vary depending upon the person and their risk tolerance. This could be ten
- 19:37to twenty percent. Okay, now this one you can be a little bit
- 19:41more risky with it because if the market crashes, it's all good. You've
- 19:45got a steady income coming in that you can count on. Right. And
- 19:48then finally long term care slash death benefit. This one varies the most depending
- 19:53upon your goals, dreams, desires, conserves, and objectives. This is
- 19:56zero to twenty percent. So safety, income, growth, and estate planning.
- 20:03When it comes to income, we want to make sure that your income
- 20:08is going to increase to help offset inflation. We want to make sure it's
- 20:12in the safest institutions in our country. We want to make sure it's got
- 20:18to proven track record and it's been around since the dinosaurs, and we want
- 20:22to make sure that no matter what happens in our economy, barring armageddon,
- 20:26that is, it is predictable, it's reliable and you can count on it.
- 20:33Once that's achieved, then the growth you can be more risky. You
- 20:37can put it in the S and P, you can put it in bitcoin,
- 20:40you can put it in high risk investments. It's okay if you see
- 20:44some fluctuation there, because you're not going to be living under a bridge because
- 20:48that income's covering everything. And then find if you have more disposable income.
- 20:52That's long term care slash of state planning. Obviously, there's many strategies that
- 20:56you can utilize, but when it comes to retirement, which is who we
- 21:00usually deal with, that is a silo strategy that we base everything upon,
- 21:07and it is bulletproof. If we provide a written down income plan, we
- 21:11factor in a one third reduction in social security. So Olivia Mitchell, who's
- 21:19the foremost expert of social security in our country and really in the world.
- 21:23Other countries have their own version of social security. They don't call it that.
- 21:27Of course, all the Nobel winning economists point to Olivia as the expert
- 21:33of experts on that program. What's her name again, Olivia Mitchell? Okay,
- 21:38and she's in my first movie, The Baby Boomer Dilemma. But Olivia
- 21:44Mitchell talks about how because of the mismanagement and bad stewardship of social security,
- 21:49which guys it is a full blown by definition Ponzi scheme. You know,
- 21:56you know Bernie Madoff does it as a high at a high level, he
- 22:00goes to prison. When you do it at a gigantic level, you get
- 22:03reelected. It's ridiculous. So social Security, because of again our demographic issue,
- 22:11they we are going to see We weren't going to see a one third
- 22:14reduction in twenty forty, well then it got bumped up to twenty thirty five.
- 22:18Now, when we filmed the movie a couple of years ago, it's
- 22:22twenty thirty four, and today it's twenty thirty three. Barring massive reform,
- 22:29we are going to see a one third reduction in social security. How is
- 22:33that going to affect everybody here? Social Security is a big piece of the
- 22:37puzzle when it comes to retirement. So one of the things that we do
- 22:41is we're going to create a Social Security stop gap fund. And what it
- 22:45does is it it's a bucket of money that you put aside, that it
- 22:48grows, It bakes in the oven at a very nice rate, typically around
- 22:52eight percent. And then if and when that happens, you can turn this
- 22:56sucker on and you will not experience any reduction in standard of living. Fact,
- 23:04in many situations you'll actually make more. So again, not to be
- 23:10mister doom and gloom Debbie Downer, but social Security is going. It's headed
- 23:15for a cliff carry and unless you know, we hope for the basketball,
- 23:18we prepare for the worst. You know, there's that old proverb A prudent
- 23:22man foresees calamity and prepares himself for it. But the simple move forward and
- 23:27get punished. And so we want to make sure that everybody's in the know,
- 23:32that they're aware, so that they can prepare. Hey, I got
- 23:34a question for you, So you know, based upon what you're saying here,
- 23:38with the Social Security, you know, a cut and I don't know
- 23:44if we cut it through inflation or they actually cut it, actually cut benefits.
- 23:48I just can't see him doing that. But I guess if you don't
- 23:51have a choice, you'd have a choice. Yeah, do you take the
- 23:55maximum you can get now? Yeah? Do you wait till you're seven in
- 24:00a few years so you get thirty percent more? It's a great question.
- 24:04I'll give you two answers. Uh to address the first portion of the question.
- 24:08There's really only three, well there's four. There's four ways they can
- 24:14solve this problem with social security. Number one, raise taxes. That's highly
- 24:19unpopular. It's a political hot potato, and so nobody, you know,
- 24:22they kick the can on this thing, right, no one. That's not
- 24:26a way to get reelected. So you get raise taxes. Number two,
- 24:30you can you can extend the full retirement age, which, by the way,
- 24:33we saw what happened when they did that in France. They about burned
- 24:37the country to the ground, right, right, that's not popular. They've
- 24:41done it. They've already done it. Though. It used to be sixty
- 24:45five. Now it's sixty six and six months, and it goes up a
- 24:48couple months every every year, right yeah, and it's actually sixty seven,
- 24:55so it's it for depending upon your age, you maybe you know sixty six
- 24:59and six months, eight months, nine months, but the full retirement age
- 25:02moving forward to sixty seven, well, they may have to bump it out
- 25:07two years to solve this problem. Well that's two years, you know,
- 25:10and most people at sixty seven don't want to wait till sixty nine. So
- 25:15they can extend for retirement age they can raise taxes, or they can lower
- 25:18cost of living adjustments, which again don't help, which they've done that as
- 25:22well. They've done that for years already. It's you know, their definition
- 25:27of inflation forget it. Yeah, so it's non key and then it's in
- 25:32arrears. Right. So we saw this with COVID when we had nine percent
- 25:37inflation at the peak and they didn't adjust the cost of living adjustments for almost
- 25:42entire year. So for a year, all of the Social Security benefits were
- 25:48being devalued in because of a nine percent quote unquote inflationary rate. And it
- 25:52wasn't until the following year that they finally got that cost of living adjustment.
- 25:56So again for that year, you kind of got that's screwed again. The
- 26:02fourth reason, before I go off on a tangent and my frustration with so
- 26:06security, the fourth way you could solve it, and it's actually a pretty
- 26:10good idea, and Donald Trump, love him or hate him, you know
- 26:14he did come up with this is you could start being a net exporter of
- 26:18oil. We have so much natural resource in America that we could actually solve
- 26:22that problem with social security and fund it by exporting oil. Drill drill,
- 26:29drill. Now, again, that's unpopular with a lot of folks, and
- 26:33it you know, who knows if that will ever happen, but it could
- 26:37solve that problem. Again, there's a lot of obstacles in the way.
- 26:41Now, that was the first my first answer. As far as practically when
- 26:45changing claim social Security, here's a really good limus test. Okay, if
- 26:52you are the quote unquote primary breadwinner, which means you make more to Social
- 26:56Security. Maybe your spouse works, but you end up making more over your
- 27:00guys' career, then it is more beneficial for you to wait until at least
- 27:07full retirement age to claim social Security. Now, your spouse, she can
- 27:14turn on her social Security and again you need an expert, you know,
- 27:18we can help you with that. But your spouse could turn it on at
- 27:21sixty two and then, depending upon how big hers is, she could actually
- 27:25get the spousal benefit, which is half of yours at sixty seven. And
- 27:30there's some strategies there. But here's the math. Okay, as long as
- 27:34you are going to live past age seventy nine, it is more beneficial for
- 27:41you to wait until full retirement age. Now, the mortality rate today in
- 27:45America for males is eighty four, and for females is eighty seven. So
- 27:52as long as you don't have a chronic illness or everybody in your family died
- 27:56in their sixties, it is better for you to wait until full retirement age.
- 28:02If you're the primary breadwinner, you end up that's the break even point.
- 28:06You end up making a lot more, not just for you, but
- 28:08for your spouse if you wait until full retirement age as the primary breadwinner.
- 28:15Now maybe you're a single individual and so you would be the primary breadwinner.
- 28:18Of course, you do want to wait until least sixty seven. You don't
- 28:23have to wait till seventy. You end up getting you know, eighty percent
- 28:26more per year from sixty seven to seventy, but you're just getting paid on
- 28:32the back end. It's no more of a big you know benefit. Sixty
- 28:34seven is the number? Okay? Interesting, Yeah, well so sixty seven
- 28:40or sixty six and whatever months, but call it sixty sixty seven. But
- 28:47if there's really a forty percent cut coming, it is this forty right,
- 28:53thirty three, Yeah, in twenty thirty that's only sixty is away now and
- 29:03right, so it's twenty thirty three, and it's a great point, Carrie.
- 29:07You know, the sentiment is, well, maybe I should turn it
- 29:10on at sixty two. You know, I paid into this for super long.
- 29:15Let's get it while the getting's good, you know. But the thing
- 29:18is is, even if we have a one third reduction, which we're planning
- 29:23on it happening. Most advisors, in fact, I've never met another advisor
- 29:27that actually I've never I've talked to dozens on this show, hundreds maybe over
- 29:33the years. No one ever said they're going to cut. Yes, well
- 29:38that's what That's one of the reasons we're different is we're factory in the worst
- 29:41case scenario, so and we prepare for it. So if it doesn't happen,
- 29:45it's rivers of gravy and retirement. But having said that, the sentiment
- 29:51can be, well, I'm going to turn this on. It's going to
- 29:53get cut by a third. Yeah, I have the benefit now, but
- 29:57if you do the math, one third of a watermelon, you know,
- 30:03a one through reduction of a watermelon is still better than a one third reduction
- 30:07of rape. Right, you still won't end up making more if you defer
- 30:11until sixty seven or four retirement age, whenever it may be for you,
- 30:15Right, I still defer that. Yeah, that's a given. You should
- 30:19always defer. But the real question is do you take it sixty seven or
- 30:25do you take it at seventy and get the thirty percent benefit? And if
- 30:30we assume that you are correct, all right, and we have no reason
- 30:34not to because it's obvious to many of you out there that this is in
- 30:40fact coming here, right, If we are in fact the ten year is
- 30:47going to take a one third hit. The question is, and you're going
- 30:51to be assuming you're going to live longer than ten years, you could get
- 30:55your full retirement now or wait three years? What's worth it? That's the
- 31:00question. Well, and this is where the stakes are not so high.
- 31:03As long as you made it to full retirement age. It's preference. Right.
- 31:07So if you're still working, as an example, and you've got a
- 31:11bunch of money coming in and you don't want to get taxed on the Social
- 31:14Security because by the way you're going to you can get taxed on your Social
- 31:18Security and come up to eighty five percent of whatever Social Security pays you,
- 31:23so you get double tax. It's a joke, it's ridiculous. So if
- 31:26you want to defer that, if you're making six figures, multiple six figures.
- 31:30You know your spouse is, you know, still working. Maybe you
- 31:34don't need it. Yeah, I defer it. That's fine, but it's
- 31:37not it's not going to make or break the overall equation. You made it
- 31:41till full repowerment age. If you want to turn it on, would you
- 31:44benefit from it? Would it provide more peace of mind? Great? You
- 31:48know you have the green light for me because at least you made it to
- 31:51full retirement age. Beyond that, that's more preference. Yeah, all right,
- 31:57all right, Well, hey, wech covered a lot of it early
- 32:00here. Andrew really appreciate your insights mind. Why don't you tell us where
- 32:05we find you, how we connect with you on the web. Yeah.
- 32:08So, I actually have an offer for every listener. If you go to
- 32:12No More Losingmoney dot com No More Losing Money dot Com, you can get
- 32:17access to three out of four of my books. Uh, and then you
- 32:22also have access to one of my movies, The Retirement Deception, which is
- 32:25a wonderful film. It goes over the story of my mom and many others
- 32:30across the country who have obtained the retirement of their dreams. There's no actors,
- 32:35there's no lines, we fed anybody. It's just good people like you
- 32:37and me who are living a dream and what they did to obtain that retirement.
- 32:42So no more losing money dot com or you can check on my website
- 32:45at Retirement Renegade dot com. Retirement Renegade dot com. All right, hey,
- 32:52Andrew, one other thing. Real estate. Yes, housing crisis exactly
- 32:59when we're talking retirement, that is going to be people's largest asset generally.
- 33:05Yeah, hopefully you've had a mortgage for a while, you paid it down
- 33:08or you bought it for cash when it was really cheap, and now at
- 33:13the latest housing price inflation, presumably the value of your home's really gone up.
- 33:19Yes, what do you do with that? When? Do you like
- 33:22get rid of the house? Yeah? Downsize and is it worth it if
- 33:25you've got to get a mortgage anyway? Now? Well, also, I'll
- 33:29tell you this, I am a gigantic fan of real estate. I am
- 33:32buying as much as I possibly can. We bought about five and a half
- 33:37million bucks in real estate last year. We'll buy twenty more renolds this year.
- 33:42Huge fan because it's a tangible asset that typically keeps up with inflation.
- 33:46Now where I'm at in the Nashville area. This is a booming area,
- 33:52a booming area, and so that demand is driving prices up. As far
- 33:58as when you're retired and let's see, you're sitting on a ton of equity.
- 34:01You know, that's a complicated conversation. You know, most people in
- 34:06my area the average house is one to one and a half million, and
- 34:10so most and most people have it completely paid off. So it's like,
- 34:15well, you could downsize, but where youre going to go, right?
- 34:17I mean, we live at such an amazing area. Maybe you drive an
- 34:22hour into town and you buy a house for four hundred grand and you pocket
- 34:25the million. You could do that. But wealth is really built on holding.
- 34:30It's it's it's long term holding. You know, even even renolds,
- 34:36which most retirees you know have dabbled with at some point in their life.
- 34:40You don't make money on the cash flow. Typically, that just allows you
- 34:44to hold on to it for longer. The money eOne else to pay the
- 34:47debt if there is any debt, right, that's right. But the real
- 34:52wealth builder is holding it so that it can accumulate. You know, in
- 34:55our area, real estate's accumulating at eight to ten percent, which is unbelievable.
- 35:00You're going to beat inflation there so, but if it if it keeps
- 35:06up, that's the big if, right, Yes, yes, but I'm
- 35:09a huge fan of real estate. Okay, Hey, we'll leave it at
- 35:13that. Ah kl at Carrie LUTs dot com. If you have any questions,
- 35:17link to Andrews sites in the show notes to this interview on Financial Survival
- 35:22Network dot com. Please sign up for your free newsletter Andrew really a pleasure.
- 35:28We're going to have you back. You're on our list as a retirement
- 35:30Expert extraordinaire and we'll talk to you again real soon. Thank you, Thank
- 35:36you, thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to
- 35:42today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com.
- 35:46Financial Survival Network now more than ever.